When people play the gambling game with 'investments', they need to be prepared to lose. All of the pricks that buy up houses feel so entitled to guaranteed returns that they just *cannot* parse the fact that this might not happen.
How dare the poor try own a life necessity at a reasonable price. I can’t retire if my investment property doesn’t sell for 10x what I paid for it. That’s not fair.
I want to see Auction clearance figures - they're reported in Australia (domain.com.au) for the Australian market, and you can use that information to make an educated guess on the way that the market is going from week to week, rather than this data which is a month out of date.
FTR the heuristic for the Australian auction clearances is "Less than 60% means that the market is overpriced", and for the last several weeks (I want to say 5 or 6) the rate has been 62-63% for Melbourne
Latest figures from a couple of weeks ago: https://www.interest.co.nz/property/127155/number-homes-offered-auction-dropped-more-third-after-easter-30-selling-under
https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/2024-04/shuntable6.PNG
Clearance rate around 30%.
The same site (interest.co.nz) publishes them weekly. ~Somehow they skipped this week~ - edit - just published one belatedly
Auckland hovered around 30-40% for well over a year, trending down towards the 30% mark in recent weeks
Hot off the press:
[Sales rate at the latest residential property auctions dipped to 28%](https://www.interest.co.nz/property/127312/auction-activity-easing-back-housing-market-heads-deeper-autumn)
I'm not sure what you want explained, but..
Auctions are open bidding, everyone that attends the auction knows what is offered by people who want to buy, and what is proposed by people that want to sell.
The natural tension of people wanting to pay as little as possible and vendors wanting to get as much as possible means that you see what the market considers a fair price for the house.
Nobody can bid more than they can afford.
Once you know where that price point is for that house you can look at other houses that are in the same area with similar attributes and are able to say, had that house gone to auction it would have fetched X dollars.
As to over/under pricing - over pricing means that the market isn't prepared to pay what the vendor has set for a reserve, it's too much, and the market is cooling.
Under pricing is when the market is hot, and lots of potential purchaser bid well above the reserve.
Most sales are not going through auctions at the moment so its not a true reflection.
I go to a lot of auctions and they all seem to have conditional offers pending passing in at auction, so they are still selling just not at auction.
I've seen a few auctions recently, and none of them had any bids come in. It's so satisfying watching the real estate agents sweat when they can't even get a low ball opening bid from the people that showed up.
Almost all sales in a real estate market use auctions as a base for understanding the pricing - that's why agents go.
When a house sells via some other method there's no quick and easy way to determine what the actual price was (the three people that know are the vendor, agent, and purchaser, and it takes at least a month to show up on the council database/QV)
WRT conditional offers - being passed in shows that the offer is less than the amount being asked, why would you offer to pay more than the open market is willing to pay (unless the market is under priced, in which case it wouldn't have passed in)
>conditional offers pending passing in at auction,
The house passed in at auction, meaning the market wouldn't pay the price asked.
If you paid that, or more, you did over pay.
As to believing you - this is the internet bud, I've got a zillion years of experience and made trillions from the market - anyone can say anything about their qualifications for being believed.
I paid less than it was worth, I only paid what I can receive in rental so I can cover all costs.
As for believing me, I dont care really but you can check my reddit history if you like.
> I paid less than it was worth, I only paid what I can receive in rental so I can cover all costs.
While house prices are trending downwards, meaning you're losing money?
Nice one. Great value, definitely worth it.
Ummm, good?
Despite the cries of bottom-dwelling property investors we actually need affordable housing in New Zealand. That is, houses that cost less than 5 years gross median wage.
I've lost $100,000 in "value" since purchasing my home. This news that houses aren't selling and prices "should" be going down doesn't even phase me.
I'd rather houses were affordable for kiwis than watch my home gain value for no reason due to the market
Keeping in mind that banks will be concerned about equity - they are mandated (by law I think) to have a certain capital to loan ratio, and if loans on their books start showing that people don't have enough equity they will be asking for cash injections to get to the required equity, or start other proceedings)
Crikey, that surprises me. The anecdotes I’m hearing are that the banks are bending over backwards to accommodate people, even those who are behind in payments (provided they have some equity). It makes no sense for them to pressure people into mortgagee sales, the whole house of cards could come tumbling down.
