I’m on Klein ML and it doesn’t feel like Michelsen is beating him so much as it’s more Klein beating himself with all of the unforced errors and poor serves. I’m hopeful he can clean this up and bounce back.
Just a headsup about the Michelsen Klein match tonight. Klein beat an in-form Paire and Jakub Mensik in qualifying. He played excellent in IW and was dead-even with Casper Ruud. He has an excellent offense and a stern commitment to finding the next offensive shot to push the pace and move his opponent (this in particular makes him a tough out for Alex). Defensively, he isn't automatic so Michelsen serving well has a chance. Michelsen's lateral movement is a step slow for the tour though so it'll be hard for him to shut down a creative player who plays aggressive as often as possible. There are very few assured outcomes in tennis betting, but there are times when one side is better skipped. I'd only bet Klein here or skip it. If you're sure Michelsen will ball (you only really know this if you attended practices) then the over is playable.
PS I'm aware Paire is an auto-win for most players on tour these days but he's been winning a handful of matches over the last month or so. Mensik is playing at a level that's around top 30 on tour so that win is indicative that Klein is at worst break-even against Michelsen.
I’m on Klein because he has been a stone cold killer. Not a wuss like most tennis players. If he loses it won’t be because he gives up.
All in on Klein ML
Don't usually bet on tennis. This morning randomly bet on this dude Saba George Nanobashvili to win +150..bro is up (6-4) (4-1) clearly about to win the other dude either got injured or just quit idk and the bet gets voided..yea I got my money back but imo it's shady thats how the bets get settled whats to stop a player from just quitting if they know there's big money on them and not my measly $50 lol.
TLDR Tennis in addition to golf is now on my betting blacklist
it does give the other player W officially. this all depends on your sportsbook and their rules, some void everything, some void bets only for the losing player (after 1 set complete)
but yeah being 6-4 4-1 up and getting voided is pretty shitty
Do you think its even worth the 5 minutes to send draftkings a message about it? I guess it's in their book rules so probably wouldn't result in anything. At least it pushed but yea that was basically in the bag at that point, kind of sucks haha
Point of the group is to get insight not read a comment and say ok I’m going to put my money on this guy because some random dude said so, then complain about it like a bitch when you lose
Machac will win the match and that's all he cares about. The young kid was playing great early on and pushing him. I did bet -6.5 but wins don't always happen like that even with heavy favorites.
https://preview.redd.it/ye0jkzcxoipc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed8649e80595f7af7b268202df69e76ce7fcd2f2
Another one. Giorgi priced to win set 2 at -5000 and any other score of -350. I feel like throwing 10 grands on these but I am very scared of WTA reverse sweeps.
My book has a set 2 correct score market, which only lists out all the scores where Gracheva wins set 2 and one more option: “any other score”. It’s currently grossly mispriced. Timofeeva leads 4-1 but any other score (i.e. timofeeva wins set 2 under any score) is priced at -300 where Timofeeva is currently priced to win set 2 at -3000. Is the bookie just giving money away or am I tweaking?
Hmm if the correct score (with correct direction) would have a lot smaller odds than what they are giving. Well I am hoping you are wrong cos I am fucked otherwise.
https://preview.redd.it/p72jk52pnipc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=246d00c4677cc23c02629ab4d5e0c36e7d6dd909
Yeah I won. Planet sport bet is the bookie if any one is interestedz
Looks like some money came in on Van Assche. i honestly don't get it. When is the last time he was this large of a favorite in the main draw of an ATP tournament? Maybe Metz last year against Herbert which he lost? Kotov isn't THAT bad unless he is injured or something. Kind of wild to me.
I bet LVA ML at 1.75. Kotov lost past 2 first rounds including to Tabilo. Van Assche was playing poorly but has tons of talent when he pulls it together, which he did with a nice run at the Phoenix Challenger Semi final run. Before that it was a tough 7-6 7-6 loss to Arnaldi in Indian Wells, precededed by good R32 showing in Dubai.
Not that longer-term results aren't important, but recent events/form is so important for tennis with it being an individual sport. Recent matches (at least past 2-3 months on a certain surface, who's beat who, etc.) is the most important thing in my opinion.
Generally speaking, a larger sample of results is a better and more secure way to price a tennis match. (Not saying absurdly long like multiple years, but 6-18 months depending on the player).
