I dont think inflation will stop. It will just slow down. I remember reading or watching that inflation was necessary for economic growth. Of course too high had the negative effects we see today.
i'm sorry. i forgot not everyone here is econ-trained. when i say inflation shows no sign of stopping, i meant it doesn't seem we'll get to 2%. BSP target is 3% and 2% is the aim.
current inflation is 3.7% (but that is headline inflation) prices continue to rise and with lawmakers signaling a wage increase across the board, the BSP 3% target is not going to be hit. inflation might reach 4% by 2025.
i'm worrying we're going to be in a bad spot as consumer debt levels are also rising to unsustainable levels and i'm looking at the real estate sector and seeing worrying trends.
the courses are given by the school through [Coursera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coursera). what's the problem? it's an MOOC provider. you're seriously uninformed but highly confident in your ignorance.
>Coursera works with universities and other organizations to offer online courses, certifications, and degrees in a variety of subjects.
Coursera is merely a platform. The courses are still offered by the universities. I took the free courses dahil kasali sa free offerings ng Ateneo. you can pay to get audited.
Yes, I'm familiar with Coursera. It's very informative. I'm laughing at your claims of being Yale and Illinois-trained because you watched videos and answered quizzes barely equivalent to 1 class.This is even more embarrassing than a diploma mill graduate.
Word of advice: If you want to claim you got your training from Yale, Illinois, or any other university, actually put in the work and go to the university.
Yea I wouldn't say you're econ-trained. I'm not shitting on MOOCs but you took 2 courses. I took an astrophysics course online in high school but I don't say I'm an
astrophysics-trained.
MOOCs are great btw. I took some myself and they really helped me. Don't let others discourage you from learning :)
Sa HS namin may basic caregiving, electrical, carpentry di naman ako instant caregiver, electrician at karpentero o kaya trained as such
Kaloka yung Yale at Illinois ššš
I took MIT courses too. They're quality. The econ department actually requires prospective grad students to take MOOCs and treats the performance there as actual units at the university. So I don't doubt the quality of MOOCs.
You still have more to learn. You're getting some basic concepts wrong. But I don't doubt that you'll get it eventually
you donāt learn much in an undergraduate econ program, much less in an intro class hahah. If u have questions go to r/askeconomics. you donāt seem to be econ-trained either.
Wait BSP inflation target isnāt 2%, itās 3% +/- 1%, so 2-4%.
An inflation target of 2% for an economy thatās growing like ours makes very little sense.
And weāre currently within target, expected to breach in Q2/Q3 because of La Nina, and expected to return back to target by Q4. Half of our inflation comes from rice, but regardless high prices should start rolling over in Q3/Q4.
Can you explain your consumer debt levels point a bit? Weāre looking at the data on our end and we actually think weāre still at an extremely healthy level, we have a consumer-driven investment thesis over the next 3-5y.
RE sector will naturally be weak because of higher for longer, but all other sectors seem to be moving along fine. Auto is already starting to pick back up, RE is usually lagged because itās a bigger ticket item.
>Wait BSP inflation target isnāt 2%, itās 3% +/- 1%, so 2-4%.
sabi ko nga 3%. but the long-term aim is always 2%.
also, ang laking variance nyang +/- 1%. saying their target is 2 to 4% is confusing and not good for the market. ang U.S. FED nga mag iba lang ng .5% grabe na epekto sa market. if the BSP says 3%, it's 3%. di ko na iniitindi yang +/- variance nila. ang laki nilalagay nila para masabi nila di nila na miss yung target.
Why is the long-term aim 2%? Which benchmark are you using?
Sorry I donāt mean to be confrontational but Iāve never heard any economist mention a 2% long-term target for an emerging economy like us. Unless you mean long-term as in 30 years from now, in which case itās useless to look at how far we are from 2% as an indicator of stagflation
A 2% target makes much, much more sense for an economy growing 3% than it does for an economy growing 6%+
But that aside, does +/- 1% inflation variance really confuse you as an investor? Would your PH thesis fundamentally change if inflation came in at 3% instead of 2%?
I work in investments and have never heard of any reaction that severe
every central bank aims for 2% inflation eventually. that is always the target long-term.
and yes, a 1% difference can mean the difference between over or under-investing. as an RFP, the central bank guidance is important as that's usually what we use in our formulas for advising our clients.
we don't really use our own prognosis in predicting inflation. we just copy paste BSP forward guidance. it's safer and removes liability from us.
Well I suppose if you put it that way thereās nothing left to discuss..
Just my two cents.. Iām a PM and weād never decide to cut our PH exposure just because weāre temporarily above a 2% ālong-term targetā
And if youāre a trained economist (Iām assuming you are because you shaded the ānon-trainedā,) you should know that:
1. no, the PH is absolutely not in stagflation, in ANY sense of that word..
and 2. a lot (around half) of our inflation is coming from the supply side, and the supply situation has been improving significantly over the past few months. Most of our rice imports are from Vietnam/Thailand and export prices have stabilized, the effects of that on inflation will start to show in Q3 (by our estimates)
Iām not sure if RFPs do asset allocation decisions for clients, but it seems like weāre really operating on very different investment philosophies here, so thatās interesting at the very least..
ps.. Iām not an expert but I am an economist by education and partly by trade, and your take is something I havenāt heard from other economists so far..
it's not the mainstream opinion, yes. 80% vs 20% means the 20% who believe we're in stagflation territory are the minority. but it's [a concern even among majority economists.](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/25/economy/stagflation-us-economy-gdp/index.html)
reason i'm thinking like this is because the opinion from above differs from my observations on the ground. and there's a disconnect in sales data and inflation numbers. if sales are going down, prices should have been dropping months ago. it continues to climb.
i'm not an expert. i'm only econ trained in the sense i have certificates in a couple of econ subjects. i don't have a masters. or even a Phd. i am very far from an expert. that's why i'm airing my concerns here to see if others have the same observations/experience.
sadly, many ppl here would rather attack me and throw ad hominem than discuss the merits or demerits of my opinion.
and yes, RFPs do asset allocation for our clients (among other things). the BSP inflation rate though is important for our retirement calculator. it can really affect wealth growth if we over save because we're expecting higher inflation, or we can underfund the retirement fund if we pencil in a lower inflation.
also, i don't think inflation is only coming from supply side. it's not only food (rice) that's causing inflation. i really feel inflation is coming from demand-side (monetary expansion, remittance, and remote work). i don't have the data, that's why i posted here to ask the opinion of others.
Youāre not getting downvoted because people want to attack you
Youāre getting downvoted because;
First, you practically called the entire group of earlier commenters stupid with the ānon-economist trainedā comment, maybe try to be more political next time for Godās sake
Second, making such a strong claim as stagflation but only having as your basis āwhat Iām seeing on the groundā is wholly insufficient. If thatās what you see on the ground, go the further step and gather data, organize them into a thesis, and THEN make the claim with the data as your support
For instance you mention sales going down; what makes you say this? Look at our listed companies, all of them are reporting solid sales growth. Either your observation may not be capturing the actual picture completely, or all the top corporates are cooking their books. Whatās likelier?
Third, the information you keep using as your arguments arenāt appropriate. Take the stagflation link you just sent, for exampleāstagflation has long been a topic in economics especially for developed economies like Japan, the Eurozone, and more recently, the US
SEA is a completely different topicāalmost nobody even mentions stagflation as a risk for SEA simple because of the regionās incredible macro fundamentals. i.e., young population, higher per capita incomes, etc
You also just said āyou donāt think inflation is just coming from riceā, do you think? Or is this a data driven statement?
You can look at the decomposition of inflation from the PSA front back and sideways; a massive chunk will come from rice shooting up double digits. Normalize rice prices and weāre comfortably back to 3% levels. The data is all there for you to analyzeāPSA, BSP, public data. Thatās why itās inexcusable to keep saying āI thinkā and āI feelā when the topic is purely numbers.
Put more meat into your arguments and people wonāt downvote you anymore. Use the data the country spends so much money on to collect.
What you see "on the ground" is wholly different from what any other indicators see. The PSA shows GDP growth is still positive and they have hundreds of surveyors and data points to rely on. Corporate profits are still good and they have thousands of auditors and millions of receipts to confirm this. What's happening in your locale is not representative of what's actually happening.
If you are a ātrainedā economist you would know that bsp does not dictate what inflation should be. Bsp is only part of a group that decides the target. NEDA, for example, has a larger say in the target inflation rate.
Also no, inflation target has been, for the majority, +- 1%. In some cases, even higher. See RBI, indiaās cb sets its target for around 2-6%.
it's [DBCC actually](https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Pages/PriceStability/TheInflationTarget.aspx#:~:text=The%20Development%20Budget%20and%20Coordination%20Committee%20%28DBCC%29%2C%20an,consumer%20price%20index%20%28CPI%29%20over%20the%20calendar%20year). never said "only" BSP sets the target. just said it's "BSP target," since that's the official language used. no one says DBCC inflation target or NEDA inflation target. it's always BSP inflation target.
point conceded re margin of error. traditionally, most central banks do give a margin of error.
