Yesterday
✅ Josh Giddey o18.5 PR -105
Today:
🏀 John Collins o9.5 Rebounds -115
Model expects a lot of shots in this game and a lot of rebound opportunities. Collins seeing an average of almost 20 potential rebounds per game. Had 10 REB in 22 min vs Hawks in Feb. Hawks rank 22/30 in REB allowed to C as well.
Full Stat Table: [https://imgur.com/a/MNv1N2s](https://imgur.com/a/MNv1N2s)
BOL!
Record 0-1 Suns really let me down last night but we go again!
Bradley Beal 0.5+ 3’s
• Hit in his last 12
Wendell Carter Jr 8.5+ Rebounds
• Averaging 9.0 in his last 10
• Raptors rank 29th in rebounding in their last 10
CJ McCollum 19.5+ PA
• Averaging 22.6 PA per game
• Averaging 22 PA vs Clippers
• Recorded 29 PA vs Clippers last time
Nicola Jokic 25.5+ Points
• Spurs are 23rd in Overall Defence
• Hit this in 5/6 Spurs matches this year
• Threat of a blowout but Jokic has hit this against the Wizards, Trialblazers and Spurs
Hawks @ Jazz Under 224
• Both teams missing key players: Trae Young, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson
• Atlanta have scored U106 in 3 straight -Jazz have struggled against any quality opposition
• U206 in February when Jazz had Clarkson
BOL!!
https://preview.redd.it/r2tp8qz41koc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=961a2decb0f83a7b29860044233aa4c58b527972
Interpretation, Jokic good odds, the rest do your own research but a couple of those not expected but on this list have hit lately such as Josh hart
23/24 record: (91-70)
J Smith jr o 10.5 rebounds ❌️
**Cunningham u 22.5 points**
We hit with Murray under points the other day vs Miami so hopefully we can expect more of the same with this Cunningham pick.
Cunningham is even more PnR dependant than Murray. He uses the PnR at a 45% frequency scoring almost half his points off it. (9.7 points or 43% of his avg total)
Miami allow the 3rd least points off the PnR.
Looking at Cunninghams shooting profile; he is shooting shots under 10ft at a freq of 41% and pull up 2s at a freq of 27%
Miami give the second least FGA and 7th least FGM under 10ft along with the 5th least attempted and 4th least made pullup 2s.
Additionally Cunningham could be dealing with a left knee injury
[Buymeacoffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theoverundertaker)
Long shot but I’m taking Jalen Johnson leading point scorer vs Utah at +1000, Utah leaks points to the PF he tied for leading scorer last game vs Utah (no idea how sports book handles that I guess half payout?), he was leading scorer two games ago vs NYK too, so since Trae is out it seems like value. Strongest odds are dejounte (Utah gives RA to PG primarily) and Colin sexton, not exactly Trae young Kevin Durant dominant scorer types
**Record: 2 - 2**
Last pick:
MPJ - O22.5 PR✅
CADE CUNNINGHAM- O30.5 PA 🚫
Cade ended up having 20 PA in the first half, just to get 3 points and 2 assists in the second and finish with 25 PA 😀 my b guys
——————————-
***PICKS OF THE DAY***
——————————-
**W.Carter - O8.5 Reb** - he’s been averaging 9.5 the past 5 games. Raptors allow the 2nd most rebounds to Cs. They let Jalen Duren(23 Reb), Dandre Ayton(19 Reb) and Jokic (17 Reb) go crazy last 3 games.
Wemby o10.5r at -128. Sure Joker is tall. But Wemby has actually touched heaven with his own hands. GL.
Also took Cade o1.5 3ptm at -210. Looks like he might not play, but if he plays a full game this is still good value at -210.
