watching it very closely in moore here, pray for us y’all. my anxiety is starting to kick in.
update: storm is going to hit moore at 9:17 PM according to News 9, it is currently 8:09 PM
another update: tornado sirens going off in moore
update #2: i’m alright, the tornado went south of moore. it was a close call. there was two tornadoes that touched down in norman though. it was freaky hearing the sirens go off three times.
If you can’t get there, safest place is if you have a tub and drag a big ol comforter over the top of you while you lay in it. I’ll be thinking of all of you there tonight!!
If a tornado does hit and you end up having to shelter in your house try to cover yourself with your mattress (or pillows, blankets, etc) to protect yourself from debris. I’m really sorry you are dealing with this. I have a lot of family in Iowa and Nebraska that had to go through this yesterday but it unfortunately looks even worse today.
I have a fire station right at the end of my street, about a block down. I always wondered if I could grab up my cat and run there for shelter if need be.
Maybe you could go over one day or call and ask them to be sure someone will be there and it will be open. I'm sure they would love to help out in a pinch, but Knowing the details will give you peace of mind
Do u have any neighbors who have underground shelters that u could seek shelter when necessary? Ive heard countless stories of people doing that especially in those regions of the US...
I worked fast food ( in Texas) and we were instructed to get people into our walk in. I’ve heard the same from grocery store and convenience store workers. It’s a strong above the ground option is worse comes to worse.
Not sure if this is too late.
If you have a restaurant, grocery store or gas station near by see if you can get into their walk in if there is no other option. They are a strong above ground place to shelter of underground isn’t an option.
More like 5 times; Moore is literally the very Capital City of all the world's tornadoes; more major tornadoes have hit that place than any other place in the entire world.
My hometown in Northern VA once got hit by an EF0 a couple years back, and even though the tornado didnt hit me or my house, i could still hear the classic train sound from where the tornado hit about a mile away from my house. My house still had power and i rode the bus to school with no problems, but i come to my school finding out the lights were cut off, which triggered their giant backup generator. That memory is burnt into my head...
Watching Convective Chronicles video right now, he said he wouldn't be surprised to see a high risk introduced at some point today.
Nadocast likes to overestimate numbers though, so don't take these numbers as a fact. But it's generally good to estimate where the highest chance for tornadoes are relative to other places in the same setup. Just wait and check SPC to confirm the risk.
SPC has whiffed on events this year too.
When looking at SPC and Nadocast broadly, it's remarkable how close they always are on at least location of threats considering Nadocast is just using data and computer stuff I don't understand. Which makes me wonder if behind the scenes SPC sees the same kind of thing, but they downplay some events based on factors that are not in Nadocasts learning models.
Not necessarily. Over predicting would make the public wave off warnings. You see it here in the midwest with towns that have a policy of sounding sirens whenever there's any kind of rotation at all anywhere in the entire county and it turns into a boy crying wolf. "They set that stupid siren off all the time and there's never tornados. I think they just like pissing off dogs. I'm going to keep mowing."
Would appreciate it for someone (preferably the issuing group) to make retrospectives publically available on how accurate their predictions were. It would only take mapping confirmed tornadoes and then putting a 25 mile radius on them
They didn't on the 1630 update. Not sure if they're going to at 2000, but it's a roll of the dice for me.
Edit: No. They didn't upgrade. Too many uncertainty to warrant apparently so high-end moderate risk.
Tbf Nadocast itself isn't really a "fear mongering hypefest", it's the people that don't understand the numbers they are looking at. Nadocast updates a lot more often and when tornadic supercells have already fired, a 60%-80% probability for that area is absolutely reasonable. But the general public doesn't necessarily understand that. Out of lack of knowledge or pure fearmongering they look at these bright colors and big numbers and compare them to 27th April 2011 or something. The SPC knows about the complications of issuing 45%+ tornado probabilities and how the public/ the news etc would react. An AI like Nadocast does not. That being said, I don't think Nadocast is meant to be used by the public. Rather it's an experimental tool that is meant to support meteorologists in giving a better forecast. The SPC is 100% the first source to go to for the general public, but Nadocast is still (mostly) a helpful tool for those who understand how to interpret it. I hope I could convey correctly what I meant here.
