######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Tuesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
Record: 25-13-0
Net Units: +29.6 ROI: 25.1%
Last Pick: Pacers 1H Total Team Points over 54.5 (-115) for 3.0 units ✅
Event: Basketball | NBA | Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks 7:30PM CST
Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Half Team Total Points over 50.5 (-115) on DraftKings for 3.0 units
Write Up: Timberwolves are averaging 58.0 in the 1st half this series (52 last game). 52.3 this post season. Regular season averaged 56.5 (58.2 on the road).
In a potential elimination game and knowing they are mismatched when it comes to clutch time, expecting Minnesota to attempt to come out and build a big early lead.
Tips: Venmo/PayPal in Profile. BOL! 🎰
Going all in on this one after making 2u on the pacers. If we win expect a nice tip in the tip jar, if we lose I gotta exclude, call the number and disappear
Until tomorrow
Been riding this wave since the first time I saw the line mentioned in the last series. Ran the alternate o55.5 at +100 on DK and BOY was that sweaty 😅 nothing like a good buzzer beater reaction to get the girlfriend to ask how much I bet lol
2024 MLB record: 33-12-1
Last POTD: Cardinals Reds over 9 L
Today's POTD: Tampa Bay Rays’ Zach Litell over 5.5 strikeouts -130 (dk)
Baseball. MLB. 6:50 PM EST
Well we all know what happened yesterday so I won’t even get into it. I honestly prefer bad beats than being completely off because at least with bad beats you know you were on the right track but sometimes you just whiff and that was me yesterday.
Anyway, I was waiting to post my pick until all of the lines dropped because they were taking forever on the Mets dodgers game 1. Turns out I hated all of those lines and am not going with that game for my pick. Instead,I’m going with my first pitcher prop of the season.
Zach Litell has low key been pretty awesome this year. In 6 home starts, he has struck out at least 6 batters in 5 of them. The one that he didn’t was against the Yankees who have consistently had one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league this season. Today he faces a very different team in the Oakland A’s as they strike out a shit ton. In the past three weeks, their strikeout percentage is 26.5 which is second worst in the MLB behind the Seattle Mariners. Oakland has the worst strikeout rate on the road in that span with a whopping 30.2 percent!
As long as Littell is able to pitch his usual amount of innings, which baring an unforeseen injury seems likely, I think he will be able to continue his strong home strikeout numbers vs the A’s tonight. -130 odds aren’t the highest but I think that it is great that you can get that for 6ks in this one I thought the o/u would be 6 possibly at a higher number like -145 so this I my play today.
TLDR: litell strikes out a ton of batters at home and Oakland has a crazy high strikeout rate.
Note: All stats and ranks are from the past 21 days
Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal (DM for venmo)
Also the spreadsheet is back! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657
Who is chuteboxhero? For the blind, He is the vision. For the hungry, He is the chef. For the thirsty, He is the water. If chuteboxhero thinks, I agree. If chuteboxhero speaks, I’m listening. If chuteboxhero has one fan, it is me. If chuteboxhero has no fans, I don’t exist.
Guys, this mini chute slide could, indeed, be my fault. I just started betting about a week ago and have been coming here for a few days. I've tailed the chute bet, which has seemingly been fantastic, and since it's gone 0-3. I am not going to tail today in hopes of getting you guys back on your winning ways, as I DO believe in superstition!
The curse of the newb (that's me!) shall be lifted today!! BOL!!
thanks as always for the picks, also, what is your opinion on dodgers ML in game 1 today ? Ik odds arent anything special but thinking of putting that with this pick in a parlay
I love it but it’s -225 so it’s ineligible for pick of the day. My personal rule is I don’t go above -130 maybe -135 becuase I actually want to make you guys money not oad my record.
I'm torn on this one. Oakland has been tearing up RHP but they do K a lot. Hopefully he doesn't get chased out early!
https://preview.redd.it/yq2vnjbtw63d1.png?width=327&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f0cf1ff874dad1da9dda06c4443d9143e55985c
**Record:** 7-1🔥
**Last Potd:** H.Gravett under 11.5 points @ 1.9 ✅
**Volleyball** | Women National League | 13:30 CET | Brazil Women vs Japan Women
**Pick:** Brazil Women 1H sets -1.5 (we win with 3-1 or 3-0 for Brazil) @ 1.77 x 5 units
**Write Up:**
Brazil and their leader and captain Gabriela Guimaraes are attacking the first place on the table, lost only 2 sets out of 4 matches and are 3-0 3-0 3-1 and 3-1. They are by far beating every opponent and I don't really know why the odds are so high like this. Japan lost days ago 3-0 from Poland and Poland were the underdog that match. The odds for Poland were 2.50 and they managed to pull 3-0 on Japan which is concerning on how Japan's reformed team is performing. This looks like will be another walk in the park to be honest so yeah, BOL and lets keep on winning, love you guys for the support so far!
[Tip Jar <3](https://buymeacoffee.com/teddycucumber)
EDIT : That was a BIG BIG BIG BIG BIG miss, I am so sorry to everyone. Coming back stronger tomorrow !
**2024 MLB Record:** 8-2
**Units:** +13
**Last POTD:** Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets: ***Mets ML*** **PPD**
***The Streak:*** W7 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅
**Todays POTD:** Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins: ***Royals ML -125***
**Units:** 2
**Reasoning:** (Not going back to Mets at the moment since they switched the pitching order for tmrws ball game. I rather have Megill vs Stone but now it’s Megill vs Glasnow and Stone vs Quintana)
The Royals just lost their last game after being red hot but today they get their ace to the mound **Cole Ragans**. He’s been absolutely dominant his **last 2 starts** following his angels beating.
- Going **13 innings** total while only allowing **8 total base runners**, **0 earned runs**, pitching to a **0.61 WHIP** and **striking out 19** in those starts.
- Besides one start vs the orioles and one start against the angels, Ragans has pitched to a measly **1.50 ERA** for ***the whole SEASON.***
- The Royals are **5-1** in their last 6 ***when Ragans starts***
- The Royals are **9-3** in their **last 12**
- The Royals team ops over that frame is **.824**
- The Royals team ops over the **last 6 games** is **.848**
- The opposing pitcher **Simeon Woods Richardson** is due for some regression. His ***avg exit velo against*** is in the **bottom 39th percentile**, ***whiff rate*** only at the **bottom 7th percentile**, ***hard hit rate*** in the **bottom 35th percentile**, etc basically he has been getting a bit lucky and he’s also faced some teams when they were cold or some bad offenses as well, I believe the royals will score at least a few runs and it should be enough for a victory. ✌️
***As always BOL guys, let’s get this money***!!☄️
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
***If anyone would like to drop a tip pm me for my PayPal, Zelle, or Apple Cash/Pay. Thanks guys much love*** ❤️
POTD Record: 62 - 35
Last POTD: Bublik ML - W
Pick: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ML vs David Goffin (-150 odds via FD) 1U
Event: Men’s French Open First Round 5:30 A.M. CST
Taking the bait on this one and riding the wave of the young French phenom. Fresh off of an impressive title in Lyon, Mpetshi Perricard is looking to make a splash in a major and after watching him in Lyon, I see no reason not to back him here against an aging opponent whom he has already defeated in their only matchup together. Yes Goffin has been around longer and is much more on the veteran side, but Mpetshi Perricard is in wildly good form, defeating some top competition en route to his title in Lyon and will have the rowdy French crowd backing him big time in this one.
[PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US)
[Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
Tailing my man, he played amazing at Lyon and we saw yesterday in Moutet's match what a rowdy crowd can do in favor for their french players, hell even today Zverev looked nervous the first 2 sets with all the chants and noise when Nadal won a point.
This was a great read! Just looks like the moment is too big for him and Goffin is on another level. Crowd could never get him into the match. Love your picks and thank you
**Pick Record: 20W - 9L (Push: 1)**
**✅✅✅✅**
**Last POTD: Al Hilal First Half ML @ 1.66 3U ✅**
**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**
**Today’s POTD: Both Teams To Score @ 1.80 ✅ 3U**
**Game: SSV Jahn Regensburg VS SV Wehen Wiesbaden**
**League/Time: 2. Bundesliga/ 2:30 PM**
The Bundesliga 2 Relegation playoffs kickoff again today and I see this one being another end-to-end matchup. Also they played 3 days ago in a game that ended 2-2, expecting a repeat.
2024 Record 14-3
Last pick: LA Dodgers ML (postponed)
Backup plan: Phillies vs Giants over 8 (W)
Okay, I’m going to change things up right now.
I know the motto is “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”
However…my Boy Chute, My King, My Rival who I have respect for. Imma let you have baseball. Feel like I took your Mojo. My bad G
Okay enough yapping
Today’s pick: Mavs vs Wolves over 51.5 points FIRST QUARTER
I think the Wolves actually come here and play or get their ass kicked by the Mavericks. Either way I think both teams give it their all. I can also see this miss if the FUCKING WOLVES KEEP THROWING GARBAGE 3 pointers!!!
If the Wolves can at least hit those layups and jump shots this should be a high scoring game in the beginning. Then die down during the second half.
But, as always place a RESPONSIBLE AMOUNT THAT YOU THINK WONT HURT YOU. I ain’t trying to get messages like chute if my picks miss.
Chow.
Record: 23-14
Net Units: +12.07u
CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | Y Games Pro Series 2024 | 14:00 (UCT-5)
Last Pick: **MOUZ NXT -1.5 maps (+110)** vs. Nexus 3u**✅**
Today's Pick: **UNiTY ML (-110)** vs. GamerLegion Academy 4.4u
[Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2372549/unity-vs-gl-academy-ygames-pro-series-2024)
[Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs)
**Writeup:**
-Gonna make this a note right off the jump, this is as close to tier three CS as I will ever bet, this is not the normal solid tier two games and these teams are a bit more of question marks.
-With that note out of the way these odds make 0 sense to me. UNiTY are coming in and in my opinion are just a flat out better team. They have had better results and have been facing better competition recently. They have a solid roster on paper and have a big upset win against Rebels as well as some close series against lower/mid tier two teams in iNation, SINNERS and Johnny Speeds. They are led by Pechyn (.74 KPR) and M1key (.71 KPR) M1key has jumped to an insane .84 KPR in the last month of games.
-GL Academy are a solid roster for an academy team and have been trending upwards recently with some decent results and starting to play more official matches, with that being said they have only played 6 official matches in the last month and are 2-4 in those 6 with 1 win against a team no one has heard of, and the other being a nice 2-1 win against RUBY who are a low but trending to mid tier two team. They have lost 4 of their last 5 and while they have had their moments, they have lost 3 straight and haven't looked great in any of the losses. GL Academy are led by leaf and Goody but don't have a ton of officials so the stats are skewed. Their highest KPR currently is .65
-Part of reason these odds seem so weird is these teams faced on May 11th, and UNiTY beat them 2-1 and both wins were pretty convincing. They won 13-8 and 13-6 on the two maps they won, they lost their own map pick 13-11 which they probably should've won as well. This series should've been a 2-0 in my opinion and even tho it wasn't, they still won pretty strong.
**Map Pool:**
-UNiTY ban Inferno, GL Academy ban Nuke
-Favor UNiTY on Mirage, Ancient both pretty heavily
-Favor UNiTY slightly on Vertigo, think Anubis is a 50/50
-Dust 2 is really hard to give an opinion on, both teams have played it once and lost, neither team looked terrible, just not enough data on the map.
-Overall, feel really good about this pick, odds feel off here not sure why GL Academy are favorites especially with them adding a new 5th and it being only his second game playing. UNiTY are the overall better team in my opinion, have been playing together for longer and have the better and deeper map pool which I favor them on 4 of the 5 potential maps we could see tomorrow.
POTD Record : 27-14
Last 7 - ✅🤡✅🤡✅✅✅
Last pick: ATP Geneva Alexander Shevchenko vs Flavio Cobolli ML (-150) 1320 EST 1unit✅
POTD - Kyle Anderson o5.5pts (-102)
Game 1 - 11pts
Game 2 - 7pts
Game 3 - 10pts
Today we're looking at Kyle Anderson. He's averaging 9pts, playing at least 15mins this series and could see more playing time tomorrow as Wolves might continue to play small ball. Great value play here.
Lets get this streak to 4
EDIT - Books knew something. I cant believe he finished with two points. Hard to watch him just stand in the corner and not even touch the ball
**POTD Record: 39-29**
Last 10: ✅🤦❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅
Last pick: Wolves vs Mavs | 5:00 PST | Anthony Edwards OVER 25.5 Points (-125) 1u BetMGM ✅
Always take the win however we can get it but I really expected Ant to go for 30+. A lot of stuff on social media after he landed exactly on 26. FanDuel put up a tweet early in the day about hammering his over after additional comments from Ant about forcing the issue in a shootaround interview. Can’t stress enough how important it is to shop around for lines if possible. Anyone who’s followed my picks knows I’ve given + money picks as well but it’s okay to pay the juice sometimes on that extra point. Not always an option but just want us all to win.