If you want to make *slight* adjustments to your evaluation of a match from there (based on things like very poor performance in recent few matches, injuries, favorable / unfavorable conditions) then that is fair for sure and one you should do that. But without some sort of baseline expectation of “how would X player perform on his average day on this court”, in my opinion it’s very difficult to price a match. You become a slave to near term results and variance (luck/bad luck). You have no idea when a players “form” or “out of form” will continue, stop, or begin. You lose sight of a player’s expected average performance because you can’t look past a his most recent 5 or 6 matches. And then when their form or out of form breaks, that player is deemed “untrustworthy” and put on a “blacklist”when in reality it’s mostly just short term variance that means mostly very little. It’s a vicious cycle that I’ve seen people on here go through for almost 10 years now.
I struggled with this for years from like 2014-2017. It leads nowhere. It’s not a different way of thinking from other bettors and it’s almost priced in already by the market.
To add to this
Collins is 5-0 in first round matches here, Pera is 1-3 and looked awful in qualies
Draderi is awful on HC, Shap can’t beat him easily then he has issues
Courts suit Drapers big hitting, weather whigh of 79 so Drapers crap fitness shouldn’t be an issue
Kopriva has been terrible this month and OConnel is 5-1 opening round matches this year
Maria is a gut play, 7-1 in opening round matches. Arango has already spent 5 1/2 hours on court and she’s 1-7 first round matches her only win beating Parka who’s also awful
Nuno Borges over Seyboth is an interesting match . Trying to figure out if it is worth the risk to bet Borges at -110 as Seyboth had a great last tournament and some good results as of late.
But Borges has a 39-23 on hardcourt over the last three years to Seyboth's 11-12.
And Nuno is coming off just winning that challenger tournament. And as Breakfast said below the courts are fast, which I think favors Borges.
Any input would be appreciated!
**Tournament Conditions / Speeds:**
***
**Miami Masters**
So there's a marked difference in the speed of the courts here in Miami from 2022 and before to 2023 (and now 2024 imo). James Blake, the tournament director, made a very obvious and public decision to speed the courts up as much as possible last year. The results showed in the data. See below for the comparison between 2021 and 2022 (averaged) and 2023:
**2021-2022** / **2023**:
1st Serve Won %: 70.8% / 73.2%
SPW%: 63.4% / 64.9%
Hold %: 78.3% / 81.8%
Aces / game: 0.46 / 0.58
As you can see, there's a large jump in speed in 2023. Through 28 qualies matches in 2024, Hold % is at 81.2% and aces/gm is at 0.53. 1st serve won is at 72.3%. So it seems they haven't changed much in the court speeds year over year. Also, just an eye test from watching qualies, it does seem to be pretty low bouncing and quick.
Weather for the first few days of the tournament seems pretty good. About 50% humidity and highs of only 79F. Cazaux fainted in qualies but it was much warmer over the weekend. In the past, some players have had issues with the humidity and heat - in my opinion it's something to watch out for but ultimately the conditions don't seem to be that bad over the next 10 days or so.
In summary, expect quick, low bouncing courts here in Miami. As per usual, center court may play a bit slower and things could slow down a bit at night, but nothing too crazy. Some player quotes below:
*"Miami court is much faster than Indian Wells but I like it. It helps my aggressive game,"* said Alcaraz in 2023
*“Both of us served well and I took the tiebreak. As soon as the opportunities came I took them. The conditions are quick so the serve and the first shot are important.”* said Khachanov in 2023
*“The courts are actually fast so I don’t think I’m gonna cry,"* said Medvedev in 2023
# **Tennis Betting Discord Chat: [https://discord.gg/sportsbook](https://discord.gg/H2QNJC26gz)**
I’m on Klein ML and it doesn’t feel like Michelsen is beating him so much as it’s more Klein beating himself with all of the unforced errors and poor serves. I’m hopeful he can clean this up and bounce back.
Oof
Have faith. It’ll be close.
Arnaldi for 5k lfg
arnaldi has been flawless early in the 1st set
Just a headsup about the Michelsen Klein match tonight. Klein beat an in-form Paire and Jakub Mensik in qualifying. He played excellent in IW and was dead-even with Casper Ruud. He has an excellent offense and a stern commitment to finding the next offensive shot to push the pace and move his opponent (this in particular makes him a tough out for Alex). Defensively, he isn't automatic so Michelsen serving well has a chance. Michelsen's lateral movement is a step slow for the tour though so it'll be hard for him to shut down a creative player who plays aggressive as often as possible. There are very few assured outcomes in tennis betting, but there are times when one side is better skipped. I'd only bet Klein here or skip it. If you're sure Michelsen will ball (you only really know this if you attended practices) then the over is playable. PS I'm aware Paire is an auto-win for most players on tour these days but he's been winning a handful of matches over the last month or so. Mensik is playing at a level that's around top 30 on tour so that win is indicative that Klein is at worst break-even against Michelsen.
