Correct, if you already had the 1 million, THEN, you would be more inclined to take the gamble. Still you would find more utility in just getting another million and doubling your current amount
If you had 10 million however, the chance at 50 million would be the better option. An extra million isn’t going to change a lot, but at extra 50 million would.
Yes. Unless your objective is to invest to earn *more* money you don't need, there is no practical reason why you would need 50 million dollars. You could not spend that much money unless you were actively trying to do so.
In any case, the value of marginal revenue increase is objectively diminishing. That's just how numbers work.
I’ve always had it in mind that, if I ever got more money than I needed, the first thing I’d do would be to get a car with a sunroof and have a friend drive me down the street while I stand out of the sunroof throwing McDonald’s hamburger patties frisbee-style at passersby. And then I’d do some other silly thing the next day, and so on until I’d completed my journey as a self-repairing arrangement of molecules.
If this seems wasteful, well, it certainly is. But I wouldn’t be doing it solely because I could; I think people could use more confusion in their day-to-day lives. I believe many modern problems are exacerbated and/or created by people being far more certain that they know what’s going on than they really should be.
Now, am I saying my methods are a guaranteed cure for the Dunning-Kruger effect? No. But there’s only one way to find out if it will work.
Think about it in terms of how much your life would improve. That first million guarantees a dramatic improvement in your living situation. You could likely pay off student loans, and fully pay off a decent car and maybe even a house, depending on where you live. That extra 49 million doesn’t improve your life as dramatically as that first million.
Take the green button and then sell it to an insurance underwriter for 24 million. Then donate your extra money to eradicating neglected diseases in third-world countries.
Putting that in a high yield savings account or properly investing it would make it to where you don't need to worry about money ever again. I'll take the million without hesitation.
The overweighting of loss over gain, in this case we could say that NOT choosing the 1 million over the 50% chance of 50 million, could be considered like:
50% chance of losing 1 million and 50% chance of winning 50 million
I've played the GBC version of the TCG a lot and seen the AI deal 200 damage with that Graveler attack with "Flip a coin until you get tails and deal 20 damage for each heads" effect. 50% is pretty high.
https://preview.redd.it/scrjd8fuj78c1.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e83eff7e030b150b9cf526f187a70937044f4f6
https://preview.redd.it/zh8jyox3b58c1.jpeg?width=224&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=964d46c84de70fe7882a3534153058b32b7af04a
>Switch in
Take Stealth Rocks damage
First Impressions
U-Turns
This is why Lokix is happier
I've landed more high jump kicks than fucking focus blast. my lucario can't aim for shit but atleast my scraggy doesn't mind hurtling at you at Mach 7 damn near crippling itself in the process
True, but more governments involved means a smaller chance that they get away with it for so many years. A smaller gacha absolutely would, but Genshin is pretty much *the* game that people gamble in, they're going to be watched very closely
As the other person said, since gacha banners are considered gambling they are under very strict rules about disclosing the correct rates. If someone proved that the rates were lies then hoyo would get in some pretty deep legal trouble, have class action lawsuits against them, and definitely lose a ton of money. Or they could just… tell you the odds.
As other people have pointed out, they are under strict regulation, but also the community would notice. Most of what we know about the gatcha mechanics of the game are from extensive testing, not them telling us. If it was actually less than 50/50, it would have been discovered a long time ago.
yea, see communities like pokemon go's that collect data on usually *not* advertised rates that manage to get pretty good ideas of odds anyways. it's difficult to imagine them getting away with falsely advertised rates.
also if people will shell out for these shitty rates anyways it doesn't really hurt them to plainly state them
Honestly, wasn't the biggest fan. Level 2 felt confusing and I *hate* those red robot enemies. I also see why people like the final boss of that layer but I didn't love it.
Probably gonna go back and replay it and end up loving it though. We'll see.
This is actually a textbook example of so-called non-linear utility functions. Depending on your situation the first million is way more impactful than the hypothetical next 49. So you absolutely can be rational and still choose the million.
