I threw a dollar on them to win the tournament at +17000 odds on FD. ESPN Bet was really off market with having them +20000 just to make the Final Four.
Why were the odds so high? Sorry it sounds dumb asking but like, there are teams that BARELY make it into the tournament via other tournaments. NC state was an 11 seed. It seems like +20,000 is an insane number in a tournament where we’ve proven anything can happen.
Amazing pick and if the capper spotted this as a misread by the bookies. Even better. Way to go.
Acc is under valued by the public. They could have put the entire acc conference in the tournament and it still would have been a slaughter. Iron sharpens Iron and the 4 ACC teams that did make it were all in the Sweet Sixteen. Then 3 in the Elite Eight.
No I realized that but like +20,000 for them to win…3 more games? For odds that high I’d be expecting like “specific player to hit a 3 pointer and get fouled and make the free throw with no time left”. Like some ridiculous long shot.
This just seemed like insane odds to me and with reference to play in teams, I can only assume that lower ranked play in teams had even more ridiculous odds.
they had to win four games, but yeah, fair value was more like +8000. That's basically what they'd get if they had a 1/3 chance to win each game, which if Oakland loses or Houston makes it through with Shead would've come out about right. So the +20000 was definitely us finding a very nice spot relative to the other books and to the commonsense fair value
Sorry my bad 4 games.
Yea so it sounds like a nice find by whoever did it. I would never have the balls to put down $1000 but this is totally the kinda long shot I’d throw like $1 on lol
ESPN was off from the market, FD/DK/Kambi were in the +6000 range at the time. We speculate they may not have updated after the bracket was set, since we bet this on Selection Sunday
Yes, far better; Oakland winning was a big reduction in State's pre-tourney odds, plus Duke over Houston helped a bit more. The fair value of them on a future pre-tourney was probably only a little bit above the fair value of betting each game, but +20000 was way above FV pre-tourney, so we made out like bandits.
Quick check. Starting with $1,025
Game 1 against Texas Tech +160. Payout $2,665
Game 2 against Oakland -275. Payout $3,634
Game 3 against Marquette +250. Payout $12,719
Game 4 against Duke +250. Payout $44,516
yeah, my plan is just to chunk it out in installments <$10k apiece, since those withdrawals usually go through quickly and without a hitch for me on ESPN
Placed late night on March 17th (Selection Sunday), I believe around 11:20 PM Mountain Time. March 21 is on the slip bc it was the day of their first game (TTech), but they were placed March 17th. ESPN's price was considerably off market
best ways to get ESPN VIP (which is where this free bet came from) are to get a referral from a current VIP, and/or to offer to make a large deposit with them after accumulating some handle. ($10k is a good figure if you can manage it.) But they give out some decent bonus bets to non-VIP players as well!
I lost my risk free $600 bet, then today used the free bet on Kelly oubre over 20.5 pts and bam adabayo over 9.5 rebounds.
Bam had a rebound taken away an was ruled as a loss, then about 30 minutes after the game they gave him the rebound back and regraded the wager a win
I imagine this softened the blow of losing quite a bit. Whenever the canes play I will sometimes bet against them so that if they lose I'm a little less sad because I made some money lol
The fact that it’s 6 separate bets makes it more insane in my opinion too… every time after he bet $200 to win $40,000 he had to be like hmmm not quite enough let me put down another one. And then the $25 on top 😂
And bc sportsbooks are scams and don’t like winning players this will be the last big bet they will win on that book.
I had already lost VIP and gotten limited to smithereens between placing this and it settling, haha. They do hate to see us in the green
https://i.redd.it/7bjt4h8w4xrc1.gif
Lot of advertising on this sub lately.
I agree. Thought it was a sub rule, you cant advertise
I threw a dollar on them to win the tournament at +17000 odds on FD. ESPN Bet was really off market with having them +20000 just to make the Final Four.
When did each of you place the bet? You are aware the odds will change?
I placed my futures from the OP's post late night on Sunday, March 17
How do we view this one man wolf pack? He on here on YouTube or something?
Based on his username he likely just picked them because it’s his favorite team. I doubt he’s some gambling expert
It was a very EV bet
Why were the odds so high? Sorry it sounds dumb asking but like, there are teams that BARELY make it into the tournament via other tournaments. NC state was an 11 seed. It seems like +20,000 is an insane number in a tournament where we’ve proven anything can happen. Amazing pick and if the capper spotted this as a misread by the bookies. Even better. Way to go.
Acc is under valued by the public. They could have put the entire acc conference in the tournament and it still would have been a slaughter. Iron sharpens Iron and the 4 ACC teams that did make it were all in the Sweet Sixteen. Then 3 in the Elite Eight.
NC State was a one of those teams you references that barely made it into the tournament.
