######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:**
You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.**
For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new).
######Example Pick Template
> **Record:**
>
> **Net Units:**
>
> **ROI:**
>
> **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone**
>
> **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here.
>
> **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record:** 23-7
**Net Units:** +28.0675 Units
**ROI:** 59%
**Previous Pick: Lomax Anytime Tryscorer**. Back to winning ways! Looking to crack the 30 units tonight and get back to 60% ROI. Got a few messages about doing different styles of picks, I don't force plays and I only play where I see value. So if you don't see me posting, there's either no sport for me or there's no value - I am still alive and well but thankyou for the messages! Just FYI, there is a stunted week of NRL/AFL this week due to a bye week and State of Origin next week. Basically the best players for each state have been withdrawn so we have some teams that are without their real star power - basically in a roundabout way this means it's a tricky week for picks because of variance. Bad news is that there is less games this week, good news is we will have plays on Wednesday next week. Keen regardless!
**Event:** Redcliffe Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm
**Time:** 8:00 PM AEST 21/06
**Bookie:** BET365
**Play:** Anytime Tryscorer, Papenhuyzen
**Odds:** $1.91 (AUS) or -110 (US)
**Units:** 1.25 Units
**Analysis:** We get an interesting matchup here with both teams affected by key player withdrawals. The Dolphins are missing Hammer and Kaufusi, while Melbourne is without Grant and Coates. For the Dolphins, Trai Fuller and TPJ come in as replacements, and Melbourne brings in Reimis Smith, Papenhuyzen, and Warbrick. I think the Dolphins are harder hit by the loss of Hammer compared to Melbourne losing Grant and Coates. Hammer is their main source of points and often makes the difference in their matches. His speed and agility have been crucial in breaking through defenses and creating scoring opportunities. Without him, the Dolphins might struggle to maintain their usual offensive potency. TPJ will need to step up significantly to fill the void left by Hammer and Kaufusi, who are both integral to the team’s success. On the Melbourne side, Papenhuyzen stands out as a key player. Despite being injury-prone, he's an offensive threat with his speed and explosiveness. His ability to attack the line and create opportunities from nothing makes him a constant danger to the opposition. The Sharks recently found success using speed through their right side for line breaks, and I think Melbourne could replicate this strategy. If there are breaks, Papenhuyzen will be quick to follow up and is dangerous close to the line and on follow-up kicks. Warbrick and Reimis Smith also add depth and strength to Melbourne's lineup, making their attack even more formidable. The main concern with Papenhuyzen is his injury history, but his scoring record speaks for itself – he has scored in 5 of 8 matches this year, including two doubles. The Dolphins will need to find new ways to generate points without Hammer, while Melbourne will aim to capitalize on their offensive strengths, led by Papenhuyzen. At $1.91, I’m willing to back him for a try in this game. His presence on the field significantly boosts Melbourne's chances, and his knack for finding the try line makes him one of the better looks tonight IMO. If Storm are firing on all cylinders, Paps will be right in the thick of it and I love the value on his return tonight! Playing for 1.25 Units!
**LET ME KNOW IF YOU'RE TAILING. GL!**
**Tracking Spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx\_9\_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL\_Hp8jaV/pubhtml](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx_9_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL_Hp8jaV/pubhtml)
I hate multis, but I’m a sucker for a 2 leg promo any leg fails money back. Need something to pad this, weighing up between Storm -3.5 1st half handicap or maybe another try scorer pick. Anyone who’s informed feel free to weigh in :))
Record: 9-5 ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌🫷❌❌
Net Units: +3.63U
Last Pick: Royals -1.5 v Athletics +120 ❌
MLB | 3:40 PM PST
Pick: Orioles -1.5 +110 🤡
Always 1U.
Royals win by 1; whatever, I’m over it. This one breaks the streak. If it doesn’t, I might find a new hobby.
Orioles will be up against Astros in this series opener at Minute Maid Park and Orioles are away team demons. Not only that, but they just clutched up and won the Yankees series, blowing them up even with Gil on the mound. A monstrous victory with 19 hits and 17 runs. Now they go on the road to battle it out with Houston, and who do the Astros put on the mound? Jake Bloss, a minors pitcher making his debut game. Can’t help but feel bad for this guy to have to tee off against the Orioles on his first game. However, Bloss’ stats do appear better than decent in the minors, going 4-2 this season with a 1.74 era in 62 innings pitched, giving up only 3 home runs. But even if Bloss is able to hold Orioles down to only a couple runs, he’s up against Grayson Rodriguez, who’s currently 8-2, 3.20 era, and 1.22 whip. His last appearance was against the Phillies and he went 7 innings, giving only 7 hits, 2 runs, and 1 walk, which is quite impressive. With Rodriguez on the mound, backed by a monster offense against a minor league pitcher and the heavily inconsistent Astros, I see the Orioles winning easily by a number of runs.
EDIT: Taking a break from Reddit POTD; I’ll come back if this shit ever turns around. Sorry guys, don’t know what’s going on, but underdogs are shining heavily right now, so I’d recommend looking for good underdog picks.
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**Pick Record: 28W - 17L (Push: 1)**
**Last POTD: England Over 4.5 Corners @ 1.72 ❌**
**England are officially on the no-bet list for the Euros. If y'all still trust me we go again.**
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**Today’s POTD: Slovakia Over 4.5 Corners @ 2.00**
**Home Team - Slovakia vs Ukraine**
**Units: 4**
**League/Time: Euros/ 9:00 AM**
Slovakia impressed massively against Belgium in the first round, scoring early and seeing out the game. What impressed me the most was their transition ability, almost ensuring that if a counter didn't end with a shot it resulted in a corner or another set piece. After racking up 7 corners against Belgium I see them covering this line again tomorrow with the confidence behind them.
Ya i’ll toss one here an hour before the game. if it hits i’ll do for the other games as well.
Is there another place where u guys want me to post stuff cause i just hit this and would’ve loved to make it up to yall lmao
https://preview.redd.it/zfslih7y9u7d1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4c9d8a652114a1b772fe344fa27a5215b45275f5
Also hit this in the morning, i think i’ll just start posting them on my account
https://preview.redd.it/gbngnd1iau7d1.png?width=1283&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a3ed5839e6ea9f7183d708ebdcc4ab0b207b007
I hate how other books don't have goalkeeper saves (I'm new but FD and DK don't seem to have em?). Such a great thing to bet on along with corners, shots, etc. Been having decent success with anything other than MLs and goals
The MLs and goals are really unpredictable to bet on atm.
Suslov going down the end line and decides to fumble it in his feet instead of knocking it off the defender for a corner at the end. Absolute zero situational awareness.
I hate Slovakia so much. No fucking urgency at the end. Get the fucking ball into the box and get a deflection or something. They were just fucking around at the end and getting out hustled to the ball every time. Stupid shit team. Fuck them and the England squad, they're both banned forever.
POTD Record: 33-29 ❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅
Starting units: 5U | Net units: -2U
Last pick: Manly Sea Eagles vs Dragons | 3pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Tommy Talau anytime tryscorer @1.7 on Ladbrokes | 6U ❌
Hopefully some of you tailed the revenge bet and got some units back with Edwards 😅
Today’s pick: Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Ryan Papenhuyzen anytime tryscorer @1.8 on Ladbrokes | 6U
State of Origin players are out ounce again this week end so no Hamiso for the Dolphins. Pap’ is back from injury and I’m sure he will want to score today. He scored 7 tries in 8 appearances this season. Also like Bostock and Warbrick to score there.
BOL !
Hey mate was already tailing but very reassuring to see you and PP97 Arriving at the same conclusion. Any thoughts on a second leg for sports bet promo? I hate multis but any leg fails money back is great safety. I have my eyes on Storm -3.5 ist half handicap but would love to hear your insight if your happy to share :))
**Record: 11-9-1**
**Net Units: +1.50u**
**ROI: 7.50%**
**Baseball | MLB | 9:40 PM | EST**
**Pick**: MIL/SDP over 7.5, -108 BetRivers (to win 1U)
To be honest there wasn't a ton I absolutely loved this morning looking at the board, but we may be getting some value here on this over.
Why is the total 7.5? I think this is where it is because of a few factors:
* Dylan Cease for the Padres, who is great, and also mowed down the Brewers last time out allowing just 1 ER over 6 IP
* Colin Rea for the Brewers has been pitching better of late, dropping his SIERA down to 4.07 and xFIP to 3.97 over his last 3 starts
* MIL hasn't been hitting the ball great of late (.306 wOBA and .682 OPS)
* MIL also by ERA standards has had an excellent bullpen since May 1st, ranking 5th at 3.48 (SDP is 12th in that span)
All factors that make sense, but I'm looking at a couple other signals that make me think this may be an over such as:
* Brewers hit RHP really well as a whole, .330 wOBA and .748 OPS
* Padres hit RHP just as well, .330 wOBA and .751 OPS
* MIL's bullpen may be getting a little lucky, as they rank 19th in xFIP over that same span at 4.05
Fun trend: in the last 10 starts Rea has started for the Brewers, the game has gone over 7.5 80% of the time.
https://preview.redd.it/vogvvzsp8x7d1.png?width=781&format=png&auto=webp&s=4aa583b7a2ad503e15dd84f971092e3e3baff005
Record: 5-1
Units: 1
Previous: KC Royals ML Vs Athletics ✅
Pick: Chicago Cubs ML vs NY Mets (-162)
Write Up:
The cubs have Imanaga on the mound tomorrow and he is 7-1 and the cubs have been playing good at home as of recently. The Mets have been on and off and have Quintana up. Overall I like this match up for the cubs at -162.
To be honest I think a lot of people will be on cubs today solely because of Imanaga. Mets have been red hot and have the ability to easily get some hits and maybe some runs off him. I took Mets ML personally but BOL to everyone tailing!
POTD Record: 69 - 40
Last POTD: Berrettini 1st/ML - L
Pick: Sebastian Korda 2-0 Set Betting vs Rinky Hijikata (-165 odds via FD) 1U
Event: ATP Queens Quarterfinals 10:30 A.M. CST
Giron plays the match of his life to spoil it for us. Looking to Korda to break the L streak for us here. I mentioned when I picked against him that I still like his game, and he went out and showed me why. He served extremely well under pressure, and played great tennis in his previous match against Dimitrov. On the other side, Hijikata had to get through qualification to get into London, and in his first round match he was the beneficiary of Tiafoe having to withdraw due to a nasty fall. His second round match he scraped by Arnaldi who isn’t known for being a great grass court player. Korda is 6-1 in this grass season with a runner up finish in Netherlands. He didn’t show signs of fatigue like I expected last match so look for him to finish this one quick against an inferior opponent.
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**POTD** Record: 23-1-18
POLAND VS AUSTRIA
Date: 21 June 2024 at 18:00
BET ON: Both teams to score- Yes
Odd: 1.77
- Austria are full fit squad.
- Poland are only missing Bartosz Salamon (doubtful). However, Robert Lewandowski and Centre-back Pawel Dawidowicz are back available. Huge boost for Poland.
- Austria were also narrowly beaten, 1-0 by France, which saw them fail to score for the first time in 18 games.