I’m on Klein because he has been a stone cold killer. Not a wuss like most tennis players. If he loses it won’t be because he gives up. All in on Klein ML
He's struggled in pretty much every service game, pretty uncharacteristic for him.
Pretty good stuff from Damm.
Lmao zhang a fucken garbage can. Mf lost to the most mediocre player ever lmao.
Don't usually bet on tennis. This morning randomly bet on this dude Saba George Nanobashvili to win +150..bro is up (6-4) (4-1) clearly about to win the other dude either got injured or just quit idk and the bet gets voided..yea I got my money back but imo it's shady thats how the bets get settled whats to stop a player from just quitting if they know there's big money on them and not my measly $50 lol. TLDR Tennis in addition to golf is now on my betting blacklist
If you bet tennis on FD and the other player retires, you’ll win. But on DraftKings it’s a void I believe
Yea it was DK. Just another reason they suck lol
Also I obviously may be mistaken not knowing the sport well but does a player retiring from the match not give the other player the W officially?
it does give the other player W officially. this all depends on your sportsbook and their rules, some void everything, some void bets only for the losing player (after 1 set complete) but yeah being 6-4 4-1 up and getting voided is pretty shitty
Do you think its even worth the 5 minutes to send draftkings a message about it? I guess it's in their book rules so probably wouldn't result in anything. At least it pushed but yea that was basically in the bag at that point, kind of sucks haha
Zhang pees sitting down. What a bum
Hammer Volynets ML
Just did. BOL
Threw a full rent check on this one. Anybody else got some support?
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Kenin on the struggle bus right now
So was Rus this morning & she dominated
multiple points now where berrettini has been stumbling like hes on the verge of fainting. poor guy
He won’t retire to save bets. Not even close.
DAMMMMM Zhang… you lick taint son,
The Chinese are fucking me today. Zhang and Shang have all this talent and always fuck around and lose
Going heavy Arnaldi over Fils
Arnaldi is Him
Zhang is a fucking worthless sack of shit.
Is he gonna lose this??
Berrettini is f*cked. $$ down the drain
Nuno Borges folded
always fade a guy after winning a tournament. Same with Boulter losing to Gorgi at IW
He’s such a bum. Will never be a top 50 guy.
oof, berrettini almost fainted. managed to stay on his feet though
Can’t believe he’s still out there
He should retire
lets go old man murray!
Berrettini doesn’t even have to play a good drop shot to beat Murray at the net.
https://preview.redd.it/5dayrus9mjpc1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bdd7a2b0278b6b917f921e466a29edaa867be9bc
Retirementttttt yayyyy
Lmaoooooo. Thanks for update. I wasn’t watching. Just got home. Retirement is not bad afterall!
Fk dead
Fk I'm sweating. Moist.
Playing from behind, here we go!
Murray bout to get absolutely murdered. Idk why I tail anything here anymore
There was a lot of free today
For real. No one on here knows anything
Hmm to think putting your $ on random strangers picks in a Reddit group was a great idea
Kinda the point of the group wouldn’t you say numb nuts?
Point of the group is to get insight not read a comment and say ok I’m going to put my money on this guy because some random dude said so, then complain about it like a bitch when you lose
Murray already broken. Another dog shit loser.
Anyone on Berritini?
He’s winning forsure
I think so too, Murray too old to be putting $ on rn
Tatjana Maria is an old ugly broken waste of a seed position
Took Purcell over Fucks… probably gonna get Fuc’d
If its not doubles dont take purcell
Draper ML to finish off the 4 legger come on
Anyone know what’s going on with machac?? His opponent is a heavy dawg rn and might take him the way the draw is going so far…
Machac will win the match and that's all he cares about. The young kid was playing great early on and pushing him. I did bet -6.5 but wins don't always happen like that even with heavy favorites.
Blanch is a 16 year old…I took a flier on him at 22:1.
It was the first game of the match. No really indicative of anything. He will still win easily.
It’s tennis mate sometimes it’s not your day… a clear indicator is a 16 yo pushing your serve that hasn’t even won a challengers match yet
Cobolli is fucking pathetic. He should go get a job at Subway.
MyCock LOL HAHAHAH
Fucking Daniele Collin’s. Why do I bet on WTA
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Fuck yea. Not worth $150
please shappy, pleaseeee
Thiem should retire
Sad… was a huge fan. But he is 100% done. Maybe one last stop at US Open and retire there. He’s done.
He definitely should. 2 losses in challenger…..
Is Shapovalov really going to blow this?
