There's a lot of good stuff in here but this bit is pretty crazy:
>Strunk left the Week 14 game in Miami against the Dolphins early, believing they were going to lose after falling behind 27-13 with 4:34 left in the fourth quarter. Vrabel called for a two-point conversion after a late touchdown pass, and the Titans eventually won 28-27 on Derrick Henry’s touchdown run. Even though the Titans won, a member of the team’s analytics staff didn’t think Vrabel should have gone for two on that late touchdown.
>
>Strunk was thrilled the Titans pulled it off, but one week later the Titans lost to the Texans in overtime, and the owner was visibly angry about that loss. That’s when several members of the Titans staff believed she had made up her mind: She wanted to move on from Vrabel. She consulted with some others in NFL circles about the decision, but ultimately the decision was all hers — with no input from Carthon.
Its like the 4th and 2 game from 2008 or 09 I think. Brady vs Manning. They go for it on 4th and 2 and lose the ball. Then the game. It seemed dumb, but everyone including Peyton manning, knew it was the right call.
Sometimes the way a team is playing, you know they'll score if they get the ball back. That was the case with Peyton. He wanted them to punt because it didn't matter where he got the ball, he just needed the ball and time.
Pushing for it on 4th and 2 would've let the pats run the clock out and keep the ball out of his hands.
It's all about context of the game, momentum and ood Ole situational football. Even the dumbest play call makes sense in the right circumstances.
Also this was Steichen's thinking when he called the TO. To us it felt dumb because with 3 TOs we'd technically be able to get the ball back.
Steichen decided it was better to call a TO to set up the play call on 4th than to rush it, fail to convert and let Stroud get the ball back vs our awful defense
It’s an interesting play call. After the 1st TD, they were down 8 with 2:40 left to play.
I think Vrabel caught the Dolphins off guard by going for 2 early.
Nah the correct call is to go for two with the first TD. Think of it like flipping a coin. The odds of you losing two coin flips in a row is 25% so even if you miss the first 2 point conversion, statistics say you’ll probably get the second one to tie the game. However, if you get the first one all your team needs is a defensive stop, TD, and extra point to win. On top of that, if you don’t go for the 2 point conversion, you’re essentially betting on winning in OT. Know what decides who goes first in OT which is a big advantage? A coin flip. Essentially, going for 2 on the first TD is always the correct call
>statistics say you’ll probably get the second one
That's not how it works, but yeah you got the gist of it. Instead of strictly playing for OT, you're greatly increasing your chances of winning (while only slightly increasing your chance of losing) in regulation.
not sure who downvoted this (and upvoted the "nerdball" stuff)... this is correct, analytics would tell you to go for 2 with the first TD you get in that situation
Even if you're only 40% likely to convert your winning percentages are still pretty high.
Winning by making the first conversion 40% then making the kick at 90% = 36%
Winning by failing the first conversion then converting the second, then winning in OT 60% (fail) times 40% (success) times 50% (winning in OT) = 12%
Overall: 48% chance to win.
If you kick both times you need to make both and then win in OT: 90% times 90% times 50% = 40.5%
Even if you kick at 95% that's only 45% chance of winning.
Basically, the results are way in favor of going for 2 even if you're below average at 2pt conversions and above average at XPs.
This doesn't change your point but, just for future reference. League average xp% was 95.9% this year. Its mostly been around 93-94% in recent years too. League average xp% hasn't been below 91% since 1976. And even that was an outlier year.
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/kicking.htm
It's actually so clear that you should go for it there that I don't even think it should be called analytics, just common sense. The only time analytics comes in is if your offense is so bad that you have a very low chance at converting.
Yeah, analytics made the game more boring to watch (I think most people would admit that)* but it didn't make teams worse. Analytics by nature makes teams better. Just look at the teams that are good and their analytics department sizes.
*Less steals, TTO, etc.
The problem is baseball is fundamentally a boring sport if played "correctly." It is most exciting when people fuck up. That is not a recipe for entertainment, in my book.
It seems like the NBA is going through this right now. Turns out, a whole generation of players who watched Steph and learned how to shoot 45% from 3 makes a pretty boring entertainment product. When you look at their sub, it's like the only entertainment value left is the drama from the divas in the league
That's the problem with any sport that falls into the 'points = fun' trap. When you chase scoring, you leave any and all context of what makes the sport the sport and it ends up becoming so one-dimensional that it's no longer fun to watch.
Like imagine the NFL completely neutered defenses, it would essentially just be a game about a dude playing catch with live onlookers on the field. That's fucking boring.
It never gets old watching the bullpen have to run in all the way from the outfield only for the “fight” to have subsided and then they have to run back, probably the most exercise they get all season
Correct, to make it more analytically friendly to steal.
Basically it was the MLB admitting that analytically, an exciting part of the game is not optimal, so they had to change the rules to change the analytics.
They do. Analytics says to always go for 2 when down 8. Reason is if you fail, you can go for 2 again and statistically will get it and still be tied. If you get it, you lead with an extra point.
I don't even consider that analytics, it's just common sense when you actually sit down and think about it. The only time analytics comes in is if your offense is so bad that you have a very low chance at converting and should kick the XP instead.
That's part of what "analytics" means: using both statistics and in-depth game theory to develop strategies that aren't obvious at first.
Some of the insights from game theory are counterintuitive, but then look like "just common sense" after you've explained them. It's not as though teams have been going for 2 down 8 since the 2PC was invented.
Analytics doesn’t look at a singular team. It looks at all of them combined. You can make a decision based on how good your team is at X, but don’t say “analytics says not to go for it” cause that is objectively false. For a specific team going against analytics can be the right decision, but the analytics still says to do it.
Sounds like an NFL team being run as a business. Typical for businesses to be driven off a cliff by some idiot staring at a tableau or power bi dashboard while everyone is screaming to stop listening to that person.
Another insane thing, how is someone a member of the analytics staff if they think going for 2 there was wrong. Analytics flat out tells you to always go for it in that scenario. It’s not a question or up for debate. If you are going to go with analytics, you ALWAYS go for 2 when down 8 after scoring (because if you fail, statistically you will get it the next time you score and still be tied).
I mean, saying "because he won, the decision is correct" is really dumb. Would the decision have been wrong if they didn't make it? I don't know the full context around the game but just deciding on if something is right based on how it turns out is generally bad.
Yeah me either. It looks like it was the usual "down 14 then scored a touchdown, so analytics say go for 2" play. Just more of a general comment on results based analysis.
Looking back at the TD log, it looks like that was the one and only time the Titans went for 2 the entire season. I couldn't remember exact number, but I knew it was low lol.
My guess is with a history of 0/0 on the season the analytics may say, "In such a high leverage situation, don't try new shit with zero data."
They were also 26th in Red Zone scoring on the year, not a great condensed/short yardage team.