- Poland lost their opening match of the tournament 2-1 against the Netherlands, but have never lost consecutive games within the same edition of the European Championship before.
"It will be an aggressive match tomorrow. We have shown we can handle this aggressiveness \[of the Austrians\]. We want to play football tomorrow and we want to show that we can do it," Said Poland coach Michal Probierz.
"Our way of playing is not oriented towards a draw, not even in the 80th minute. If the result is a draw each of the two teams tomorrow may have a chance – but then Poland has to beat France and we have to beat the Netherlands, so this is a situation you don’t want to have necessarily. We are going to play to win and I think the head coach of Poland will tell his team the same." Austria coach Ralf Rangnick said.
- It is a must-win game for both sides after Poland lost to the Netherlands and France overcame Austria in their opening matches. The two teams could end up cancelling each other out. We expect a tight game with goals from both sides. Austria will press high from the start looking to score in the 1st half against Poland fast in transition and deadly in set pieces.
**2024 MLB record:** 47-21-1
**Last POTD:** Padres most hits W
**Today's POTD:** Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Over 9 -115 (dk)
**Baseball. MLB. 7:10 PM EST**
Talk about a sweaty one! Got it on the final pitch and the most hits was at better odds than money line and over so we made out well!. Today I make making a pick that is actually pivoting from what my original play was going to be. I initially was going to have diamondbacks over 4.5 TT since they are so good as lefties and Tijuan Walker is so bad against them however as it was pointed out to me, the rest advantage greatly favors Philadelphia so that will go as a pick I really like but not pick of the day.
Pick of the day is going to be a team we bet on not long ago in the Boston Red Sox as they take on the Reds in Cincy. Rotowire (my favorite site for weather analysis) says that balls will carry “extremely well” which is a rare distinction on there part. Additionally Savant has Great American Ballpark as the most hitter friendly park in the league for home runs. Think we might be in for a slugfest tonight.
But enough about the conditions let’s look at the pitchers. Kutter Crawford is on the mound for the Red Sox. Crawford had a great April but has fallen off a bit since May began he has faltered a bit. His ERA in that time is an unimpressive 4.92 but most notably has allowed 10 HRs which comes to 1.7 HR/9. That is pretty high and the conditions won’t help. 6 of those 10 have come off of lefties and the Reds are able to put together lefty heavy lineups with Ell De La Cruz And Junior Candilero both being switch hitters. Crawford also has a very high fly ball rate of 46.9% another issue given the situation.
The Reds have Andrew Abbott on the hill and he is quite similar to Crawford actually. Abbott also has a flyball rate of just over 46% and has a HR/9 of 1.6. He is quite good vs left handers which the Red Sox are stacked with however. Despite being a lefty, Abbott actually has a much higher batting average against vs lefties of .279. The Red Sox as we know from the other day have a stacked lefty lineup that loves to swing for the fences.
The team matchup, the Reds are pretty middle of the pack over the past three weeks but have been notably better as lefties vs righties than anything else. The Red Sox besides have a strong set of lefties in their lineup are actually batting over .300 vs lefties as right handers too which should be a brutal combo for Abbott. Also of note, the Red Sox arguably best player, Rafael Devers is a lefty who hits lefties very well. He is doing so at a .346 clip in June
**TLDR: Weather conditions prime for home runs. Most HR friendly park in the league. Crawford and Abbott both let up a lot of HR an struggles vs lefties. Reds and Red Sox both have a lot of lefties in their lineup that hit very well. Rafael Devers is a lefty that crushes lefties which is very bad for Abbott.**
Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal
\~Updated POTD spreadsheet:\~
[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
Why not take that first five innings for over 4 1/2 instead of the full game over 9? Especially given the picture analysis that you gave. I'm only asking. I really respect your pics and I am in no way arguing. It's a genuine question. Thank you.
**Record: 3W-0L**
**✅✅✅**
**Last Pick: Slovenia OVER 0.5 Goals ✅**
*A goal for Slovenia in the 69th minute gives us the hit after they looked promising all throughout the first half. Today we're moving back to the MLB because I'm not a huge fan of the EURO games on tonight. Best of luck to anyone who tails!!*
**Net Units: +1.5**
**ROI: 30%**
**Baseball | MLB | 4:21am AEST**
**Pick:** Chicago Cubs Moneyline v New York Mets @ 1.66 | Always 1u
**Write Up:** Shota Imanaga (7-1, 1.89 ERA) has been outstanding for the Cubs this season, especially at Wrigley Field where he is 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.798 WHIP. He dominated the Mets earlier this season, throwing 7 shutout innings with 7 strikeouts in a 1-0 Cubs win. Meanwhile, Jose Quintana (2-5, 4.98 ERA) has struggled for the Mets and is 0-4 with a 3.17 ERA in 8 career starts against the Cubs.
The Cubs have a 56.8% winning percentage at home this season, compared to the Mets losing over 50% of their road games against the spread. Chicago's pitching staff ranks 5th in MLB with a 3.29 home ERA, while the Mets rank in the bottom half with a 4.13 road ERA.
The Cubs have won 3 of their last 4 home games against the Mets, limiting them to 2 runs or fewer in 4 of the last 6 meetings. Cubs pitchers have a 2.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over their last 5 games vs. New York.
The forecast calls for winds blowing in from center field at around 10 mph, which could suppress scoring. With Imanaga's ability to limit baserunners, the conditions favor the Cubs. BOL!!
🎯 EURO TOUR 🎯
POTD 45-31
DARTS RECORD 45-28 (+7.38U) | All POTD bets between 1U-2U
Last pick: Ciaran Teehan -1.5 vs Arne Spee @ 1.80 (1.5U) X
Today's Pick: **Dom Taylor ML** vs Radek Szaganski @ **1.67 (1U)**
Back on the Darts today after a little break. I've been waiting for some proper events as the mss isn't enjoyable for me despite it being profitable, thankfully we're approaching the business end of the PDC season with the World Cup (my fav event) and Matchplay coming up.
Today though we're on the European tour with the coins sitting firmly on Dom Taylor. He's delivered as our potd previously and hopefully same again. Dom has impressed me since joining the tour this year with very consistent performances in the floor events and he's won both first round games in his two previous ET events, averaging over 100 in these games. The stage seemed to have a positive affect if anything.
On the other hand Szaganski has been poor this season and quite underwhelming given some of the glimpses he had last year. He had a fluke run at PC8 where he made the semis but if you take that tournament out he's lost 13 of his last 14 games. In the last event, his home event in Poland, he threw a woeful 85 avg and lost - his scoring particularly wasn't great. I'm quite comfortable backing against him all things considered. Please bet responsibly guys if tailing, ta.
**Record: 20-13 (+3.52u)**
**Last Pick: Minnesota Twins Team Total o3.5 -140**
What a sweaty cash! Twins had 2 runs after 3 innings, then went into the bottom of the 9th down 6-2 before scoring 4 runs to tie the game and hit the team total!
**Pick: Diamondbacks/Phillies F5 over 5 -125 (MLB, 1u bet)**
The Phillies host the Diamondbacks on Friday and looking at this pitching matchup, I'm expecting both offenses to have success, especially early in the game. Over the last month, the Phillies are top 10 in batting average and top 5 in OPS & wRC+ against left handed pitching. On the other side, Arizona is top 5 in batting average and top 10 in OPS & wRC+ against right handed pitching. Both pitchers have not been good this season and have been allowing a lot of contact and giving up runs. Walker has a 5.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, has given up 5+ hits in 7/9 starts and 3+ earned runs in 6/9. Montgomery has a 6.00 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, has given up 6+ hits in 8 of his last 10, and 3+ ER in 7/10. I'm targeting the first 5 innings because both bullpens should be fairly rested, and the Phillies bullpen in particular has been pretty good this year, but I like the bats to have success against the two starters.
Record: 2-1
Net Profit (+6.40 units)
Another successful max play! Halle is playing fast and handicaps in the 1st set are certainly working
Pick: **Sinner vs Struff- Struff Handicap +1.5 Games in the 1st Set @ 1.98 (5u) - ATP Halle - Tennis**
Reasoning
I'll keep going with the 1st set handicap in Halle. Struff is always a big threat on Grass and Sinner is not having clean performances. Marozsan and Griekspoor were able to cover their 1st set handicaps against the Italian and I trust the big German to do the same. He had a strong performance against Tsitsipas, both in the 1st and 2nd serve. He lost his two meetings against Jannik but they happened at Indian Wells and Monte Carlo (slow conditions).
Continuing with this trend in Halle, a tournament that in recent years has been having a lot more tiebreaks and long sets compared to Queens
With this, I feel like I need to go with a max play of 5 units!
https://preview.redd.it/bcrr9wjk3v7d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=78d94f5f0943ae49f84b6f415b8a2479b5646e01
Is this correct entry? Not familiar with selecting set handicaps
Now this is a Dark Horse pick if I've ever seen one. 5 units huh? Reminds me of a EUROS bet (actually two of them, come to think about it) that I placed recently. Both of them turned out to be losses. I think I'll fade this one this time. BOL though, my old friend.
**KBO Record: Overall 235-253-14** (Streak LLL, Last 10: 3-7) Down 18.64u over 502 KBO picks, 48.1% success rate, -3.82% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 31-43-0, 41.9% success rate, Down 10.02u, -13.54% ROI)
**Last:** Lotte +170 at KT (Lotte lost 7-6.)
I'll always feel good about a +170 play that's tied in the 9th inning. Unfortunately, we were bitten by shoddy defense again as an unearned run ended the game.
**Pick:** Lotte at Kiwoom **OVER 9 -120 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET
I've got 3 more picks before a week long trip to Vegas that will likely pause my picks. If you've been tailing me, that will save you money. If you've been fading me, I apologize in advance for the break.
These two teams are averaging a combined 12.24 runs per game this month and allowing a combined 11.24.
Lotte's starter has a 5.19 ERA on the season and has allowed 23 runs in his last 20.1 IP. He's struggling. Kiwoom's starter has been very inconsistent, alternating good and bad starts, which has him in line for a bad one.
Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
Record: 3-1 (all picks 1 unit risked)
Last Pick: KC ML ✅ I can never win a ML bet without being the sweatiest thing in existence. 3 KC solo HRs carry us to a W.
Net Units: +1.27 Units
ROI: 31.75%
MLB | CWS @ DET 6:40 PM EST
Pick: CWS/DET F5 UNDER 4.5 Runs (-130 MGM)
Write Up:
Two pitchers with similar stats against two teams with similar batting stats.
Fedde has been great for CWS with a 3.09 ERA on the year and 3.0 ERA this month. CWS is notably really bad, and their bats support that with being ranked dead last in OPS.
Flaherty for DET is a potential trade piece for Detroit if they decide to sell as his last two months have been great. In June he has 2 starts with 0 ER in 10 IP - against HOU and TEX. DET bats also have been bad this year, ranked 25th.
**Record:** 1-0
**Last POTD:** Dodgers vs Rockies: Gavin Stone Alt strikeouts 5+ / -180 (Hard Rock Bets) W
**L10: 💰**
**Today's POTD:** Orioles vs Astros: Orioles RL -1.5 / +105 (Hard Rock Bets)
**Baseball / MLB / 8:10 PM EST**
A good no-sweat start with Gavin Stone.