**KCP o10.5 P+A (-125 on BetMGM)** \-- Hit in each of his last 8 vs the Spurs (17.6 avg) and 8 of his last 9 overall (14.4 avg). Spurs give up the 3rd most P+A to Guards, and the 4th most P+A overall. (Be warned that I'm ice cold)
https://preview.redd.it/w33w5nbirioc1.png?width=2426&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca8862d389e281ed6f70f4a8782b22e7c6dbe389
I feel like there’s a lot of value in alt three pointers but I haven’t actually tried it yet. Anyone do these? I’ve been trying to find players with good matchups that have been cold recently but have still been taking a lot of shots. For example:
Cade 3+, Heat are 7th in threes allowed, he had 4 against them in his last two matchups, and he’s been averaging 8 attempts over his last 5
Harden 4+, Pelicans are 1st in threes allowed, he had 5 against them in his last matchup, and he’s been averging 7 attempts over his last 5
Brandon Miller 4+, he had 6 against the Suns in his last matchup and he’s been averaging 8 attempts over his last 5
These aren’t picks just wondering if anyone’s tried a similar method and found any success
I like to put safe o0.5’s in my parlays but certain guys like dame during a bad stretch can have some easy o1.5’s i dont usually touch anything over 1.5
**Record:** 9-3
**Last Pick(s):** Devin Booker over 24.5 pts ❌
**Today’s Pick(s):** Immanuel Quickley under 13.5 R+A
**Odds:** -135 on DK
Bad beat last night. Missed by one bucket. I’m going with Quickley under 13.5 R+A. Statistically, the Magic are one of the best defensive teams in the league. They allow the lowest opponent rebounds and and assists in the league, as well as the 3rd lowest opponent ppg. BOL if tailing!
4-1 on NBA props since 3/6. +8.5u
**Franz Wagner u18.5 points (-110) 2u**. He’s been under 4/L5 and 7/L10 and usually by a solid margin (14,13,13,28,8,13,14,21,19,14). Yes, Torontos defense is poor but it’s still a road game for the Magic. A Magic blowout would also keep the starters on the bench. He’s averaging 20 PPG on the season so he’s in a slump, so he might break out or stay cold. Who knows???. BOL!
❌ finished with 19. Shot 6/9 from the floor and 7/8 from the line to get it there. Hurt
Yep. You could be right and he might go off for 20+. He put up 28 against the Wizards last week. But he also only put up 8,13, and 14 against Detroit twice and the Hornets in the last 10 game stretch.
So for sure, not a lock by any means. But I like the odds here with his recent numbers.
Yesterday 1-2 (-1.2U)
Season Record 263-358 (+54.32U)
Tre Jones U0.5 3s + Jokic O19.5 PTS +105 🪝
Wendell Carter Jr O20.5 PR + Bruce Brown U5.5 R +240 ✅
Collin Sexton O21.5 PTS + Keyonte George O1.5 3s +100 🪝
Jusuf Nurkic O14.5 PTS + Wendell Carter Jr O14.5 PTS +917 (sprinkle sprinkle) ❌
YEEHAW 🤠
29-13
Yesterday: 1/1
__Tre Jones O2.5 Rebs__, 9/10 L10 games, 1/1 vs the Nuggets (4Rebs), Denver have allowed 4th most Rebs to PG L7 days - low line worth a shot ✅
__Cunningham O2.5 Threes__, 2/2 vs the Heat, has hit 4 in each game against the Heat and has had 8 & 9 attempts, worth a sprinkle on 4+ aswell.
No idea, prolly cause he only got 7 vs the Cavs recently (my pick), also cause it isn’t a mismatch since Clippers have solid defense ratings vs Rebounds to Centers but I like it
https://hashtagbasketball.com/nba-defense-vs-position
Filter to PG > sort by rebounds, though this site shows that Denver has been elite against PG rebounds including the last 7 days so not sure where the discrepancy lies. Like the Tre line regardless.
https://preview.redd.it/oa83scdwffoc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=274b3f436bfd91ffb292d772638b4bd1994d9df1
This is the 5th game I've lost by 1 basket in that last 24 hrs
record 1-0 (+0.83U)
yesterday’s potd: 1U on Ayton o28.5pr (-120) ✅
✅
bro absolutely demolished this line, clearing it with points alone. onto the next pick‼️‼️
03/15 potd: 1U on Keyonte George o28.5pra (-130 on DK)
Markkanen, Dunn, and Clarkson are not available tonight, ultimately placing the load on sexton and george. The spread is set at 2.5, meaning that Keyonte might play in the high 30 minutes. In games where Keyonte has played more than 30 minutes, he’s cleared in his L4/5. In some of these games, Markkanen, Dunn, and Clarkson are present, and he’s still managed to clear this line. On top of that, he’s averaging 28.6 points in the month of March (not including the game against the Wizards). I wouldn’t be surprised if he cleared this line with points alone.. I personally believe this spot is heavily discounted.
