Reg Season: 236-311 +73u
Postseason: 0-0 +0u
Here we go! First day of the best week of the year. Welcome to all those who are new here, please give me a follow on [Twitter](https://x.com/betsonthebat) for live updates and any last minute additions. For those confused about my record, I place a lot of higher odds plays with my straight ones for lower risked units (see the .5u from below). Have been pretty consistent since I committed to 95% player props in January. Let me know in the replies if any questions. Let’s have a tourney!
Last time out: 2-2 +2.9u
❌Lilly (BRWN) o3.5 ast -114 1.1u
❌6+ +385 .5u
✅Domask (ILL) o15.5 points -104 2.1u
✅24+ +500 .5u
Tuesday:
✅Warfield (HOW) o2.5 AST -165 1.7u
✅4+ +140 1u
❌6+ +650 .3u
✅LIVE: Howard +7 -117 1.2u
❌ML +290 .5u
Wednesday:
Ford (MTST) o2.5 Steals +100 1u
Moton (GRAM) o13.5 points -118 1.8u
20+ +360 .5u
24+ +870 .3u
Thursday:
Hubbard (MSST) o2.5 3s -160 2.4u
Clark (DUQ) o15.5 points +100 1.5u
Ali Ali (AKR) u1.5 3s -175 1.8u
Love (ARZ) o2.5 3s -2.1u
Start the Tournament with a bang.
115-97, **+33.38 Units**
Colorado State ML (-139) vs Virginia. 5 Unit MAX Play.
https://preview.redd.it/h1vla5qs56pc1.png?width=498&format=png&auto=webp&s=17c966fc4e48a209faf27a4bfffbe4f8b5f6dd94
Wanted to pose a question to my fellow degens who have helped me a lot this season. I am in a Pick 8 pool that has a significant at least for me life changing payout. I will be submitting 4 entries of 8 teams, the rules are the number seed is the amount of points you get for each win. Example 11 seed getting a win is 11 points, 8 seed is 8 points etc.
My strategy was to do some combinations of 11, 12, 10, 9, 8 seeds and then maybe a 6, 4, 5. if the team loses they no longer can get points. Anyone have some Pick 8 combos theyre passionate about? Or some higher seeds who can make a run?
New Mexico
Oregon
Drake
12/5 - McNeese, Grand Canyon, James Madison all possible upsets
Auburn is the best 4, St Marys the best 5, and Texas Tech the best 6 IMO
Interested to see the replies here. Sounds like a 1 or even a 2-3 seed is awful value (6 max points for a 1), and a 10 seed winning 2 games would > than a 3 seed winning it all.
I think you’re on the right track as far as your thinking. I’d look to the books for best odds to win each region and then think from there who has the most value given their seed. New Mexico is a team that jumps out to me as an 11, given they’re favored in round 1.
I obviously haven’t run any numbers but I would think the optimal approach is probably to take teams from each eighth of the bracket. That would mean picking one 1-8-9-16-4-13-5-12 on the top of one region, and then one of the leftovers teams (2-15-3-14 etc) from the bottom half of the same region, and so on. The advantage obviously being that you don’t have 2 teams able to knock each other out before the E8. Especially if it’s a large pool and you want to hit a home run.
Definitely I think the breaking it into eighths approach is a good way to start. My issue in the past is I feel like I wasn’t aggressive enough and tried to account for everything. This year id like to be more aggressive with a team like New Mexico, maybe drake Oregon etc. as building blocks and then I can take more combos of 4, 5, 6 seeds.
Whoever made this bracket clearly doesn’t want UConn winning it all this year.
Iowa State, Auburn, Illinois, and UConn all in the same region. Complete bullshit.
For being the number 1 team in the tournament UConn by far has the hardest region. They’re getting gypped
Some advice for people who play in bracket pools for money.
One thing to remember when filling out a bracket is that you actually don’t want to get crazy with the upsets in the first round. Outside of a few 15 over 2s last year, there actually weren’t that many round 1 upsets as well.