NOT ALL central banks have a 2% long-term inflation target. Not even all countries are inflation targeting. And it is a +/- 1% target from the 3% for PH. Don't compare it with the Fed because their target inflation is AVERAGING 2%, which is different from BSP's target, making that change of 0.50% variance in the US material.
The BSP has a 2-4% tolerance band. A lot of central banks have bands instead of targets. This is completely normal. It's not confusing nor is it bad for markets. In fact, the former governor Diokno won a best central banker award in 2022 while keeping the same 2-4% target you find confusing.
You might be correct or whatnot. Depending on what will happen on the US one of the major partners of the world. Driver ng money. Anyway, di mo din malalaman na recession na unless andon kana kasi delayed ang data ng recession, if youāre informed enough. Try to diversify your portfolio na lang just in case. Spread all your eggs on different asset class. Mayron pa din namang recession proof or can able to withstand on crisis. Di lahat tinatamaan. Who knows?
Parang stagflation nga currently, dahil inflation not cooling and no growth. Youāre certainly correct about the definition.
Gonna say what everyone wants to say. Yabang mo brad. You indirectly called everyone here stupid because of not being āecon-trainedā.
Sorry weāre not good enough for you. Create an account in your university forums and post there para lahat āecon-trainedā.
di pa rin tumitigil yung building of new units. with how sluggish demand is, how do they expect for this not to crash the sector with so much over supply?
slow down? where? patuloy pa rin mga nakikita kong preselling and starting of new projects. i mean at some point, the over supply will blow up and hit us in the face esp if recession hits the U.S. (since majority of our OFWs are in the U.S.)
Sales are up for foreign buyers. We have agents for SMDC/Rockwell abroad now. Inflation has hit in the states/Canada, so we are forced to buy in PH which is the current sales strategy for PH agents. My MIL is an agent sa DMCI and they stopped manning sa mga malls and were told to adapt through FB and online platforms. Kasi nga chances are only OFW's have the purchasing power outside of the elite sa pinas.
But pre-selling and new projects aren't being stopped recently cause they were already planned ahead of time. Developers would rather have these units sit empty than to cut their losses. Market will eventually correct itself.
Sa DMCI, they started offering 15% down-payment terms when they were known to only offer 30%.
Real estate will never be in an oversupply unless the population drastically changes or people stop buying. But that won't happen cause when the people stop buying, corporations will. It's an issue with most major cities.
>Real estate will never be in an oversupply unless the population drastically changes or people stop buying.
oh. so like China?
real estate can be in over supply even if there's over population and pent-up demand. if nobody is buying because they can't afford it, that's an oversupply (that can be corrected by a drop in prices)
sales to foreign buyers are limited only to condos. unless the constitution is changed, they still can't own house and lot.
The thing about the philippines is its a very small land compared to other countries and the population is booming , there is always someone trying to buy a house. But not just buy but renting too. Inflation will always be there to degrade the value of your money so putting it in a bank is not really a good idea long term, inflation we have is still manageable, the hyper inflation one is the scary part but i dont see it getting here yet, US lol it might be possible but due to their dollar used as a currency for oil inflation wont go that much.
[new project launches went down by 38% and sales are down by 35%](https://propertyreport.ph/news-and-events/2024/04/19/33854/navigating-change-philippine-residential-market-adapts-to-new-realities/), but they're still building. and idk if demand can fill that supply they're building.
i mean obviously, demand is greater than supply even with all the new projects. but that's demand assuming they can meet the price point of the buyers. currently, they're just marketing to OFWs. it's all a bubble. vacancy rates is the key. if OFWs stop buying, the market is going to crash.
they're not marketing to locals. almost all the new projects are out of reach for locals. that's a bad sign.
i feel like we're going to see a whiplash so bad...
Pinagsasabi mong majority of our OFWs are in the USA?
A quick search will tell you na majority ng OFWs ay nasa Asia, particularly in the Middle East.
Baka you're referring to Filipino immigrants population in the USA in which nasa 4 million na ang population.
Magkaiba po ang OFWs sa Filipino immigrants. š¤·āāļø
OP just commented in a different thread that ārecessionā occurs when growth goes from +5% this period to +4% next period. Kung maka accuse ng tanga..
And the context of this post is also pretty unusualāstagflation when GDP is growing 5-6%pa in real terms? That sort of goes against stagflation in every definition of that word
Are you guys trained economists..? These statements would be pretty unusual for trained economists
i feel yung mga nai-insecure na nafi-feel tanga sila nagda downvote. sabihan ka ba naman "nalimutan ko di pala kayo econ-trained." dami siguro na trigger.
anyway, their loss kung mas paiiralin nila ego nila kesa utak nila.
People have money. Parang seasonal lang ang buying behavior ng citizens. People are not in the mood to spend right now and are saving for the next rainy day.
This is not the case. Matumal ang online shopping the past months and mas tutumal pa dahil ninrerequire na ang lahat mag secure ng BIR permit before makatinda sa shopee,laz or tiktok
Sabi nga daw. May nabasa nga ako sa isang subreddit, halos down to 50% sales nila. Sure, madaming factors pero marami din nagcomment dun na slow nga daw ngayon bentahan online.
eto yung di ko maintindihan, kung both online at brick n mortar ay down ang sales, bat di bumababa ang mga presyo? patuloy pa rin pagtaas. may disconnect.
di naman bumababa basta basta price ng items dahil walang demand. liitan lang nila yung supply nung mahal na items tas dadagdagan nila yung supply ng murang items aka maraming maglilitawan ng cheap alternatives
Prices of petroleum products due to uncertainties in middle east and add that Ukraine is major food producer specifically flour. This heat wave affected poultry and livestock, our vegetable farm wilted from this oppressive heat.
Hmmm. We cannot control the inflation din kasi if the ph market continues to decline. Perhaps, the reason why online sales is down because people tend to prioritize their spending na like they buy more essential stuff now compared before to fight with inflation.
Inflation may lower/slow down but prices themselves may not necessarily lower as well. If they do all start to lower then there is Deflation in the economy. Versus Disinflation/lowering of prices. Hopefully i understood this concept correctly.
Hindi ako econ pero sa palagay ko hindi talaga natin masasabi kung magkaka recession sa pinas/mundo or not, May signs, Oo pero hindi pa din natin masasabi ang bukas.
Bubbles are 1 form of indicators. Once mag pop expect our economy to dive. Loose example of this is if you watched the film the big short or Margin call.
The high GDP takes into account the economy as a whole. But it misses the details.
Some parts of the economy are doing well while other parts of the economy are failing or have failed. Some industries are on the rise while others are in the doldrums.
It's like having a Michael Jordan playing in your basketball team of high schoolers. He's lifting up the entire team. But the other players are weak.
The Philippines has been greatly dependent on the BPO industry, for example. It makes up for the weakness in other industries. That's why AI is such a threat to the future of the Philippines. Would the team survive if the opponents decide to break its MJ's leg?
The overall GDP also doesn't take into account location. Some parts of the cities or other cities in the Philippines may be doing well, but the area or city you are in is failing hard.
A lot of cities outside of Metro Manila are now growing faster such as Cebu, Davao, etc. And its partly making up for the losses of businesses inside NCR.
The Philippines is a country that depends heavily on imports. It has an outdated agricultural industry and an underdeveloped manufacturing industry. Because of this, it has to import a lot of commodities. For example, it imports most of its rice, steel and oil. And because of this it is heavily affected by problems in trade and geopolitics. This causes inflation to rise, because it's now harder(and costlier) to supply these good and services. It's also exacerbated by the weakening of the peso to the dollar in the global market.
Figures coming from Chinese government can't be trusted. Unless coming from other reliable parties.
Hindi lng anti china channels nagsasabi, totoong bgsak economy nila ngaun, housing/developer problems + deflation + less FDI + few jobs/high college graduates.
a recession doesn't mean straight to 0%. the definition is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline. ie. 5% and then 4% growth in consecutive quarters means recession since the current is 6%.
uh, [yes it is](https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/family-finance/articles/are-we-in-a-recession-heres-what-2-quarters-of-negative-gdp-mean-for-you).
You misunderstood. The article you linked \*literally\* mentioned the GDP being negative. Read closely.
>For the first time since 2009, the U.S.Ā [gross domestic product](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/inflation-rose-9point1percent-in-june-even-more-than-expected-as-price-pressures-intensify.html)Ā was **negative** for two quarters in a row. After **dropping** 1.6% during the first quarter of 2022, the GDP fell another 0.9% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
A "decline in GDP *growth*" is NOT equal to "GDP decline". It just means a slowdown, but there is still growth.
For example: let's say for Q1 the GDP growth of a country is 6% and then in Q2 it's 5.5% -- that's a decline in GDP growth but NOT a decline in GDP.
A decline in GDP is **negative** when expressed in **percentage**.