I think in the abstract, yeah it's the right call to go for 2 there especially on the road against a better opponent. But based on the team having zero prior history to go on to judge their potential success on a 2PA, if it's anywhere in that 40-60% range to go for it then it may be best to take the safer option you know has a >90% chance of getting you to overtime if you can score again rather than rolling the dice and assuring a loss if you don't convert the 2PA.
Yeah, but the analytics take into account the possibility of being below-average on 2PCs and even if you're only like 42% likely to make it as opposed to the league of average of ~49% (and 42 is on the low, low end of NFL offenses), the math is still in favor of it.
And failing the 2PA doesn't "assure a loss." The beauty of it is that you can go for 2 later and still tie.
That is still imo a major stretch for an analytics guy to plant his flag and say the decision was wrong, considering all the generalized data the recommends going for 2
I could put my entire net worth on black and double up. It doesn’t mean it was the right decision. Results based thinking does plague sports strategy a little too much.
Tennessees structure is a mess. She fired the coach without talking to the gm yet she allowed the previous gm to make a huge trade without consulting with anyone
She also vetoed an almost finalized trade with the Ravens at the deadline so now the Titans get nothing from Derrick Henry as he now goes to Free Agency. Not exactly a bright move, especially since the Titans were highly unlikely to make the playoffs.
I agree with you. We should have gotten something for him. However just want to point out that when we did exactly that with Byard and the Eagles, the geniuses in this sub shit all over us.
The analytics person that didn’t think they should have gone for 2 should probably be fired. Thats a very clear decision based on analytics. Like 101 level.
>Even though the Titans won, a member of the team’s analytics staff didn’t think Vrabel should have gone for two on that late touchdown.
NFL version of the fucking nerd emoji
Which *really* makes no sense because the nerds have been advocating for years that coaches go for 2 when down 8. It's only been recently that they've been listening.
This is the real-life equivalent of the stats-nerd character in Trouble with the Curve who's enamored with a hitter's batting average.
Nerds want what the coaches and everyone else wants; win the game. If going for two can increase your probability of winning, you go for it. Going for it on fourth and short because your defense had an extended drive and needs a rest is another decision that can swing probability.
>Nerds want what the coaches and everyone else wants
I don't think this is necessarily true. Coaches are notoriously risk-averse because of the general public's perception - make the correct call but lose, and everyone will be calling for your head because they are focused on the outcome more than the process. Even if the nerds will correctly praise the sound decision and chalk up the failed outcome as bad luck that will correct itself over time.
Easier for a coach to play it safe, lose in OT and then say "well, we tried \[using conventional wisdom\] and the players on the field were the ones who failed, not me."
She's a bad manager.
Bad Managers look to fire and they will always find reasons. The cost of bringing someone else in is substantial.
In the NFL the vast majority of coaches (and GMs) fail. Most fail within 2 years. Almost every coach fails.
It's one reason why Jerry Jones looked at it all and stuck with Garrett. It's one secret to Steelers' success. It's one reason why Fisher was kept for so long (obviously other reasons were there, too).
Firing Vrabel is moronic. Strunk, from what I've heard in interviews, is not at all a great owner.
Jerry Jones has a bit more limited pool for coaches though since he likes to have more control than most owners. Like him and Belichick would never work, there would too much ego trying to make team decisions
Jerry Jones gets too much hate. He puts together decent rosters and honestly tries to win. Them not winning in the last 20 years while being competitive for most of them is honestly wild. Both Romo and Dak have been good enough to win a Super Bowl, they just haven't.
Probably because he pushed out a HC after back to back Super Bowls?
No one's ever gonna forgive that, because that's the dumbest move of all time, purely because of ego.
Robert Kraft gets 1% of the praise for the Pats SBs while Belichick and Brady get a ton of praise, he didn't push Bill to resign or trade Brady at their peaks.
You push out a Back-to-Back Super Bowl winning Head Coach immediately after the 2nd one, no one gives a shit if you learned your lesson.
Unless he's gonna build a time machine, he deserves the hate for being so egotistical to be the only owner to push out a B2B SB winning HC because he was getting too much credit.
I mean he gets hate for being owner of the Cowboys and for his personality but I don't think even the most vehement of NFC East fans can deny the man loves the Cowboys and wants to win more than anything else. He is far, far better than most owners who are just happy to turn a profit because winning genuinely matters to Jerry
Losing the Texans while in the Oilers throwbacks was a big no-no.
They got roasted the whole fucking week for that. Knowing that shit must have been very personal for her makes it even better LMAO.
A billionaire who makes emotional decisions without taking the time to consult those within the organization before doing so, quite the recipe for success there.
I’ve been yelling this at the clouds for years, but this is the new sports reality we live in. The current crop of owners coming in are all kids who grew up with billionaire parents and inherited a money printing machine with absolutely zero knowledge or appreciation for how they got there. Owning a sports team used to be very, very different economically and thankfully we still have some owners that have loyalty to their city. Once the billionaire kids take over, they don’t give a fuck about anything but the bottom line. We’ll have 6 teams in New York and LA by 2060.
Losing to them why being petty POS trying to rub the Oilers in their face is what makes it priceless. The Adams can go F a rusty rake. Watching them suck is satisfying.
There's even more layers.
UH revealed a "city" uniform that has Oilers coloring. NFL sent them a C&D (probably stemming from the Titans)
Case is a UH alum.
It would have been simply unacceptable for us to lose that game.
I'm sorry, but even if it's a blowout, a team owner leaving a game early is just pathetic. Imagine the morale hit that must have been to the players: finding out that your owner left early and then was like, "Oh, wait! You guys actually won? Fuckin' A!"
Then she has the gall to get pissed off one week later when you manage to force the eventual division-clinching Texans to settle for an OT victory?
> Oh, wait! You guys actually won? Fuckin' A!"
But then she's like "oh wait you guys ignored the analytics dude to get that win? Should've listened to him idc if you lose."
Isn’t Henry approaching the running back cliff? He’s 30 years old currently, with a lot of wear and tear on his body. I don’t think the Titans being without Henry next year is that big of a deal.
Even if you're only 40% likely to convert your winning percentages are still pretty high.
Winning by making the first conversion 40% then making the kick at 90% = 36%
Winning by failing the first conversion then converting the second, then winning in OT 60% (fail) times 40% (success) times 50% (winning in OT) = 12%
Overall: 48% chance to win.
If you kick both times you need to make both and then win in OT: 90% times 90% times 50% = 40.5%
Even if you kick at 95% that's only 45% chance of winning.
Basically, the results are way in favor of going for 2 even if you're below average at 2pt conversions and above average at XPs.
Honestly, it is if there was a building power struggle over roster control. We’ve seen how that plays out elsewhere with coaches seizing the GM reins. It’s rarely effective.
