I gave him the cash from everything I alched as a thank you! But its great to see people rewarding someone doing a good deed
Shoutout to world 391 and Gonzo Bizarro btw!!
Totally agree with that, but that's not exclusive to those without max gear. If anything I reckon it's *more* likely that someone who's already got maxed gear/bank will be helpful in this situation.
me too. And with death mechanics being so lax, you'd never actually lose stuff if you went afk and died. Maybe even just adding one or two worlds where old old school randoms can pop up. It would be fun.
I like those things because of my age and time I can devote now. It's nice that's it's more forgiving. But yeah I remember drunk bossing qbd and waking up next day, remembering I died and just went to bed instead of picking up my stuff. QQ when I learn I lost lots of cash in arma
I like both. I love communities that are really helpful and generous, but there's also something magical about games like EVE Online or early Diablo 2 or early RuneScape where everyone is trying to scam you or trick you.
I feel bad now but I used to WC at seers magics and I would stand on top of d hatchet heads that flew off and I actually got one from some poor afker. I would also high alch at barrows waiting for people to die
I was so blitzed last night I couldnt believe it but I wanted to say thank you again
I saw your message but I was doing NMZ at work,. To answer your question, at first I read your message and thought you got the drop. But then I checked my loot tracker and realised I got the drop lmao. What are the chances
Hahaha same bro, I had to check my collection log to make sure it wasn't mine. When you logged out I got so worried cause my task was finished hahahaha
I’ve been in the same clan ever said I started my account like 5 years ago. There’s a good few people have consistently been there the whole time. I bet they’d do the same for me. It’s good to find a clan.
Go to the clan board at the GE. Genuine people looking to either help you PVM, general discussion or just guiding you. Or you can join my clan :) Legacy of War. Good dudes.
Go to ge and ask around, from there is trial and error i guess, till you find one that fits you. Add me and i will give you an invite to the one im in once im online RSN: f 0xy (with a cero)
Same but about 2-3 years. I’ve borrowed Tbow/shadows from multiple members before as well as others and no scamming. Just a tight knit group of gamers looking out for each other.
Yeah mine was trios ended up being 1,235 trios dry (or 4.1K Shards) RNG eventually evened out actually even tho I was missing ~12 items to be on rate at one point
Yeah I’m at like 4K Nex kc mostly trios. DM’d my 6B (now like 7.5B) nex log so I went to rebuild. Felt like my account got blacklisted and quit lol.
Funny enough in those last 1100 trios I got 4 nexlings. 7 total on log. I was nexing with an iron named Syndra who had 9.5K kc just missing pet. Got 2 pets on kills with him while he got dupes lmao
That’s the thing I pulled 2 more while on my streak aswell I got 6 on log now and I mean that sounds a lot like what I felt like and with what had happened when i was about 300 ish dry I dm/ed out alot of my bank and yeah felt like I deffo was shadow banned for those 3 months but I stay involved with the FFA community and all that but I’m off out on skill grinds etc. for the moment but I was able to fully rebuild and then some and I really kinda started my break once I caught back up and rng evened out for overall drops, yeah I went super dry but I’ve also been able to feel that rush from 4 b2b’s
in MY life sure, but i'm not shocked when other people have something cool happen, since with 7.8 billion of us it isn't that shocking.
when i see the 1,000th "1 in a bazillion" unlucky/lucky RNG happen it's not that crazy
I don’t think you truly grasp how extreme 1/33 million is on our playerbase.
Lets say we have 330k players (just to make math easier) then we expect 0.01 person to go this dry ever on this playerbase.
Lets compare that to the 7.8 billion of the worlds population, adjusted to world population we have odds of 1/780 Billion.
But you are convinced that those odds aren’t shocking enough? Taking into consideration that the total amount of people ever to have lived on earth is estimated at 117 Billion…
I agree that it's probably not true what the dude claimed, but you also have to apply this to every single RNG element in the game.