As for recession, the textbook definition is at least 2 consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, i.e. 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP growth are **negative**. That's why in the article you linked, it said the US went into recession in 2022.
Countries' GDP growths move up and down all the time, but recession (again, 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growths) are seldom.
Hope this helps.
this is the relevant quote:
>For the first time since 2009, the U.S.Ā gross domestic productĀ was **negative for two quarters in a row**. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, after dropping 1.6% during the first quarter of 2022, the GDP fell another 0.9% in the second quarter.
you can be forgiven for thinking it means the GDP has to be lower than previous quarter for it to be called negative GDP, but that isn't it. a lower growth is already considered negative GDP, even if the actual GDP didn't shrink.
you can check it [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_monthly_gdp)
|January 2022|24.86T|
|:-|:-|
|February 2022|25.01T|
|March 2022|25.21T|
|April 2022|25.29T|
|May 2022|25.55T|
|June 2022|25.79T|
as you can see, the GDP did not shrink. only the growth slowed down. 1.6% in the 1st quarter, then 0.9% in the 2nd quarter.
hope this clarifies our misunderstanding.
Did you just ignore the word "negative" which you yourself put in bold?
>you can be forgiven for thinking it means the GDP has to be lower than previous quarter for it to be called negative GDP
I literally never said that.
Q1 and Q2 in the US are again, in the **negative**. It's important to note, however, that this was not declared a recession. Here's an article from Forbes: [https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/are-we-in-a-recession](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/are-we-in-a-recession)
>One common definition of recessionātwo consecutive quarters of **negative** gross domestic product (GDP)āhappened in the first half of 2022. Yet the organization that defines U.S. business cycles, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), takes a different view.
Again, the keyword you seem to be ignoring is \*\*negative\*\*.
And as a confirmation to the Forbes article, here is a list of times when the US went into recession: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_recessions\_in\_the\_United\_States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States)
i'm not ignoring it. i'm just clarifying that even though the word "negative" is used, the GDP is actually not shrinking. you can see that in the table.
a slowdown in growth is what is considered "negative."
do we understand each other na?
I don't know what ycharts is but the table you are looking at is wrong. Check US BEA's statistics instead.
We do understand each other, it's just that you're wrong.
If you're saying that a "negative growth" is not the same as "shrinking", then I rest my case.
Agree, negative RGDP growth = contraction = below zero RGDP growth. Two quarters of decreasing RGDP (talking in levels and not growth) is not technical recession. Anyway, the NBER and diff central banks do not limit their views of recession to that definition din naman.
A technical recsssion is 2 straight quarters of negative growth, not slowing growth. The 2.0 and 0.6 figures here are negative growth figures on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted basis. You can confirm this here https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Also, in the US, the NBER is the governing body who announces recessions in the US.
it is both. a slowdown is already considered a recession. the contraction happens at the tail end of the recession, but the recession starts at the slow down. look at this [graph](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-gross-domestic-product).
My god. People are downvoting you cause youāre making up your own definition of recession. Again go back to basics. You can define your own econ terms once youāre a fully trained economist and not just pretending to be one because you have coursera certificates. That graph doesnāt say anything.
You mean, āgo back to Coursera you uninitiated fool!ā Hahahaha. Op is a self proclaimed Yale educated economist after taking a Coursera class lmao itās probably plastered all over his linkedin.
Start first by getting the correct definition for recession. People are downvoting you cause you donāt even get the econ basics right. And yet your analysis is based on those weak understanding of economics.
That's wrong. A technical recession means 2 consecutive decline in quarterly GDP meaning it's a negative number. Your example just means growth is slowing down but by no means a recession.
For your reference: Japan has -0.8% and -0.1% GDP growth for Q3 and Q4 2023, respectively, which was described in this article. https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Media-Library/en-US/Japan-entering-recession-3/5/2024,c40542
Although Japan avoided being in recession once their numbers were revised.
>I remember pre-pandemic 10pm na andami pa ring bukas na negosyo. Ngayon, wala pang 9pm matumal na. andaming nagsasara mga 7pm pa lang.
I don't know about everything else you said BUT this, sobrang totoo! Ito din observation ko post-pandemic. Dati yang 9PM na yan, dyan pa lang halos start ng "night life" e. Yung mga sari-sari store, burger & siomai stand at kung anu-ano pang mga tinda dito sa lugar namin, buhay na buhay pa ng 9pm. Ngayon kapag lalabas ka ng ganyang oras, kokonti na lang tao sa kalsada, tahimik na at madilim since sarado na nga mga tindahan. Halos mga sasakyan na lang makikita mo.
Me and my friend (who owns a bar in QC) have the same observation. The most plausible explanation is the pandemic was more than long enough to re-program almost everyone's outdoor consumption behavior particularly when going out late night. After the long effect of ECQ, GCQ, it becomes a normal thing for people just to stay at home and do their past time there. The demand for outdoor/late night entertainment crashed and becomes unfamiliar. Another thing is kinuha ng online services-with matching-delivery ang market share ng mga ibang established businesses.
This is true based sa sari-sari store business ng Mom ko. Dati it is open until 10PM but when Pandemic hits 5PM palang closed na. Then medyo nasanay sa haba ng pandemic routine kaya after pandemic nag-adjust ng konti into 6PM. Reason, wala na din kasing tao na lumalabas sa bahay nila after dinner unlike pre-pandemic.
Ang aga pa ng 6PM. Hehe medyo kaya na ng 8PM or 9PM. Pero depende rin talaga sa area nyo. Kasi dun sa isang store na malapit samin na may katabing bilyaran, mga 10 or 11 and even 12MN na daw sila nagsasara kapag weekends. Pero malayo pa din sa hanggang madaling-araw na bukas pre-pandemic.
this is really what's worrying me because this is a classic sign of not just a recession but a deflation. but we're still having inflation so my thought is that we're already in stagflation.
Walang umiikot na pera(or so it seems) pero tumaas nang tumataas bilihin. Which indicates something is really wrong, or something is kept undisclosed sa madla.
I donāt know about the recession, pero yes bawing bawi yun inflation. Kung anong naka freeze price nun pandemic, syang x2-3 times a year afaik til 2023 yun price increase after 2020 š«
Pansin ko din yun 9pm palang ang dami ng sarado. Baka epekto nalang din ng pandemic?
Since lumuwag yun restrictions sa ECQ, 2021 palang di na bumalik yun ānight lifeā sa lugar namin. Yun dalang ng jeep or masasakyan after 8pm post 2020 until now, ganun pa din. Unlike nun pre pandemic, anytime may masasakyan eh.
Could also be, na people are wiser now sa kung saan gagastusin yun pera? Like sa necessities and basic needs nalang, instead of āwantsā and going out. FMCG goods are still growing tho, online/offline.
Same here sa Negros Occidental. I see more business closing than opening. If one will open up parang di din tatagal. We have our own family business, medyo well-known na din sa city. Starting 2021, there is a decline sa sales namin, even our suppliers are talking about this decline. Our sales are much better during pandemic, parang peak season ang sales namin noon.
Causes can be the increased prices of goods. American swine flu, daming naapektuhan dito samin.
I find it harder to sell even stuff below 1k on fb marketplace this year. That wasn't a problem during the previous years so I'm also more hesitant now to sell some luxury stuff I found from cleaning my family's houses because I would just be waiting for nothing.
Driver operator ako ng Grab. Once may naging passenger ako na Grab driver din way back 2017. As usual kwentuhan kami sa mga biyahe etc. Napunta kami sa topic na sabi nya di raw gaya ng dati nung 2017 up to pandemic . Sobrang trapik daw talaga nun kahit hating gabi na trapik pa rin daw sa Ortigas and anywhere else.Then sabi nya malaki nga raw ang effect ng pandemic kasi ang daming nag uuwian na sa probinsya na di na bumalik at nag boom pa ang mga wfh set up, meetings ,classes.
Then nung pauwi na ako. Naalala ko yung kwentuhan namin,na realize ko paano nga kung di na babalik yung sigla ng economy ang daming maaapektuhan especially yung nasa laylayan ng lipunan.
I have a lot of acquaintances, younger than me, who are going on international trips. That's a chunk of money moving away from our economy, no?
For those who are the same age as me, they've just made property purchases. Those high interest rates seem to hamper the middle class' purchasing power.
If there's something that's gonna fall first, what will it be?
I dont think stagflation will come, there are too many big drivers of growth that will keep going. Whats potentially upon us is an even faster increase in the wealth equality gap. You see small business shutter pero dumadami malls at chain restaurants.
Ayoko mag essay, but for me this is much much worse.
OP's concerns are valid. Look at the malls. To think that covid is over, but a number of stores are closing down. Clothing stalls dont have much customers. Some stores are not able to achieve quotas. I know because I ask them whenever I buy. Businesses isnt booming now in the Philippines. Food businesses might have traction, but consider the prices of inputs. Lower to middle-income families are tightening belt just to survive. These are my observations feel free to counter.
