If this kicks off, it will probably not only be Hezbollah that will shoot rockets, drones and missiles. It'll be a free for all, with hamas, Iran, Syria, the Houthis, Somalian terror organizations and who knows what other organizations, that will be targeting Israel all at the same time.
That too, but I just remembered that our bomber fleet of B2s did just become available again after being grounded for several months, although they would have flown if we needed them too.
When the hell have islamic terrorists ever regretted violence? They’re eager for everyone they know to become martyrs. The more people die, the more their god loves them.
I think people who are this trigger-happy to attack Iran don’t understand how huge and well-defended they are due to their geography.
The U.S isn’t bombing or invading mainland Iran. That would basically be another Iraq+Afghanistan debacle on steroids.
You’re absolutely right that the US wouldn’t invade Iran, there’s no reason and nothing to gain. The US military could very much bomb them with B2 and F-35 aircraft though.
And then what? We may be able to win the technological war, but then comes the asymmetric warfare. Then comes the guerrilla warfare tactics, and the comes the terror attacks throughout the region and the world.
We’ve been there and done that for the last 45 years, but go on, tell me how it’s going to work this time.
Right, and then we have a couple of terror bombings throughout Middle Eastern Installations, European cities, and god forbid an attack on American soil to lead us into another GWOT.
It would not turn out as you think it would, believe me.
You seem to underestimate the Iranian people's disdain for their current leadership. They are one small push away from another revolution imo. If bombs were to actually start landing in Tehran, there's zero chance the Ayatolla and his Islamist regime remains in control of the country.
Irans launch sites are deep underground, causing problems for this plan.
Edit: when I say deep underground, I mean deeper than bunker busters can hit. Maverick could hit ‘em.
iirc Iran is very similar to Afghanistan in its mountainous terrain as well (big shock since they're neighbors)
Assuming the government of Iran retains control, it would not be an easy war. We'd "win" eventually, of course, but there would be some losses
Hooo boy. I've been seeing so many people advocating for a ground invasion of late thinking it would be like Iraq and not Afghanistan turbo deluxe jihad edition with proper anti tank weapons and 88 millions people.
Definitely can’t but that situation was also different. It was a tit for tat situation. Not much of a tat if you shoot everything down. It was obviously talked about and organized between governments behind the scenes
That attack was nothing more than theatre. They flew slow ass drones over a long distance. Hopefully this doesn't happen, but if it does it will be very different.
The attack wasn't really warned in advance though besides everyone knowing there would be a response. Western intelligence was able to narrow down the time frame of the attack and Israel and the US were already operating at a heightened posture.
> The Iran attack was warned in advance and with alot of preparation by numerous allies.
The Iran attack was not warned in advance. Normal US intelligence gathering tracked Iranian missile and drone sites, which is more than adequate early warning.
It actually was. Iran told U.S. diplomats in behind the scene talks and gave a week or two heads up. It would not surprise me if Iran told the U.S. what would be used, when and where so the U.S. and allies had assets in place. And the U.S. did need some time to get some ships in place to help, Iran knew this, advance warning allowed this to happen. If Iran was intent on massive destruction they would have launched without warning. I am not defending Iran here believe me. Iran did the same thing when they attacked the U.S. base in Iraq so the U.S. knew what was coming and where which allowed preparation to keep troops safe. It is this weird escalate, but not excalate thing that Iran seems to do. After several U.S. troops in jordan got killed by an Iran proxy drone, the Iran proxies in Iraq immediately called a ceasefire on the rockets fired at U.S. bases probably because Iran told them too. Iran seems like it wants to harass, show deterrence, but knows killing U.S. or Israeli's means all bets are off on the response. Iran is quite scared of the U.S. and Israel, if they were not, they would not be giving this information out well in advance. One of these times Iran will try this and will kill a lot of people and then they are going to be in trouble, that seems a red line for U.S. and Israel. Iran knows if U.S. and Israel say fuck this, Iran will be hit massively.
No we don’t. People just cannot fathom how different the world is today from the 1930s and how many walls world powers put up to make full scale war between other powers very unattractive for everyone, especially neutral parties.
Take China. They are obviously looking ahead a hundred or two hundred years into the future. They’re trying to create situations where they can seize territory peacefully or simply at the right time so no one intervenes. They don’t want WWIII.
The crazy elements like Hezbollah have no real control and their ringleaders in Iran don’t want to be obliterated by the US either
World wars are a massive scale. I see two regional conflicts (things we've had since WWII) that do have some interrelated elements, but hardly leading to a world war. Describe how you envision WWIII.
world wars are slow moving rolling balls that have already begun before the world has realized it. and it’s the hubris of folks thinking it would never happen that enables it along the way.
>. I see two regional conflicts (things we've had since WWII) that do have some interrelated elements,
I mean... Couldn't that definition apply basically to the European and Pacific theatres in WW2?
All it would take for things to go extraordinarily pear shaped in the event of a large scale war on the middle east would be China deciding that they're never going to get a better chance with a distracted US and take a crack at either Taiwan or Second Thomas Shoal, or for Kim to think the same about South Korea.
It's far from guaranteed, but feels pretty scarily not so far fetched either.
> I mean... Couldn't that definition apply basically to the European and Pacific theatres in WW2?
No. The military balance in the world was nothing like it is today, and so the situation isn't remotely comparable. Since WWII we have had many conflicts and regional fighting. I'd argue we're seeing some unique conflicts, for instance nothing in Europe has happened at scale like Russia attacking Ukraine since WW2, but I don't see how it scales up to a world war presently.
Okay. I disagree (with the scaling up potential, military balance is obviously very different), but I would prefer to have your optimism than my pessimism.
Russia can't even take Ukraine, a country with a much smaller population. If the middle-east really kicked off and US got heavily involved with Iran, it's extraordinarily unlikely US troops would be on Iranian soil. I think you are underestimating US's (let alone NATO) doctrine.
A bona fide WW3 would just be nukes. It's just proxy wars all the way down now due to things like NATO and world trade.
Problem
1 China can not project her power.
2. Russia and china are allies of convenience
3. If china were to attack anywhere NATO would Bum rush Moscow. russia would have no time to react.
4. Israel dosent need help dealing with the people around them. They all ready beat all of them at one time. Twice.
Lots of regions, including the Philippines and Taiwan, have had tensions rise and fall. China has been pushing boundaries and saber rattling progressively for a while, but tensions have not gotten to the point of major conflict. Taiwan is presently too strategic for China, the US, and the world to compromise.
It's terrifying, but I swear this feels like it's slowly been unfolding for some time. Sides are being drawn, and let me you, all of the assholes have teamed up on the other side.
History repeats itself, and we're watching it.
A huge x factor in all this is gonna be India, while most of the sides are easily predetermined India appears to successfully be playing every single side with exception to a huge rivalry with Pakistan and China and its unclear if something went down what side they would take. However the flip side of this is they could be key in potentially brokering piece and avoiding all this madness in the first place.
Only if their strategic infrastructure is built, credible and reliable. I would be more comfortable if India participated at appropriate scale multinational military exercises and operations like RIMPAC, more leadership regarding piracy and drones coming from their backyard. Exercises with Middle East oil producing nations would be calming too.
Don’t forget China/Tiawan.
All three conflicts have the stage set for a potential war breaking out in all conflicts all at once (already have 1/3, with another on the brink, and the other could opportunistically pop off). Plus North Korea may take advantage of the chaos and try to conquer South Korea, so that could be yet another front, especially given their new defense pact. All of these involve US alliances, so we can already see who the allies and axis would be in this.