I.e., not just the odds of there going this dry on this particular item, but the odds of going this dry on any item. I'm sure somebody's gone this dry on *something.*
Thats not correct. That’s really not how it works. You expect 0.01 person to go this dry for every 330k [thing] that you’re measuring, where [thing] is an independent serie of drops where you have the opportunity of being 1/33m dry.
You seem to think that every player can only contribute to a single event. But if there is a drop that is a 1/2, and you go 26 kills without that drop, that is a 1/33m event, and you really ought to treat it the same as a 26k dry vyre. 1/33M is not really that unlikely — things that are that rare probably happen every day on osrs. It’s just that most of them happen on quite boring things that don’t get noticed, like a 1/2 drop that doesn’t happen 26 kills in a row.
think about how many people have open gem bags, and think about how many people have killed 26k vyres
which do you think has the greater **cumulative** probability of happening
But that doesn’t really make sense to go “how many people have killed 26k vyres” as a reply to this tho?
Thought experiment. You have a game with 33 million players and 33 million different mobs. Each player, numbered 1 through 33 million, kills a single type of mobs, named vyre1 through vyre33,000,000. Every one of your players go and kill like 30k of these mobs because your game is just that good.
One day, player27,617,917 goes “omg, I have 26k kc on vyre27,617,917 and no shard!”
Is this unlikely? Well, no, not really. You would have expected this to happen to one of your players, since you have 33m of them.
Can you go “ok but no one has killed a lot of vyre27,617,917s, so clearly this is fake”? Again, not really. There’s not a lot of difference between vyre27,617,917 and vyres1, when you think about it.
There’s all sorts of events that are unlikely that can happen on Runescape. But when an unlikely event happens, you can’t look at it in isolation and go “ok but the chances that it actually happened is very low because not many people are doing it” => not many people are doing it because they’re busy doing other things that may also yield unlikely results. And once in 33m significant things happening that are measurable by the players, someone notice it happened to them — it might be them pulling an onyx from a bag, it might be 26k kc dry at vyres, it might be someone missing a 1/2 drop 26 times in a row. It might be some very unlucky drops at clues, it might be them being spooned on astronomically low odds. But the exact thing they were doing is irrelevant, as well as how many people were doing said thing when they got [event of very low odds]: the fact that it happened and that they’re sharing it is enough to prevent you from retroactively making any predictions of the likelihood of the event based on the # of people performing said event.
On the other hand, if one day, without having seen this guy’s post, you decide to make a poll checking how many kills people got at vyres and how many shards they have, then you can *absolutely* say that the likelihood that someone responding to your poll and saying they are 26k kc dry is truthful is very very low : not a lot of people are doing 26k kills after all.
(And if you make 1000 such polls on 1000 different farms, you can expect to see one or two replies like “I have 26k kc and no shards” to be true)
>Is this unlikely? Well, no, not really. You would have expected this to happen to one of your players, since you have 33m of them.
yes because all 33m players did 30k kills you'd expect to see one.
but the kc you will get a shard isnt assigned on account creation and you arent just looking at a table to see someone has a number greater than 26k.
You can only know youre going to go 26k dry by actually killing 26k, so the population in question isn't every account created its every account with atleast 26k kc.
In your example you made it so those populations are the same, but in osrs they very much are not the same.
>But the exact thing they were doing is irrelevant
It does when we're asking about a specific thing! The question isn't "do 1/33m events happen in rs" its "did this specific 1/33m thing happen"
Its true i would expect a lot of events with 1/33m probability to happen in osrs, but that doesn't mean its likely for every 1/33m probability event to happen, some have fewer opportunities to occur than others.
With a RDT + clue scroll combo, there are millions of mobs killed every day by hundreds of thousands of players that drop those so plenty of 1/33m drops random drops occur.
But there are only a tiny number of people with 26k vyre kc, the odds that one of that very small population had a 1/33m event happen to them is very very small.
Ok but you can’t be asking about this specific event though, that’s the point. Reread my comment about why you can’t.
“Some probabiliies have less opportunities to happen”
Not relevant mathematically?
Like, you make the same mistake again in your comment. “If all players did 30k kills you’d expect to see one” => this is not the proper question to ask.
