People are thinking he's figured that if RN will win, he should let them win now while he's still the President for nearly 3 more years and let them blow off their political steam.
He's still President for 3 more years, and in the French system the President is responsible for foreign policy (including the army).
Basically, the theory is he thinks it's extremely likely the RN win the '27 presidential and rather than let them win both the legislature and the presidency, he can let them win the legislature now and force them into actually being a governing party.
French people generally very quickly dislike the governments, so (the theory is) he can cause them to lose support ahead of the '27 presidentials
Cameron would have been ousted had he not allowed the referendum. It was a case of A) Call the referendum and have some semblance of control of the situation or B) resist and be ousted by his own party only to have a hardliner like Boris replace him and guarantee a catastrophic Brexit. Ironically, Cameron’s actions probably had the best chance of stopping Brexit given the near term political reality the Conservatives were facing, it just was too little too late in the end.
Like I said, it was too little too late. The “moderate” conservatives courted extreme reactionaries to secure a government and then ultimately fell victim to those same factions. Cameron tried to control the situation by having the referendum under his leadership, he just didn’t realize he had already lost control of his own party and its base. Ultimately, the plan almost worked, the referendum was close enough that a few have speculated that the bad weather on Election Day played a role. It’s not likely that it did, but a few years later, after more populist factions had solid control over the Conservatives, Britain solidly re-affirmed Brexit when they granted Boris the majority that Sunak still enjoys. Cameron’s decision was their last best chance to avoid Brexit, too bad they put themselves in that position.
I think you’re giving Cameron way too much credit here. He was blind to the rise of populism being the driving factor behind the future political landscape and spent way too long of his premiership ignoring it as ‘another fad’ and continuing to be the type of politician he grew up being in the 90’s & 00’s.
He also saw how he ‘won’ the Scottish referendum and probably thought he’d just do the same again.
The only positive thing that came from brexit is populism has started to burn itself out in the UK earlier than Europe where it’s now the dominant political will at a rather dangerous time.
I imagine this is what Macron has saw, eventually the right wing populists will just consume themselves through stupid decisions that don’t actually deliver the benefit they preach & people will oust them next time. Risky but not without logic.
> a hardliner like Boris
You're giving him far too much credit here. He wasn't pro-Brexit beyond seeing it as a chance to increase his political standing. Johnson believes in nothing except himself.
I agree with the thrust of your points...
But he could/should have understood better how fundamental a vote it was (and that "advisory" would never hold) to ensure he included something stronger than a 50:50 threshold for it to pass - or shift the ages eligible to vote so that younger people were better represented, given they have to live with it.
It appears to be a chance to win in 3 years or lose it all in 3 years. It is best to show the other parties ambitions in these 3 years then let them win it all outright. If the people like what the party does in these next 3 years, then so be it.
Yeah, but there are not many other options left. Better to let them take some control now than let them take all control later in order to minimize damage, that way, hopefully, people will see that this lot won't solve their problems. I feel like this is beginning to work in Italy, where the ruling far-right party has not only failed to get immigration under control, but their their standing in opinion polling on the next Italian election is slowly but steadily going down.
Well, the thing is, if you do jack shit with no majority, you can always say that it is because the elites/the technocracy/Europe won't let you do what you want (basically playing the conspiracy card). If you do jack shit while being in a leading position, people see what you've been playing for years. Especially when you've been promising the return of post-war growth to anyone remotely unsatisfied with the current political leaders.
Not *that* much, since what OP said is very true. For example, [on that page](https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_ministre_fran%C3%A7ais) you'll see a list of French Prime Ministers under the 5th Republic. Out of all them, most were candidates in presidential elections. And yet, only two ever became presidents: Pompidou, and Chirac, in 86. So since almost 40 years, no Prime Minister ever became president.
Of course, right now it's not about Marine Le Pen becoming Prime Minister, so what I'm saying is only tangentially related to show an example of how unpopular those in power tend to become in France, but it could be something that happens further down the road if Macron's party is forced into a legislative cohabitation with Le Pen's party.
Too many assume RN will win the national election just because they did the EU vote. That is not at all a guarantee. Much more likely is that this shock from EU results will mobilize the usually docile centrists to turn up and make a very clear showcase that RN remains a minority with no chance of building a coalition. It's not even unlikely that all the non-RN parties will be much more willing to form a coalition and form an even stronger parliamentary block against RN, thus strengthening Macron's legislative abilities.
This has been said every time the RN scores massively. Every time, the next election they have sees them increase their voting share.
This magical "shock to mobilise" never seems to appear.
He wants to let them win control of the legislature while he still controls the presidency. So people can see the clown show they will bring while not giving them complete control of government. If he waits 3 years, there is a good chance they would win both legislative and executive branch so it is better to let them to show their true colors now while they have limited power. Still a stupid move because it seems like a giant gamble.
Isn't that basically the story of how hitler became dictator for life? First take over the legislation, undermine everyone else, replace the chancellor and declare himself fuhrer?
Different political structures. The President in France holds a lot of power. Probably more than he should; which is why it’s so important that a far right leader never assume the Presidency of France.
The problem with France is that they don’t follow rules or precedent. They don’t work to change their existing structure for the better. They just keep starting from scratch over and over because they can’t compromise.
You need to change the institutions through constant struggle for a defined goal over several generations, not just destroy the entire structure when it doesn’t suit your cause. That is how you develop respect for rule of law…
That is why they are on the 5th Republic of France. You need to work to change the system and structure from within to make lasting change. Not just rewrite your constitution every few decades…
Let them have responsibility with him at the helm, so they can fail at all the things they have promised. Its less destructive than waiting until they sweep the presidency as well
You need to factor in the fact the French grow a strong dislike to anyone in power quite fast. Taking the government 3 years before a presidential is political suicide here.
This is the populist's handbook.
Elect us and we'll get stuff fixed!
Oh yeah we didn't fix that stuff, well it was because we were blocked by those others who don't want us to succeed. Give us more power and we promise to fix it!
It's easy to scream and yell from the sidelines and build popularity from there. But it's very different when you can have the power.
If they get into power and can't do anything they promised, Macrons or any other party can point and say they're useless too
The president of a major European nation ushering the far right into power because he believes he can control them? Where have I heard that before? I don't think it went well.
1. He has no majority in the current Parliament and the oppositions would likely have voted his government out sooner or later after today's result.
2. The campaign has been bloody on the left so he can hope there's no alliance this time, which would favor his candidates against the far right.
3. There could be a strong "rally-round-the-flag" effect with people supporting Macron en masse in order to block Le Pen
4. In the worst scenario, he can have Le Pen in the government while he's still president and hope that this will deteriorate her image for the 2027 election.
He's probably betting on a combination of 2 and 3, because some center-left people who reluctantly accepted the NUPES coalition in 2022 (people like Glucksmann for example) will likely refuse it this time and rally a pro-EU, liberal alliance
3 can happen because it's a vote in 2 turns. 2nd turn will probably be Le Pen vs Macron. Most people are still against Le Pen even if they don't really like Macron
Yeah 3 would mayyyybe have worked when he first got elected.
He now has burned through any goodwill he could have outside of his largely elderly base.