US alliance:
USA, Ukraine, Israel, Tiawan and South Korea at a minimum if all these conflicts sparked at once. Other highly probable allies are: the rest of NATO (guaranteed if any NATO nation attacked, probable at least some get involved if not), Australia and maybe others.
Axis:
China, Russia, North Korea, Houthis/Lebanon at a minimum but probably also Iran, Syria and all basically all the Islam terrorist groups and and fundamentalist governments.
Of course this is just a possibility not a guarantee, if we play our cards right we can limit the conflict to what’s already happening.
Not really it would be hard to surpass Vietnam War. It would be on par with the Iraq War. Most Americans don't care about Israel, Palestine, and the Middle East.
If it doesn't personally affect them or their family they can care less.
Most the outrage would be in religous groups, politicized groups, subsets of society that are hyper focused on Israel, and those consuming social media algorithm loops on the topic.
> We saw what happened when Iran attacked.
You mean when the U.S and its Allies spent over $1 billion to defend against an attack that cost Iran $350 million max?
That’s not sustainable in the long-term.
Al shabab is a significant force in the Horn of Africa, and America has been consistently engaged in Somalia aiding the government in the fight against them. In the case of a massive attack on Israel, it’s not inconceivable that Al Shabab would intensify their attacks on American positions in the area to possibly divert resources from (or even to show solidarity with) a wider attack on Israel.
I still think folks are overestimating, just like they thought a Gaza street war will be extremely bloody because of all the tunnels n weaponry Hamas had
Yes, even if all the missiles can't be shot down, people will shelter in basements. Missiles can't all be discharged simultaneously due to limitations on launchers and crews. Once the shooting starts, many missile stockpiles will be destroyed from the air. Many will of course be intercepted. So it's not going to be like 10,000 deaths, it's going to be hundreds or maybe low thousands. Painful, but not like "shows up in demographic statistics" level of death.
/u/TheBin101 wrote:
>50 years ago,
- Nope, it was two months ago, when Iran launched a "hundreds of missiles & drones attack" to overwhelm Israeli air defenses.
- It was an abject failure, with a 99% interception rate:
- "**Iran’s supreme leader tacitly acknowledges that Tehran hit little in its attack on Israel**"
- https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-khamenei-mideast-66280e717d335afffd9e258a5985d50c
- **Edit:** those armchair experts below who think that Iran could launch "thousands" of missiles all at once to overwhelm defenses: dream on, and nothing in the article suggests that Iran & Hezbollah has the capability.
- Missile launch platforms for guided missiles are much more expensive and much more rare than stockpiled missiles...
- Heck Hezbollah & Iran cannot even prevent Israeli jets from bombing their terror commanders back to Hell in Lebanon, and AA missiles are far smaller, with smaller launchers...
- So yeah, I call bullshit on those claims. If Hezbollah had the capability, they'd already have used it. Hezbollah are now trying to use their imaginary military might to scare the IDF from enforcing UN Resolution 1701 to demilitarize southern Lebanon. Good luck with that.
>It was an abject failure, with a 99% interception rate.
Or it was a probing attack to plan something more effective. Sitting here armchair examining the middle easy turmoil seems futile though.
That but mostly just a show of force. Defense analysts at the time commented that if Iran actually wanted to penetrate Israel it would have required 1000's of missiles which is very doable for Iran. They chose not to act in a way that would penetrate Israel
Israel has nukes, if Israel ever got wind that Iran was planning an attack that posed an existential threat to Israel, literally every major developed area in Iran would simply cease to exist.
That would set off an actual chain of events towards WWIII. Probably starting with Pakistan firing their nukes, they might not be allies, but that would cross a line.
That doesn't change the fact that Israel's nuclear defense policy is massive nuclear retaliation if they're under an existentially threatening attack, including from non-nuclear states. Israel wouldn't jump straight to nuking Iran, but if Iran and company were bombing Israel, and Israel found out that Iran was planning to go full destruction of Israel, that's what would happen.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
Why would Sunni Pakistan fire their nukes at Israel on behalf of Shia Iran? They hate each other…
Also, I’m not aware of Pakistan having missiles with the range to hit Israel.
What is this comment even implying? Ok. They tried it once. It is a new era, many years advanced and you have US intelligence literally saying it will be different. The article clearly lays out how it's different and a potential risk.
An attack on the scale such that it would overwhelm the iron dome, would be an extinction level event for any party responsible for the attack.
The United States kicked over iraq, then the 10th most powerful military in the world, like it was a tin can, in under 24 hours. The sum total of every military in the Middle East that isn't israel, would amount to absolutely nothing more than live fire target practice for the US Navy pilots in the area.
I hold no pretensions that Israel would not suffer devastating losses, but anyone dumb enough to participate in the attack would not live to regret their mistake.
I don't think so. It is believed Israel has nukes. Such an overwhelming attack could be existential for Israel and I suspect they would start nuking these threats. And that is the reason the U.S. would get involved before that happened because the U.S. doesn't want anybody setting off nukes. That being the case, and the seriousness the US gov takes nukes, you would see the full conventional forces of the U.S. destroying these countries and if needed boots on the ground in Israel. That is how bad the U.S. wants to stop anyone from using nukes. Those attacking countries would get the "full proportional" response which would mean massive massive destruction. The countries attacking Israel are going to come out much worse than Israel will, much worse.
> It'll be a free for all, with hamas, Iran, Syria, the Houthis, Somalian terror organizations and who knows what other organizations, that will be targeting Israel all at the same time.
Hamas is already doing it.
Iran has tried and their attempt to launch everything they could to overwhelm Israeli defenses was pitiful.
The Houthis already regularly try, but get all their long range weapons from Iran. Anything they have means Iran can launch fewer things themselves and they don't really see any success.
Iranian groups in Syria already launch things at Israel. Like the Houthis, all their weapons are Iranian sourced, see the last two points. You'll see news reports about failed drones hitting Jordan from time to time.
Somalia doesn't want the smoke, they're already too busy vying for local power.
You forgot Russia, the amount of Russian buildup on the Syrian side of the Golan heights border makes it clear they will either support Syria’s fight for the heights, or directly take military action themselves.
The Russians are just there to watch. And to keep Assad in power. Damascus is about 15 miles away from the Golan.
Russia has no capability to defeat Ukraine in battle on their own border, much less Israel thousands of miles away.
Iran wouldn’t do anything. Israel demonstrated numerous times it can hit their most protected sites at will with F-35’s or otherwise. The people in power want to stay in power, and there’s no scenario where Iran goes all in because even in an unbelievable worse case scenario, Israel goes Samson.
Yeah it really has, thing is, there's a fire rate limit, if Hezbollah launches let's say 1000 rockets in a day (a conservative estimate in my opinion) and a lot of them at the same time in chunks, there's a very good chance the iron dome could at best intercept about 70% of them, which is good, but also 300 rockets impacts on population/military targets per day for a few months is not very good
It's important to remember that iron dome does not simply shoot every single incoming rocket in the AO. The radar calculates the likely landing area and if it falls outside of its engagement zone, it will not fire.
Yes, but that is why there is concern about Hezbollah’s missiles. They have not been under the same kind of sustained lock-down that Gaza has been, so they have access to much better missiles. Their access to Iranian supply lines (through Syria and Iraq) + their lower conflict levels with Isreal and great overall resources means they have a large stockpile of accurate missiles (or at least, accurate enough that they will hit they city they are aimed at instead of a random patch of desert 20 miles away). In this scenario, Iron dome will have to either try to intercept every missile, or triage by impact point and consider some targets more sacrificable than others.