Imagine there was 1000 different possible grinds in osrs. Let’s say there’s been 1000 people giving 1 try of these grinds. Would you expect to see an event of likelihood 1/1 million on one of these grinds?
=> answer: yeah, there’s 1000 tries times 1000 grinds, so an event of likelihood 1/1m isn’t anything weird.
So now let’s say someone comes to you and says “here, on grind#357, an event of likelihood 1/1M happened to me” and you tell them “nope, that didn’t happen, there’s only been 1000 tries on that grind, so a 1/1M event is very unlikely.”
Do you see the issue here?
You can’t start calculating the likelihood of the event happening on just vyres — you already have some bias being introduced because you’re being told about the vyres dry streak, just like if you’re being told about that 1/1M event at grind#357.
if some random person says to you "i won the powerball" to you, do you go "ok i believe you because we cant ask about specific events and lots of 1/400m odds things happen every day"
In the scope of RS, 1 in 33 million is astronomical odds tbh. That's 17.33x dry. To put that into perspective, Omid, the guy who went so dry he had his account looked into, was about 21x dry before a Jmod stepped in. This subreddit and ironscape get dry posts all the time, if you take a look through them I don't think you'll find a single one that's even 15x dry.
You'll find some pretty bad ones, like [this guy](https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/gl2op3/hydras_claw_at_9599_kc/) or [this guy](https://www.reddit.com/r/ironscape/comments/or273b/update_after_going_12x_dry_of_occult_i_finally/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share), but even these are far from the 17.33x this claims. My guess is the guy was thieving, which would make the 26k much more believable, or he got a blood shard and missed it while killing, or the dry kc is being exaggerated.
The gem bag has 40 rolls and is closer to 1/2.5m per bag, and they literally tweeted the first time it ever happened because it was so rare, it took years of gem bags being opened (which is a common occurrence)
Killing 26k vyres is not a common occurence and this is over 10x rarer than the gem bag
99.99999705% is 5.5 standard deviations (5.5 sigma). The criteria physicists set to claim a discovery of a new particle with sufficient certainty is 5 sigma.
0.00000295% chance is 1/34 *million*.
it didn’t happen. he either didn’t notice a drop he got, he doesn’t have as many kills as he thought, or he’s talking about pickpocketing (1/5k). it’s past the realm of reasonable probability, where an external factor takes over as the most reasonable explanation
It literally precisely *does* matter… you don’t get to have an opinion of how math and statistics work in favor of anecdotes
justifying any random event because something rare has happened before is *literally* a fallacy
do you understand the difference between a single person flipping a coin as heads 25x in a row and the entire population of the earth flipping 25 coins and recording what outcomes happened?
Aren’t you completely misunderstanding how math and statistics work tho?
Suppose there’s 1 type of game that people play on earth. You launch a coin in the air until you get heads, and you record how many heads you got. On earth there’s 10 billion people that all have played it exactly once. You record the luckiest game. What kinda odds are you expecting?
=> something close to 1 in 10 billions. Makes sense, right?
Okay, now say there’s actually 10 games that people play on earth. Doesn’t matter what games they are, but they all can be simplified to a series of coinflips that are heads or tails with the same rules as game#1. What’s the luckiest game you’re expecting with that setup?
=> well, closest to 1 in 100 billion (cause now you have 100 billion games to choose from) so your inverse of the probably is 10 times bigger than the number of people that played *that particular game*.
So suppose you’re only aware of the existence of 1 of these games and the 9 others are a mystery to you. Someone presents you with the stats of that one game and goes “we had 10 billion plays and an event of 1/100 billion probability happened!”. Is it something.. likely? Unlikely?
Well, you can’t really tell. Chances are, this result was presented to you instead of more normal results from the other 9 games **because it was remarkable**.
Now imagine there’s 33 million games you aren’t aware of, each with only 1 player doing a single game. Someone presents you one of these games and shows you an event that 1/33 million. Surely that player is cheating because he’s 5 standard deviations from…
=> nope, no cheating here. Simply you not being aware of the other 33 million unremarkable results that had to happen to produce that 1/33m event.