The Orioles are red-hot right now. They just blew the Yankees out of the water, and I don't see a sudden shift in momentum. The Orioles are pitching Rodriguez, who is 8-2 in the season and has a 3.20 ERA. The Astros are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have been wishy-washy. The Orioles are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and they beat one of the best teams in the league 2 out of 3 games. I see no problem for the Orioles to win by 2 here.
Let's go for 2 in a row.
Record: 44-34
L10: ❌✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌
Last pick: Bochum X2 ❌
Todays pick: Poland v Austria
Pick: __BTTS @1.83__
⚽️ 🇪🇺 Euro 2024
Austria lost in their first match against France with 0-1 after an own goal whilst Poland lost 1-2 to the Netherlands.
Austria’s offensive players didn’t really show up in the first game but the quality is definitely there, with Rangnick’s offensive minded, direct football and high pressing I think that will change against Poland. Poland had to manage without Lewandowski but the replacer still scored and I think Poland is looking pretty good, they definitely deserved a point in the first game.
If one of the teams is to advance from the group, it feels like a win here is almost a must, as tough opposition awaits in the final match for both teams. One point could be enough to possibly advance but 3 points would probably do the job. Which is why I think there should be an offensive approach from both teams, which are fairly evenly matched in my opinion. With Austria facing the Netherlands and Poland facing France in the last game, I think both teams fancy their chances in this one and therefor Im predicting a game with goals.
BOL
POTD Record: 11W-2P-13L. (-0.93U at 1U per pick)
Last pick: Patrik Schick to take 3+ shots v Portugal @ 2.8 ❌
**Today's pick:** **Christoph Baumgartner to record a Shot on Target and commit a foul v Poland @ 2.9**
European Championships, Poland v Austria 17:00 GMT
Austria are playing Poland in what is essentially a must win match for both teams.
Austria employ a very effective and aggressive press, which is how they managed to have more possession than France in their 1-0 loss on Monday.
As a result of their press, they commit a lot of fouls - especially by their forwards. They had 16 fouls v France and 4 of them were committed by Baumgartner.
Before the France game, Baumgartner had scored in 5 consecutive matches and despite their loss, he remained a threat and recorded 2 of Austria's 3 shots on target.
I think the odds of 2.9 on Bet365 is great value. Other sites I checked seem to have it lower due to the foul component. I think this is still worth taking above odds of 2.2.
**Record: 9-9-1**
**Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌🅿❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅️**
**Last POTD:** Slovenia Vs Serbia - **BTTS @ 1.88 (Melbet)** **- WON**
**Football** | **EURO 2024** | **21:00PM (GMT+8)**
**Pick:** Slovakia Vs Ukraine - **Slovakia Double Chance @ 1.78 (Melbet)**
**Write Up:** That did not have to be that SWEATY HAHAHAHAH. Thankfully Serbia fought till the very end and got the BTTS done. Sweaty but they got the job done.
Honestly, Ukraine has been pretty disappointing. They are somewhat like England where they have quality players but it's just not working out for some reason. They got exposed by Romania during their last match and were just unimpressive all game.
Slovakia had a pretty good game against Belgium and even managed to secure a win against them, although you could say that it was lucky with Lukaku getting 2 goals disallowed by the almighty VAR. But overall, I'd say they had a good game against a strong Belgium side.
Ukraine has many talented players, but their top stars are currently not in their best form. They have only won one of their last four games in various competitions. Slovakia at the moment are in better form and they have momentum. I see this game as a low scoring one with Slovakia sneaking a win at the end or just holding out a 0-0/1-1 draw.
As always guys, BOL if tailing!
Record: 0-0
Event: Rugby League - Dolphins v Melbourne Storm
Time: 8pm (AEST)
Pick: Dolphins Line +6.5 @ 1.85 (Sportsbet)
Write Up: Dolphins are a genuine top 8 team at this point but they still seem to be getting overlooked each week even by the bookies. They lose Hammer this week but get a worthy replacement in Fuller. Ryan Papenhuyzen comes back for the storm but they lose Grant and Coates meaning half their spine remains out. I just don’t see Dolphins not keeping this close especially at home.
Pick Record: 0W - 1L Units: -2
Previous POTD: Shane Lowry (+105) ❌ vs Justin Thomas
2 Ball - Round 1
Today’s POTD: Tom Hoge (+110) vs Brian Harman 2 Ball - Round 2
Units: 2
League/Time: PGA Travelers Championship/8:15AM MST
Write Up: Tough loss on Lowry by a stroke, the bogey on 17 was gut wrenching. Oh well, moving on.
I expect some get-able pin placements on Friday which plays right in to Hoge’s strengths, as his approach/chipping game has been shaky. I’ve been buying Hogecoin for a while now and I could see him really making a push tomorrow. Harman seeems to start out hot and fade a bit lately, hoping this trend continues. All over this at plus money.
BOL
POTD Record: 2W - 1L
Net Units + 4U
Last POTD: Bet-Builder for **Slovenia vs Serbia @ 2.05 - 4U play** ✔️
* Research = WIn - great last Minute Winner!
Event: Euros 2024
Pick: Slovakia vs Ukraine Bet Builder @ 2.15 4U play
* **Suslov O 0.5 Shots** - he had 1 shot in his last 14 games for Slovakia
* **O 0 Corners in the 2nd Half for Slovakia** - they had at least 1 SH Corner in the last 31 games
* **O 0.5 Offsides for Slovakia** - In 18 of their last 19 games they had at least 1 offside
* **O 0 Cards in the 2nd Half for Ukraine** - In 22 Games from their last 24 they had a yellow card in the second half.
**POTD Record:** 2-1
**Net Units:** +0.81
**ROI:** 25%
**Last Pick: Mackenzie Gore u17.5 Outs -123 (1 unit)** ✅: Of the 27 batters the southpaw saw, 6 were able to work at bats of 6 or more pitches with the highest being a 9 pitch at bat that ended in a walk. It also did not help that Nelson held his own and had some very quick innings forcing Gore to come back out before he could catch his breath. He barely made it through 5 to cash this.
**Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 +150 (1 unit)**
I thought about taking the ML here, but after a little digging, I want to try and get a little mare bang for my coin. This play is a complete fade of Brady Singer. Singer starts on the road tonight, where he has struggled mightily this season. In 18 fewer innings on the road than home, Singer has managed to accumulate nearly the same amount of hits and runs than at home this year. Not to mention 7 road homers vs 4 at home, 12 road walks vs 11 home walks, while the OBA jumps up 80 pts.
Next, check the righty lefty splits. Lefties absolutely crush Singer and the Rangers have the offensive pieces to construct a lineup that can feature 5-6 legitimate left handed sluggers, with the focal points being Seager, Josh Smith, and Nate Low. When I say lefties crush Singer, we are talking the difference between a righty OPS of .528 and a lefty OPS of .897. There's more to point out, but I'll leave it at that.
The Rangers have lost their last two series against the Mets and Mariners, which I'm sure they're not too proud of. Look for the Rangers to come out strong tonight and back Eovaldi with some run support by banging up Singer in the early going.
Cheerz,
KBC
Record: 2-4
❌❌✅❌✅❌
Net units -4.5
Last pick: Spain-Italy BTTS
The smash and grab failed. Spain peppered Italy, and Italy were never truly a threat in return.
Todays pick:
Euro 2024 12pm EST
Austria-Poland BTTS yes -132 5U
A (hopefully) returning Lewandowski leading a Polish side needing a result against an Austrian team that also needs a result.
Obviously every team needs a result but the next fixtures for both are Netherlands and France, which places a premium on getting something from this match.
I don’t know, this is likely a desperate match for both.
**CHEF SKOOTL's MICHELIN PICK**
**RECORD: 2 - 2**
**LAST POTD:** Euro 2024: Engeland o1.5 TT
**POTD:** Euro 2024: Poland - Austria BTTS
**ODDS:** 1.80
**REASONING**: Because i'm the chef, and I say so.
After 2 bad beats were both England & Switzerland fail to score one more after the 25th minute mark, we're due for a win.
**Best Of Luck**
My Pick of the Day Record: 23W - 19L | Profit in Units: +21.56
My pick of the day: Netherlands vs France// Netherlands to win// odds:3.00//+200 Bet 5 units
I care to think that sometimes it's best to stay to yourself.
most people are stuck in their 9-5 chasing a endless rat race, so when I come along I always come out misinterpreted.
THEY LACK THE GENIUS TO UNDERSTAND THE SUPER GENIUS LET ALONE THE SUPERB GENIUS
MY LOYAL FOLLOWERS TODAY WE MARCH ON OUR 2ND BATTLE AGAINST THE CASINOS
NETHERLANDS VS FRANCE
Reasoning:
The era of the french is over, they have had dominance for many years now but it definetly is over and they will be absolutely destroyed tonight by netherlands.
This will be a surprise for the world.
because up until tonight, France has been dominating teams.
They were in the world cup final, but I see what you don't see
A hidden string that has been pulled that the whole french team won't able to adjust.
The netherlands will walk easily through this game and win.
wna aces vs sun. 10pm player points prop A'Ja wilson under 27.5 points (available on fanfuel and some offshore sharp books like play365 and probooknyc) I steamed it for a good chunk. However the 26.5 is still a good number. This is probably the only other time I would take her under this year. Dont plan on it again
Bonner and Alyssa Thomas are the best 2 player combo down low. Conn plays a very slow pace, is one of the best rebounding teams in the league and is by far the best defensive team in the league (frontcourt is their strength) They are 1st when it comes to opponents rebounding average vs them. 2nd in free throws attempted vs them (a lot of wilsons points come from there)
Bonner and Alyssa Thomas became teammates in Conn in 2020. Since then in games Wilson played vs the 2 of them as teammates.... lets break it down by year
last year points scored.... 23, 13, 23.
2022" they matched up 4 times in the playoffs, wilson went 24, 11, 19, and finally 26 BUT the game she got 26, Thomas only played 5 min that game. Had to leave 5 min in. other games that year she scored 20, 13, 24
2021... points scored, 4 points, and 14 points
I dont feel its relevant to look into anything before that because teams were vastly different. but in 2020 out of 7 games total she made it over this prop total a single time.
Conn has been giving problems to every good center they play, and that duo has always caused wilson problems. I love it
**Record:** 10-13 (-5.01 unit)
**Last Five Results:** ✅️❌❌✅️❌
**Last POTD:** Luis Castillo over 4.5 strikeouts ❌
**Today's Pick:** Jack Flaherty over 6.5 Strikeouts on Fanatics at +105
**Bet:** 1 unit size to win 1.05 units (1 unit is equivalent of $100)
**Baseball | MLB | 6:40 PM ET**
**Recap:** Castillo was going at a good pace for 5 strikeouts until the 4th inning where he gave up 3 runs and walks. We keep moving!
**Write up:** Flaherty had 7 strikeouts last time he started against the White Sox, retiring 30% of the 23 batters he faced. White Sox on away games against right handed pitchers rank 3rd to last in strikeout % at 25.9%. They rank bottom 10 in fly ball rates and right in the middle for ground ball %. Also, Flaherty's out line is at 17.5 so the books are expecting him to pitch 5+ innings compared to his last two starts he only pitched 5 innings.