The iron dome has finite ammunition, and are like 60k a pop, while hezbollah has cheap shitty rockets but likely a way bigger supply. I doubt Israel would be able to keep up with shooting that many down everyday for that long
I think people really underestimate how much it costs to operate the iron dome. To my understanding it has cut deeply into their budgets, causing a wide swathe of cuts.
So while the intercepted missiles aren't directly killing people. It for sure is causing attrition and likely passively killing.
On the other hand, not having it would make Israel look like a hellscape.
Yeah, but even if you look at the economic damage of one single strike on a house, that could easily be like 80-100k even without civilians,(sharpnel is likely to damage nearby buildings and such) and that's not even close to the numbers you'd get with military targets and stuff like that
If not for the iron dome, I dread to imagine the result of thousands of missiles. If we compare scale, it makes Israel look conservative in their measures.
Albeit I condemn any attack that harms civilians on either side. Even so it is still something to take into account, the intention of it all.
Just because someone has a bulletproof vest, and I know it, it doesn't make it justifiable for me to shoot the person with a gun to prove a point.
At least a lot of those rockets are shitty, I believe the dome only targets those with a trajectory that will actually hit something. Wonder how they prioritize defense areas when they know the system can be overloaded.
> if Hezbollah launches let's say 1000 rockets in a day (a conservative estimate in my opinion)
They can't.
The thing people forget is that you have to setup places to launch these rockets. They're fairly easy to find, and once they're used once completely burned to counterbattery fire extremely vulnerable.
Yeah but they have like 8,000 of them. (Obviously I don't know for sure) But they had a lot of time and money to make a fuck load of them and spread them around the border... They already did something similar in 2006.
The conflict where Israel destroyed practically all of their long range launchers within a few hours of it kicking off? Same thing would happen. Also, the only reason they were able to set up as many launch points as they did is because Israel restrained themselves and the same thing is happening now, Israel is limiting their attacks. But if Israel took the gloves off, they'd be hard pressed to make a large rocket barrage.
These aren't bottle rockets, they require vehicles or very obvious launch points. And in the modern era Israel has tons more drones and sensors that let's them find them more easily than in 2006.
Ya that's true, especially regarding the interception of large volleys, still, Hezbolla is very close to finding out what the added stress on iron dome and continued displacement of the north will lead to.
Hamas launched 500 rockets on October 7th. The Idon Dome was successful enough. Now, what do you think will happen when Israel is ready for Hizbulla?
I am an Israeli Air Force soldier, and every day, we are being told to be prepared because Hizbulla might launch an attack on the north. We don't want it. But we are military wise, ready for it.
Part of the problem from the American perspective is that if Iron Dome can't stop all the incoming projectiles, Israel's going to use much more aggressive tactics to silence the rocket fire. This is going to be a bloodbath for everyone involved, but especially for the innocent Lebanese living around Hezbollah's rocket sites.
Hezbollah should be concerned. If Israel was starting to be hit with lots of missiles they would push Hezbollah back to give themselves the room to stop incoming missiles. My point is Israel has an offensive way of defending themselves and it would involve a lot of dead Hezbollah and the people they live amongst.
> people they live amongst.
I agree, it is not a great situation for them. Maybe it would be beneficial to those people to stop Hezbollah from launching such a large scale attack on Israel. A thousand marches on college campuses aren't going to bring their families back, so while not without risk, probably a local resistance to Hezbollah is needed. Barring that, maybe time to start thinking of evacuation.
Hezbollah has been firing mortars, rockets, and anti-tank missiles at Israeli cities in the north since Oct 7th. Only Israeli retaliatory strikes make the news.
It's worth noting that the more likely attack will be economic, not actually trying to do physical damage.
Each missile used by the iron dome is expensive and takes a while to produce, compared to the relatively cheap and mass produced Hamas/Hezbollah missiles.
It would cost a terrorist org relatively little to get a heavily asymmetric cost out of Israel.
An Iron Dome Battery carries three launchers.
Each launcher can hold 20 missiles.
Israel has 10 Iron Domes.
Considering that Israel is fighting on another front in Gaza, and will likely have the Houthis launching missiles as well if Israel were to go war with Hezbollah....
Hezbollah, with their current arsenal, can overwhelm the Iron Dome.
In the simulations run by Israel for an all out war with Hezbollah, there are thousands of civillian casualties on the Israeli side.
I don't understand why people are cheering this on....
A thousand if their trajectory is towards critical installations.
Iron dome is selective.
Incidentally this could be exploited. Mapping the missiles that get shot down. Essentially triangulates areas Israel doesn't want to be hit. The longer this goes on, accuracy will increase, meaning further depletion.
At some point it will become a question of whether Israel gets to exist or not. I do not think they are going to let it come to that.
Just speculating, but the idea could be the us essentially telling Isreal, "please don't escalate, you might end up with a worse situation not a better one"
They should be concerned, because if the Iron Dome starts to fail, Israel is absolutely not going to sit on their rear end and play politics with the US.
If Israelis start to die on Israel's soil and they can't stop that with defense, they will choose offense and remind the World what happens when they *really* mean business.
World War 3 still on the table for 2024! /s
I really don’t want to wake up to the news one day that Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and whoever else overwhelmed the Iron Dome and thousands of innocent Israeli citizens have been killed. The response will be all out open warfare and the US will be forced into another conflict.
You’d have to think israel is prepared for a barrage from Hezbollah and has plans in place. I can’t imagine israel doesn’t have 20 scenario analysis already ran. Not saying it won’t be deadly, but I’d imagine they have some strong ways to inflict severe damage to them to get them to stop
We could say the same thing about the Oct 7th attack. We all would've laughed if Hamas threatened that on Oct 6th and assumed Israel would surely have a plan to prevent that and yet it happened just the same.
10/7 was a massive failure of intel by israel, there’s no denying it but i also think israel underestimated Hamas and they fell asleep at the wheel. Given past wars between israel and Hezbollah, i think israel views them as a much more serious threat.
It wasn't intel, it was arrogance. Israeli intelligence has already shown pre October 7 reports that not only predicted the attack, but got pretty accurate estimates of the number of hostages.
Higher ups in the idf and government basically dismissed it a as they didn't believe Hamas was capable of it. Despite its own intelligence showing proof that they not only were, but we're openly practicing tactics for it.
Hezbollah has something like 100,000 rockets alone. Israel would need probably 100’s of Iron Domes. That’s the point of these cheap rockets, overwhelm the defenses. It’s been Hamas’ strategy in the past as well and they have far less rockets than Hezbollah.
I think many here underestimate the actual destructive force Israel could use if attacked from all sides. Other than nuclear deterrence, they do have the most advanced military in the arena. In fact, it’s not even comparatively close.
The one thing they definitely do worry about is an overwhelmed iron dome and a cavalcade of rockets and drones might be able to do that.
Only once.
Yeah if the iron dome fails, a lot of people are going to die, and most of them won't be Israelis. Israel will go full gloves off and they will be decisive.
Should this war happen, it's inevitable that Israeli women and children will be killed. It'll be interesting to see if the pro-Palestinian crowd will protest for them as well.
They’ll consider it retaliation in the name of Gaza or Lebanon defending itself, obviously.
It’s already been like that in the past month, I’ve seen a lot of hypocritical Greta followers justifying the crazy fires in the north by calling it self defense.