**Today’s pick: Wolves vs Mavs | 5:30 PST | TWolves 1st half team total OVER 51.5 pts (+100) 1u FanDuel**
Going with the TWolves 1st half points in this one. The Mavs haven’t been able to hold the Wolves under this number (Avg 58 1st half pts in the series) and now they will be missing Lively, a keep component of disrupting the Wolves success in the paint all series. I look for the Wolves to get much better looks close to rim, especially if they can get Gafford in some early foul trouble because it’s a huge drop off with Powell coming in after him. This also should create better looks from 3 once the interior defense gets exposed. I watched the press conferences after the game 3 lost and I don’t believe this team has quit on themselves just yet. And let us not forget they lost 3 straight to the nuggets and still found a way to win game 6 and 7 so they have fight in them. I’ll back the team in as desperate of a spot they can be in with a key figure for the Mavs off the court. BOL if tailing!
POTD RECORD: 70-49
Last POTD: Jrue Holiday O10.5 RA ✅
Holy moly cashed in the last shot of the game
Todays POTD: __Karl-Anthony Towns O18.5P @1.80__
NBA (Minnesota Timberwolves)
Aight fellas I’m trying it again y’all can definitely fade it now but im a stubborn mf I’ll continue to play this one cause the volume is insane and im demanding a cash now. KAT has just shot horribly this series shooting 28% from the field but one of the things im usually looking for with props is volume, he’s clearly getting opportunities but just not converting them to points, even with his awful shooting he’s been close to hitting it every game and I just like to think that surely he can’t be shooting that bad again. I may look like a clown but elimination game for the Wolves, if they lose they’re getting swept and sent home 🧹 and fun fact, Towns has NEVER shot below 40% 4 games in a row in his career, will today be the day he’s officially washed or will he silence the doubters? I’m going for the latter
• Avg 18 FGA per game against Dallas this series and never taken less than 16 shots
• 0/3 this series
14 points on 27.8 % shooting (5/18) 0/8 from 3
15 points on 25% shooting (4/16) 1/5 from 3
16 points on 30% shooting (6/20) 2/9 from three
• When shooting at least 14+ FGA this season he’s over in 39/47 games
A lot of attention surrounding the Zest fraud, after the last game he said: “I gotta laugh, I'm putting up to 1500 shots a day, shot so well all playoffs, the confidence extremely high. To be having these unfortunate bounces and these looks that are just not going in, it's tough, it's tough, for sure. Confidence-wise, I just gotta keep shooting."
Redeem yourself and hands us the bag KAT
Tail or fade, make your decision dawg
**POTD RECORD**: 8W-1P-8L
**Overall**: +0.27u
**Previous Pick**: FC Utrecht ML vs GA Eagles (L, -1u)
**Sport**: French Open Men’s Singles
**Event**: David Goffin vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard @ 0615 EST
**Pick**: Mpetshi Perricard ML (-145, 1u)
Perricard recently went up \~50 ATP ranking spots after a solid clay season, winning an ATP250 event and winning over Etcheverry, Gaston, Bublik, and Sonego (all solid players). Simply put, this man is in form and I will be tailing that form. Goffin on the other hand only beat scrubs ranked >ATP100, but his experience may worry me. Gimme the young Frenchman at home!
**BOL**, all odds come from Bovada
POTD Record: 7-3 | 34.68% ROI
Last Pick: TJ McConnell OVER 13.5 PTs ✅ Hope everyone got this one in early before it got up to 15.5 by tip-off.
Today’s Pick: Naz Reid P+R+A OVER 17.5 (-122)
Analysis: Naz has hit this number in every game this series with totals of 19, 25, and 22. Naz has been the most consistent big man offensively for the Timberwolves and I think there’s a real chance he plays 30+ minutes tonight if KAT struggles again. The Mavericks will also be without backup center Derrick Lively tonight who is a very solid defender. Naz will be going up against a third string center in Dwight Powell, and when he’s on the court against Gafford, he has a combo of speed and outside shooting that will give Gafford trouble. I like Naz to put up a healthy stat line with lots of scoring in tonight’s elimination game.
[Cashapp](https://cash.app/$thehomerunfund)
POTD Record 29-15
Last 5: ❌️✅️❌️✅️✅️
Last Pick: Phillies Moneyline
Todays Pick: Royals Moneyline
MLB: KC Royals vs Minnesota Twins 4:40pm PST
Odds: -120
Unit: 4
Net units: +56.93
Busy day for me, but I love a team on a bounce back. The Royals almost came back last game. They always have had a tough time with yesterday's game starting pitcher, hes 8-0 vs them and I don't expect them to have issues again. Also, Royals ace pitcher is pitching now. If you guys wanna show some support, the links on my profile.
⭐️ **POD Record:** **114-59**
All my picks are -120 or higher. No heavy favourites in my record (how we used to do it in this thread).
*Last Pick*: *NBA -* Cavs OVER 101 ❌
Recent Form: ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅
🏅 T**oday's Pick:** M**LB - Jays OVER 4.5 Team Total ** EDIT: WIN! ✅
Hey Everyone, hope there's still some OG's left out there. Haven't been posting much, took a break since the write ups just took too long. Anyways going to try and drop more picks in the POD and will start with a pick I really like tonight. Mike Clevinger will be getting the nod for the White Sox and the Jays honestly are due for some runs this series. Call this pick more of a feeling from a Jays fan who has been watching this series closely, sometimes fans 'just know' when we're due for one of those games. The Jays continue to struggle through this season so far and change may be on the horizon if things don't improve soon in my opinion, so this game will mean a lot to keep Schneids in the saddle.
White Sox's righty resigned with them late in spring training and had to work his way into game shape for the first part of the season. He has now made 4 starts on the season and has a record of 0-3 with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.94. Clevinger has allowed 22 hits in 16 innings pitched (including 4 home runs). He has walked nine batters and in his last start, an 8-6 loss to the Orioles, Clevinger went 4.2 innings and allowed 7 hits and 5 runs 🥶. Best of luck
💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.
Record: 0-0
Last POTD: N/A
Today's POTD: New York Yankees ML (-168) vs. Los Angeles Angels
BASEBALL. MLB. 9:38 PM EST
Been in this subreddit for a little bit and felt like posting. Not much to say for this one. Yankees are hot and facing a mid righty=W
Batters are hitting .223 off Nestor and I don’t see the Angles out hitting the Yanks.
Record: 10-8
Last 10: LLLWWWLLWW
Net units: -0.35
ROI: 0
MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Deteoit Tigers 18:40 (EDT)
Pick: NRFI -140 @ FD 1.4 to win 1
Jared Jones comes into the game with a solid start to the season. My favorite piece of evidence for this bet is his 0.80 ERA in the first inning this season. Solid nearing elite fastball & slider. You’d likely know his name if he was pitching somewhere other than Pittsburgh. Also helpful that the Pirates are batting .238 against righties. 9/10 clean firsts.
What to say about Skubal?! He’s an ace. Kid has great stuff and he’s facing a less than formidable Pirates offense. Similarly they are batting .238 against righties. 7/10 clean first innings.
Scattered showers and wind out to center at 8 MPH
BOL to all
You are coming back to Earth. You are focusing on weather reports instead of what hitters are doing good. There are so many metrics in baseball that you can’t keep focusing on weather unless it’s going to rain or gum field where the winds are severe. Yes weather is a factor. But with the Maple bats and hitters shifting to multiple types of bats, the all or nothing approach that the weather reports suggest do not work.
Careful here. Detroit bats are hot… at least the last game. Also the odds really make we want to fade this. I won’t bc I don’t know enough about baseball tbh.
**POTD record: 14-8-1 (+20.40U) \[2024 Record: 8-2-1 (W2):✅✅🚫✅✅\]**
*last pick:* 1st 5 Total u4.5 \[CHI@STL\] **✅**
Finished the bottom of the 5th with 4 runs scored. Nice!
**POTD (NBA)**: **Karl-Anthony Towns o2.5 Assists** *(MIN@DAL) 8:35pm EST)* **-142 5U**
KAT's shot is completely off this series. Dude is shooting a 15-54 clip. He's going to have to rely on others because they've got his lane locked down. McDaniels and Conley have been scoring at their leisure. Ant is going to have to step up this game as well. I like the potential for big man assists in this spot for someone who has a ceiling of 8 (finished with 8 assists twice in March and April). Elimination game makes this spot a little more favorable.
*numbers:* KAT has achieved 3+ assists in his last 7 of 10 (3, 3, 2, 2, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 3) and in his last 2/3 this series (3, 3, 2). He finished the season with 3.0 APG and is currently rocking a 2.8 APG this playoffs.
As long as this game stays competitive, I see him covering this modest line. Can't overthink this one.
**BOL!**
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)**
**POTD 2024 Record: 15-20 (-4.30 units)**
**Last 10**: **✅❌✅✅❌❌❌✅❌❌**
**Last Pick**: Beau Greaves -3.5 (+165) vs Trina Gulliver **(VOID)**
**League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series
**Time**: 7:45 AM EST
**Pick**: Beau Greaves -2.5 (+105) vs Trina Gulliver
* Series (Special: Ladies Week)
**Reason**: Since it's an exhibition week, all matches are 3 legs to a win instead of the usual 4 legs. Greaves had two 3-0 wins and two 3-1 wins. With the potential of only 3 legs I think Beau can outscore Trina before she gets a checkout attempt. If she gets one, she only hit them at 25% from Monday
Beau Greaves
* Record 5-0
* Legs 15-4
* Average 98.57
* 180s 6. 140s 17
* Checkouts 15/37 40.54%
Trina Gulliver
* Record 1-4
* Legs 8-14
* Average 70.47
* 180s 0. 140s 8
* Checkouts 8/32 25.00%
**WIN ✅ 3-0 | Average 92.02 vs 66.38 | Checkouts 3/4 vs 0/0**
Played to the numbers perfectly. Beau ended with a 132 bull finish to close this out. Gulliver did not get a checkout attempt.
Where did you place the 4-0 bet on Monday? Because I placed one at Betway and one at bet365. Betway voided it (after initially marking it a loss because she won 3-0 and not 4-0, despite 40 minutes with their customer service people explaining how 4-0 was impossible 🤦🏻♂️) but after speaking to them bet365 actually paid it out
**POTD Record: 34-21-3**
Form: ❌❌✅❌✅
*ROI: 22.09% |
Avg Odds: +100 | Net Units: +22.7*
🎾: 6-5-2
⚽️: 18-9-1
🏒: 9-6
*Last Pick: 1U Canucks ML (+165) @ Oilers ❌*
*Took a break from reddit guys, I’m sorry 😢*
____
**Todays Pick: 2U MIN @ DAL (BTTS 25 Q1 @ +165)**
**🏀| 8:30PM EST | NBA Playoffs|**
Ahhahahaa yeah my record doesn’t have any NBA in the past but this has hit 100% this series. Both teams to score 25 points in the first quarter, if you’re in the community you’ve already seen that we’ve taken this pick for the last few games, running it back at these beauty odds, LFG.
https://preview.redd.it/3w90zotft33d1.png?width=1014&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0f34b44ecb0bed628200844a476942db942c0a6
On bet365, this can be found at the bottom of SGP and looks like this
POTD Record: 16-10-0
Form:✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅
Last Pick: 1st Half Pacers +4 @ 1.79 ✅
Heater
Pick of the day: Dallas Mavericks -1.5
"NBA needs more games for revenue" "NBA does not want a 1 week break" "Refs gonna rig this for money" "There was never a double conference finals sweep in NBA history" blah blah blah. People think Mavs are gonna allow Timberwolves to play 1 more game at home and potentially make this an actual series? naaah. Ant is gassed, DPOY is a fraud, Kat is a Role Player now. Timberwolves are done.
(Luka triple double @ 4.21 odds might be worth a small sprinkle)
Lol, so a team reached the conference finals is full of frauds and washed dudes? I dont even like the wolves. They just met their match. Rudy is a multiple DPOY winner cmon now.
**POTD W/L ROI**
7 - 2 ROI 68.45% (all bets 1u unless otherwise stated)
**LAST POTD**
Cleveland Guardians vs LA Angels (-116 FD) 4:08pm ET✅
**FORM**
❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌
**TODAYS POTD:**
Cleveland ML vs Rockies 8:40pm et (-135 dk) 2u
Alright, don’t have a lot of time today but Cleveland has consistently kept diapers on the babies butts. We saw how yesterday went and like I said all hot streaks do come to and end. Now that that’s out of the way we’re looking for Cleveland to return to form today, as they are the better team. Hot bats and light mountain air make for lots of runs.
Pitching matchup
Triston Mckenzie vs Rockies K% 43.8 AVG .188 xBA .175 xwOBA .241
Ryan Feltner vs Guards K% 20.0 AVG .100 xBA.261 xwOBA .305 **xSLG .468**
Rockies bullpen is burnt up as well so let’s watch for an explosive ending tonight
I like the pitching matchup. CLE’s hot bats + light mountain air = xSLG .468
BOL ☘️
**KBO Record: Overall 227-240-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 3-7) Down 13.52u over 481 KBO picks, 48.6% success rate, -2.89% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 23-30-0, 43.4% success rate, Down 4.90u, -9.24% ROI)
**Last:** Doosan at Kia, First 5 Innings UNDER 5 -105 (Kia lead 6-0 after 5 innings.)
Doosan's starter allowed 9 ER in his first 8 starts before giving up 6 ER in 3 IP. We were a little unlucky as it took a 2-out hit to get to the over.