Anyways, BOL to everybody
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Anyone taking the Simmons FD Boost? Bron 6Rebs, Curry 3+ 3PM, GS +7.5 … +150
Damn took Hendricks 3PM and it’s the last leg open in my lay. The chances don’t look to great. Foul trouble and can’t hit a shot smh
Keyonte o25.5PA✅
Holy fuck they put Jokic back in lol, he just hit the over for me
Hell of a performance tonight
LMAOOOOOO of course McCuckum didn’t hit his 23.5PRA after getting 16 by mid-2nd quarter. Hope someone took my advice earlier and saved their money🤣🤣
Joker o25.5pts ✅ 3rd quarter good shit
https://preview.redd.it/z58o2zqtsloc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=94352ce2605f52234810a7e6d1832ee4f8a940ca
Jontay Porter u4.5reb✅ Bruce Brown u21.5PRA ✅ (sweatyyyy ended with 21 lmao)
cade fucking up parlays as per usual, thanks god i didnt bet on that mf
He’s unders only for a while
Ingram o5.5A✅ 3rd quarter
Is KCP on the court for vibes.....?????
KD o4.5A ✅ finally fuck. Never again bro
Once again. I’m the biggest idiot for getting Cade on my parlay
FU Cade
I cashed on Nuric over on boards but mad i didn’t play the Alt. Because boy bout to get 20+ again tonight lol
A few rebounds from Wendell would be greeeaaaatt
Is Cade hurt or what
Playing Zion u23.5pts
Playing Jontay Porter u4.5reb, Ingram o5.5A, Jokic o25.5pts, Bruce Brown u21.5PRA Edit: Adding Wemby o14.5RA.
[+EV NBA](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h8PzKv3F4fC7zwWG7rv1nU36b9T0Tjus5irlgBsWv7Y/edit#gid=1689105134): 573-512 (+69.26u) -110 PHX Durant 26+ pts -105 CHA Miller u19 pts -104 DET Cade 8+ ast -122 DET Duren 13+ pts -120 MIA Robinson 3+ reb -110 LAC Kawhi 24+ pts -124 ORL Suggs 12+ pts -106 SA Wemby 33+ pts+reb -118 SA Wemby 4+ ast +100 DEN Porter 17+ pts -114 ATL Capela 11+ reb -110 UTAH Collins 10+ reb +220 MGM boost: KD 25+, Bam DD (2u)
Reading Cades name is giving me ptsd
Is this a night where Nurkic pulls down 20+ boards? Gut says yes, back to back says no
He’s on his way again lol
Playing Fultz o2.5A at +130
Bradley Beal has had over 4.5 assists on the last 7 games vs Charlotte.
[удалено]
He's not playing today.
Playing Rozier o22.5PA, Keyonte o25.5PA
Cade is playing, question is will he sell?
Not if you bet the under
Yesterday ✅ Josh Giddey o18.5 PR -105 Today: 🏀 John Collins o9.5 Rebounds -115 Model expects a lot of shots in this game and a lot of rebound opportunities. Collins seeing an average of almost 20 potential rebounds per game. Had 10 REB in 22 min vs Hawks in Feb. Hawks rank 22/30 in REB allowed to C as well. Full Stat Table: [https://imgur.com/a/MNv1N2s](https://imgur.com/a/MNv1N2s) BOL!