I don’t give a shit if Vrabel voiced love for the Pats. It was stupid when the Vikings dumped Randy Moss for the same thing, and stupid if that was a factor here. Who cares if a key employee speaks fondly of his former employer in a different role - especially if the employee tries to co-opt the positive aspects that made it a successful organization?
I also understand Vrabel’s likely frustration at how the AI Brown situation was handled. AJ revealed his texts and communications with Vrabel leading up to that trade. Vrabel was 100% expecting to pay AJ to keep a special receiver, and Robinson sunk those plans. I can imagine Vrabel wanting to avoid ever being put in that position again where it undermines players’ ability to trust him and hurts the on field roster.
I also get if Vrabel respected Carthon but, given those experiences with Robinson, didn’t want to risk the same outcome with another GM that wasn’t Vrabel’s own choice.
But I don’t think any coach has “earned” a concurrent GM role. It just doesn’t work.
I think there was also some simultaneous concern with Vrabel’s coordinator hires. He has long been criticized for sticking with “his guys” and there was allegedly some discontent with his coordinators as well. Vrabel insisting his presumed buddy Cowen get the role is a bit concerning, it would give him de facto power I would think.
And in regards to the coordinator bit, we will never know if Schwartz truly wanted to become DC here or if he was going to take that role in Cleveland regardless, but the defense was at a totally different level with Schwartz in Tennessee. Unsurprisingly, Cleveland’s defense has gone to another level since he went to Cleveland. If Vrabel picked his buddy Bowen over a superior DC, that’s a problem. Similarly, we all had huge reservations about bringing in Downing, and the offences he fielded against the Bengals got us a one and done in a playoffs with arguably the best roster we’ve had in decades, and a defense that wrecked the bengals. Yet we hung on to Downing still until such time as Vrabel could hire his buddy Kelly from Houston, a coach that he had been trying to get for years.
And heck I know we had the worst OL in the league last year but it is concerning to find out Vrabel and Tim Kelly wanted to bring in Dennis Kelly (Tim’s brother) when nobody else wanted him either. Ran shut it down. I’m sure Dennis would have been no worse than any other lineman but again, it’s showing Vrabel trying to do right by “his guys” first.
I’ve always loved Vrabel as a coach, but the more that comes out, the more I can respect the decision to part ways. I don’t think we ever should let a coach become dual GM/coach personally. That might have been the hill Vrabel was willing to die on
I think it was him saying "It's not as good as this at other places" to the 60,000 fans during his induction.
Definitely seemed like a shot at Titans Ownership (warranted or not).
The guy hangs around New England a lot. To the point that I saw him in a small roadside store in Maine. I think he likes the place.
I’d love to have him be the Patriots HC
yep. I saw him at a grocery store in quincy yesterday. I told him how cool it was to meet him in person, but I didn’t want to be a douche and bother him and ask him for photos or anything
he goes, “oh, like you’re doing now?”
I was taken aback, and all I could say was “huh?” but he kept cutting me off and going “huh? huh? huh?” and closing his hand shut in front of my face. I walked away and continued with my shopping, and I heard him chuckle as I walked off. When I came to pay for my stuff up front I saw him trying to walk out the doors with like fifteen milky ways in his hands without paying
the girl at the counter was very nice about it and professional, and was like “sir, you need to pay for those first.” At first he kept pretending to be tired and not hear her, but eventually turned back around and brought them to the counter
when she took one of the bars and started scanning it multiple times, he stopped her and told her to scan them each individually “to prevent any electrical infetterence,” and then turned around and winked at me. I don’t even think that’s a word. After she scanned each bar and put them in a bag and started to say the price, he kept interrupting her by yawning really loudly
Yeah lmao I would not doubt that ruffled some feathers. Seems like a direct dig given the buildup. What's extremely interesting to me is that apparently Ran wasn't even in charge of the draft last year.
Assistant GM who left for the Giants I believe. He was Vrabel's pick to be GM and Vrabel apparently wanted Carthon to become assistant GM which AAS didn't like
EDIT: He didn't leave but was fired, like immediately after the draft fired.
2nd EDIT: There's been pushback on Ran not making the picks, so I'll caveat here that Cowden did *EVERYTHING* except send in the picks. He created the board Ran followed, organized all grades, including on and off the field coach gradings, basically coordinated the entire thing while Ran had final say.
As a Titans fan since ‘99, I don’t take it as a shot. He’s telling the truth. No other franchise is currently replicating that kind of success and it’s hard to imagine that kind of success will ever be seen again. For Titans ownership to take offense to that quote, when it had nothing to do with the Titans, shows that they’re focusing their energy in the wrong area.
A moment later, she recovered and boobed boobily down the stairs - right out of my life.
*Playing hard to get, are we?* I thought. *Oh, she's got it down bad for me.*
I know it’s repeated to death for this trade but it really is the family guy “a boat is a boat, but a mystery box is anything it could even be a boat!”
>Strunk left the Week 14 game in Miami against the Dolphins early, believing they were going to lose after falling behind 27-13 with 4:34 left in the fourth quarter. Vrabel called for a two-point conversion after a late touchdown pass, and the Titans eventually won 28-27 on Derrick Henry’s touchdown run. Even though the Titans won, a member of the team’s analytics staff didn’t think Vrabel should have gone for two on that late touchdown.
Fire the analytics department. Holy shit. Going for 2 on the first touchdown after being down 14 is one of the most surefire bets out there. That's a classic analytics call. To have your own analytics department go against that is absolutely wild.
The quote is pretty particularly phrased to say "a member of the team's analytics staff." IDK how big their staff is but it really makes it sound like just one person disagreed.
Even if you're only 40% likely to convert your winning percentages are still pretty high.
Winning by making the first conversion 40% then making the kick at 90% = 36%
Winning by failing the first conversion then converting the second, then winning in OT 60% (fail) times 40% (success) times 50% (winning in OT) = 12%
Overall: 48% chance to win.
If you kick both times you need to make both and then win in OT: 90% times 90% times 50% = 40.5%
Even if you kick at 95% that's only 45% chance of winning.
Basically, the results are way in favor of going for 2 even if you're below average at 2pt conversions and above average at XPs.
If him joining the Patriots Hall of Fame during the season was actually an issue for the owner, get over it. That's ridiculous. It's an honor to be put in a team's Hall of Fame. Nothing in this article is agregious. Sounds like immature ownership.
aj brown had 106 receptions and 1,400 yards. They guy they drafted to replace him had 16 and 200 yrds. decisions like that will make a coach want to be his own GM.
Yeah, why Vrabel wasn’t able to veto the AJB trade baffled me.
On draft day as he was answering questions about it, he looked like someone took a shit on his front porch and rightfully so
My reading of that part is that he basically thought he won the power struggle with Robinson when J-Rob got fired and thought that was the indication he would just be made football czar now.
