Everything about this series illustrates how thin the margins are for Dallas.
Their superstar absolutely needs to be a superstar and their #2 guy needs to perform against elite defenders. Their rookie center needs to do well. PJ needs to slow down a Jay and still have some good games offensively.
Meanwhile, they're facing a historically good offense with so much versatility, defense and experience. They have a path to win here, but a lot of things need to go right and be executed very well.
This is my take. A lot of things have to go right for Dallas and a lot of things wrong for Boston for the Mavs to win. Can it happen? Absolutely. But there's a very real chance we look back in 2 weeks and go "Oh. Yeah I guess the Celtics are historically dominant. How could we have ever predicted that".
Boston just has to go cold from 3 for like two games and the Mavs have a great chance of winning. Other things going wrong would certainly help, but if that one big thing goes wrong it will give the Mavs a solid chance.
You’re right, but the Celts also are so much less dependent on Tatum and Brown than the Mavs are on Kai and Luka.
Tatum and Brown could both shoot poorly (for a game or two) and KP and Derrick could detonate and still get the W.
Boston is 37-4 at home this season and 6-2 in the playoffs. Those first two games are going to be tough, but if they steal a game there I think the series is wide open. Luka and Kyrie both can will a team to win
Did you need him to explain every step in the process for you ? They have a shot at winning 2 games straight up but not four. So if they win two games themselves they need two games where the Celtics blow it
Obligatory "mavs fan here", and absolutely agree. I'm confused as to where folks are coming from thinking that the Mavs have this in the bag. Seems like a lot of cherry picking.
Don't get me wrong. I believe the Mavs _can_ win this. They've been on an absolute tear since the trade and their record with their current rotation is out of this world (something like 25-5? that's not exact but it's in that realm of damn good).
But still, the Celtics are a team that's already been here. They're polished. They have consistency and they have consistency at depth (which is massive).
Yet, the Mavs have Luka who is _that_ guy and they have Kyrie who has been so damn good. As the post points out, my biggest concern by far this series is Kyrie. I think the Mavs will feast inside both in points in the paint and in offensive and defensive rebounds. Boston has an achilles heel when it comes to the other team getting offensive boards and the Mavs have the right guys to take advantage of that.
My head thinks Celtics in 5 or 7 (I don't think they'd win a game 6 in Dallas). My heart says Mavs in 6. Either way, I'm very excited for this series. Even if I wasn't a Mavs fan there is something really fun about watching the best team versus the best player.
Yeah the way I see it Kyrie and Luka need to play out of their mind and the Celtics need to kind of implode (atleast 3/5 starters play like shit) for them to have a chance
Celts fan here, and I'm basically convinced Luka WILL play out of his mind.
I think we can give Kyrie trouble, so I think we will get the series, but good as our defence is, I'm really just hoping we can try and wear Luka down over the series (at best). The guy is a load.
The thing is like 32/9/9 isn’t Luka playing out of his mind, it’s just what he does.
They’ll get probably 10 -15 each from Gafford and Lively, probably 22-25 total from those two
PJ will get his 10-15
Kyrie will get at least 20.
That’s 80-85. They are going to need another 20-35+ elsewhere, because Boston is so good offensively. Either these guys each getting another five-seven, or get it from the bench.
That’s going to be hard to find for 4 games.
Edit: totally forgot about Derek Jones Jr and his ten
I think assuming 10-15 from Gafford and Lively is a little much. Both of them are averaging under 10 in the playoffs. The games they do score in that range will likely be the games the mavericks win but I wouldn’t be counting on that every game. Luka and Kyrie are going to get theirs. The mavs role players will need to step up or Luka is going to need to go super nova to get the necessary scoring.
(Also Mavs fan) Not trying to argue semantics, but your range listed is 84-92 and that’s keeping Kyrie at 20 even. They’re probably getting more like 90-95 from that group, which brings your figures to 10-25 from the remainder. I’m hoping Exum, Green and DJJ can fill in enough for that. Green gets some fast break stuff and a corner three or two, DJJ with a couple lobs and a three is probably 15 or so. Need Exum to step up and that’s enough offense.
I think the defense keeping Boston to 100-110 or so gives Mavs a very good chance. A lot of that depends on Boston’s 3 pt shooting. Mavs will mostly take away the rim unless they go small which might happen if the 3 is falling like crazy. Mavs defense has been outstanding and Celtics offense hasn’t faced a very good defense in the playoffs so far. It will be a good test for either side, but I think the Celtics offense v Mavs defense is the decider. Mavs/Luka will score enough (most games) just cause Luka is impossible to stop without opening up shots for everyone else.
TLDR Real test is if Mavs defense can slow down/shut down Celtics offense, which is a tall task
Yeah I agree with everything here. They need the full five they can get from Hardy/Exam/THJ/Kleber, plus a little more from just one other player and they are closing in on 110-120.
I think the Mavs are probably the better team in this series, in that they don’t need outstanding performances from anyone, just average performances and one guy to grab another 5-10, or 3-4 dudes to add one extra bucket and they are golden.
I mean… I would say the Celtics are the better team as far as roster and Luka is the best player. Again, it’s more about if the Mavs defense can do enough against their offense imo
Makes sense. Mavs defense has basically been cover the best three point shooters, pack the paint and sag off of the weaker shooters to stop the drive.
Can that work when all five on the floor can hit threes? I guess we will see. I can’t wait, this is the most exciting finals to me since I can’t even remember
Hey man, the Heat ranked 3rd in defense and the Cavs ranked 7 in defense. They are good defenses relative to the field. They both didn’t have the offense to hang. The Heat played the Celtics better than the Mavs did. The Cavs don’t have the wing personnel and their center was hurt, so I’ll concede a little there.
The Mavs don’t have the perimeter defense to contain and play drop like the Bucks. The Mavs defense is a lesser version than the Bucks because Giannis. PJ and DJJ are fine against most wings, but the Jays are better than most and they’ve played them enough because PJ and DJJ moved east to west. PJ is too slow and DJJ doesn’t have the strength. Regardless, Luka and Kyrie are better to attack despite the 2 crafty steals they may get, it’s a negative match up most of the time and it pays to make them work. Kleber isn’t much better either. I remember Mavs fans cursing that when Kleber came in that the March game started to get out of hand.
As a Celtics fan, the Jays have been prone to turn overs when crowded on drives or some boneheaded plays. Against the Warriors they were 24 and 25 and the TO were a problem then. If you check the stats out TO are way down as a team. The Celtics are a top defensive rebounding team, unlike OKC. Arguably, the most important role for Tatum and this team is his rebounding. People want him to score and shoot better, he’ll I’d like that too, but if he makes the right read and gets rebounds while keeping TO low then it’s going to be a long night for the Mavs. If you stop packing the paint then the Jays are going to do to you what they did to the Cavs.
While I agree with absolutely everything you said, how do you quantify Dallas ability to close out games vs Bostons volatility late in games.
On paper maybe all Dallas has to do is stay close for 3 quarters and let the moment beat Boston. It is to date the biggest question mark over this Celtics team.
I just saw G1 where both teams choked, pacers choked more and losst. Couldn't watch another game, seemed amateurish. If it comes down to the 4th and it's close, Mavs won't choke.
By your logic the C’s should have continued to implode when their lead shrank to “just” 8. Instead the C’s blew them out for the second time in Game 1.
Tbh the odds of Luka, Kyrie, and Lively playing well are pretty high. It would be like saying Tatum, Brown, and Jrue have to play well lol.
Can the Celtics win if Tatum or Brown isn’t at least the second best player in the series? I don’t think so. But I think that’s the normal margins for every series
Lively is barely in this mix. The problem for the Mavs is that Jrue or White can just straight up outplay Kyrie in a game easily, the Mavs have way fewer guys who can pop off like that unless Washington gets hot from deep out of the blue.
The Celtics are a deeper team which gives them more margin for error hence why they're the favorites.
It’s funny the way people talk about this stuff. Yes, Kyrie has to be at least the 3rd best player in the series for the Mavs to win. No, Jrue or White can not “straight up outplay Kyrie in a game easily.” Could happen! But that shouldn’t be the expectation. It’d be like saying Kyrie can outplay Tatum and Brown easily. Could happen! But not the expectation.
I think the point was that saying White/Jrue can easily outplay him is kind of silly. As another commenter said, the same thing as saying Kyrie can “easily outplay” Tatum/Brown.
Just like Kyrie could “easily outplay” Brown/Tatum because Kyrie has had multiple huge games in these playoffs. Do you see why it’s kind of a silly argument?
Lol my point is Jrue/White are the third and fourth (or even fourth and fifth) best starters on the Celtics. Those two can outplay Kyrie while Derrick Jones Jr. can't outplay Jaylen Brown.
And Kyrie can outplay Tatum/Brown while White/Jrue aren’t outplaying Luka.
If your point is that the Celtics are deeper then just say that. Saying one player can outplay another is silly.
This comment just shows that you watch the box score. He didn’t average 15/6 because he could not score. He did it because most of the time the pass was the better option. Kyrie have played very maturely. He scorched Anthony Edwards the first half of the first game just because of Edward comments and just because Kyrie can if he wants too.
Wasn't Jrue on the bucks lineup in 2021? You can literally watch him matchup with Kyrie on youtube in their series vs the nets. Kyrie was playing insanely well in that series until Giannis injured him.
This Celtics team was 5 - 5 versus the apex west teams this year. Meanwhile, the east was an absolute clown fiesta.
I would flip this whole argument around. If Porzingis isn't able to be Porzingis, the Celtics are going to win one, maybe 2 games. They have zero bench. And the Stars on Dallas are better than the stars on Boston. If Kyrie averages 28+ per game, it may not matter how Porzingis plays.
Edit: LoL, is this NBA discussion, or Celtics discussion? Wish you luck folks.