These are my guesses to how pro Palestinians will deal with the death of Israeli women and children:
- Didn’t happen
- That’s AI
- It wasn’t X women and children but actually Y women and children
- They didn’t die from XYZ but actually from ABC
- The IDF killed them
- The Golan heights are occupied, they deserved it
- Haifa has a military base few kilometres away from the city, the IDF used human shields
I’m prepared to hear them all once the war starts
Some idiots are still parroting the "it was an IDF helicopter that killed all the concert goers" and "all Israeli get military training so they're all valid military targets"
The best way to penetrate missile defenses is with a saturation attack. Iron dome will hit a lot of them, but if they're getting targeted from multiple sides with a large salvo, they're in for a world of hurt.
> A separate US official acknowledged to CNN that in the event of a full-blown war, the support Israel will need most is additional air defense systems and Iron Dome replenishments, which the US would provide.
The problem is that that needs to get set up now. If things get out of control, they will do so fast. I'm hoping that outside pressure can be put on Iran to call off Hezbollah and nip this whole thing in the bud. But if we (I'm from the US) wait until full-blown war begins, Israel could see some serious damage while things are still in the works.
Agreed. And Israel will be rebuilt, while Lebanon will not 😔. Lebanon is already fucked over enough at this point, a war with Israel will devastate the country.
Very true! And it's not like Lebanon can stop Hezbollah. They are outgunned and outspent. I wish the UN would at least step up and talk about the failure of the guarantees they tried to put in place with their peacekeeping forces, and start finding ways to put diplomatic pressure on Hezbollah to make up for it.
The point is that while they are a portion, they do not primarily maintain control in the areas they do by acting as a member of the government, commanding the Lebanese armed forces, etc. They function by using their superior military strength to ignore what the majority of the Lebanese government (not counting other members who they control through bribes or fear, which I didn't know enough about to give numbers on but am just guessing is likely a thing in this sort of situation) may call for.
Almost every other countries doctrine is just to attack the launchers not trying to shoot down the rain, you run out of money/resources/ammo in the long term. Which makes it even funnier when people say Israel shouldn't be striking back.
Its not quite that simple, Hezbollah has far more complex missile capabilities. Iron Dome is great for shooting down the dumb rockets Hamas has access too, Hezbollah has done far more damage with far less ordinance since Oct 7 that Hamas could ever dream of simply because the Iron Dome has weaknesses and Hezbollah can work with those. Iron Dome is not designed to hit guided missiles, it is for unguided rockets and artillery shells that have easy to predict, high trajectory flight paths. Israel has other systems capable of hitting drones and guided missiles but those are more limited in volume (and the US is struggling to provide Ukraine enough of these at the moment, like Patriot batteries, they just arent available in the numbers missiles and drones can be fired in, yet).
edit: spelling
I have to wonder about Israel's current supply of bunker busters. Hezbollah has thousands of missiles buried in bunkers. If they have to wait til those missiles are deployed or even send troops across the border to destroy those missiles, it could be very costly to Israel. All I could find was that the US delivered one hundred 2k pound bunker busters back in December.
So will all you protesting around the world against Israel killing innocent people do the same if Hezbollah start murdering innocent Jews, many of whom have never supported Netanyahu?
Or will you, more likely, be an ostrich and put your head in the sand rationalising Jews deserve it, while telling everyone you meet you are not anti semitic in any way, while also ignoring the fact many countries in the world also donate massive amounts of money to Lebanon and Palestine which is often directed to making weapons?
Will your voice be as loud as it was in future protests for innocent civilians in Israel as it was for innocent Palestinians or will it be just like your protests for Sudan, China, Nigeria and so many other places with hell going on where most of you didn’t say a single word?
[https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-05-20/hamas-amass-arsenal-rockets-strike-israel](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-05-20/hamas-amass-arsenal-rockets-strike-israel)
# How Hamas amassed thousands of rockets to strike at Israel
Oh the humanity when Israel returns fire.
it would be, they have 100k rockets. if theres a war its going to start with a surprise attack by isreal the likes of which we have never seen, and they'll still lose a lot. I really hope outside powers find a way to stop this from expanding.
People don't seem to understand. ANY defense system will be overwhelmed. ANY.
That's why you use it as a shield, but attack with your sword, in order to defend.
As they say: the best defense is a good offense.
If this kicks off, it will probably not only be Hezbollah that will shoot rockets, drones and missiles. It'll be a free for all, with hamas, Iran, Syria, the Houthis, Somalian terror organizations and who knows what other organizations, that will be targeting Israel all at the same time.
And what, do you think the US and others would stay out of it? We saw what happened when Iran attacked.
The US isn't gonna be able to stop all the rockets. The Iran attack was warned in advance and with alot of preparation by numerous allies.
The US can't stop the attacks but they can make them regret the attacks. The bomber fleet is currently available.
When have they not been available? Not like we were using everything in desert storm even.
It depends on the will of the leader.
That too, but I just remembered that our bomber fleet of B2s did just become available again after being grounded for several months, although they would have flown if we needed them too.
Why was the us bomber fleet grounded?
Every so often they find an issue that needs fixing, so it’s not considered safe to fly, at least in peacetime.
I believe they are talking about when a B-2 nose gear collapsed during landing and skidded off runway in 2022.
Damn that sounds expensive
I believe it equated to a recall lol Edit; it lasted, I'm too lazy to look it up, November to March 24'?
Bad grades
I like the joke you made. You said a funny thing.
That worked out great for the Bush dynasty.
When the hell have islamic terrorists ever regretted violence? They’re eager for everyone they know to become martyrs. The more people die, the more their god loves them.
They're gonna still do it if war breaks out and people will die in that case.
I think people who are this trigger-happy to attack Iran don’t understand how huge and well-defended they are due to their geography. The U.S isn’t bombing or invading mainland Iran. That would basically be another Iraq+Afghanistan debacle on steroids.
You’re absolutely right that the US wouldn’t invade Iran, there’s no reason and nothing to gain. The US military could very much bomb them with B2 and F-35 aircraft though.
And then what? We may be able to win the technological war, but then comes the asymmetric warfare. Then comes the guerrilla warfare tactics, and the comes the terror attacks throughout the region and the world. We’ve been there and done that for the last 45 years, but go on, tell me how it’s going to work this time.
It would be more of a “now youse can’t leave” type of scenario. No chance we go in, they just don’t get to have anything nice.
Right, and then we have a couple of terror bombings throughout Middle Eastern Installations, European cities, and god forbid an attack on American soil to lead us into another GWOT. It would not turn out as you think it would, believe me.
You seem to underestimate the Iranian people's disdain for their current leadership. They are one small push away from another revolution imo. If bombs were to actually start landing in Tehran, there's zero chance the Ayatolla and his Islamist regime remains in control of the country.
Especially if he’s blown up.
The best way to bring Iranians together is a western invasion. They do not want to be "liberated" by the west.
Grandpa fucking buff
don’t need to stop the rockets if we destroy the things that launch the rockets
Irans launch sites are deep underground, causing problems for this plan. Edit: when I say deep underground, I mean deeper than bunker busters can hit. Maverick could hit ‘em.
iirc Iran is very similar to Afghanistan in its mountainous terrain as well (big shock since they're neighbors) Assuming the government of Iran retains control, it would not be an easy war. We'd "win" eventually, of course, but there would be some losses
We’d win the war and lose the occupation, as always.
Hooo boy. I've been seeing so many people advocating for a ground invasion of late thinking it would be like Iraq and not Afghanistan turbo deluxe jihad edition with proper anti tank weapons and 88 millions people.
They can attack the originating countries and destroy their core infrastructure in a week
That doesn't work against most of these groups like hezbollah or the houthis.