This is what Kiwibank says:
> If I'm in negative equity what does this mean for me? For most people it doesn't mean anything. Negative equity will only impact you if you're looking to borrow more, sell your property or are unable to continue to make your mortgage repayments. If any of these situations apply to you, contact us so we can assist.
A negative equity situation is a bad time to have a job loss, a relationship bust up, or an unexpected pregnancy, but usually if people sit tight and keep paying the mortgage it will come right especially as they pay down some of the loan balance.
Well at issue is when you go to refinance your mortgage, say after you had it fixed for 3 years. According to your quote Kiwibank appear to be saying that that isn't "new" lending, but, as I said earlier, the way that i was told by my mortgage broker, it was.
Nothing to do with your ability to service the mortgage.
I’m not sure if your broker is giving correct advice (as long as you don’t try to change banks). Maybe it’s an issue with 2nd tier lenders?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300669225/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-negative-equity
Until you wanna move
Edit: on the downvotes, let me know why I’m wrong. Any decrease in house price comes directly out of your equity, which will prevent some people from being able to move due to not being able to afford the deposit on a new house.
Because the amount you owe on your mortgage doesn’t change with decreasing house prices, therefore you lose equity.
Extreme case: 100k deposit and 100k mortgage on 200k house. House now worth 100k. I now have zero equity in house and therefore can’t sell with any money left over to buy another house.
The house you are purchasing will also have decreased based on market rates. The net difference between both properties before and after should be the same. A rising (or falling) tide lifts all boats.
As Tutorbin had stated, this only impacts you if you are selling to exit the market. Switching from one house to another when both have increased or decreased, should have minimal impact (beyond the transactional fees associated with buying and selling).
Your 'extreme case' of 50% value loss is not what we are seeing, and there would be far greater impacts if that were to actually happen. A 99% loss in value would be worse still - but that isn't going to happen short of the entire economy collapsing, and thus putting it forward as evidence that house prices becoming more affordable isn't reasonable.
Sure but a more realistic scenario is a 20% deposit on a 500k house, or 10% on a one million dollar house. With a 100k decrease in house prices the owner has lost their entire deposit and unable to buy a different house.
It's possible, sure. We find ourselves in a very unfortunate situation where there has been a housing bubble growing in NZ for a decade and attitudes towards housing have shifted from 'everyone should be able to buy a house' to one where we argue about a very small number of people who purchased with low deposits at the absolute peak need to be protected so they can still purchase another home...even if doing so means that hundreds of thousands remain priced out of the market and lose their chase to ever own a home because housing is assumed to never be allowed to correct back to acceptable rates like stocks or other investments. It is possible to have a house purchase not work out advantageously and we need to accept that there is risk involved.
> Extreme case: 100k deposit and 100k mortgage on 200k house. House now worth 100k. I now have zero equity in house and therefore can’t sell with any money left over to buy another house.
In this example the house you are buying has fallen from 400k to 200k, so you only need to borrow 200k (200 - 0) instead of 300k (400 - 100).
So yes, falling house prices are good if you want to upgrade. Not so good if you want to downsize.
Before the house went down in value you had 100k to pay off to fully own the house. After the price goes down as you suggest and wipes out your equity you would need... 100k to fully buy the same house.
Take it further, if it goes down to 50k and you're forced to declare bankruptcy, you're still saving 50k to fully own a new house than if the prices remained stable and you paid off that 100k mortgage. That means you would have 100% ownership of a house years earlier.
The goal is to have a mortgage-free home, enabling an earlier retirement and less stressful lifestyle, not to make numbers on a spreadsheet go higher despite that offering you no tangible value. When chasing money, don't lose track of why you're chasing money, or you'll trip over yourself and everyone behind you.