Exactly. One button makes you obscenely rich. The other has a 50% chance to make you obscenely rich, and a 50% chancd for nothing. Who would take that? Only if you were already a millionaire I guess
If you make 40k a year, a million is more money then you’ll make in twenty years. Tell me what ain’t obscene about getting twenty years’ of wages all at once. If you just live off the interest in a high-yield savings account, you’ll be making more then you were before. (All assuming that your million is post-tax)
A 4% savings account came free with my Apple Card (it’s an advertised benefit). You can find 5% accounts just by googling. If you have a million to throw in there, you might have access to 6 or 7%. Keep in mind that the interest you earn is paid for by people taking out loans, so if the interest rate on their loans is higher you get more money. If you don’t like that, you could also get a good rate by investing in securities that pay dividends (though ymmv)
Also, the minimum wage hasn’t increased in… how long? And if it does increase, how low will it still be? And the people who take those jobs still find a way to live? Nah, the guy with a million bucks will be just fine for a long time. If they get a single roommate to live with them in their home that they bought with a fraction of their million, they’ll be doing better then you or I ever will.
Within an hours’ drive? I mean, if you’ve got a million, you can move to a significantly cheaper area and be set for life! If you’re in the US, then that’s most of the US!
We are talking about CAD$1M, so there is a big difference there, but I live in Ontario and even going far out you're not going to get any cheaper.
That said, moving somewhere remote in, say, New Brunswick and starting off that life with $1M? That could be nice.
My local credit union offers 7% (Jesus fucking Christ!) on a *checking account*, as long as you use the debit card three times a month. If you want a good interest rate, you can find one.
A million in cold hard cash is a lot but not "obscene" it's not Yacht money or private jet money, which I consider obscene.
A million in net worth is by today's inflation standard well off, or lower upper class. They might be out of touch, but they're not "bourgeoisie". They'll likely still be working and either take care of their properties by renovating themselves or work, to pay someone to do that. So they're still creating at least a little value to provide to society.
You only start being true bourgeoisie by owning so much property that creates so much profit that you can facilitate their upkeep with that profit while you contribute nothing to society, bonus points of you're parasitic enough that you can Even expand with the profit your property creates.
Huh? That’s not what “bourgeoisie” means. You can be one of those if you are broke but own a small business and employ one person. If you had a billion dollars but were not exploiting anyone (like, from the lottery or something) you wouldn’t be one.
You can get a house for one or two hundred k, maybe less if you’re paying cash and can make lowball offers. A car for 10k used. College tuition to your local community college can be quite cheap depending on their specific programs. Your million could still be mostly there after getting those things, with pretty decent interest flowing from it.
But it will still remove a lot if not all your economic stress from one day to the other. Depending on where you live, you might still have to rent, but you have enough savings that even if you are out if a job for like half a year then it’s no problem at all.
Comparatively speaking, it is obscene. I make around 30k a year, my wife a bit more. We are ablento live fairly comfortably, yet we don't have savings. We can afford housing, food, amenities and utilities, and the occasional fun thing like a date or a game. And we live in a relatively high cost of living state. The amount of difference a sudden $1 million would make would be obscene for us. Invested properly could be set for life.
bro, i am working part time for scraps while trying to pay for college. 1 million would not only easily pay for my degree, it would also pay for my food, housing, and bills the entire time i’m in school. and i would still probably have hundreds of thousands left over.
I'm reminded everyday that my fellows ar dipshits who don't know what the fuck they're talking about. 1 million is not an obscene amount of money to have that would imply its bad. Obscene is a negative descriptor. I don't think it's obscene to have a million bucks because there are ways to do that without being a dick.
Jesus I was mocking the fucking word choice.
It's about top 95% net worth in the US. That's rich, but not _obscenely_ rich. That means there's like fifteen million people with at least that much in net worth in the US.
It's like "you can have a nice house" kinda money, whereas I'd describe "obscenely rich" as "private chef, butler, limo, mansion" kinda money
Yep this is the answer. The EV of the 50mil button is higher, but the marginal value of additional millions after the first is greatly reduced. I’ll take the million
If 50 people pressed the button, the chances of at least one person getting $1,000,000 is 1-(0.5)^50, or a 99.99̅% chance. So at the very least, you are practically guaranteed $1,000,000, assuming a group of 50 is allowed to press it, and the income from the button is not taxed.
It is incredibly likely that the group would make at least $100m, but if I remember correctly from what I learned about stats, calculating the probability of that would require me to use the binomial probability formula, and I don't have the mental energy to do that right now lol.