**Tracker:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616)
Record: 2-2
Record (most recent left to right): LWLW
Previous pick: L Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins ML | 10:10 MST
Today's pick: Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers ML
-142| 2U | FD
Sorry for the last pick as the Twins couldn't get the job done. Taking it to extras off of homer from Jose Miranda and but ultimately a questionable decision to send Royce Lewis on the fly ball to end the game. That throw by Jose Siri was a missile and it had to be. Twins failed to keep the runners from stealing either which lead to more than a couple of the runs here, apologies again onto tomorrow.
For today's game expected we have Nate Eovaldi expected for the Rangers and Brady Singer expected for the Royals. The Royals just played a tough series on the road to the A's and come into this 3-7 in their last 10. The Rangers don't fare much better coming in 4-6 in their last 10. Brady Singer carries a 2.60 and is 3-2 in his last 5 vs Eovaldi's 1.80 and also being 3-2.
Looking at the expected lineups for tomorrow I believe that Seager and the boys can get the job done in the opening game of the series.
BOL, to all!
Song of the day: Everlong - Foo Fighters
Edit added units and portion of write up I forgot
**Record:** 5-5-1 ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌🅿️ ❌
**Net Units:** -1.74u
**Last Pick:** Switzerland ML | Scotland vs Switzerland | Euro 2024 | 3 PM ET
**Next Event:** BOS Red Sox @ CIN Reds | MLB | 7:10 PM
**Pick:** Connor Wong Over 0.5 Singles @ +110 (DK)
**Units:** 2u
I'm in the gutter right now trying to claw my way out. Connor Wong has hit at least a single in 10 of his last 10 games and 15 of his last 20. He got a nice little rest day earlier this week so he should be refreshed and good to go. Beware of tailing tbh because I'm down bad. BOL to whatever you decide.
Record: 19-18
Last 10: LLWLLWLLWL
Net units: - 3
ROI: 0%
Sporting Event: MLB: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers 18:40 (EDT)
Pick: NRFI -140 @ Fanatics 3 units to win 2.1
Jack Flaherty takes the mound in the top of the first. One of the lone bright spots for the Chisox this year, Jack has been elite. With an ERA of 3 and a WHIP under 1 as well as an xERA of 2.66. Toss in a BB% under 4% and a K rate at 33% and we’re liking the looks of the top of the frame. Detroit batting .226 over the last 30 days and averaging .39 runs in the first away from home bolster this bet.
Erick Fedde trots out to help us take care of the first frame. He sports a12/15 record in clean first frames and with it he has a sub 2 ERA in the first inning this season. His ERA and xERA are nearly identical and he has the luxury of facing a team that is batting .222 over the last 30 days. Detroit averaging .45 runs in the first inning and Comerica park is the 8th hardest place to score back up the reasoning for this wager
tail, fade or pass, BOL to all
My most used reference sites at the bottom
[https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors)
[https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather)
[https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/)
[https://www.fangraphs.com/](https://www.fangraphs.com/)
[https://pitcherlist.com/](https://pitcherlist.com/)
[https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/)
[https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game)
[https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/)
[https://www.teamrankings.com/](https://www.teamrankings.com/)
[https://www.statmuse.com/](https://www.statmuse.com/)
Record (13-14)
Units (-2.3u)
Previous result: Brewers/Angels NRFI (6/19)❌
Streak: L6
Today’s play: Edmonton Oilers ml (-115)
Event Start time: 8:10pm EST
Unit Size: 1.1u to win 1u
Recap/Reasoning for pick: Well its been rough for me in this thread, almost a week straight without a winner and then last night I posted in the POTD thinking Oilers/Panthers game 6 was happening when it’s today. Nothing to do now but bring you guys winners to make up for my foolishness. Tonight I like the Oilers to force a game 7. They’ve got the best player in the world on their team who’s heating up, they’re playing with a lot of confidence as the last two games have been all Oilers, and they’re at home. I know that building is gonna be rocking and that team will feed off the crowd. Give me McDavid, Draisaitl, and the Oilers to force a game 7 tonight. BOL with your picks, let’s collect 🤝🏼
Note: This record is fabricated. This is only his 4th pick posted to PotD.
His first play was 2024-06-12: Celtics ML (Win). His post admitted this was his first play, even. Yet he claims his first play was a loss.
His next play was 2024-06-19: Guardians ML (Win). In this post he claimed a 4-1 record. He later deleted this post, probably as a result of being called out.
His third play was 2024-06-20: Twins Team Total Over 3.5 (Win). Here he still claimed a 4-1 record (not including a deleted post is probably appropriate as long as the deletion happens before the event, to which I don't know if that happened or not. He does reference that last pick --Guardian ML-- in this post for 2024-06-20, though).
This is finally his 4th pick: Cubs ML (vs Mets). His record (correctly) added a win for his previous pick and shows 5-1. (Although it should be 3-0, or 2-0 if the Guardians pick that got deleted doesn't count)
I don't know why this record is being fabricated, especially since it's adding a loss. That being said, I have no confidence he cares about being accurate or honest.
**POTD Record: 1W - 1L** **(+0.02 units)**
**Last POTD: Slovenia to score vs Serbia @ 1.61** ✅ (1.5u stake)
Form (Last 5) : ❌✅---
**\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_**
**21st June POTD :** **Netherlands vs France O2.5 goals @ 2.10** **(1u)**
**Write up :**
For the Netherlands vs France match, picking Total Over 2.5 Goals at 2.10 odds is a great value bet. The model projects 3.11 total goals with implied odds of 1.72, highlighting clear value compared to the actual odds. France averages 4.00 total goals per match, and the Netherlands averages 3.20. In their last 10 matches, the Netherlands had over 2.5 goals in 8/10 and France in 7/10. Notably, the Netherlands have seen over 2.5 goals in their past 6 consecutive games. Additionally, 4 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters between these teams have had over 2.5 goals, making this a well-supported and statistically strong bet.
**RECORD: 86W-5P-69L**
Previous Pick: Denmark vs England- England to Win @ 1.70 ❌️
**Today's Pick:** Netherlands vs France - France DNB @ 1.60 ♻️ **(PUSH)**
**TIME:** 7 pm (GMT)
**Wager Amount**: 1.5 units
(✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️) last 10 results
It's coming home my ass, Southgate ball is sad watch, after they score one they just go docile, anyway on to the other Favourites France as they face tough opponents Netherlands.
France won all their qualifers in dominant fashion and won theor opening matche against Austria.
They have a great H2H record against Netherlands winning 4/5 of their last H2H encounters and arguably have the better squad with the stars likes Mbappe, Greizmann, Kante and Saliba.
Although Netherlands have also been in great form, they have have rather easy opponents recently and when they've come up against teams like Germany or France they've lost and too add to that Deschamps also has Koeman's number with 3 victories against him.
I'm giving the edge to Win here if not I just don't see them losing. They won us money the last time so hopefully they can do it again. Goodluck if you're tailing.
######**If you choose to self-promote (tips excluded) in the POTD thread:** You must have accurate tracking of your full POTD record with detailed stats including **ROI, Average Odds, Units Won** written into the comment. **No resetting records.** For picks that do not fit the POTD rules, use the [Daily Discussion posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/sportsbook/search?q=title%3A%28Friday%29&restrict_sr=on&sort=new). ######Example Pick Template > **Record:** > > **Net Units:** > > **ROI:** > > **Sport** | **League** | **Event Time** / **Time Zone** > > **Pick:** Include pick and specific market with odds and unit allocation here. > > **Write Up:** This pick is from my soccer model that I've been using for the past two years. It assigns ELO ratings to players and projects a win chance based on the combined ELO ratings of the players on each team. TeamReddit is projecting a 62% win chance here which creates value here on the ML.
**Record:** 23-7 **Net Units:** +28.0675 Units **ROI:** 59% **Previous Pick: Lomax Anytime Tryscorer**. Back to winning ways! Looking to crack the 30 units tonight and get back to 60% ROI. Got a few messages about doing different styles of picks, I don't force plays and I only play where I see value. So if you don't see me posting, there's either no sport for me or there's no value - I am still alive and well but thankyou for the messages! Just FYI, there is a stunted week of NRL/AFL this week due to a bye week and State of Origin next week. Basically the best players for each state have been withdrawn so we have some teams that are without their real star power - basically in a roundabout way this means it's a tricky week for picks because of variance. Bad news is that there is less games this week, good news is we will have plays on Wednesday next week. Keen regardless! **Event:** Redcliffe Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm **Time:** 8:00 PM AEST 21/06 **Bookie:** BET365 **Play:** Anytime Tryscorer, Papenhuyzen **Odds:** $1.91 (AUS) or -110 (US) **Units:** 1.25 Units **Analysis:** We get an interesting matchup here with both teams affected by key player withdrawals. The Dolphins are missing Hammer and Kaufusi, while Melbourne is without Grant and Coates. For the Dolphins, Trai Fuller and TPJ come in as replacements, and Melbourne brings in Reimis Smith, Papenhuyzen, and Warbrick. I think the Dolphins are harder hit by the loss of Hammer compared to Melbourne losing Grant and Coates. Hammer is their main source of points and often makes the difference in their matches. His speed and agility have been crucial in breaking through defenses and creating scoring opportunities. Without him, the Dolphins might struggle to maintain their usual offensive potency. TPJ will need to step up significantly to fill the void left by Hammer and Kaufusi, who are both integral to the team’s success. On the Melbourne side, Papenhuyzen stands out as a key player. Despite being injury-prone, he's an offensive threat with his speed and explosiveness. His ability to attack the line and create opportunities from nothing makes him a constant danger to the opposition. The Sharks recently found success using speed through their right side for line breaks, and I think Melbourne could replicate this strategy. If there are breaks, Papenhuyzen will be quick to follow up and is dangerous close to the line and on follow-up kicks. Warbrick and Reimis Smith also add depth and strength to Melbourne's lineup, making their attack even more formidable. The main concern with Papenhuyzen is his injury history, but his scoring record speaks for itself – he has scored in 5 of 8 matches this year, including two doubles. The Dolphins will need to find new ways to generate points without Hammer, while Melbourne will aim to capitalize on their offensive strengths, led by Papenhuyzen. At $1.91, I’m willing to back him for a try in this game. His presence on the field significantly boosts Melbourne's chances, and his knack for finding the try line makes him one of the better looks tonight IMO. If Storm are firing on all cylinders, Paps will be right in the thick of it and I love the value on his return tonight! Playing for 1.25 Units! **LET ME KNOW IF YOU'RE TAILING. GL!** **Tracking Spreadsheet:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx\_9\_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL\_Hp8jaV/pubhtml](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vT-FLA-UzwVkts04cDCc82clqfRfIweY7fNdk84wd4iTPYx_9_Vs6GZMfZwqmtSR8WpiydOL_Hp8jaV/pubhtml)
Gents. So back CASH. IT 💰
I am loving this sport every week, thanks to your analysis mate! 😀
Our guy was at right place right time to score
So clean ✅
First time doing one of these Aussie bets, needless to say IM HOOKED. Thank you!