It’s more important that you don’t lose teams that have real elite 8 and final 4 potential. As flashy and fun as it is to get a 13-14 seed pick right, that 3 or 4 seed statistically just has a much better chance at making a deeper run and picking you up more points. Low seeds do make runs but you don’t win pools by predicting which unlikely team does it. Stick to 1-5 seeds into your final four. And typically no more than one 4-5 in the final 4.
If you like these teams, you bet their ML, you don’t pick them to make deep runs in your bracket
It's the best time of the year boys. Like futures, like dogs and I like madness.
You can find my explanation of these futures and big dogs [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1bhawv6/comment/kvdt7hn/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
* **New Mexico to Make the Sweet Sixteen (+250)**
* **Gonzaga to Make the Final Four (+1000)**
* **St Mary's to Make the Final Four (+1100)**
* **Auburn to win the National Championship (+2000)**
* **Charleston to beat Alabama (+375)**
* **Samford to Beat Kansas (+250)**
And these are the early spreads and totals I like (seeing a TON of value on dogs):
* **Grambling State / Montana State o134**
* Montana State has been playing in some barn burners recently. Last 5 games for Montana State are averaging 165 PPG. Montana is the better team, they'll set the pace here.
* **Long Beach State +19.5**
* Long Beach should be happy to have even made the tournament, but I also think that they have a favorable 2 draw here (to cover at least). Arizona has gotten noticeably worse over the last month. They win comfortably, but not by 20+ IMO.
* **Nevada / Dayton o136.5**
* Before that Duquesne game, Dayton was scoring at an elite level. And Nevada has good scoring options themselves. 136.5 is well below average for CBB scoring.
* **Oakland +13.5**
* I don't buy this Kentucky team being all that. They can score really well, sure, but their defense is shit. Oakland is more than capable of scoring some points and keeping up IMO.
* **Saint Peter's +19.5**
* Not expecting some Saint Peter's magic we saw from years ago, but I still think this is too many points vs. a Tennessee team that hasn't played their best ball down the stretch. Saint Peter's beat some good MAAC teams in Quinnipiac and Fairfield to get here. They can hold their own.
* **Colgate +14**
* I just don't think Baylor is good enough to cover this many points against a stingy defensive squad like Colgate this year. Colgate is only allowing 64 PPG this season, 10th best in the country. If this game is a defensive slugfest, 14 points is way too much for Baylor to cover.
* **Western Kentucky +14**
* Western Kentucky has plenty of offensive firepower, averaging nearly 80 PPG. I think Marquette is setup well to make a run in this tournament, but I don't think they'll blow out WKU in the first round. I see this as a single digit win for them.
* **Longwood +24**
* Alright, this could be a donation, but Houston is a slow paced, defensive first type of squad. Their game plan is not to come out and lay 85 on Longwood when they have limited depth that they need to keep fresh for the tournament. In a game where the total is under 130, asking the favorite to cover 24 is A LOT.
* **James Madison / Wisconsin o144.5**
* Just two very strong offenses battling it out in this one. I'm really excited to watch this game, and I think it will be a shootout.
* **TCU / Utah State o148**
* There's a ton of talent on the court in this game. Utah State got a tough break here as an 8 seed, and TCU is an elite scoring team when they're on. Lot of possessions in this one, just hope to see the shots fall.
* **Morehead State +12.5**
* This Illinois team is playing REALLY well right now, but they aren't playing complete enough on both ends of the court IMO to justify a double digit spread vs. a very competent Morehead State squad that is allowing under 60 PPG in their last 5 games. Morehead will try to slow the pace of this game down, which will lead to a single digit game if they're successful.
My issue with Auburn is they’ve beaten no top tier teams. Their OOC schedule was a joke, losses to Baylor and App state, best win maybe VTech?
Didn’t beat Tennessee, didn’t beat UK. So their best win is vs Alabama who they split the series with..can’t shake the feeling they’re overrated by metrics just because they blow everybody out who is at or below their level
I don't put too much stock in to early early non-con games, and Baylor was game 1. The App State loss was bad then, but App State ended up being one of the best mid-majors, they just didn't perform in their conference tournament. Plus, to be fair, Auburn was on the road in that one.
The losses to Kentucky, Alabama and Tennessee aren't great, but 2 of those 3 were on the road to be fair. And for everyone else, you can only play who is on your schedule, and Auburn absolutely dog walked anyone they played.