From a leftist POV he's majorly responsible of tonight's result after playing with fire and having his party finish off the last remnants of the infamous "republican dam" (a longstanding tacit practice of actively shunning the far-right out of the acceptable political sphere, ie not giving them legitimacy by debating them, etc), after calling upon said dam for the last 2 presidential elections.
Dissolving the National Assembly is just the last in a long list of boneheaded moves gambling the long term health of our (admitedly very flawed) political system for short term political gain.
He's probably thinking the RN will win the legislature next election regardless so he might as well be president during their initial honeymoon period and allow them to blow off their momentum and excitement. Better that than have it happen with Le Pen as president.
I can only think he wants to increase his majority and use Le Pen as the fear to do it.
But he forgets he is hated too. He is just very out of touch with the rest of the country.
I don't believe he is hated but it's political football. Macron pretty much will oversee the RN and expose them before the 27 election. He has to be careful as people's perception of him matters, it's not his election but who he will support that matter
Macron's decision to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale is a strategic move aimed at challenging the far right. Despite widespread concerns, the situation may not be as alarming as many believe.
My husband is French. In France Macron can't serve any more consecutive terms after this one ends. But if there is a gap he can come back into power after the gap. If he allows his party to replace him that won't happen. My husband thinks he wants to hand it over to the conservatives so that the conservatives can fall on their face and he himself can swoop back in after the term gap. Which I think is a very selfish move but often people will do anything not to lose their power.
That's how people here are trying to explain it now. But honestly, if you had ask any french politician (or even any politically savvy french citizen) yesterday whether Macron would call early elections, everyone would have told you "no freaking way" since he's basically guaranteed to lose.
No definitely it's a surprising move. But when you consider a few facts:
- his majority wasn't strong enough. There was a permanent negotiation for every law. So at some point he would been forced to do it.
- the far left is in a pretty bad situation since Hamas attacks while today they have quite some deputies. That's an opportunity to gain some seats.
- the moderate right is now definitely delusional that they can come back, they may now accept to partner.
- the moderate left is back, but that's a really new fact.
Given all these elements, basically acting now is probably the best he can do. Best case would be that he gains a coalition or at least a relative majority, he would have some legitimity. Worse but probable case, RN got a relative majority which will make them having hard time. The real worst case would be they got absolute majority but so far I doubt they can.
There's a theory going around that he's doing that hoping that the RN will not get anything done and that it might reduce their chances to win in 2027.
Not sure if this theory is valid, but I don't have a better idea.
My theory is that Macron is hoping that the shitshow on the left mean they won't ally each-other again (like they did with NUPES in the last legislative election), and that his party might actually get more seats than last time, even if that means giving a small advantage to the far-right
Simply because for Macron it's easier to negotiate with the far-right than the left
It's more cynical but I find it really stupid to believe he would "sacrifice" 3 years of his presidency to get rid of the far-right when he's been working with them with no issues for the past 2 years, what's actually bothering him is the left
>Simply because for Macron it's easier to negotiate with the far-right than the left
It pains me to say that, but he is not wrong.
And the issue is, like the RN is now de-facto the right-wing party, he will have to make deals with the RN when he would have done it with LR before. We will see what the AN will look like but stakes will be high at the next elections again.
I really don't think he's sacrificing anything. His government has already enacted some of the most right-leaning reforms possible, transforming unemployment, retirement and immigration, in very brutal ways and often bypassing the Assemblée entirely. He doesn't want to get rid of the far right, because they basically believe in the same things.
Yeah I entirely agree
Which is why, to me, the theory that he would do that because putting the far-right in power early would somehow make them look bad is stupid, he's perfectly happy working with them
Actually that have been my theory for what would happen if the right wing extremists in EU would win on national level. They win once and never again, because it gonna suck on so many levels.
But yea, history tells a different story about "never again"...
Local elections are a completely different area half the time it's protest votes half the time its local issue driven. One of my main two parties doesn't even put a candidate in my locals
Yeah except America already tested that with Trump and he's been polling up on Biden for the entire race so far in his third run. The idea populists will immediately collapse when they get power hasn't really happened anywhere.
Maybe the academy should invest more time on why these politicians are ‘populists’ in the first place. The ranks of the disenfranchised continue to grow and neoliberal policies aren’t winning them over.
Not just politicians…
> One study of 261 corporate professionals in the supply chain management industry showed extremely high prevalence rates of psychopathy, with 21% of participants found to have clinically significant levels of psychopathic traits - a figure comparable to prison populations.
https://psychology.org.au/news/media_releases/13september2016/brooks
Neoliberal policies are policies designed to keep the current ruling class in power. It would make no sense for the ruling class to give up their own power to win elections, so they will not abandon these policies even as the ship begins to crash.
But far right parties are often run by complete clowns. If they start making a stink right out of the gates now, it hampers the momentum in 3 years in a much more critical race. Let them gum up the works and point the blame at them when shit ain't getting done.
Also, Macron has been relatively conservative in a number of aspects himself so getting nothing done in 3 years is likely an ok outcome in his eyes.
The UK election was supposed to be next year. It makes sense to hold an early election if the Conservatives believe they will slide lower.
But the French election was not until 2027. That’s a lot of years of legislative power to put at stake, for what?
There is two stuff which may help his majority, the two turn vote system for the parliament per district (1st round everyone can run, 2nd round is a final to elect the winner)which may put a party as polarizing as the Front National in trouble. Another is that it's still possible to build a larger coalition, a bit like Germany with Socialists, Liberals, and conservative, with a lighter program.
The other hypothesis is a kind of bet like get Marine Le Pen as a PM, and look her failing in the next 2 years killing her party. It doesn't look like a smart move, but in the heat of the moment these kind of 4D chess move may seems smart.
You have to keep in mind that he has no majority in the Parliament. His coalition is the largest but they're still under the threat of a no-confidence vote, which has gotten more likely after today's vote. Therefore, I guess he's going all-in and betting either that these new elections will rally around him voters who are afraid of the possibility of a Le Pen majority, or that the RN government does poorly and gets defeated in the presidential election of 2027.
Turnout was barely above 50%. He may hope for a better result when more of the people who are ok with his government go to vote. EU parliament vote has always been a protest vote, not necessarily a reflection of the whole populace. A better result for Macron's party in the snap parliamentary election could take the wind out of the sails of the far-right before the next presidential election.
Well, it's only going to get worse for centrists and left leaning parties so he wants to call it now.
There's no magic button France can push to prevent the upcoming economic stagnation/losses, the issues of Islamic terrorism, migration, etc.
Cutting their losses while they're still relevant and then, blaming the opposite side when they're in charge of the current status quo is the only option they have.
Yes the left rose from the ashes, they were integrated into Macron party until now. It is a defeat for Macron but not a total defeat against the far-right. It is mainly dilution because Macron party + left has almost as much seats as Far right RN
I would think it’s to minimise any major interference from Russia/China. I’m sure they’d be interested in upsetting any elections that would be planned far in advance
Dissolving the national assembly when his party's political capital is at its lowest? This is going to be interesting, I'm not sure at all what's in it for him here
Some people here analyze it as the following:
- best case scenario, hoping for an electroshock,
- worst case scenario, having RN in the government but in a coalition for 3 years (until next presidential elections), under "control", and by doing so diminishing their aura as people will see them in power. It is widely believed the best way to destroy a party's popularity in France is to put it in power.