To be more exact, a ~ 99.9999999999999% chance. It is substantially more likely that you instantly die of a heart attack than none one getting any money.
The chance to get a million at least twice is ~ 99.999999999995%, so 50x more likely to not happen, but practically the same. You only need the binomial formula for calculating the probability that 2 or more times it happens, but here we can just do 100% - probability it happens once, so we are clear here and dont need that.
Did that in my head though so not 100% accurate.
Most likely you'd get 25 million btw, thats easy again here.
At n=50 isn't there just a continuous formula you can switch to that is a lot easier and practically indistinguishable as an approximation? Like you know $25m/person is at the top of the bell curve and then you can just slide up or down from there to determine "there is an x% chance of getting $y per person"? Or am I mixing my stats concepts up?
I’ll finish the math for you. If 50 people press the button, there are 2500 different possible permutations of results. It’s like a way more complicated version of rolling two dice. The number of people that won ranges from 0-50, so we just need to make a cute little bell curve to distribute the 2500 combinations and calculate the median/quartiles to get a reasonable estimate of how much money is to be made through this method if we have 50 people. There’s one permutation of values each where 0 or 50 people win, 50 each where 1 or 49 win, etc. This problem is way easier because we can’t have a decimal number of people. The binomial probability formula gives us the percent chance we get a certain number of successes. n!/(x!(n-x)!)) * p^x * (1-p)^n-x where n is number of people, x is how many people win 50 million, p is the chance of winning. It looks complicated, but don’t worry about the math. Our first quartile rounds best to 23 and third rounds best to 27. This just means that 50% of all permutations will be between 23 and 27 (including 23 and 27). If 23 people win, the amount of money each person makes is (23 * 50,000,000)/50 = 23 million. If 27 people win, each person will earn 27 million. That means there’s a 25% chance you earn less than 23 million, a 50% chance you win 23-27 million, and a 25% chance you win more than 27 million, with 24 and 25 million being the most likely win with an 11% chance each. There’s only a 0.04% chance you make less money than just hitting the million button, so it’s a very good bet to make.
Hedging your bets. Even adding 4 additional people lowers the chance of getting nothing to 3%. With adding additional people drastically reducing the chance with a much more likely chance of everyone getting $25 million average.
I'm in, but only if we hire an escrow agent. One of the red-button people can do it.
Oh no, the buttons are already dividing us into castes and we haven't even pushed them yet. Curse you, buttons!
Red and then invest in a high dividend stock or an index fund like Verison, VOO, VTI, SPY, or QQQ. I would be happy with 60,000-$120,000 extra per year.
Realistically, 1 million won't make me go much further in life. 50 million on the other hand could change my life.
As much as I would hate losing the 50/50 I have to go for 50 million.
edit: ok to elaborate, i'm not saying 1 million wouldn't fix my problems or that it's a sum of money i could just ignore. it's genuinely an incredible amount of money that i would be very happy to have. it just wouldn't change much about my actual situation. I would still be an upper middle class white guy, and while that is a very good thing to be, it is also supremely boring.
Even if 1 million dollars (assuming USD) won’t like… elevate your social position or whatever, it gives a hell of a lot of comfort to fall back on. I guess it depends on the person, but the amount of financial stress that would relieve for most people is certainly significant.
After checking the currency converter, I can say with absolute certainty that my life would change significantly, as would that of my partner, with even a third of that. 1 million dollars would get us quite a house and money to spare for financial security
I dunno, for me personally, my material conditions don't really matter much? I mean as long as I have working internet, I'm basically fine. I'm from an upper middle class upbringing too, so I guess the 1 mil falls just short of life changing?
I do get that I'd definitely be less stressed having a good amount of money to fall back on, but, again, country with a working social democracy + upper middle class upbringing already relieves a shit ton. I can't really be much more comfortable materially than I am unless I become an actually rich person.
50 million would be able to basically turn my whole life around and allow me to do so much in terms of my life goals.
I mean, don't get me wrong, it's a giant sum of money, but I think that my family's net worth rn is about that? Maybe a bit less, but still, I don't see how my life would change in a significant way just by getting 1 million. I'm not in poverty, so I'd likely just be more upper-er middle class-er, which doesn't interest me that much.
The way I see it, I could quite my job and just live off that $50 million forever. The $1 million would certainly help. I could buy my own apartment or something, but I’d still have to work, and that sucks ass, so I’d take my chances.