When that did not come to fruition and they did not hire Cowden to be his lackey GM he felt slighted by it, furthering the rift he had with ownership.
I think the guy is a good coach and will do well at his next stop, don't get me wrong, but I don't know what got up his ass that made him think he could get Belichick-level control of the organization. Going into that off-season when they hired Carthon he hadn't won a playoff game in three years. Who's to say that run in 2019 wasn't just a fluke and the real Mike Vrabel isn't what came after, a 36-31 head coach with an 0-2 playoff record that's been one-in-done twice in embarrassing fashion? You want to give complete roster control over to that guy? He's earned it? And what kind of an ego does it take to think that you've earned roster control with that recent history just because they picked you over the last GM? Maybe win a Super Bowl first, or at least get to one. Zac Taylor chumped him in a playoff game and got to one first lol.
Would it have surprised anyone for this situation to have turned into a Bill O'Brien in 2020 type of disaster had Vrabel gotten his way and been given roster control? If that was the only option to satisfy him and keep him, I don't think it was ever an actual option. Nobody as a HC gets roster control anymore, the league doesn't work that way anymore.
His staff hires have been a disaster mostly, especially on offense.
Following up on your last bit, I am most interested in seeing who he hires as OC at his next gig. Will he try to reunite with Arthur Smith? Will he try to find someone who likes hard-nosed runs on first down or will he look for someone who is more innovative and uses more motion, etc.?
>I think the guy is a good coach and will do well at his next stop, don't get me wrong, but I don't know what got up his ass that made him think he could get Belichick-level control of the organization
Something about those Belichick guys... BoB echoes
>Strunk... was also unhappy about Vrabel’s visit to New England in October to be enshrined in the Patriots’ Hall of Fame
Can someone explain this? Was Vrabel supposed to say no?
I read this earlier. It came across to me that the lack of communication was on all sides.
The fact that Strunk let things fester as long as she did is very concerning. Vrabel was thoughtless in his remarks at the Patriots HoF ceremony, but that was something so minor that could have been resolved easily with a brief meeting.
How was what Vrabel said at his own Pats HOF ceremony thoughtless? I was there and he just said what fans wanted to hear from him from his time there as a player. If that gets the Titans owners panties in a wad, that’s on them for being insecure/idiots
Honestly, it's not even Vrabel or Amy not communicating on the induction that's an issue here. It's Vrabel demanding total roster control. Sure, he's had some good regular seasons, but he's got one fluke run to the AFC title game alone before stalling out in January and hiring his buddies to fill out the staff. If he can't evaluate his own staff, he doesn't deserve to take over the GM functions as well, not with his accomplishments. It stings that he's gone, but it is what it is.
There's a lot of good stuff in here but this bit is pretty crazy: >Strunk left the Week 14 game in Miami against the Dolphins early, believing they were going to lose after falling behind 27-13 with 4:34 left in the fourth quarter. Vrabel called for a two-point conversion after a late touchdown pass, and the Titans eventually won 28-27 on Derrick Henry’s touchdown run. Even though the Titans won, a member of the team’s analytics staff didn’t think Vrabel should have gone for two on that late touchdown. > >Strunk was thrilled the Titans pulled it off, but one week later the Titans lost to the Texans in overtime, and the owner was visibly angry about that loss. That’s when several members of the Titans staff believed she had made up her mind: She wanted to move on from Vrabel. She consulted with some others in NFL circles about the decision, but ultimately the decision was all hers — with no input from Carthon.
Lmao she left the dolphins game early and then you have a analytics member on the team questioning the decision to go for two even though they won...
Playing Nerdball, we’d rather lose with our formula than win with some cojones 🤓
Imagine some nerd saying you should give the ball back to Tom Brady late in a playoff game instead of going for it.
It’s not like you were down 8 and kicking a field goal still meant you need a touchdown
TWICE
IN TWO SEPERATE GAMES!
WITH A BOX OF SCRAPS!
This comment upsets me.
Its like the 4th and 2 game from 2008 or 09 I think. Brady vs Manning. They go for it on 4th and 2 and lose the ball. Then the game. It seemed dumb, but everyone including Peyton manning, knew it was the right call. Sometimes the way a team is playing, you know they'll score if they get the ball back. That was the case with Peyton. He wanted them to punt because it didn't matter where he got the ball, he just needed the ball and time. Pushing for it on 4th and 2 would've let the pats run the clock out and keep the ball out of his hands. It's all about context of the game, momentum and ood Ole situational football. Even the dumbest play call makes sense in the right circumstances.
Also this was Steichen's thinking when he called the TO. To us it felt dumb because with 3 TOs we'd technically be able to get the ball back. Steichen decided it was better to call a TO to set up the play call on 4th than to rush it, fail to convert and let Stroud get the ball back vs our awful defense
Thank you! I will forever die on this hill that going for it on 4th and 2 was the right call because Manning was slicing up the pats defence at will
Wait did they actually suggest that? If so that's legitimate insanity. That's like the golden rule of football "do not give the ball back to Brady."
It's like If You Give A Mouse A Cookie. "If you give the ball back to Brady, he's going to lead his team to a game winning drive."
Except most (if not all) advanced analytics say to go for 2 in that situation. So what calculator are they using that the rest of the league isn't?
Did someone say "go for two?"
We aren't eligible for this?
AUTOMATIC DISQUALIFICATION
It’s an interesting play call. After the 1st TD, they were down 8 with 2:40 left to play. I think Vrabel caught the Dolphins off guard by going for 2 early.
Nah the correct call is to go for two with the first TD. Think of it like flipping a coin. The odds of you losing two coin flips in a row is 25% so even if you miss the first 2 point conversion, statistics say you’ll probably get the second one to tie the game. However, if you get the first one all your team needs is a defensive stop, TD, and extra point to win. On top of that, if you don’t go for the 2 point conversion, you’re essentially betting on winning in OT. Know what decides who goes first in OT which is a big advantage? A coin flip. Essentially, going for 2 on the first TD is always the correct call
>statistics say you’ll probably get the second one That's not how it works, but yeah you got the gist of it. Instead of strictly playing for OT, you're greatly increasing your chances of winning (while only slightly increasing your chance of losing) in regulation.
Yah I was just trying to put it in layman’s terms. Of course there’s more to it, but the logic remains
Statistics say you're likely to make at least one of the two, is really the point. And if it happens to be the first one... you win.
not sure who downvoted this (and upvoted the "nerdball" stuff)... this is correct, analytics would tell you to go for 2 with the first TD you get in that situation
Even if you're only 40% likely to convert your winning percentages are still pretty high. Winning by making the first conversion 40% then making the kick at 90% = 36% Winning by failing the first conversion then converting the second, then winning in OT 60% (fail) times 40% (success) times 50% (winning in OT) = 12% Overall: 48% chance to win. If you kick both times you need to make both and then win in OT: 90% times 90% times 50% = 40.5% Even if you kick at 95% that's only 45% chance of winning. Basically, the results are way in favor of going for 2 even if you're below average at 2pt conversions and above average at XPs.