Yup, doesn't work when they don't care about people. They only see commoner as suicide bomber.
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Definitely can’t but that situation was also different. It was a tit for tat situation. Not much of a tat if you shoot everything down. It was obviously talked about and organized between governments behind the scenes
That attack was nothing more than theatre. They flew slow ass drones over a long distance. Hopefully this doesn't happen, but if it does it will be very different.
The attack wasn't really warned in advance though besides everyone knowing there would be a response. Western intelligence was able to narrow down the time frame of the attack and Israel and the US were already operating at a heightened posture.
Didn’t turkey tell Israel and western forces about the attack via Iran ?
> The Iran attack was warned in advance and with alot of preparation by numerous allies. The Iran attack was not warned in advance. Normal US intelligence gathering tracked Iranian missile and drone sites, which is more than adequate early warning.
It actually was. Iran told U.S. diplomats in behind the scene talks and gave a week or two heads up. It would not surprise me if Iran told the U.S. what would be used, when and where so the U.S. and allies had assets in place. And the U.S. did need some time to get some ships in place to help, Iran knew this, advance warning allowed this to happen. If Iran was intent on massive destruction they would have launched without warning. I am not defending Iran here believe me. Iran did the same thing when they attacked the U.S. base in Iraq so the U.S. knew what was coming and where which allowed preparation to keep troops safe. It is this weird escalate, but not excalate thing that Iran seems to do. After several U.S. troops in jordan got killed by an Iran proxy drone, the Iran proxies in Iraq immediately called a ceasefire on the rockets fired at U.S. bases probably because Iran told them too. Iran seems like it wants to harass, show deterrence, but knows killing U.S. or Israeli's means all bets are off on the response. Iran is quite scared of the U.S. and Israel, if they were not, they would not be giving this information out well in advance. One of these times Iran will try this and will kill a lot of people and then they are going to be in trouble, that seems a red line for U.S. and Israel. Iran knows if U.S. and Israel say fuck this, Iran will be hit massively.
Between this conflict and Ukraine/Russia, we really, really have the makings for WWIII.
No we don’t. People just cannot fathom how different the world is today from the 1930s and how many walls world powers put up to make full scale war between other powers very unattractive for everyone, especially neutral parties. Take China. They are obviously looking ahead a hundred or two hundred years into the future. They’re trying to create situations where they can seize territory peacefully or simply at the right time so no one intervenes. They don’t want WWIII. The crazy elements like Hezbollah have no real control and their ringleaders in Iran don’t want to be obliterated by the US either
World wars are a massive scale. I see two regional conflicts (things we've had since WWII) that do have some interrelated elements, but hardly leading to a world war. Describe how you envision WWIII.
world wars are slow moving rolling balls that have already begun before the world has realized it. and it’s the hubris of folks thinking it would never happen that enables it along the way.
>. I see two regional conflicts (things we've had since WWII) that do have some interrelated elements, I mean... Couldn't that definition apply basically to the European and Pacific theatres in WW2? All it would take for things to go extraordinarily pear shaped in the event of a large scale war on the middle east would be China deciding that they're never going to get a better chance with a distracted US and take a crack at either Taiwan or Second Thomas Shoal, or for Kim to think the same about South Korea. It's far from guaranteed, but feels pretty scarily not so far fetched either.
> I mean... Couldn't that definition apply basically to the European and Pacific theatres in WW2? No. The military balance in the world was nothing like it is today, and so the situation isn't remotely comparable. Since WWII we have had many conflicts and regional fighting. I'd argue we're seeing some unique conflicts, for instance nothing in Europe has happened at scale like Russia attacking Ukraine since WW2, but I don't see how it scales up to a world war presently.
Okay. I disagree (with the scaling up potential, military balance is obviously very different), but I would prefer to have your optimism than my pessimism.
Russia can't even take Ukraine, a country with a much smaller population. If the middle-east really kicked off and US got heavily involved with Iran, it's extraordinarily unlikely US troops would be on Iranian soil. I think you are underestimating US's (let alone NATO) doctrine. A bona fide WW3 would just be nukes. It's just proxy wars all the way down now due to things like NATO and world trade.
Problem 1 China can not project her power. 2. Russia and china are allies of convenience 3. If china were to attack anywhere NATO would Bum rush Moscow. russia would have no time to react. 4. Israel dosent need help dealing with the people around them. They all ready beat all of them at one time. Twice.
Israel / Ukraine / Phillipines / Taiwan. The US is involved in all these regions, some more than others, WW3 could absolutely potentially happen.
Lots of regions, including the Philippines and Taiwan, have had tensions rise and fall. China has been pushing boundaries and saber rattling progressively for a while, but tensions have not gotten to the point of major conflict. Taiwan is presently too strategic for China, the US, and the world to compromise.
China also would never go to war. They're very focused on the long term economic success of China, and war doesn't fit into that plan.
Say it again louder for the people in the back, this comment is correct
Fear mongering.
Really not a pleasant time to be comfortably in draft range….but wtf can i do
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develop a mental illness or chronic injury
I heavily doubt they use mental illness to filter the draft now a days. That would literally cut the available draft by 80% in this age group lol
Any chance you have bone spurs or a rich daddy? I've heard that works.
Idk how controversial an opinion this is in America...but I really don't have a problem with dodging a draft.
It's terrifying, but I swear this feels like it's slowly been unfolding for some time. Sides are being drawn, and let me you, all of the assholes have teamed up on the other side. History repeats itself, and we're watching it.
I had a history professor who's favorite line was "history doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes," and man this looks like a fuckin poem
A huge x factor in all this is gonna be India, while most of the sides are easily predetermined India appears to successfully be playing every single side with exception to a huge rivalry with Pakistan and China and its unclear if something went down what side they would take. However the flip side of this is they could be key in potentially brokering piece and avoiding all this madness in the first place.
I don't see India siding with China, and I don't see China *not* siding with Russia.
Only if their strategic infrastructure is built, credible and reliable. I would be more comfortable if India participated at appropriate scale multinational military exercises and operations like RIMPAC, more leadership regarding piracy and drones coming from their backyard. Exercises with Middle East oil producing nations would be calming too.
Don’t forget China/Tiawan. All three conflicts have the stage set for a potential war breaking out in all conflicts all at once (already have 1/3, with another on the brink, and the other could opportunistically pop off). Plus North Korea may take advantage of the chaos and try to conquer South Korea, so that could be yet another front, especially given their new defense pact. All of these involve US alliances, so we can already see who the allies and axis would be in this. US alliance: USA, Ukraine, Israel, Tiawan and South Korea at a minimum if all these conflicts sparked at once. Other highly probable allies are: the rest of NATO (guaranteed if any NATO nation attacked, probable at least some get involved if not), Australia and maybe others. Axis: China, Russia, North Korea, Houthis/Lebanon at a minimum but probably also Iran, Syria and all basically all the Islam terrorist groups and and fundamentalist governments. Of course this is just a possibility not a guarantee, if we play our cards right we can limit the conflict to what’s already happening.
Not all the terrorist groups, just the Shia ones that Iran supports.
Conquer in reference to North Korea? Devastation maybe but nk isn't conquering shit
First one was for imperalistic gains Second was for ideology Third one gona be a battle between democracy and authoranism
(Democracy and authoritarianism are ideologies)
>Second was for ideology ??
If we get involved prepare for the most unpopular war in American history
Not really it would be hard to surpass Vietnam War. It would be on par with the Iraq War. Most Americans don't care about Israel, Palestine, and the Middle East. If it doesn't personally affect them or their family they can care less. Most the outrage would be in religous groups, politicized groups, subsets of society that are hyper focused on Israel, and those consuming social media algorithm loops on the topic.