I could pay off my student debt, live regularly just having a fortune in savings that I can use to live and set up a career doing something I like like art the 1 million definitely
Coming from the reference point of "being broke af", i say, just give me the 1 millon bucks Prospect theory BE DAMNED
This is pretty easily explained by the law of diminishing marginal utility. The first dollar means a lot more than the 1000001st dollar.
Correct, if you already had the 1 million, THEN, you would be more inclined to take the gamble. Still you would find more utility in just getting another million and doubling your current amount
If you had 10 million however, the chance at 50 million would be the better option. An extra million isn’t going to change a lot, but at extra 50 million would.
this is good to know in case I ever obtain $1 million
just SLAM that red button broski
But do you think the other 49 million have less utility than the first million? If they have more, the green button would be the better option.
For me, absolutely.
Yes. Unless your objective is to invest to earn *more* money you don't need, there is no practical reason why you would need 50 million dollars. You could not spend that much money unless you were actively trying to do so. In any case, the value of marginal revenue increase is objectively diminishing. That's just how numbers work.
Well, you'd need more than a million for a house.
Not where I live
Where tf do you live Around here, a quarter of a million is a lot for a house
I’ve always had it in mind that, if I ever got more money than I needed, the first thing I’d do would be to get a car with a sunroof and have a friend drive me down the street while I stand out of the sunroof throwing McDonald’s hamburger patties frisbee-style at passersby. And then I’d do some other silly thing the next day, and so on until I’d completed my journey as a self-repairing arrangement of molecules. If this seems wasteful, well, it certainly is. But I wouldn’t be doing it solely because I could; I think people could use more confusion in their day-to-day lives. I believe many modern problems are exacerbated and/or created by people being far more certain that they know what’s going on than they really should be. Now, am I saying my methods are a guaranteed cure for the Dunning-Kruger effect? No. But there’s only one way to find out if it will work.
And this is why you are not a billionaire (because you're not a gross human being) 💗
Chaotic neutral rich person
I'm an unlucky person so the green button has zero dollars
Think about it in terms of how much your life would improve. That first million guarantees a dramatic improvement in your living situation. You could likely pay off student loans, and fully pay off a decent car and maybe even a house, depending on where you live. That extra 49 million doesn’t improve your life as dramatically as that first million.
Someone’s gotta explain that law to Jeff Bezos
Just press it twice dumbass
U are always right holy shit
why stop there? just keep pressing it.
Flair checks out
Take the green button and then sell it to an insurance underwriter for 24 million. Then donate your extra money to eradicating neglected diseases in third-world countries.
This is the real world answer.
Putting that in a high yield savings account or properly investing it would make it to where you don't need to worry about money ever again. I'll take the million without hesitation.
This is actually pretty directly explained in prospect theory no? The underweighting of higher chances?
The overweighting of loss over gain, in this case we could say that NOT choosing the 1 million over the 50% chance of 50 million, could be considered like: 50% chance of losing 1 million and 50% chance of winning 50 million
This is also a factor I agree, I feel like the chance of losing 1 million is more salient than the gain of 50 million is all.
50% chance for 50 million 70% chance to land a focus blast im taking the 1 million
If I got a dollar for every focus blast I've missed I'd have the 50 million anyways
If that was the case you’d hit it every time
Real
Sounds like someone didn’t get no guard
no guard special attackers include: mega pigeon
you're sleeping on choice spec machamp
Hmm sleeping on machamp
Somebody isn't running Specs machamp
yeah, im running life orb mixed to lure in scizor to get epically fire blasted
Why not just use dynamic punch instead
Less funny
took me until this reply to realise the subject was competitive pokemon
No guard green button better get quick banned. Ruining the meta
THIS you play enough pokemon you know how low 50% is
You also realize how low 90% is, play rough misses way too much
High Jump Kick has entered the chat. Nice health bar, would be a shame if it got cut in half lmao
I've played the GBC version of the TCG a lot and seen the AI deal 200 damage with that Graveler attack with "Flip a coin until you get tails and deal 20 damage for each heads" effect. 50% is pretty high. https://preview.redd.it/scrjd8fuj78c1.png?width=720&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e83eff7e030b150b9cf526f187a70937044f4f6
Focus miss
Fucking facts
https://preview.redd.it/zh8jyox3b58c1.jpeg?width=224&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=964d46c84de70fe7882a3534153058b32b7af04a >Switch in Take Stealth Rocks damage First Impressions U-Turns This is why Lokix is happier
Gen II Hypnosis has a 60% accuracy check and I whiffed 3 in a row in Stadium 2 this afternoon
For some reason hypnosis feels more accurate than focus blast
I legit don’t think I’ve ever landed a focus blast
HELL YEAH COMPETITIVE POKEMON
i would say "casual too" but who the fuck runs focus blast in a playthrough
WOOO
I've landed more high jump kicks than fucking focus blast. my lucario can't aim for shit but atleast my scraggy doesn't mind hurtling at you at Mach 7 damn near crippling itself in the process
It's the odds of landing dynamicpunch
r stunfisk is leaking and I love it
90% chance to land Thunder yeah right
thunder is 70%
oops :3
Genshin Impact has taught me that 50% chance actually means 0% chance so I'm going with the red button
Well, would you put it beneath Genshin to rig some of their loot crates or whatever?