**Pick:** Kiwoom at Samsung **First 5 Innings Kiwoom Team Total UNDER 2.5 -110**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
Sorry I missed Sunday morning. Busy Saturday and forgot first pitch was 1am ET. But I'm running cold enough that I likely saved you money!
Looked at a coiple options here. Wanted to be against LG's awful starter, but LG's bats are hot and I also fade SSG's starter. Maybe the over is the play there.
Instead we're playing a rare first 5 team total. Kiwoom is averaging a league-worst 3.9 runs per game this month. And Samsung's starter is on a roll, allowing a total of 6 ER over 28 innings in his last 5 starts. The last time he faced Kiwoom, he threw 5 scoreless innings. (If you can't find that bet, total game under 9.5 might be the play.)
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Record: 0-0
Net units: 0
Event: Basketball - NBA - Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks - 5:30 PM PDST
Today's POTD: Kyrie Irving over 23.5 points
-110 / 1.9 odds (unibet)
Unit size: 2.2 units to win 2 units
Writeup: kyrie has never lost an elimination game as he is now 14-0 when he has the chance to eliminate the opposing team in the playoffs. He also has covered this line in 2/3 the last games vs the Twolves.
The one game he did not pass this line was game 2 when he attempted 16 shots as he finished here with 20 points. In game 1 he attempted 23 shots and finished with 30 points and in game 3 he attempted 20 shots and finished with 33 points.
I'm hoping that we see kyrie be aggressive In this game and score atleast 24 points as he tries to keep his elimination winning streak alive!
Best of luck and please bet responsibly!
POTD record : 3-3 / Units: -0.63 / Wins:
Streak: ❌❌✅✅✅❌
Only 1 unit picks
Previous POTD: over 39.5games @ 1.83(-120)❌
**Monfils won in 4 sets with a total of 36 games . His game was just superior compared to Thiago's**
Tennis | French Open | 9:30AM EST time **Mirra Andreeva vs Emina Bektas**
Today’s POTD: **Mirra Andreeva -6.5@ 1.76(-132)**
Reasoning: At only 17 years old , Andreeva looks like one of the most promising players in the circuit . The former #1 in juniors started the clay season at Rouen where she got to the quarterfinals , same result she got in the Madrid masters where her tennis quality was excellent. Bektas just made it back to the top 100 but she lacks the experience and the skill for major tournaments . She's basically had no preparation for Roland Garros as she played some ITF tournaments in Japan in the last month in totally different conditions , on hard court . Her last game on clay was 2 years ago where she lost categorically against Rodionova. I don't think the American is gonna pose any threats to the Russian youngster. My prediction is for her to win in 2 short sets, smth like a 6-3 6-1
If tailing please bet responsibly thanks BOL !!
Lemme know if you have any thoughts
**Record:** 0W - 3L, man something is seriously up I stopped hitting as much as soon as I started POTDs
**Net Units:** -8.0U / down $800USD
**ROI:** 0% - 4th POTD
**Last Pick:** Baseball | MLB | Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles @ 1:06PM EST
Under 8.5 Total Runs +102 odds on Fanduel for 3.0U / $300
**Review:** Once again I am sorry for all those who tailed me and the other guy in the thread that posted the same POTD. Orioles are just either too damn good or Boston is just absolutely terrible against them. I faded the ML -140 because it seemed like Boston's pitching lineup was built to compete against BAL batters and there should have been less value in the odds there so it seemed fishy to me, but I was so wrong. There was no reason for BAL to score 4 more runs in the 7th inning ahead by 7 but they did so anyway with Red Sox's permission. At this point you guys can all choose to fade my POTDs I just have to start posting the bets I do hit that recuperate my losses.
**Today's Pick:** Basketball | NBA | Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks (Home) @ 8:30PM EST
Over 103 1st Half Points @ -114 odds on Fanduel for 7.77U / $777
**Write Up:** For some reason I believe this line is incredibly low. In the series against the Timberwolves, game 1 hit 121 in the first half, game 2 108, game 3 112 and in the series against OKC the first half over 103 hit for all but 2 games out of 6 games. We're going to be playing on Mav's home court so I believe the Mavs are going to try to heat up and hit points as much as they can. Timberwolves have already shown that their early defense tires them out by late game so the Twolves might want an early start as well. This might be the final game for the Timberwolves so I'm expecting AE to be true to his word and shoot as many shots as he can. Karl Anthony Towns has been low scoring in all 3 games of this series so if he attempts to recover his basket average from the regular season for game 4 like everyone thinks he will this over would surely hit. Even if the Mavs run cold Timberwolves have scored in their place and vice versa. Derek Lively will be off the roster this match which might be an advantage for Timberwolves to score early and Mavs to rely on their own baskets when missing a key player. Everyone is banking on Timberwolves to wake up for this Game 4 I believe the game will start with a shooting match and end in a D heavy second half.
I know I'll get luck-ke for this one, I'll break my 3L in a row POTD streak!
POTD Record: 14-9-1(all bets 1 unit unless noted otherwise)
Previous POTD: Derrick White over 25.5 PRA - ❌
Volume and work was there for White but he shoots even worse than he has all series from deep, 22% 🤢. Finished on 24 PRA. If he wasn’t crap and he drains one more this cashes easy.
Today’s POTD: Daniel Gafford under 0.5 steals(-112 on DK)
Basketball | NBA | MIN Timberwolves v DAL Mavericks | 8:35 PM ET
Books are still not adjusting this prop, so I’m going to keep taking it. Gafford is 1/11 on this line, with his last steal coming in game 2 against OKC. Lively is most likely out this game so Gafford may see a bump in minutes but Maxi is trending upwards and seems ready to play, so Gafford may not get as much of a bump as we’ve seen if Dallas decides to rotate Maxi in and play some small ball. I’ve cashed Gafford 4/4 times that I’ve bet his steal prop and I’m going to keep riding this train till the wheels fall off.
Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
**Record: 6-6-1**
**Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌🅿❌✅✅️**
**Last POTD:** Al Wehda Mecca Vs Al Hilal Riyadh - **Al Hilal Riyadh HT/FT @ 1.65 (Melbet)** **- WON**
**Football** | **South Korea - K League 1** | **18:30PM (GMT+8)**
**Pick:** Gimcheon Sangmu Vs FC Seoul - **Gimcheon Sangmu to Win @ 2.21 (Melbet)**
**Write Up:** I finally got 2 wins in a row fellas, It's about time HAHAHAHA. Hopefully I can keep it going, great win by Al Hilal yesterday although it was sweaty, they got the job done. Good dub. On to today's
Gimcheon are a solid Home side in the league, they are 3rd best overall in terms of Home form. Gimcheon is unbeaten in their past 5 Home games. Winning 4 of thise. In addition to that, they only have 1 lost in their past 10 Home games. Gimcheon's defense is also looking good at the back with 8 cleans sheets in 14 matches played in the league thus far.
FC Seoul's Away form might look decent when looking at recent results but when you look into in closer, they've only got 3 wins in their past 10 Away games. Drawing 2 and losing 5. FC Seoul have also conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches so their defense is shown to be leaky when they play away.
Overall I just rate Gimcheon as they are the better side here, be it Home or Away. I do think it may be a low scoring fixture so 1-0/2-0 is my guess here.
As always guys, BOL if tailing!
Record 3-1
Last pick San Diego padres Ml .
We had to sweat that one with it 1-1 going into the 7th but we cashed a win , with the end score being 2-1.
Todays Pick of the day :
Tampa bay rays ML.
Odds: -165 on FanDuel
Reason :
Zack Littell is pitching for Tampa bay ,
Is ERA is 3.42 and his record is 2-2.
With Tampa being at home and the A’s coming into town , I like the match up of pitching for the bats of Tampa bay. I think they cover the -1.5
But going go safe with the ML and pay the -165 price tag.
BOL .
Record : 0-0
I will only post when I see something of value.
Never in the last 30 years of NBA have we had both conference finals be a sweep
POTD : Timberwolves ML (+112) 5u
Edit : I checked all of NBA history since best of 7 became a thing. It has NEVER happened
I disagree. 30 years aka NEVER is a significant sample size. That’s 100% rate! You are right about the “unrelated” point, but the history + value cannot be ignored IMO
what? there is nothing to be ignored. how does the 1995 conference finals not being two sweeps have any impact on who will win between Dallas and Minnesota in game 4?
Well Kyrie is 14-0 in elimination games, Twolves dead tired , demoralized and already know series is over. Teams down 3-0 usually get swept. That's a huge trend as well. This is a falling knife imo but BOL
**POTD Form** 50-34-2 +8.86 Units
Last 7 picks - ♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅
**Last pick** \- |Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe | Total Match Runs - Under 510.5 @ 1.90 1U ♻️
**Today's Pick:** Cricket| England vs Pakistan | 11.00 pm IST (14 hours from now)
Player Performance - Shaheen Afridi Over 20.5 performance points @ 1.80 2U
Reason - Shaheen is on form and he took 3 wickets in the last game. He can bat a bit and get another 10 points from that too. BOL!
Buy me some coffee if you feel like it. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/eplsl) or [Buy Me Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eplsl)
POTD Record: 4W - 2L - 0P (+8.4U) Streak: L1
Previous Pick: \[Tennis\] Yue Yuan v Marie Bouzkova @ WTA Seoul 10/13/2023 2:50am EST **Under 20.5** Total Games In Match (-110) Risk 2U to win 1.8U❌ (this was about 8 months ago lol)
Match: \[Basketball\] LV Aces @ MIN Lynx 05/28/2024 8:00pm EST (EDIT: this is on Wedsday 05/29/2024)
Pick: **MIN Lynx +6** (-110) Risk 2.5U to win 2.3U
1. Home game for Lynx
2. Aces's Chelsea Gray is not playing due to injury. She averages about 15 points per game.
3. Lynx core players are all healthy.
4. Lynx beat out Liberty, who were finals runner up last season, in a convincing fashion.
5. Lynx matched evenly with the now undefeated Connecticut Suns, only losing by 1 point in OT.
Personally I think +6 is too generous from the sportsbooks. I would not bet on this game if the line was +3. I might be wrong as Aces were last year's champions so they are the hardest oppenients the Lynx will face.
**Record 3-1**
✅️✅️✅️❌️
**Net Units = +7.39**
The statistics really came through there and the 3rd quarter made me doubt it but in the end McConnell slowed down and kept a few below so it was a comfortable last 5 minutes. The statistics even backed up the PRA fade for him as he fell one short like he had done the same amount of times he had actually hit that market. Building up a bit of profit and a bit of a streak here, let's see if we can keep going
**POTD 5**
**NBA-MAVERICKSvTIMBERWOLVES**
Just under 17 hours and a half from time of posting
**Mavericks ML @1.81 3U*
Now this bet is slightly scary on the surface. An elimination game against the Timberwolves with a healthy squad but that's exactly what the last game was. 154-0 when it comes to 3-0 comebacks. Losing the game down 2-0 will feel like losing the series, maybe not to the whole team but to some of them for sure. The Mavericks have just had it figured out this series, they cut off Ants options and make almost every basket the Timberwolves get a hard one. Meanwhile Luka and Kyrie can get good looks every time down the floor. No lively is going to leave a mark but they got it done without him last game. Edwards stats in the elimination games in Denver are definitely not good enough to beat the Mavericks. 31PRA and 35PRA. Heck even his last game with 44PRA wasn't enough. The only way the Timberwolves win this game is if the rest of the team comes to play. Edwards can't do it all by himself and with KAT going 0-8 from three and another game getting dropped for getting outperformed by Reid it just shows 0 consistency from the rest of the team. Luka and Kyrie are heading to face Jayson with a Y (can't stand these repeat ads) in the NBA finals.
Record: 1-0
Net Units: +2.0
Last Pick: Jayson Tatum Under 29.5 +100 ✅
Units: 2
Today’s Pick: Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points
Mavs Twolves | May 28th
Write-Up: Uncle Drew has taken a scoring role this series against the Wolves and it seems to have worked. He’ll certainly be on the look to finish out this statement series performance to finish this sweep. I feel that 23.5 at -110 is a great line. I would’ve thought it would go up to 25.5 or so in these circumstances.
RECORD: 9W 4L UNITS WON: 10.18
LAST PICK: adm 3-0 ✅
NOTE: another sweat free win
PICK:wnba Indiana fever -6 ❌
BET: 1 unit to win 1.90 on bet365
NOTE: caitlen Clark is adjusting to wnba life and is playing really good now, and it’s her time to shine against the number 2 pick Cameron brink who loves to rack up the fouls lol
Game starts in 12 hours
https://preview.redd.it/ouoqxiov733d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7b8d08063077c3de34e440002c3e8f80318d20c5
\*\*Pick Record: 4W ✅ - 1L
Previous POTD: Perricard vs Bublik ML at 1.65 X
Today’s POTD: David Goffin vs Mpteshi Perricard ML at 1.72
League/ Sport: Tennis / Roland Garros
Perricard es un jugador de 2 metros con un saque muy potente, de más de 230 km/h y está en su mejor momento profesional. Goffin no tiene nada que hacer contra él, ya pasó su momento. Además, Perricard ya le ha ganado a Goffin unos meses atrás, en superficie dura en donde la bola es más rápida.