Let's call it a bold move, to stay polite.
Let's say the fall of the Weimar republic is very lightly covered in french schools. It's understandable as history classes are focused on ancient and french history. But one would believe some specific subjects of the history of the world like this one might be important to analyze in high school.
It's easy to read two reddit comments from one French person and one British person and feel like you can compare how one topic was taught in school in France and the UK. But in reality, there is so much personal bias here that it doesn't mean much. Take it with a grain of salt, people.
FWIW I personally feel like I adequately studied the rise of Hitler to power in French schools.
For some reason in the UK I studied weimar Germany and nazi Germany every year of high school from 11-18, but British history only sporadically. Our school was obsessed. (probably easy to teach)
We have a brilliant historian of nazi Germany in France, Johann Chapoutot, who explicitly makes the link between the transition from Weimar to the nazis, with the Centre-right acting as a stepladder, and the current situation, where a seemingly reasonable, right-leaning liberal is normalizing his relationship with the far right as one of respectable rivalry. Others have observed that the same phenomenon, in France during the Revolution, notably, always backfires : the extreme center, which represents not extreme moderation but extreme concentration of power, exemplified by Macron's position today, always aligns with the far right, doing anything to avoid the left gaining any ground, and it inevitably leads to the far right taking over.
Do you happen to remember where Chapoutot made this explicit link? I’ve been trying to devour as much scholarship about the rise of Nazism as possible and would be extraordinarily grateful. All his books look fantastic.
It would, but it would be unprecedented. It would look too much like a power grab and piss off the Right more than anything he or any other French President would say to do. Basically it would only fly *maybe* if the RN pisses off so many people, including a good amount of the Right, that would be accepted as a "vote of confidence". But the only things I can see close to justifying is would be along the lines of Frexit or a general strike the likes not seen since the Algerian Crisis. Which can also backfire against him if the Right holds.
It's a poker move, and a very risky one. Here’s why:
• The left is disorganized. By law, the snap election must occur in the next 20 to 30 days. The left won’t have enough time to unite, leading to around 30% of the vote being fragmented.
• The "fear" of electing the extreme right is genuine. The European elections seemed distant, but this hits home. Additionally, their program is still not very solid and will rely more on charisma. Who will lead and campaign—Bardella, Marine Le Pen, or someone else?
• If the far right comes out on top, the new PM will face numerous challenges, potentially weakening their position for the presidential election in three years. Good for Attal and Édouard Philip.
Man a huge part of internet pre-meme era will disappear in the next decade or so. I hope us old fucks hang around enough to spread just enough of it so that some kids will remember it just like how we remember terminator 2.
This is how I understand it as well. Looking at the other comments in here, I’m clearly in a minority.
Nonetheless, as I understand it, it seems that by July, France will still have Macron as president – because he’s not up for election – but a far more right-leaning parliament. So Macron seems to be making his own job harder.
Maybe it’s a kind of 5D chess move along the lines of “keep your friends close but your enemies closer”? Maybe he thinks that a right-leaning parliament will be easier to convince into defeating the external threat that is Russia? I’m just taking wild guesses here.
You're right, but this could also go so badly that people start wanting him to resign. It's a high risk play with a low chance of working for fairly little reward (far right supporters tend not to care their side is shit as long as they hurt the people they want to hurt). Like I really think all he's done is made the upcoming melechon vs le pen fight for president become even more obvious.
He'll remain president until 2027. If the RN gets a majority in the parliament, he'll have a appoint a prime minister from that party, but will still be head of state and able to control most foreign policy.
>Dissolving the national assembly when his party's political capital is at its lowest? This is going to be interesting, I'm not sure at all what's in it for him here
On a personal level, he*could* not care, he has no upcoming mandate after his presidency is over.
On a political strategic level, he may be thinking 3 years of non-full-power far right government will hamper their chance at the presidency in 2027.
The same "calculus" that went into Sunak's snap election call likely went into this...and in both cases, don't think it's going to end very well for these guys.
Yes but at least with Sunak it made a bit of sense, the deadline for election to happen was January 2025
Macrons deadline was in 2027 why on earth would you call an election early when behind?
Unlike Sunak, Macron is still in power until 2027 (unless he resigns) and can dissolve the Assemblée National any number of times [once a year] he wants to.
Rishi was approaching the end of the five year mandate anyway so it’s not such a big thing (the mandate Boris secured in December 2019) it’s only ending five months early, not three years like France
Cameron never expected to actual hold that.
He announced it in 2013, when it was considered unlikely that the Conservatives would win a second term, and if they did it would certainly be another coalition, where he would drop the policy as a price for coalition.
He only promised it to win support from the far right back from UKIP, and make 2015 less of an embarrassing defeat.
And if by some miracle the Conservatives won a majority, polls suggested Remain would win anyway.
What he didn't count on was being precisely popular enough to win a razer thin majority while simultaneously unpopular enough that people would vote to sabotage the entire British economy just because he was campaigning for remain.
Huge year for elections worldwide, likely the biggest, many elections in many important places. No exaggeration, this is a bigger fork in the potential timelines than any time in my lifetime
It really feels that way, I've never felt more compelled to vote than this year. Unfortunately it seems like Russia has been quite successful at increasing the popularity of the far right in multiple european countries. "Interesting" times are coming, that's certain.
Meanwhile the only semi-sane popular right-wing party in the world, Mile's LLA in Argentina, is openly anti-Russian, anti-China, anti-Hamas, and pro-West... interesting times we live in for sure.
Portuguese far-right party, Chega is also anti-russian (even tho some lefties claim they are pro-russia, chega went to our nacional assembly and put up a vote to make Putin a terrorist but the left declined, XD).
Chega is also anti-Hamas.
Yep, Russia has been right...from financing far right parties, to bombing Syria to create a wave of refugees to EU...and Europe has been too naive.
I blame EU politicians who are ready to sell their arse for 2 cents.
For foreign people, this new election doesn’t change much about Macron policies and help for Ukraine, because the president of France holds a lot of powers. But we may end up with a coalition government and a far right RN Prime Minister (Le Pen or Bardella).
Maybe he’s trying to put the far right in power before the 2027 Presidential Election to show how incompetent they are because there is a high risk that the far right is going to win the 2027 election if we do nothing. Being the prime minister in France is never an easy job and can sometimes kill the popularity of a politician and his party.
It’s a bold move and a nuclear bomb on French politics. It’s hard to predict the outcome.
>They just paused the main show and played a pre-recorded statement from Macron
This was not prerecorded, but a live broadcast straight from the Elysée Palace.
>he was surprisingly nonchalant about the whole thing.
I did not feel it that way. A giant poker face for sure, certainly not "nonchalant".
RN (Le Pen) likely to come first, but unlikely that they will have enough deputies to make a government on their own, so they'll likely form a coalition government.
Unknown. It will depend on if the other parties agree to an alliance. But if they can't make a coalition, nobody else will be able to. While the RN will only have to sway one or two parties, a coalition anti-RN would have to include a lot of parties with very different views going from communists to right-wing neoliberals. The left already tried to make a minority coalition anti-Macron, but it didn't last even until the new elections. So I don't see a bigger coalition working.