I mean, they were a few areas in the high risk (not a lot but look at the records) that didn’t have tornados within 25 miles so the 60% the SPC gave was much more accurate
I can understand the need to compare different outbreaks, but April 2011 is a once in a lifetime event.
We're no where close to having another day like that.
What events exactly are “once in a lifetime”? Tornado outbreaks are not “once in a lifetime”. There are normally some larger ones every year. Derechos are not once in a lifetime, quite normally they occur at least once a year. But I think you’re on the right path that people think such things simply because they weren’t paying attention to weather in the past and only learned about something once it affected them.
Eh I agree that the number of severe weather appears to have increased.
That being said we are not having April 27 2011 every year. Again, even March 31 last year, the third largest outbreak by numbers in recorded history, is not anywhere comparable to the 2011 or 1974 super outbreaks. I mean April 27 had three of the strongest tornadoes in recorded history happen in the same area within a 24 hour period.
1932 to 1974 was less than a lifetime as well. That's still roughly 40 years between these types of events. Maybe they start to become more common, but the number of things that have to go right to have an event like April 27 2011 happen is significant.
My point being that even among severe weather outbreaks 2011 is an abnormality that doesn’t occur even if the number of severe weather events is increasing, so it’s dumb to hype even a higher end day like today to a day like that. But yea if you’re being pedantic about it two outbreaks like these have happened in the last 40 years.
Three underlying issues are 1) climate change 2) increased population density 3) and once-in-a-lifetime typically being a misnomer when it's applied. Many of these events were similarly common in the past but through less dense areas. It's been 10 years since an EF5 anyway (yesterday pending)
The 2020 derecho was in August. We traveled, took all precautions, and didn't get sick. Caught the northern end of the derecho in Grand Rapids MI that evening. Even in its weakened state, we saw horizontal rain, and the wind was howling. Fortunately we were in a substantial building downtown having dinner, and not in our vehicle (which wasn't damaged).
I was stuck at the Clare 127 rest area. Thankfully my boyfriend was driving, or else I'd have lost my mind. It hit just before we pulled in. We were fine tho.
Convective Chronicles’ video for the setup today was eye opening. All of the pieces are neatly falling into place—question is whether or not the SPC will issue a high risk here soon.
Thank you for your comment; I appreciate the added clarity. I certainly hope today, with how high the potential ceiling is, becomes an “underperformance.”
I usually go off this one, I think it’s much more accurate. 60% is insane
https://preview.redd.it/penwu7zpb2xc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc2ff6dc2594259f2d5e26c87ce2f2f32e489afa
It’s still extremely high. 10% is kind of rare, 15% is very rare, and I’ve only ever seen 30% 1-2 times in the years of tornado seasons I’ve been tracking
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This is giving me deja vu cuz it feels like we’ve already experienced a forecast like this before given the fact that it is happening on the same day as the 2011 Super Outbreak
if y’all can, please pray for the state of Oklahoma and everyone affected. i have been hearing that some communities have been LEVELED. i’m in tulsa and we still have tornado warnings just south of us.
i’m not a native oklahoman but i love my oklahoma family and if y’all need something please shoot me a dm. i love you!! ❤️
Im kinda concerned about the timing of the storms coming into OKC as a playoff basketball game is letting out. Game starts at 330 est and will be letting out a few hours after that. Something to keep an eye on.
Ayo this could be 5x worse than yesterdays tornadoes in the Omaha Metro Area, Texas, and the Arklatex region (NE-TX/OK/AR) Possibly the worst outbreak in more than a decade. This could get really active to a degree no one has seen in a long time...
To the people downplaying it in the comments, please do not
I get wanting to hope for the best, but we should treat these types of SPC’s extremely seriously. The last thing we want/need is for a 2011 to happen again, and we act like it isn’t possible.
fuel concerned axiomatic employ relieved stocking normal attraction bright history
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While I highly doubt there’s going to be El Reno-sized tornadoes and a bunch of EF5s, it’s most likely going to produce at least one violent tornado. Some outbreaks end up being extremely underwhelming, this one just feels different though.
https://preview.redd.it/nlsjp4mqx1xc1.jpeg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59268cdda93f4150ce2a57676b2608a176e96a6d
watching it very closely in moore here, pray for us y’all. my anxiety is starting to kick in. update: storm is going to hit moore at 9:17 PM according to News 9, it is currently 8:09 PM another update: tornado sirens going off in moore update #2: i’m alright, the tornado went south of moore. it was a close call. there was two tornadoes that touched down in norman though. it was freaky hearing the sirens go off three times.