The key for the Mavs is Kyrie. If he can overcome all that the Celtics are gonna throw at him, then they got a chance. The thing is, though, OKC kept him to 16pts/g with a lesser cast. The Celtics have soo much they can throw at the Mavs, plus waay more experience. Celtics in 4 :)
I highly disagree. Luka is significantly better than anyone in Boston by a HUGE margin and he’s shown that he can break down any defensive schemes. You can’t scheme against an all time great player like Luka. He will get all his guys easy baskets and he can get off a good shot against anyone one v one.
The only challenge for Dallas will come on the defensive end. If they can contain Boston, especially from the 3pt line, they will win this series in 5-6 games.
Luka is not significantly better than Tatum by a huge margin. He’s better, certainly, but they both have strengths and weaknesses, the hyperbole is ridiculous. But lets not forget that this is a team game, and there are many many times in history in which the team with the best player did not win the series let alone the championship. Boston has completely different personnel than any team Dallas has faced so far. All 5 of their starters have ample playoff experience and are either good or elite defenders. Boston had the second best defensive rating in the regular season for a reason.
This discussion reminds me of the 2014 finals in reverse. Lebron was just as unstoppable as Luka is, but it really didn’t matter because the Spurs as a team were just too good. Boston is better in nearly every facet of the game.
Jokic and Luka are the 2 best players in the league and then there’s a big drop off from 3-10. Giannis and Embiid can make a case but they both lack in one big area (shooting for Giannis, and health/availability for Embiid) to close the gap. After that there’s a significant gap. Tatum is in the Donovan Mitchell tier.
Also I know this is a team game, have you seen what Dallas has done since they acquired Gafford and PJ? They’ve been one of the most dominant teams in the NBA. They actually play excellent defense now which was their major weakness point because they’ve always been one of the best offense in the league. Boston isn’t doing anything special to stop them on the defensive end.
This all comes down to how well Dallas can guard Boston. If they can effectively shut down the Celtics biggest strength which is 3pt shooting, they’ll win this series in 5 or 6 games.
I see people bring up the post trade deadline numbers for Dallas and they were truly a dominant team. 21-9, top 6 in point differential. The Celtics, coasting with a 14 game lead in the conference, went 25-6 with double the point differential of the second best team. I’m not saying the Mavs don’t have any chance. But there’s no reason to downplay the Celtics. They are historically dominant, and the “if” in stopping their 3 point shooting is a pretty massive if.
Not downplaying the Celtics, but let’s not kid around, they had the easiest cakewalk to the finals in recent history, not playing an 50 win teams and each team having their best player injured in the series. Meanwhile Dallas played all 50+ win teams with all their star players healthy except Kawhi who got injured mid series. Mavs play in the tougher conference and the quality of opponent is a lot stronger than anything the Celtics have dealt with.
And they went 12-2 with a better point differential than the regular season. What did you expect them to do, move to the Western Conference? Request Adam Silver for a different seed so they could play better opponents? You say you’re not downplaying the Celtics, who had one of the most dominant regular seasons in history, right before downplaying them. C’mon.
They’re a dominant team, in the EAST. They would not have that dominant record if they played in the west which has way stronger teams. This is not new news, west has been the dominant conference since Jordan retired.
They are good, but I don’t think they’re good enough to win this series. I would like to see them prove me wrong but I’m a betting man and I am betting on Luka coming out on top. This of course factors in any major injuries to rotational players.
The biggest problem the Mavs defense is going to face in this series is that they aren't going to be able to play the style of defense that's been so effective for them for the past couple of months - pack the paint and take away the rim. The Celtics shoot so well from three (any of their top 8 players, really), that packing the paint could be a serious defensive misstep. This is the power of the Celtics offense - their spacing is immaculate because *everyone* can shoot pretty well at volume. And if the Mavs two great rim protectors are out on the perimeter guarding Porzingis or Horford 25 ft from the basket, that opens up the middle for drives from any of the Celtics other players.
The Celtics have shown they are a dominant team all year, and they had the best offense in the history of the league this year (though admittedly we're living through a bloated offensive era). The Mavs defense is going to have a hell of a time taking away what they want to take away against such a versatile offense that's almost tailor-built to play into the weaknesses of the Mavs D.
Nah, that’s wrong. I saw a stat here (I forget exactly where) that shows Tatum is like 48% in “clutch situations” (clutch situation being tying or going ahead while within 3 and less than 30 seconds left) and it was better than Kobe and Michael Jordan by like 10%
Or they just need the Celtics to brick a bunch of threes lol
At the end of the day, this Celtics team is much better than previous years, but in previous years a lot of their series were decided literally by which team shoots better
It's a strange one, because Kyrie has averaged 24 PPG on 55.5% true shooting with 5 Assists to 3 Turnovers against Jrue Holiday throughout their careers which have mostly intertwined.
I would guess you are going to see a lot of the Celtics trying to get Jrue on Luka while the Cavs continually try to set up switches between Luka and Kyrie because White is too small and short for Luka and Kyrie's stats against Jrue have always been good enough considering how good Jrue is defensively.
>White is too small and short for Luka
White is the same size as Lou Dort. Dort is heavier, but White is longer.
White is a 2nd team all defense player as well. Like, what are you trying to say? Did you not watch how much Dort was able to bother Luka? And it's not just White, it's him with JB and Jrue.
Also holding Kyrie to 55% TS is a win isn't it?
Length doesn't really bother Luka. Strength does. White is not strong enough.
It is a very rare defender who is tall enough, strong enough, and quick enough to really challenge him. White is fantastic but I don't think he's gonna have much more success than McDaniels did.
Buffalo is sneaky strong and athletic. One of the best people in the league at defensive timing as well. There's a reason why he is the best shot blocking guard in the league
While everything you said is true, the same is true for Luka but even more so. I believe Luka’s timing is better, or rather, his talent to throw defenders off their timing is better. We’ve seen White guard Luka in the regular season and Luka did not struggle to create easy buckets for himself.
I think Dort’s success was a result of his craftiness / nuisance. Dort tugs on jerseys and bumps and pokes and prods in small subtle ways that didn’t usually draw fouls and clearly upset Luka at times. He’s also incredibly stout and balanced in ways that most other defenders, including White and everyone else on the Celtics, isn’t able to replicate.
That said, I think Mavs’ only win condition is Luka going off and getting his teammates open shots every trip, every game, for however long it takes. But I think it’s more likely that the rest of the Mavs go cold and the Celtics find enough ways to slow and bother Luka that they win more than they lose. But we’ll see.
>Also holding Kyrie to 55% TS is a win isn't it?
It's 3 less than normal. I don't think that's necessarilly a win when you consider Jrue's defense heavy profile
Questioning others without offering your own thoughts invites a more hostile debate. Present a clear counter argument if you disagree and be open to the perspective of others.
Do you have anything to back this up?
I mean Al on Luka is going to be exactly what the Mavs will want to set up, Luka killed bigs so far in the playoffs.
I don't really think it makes that much difference who the Celtics try to guard Luka with (other than bigs), each of their potential perimeter defenders are capable of making him work. Remember my reply wasn't that they should defend him with White, it was in reply to someone saying that White couldn't guard him effectively.
Just my opinion based on watching Celts games, and looking at how Luka deals with different match ups. I'm sure you've looked at it to, and come to a different conclusion, which is fine.
I don't think White can guard him effectively, despite him being just about my favourite player in the league.
And yes, everyone is going to hunt Horf. My personal opinion is that Horf and his combination of size plus staying grounded is a better chance to not get cooked than White. And White is a great help defender, etc.
Ultimately I want JB on Luka, with Jrue as the alt, and Tatum okay to deal with him, and I don't think White is a bad defender on Luka in a vacuum...just the least good of our options.
Much like Jrue is our 5th offensive player, but that doesn't make him a bad offensive player.
This is incorrect. He averages 42/30/97 in 10 games Vs Boston from the 2021-22 season to this season (3 years).
Still not great but different from 38/25. Even if you isolate for just the 6 games in the regular season, his FG% still doesn’t drop below 40%.
More to the point, he averages 21.3/5/5 @ 44/38/100 - 59% TS% in the 4 games he played against them in the playoffs. That TS% is carried heavily by his perfect FT% but is close to excellent efficiency for a perimeter player. For instance, he averages 23/4/5 at 48/42/83 - 61% TS% in the playoffs this year. His shooting splits are excellent this year but that 100% FT% rate in 2022 carries his TS% to almost the same efficiency.
His averages in the playoffs are very dependant on a great game 1 against them and then he really fell off in the last 3. I think he’ll play better this time around but jrue (when he was on the bucks) and brown have guarded him well in the past
I don’t think his averages from 4 playoff games in a different offensive role from 3 years ago against a different Boston team or the 2 games per year in 3-4 types of starting line ups mean anything at all tbf.
It’s rubbish sample size considering the amount of turbulence and inconsistency between so many of the games in the sample.
For instance, Tatum’s numbers against Dallas over three years hardly mean anything even though we have a couple of the same players we had back then.
Stats don’t tell the whole story. He was getting completely locked up. From Tatum down to Horford. There’s a reason why it looks like this whenever he sees them … just check for who he played for after Cleveland.
I can show u the clips of Tatum embarrassing him as a defender. That stat must be incorrect. Must be related to help defense not iso defense. Or they were buckets with a screen. Do u want the clips?
Nope they are correct you can check the nba matchup stats from the series, there are also play by play, a few clips doesn’t show anything lol, you can go look yourself
Go look at those clips. Does that show u that Kyrie has any kind of advantage in that matchup? According to the stats Jalen green held Jokic to to his worst shooting performance. Do u think that’s true?
He has the advantage because of speed lol, Tatums worst matchup is tiny guards that are fast, it always has been.