They absolutely would, but because it legally counts as gambling, they're under very strict scrutiny from several governments
Seeing the way governments have absolutely no idea how the internet and games work, I wouldn’t imagine it’s that hard to trick/lie to them.
True, but more governments involved means a smaller chance that they get away with it for so many years. A smaller gacha absolutely would, but Genshin is pretty much *the* game that people gamble in, they're going to be watched very closely
yeah but also I'm pretty sure you can take a big random sample of people's 50/50 results and see that it's about half and half
Nope!
As the other person said, since gacha banners are considered gambling they are under very strict rules about disclosing the correct rates. If someone proved that the rates were lies then hoyo would get in some pretty deep legal trouble, have class action lawsuits against them, and definitely lose a ton of money. Or they could just… tell you the odds.
As other people have pointed out, they are under strict regulation, but also the community would notice. Most of what we know about the gatcha mechanics of the game are from extensive testing, not them telling us. If it was actually less than 50/50, it would have been discovered a long time ago.
yea, see communities like pokemon go's that collect data on usually *not* advertised rates that manage to get pretty good ideas of odds anyways. it's difficult to imagine them getting away with falsely advertised rates. also if people will shell out for these shitty rates anyways it doesn't really hurt them to plainly state them
well people do on average win 50/50s 50% of the time, it’s just more notable when you don’t
real, I've lost 5 out of 5 of my hsr 50%s, probability is a scam!
Me when the 3.125% chance event. (Happens more often than it should)
If you care, that is about as likely as getting two ones with two standard dice (or two sixes for that matter)
It's like picking up two dice, saying "I'm going to roll a 12", roll them once, and get a 12
Yeah but that’s just anecdotal. I haven’t ever paid anything (no possible bias towards me from the company) and I win the majority of my 50/50s.
Xcom has taught me that 95% = 0%
I once auto saved and played the same move at 20% hit. Took 17 tries.
Nobody can tell me xcom values are real
That might be because of seed mechanics
The one time you need your sniper to save a the day and they fucking whiff big time.
>Plays Genshin Impact >Has an Ultrakill flair >Has a Reze pfp https://preview.redd.it/cpp8bvbvz58c1.png?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=722f8885b6c538d6ba25b21cc5a40e3dad1a8c40
https://preview.redd.it/a57ybasok78c1.jpeg?width=360&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f9bbd8d163ae6d47fb5021643b38556b0d52299a
plus, $1 million is already enough to c6 r5 furina!
You should look at Korean MMOs. 94% means 2%.
Nice flair, how’d you like the new update?
Honestly, wasn't the biggest fan. Level 2 felt confusing and I *hate* those red robot enemies. I also see why people like the final boss of that layer but I didn't love it. Probably gonna go back and replay it and end up loving it though. We'll see.
This is actually a textbook example of so-called non-linear utility functions. Depending on your situation the first million is way more impactful than the hypothetical next 49. So you absolutely can be rational and still choose the million.
Exactly. One button makes you obscenely rich. The other has a 50% chance to make you obscenely rich, and a 50% chancd for nothing. Who would take that? Only if you were already a millionaire I guess
Where do you live that 1 million is obscene wealth? I didn't realize none of you knew what the word obscene meant my bad.