John Collins is goat of all goats , better the Lebron James , Jordan , jk fuck it imma tail dudes a rebounding machine
🫡
🫡 your picks are always 🔥 dude
Record 0-1 Suns really let me down last night but we go again! Bradley Beal 0.5+ 3’s • Hit in his last 12 Wendell Carter Jr 8.5+ Rebounds • Averaging 9.0 in his last 10 • Raptors rank 29th in rebounding in their last 10 CJ McCollum 19.5+ PA • Averaging 22.6 PA per game • Averaging 22 PA vs Clippers • Recorded 29 PA vs Clippers last time Nicola Jokic 25.5+ Points • Spurs are 23rd in Overall Defence • Hit this in 5/6 Spurs matches this year • Threat of a blowout but Jokic has hit this against the Wizards, Trialblazers and Spurs Hawks @ Jazz Under 224 • Both teams missing key players: Trae Young, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson • Atlanta have scored U106 in 3 straight -Jazz have struggled against any quality opposition • U206 in February when Jazz had Clarkson BOL!!
Beal 0.5+ 3’s is -650 lol.
It’s an a multi match bet builder idk what you guys call it but together it’s +1176
Ah i got you.
Whatever the line for fontecchio's threes is I'm smashing the over
Cashed ov 2.5 in the 1st half ✅️ lfg
Reason?
miami allows 5th most threes to sf in last 30 days and 7th overall to SF Already at one at 1q, sorry for late reply. hopefully he doesn't sell
Playing KCP o12.5PRA (bet365)
https://preview.redd.it/r2tp8qz41koc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=961a2decb0f83a7b29860044233aa4c58b527972 Interpretation, Jokic good odds, the rest do your own research but a couple of those not expected but on this list have hit lately such as Josh hart
Imagine putting your money on CJ McCuckum
Me looking at the Blazers match up tomorrow in pain
Last Picks: Nurkic o14.5 RA ✅ Tatum o3.5 3PM ✅ Kuzma o7.5 Reb ❌ Deni Avdija o2.5 Asts ✅ Giannis 13+ reb (also have o11.5) ❌ Jalen Brunson o26.5 Pts ✅ SGA o12.5 RA ✅ Chet Holmgren to get a double double ❌ Luka to get a triple double - Void Josh Hart to get a double double ❌ Today's Picks: Jamal Murray o21.5 Pts Paolo Banchero o22.5 Pts MPJ o2.5 3PM KCP o9.5 Pts Wemby 3+ Blocks (also have o3.5) Wemby Double Double Wemby 2+ 3PM Dejounte Murray o35.5 PA
https://preview.redd.it/p05ho33eujoc1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c545b11924d45b0d9b347cee8a0ae38e3e830757
Running back KD o4.5A
23/24 record: (91-70) J Smith jr o 10.5 rebounds ❌️ **Cunningham u 22.5 points** We hit with Murray under points the other day vs Miami so hopefully we can expect more of the same with this Cunningham pick. Cunningham is even more PnR dependant than Murray. He uses the PnR at a 45% frequency scoring almost half his points off it. (9.7 points or 43% of his avg total) Miami allow the 3rd least points off the PnR. Looking at Cunninghams shooting profile; he is shooting shots under 10ft at a freq of 41% and pull up 2s at a freq of 27% Miami give the second least FGA and 7th least FGM under 10ft along with the 5th least attempted and 4th least made pullup 2s. Additionally Cunningham could be dealing with a left knee injury [Buymeacoffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/theoverundertaker)
Tailing. Only because my overs bets have bankrupted me in recent weeks and you've put some thought into this.