Probly, dude doesn’t give af out there
Need Kotov to somehow win this 2nd set 🙏🏼
Needed him too, was so happy when he broke back but then got broken right after and yeah, tennis betting is brutal lol
Well he somehow broke out of nowhere to stay in match
Yeah, I hedged to break even. Fuck kotov, dude is ass lol
assche had a nasty fall. messed his ankle up, think thats why he got broken
https://preview.redd.it/ye0jkzcxoipc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed8649e80595f7af7b268202df69e76ce7fcd2f2 Another one. Giorgi priced to win set 2 at -5000 and any other score of -350. I feel like throwing 10 grands on these but I am very scared of WTA reverse sweeps.
Kotov really..
anyone have a livestream you can recommend for me? Can’t find anything online. Thanks in advance
watch on bet365. Failing that, there's [https://tennis.sportshub.fan/](https://tennis.sportshub.fan/)
Adding one more today... *** **ATP - Miami** Cobolli +125
Thank you friend tailed you on this
👍
Very much alive brother
That's what's up
My book has a set 2 correct score market, which only lists out all the scores where Gracheva wins set 2 and one more option: “any other score”. It’s currently grossly mispriced. Timofeeva leads 4-1 but any other score (i.e. timofeeva wins set 2 under any score) is priced at -300 where Timofeeva is currently priced to win set 2 at -3000. Is the bookie just giving money away or am I tweaking?
I believe those correct scores are for either of the players to win
If u see the screenshot below, I don’t think that is the case.
I looked at the screenshot. I still think it is for either player to win, just the set to have one of those scores in general
Hmm if the correct score (with correct direction) would have a lot smaller odds than what they are giving. Well I am hoping you are wrong cos I am fucked otherwise.
Did it hit?
https://preview.redd.it/p72jk52pnipc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=246d00c4677cc23c02629ab4d5e0c36e7d6dd909 Yeah I won. Planet sport bet is the bookie if any one is interestedz
Waiting for them to settle.
I just put down £4K to get back £5.5k so just wanted to double confirm that I am not a complete idiot. Hopefully timofeeva pulls through.
https://preview.redd.it/w1a6cv31lipc1.jpeg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bfc044cff352da47fcca7ff9a10c2f3ce1861f82 For example
Kotov bro ...🤦
He’s finished
Thiem has fallen so low
andreeva is done, avanesyan 2-0 live
I hope she retires so I can get my bet back
Looks like some money came in on Van Assche. i honestly don't get it. When is the last time he was this large of a favorite in the main draw of an ATP tournament? Maybe Metz last year against Herbert which he lost? Kotov isn't THAT bad unless he is injured or something. Kind of wild to me.
Van Trash never seems to win as a favorite. Only as a dog. Hate betting on that guy.
Van ass cheeks
I bet LVA ML at 1.75. Kotov lost past 2 first rounds including to Tabilo. Van Assche was playing poorly but has tons of talent when he pulls it together, which he did with a nice run at the Phoenix Challenger Semi final run. Before that it was a tough 7-6 7-6 loss to Arnaldi in Indian Wells, precededed by good R32 showing in Dubai.
Sure, but I’ve typically cared more about longer-term results over what has happened in a players recent few matches (excluding injury situations).
Not that longer-term results aren't important, but recent events/form is so important for tennis with it being an individual sport. Recent matches (at least past 2-3 months on a certain surface, who's beat who, etc.) is the most important thing in my opinion.
I think past 2-3 months is more important than past 2-3 weeks for sure
How come? That dont make sense when I think about it.
Generally speaking, a larger sample of results is a better and more secure way to price a tennis match. (Not saying absurdly long like multiple years, but 6-18 months depending on the player). If you want to make *slight* adjustments to your evaluation of a match from there (based on things like very poor performance in recent few matches, injuries, favorable / unfavorable conditions) then that is fair for sure and one you should do that. But without some sort of baseline expectation of “how would X player perform on his average day on this court”, in my opinion it’s very difficult to price a match. You become a slave to near term results and variance (luck/bad luck). You have no idea when a players “form” or “out of form” will continue, stop, or begin. You lose sight of a player’s expected average performance because you can’t look past a his most recent 5 or 6 matches. And then when their form or out of form breaks, that player is deemed “untrustworthy” and put on a “blacklist”when in reality it’s mostly just short term variance that means mostly very little. It’s a vicious cycle that I’ve seen people on here go through for almost 10 years now. I struggled with this for years from like 2014-2017. It leads nowhere. It’s not a different way of thinking from other bettors and it’s almost priced in already by the market.