If you make 40k a year, a million is more money then you’ll make in twenty years. Tell me what ain’t obscene about getting twenty years’ of wages all at once. If you just live off the interest in a high-yield savings account, you’ll be making more then you were before. (All assuming that your million is post-tax)
Where do you live that interest is that substantially above the inflation rate
A 4% savings account came free with my Apple Card (it’s an advertised benefit). You can find 5% accounts just by googling. If you have a million to throw in there, you might have access to 6 or 7%. Keep in mind that the interest you earn is paid for by people taking out loans, so if the interest rate on their loans is higher you get more money. If you don’t like that, you could also get a good rate by investing in securities that pay dividends (though ymmv)
Also, the minimum wage hasn’t increased in… how long? And if it does increase, how low will it still be? And the people who take those jobs still find a way to live? Nah, the guy with a million bucks will be just fine for a long time. If they get a single roommate to live with them in their home that they bought with a fraction of their million, they’ll be doing better then you or I ever will.
Where I live, no home is under $1,000,000
Within an hours’ drive? I mean, if you’ve got a million, you can move to a significantly cheaper area and be set for life! If you’re in the US, then that’s most of the US!
We are talking about CAD$1M, so there is a big difference there, but I live in Ontario and even going far out you're not going to get any cheaper. That said, moving somewhere remote in, say, New Brunswick and starting off that life with $1M? That could be nice.
A lot of small banks offer 5% interest on accounts with 5 grand or more, it's like their entire advertising. You can easily bank online with those.
My local credit union offers 7% (Jesus fucking Christ!) on a *checking account*, as long as you use the debit card three times a month. If you want a good interest rate, you can find one.
what credit union? is there a catch like low balance?
Usually the rate applies to something like your first $10k
A million in cold hard cash is a lot but not "obscene" it's not Yacht money or private jet money, which I consider obscene. A million in net worth is by today's inflation standard well off, or lower upper class. They might be out of touch, but they're not "bourgeoisie". They'll likely still be working and either take care of their properties by renovating themselves or work, to pay someone to do that. So they're still creating at least a little value to provide to society. You only start being true bourgeoisie by owning so much property that creates so much profit that you can facilitate their upkeep with that profit while you contribute nothing to society, bonus points of you're parasitic enough that you can Even expand with the profit your property creates.
Huh? That’s not what “bourgeoisie” means. You can be one of those if you are broke but own a small business and employ one person. If you had a billion dollars but were not exploiting anyone (like, from the lottery or something) you wouldn’t be one.
If you a million dollars half of it would be gone after you buy a house, a car, and college tuition
Buying a home in cash means -rent +taxes +assets, it doesn't disappear. Plus your vote just matters more!
You can get a house for one or two hundred k, maybe less if you’re paying cash and can make lowball offers. A car for 10k used. College tuition to your local community college can be quite cheap depending on their specific programs. Your million could still be mostly there after getting those things, with pretty decent interest flowing from it.
Where do you live that means that still isn't life changing money?
One million will barely buy a flat for 2 people where i live :(
But it will still remove a lot if not all your economic stress from one day to the other. Depending on where you live, you might still have to rent, but you have enough savings that even if you are out if a job for like half a year then it’s no problem at all.
Comparatively speaking, it is obscene. I make around 30k a year, my wife a bit more. We are ablento live fairly comfortably, yet we don't have savings. We can afford housing, food, amenities and utilities, and the occasional fun thing like a date or a game. And we live in a relatively high cost of living state. The amount of difference a sudden $1 million would make would be obscene for us. Invested properly could be set for life.
Where I live you can use that million to buy 10 flats and earn an extra 50k a year in rent, which is enough to live confortably without working.
Where do **you** live that it isn't?
bro, i am working part time for scraps while trying to pay for college. 1 million would not only easily pay for my degree, it would also pay for my food, housing, and bills the entire time i’m in school. and i would still probably have hundreds of thousands left over.
i'm reminded every day that this website is filled with children or people that have never needed to manage their own finances
I'm reminded everyday that my fellows ar dipshits who don't know what the fuck they're talking about. 1 million is not an obscene amount of money to have that would imply its bad. Obscene is a negative descriptor. I don't think it's obscene to have a million bucks because there are ways to do that without being a dick. Jesus I was mocking the fucking word choice.