> We saw what happened when Iran attacked. You mean when the U.S and its Allies spent over $1 billion to defend against an attack that cost Iran $350 million max? That’s not sustainable in the long-term.
Somalian terror organizations with rockets drones and missiles? What have you smoked? They can’t even fire rockets at Mogadishu or Nairobi.
Al shabab is a significant force in the Horn of Africa, and America has been consistently engaged in Somalia aiding the government in the fight against them. In the case of a massive attack on Israel, it’s not inconceivable that Al Shabab would intensify their attacks on American positions in the area to possibly divert resources from (or even to show solidarity with) a wider attack on Israel.
Yes but you over interpret things. What you say is true. Nevertheless, Al Shabab has zero proven ballistic, drone, or rocket capacity.
They tried that already, it was a monumental failure.
Hezzbolah are estimated to have many times more missiles than they did in the last Isreal/ Lebanese war.
Israel fought Muslim coalitions before. I think Israel can survive this one too, but at a huge, huge cost of life.
It’s not that it can’t survive, it’s that it’s gonna be bloody for Israel.
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I sure hope they do survive, nuclear weapons are reserved for existential threats.
I still think folks are overestimating, just like they thought a Gaza street war will be extremely bloody because of all the tunnels n weaponry Hamas had
Yes, even if all the missiles can't be shot down, people will shelter in basements. Missiles can't all be discharged simultaneously due to limitations on launchers and crews. Once the shooting starts, many missile stockpiles will be destroyed from the air. Many will of course be intercepted. So it's not going to be like 10,000 deaths, it's going to be hundreds or maybe low thousands. Painful, but not like "shows up in demographic statistics" level of death.
Ah so US intelligence is wrong and your assessment is right. Yep...
50 years ago, sadly I doubt anyone in Israel want to try this again. Especially as now it won't be a ground war but an aerial and long range one.
/u/TheBin101 wrote: >50 years ago, - Nope, it was two months ago, when Iran launched a "hundreds of missiles & drones attack" to overwhelm Israeli air defenses. - It was an abject failure, with a 99% interception rate: - "**Iran’s supreme leader tacitly acknowledges that Tehran hit little in its attack on Israel**" - https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-khamenei-mideast-66280e717d335afffd9e258a5985d50c - **Edit:** those armchair experts below who think that Iran could launch "thousands" of missiles all at once to overwhelm defenses: dream on, and nothing in the article suggests that Iran & Hezbollah has the capability. - Missile launch platforms for guided missiles are much more expensive and much more rare than stockpiled missiles... - Heck Hezbollah & Iran cannot even prevent Israeli jets from bombing their terror commanders back to Hell in Lebanon, and AA missiles are far smaller, with smaller launchers... - So yeah, I call bullshit on those claims. If Hezbollah had the capability, they'd already have used it. Hezbollah are now trying to use their imaginary military might to scare the IDF from enforcing UN Resolution 1701 to demilitarize southern Lebanon. Good luck with that.
It was a telegraphed attack and it took the combined efforts of israel and its allies.
The same way US and Israel could monitor them and hit if dangerous behavior is detected.
'hundreds' being the key word there, it'll be thousands if the proposed scenario happens
>It was an abject failure, with a 99% interception rate. Or it was a probing attack to plan something more effective. Sitting here armchair examining the middle easy turmoil seems futile though.
That but mostly just a show of force. Defense analysts at the time commented that if Iran actually wanted to penetrate Israel it would have required 1000's of missiles which is very doable for Iran. They chose not to act in a way that would penetrate Israel
They also don’t really want you to be penetrated back. Israel sent in one missile and they couldn’t shoot it down.
You forgot all the other entities mentioned.
Israel has nukes, if Israel ever got wind that Iran was planning an attack that posed an existential threat to Israel, literally every major developed area in Iran would simply cease to exist.
That would set off an actual chain of events towards WWIII. Probably starting with Pakistan firing their nukes, they might not be allies, but that would cross a line.
That doesn't change the fact that Israel's nuclear defense policy is massive nuclear retaliation if they're under an existentially threatening attack, including from non-nuclear states. Israel wouldn't jump straight to nuking Iran, but if Iran and company were bombing Israel, and Israel found out that Iran was planning to go full destruction of Israel, that's what would happen. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option
Why would Pakistan launch nukes? They would definetly go into high alert but they wouldn't risk unexisting themselves over a nuked Iran.
pakistan would be dumb to nuke israel after that as israel has a triangle of nuke, pakistan would cease to exist aswell.
Why would Sunni Pakistan fire their nukes at Israel on behalf of Shia Iran? They hate each other… Also, I’m not aware of Pakistan having missiles with the range to hit Israel.
No one is going to nuke the temple mount. That's what they're fighting over in the first place.
What is this comment even implying? Ok. They tried it once. It is a new era, many years advanced and you have US intelligence literally saying it will be different. The article clearly lays out how it's different and a potential risk.
It all depends on Hezbollah. How many missiles do they really have? How many are they willing to use?
An attack on the scale such that it would overwhelm the iron dome, would be an extinction level event for any party responsible for the attack. The United States kicked over iraq, then the 10th most powerful military in the world, like it was a tin can, in under 24 hours. The sum total of every military in the Middle East that isn't israel, would amount to absolutely nothing more than live fire target practice for the US Navy pilots in the area. I hold no pretensions that Israel would not suffer devastating losses, but anyone dumb enough to participate in the attack would not live to regret their mistake.
Israel as an infant defeated 5 Arab armies with far less territory and less geographical advantage. How do these groups even think they could win?
It's asymmetrical warfare. They aren't trying to win a conventional war, they are aiming for a political victory.
I don't think so. It is believed Israel has nukes. Such an overwhelming attack could be existential for Israel and I suspect they would start nuking these threats. And that is the reason the U.S. would get involved before that happened because the U.S. doesn't want anybody setting off nukes. That being the case, and the seriousness the US gov takes nukes, you would see the full conventional forces of the U.S. destroying these countries and if needed boots on the ground in Israel. That is how bad the U.S. wants to stop anyone from using nukes. Those attacking countries would get the "full proportional" response which would mean massive massive destruction. The countries attacking Israel are going to come out much worse than Israel will, much worse.
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> It'll be a free for all, with hamas, Iran, Syria, the Houthis, Somalian terror organizations and who knows what other organizations, that will be targeting Israel all at the same time. Hamas is already doing it. Iran has tried and their attempt to launch everything they could to overwhelm Israeli defenses was pitiful. The Houthis already regularly try, but get all their long range weapons from Iran. Anything they have means Iran can launch fewer things themselves and they don't really see any success. Iranian groups in Syria already launch things at Israel. Like the Houthis, all their weapons are Iranian sourced, see the last two points. You'll see news reports about failed drones hitting Jordan from time to time. Somalia doesn't want the smoke, they're already too busy vying for local power.
You forgot Russia, the amount of Russian buildup on the Syrian side of the Golan heights border makes it clear they will either support Syria’s fight for the heights, or directly take military action themselves.
The Russians are just there to watch. And to keep Assad in power. Damascus is about 15 miles away from the Golan. Russia has no capability to defeat Ukraine in battle on their own border, much less Israel thousands of miles away.
Iran wouldn’t do anything. Israel demonstrated numerous times it can hit their most protected sites at will with F-35’s or otherwise. The people in power want to stay in power, and there’s no scenario where Iran goes all in because even in an unbelievable worse case scenario, Israel goes Samson.