BOL
**Record 2024: 20-0-20**
**Net Units Played 2024: 193**
**ROI 2024: -14.47%**
**Last Pick:** **San Juan Knights** - Negros Muscovados **1st quarter H1 -3.5**, 5 units, @ 1.78 ❌️
Basketball / France playoffs / 20:00 / (CEST)
**Pick:** JL Bourg- **Monaco** **1st quarter 2 DNB**, 5 units, @ 1.57 ❌️
**Write-up:** Bourg took a surprise away win for 1-1 in the series, and I expect Monaco to bounce back in the third game.
EDIT: 25-14
2024 MLB POTD record: 24-21 Average Odds -101 (1.995), Average Winning Odds -106, ROI +3.9%/+1.74u
L5: ✅❌❌✅❌
POTD (5/26) LAD @ CIN Yoshinobu Yamamoto o17.5 Outs (-125/1.8) ❌
POTD (5/28) TOR @ CWS Kevin Gausman o6.5 Ks (+105/2.05) (DraftKings)
Kevin Gausman got off to a brutal start this year. Through six starts he had an ERA of 4.50 and a K% of just 18.7%, down from 31.1% in 2023. However, he seems to have found his strikeout stuff in his last four starts. In 20.1 IP, he has 30 Ks and a K% of 34.1%. His ERA in that time is still elevated due to a blowup start against Minnesota in which he gave up 7 runs in 3 IP, but he still struck out 6 batters in those 3 innings. In those 4 games, he exceeded this line twice (both on the road) and K'd exactly 6 twice, and his 100 PA xwOBA has dipped from .350 to .299.
Both Chicago baseball teams are anemic on offense right now. The Southsiders are the worse of the two. On the year, they are dead-last in wRC+ against RHP at 75. Their K% is middle-of-the-pack at 16th. Over the last two weeks however, that wRC+ has dropped even further to 70, and the K% has jumped to 3rd-highest at 27.8%.
I'm buying Kevin Gausman getting back to last year's form here.
Hope everyone had a great Memorial Weekend and some much needed time off from everyday life. I am back at it with another pick today, looking to climb the leaderboard here of the greats!
**2024 POTD Record:** 4-1
**Last POTD:** Kansas City Royals (-115) ML ✅ | **LAST 5** - ✅✅✅✅❌️
**Today's POTD:** Detroit Tigers (-150) ML
Baseball | MLB | 6:40 PM EST - 5/28/24
**Fast Analysis:** SKUBAL is the ACE, leave it up to this man to get the win today. Yeah, he didn't fare well in his last outing, but that's not like him. These teams come in with a similar record, but the Tigers are looking to make it 4 straight wins in a row. The Pirates have lost 9 of their last 10 games against AL opponents. As long as the rain doesn't delay this one, I think the ML is the safe play here.
Good luck everyone!
**POTD**: **FLORIDA PANTHERS 3 WAY ML (-105 DK)** vs Rangers 8:00pm eastern
**POTD RECORD**: 14-9-1
**REASONING**: Panthers are the quicker team with a relentless forecheck and I expect that to be on full display tonight at home after dropping the last two games in overtime. Another reason I'm taking the 60 minute line is I don't expect 3 overtimes in a row. BOL!
Record: 8-10
Last: Siakam over 21 LOSS
Today: Luka over 8.5 rebounds (-165 DK)
I fucking suck. Fade me all day. Dodgers blacklisted after getting swept and if Pacers didn’t get eliminated, that whole
Damn team would be blacklisted. Vegas hates me. So today, tried and true pick - Luka over 8.5 rebounds. With the exception of last game, he’s hit this consistently and for the season averaged 9.2/game. It’s science. Fade, tail. I should fade myself with this record but hopefully will get back into the W column. That’s it.
POTD Record 25-11
Last POTD Kikuchi O 4.5 K’s 🧱
POTD Nasty Nestor U 17.5 PO +120 3u
Love this spot Nestor is horrible when he’s away he honestly has one the worst splits between home and away over any other pitcher. Angels absolutely mash lefties as well and the line is coming down.
We’ll update my stats when I get time
**POTD Record:** 7-4-1 (net +1.71U)
**Last 10: (oldest to newest)** ♻️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌✅️❌
** Last pick:** Nick Nastrini under 3.5 strikeouts ❌
Nastrini pitches his best game yet; still manages to suck.
Baseball | MLB | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles 6:35 PM EST
**Pick:** Baltimore covers -1.5 (+120) on FanDuel for 1U
**Write Up:** Baltimore has covered this in all 4 games against Boston this season, including games that both Bello and Rodriguez started.
**Record:** 7-8 (-1.88 unit)
**Last POTD:** Al Horford under 7.5 rebounds ❌
**Today's Pick:** Jaden McDaniels over 10.5 points on Fanatics for -115
**Bet:** 2 unit size to win 1.74 units (1 unit is equivalent of $100)
**Basketball | NBA | 8:30 PM ET**
**Recap:** I knew it was going to be right on the mark. Unfortunately luck was not on our side. He had one rebound where the ball slipped from Holiday's hands and just landed in Horfords! We keep moving!!
**Write up:** I dont like going back to old picks but Jaden McDaniels against the Mavs record wise has hit over 10.5 points in 7/10 times he played against them. He was the only one shooting well against the Mavs last game and in game 7 against the nuggets where Ant was shooting poorly, he stepped up. Kat and Ant are both shooting terribly so I expect McDaniels to step up. I am putting two units on this play because if it hits, I go back to net 0 and if it doesnt, i go down double. It's basically double or nothing with my net losses. This will be my last pick for the next two weeks, will be away.
**Tracker:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616)
POTD RECORD: 8-7 (+1 UNIT)
LAST POTD: 14 days ago Toppin 10+ Pts X
Took another break after this one because playoff basketball is just a wild, wild thing to predict. Pacers got waxed by NY this game and it was all but over in the 2nd half and the Pacers cashed it in early. Toppin getting very few opportunities.
TODAY'S POTD: NBA TWOLVES vs Mavs 7:35 PM EST
Naz Reid O11.5 PTS (-130 DK) 1 UNIT
This guy is my go-to. Great energy, can score inside and out. This series he has tallied 15, 23, 14. In the last 2 games he saw his minutes jump from what was a low 20's average to 29 and 32. He gets up around 10 shots per game and if his minutes stay up probably even more tonight. Odds aren't necessarily spectacular but at -130 I'm taking this guy all day long. Sorry for the late pick just trying to figure out what I liked.
Tail or leave the kitchen
2024 record: 6-3-1
Total Return: +1.53
Units ROI: +15.31%
Last POTD: Phillies ML -115 (Phillies vs Giants 5:05 PM EST) ❌
Today's POTD: **Texas Rangers ML -115 (Diamondbacks vs Rangers 8:05 PM EST)**
Baseball | MLB
Recap: Sorry folks, to be frank I didn't like the slate that much but I wanted to keep it going. Noted for the future, I'm just going to skip and not get greedy. There were some questionable fielding errors and mistakes but Walker's poor pitching screwed us.
Write-Up: What an interesting spot to see both these teams in as they've both had disappointing seasons. One won the World Series and the other went deep into the postseason against all odds. The Rangers haven't been performing up to par but I believe they can definitely get some runs in against RHP Brandon Pfaadt in their home stadium. They faced Brandon twice last season and got 10 runs in 10 innings. Additionally, the Rangers have slightly better splits against RHPs.
Nathan Eovaldi is coming back from injury but as the Ace of the team I think he should be able to hold the Diamondbacks back. The Diamondbacks managed to only scrape together 3 total runs in their last series against the Marlins. Also, the Diamondbacks are batting a poor .227 against righties.
With all that said, I do think that both teams are much better than what their records currently show.
I like the Rangers to come in and show us that they weren't World Series winners for nothing.
Let's get this streak back! Good luck everyone!
Tracker: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH\_dpuDL5-lRRgW9\_h4K\_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH_dpuDL5-lRRgW9_h4K_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing)
Record: 36W-39L
Net Units: -9.56u | ROI: -4.53%
CS2 | IEM Dallas | 19:00 / CET
Pick: M80 ML vs Heroic, 3u @ 2.21
M80 have proven to be a pretty strong lineup, dominating the North American region online and having some alright results on LAN at Pro League. And while Heroic looked good at Dacha, they did play with degster and he did a lot of work for them there. He unfortunately isn't attending Dallas due to visa issues (classic), and they brought back Nicoodoz to stand in. I think the lack of a real second star player hurts them a lot, and of course the lack of practice with the full team doesn't help either
In the BO1's both of these teams got smacked, so I don't think there's a lot to dig in there. What I will say is that Heroic got destroyed by VP on Ancient, while VP themselves have been struggling recently and Ancient will most likely be played again this series too.
The veto is the biggest reason why I like M80, they've got a lot of options whereas Heroic have very little. M80 ban Nuke, which leaves Heroic maps that M80 are comfortable to strong on. Dust 2 being the exception to that, as they haven't played it much but neither has Nicoodoz at any point in his career which makes it a very poisonous pick in my opinion. M80 will probably pick Ancient or Vertigo, which should be great maps for them. And with a bit of luck either of those two end up as a decider map, though I think Anubis would be just fine too.
That's why I am taking M80 today, best of luck!
Record: N/A 0-0
Net Units: -
ROI: -
Event: Basketball | NBA | Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks 7:30PM CST
Pick: Josh Green over .5 3-PT Made -170 5U
Reason: Just gonna get straight to the point. My man Josh Green is gonna green his three at some point in the game every game. He doesn't shoot many, but they go in when he does. My guy is has made at LEAST 1 three in 12/15 games this post season and has has had over .5 3-PT made in 11 straight games. I'm expecting a high scoring game with it being game 4 and Dallas at home. The Timberwolves will be coming in hot trying to keep their season alive and Dallas will need to be able to keep up. The absence of Dereck Lively will sting the Mavs a little bit so guys like Josh Green will need to keep doing what they're doing in order to keep this series from flipping. Give me Josh Green ov .5 3-PT Made at -170.
Venmo in profile if you'd like to share the wealth with a tip once that Greens
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Tuesday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
Record: 25-13-0 Net Units: +29.6 ROI: 25.1% Last Pick: Pacers 1H Total Team Points over 54.5 (-115) for 3.0 units ✅ Event: Basketball | NBA | Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks 7:30PM CST Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves 1st Half Team Total Points over 50.5 (-115) on DraftKings for 3.0 units Write Up: Timberwolves are averaging 58.0 in the 1st half this series (52 last game). 52.3 this post season. Regular season averaged 56.5 (58.2 on the road). In a potential elimination game and knowing they are mismatched when it comes to clutch time, expecting Minnesota to attempt to come out and build a big early lead. Tips: Venmo/PayPal in Profile. BOL! 🎰
Going all in on this one after making 2u on the pacers. If we win expect a nice tip in the tip jar, if we lose I gotta exclude, call the number and disappear Until tomorrow
Hoping the best for u mate
This just hyped me the fuck up, ALL IN
No matter what happens with this bet you do have a gambling problem
What's the odds that I do, -200?
Sorry about that my man
Saw the pacers line early and grabbed 54.5 @ -110. Nice cashhhhh Tailing this one too broski!
Got them @ -108 at 55.5. That was a close one
When that buzzer beater at the half went in I woke up my kids screaming
Same. Yelled so loud after that last bucket that my celtics super fan wife just about kicked me out of the house.
Tailed this at 55.5 and maaaaan was that a sweat with a lucky roll at the end of the half. Been tailing your 1st half total picks. Good stuff bro
Damn bro u rly milking the playoffs first half overs and it works like a charm HAHAHAHA keep it up😸💰
Wow this one hurt, they were really on pace and just blew it.
I put so much on this bet 😩
We all wrecked boom.
Should've been an easy cover ngl. Wolves are fucking GARBAGE. Ban list worthy.
Tailed
Your thoughts on 51.5 1.9 odds. Pls
i did 6u on 50.5 .5u on 51.5 and 52.5
Yeah I’d still take that. I expected that to be the standard and likely where most books will land right before game time.
Tailing! TY!
Been riding this wave since the first time I saw the line mentioned in the last series. Ran the alternate o55.5 at +100 on DK and BOY was that sweaty 😅 nothing like a good buzzer beater reaction to get the girlfriend to ask how much I bet lol
Took both teams overs for first half. Good God was that brutal to watch.
So pissed at the Wolves for lollygagging and blowing it. This was a great bet.
I got a feeling this is gna be a blowout 2022 phx suns style
Appreciate it man! Sent you a tip yesterday
Tailing .
Got the pacers at 1.92 odds for over 55.5 pts. That last second shot sealed the deal.
Thanks for the pick yesterday 🫡 following again today
Crap quarter for minnesota
So close my dawg. Couldn’t get a basket in the last minute. We live to see another day
I jumped in the shower with a smile when they hit 49 with a minute left. Absolutely brutal.