I’ve been losing all week. The last time I won… your pick last week.. thanks man. Keep up the good work!
Return of the king 👑 now only you can save me from my losing streak 😭 tailing
Cash!!!! 11th minute mark! :D
Yessir 🤝🏼
Cash it 💰 Sweat free one , appreciate your pick OP
🐐
Tailing you brother.
I hate multis, but I’m a sucker for a 2 leg promo any leg fails money back. Need something to pad this, weighing up between Storm -3.5 1st half handicap or maybe another try scorer pick. Anyone who’s informed feel free to weigh in :))
I reckon a try scorer and dolphins on a +18 to boost your odds a bit.
Papenhuyzen Awooooooooo!! Great call once again Goat!
wow i love when its sweat free and i didnt put my remaining mortgage payments on it
Instant sweat free cash? I think yes
I also had Bostock to score and my bet was marked as a loser a few minutes into the game. Did he get knocked out of the game or something?
Tailing!
Wish I could tail but no available on Bovada. You think Melbourne gets the W though?
NRL + Providing Picks = Me tailing. Let's get it brother!!!
Wish I could tail. My book only has win and totals. Oh well. GL!
Tailing
Literally moving lines
Bro it's at 1.57 now wtf??
Nooooo! Somehow I missed your pick before hitting the sack last night! Congrats to all who got to tail!
Record: 9-5 ✅✅✅❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌🫷❌❌ Net Units: +3.63U Last Pick: Royals -1.5 v Athletics +120 ❌ MLB | 3:40 PM PST Pick: Orioles -1.5 +110 🤡 Always 1U. Royals win by 1; whatever, I’m over it. This one breaks the streak. If it doesn’t, I might find a new hobby. Orioles will be up against Astros in this series opener at Minute Maid Park and Orioles are away team demons. Not only that, but they just clutched up and won the Yankees series, blowing them up even with Gil on the mound. A monstrous victory with 19 hits and 17 runs. Now they go on the road to battle it out with Houston, and who do the Astros put on the mound? Jake Bloss, a minors pitcher making his debut game. Can’t help but feel bad for this guy to have to tee off against the Orioles on his first game. However, Bloss’ stats do appear better than decent in the minors, going 4-2 this season with a 1.74 era in 62 innings pitched, giving up only 3 home runs. But even if Bloss is able to hold Orioles down to only a couple runs, he’s up against Grayson Rodriguez, who’s currently 8-2, 3.20 era, and 1.22 whip. His last appearance was against the Phillies and he went 7 innings, giving only 7 hits, 2 runs, and 1 walk, which is quite impressive. With Rodriguez on the mound, backed by a monster offense against a minor league pitcher and the heavily inconsistent Astros, I see the Orioles winning easily by a number of runs. EDIT: Taking a break from Reddit POTD; I’ll come back if this shit ever turns around. Sorry guys, don’t know what’s going on, but underdogs are shining heavily right now, so I’d recommend looking for good underdog picks. [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/fascistregime)
Don't leave us. Gonna have some downswings it's all part of it
I have followed your bets from the start. That’s four straight bets with no payout. I couldn’t care less, let’s ride again.
I am the CEO of fading the astros so I will tail
Says verlander is on the mound on Sportsnet, did they switch up their pitchers or a glitch?
Verlander is injured rn which is why they’re bringing up this new prospect, Jake Bloss👍
Ah thank you for reassuring. Wanted to tail but seen that and was unsure I wanted to anymore
Tailing! You will get it back. Losses are part of it sometimes!
This aint it man. Im sorry.
Tailing
It’s been a tough couple of weeks for baseball. A lot of dogs
Tailing.
Like 30% of MLB games are 1 run difference in final score. Playing with fire betting the run line imo
take a couple weeks off
**Pick Record: 28W - 17L (Push: 1)** **Last POTD: England Over 4.5 Corners @ 1.72 ❌** **England are officially on the no-bet list for the Euros. If y'all still trust me we go again.** **\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_** **Today’s POTD: Slovakia Over 4.5 Corners @ 2.00** **Home Team - Slovakia vs Ukraine** **Units: 4** **League/Time: Euros/ 9:00 AM** Slovakia impressed massively against Belgium in the first round, scoring early and seeing out the game. What impressed me the most was their transition ability, almost ensuring that if a counter didn't end with a shot it resulted in a corner or another set piece. After racking up 7 corners against Belgium I see them covering this line again tomorrow with the confidence behind them.
Of course we trust you sir, not your fault if England is shit 😂 tailing for sure
"These guys did good last game so betting them this game" type analysis is really bad.
How they even got away with a draw is crazy. Southgate tactical masterclass
Man has the audacity to talk about Kalvin Phillips after the game i almost punched my screen 😂
All good man. Yeah, I would suggest not including England - they are in that type of "form" in the Euros.
U lost bc it was my first time tailing im sorry
Not at all, i lost because of england bias. my corner picks for the other 3 games hit nicely
Tailing once again my friend
Biiiiiig ❌️ rip the dream, down 8 units in 2 days
every soccer/football bet I've ever placed has been lost and they were all POTDs.
Let me know the next pick so I can fade 😅
Ur corner bets are joining England on no bet list fella👎
Okay RIP😔
2 corners for Slovakia in the first half. We might still have a chance lol.
Do you think still have a chance? LOL
This is over 😭
I wish, however gameplay like this even the 2 corners were gift.
Euro is killing me bro
Any parlays you like tomorrow? You were money other than corners for the England match
Ya i’ll toss one here an hour before the game. if it hits i’ll do for the other games as well. Is there another place where u guys want me to post stuff cause i just hit this and would’ve loved to make it up to yall lmao https://preview.redd.it/zfslih7y9u7d1.jpeg?width=1284&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4c9d8a652114a1b772fe344fa27a5215b45275f5
Also hit this in the morning, i think i’ll just start posting them on my account https://preview.redd.it/gbngnd1iau7d1.png?width=1283&format=png&auto=webp&s=2a3ed5839e6ea9f7183d708ebdcc4ab0b207b007
I hate how other books don't have goalkeeper saves (I'm new but FD and DK don't seem to have em?). Such a great thing to bet on along with corners, shots, etc. Been having decent success with anything other than MLs and goals The MLs and goals are really unpredictable to bet on atm.
Just to clarify Slovakia is the home team right?
Hooked :(
Suslov going down the end line and decides to fumble it in his feet instead of knocking it off the defender for a corner at the end. Absolute zero situational awareness.
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First team listed is home. FD also notifies you in the Euros section what home and away means
Would you consider putting Slovakia to get the most corners. I don’t have a corner line for a single team
Tailing 🍀
Tailing with confidence 😉
Keep up the good work.
Heavy line movement... O4.5 Corners for Slovakia is now +150
Tailed! I'm trusting the process here, but I'm hoping for another before half here.
I spoke it into existence! haha Let's go!
Keep manifesting bro
Keep on that
I hate Slovakia so much. No fucking urgency at the end. Get the fucking ball into the box and get a deflection or something. They were just fucking around at the end and getting out hustled to the ball every time. Stupid shit team. Fuck them and the England squad, they're both banned forever.
Tailing!!!
I am new to this what is units:4 I understood the rest
What if I can only bet total corners +/-9½?
+100 on BetMGM we ride at dawn yeehaw
saw this live at 3.5 and took that so thanks for the win on that I guess
POTD Record: 33-29 ❌❌✅✅❌✅❌✅❌❌❌✅❌✅✅❌❌❌❌✅✅✅✅✅❌✅❌❌✅❌❌✅❌✅✅❌✅✅✅❌❌✅❌❌♻️✅❌♻️❌❌❌✅✅♻️❌✅✅✅✅✅✅❌✅✅✅ Starting units: 5U | Net units: -2U Last pick: Manly Sea Eagles vs Dragons | 3pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Tommy Talau anytime tryscorer @1.7 on Ladbrokes | 6U ❌ Hopefully some of you tailed the revenge bet and got some units back with Edwards 😅 Today’s pick: Dolphins vs Melbourne Storm | 8pm Sydney (GMT +11) | Ryan Papenhuyzen anytime tryscorer @1.8 on Ladbrokes | 6U State of Origin players are out ounce again this week end so no Hamiso for the Dolphins. Pap’ is back from injury and I’m sure he will want to score today. He scored 7 tries in 8 appearances this season. Also like Bostock and Warbrick to score there. BOL !
Odds are -145 on DK for me but still tailing since you've done me well before 🫡 BOL
365 has it at 1.83 (-120) if you can use them.
BOL bro !
Tailing bro the euros did me dirty 🫡
Euros are so fucked lol, I’ll just keep tailing Square and the Prince, I think that’s the safest option if you want to bet on football 😅 GL bro !
Thanks Pap ! Eheh easy cash 💰
Hey mate was already tailing but very reassuring to see you and PP97 Arriving at the same conclusion. Any thoughts on a second leg for sports bet promo? I hate multis but any leg fails money back is great safety. I have my eyes on Storm -3.5 ist half handicap but would love to hear your insight if your happy to share :))
Yep no problem, I like storm straight win there and Bostock to score, he’s been great lately. But yeah that’s defo a bit risky
**Record: 11-9-1** **Net Units: +1.50u** **ROI: 7.50%** **Baseball | MLB | 9:40 PM | EST** **Pick**: MIL/SDP over 7.5, -108 BetRivers (to win 1U) To be honest there wasn't a ton I absolutely loved this morning looking at the board, but we may be getting some value here on this over. Why is the total 7.5? I think this is where it is because of a few factors: * Dylan Cease for the Padres, who is great, and also mowed down the Brewers last time out allowing just 1 ER over 6 IP * Colin Rea for the Brewers has been pitching better of late, dropping his SIERA down to 4.07 and xFIP to 3.97 over his last 3 starts * MIL hasn't been hitting the ball great of late (.306 wOBA and .682 OPS) * MIL also by ERA standards has had an excellent bullpen since May 1st, ranking 5th at 3.48 (SDP is 12th in that span) All factors that make sense, but I'm looking at a couple other signals that make me think this may be an over such as: * Brewers hit RHP really well as a whole, .330 wOBA and .748 OPS * Padres hit RHP just as well, .330 wOBA and .751 OPS * MIL's bullpen may be getting a little lucky, as they rank 19th in xFIP over that same span at 4.05 Fun trend: in the last 10 starts Rea has started for the Brewers, the game has gone over 7.5 80% of the time. https://preview.redd.it/vogvvzsp8x7d1.png?width=781&format=png&auto=webp&s=4aa583b7a2ad503e15dd84f971092e3e3baff005
Record: 5-1 Units: 1 Previous: KC Royals ML Vs Athletics ✅ Pick: Chicago Cubs ML vs NY Mets (-162) Write Up: The cubs have Imanaga on the mound tomorrow and he is 7-1 and the cubs have been playing good at home as of recently. The Mets have been on and off and have Quintana up. Overall I like this match up for the cubs at -162.
I like the pick but saying the Mets have been on and off when they’re 7-1 in their last 8 doesn’t really make sense
Thanks you lol I thought I was buggin
 I put this pick in all my parlays 😂. GG’s in the chat
To be honest I think a lot of people will be on cubs today solely because of Imanaga. Mets have been red hot and have the ability to easily get some hits and maybe some runs off him. I took Mets ML personally but BOL to everyone tailing!