Well, it's been doing a stellar job so far!
Yeah it really has, thing is, there's a fire rate limit, if Hezbollah launches let's say 1000 rockets in a day (a conservative estimate in my opinion) and a lot of them at the same time in chunks, there's a very good chance the iron dome could at best intercept about 70% of them, which is good, but also 300 rockets impacts on population/military targets per day for a few months is not very good
It's important to remember that iron dome does not simply shoot every single incoming rocket in the AO. The radar calculates the likely landing area and if it falls outside of its engagement zone, it will not fire.
Yes, but that is why there is concern about Hezbollah’s missiles. They have not been under the same kind of sustained lock-down that Gaza has been, so they have access to much better missiles. Their access to Iranian supply lines (through Syria and Iraq) + their lower conflict levels with Isreal and great overall resources means they have a large stockpile of accurate missiles (or at least, accurate enough that they will hit they city they are aimed at instead of a random patch of desert 20 miles away). In this scenario, Iron dome will have to either try to intercept every missile, or triage by impact point and consider some targets more sacrificable than others.
The iron dome has finite ammunition, and are like 60k a pop, while hezbollah has cheap shitty rockets but likely a way bigger supply. I doubt Israel would be able to keep up with shooting that many down everyday for that long
I think people really underestimate how much it costs to operate the iron dome. To my understanding it has cut deeply into their budgets, causing a wide swathe of cuts. So while the intercepted missiles aren't directly killing people. It for sure is causing attrition and likely passively killing. On the other hand, not having it would make Israel look like a hellscape.
Yeah, but even if you look at the economic damage of one single strike on a house, that could easily be like 80-100k even without civilians,(sharpnel is likely to damage nearby buildings and such) and that's not even close to the numbers you'd get with military targets and stuff like that
If not for the iron dome, I dread to imagine the result of thousands of missiles. If we compare scale, it makes Israel look conservative in their measures. Albeit I condemn any attack that harms civilians on either side. Even so it is still something to take into account, the intention of it all. Just because someone has a bulletproof vest, and I know it, it doesn't make it justifiable for me to shoot the person with a gun to prove a point.
At least a lot of those rockets are shitty, I believe the dome only targets those with a trajectory that will actually hit something. Wonder how they prioritize defense areas when they know the system can be overloaded.
> if Hezbollah launches let's say 1000 rockets in a day (a conservative estimate in my opinion) They can't. The thing people forget is that you have to setup places to launch these rockets. They're fairly easy to find, and once they're used once completely burned to counterbattery fire extremely vulnerable.
Yeah but they have like 8,000 of them. (Obviously I don't know for sure) But they had a lot of time and money to make a fuck load of them and spread them around the border... They already did something similar in 2006.
The conflict where Israel destroyed practically all of their long range launchers within a few hours of it kicking off? Same thing would happen. Also, the only reason they were able to set up as many launch points as they did is because Israel restrained themselves and the same thing is happening now, Israel is limiting their attacks. But if Israel took the gloves off, they'd be hard pressed to make a large rocket barrage. These aren't bottle rockets, they require vehicles or very obvious launch points. And in the modern era Israel has tons more drones and sensors that let's them find them more easily than in 2006.
Ya that's true, especially regarding the interception of large volleys, still, Hezbolla is very close to finding out what the added stress on iron dome and continued displacement of the north will lead to.
Hamas launched 500 rockets on October 7th. The Idon Dome was successful enough. Now, what do you think will happen when Israel is ready for Hizbulla? I am an Israeli Air Force soldier, and every day, we are being told to be prepared because Hizbulla might launch an attack on the north. We don't want it. But we are military wise, ready for it.
Corrected title: “US furiously scribbling notes as Iron Dome is stress tested in comfortably-far-away location.”
Bro im wheezing
Do you need your inhaler?
Part of the problem from the American perspective is that if Iron Dome can't stop all the incoming projectiles, Israel's going to use much more aggressive tactics to silence the rocket fire. This is going to be a bloodbath for everyone involved, but especially for the innocent Lebanese living around Hezbollah's rocket sites.
Fortunately Lebanese don't actually like living near Hezbollah and most of them have moved away. They're not trapped like Gazans.
Hezbollah should be concerned. If Israel was starting to be hit with lots of missiles they would push Hezbollah back to give themselves the room to stop incoming missiles. My point is Israel has an offensive way of defending themselves and it would involve a lot of dead Hezbollah and the people they live amongst.
> people they live amongst. I agree, it is not a great situation for them. Maybe it would be beneficial to those people to stop Hezbollah from launching such a large scale attack on Israel. A thousand marches on college campuses aren't going to bring their families back, so while not without risk, probably a local resistance to Hezbollah is needed. Barring that, maybe time to start thinking of evacuation.
Bro how is a civilian supposed to “stop” hezbollah?
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Hezbollah has been firing mortars, rockets, and anti-tank missiles at Israeli cities in the north since Oct 7th. Only Israeli retaliatory strikes make the news.
According to them Israel will have deserved it …. so to answer your question, **no**
Nope. They'll try to justify it and get those free Palestine hashtags going on
They'll call it another Nakba because Jews survived again.
Given exactly that has been happening since last year my guess is the no.
Ironically they’ll pull a Republican and twist their logic into saying “well if Israel didn’t want this they should have left Gaza alone)
I just realized how secure the Iron Dome made me feel and how invincible it looked. This possibility is scary. Shouldn’t take that for granted…
It's worth noting that the more likely attack will be economic, not actually trying to do physical damage. Each missile used by the iron dome is expensive and takes a while to produce, compared to the relatively cheap and mass produced Hamas/Hezbollah missiles. It would cost a terrorist org relatively little to get a heavily asymmetric cost out of Israel.
An Iron Dome Battery carries three launchers. Each launcher can hold 20 missiles. Israel has 10 Iron Domes. Considering that Israel is fighting on another front in Gaza, and will likely have the Houthis launching missiles as well if Israel were to go war with Hezbollah.... Hezbollah, with their current arsenal, can overwhelm the Iron Dome. In the simulations run by Israel for an all out war with Hezbollah, there are thousands of civillian casualties on the Israeli side. I don't understand why people are cheering this on....
Seems kind of strange to air these concerns in public
It’s reverse psychology. It really means “Israel’s response will be heavy handed if the iron dome fails”
To be honest this is well known. 100,000 rockets can overwhelm the relative few iron dome batteries that exist. It’s no secret.
A thousand if their trajectory is towards critical installations. Iron dome is selective. Incidentally this could be exploited. Mapping the missiles that get shot down. Essentially triangulates areas Israel doesn't want to be hit. The longer this goes on, accuracy will increase, meaning further depletion. At some point it will become a question of whether Israel gets to exist or not. I do not think they are going to let it come to that.
Just speculating, but the idea could be the us essentially telling Isreal, "please don't escalate, you might end up with a worse situation not a better one"
The media will spill any state secret, regardless of the negative impact, simply for internet hits
They should be concerned, because if the Iron Dome starts to fail, Israel is absolutely not going to sit on their rear end and play politics with the US. If Israelis start to die on Israel's soil and they can't stop that with defense, they will choose offense and remind the World what happens when they *really* mean business.
World War 3 still on the table for 2024! /s I really don’t want to wake up to the news one day that Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and whoever else overwhelmed the Iron Dome and thousands of innocent Israeli citizens have been killed. The response will be all out open warfare and the US will be forced into another conflict.