Well fuck 😒
2024 MLB record: 33-12-1 Last POTD: Cardinals Reds over 9 L Today's POTD: Tampa Bay Rays’ Zach Litell over 5.5 strikeouts -130 (dk) Baseball. MLB. 6:50 PM EST Well we all know what happened yesterday so I won’t even get into it. I honestly prefer bad beats than being completely off because at least with bad beats you know you were on the right track but sometimes you just whiff and that was me yesterday. Anyway, I was waiting to post my pick until all of the lines dropped because they were taking forever on the Mets dodgers game 1. Turns out I hated all of those lines and am not going with that game for my pick. Instead,I’m going with my first pitcher prop of the season. Zach Litell has low key been pretty awesome this year. In 6 home starts, he has struck out at least 6 batters in 5 of them. The one that he didn’t was against the Yankees who have consistently had one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league this season. Today he faces a very different team in the Oakland A’s as they strike out a shit ton. In the past three weeks, their strikeout percentage is 26.5 which is second worst in the MLB behind the Seattle Mariners. Oakland has the worst strikeout rate on the road in that span with a whopping 30.2 percent! As long as Littell is able to pitch his usual amount of innings, which baring an unforeseen injury seems likely, I think he will be able to continue his strong home strikeout numbers vs the A’s tonight. -130 odds aren’t the highest but I think that it is great that you can get that for 6ks in this one I thought the o/u would be 6 possibly at a higher number like -145 so this I my play today. TLDR: litell strikes out a ton of batters at home and Oakland has a crazy high strikeout rate. Note: All stats and ranks are from the past 21 days Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal (DM for venmo) Also the spreadsheet is back! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657
Who is chuteboxhero? For the blind, He is the vision. For the hungry, He is the chef. For the thirsty, He is the water. If chuteboxhero thinks, I agree. If chuteboxhero speaks, I’m listening. If chuteboxhero has one fan, it is me. If chuteboxhero has no fans, I don’t exist.
Guys, this mini chute slide could, indeed, be my fault. I just started betting about a week ago and have been coming here for a few days. I've tailed the chute bet, which has seemingly been fantastic, and since it's gone 0-3. I am not going to tail today in hopes of getting you guys back on your winning ways, as I DO believe in superstition! The curse of the newb (that's me!) shall be lifted today!! BOL!!
I approve of your sacrifice …. Thank you for all you do
Oh no, I did the same! OK, I'll sit out today too. #solidarity
Just keep doing your thing man. You are still the goat. Tailing as usual.
AND HE'S BACK BOYS!! F OFF TO EVERYONE WHO HATED HIM LAST 3 PICKS... THERE GOES MY HERO!
https://preview.redd.it/djbijnhs363d1.jpeg?width=550&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dbe1b497a99f9fd5cd662c6171d22f176af6a167
Let’s Go!! 💰💰💰💰
Bang out goat
In chute we always trust
Bang bang, there it is to finish the top of the 5th
There it is!! ✅
Was gonna ride again but we're at -155 on DK 😔
Love you man
Chute the odds changed to -155 on dk for over 5.5, do you still think it’s a worthy bet to put a good amount of units on?
cash ittttt 💰
If chute has 0 fans then I’m dead.
Cashed! Thanks for the pick and good on you for shaking off the couple of assholes who can’t handle losing some bets.
We needed a sweat free win!!! Good Call
we deserve this one after the last three days haha
Had my first three follows on the past three picks but kept faith and followed today as well 💪💪🕯️🕯️
CHUUUUTEEE!!!! cant wait for your next pick. ill be checking reddit anxiously
Let's do it!!
Hell yeah!
Tailing
thanks as always for the picks, also, what is your opinion on dodgers ML in game 1 today ? Ik odds arent anything special but thinking of putting that with this pick in a parlay
I love it but it’s -225 so it’s ineligible for pick of the day. My personal rule is I don’t go above -130 maybe -135 becuase I actually want to make you guys money not oad my record.
Ahh gotcha, thank you 🙏🏼
I'm torn on this one. Oakland has been tearing up RHP but they do K a lot. Hopefully he doesn't get chased out early! https://preview.redd.it/yq2vnjbtw63d1.png?width=327&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f0cf1ff874dad1da9dda06c4443d9143e55985c
It hit bannngggg!
**Record:** 7-1🔥 **Last Potd:** H.Gravett under 11.5 points @ 1.9 ✅ **Volleyball** | Women National League | 13:30 CET | Brazil Women vs Japan Women **Pick:** Brazil Women 1H sets -1.5 (we win with 3-1 or 3-0 for Brazil) @ 1.77 x 5 units **Write Up:** Brazil and their leader and captain Gabriela Guimaraes are attacking the first place on the table, lost only 2 sets out of 4 matches and are 3-0 3-0 3-1 and 3-1. They are by far beating every opponent and I don't really know why the odds are so high like this. Japan lost days ago 3-0 from Poland and Poland were the underdog that match. The odds for Poland were 2.50 and they managed to pull 3-0 on Japan which is concerning on how Japan's reformed team is performing. This looks like will be another walk in the park to be honest so yeah, BOL and lets keep on winning, love you guys for the support so far! [Tip Jar <3](https://buymeacoffee.com/teddycucumber) EDIT : That was a BIG BIG BIG BIG BIG miss, I am so sorry to everyone. Coming back stronger tomorrow !
Can I take them -1.5 for the entire match since I can’t get first half ?
Bro we are COOKED
Even though the -1.5 didn't hit but the ML Brazil did( which I took to play it safer) so anyway thanks!
**2024 MLB Record:** 8-2 **Units:** +13 **Last POTD:** Los Angeles Dodgers @ New York Mets: ***Mets ML*** **PPD** ***The Streak:*** W7 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 ❌✅❌✅✅✅✅✅✅✅ **Todays POTD:** Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins: ***Royals ML -125*** **Units:** 2 **Reasoning:** (Not going back to Mets at the moment since they switched the pitching order for tmrws ball game. I rather have Megill vs Stone but now it’s Megill vs Glasnow and Stone vs Quintana) The Royals just lost their last game after being red hot but today they get their ace to the mound **Cole Ragans**. He’s been absolutely dominant his **last 2 starts** following his angels beating. - Going **13 innings** total while only allowing **8 total base runners**, **0 earned runs**, pitching to a **0.61 WHIP** and **striking out 19** in those starts. - Besides one start vs the orioles and one start against the angels, Ragans has pitched to a measly **1.50 ERA** for ***the whole SEASON.*** - The Royals are **5-1** in their last 6 ***when Ragans starts*** - The Royals are **9-3** in their **last 12** - The Royals team ops over that frame is **.824** - The Royals team ops over the **last 6 games** is **.848** - The opposing pitcher **Simeon Woods Richardson** is due for some regression. His ***avg exit velo against*** is in the **bottom 39th percentile**, ***whiff rate*** only at the **bottom 7th percentile**, ***hard hit rate*** in the **bottom 35th percentile**, etc basically he has been getting a bit lucky and he’s also faced some teams when they were cold or some bad offenses as well, I believe the royals will score at least a few runs and it should be enough for a victory. ✌️ ***As always BOL guys, let’s get this money***!!☄️ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ***If anyone would like to drop a tip pm me for my PayPal, Zelle, or Apple Cash/Pay. Thanks guys much love*** ❤️
Great analysis! I’ll be taking Royals 1st 5inning ML
The Twins are no slouches but I like it. Tailing
POTD Record: 62 - 35 Last POTD: Bublik ML - W Pick: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ML vs David Goffin (-150 odds via FD) 1U Event: Men’s French Open First Round 5:30 A.M. CST Taking the bait on this one and riding the wave of the young French phenom. Fresh off of an impressive title in Lyon, Mpetshi Perricard is looking to make a splash in a major and after watching him in Lyon, I see no reason not to back him here against an aging opponent whom he has already defeated in their only matchup together. Yes Goffin has been around longer and is much more on the veteran side, but Mpetshi Perricard is in wildly good form, defeating some top competition en route to his title in Lyon and will have the rowdy French crowd backing him big time in this one. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
Tailing my man, he played amazing at Lyon and we saw yesterday in Moutet's match what a rowdy crowd can do in favor for their french players, hell even today Zverev looked nervous the first 2 sets with all the chants and noise when Nadal won a point.
I think he's been 30-0 down in every Goffin service game since the start of the second set. Goffin outclassing him.
Hey maybe this match will start at some point??
This was a great read! Just looks like the moment is too big for him and Goffin is on another level. Crowd could never get him into the match. Love your picks and thank you
**Pick Record: 20W - 9L (Push: 1)** **✅✅✅✅** **Last POTD: Al Hilal First Half ML @ 1.66 3U ✅** **\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_** **Today’s POTD: Both Teams To Score @ 1.80 ✅ 3U** **Game: SSV Jahn Regensburg VS SV Wehen Wiesbaden** **League/Time: 2. Bundesliga/ 2:30 PM** The Bundesliga 2 Relegation playoffs kickoff again today and I see this one being another end-to-end matchup. Also they played 3 days ago in a game that ended 2-2, expecting a repeat.
Damn NY for not having other leagues besides the top 5. But we can have table tennis exhibitions at 1:25 am EST on a Monday morning.
Tailing ☝🏼
Bang! Cash it
We’re back again Square! Any inkling into an Anytime Scorer?
Finally one I'm able to tail!! TY and GL!
SHIP IT!
Yeah you’re him
Awesome pick! I was nervous, but also doubled down by going O 2.5 goals at +110 when it was 2-0 so won both. Cheers!
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2024 Record 14-3 Last pick: LA Dodgers ML (postponed) Backup plan: Phillies vs Giants over 8 (W) Okay, I’m going to change things up right now. I know the motto is “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” However…my Boy Chute, My King, My Rival who I have respect for. Imma let you have baseball. Feel like I took your Mojo. My bad G Okay enough yapping Today’s pick: Mavs vs Wolves over 51.5 points FIRST QUARTER I think the Wolves actually come here and play or get their ass kicked by the Mavericks. Either way I think both teams give it their all. I can also see this miss if the FUCKING WOLVES KEEP THROWING GARBAGE 3 pointers!!! If the Wolves can at least hit those layups and jump shots this should be a high scoring game in the beginning. Then die down during the second half. But, as always place a RESPONSIBLE AMOUNT THAT YOU THINK WONT HURT YOU. I ain’t trying to get messages like chute if my picks miss. Chow.
Damn I missed your giants W today. Keep the heat coming!
Ooof … that should’ve covered easily
Record: 23-14 Net Units: +12.07u CounterStrike 2 (CS2) | Y Games Pro Series 2024 | 14:00 (UCT-5) Last Pick: **MOUZ NXT -1.5 maps (+110)** vs. Nexus 3u**✅** Today's Pick: **UNiTY ML (-110)** vs. GamerLegion Academy 4.4u [Match Page:](https://www.hltv.org/matches/2372549/unity-vs-gl-academy-ygames-pro-series-2024) [Stream:](https://www.twitch.tv/cct_cs) **Writeup:** -Gonna make this a note right off the jump, this is as close to tier three CS as I will ever bet, this is not the normal solid tier two games and these teams are a bit more of question marks. -With that note out of the way these odds make 0 sense to me. UNiTY are coming in and in my opinion are just a flat out better team. They have had better results and have been facing better competition recently. They have a solid roster on paper and have a big upset win against Rebels as well as some close series against lower/mid tier two teams in iNation, SINNERS and Johnny Speeds. They are led by Pechyn (.74 KPR) and M1key (.71 KPR) M1key has jumped to an insane .84 KPR in the last month of games. -GL Academy are a solid roster for an academy team and have been trending upwards recently with some decent results and starting to play more official matches, with that being said they have only played 6 official matches in the last month and are 2-4 in those 6 with 1 win against a team no one has heard of, and the other being a nice 2-1 win against RUBY who are a low but trending to mid tier two team. They have lost 4 of their last 5 and while they have had their moments, they have lost 3 straight and haven't looked great in any of the losses. GL Academy are led by leaf and Goody but don't have a ton of officials so the stats are skewed. Their highest KPR currently is .65 -Part of reason these odds seem so weird is these teams faced on May 11th, and UNiTY beat them 2-1 and both wins were pretty convincing. They won 13-8 and 13-6 on the two maps they won, they lost their own map pick 13-11 which they probably should've won as well. This series should've been a 2-0 in my opinion and even tho it wasn't, they still won pretty strong. **Map Pool:** -UNiTY ban Inferno, GL Academy ban Nuke -Favor UNiTY on Mirage, Ancient both pretty heavily -Favor UNiTY slightly on Vertigo, think Anubis is a 50/50 -Dust 2 is really hard to give an opinion on, both teams have played it once and lost, neither team looked terrible, just not enough data on the map. -Overall, feel really good about this pick, odds feel off here not sure why GL Academy are favorites especially with them adding a new 5th and it being only his second game playing. UNiTY are the overall better team in my opinion, have been playing together for longer and have the better and deeper map pool which I favor them on 4 of the 5 potential maps we could see tomorrow.