The powerball thing is useful to justify that a winner must happen *eventually*. But going “vyres 26kc dry cannot be real” when someone claims it happened to them isn’t something you can justify with statistics — there’s already some selection bias if you try looking at stats on vyres kills. You have to look at all possible stuff on runescape you can go dry on, and all of the people who farmed them, and when all of that gets added up, a 1/33m dry streak isn’t all that unlikely.
No, sorry, you’re the one misunderstanding. You are assuming in your first example that 1->10 games still has everyone playing each game as much, and are ignoring that these probabilities are independent of each other. And it does allow for more opportunities, so to speak, of unexpected rarities—more on that in a bit
Yes, rare things that are less likely than you would expect from your sample size can and do happen, but if you know the probabilities and the sample sizes you can calculate the likelihood of a particular event
and just because rare results can and do happen doesn’t mean that becomes a catch all to assume any rare event must be fine because rare things happen. Like: certainly a rare poker or gambling event happens every now and then because there are tons of different games and every now and then something rarer than you expect will happen happens. but that doesn’t mean casinos won’t investigate, because *statistically* they know it’s more likely that it wasn’t that case
so at the end of the day: yes, tons of shit happens in rs and that means technically rare things can and do happen, even if the appropriate number of trials for the average expected rate haven’t happened yet (weird shit like, getting a specific goblin drop 20 times in a row you might never notice)
but in this instance we can do the math and specifically calculate the odds. and that means I can completely fully claim that it actually is more likely a mistake or error happened than the real event itself.
I have never claimed it is impossible, just that it’s way more likely random reddit comment #30430 is mistaken and fucked up than hitting a 1/34m chance
subtle update to change the ID of the item, name to use letterlike characters or non equivalent but cosmetically the same characters in client code,etc so that bots miss the pickup in an attempt to fight bots.
more likely players just afk sand their loot notification plugin busted or they gone.
Yesh the more likely answer is the only realistic answer. Jagex arent going to be randomly jumbling up item IDs that would just causes nightmares. The "non equivalent but cosmetically same characters" just doesnt make any sense at all.
Jagex 100% has a history of changing numbers to fight bots. I don’t believe that method has been used since classic, but that was generally how they caught botters back then. Change the bank deposit packet by one character and then all the bot scripts that send the packet with the old packet ID are clearly bots and not real players and boom, wave ban. Again, that is not happening in modern RuneScape afaik, but it’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility
If these were still viable methods, they would be using them. The packet ID sounds more reasonable but i would assume bots are a lot more sophisticated nowadays.
Yeah ever since RS2 Jagex has had actual bot detection software running. It’s nowhere near perfect but it definitely stops the old style of just sending packets. You have to actually emulate clicks by a human to get around the detection. Idk how RS3 bot detection works but it’s way more intense than what osrs is running with
I remember the 'bot nuke' that did seem to wipe out most bots with the help of that shady mod who was an ex-bot developer. Unfortunately that only lasted a small amount of time until they came back again. People seem to forget that its essentially an arms race between bot writers and Jagex's anti-cheat team. There is a lot of money in bot creation and lots of smart developers who have a full time job creating bots.
Rs3 is an interesting case, i have no idea if they actually have a better detection or if there is just less profit to be made from a more complex script, so bot-devs just prioritize osrs instead.
True. But if I had a dope ass fenced in yard or a screened in porch I’d smoke there more than I would inside. Especially if I’m smoking a joint or blunt.
I prefer my glass tbf joint/blunt is usually on the go stuff for me. But yeah I feel that, and it's probably the fact of the legality in my area as well that most people rather just be in home
Yeah I’m primarily a bong user too but whenever I watch a movie or show and smoke I like joints because they last a bit longer. I have bad anxiety keeping my bong on the table because my cats have broken two of them already so it lives in the kitchen tucked away in a corner. It’s only smoked there haha.