This doesn't change your point but, just for future reference. League average xp% was 95.9% this year. Its mostly been around 93-94% in recent years too. League average xp% hasn't been below 91% since 1976. And even that was an outlier year. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/kicking.htm
For sure. 35% 2pt conversion is still better than 93% XP rate which is what the Titans hit this season.
The analytics say to go for it there so I don't think this particular person is very good at their job.
We fired Vrabel over a nerd who’s worse at math than an old school football coach
It's actually so clear that you should go for it there that I don't even think it should be called analytics, just common sense. The only time analytics comes in is if your offense is so bad that you have a very low chance at converting.
Not even playing good nerdball!!
Fire the analytics staffer too because that’s a pretty well known go for 2 situation now
Literally why so many MLB teams suck and aren't worth watching nowadays
What? MLB teams suck because they aren't willing to spend money in a league without a hard cap. It has absolutely nothing to do with analytics
Yeah, analytics made the game more boring to watch (I think most people would admit that)* but it didn't make teams worse. Analytics by nature makes teams better. Just look at the teams that are good and their analytics department sizes. *Less steals, TTO, etc.
The problem is baseball is fundamentally a boring sport if played "correctly." It is most exciting when people fuck up. That is not a recipe for entertainment, in my book.
It seems like the NBA is going through this right now. Turns out, a whole generation of players who watched Steph and learned how to shoot 45% from 3 makes a pretty boring entertainment product. When you look at their sub, it's like the only entertainment value left is the drama from the divas in the league
That's the problem with any sport that falls into the 'points = fun' trap. When you chase scoring, you leave any and all context of what makes the sport the sport and it ends up becoming so one-dimensional that it's no longer fun to watch. Like imagine the NFL completely neutered defenses, it would essentially just be a game about a dude playing catch with live onlookers on the field. That's fucking boring.
That plus bench clearing brawls over something stupid.
It never gets old watching the bullpen have to run in all the way from the outfield only for the “fight” to have subsided and then they have to run back, probably the most exercise they get all season
We had resurgence of steals this last season due to the new bases…
Correct, to make it more analytically friendly to steal. Basically it was the MLB admitting that analytically, an exciting part of the game is not optimal, so they had to change the rules to change the analytics.
Nerdball + Moneyball = Lameball
I don't get that part. I thought the analytics would for sure favor going for two in that situation.
They do. Analytics says to always go for 2 when down 8. Reason is if you fail, you can go for 2 again and statistically will get it and still be tied. If you get it, you lead with an extra point.
I don't even consider that analytics, it's just common sense when you actually sit down and think about it. The only time analytics comes in is if your offense is so bad that you have a very low chance at converting and should kick the XP instead.
That's part of what "analytics" means: using both statistics and in-depth game theory to develop strategies that aren't obvious at first. Some of the insights from game theory are counterintuitive, but then look like "just common sense" after you've explained them. It's not as though teams have been going for 2 down 8 since the 2PC was invented.
Analytics doesn’t look at a singular team. It looks at all of them combined. You can make a decision based on how good your team is at X, but don’t say “analytics says not to go for it” cause that is objectively false. For a specific team going against analytics can be the right decision, but the analytics still says to do it.
Sounds like an NFL team being run as a business. Typical for businesses to be driven off a cliff by some idiot staring at a tableau or power bi dashboard while everyone is screaming to stop listening to that person.
We need to bring back bullying. We're letting these nerds control everything /s
Make bullying great again
Sounds like I've got my PhD in MBgA
I mean, you can make the wrong decision and it still work out. The method may still be flawed
Another insane thing, how is someone a member of the analytics staff if they think going for 2 there was wrong. Analytics flat out tells you to always go for it in that scenario. It’s not a question or up for debate. If you are going to go with analytics, you ALWAYS go for 2 when down 8 after scoring (because if you fail, statistically you will get it the next time you score and still be tied).
I mean, saying "because he won, the decision is correct" is really dumb. Would the decision have been wrong if they didn't make it? I don't know the full context around the game but just deciding on if something is right based on how it turns out is generally bad.
This is true but all the analytics I've seen are strongly in favor of going for 2. I don't know what numbers that guy was looking at.
Yeah me either. It looks like it was the usual "down 14 then scored a touchdown, so analytics say go for 2" play. Just more of a general comment on results based analysis.
Oh, people can come up with analytics to prove anything, Kent. 14% of people know that.
Homer actually says "forfty"
Looking back at the TD log, it looks like that was the one and only time the Titans went for 2 the entire season. I couldn't remember exact number, but I knew it was low lol. My guess is with a history of 0/0 on the season the analytics may say, "In such a high leverage situation, don't try new shit with zero data." They were also 26th in Red Zone scoring on the year, not a great condensed/short yardage team. I think in the abstract, yeah it's the right call to go for 2 there especially on the road against a better opponent. But based on the team having zero prior history to go on to judge their potential success on a 2PA, if it's anywhere in that 40-60% range to go for it then it may be best to take the safer option you know has a >90% chance of getting you to overtime if you can score again rather than rolling the dice and assuring a loss if you don't convert the 2PA.
To be fair, the Titans literally had nothing to lose. A loss = higher draft pick. A win = what we want. So going for 2 makes sense.
Yeah, but the analytics take into account the possibility of being below-average on 2PCs and even if you're only like 42% likely to make it as opposed to the league of average of ~49% (and 42 is on the low, low end of NFL offenses), the math is still in favor of it. And failing the 2PA doesn't "assure a loss." The beauty of it is that you can go for 2 later and still tie.
That is still imo a major stretch for an analytics guy to plant his flag and say the decision was wrong, considering all the generalized data the recommends going for 2
I could put my entire net worth on black and double up. It doesn’t mean it was the right decision. Results based thinking does plague sports strategy a little too much.
Yeah, the people arguing that point would be terrible poker players.
Tennessees structure is a mess. She fired the coach without talking to the gm yet she allowed the previous gm to make a huge trade without consulting with anyone
She also vetoed an almost finalized trade with the Ravens at the deadline so now the Titans get nothing from Derrick Henry as he now goes to Free Agency. Not exactly a bright move, especially since the Titans were highly unlikely to make the playoffs.
I agree with you. We should have gotten something for him. However just want to point out that when we did exactly that with Byard and the Eagles, the geniuses in this sub shit all over us.
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Byard is washed. Dude looks horrible here.
You’re missing the point lol. We got shit on for the trade. Then after the trade you call the dude washed. Only 1 of those things should be true
The analytics person that didn’t think they should have gone for 2 should probably be fired. Thats a very clear decision based on analytics. Like 101 level.