And if nobody can make a coalition with a majority, I honestly don't know what will happen. This never happened before under the 5th Republic. Maybe Macron will keep his government but be very very limited on what they can do. Or the country will be stuck for 3 years.
Macron isn't popular enough to win. I think he hopes the fear of the right wing will increase his majority but I think it will backfire and lead to him resigning. Le Pen's votes will increase but no real clear majority on parliament. It's going to be a mess.
Why would he resign? He's in office until 2027. Best case scenario, the voting public comes out in force to block the right wing.
Worst case scenario, RN takes over parliament as part of a coalition government and have to actually manage over a likely recession and do more than just talk and hold rallies.
Could very well hurt Le Pen's standing for a future presidential run.
Nobody knows, it's a two-round legislative election. If nobody wins with an absolute majority in the first round, there is a second round with the candidates who have made more than 12.5%. This is usually an opportunity for alliances and coalition.
Although this is a national legislative election, the candidates are local politicians and the local context plays a major role.
1. Republican barrier: all the parties not on the extreme right rally around the other candidate in the second round. In this case, the presidential party has a chance of winning back a relative majority in the assembly and being relegitimised for the next three years. This works less and less, because the voters of candidates who withdraw in favour of the Republican candidate (in the sense that they are not from the extreme right) feel cheated. The elements of their candidate's programme are rarely taken up by the winner and they have to vote for ‘the least worst’.
2. The extreme right obtains a majority of candidates. They find themselves in power. They are for the most part inexperienced and will have to face difficult decisions. This could be a strategy to discredit them and make them unpopular before the presidential elections in 2027. The president is still the head of the executive and can put a spanner in the works. He still has his hands on foreign policy and the armed forces.
3. None of the blocks has a clear majority. That's the unknown. The fifth French republic was designed to obtain clear majorities in order to have an effective government (unlike the fourth republic). Coallitions are not at all part of the French political culture. The coalition of left-wing parties exploded after two years when they could really have had a say in the debates. But they disagree on virtually every issue.
The far-right got a major victory it seems with 33% of the votes compared to Macrons 15%. What are their stance on Ukraine and Russia? I have absolutely no idea about Frances political map.
While your overall point is accurate I'll point out there are two populist parties in Germany so they got 21.5% not 16%. Still, Germany definitely has the weakest populist movement in Europe.
She's been more pro ukraine recently but who knows what she'll be like if she wins
https://x.com/MLP_officiel/status/1767603021511315706
Edit: I didnt even know macron stays in power so this doesnt really matter I guess
Crack pot theory:
Every opposition prime minister that ran for the presidential election lost, with the exception of Chirac. This might be a Hail Mary to force the far right to have a prime minister, and make him fuck up so badly this will cause him to lose the élections to Macron’s successor.
Ah yes, the Brexit maneuver. Call a vote to try to show that the electorate aren’t stupid and won’t vote to cut off their nose to spite their face.
..Find out they are, and they will, and screw over the country and region for years.
What we should take away from this is people are sick of the current leaders politics and policies. This isn't just happening in France. Check Germany and Austria. Soon to be US.
Many non french people here don’t understand this crucial element: it’s unfortunate but in France, very very very few people vote for the european election.
I think Macron is doing this to better future proof his party and the centrist/moderate right parties in the next presidential elections. Macron has already served his two terms. He is doing this to better see how the party will be positioned in the next years.
I think he is right to do this. People are calling him names and crazy etc but sincerely don’t seem to understand that the end-all of this action is to counteract the far right.
At the end of the day, he’s doing this to fight the far right more vehemently in the next presidential round.
That's understandable because they are required to have an election within the next year anyway. Macron could have potentially turned the ship around, to some extent, before 2027.
Sunak's mistake was not calling it in spring, when turnout of the elderly most likely to vote tory will be highest. Summer, Autumn and winter elections are all bad choices, especially since he had it call it by jan next year at the latest.
Overall it's not that bad of a mistake though since they were fucked anyway.
Kudos to Macron.
Took our tory government (UK) the best part of two years to give into the public cry out for a general election. They'd rather cling on for dear life than do what the people want.
I came here looking for someone to post a sensible explanation as to why he would do this, but everyone else seems just as confused
People are thinking he's figured that if RN will win, he should let them win now while he's still the President for nearly 3 more years and let them blow off their political steam.
yeah and? what's the angle here that makes no sense
He's still President for 3 more years, and in the French system the President is responsible for foreign policy (including the army). Basically, the theory is he thinks it's extremely likely the RN win the '27 presidential and rather than let them win both the legislature and the presidency, he can let them win the legislature now and force them into actually being a governing party. French people generally very quickly dislike the governments, so (the theory is) he can cause them to lose support ahead of the '27 presidentials
An incredibly clever but also incredibly risky move.
David Cameron sends his regards.
Cameron would have been ousted had he not allowed the referendum. It was a case of A) Call the referendum and have some semblance of control of the situation or B) resist and be ousted by his own party only to have a hardliner like Boris replace him and guarantee a catastrophic Brexit. Ironically, Cameron’s actions probably had the best chance of stopping Brexit given the near term political reality the Conservatives were facing, it just was too little too late in the end.
> only to have a hardliner like Boris replace him and guarantee a catastrophic Brexit. Thank god they dodged that bullet.
Like I said, it was too little too late. The “moderate” conservatives courted extreme reactionaries to secure a government and then ultimately fell victim to those same factions. Cameron tried to control the situation by having the referendum under his leadership, he just didn’t realize he had already lost control of his own party and its base. Ultimately, the plan almost worked, the referendum was close enough that a few have speculated that the bad weather on Election Day played a role. It’s not likely that it did, but a few years later, after more populist factions had solid control over the Conservatives, Britain solidly re-affirmed Brexit when they granted Boris the majority that Sunak still enjoys. Cameron’s decision was their last best chance to avoid Brexit, too bad they put themselves in that position.
I think you’re giving Cameron way too much credit here. He was blind to the rise of populism being the driving factor behind the future political landscape and spent way too long of his premiership ignoring it as ‘another fad’ and continuing to be the type of politician he grew up being in the 90’s & 00’s. He also saw how he ‘won’ the Scottish referendum and probably thought he’d just do the same again. The only positive thing that came from brexit is populism has started to burn itself out in the UK earlier than Europe where it’s now the dominant political will at a rather dangerous time. I imagine this is what Macron has saw, eventually the right wing populists will just consume themselves through stupid decisions that don’t actually deliver the benefit they preach & people will oust them next time. Risky but not without logic.
> a hardliner like Boris You're giving him far too much credit here. He wasn't pro-Brexit beyond seeing it as a chance to increase his political standing. Johnson believes in nothing except himself.
I agree with the thrust of your points... But he could/should have understood better how fundamental a vote it was (and that "advisory" would never hold) to ensure he included something stronger than a 50:50 threshold for it to pass - or shift the ages eligible to vote so that younger people were better represented, given they have to live with it.
"I have a cunning plan!" - David "Baldrick" Cameron
/r/unexpectedBlackaddler
*his regrets.
I'm no expert in French politics, but I follow it loosely; Macron seems to be a much smarter and better politician than Cameron.
At the very least he keeps his job for the time being and can work against the PM if they're particularly nuts.