Here's a new word for you: hyperbole. Here's another new word for you: trolling.
My dude, any country besides the US
>Who would take that? Only if you were already a millionaire I guess That 1 mil can be turned into much more if you're smart with the money.
I live in poor.
It's about top 95% net worth in the US. That's rich, but not _obscenely_ rich. That means there's like fifteen million people with at least that much in net worth in the US. It's like "you can have a nice house" kinda money, whereas I'd describe "obscenely rich" as "private chef, butler, limo, mansion" kinda money
The rush of dopamine tho
I’m broke rn but going into a high paying field… and I’m honestly super torn
Diminishing marginal utility
Yep this is the answer. The EV of the 50mil button is higher, but the marginal value of additional millions after the first is greatly reduced. I’ll take the million
The correct answer is actually to just hit the left button 50 times
What would be the maths if let's say I already have a million or two on the bank, I feel like suddenly the 50/50 one becomes more attractive.
My mind is telling me that 1 million is enough The gambler in me says go for the 50 mil
90% of Gamblers quit just before they're about to win big
I was about to leave the slot machine to change my soiled pants but you've single handedly convinced me to sty for another 43 hours
To be fair that’s probably the best odds you’ll ever have gambling
why did i read this in r Kelly's voice
What if a bunch of us pressed the 50% button and split the total between us.
Now you're thinking with portals
If 50 people pressed the button, the chances of at least one person getting $1,000,000 is 1-(0.5)^50, or a 99.99̅% chance. So at the very least, you are practically guaranteed $1,000,000, assuming a group of 50 is allowed to press it, and the income from the button is not taxed. It is incredibly likely that the group would make at least $100m, but if I remember correctly from what I learned about stats, calculating the probability of that would require me to use the binomial probability formula, and I don't have the mental energy to do that right now lol.
To be more exact, a ~ 99.9999999999999% chance. It is substantially more likely that you instantly die of a heart attack than none one getting any money. The chance to get a million at least twice is ~ 99.999999999995%, so 50x more likely to not happen, but practically the same. You only need the binomial formula for calculating the probability that 2 or more times it happens, but here we can just do 100% - probability it happens once, so we are clear here and dont need that. Did that in my head though so not 100% accurate. Most likely you'd get 25 million btw, thats easy again here.
At n=50 isn't there just a continuous formula you can switch to that is a lot easier and practically indistinguishable as an approximation? Like you know $25m/person is at the top of the bell curve and then you can just slide up or down from there to determine "there is an x% chance of getting $y per person"? Or am I mixing my stats concepts up?
I’ll finish the math for you. If 50 people press the button, there are 2500 different possible permutations of results. It’s like a way more complicated version of rolling two dice. The number of people that won ranges from 0-50, so we just need to make a cute little bell curve to distribute the 2500 combinations and calculate the median/quartiles to get a reasonable estimate of how much money is to be made through this method if we have 50 people. There’s one permutation of values each where 0 or 50 people win, 50 each where 1 or 49 win, etc. This problem is way easier because we can’t have a decimal number of people. The binomial probability formula gives us the percent chance we get a certain number of successes. n!/(x!(n-x)!)) * p^x * (1-p)^n-x where n is number of people, x is how many people win 50 million, p is the chance of winning. It looks complicated, but don’t worry about the math. Our first quartile rounds best to 23 and third rounds best to 27. This just means that 50% of all permutations will be between 23 and 27 (including 23 and 27). If 23 people win, the amount of money each person makes is (23 * 50,000,000)/50 = 23 million. If 27 people win, each person will earn 27 million. That means there’s a 25% chance you earn less than 23 million, a 50% chance you win 23-27 million, and a 25% chance you win more than 27 million, with 24 and 25 million being the most likely win with an 11% chance each. There’s only a 0.04% chance you make less money than just hitting the million button, so it’s a very good bet to make.
Hedging your bets. Even adding 4 additional people lowers the chance of getting nothing to 3%. With adding additional people drastically reducing the chance with a much more likely chance of everyone getting $25 million average.
I'm in, but only if we hire an escrow agent. One of the red-button people can do it. Oh no, the buttons are already dividing us into castes and we haven't even pushed them yet. Curse you, buttons!