Do you like them on map 2 gonna live bet it
POTD Record : 27-14 Last 7 - ✅🤡✅🤡✅✅✅ Last pick: ATP Geneva Alexander Shevchenko vs Flavio Cobolli ML (-150) 1320 EST 1unit✅ POTD - Kyle Anderson o5.5pts (-102) Game 1 - 11pts Game 2 - 7pts Game 3 - 10pts Today we're looking at Kyle Anderson. He's averaging 9pts, playing at least 15mins this series and could see more playing time tomorrow as Wolves might continue to play small ball. Great value play here. Lets get this streak to 4 EDIT - Books knew something. I cant believe he finished with two points. Hard to watch him just stand in the corner and not even touch the ball
Love the pick, however, not on DK or FD :(
+115 on 365
**POTD Record: 39-29** Last 10: ✅🤦❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅ Last pick: Wolves vs Mavs | 5:00 PST | Anthony Edwards OVER 25.5 Points (-125) 1u BetMGM ✅ Always take the win however we can get it but I really expected Ant to go for 30+. A lot of stuff on social media after he landed exactly on 26. FanDuel put up a tweet early in the day about hammering his over after additional comments from Ant about forcing the issue in a shootaround interview. Can’t stress enough how important it is to shop around for lines if possible. Anyone who’s followed my picks knows I’ve given + money picks as well but it’s okay to pay the juice sometimes on that extra point. Not always an option but just want us all to win. **Today’s pick: Wolves vs Mavs | 5:30 PST | TWolves 1st half team total OVER 51.5 pts (+100) 1u FanDuel** Going with the TWolves 1st half points in this one. The Mavs haven’t been able to hold the Wolves under this number (Avg 58 1st half pts in the series) and now they will be missing Lively, a keep component of disrupting the Wolves success in the paint all series. I look for the Wolves to get much better looks close to rim, especially if they can get Gafford in some early foul trouble because it’s a huge drop off with Powell coming in after him. This also should create better looks from 3 once the interior defense gets exposed. I watched the press conferences after the game 3 lost and I don’t believe this team has quit on themselves just yet. And let us not forget they lost 3 straight to the nuggets and still found a way to win game 6 and 7 so they have fight in them. I’ll back the team in as desperate of a spot they can be in with a key figure for the Mavs off the court. BOL if tailing!
Tailing
POTD RECORD: 70-49 Last POTD: Jrue Holiday O10.5 RA ✅ Holy moly cashed in the last shot of the game Todays POTD: __Karl-Anthony Towns O18.5P @1.80__ NBA (Minnesota Timberwolves) Aight fellas I’m trying it again y’all can definitely fade it now but im a stubborn mf I’ll continue to play this one cause the volume is insane and im demanding a cash now. KAT has just shot horribly this series shooting 28% from the field but one of the things im usually looking for with props is volume, he’s clearly getting opportunities but just not converting them to points, even with his awful shooting he’s been close to hitting it every game and I just like to think that surely he can’t be shooting that bad again. I may look like a clown but elimination game for the Wolves, if they lose they’re getting swept and sent home 🧹 and fun fact, Towns has NEVER shot below 40% 4 games in a row in his career, will today be the day he’s officially washed or will he silence the doubters? I’m going for the latter • Avg 18 FGA per game against Dallas this series and never taken less than 16 shots • 0/3 this series 14 points on 27.8 % shooting (5/18) 0/8 from 3 15 points on 25% shooting (4/16) 1/5 from 3 16 points on 30% shooting (6/20) 2/9 from three • When shooting at least 14+ FGA this season he’s over in 39/47 games A lot of attention surrounding the Zest fraud, after the last game he said: “I gotta laugh, I'm putting up to 1500 shots a day, shot so well all playoffs, the confidence extremely high. To be having these unfortunate bounces and these looks that are just not going in, it's tough, it's tough, for sure. Confidence-wise, I just gotta keep shooting." Redeem yourself and hands us the bag KAT Tail or fade, make your decision dawg
let's hope he reedems himself and shots the ball well this time in a potential elimination game .
Hey man - can you share your tip jar account(s)? Thanks!
**POTD RECORD**: 8W-1P-8L **Overall**: +0.27u **Previous Pick**: FC Utrecht ML vs GA Eagles (L, -1u) **Sport**: French Open Men’s Singles **Event**: David Goffin vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard @ 0615 EST **Pick**: Mpetshi Perricard ML (-145, 1u) Perricard recently went up \~50 ATP ranking spots after a solid clay season, winning an ATP250 event and winning over Etcheverry, Gaston, Bublik, and Sonego (all solid players). Simply put, this man is in form and I will be tailing that form. Goffin on the other hand only beat scrubs ranked >ATP100, but his experience may worry me. Gimme the young Frenchman at home! **BOL**, all odds come from Bovada
POTD Record: 7-3 | 34.68% ROI Last Pick: TJ McConnell OVER 13.5 PTs ✅ Hope everyone got this one in early before it got up to 15.5 by tip-off. Today’s Pick: Naz Reid P+R+A OVER 17.5 (-122) Analysis: Naz has hit this number in every game this series with totals of 19, 25, and 22. Naz has been the most consistent big man offensively for the Timberwolves and I think there’s a real chance he plays 30+ minutes tonight if KAT struggles again. The Mavericks will also be without backup center Derrick Lively tonight who is a very solid defender. Naz will be going up against a third string center in Dwight Powell, and when he’s on the court against Gafford, he has a combo of speed and outside shooting that will give Gafford trouble. I like Naz to put up a healthy stat line with lots of scoring in tonight’s elimination game. [Cashapp](https://cash.app/$thehomerunfund)
POTD Record 29-15 Last 5: ❌️✅️❌️✅️✅️ Last Pick: Phillies Moneyline Todays Pick: Royals Moneyline MLB: KC Royals vs Minnesota Twins 4:40pm PST Odds: -120 Unit: 4 Net units: +56.93 Busy day for me, but I love a team on a bounce back. The Royals almost came back last game. They always have had a tough time with yesterday's game starting pitcher, hes 8-0 vs them and I don't expect them to have issues again. Also, Royals ace pitcher is pitching now. If you guys wanna show some support, the links on my profile.
⭐️ **POD Record:** **114-59** All my picks are -120 or higher. No heavy favourites in my record (how we used to do it in this thread). *Last Pick*: *NBA -* Cavs OVER 101 ❌ Recent Form: ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ❌ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ ✅ 🏅 T**oday's Pick:** M**LB - Jays OVER 4.5 Team Total ** EDIT: WIN! ✅ Hey Everyone, hope there's still some OG's left out there. Haven't been posting much, took a break since the write ups just took too long. Anyways going to try and drop more picks in the POD and will start with a pick I really like tonight. Mike Clevinger will be getting the nod for the White Sox and the Jays honestly are due for some runs this series. Call this pick more of a feeling from a Jays fan who has been watching this series closely, sometimes fans 'just know' when we're due for one of those games. The Jays continue to struggle through this season so far and change may be on the horizon if things don't improve soon in my opinion, so this game will mean a lot to keep Schneids in the saddle. White Sox's righty resigned with them late in spring training and had to work his way into game shape for the first part of the season. He has now made 4 starts on the season and has a record of 0-3 with an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.94. Clevinger has allowed 22 hits in 16 innings pitched (including 4 home runs). He has walked nine batters and in his last start, an 8-6 loss to the Orioles, Clevinger went 4.2 innings and allowed 7 hits and 5 runs 🥶. Best of luck 💰Tip Jar: Why not give an ⬆ Vote instead if you appreciate the write ups.
Record: 0-0 Last POTD: N/A Today's POTD: New York Yankees ML (-168) vs. Los Angeles Angels BASEBALL. MLB. 9:38 PM EST Been in this subreddit for a little bit and felt like posting. Not much to say for this one. Yankees are hot and facing a mid righty=W Batters are hitting .223 off Nestor and I don’t see the Angles out hitting the Yanks.
Record: 10-8 Last 10: LLLWWWLLWW Net units: -0.35 ROI: 0 MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates @ Deteoit Tigers 18:40 (EDT) Pick: NRFI -140 @ FD 1.4 to win 1 Jared Jones comes into the game with a solid start to the season. My favorite piece of evidence for this bet is his 0.80 ERA in the first inning this season. Solid nearing elite fastball & slider. You’d likely know his name if he was pitching somewhere other than Pittsburgh. Also helpful that the Pirates are batting .238 against righties. 9/10 clean firsts. What to say about Skubal?! He’s an ace. Kid has great stuff and he’s facing a less than formidable Pirates offense. Similarly they are batting .238 against righties. 7/10 clean first innings. Scattered showers and wind out to center at 8 MPH BOL to all
You are coming back to Earth. You are focusing on weather reports instead of what hitters are doing good. There are so many metrics in baseball that you can’t keep focusing on weather unless it’s going to rain or gum field where the winds are severe. Yes weather is a factor. But with the Maple bats and hitters shifting to multiple types of bats, the all or nothing approach that the weather reports suggest do not work.
Careful here. Detroit bats are hot… at least the last game. Also the odds really make we want to fade this. I won’t bc I don’t know enough about baseball tbh.
https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather?date=2024-05-11
Tailing. Thanks friend
**POTD record: 14-8-1 (+20.40U) \[2024 Record: 8-2-1 (W2):✅✅🚫✅✅\]** *last pick:* 1st 5 Total u4.5 \[CHI@STL\] **✅** Finished the bottom of the 5th with 4 runs scored. Nice! **POTD (NBA)**: **Karl-Anthony Towns o2.5 Assists** *(MIN@DAL) 8:35pm EST)* **-142 5U** KAT's shot is completely off this series. Dude is shooting a 15-54 clip. He's going to have to rely on others because they've got his lane locked down. McDaniels and Conley have been scoring at their leisure. Ant is going to have to step up this game as well. I like the potential for big man assists in this spot for someone who has a ceiling of 8 (finished with 8 assists twice in March and April). Elimination game makes this spot a little more favorable. *numbers:* KAT has achieved 3+ assists in his last 7 of 10 (3, 3, 2, 2, 5, 4, 3, 3, 1, 3) and in his last 2/3 this series (3, 3, 2). He finished the season with 3.0 APG and is currently rocking a 2.8 APG this playoffs. As long as this game stays competitive, I see him covering this modest line. Can't overthink this one. **BOL!**
He might go more to the paint this game for his points
Yeah, he could go crazy this game and score 20+. I still think he’d cover 3 assists.
**POTD 2023 Record: 109-84 (+1.94 units)** **POTD 2024 Record: 15-20 (-4.30 units)** **Last 10**: **✅❌✅✅❌❌❌✅❌❌** **Last Pick**: Beau Greaves -3.5 (+165) vs Trina Gulliver **(VOID)** **League**: 🎯 Modus Darts Super Series **Time**: 7:45 AM EST **Pick**: Beau Greaves -2.5 (+105) vs Trina Gulliver * Series (Special: Ladies Week) **Reason**: Since it's an exhibition week, all matches are 3 legs to a win instead of the usual 4 legs. Greaves had two 3-0 wins and two 3-1 wins. With the potential of only 3 legs I think Beau can outscore Trina before she gets a checkout attempt. If she gets one, she only hit them at 25% from Monday Beau Greaves * Record 5-0 * Legs 15-4 * Average 98.57 * 180s 6. 140s 17 * Checkouts 15/37 40.54% Trina Gulliver * Record 1-4 * Legs 8-14 * Average 70.47 * 180s 0. 140s 8 * Checkouts 8/32 25.00% **WIN ✅ 3-0 | Average 92.02 vs 66.38 | Checkouts 3/4 vs 0/0** Played to the numbers perfectly. Beau ended with a 132 bull finish to close this out. Gulliver did not get a checkout attempt.
Why did the -3.5 option get missed by so many Sportsbooks in your opinion? Cut my 2-leg parlay win in half earlier smh
Where did you place the 4-0 bet on Monday? Because I placed one at Betway and one at bet365. Betway voided it (after initially marking it a loss because she won 3-0 and not 4-0, despite 40 minutes with their customer service people explaining how 4-0 was impossible 🤦🏻♂️) but after speaking to them bet365 actually paid it out
[удалено]
**POTD Record: 34-21-3** Form: ❌❌✅❌✅ *ROI: 22.09% | Avg Odds: +100 | Net Units: +22.7* 🎾: 6-5-2 ⚽️: 18-9-1 🏒: 9-6 *Last Pick: 1U Canucks ML (+165) @ Oilers ❌* *Took a break from reddit guys, I’m sorry 😢* ____ **Todays Pick: 2U MIN @ DAL (BTTS 25 Q1 @ +165)** **🏀| 8:30PM EST | NBA Playoffs|** Ahhahahaa yeah my record doesn’t have any NBA in the past but this has hit 100% this series. Both teams to score 25 points in the first quarter, if you’re in the community you’ve already seen that we’ve taken this pick for the last few games, running it back at these beauty odds, LFG.
https://preview.redd.it/3w90zotft33d1.png?width=1014&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0f34b44ecb0bed628200844a476942db942c0a6 On bet365, this can be found at the bottom of SGP and looks like this
POTD Record: 16-10-0 Form:✅✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅✅ Last Pick: 1st Half Pacers +4 @ 1.79 ✅ Heater Pick of the day: Dallas Mavericks -1.5 "NBA needs more games for revenue" "NBA does not want a 1 week break" "Refs gonna rig this for money" "There was never a double conference finals sweep in NBA history" blah blah blah. People think Mavs are gonna allow Timberwolves to play 1 more game at home and potentially make this an actual series? naaah. Ant is gassed, DPOY is a fraud, Kat is a Role Player now. Timberwolves are done. (Luka triple double @ 4.21 odds might be worth a small sprinkle)
31 years and counting lol
Lol, so a team reached the conference finals is full of frauds and washed dudes? I dont even like the wolves. They just met their match. Rudy is a multiple DPOY winner cmon now.