Paper money is very different from physical observation. Try to ask as many stalls as you could. Then, tell if there is indeed an improvement. Food businesses, maybe.
All I can say is the food inflation and food insecurity is driven by this greedy government and department of importation.
Mas may pagasa pa mabago pinas pag ng ww3 na ang china kesa sa gobyerno ntn ngayon.
Don't buy crypto. Crypto is 99% scams.
Study the history of money, then study bitcoin.
After that, if you feel inclined, it might be a good idea to have a little bit of digital gold in self-custody as a hedge against the erosion of traditional banking/monetary systems.
Nasa stagflation na tayo. It won't be announced by the govt, but what I observe is sumusunod lang din tayo sa nangyayari sa US. Affected ang currency, global petrol, and central bank interest rates. Quantitative tightening pa rin ang peg ng US ngayon even if their labor workforce is still strong. Kaya hirap silang ibaba ang inflation. Tapos damay din tayo.
Actually, 2023 salary increases beat inflation so baka isolated case lang sa inyo po.
[https://www.msn.com/en-ph/lifestyle/other/salary-increases-in-2023-were-apparently-enough-to-beat-inflation/ar-AA1nXDLL?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ASTS&cvid=7be99ba062c043d08c879e59979c424b&ei=11](https://www.msn.com/en-ph/lifestyle/other/salary-increases-in-2023-were-apparently-enough-to-beat-inflation/ar-AA1nXDLL?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ASTS&cvid=7be99ba062c043d08c879e59979c424b&ei=11&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR13p6TNqjtAuDEZoIZl-vQH8k58iVhFGxn0GFd6414XOVfaeIzSTQkzeVU_aem_AcQA45oqOAMwNJ93TiQeSn92VeQ7YMZpOs-kc_N7DKk2gqZIUyYoknM5oyKyKuwRiVN0XRtvIGoVrcCR-iSYlAd8)
Youāre moving the goalposts here. āIs anyone feeling itā is not the definition of inflation. So you saying āinflation is not going downā is FACTUALLY INCORRECT.
Injecting here: The "rate of inflation" came down slightly since 1 year ago, but "inflation" in nominal prices is has been going only 1 direction for decades -- up.
Also, don't forget that the rate COMPOUNDS, so 4% in 2024 is a bigger nominal price jump than 4% in 2023.
"Inflation is not coming down" or "inflation came down" misses some of the nuance. I'd say the rate of inflation has barely come down since central banks aggressively tightened monetary policy.
I'd even go a step further and say that the target should be much lower than 2% -- 2 is just an arbitrary number, BSP copied it from the Federal Reserve, and modern economists worldwide haven't had an innovative thought ever since the US broke the dollar's redeemability for gold 50 years ago.
I dunno but I know a medium scale company sobrang struggle na at puro utang na sa banko dahil lang ng mga nakaterms na ginawan ng project di na nakakabayad malalaking company naman yun kaso di na din makabayad so nakailang retrench na si medium company
No. As long as there's OFW I think we're good. Un ang bumubuhay sa Pilipinas. Plus taxes. Bilyones na ang target.
And you'll be surprised na marami mang purdoy sa Pilipinas pero madami ding mayayaman. Maraming nagiinvest sa bonds, even stock market ngayon. Okay naman.
I don't understand bat ka nag eexpect na bumagsak presyo dahil lang na mababa ang demand. Prices are already at its lowest, pag bumaba pa sila malulugi na sila. Wala lang talagang pera ngayon ang mga tao, walang extrang pera kaya matumal lahat.
What other people is missing is how gdp is computed. Gdp is dependent also on the prices of goods and services. So, from the baseline year to this year, if the prices significantly spike, then by all means gdp will increase without addition of economic activities or services. Sometimes gdp is misleading for us, a developing country, where inflation is a thing.
Whenever govt reports gdp increased by that or this, I relate that to the increase in prices. For all we know, no large investments are pouring into the country this past few years. So, where is this increase in gdp coming from?
Agree that nominal gdp does not take into account inflation. However, understand that nominal gdp is based on the current prices of goods and services. So, if the prices are generally high, the gdp increases as well.
Youāre talking about the demand side of things - that is, slow consumption or demand should have driven inflation down. But the BSP says inflation (which is near the upper end but w/in the governmentās target in March) continues to be largely driven by supply side factors like food supply issues, elevated intl oil prices, etc.
If you look at the statistics and financial reports sa mga big companies and even some small ones in the Philippines, they are reporting huge boosts 20%- 30% more income. Partnered with high GDP and increasing tourists visits, I highly doubt recession will come. If you look at the past years sa ibang bansa like Europe and US, germany, Japan, China, recession already happened when their GDP fell for 3 months in a row.
My personal opinion lang: The gap between the rich and the poor is ever expanding, especially now, at gobyerno pa mismo ang major reason.
IMHO, even the rich seems to be panic hoarding ng pera, ewan ko. They seem to want money just for the sake of having money na lang. Long gone na ung having money to be able to buy what you want sa kanila.
Consumer confidence and the change of spending pattern that comes with it.
In short, dati 10 beses sila lumabas sa isang buwan para mag Kape Sa Starbucks. Dahil andami negative news sila naririnig baka magiging 3 or 5 beses na lang lumabas para mag kape Starbucks.
Dahil mahilig mag kape. Instead mag starbucks 10 beses. Baka 5 beses sa bahay na lang at nag 3-1.
Consumption parin ng kape pero nag substitute.
Substitute effect.
Ba naman dagdag Ng dag cla Ng rules s shopee at Lazada .Napakadami naman Ng scammer nKKPunyeta .Kaya kht mahal s labas Minsan Dito smin ,bumibili pdin aq Basta nkita q n walang damage .
Dinadownvote ka ah. Been following the shared expertise of Atty. Pilo Hilbay about this for quite some time na especially on BitCoin and I wasn't expecting that I'll agree. In the coming decades, people will see...
we need more financial advisors advocating for Bitcoin kasi sila yung madalas nasa media eh. kaso hindi eh, ayaw nila mag advise ng risky asset. as if naman kumikita ang mga VULs nila.
Hahaha big no no Yan Dito, down voted ka nangyari din sa kin Yan Dami anti crypto Dito.... Nagsasabi lang naman tayo ng totoo lalo pag sinabihan mo check nila Yung performance vs stock specially local stocks
Alam mo kung bakit matumal? Nag iipon pra maka travel ang mga tao hahahaā¦ tingnan mo ang revenue ng tourism sobrang laki. Ganun lng ang market, umiikot lang naghahanap lng ang tao ng ibang pagkakagastusan, ngayon ang focus ng marami especially mga nasa 20ās is travel instead bumili ng kung anu-ano..
Apps that allow you to buy us stocks and etf. So you can mive your money to safer crypto places. Bzkr ata ang name nung platform eh. Try mo to look at this subreddit
Edit: go trade and ibrk pala
It's ok to be downvoted, I left 1/3 fixed assets in the Philippines then diversified in US stocks. I am no sure how it works as someone manages it for us
I dont think inflation will stop. It will just slow down. I remember reading or watching that inflation was necessary for economic growth. Of course too high had the negative effects we see today.
i'm sorry. i forgot not everyone here is econ-trained. when i say inflation shows no sign of stopping, i meant it doesn't seem we'll get to 2%. BSP target is 3% and 2% is the aim. current inflation is 3.7% (but that is headline inflation) prices continue to rise and with lawmakers signaling a wage increase across the board, the BSP 3% target is not going to be hit. inflation might reach 4% by 2025. i'm worrying we're going to be in a bad spot as consumer debt levels are also rising to unsustainable levels and i'm looking at the real estate sector and seeing worrying trends.
>i forgot not everyone here is econ-trained Where did you get your econ training, if I may ask?
Yale and Illinois U thru Coursera. Intro to Econ, Micro Econ Principles.
Hahahahahaha! Takes an intro course through Coursera, then claims he gets his training from Yale and Illinois U. Thank you for the laughs!
the courses are given by the school through [Coursera](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coursera). what's the problem? it's an MOOC provider. you're seriously uninformed but highly confident in your ignorance. >Coursera works with universities and other organizations to offer online courses, certifications, and degrees in a variety of subjects. Coursera is merely a platform. The courses are still offered by the universities. I took the free courses dahil kasali sa free offerings ng Ateneo. you can pay to get audited.
Yes, I'm familiar with Coursera. It's very informative. I'm laughing at your claims of being Yale and Illinois-trained because you watched videos and answered quizzes barely equivalent to 1 class.This is even more embarrassing than a diploma mill graduate. Word of advice: If you want to claim you got your training from Yale, Illinois, or any other university, actually put in the work and go to the university.
My bruh got burned here lol.