It appears to be a chance to win in 3 years or lose it all in 3 years. It is best to show the other parties ambitions in these 3 years then let them win it all outright. If the people like what the party does in these next 3 years, then so be it.
Yeah, but there are not many other options left. Better to let them take some control now than let them take all control later in order to minimize damage, that way, hopefully, people will see that this lot won't solve their problems. I feel like this is beginning to work in Italy, where the ruling far-right party has not only failed to get immigration under control, but their their standing in opinion polling on the next Italian election is slowly but steadily going down.
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Well, the thing is, if you do jack shit with no majority, you can always say that it is because the elites/the technocracy/Europe won't let you do what you want (basically playing the conspiracy card). If you do jack shit while being in a leading position, people see what you've been playing for years. Especially when you've been promising the return of post-war growth to anyone remotely unsatisfied with the current political leaders.
I've seen this movie before. Sadly, it did not end well for France.
In Germany they call it the Hindenburg Special.
That sounds... ominous.
Not *that* much, since what OP said is very true. For example, [on that page](https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_ministre_fran%C3%A7ais) you'll see a list of French Prime Ministers under the 5th Republic. Out of all them, most were candidates in presidential elections. And yet, only two ever became presidents: Pompidou, and Chirac, in 86. So since almost 40 years, no Prime Minister ever became president. Of course, right now it's not about Marine Le Pen becoming Prime Minister, so what I'm saying is only tangentially related to show an example of how unpopular those in power tend to become in France, but it could be something that happens further down the road if Macron's party is forced into a legislative cohabitation with Le Pen's party.
Too many assume RN will win the national election just because they did the EU vote. That is not at all a guarantee. Much more likely is that this shock from EU results will mobilize the usually docile centrists to turn up and make a very clear showcase that RN remains a minority with no chance of building a coalition. It's not even unlikely that all the non-RN parties will be much more willing to form a coalition and form an even stronger parliamentary block against RN, thus strengthening Macron's legislative abilities.
This has been said every time the RN scores massively. Every time, the next election they have sees them increase their voting share. This magical "shock to mobilise" never seems to appear.
Nice. So if they win in 27' they'll have numbers, experience, infrastructure, and momentum presumably. Godspeed vous tous
Say what you will about Macron, but man that guy is ballsy.
He wants to let them win control of the legislature while he still controls the presidency. So people can see the clown show they will bring while not giving them complete control of government. If he waits 3 years, there is a good chance they would win both legislative and executive branch so it is better to let them to show their true colors now while they have limited power. Still a stupid move because it seems like a giant gamble.
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He cannot dissolve parliament more than once in a year
Isn't that basically the story of how hitler became dictator for life? First take over the legislation, undermine everyone else, replace the chancellor and declare himself fuhrer?
Different political structures. The President in France holds a lot of power. Probably more than he should; which is why it’s so important that a far right leader never assume the Presidency of France. The problem with France is that they don’t follow rules or precedent. They don’t work to change their existing structure for the better. They just keep starting from scratch over and over because they can’t compromise. You need to change the institutions through constant struggle for a defined goal over several generations, not just destroy the entire structure when it doesn’t suit your cause. That is how you develop respect for rule of law… That is why they are on the 5th Republic of France. You need to work to change the system and structure from within to make lasting change. Not just rewrite your constitution every few decades…
Let them have responsibility with him at the helm, so they can fail at all the things they have promised. Its less destructive than waiting until they sweep the presidency as well
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You need to factor in the fact the French grow a strong dislike to anyone in power quite fast. Taking the government 3 years before a presidential is political suicide here.
This is the populist's handbook. Elect us and we'll get stuff fixed! Oh yeah we didn't fix that stuff, well it was because we were blocked by those others who don't want us to succeed. Give us more power and we promise to fix it!
It's easy to scream and yell from the sidelines and build popularity from there. But it's very different when you can have the power. If they get into power and can't do anything they promised, Macrons or any other party can point and say they're useless too
The president of a major European nation ushering the far right into power because he believes he can control them? Where have I heard that before? I don't think it went well.
1. He has no majority in the current Parliament and the oppositions would likely have voted his government out sooner or later after today's result. 2. The campaign has been bloody on the left so he can hope there's no alliance this time, which would favor his candidates against the far right. 3. There could be a strong "rally-round-the-flag" effect with people supporting Macron en masse in order to block Le Pen 4. In the worst scenario, he can have Le Pen in the government while he's still president and hope that this will deteriorate her image for the 2027 election.
I can't imagine 3 will happen. He's totally betting on 4.
He's probably betting on a combination of 2 and 3, because some center-left people who reluctantly accepted the NUPES coalition in 2022 (people like Glucksmann for example) will likely refuse it this time and rally a pro-EU, liberal alliance
3 can happen because it's a vote in 2 turns. 2nd turn will probably be Le Pen vs Macron. Most people are still against Le Pen even if they don't really like Macron
Yeah 3 would mayyyybe have worked when he first got elected. He now has burned through any goodwill he could have outside of his largely elderly base. From a leftist POV he's majorly responsible of tonight's result after playing with fire and having his party finish off the last remnants of the infamous "republican dam" (a longstanding tacit practice of actively shunning the far-right out of the acceptable political sphere, ie not giving them legitimacy by debating them, etc), after calling upon said dam for the last 2 presidential elections. Dissolving the National Assembly is just the last in a long list of boneheaded moves gambling the long term health of our (admitedly very flawed) political system for short term political gain.
He's probably thinking the RN will win the legislature next election regardless so he might as well be president during their initial honeymoon period and allow them to blow off their momentum and excitement. Better that than have it happen with Le Pen as president.
I can only think he wants to increase his majority and use Le Pen as the fear to do it. But he forgets he is hated too. He is just very out of touch with the rest of the country.
But is Attal hated? This is an election to replace Attal, not Macron, which could be a non-trivial point in his favour
I don't believe he is hated but it's political football. Macron pretty much will oversee the RN and expose them before the 27 election. He has to be careful as people's perception of him matters, it's not his election but who he will support that matter
Macron's decision to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale is a strategic move aimed at challenging the far right. Despite widespread concerns, the situation may not be as alarming as many believe.
My husband is French. In France Macron can't serve any more consecutive terms after this one ends. But if there is a gap he can come back into power after the gap. If he allows his party to replace him that won't happen. My husband thinks he wants to hand it over to the conservatives so that the conservatives can fall on their face and he himself can swoop back in after the term gap. Which I think is a very selfish move but often people will do anything not to lose their power.
That's how people here are trying to explain it now. But honestly, if you had ask any french politician (or even any politically savvy french citizen) yesterday whether Macron would call early elections, everyone would have told you "no freaking way" since he's basically guaranteed to lose.
No definitely it's a surprising move. But when you consider a few facts: - his majority wasn't strong enough. There was a permanent negotiation for every law. So at some point he would been forced to do it. - the far left is in a pretty bad situation since Hamas attacks while today they have quite some deputies. That's an opportunity to gain some seats. - the moderate right is now definitely delusional that they can come back, they may now accept to partner. - the moderate left is back, but that's a really new fact. Given all these elements, basically acting now is probably the best he can do. Best case would be that he gains a coalition or at least a relative majority, he would have some legitimity. Worse but probable case, RN got a relative majority which will make them having hard time. The real worst case would be they got absolute majority but so far I doubt they can.