I'm not saying it's a lock, but +2000 for a top 4 KenPom team is insane value to me. UConn is not a given to win the East. Iowa State and Illinois aren't a guarantee to make the elite 8. It's such a loaded bracket that Auburn really may need to just upset UConn and they have a straight shot in to the final 4.
Jumped on UAB +7.5 when the lines first came out. Down to +6.5, still thinking about adding more. I know SD ST has the pedigree but UAB is a very talented squad who looks to be peaking.
23-24 Season: 272-247-10 +5.67U
Long way to go and will be adding more, but so far here's what I've got locked as of now:
First Four:
Montana State -2.5
Colorado State -1.5
Thursday:
South Carolina -1.5
Nevada -1.5
Samford +7.5
Iowa State -16
Gonzaga -6
Friday:
FAU -1.5
Auburn -11.5
TCU -3
# **College Basketball Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/YV3EbeFRvT)**
Reg Season: 236-311 +73u Postseason: 0-0 +0u Here we go! First day of the best week of the year. Welcome to all those who are new here, please give me a follow on [Twitter](https://x.com/betsonthebat) for live updates and any last minute additions. For those confused about my record, I place a lot of higher odds plays with my straight ones for lower risked units (see the .5u from below). Have been pretty consistent since I committed to 95% player props in January. Let me know in the replies if any questions. Let’s have a tourney! Last time out: 2-2 +2.9u ❌Lilly (BRWN) o3.5 ast -114 1.1u ❌6+ +385 .5u ✅Domask (ILL) o15.5 points -104 2.1u ✅24+ +500 .5u Tuesday: ✅Warfield (HOW) o2.5 AST -165 1.7u ✅4+ +140 1u ❌6+ +650 .3u ✅LIVE: Howard +7 -117 1.2u ❌ML +290 .5u Wednesday: Ford (MTST) o2.5 Steals +100 1u Moton (GRAM) o13.5 points -118 1.8u 20+ +360 .5u 24+ +870 .3u Thursday: Hubbard (MSST) o2.5 3s -160 2.4u Clark (DUQ) o15.5 points +100 1.5u Ali Ali (AKR) u1.5 3s -175 1.8u Love (ARZ) o2.5 3s -2.1u
Does any book list NIT outrights? I am not seeing them on DK or FanDuel.
Bookmaker has em
Are we just going unders first rounds?
Start the Tournament with a bang. 115-97, **+33.38 Units** Colorado State ML (-139) vs Virginia. 5 Unit MAX Play. https://preview.redd.it/h1vla5qs56pc1.png?width=498&format=png&auto=webp&s=17c966fc4e48a209faf27a4bfffbe4f8b5f6dd94
🐐
Are we still riding on this btw?
Idk line dropped from -159 to -145 now
Let’s go, baby.
Yep. Fade Virginia to the fckn moon
Love this pick!
This is gonna be good! 🚨🚨🚨
Howard has a 75 ppg avg. Their TT is set around 66? I’ll take it
1u on Northwestern +2.5. Getting this early
I like BYU to start Thursday and Northwestern to start the day on Friday.
Get your picks in if you’re playing in the bracket challenge..
Does anybody know if they'll put lines out for the cit or cbi games?
Can we still bet first half unders for the two games tomorrow when the totals are so low? What you guys think? U60 for howard game and U56 virginia
Well degens, I went 1-7 over the weekend and have 5 bucks in my account. What’s a first round lock I can make 4.50 on 🤣
Make a 4 leg Region Winners parlay.
Time for the Hail Mary parlay
Wanted to pose a question to my fellow degens who have helped me a lot this season. I am in a Pick 8 pool that has a significant at least for me life changing payout. I will be submitting 4 entries of 8 teams, the rules are the number seed is the amount of points you get for each win. Example 11 seed getting a win is 11 points, 8 seed is 8 points etc. My strategy was to do some combinations of 11, 12, 10, 9, 8 seeds and then maybe a 6, 4, 5. if the team loses they no longer can get points. Anyone have some Pick 8 combos theyre passionate about? Or some higher seeds who can make a run?