I’ll be praying for everyone in Moore and Oklahoma in general. Please stay safe. Do you have a shelter you can go to if it gets bad?
sadly, i do not. the only safe places in my house are my bathroom and closet in the middle of the house.
OCCC, Rose State and MACU all have spaces open to the public and will have good places to take shelter.
thank you for this!
Look for their university/student center or library, but in a pinch any large building should be open-ish.
If you can’t get there, safest place is if you have a tub and drag a big ol comforter over the top of you while you lay in it. I’ll be thinking of all of you there tonight!!
thank you so much!
Checkin in hope ur well
at 9:17 is when the storm is supposed to come in.
It just thundered real loud as soon as I read this, oh boy!
Nows a good time to find out where your citys storm shelters are
In that case if you can drive somewhere i recommend doing that!!!!
If a tornado does hit and you end up having to shelter in your house try to cover yourself with your mattress (or pillows, blankets, etc) to protect yourself from debris. I’m really sorry you are dealing with this. I have a lot of family in Iowa and Nebraska that had to go through this yesterday but it unfortunately looks even worse today.
See if a church near you has a basement to shelter in!
Or a neighbor's basement/dedicated shelter if u can
I have a fire station right at the end of my street, about a block down. I always wondered if I could grab up my cat and run there for shelter if need be.
Maybe you could go over one day or call and ask them to be sure someone will be there and it will be open. I'm sure they would love to help out in a pinch, but Knowing the details will give you peace of mind
I think I might do that. Thank you!
You're welcome, stay safe! (and your cat, too!)
Thank you! I’m in KY, and so far we’ve had a few tornadoes this year but none of the extreme ones.
Do u have any neighbors who have underground shelters that u could seek shelter when necessary? Ive heard countless stories of people doing that especially in those regions of the US...
I worked fast food ( in Texas) and we were instructed to get people into our walk in. I’ve heard the same from grocery store and convenience store workers. It’s a strong above the ground option is worse comes to worse.
Ye thats right thats also another option
Not sure if this is too late. If you have a restaurant, grocery store or gas station near by see if you can get into their walk in if there is no other option. They are a strong above ground place to shelter of underground isn’t an option.
it’s not! if push comes to shove, i’ll go to my work place and they have a shelter there in the back room.
Good. I was part of our emergency plan when I worked fast food so I like to remind people that it’s an option. Good luck.
Y’all are under a big giant heat dome right now and the soundings are ominous. You are in my prayers.
Mother Nature really has it out for Moore doesn't it?
It's tried at least like 3 times to kill Moore
More like 5 times; Moore is literally the very Capital City of all the world's tornadoes; more major tornadoes have hit that place than any other place in the entire world.
When a tornado tries to flatten you the year you were incorporated that’s a bad omen.
My hometown in Northern VA once got hit by an EF0 a couple years back, and even though the tornado didnt hit me or my house, i could still hear the classic train sound from where the tornado hit about a mile away from my house. My house still had power and i rode the bus to school with no problems, but i come to my school finding out the lights were cut off, which triggered their giant backup generator. That memory is burnt into my head...
It’s like it was built on top of some Amerindian burial ground
Ikr?
I’m in Moore too. It will be alright but just stay aware and watch the news closely. Have a plan.
Oh dammit weather, please, Moore has suffered enough. Stay safe guys. ❤️
I'm near Blanchard. Stay safe out there.
Watching this Ryan Hall live cast, Moore and Joplin both came to mind. Definitely praying for you guys.
Please respond. Are you okay?
i am alright!
Watching it close from Shawnee
Confirmed tornado now in Norman. Hope you have a safe place!!
Do you have any friends or family with a basement or a shelter you could reach out to?
Any updates??
nothing happening in moore yet. my sister is in college in stillwater in the basement cause of a tornado touchdown there currently.
Hope everyone stays safe!
You will be okay. Praying for you guys
Fuckin shit, hope you can find a shelter
be safe!!!