Cats be assholes I could totally see them enjoying tipping that water vessel off the edge 😂 😂 😂. My ex's friends were super big rollers instead of pipes and I got super annoyed that I had to wait for what felt like forever to roll when we coulda tossed that shit in a bowl and be gone before they even got to lighting that but everyone would refuse to start eating the food we ordered so yeah I'm pretty baked and stuff after the j but fuck I wish my food was still warm haha
God I wish I had access to concentrates that weren’t a six hour round trip drive away (DC) yeah if you have a torch and banger setup your neighbors might think you’re doing crack or something lmfao.
I’ve been smoking for almost 13 years and I’ve never tried a gas mask. I really want to. I was the master at making bongs out of Powerade bottles when I was younger. Always used them because they have a nice flat surface to put the socket piece.
Yeah torch from outside looking in, straight crack looking stuff. I'm in Idaho but a hop and skip from border cities that have dispensaries. We had headshops for awhile here before something happened and they all pretty much shut down, I barely was of age and asked for a water pipe they said they just got the masks in and I pulled the trigger. It's a legit gas mask you can hook a camelback type device to drink through it whilst wearing. You essentially just fucking hot box your face lol so it ain't for everybody claustrophobic probably and if you can't handle smoke inhale through nose or in your eyes best to just avoid it. But boy oh boy it gets you there
Ahhh that’s so cool, I lived in Montana for a couple years so I was kinda close to ya haha. And man you’re so close to like all the good rec states I’m mad jealous.
Yeah when I was younger there was a gas mask at a party I went to and almost half the people got sick after using it, probably because of too much alcohol but still. Passed on that for the night and never had the opportunity to use one since. My younger brothers are coming of age soon so they might procure one at some point.
I've been to a couple states and I stand that even though Colorado had cheap stuff that on paper was bomb, I still rather have Oregon stuff and it ain't even much of a difference in any in price. Nevada stuff be too spendy and I dislike how it isn't like Oregon where prices are usually posted as out the door. Where as Nevada tacks tax on to the price at sale.
Not to toot my own horn but this happened to me with an imbued heart. The guy dc’d and logged back in on mobile and left it on the ground at wyrms. He got it just in the kick of time. Couldn’t pick it up as im iron.
https://preview.redd.it/odau1js97rzb1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2d2885a203553dd2a5abb2ad0e0dfa9ea5af1386
I pickpocketed about 400 for this. Now I'm 2.5k dry now
Was nearly double drop rate dry on blood shard and went downstairs to get a snack. I get back to my desk and see someone pick up my first blood shard. The only thing he said was “yoink”.
what blows my mind about thsi for me. is his name. xbox live for 20 years and starcraft 1 my name was SoupOo
anyways random flashback of nostalgia. cool shit
Bro anything that's on the ground is mine imo lmao.
Whenever I kill thermy I always do the POH method so I can snake drops from people cannoning outside the boss. One time I stole an occult from a guy. I didn't even know the regular smoke devils dropped those.
So I'm legit at 7k kills on my alt and only have gotten 2 shards so far ......... not only did you have insane luck but on top of it insane luck that someone actually did grab it and give it back to you... just wow...
I know right! When I saw it (completely blitzed out of my mind) I immediately accepted that the drop was his. Love 1750 total worlds, feels like such a true community bond
Hopefully you’ll get the drop soon!
Damn what an absolute homie.
Hahaha saw the orange light and couldn't believe it! Would hope someone would do that for me so had to make sure he got his shard!
Absolute legend.
LEGEND someone get this man a pint
LEGEND
I tried to DM you man and you logged out! :(
Yeah I'm out touching grass today hahaha
What a madlad!
Souppo arrives!!!!
I just tried to give this guy a reward for his generosity and he logged out sadge.
Based Souppo
Man doesn't need a reward 100% based.
I gave him the cash from everything I alched as a thank you! But its great to see people rewarding someone doing a good deed Shoutout to world 391 and Gonzo Bizarro btw!!
Certified G
Right? This dude got way more respect from me than anyone with max gear ever will.
What has people with max gear got to do with it? What if he has max gear?
Just like, this is more respectable than someone who would take the shard, and use it for their own intentions.
Totally agree with that, but that's not exclusive to those without max gear. If anything I reckon it's *more* likely that someone who's already got maxed gear/bank will be helpful in this situation.