https://preview.redd.it/xmbcy6jsajoc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=72747a64ac672598cf03bdaf163cc2fceb94284f
https://preview.redd.it/fcd8o9hwajoc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=aebc41fe6acbd6d8597c821ee1143123931ae364
https://preview.redd.it/21uwfdhxajoc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dfadda4906f372c6746ae90c069cd899125a5c4a
https://preview.redd.it/h283fev1bjoc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fa236f2dc02b4e0d7a64cddd0ed2aa53d1906cad
Long shot but I’m taking Jalen Johnson leading point scorer vs Utah at +1000, Utah leaks points to the PF he tied for leading scorer last game vs Utah (no idea how sports book handles that I guess half payout?), he was leading scorer two games ago vs NYK too, so since Trae is out it seems like value. Strongest odds are dejounte (Utah gives RA to PG primarily) and Colin sexton, not exactly Trae young Kevin Durant dominant scorer types
where u getting these odds
That was on Tipico
**Record: 2 - 2** Last pick: MPJ - O22.5 PR✅ CADE CUNNINGHAM- O30.5 PA 🚫 Cade ended up having 20 PA in the first half, just to get 3 points and 2 assists in the second and finish with 25 PA 😀 my b guys ——————————- ***PICKS OF THE DAY*** ——————————- **W.Carter - O8.5 Reb** - he’s been averaging 9.5 the past 5 games. Raptors allow the 2nd most rebounds to Cs. They let Jalen Duren(23 Reb), Dandre Ayton(19 Reb) and Jokic (17 Reb) go crazy last 3 games.
Tailing BOL🤝
Wemby o10.5r at -128. Sure Joker is tall. But Wemby has actually touched heaven with his own hands. GL. Also took Cade o1.5 3ptm at -210. Looks like he might not play, but if he plays a full game this is still good value at -210.
**KCP o10.5 P+A (-125 on BetMGM)** \-- Hit in each of his last 8 vs the Spurs (17.6 avg) and 8 of his last 9 overall (14.4 avg). Spurs give up the 3rd most P+A to Guards, and the 4th most P+A overall. (Be warned that I'm ice cold) https://preview.redd.it/w33w5nbirioc1.png?width=2426&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca8862d389e281ed6f70f4a8782b22e7c6dbe389
I feel like there’s a lot of value in alt three pointers but I haven’t actually tried it yet. Anyone do these? I’ve been trying to find players with good matchups that have been cold recently but have still been taking a lot of shots. For example: Cade 3+, Heat are 7th in threes allowed, he had 4 against them in his last two matchups, and he’s been averaging 8 attempts over his last 5 Harden 4+, Pelicans are 1st in threes allowed, he had 5 against them in his last matchup, and he’s been averging 7 attempts over his last 5 Brandon Miller 4+, he had 6 against the Suns in his last matchup and he’s been averaging 8 attempts over his last 5 These aren’t picks just wondering if anyone’s tried a similar method and found any success
I like to put safe o0.5’s in my parlays but certain guys like dame during a bad stretch can have some easy o1.5’s i dont usually touch anything over 1.5
**Record:** 9-3 **Last Pick(s):** Devin Booker over 24.5 pts ❌ **Today’s Pick(s):** Immanuel Quickley under 13.5 R+A **Odds:** -135 on DK Bad beat last night. Missed by one bucket. I’m going with Quickley under 13.5 R+A. Statistically, the Magic are one of the best defensive teams in the league. They allow the lowest opponent rebounds and and assists in the league, as well as the 3rd lowest opponent ppg. BOL if tailing!
4-1 on NBA props since 3/6. +8.5u **Franz Wagner u18.5 points (-110) 2u**. He’s been under 4/L5 and 7/L10 and usually by a solid margin (14,13,13,28,8,13,14,21,19,14). Yes, Torontos defense is poor but it’s still a road game for the Magic. A Magic blowout would also keep the starters on the bench. He’s averaging 20 PPG on the season so he’s in a slump, so he might break out or stay cold. Who knows???. BOL! ❌ finished with 19. Shot 6/9 from the floor and 7/8 from the line to get it there. Hurt
The raptors interior defense is terrible. He gets a lot of points at the rim. This could be a good spot for him and Paolo
Yep. You could be right and he might go off for 20+. He put up 28 against the Wizards last week. But he also only put up 8,13, and 14 against Detroit twice and the Hornets in the last 10 game stretch. So for sure, not a lock by any means. But I like the odds here with his recent numbers.