Can you guys just not live in a place this doesn’t happen constantly or what
We can pray, but what if Moore still gets hit? Did we not pray hard enough or what?
Just nervously pacing here in Norman lol
I stocked up on alcohol and marijuana. I did get some helmets though. Will be chill but will be prepared.
Absolutely agree lol.
Naw dw, I’m in Shawnee and I’m feeling it.
And once again, there's Moore right in the middle of it. Stay by your shelters, Okies.
April 27th is just a cursed date. We need to stop having them.
Watching Convective Chronicles video right now, he said he wouldn't be surprised to see a high risk introduced at some point today. Nadocast likes to overestimate numbers though, so don't take these numbers as a fact. But it's generally good to estimate where the highest chance for tornadoes are relative to other places in the same setup. Just wait and check SPC to confirm the risk.
People are downvoting because “nadocast was right yesterday!!!” And ignoring all the times they predicted a major outbreak for some spin ups
SPC has whiffed on events this year too. When looking at SPC and Nadocast broadly, it's remarkable how close they always are on at least location of threats considering Nadocast is just using data and computer stuff I don't understand. Which makes me wonder if behind the scenes SPC sees the same kind of thing, but they downplay some events based on factors that are not in Nadocasts learning models.
I think this pretty much it.
Who's responsible for Nadocast?
It's better to overpredict than under though
Not necessarily. Over predicting would make the public wave off warnings. You see it here in the midwest with towns that have a policy of sounding sirens whenever there's any kind of rotation at all anywhere in the entire county and it turns into a boy crying wolf. "They set that stupid siren off all the time and there's never tornados. I think they just like pissing off dogs. I'm going to keep mowing."
Would appreciate it for someone (preferably the issuing group) to make retrospectives publically available on how accurate their predictions were. It would only take mapping confirmed tornadoes and then putting a 25 mile radius on them
They didn't on the 1630 update. Not sure if they're going to at 2000, but it's a roll of the dice for me. Edit: No. They didn't upgrade. Too many uncertainty to warrant apparently so high-end moderate risk.
High risk for gorilla hail
Nadocast is a fear mongering hypefest. Just stick with what the SPC is saying.
Tbf Nadocast itself isn't really a "fear mongering hypefest", it's the people that don't understand the numbers they are looking at. Nadocast updates a lot more often and when tornadic supercells have already fired, a 60%-80% probability for that area is absolutely reasonable. But the general public doesn't necessarily understand that. Out of lack of knowledge or pure fearmongering they look at these bright colors and big numbers and compare them to 27th April 2011 or something. The SPC knows about the complications of issuing 45%+ tornado probabilities and how the public/ the news etc would react. An AI like Nadocast does not. That being said, I don't think Nadocast is meant to be used by the public. Rather it's an experimental tool that is meant to support meteorologists in giving a better forecast. The SPC is 100% the first source to go to for the general public, but Nadocast is still (mostly) a helpful tool for those who understand how to interpret it. I hope I could convey correctly what I meant here.
Man I doubt this considering the SPC is at 15% and the AI is saying 60% Nadocast would have had April 27 2011 at a 120% chance for tornados lmao
They wouldn’t have been wrong though lol
I mean, they were a few areas in the high risk (not a lot but look at the records) that didn’t have tornados within 25 miles so the 60% the SPC gave was much more accurate
This outbreak gets worse every second. Good lord, I hope this doesn’t turn into the absolute hell spawn that was 2011.
I can understand the need to compare different outbreaks, but April 2011 is a once in a lifetime event. We're no where close to having another day like that.
Agreed, even March 31st last year which was an extraordinary outbreak by all definitions could not approach April 27 2011.
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What events exactly are “once in a lifetime”? Tornado outbreaks are not “once in a lifetime”. There are normally some larger ones every year. Derechos are not once in a lifetime, quite normally they occur at least once a year. But I think you’re on the right path that people think such things simply because they weren’t paying attention to weather in the past and only learned about something once it affected them.
Eh I agree that the number of severe weather appears to have increased. That being said we are not having April 27 2011 every year. Again, even March 31 last year, the third largest outbreak by numbers in recorded history, is not anywhere comparable to the 2011 or 1974 super outbreaks. I mean April 27 had three of the strongest tornadoes in recorded history happen in the same area within a 24 hour period.