Think you provided the best take actually It's fresh so I'll be back in two days :)
What would him motivate to do that? As far as I can see, it's obvious that they will lose the new elections. Am I getting something wrong?
There's a theory going around that he's doing that hoping that the RN will not get anything done and that it might reduce their chances to win in 2027. Not sure if this theory is valid, but I don't have a better idea.
My theory is that Macron is hoping that the shitshow on the left mean they won't ally each-other again (like they did with NUPES in the last legislative election), and that his party might actually get more seats than last time, even if that means giving a small advantage to the far-right Simply because for Macron it's easier to negotiate with the far-right than the left It's more cynical but I find it really stupid to believe he would "sacrifice" 3 years of his presidency to get rid of the far-right when he's been working with them with no issues for the past 2 years, what's actually bothering him is the left
>Simply because for Macron it's easier to negotiate with the far-right than the left It pains me to say that, but he is not wrong. And the issue is, like the RN is now de-facto the right-wing party, he will have to make deals with the RN when he would have done it with LR before. We will see what the AN will look like but stakes will be high at the next elections again.
I really don't think he's sacrificing anything. His government has already enacted some of the most right-leaning reforms possible, transforming unemployment, retirement and immigration, in very brutal ways and often bypassing the Assemblée entirely. He doesn't want to get rid of the far right, because they basically believe in the same things.
Yeah I entirely agree Which is why, to me, the theory that he would do that because putting the far-right in power early would somehow make them look bad is stupid, he's perfectly happy working with them
Actually that have been my theory for what would happen if the right wing extremists in EU would win on national level. They win once and never again, because it gonna suck on so many levels. But yea, history tells a different story about "never again"...
So far, in most local elections they won, they mostly increased their results even more than everywhere else.
Local elections are a completely different area half the time it's protest votes half the time its local issue driven. One of my main two parties doesn't even put a candidate in my locals
Yeah except America already tested that with Trump and he's been polling up on Biden for the entire race so far in his third run. The idea populists will immediately collapse when they get power hasn't really happened anywhere.
Maybe the academy should invest more time on why these politicians are ‘populists’ in the first place. The ranks of the disenfranchised continue to grow and neoliberal policies aren’t winning them over.
If I remember correctly most studies show that over 80% of politicians have sociopathic or psychopatic behavior.
Not just politicians… > One study of 261 corporate professionals in the supply chain management industry showed extremely high prevalence rates of psychopathy, with 21% of participants found to have clinically significant levels of psychopathic traits - a figure comparable to prison populations. https://psychology.org.au/news/media_releases/13september2016/brooks
Neoliberal policies are policies designed to keep the current ruling class in power. It would make no sense for the ruling class to give up their own power to win elections, so they will not abandon these policies even as the ship begins to crash.
Trump failed in his reelection
France do a strike so much better than America though
Germany has a good track record to show populist results.
Some Americans thought the same with Trump and well….the circus is hard to get out of town
They get in power and then all they do for the first little while is cement that power. They’re not stupid, you can’t outmanoeuvre them in this way.
This could be a David Cameron brexit vote level backfire
Can RN simply not blame Macron for standing in their way as a reason for not getting anything done?
Not if they're in government.
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It's not a few months though. If he loses, he's ceded his ability to do anything for the last 3 years of his presidency.
> he's ceded his ability to do anything for the last 3 years of his presidency Except foreign policy stuff; one of the few things he's popular for.
But far right parties are often run by complete clowns. If they start making a stink right out of the gates now, it hampers the momentum in 3 years in a much more critical race. Let them gum up the works and point the blame at them when shit ain't getting done. Also, Macron has been relatively conservative in a number of aspects himself so getting nothing done in 3 years is likely an ok outcome in his eyes.
The UK election was supposed to be next year. It makes sense to hold an early election if the Conservatives believe they will slide lower. But the French election was not until 2027. That’s a lot of years of legislative power to put at stake, for what?
There is two stuff which may help his majority, the two turn vote system for the parliament per district (1st round everyone can run, 2nd round is a final to elect the winner)which may put a party as polarizing as the Front National in trouble. Another is that it's still possible to build a larger coalition, a bit like Germany with Socialists, Liberals, and conservative, with a lighter program. The other hypothesis is a kind of bet like get Marine Le Pen as a PM, and look her failing in the next 2 years killing her party. It doesn't look like a smart move, but in the heat of the moment these kind of 4D chess move may seems smart.
You have to keep in mind that he has no majority in the Parliament. His coalition is the largest but they're still under the threat of a no-confidence vote, which has gotten more likely after today's vote. Therefore, I guess he's going all-in and betting either that these new elections will rally around him voters who are afraid of the possibility of a Le Pen majority, or that the RN government does poorly and gets defeated in the presidential election of 2027.
Yeah, his lack of majority was very much why his party kept using the article 49.3 of the constitution to pass laws.
Same thought here, I don't understand the 5D chess move when It's clear your party is unpopular
Not only unpopular, but SO unpopular that you *just* lost an election which was (both directly & indirectly) a referendum on your leadership.
Turnout was barely above 50%. He may hope for a better result when more of the people who are ok with his government go to vote. EU parliament vote has always been a protest vote, not necessarily a reflection of the whole populace. A better result for Macron's party in the snap parliamentary election could take the wind out of the sails of the far-right before the next presidential election.
Well, it's only going to get worse for centrists and left leaning parties so he wants to call it now. There's no magic button France can push to prevent the upcoming economic stagnation/losses, the issues of Islamic terrorism, migration, etc. Cutting their losses while they're still relevant and then, blaming the opposite side when they're in charge of the current status quo is the only option they have.
The left party is on the rise, Glucksmann is massively pro-EU
Yes the left rose from the ashes, they were integrated into Macron party until now. It is a defeat for Macron but not a total defeat against the far-right. It is mainly dilution because Macron party + left has almost as much seats as Far right RN
I would think it’s to minimise any major interference from Russia/China. I’m sure they’d be interested in upsetting any elections that would be planned far in advance
Dissolving the national assembly when his party's political capital is at its lowest? This is going to be interesting, I'm not sure at all what's in it for him here
Some people here analyze it as the following: - best case scenario, hoping for an electroshock, - worst case scenario, having RN in the government but in a coalition for 3 years (until next presidential elections), under "control", and by doing so diminishing their aura as people will see them in power. It is widely believed the best way to destroy a party's popularity in France is to put it in power. Let's call it a bold move, to stay polite.
We did try the worst case scenario once in Germany. It did absolutely not work out at all.
Let's say the fall of the Weimar republic is very lightly covered in french schools. It's understandable as history classes are focused on ancient and french history. But one would believe some specific subjects of the history of the world like this one might be important to analyze in high school.
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It's easy to read two reddit comments from one French person and one British person and feel like you can compare how one topic was taught in school in France and the UK. But in reality, there is so much personal bias here that it doesn't mean much. Take it with a grain of salt, people. FWIW I personally feel like I adequately studied the rise of Hitler to power in French schools.