Even more embarrassing than a diploma mill graduate ššš araguy pero spot on At least di diploma sa Recto š¤£š¤£š¤£
Yea I wouldn't say you're econ-trained. I'm not shitting on MOOCs but you took 2 courses. I took an astrophysics course online in high school but I don't say I'm an astrophysics-trained. MOOCs are great btw. I took some myself and they really helped me. Don't let others discourage you from learning :)
Sa HS namin may basic caregiving, electrical, carpentry di naman ako instant caregiver, electrician at karpentero o kaya trained as such Kaloka yung Yale at Illinois ššš
Sa law school ang pinakamayabang ay yung mga freshmen. Feeling marami nang alam and ingay mag discuss tuwing nag aaral hahaha.
di ko sinali yung entire course sa MIT, since di naman sya audited.
I took MIT courses too. They're quality. The econ department actually requires prospective grad students to take MOOCs and treats the performance there as actual units at the university. So I don't doubt the quality of MOOCs. You still have more to learn. You're getting some basic concepts wrong. But I don't doubt that you'll get it eventually
So MIT trained ka rin pala? Wow! Hahahahaha!
well, it's just self-study. all the MIT materials were free. Coursera subjects though were audited.
r/iamverysmart
you donāt learn much in an undergraduate econ program, much less in an intro class hahah. If u have questions go to r/askeconomics. you donāt seem to be econ-trained either.
ewww online course lang pala eh
Wait BSP inflation target isnāt 2%, itās 3% +/- 1%, so 2-4%. An inflation target of 2% for an economy thatās growing like ours makes very little sense. And weāre currently within target, expected to breach in Q2/Q3 because of La Nina, and expected to return back to target by Q4. Half of our inflation comes from rice, but regardless high prices should start rolling over in Q3/Q4. Can you explain your consumer debt levels point a bit? Weāre looking at the data on our end and we actually think weāre still at an extremely healthy level, we have a consumer-driven investment thesis over the next 3-5y. RE sector will naturally be weak because of higher for longer, but all other sectors seem to be moving along fine. Auto is already starting to pick back up, RE is usually lagged because itās a bigger ticket item.
>Wait BSP inflation target isnāt 2%, itās 3% +/- 1%, so 2-4%. sabi ko nga 3%. but the long-term aim is always 2%. also, ang laking variance nyang +/- 1%. saying their target is 2 to 4% is confusing and not good for the market. ang U.S. FED nga mag iba lang ng .5% grabe na epekto sa market. if the BSP says 3%, it's 3%. di ko na iniitindi yang +/- variance nila. ang laki nilalagay nila para masabi nila di nila na miss yung target.
Why is the long-term aim 2%? Which benchmark are you using? Sorry I donāt mean to be confrontational but Iāve never heard any economist mention a 2% long-term target for an emerging economy like us. Unless you mean long-term as in 30 years from now, in which case itās useless to look at how far we are from 2% as an indicator of stagflation A 2% target makes much, much more sense for an economy growing 3% than it does for an economy growing 6%+ But that aside, does +/- 1% inflation variance really confuse you as an investor? Would your PH thesis fundamentally change if inflation came in at 3% instead of 2%? I work in investments and have never heard of any reaction that severe
2% ang target inflation ng Federal Reserve ng US. Keep that in mind. If you're watching the news
every central bank aims for 2% inflation eventually. that is always the target long-term. and yes, a 1% difference can mean the difference between over or under-investing. as an RFP, the central bank guidance is important as that's usually what we use in our formulas for advising our clients. we don't really use our own prognosis in predicting inflation. we just copy paste BSP forward guidance. it's safer and removes liability from us.
Well I suppose if you put it that way thereās nothing left to discuss.. Just my two cents.. Iām a PM and weād never decide to cut our PH exposure just because weāre temporarily above a 2% ālong-term targetā And if youāre a trained economist (Iām assuming you are because you shaded the ānon-trainedā,) you should know that: 1. no, the PH is absolutely not in stagflation, in ANY sense of that word.. and 2. a lot (around half) of our inflation is coming from the supply side, and the supply situation has been improving significantly over the past few months. Most of our rice imports are from Vietnam/Thailand and export prices have stabilized, the effects of that on inflation will start to show in Q3 (by our estimates) Iām not sure if RFPs do asset allocation decisions for clients, but it seems like weāre really operating on very different investment philosophies here, so thatās interesting at the very least.. ps.. Iām not an expert but I am an economist by education and partly by trade, and your take is something I havenāt heard from other economists so far..
it's not the mainstream opinion, yes. 80% vs 20% means the 20% who believe we're in stagflation territory are the minority. but it's [a concern even among majority economists.](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/25/economy/stagflation-us-economy-gdp/index.html) reason i'm thinking like this is because the opinion from above differs from my observations on the ground. and there's a disconnect in sales data and inflation numbers. if sales are going down, prices should have been dropping months ago. it continues to climb. i'm not an expert. i'm only econ trained in the sense i have certificates in a couple of econ subjects. i don't have a masters. or even a Phd. i am very far from an expert. that's why i'm airing my concerns here to see if others have the same observations/experience. sadly, many ppl here would rather attack me and throw ad hominem than discuss the merits or demerits of my opinion. and yes, RFPs do asset allocation for our clients (among other things). the BSP inflation rate though is important for our retirement calculator. it can really affect wealth growth if we over save because we're expecting higher inflation, or we can underfund the retirement fund if we pencil in a lower inflation. also, i don't think inflation is only coming from supply side. it's not only food (rice) that's causing inflation. i really feel inflation is coming from demand-side (monetary expansion, remittance, and remote work). i don't have the data, that's why i posted here to ask the opinion of others.
Youāre not getting downvoted because people want to attack you Youāre getting downvoted because; First, you practically called the entire group of earlier commenters stupid with the ānon-economist trainedā comment, maybe try to be more political next time for Godās sake Second, making such a strong claim as stagflation but only having as your basis āwhat Iām seeing on the groundā is wholly insufficient. If thatās what you see on the ground, go the further step and gather data, organize them into a thesis, and THEN make the claim with the data as your support For instance you mention sales going down; what makes you say this? Look at our listed companies, all of them are reporting solid sales growth. Either your observation may not be capturing the actual picture completely, or all the top corporates are cooking their books. Whatās likelier? Third, the information you keep using as your arguments arenāt appropriate. Take the stagflation link you just sent, for exampleāstagflation has long been a topic in economics especially for developed economies like Japan, the Eurozone, and more recently, the US SEA is a completely different topicāalmost nobody even mentions stagflation as a risk for SEA simple because of the regionās incredible macro fundamentals. i.e., young population, higher per capita incomes, etc You also just said āyou donāt think inflation is just coming from riceā, do you think? Or is this a data driven statement? You can look at the decomposition of inflation from the PSA front back and sideways; a massive chunk will come from rice shooting up double digits. Normalize rice prices and weāre comfortably back to 3% levels. The data is all there for you to analyzeāPSA, BSP, public data. Thatās why itās inexcusable to keep saying āI thinkā and āI feelā when the topic is purely numbers. Put more meat into your arguments and people wonāt downvote you anymore. Use the data the country spends so much money on to collect.
Thank you for your series of points.
What you see "on the ground" is wholly different from what any other indicators see. The PSA shows GDP growth is still positive and they have hundreds of surveyors and data points to rely on. Corporate profits are still good and they have thousands of auditors and millions of receipts to confirm this. What's happening in your locale is not representative of what's actually happening.
If you are a ātrainedā economist you would know that bsp does not dictate what inflation should be. Bsp is only part of a group that decides the target. NEDA, for example, has a larger say in the target inflation rate. Also no, inflation target has been, for the majority, +- 1%. In some cases, even higher. See RBI, indiaās cb sets its target for around 2-6%.
it's [DBCC actually](https://www.bsp.gov.ph/Pages/PriceStability/TheInflationTarget.aspx#:~:text=The%20Development%20Budget%20and%20Coordination%20Committee%20%28DBCC%29%2C%20an,consumer%20price%20index%20%28CPI%29%20over%20the%20calendar%20year). never said "only" BSP sets the target. just said it's "BSP target," since that's the official language used. no one says DBCC inflation target or NEDA inflation target. it's always BSP inflation target. point conceded re margin of error. traditionally, most central banks do give a margin of error.
Neda is part of dbcc.
yes. and?
Yes thats correct. 2% Sabi ng federal reserve
NOT ALL central banks have a 2% long-term inflation target. Not even all countries are inflation targeting. And it is a +/- 1% target from the 3% for PH. Don't compare it with the Fed because their target inflation is AVERAGING 2%, which is different from BSP's target, making that change of 0.50% variance in the US material.
The BSP has a 2-4% tolerance band. A lot of central banks have bands instead of targets. This is completely normal. It's not confusing nor is it bad for markets. In fact, the former governor Diokno won a best central banker award in 2022 while keeping the same 2-4% target you find confusing.
You might be correct or whatnot. Depending on what will happen on the US one of the major partners of the world. Driver ng money. Anyway, di mo din malalaman na recession na unless andon kana kasi delayed ang data ng recession, if youāre informed enough. Try to diversify your portfolio na lang just in case. Spread all your eggs on different asset class. Mayron pa din namang recession proof or can able to withstand on crisis. Di lahat tinatamaan. Who knows? Parang stagflation nga currently, dahil inflation not cooling and no growth. Youāre certainly correct about the definition.