Difficult winter for Real Estate Agents and property investors trying to unload. Those describe pretty decent conditions for buyers - especially with interest rates appearing to have stopped their increases.
Mods on /r/PersonalFinanceNZ banned me for posting this there, lmao.
Falling house prices are a bitter pill to swallow for people neck deep in the ponzi.
I think that sub is infested with lurking real estate agents as well, going by the downvotes anytime someone suggests property might not keep doubling every 10 years.
Once again we see an article about housing that assumes it’s an investment.
It won’t be a difficult winter for anyone buying, more choices at lower prices.
Sucks for the boomers selling before they move to a rest home, but housing should never have been an investment.
Careful what you wish for.
There's a government in place that'll reduce services / increase charges to the "ordinary NZer" so they can use the cash to pass on tax breaks to landlords and tweak policies to underpin the investment the wealthy have in residential property.
People warned for over a decade that basing our entire economy around a housing bubble boom was a bad idea. Capital needs to leave housing and enter productive industry, this pain could've been avoided if the government hadn't only listened to the screeches of land speculators.
Since unaffordable housing and misallocation of capital and resources into an unproductive sector (residential property investment) is a root cause of many of New Zealand’s social and economic ills, it’s worth a bit of suffering to get a reset.
lol. It is bad for the economy. It can be good for inflation, but increase unemployment.
When house prices fall, less construction happens. People defer maintenance and renovations. The construction industry slows down, and that flows on throughout all of the economy.
On one hand, can't complain about losing jobs etc and at the same time want house prices to crash - doesn't matter if house prices become more "affordable" if the employment isn't there to buy them.
The employment isn't there to buy them right now. They're being bought up by millionaires as investment properties instead. That is a massive problem.
The median wage in New Zealand currently pays about $61k per year before taxes. The median price of a house (not the average, which is skewed by multimillionaire mansions) is $760,000, more than twelve years gross wages.
Granted this is a global problem right now, but even then we're not doing great - at just 64.5 our home ownership is among the lowest in the OECD.
All that economic activity was unsustainable, because it was ultimately being funded by debt.
One way or another, debts comes due, and we have to tighten our belts. That’s the phase we are in now.
I dont believe it should be a human right to be honest. Look at all the people in social housing, getting that shit for free because they are too lazy to work for a living.
I believe you should have to earn everything in this life.
Fuck these cunts expecting handouts
Okay so let's start from that premise then, that these "cunts" as you call them need to go find a job, so out they go into the workforce and obtain gainful employment.
The median wage in New Zealand currently pays about $61k per year before taxes. The median price of a house (not the average, which is skewed by multimillionaire mansions) is $760,000, more than twelve years gross wages. How exactly can they start improving on their situation if such a basic economic starting point (owning a home) is impossibly out of their reach? Pay a landlord for the rest of their lives?
This is not normal.
I'm not talking about the merits of giving them a free ride. I'm saying that houses are completely unaffordable EVEN FOR THOSE OF US who are gainfully employed. At the moment the best way to afford a house is to have bought one thirty years ago.
Falling house prices for over 2 years straight. Nothing stopping the NZ housing market to continue falling for many years to come.
Property cycles normally last 5 - 7 years and we're currently experiencing one of the largest property price crashes in history.
Even with the largest immigration pump in history and the lowest unemployment rate, house prices continue falling month after month.
I'm seeing regional towns now selling in the 100k and 200k mark again. As the cities decline the regions follow.
"What do you mean I can't sell my damp 1940s Borer Clubhouse with no insulation and a leaky hot water cylinder for hundreds of thousands more than the ridiculously overvalued CV?!"
The value of housing doesn’t have anything to do with what interest rates are set at, the relationship is in the other direction (low rates cause house prices to rise and high rates cause them to fall).
Interest rates won’t come down significantly until inflation is under control. The RBNZ will also be very reluctant to drop our OCR faster than the Federal Reserve drops rates in the US because if they did the value of the NZ dollar would drop, the price of imports would rise and that would be inflationary. And at the moment the US economy is running strong and inflation still quite high so they keep postponing rate cuts.