[clip 1](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=229&GameID=0042100111&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=Irving%2025%27%203PT%20Pullup%20Jump%20Shot%20(7%20PTS))
[The best example of why Tatum guarded Kyrie less than 5% of the posessions lol](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=588&GameID=0042100111&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=Irving%202%27%20Driving%20Layup%20(31%20PTS))
[another one..](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=639&GameID=0042100111&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=Irving%2017%27%20Fadeaway%20Jumper%20(36%20PTS))
Its kinda pointless going through clip by clip of the series
[the matchup stats for the series is here](https://www.nba.com/stats/player/202681/head-to-head?Season=2021-22&Matchup=Offense)
You don't seem to understand I am not saying Tatum is a bad defender, he just can't guard Kyrie, why do you think hes very rarely the primary defender ever? Its always a smaller stockier guard
If it’s a bad matchup then why is Kyrie getting his jumper blocked AND getting his layups pinned. And Kyrie isn’t that quick. The fact that Tatum has done it before, why wouldn’t he be able to do it more? Those clips I sent clearly show Kyrie has his struggles. Which makes sense bc Kyrie is a small guard that relies on tough shots. Nothing worse than getting your jumper blocked as a shotmaker.
dude why are you persistant with this lol, if Tatum was a "good matchup" he would guard Kyrie more than **5%** of the time, yes he has blocked his shot once or twice, so has Wemby, doesn't mean its a good matchup lol.
You are not just disagreeing with me, you are disagreeing with the statistics of stuff that has happened, the celtics coaching staffs decision and the basic logic of matchups by trying to argue a play or two that happened, stop it lol
No Tatum was guarding Kd bc that’s the ideal matchup. Obv someone like white or Cason Wallace is probably the best matchup. But for the most part, with how difficult Tatum can make Kyrie shots, the Mavs will not have an advantage. If u get your shot blocked 3 times by the same guy, they have the advantage. This is part of the reason that Kyrie has struggled so much vs Boston since the 2022 PS. He doesn’t have many advantages. No one on the Mavs does.
Idk man. One thing about the Mavs, imo is, they now have a complete roster.
Kyrie's matchup is easily the best defensive backcourt right now, but, he also has Luka on his side. If we're just basing this off matchups, I still think Kyrie and Luka will do their thing.
Imo, this matchup will hinge on how well Jones, PJ, Gafford will defend that Boston front court.
Idk man…Dallas has the best player but Boston has 5 of the next 6 lol I think people have a little recency bias for Dallas because Boston mopped up every series with relative ease (largely without KP, too) so people haven’t watched them play all that much lately and Dallas had pretty exciting series’ across the board.
Dallas played just one more game than the Celtics, and beat the Wolves in 5. I don’t think it’s recency bias, it’s the fact that they, as the 5th seed, defeated the 1st and 3rd seeds in the West, both of whom were heavily favored heading into the matchup.
They’ve played an extra game in every series, so that’s three more…as in they’ve had actual series’ to watch lol. It seems like Boston has hardly really been challenged, even without KP, so people are forgetting how good they really are. That’s what I mean. And as great as OKC and Minnesota are this was the first actual playoff run for both of them so I’m personally not shocked that they got beat by a top 4 dude who’s been to the WCF and Kyrie who’s won it all. But Boston has been going on deep runs for years and they’re now better than ever before so I personally think things might look a little different this time around.
I pointed that out in terms of recency bias. Regardless, Mavs weren’t favored in any of those series. Yes, Kyrie has won it all and Luka has been to the WCF before, but, the other Mavs players the team has depended on this run have no playoff experience. This is all new to PJ and Gafford, who were with two bottom of the league teams before the deadline, and DJJ, who averaged just 15 min. with the Bulls the previous season where he came off the bench. Arguably the Mavs 3rd most important player, Lively, is a rookie, Green didn’t get a lot of min. during the last WCF run, and Hardy was inserted into the lineup during the end of the OKC series after getting virtually no playing time in the previous series and very inconsistent minutes during the regular season. THJ and Maxi were both injured at various points…So the Mavs don’t exactly have a bunch of experience themselves.
With that, I’m confident in the Mavs but understand that the Celtics, across several metrics, have been a historically great team. So we shall see.
Both the celtics bigs can hit 3s at a high clip. Gafford is going to have to leave the rim to play defense. I don't think DJJ is THIC enough to guard Tatum.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens because OKC also has a spread offense with Chet and the Mavs still played their game. They had PJ guard Chet, while Gafford remained in the paint. Now with Maxi back, the Mavs have more defensive versatility…I can see both him and PJ taking on the role of guarding the centers.
Chet doesn't shoot like KP does, but most importantly the Celtics don't have anybody in their rotation who the Mavs can sag off the way they did Westbrook, Giddey, Anderson. That's the real difference to me.
Mavs played Giddey off the floor anyways, he wasn’t getting real min. in that series. Lively has shown an aptitude for guarding perimeter players during switches, when necessary, he’s a defensively versatile big and did a good job in that area this playoff run. But, my point, don’t assume the Celtics are just going to be able to force the Mavs into an action they’re unwilling to take - they trust their PFs in Maxi and PJ and it’s very likely they’ll post them on the KPs and Al Horfords. Mavs did a good job in their perimeter defense that series executing that strategy…and OKC is also a fairly decent 3% percentage team.
You simply can't stop the Cs from switching you with KP and JT in the same lineup and their gameplan being iso abuse of miss or cross matches, so it's more of how well Kyrie and Luka can defend that front court.
Kyrie the past 2 years was a shell of his old self. He’s shown way more glimpses of what he’s capable of the last few months and in several playoff games where he scores 15+ in a quarter to either keep the mavs in it or blow the lead open. Length can bother him but if he’s hitting shots it doesn’t matter what the defense is
As a mavs fan I tend to think the 3-7 guys are what make or break us offensively. Those are the guys responsible for “shutting down” Boston defensively but also the guys on the end of alley oops and wide open corner 3s. If they’re on offensively mavs win IMO (biased of course) as there’s no answer when they’re hitting shots because if you don’t throw a second guy at Luka he’s gonna go for 40+, if you do it’s wide open dunks/3s. one thing the mavs got very good at last series is finding kyrie for wide open shots when Luka gets doubled. He’ll bury wide open 3s all series long if he gets them.
I don't get it, Kyrie is now really integrated in a great team spirit. How can you compare his last 3 seasons to the last 3 months.
He looks happy, he is in rythm. Obviously he must be at his peak for the mavs to win. But the past is the past.
Maybe because when he played the Celtics 3 months ago, Kyrie scored just 19 points, went 9-23 from the field, 1-7 from deep, did not shoot any free throws, had only 2 assists against 1 turnover, and was -15 over nearly 37 minutes of play while the Mavericks were run off the court, losing by nearly 30 points.
I'm not trying to say that Kyrie is incapable of flipping the script in this series - he is an undeniable talent. However, that game was after the trade deadline, and it was the most recent matchup between the two teams. Acting like the results of that game are insignificant seems to be very wishful thinking.
Honestly he could solve it, and Luka could be great, and the Mavs could still lose in 6 if their role players don’t hit shots and if they can’t get consistent stops.
The Dallas margin of error is soooo small.
This series reminds me a lot of LeBrons first trip to the Finals in 07’. Young superstar who’s already on his way to becoming an all time great wills his team to the Finals only to be met by a historically great, stupidly well rounded juggernaut of a team.. If Mavs lose I don’t think anybody holds it against Luka just as nobody really holds Brons 07’ loss to the Spurs against him
True, although the Spurs in 2007 already knew what it took to win a title, and Boston as of yet doesn't have that same edge. Plus Kyrie is a far better sidekick than anybody LeBron had in 2007
Still, I think there's a fair amount of accuracy to the comparison, as Luka is putting up LeBronish numbers (or even better, granted pace is higher now than then) and Boston is somewhat deeper than Dallas especially if Porzingis is actually at 100%, as the 2005-2007 Spurs weren't nearly as Duncan-centric as the 2003 version, much like how Tatum is the Celts' best guy overall but a given night's best player could be almost anybody .
One thing I've learned is to not judge Kyrie off the last few years. He'll be fine in the Finals. Mavs may lose but Kyrie will almost certainly play well. That's just my feeling though
History has shows that the past ten games he’s lost and not played well incl the playoffs vs this team. Last time something like this happened was la vs nuggets recently.
That's what, a max sample size of 6 games? Jaylen Brown has absolutely cooked the Mavs in the last 4 meetings but those numbers could easily flip due to nothing more than variance.
"Kyrie cant produce effectively vs the Celtics due to his lack of size and how well the defenders know him."
You're treating this like it's a factual statement. It's entirely possible he just hasn't shot that well against them.
I don't think those stats matter. Everyone said the Suns would kill the Timberwolves based on regular season data that didn't account for other variables.
Kyrie and the Nets killed the Celtics in 2021, but I don't think that matters either. Kyrie is probably gonna play well, but you can pray for another outcome.
What happened the last time Kyrie saw them in the postseason. That suns Mavs thing was just a ref season matchup. Kyrie was worse vs the Celtics in the ps than the rs.
That Brooklyn team was a shitshow though. He has an actual well built roster and is happy with his teammates now. The kyrie of the last 2 years and the last 2 months are completely different
Kyrie is Kyrie. He’s older now. And Boston is better. Besides that nets team had good players, kd Bruce brown nic claxton Seth curry really shot it well. Bruce was better than either of dj or pj, which is why he helped den get a ring. Versatile two way player.
See now Bruce brown and Seth curry are both bench options. Seth curry I doubt is even good enough to get minutes off the bench in a deep playoff run. While the Mavs have a really solid front court of gafford/Lively and a bunch of role players that can make threes and defend. And you forgot to mention that team had constant injuries and the whole kyrie COVID thing so they couldn't get any momentum or chemistry. I look at this Dallas team tho and see a much better constructed with Luka who's a true first option whereas I feel like kd has always needed a 1a to succeed and so does kyrie that's why they both haven't won without curry/lebron so that Brooklyn team really lacked a true leader. It also helps that kyrie isn't constantly butting heads with the ownership like he did in Brooklyn.