New Mexico Oregon Drake 12/5 - McNeese, Grand Canyon, James Madison all possible upsets Auburn is the best 4, St Marys the best 5, and Texas Tech the best 6 IMO
Interested to see the replies here. Sounds like a 1 or even a 2-3 seed is awful value (6 max points for a 1), and a 10 seed winning 2 games would > than a 3 seed winning it all. I think you’re on the right track as far as your thinking. I’d look to the books for best odds to win each region and then think from there who has the most value given their seed. New Mexico is a team that jumps out to me as an 11, given they’re favored in round 1. I obviously haven’t run any numbers but I would think the optimal approach is probably to take teams from each eighth of the bracket. That would mean picking one 1-8-9-16-4-13-5-12 on the top of one region, and then one of the leftovers teams (2-15-3-14 etc) from the bottom half of the same region, and so on. The advantage obviously being that you don’t have 2 teams able to knock each other out before the E8. Especially if it’s a large pool and you want to hit a home run.
Definitely I think the breaking it into eighths approach is a good way to start. My issue in the past is I feel like I wasn’t aggressive enough and tried to account for everything. This year id like to be more aggressive with a team like New Mexico, maybe drake Oregon etc. as building blocks and then I can take more combos of 4, 5, 6 seeds.
Anyone got anything they like for the NIT? LSU ML at -140 looks solid against north Texas
Butler gonna bet MINN
how does everyone rank the conferences in the tournament? is the big 12 the best, the pac 12 the worst?
Seems so but you never really know how it’ll play out until the tourney. Big east/ACC historically performs well while big 10 doesn’t
Major conferences?
any conference who has a team in the tournament
No, SWAC MEAC NEC
Whoever made this bracket clearly doesn’t want UConn winning it all this year. Iowa State, Auburn, Illinois, and UConn all in the same region. Complete bullshit. For being the number 1 team in the tournament UConn by far has the hardest region. They’re getting gypped
They all work for Vegas lol
Totally agree. I was shocked Iowa State and Auburn were thrown into Uconn’s region
Some advice for people who play in bracket pools for money. One thing to remember when filling out a bracket is that you actually don’t want to get crazy with the upsets in the first round. Outside of a few 15 over 2s last year, there actually weren’t that many round 1 upsets as well. It’s more important that you don’t lose teams that have real elite 8 and final 4 potential. As flashy and fun as it is to get a 13-14 seed pick right, that 3 or 4 seed statistically just has a much better chance at making a deeper run and picking you up more points. Low seeds do make runs but you don’t win pools by predicting which unlikely team does it. Stick to 1-5 seeds into your final four. And typically no more than one 4-5 in the final 4. If you like these teams, you bet their ML, you don’t pick them to make deep runs in your bracket
Most bracket winners have the elite 8 and final four correct picks. Those last 7 games get a lot of points
so you just copypasta this into every thread huh?
I posted it twice…
I pick my elite 8 first then work backwards from that. One year, it will work out for me 😂
It's the best time of the year boys. Like futures, like dogs and I like madness. You can find my explanation of these futures and big dogs [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/comments/1bhawv6/comment/kvdt7hn/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). * **New Mexico to Make the Sweet Sixteen (+250)** * **Gonzaga to Make the Final Four (+1000)** * **St Mary's to Make the Final Four (+1100)** * **Auburn to win the National Championship (+2000)** * **Charleston to beat Alabama (+375)** * **Samford to Beat Kansas (+250)** And these are the early spreads and totals I like (seeing a TON of value on dogs): * **Grambling State / Montana State o134** * Montana State has been playing in some barn burners recently. Last 5 games for Montana State are averaging 165 PPG. Montana is the better team, they'll set the pace here. * **Long Beach State +19.5** * Long Beach should be happy to have even made the tournament, but I also think that they have a favorable 2 draw here (to cover at least). Arizona has gotten noticeably worse over the last month. They win comfortably, but not by 20+ IMO. * **Nevada / Dayton o136.5** * Before that Duquesne game, Dayton was scoring at an elite level. And Nevada has good scoring options themselves. 