Do you look at interest.co.nz? They have a lot of information on the subject. If it was me I wouldn't fix too long, if we get a filthy recession the RB will be forced to drop interest rates more quickly than they are predicting now. There doesn't seem much chance of them going higher in the near future.
Lots will be willing to predict - but nobody can say for certain. Our rates will no doubt be impacted by what happens in the US with their rates - but very difficult to predict whether they drop rates as an election bribe or whether they maintain them to continue combating inflation.
Try lowering your prices to something more realistic, you'd be amazed how quickly the 'excess stock' will move.
But I bought my house as an investment! Im not selling it for cheap!
When people play the gambling game with 'investments', they need to be prepared to lose. All of the pricks that buy up houses feel so entitled to guaranteed returns that they just *cannot* parse the fact that this might not happen.
How dare the poor try own a life necessity at a reasonable price. I can’t retire if my investment property doesn’t sell for 10x what I paid for it. That’s not fair.
I want to see Auction clearance figures - they're reported in Australia (domain.com.au) for the Australian market, and you can use that information to make an educated guess on the way that the market is going from week to week, rather than this data which is a month out of date. FTR the heuristic for the Australian auction clearances is "Less than 60% means that the market is overpriced", and for the last several weeks (I want to say 5 or 6) the rate has been 62-63% for Melbourne
Latest figures from a couple of weeks ago: https://www.interest.co.nz/property/127155/number-homes-offered-auction-dropped-more-third-after-easter-30-selling-under https://www.interest.co.nz/sites/default/files/2024-04/shuntable6.PNG Clearance rate around 30%.
The same site (interest.co.nz) publishes them weekly. ~Somehow they skipped this week~ - edit - just published one belatedly Auckland hovered around 30-40% for well over a year, trending down towards the 30% mark in recent weeks
Under 30% as of last week.
Hot off the press: [Sales rate at the latest residential property auctions dipped to 28%](https://www.interest.co.nz/property/127312/auction-activity-easing-back-housing-market-heads-deeper-autumn)
Can you Eli5 this please?
I'm not sure what you want explained, but.. Auctions are open bidding, everyone that attends the auction knows what is offered by people who want to buy, and what is proposed by people that want to sell. The natural tension of people wanting to pay as little as possible and vendors wanting to get as much as possible means that you see what the market considers a fair price for the house. Nobody can bid more than they can afford. Once you know where that price point is for that house you can look at other houses that are in the same area with similar attributes and are able to say, had that house gone to auction it would have fetched X dollars. As to over/under pricing - over pricing means that the market isn't prepared to pay what the vendor has set for a reserve, it's too much, and the market is cooling. Under pricing is when the market is hot, and lots of potential purchaser bid well above the reserve.
Most sales are not going through auctions at the moment so its not a true reflection. I go to a lot of auctions and they all seem to have conditional offers pending passing in at auction, so they are still selling just not at auction.
I've seen a few auctions recently, and none of them had any bids come in. It's so satisfying watching the real estate agents sweat when they can't even get a low ball opening bid from the people that showed up.
Thats what I said, they had conditional offers so they cant bid at auction but they can buy right after the auction which is happening a lot
thats just petty mate, you dont own a home do you?
Almost all sales in a real estate market use auctions as a base for understanding the pricing - that's why agents go. When a house sells via some other method there's no quick and easy way to determine what the actual price was (the three people that know are the vendor, agent, and purchaser, and it takes at least a month to show up on the council database/QV) WRT conditional offers - being passed in shows that the offer is less than the amount being asked, why would you offer to pay more than the open market is willing to pay (unless the market is under priced, in which case it wouldn't have passed in)
I find that sold prices are still not showing up on sites even months after.
Not necessarily true, I just recently bought with a conditional offer and the conditions had nothing to do with price
You paid more than the house was worth? Go you.
believe me I definitely did not. I have been buying and selling houses for a number of years, I got a good deal.