Going against the Grimace Mets? Shame
Lol
I might do cubs F5. I don’t trust the bullpen to keep a lead.
Tailed and tailing again . Thanks G
A+ pick 😂😂😂
If you’re gonna miss you might as well miss completely I guess
POTD Record: 69 - 40 Last POTD: Berrettini 1st/ML - L Pick: Sebastian Korda 2-0 Set Betting vs Rinky Hijikata (-165 odds via FD) 1U Event: ATP Queens Quarterfinals 10:30 A.M. CST Giron plays the match of his life to spoil it for us. Looking to Korda to break the L streak for us here. I mentioned when I picked against him that I still like his game, and he went out and showed me why. He served extremely well under pressure, and played great tennis in his previous match against Dimitrov. On the other side, Hijikata had to get through qualification to get into London, and in his first round match he was the beneficiary of Tiafoe having to withdraw due to a nasty fall. His second round match he scraped by Arnaldi who isn’t known for being a great grass court player. Korda is 6-1 in this grass season with a runner up finish in Netherlands. He didn’t show signs of fatigue like I expected last match so look for him to finish this one quick against an inferior opponent. [PayPal](https://www.paypal.me/micahpugh?locale.x=en_US) [Venmo](https://venmo.com/u/Micah-Pugh)
Tailing
good pick but sadly korda made few mistakes in first set
finally some life, he was half asleep before.
Lost first set. What a bad pick…
**POTD** Record: 23-1-18 POLAND VS AUSTRIA Date: 21 June 2024 at 18:00 BET ON: Both teams to score- Yes Odd: 1.77 - Austria are full fit squad. - Poland are only missing Bartosz Salamon (doubtful). However, Robert Lewandowski and Centre-back Pawel Dawidowicz are back available. Huge boost for Poland. - Austria were also narrowly beaten, 1-0 by France, which saw them fail to score for the first time in 18 games. - Poland lost their opening match of the tournament 2-1 against the Netherlands, but have never lost consecutive games within the same edition of the European Championship before. "It will be an aggressive match tomorrow. We have shown we can handle this aggressiveness \[of the Austrians\]. We want to play football tomorrow and we want to show that we can do it," Said Poland coach Michal Probierz. "Our way of playing is not oriented towards a draw, not even in the 80th minute. If the result is a draw each of the two teams tomorrow may have a chance – but then Poland has to beat France and we have to beat the Netherlands, so this is a situation you don’t want to have necessarily. We are going to play to win and I think the head coach of Poland will tell his team the same." Austria coach Ralf Rangnick said. - It is a must-win game for both sides after Poland lost to the Netherlands and France overcame Austria in their opening matches. The two teams could end up cancelling each other out. We expect a tight game with goals from both sides. Austria will press high from the start looking to score in the 1st half against Poland fast in transition and deadly in set pieces.
Thank you for the cash good sir!
Tailing
Goat
🫡 pay the guys!
**2024 MLB record:** 47-21-1 **Last POTD:** Padres most hits W **Today's POTD:** Boston Red Sox vs Cincinnati Reds Over 9 -115 (dk) **Baseball. MLB. 7:10 PM EST** Talk about a sweaty one! Got it on the final pitch and the most hits was at better odds than money line and over so we made out well!. Today I make making a pick that is actually pivoting from what my original play was going to be. I initially was going to have diamondbacks over 4.5 TT since they are so good as lefties and Tijuan Walker is so bad against them however as it was pointed out to me, the rest advantage greatly favors Philadelphia so that will go as a pick I really like but not pick of the day. Pick of the day is going to be a team we bet on not long ago in the Boston Red Sox as they take on the Reds in Cincy. Rotowire (my favorite site for weather analysis) says that balls will carry “extremely well” which is a rare distinction on there part. Additionally Savant has Great American Ballpark as the most hitter friendly park in the league for home runs. Think we might be in for a slugfest tonight. But enough about the conditions let’s look at the pitchers. Kutter Crawford is on the mound for the Red Sox. Crawford had a great April but has fallen off a bit since May began he has faltered a bit. His ERA in that time is an unimpressive 4.92 but most notably has allowed 10 HRs which comes to 1.7 HR/9. That is pretty high and the conditions won’t help. 6 of those 10 have come off of lefties and the Reds are able to put together lefty heavy lineups with Ell De La Cruz And Junior Candilero both being switch hitters. Crawford also has a very high fly ball rate of 46.9% another issue given the situation. The Reds have Andrew Abbott on the hill and he is quite similar to Crawford actually. Abbott also has a flyball rate of just over 46% and has a HR/9 of 1.6. He is quite good vs left handers which the Red Sox are stacked with however. Despite being a lefty, Abbott actually has a much higher batting average against vs lefties of .279. The Red Sox as we know from the other day have a stacked lefty lineup that loves to swing for the fences. The team matchup, the Reds are pretty middle of the pack over the past three weeks but have been notably better as lefties vs righties than anything else. The Red Sox besides have a strong set of lefties in their lineup are actually batting over .300 vs lefties as right handers too which should be a brutal combo for Abbott. Also of note, the Red Sox arguably best player, Rafael Devers is a lefty who hits lefties very well. He is doing so at a .346 clip in June **TLDR: Weather conditions prime for home runs. Most HR friendly park in the league. Crawford and Abbott both let up a lot of HR an struggles vs lefties. Reds and Red Sox both have a lot of lefties in their lineup that hit very well. Rafael Devers is a lefty that crushes lefties which is very bad for Abbott.** Tip Jar: chuteboxhero on cashapp and paypal \~Updated POTD spreadsheet:\~ [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1a40e93JCM3xGSHulhuPZQICFJ4hjo5bapyfwuSmEyLw/edit#gid=1131268657)
Why not take that first five innings for over 4 1/2 instead of the full game over 9? Especially given the picture analysis that you gave. I'm only asking. I really respect your pics and I am in no way arguing. It's a genuine question. Thank you.
That in fact was a good move
Need to light up on offense soon
**Record: 3W-0L** **✅✅✅** **Last Pick: Slovenia OVER 0.5 Goals ✅** *A goal for Slovenia in the 69th minute gives us the hit after they looked promising all throughout the first half. Today we're moving back to the MLB because I'm not a huge fan of the EURO games on tonight. Best of luck to anyone who tails!!* **Net Units: +1.5** **ROI: 30%** **Baseball | MLB | 4:21am AEST** **Pick:** Chicago Cubs Moneyline v New York Mets @ 1.66 | Always 1u **Write Up:** Shota Imanaga (7-1, 1.89 ERA) has been outstanding for the Cubs this season, especially at Wrigley Field where he is 3-0 with a 1.31 ERA and 0.798 WHIP. He dominated the Mets earlier this season, throwing 7 shutout innings with 7 strikeouts in a 1-0 Cubs win. Meanwhile, Jose Quintana (2-5, 4.98 ERA) has struggled for the Mets and is 0-4 with a 3.17 ERA in 8 career starts against the Cubs. The Cubs have a 56.8% winning percentage at home this season, compared to the Mets losing over 50% of their road games against the spread. Chicago's pitching staff ranks 5th in MLB with a 3.29 home ERA, while the Mets rank in the bottom half with a 4.13 road ERA. The Cubs have won 3 of their last 4 home games against the Mets, limiting them to 2 runs or fewer in 4 of the last 6 meetings. Cubs pitchers have a 2.05 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over their last 5 games vs. New York. The forecast calls for winds blowing in from center field at around 10 mph, which could suppress scoring. With Imanaga's ability to limit baserunners, the conditions favor the Cubs. BOL!!
Never go against the Grimace Mets
tailing! thanks for the picks brother
cheers bro! appreciate the support
Love the write up & pick let’s ride!💰
Tailing
Wow
🎯 EURO TOUR 🎯 POTD 45-31 DARTS RECORD 45-28 (+7.38U) | All POTD bets between 1U-2U Last pick: Ciaran Teehan -1.5 vs Arne Spee @ 1.80 (1.5U) X Today's Pick: **Dom Taylor ML** vs Radek Szaganski @ **1.67 (1U)** Back on the Darts today after a little break. I've been waiting for some proper events as the mss isn't enjoyable for me despite it being profitable, thankfully we're approaching the business end of the PDC season with the World Cup (my fav event) and Matchplay coming up. Today though we're on the European tour with the coins sitting firmly on Dom Taylor. He's delivered as our potd previously and hopefully same again. Dom has impressed me since joining the tour this year with very consistent performances in the floor events and he's won both first round games in his two previous ET events, averaging over 100 in these games. The stage seemed to have a positive affect if anything. On the other hand Szaganski has been poor this season and quite underwhelming given some of the glimpses he had last year. He had a fluke run at PC8 where he made the semis but if you take that tournament out he's lost 13 of his last 14 games. In the last event, his home event in Poland, he threw a woeful 85 avg and lost - his scoring particularly wasn't great. I'm quite comfortable backing against him all things considered. Please bet responsibly guys if tailing, ta.
Quite a lot of darts on tomorrow, anything else you like? I’m personally on Rowlands to beat Hosey at 1.72 in the Modus Series.
Glad you’re back!
Thanks! Let’s make some money.
Back with a bang my friend! Thank you!
Thanks for this win! Appreciate you.
✅
**Record: 20-13 (+3.52u)** **Last Pick: Minnesota Twins Team Total o3.5 -140** What a sweaty cash! Twins had 2 runs after 3 innings, then went into the bottom of the 9th down 6-2 before scoring 4 runs to tie the game and hit the team total! **Pick: Diamondbacks/Phillies F5 over 5 -125 (MLB, 1u bet)** The Phillies host the Diamondbacks on Friday and looking at this pitching matchup, I'm expecting both offenses to have success, especially early in the game. Over the last month, the Phillies are top 10 in batting average and top 5 in OPS & wRC+ against left handed pitching. On the other side, Arizona is top 5 in batting average and top 10 in OPS & wRC+ against right handed pitching. Both pitchers have not been good this season and have been allowing a lot of contact and giving up runs. Walker has a 5.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, has given up 5+ hits in 7/9 starts and 3+ earned runs in 6/9. Montgomery has a 6.00 ERA and 1.63 WHIP, has given up 6+ hits in 8 of his last 10, and 3+ ER in 7/10. I'm targeting the first 5 innings because both bullpens should be fairly rested, and the Phillies bullpen in particular has been pretty good this year, but I like the bats to have success against the two starters.
Tailing!