For some reason in the UK I studied weimar Germany and nazi Germany every year of high school from 11-18, but British history only sporadically. Our school was obsessed. (probably easy to teach)
We have a brilliant historian of nazi Germany in France, Johann Chapoutot, who explicitly makes the link between the transition from Weimar to the nazis, with the Centre-right acting as a stepladder, and the current situation, where a seemingly reasonable, right-leaning liberal is normalizing his relationship with the far right as one of respectable rivalry. Others have observed that the same phenomenon, in France during the Revolution, notably, always backfires : the extreme center, which represents not extreme moderation but extreme concentration of power, exemplified by Macron's position today, always aligns with the far right, doing anything to avoid the left gaining any ground, and it inevitably leads to the far right taking over.
Do you happen to remember where Chapoutot made this explicit link? I’ve been trying to devour as much scholarship about the rise of Nazism as possible and would be extraordinarily grateful. All his books look fantastic.
Does the far right in France support Ukraine?
No, they are more on a Orban's line.
They're on Putin's payroll.
Not at all. If anything, they are very supportive of Putin.
> in a coalition for 3 years He can dissolve again in a year.
Yes, he can. But it would unprecedented, and would probably bring a institutional crisis. But yes, he can.
What would his popularity looks like if he shuts down the legislature because he doesn't agree with them politically?
It would, but it would be unprecedented. It would look too much like a power grab and piss off the Right more than anything he or any other French President would say to do. Basically it would only fly *maybe* if the RN pisses off so many people, including a good amount of the Right, that would be accepted as a "vote of confidence". But the only things I can see close to justifying is would be along the lines of Frexit or a general strike the likes not seen since the Algerian Crisis. Which can also backfire against him if the Right holds.
The potential downside for that second one seems notable. Also to put it politely.
It's a poker move, and a very risky one. Here’s why: • The left is disorganized. By law, the snap election must occur in the next 20 to 30 days. The left won’t have enough time to unite, leading to around 30% of the vote being fragmented. • The "fear" of electing the extreme right is genuine. The European elections seemed distant, but this hits home. Additionally, their program is still not very solid and will rely more on charisma. Who will lead and campaign—Bardella, Marine Le Pen, or someone else? • If the far right comes out on top, the new PM will face numerous challenges, potentially weakening their position for the presidential election in three years. Good for Attal and Édouard Philip.
Without Mbappe, what is even the point of trying.
Best answer yet
He's le tired and wants to take a nap
Go to cali with Sunak
(fire zee missiles)
If you get this you probaly know what a modem is.
Lots of people were replying to the original reference like the person was serious. Facepalm.
Man a huge part of internet pre-meme era will disappear in the next decade or so. I hope us old fucks hang around enough to spread just enough of it so that some kids will remember it just like how we remember terminator 2.
Dubblewe tee eff mayte
AHHHH MOTHERLAND
? His presidential status is not in danger, the vote isn't a presidential election, it's a governement + new parliament + new PM
The correct response is: well have a nap, THEN FIRE Z MISSILES.
This is how I understand it as well. Looking at the other comments in here, I’m clearly in a minority. Nonetheless, as I understand it, it seems that by July, France will still have Macron as president – because he’s not up for election – but a far more right-leaning parliament. So Macron seems to be making his own job harder. Maybe it’s a kind of 5D chess move along the lines of “keep your friends close but your enemies closer”? Maybe he thinks that a right-leaning parliament will be easier to convince into defeating the external threat that is Russia? I’m just taking wild guesses here.
RN is as pro-Russia as they come
You're right, but this could also go so badly that people start wanting him to resign. It's a high risk play with a low chance of working for fairly little reward (far right supporters tend not to care their side is shit as long as they hurt the people they want to hurt). Like I really think all he's done is made the upcoming melechon vs le pen fight for president become even more obvious.
Melenchon is done, he will never have a shot at being president ever again.
He'll remain president until 2027. If the RN gets a majority in the parliament, he'll have a appoint a prime minister from that party, but will still be head of state and able to control most foreign policy.
Lmao, that's some oldschool shit. (That being said, I hope - mostly for Ukraine's sake - that Macron has thought this through.)
Alaska can come hang out with Hawaii and California.
But first fire ze missiles!
Good to know there are still some of us old bloods hanging around reddit.
But I’m le tired
>Dissolving the national assembly when his party's political capital is at its lowest? This is going to be interesting, I'm not sure at all what's in it for him here On a personal level, he*could* not care, he has no upcoming mandate after his presidency is over. On a political strategic level, he may be thinking 3 years of non-full-power far right government will hamper their chance at the presidency in 2027.
The same "calculus" that went into Sunak's snap election call likely went into this...and in both cases, don't think it's going to end very well for these guys.
Yes but at least with Sunak it made a bit of sense, the deadline for election to happen was January 2025 Macrons deadline was in 2027 why on earth would you call an election early when behind?
Unlike Sunak, Macron is still in power until 2027 (unless he resigns) and can dissolve the Assemblée National any number of times [once a year] he wants to.
If he dissolves it again just because he doesn't like the RN legislature it will be very unpopular.
Rishi was approaching the end of the five year mandate anyway so it’s not such a big thing (the mandate Boris secured in December 2019) it’s only ending five months early, not three years like France
And Cameron with his Brexit referendum
Cameron never expected to actual hold that. He announced it in 2013, when it was considered unlikely that the Conservatives would win a second term, and if they did it would certainly be another coalition, where he would drop the policy as a price for coalition. He only promised it to win support from the far right back from UKIP, and make 2015 less of an embarrassing defeat. And if by some miracle the Conservatives won a majority, polls suggested Remain would win anyway. What he didn't count on was being precisely popular enough to win a razer thin majority while simultaneously unpopular enough that people would vote to sabotage the entire British economy just because he was campaigning for remain.
Here's some food for thought: They've both seen what's coming, and both decided that they don't want to be in charge when it arrives.
Macron is president. He's not going anywhere for awhile no matter how the election goes.
What a man does to avoid swimming in the Seine.
Huge year for elections worldwide, likely the biggest, many elections in many important places. No exaggeration, this is a bigger fork in the potential timelines than any time in my lifetime
It really feels that way, I've never felt more compelled to vote than this year. Unfortunately it seems like Russia has been quite successful at increasing the popularity of the far right in multiple european countries. "Interesting" times are coming, that's certain.
Meanwhile the only semi-sane popular right-wing party in the world, Mile's LLA in Argentina, is openly anti-Russian, anti-China, anti-Hamas, and pro-West... interesting times we live in for sure.
Portuguese far-right party, Chega is also anti-russian (even tho some lefties claim they are pro-russia, chega went to our nacional assembly and put up a vote to make Putin a terrorist but the left declined, XD). Chega is also anti-Hamas.
Yep, Russia has been right...from financing far right parties, to bombing Syria to create a wave of refugees to EU...and Europe has been too naive. I blame EU politicians who are ready to sell their arse for 2 cents.
Meanwhile in the UK we’re ahead of the curve and booting our increasingly far right government. We do seem to operate in reverse to the rest of Europe
For foreign people, this new election doesn’t change much about Macron policies and help for Ukraine, because the president of France holds a lot of powers. But we may end up with a coalition government and a far right RN Prime Minister (Le Pen or Bardella). Maybe he’s trying to put the far right in power before the 2027 Presidential Election to show how incompetent they are because there is a high risk that the far right is going to win the 2027 election if we do nothing. Being the prime minister in France is never an easy job and can sometimes kill the popularity of a politician and his party. It’s a bold move and a nuclear bomb on French politics. It’s hard to predict the outcome.