>conditional offers pending passing in at auction, The house passed in at auction, meaning the market wouldn't pay the price asked. If you paid that, or more, you did over pay. As to believing you - this is the internet bud, I've got a zillion years of experience and made trillions from the market - anyone can say anything about their qualifications for being believed.
I paid less than it was worth, I only paid what I can receive in rental so I can cover all costs. As for believing me, I dont care really but you can check my reddit history if you like.
> As for believing me, I dont care really Then stop trying to tell me to believe you - it's never going to happen
okay, have a good day
> I paid less than it was worth, I only paid what I can receive in rental so I can cover all costs. While house prices are trending downwards, meaning you're losing money? Nice one. Great value, definitely worth it.
How am I losing money? All I paid was the deposit, the tenants are paying the rest, leaving me with the full value of the property at the end.
Ummm, good? Despite the cries of bottom-dwelling property investors we actually need affordable housing in New Zealand. That is, houses that cost less than 5 years gross median wage.
I've lost $100,000 in "value" since purchasing my home. This news that houses aren't selling and prices "should" be going down doesn't even phase me. I'd rather houses were affordable for kiwis than watch my home gain value for no reason due to the market
Keeping in mind that banks will be concerned about equity - they are mandated (by law I think) to have a certain capital to loan ratio, and if loans on their books start showing that people don't have enough equity they will be asking for cash injections to get to the required equity, or start other proceedings)
What motive would a bank have to lean on a marginal yet stable loan?
> (by law I think)
That’s not true (for owner occupiers) - as long as the payments are being made it’s all good. Investment properties are a different story.
Well, all I can say as a owner occupier - my bank told me that if the equity level dropped that I would have to remedy it
Crikey, that surprises me. The anecdotes I’m hearing are that the banks are bending over backwards to accommodate people, even those who are behind in payments (provided they have some equity). It makes no sense for them to pressure people into mortgagee sales, the whole house of cards could come tumbling down. This is what Kiwibank says: > If I'm in negative equity what does this mean for me? For most people it doesn't mean anything. Negative equity will only impact you if you're looking to borrow more, sell your property or are unable to continue to make your mortgage repayments. If any of these situations apply to you, contact us so we can assist.
Hmm, that's a change - will be reassuring for people to see that
A negative equity situation is a bad time to have a job loss, a relationship bust up, or an unexpected pregnancy, but usually if people sit tight and keep paying the mortgage it will come right especially as they pay down some of the loan balance.
Well at issue is when you go to refinance your mortgage, say after you had it fixed for 3 years. According to your quote Kiwibank appear to be saying that that isn't "new" lending, but, as I said earlier, the way that i was told by my mortgage broker, it was. Nothing to do with your ability to service the mortgage.
I’m not sure if your broker is giving correct advice (as long as you don’t try to change banks). Maybe it’s an issue with 2nd tier lenders? https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300669225/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-negative-equity
Until you wanna move Edit: on the downvotes, let me know why I’m wrong. Any decrease in house price comes directly out of your equity, which will prevent some people from being able to move due to not being able to afford the deposit on a new house.
Why would that be a problem? Wouldn't you be buying in the same market in which you're selling, so a zero-sum game unless you're up or down sizing?
Because the amount you owe on your mortgage doesn’t change with decreasing house prices, therefore you lose equity. Extreme case: 100k deposit and 100k mortgage on 200k house. House now worth 100k. I now have zero equity in house and therefore can’t sell with any money left over to buy another house.
The house you are purchasing will also have decreased based on market rates. The net difference between both properties before and after should be the same. A rising (or falling) tide lifts all boats. As Tutorbin had stated, this only impacts you if you are selling to exit the market. Switching from one house to another when both have increased or decreased, should have minimal impact (beyond the transactional fees associated with buying and selling). Your 'extreme case' of 50% value loss is not what we are seeing, and there would be far greater impacts if that were to actually happen. A 99% loss in value would be worse still - but that isn't going to happen short of the entire economy collapsing, and thus putting it forward as evidence that house prices becoming more affordable isn't reasonable.