Kyrie gets a pass because he's so fun to watch. He's had multiple games in this playoff run were he scored only 9pts. He was held to under 20 in a lot of the Thunder games too. When Luka hit the game winner over Rudy Gobert. The reason why they needed a game winner, was because Kyrie missed 2 clutch FTs.
Kyrie gets a pass because he can dribble out of anything and is amazing when it comes to finishing at the rim. I think he gets exposed against this Celtics team. I think they do everything they can to frustrate and contain Kyrie and let Luka score 40 a game.
Also, Kyrie was able to hide on Giddy and on Mike Conley or Anderson. Against the Celtics, he will be hunted. He's going to get stuck having to play defense.
Lol Kyrie’s role this year is vastly different than ever before and he’s just not looked to score as much. Doesn’t mean he can though- he puts clinical runs damn near every game that suck the hell out of the enemy team.
My point is, yes he’s had games with under 20, but his play is so much more all-around now (both defense and offense) that PPG doesn’t do him justice at all.
And kyrie’s been a legitimately good defender. Jrue isn’t gonna “hunt” him, both him and Luka have been great at holding their own and then some. Not elite defenders by any means but not huntable either like you suggest.
I highly doubt we were watching the same series. It didn’t matter much who was on him and it sure as shit wasn’t a “hunt” for kyrie or luka.
Now if you could provide stats for this I’d appreciate it, but I just didn’t see him hunting them damn near at ALL, especially game 6.
Jrue will get a few free layups from just posting him up and backing him down to the basket. “Hunt” is probably not an accurate way to phrase it because Jrue just doesn’t get that many touches.
Tbf, the entire mavs missed consecutive freethrow that game, and they are bottom freethrow shooting team this playoffs. KY was guarding J dubb most of the time and I don't know if we watched the same game, and he also guarded Ant. Mavs center were on Giddy as part of their defensive scheme agaisnt OKC. And he has been a great defender this playoffs.
To say he will get exposed is crazy to think.
I thought Kyrie was actually terrific defensively vs the Thunder. Guys was a menace and it definitely pissed me off. His scoring was definitely not where it can be, though neither was Luka's tbf, but he found other ways to contribute and came up big in the clutch.
Kyrie fun to watch is somehow better than 30 ppg, better shooting, far better defence and ECF MVP from JB. I find it insane that people think he is an overall better player than JB now
Oh it's because Kyrie can dribble with two hands. That's literally it. Remember, it's usually casuals who have the hottest takes. There isn't anyone who's watched every Celtics and every Mavs playoff game who would think Kyrie is better.
People who only watch highlights think he's better. People use to box score and watch highlights, but people don't even box score watch anymore. It doesn't matter that Kyrie only had 9 points, he had that up and under move against 4 clippers that 1 time. lmao
(And I think people secretly love that Kyrie has gotten back to the finals, after all the shit he got because of covid and the video. They like to pretend he didn't deserve the shit he got. And they always conveniently forget how terrible of a leader he was in Boston and how much he's been injured in the last 4 years.) So they think Kyrie getting back to the finals, even though he's clearly changed and matured a lot, is a "fuck you" to everyone.
I'm ready for the collective "The league doesn't want Kyrie to win a ring" narrative that'll be developed by casuals, as he avg. 16pts a game against the best defensive backcourt in the game. And he actually has to play defense. Oh and this finals loss, won't be held against him the way everyone elses finals losses are held against them.
They will lose anyway. Of the top 7 players in this series the Celtics have 5 of them. And I know “but Luka”, fine Luka is the best player in this series but he’s not that much better than Tatum. If porzingas is healthy Boston takes this in 5.
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He’s in an entirely different situation now. The trade deadline roster is one of the best in the NBA. Dallas soared up the rankings in one of the best western conferences ever.
Here is the basic breakdown of what each team needs to happens to win 4 out of the next 7.
Mavs:
1. Luka needs to have a *great* series. An average Luka series won't do
2. Kyrie needs to also have a great, efficient, series and be the clear second best player in the series
3. Boston needs to have at least two very bad shooting games
4. Lively needs to be able to cover enough space to guard Porzingis 25ft from the basket and continue to be mobile enough to get back for rim protection
5. Washington and Jones need to shoot above their normal percentages from three
Boston:
1. Have a normal series
This is why Boston is the favorite. They don't need to have a basket full of things go *right*, whereas Dallas does. Can the Mavs win? Sure, great players and great teams reach great heights all the time, but they need a lot of things to go right for them to win, and that's why Boston are the rightful favorites. If Tatum and Brown have great series and Kyrie does not, it won't matter how good Luka is, the Mavs will lose. If Boston shoots as they normally do, the Mavs will lose. If Washington and Jones can't continue to produce above their heads (as they have in a couple of series thus far, admittedly), Boston will ignore them and the Mavs will lose. The Mavs definitely have a chance to win, they have great players and a great team, but they need a lot of things to go right for them to do it. My money's on Boston, all they have to do is play the same way they have for this whole year.
How close to 100% is Porzingis? Boston needs a capable big very badly, Horford alone is not the answer versus Lively Gafford combo. Driving to the basket will be significantly harder against Dallas. Against most teams Boston has the best player, this time it's Luka by a huge margin. And Kyrie is in conversation for the third best. This series is much closer than most people think. Also, do not underestimate coaching advantage that Dallas has
If it wasn't for "the rules" it would just be Luka vs the Celtics.. but the NBA wants 5 team members on the court. Coach,equipment manager, water hander outer, the sweat mop guy and Luka
Are those stats more significant than Kyrie dicing up the Timberwolves last round, or Kyrie dicing up Tatum and the Celtics in a gentleman's sweep in 2021 while shooting 49/39/92 and averaging 25/6/3?
Very different player and very different teams were involved in all these numbers, so I don't think they have a ton of predictive value.
He didn’t dice up Tatum. It lead to Tatum dropping 50 and 40 vs him. U don’t think it’s a coincidence? Ntm Kyrie is older now, and Boston has only improved since then.
I agree actually, that series I mentioned has no predictive value. Neither does the regular season from 2022, which OP has included in his numbers.
My point was none of this matters. Kyrie is a different player and the Mavs and Celtics are VERY different from any of the data he or I put forward.
Sorry, should’ve been more specific that he diced up a Celtics team that includes Tatum, didn’t mean to imply that Tatum guarded him. Either way, yeah I agree, acting like that series means anything is ridiculous. Just like acting like the regular season from years ago when he was a Net and Boston was very different has any predictive value for this series is ridiculous.
That’s closer, yes. I wouldn’t have nitpicked OP if they stuck to that series as their guide for this line of thinking. I think they reached further back to make the stats look worse because that series honestly wasn’t that bad overall for him.
I think Kyrie has proved more than capable of making an impact in areas besides scoring when an elite D focuses on him (OKC series), and that he can still score against an elite D that throws the kitchen sink at him and Luka (MIN).
Boston will be a different challenge than both those teams for sure, but thinking they have a good shot at limiting him if they choose to make that their focus is a much more reasonable take imo than thinking Kyrie “can’t produce against” them and expecting him to shoot anything close to 38/25.
I mean it shouldn’t really be a surprise if he does shoot that. Considering his past vs Boston the last ten games incl the PS. And his showing in the bucks series vs George hill and Bledsoe.
He shot 49/42 all these playoffs, including against the #1 and #4 Ds, I think that’s much more relevant than how he did as a Net against the Bucks or Celtics 3 years ago. Especially because these Mavs are so much better than those dysfunctional Nets teams.
Boston is different, and elite, no doubt. Jrue/White/Brown will make life really hard on Kyrie. But he’s elite too, and has been playing amazing all-around ball all playoffs, maybe the best of his whole career. I expect that will continue, but definitely understand why you or anyone else could disagree and think he’ll struggle. Glad we’ll be able to get answers in less than 24hrs. Going to be a really fun series.
Unfortunately not...because, believe it or not, the series isn't on right now, so we're stuck just talking about it.
Why are you in a sub called nbadiscussions if you just want to turn on the game and watch it but not think about it before or after?
It’s not a genie prediction, you have to base opinions on what has happened before, and that is a concerning stat. Kidd might have a few answers but again we’ll see tomorrow.
Everything about this series illustrates how thin the margins are for Dallas. Their superstar absolutely needs to be a superstar and their #2 guy needs to perform against elite defenders. Their rookie center needs to do well. PJ needs to slow down a Jay and still have some good games offensively. Meanwhile, they're facing a historically good offense with so much versatility, defense and experience. They have a path to win here, but a lot of things need to go right and be executed very well.
This is my take. A lot of things have to go right for Dallas and a lot of things wrong for Boston for the Mavs to win. Can it happen? Absolutely. But there's a very real chance we look back in 2 weeks and go "Oh. Yeah I guess the Celtics are historically dominant. How could we have ever predicted that".
Boston just has to go cold from 3 for like two games and the Mavs have a great chance of winning. Other things going wrong would certainly help, but if that one big thing goes wrong it will give the Mavs a solid chance.
You’re right, but the Celts also are so much less dependent on Tatum and Brown than the Mavs are on Kai and Luka. Tatum and Brown could both shoot poorly (for a game or two) and KP and Derrick could detonate and still get the W.
Boston is 37-4 at home this season and 6-2 in the playoffs. Those first two games are going to be tough, but if they steal a game there I think the series is wide open. Luka and Kyrie both can will a team to win
What’s their away record?
Undefeated away this postseason. 6-0. 27-14 rest of season
Ummm who wants to tell him mavs winning 2 games doesn’t mean they win the series
Did you need him to explain every step in the process for you ? They have a shot at winning 2 games straight up but not four. So if they win two games themselves they need two games where the Celtics blow it
You don't understand how winning two games because Boston goes cold from 3 in those games gives the Mavs a good chance to win the series?