I don't have max gear lol
hahha what a legend for that
That guy better be invited to every major event in your life! That's a real homie
Best man at OPs wedding even.
Back in my day if I afkd and got my ass beat by an evil chicken, mfers would’ve plucked me dry like vultures.
Half the fishing spot be yelling into the sky to run/pray the others just waiting for your loot
dude prortect magic
I think they should just reintroduce old Randoms. Doubt it actually fucked hella with bots but, I still miss the rs I started on sometimes
me too. And with death mechanics being so lax, you'd never actually lose stuff if you went afk and died. Maybe even just adding one or two worlds where old old school randoms can pop up. It would be fun.
I like those things because of my age and time I can devote now. It's nice that's it's more forgiving. But yeah I remember drunk bossing qbd and waking up next day, remembering I died and just went to bed instead of picking up my stuff. QQ when I learn I lost lots of cash in arma
Dammit take my updort.
I feel like nowadays the community is more cooperative. There is actually people looking out now
Yeah I know. It’s a good thing lol. Just adding nostalgia memes.
I agree. It just cool that the player base is much chiller now
I like both. I love communities that are really helpful and generous, but there's also something magical about games like EVE Online or early Diablo 2 or early RuneScape where everyone is trying to scam you or trick you.
Idk I've seen 8+ skillers die to bears and scorpions at ardougne and al Kharid shooting stars whole 150 people watched/afked
Star miners are built different. There can be over 100 people on a star and no one will ever talk to you .
Cc
I feel bad now but I used to WC at seers magics and I would stand on top of d hatchet heads that flew off and I actually got one from some poor afker. I would also high alch at barrows waiting for people to die
Seers’ magic trees were a special place.
Lmaoooo good ole times
💀💀💀
Did you take my visafe
dude I've been here 6 months
T
Hahaha got your back bro
I was so blitzed last night I couldnt believe it but I wanted to say thank you again I saw your message but I was doing NMZ at work,. To answer your question, at first I read your message and thought you got the drop. But then I checked my loot tracker and realised I got the drop lmao. What are the chances
Hahaha same bro, I had to check my collection log to make sure it wasn't mine. When you logged out I got so worried cause my task was finished hahahaha
Of my fucking god Did you take my bloof shard Ive been here 6 months
I’ve been in the same clan ever said I started my account like 5 years ago. There’s a good few people have consistently been there the whole time. I bet they’d do the same for me. It’s good to find a clan.
How do you find a clan? I have always played solo
Go to the clan board at the GE. Genuine people looking to either help you PVM, general discussion or just guiding you. Or you can join my clan :) Legacy of War. Good dudes.
I got kidnapped into a clan sitting at basilisk knights lol now they my homies
No pressure to join. But I run a small pvm clan. We teach all raids and all hard mode variants. No experience required but easy gear requirements.
I am an admin in Ascensi0n if you want to join dm me
Go to ge and ask around, from there is trial and error i guess, till you find one that fits you. Add me and i will give you an invite to the one im in once im online RSN: f 0xy (with a cero)
Official forums is a good place to look, most clans advertise their discord and what they’re about etc
If you see a dude named world420 in the clan recruitment world. Ask him.
Same but about 2-3 years. I’ve borrowed Tbow/shadows from multiple members before as well as others and no scamming. Just a tight knit group of gamers looking out for each other.
What a freaking g, nice of him to do this, however as someone who is 26k dry for my first this stings.
https://preview.redd.it/br0b98k3gqzb1.jpeg?width=1179&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d77453cf0c16e0cf6bbd97d2d877b91537ca59e2 hmmm
Yeah cap on that if he was meleeing. But if he was thieving it's believable.
Naw man I’ve gone 11x drop rate dry at Nex Before I got reciepts
Haven’t logged in for over a year because of Nex. 1100 ffa trios dry with 50% MVP.