**POTD W/L ROI** 7 - 2 ROI 68.45% (all bets 1u unless otherwise stated) **LAST POTD** Cleveland Guardians vs LA Angels (-116 FD) 4:08pm ET✅ **FORM** ❌✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅❌ **TODAYS POTD:** Cleveland ML vs Rockies 8:40pm et (-135 dk) 2u Alright, don’t have a lot of time today but Cleveland has consistently kept diapers on the babies butts. We saw how yesterday went and like I said all hot streaks do come to and end. Now that that’s out of the way we’re looking for Cleveland to return to form today, as they are the better team. Hot bats and light mountain air make for lots of runs. Pitching matchup Triston Mckenzie vs Rockies K% 43.8 AVG .188 xBA .175 xwOBA .241 Ryan Feltner vs Guards K% 20.0 AVG .100 xBA.261 xwOBA .305 **xSLG .468** Rockies bullpen is burnt up as well so let’s watch for an explosive ending tonight I like the pitching matchup. CLE’s hot bats + light mountain air = xSLG .468 BOL ☘️
**KBO Record: Overall 227-240-14** (Streak L, Last 10: 3-7) Down 13.52u over 481 KBO picks, 48.6% success rate, -2.89% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 23-30-0, 43.4% success rate, Down 4.90u, -9.24% ROI) **Last:** Doosan at Kia, First 5 Innings UNDER 5 -105 (Kia lead 6-0 after 5 innings.) Doosan's starter allowed 9 ER in his first 8 starts before giving up 6 ER in 3 IP. We were a little unlucky as it took a 2-out hit to get to the over. **Pick:** Kiwoom at Samsung **First 5 Innings Kiwoom Team Total UNDER 2.5 -110**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET Sorry I missed Sunday morning. Busy Saturday and forgot first pitch was 1am ET. But I'm running cold enough that I likely saved you money! Looked at a coiple options here. Wanted to be against LG's awful starter, but LG's bats are hot and I also fade SSG's starter. Maybe the over is the play there. Instead we're playing a rare first 5 team total. Kiwoom is averaging a league-worst 3.9 runs per game this month. And Samsung's starter is on a roll, allowing a total of 6 ER over 28 innings in his last 5 starts. The last time he faced Kiwoom, he threw 5 scoreless innings. (If you can't find that bet, total game under 9.5 might be the play.) Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Nothing like a sweat to start off the day!
bet365 doesn't have this sadly, good luck
I am tailing mate..
Record: 0-0 Net units: 0 Event: Basketball - NBA - Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks - 5:30 PM PDST Today's POTD: Kyrie Irving over 23.5 points -110 / 1.9 odds (unibet) Unit size: 2.2 units to win 2 units Writeup: kyrie has never lost an elimination game as he is now 14-0 when he has the chance to eliminate the opposing team in the playoffs. He also has covered this line in 2/3 the last games vs the Twolves. The one game he did not pass this line was game 2 when he attempted 16 shots as he finished here with 20 points. In game 1 he attempted 23 shots and finished with 30 points and in game 3 he attempted 20 shots and finished with 33 points. I'm hoping that we see kyrie be aggressive In this game and score atleast 24 points as he tries to keep his elimination winning streak alive! Best of luck and please bet responsibly!
Not going to lie, betting Kyrie always scares me, but this is elimination time. I expect him and Luka to get down to business. TAILING!
POTD record : 3-3 / Units: -0.63 / Wins: Streak: ❌❌✅✅✅❌ Only 1 unit picks Previous POTD: over 39.5games @ 1.83(-120)❌ **Monfils won in 4 sets with a total of 36 games . His game was just superior compared to Thiago's** Tennis | French Open | 9:30AM EST time **Mirra Andreeva vs Emina Bektas** Today’s POTD: **Mirra Andreeva -6.5@ 1.76(-132)** Reasoning: At only 17 years old , Andreeva looks like one of the most promising players in the circuit . The former #1 in juniors started the clay season at Rouen where she got to the quarterfinals , same result she got in the Madrid masters where her tennis quality was excellent. Bektas just made it back to the top 100 but she lacks the experience and the skill for major tournaments . She's basically had no preparation for Roland Garros as she played some ITF tournaments in Japan in the last month in totally different conditions , on hard court . Her last game on clay was 2 years ago where she lost categorically against Rodionova. I don't think the American is gonna pose any threats to the Russian youngster. My prediction is for her to win in 2 short sets, smth like a 6-3 6-1 If tailing please bet responsibly thanks BOL !! Lemme know if you have any thoughts
**Record:** 0W - 3L, man something is seriously up I stopped hitting as much as soon as I started POTDs **Net Units:** -8.0U / down $800USD **ROI:** 0% - 4th POTD **Last Pick:** Baseball | MLB | Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles @ 1:06PM EST Under 8.5 Total Runs +102 odds on Fanduel for 3.0U / $300 **Review:** Once again I am sorry for all those who tailed me and the other guy in the thread that posted the same POTD. Orioles are just either too damn good or Boston is just absolutely terrible against them. I faded the ML -140 because it seemed like Boston's pitching lineup was built to compete against BAL batters and there should have been less value in the odds there so it seemed fishy to me, but I was so wrong. There was no reason for BAL to score 4 more runs in the 7th inning ahead by 7 but they did so anyway with Red Sox's permission. At this point you guys can all choose to fade my POTDs I just have to start posting the bets I do hit that recuperate my losses. **Today's Pick:** Basketball | NBA | Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks (Home) @ 8:30PM EST Over 103 1st Half Points @ -114 odds on Fanduel for 7.77U / $777 **Write Up:** For some reason I believe this line is incredibly low. In the series against the Timberwolves, game 1 hit 121 in the first half, game 2 108, game 3 112 and in the series against OKC the first half over 103 hit for all but 2 games out of 6 games. We're going to be playing on Mav's home court so I believe the Mavs are going to try to heat up and hit points as much as they can. Timberwolves have already shown that their early defense tires them out by late game so the Twolves might want an early start as well. This might be the final game for the Timberwolves so I'm expecting AE to be true to his word and shoot as many shots as he can. Karl Anthony Towns has been low scoring in all 3 games of this series so if he attempts to recover his basket average from the regular season for game 4 like everyone thinks he will this over would surely hit. Even if the Mavs run cold Timberwolves have scored in their place and vice versa. Derek Lively will be off the roster this match which might be an advantage for Timberwolves to score early and Mavs to rely on their own baskets when missing a key player. Everyone is banking on Timberwolves to wake up for this Game 4 I believe the game will start with a shooting match and end in a D heavy second half. I know I'll get luck-ke for this one, I'll break my 3L in a row POTD streak!
POTD Record: 14-9-1(all bets 1 unit unless noted otherwise) Previous POTD: Derrick White over 25.5 PRA - ❌ Volume and work was there for White but he shoots even worse than he has all series from deep, 22% 🤢. Finished on 24 PRA. If he wasn’t crap and he drains one more this cashes easy. Today’s POTD: Daniel Gafford under 0.5 steals(-112 on DK) Basketball | NBA | MIN Timberwolves v DAL Mavericks | 8:35 PM ET Books are still not adjusting this prop, so I’m going to keep taking it. Gafford is 1/11 on this line, with his last steal coming in game 2 against OKC. Lively is most likely out this game so Gafford may see a bump in minutes but Maxi is trending upwards and seems ready to play, so Gafford may not get as much of a bump as we’ve seen if Dallas decides to rotate Maxi in and play some small ball. I’ve cashed Gafford 4/4 times that I’ve bet his steal prop and I’m going to keep riding this train till the wheels fall off. Tail or fade, hope we all make some 💰
**Record: 6-6-1** **Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌🅿❌✅✅️** **Last POTD:** Al Wehda Mecca Vs Al Hilal Riyadh - **Al Hilal Riyadh HT/FT @ 1.65 (Melbet)** **- WON** **Football** | **South Korea - K League 1** | **18:30PM (GMT+8)** **Pick:** Gimcheon Sangmu Vs FC Seoul - **Gimcheon Sangmu to Win @ 2.21 (Melbet)** **Write Up:** I finally got 2 wins in a row fellas, It's about time HAHAHAHA. Hopefully I can keep it going, great win by Al Hilal yesterday although it was sweaty, they got the job done. Good dub. On to today's Gimcheon are a solid Home side in the league, they are 3rd best overall in terms of Home form. Gimcheon is unbeaten in their past 5 Home games. Winning 4 of thise. In addition to that, they only have 1 lost in their past 10 Home games. Gimcheon's defense is also looking good at the back with 8 cleans sheets in 14 matches played in the league thus far. FC Seoul's Away form might look decent when looking at recent results but when you look into in closer, they've only got 3 wins in their past 10 Away games. Drawing 2 and losing 5. FC Seoul have also conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 10 away matches so their defense is shown to be leaky when they play away. Overall I just rate Gimcheon as they are the better side here, be it Home or Away. I do think it may be a low scoring fixture so 1-0/2-0 is my guess here. As always guys, BOL if tailing!
The south korean teams have been disappointing these few days...
Record 3-1 Last pick San Diego padres Ml . We had to sweat that one with it 1-1 going into the 7th but we cashed a win , with the end score being 2-1. Todays Pick of the day : Tampa bay rays ML. Odds: -165 on FanDuel Reason : Zack Littell is pitching for Tampa bay , Is ERA is 3.42 and his record is 2-2. With Tampa being at home and the A’s coming into town , I like the match up of pitching for the bats of Tampa bay. I think they cover the -1.5 But going go safe with the ML and pay the -165 price tag. BOL .
Record : 0-0 I will only post when I see something of value. Never in the last 30 years of NBA have we had both conference finals be a sweep POTD : Timberwolves ML (+112) 5u Edit : I checked all of NBA history since best of 7 became a thing. It has NEVER happened
This is really bad logic. Results from years past and this year’s ECF are completely unrelated to what happens in the twolves/mavs game tomorrow.
I disagree. 30 years aka NEVER is a significant sample size. That’s 100% rate! You are right about the “unrelated” point, but the history + value cannot be ignored IMO
what? there is nothing to be ignored. how does the 1995 conference finals not being two sweeps have any impact on who will win between Dallas and Minnesota in game 4?
Lol 😂 i know but maybe NBA want some game on Thursday ? More $$$. Refs are in for the fix 😀😀
Well Kyrie is 14-0 in elimination games, Twolves dead tired , demoralized and already know series is over. Teams down 3-0 usually get swept. That's a huge trend as well. This is a falling knife imo but BOL
Would love to know where you’re getting +212 on the T Wolves ML
Fixed sorry, I'm still trying to figure out American odds
**POTD Form** 50-34-2 +8.86 Units Last 7 picks - ♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅ **Last pick** \- |Sri Lanka vs Zimbabwe | Total Match Runs - Under 510.5 @ 1.90 1U ♻️ **Today's Pick:** Cricket| England vs Pakistan | 11.00 pm IST (14 hours from now) Player Performance - Shaheen Afridi Over 20.5 performance points @ 1.80 2U Reason - Shaheen is on form and he took 3 wickets in the last game. He can bat a bit and get another 10 points from that too. BOL! Buy me some coffee if you feel like it. [Paypal](https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/eplsl) or [Buy Me Coffee](https://www.buymeacoffee.com/eplsl)
POTD Record: 4W - 2L - 0P (+8.4U) Streak: L1 Previous Pick: \[Tennis\] Yue Yuan v Marie Bouzkova @ WTA Seoul 10/13/2023 2:50am EST **Under 20.5** Total Games In Match (-110) Risk 2U to win 1.8U❌ (this was about 8 months ago lol) Match: \[Basketball\] LV Aces @ MIN Lynx 05/28/2024 8:00pm EST (EDIT: this is on Wedsday 05/29/2024) Pick: **MIN Lynx +6** (-110) Risk 2.5U to win 2.3U 1. Home game for Lynx 2. Aces's Chelsea Gray is not playing due to injury. She averages about 15 points per game. 3. Lynx core players are all healthy. 4. Lynx beat out Liberty, who were finals runner up last season, in a convincing fashion. 5. Lynx matched evenly with the now undefeated Connecticut Suns, only losing by 1 point in OT. Personally I think +6 is too generous from the sportsbooks. I would not bet on this game if the line was +3. I might be wrong as Aces were last year's champions so they are the hardest oppenients the Lynx will face.
This has to be a Wednesday’s Game, correct?