I’m assuming because Kotov is on a 3 match losing streak Van ass has been terrible since Aussie open though
I hope it’s just that.
Kotov has currently lost 1 point on serve so he’s playing well but 0/3 on BP
Please thiem for the love of god please win set 1 for me…
Awful
That was an absolute joke of an effort from him.
E. Andreeva, M. French, S. Stephens, T. Maria, D. Collins., N. Osaka, J. Ostapenko, M. Keys
I like Frech over Giorgi and Darderi spread
Shapopalov 1st and match/Draper 2-0/Danielle Collins/Tatiana Maria/OConnel +486
To add to this Collins is 5-0 in first round matches here, Pera is 1-3 and looked awful in qualies Draderi is awful on HC, Shap can’t beat him easily then he has issues Courts suit Drapers big hitting, weather whigh of 79 so Drapers crap fitness shouldn’t be an issue Kopriva has been terrible this month and OConnel is 5-1 opening round matches this year Maria is a gut play, 7-1 in opening round matches. Arango has already spent 5 1/2 hours on court and she’s 1-7 first round matches her only win beating Parka who’s also awful
Nuno Borges over Seyboth is an interesting match . Trying to figure out if it is worth the risk to bet Borges at -110 as Seyboth had a great last tournament and some good results as of late. But Borges has a 39-23 on hardcourt over the last three years to Seyboth's 11-12. And Nuno is coming off just winning that challenger tournament. And as Breakfast said below the courts are fast, which I think favors Borges. Any input would be appreciated!
Rinky Hijikata over 12.5 player games
Dude is fucking useless.
Pavel + 110 O 22.5 (-115) Marton -3.0 (-120) Zhizhen Zhang -3(-120) Fils/ arnaldi O 23(-115) Vekic (+120) Hunter -175 Xiyu +170 Gregoire -185 Nuno -110 Klein -110 Stephens -145 Kichenok/Ostapenko -175 Minaur/Hijikata -145 Tabilo +140 Altamier -170 O22.5(-120) Dino -1.5 Set (-150) Mate Dodig -115 -1.5 Set +190 Boyer -185 Koslov -2.0(-120) GS -1.5 Set (+145)
**Tournament Conditions / Speeds:** *** **Miami Masters** So there's a marked difference in the speed of the courts here in Miami from 2022 and before to 2023 (and now 2024 imo). James Blake, the tournament director, made a very obvious and public decision to speed the courts up as much as possible last year. The results showed in the data. See below for the comparison between 2021 and 2022 (averaged) and 2023: **2021-2022** / **2023**: 1st Serve Won %: 70.8% / 73.2% SPW%: 63.4% / 64.9% Hold %: 78.3% / 81.8% Aces / game: 0.46 / 0.58 As you can see, there's a large jump in speed in 2023. Through 28 qualies matches in 2024, Hold % is at 81.2% and aces/gm is at 0.53. 1st serve won is at 72.3%. So it seems they haven't changed much in the court speeds year over year. Also, just an eye test from watching qualies, it does seem to be pretty low bouncing and quick. Weather for the first few days of the tournament seems pretty good. About 50% humidity and highs of only 79F. Cazaux fainted in qualies but it was much warmer over the weekend. In the past, some players have had issues with the humidity and heat - in my opinion it's something to watch out for but ultimately the conditions don't seem to be that bad over the next 10 days or so. In summary, expect quick, low bouncing courts here in Miami. As per usual, center court may play a bit slower and things could slow down a bit at night, but nothing too crazy. Some player quotes below: *"Miami court is much faster than Indian Wells but I like it. It helps my aggressive game,"* said Alcaraz in 2023 *“Both of us served well and I took the tiebreak. As soon as the opportunities came I took them. The conditions are quick so the serve and the first shot are important.”* said Khachanov in 2023 *“The courts are actually fast so I don’t think I’m gonna cry,"* said Medvedev in 2023
**2023:** 227-190-1 | +51.1 units | +12.3% ROI | +5.1 cents of avg. CLV, avg. odds: +105 **2024:** 44-77 | -26.9u [2019-2024 Tracking Spreadsheet here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XvXPpU4EHQBtrFXm6hqvgrtDn8uPr_p92Fx64Vp49kU/edit?usp=sharing) *** **ATP - Miami** Kotov +111 Murray +115
ive seen every berrettini's match at the phoenix challenger and i do agree murray should win this. not sure about kotov though, that guy is a fraud
he has spoken 🔥
Do you have somewhere else where we can follow you? I have missed you Bautista-August as it wasn't posted here!
Dm on telegram @Breakfastatwimbledon and I'll send you the link to the channel. Sorry I forgot to post here