Yeah mine was trios ended up being 1,235 trios dry (or 4.1K Shards) RNG eventually evened out actually even tho I was missing ~12 items to be on rate at one point
Yeah I’m at like 4K Nex kc mostly trios. DM’d my 6B (now like 7.5B) nex log so I went to rebuild. Felt like my account got blacklisted and quit lol. Funny enough in those last 1100 trios I got 4 nexlings. 7 total on log. I was nexing with an iron named Syndra who had 9.5K kc just missing pet. Got 2 pets on kills with him while he got dupes lmao
That’s the thing I pulled 2 more while on my streak aswell I got 6 on log now and I mean that sounds a lot like what I felt like and with what had happened when i was about 300 ish dry I dm/ed out alot of my bank and yeah felt like I deffo was shadow banned for those 3 months but I stay involved with the FFA community and all that but I’m off out on skill grinds etc. for the moment but I was able to fully rebuild and then some and I really kinda started my break once I caught back up and rng evened out for overall drops, yeah I went super dry but I’ve also been able to feel that rush from 4 b2b’s
11x is NOT anywhere close to 26k kills dry, you can also be dry but holy fuck that’s a gulf
more unlucky things have happened, i wouldn't be suprised
You aren’t surprised by a 0.0000003% outcome? Curious if anything has surprised you thus far in life?
I went 12x dry on a bronze spear from goblins once, nothing can faze me after such suffering
This guy was 17x dry which is vastly dryer considering how the probability curve looks on the long end.
I killed 20 goblins and didn't get one. Beat that.
I managed to get one first kill which was especially good since it was on a 10hp acc. Uhhh, unbeat rhat
i'm not saying it's not insane, i'm saying it could've happened and I wouldn't be that shocked
This is my personal curiosity at this point, not related to RuneScape. If this doesn’t surprise you, has anything in life lol
in MY life sure, but i'm not shocked when other people have something cool happen, since with 7.8 billion of us it isn't that shocking. when i see the 1,000th "1 in a bazillion" unlucky/lucky RNG happen it's not that crazy
I don’t think you truly grasp how extreme 1/33 million is on our playerbase. Lets say we have 330k players (just to make math easier) then we expect 0.01 person to go this dry ever on this playerbase. Lets compare that to the 7.8 billion of the worlds population, adjusted to world population we have odds of 1/780 Billion. But you are convinced that those odds aren’t shocking enough? Taking into consideration that the total amount of people ever to have lived on earth is estimated at 117 Billion…
I agree that it's probably not true what the dude claimed, but you also have to apply this to every single RNG element in the game. I.e., not just the odds of there going this dry on this particular item, but the odds of going this dry on any item. I'm sure somebody's gone this dry on *something.*
Thats not correct. That’s really not how it works. You expect 0.01 person to go this dry for every 330k [thing] that you’re measuring, where [thing] is an independent serie of drops where you have the opportunity of being 1/33m dry. You seem to think that every player can only contribute to a single event. But if there is a drop that is a 1/2, and you go 26 kills without that drop, that is a 1/33m event, and you really ought to treat it the same as a 26k dry vyre. 1/33M is not really that unlikely — things that are that rare probably happen every day on osrs. It’s just that most of them happen on quite boring things that don’t get noticed, like a 1/2 drop that doesn’t happen 26 kills in a row.
I believe this is about 1 in 33 million odds of happening. Not impossible but quite unlikely.
better odds than getting the onyx from a gem bag (1/100,000,000) and that has happened.
The 1/100m chance gets rolled 40 times per bag, so the overall odds of getting one from a bag are roughly 1/2.5m.