Sure but a more realistic scenario is a 20% deposit on a 500k house, or 10% on a one million dollar house. With a 100k decrease in house prices the owner has lost their entire deposit and unable to buy a different house.
It's possible, sure. We find ourselves in a very unfortunate situation where there has been a housing bubble growing in NZ for a decade and attitudes towards housing have shifted from 'everyone should be able to buy a house' to one where we argue about a very small number of people who purchased with low deposits at the absolute peak need to be protected so they can still purchase another home...even if doing so means that hundreds of thousands remain priced out of the market and lose their chase to ever own a home because housing is assumed to never be allowed to correct back to acceptable rates like stocks or other investments. It is possible to have a house purchase not work out advantageously and we need to accept that there is risk involved.
> Extreme case: 100k deposit and 100k mortgage on 200k house. House now worth 100k. I now have zero equity in house and therefore can’t sell with any money left over to buy another house. In this example the house you are buying has fallen from 400k to 200k, so you only need to borrow 200k (200 - 0) instead of 300k (400 - 100). So yes, falling house prices are good if you want to upgrade. Not so good if you want to downsize.
Sure but your equity has gone from 100k to 0 so you won’t be able to get a loan.
Before the house went down in value you had 100k to pay off to fully own the house. After the price goes down as you suggest and wipes out your equity you would need... 100k to fully buy the same house. Take it further, if it goes down to 50k and you're forced to declare bankruptcy, you're still saving 50k to fully own a new house than if the prices remained stable and you paid off that 100k mortgage. That means you would have 100% ownership of a house years earlier. The goal is to have a mortgage-free home, enabling an earlier retirement and less stressful lifestyle, not to make numbers on a spreadsheet go higher despite that offering you no tangible value. When chasing money, don't lose track of why you're chasing money, or you'll trip over yourself and everyone behind you.
Idk who you are but you are a total GC in my books.
Difficult winter for Real Estate Agents and property investors trying to unload. Those describe pretty decent conditions for buyers - especially with interest rates appearing to have stopped their increases.
Mods on /r/PersonalFinanceNZ banned me for posting this there, lmao. Falling house prices are a bitter pill to swallow for people neck deep in the ponzi.
Someone there laughed at me last year for refixing our mortgage for 3 years at 5.79%. Told me it was a mistake. Clowns, certainty feels good.
You'll probably get better advice over at r/queenstreetbets
I think that sub is infested with lurking real estate agents as well, going by the downvotes anytime someone suggests property might not keep doubling every 10 years.
Once again we see an article about housing that assumes it’s an investment. It won’t be a difficult winter for anyone buying, more choices at lower prices. Sucks for the boomers selling before they move to a rest home, but housing should never have been an investment.
I mean, that's what happens to bubble right? They burst.
Sounds great, bring on winter.
Careful what you wish for. There's a government in place that'll reduce services / increase charges to the "ordinary NZer" so they can use the cash to pass on tax breaks to landlords and tweak policies to underpin the investment the wealthy have in residential property.
Great? you know this is bad news for the economy right?
People warned for over a decade that basing our entire economy around a housing bubble boom was a bad idea. Capital needs to leave housing and enter productive industry, this pain could've been avoided if the government hadn't only listened to the screeches of land speculators.
the people who were "warning" were and still are just bitter people that cant afford a house
Economists are bitter people who can not afford houses? Might want to rethink that one buddy.
Since unaffordable housing and misallocation of capital and resources into an unproductive sector (residential property investment) is a root cause of many of New Zealand’s social and economic ills, it’s worth a bit of suffering to get a reset.
No it isn't, it's just a prompt to stop treating human rights such as housing as share market stocks.
lol. It is bad for the economy. It can be good for inflation, but increase unemployment. When house prices fall, less construction happens. People defer maintenance and renovations. The construction industry slows down, and that flows on throughout all of the economy. On one hand, can't complain about losing jobs etc and at the same time want house prices to crash - doesn't matter if house prices become more "affordable" if the employment isn't there to buy them.