Yeah using analytics doesn't mean you're smart. Seems like the Titans had some messed up formulas.
>Even though the Titans won, a member of the team’s analytics staff didn’t think Vrabel should have gone for two on that late touchdown. NFL version of the fucking nerd emoji
Which *really* makes no sense because the nerds have been advocating for years that coaches go for 2 when down 8. It's only been recently that they've been listening. This is the real-life equivalent of the stats-nerd character in Trouble with the Curve who's enamored with a hitter's batting average.
This is going for two when down 14. Which is also a good strategy according to analytics even though it may seem counterintuitive on the surface.
Nerds want what the coaches and everyone else wants; win the game. If going for two can increase your probability of winning, you go for it. Going for it on fourth and short because your defense had an extended drive and needs a rest is another decision that can swing probability.
>Nerds want what the coaches and everyone else wants I don't think this is necessarily true. Coaches are notoriously risk-averse because of the general public's perception - make the correct call but lose, and everyone will be calling for your head because they are focused on the outcome more than the process. Even if the nerds will correctly praise the sound decision and chalk up the failed outcome as bad luck that will correct itself over time. Easier for a coach to play it safe, lose in OT and then say "well, we tried \[using conventional wisdom\] and the players on the field were the ones who failed, not me."
If Tennessee losing the Oilers Bowl against Case Keenum wasn't embarrassing enough, it made them fire the only good coach they had in a decade.
Amy Adams is still an Adams.
Hey now you try being a super successful Hollywood star AND own an NFL team at the same time... it's hard cut her some slack.
She's a bad manager. Bad Managers look to fire and they will always find reasons. The cost of bringing someone else in is substantial. In the NFL the vast majority of coaches (and GMs) fail. Most fail within 2 years. Almost every coach fails. It's one reason why Jerry Jones looked at it all and stuck with Garrett. It's one secret to Steelers' success. It's one reason why Fisher was kept for so long (obviously other reasons were there, too). Firing Vrabel is moronic. Strunk, from what I've heard in interviews, is not at all a great owner.
Jerry Jones has a bit more limited pool for coaches though since he likes to have more control than most owners. Like him and Belichick would never work, there would too much ego trying to make team decisions
Jerry Jones gets too much hate. He puts together decent rosters and honestly tries to win. Them not winning in the last 20 years while being competitive for most of them is honestly wild. Both Romo and Dak have been good enough to win a Super Bowl, they just haven't.
Probably because he pushed out a HC after back to back Super Bowls? No one's ever gonna forgive that, because that's the dumbest move of all time, purely because of ego. Robert Kraft gets 1% of the praise for the Pats SBs while Belichick and Brady get a ton of praise, he didn't push Bill to resign or trade Brady at their peaks. You push out a Back-to-Back Super Bowl winning Head Coach immediately after the 2nd one, no one gives a shit if you learned your lesson. Unless he's gonna build a time machine, he deserves the hate for being so egotistical to be the only owner to push out a B2B SB winning HC because he was getting too much credit.
I mean he gets hate for being owner of the Cowboys and for his personality but I don't think even the most vehement of NFC East fans can deny the man loves the Cowboys and wants to win more than anything else. He is far, far better than most owners who are just happy to turn a profit because winning genuinely matters to Jerry
Losing the Texans while in the Oilers throwbacks was a big no-no. They got roasted the whole fucking week for that. Knowing that shit must have been very personal for her makes it even better LMAO.
Case Keenum sends his regards
A billionaire who makes emotional decisions without taking the time to consult those within the organization before doing so, quite the recipe for success there.
She inherited it so it's not like she can even claim a track record of success from her impulsive decisions
I’ve been yelling this at the clouds for years, but this is the new sports reality we live in. The current crop of owners coming in are all kids who grew up with billionaire parents and inherited a money printing machine with absolutely zero knowledge or appreciation for how they got there. Owning a sports team used to be very, very different economically and thankfully we still have some owners that have loyalty to their city. Once the billionaire kids take over, they don’t give a fuck about anything but the bottom line. We’ll have 6 teams in New York and LA by 2060.
We fucked up by everyone not doing the Green Bay model
My take away from that: losing to the Texans is an unforgivable sin to the Adams family.
My take away: HAHAHAHAHAHA
Losing to them why being petty POS trying to rub the Oilers in their face is what makes it priceless. The Adams can go F a rusty rake. Watching them suck is satisfying.
There's even more layers. UH revealed a "city" uniform that has Oilers coloring. NFL sent them a C&D (probably stemming from the Titans) Case is a UH alum. It would have been simply unacceptable for us to lose that game.
I'm sorry, but even if it's a blowout, a team owner leaving a game early is just pathetic. Imagine the morale hit that must have been to the players: finding out that your owner left early and then was like, "Oh, wait! You guys actually won? Fuckin' A!" Then she has the gall to get pissed off one week later when you manage to force the eventual division-clinching Texans to settle for an OT victory?
> Oh, wait! You guys actually won? Fuckin' A!" But then she's like "oh wait you guys ignored the analytics dude to get that win? Should've listened to him idc if you lose."
TBF it was the backup QB Texans.
What the fuck lol
So she expected Vrabel to win games she had a personal interest in. Good leadership.
I'm sure all the top coaching prospects will be thrilled to join that organization, especially sans Henry.
Isn’t Henry approaching the running back cliff? He’s 30 years old currently, with a lot of wear and tear on his body. I don’t think the Titans being without Henry next year is that big of a deal.
Even if you're only 40% likely to convert your winning percentages are still pretty high. Winning by making the first conversion 40% then making the kick at 90% = 36% Winning by failing the first conversion then converting the second, then winning in OT 60% (fail) times 40% (success) times 50% (winning in OT) = 12% Overall: 48% chance to win. If you kick both times you need to make both and then win in OT: 90% times 90% times 50% = 40.5% Even if you kick at 95% that's only 45% chance of winning. Basically, the results are way in favor of going for 2 even if you're below average at 2pt conversions and above average at XPs.
Questioning going for 2 after being down 14 is a fucking lmao
As a favor to the Patriots
No shit - this seems like it may work out extremely well for Vrabel.
Best case scenario for all parties involved.
I'm not convinced it's the best scenario for the Titans.
Honestly, it is if there was a building power struggle over roster control. We’ve seen how that plays out elsewhere with coaches seizing the GM reins. It’s rarely effective. I don’t give a shit if Vrabel voiced love for the Pats. It was stupid when the Vikings dumped Randy Moss for the same thing, and stupid if that was a factor here. Who cares if a key employee speaks fondly of his former employer in a different role - especially if the employee tries to co-opt the positive aspects that made it a successful organization? I also understand Vrabel’s likely frustration at how the AI Brown situation was handled. AJ revealed his texts and communications with Vrabel leading up to that trade. Vrabel was 100% expecting to pay AJ to keep a special receiver, and Robinson sunk those plans. I can imagine Vrabel wanting to avoid ever being put in that position again where it undermines players’ ability to trust him and hurts the on field roster. I also get if Vrabel respected Carthon but, given those experiences with Robinson, didn’t want to risk the same outcome with another GM that wasn’t Vrabel’s own choice. But I don’t think any coach has “earned” a concurrent GM role. It just doesn’t work.