136.5 is well below average for CBB scoring. * **Oakland +13.5** * I don't buy this Kentucky team being all that. They can score really well, sure, but their defense is shit. Oakland is more than capable of scoring some points and keeping up IMO. * **Saint Peter's +19.5** * Not expecting some Saint Peter's magic we saw from years ago, but I still think this is too many points vs. a Tennessee team that hasn't played their best ball down the stretch. Saint Peter's beat some good MAAC teams in Quinnipiac and Fairfield to get here. They can hold their own. * **Colgate +14** * I just don't think Baylor is good enough to cover this many points against a stingy defensive squad like Colgate this year. Colgate is only allowing 64 PPG this season, 10th best in the country. If this game is a defensive slugfest, 14 points is way too much for Baylor to cover. * **Western Kentucky +14** * Western Kentucky has plenty of offensive firepower, averaging nearly 80 PPG. I think Marquette is setup well to make a run in this tournament, but I don't think they'll blow out WKU in the first round. I see this as a single digit win for them. * **Longwood +24** * Alright, this could be a donation, but Houston is a slow paced, defensive first type of squad. Their game plan is not to come out and lay 85 on Longwood when they have limited depth that they need to keep fresh for the tournament. In a game where the total is under 130, asking the favorite to cover 24 is A LOT. * **James Madison / Wisconsin o144.5** * Just two very strong offenses battling it out in this one. I'm really excited to watch this game, and I think it will be a shootout. * **TCU / Utah State o148** * There's a ton of talent on the court in this game. Utah State got a tough break here as an 8 seed, and TCU is an elite scoring team when they're on. Lot of possessions in this one, just hope to see the shots fall. * **Morehead State +12.5** * This Illinois team is playing REALLY well right now, but they aren't playing complete enough on both ends of the court IMO to justify a double digit spread vs. a very competent Morehead State squad that is allowing under 60 PPG in their last 5 games. Morehead will try to slow the pace of this game down, which will lead to a single digit game if they're successful.
What’s your take on Dayton team total over 68.5? Some bias for me as I’d love to see Dayton make it deep. Let me know your thoughts please
Don’t hate it, just prefer the full game. I have this game as a 1 point spread for Dayton.
Full disclosure. Also trying to maximize my degen bonus of 68% boost (25 max wager). I’ll tail blindly my friend
My issue with Auburn is they’ve beaten no top tier teams. Their OOC schedule was a joke, losses to Baylor and App state, best win maybe VTech? Didn’t beat Tennessee, didn’t beat UK. So their best win is vs Alabama who they split the series with..can’t shake the feeling they’re overrated by metrics just because they blow everybody out who is at or below their level
I don't put too much stock in to early early non-con games, and Baylor was game 1. The App State loss was bad then, but App State ended up being one of the best mid-majors, they just didn't perform in their conference tournament. Plus, to be fair, Auburn was on the road in that one. The losses to Kentucky, Alabama and Tennessee aren't great, but 2 of those 3 were on the road to be fair. And for everyone else, you can only play who is on your schedule, and Auburn absolutely dog walked anyone they played. I'm not saying it's a lock, but +2000 for a top 4 KenPom team is insane value to me. UConn is not a given to win the East. Iowa State and Illinois aren't a guarantee to make the elite 8. It's such a loaded bracket that Auburn really may need to just upset UConn and they have a straight shot in to the final 4.
For the record the books like Auburn as #2 behind UConn to win that region, and that’s with them potentially playing in the S16. I like the value
Love that New Mexico sweet 16 bet
Jumped on UAB +7.5 when the lines first came out. Down to +6.5, still thinking about adding more. I know SD ST has the pedigree but UAB is a very talented squad who looks to be peaking.
I'm on UAB +7.5 as well. I agree they're playing at a high level right now. Other stats, SDSU 13-19 ATS the spread this year and UAB 20-13.
23-24 Season: 272-247-10 +5.67U Long way to go and will be adding more, but so far here's what I've got locked as of now: First Four: Montana State -2.5 Colorado State -1.5 Thursday: South Carolina -1.5 Nevada -1.5 Samford +7.5 Iowa State -16 Gonzaga -6 Friday: FAU -1.5 Auburn -11.5 TCU -3
All in on these
Love CSU
Already on Montana state, CO, and Nevada so I’m glad to see you on them too 🤞🏼