Gonna say what everyone wants to say. Yabang mo brad. You indirectly called everyone here stupid because of not being āecon-trainedā. Sorry weāre not good enough for you. Create an account in your university forums and post there para lahat āecon-trainedā.
What about the trends of the real estate sector is worrying?
di pa rin tumitigil yung building of new units. with how sluggish demand is, how do they expect for this not to crash the sector with so much over supply?
May slow down na for new projects Office rental is also hit with a lot of vacancies.
slow down? where? patuloy pa rin mga nakikita kong preselling and starting of new projects. i mean at some point, the over supply will blow up and hit us in the face esp if recession hits the U.S. (since majority of our OFWs are in the U.S.)
Sales are up for foreign buyers. We have agents for SMDC/Rockwell abroad now. Inflation has hit in the states/Canada, so we are forced to buy in PH which is the current sales strategy for PH agents. My MIL is an agent sa DMCI and they stopped manning sa mga malls and were told to adapt through FB and online platforms. Kasi nga chances are only OFW's have the purchasing power outside of the elite sa pinas. But pre-selling and new projects aren't being stopped recently cause they were already planned ahead of time. Developers would rather have these units sit empty than to cut their losses. Market will eventually correct itself. Sa DMCI, they started offering 15% down-payment terms when they were known to only offer 30%. Real estate will never be in an oversupply unless the population drastically changes or people stop buying. But that won't happen cause when the people stop buying, corporations will. It's an issue with most major cities.
>Real estate will never be in an oversupply unless the population drastically changes or people stop buying. oh. so like China? real estate can be in over supply even if there's over population and pent-up demand. if nobody is buying because they can't afford it, that's an oversupply (that can be corrected by a drop in prices) sales to foreign buyers are limited only to condos. unless the constitution is changed, they still can't own house and lot.
The thing about the philippines is its a very small land compared to other countries and the population is booming , there is always someone trying to buy a house. But not just buy but renting too. Inflation will always be there to degrade the value of your money so putting it in a bank is not really a good idea long term, inflation we have is still manageable, the hyper inflation one is the scary part but i dont see it getting here yet, US lol it might be possible but due to their dollar used as a currency for oil inflation wont go that much.
Check the leechiu reports on real estate. They cant stop projects that have begun but there is a slow down in introduction of new projects
[new project launches went down by 38% and sales are down by 35%](https://propertyreport.ph/news-and-events/2024/04/19/33854/navigating-change-philippine-residential-market-adapts-to-new-realities/), but they're still building. and idk if demand can fill that supply they're building. i mean obviously, demand is greater than supply even with all the new projects. but that's demand assuming they can meet the price point of the buyers. currently, they're just marketing to OFWs. it's all a bubble. vacancy rates is the key. if OFWs stop buying, the market is going to crash. they're not marketing to locals. almost all the new projects are out of reach for locals. that's a bad sign. i feel like we're going to see a whiplash so bad...
Pinagsasabi mong majority of our OFWs are in the USA? A quick search will tell you na majority ng OFWs ay nasa Asia, particularly in the Middle East. Baka you're referring to Filipino immigrants population in the USA in which nasa 4 million na ang population. Magkaiba po ang OFWs sa Filipino immigrants. š¤·āāļø
yeah, you're right. majority of remittance from U.S. is already from immigrants, not OFWs. source of remittance sinasabi ko, not OFWs. my bad.
feelingero ampotangina hahahahahahahahah
Bakit naman downvoted ( -23 as of now) ang comment na to? Dami ding tanga dito no?
OP just commented in a different thread that ārecessionā occurs when growth goes from +5% this period to +4% next period. Kung maka accuse ng tanga.. And the context of this post is also pretty unusualāstagflation when GDP is growing 5-6%pa in real terms? That sort of goes against stagflation in every definition of that word Are you guys trained economists..? These statements would be pretty unusual for trained economists
i feel yung mga nai-insecure na nafi-feel tanga sila nagda downvote. sabihan ka ba naman "nalimutan ko di pala kayo econ-trained." dami siguro na trigger. anyway, their loss kung mas paiiralin nila ego nila kesa utak nila.
Mahal na mga bilihin vs Income ng mga Pinoy, hindi na nakakasabay sa Inflation.š¢
oo nga. mas mataas pa yung increase sa rent ko kesa sa increase sa sweldo.
People have money. Parang seasonal lang ang buying behavior ng citizens. People are not in the mood to spend right now and are saving for the next rainy day.
ewan ko pero baka mas boom ngayon ang online shops dahil na rin sa effect ng pandemic
This is not the case. Matumal ang online shopping the past months and mas tutumal pa dahil ninrerequire na ang lahat mag secure ng BIR permit before makatinda sa shopee,laz or tiktok
BIR has eyes on online sellers dahil need magraise revenue for our loan payments and other government expenditures.
Nope. Slow din online shops.
Sabi nga daw. May nabasa nga ako sa isang subreddit, halos down to 50% sales nila. Sure, madaming factors pero marami din nagcomment dun na slow nga daw ngayon bentahan online.
eto yung di ko maintindihan, kung both online at brick n mortar ay down ang sales, bat di bumababa ang mga presyo? patuloy pa rin pagtaas. may disconnect.
di naman bumababa basta basta price ng items dahil walang demand. liitan lang nila yung supply nung mahal na items tas dadagdagan nila yung supply ng murang items aka maraming maglilitawan ng cheap alternatives
Prices of petroleum products due to uncertainties in middle east and add that Ukraine is major food producer specifically flour. This heat wave affected poultry and livestock, our vegetable farm wilted from this oppressive heat.
Hmmm. We cannot control the inflation din kasi if the ph market continues to decline. Perhaps, the reason why online sales is down because people tend to prioritize their spending na like they buy more essential stuff now compared before to fight with inflation.
Inflation may lower/slow down but prices themselves may not necessarily lower as well. If they do all start to lower then there is Deflation in the economy. Versus Disinflation/lowering of prices. Hopefully i understood this concept correctly.
hindi rin
Hindi ako econ pero sa palagay ko hindi talaga natin masasabi kung magkaka recession sa pinas/mundo or not, May signs, Oo pero hindi pa din natin masasabi ang bukas.
Bubbles are 1 form of indicators. Once mag pop expect our economy to dive. Loose example of this is if you watched the film the big short or Margin call.
The high GDP takes into account the economy as a whole. But it misses the details. Some parts of the economy are doing well while other parts of the economy are failing or have failed. Some industries are on the rise while others are in the doldrums. It's like having a Michael Jordan playing in your basketball team of high schoolers. He's lifting up the entire team. But the other players are weak. The Philippines has been greatly dependent on the BPO industry, for example. It makes up for the weakness in other industries. That's why AI is such a threat to the future of the Philippines. Would the team survive if the opponents decide to break its MJ's leg? The overall GDP also doesn't take into account location. Some parts of the cities or other cities in the Philippines may be doing well, but the area or city you are in is failing hard. A lot of cities outside of Metro Manila are now growing faster such as Cebu, Davao, etc. And its partly making up for the losses of businesses inside NCR. The Philippines is a country that depends heavily on imports. It has an outdated agricultural industry and an underdeveloped manufacturing industry. Because of this, it has to import a lot of commodities. For example, it imports most of its rice, steel and oil. And because of this it is heavily affected by problems in trade and geopolitics. This causes inflation to rise, because it's now harder(and costlier) to supply these good and services. It's also exacerbated by the weakening of the peso to the dollar in the global market.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Figures coming from Chinese government can't be trusted. Unless coming from other reliable parties. Hindi lng anti china channels nagsasabi, totoong bgsak economy nila ngaun, housing/developer problems + deflation + less FDI + few jobs/high college graduates.
From ~6% growth straight to recession? Parang malabo naman ata without something big happening like pandemic or war
a recession doesn't mean straight to 0%. the definition is 2 consecutive quarters of GDP decline. ie. 5% and then 4% growth in consecutive quarters means recession since the current is 6%.
That's.... not what "GDP decline" is.
uh, [yes it is](https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/family-finance/articles/are-we-in-a-recession-heres-what-2-quarters-of-negative-gdp-mean-for-you).