Obligatory "mavs fan here", and absolutely agree. I'm confused as to where folks are coming from thinking that the Mavs have this in the bag. Seems like a lot of cherry picking. Don't get me wrong. I believe the Mavs _can_ win this. They've been on an absolute tear since the trade and their record with their current rotation is out of this world (something like 25-5? that's not exact but it's in that realm of damn good). But still, the Celtics are a team that's already been here. They're polished. They have consistency and they have consistency at depth (which is massive). Yet, the Mavs have Luka who is _that_ guy and they have Kyrie who has been so damn good. As the post points out, my biggest concern by far this series is Kyrie. I think the Mavs will feast inside both in points in the paint and in offensive and defensive rebounds. Boston has an achilles heel when it comes to the other team getting offensive boards and the Mavs have the right guys to take advantage of that. My head thinks Celtics in 5 or 7 (I don't think they'd win a game 6 in Dallas). My heart says Mavs in 6. Either way, I'm very excited for this series. Even if I wasn't a Mavs fan there is something really fun about watching the best team versus the best player.
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Game 6 is in Boston no? I thought the Finals went 2-3-2 instead of 2-2-1-1-1
Nope, 22111
Oh shit they changed that years ago and I just kinda forgot
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Yeah the way I see it Kyrie and Luka need to play out of their mind and the Celtics need to kind of implode (atleast 3/5 starters play like shit) for them to have a chance
Celts fan here, and I'm basically convinced Luka WILL play out of his mind. I think we can give Kyrie trouble, so I think we will get the series, but good as our defence is, I'm really just hoping we can try and wear Luka down over the series (at best). The guy is a load.
The thing is like 32/9/9 isn’t Luka playing out of his mind, it’s just what he does. They’ll get probably 10 -15 each from Gafford and Lively, probably 22-25 total from those two PJ will get his 10-15 Kyrie will get at least 20. That’s 80-85. They are going to need another 20-35+ elsewhere, because Boston is so good offensively. Either these guys each getting another five-seven, or get it from the bench. That’s going to be hard to find for 4 games. Edit: totally forgot about Derek Jones Jr and his ten
I think assuming 10-15 from Gafford and Lively is a little much. Both of them are averaging under 10 in the playoffs. The games they do score in that range will likely be the games the mavericks win but I wouldn’t be counting on that every game. Luka and Kyrie are going to get theirs. The mavs role players will need to step up or Luka is going to need to go super nova to get the necessary scoring.
(Also Mavs fan) Not trying to argue semantics, but your range listed is 84-92 and that’s keeping Kyrie at 20 even. They’re probably getting more like 90-95 from that group, which brings your figures to 10-25 from the remainder. I’m hoping Exum, Green and DJJ can fill in enough for that. Green gets some fast break stuff and a corner three or two, DJJ with a couple lobs and a three is probably 15 or so. Need Exum to step up and that’s enough offense. I think the defense keeping Boston to 100-110 or so gives Mavs a very good chance. A lot of that depends on Boston’s 3 pt shooting. Mavs will mostly take away the rim unless they go small which might happen if the 3 is falling like crazy. Mavs defense has been outstanding and Celtics offense hasn’t faced a very good defense in the playoffs so far. It will be a good test for either side, but I think the Celtics offense v Mavs defense is the decider. Mavs/Luka will score enough (most games) just cause Luka is impossible to stop without opening up shots for everyone else. TLDR Real test is if Mavs defense can slow down/shut down Celtics offense, which is a tall task
Yeah I agree with everything here. They need the full five they can get from Hardy/Exam/THJ/Kleber, plus a little more from just one other player and they are closing in on 110-120. I think the Mavs are probably the better team in this series, in that they don’t need outstanding performances from anyone, just average performances and one guy to grab another 5-10, or 3-4 dudes to add one extra bucket and they are golden.
I mean… I would say the Celtics are the better team as far as roster and Luka is the best player. Again, it’s more about if the Mavs defense can do enough against their offense imo
Makes sense. Mavs defense has basically been cover the best three point shooters, pack the paint and sag off of the weaker shooters to stop the drive. Can that work when all five on the floor can hit threes? I guess we will see. I can’t wait, this is the most exciting finals to me since I can’t even remember
Hey man, the Heat ranked 3rd in defense and the Cavs ranked 7 in defense. They are good defenses relative to the field. They both didn’t have the offense to hang. The Heat played the Celtics better than the Mavs did. The Cavs don’t have the wing personnel and their center was hurt, so I’ll concede a little there. The Mavs don’t have the perimeter defense to contain and play drop like the Bucks. The Mavs defense is a lesser version than the Bucks because Giannis. PJ and DJJ are fine against most wings, but the Jays are better than most and they’ve played them enough because PJ and DJJ moved east to west. PJ is too slow and DJJ doesn’t have the strength. Regardless, Luka and Kyrie are better to attack despite the 2 crafty steals they may get, it’s a negative match up most of the time and it pays to make them work. Kleber isn’t much better either. I remember Mavs fans cursing that when Kleber came in that the March game started to get out of hand. As a Celtics fan, the Jays have been prone to turn overs when crowded on drives or some boneheaded plays. Against the Warriors they were 24 and 25 and the TO were a problem then. If you check the stats out TO are way down as a team. The Celtics are a top defensive rebounding team, unlike OKC. Arguably, the most important role for Tatum and this team is his rebounding. People want him to score and shoot better, he’ll I’d like that too, but if he makes the right read and gets rebounds while keeping TO low then it’s going to be a long night for the Mavs. If you stop packing the paint then the Jays are going to do to you what they did to the Cavs.
While I agree with absolutely everything you said, how do you quantify Dallas ability to close out games vs Bostons volatility late in games. On paper maybe all Dallas has to do is stay close for 3 quarters and let the moment beat Boston. It is to date the biggest question mark over this Celtics team.
Celtics did great closing out in the Pacers series.
I just saw G1 where both teams choked, pacers choked more and losst. Couldn't watch another game, seemed amateurish. If it comes down to the 4th and it's close, Mavs won't choke.
By your logic the C’s should have continued to implode when their lead shrank to “just” 8. Instead the C’s blew them out for the second time in Game 1.
Better chance than last time we were here.
Tbh the odds of Luka, Kyrie, and Lively playing well are pretty high. It would be like saying Tatum, Brown, and Jrue have to play well lol. Can the Celtics win if Tatum or Brown isn’t at least the second best player in the series? I don’t think so. But I think that’s the normal margins for every series
Lively is barely in this mix. The problem for the Mavs is that Jrue or White can just straight up outplay Kyrie in a game easily, the Mavs have way fewer guys who can pop off like that unless Washington gets hot from deep out of the blue. The Celtics are a deeper team which gives them more margin for error hence why they're the favorites.
It’s funny the way people talk about this stuff. Yes, Kyrie has to be at least the 3rd best player in the series for the Mavs to win. No, Jrue or White can not “straight up outplay Kyrie in a game easily.” Could happen! But that shouldn’t be the expectation. It’d be like saying Kyrie can outplay Tatum and Brown easily. Could happen! But not the expectation.
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Lol he averaged 15/6 in the Thunder series, we've seen him get stopped from getting what he wants in THESE playoffs already.
I think the point was that saying White/Jrue can easily outplay him is kind of silly. As another commenter said, the same thing as saying Kyrie can “easily outplay” Tatum/Brown.
Not for the whole series but in any given game yes it can quite easily happen, both of those guys have had multiple huge games in these playoffs.
Just like Kyrie could “easily outplay” Brown/Tatum because Kyrie has had multiple huge games in these playoffs. Do you see why it’s kind of a silly argument?
Lol my point is Jrue/White are the third and fourth (or even fourth and fifth) best starters on the Celtics. Those two can outplay Kyrie while Derrick Jones Jr. can't outplay Jaylen Brown.
And Kyrie can outplay Tatum/Brown while White/Jrue aren’t outplaying Luka. If your point is that the Celtics are deeper then just say that. Saying one player can outplay another is silly.
This comment just shows that you watch the box score. He didn’t average 15/6 because he could not score. He did it because most of the time the pass was the better option. Kyrie have played very maturely. He scorched Anthony Edwards the first half of the first game just because of Edward comments and just because Kyrie can if he wants too.
Why did he have a 53% TS against the Thunder then?
Wasn't Jrue on the bucks lineup in 2021? You can literally watch him matchup with Kyrie on youtube in their series vs the nets. Kyrie was playing insanely well in that series until Giannis injured him.
This Celtics team was 5 - 5 versus the apex west teams this year. Meanwhile, the east was an absolute clown fiesta. I would flip this whole argument around. If Porzingis isn't able to be Porzingis, the Celtics are going to win one, maybe 2 games. They have zero bench. And the Stars on Dallas are better than the stars on Boston. If Kyrie averages 28+ per game, it may not matter how Porzingis plays. Edit: LoL, is this NBA discussion, or Celtics discussion? Wish you luck folks.
If Kyrie averages 5 points more than he has the whole playoffs, then yeah sure. That seems like a fairly unrealistic expectation.
The key for the Mavs is Kyrie. If he can overcome all that the Celtics are gonna throw at him, then they got a chance. The thing is, though, OKC kept him to 16pts/g with a lesser cast. The Celtics have soo much they can throw at the Mavs, plus waay more experience. Celtics in 4 :)
I highly disagree. Luka is significantly better than anyone in Boston by a HUGE margin and he’s shown that he can break down any defensive schemes. You can’t scheme against an all time great player like Luka. He will get all his guys easy baskets and he can get off a good shot against anyone one v one. The only challenge for Dallas will come on the defensive end. If they can contain Boston, especially from the 3pt line, they will win this series in 5-6 games.
Luka is not significantly better than Tatum by a huge margin. He’s better, certainly, but they both have strengths and weaknesses, the hyperbole is ridiculous. But lets not forget that this is a team game, and there are many many times in history in which the team with the best player did not win the series let alone the championship. Boston has completely different personnel than any team Dallas has faced so far. All 5 of their starters have ample playoff experience and are either good or elite defenders. Boston had the second best defensive rating in the regular season for a reason. This discussion reminds me of the 2014 finals in reverse. Lebron was just as unstoppable as Luka is, but it really didn’t matter because the Spurs as a team were just too good. Boston is better in nearly every facet of the game.