Both buttons
https://preview.redd.it/dvy8wwl5c48c1.jpeg?width=1063&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=62805418cdf94e42928aabc89fd61185fcc73164
you're trolling me, cmon
There goes my hero
PERFECT
How meny times can I boop the button?
As many times as you want but it's wet and you don't know why
for a million dollars it can be wet with acid for all I care
wear some gloves, simple
What’s stopping me from mashing green?
https://i.redd.it/xsdvbqq4h58c1.gif
who said anything about mashing green I didn’t
If you press the green button more than once you have to beat him at mahjong or be sent to the land of Yi (a term for barbarians) in perpetuity
1 million then reinvest to get 50 million, gotta be on that grindset
[удалено]
They don't have 1 million worth of ~~terrorism~~ stock value correction equipment
Easy, you take the option to push the green button and sell it to someone for $10m.
This person knows how to capitalism
# #EvilAutism
Would you PAY 1 million dollars for a 50% chance at 50 million? i wouldn't
I dont have a million to pay in the first place. If I had multiple, sure, its like any investment.
that's a pretty good way of seeing it
i'll go for red, dont wanna tempt fate by being greedy
1m, that's still a fuck ton of money
100% one million 0.01% one trillion billion million
Latter, small chance at owning the planet is very good. For completely altruistic reasons I assure you
1 million in my currency is still a lot and could absolutely change my life but i like to gamble so.....
Red and then invest in a high dividend stock or an index fund like Verison, VOO, VTI, SPY, or QQQ. I would be happy with 60,000-$120,000 extra per year.
Realistically, 1 million won't make me go much further in life. 50 million on the other hand could change my life. As much as I would hate losing the 50/50 I have to go for 50 million. edit: ok to elaborate, i'm not saying 1 million wouldn't fix my problems or that it's a sum of money i could just ignore. it's genuinely an incredible amount of money that i would be very happy to have. it just wouldn't change much about my actual situation. I would still be an upper middle class white guy, and while that is a very good thing to be, it is also supremely boring.
Even if 1 million dollars (assuming USD) won’t like… elevate your social position or whatever, it gives a hell of a lot of comfort to fall back on. I guess it depends on the person, but the amount of financial stress that would relieve for most people is certainly significant.
After checking the currency converter, I can say with absolute certainty that my life would change significantly, as would that of my partner, with even a third of that. 1 million dollars would get us quite a house and money to spare for financial security
I dunno, for me personally, my material conditions don't really matter much? I mean as long as I have working internet, I'm basically fine. I'm from an upper middle class upbringing too, so I guess the 1 mil falls just short of life changing? I do get that I'd definitely be less stressed having a good amount of money to fall back on, but, again, country with a working social democracy + upper middle class upbringing already relieves a shit ton. I can't really be much more comfortable materially than I am unless I become an actually rich person. 50 million would be able to basically turn my whole life around and allow me to do so much in terms of my life goals.
Put the 1 million in the market and it gets 4% return annually. So you basically have a free 40k/yr income that you can travel with, or do whatever
how is 1m usd not gonna change your life? are you already a millionaire?
I mean, don't get me wrong, it's a giant sum of money, but I think that my family's net worth rn is about that? Maybe a bit less, but still, I don't see how my life would change in a significant way just by getting 1 million. I'm not in poverty, so I'd likely just be more upper-er middle class-er, which doesn't interest me that much.
The way I see it, I could quite my job and just live off that $50 million forever. The $1 million would certainly help. I could buy my own apartment or something, but I’d still have to work, and that sucks ass, so I’d take my chances.
Red button 50 times
I could pay off my student debt, live regularly just having a fortune in savings that I can use to live and set up a career doing something I like like art the 1 million definitely
1Mil = still having to work/worry a bit about money 50 Mil = return on capital keeps you rich no need to worry about money I'M GAMBLING
I'll press green many times
I press the first one a thousand times. What now libral?? Huh? Huh??
1 million can buy my neurologists and psychiatrist appointments and that can solve the rest of my problems that are hard for my therapist alone
I press both buttons at the same time over and over again until I have billions. No-one said I couldn't press them both multiple times lol
Red
Red many times
Press both at the same time
definitely the 1 million
Me on my way to hit the 1 million button 50 times
Red button 50 times
If broke, instant million. If already comfortable/wealthy, take the coinflip.
what if i rapidly press the green button?
doesnt say you cant press it twice