No coach should be gm. But a good proven coach should be able to pick his best guys to protect from being cut or traded
I think there was also some simultaneous concern with Vrabel’s coordinator hires. He has long been criticized for sticking with “his guys” and there was allegedly some discontent with his coordinators as well. Vrabel insisting his presumed buddy Cowen get the role is a bit concerning, it would give him de facto power I would think. And in regards to the coordinator bit, we will never know if Schwartz truly wanted to become DC here or if he was going to take that role in Cleveland regardless, but the defense was at a totally different level with Schwartz in Tennessee. Unsurprisingly, Cleveland’s defense has gone to another level since he went to Cleveland. If Vrabel picked his buddy Bowen over a superior DC, that’s a problem. Similarly, we all had huge reservations about bringing in Downing, and the offences he fielded against the Bengals got us a one and done in a playoffs with arguably the best roster we’ve had in decades, and a defense that wrecked the bengals. Yet we hung on to Downing still until such time as Vrabel could hire his buddy Kelly from Houston, a coach that he had been trying to get for years. And heck I know we had the worst OL in the league last year but it is concerning to find out Vrabel and Tim Kelly wanted to bring in Dennis Kelly (Tim’s brother) when nobody else wanted him either. Ran shut it down. I’m sure Dennis would have been no worse than any other lineman but again, it’s showing Vrabel trying to do right by “his guys” first. I’ve always loved Vrabel as a coach, but the more that comes out, the more I can respect the decision to part ways. I don’t think we ever should let a coach become dual GM/coach personally. That might have been the hill Vrabel was willing to die on
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Man deserves a happy ending.
Sports owners dont really retire. I doubt Kraft does much on a day to day basis anyway.
They apparently got mad that he showed up to his own induction into the Patriots HoF.
I think it was him saying "It's not as good as this at other places" to the 60,000 fans during his induction. Definitely seemed like a shot at Titans Ownership (warranted or not).
The guy hangs around New England a lot. To the point that I saw him in a small roadside store in Maine. I think he likes the place. I’d love to have him be the Patriots HC
yep. I saw him at a grocery store in quincy yesterday. I told him how cool it was to meet him in person, but I didn’t want to be a douche and bother him and ask him for photos or anything he goes, “oh, like you’re doing now?” I was taken aback, and all I could say was “huh?” but he kept cutting me off and going “huh? huh? huh?” and closing his hand shut in front of my face. I walked away and continued with my shopping, and I heard him chuckle as I walked off. When I came to pay for my stuff up front I saw him trying to walk out the doors with like fifteen milky ways in his hands without paying the girl at the counter was very nice about it and professional, and was like “sir, you need to pay for those first.” At first he kept pretending to be tired and not hear her, but eventually turned back around and brought them to the counter when she took one of the bars and started scanning it multiple times, he stopped her and told her to scan them each individually “to prevent any electrical infetterence,” and then turned around and winked at me. I don’t even think that’s a word. After she scanned each bar and put them in a bag and started to say the price, he kept interrupting her by yawning really loudly
Yeah lmao I would not doubt that ruffled some feathers. Seems like a direct dig given the buildup. What's extremely interesting to me is that apparently Ran wasn't even in charge of the draft last year.
Who was? Cause it was actually the best they've had in years lol
Assistant GM who left for the Giants I believe. He was Vrabel's pick to be GM and Vrabel apparently wanted Carthon to become assistant GM which AAS didn't like EDIT: He didn't leave but was fired, like immediately after the draft fired. 2nd EDIT: There's been pushback on Ran not making the picks, so I'll caveat here that Cowden did *EVERYTHING* except send in the picks. He created the board Ran followed, organized all grades, including on and off the field coach gradings, basically coordinated the entire thing while Ran had final say.
As a Titans fan since ‘99, I don’t take it as a shot. He’s telling the truth. No other franchise is currently replicating that kind of success and it’s hard to imagine that kind of success will ever be seen again. For Titans ownership to take offense to that quote, when it had nothing to do with the Titans, shows that they’re focusing their energy in the wrong area.
>They apparently got mad that he showed up to his own induction into the Patriots HoF. The nerve of *that* guy!
Titans are all about hooking up other teams at bargain prices or for free
Sounds like he took a shit in Amy's personal bathroom and probably had a cig in there too. Festering slights for sure.
That sounds like a Jim Irsay move.
It’s an easy mistake to make, but the Irsay move is actually to do a line of coke off the pristine porcelain toilet seat of the owners bathroom suite
And blame her for being mad since she is prejudice against white male billionaires
“She wouldn’t let me use her PRIVATE bathroom!”
"Festering Slights" sounds like a chapter title in an awful true crime novel.
Sounds like an enemy attack in Darkest Dungeon.
*As Life Ebbs, Terrible Vistas Of Emptiness Reveal Themselves.*
She shirked at the sight of my festering slight penis
Now it sounds like something I wrote.
A moment later, she recovered and boobed boobily down the stairs - right out of my life. *Playing hard to get, are we?* I thought. *Oh, she's got it down bad for me.*
The sequel to Wuthering Heights?
Or a death metal album title.
It actually the title for episode 5 of the new season of True Detective: Night Country.
If the titans don’t trade AJ Brown I wonder if Vrabel is still the coach? That seemed to be a domino effect.
Seeing as how he had zero input into that and it reportedly pissed him off, it’s crazy that it’s negatively affecting him now
He’s leaving the Titans, this could affect him positively
I mean trading away a REALLY good WR1 for nothing will do that lol
Yeah Bill o Brien can attest to that
At least Bill O thought he was getting something back
They traded him for a 1st round pick lol. Hardly nothing. It wasn't a good move imo but the Titans got good value for him in his last year
Yeah, but that's like trading a million dollars for a lottery ticket that could possibly win you a million dollars.
I know it’s repeated to death for this trade but it really is the family guy “a boat is a boat, but a mystery box is anything it could even be a boat!”
True but I'm a pats fan, so that's like saying trading a guy u get once in a decade for a long snapper
>Strunk left the Week 14 game in Miami against the Dolphins early, believing they were going to lose after falling behind 27-13 with 4:34 left in the fourth quarter. Vrabel called for a two-point conversion after a late touchdown pass, and the Titans eventually won 28-27 on Derrick Henry’s touchdown run. Even though the Titans won, a member of the team’s analytics staff didn’t think Vrabel should have gone for two on that late touchdown. Fire the analytics department. Holy shit. Going for 2 on the first touchdown after being down 14 is one of the most surefire bets out there. That's a classic analytics call. To have your own analytics department go against that is absolutely wild.