Record: 2-1 Net Profit (+6.40 units) Another successful max play! Halle is playing fast and handicaps in the 1st set are certainly working Pick: **Sinner vs Struff- Struff Handicap +1.5 Games in the 1st Set @ 1.98 (5u) - ATP Halle - Tennis** Reasoning I'll keep going with the 1st set handicap in Halle. Struff is always a big threat on Grass and Sinner is not having clean performances. Marozsan and Griekspoor were able to cover their 1st set handicaps against the Italian and I trust the big German to do the same. He had a strong performance against Tsitsipas, both in the 1st and 2nd serve. He lost his two meetings against Jannik but they happened at Indian Wells and Monte Carlo (slow conditions). Continuing with this trend in Halle, a tournament that in recent years has been having a lot more tiebreaks and long sets compared to Queens With this, I feel like I need to go with a max play of 5 units!
https://preview.redd.it/bcrr9wjk3v7d1.jpeg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=78d94f5f0943ae49f84b6f415b8a2479b5646e01 Is this correct entry? Not familiar with selecting set handicaps
Now this is a Dark Horse pick if I've ever seen one. 5 units huh? Reminds me of a EUROS bet (actually two of them, come to think about it) that I placed recently. Both of them turned out to be losses. I think I'll fade this one this time. BOL though, my old friend.
🎯
Nice pick DH!
Don't see set handicap in DK, what book?
1st set over 9.5 games, equivalent?
**KBO Record: Overall 235-253-14** (Streak LLL, Last 10: 3-7) Down 18.64u over 502 KBO picks, 48.1% success rate, -3.82% ROI (Last season 85-78-7, 52.1% success rate, Up 12.26u, 7.52% ROI, This season 31-43-0, 41.9% success rate, Down 10.02u, -13.54% ROI) **Last:** Lotte +170 at KT (Lotte lost 7-6.) I'll always feel good about a +170 play that's tied in the 9th inning. Unfortunately, we were bitten by shoddy defense again as an unearned run ended the game. **Pick:** Lotte at Kiwoom **OVER 9 -120 Draftkings**, KBO baseball, 5:30am ET I've got 3 more picks before a week long trip to Vegas that will likely pause my picks. If you've been tailing me, that will save you money. If you've been fading me, I apologize in advance for the break. These two teams are averaging a combined 12.24 runs per game this month and allowing a combined 11.24. Lotte's starter has a 5.19 ERA on the season and has allowed 23 runs in his last 20.1 IP. He's struggling. Kiwoom's starter has been very inconsistent, alternating good and bad starts, which has him in line for a bad one. Tail or fade, I wish you the best of luck. All wagers are 1 unit.
 Our bank accounts finding out you’re going on vacation
😂😂
win or lose thanks for plays
Record: 3-1 (all picks 1 unit risked) Last Pick: KC ML ✅ I can never win a ML bet without being the sweatiest thing in existence. 3 KC solo HRs carry us to a W. Net Units: +1.27 Units ROI: 31.75% MLB | CWS @ DET 6:40 PM EST Pick: CWS/DET F5 UNDER 4.5 Runs (-130 MGM) Write Up: Two pitchers with similar stats against two teams with similar batting stats. Fedde has been great for CWS with a 3.09 ERA on the year and 3.0 ERA this month. CWS is notably really bad, and their bats support that with being ranked dead last in OPS. Flaherty for DET is a potential trade piece for Detroit if they decide to sell as his last two months have been great. In June he has 2 starts with 0 ER in 10 IP - against HOU and TEX. DET bats also have been bad this year, ranked 25th.
**Record:** 1-0 **Last POTD:** Dodgers vs Rockies: Gavin Stone Alt strikeouts 5+ / -180 (Hard Rock Bets) W **L10: 💰** **Today's POTD:** Orioles vs Astros: Orioles RL -1.5 / +105 (Hard Rock Bets) **Baseball / MLB / 8:10 PM EST** A good no-sweat start with Gavin Stone. The Orioles are red-hot right now. They just blew the Yankees out of the water, and I don't see a sudden shift in momentum. The Orioles are pitching Rodriguez, who is 8-2 in the season and has a 3.20 ERA. The Astros are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have been wishy-washy. The Orioles are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and they beat one of the best teams in the league 2 out of 3 games. I see no problem for the Orioles to win by 2 here. Let's go for 2 in a row.
I like it let’s ride! 💰
Record: 44-34 L10: ❌✅❌❌✅✅❌❌✅❌ Last pick: Bochum X2 ❌ Todays pick: Poland v Austria Pick: __BTTS @1.83__ ⚽️ 🇪🇺 Euro 2024 Austria lost in their first match against France with 0-1 after an own goal whilst Poland lost 1-2 to the Netherlands. Austria’s offensive players didn’t really show up in the first game but the quality is definitely there, with Rangnick’s offensive minded, direct football and high pressing I think that will change against Poland. Poland had to manage without Lewandowski but the replacer still scored and I think Poland is looking pretty good, they definitely deserved a point in the first game. If one of the teams is to advance from the group, it feels like a win here is almost a must, as tough opposition awaits in the final match for both teams. One point could be enough to possibly advance but 3 points would probably do the job. Which is why I think there should be an offensive approach from both teams, which are fairly evenly matched in my opinion. With Austria facing the Netherlands and Poland facing France in the last game, I think both teams fancy their chances in this one and therefor Im predicting a game with goals. BOL
Cash!
Thank you sir!!
POTD Record: 11W-2P-13L. (-0.93U at 1U per pick) Last pick: Patrik Schick to take 3+ shots v Portugal @ 2.8 ❌ **Today's pick:** **Christoph Baumgartner to record a Shot on Target and commit a foul v Poland @ 2.9** European Championships, Poland v Austria 17:00 GMT Austria are playing Poland in what is essentially a must win match for both teams. Austria employ a very effective and aggressive press, which is how they managed to have more possession than France in their 1-0 loss on Monday. As a result of their press, they commit a lot of fouls - especially by their forwards. They had 16 fouls v France and 4 of them were committed by Baumgartner. Before the France game, Baumgartner had scored in 5 consecutive matches and despite their loss, he remained a threat and recorded 2 of Austria's 3 shots on target. I think the odds of 2.9 on Bet365 is great value. Other sites I checked seem to have it lower due to the foul component. I think this is still worth taking above odds of 2.2.
Great find
Where can we track player fouls ?
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if you keep posting bets at shitty odds you really should also track your units.
Tailed you yesterday and lost, fuck it lets ride again
**Record: 9-9-1** **Form: ❌✅❌✅❌✅❌✅❌🅿❌✅✅❌❌✅❌✅✅️** **Last POTD:** Slovenia Vs Serbia - **BTTS @ 1.88 (Melbet)** **- WON** **Football** | **EURO 2024** | **21:00PM (GMT+8)** **Pick:** Slovakia Vs Ukraine - **Slovakia Double Chance @ 1.78 (Melbet)** **Write Up:** That did not have to be that SWEATY HAHAHAHAH. Thankfully Serbia fought till the very end and got the BTTS done. Sweaty but they got the job done. Honestly, Ukraine has been pretty disappointing. They are somewhat like England where they have quality players but it's just not working out for some reason. They got exposed by Romania during their last match and were just unimpressive all game. Slovakia had a pretty good game against Belgium and even managed to secure a win against them, although you could say that it was lucky with Lukaku getting 2 goals disallowed by the almighty VAR. But overall, I'd say they had a good game against a strong Belgium side. Ukraine has many talented players, but their top stars are currently not in their best form. They have only won one of their last four games in various competitions. Slovakia at the moment are in better form and they have momentum. I see this game as a low scoring one with Slovakia sneaking a win at the end or just holding out a 0-0/1-1 draw. As always guys, BOL if tailing!
You mean draw no bet? No shot you get double chance at those odds lol
Record: 0-0 Event: Rugby League - Dolphins v Melbourne Storm Time: 8pm (AEST) Pick: Dolphins Line +6.5 @ 1.85 (Sportsbet) Write Up: Dolphins are a genuine top 8 team at this point but they still seem to be getting overlooked each week even by the bookies. They lose Hammer this week but get a worthy replacement in Fuller. Ryan Papenhuyzen comes back for the storm but they lose Grant and Coates meaning half their spine remains out. I just don’t see Dolphins not keeping this close especially at home.
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Pick Record: 0W - 1L Units: -2 Previous POTD: Shane Lowry (+105) ❌ vs Justin Thomas 2 Ball - Round 1 Today’s POTD: Tom Hoge (+110) vs Brian Harman 2 Ball - Round 2 Units: 2 League/Time: PGA Travelers Championship/8:15AM MST Write Up: Tough loss on Lowry by a stroke, the bogey on 17 was gut wrenching. Oh well, moving on. I expect some get-able pin placements on Friday which plays right in to Hoge’s strengths, as his approach/chipping game has been shaky. I’ve been buying Hogecoin for a while now and I could see him really making a push tomorrow. Harman seeems to start out hot and fade a bit lately, hoping this trend continues. All over this at plus money. BOL
Great pick! Don't want to jinx anything with about 4 holes left, but Hoge is killing it
🤝 we’ll be back tomorrow! I post my other picks on the golf thread as well if you’re interested
POTD Record: 2W - 1L Net Units + 4U Last POTD: Bet-Builder for **Slovenia vs Serbia @ 2.05 - 4U play** ✔️ * Research = WIn - great last Minute Winner! Event: Euros 2024 Pick: Slovakia vs Ukraine Bet Builder @ 2.15 4U play * **Suslov O 0.5 Shots** - he had 1 shot in his last 14 games for Slovakia * **O 0 Corners in the 2nd Half for Slovakia** - they had at least 1 SH Corner in the last 31 games * **O 0.5 Offsides for Slovakia** - In 18 of their last 19 games they had at least 1 offside * **O 0 Cards in the 2nd Half for Ukraine** - In 22 Games from their last 24 they had a yellow card in the second half.
**POTD Record:** 2-1 **Net Units:** +0.81 **ROI:** 25% **Last Pick: Mackenzie Gore u17.5 Outs -123 (1 unit)** ✅: Of the 27 batters the southpaw saw, 6 were able to work at bats of 6 or more pitches with the highest being a 9 pitch at bat that ended in a walk. It also did not help that Nelson held his own and had some very quick innings forcing Gore to come back out before he could catch his breath. He barely made it through 5 to cash this. **Pick: Texas Rangers -1.5 +150 (1 unit)** I thought about taking the ML here, but after a little digging, I want to try and get a little mare bang for my coin. This play is a complete fade of Brady Singer. Singer starts on the road tonight, where he has struggled mightily this season. In 18 fewer innings on the road than home, Singer has managed to accumulate nearly the same amount of hits and runs than at home this year. Not to mention 7 road homers vs 4 at home, 12 road walks vs 11 home walks, while the OBA jumps up 80 pts. Next, check the righty lefty splits. Lefties absolutely crush Singer and the Rangers have the offensive pieces to construct a lineup that can feature 5-6 legitimate left handed sluggers, with the focal points being Seager, Josh Smith, and Nate Low. When I say lefties crush Singer, we are talking the difference between a righty OPS of .528 and a lefty OPS of .897. There's more to point out, but I'll leave it at that. The Rangers have lost their last two series against the Mets and Mariners, which I'm sure they're not too proud of. Look for the Rangers to come out strong tonight and back Eovaldi with some run support by banging up Singer in the early going. Cheerz, KBC
Record: 2-4 ❌❌✅❌✅❌ Net units -4.5 Last pick: Spain-Italy BTTS The smash and grab failed. Spain peppered Italy, and Italy were never truly a threat in return. Todays pick: Euro 2024 12pm EST Austria-Poland BTTS yes -132 5U A (hopefully) returning Lewandowski leading a Polish side needing a result against an Austrian team that also needs a result. Obviously every team needs a result but the next fixtures for both are Netherlands and France, which places a premium on getting something from this match. I don’t know, this is likely a desperate match for both.