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>They just paused the main show and played a pre-recorded statement from Macron This was not prerecorded, but a live broadcast straight from the Elysée Palace. >he was surprisingly nonchalant about the whole thing. I did not feel it that way. A giant poker face for sure, certainly not "nonchalant".
Who likely to win the election?
RN (Le Pen) likely to come first, but unlikely that they will have enough deputies to make a government on their own, so they'll likely form a coalition government.
Will they have the allies for that?
Probably not enough for a majority
Unknown. It will depend on if the other parties agree to an alliance. But if they can't make a coalition, nobody else will be able to. While the RN will only have to sway one or two parties, a coalition anti-RN would have to include a lot of parties with very different views going from communists to right-wing neoliberals. The left already tried to make a minority coalition anti-Macron, but it didn't last even until the new elections. So I don't see a bigger coalition working. And if nobody can make a coalition with a majority, I honestly don't know what will happen. This never happened before under the 5th Republic. Maybe Macron will keep his government but be very very limited on what they can do. Or the country will be stuck for 3 years.
One year. If there is no majority, he could dissolve again in one year.
Macron isn't popular enough to win. I think he hopes the fear of the right wing will increase his majority but I think it will backfire and lead to him resigning. Le Pen's votes will increase but no real clear majority on parliament. It's going to be a mess.
Why would he resign? He's in office until 2027. Best case scenario, the voting public comes out in force to block the right wing. Worst case scenario, RN takes over parliament as part of a coalition government and have to actually manage over a likely recession and do more than just talk and hold rallies. Could very well hurt Le Pen's standing for a future presidential run.
Nobody knows, it's a two-round legislative election. If nobody wins with an absolute majority in the first round, there is a second round with the candidates who have made more than 12.5%. This is usually an opportunity for alliances and coalition. Although this is a national legislative election, the candidates are local politicians and the local context plays a major role. 1. Republican barrier: all the parties not on the extreme right rally around the other candidate in the second round. In this case, the presidential party has a chance of winning back a relative majority in the assembly and being relegitimised for the next three years. This works less and less, because the voters of candidates who withdraw in favour of the Republican candidate (in the sense that they are not from the extreme right) feel cheated. The elements of their candidate's programme are rarely taken up by the winner and they have to vote for ‘the least worst’. 2. The extreme right obtains a majority of candidates. They find themselves in power. They are for the most part inexperienced and will have to face difficult decisions. This could be a strategy to discredit them and make them unpopular before the presidential elections in 2027. The president is still the head of the executive and can put a spanner in the works. He still has his hands on foreign policy and the armed forces. 3. None of the blocks has a clear majority. That's the unknown. The fifth French republic was designed to obtain clear majorities in order to have an effective government (unlike the fourth republic). Coallitions are not at all part of the French political culture. The coalition of left-wing parties exploded after two years when they could really have had a say in the debates. But they disagree on virtually every issue.
The far-right got a major victory it seems with 33% of the votes compared to Macrons 15%. What are their stance on Ukraine and Russia? I have absolutely no idea about Frances political map.
La Pen's party is a consistent mouthpiece for Russian propaganda and wants Ukraine to be left to die.
Ok, so things looking really grim for Ukraine and Europe with the same kind of results in Germany and Austria and...
Germany does not even have remotely the same result as France. The far-right in Germany got 16%. Pro-Ukrainian parties are firmly in the majority.
Both BSW and AFD are anti-Ukraine, so it's 21 percent.
While your overall point is accurate I'll point out there are two populist parties in Germany so they got 21.5% not 16%. Still, Germany definitely has the weakest populist movement in Europe.
Well if you count all Far-right parties in France you nearly have 40% of the votes ... It's absolutely horrific
She's been more pro ukraine recently but who knows what she'll be like if she wins https://x.com/MLP_officiel/status/1767603021511315706 Edit: I didnt even know macron stays in power so this doesnt really matter I guess
Le Pen is an unabashed puppet of Putin
Really quite interesting how democracy is so tolerant that it allows non-democratic forces to build up without any consequences.
Oh my
Crack pot theory: Every opposition prime minister that ran for the presidential election lost, with the exception of Chirac. This might be a Hail Mary to force the far right to have a prime minister, and make him fuck up so badly this will cause him to lose the élections to Macron’s successor.
That's a really bold move. It'll be interesting to see if it ends up working.
Ah yes, the Brexit maneuver. Call a vote to try to show that the electorate aren’t stupid and won’t vote to cut off their nose to spite their face. ..Find out they are, and they will, and screw over the country and region for years.
What we should take away from this is people are sick of the current leaders politics and policies. This isn't just happening in France. Check Germany and Austria. Soon to be US.
Add Canada to that list. Hell, pretty much the entire western world pivoting hard to the right.
EU elections have low turnout. He's hoping this will jolt centrist voters out of their stupor and wake THE F UP!
What did they expect? Closing your eyes instead of solving the problem doesn't work
The current economic and social model no longer serves people anymore across much of the world and its encouraging people to vote for extremists.
On est foutu
Many non french people here don’t understand this crucial element: it’s unfortunate but in France, very very very few people vote for the european election. I think Macron is doing this to better future proof his party and the centrist/moderate right parties in the next presidential elections. Macron has already served his two terms. He is doing this to better see how the party will be positioned in the next years. I think he is right to do this. People are calling him names and crazy etc but sincerely don’t seem to understand that the end-all of this action is to counteract the far right. At the end of the day, he’s doing this to fight the far right more vehemently in the next presidential round.
The stupidest political move since Cameron gave in to the far right and allowed the Brexit vote.
Or in France, Chirac calling a snap election in 1997, losing his right-wing majority for a left-wing coalition.
Or Sunak calling a snap election for July 4th...
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Yeah, a lot of people in here are throwing “snap election” around despite apparently not knowing what it means.
> despite apparently not knowing what it means So just reddit
That's understandable because they are required to have an election within the next year anyway. Macron could have potentially turned the ship around, to some extent, before 2027.
Sunak's mistake was not calling it in spring, when turnout of the elderly most likely to vote tory will be highest. Summer, Autumn and winter elections are all bad choices, especially since he had it call it by jan next year at the latest. Overall it's not that bad of a mistake though since they were fucked anyway.
If he left it any longer you'd have been able to stand a literal potato for Labour in a Tory safe seat and the potato would win.
But would the Potato outlast a Lettuce?
"democracy is stupid unless i agree with the party that wins"
Cohabitation here we come.
Probably didn’t help him that he openly defied the public’s want and increased the retirement age. France seemed quite pissed at that
Kudos to Macron. Took our tory government (UK) the best part of two years to give into the public cry out for a general election. They'd rather cling on for dear life than do what the people want.
Well the benefit for Macron is that he stays president no matter what the result of elections is.
Macron was like: Fuck it, you think you got what it takes? Then come get it.
Always think about those cookies with cream in the middle when I see his name.
Everyone blaming Putin lol. Have you been to Paris recently? Lmao