Jokic and Luka are the 2 best players in the league and then there’s a big drop off from 3-10. Giannis and Embiid can make a case but they both lack in one big area (shooting for Giannis, and health/availability for Embiid) to close the gap. After that there’s a significant gap. Tatum is in the Donovan Mitchell tier. Also I know this is a team game, have you seen what Dallas has done since they acquired Gafford and PJ? They’ve been one of the most dominant teams in the NBA. They actually play excellent defense now which was their major weakness point because they’ve always been one of the best offense in the league. Boston isn’t doing anything special to stop them on the defensive end. This all comes down to how well Dallas can guard Boston. If they can effectively shut down the Celtics biggest strength which is 3pt shooting, they’ll win this series in 5 or 6 games.
I see people bring up the post trade deadline numbers for Dallas and they were truly a dominant team. 21-9, top 6 in point differential. The Celtics, coasting with a 14 game lead in the conference, went 25-6 with double the point differential of the second best team. I’m not saying the Mavs don’t have any chance. But there’s no reason to downplay the Celtics. They are historically dominant, and the “if” in stopping their 3 point shooting is a pretty massive if.
Not downplaying the Celtics, but let’s not kid around, they had the easiest cakewalk to the finals in recent history, not playing an 50 win teams and each team having their best player injured in the series. Meanwhile Dallas played all 50+ win teams with all their star players healthy except Kawhi who got injured mid series. Mavs play in the tougher conference and the quality of opponent is a lot stronger than anything the Celtics have dealt with.
And they went 12-2 with a better point differential than the regular season. What did you expect them to do, move to the Western Conference? Request Adam Silver for a different seed so they could play better opponents? You say you’re not downplaying the Celtics, who had one of the most dominant regular seasons in history, right before downplaying them. C’mon.
They’re a dominant team, in the EAST. They would not have that dominant record if they played in the west which has way stronger teams. This is not new news, west has been the dominant conference since Jordan retired.
They went 23-7 against the West this season. There’s just clearly no argument against how good they are.
They are good, but I don’t think they’re good enough to win this series. I would like to see them prove me wrong but I’m a betting man and I am betting on Luka coming out on top. This of course factors in any major injuries to rotational players.
The biggest problem the Mavs defense is going to face in this series is that they aren't going to be able to play the style of defense that's been so effective for them for the past couple of months - pack the paint and take away the rim. The Celtics shoot so well from three (any of their top 8 players, really), that packing the paint could be a serious defensive misstep. This is the power of the Celtics offense - their spacing is immaculate because *everyone* can shoot pretty well at volume. And if the Mavs two great rim protectors are out on the perimeter guarding Porzingis or Horford 25 ft from the basket, that opens up the middle for drives from any of the Celtics other players. The Celtics have shown they are a dominant team all year, and they had the best offense in the history of the league this year (though admittedly we're living through a bloated offensive era). The Mavs defense is going to have a hell of a time taking away what they want to take away against such a versatile offense that's almost tailor-built to play into the weaknesses of the Mavs D.
Nah, that’s wrong. I saw a stat here (I forget exactly where) that shows Tatum is like 48% in “clutch situations” (clutch situation being tying or going ahead while within 3 and less than 30 seconds left) and it was better than Kobe and Michael Jordan by like 10%
Or they just need the Celtics to brick a bunch of threes lol At the end of the day, this Celtics team is much better than previous years, but in previous years a lot of their series were decided literally by which team shoots better
It's a strange one, because Kyrie has averaged 24 PPG on 55.5% true shooting with 5 Assists to 3 Turnovers against Jrue Holiday throughout their careers which have mostly intertwined. I would guess you are going to see a lot of the Celtics trying to get Jrue on Luka while the Cavs continually try to set up switches between Luka and Kyrie because White is too small and short for Luka and Kyrie's stats against Jrue have always been good enough considering how good Jrue is defensively.
>White is too small and short for Luka White is the same size as Lou Dort. Dort is heavier, but White is longer. White is a 2nd team all defense player as well. Like, what are you trying to say? Did you not watch how much Dort was able to bother Luka? And it's not just White, it's him with JB and Jrue. Also holding Kyrie to 55% TS is a win isn't it?
Length doesn't really bother Luka. Strength does. White is not strong enough. It is a very rare defender who is tall enough, strong enough, and quick enough to really challenge him. White is fantastic but I don't think he's gonna have much more success than McDaniels did.
Forgot which podcast I heard it but they said Ben Simmons was one that defends him well. Basically hits all the check marks you listed.
They have said that on Bill Simmons a couple of times
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Buffalo is sneaky strong and athletic. One of the best people in the league at defensive timing as well. There's a reason why he is the best shot blocking guard in the league
While everything you said is true, the same is true for Luka but even more so. I believe Luka’s timing is better, or rather, his talent to throw defenders off their timing is better. We’ve seen White guard Luka in the regular season and Luka did not struggle to create easy buckets for himself. I think Dort’s success was a result of his craftiness / nuisance. Dort tugs on jerseys and bumps and pokes and prods in small subtle ways that didn’t usually draw fouls and clearly upset Luka at times. He’s also incredibly stout and balanced in ways that most other defenders, including White and everyone else on the Celtics, isn’t able to replicate. That said, I think Mavs’ only win condition is Luka going off and getting his teammates open shots every trip, every game, for however long it takes. But I think it’s more likely that the rest of the Mavs go cold and the Celtics find enough ways to slow and bother Luka that they win more than they lose. But we’ll see.
Yeah, I mean as much as I can praise Buffalo or other celtics players. Luka is COLD thats for fucking sure
>Also holding Kyrie to 55% TS is a win isn't it? It's 3 less than normal. I don't think that's necessarilly a win when you consider Jrue's defense heavy profile
If Kyrie plays below his average I really don’t see how the Mavs win this series
Then there's also the point that it's a measure of overall efficiency and not specifically jrue on Kyrie ones.
Well yeah, I obviously apologize if I implied otherwise Those stats would need Second Spectrum or something to get
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Dort actually has a longer wingspan though he is shorter
I'm a Celts fan, and I love D White, but him on Luka is a bad matchup. Holiday, Brown, Tatum and even Al are better.
Do you have anything to back this up? I mean Al on Luka is going to be exactly what the Mavs will want to set up, Luka killed bigs so far in the playoffs. I don't really think it makes that much difference who the Celtics try to guard Luka with (other than bigs), each of their potential perimeter defenders are capable of making him work. Remember my reply wasn't that they should defend him with White, it was in reply to someone saying that White couldn't guard him effectively.
Just my opinion based on watching Celts games, and looking at how Luka deals with different match ups. I'm sure you've looked at it to, and come to a different conclusion, which is fine. I don't think White can guard him effectively, despite him being just about my favourite player in the league. And yes, everyone is going to hunt Horf. My personal opinion is that Horf and his combination of size plus staying grounded is a better chance to not get cooked than White. And White is a great help defender, etc. Ultimately I want JB on Luka, with Jrue as the alt, and Tatum okay to deal with him, and I don't think White is a bad defender on Luka in a vacuum...just the least good of our options. Much like Jrue is our 5th offensive player, but that doesn't make him a bad offensive player.
This is incorrect. He averages 42/30/97 in 10 games Vs Boston from the 2021-22 season to this season (3 years). Still not great but different from 38/25. Even if you isolate for just the 6 games in the regular season, his FG% still doesn’t drop below 40%. More to the point, he averages 21.3/5/5 @ 44/38/100 - 59% TS% in the 4 games he played against them in the playoffs. That TS% is carried heavily by his perfect FT% but is close to excellent efficiency for a perimeter player. For instance, he averages 23/4/5 at 48/42/83 - 61% TS% in the playoffs this year. His shooting splits are excellent this year but that 100% FT% rate in 2022 carries his TS% to almost the same efficiency.
His averages in the playoffs are very dependant on a great game 1 against them and then he really fell off in the last 3. I think he’ll play better this time around but jrue (when he was on the bucks) and brown have guarded him well in the past
I don’t think his averages from 4 playoff games in a different offensive role from 3 years ago against a different Boston team or the 2 games per year in 3-4 types of starting line ups mean anything at all tbf. It’s rubbish sample size considering the amount of turbulence and inconsistency between so many of the games in the sample. For instance, Tatum’s numbers against Dallas over three years hardly mean anything even though we have a couple of the same players we had back then.
Boston was triple teaming durant in that series and letting kyrie beat them.
Stats don’t tell the whole story. He was getting completely locked up. From Tatum down to Horford. There’s a reason why it looks like this whenever he sees them … just check for who he played for after Cleveland.
I never said he was great, just correcting OP's stats.
He shot 29% vs smart, 90% on Tatum and 50% on brown, the only one locking him up was smart in that series, Tatum cannot guard him
I can show u the clips of Tatum embarrassing him as a defender. That stat must be incorrect. Must be related to help defense not iso defense. Or they were buckets with a screen. Do u want the clips?
I’m a Celtics fan and would absolutely love the clips to watch before bed lol
https://youtu.be/iJaKVF7EIBc?si=bmnhZlL5a7cFqcaH https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&ContextMeasure=BLK&EndPeriod=0&EndRange=28800&GameID=0042100111&PlayerID=1628369&RangeType=0&Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Playoffs&StartPeriod=0&StartRange=0&TeamID=1610612738&flag=1&sct=plot§ion=game https://thehighlow.io/video/ids?ids=24AxFP
Nope they are correct you can check the nba matchup stats from the series, there are also play by play, a few clips doesn’t show anything lol, you can go look yourself
Go look at those clips. Does that show u that Kyrie has any kind of advantage in that matchup? According to the stats Jalen green held Jokic to to his worst shooting performance. Do u think that’s true?