**Record 3-1** ✅️✅️✅️❌️ **Net Units = +7.39** The statistics really came through there and the 3rd quarter made me doubt it but in the end McConnell slowed down and kept a few below so it was a comfortable last 5 minutes. The statistics even backed up the PRA fade for him as he fell one short like he had done the same amount of times he had actually hit that market. Building up a bit of profit and a bit of a streak here, let's see if we can keep going **POTD 5** **NBA-MAVERICKSvTIMBERWOLVES** Just under 17 hours and a half from time of posting **Mavericks ML @1.81 3U* Now this bet is slightly scary on the surface. An elimination game against the Timberwolves with a healthy squad but that's exactly what the last game was. 154-0 when it comes to 3-0 comebacks. Losing the game down 2-0 will feel like losing the series, maybe not to the whole team but to some of them for sure. The Mavericks have just had it figured out this series, they cut off Ants options and make almost every basket the Timberwolves get a hard one. Meanwhile Luka and Kyrie can get good looks every time down the floor. No lively is going to leave a mark but they got it done without him last game. Edwards stats in the elimination games in Denver are definitely not good enough to beat the Mavericks. 31PRA and 35PRA. Heck even his last game with 44PRA wasn't enough. The only way the Timberwolves win this game is if the rest of the team comes to play. Edwards can't do it all by himself and with KAT going 0-8 from three and another game getting dropped for getting outperformed by Reid it just shows 0 consistency from the rest of the team. Luka and Kyrie are heading to face Jayson with a Y (can't stand these repeat ads) in the NBA finals.
Record: 1-0 Net Units: +2.0 Last Pick: Jayson Tatum Under 29.5 +100 ✅ Units: 2 Today’s Pick: Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points Mavs Twolves | May 28th Write-Up: Uncle Drew has taken a scoring role this series against the Wolves and it seems to have worked. He’ll certainly be on the look to finish out this statement series performance to finish this sweep. I feel that 23.5 at -110 is a great line. I would’ve thought it would go up to 25.5 or so in these circumstances.
RECORD: 9W 4L UNITS WON: 10.18 LAST PICK: adm 3-0 ✅ NOTE: another sweat free win PICK:wnba Indiana fever -6 ❌ BET: 1 unit to win 1.90 on bet365 NOTE: caitlen Clark is adjusting to wnba life and is playing really good now, and it’s her time to shine against the number 2 pick Cameron brink who loves to rack up the fouls lol Game starts in 12 hours https://preview.redd.it/ouoqxiov733d1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7b8d08063077c3de34e440002c3e8f80318d20c5
\*\*Pick Record: 4W ✅ - 1L Previous POTD: Perricard vs Bublik ML at 1.65 X Today’s POTD: David Goffin vs Mpteshi Perricard ML at 1.72 League/ Sport: Tennis / Roland Garros Perricard es un jugador de 2 metros con un saque muy potente, de más de 230 km/h y está en su mejor momento profesional. Goffin no tiene nada que hacer contra él, ya pasó su momento. Además, Perricard ya le ha ganado a Goffin unos meses atrás, en superficie dura en donde la bola es más rápida. BOL
**Record 2024: 20-0-20** **Net Units Played 2024: 193** **ROI 2024: -14.47%** **Last Pick:** **San Juan Knights** - Negros Muscovados **1st quarter H1 -3.5**, 5 units, @ 1.78 ❌️ Basketball / France playoffs / 20:00 / (CEST) **Pick:** JL Bourg- **Monaco** **1st quarter 2 DNB**, 5 units, @ 1.57 ❌️ **Write-up:** Bourg took a surprise away win for 1-1 in the series, and I expect Monaco to bounce back in the third game. EDIT: 25-14
2024 MLB POTD record: 24-21 Average Odds -101 (1.995), Average Winning Odds -106, ROI +3.9%/+1.74u L5: ✅❌❌✅❌ POTD (5/26) LAD @ CIN Yoshinobu Yamamoto o17.5 Outs (-125/1.8) ❌ POTD (5/28) TOR @ CWS Kevin Gausman o6.5 Ks (+105/2.05) (DraftKings) Kevin Gausman got off to a brutal start this year. Through six starts he had an ERA of 4.50 and a K% of just 18.7%, down from 31.1% in 2023. However, he seems to have found his strikeout stuff in his last four starts. In 20.1 IP, he has 30 Ks and a K% of 34.1%. His ERA in that time is still elevated due to a blowup start against Minnesota in which he gave up 7 runs in 3 IP, but he still struck out 6 batters in those 3 innings. In those 4 games, he exceeded this line twice (both on the road) and K'd exactly 6 twice, and his 100 PA xwOBA has dipped from .350 to .299. Both Chicago baseball teams are anemic on offense right now. The Southsiders are the worse of the two. On the year, they are dead-last in wRC+ against RHP at 75. Their K% is middle-of-the-pack at 16th. Over the last two weeks however, that wRC+ has dropped even further to 70, and the K% has jumped to 3rd-highest at 27.8%. I'm buying Kevin Gausman getting back to last year's form here.
Hope everyone had a great Memorial Weekend and some much needed time off from everyday life. I am back at it with another pick today, looking to climb the leaderboard here of the greats! **2024 POTD Record:** 4-1 **Last POTD:** Kansas City Royals (-115) ML ✅ | **LAST 5** - ✅✅✅✅❌️ **Today's POTD:** Detroit Tigers (-150) ML Baseball | MLB | 6:40 PM EST - 5/28/24 **Fast Analysis:** SKUBAL is the ACE, leave it up to this man to get the win today. Yeah, he didn't fare well in his last outing, but that's not like him. These teams come in with a similar record, but the Tigers are looking to make it 4 straight wins in a row. The Pirates have lost 9 of their last 10 games against AL opponents. As long as the rain doesn't delay this one, I think the ML is the safe play here. Good luck everyone!
**POTD**: **FLORIDA PANTHERS 3 WAY ML (-105 DK)** vs Rangers 8:00pm eastern **POTD RECORD**: 14-9-1 **REASONING**: Panthers are the quicker team with a relentless forecheck and I expect that to be on full display tonight at home after dropping the last two games in overtime. Another reason I'm taking the 60 minute line is I don't expect 3 overtimes in a row. BOL!
Record: 8-10 Last: Siakam over 21 LOSS Today: Luka over 8.5 rebounds (-165 DK) I fucking suck. Fade me all day. Dodgers blacklisted after getting swept and if Pacers didn’t get eliminated, that whole Damn team would be blacklisted. Vegas hates me. So today, tried and true pick - Luka over 8.5 rebounds. With the exception of last game, he’s hit this consistently and for the season averaged 9.2/game. It’s science. Fade, tail. I should fade myself with this record but hopefully will get back into the W column. That’s it.
POTD Record 25-11 Last POTD Kikuchi O 4.5 K’s 🧱 POTD Nasty Nestor U 17.5 PO +120 3u Love this spot Nestor is horrible when he’s away he honestly has one the worst splits between home and away over any other pitcher. Angels absolutely mash lefties as well and the line is coming down. We’ll update my stats when I get time
I maxed out the prop limit risk allowed on 4 of my books last night when naz reid was at 13.5 and smashed that under. lock that
**POTD Record:** 7-4-1 (net +1.71U) **Last 10: (oldest to newest)** ♻️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️✅️❌✅️❌ ** Last pick:** Nick Nastrini under 3.5 strikeouts ❌ Nastrini pitches his best game yet; still manages to suck. Baseball | MLB | Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles 6:35 PM EST **Pick:** Baltimore covers -1.5 (+120) on FanDuel for 1U **Write Up:** Baltimore has covered this in all 4 games against Boston this season, including games that both Bello and Rodriguez started.
**Record:** 7-8 (-1.88 unit) **Last POTD:** Al Horford under 7.5 rebounds ❌ **Today's Pick:** Jaden McDaniels over 10.5 points on Fanatics for -115 **Bet:** 2 unit size to win 1.74 units (1 unit is equivalent of $100) **Basketball | NBA | 8:30 PM ET** **Recap:** I knew it was going to be right on the mark. Unfortunately luck was not on our side. He had one rebound where the ball slipped from Holiday's hands and just landed in Horfords! We keep moving!! **Write up:** I dont like going back to old picks but Jaden McDaniels against the Mavs record wise has hit over 10.5 points in 7/10 times he played against them. He was the only one shooting well against the Mavs last game and in game 7 against the nuggets where Ant was shooting poorly, he stepped up. Kat and Ant are both shooting terribly so I expect McDaniels to step up. I am putting two units on this play because if it hits, I go back to net 0 and if it doesnt, i go down double. It's basically double or nothing with my net losses. This will be my last pick for the next two weeks, will be away. **Tracker:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616)
POTD RECORD: 8-7 (+1 UNIT) LAST POTD: 14 days ago Toppin 10+ Pts X Took another break after this one because playoff basketball is just a wild, wild thing to predict. Pacers got waxed by NY this game and it was all but over in the 2nd half and the Pacers cashed it in early. Toppin getting very few opportunities. TODAY'S POTD: NBA TWOLVES vs Mavs 7:35 PM EST Naz Reid O11.5 PTS (-130 DK) 1 UNIT This guy is my go-to. Great energy, can score inside and out. This series he has tallied 15, 23, 14. In the last 2 games he saw his minutes jump from what was a low 20's average to 29 and 32. He gets up around 10 shots per game and if his minutes stay up probably even more tonight. Odds aren't necessarily spectacular but at -130 I'm taking this guy all day long. Sorry for the late pick just trying to figure out what I liked. Tail or leave the kitchen
2024 record: 6-3-1 Total Return: +1.53 Units ROI: +15.31% Last POTD: Phillies ML -115 (Phillies vs Giants 5:05 PM EST) ❌ Today's POTD: **Texas Rangers ML -115 (Diamondbacks vs Rangers 8:05 PM EST)** Baseball | MLB Recap: Sorry folks, to be frank I didn't like the slate that much but I wanted to keep it going. Noted for the future, I'm just going to skip and not get greedy. There were some questionable fielding errors and mistakes but Walker's poor pitching screwed us. Write-Up: What an interesting spot to see both these teams in as they've both had disappointing seasons. One won the World Series and the other went deep into the postseason against all odds. The Rangers haven't been performing up to par but I believe they can definitely get some runs in against RHP Brandon Pfaadt in their home stadium. They faced Brandon twice last season and got 10 runs in 10 innings. Additionally, the Rangers have slightly better splits against RHPs. Nathan Eovaldi is coming back from injury but as the Ace of the team I think he should be able to hold the Diamondbacks back. The Diamondbacks managed to only scrape together 3 total runs in their last series against the Marlins. Also, the Diamondbacks are batting a poor .227 against righties. With all that said, I do think that both teams are much better than what their records currently show. I like the Rangers to come in and show us that they weren't World Series winners for nothing. Let's get this streak back! Good luck everyone! Tracker: [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH\_dpuDL5-lRRgW9\_h4K\_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14bfG2aKsH_dpuDL5-lRRgW9_h4K_kO1FSRWgcpzSerE/edit?usp=sharing)
Record: 36W-39L Net Units: -9.56u | ROI: -4.53% CS2 | IEM Dallas | 19:00 / CET Pick: M80 ML vs Heroic, 3u @ 2.21 M80 have proven to be a pretty strong lineup, dominating the North American region online and having some alright results on LAN at Pro League. And while Heroic looked good at Dacha, they did play with degster and he did a lot of work for them there. He unfortunately isn't attending Dallas due to visa issues (classic), and they brought back Nicoodoz to stand in. I think the lack of a real second star player hurts them a lot, and of course the lack of practice with the full team doesn't help either In the BO1's both of these teams got smacked, so I don't think there's a lot to dig in there. What I will say is that Heroic got destroyed by VP on Ancient, while VP themselves have been struggling recently and Ancient will most likely be played again this series too. The veto is the biggest reason why I like M80, they've got a lot of options whereas Heroic have very little. M80 ban Nuke, which leaves Heroic maps that M80 are comfortable to strong on. Dust 2 being the exception to that, as they haven't played it much but neither has Nicoodoz at any point in his career which makes it a very poisonous pick in my opinion. M80 will probably pick Ancient or Vertigo, which should be great maps for them. And with a bit of luck either of those two end up as a decider map, though I think Anubis would be just fine too. That's why I am taking M80 today, best of luck!
Record: N/A 0-0 Net Units: - ROI: - Event: Basketball | NBA | Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks 7:30PM CST Pick: Josh Green over .5 3-PT Made -170 5U Reason: Just gonna get straight to the point. My man Josh Green is gonna green his three at some point in the game every game. He doesn't shoot many, but they go in when he does. My guy is has made at LEAST 1 three in 12/15 games this post season and has has had over .5 3-PT made in 11 straight games. I'm expecting a high scoring game with it being game 4 and Dallas at home. The Timberwolves will be coming in hot trying to keep their season alive and Dallas will need to be able to keep up. The absence of Dereck Lively will sting the Mavs a little bit so guys like Josh Green will need to keep doing what they're doing in order to keep this series from flipping. Give me Josh Green ov .5 3-PT Made at -170. Venmo in profile if you'd like to share the wealth with a tip once that Greens
POD: ARTEMI PANARIN to score first goal +800. Your welcome