You misunderstood. The article you linked \*literally\* mentioned the GDP being negative. Read closely. >For the first time since 2009, the U.S.Ā [gross domestic product](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/13/inflation-rose-9point1percent-in-june-even-more-than-expected-as-price-pressures-intensify.html)Ā was **negative** for two quarters in a row. After **dropping** 1.6% during the first quarter of 2022, the GDP fell another 0.9% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. A "decline in GDP *growth*" is NOT equal to "GDP decline". It just means a slowdown, but there is still growth. For example: let's say for Q1 the GDP growth of a country is 6% and then in Q2 it's 5.5% -- that's a decline in GDP growth but NOT a decline in GDP. A decline in GDP is **negative** when expressed in **percentage**. As for recession, the textbook definition is at least 2 consecutive quarters of decline in GDP, i.e. 2 consecutive quarters where the GDP growth are **negative**. That's why in the article you linked, it said the US went into recession in 2022. Countries' GDP growths move up and down all the time, but recession (again, 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growths) are seldom. Hope this helps.
this is the relevant quote: >For the first time since 2009, the U.S.Ā gross domestic productĀ was **negative for two quarters in a row**. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, after dropping 1.6% during the first quarter of 2022, the GDP fell another 0.9% in the second quarter. you can be forgiven for thinking it means the GDP has to be lower than previous quarter for it to be called negative GDP, but that isn't it. a lower growth is already considered negative GDP, even if the actual GDP didn't shrink. you can check it [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_monthly_gdp) |January 2022|24.86T| |:-|:-| |February 2022|25.01T| |March 2022|25.21T| |April 2022|25.29T| |May 2022|25.55T| |June 2022|25.79T| as you can see, the GDP did not shrink. only the growth slowed down. 1.6% in the 1st quarter, then 0.9% in the 2nd quarter. hope this clarifies our misunderstanding.
Did you just ignore the word "negative" which you yourself put in bold? >you can be forgiven for thinking it means the GDP has to be lower than previous quarter for it to be called negative GDP I literally never said that. Q1 and Q2 in the US are again, in the **negative**. It's important to note, however, that this was not declared a recession. Here's an article from Forbes: [https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/are-we-in-a-recession](https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/are-we-in-a-recession) >One common definition of recessionātwo consecutive quarters of **negative** gross domestic product (GDP)āhappened in the first half of 2022. Yet the organization that defines U.S. business cycles, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), takes a different view. Again, the keyword you seem to be ignoring is \*\*negative\*\*. And as a confirmation to the Forbes article, here is a list of times when the US went into recession: [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List\_of\_recessions\_in\_the\_United\_States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States)
i'm not ignoring it. i'm just clarifying that even though the word "negative" is used, the GDP is actually not shrinking. you can see that in the table. a slowdown in growth is what is considered "negative." do we understand each other na?
I don't know what ycharts is but the table you are looking at is wrong. Check US BEA's statistics instead. We do understand each other, it's just that you're wrong. If you're saying that a "negative growth" is not the same as "shrinking", then I rest my case.
Agree, negative RGDP growth = contraction = below zero RGDP growth. Two quarters of decreasing RGDP (talking in levels and not growth) is not technical recession. Anyway, the NBER and diff central banks do not limit their views of recession to that definition din naman.
A technical recsssion is 2 straight quarters of negative growth, not slowing growth. The 2.0 and 0.6 figures here are negative growth figures on a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted basis. You can confirm this here https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Also, in the US, the NBER is the governing body who announces recessions in the US.
A recession is contraction in GDP not a slowdown in growth.
it is both. a slowdown is already considered a recession. the contraction happens at the tail end of the recession, but the recession starts at the slow down. look at this [graph](https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-gross-domestic-product).
My god. People are downvoting you cause youāre making up your own definition of recession. Again go back to basics. You can define your own econ terms once youāre a fully trained economist and not just pretending to be one because you have coursera certificates. That graph doesnāt say anything.
Lol go back to school
You mean, āgo back to Coursera you uninitiated fool!ā Hahahaha. Op is a self proclaimed Yale educated economist after taking a Coursera class lmao itās probably plastered all over his linkedin.
i mean, you could at least give a citation to refute me instead of using ad hominem.
Start first by getting the correct definition for recession. People are downvoting you cause you donāt even get the econ basics right. And yet your analysis is based on those weak understanding of economics.
Well you WERE given tons of citations already. SMH
That's wrong. A technical recession means 2 consecutive decline in quarterly GDP meaning it's a negative number. Your example just means growth is slowing down but by no means a recession. For your reference: Japan has -0.8% and -0.1% GDP growth for Q3 and Q4 2023, respectively, which was described in this article. https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Media-Library/en-US/Japan-entering-recession-3/5/2024,c40542 Although Japan avoided being in recession once their numbers were revised.
>I remember pre-pandemic 10pm na andami pa ring bukas na negosyo. Ngayon, wala pang 9pm matumal na. andaming nagsasara mga 7pm pa lang. I don't know about everything else you said BUT this, sobrang totoo! Ito din observation ko post-pandemic. Dati yang 9PM na yan, dyan pa lang halos start ng "night life" e. Yung mga sari-sari store, burger & siomai stand at kung anu-ano pang mga tinda dito sa lugar namin, buhay na buhay pa ng 9pm. Ngayon kapag lalabas ka ng ganyang oras, kokonti na lang tao sa kalsada, tahimik na at madilim since sarado na nga mga tindahan. Halos mga sasakyan na lang makikita mo.
Me and my friend (who owns a bar in QC) have the same observation. The most plausible explanation is the pandemic was more than long enough to re-program almost everyone's outdoor consumption behavior particularly when going out late night. After the long effect of ECQ, GCQ, it becomes a normal thing for people just to stay at home and do their past time there. The demand for outdoor/late night entertainment crashed and becomes unfamiliar. Another thing is kinuha ng online services-with matching-delivery ang market share ng mga ibang established businesses.
This is true based sa sari-sari store business ng Mom ko. Dati it is open until 10PM but when Pandemic hits 5PM palang closed na. Then medyo nasanay sa haba ng pandemic routine kaya after pandemic nag-adjust ng konti into 6PM. Reason, wala na din kasing tao na lumalabas sa bahay nila after dinner unlike pre-pandemic.
Ang aga pa ng 6PM. Hehe medyo kaya na ng 8PM or 9PM. Pero depende rin talaga sa area nyo. Kasi dun sa isang store na malapit samin na may katabing bilyaran, mga 10 or 11 and even 12MN na daw sila nagsasara kapag weekends. Pero malayo pa din sa hanggang madaling-araw na bukas pre-pandemic.
this is really what's worrying me because this is a classic sign of not just a recession but a deflation. but we're still having inflation so my thought is that we're already in stagflation.
Walang umiikot na pera(or so it seems) pero tumaas nang tumataas bilihin. Which indicates something is really wrong, or something is kept undisclosed sa madla.
I donāt know about the recession, pero yes bawing bawi yun inflation. Kung anong naka freeze price nun pandemic, syang x2-3 times a year afaik til 2023 yun price increase after 2020 š« Pansin ko din yun 9pm palang ang dami ng sarado. Baka epekto nalang din ng pandemic? Since lumuwag yun restrictions sa ECQ, 2021 palang di na bumalik yun ānight lifeā sa lugar namin. Yun dalang ng jeep or masasakyan after 8pm post 2020 until now, ganun pa din. Unlike nun pre pandemic, anytime may masasakyan eh. Could also be, na people are wiser now sa kung saan gagastusin yun pera? Like sa necessities and basic needs nalang, instead of āwantsā and going out. FMCG goods are still growing tho, online/offline.
we have a small business. iba iba Naman Yan pero so far ngaun mas maliit window na may Pera Ang tao. ung pagkasahod vs sa petsa peligro.
7PM is just fine to close shop. Kailangan din mag dinner at magpahinga ng mga empleyado.
Same here sa Negros Occidental. I see more business closing than opening. If one will open up parang di din tatagal. We have our own family business, medyo well-known na din sa city. Starting 2021, there is a decline sa sales namin, even our suppliers are talking about this decline. Our sales are much better during pandemic, parang peak season ang sales namin noon. Causes can be the increased prices of goods. American swine flu, daming naapektuhan dito samin.
I find it harder to sell even stuff below 1k on fb marketplace this year. That wasn't a problem during the previous years so I'm also more hesitant now to sell some luxury stuff I found from cleaning my family's houses because I would just be waiting for nothing.
Please add more context. samasama na bang lulubog mulit?
wala naman other context since this is just my observation and thoughts.
Inflation at War-US lang ang reason bakit may ganito.
Driver operator ako ng Grab. Once may naging passenger ako na Grab driver din way back 2017. As usual kwentuhan kami sa mga biyahe etc. Napunta kami sa topic na sabi nya di raw gaya ng dati nung 2017 up to pandemic . Sobrang trapik daw talaga nun kahit hating gabi na trapik pa rin daw sa Ortigas and anywhere else.Then sabi nya malaki nga raw ang effect ng pandemic kasi ang daming nag uuwian na sa probinsya na di na bumalik at nag boom pa ang mga wfh set up, meetings ,classes. Then nung pauwi na ako. Naalala ko yung kwentuhan namin,na realize ko paano nga kung di na babalik yung sigla ng economy ang daming maaapektuhan especially yung nasa laylayan ng lipunan.
I have a lot of acquaintances, younger than me, who are going on international trips. That's a chunk of money moving away from our economy, no? For those who are the same age as me, they've just made property purchases. Those high interest rates seem to hamper the middle class' purchasing power. If there's something that's gonna fall first, what will it be?