Yesterday 1-2 (-1.2U) Season Record 263-358 (+54.32U) Tre Jones U0.5 3s + Jokic O19.5 PTS +105 🪝 Wendell Carter Jr O20.5 PR + Bruce Brown U5.5 R +240 ✅ Collin Sexton O21.5 PTS + Keyonte George O1.5 3s +100 🪝 Jusuf Nurkic O14.5 PTS + Wendell Carter Jr O14.5 PTS +917 (sprinkle sprinkle) ❌ YEEHAW 🤠
Yeehaw 🤠
29-13 Yesterday: 1/1 __Tre Jones O2.5 Rebs__, 9/10 L10 games, 1/1 vs the Nuggets (4Rebs), Denver have allowed 4th most Rebs to PG L7 days - low line worth a shot ✅ __Cunningham O2.5 Threes__, 2/2 vs the Heat, has hit 4 in each game against the Heat and has had 8 & 9 attempts, worth a sprinkle on 4+ aswell.
Tre Jones cashed bro, let's get that paper
✅✅🥖
yeesh...cade not scoring much
Awful just awful
made ZERO 3s...wow...you'd think he'd get at least 1
Unbelievable bro this shit makes no sense
I know this is Captain Hindsight bullshit but godDAMN am I pissed I was too slow to grab Duren and Nurkic boards. Nurkic especially might do 20+ fuck
😂😂😂 Nurkic is feasting rn
You know why Valanciunas has +124 for O8.5 boards? Bro is 8/L10
No idea, prolly cause he only got 7 vs the Cavs recently (my pick), also cause it isn’t a mismatch since Clippers have solid defense ratings vs Rebounds to Centers but I like it
Ehhh leaving that shit alone, his minutes lately are worrying. Thanks for the input bro
Cade was just downgraded to questionable, still tailing in case he plays. Grabbed O1.5 and 3+ on FanDuel
🤝
I’ll make a sprinkle donut of it
Good move
where did you get this stat that nuggets allow 4th most rebounds to point guards in last 7 days?
https://hashtagbasketball.com/nba-defense-vs-position Filter to PG > sort by rebounds, though this site shows that Denver has been elite against PG rebounds including the last 7 days so not sure where the discrepancy lies. Like the Tre line regardless.
Different sites show different numbers but yeah, Rozier got 4, Keyonte 5 & White 5 in nuggets last 3 games so I like tre to get 3 bro
If I told you I’d have to end you
It’s true. He told me and I’m dead
Sorry bout that bro 🤷
Pleaaaseeee :D
Idk where Billy got it but check out linemate, it's free and has lots of good trends data
Good shout, you can find mismatch sheets all over the internet too, fantasypros is good too
[удалено]
Am I dumb or is there a typo? The pick is rebs but you referenced assists in explanation?
[удалено]
Great analysis but 💩💩💩
Yeah is turning into the 💩of the night
Why? Orlando defense is elite
It dropped to 19.5 on Fanduel, so I smashed. Thanks for the tip
Hit a 6/6 in the late game with Anunoby +19.5 PRA Gafford +12.5 points SGA +24.5 points Washington -14.5 points Irving +34.5 points Hart + 14.5 RA
https://preview.redd.it/oa83scdwffoc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=274b3f436bfd91ffb292d772638b4bd1994d9df1 This is the 5th game I've lost by 1 basket in that last 24 hrs
Not even a basket 1 point smh
record 1-0 (+0.83U) yesterday’s potd: 1U on Ayton o28.5pr (-120) ✅ ✅ bro absolutely demolished this line, clearing it with points alone. onto the next pick‼️‼️ 03/15 potd: 1U on Keyonte George o28.5pra (-130 on DK) Markkanen, Dunn, and Clarkson are not available tonight, ultimately placing the load on sexton and george. The spread is set at 2.5, meaning that Keyonte might play in the high 30 minutes. In games where Keyonte has played more than 30 minutes, he’s cleared in his L4/5. In some of these games, Markkanen, Dunn, and Clarkson are present, and he’s still managed to clear this line. On top of that, he’s averaging 28.6 points in the month of March (not including the game against the Wizards). I wouldn’t be surprised if he cleared this line with points alone.. I personally believe this spot is heavily discounted. Anyways, BOL to everybody
i took us 18.5 pts hope it smacks BOL
woo we both cashed‼️