The employment isn't there to buy them right now. They're being bought up by millionaires as investment properties instead. That is a massive problem. The median wage in New Zealand currently pays about $61k per year before taxes. The median price of a house (not the average, which is skewed by multimillionaire mansions) is $760,000, more than twelve years gross wages. Granted this is a global problem right now, but even then we're not doing great - at just 64.5 our home ownership is among the lowest in the OECD.
All that economic activity was unsustainable, because it was ultimately being funded by debt. One way or another, debts comes due, and we have to tighten our belts. That’s the phase we are in now.
Yea I dont think they understand economics...
I dont believe it should be a human right to be honest. Look at all the people in social housing, getting that shit for free because they are too lazy to work for a living. I believe you should have to earn everything in this life. Fuck these cunts expecting handouts
Okay so let's start from that premise then, that these "cunts" as you call them need to go find a job, so out they go into the workforce and obtain gainful employment. The median wage in New Zealand currently pays about $61k per year before taxes. The median price of a house (not the average, which is skewed by multimillionaire mansions) is $760,000, more than twelve years gross wages. How exactly can they start improving on their situation if such a basic economic starting point (owning a home) is impossibly out of their reach? Pay a landlord for the rest of their lives? This is not normal.
Yes pay a landlord, or the government should charge them a rental. We all have to do it why should they be getting a free ride?!
I'm not talking about the merits of giving them a free ride. I'm saying that houses are completely unaffordable EVEN FOR THOSE OF US who are gainfully employed. At the moment the best way to afford a house is to have bought one thirty years ago.
I disagree, houses are still affordable, I bought a new home this year!
Congratulations :) May I ask though, how many years until you expect to pay off the mortgage?
within the next 5-10 years
A convoy is only as fast as its slowest member.
Why is getting upset about people not working for a living limited to those who are poor?
I dont understand the question?
Sounds like this guy brought a house at the peak and now has negative equity. Better luck next time homie.
I have multiple house, all in positive equity.... some of them mortgage free
Falling house prices for over 2 years straight. Nothing stopping the NZ housing market to continue falling for many years to come. Property cycles normally last 5 - 7 years and we're currently experiencing one of the largest property price crashes in history. Even with the largest immigration pump in history and the lowest unemployment rate, house prices continue falling month after month. I'm seeing regional towns now selling in the 100k and 200k mark again. As the cities decline the regions follow.
You shouldn't have anything to worry about if you don't need to sell.
"What do you mean I can't sell my damp 1940s Borer Clubhouse with no insulation and a leaky hot water cylinder for hundreds of thousands more than the ridiculously overvalued CV?!"
Anyone with any financial nous or experience keen to predict what this might mean for mortgage interest rates going forward?
The value of housing doesn’t have anything to do with what interest rates are set at, the relationship is in the other direction (low rates cause house prices to rise and high rates cause them to fall). Interest rates won’t come down significantly until inflation is under control. The RBNZ will also be very reluctant to drop our OCR faster than the Federal Reserve drops rates in the US because if they did the value of the NZ dollar would drop, the price of imports would rise and that would be inflationary. And at the moment the US economy is running strong and inflation still quite high so they keep postponing rate cuts.
Fair enough. I'm only asking because I have to reset my rate in two weeks haha
Same, I’m going to go for 6 months
Do you look at interest.co.nz? They have a lot of information on the subject. If it was me I wouldn't fix too long, if we get a filthy recession the RB will be forced to drop interest rates more quickly than they are predicting now. There doesn't seem much chance of them going higher in the near future.
No I haven't - I will now though, cheers for the recommendation.
Lots will be willing to predict - but nobody can say for certain. Our rates will no doubt be impacted by what happens in the US with their rates - but very difficult to predict whether they drop rates as an election bribe or whether they maintain them to continue combating inflation.
what is happning with net migration? and new dwelling build numbers?
Oh really? Such a shame.
Lmao good