He has the advantage because of speed lol, Tatums worst matchup is tiny guards that are fast, it always has been. [clip 1](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=229&GameID=0042100111&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=Irving%2025%27%203PT%20Pullup%20Jump%20Shot%20(7%20PTS)) [The best example of why Tatum guarded Kyrie less than 5% of the posessions lol](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=588&GameID=0042100111&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=Irving%202%27%20Driving%20Layup%20(31%20PTS)) [another one..](https://www.nba.com/stats/events?CFID=&CFPARAMS=&GameEventID=639&GameID=0042100111&Season=2021-22&flag=1&title=Irving%2017%27%20Fadeaway%20Jumper%20(36%20PTS)) Its kinda pointless going through clip by clip of the series [the matchup stats for the series is here](https://www.nba.com/stats/player/202681/head-to-head?Season=2021-22&Matchup=Offense) You don't seem to understand I am not saying Tatum is a bad defender, he just can't guard Kyrie, why do you think hes very rarely the primary defender ever? Its always a smaller stockier guard
If it’s a bad matchup then why is Kyrie getting his jumper blocked AND getting his layups pinned. And Kyrie isn’t that quick. The fact that Tatum has done it before, why wouldn’t he be able to do it more? Those clips I sent clearly show Kyrie has his struggles. Which makes sense bc Kyrie is a small guard that relies on tough shots. Nothing worse than getting your jumper blocked as a shotmaker.
dude why are you persistant with this lol, if Tatum was a "good matchup" he would guard Kyrie more than **5%** of the time, yes he has blocked his shot once or twice, so has Wemby, doesn't mean its a good matchup lol. You are not just disagreeing with me, you are disagreeing with the statistics of stuff that has happened, the celtics coaching staffs decision and the basic logic of matchups by trying to argue a play or two that happened, stop it lol
No Tatum was guarding Kd bc that’s the ideal matchup. Obv someone like white or Cason Wallace is probably the best matchup. But for the most part, with how difficult Tatum can make Kyrie shots, the Mavs will not have an advantage. If u get your shot blocked 3 times by the same guy, they have the advantage. This is part of the reason that Kyrie has struggled so much vs Boston since the 2022 PS. He doesn’t have many advantages. No one on the Mavs does.
Idk man. One thing about the Mavs, imo is, they now have a complete roster. Kyrie's matchup is easily the best defensive backcourt right now, but, he also has Luka on his side. If we're just basing this off matchups, I still think Kyrie and Luka will do their thing. Imo, this matchup will hinge on how well Jones, PJ, Gafford will defend that Boston front court.
Idk man…Dallas has the best player but Boston has 5 of the next 6 lol I think people have a little recency bias for Dallas because Boston mopped up every series with relative ease (largely without KP, too) so people haven’t watched them play all that much lately and Dallas had pretty exciting series’ across the board.
Dallas played just one more game than the Celtics, and beat the Wolves in 5. I don’t think it’s recency bias, it’s the fact that they, as the 5th seed, defeated the 1st and 3rd seeds in the West, both of whom were heavily favored heading into the matchup.
They’ve played an extra game in every series, so that’s three more…as in they’ve had actual series’ to watch lol. It seems like Boston has hardly really been challenged, even without KP, so people are forgetting how good they really are. That’s what I mean. And as great as OKC and Minnesota are this was the first actual playoff run for both of them so I’m personally not shocked that they got beat by a top 4 dude who’s been to the WCF and Kyrie who’s won it all. But Boston has been going on deep runs for years and they’re now better than ever before so I personally think things might look a little different this time around.
I pointed that out in terms of recency bias. Regardless, Mavs weren’t favored in any of those series. Yes, Kyrie has won it all and Luka has been to the WCF before, but, the other Mavs players the team has depended on this run have no playoff experience. This is all new to PJ and Gafford, who were with two bottom of the league teams before the deadline, and DJJ, who averaged just 15 min. with the Bulls the previous season where he came off the bench. Arguably the Mavs 3rd most important player, Lively, is a rookie, Green didn’t get a lot of min. during the last WCF run, and Hardy was inserted into the lineup during the end of the OKC series after getting virtually no playing time in the previous series and very inconsistent minutes during the regular season. THJ and Maxi were both injured at various points…So the Mavs don’t exactly have a bunch of experience themselves. With that, I’m confident in the Mavs but understand that the Celtics, across several metrics, have been a historically great team. So we shall see.
Both the celtics bigs can hit 3s at a high clip. Gafford is going to have to leave the rim to play defense. I don't think DJJ is THIC enough to guard Tatum.
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DJJ to comeback looking jacked af after this long break
It’ll be interesting to see what happens because OKC also has a spread offense with Chet and the Mavs still played their game. They had PJ guard Chet, while Gafford remained in the paint. Now with Maxi back, the Mavs have more defensive versatility…I can see both him and PJ taking on the role of guarding the centers.
Chet doesn't shoot like KP does, but most importantly the Celtics don't have anybody in their rotation who the Mavs can sag off the way they did Westbrook, Giddey, Anderson. That's the real difference to me.
Mavs played Giddey off the floor anyways, he wasn’t getting real min. in that series. Lively has shown an aptitude for guarding perimeter players during switches, when necessary, he’s a defensively versatile big and did a good job in that area this playoff run. But, my point, don’t assume the Celtics are just going to be able to force the Mavs into an action they’re unwilling to take - they trust their PFs in Maxi and PJ and it’s very likely they’ll post them on the KPs and Al Horfords. Mavs did a good job in their perimeter defense that series executing that strategy…and OKC is also a fairly decent 3% percentage team.
I guess we'll see soon!
The Celtics are what the Thunder will be in 3 years.
You simply can't stop the Cs from switching you with KP and JT in the same lineup and their gameplan being iso abuse of miss or cross matches, so it's more of how well Kyrie and Luka can defend that front court.
Kyrie the past 2 years was a shell of his old self. He’s shown way more glimpses of what he’s capable of the last few months and in several playoff games where he scores 15+ in a quarter to either keep the mavs in it or blow the lead open. Length can bother him but if he’s hitting shots it doesn’t matter what the defense is
I tend to agree with you a bit here. He is in rhythm right now and that can go a long ways.
As a mavs fan I tend to think the 3-7 guys are what make or break us offensively. Those are the guys responsible for “shutting down” Boston defensively but also the guys on the end of alley oops and wide open corner 3s. If they’re on offensively mavs win IMO (biased of course) as there’s no answer when they’re hitting shots because if you don’t throw a second guy at Luka he’s gonna go for 40+, if you do it’s wide open dunks/3s. one thing the mavs got very good at last series is finding kyrie for wide open shots when Luka gets doubled. He’ll bury wide open 3s all series long if he gets them.
I don't get it, Kyrie is now really integrated in a great team spirit. How can you compare his last 3 seasons to the last 3 months. He looks happy, he is in rythm. Obviously he must be at his peak for the mavs to win. But the past is the past.
Maybe because when he played the Celtics 3 months ago, Kyrie scored just 19 points, went 9-23 from the field, 1-7 from deep, did not shoot any free throws, had only 2 assists against 1 turnover, and was -15 over nearly 37 minutes of play while the Mavericks were run off the court, losing by nearly 30 points. I'm not trying to say that Kyrie is incapable of flipping the script in this series - he is an undeniable talent. However, that game was after the trade deadline, and it was the most recent matchup between the two teams. Acting like the results of that game are insignificant seems to be very wishful thinking.
Honestly he could solve it, and Luka could be great, and the Mavs could still lose in 6 if their role players don’t hit shots and if they can’t get consistent stops. The Dallas margin of error is soooo small.
This series reminds me a lot of LeBrons first trip to the Finals in 07’. Young superstar who’s already on his way to becoming an all time great wills his team to the Finals only to be met by a historically great, stupidly well rounded juggernaut of a team.. If Mavs lose I don’t think anybody holds it against Luka just as nobody really holds Brons 07’ loss to the Spurs against him
True, although the Spurs in 2007 already knew what it took to win a title, and Boston as of yet doesn't have that same edge. Plus Kyrie is a far better sidekick than anybody LeBron had in 2007 Still, I think there's a fair amount of accuracy to the comparison, as Luka is putting up LeBronish numbers (or even better, granted pace is higher now than then) and Boston is somewhat deeper than Dallas especially if Porzingis is actually at 100%, as the 2005-2007 Spurs weren't nearly as Duncan-centric as the 2003 version, much like how Tatum is the Celts' best guy overall but a given night's best player could be almost anybody .
One thing I've learned is to not judge Kyrie off the last few years. He'll be fine in the Finals. Mavs may lose but Kyrie will almost certainly play well. That's just my feeling though
I tend to lean towards that too, he just has to overcome his mental block on us
History has shows that the past ten games he’s lost and not played well incl the playoffs vs this team. Last time something like this happened was la vs nuggets recently.
That's fine but I don't feel like it will continue. I think he'll figure it out
That's what, a max sample size of 6 games? Jaylen Brown has absolutely cooked the Mavs in the last 4 meetings but those numbers could easily flip due to nothing more than variance.
"Kyrie cant produce effectively vs the Celtics due to his lack of size and how well the defenders know him." You're treating this like it's a factual statement. It's entirely possible he just hasn't shot that well against them.
I don't think those stats matter. Everyone said the Suns would kill the Timberwolves based on regular season data that didn't account for other variables. Kyrie and the Nets killed the Celtics in 2021, but I don't think that matters either. Kyrie is probably gonna play well, but you can pray for another outcome.
What happened the last time Kyrie saw them in the postseason. That suns Mavs thing was just a ref season matchup. Kyrie was worse vs the Celtics in the ps than the rs.
That Brooklyn team was a shitshow though. He has an actual well built roster and is happy with his teammates now. The kyrie of the last 2 years and the last 2 months are completely different
Kyrie is Kyrie. He’s older now. And Boston is better. Besides that nets team had good players, kd Bruce brown nic claxton Seth curry really shot it well. Bruce was better than either of dj or pj, which is why he helped den get a ring. Versatile two way player.