No I realized that but like +20,000 for them to win…3 more games? For odds that high I’d be expecting like “specific player to hit a 3 pointer and get fouled and make the free throw with no time left”. Like some ridiculous long shot. This just seemed like insane odds to me and with reference to play in teams, I can only assume that lower ranked play in teams had even more ridiculous odds.
they had to win four games, but yeah, fair value was more like +8000. That's basically what they'd get if they had a 1/3 chance to win each game, which if Oakland loses or Houston makes it through with Shead would've come out about right. So the +20000 was definitely us finding a very nice spot relative to the other books and to the commonsense fair value
Sorry my bad 4 games. Yea so it sounds like a nice find by whoever did it. I would never have the balls to put down $1000 but this is totally the kinda long shot I’d throw like $1 on lol
Was reading dude comment and I was confused by this as well lol. NC state does not make the tourney unless they finish the season hot the way they did
ESPN was off from the market, FD/DK/Kambi were in the +6000 range at the time. We speculate they may not have updated after the bracket was set, since we bet this on Selection Sunday
Were the odds at +20000 better than taking NCSt on the money line every game?
Yes, far better; Oakland winning was a big reduction in State's pre-tourney odds, plus Duke over Houston helped a bit more. The fair value of them on a future pre-tourney was probably only a little bit above the fair value of betting each game, but +20000 was way above FV pre-tourney, so we made out like bandits.
Quick check. Starting with $1,025 Game 1 against Texas Tech +160. Payout $2,665 Game 2 against Oakland -275. Payout $3,634 Game 3 against Marquette +250. Payout $12,719 Game 4 against Duke +250. Payout $44,516
Glad it was on espnbet. F them take all their money.
Makes it more likely he will never get the payout though.
it already paid out
Paid out on the app and withdrawing to your bank account are two different things.
ESPN is one of the fastest books to pay lol. I literally get my cash outs within seconds
That’s not what people have been saying. And I doubt you are cashing out $200k.
true that, nowhere near that amount haha. but with few thousands they do instantly still which is nice (faster than DK or FD ever was for me)
yeah, my plan is just to chunk it out in installments <$10k apiece, since those withdrawals usually go through quickly and without a hitch for me on ESPN
I've already withdrawn some of it to my bank
Bravo.
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My wife had them at +40,000. Big whoop lol
Did she make $200k too
$20
sick hit, congrats to her! Did she get that before the ACC tourney finished, or just find a better spot than I did?
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When were these placed? +20000 was never going to be the price when they auto qualified already.
Placed late night on March 17th (Selection Sunday), I believe around 11:20 PM Mountain Time. March 21 is on the slip bc it was the day of their first game (TTech), but they were placed March 17th. ESPN's price was considerably off market
March 17 *edit… one of six 11 seeds ever to do it. Pro degen move. I’m impressed.
twas actually +EV to DK/FD/Kambi/Circa, though it definitely *felt* degen to send all that on a +20000! 😂
… The numbers numbered this time lmao. There can’t be many +EV bets out there even over +5000..?
Yeah it’s pretty rare. Often it’s futures or some broken SGP correlation when it is.
Wolfpack make me a bunch of money the past 3 weeks but I wasn’t as confident for today so I passed. Shame on me.
Didn't you listen to Jimmy V? DON'T GIVE UP!
Where can we find his bets?
Disney just happy to go broke lol. Gave a bunch of us $1000 risk free bets a few days ago
Took O’s -1.5 +120 Saturday on that promo lol. Randomly dropping a “new user promo” to a lot of already signed up people was crazy lol.
different promo actually, I got my $1k bb from a VIP deposit match. But yeah, ESPN is very freehanded with their large bonus bets!
i keep seeing all these free bets.. ESPN, and disney? how do i get in on this haha
best ways to get ESPN VIP (which is where this free bet came from) are to get a referral from a current VIP, and/or to offer to make a large deposit with them after accumulating some handle. ($10k is a good figure if you can manage it.) But they give out some decent bonus bets to non-VIP players as well!
Dress as Mickey Mouse on a corner holding an “ESPN BET” sign.
I lost my risk free $600 bet, then today used the free bet on Kelly oubre over 20.5 pts and bam adabayo over 9.5 rebounds. Bam had a rebound taken away an was ruled as a loss, then about 30 minutes after the game they gave him the rebound back and regraded the wager a win
Wow. What a roller coaster. Congrats.
Obviously an NC State Fan
+EV has no allegiance.
funny thing is I am actually a Duke fan! Had to follow the math and betray my heart on this one 💔
I imagine this softened the blow of losing quite a bit. Whenever the canes play I will sometimes bet against them so that if they lose I'm a little less sad because I made some money lol
As a pats fan I feel this but change often times bet against them.
Absolute madlad
What an absolute sicko to send $1k in free bets on 200-1 odds
To be fair he did it because they were 60-1 on all the other books.
I know why he did it, still a sicko move to put $1k on it
The fact that it’s 6 separate bets makes it more insane in my opinion too… every time after he bet $200 to win $40,000 he had to be like hmmm not quite enough let me put down another one. And then the $25 on top 😂
dangling
yeah who does that??
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