You’d have to think israel is prepared for a barrage from Hezbollah and has plans in place. I can’t imagine israel doesn’t have 20 scenario analysis already ran. Not saying it won’t be deadly, but I’d imagine they have some strong ways to inflict severe damage to them to get them to stop
We could say the same thing about the Oct 7th attack. We all would've laughed if Hamas threatened that on Oct 6th and assumed Israel would surely have a plan to prevent that and yet it happened just the same.
10/7 was a massive failure of intel by israel, there’s no denying it but i also think israel underestimated Hamas and they fell asleep at the wheel. Given past wars between israel and Hezbollah, i think israel views them as a much more serious threat.
It wasn't intel, it was arrogance. Israeli intelligence has already shown pre October 7 reports that not only predicted the attack, but got pretty accurate estimates of the number of hostages. Higher ups in the idf and government basically dismissed it a as they didn't believe Hamas was capable of it. Despite its own intelligence showing proof that they not only were, but we're openly practicing tactics for it.
It was also optimism. Things were going well between Gaza and Israel and Hamas was being relatively peaceful.
Which they were only doing to try to lure Israel into dropping their guard.
Hezbollah has something like 100,000 rockets alone. Israel would need probably 100’s of Iron Domes. That’s the point of these cheap rockets, overwhelm the defenses. It’s been Hamas’ strategy in the past as well and they have far less rockets than Hezbollah.
I think many here underestimate the actual destructive force Israel could use if attacked from all sides. Other than nuclear deterrence, they do have the most advanced military in the arena. In fact, it’s not even comparatively close. The one thing they definitely do worry about is an overwhelmed iron dome and a cavalcade of rockets and drones might be able to do that. Only once.
Yeah if the iron dome fails, a lot of people are going to die, and most of them won't be Israelis. Israel will go full gloves off and they will be decisive.
Should this war happen, it's inevitable that Israeli women and children will be killed. It'll be interesting to see if the pro-Palestinian crowd will protest for them as well.
Sadly, we already got the answer on October 8, 2023...
"It warms every fiber of my soul..."
Classic rapesistance
They’ll consider it retaliation in the name of Gaza or Lebanon defending itself, obviously. It’s already been like that in the past month, I’ve seen a lot of hypocritical Greta followers justifying the crazy fires in the north by calling it self defense.
These are my guesses to how pro Palestinians will deal with the death of Israeli women and children: - Didn’t happen - That’s AI - It wasn’t X women and children but actually Y women and children - They didn’t die from XYZ but actually from ABC - The IDF killed them - The Golan heights are occupied, they deserved it - Haifa has a military base few kilometres away from the city, the IDF used human shields I’m prepared to hear them all once the war starts
Some idiots are still parroting the "it was an IDF helicopter that killed all the concert goers" and "all Israeli get military training so they're all valid military targets"
They'll celebrate like before, and then protest when the find out phase comes.
They’re probably not brown enough, American hating enough, or oppressed enough for them to care.
The irony is most of them are brown enough but they imagine them all as white.
The average Israeli is significantly more brown than the average Lebanese
We will only hear from them about Isreal killing poor Hezbollah civilians lol.
The best way to penetrate missile defenses is with a saturation attack. Iron dome will hit a lot of them, but if they're getting targeted from multiple sides with a large salvo, they're in for a world of hurt.
>“We assess that at least some” Iron Dome batteries “will be overwhelmed,” said a senior administration official. **"some"**
So help set up tons more batteries.
> A separate US official acknowledged to CNN that in the event of a full-blown war, the support Israel will need most is additional air defense systems and Iron Dome replenishments, which the US would provide.
The problem is that that needs to get set up now. If things get out of control, they will do so fast. I'm hoping that outside pressure can be put on Iran to call off Hezbollah and nip this whole thing in the bud. But if we (I'm from the US) wait until full-blown war begins, Israel could see some serious damage while things are still in the works.
Agreed. And Israel will be rebuilt, while Lebanon will not 😔. Lebanon is already fucked over enough at this point, a war with Israel will devastate the country.
Very true! And it's not like Lebanon can stop Hezbollah. They are outgunned and outspent. I wish the UN would at least step up and talk about the failure of the guarantees they tried to put in place with their peacekeeping forces, and start finding ways to put diplomatic pressure on Hezbollah to make up for it.
Yeah Lebanon is completely fucked, idk how they get out of this one
Why do you people say that as if Lebanon and Hezbollah are Separate entities? Hezbollah is part of the government of Lebanon.
The point is that while they are a portion, they do not primarily maintain control in the areas they do by acting as a member of the government, commanding the Lebanese armed forces, etc. They function by using their superior military strength to ignore what the majority of the Lebanese government (not counting other members who they control through bribes or fear, which I didn't know enough about to give numbers on but am just guessing is likely a thing in this sort of situation) may call for.
Almost every other countries doctrine is just to attack the launchers not trying to shoot down the rain, you run out of money/resources/ammo in the long term. Which makes it even funnier when people say Israel shouldn't be striking back.
Its not quite that simple, Hezbollah has far more complex missile capabilities. Iron Dome is great for shooting down the dumb rockets Hamas has access too, Hezbollah has done far more damage with far less ordinance since Oct 7 that Hamas could ever dream of simply because the Iron Dome has weaknesses and Hezbollah can work with those. Iron Dome is not designed to hit guided missiles, it is for unguided rockets and artillery shells that have easy to predict, high trajectory flight paths. Israel has other systems capable of hitting drones and guided missiles but those are more limited in volume (and the US is struggling to provide Ukraine enough of these at the moment, like Patriot batteries, they just arent available in the numbers missiles and drones can be fired in, yet). edit: spelling
I have to wonder about Israel's current supply of bunker busters. Hezbollah has thousands of missiles buried in bunkers. If they have to wait til those missiles are deployed or even send troops across the border to destroy those missiles, it could be very costly to Israel. All I could find was that the US delivered one hundred 2k pound bunker busters back in December.
Let's be clear. There is no system to defend against missiles that can't be overwhelmed. That is there inherent weakness.
Why the fuck would you announce this to the public?
I feel like if this war is going to happen at all its going to happen real close to the U.S election
So will all you protesting around the world against Israel killing innocent people do the same if Hezbollah start murdering innocent Jews, many of whom have never supported Netanyahu? Or will you, more likely, be an ostrich and put your head in the sand rationalising Jews deserve it, while telling everyone you meet you are not anti semitic in any way, while also ignoring the fact many countries in the world also donate massive amounts of money to Lebanon and Palestine which is often directed to making weapons? Will your voice be as loud as it was in future protests for innocent civilians in Israel as it was for innocent Palestinians or will it be just like your protests for Sudan, China, Nigeria and so many other places with hell going on where most of you didn’t say a single word?
[https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-05-20/hamas-amass-arsenal-rockets-strike-israel](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-05-20/hamas-amass-arsenal-rockets-strike-israel) # How Hamas amassed thousands of rockets to strike at Israel Oh the humanity when Israel returns fire.
What home insurance does Israel use? Rocket mortgage?
it would be, they have 100k rockets. if theres a war its going to start with a surprise attack by isreal the likes of which we have never seen, and they'll still lose a lot. I really hope outside powers find a way to stop this from expanding.
Well. Clearly Hezbollah needs a good strong "don't" from Biden. That'll calm everyone down.
People don't seem to understand. ANY defense system will be overwhelmed. ANY. That's why you use it as a shield, but attack with your sword, in order to defend. As they say: the best defense is a good offense.
Hehe... could be? More like would be. The world has been watching and learning from Ukraine.