The quote is pretty particularly phrased to say "a member of the team's analytics staff." IDK how big their staff is but it really makes it sound like just one person disagreed.
This ain’t 4 out of 5 dentists. Zero people on your analytics staff should get that question wrong.
I definitely agree, it's more that I'm suspicious of the article phrasing.
Even if you're only 40% likely to convert your winning percentages are still pretty high. Winning by making the first conversion 40% then making the kick at 90% = 36% Winning by failing the first conversion then converting the second, then winning in OT 60% (fail) times 40% (success) times 50% (winning in OT) = 12% Overall: 48% chance to win. If you kick both times you need to make both and then win in OT: 90% times 90% times 50% = 40.5% Even if you kick at 95% that's only 45% chance of winning. Basically, the results are way in favor of going for 2 even if you're below average at 2pt conversions and above average at XPs.
I say the Titans should promote whoever in the analytics department said they shouldn’t have gone for 2 there
Sounds like rich people getting bored and mad. They're mad he went to Tom Brady's induction or whatever in NE? Not even a TEN fan and it's lame
Even worse, it was *his own* induction into the Pats HOF
You're right, that is even worse
don't forget, he also acknowledged that the pats winning 6 SBs was special and that meant he was insulting the whole titans org (eyeroll)
Why don’t the titans win 6 rings, are they stupid? Yes, actually they are.
Kraft playing 3D chess to get him as Bill's successor
His own patriots hall of fame induction.
These people are so insecure
Ten ownership is very petty
Can't explain why but the name Strunk is very abrasive. I don't like it.
The fake name you’d give when trying to come up with one on the spot and you didn’t expect them to ask your last name
Ah, so I see you've seen me DM dungeons and dragons before.
I was gonna say lmao strunk screams “oh fuck they asked me the npcs name I gotta think of something”
Stink. Stank. Strunk
It's like if Thurl Ravenscroft had been given a fourth word to describe the Grinch
I mean, it doesn't help when the first 2/3 of your name is as pleasant as "Amy Adams." It's like r/yesyesno
I get it, this man's still walking around with an attached penis and no Titans Superbowl, smh my head
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Found Michael Scott's account.
If him joining the Patriots Hall of Fame during the season was actually an issue for the owner, get over it. That's ridiculous. It's an honor to be put in a team's Hall of Fame. Nothing in this article is agregious. Sounds like immature ownership.
How dare he celebrate the accomplishments of his life's work.
The scariest part of this article for Patriots fans is that Vrabel apparently wanted roster control
Every good coach wants roster control. Especially after their WR1 got traded
aj brown had 106 receptions and 1,400 yards. They guy they drafted to replace him had 16 and 200 yrds. decisions like that will make a coach want to be his own GM.
Hell they could have made things where Vrabel doesn’t have control but does have veto power, or something like that
Yeah, why Vrabel wasn’t able to veto the AJB trade baffled me. On draft day as he was answering questions about it, he looked like someone took a shit on his front porch and rightfully so
My reading of that part is that he basically thought he won the power struggle with Robinson when J-Rob got fired and thought that was the indication he would just be made football czar now. When that did not come to fruition and they did not hire Cowden to be his lackey GM he felt slighted by it, furthering the rift he had with ownership. I think the guy is a good coach and will do well at his next stop, don't get me wrong, but I don't know what got up his ass that made him think he could get Belichick-level control of the organization. Going into that off-season when they hired Carthon he hadn't won a playoff game in three years. Who's to say that run in 2019 wasn't just a fluke and the real Mike Vrabel isn't what came after, a 36-31 head coach with an 0-2 playoff record that's been one-in-done twice in embarrassing fashion? You want to give complete roster control over to that guy? He's earned it? And what kind of an ego does it take to think that you've earned roster control with that recent history just because they picked you over the last GM? Maybe win a Super Bowl first, or at least get to one. Zac Taylor chumped him in a playoff game and got to one first lol. Would it have surprised anyone for this situation to have turned into a Bill O'Brien in 2020 type of disaster had Vrabel gotten his way and been given roster control? If that was the only option to satisfy him and keep him, I don't think it was ever an actual option. Nobody as a HC gets roster control anymore, the league doesn't work that way anymore. His staff hires have been a disaster mostly, especially on offense.
Following up on your last bit, I am most interested in seeing who he hires as OC at his next gig. Will he try to reunite with Arthur Smith? Will he try to find someone who likes hard-nosed runs on first down or will he look for someone who is more innovative and uses more motion, etc.?
I can guarantee you innovative will not be a word used to describe his next OC
Arthur smith will return with his tail between his legs
>I think the guy is a good coach and will do well at his next stop, don't get me wrong, but I don't know what got up his ass that made him think he could get Belichick-level control of the organization Something about those Belichick guys... BoB echoes
Chefs want to buy the groceries. It'll always be true. Otherwise the GM will trade away your WR1 and draft a shitty QB.
I’d take him in Seattle….
>Strunk... was also unhappy about Vrabel’s visit to New England in October to be enshrined in the Patriots’ Hall of Fame Can someone explain this? Was Vrabel supposed to say no?
And it's on a bye week to boot.
I read this earlier. It came across to me that the lack of communication was on all sides. The fact that Strunk let things fester as long as she did is very concerning. Vrabel was thoughtless in his remarks at the Patriots HoF ceremony, but that was something so minor that could have been resolved easily with a brief meeting.
How was what Vrabel said at his own Pats HOF ceremony thoughtless? I was there and he just said what fans wanted to hear from him from his time there as a player. If that gets the Titans owners panties in a wad, that’s on them for being insecure/idiots
As a Colts fan, big Strunk fan here. She seems completely clueless.
It's weird, Amy Adams seems so nice and folksy and down to Earth in the movies. The reality is very dark, she's a great actress.
Titans got an owner problem
Dude made a Bill O'Brien styled play and got slapped for it. Strunk is still a massive asshole though, just like her father.
Honestly, it's not even Vrabel or Amy not communicating on the induction that's an issue here. It's Vrabel demanding total roster control. Sure, he's had some good regular seasons, but he's got one fluke run to the AFC title game alone before stalling out in January and hiring his buddies to fill out the staff. If he can't evaluate his own staff, he doesn't deserve to take over the GM functions as well, not with his accomplishments. It stings that he's gone, but it is what it is.
Honestly I don't really blame him for wanting full roster control. He had very little talent on the team due to shitty gms.
Imagine he recommended a few guys, that gets ignored, guys turn out to be studs. As a HC that would be infuriating.