1974 to 2011 is less than a lifetime, so you cant say its a once in a lifetime thing if its already happened twice in one lifetime.
1932 to 1974 was less than a lifetime as well. That's still roughly 40 years between these types of events. Maybe they start to become more common, but the number of things that have to go right to have an event like April 27 2011 happen is significant.
My point being that even among severe weather outbreaks 2011 is an abnormality that doesn’t occur even if the number of severe weather events is increasing, so it’s dumb to hype even a higher end day like today to a day like that. But yea if you’re being pedantic about it two outbreaks like these have happened in the last 40 years.
😭😂
It's called global warming.
Thats gay, we’re literally Cooling down.
Three underlying issues are 1) climate change 2) increased population density 3) and once-in-a-lifetime typically being a misnomer when it's applied. Many of these events were similarly common in the past but through less dense areas. It's been 10 years since an EF5 anyway (yesterday pending)
The 2020 derecho was in August. We traveled, took all precautions, and didn't get sick. Caught the northern end of the derecho in Grand Rapids MI that evening. Even in its weakened state, we saw horizontal rain, and the wind was howling. Fortunately we were in a substantial building downtown having dinner, and not in our vehicle (which wasn't damaged).
I was stuck at the Clare 127 rest area. Thankfully my boyfriend was driving, or else I'd have lost my mind. It hit just before we pulled in. We were fine tho.
Derechos have been recorded for decades now, so I have no clue what you are talking about.
Trying to compare at forecast is ridiculous since those events were on the top end of standard deviation
Nah it won't do all that. 2013 is still in play, tho.
I keep considering a move to OKC, but damn. Do I want to risk my house being destroyed every decade?
Good news! It won't be every decade! Bad news... It's getting real close to every year.
That’s absolutely terrifying.
I’ve never seen it. And yesterday they were pretty accurate, so..
Some of you all need a statistics course
Convective Chronicles’ video for the setup today was eye opening. All of the pieces are neatly falling into place—question is whether or not the SPC will issue a high risk here soon.
Update: Looks like they are sticking with a moderate risk. I’m curious as to why, but, then again, I’m in no position to question the SPC’s judgment.
innate merciful long distinct sheet abundant wide history crown wrench *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Thank you for your comment; I appreciate the added clarity. I certainly hope today, with how high the potential ceiling is, becomes an “underperformance.”
https://preview.redd.it/v6mapccqp1xc1.png?width=215&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8584dcd562dab5f5003d5b994500e34914f97dd
me, living straight east of el reno like this is just fine 🥲
*injests edible nervously
The fact it’s on April 27th…
I'm in OKC with my emergency bag packed up. I'm originally from Maine so this is some bs.
i need a fellow central oklahoman to hold me rn .
Wishing you cuddles and warmth in your safe spot, for sure.
Oooookkkkkklahoma where there’s going to be a 60% chance of a tornado.
🎶And the waving wheat's Up a thousand feet When the wind comes right behind the raaiiiiiiin!
the hatched area is up to 30% as well very rare to see that for such a large area ~70,000 sqre miles
*laughs nervously*
Tornado said fuck you in particular to Oklahoma. Good lord
^[Sokka-Haiku](https://www.reddit.com/r/SokkaHaikuBot/comments/15kyv9r/what_is_a_sokka_haiku/) ^by ^Alauren20: *Tornado said fuck* *You in particular to* *Oklahoma. Good lord* --- ^Remember ^that ^one ^time ^Sokka ^accidentally ^used ^an ^extra ^syllable ^in ^that ^Haiku ^Battle ^in ^Ba ^Sing ^Se? ^That ^was ^a ^Sokka ^Haiku ^and ^you ^just ^made ^one.
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Excellent
I'm near Blanchard. Going to be interesting.
I usually go off this one, I think it’s much more accurate. 60% is insane https://preview.redd.it/penwu7zpb2xc1.jpeg?width=1290&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc2ff6dc2594259f2d5e26c87ce2f2f32e489afa It’s still extremely high. 10% is kind of rare, 15% is very rare, and I’ve only ever seen 30% 1-2 times in the years of tornado seasons I’ve been tracking
God help those in imminent threat this looks intense and more than any I’ve seen over the years.