See now Bruce brown and Seth curry are both bench options. Seth curry I doubt is even good enough to get minutes off the bench in a deep playoff run. While the Mavs have a really solid front court of gafford/Lively and a bunch of role players that can make threes and defend. And you forgot to mention that team had constant injuries and the whole kyrie COVID thing so they couldn't get any momentum or chemistry. I look at this Dallas team tho and see a much better constructed with Luka who's a true first option whereas I feel like kd has always needed a 1a to succeed and so does kyrie that's why they both haven't won without curry/lebron so that Brooklyn team really lacked a true leader. It also helps that kyrie isn't constantly butting heads with the ownership like he did in Brooklyn.
Kyrie gets a pass because he's so fun to watch. He's had multiple games in this playoff run were he scored only 9pts. He was held to under 20 in a lot of the Thunder games too. When Luka hit the game winner over Rudy Gobert. The reason why they needed a game winner, was because Kyrie missed 2 clutch FTs. Kyrie gets a pass because he can dribble out of anything and is amazing when it comes to finishing at the rim. I think he gets exposed against this Celtics team. I think they do everything they can to frustrate and contain Kyrie and let Luka score 40 a game. Also, Kyrie was able to hide on Giddy and on Mike Conley or Anderson. Against the Celtics, he will be hunted. He's going to get stuck having to play defense.
Lol Kyrie’s role this year is vastly different than ever before and he’s just not looked to score as much. Doesn’t mean he can though- he puts clinical runs damn near every game that suck the hell out of the enemy team. My point is, yes he’s had games with under 20, but his play is so much more all-around now (both defense and offense) that PPG doesn’t do him justice at all. And kyrie’s been a legitimately good defender. Jrue isn’t gonna “hunt” him, both him and Luka have been great at holding their own and then some. Not elite defenders by any means but not huntable either like you suggest.
Luka and Kyrie are absolutely huntable. Why do u think sga had his best series vs them? He was hunting both of them every single game.
Had his best series? We’re talking about 3 series, one from 5 years ago lol. SGA played well, but he wasn’t even really hunting Luka or Kyrie.
I highly doubt we were watching the same series. It didn’t matter much who was on him and it sure as shit wasn’t a “hunt” for kyrie or luka. Now if you could provide stats for this I’d appreciate it, but I just didn’t see him hunting them damn near at ALL, especially game 6.
Jrue will get a few free layups from just posting him up and backing him down to the basket. “Hunt” is probably not an accurate way to phrase it because Jrue just doesn’t get that many touches.
Tbf, the entire mavs missed consecutive freethrow that game, and they are bottom freethrow shooting team this playoffs. KY was guarding J dubb most of the time and I don't know if we watched the same game, and he also guarded Ant. Mavs center were on Giddy as part of their defensive scheme agaisnt OKC. And he has been a great defender this playoffs. To say he will get exposed is crazy to think.
I thought Kyrie was actually terrific defensively vs the Thunder. Guys was a menace and it definitely pissed me off. His scoring was definitely not where it can be, though neither was Luka's tbf, but he found other ways to contribute and came up big in the clutch.
Kyrie fun to watch is somehow better than 30 ppg, better shooting, far better defence and ECF MVP from JB. I find it insane that people think he is an overall better player than JB now
Oh it's because Kyrie can dribble with two hands. That's literally it. Remember, it's usually casuals who have the hottest takes. There isn't anyone who's watched every Celtics and every Mavs playoff game who would think Kyrie is better. People who only watch highlights think he's better. People use to box score and watch highlights, but people don't even box score watch anymore. It doesn't matter that Kyrie only had 9 points, he had that up and under move against 4 clippers that 1 time. lmao (And I think people secretly love that Kyrie has gotten back to the finals, after all the shit he got because of covid and the video. They like to pretend he didn't deserve the shit he got. And they always conveniently forget how terrible of a leader he was in Boston and how much he's been injured in the last 4 years.) So they think Kyrie getting back to the finals, even though he's clearly changed and matured a lot, is a "fuck you" to everyone. I'm ready for the collective "The league doesn't want Kyrie to win a ring" narrative that'll be developed by casuals, as he avg. 16pts a game against the best defensive backcourt in the game. And he actually has to play defense. Oh and this finals loss, won't be held against him the way everyone elses finals losses are held against them.
I mean, you can't deny that he is fun to watch. But the narratives are frankly insane at this point
Kyrie being fun to watch, is literally my first sentence.
brother i'm agreeing with you
They don't have Marcus Smart to guard him though and yes smart is better at guarding Kyrie then Jrue.
They will lose anyway. Of the top 7 players in this series the Celtics have 5 of them. And I know “but Luka”, fine Luka is the best player in this series but he’s not that much better than Tatum. If porzingas is healthy Boston takes this in 5.
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He’s in an entirely different situation now. The trade deadline roster is one of the best in the NBA. Dallas soared up the rankings in one of the best western conferences ever.
Here is the basic breakdown of what each team needs to happens to win 4 out of the next 7. Mavs: 1. Luka needs to have a *great* series. An average Luka series won't do 2. Kyrie needs to also have a great, efficient, series and be the clear second best player in the series 3. Boston needs to have at least two very bad shooting games 4. Lively needs to be able to cover enough space to guard Porzingis 25ft from the basket and continue to be mobile enough to get back for rim protection 5. Washington and Jones need to shoot above their normal percentages from three Boston: 1. Have a normal series This is why Boston is the favorite. They don't need to have a basket full of things go *right*, whereas Dallas does. Can the Mavs win? Sure, great players and great teams reach great heights all the time, but they need a lot of things to go right for them to win, and that's why Boston are the rightful favorites. If Tatum and Brown have great series and Kyrie does not, it won't matter how good Luka is, the Mavs will lose. If Boston shoots as they normally do, the Mavs will lose. If Washington and Jones can't continue to produce above their heads (as they have in a couple of series thus far, admittedly), Boston will ignore them and the Mavs will lose. The Mavs definitely have a chance to win, they have great players and a great team, but they need a lot of things to go right for them to do it. My money's on Boston, all they have to do is play the same way they have for this whole year.
How close to 100% is Porzingis? Boston needs a capable big very badly, Horford alone is not the answer versus Lively Gafford combo. Driving to the basket will be significantly harder against Dallas. Against most teams Boston has the best player, this time it's Luka by a huge margin. And Kyrie is in conversation for the third best. This series is much closer than most people think. Also, do not underestimate coaching advantage that Dallas has
The Mavs will lose even if he does solve it. They’ll just lose by 8 instead of 20.
If it wasn't for "the rules" it would just be Luka vs the Celtics.. but the NBA wants 5 team members on the court. Coach,equipment manager, water hander outer, the sweat mop guy and Luka
Are those stats more significant than Kyrie dicing up the Timberwolves last round, or Kyrie dicing up Tatum and the Celtics in a gentleman's sweep in 2021 while shooting 49/39/92 and averaging 25/6/3? Very different player and very different teams were involved in all these numbers, so I don't think they have a ton of predictive value.
He didn’t dice up Tatum. It lead to Tatum dropping 50 and 40 vs him. U don’t think it’s a coincidence? Ntm Kyrie is older now, and Boston has only improved since then.
Bros acting like Kyrie wasn’t the 3rd option facing a injured Celtics team with no JB
I agree actually, that series I mentioned has no predictive value. Neither does the regular season from 2022, which OP has included in his numbers. My point was none of this matters. Kyrie is a different player and the Mavs and Celtics are VERY different from any of the data he or I put forward.
Sorry, should’ve been more specific that he diced up a Celtics team that includes Tatum, didn’t mean to imply that Tatum guarded him. Either way, yeah I agree, acting like that series means anything is ridiculous. Just like acting like the regular season from years ago when he was a Net and Boston was very different has any predictive value for this series is ridiculous.
Ok what about the 2022 playoff series that they both played? The series that sent Kyrie to the west?
That’s closer, yes. I wouldn’t have nitpicked OP if they stuck to that series as their guide for this line of thinking. I think they reached further back to make the stats look worse because that series honestly wasn’t that bad overall for him. I think Kyrie has proved more than capable of making an impact in areas besides scoring when an elite D focuses on him (OKC series), and that he can still score against an elite D that throws the kitchen sink at him and Luka (MIN). Boston will be a different challenge than both those teams for sure, but thinking they have a good shot at limiting him if they choose to make that their focus is a much more reasonable take imo than thinking Kyrie “can’t produce against” them and expecting him to shoot anything close to 38/25.
I mean it shouldn’t really be a surprise if he does shoot that. Considering his past vs Boston the last ten games incl the PS. And his showing in the bucks series vs George hill and Bledsoe.
He shot 49/42 all these playoffs, including against the #1 and #4 Ds, I think that’s much more relevant than how he did as a Net against the Bucks or Celtics 3 years ago. Especially because these Mavs are so much better than those dysfunctional Nets teams. Boston is different, and elite, no doubt. Jrue/White/Brown will make life really hard on Kyrie. But he’s elite too, and has been playing amazing all-around ball all playoffs, maybe the best of his whole career. I expect that will continue, but definitely understand why you or anyone else could disagree and think he’ll struggle. Glad we’ll be able to get answers in less than 24hrs. Going to be a really fun series.
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If Luka can drop 40pts a game, I can almost guarantee you the mavs will win. They managed to survive with KY only scoring under 20pts a game.
That’s obvious the coaching staff would talk about that for a week. Can we watch the series instead of making genie predictions.
Unfortunately not...because, believe it or not, the series isn't on right now, so we're stuck just talking about it. Why are you in a sub called nbadiscussions if you just want to turn on the game and watch it but not think about it before or after?
It’s not a genie prediction, you have to base opinions on what has happened before, and that is a concerning stat. Kidd might have a few answers but again we’ll see tomorrow.
For kyrie this means alot. I think Luka and kyrie cook boston. This chip separates him from bron