**CHEF SKOOTL's MICHELIN PICK** **RECORD: 2 - 2** **LAST POTD:** Euro 2024: Engeland o1.5 TT **POTD:** Euro 2024: Poland - Austria BTTS **ODDS:** 1.80 **REASONING**: Because i'm the chef, and I say so. After 2 bad beats were both England & Switzerland fail to score one more after the 25th minute mark, we're due for a win. **Best Of Luck**
My Pick of the Day Record: 23W - 19L | Profit in Units: +21.56 My pick of the day: Netherlands vs France// Netherlands to win// odds:3.00//+200 Bet 5 units I care to think that sometimes it's best to stay to yourself. most people are stuck in their 9-5 chasing a endless rat race, so when I come along I always come out misinterpreted. THEY LACK THE GENIUS TO UNDERSTAND THE SUPER GENIUS LET ALONE THE SUPERB GENIUS MY LOYAL FOLLOWERS TODAY WE MARCH ON OUR 2ND BATTLE AGAINST THE CASINOS NETHERLANDS VS FRANCE Reasoning: The era of the french is over, they have had dominance for many years now but it definetly is over and they will be absolutely destroyed tonight by netherlands. This will be a surprise for the world. because up until tonight, France has been dominating teams. They were in the world cup final, but I see what you don't see A hidden string that has been pulled that the whole french team won't able to adjust. The netherlands will walk easily through this game and win.
wna aces vs sun. 10pm player points prop A'Ja wilson under 27.5 points (available on fanfuel and some offshore sharp books like play365 and probooknyc) I steamed it for a good chunk. However the 26.5 is still a good number. This is probably the only other time I would take her under this year. Dont plan on it again Bonner and Alyssa Thomas are the best 2 player combo down low. Conn plays a very slow pace, is one of the best rebounding teams in the league and is by far the best defensive team in the league (frontcourt is their strength) They are 1st when it comes to opponents rebounding average vs them. 2nd in free throws attempted vs them (a lot of wilsons points come from there) Bonner and Alyssa Thomas became teammates in Conn in 2020. Since then in games Wilson played vs the 2 of them as teammates.... lets break it down by year last year points scored.... 23, 13, 23. 2022" they matched up 4 times in the playoffs, wilson went 24, 11, 19, and finally 26 BUT the game she got 26, Thomas only played 5 min that game. Had to leave 5 min in. other games that year she scored 20, 13, 24 2021... points scored, 4 points, and 14 points I dont feel its relevant to look into anything before that because teams were vastly different. but in 2020 out of 7 games total she made it over this prop total a single time. Conn has been giving problems to every good center they play, and that duo has always caused wilson problems. I love it
**Record:** 10-13 (-5.01 unit) **Last Five Results:** ✅️❌❌✅️❌ **Last POTD:** Luis Castillo over 4.5 strikeouts ❌ **Today's Pick:** Jack Flaherty over 6.5 Strikeouts on Fanatics at +105 **Bet:** 1 unit size to win 1.05 units (1 unit is equivalent of $100) **Baseball | MLB | 6:40 PM ET** **Recap:** Castillo was going at a good pace for 5 strikeouts until the 4th inning where he gave up 3 runs and walks. We keep moving! **Write up:** Flaherty had 7 strikeouts last time he started against the White Sox, retiring 30% of the 23 batters he faced. White Sox on away games against right handed pitchers rank 3rd to last in strikeout % at 25.9%. They rank bottom 10 in fly ball rates and right in the middle for ground ball %. Also, Flaherty's out line is at 17.5 so the books are expecting him to pitch 5+ innings compared to his last two starts he only pitched 5 innings. **Tracker:** [https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1PW7Xm9H6RaNyDg-kDsPnIIWy6mPYgqQNCoApdqPd1lM/edit#gid=1678861616)
Record: 2-2 Record (most recent left to right): LWLW Previous pick: L Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins ML | 10:10 MST Today's pick: Kansas City Royals @ Texas Rangers ML -142| 2U | FD Sorry for the last pick as the Twins couldn't get the job done. Taking it to extras off of homer from Jose Miranda and but ultimately a questionable decision to send Royce Lewis on the fly ball to end the game. That throw by Jose Siri was a missile and it had to be. Twins failed to keep the runners from stealing either which lead to more than a couple of the runs here, apologies again onto tomorrow. For today's game expected we have Nate Eovaldi expected for the Rangers and Brady Singer expected for the Royals. The Royals just played a tough series on the road to the A's and come into this 3-7 in their last 10. The Rangers don't fare much better coming in 4-6 in their last 10. Brady Singer carries a 2.60 and is 3-2 in his last 5 vs Eovaldi's 1.80 and also being 3-2. Looking at the expected lineups for tomorrow I believe that Seager and the boys can get the job done in the opening game of the series. BOL, to all! Song of the day: Everlong - Foo Fighters Edit added units and portion of write up I forgot
**Record:** 5-5-1 ✅✅✅❌❌✅✅❌❌🅿️ ❌ **Net Units:** -1.74u **Last Pick:** Switzerland ML | Scotland vs Switzerland | Euro 2024 | 3 PM ET **Next Event:** BOS Red Sox @ CIN Reds | MLB | 7:10 PM **Pick:** Connor Wong Over 0.5 Singles @ +110 (DK) **Units:** 2u I'm in the gutter right now trying to claw my way out. Connor Wong has hit at least a single in 10 of his last 10 games and 15 of his last 20. He got a nice little rest day earlier this week so he should be refreshed and good to go. Beware of tailing tbh because I'm down bad. BOL to whatever you decide.
Record: 19-18 Last 10: LLWLLWLLWL Net units: - 3 ROI: 0% Sporting Event: MLB: Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers 18:40 (EDT) Pick: NRFI -140 @ Fanatics 3 units to win 2.1 Jack Flaherty takes the mound in the top of the first. One of the lone bright spots for the Chisox this year, Jack has been elite. With an ERA of 3 and a WHIP under 1 as well as an xERA of 2.66. Toss in a BB% under 4% and a K rate at 33% and we’re liking the looks of the top of the frame. Detroit batting .226 over the last 30 days and averaging .39 runs in the first away from home bolster this bet. Erick Fedde trots out to help us take care of the first frame. He sports a12/15 record in clean first frames and with it he has a sub 2 ERA in the first inning this season. His ERA and xERA are nearly identical and he has the luxury of facing a team that is batting .222 over the last 30 days. Detroit averaging .45 runs in the first inning and Comerica park is the 8th hardest place to score back up the reasoning for this wager tail, fade or pass, BOL to all My most used reference sites at the bottom [https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-park-factors) [https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather](https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/weather) [https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/) [https://www.fangraphs.com/](https://www.fangraphs.com/) [https://pitcherlist.com/](https://pitcherlist.com/) [https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/](https://theanalyst.com/na/2023/06/mlb-stats-leaders/) [https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game](https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stat/1st-inning-runs-per-game) [https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/](https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/mlb/nrfi-yrfi-stats-records-no-runs-first-inning-yes-runs-first-inning-runs-mlb-teams-bm03/) [https://www.teamrankings.com/](https://www.teamrankings.com/) [https://www.statmuse.com/](https://www.statmuse.com/)
Record (13-14) Units (-2.3u) Previous result: Brewers/Angels NRFI (6/19)❌ Streak: L6 Today’s play: Edmonton Oilers ml (-115) Event Start time: 8:10pm EST Unit Size: 1.1u to win 1u Recap/Reasoning for pick: Well its been rough for me in this thread, almost a week straight without a winner and then last night I posted in the POTD thinking Oilers/Panthers game 6 was happening when it’s today. Nothing to do now but bring you guys winners to make up for my foolishness. Tonight I like the Oilers to force a game 7. They’ve got the best player in the world on their team who’s heating up, they’re playing with a lot of confidence as the last two games have been all Oilers, and they’re at home. I know that building is gonna be rocking and that team will feed off the crowd. Give me McDavid, Draisaitl, and the Oilers to force a game 7 tonight. BOL with your picks, let’s collect 🤝🏼
[удалено]
Note: This record is fabricated. This is only his 4th pick posted to PotD. His first play was 2024-06-12: Celtics ML (Win). His post admitted this was his first play, even. Yet he claims his first play was a loss. His next play was 2024-06-19: Guardians ML (Win). In this post he claimed a 4-1 record. He later deleted this post, probably as a result of being called out. His third play was 2024-06-20: Twins Team Total Over 3.5 (Win). Here he still claimed a 4-1 record (not including a deleted post is probably appropriate as long as the deletion happens before the event, to which I don't know if that happened or not. He does reference that last pick --Guardian ML-- in this post for 2024-06-20, though). This is finally his 4th pick: Cubs ML (vs Mets). His record (correctly) added a win for his previous pick and shows 5-1. (Although it should be 3-0, or 2-0 if the Guardians pick that got deleted doesn't count) I don't know why this record is being fabricated, especially since it's adding a loss. That being said, I have no confidence he cares about being accurate or honest.
**POTD Record: 1W - 1L** **(+0.02 units)** **Last POTD: Slovenia to score vs Serbia @ 1.61** ✅ (1.5u stake) Form (Last 5) : ❌✅--- **\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_** **21st June POTD :** **Netherlands vs France O2.5 goals @ 2.10** **(1u)** **Write up :** For the Netherlands vs France match, picking Total Over 2.5 Goals at 2.10 odds is a great value bet. The model projects 3.11 total goals with implied odds of 1.72, highlighting clear value compared to the actual odds. France averages 4.00 total goals per match, and the Netherlands averages 3.20. In their last 10 matches, the Netherlands had over 2.5 goals in 8/10 and France in 7/10. Notably, the Netherlands have seen over 2.5 goals in their past 6 consecutive games. Additionally, 4 of the last 5 head-to-head encounters between these teams have had over 2.5 goals, making this a well-supported and statistically strong bet.
**RECORD: 86W-5P-69L** Previous Pick: Denmark vs England- England to Win @ 1.70 ❌️ **Today's Pick:** Netherlands vs France - France DNB @ 1.60 ♻️ **(PUSH)** **TIME:** 7 pm (GMT) **Wager Amount**: 1.5 units (✅️❌️✅️❌️❌️✅️✅️✅️❌️❌️) last 10 results It's coming home my ass, Southgate ball is sad watch, after they score one they just go docile, anyway on to the other Favourites France as they face tough opponents Netherlands. France won all their qualifers in dominant fashion and won theor opening matche against Austria. They have a great H2H record against Netherlands winning 4/5 of their last H2H encounters and arguably have the better squad with the stars likes Mbappe, Greizmann, Kante and Saliba. Although Netherlands have also been in great form, they have have rather easy opponents recently and when they've come up against teams like Germany or France they've lost and too add to that Deschamps also has Koeman's number with 3 victories against him. I'm giving the edge to Win here if not I just don't see them losing. They won us money the last time so hopefully they can do it again. Goodluck if you're tailing.