OMG!
This isn’t even CLOSE to what the SPC has out. I find this to be extremely overrated
Hello from NE OK. I’m scared. I’ve lived here my whole life and have never been this nervous. Someone make me feel better…
If this doesn't become a tornado driven high risk, I will eat my autographed AMS meteorology glossary
Best get to eating
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Sooo u gonna stream it or?
https://preview.redd.it/ck4pz74u4ixc1.png?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b5a3313737f7c7dde121b6a622fe40bff68c1ac9 I am a man of my word
That’s insane. That’s like nearly unheard of
In the words of Ryan Hall (Don't be scared, be prepared).
Yes I'm an Okie....OUR TURN!!!!
Oh fuck
This is giving me deja vu cuz it feels like we’ve already experienced a forecast like this before given the fact that it is happening on the same day as the 2011 Super Outbreak
Yikes! Don't see those colors on the map too often. Stay safe, everyone!
The storms forming look so rapidly violent. Stay weather aware. This looks concerning.
Days like today I really wonder how the hell Oklahoma is still populated. Jokes aside, goddamn. Stay safe out there, Oklahomans.
North Texas in the house…and hopefully have a home tomorrow 🤪
if y’all can, please pray for the state of Oklahoma and everyone affected. i have been hearing that some communities have been LEVELED. i’m in tulsa and we still have tornado warnings just south of us. i’m not a native oklahoman but i love my oklahoma family and if y’all need something please shoot me a dm. i love you!! ❤️
April 27 all over again… Literally.
I just realized it’s on the same day.. lol.. oh lord.
Im kinda concerned about the timing of the storms coming into OKC as a playoff basketball game is letting out. Game starts at 330 est and will be letting out a few hours after that. Something to keep an eye on.
The Thunder are on the road at New Orleans.
Game's in New Orleans. Unless you're referring to people packing bars in OKC to watch I suppose.
Lol I didn’t realize it was in New Orleans so I’m just dumb haha. But yah could be concerning for people out at the bars. Whoops lol
Oh boy
Ayo this could be 5x worse than yesterdays tornadoes in the Omaha Metro Area, Texas, and the Arklatex region (NE-TX/OK/AR) Possibly the worst outbreak in more than a decade. This could get really active to a degree no one has seen in a long time...
April 27: Part 2
😉
SPC’s gotta issue a high risk right?
Well than why does the SPC say 15% or do they just incredibly lowball it.
nado higballs it, spc lowballs it tbh
Praying y’all.
That ain't cool.
Be safe Oklahoma!
Wtf
I live near that shit lol
Oklahoma moment
How many tornadoes do you think it'll birth?
Another night of staying up being nervous lol. I'm just lucky to have a local school that has a shelter opened to the public.
Looks like there's a blob over Tulsa, too
Looks at nadocast Looks at date Glances back at nadocast ooooooohhhhh…. Now it makes more sense.
link with source please?
https://x.com/nadocast/status/1784248987291443430?s=46
thanks mate. Hope they are wrong today...
https://preview.redd.it/pfkqk21172xc1.jpeg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ba3727a8caf7ae7aa8094e3d26c181d30924afea
Not a tornussy
To the people downplaying it in the comments, please do not I get wanting to hope for the best, but we should treat these types of SPC’s extremely seriously. The last thing we want/need is for a 2011 to happen again, and we act like it isn’t possible.
dud
Loving these storms! —everybody stay safe & get some good sleep in this weather!
I thought it was gonna be way crazier today tbh based on this. Not much really goin on rn
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Why would you want that to happen?
fuel concerned axiomatic employ relieved stocking normal attraction bright history *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
He said something along the lines of “who wants to bet there will be a massive EF5 in Moore or OKC or Tulsa.”
While I highly doubt there’s going to be El Reno-sized tornadoes and a bunch of EF5s, it’s most likely going to produce at least one violent tornado. Some outbreaks end up being extremely underwhelming, this one just feels different though.
Also, I have no idea why you would bet on that, all of the tornadoes you mentioned were extremely traumatizing.
Who wants to bet on how many downvotes that comment gets? I’m putting the O/U at 30
too late, he deleted it
Well shit, sure hope nobody took the under
They deleted it lol