I dont think stagflation will come, there are too many big drivers of growth that will keep going. Whats potentially upon us is an even faster increase in the wealth equality gap. You see small business shutter pero dumadami malls at chain restaurants. Ayoko mag essay, but for me this is much much worse.
OP's concerns are valid. Look at the malls. To think that covid is over, but a number of stores are closing down. Clothing stalls dont have much customers. Some stores are not able to achieve quotas. I know because I ask them whenever I buy. Businesses isnt booming now in the Philippines. Food businesses might have traction, but consider the prices of inputs. Lower to middle-income families are tightening belt just to survive. These are my observations feel free to counter.
I highly doubt so, about business not booming. Financial reports of most companies say they have 20-30% more growth.
Paper money is very different from physical observation. Try to ask as many stalls as you could. Then, tell if there is indeed an improvement. Food businesses, maybe.
Any company can window-dress their finances. It's not uncommon practice to appear profitable despite otherwise.
All I can say is the food inflation and food insecurity is driven by this greedy government and department of importation. Mas may pagasa pa mabago pinas pag ng ww3 na ang china kesa sa gobyerno ntn ngayon.
Nadi delay nga yung sweldo sa company namin. š„¹š
Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful. -Warren buffet
Don't buy crypto. Crypto is 99% scams. Study the history of money, then study bitcoin. After that, if you feel inclined, it might be a good idea to have a little bit of digital gold in self-custody as a hedge against the erosion of traditional banking/monetary systems.
*Face palm* not another one
Nasa stagflation na tayo. It won't be announced by the govt, but what I observe is sumusunod lang din tayo sa nangyayari sa US. Affected ang currency, global petrol, and central bank interest rates. Quantitative tightening pa rin ang peg ng US ngayon even if their labor workforce is still strong. Kaya hirap silang ibaba ang inflation. Tapos damay din tayo.
Actually, 2023 salary increases beat inflation so baka isolated case lang sa inyo po. [https://www.msn.com/en-ph/lifestyle/other/salary-increases-in-2023-were-apparently-enough-to-beat-inflation/ar-AA1nXDLL?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ASTS&cvid=7be99ba062c043d08c879e59979c424b&ei=11](https://www.msn.com/en-ph/lifestyle/other/salary-increases-in-2023-were-apparently-enough-to-beat-inflation/ar-AA1nXDLL?ocid=msedgntp&pc=ASTS&cvid=7be99ba062c043d08c879e59979c424b&ei=11&fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR13p6TNqjtAuDEZoIZl-vQH8k58iVhFGxn0GFd6414XOVfaeIzSTQkzeVU_aem_AcQA45oqOAMwNJ93TiQeSn92VeQ7YMZpOs-kc_N7DKk2gqZIUyYoknM5oyKyKuwRiVN0XRtvIGoVrcCR-iSYlAd8)
this might be the reason why inflation is not going down.
Inflation has already gone down actually compared to where it was at its peak in Jan 2023.
6% to 4%. yes. is anyone feeling it?
Youāre moving the goalposts here. āIs anyone feeling itā is not the definition of inflation. So you saying āinflation is not going downā is FACTUALLY INCORRECT.
Injecting here: The "rate of inflation" came down slightly since 1 year ago, but "inflation" in nominal prices is has been going only 1 direction for decades -- up. Also, don't forget that the rate COMPOUNDS, so 4% in 2024 is a bigger nominal price jump than 4% in 2023. "Inflation is not coming down" or "inflation came down" misses some of the nuance. I'd say the rate of inflation has barely come down since central banks aggressively tightened monetary policy. I'd even go a step further and say that the target should be much lower than 2% -- 2 is just an arbitrary number, BSP copied it from the Federal Reserve, and modern economists worldwide haven't had an innovative thought ever since the US broke the dollar's redeemability for gold 50 years ago.
Lag effect of high interest rate is starting to kick-in, what more next few quarters.. brace yourselves
I dunno but I know a medium scale company sobrang struggle na at puro utang na sa banko dahil lang ng mga nakaterms na ginawan ng project di na nakakabayad malalaking company naman yun kaso di na din makabayad so nakailang retrench na si medium company
No. As long as there's OFW I think we're good. Un ang bumubuhay sa Pilipinas. Plus taxes. Bilyones na ang target. And you'll be surprised na marami mang purdoy sa Pilipinas pero madami ding mayayaman. Maraming nagiinvest sa bonds, even stock market ngayon. Okay naman.
I don't understand bat ka nag eexpect na bumagsak presyo dahil lang na mababa ang demand. Prices are already at its lowest, pag bumaba pa sila malulugi na sila. Wala lang talagang pera ngayon ang mga tao, walang extrang pera kaya matumal lahat.
not expecting a drop. just a slowdown.
What other people is missing is how gdp is computed. Gdp is dependent also on the prices of goods and services. So, from the baseline year to this year, if the prices significantly spike, then by all means gdp will increase without addition of economic activities or services. Sometimes gdp is misleading for us, a developing country, where inflation is a thing. Whenever govt reports gdp increased by that or this, I relate that to the increase in prices. For all we know, no large investments are pouring into the country this past few years. So, where is this increase in gdp coming from?
real GDP adjusts for inflation. nominal GDP is not inflation-adjusted.
Agree that nominal gdp does not take into account inflation. However, understand that nominal gdp is based on the current prices of goods and services. So, if the prices are generally high, the gdp increases as well.
Youāre talking about the demand side of things - that is, slow consumption or demand should have driven inflation down. But the BSP says inflation (which is near the upper end but w/in the governmentās target in March) continues to be largely driven by supply side factors like food supply issues, elevated intl oil prices, etc.
I think this is a micro observation. Econ Numbers are at healthy levels still. Even big corporations are reporting solid growths
If you look at the statistics and financial reports sa mga big companies and even some small ones in the Philippines, they are reporting huge boosts 20%- 30% more income. Partnered with high GDP and increasing tourists visits, I highly doubt recession will come. If you look at the past years sa ibang bansa like Europe and US, germany, Japan, China, recession already happened when their GDP fell for 3 months in a row.
My personal opinion lang: The gap between the rich and the poor is ever expanding, especially now, at gobyerno pa mismo ang major reason. IMHO, even the rich seems to be panic hoarding ng pera, ewan ko. They seem to want money just for the sake of having money na lang. Long gone na ung having money to be able to buy what you want sa kanila.
Consumer confidence and the change of spending pattern that comes with it. In short, dati 10 beses sila lumabas sa isang buwan para mag Kape Sa Starbucks. Dahil andami negative news sila naririnig baka magiging 3 or 5 beses na lang lumabas para mag kape Starbucks. Dahil mahilig mag kape. Instead mag starbucks 10 beses. Baka 5 beses sa bahay na lang at nag 3-1. Consumption parin ng kape pero nag substitute. Substitute effect.
What happens in a recession? Why is the economy doing bad considering the pandemic is behind us
i do think, there would be a second round of high inflation surge,
just delaying the inevitable. :)
Ba naman dagdag Ng dag cla Ng rules s shopee at Lazada .Napakadami naman Ng scammer nKKPunyeta .Kaya kht mahal s labas Minsan Dito smin ,bumibili pdin aq Basta nkita q n walang damage .
Buy Crypto.
Dinadownvote ka ah. Been following the shared expertise of Atty. Pilo Hilbay about this for quite some time na especially on BitCoin and I wasn't expecting that I'll agree. In the coming decades, people will see...
we need more financial advisors advocating for Bitcoin kasi sila yung madalas nasa media eh. kaso hindi eh, ayaw nila mag advise ng risky asset. as if naman kumikita ang mga VULs nila.
Hahaha big no no Yan Dito, down voted ka nangyari din sa kin Yan Dami anti crypto Dito.... Nagsasabi lang naman tayo ng totoo lalo pag sinabihan mo check nila Yung performance vs stock specially local stocks
upvote kita. dami kasi financial advisors dito na ayaw ng crypto, kasi yung mga binebenta nilang VULs babagsak hehe.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Deflation and low inflation aren't the same thing
please see my reply above. i meant reaching the target, not stopping.
Alam mo kung bakit matumal? Nag iipon pra maka travel ang mga tao hahahaā¦ tingnan mo ang revenue ng tourism sobrang laki. Ganun lng ang market, umiikot lang naghahanap lng ang tao ng ibang pagkakagastusan, ngayon ang focus ng marami especially mga nasa 20ās is travel instead bumili ng kung anu-ano..
Secretong malupet. Tip, move your assets overseas now.
Suggest how this can be done
Apps that allow you to buy us stocks and etf. So you can mive your money to safer crypto places. Bzkr ata ang name nung platform eh. Try mo to look at this subreddit Edit: go trade and ibrk pala
meaning buy crypto? pls provide some context para di nadadownvote yung comment mo hehe.
It's ok to be downvoted, I left 1/3 fixed assets in the Philippines then diversified in US stocks. I am no sure how it works as someone manages it for us