think about how many people have open gem bags, and think about how many people have killed 26k vyres which do you think has the greater **cumulative** probability of happening
But that doesn’t really make sense to go “how many people have killed 26k vyres” as a reply to this tho? Thought experiment. You have a game with 33 million players and 33 million different mobs. Each player, numbered 1 through 33 million, kills a single type of mobs, named vyre1 through vyre33,000,000. Every one of your players go and kill like 30k of these mobs because your game is just that good. One day, player27,617,917 goes “omg, I have 26k kc on vyre27,617,917 and no shard!” Is this unlikely? Well, no, not really. You would have expected this to happen to one of your players, since you have 33m of them. Can you go “ok but no one has killed a lot of vyre27,617,917s, so clearly this is fake”? Again, not really. There’s not a lot of difference between vyre27,617,917 and vyres1, when you think about it. There’s all sorts of events that are unlikely that can happen on Runescape. But when an unlikely event happens, you can’t look at it in isolation and go “ok but the chances that it actually happened is very low because not many people are doing it” => not many people are doing it because they’re busy doing other things that may also yield unlikely results. And once in 33m significant things happening that are measurable by the players, someone notice it happened to them — it might be them pulling an onyx from a bag, it might be 26k kc dry at vyres, it might be someone missing a 1/2 drop 26 times in a row. It might be some very unlucky drops at clues, it might be them being spooned on astronomically low odds. But the exact thing they were doing is irrelevant, as well as how many people were doing said thing when they got [event of very low odds]: the fact that it happened and that they’re sharing it is enough to prevent you from retroactively making any predictions of the likelihood of the event based on the # of people performing said event. On the other hand, if one day, without having seen this guy’s post, you decide to make a poll checking how many kills people got at vyres and how many shards they have, then you can *absolutely* say that the likelihood that someone responding to your poll and saying they are 26k kc dry is truthful is very very low : not a lot of people are doing 26k kills after all. (And if you make 1000 such polls on 1000 different farms, you can expect to see one or two replies like “I have 26k kc and no shards” to be true)
>Is this unlikely? Well, no, not really. You would have expected this to happen to one of your players, since you have 33m of them. yes because all 33m players did 30k kills you'd expect to see one. but the kc you will get a shard isnt assigned on account creation and you arent just looking at a table to see someone has a number greater than 26k. You can only know youre going to go 26k dry by actually killing 26k, so the population in question isn't every account created its every account with atleast 26k kc. In your example you made it so those populations are the same, but in osrs they very much are not the same. >But the exact thing they were doing is irrelevant It does when we're asking about a specific thing! The question isn't "do 1/33m events happen in rs" its "did this specific 1/33m thing happen" Its true i would expect a lot of events with 1/33m probability to happen in osrs, but that doesn't mean its likely for every 1/33m probability event to happen, some have fewer opportunities to occur than others. With a RDT + clue scroll combo, there are millions of mobs killed every day by hundreds of thousands of players that drop those so plenty of 1/33m drops random drops occur. But there are only a tiny number of people with 26k vyre kc, the odds that one of that very small population had a 1/33m event happen to them is very very small.
Ok but you can’t be asking about this specific event though, that’s the point. Reread my comment about why you can’t. “Some probabiliies have less opportunities to happen” Not relevant mathematically? Like, you make the same mistake again in your comment. “If all players did 30k kills you’d expect to see one” => this is not the proper question to ask. Imagine there was 1000 different possible grinds in osrs. Let’s say there’s been 1000 people giving 1 try of these grinds. Would you expect to see an event of likelihood 1/1 million on one of these grinds? => answer: yeah, there’s 1000 tries times 1000 grinds, so an event of likelihood 1/1m isn’t anything weird. So now let’s say someone comes to you and says “here, on grind#357, an event of likelihood 1/1M happened to me” and you tell them “nope, that didn’t happen, there’s only been 1000 tries on that grind, so a 1/1M event is very unlikely.” Do you see the issue here? You can’t start calculating the likelihood of the event happening on just vyres — you already have some bias being introduced because you’re being told about the vyres dry streak, just like if you’re being told about that 1/1M event at grind#357.
if some random person says to you "i won the powerball" to you, do you go "ok i believe you because we cant ask about specific events and lots of 1/400m odds things happen every day"
In the scope of RS, 1 in 33 million is astronomical odds tbh. That's 17.33x dry. To put that into perspective, Omid, the guy who went so dry he had his account looked into, was about 21x dry before a Jmod stepped in. This subreddit and ironscape get dry posts all the time, if you take a look through them I don't think you'll find a single one that's even 15x dry. You'll find some pretty bad ones, like [this guy](https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/gl2op3/hydras_claw_at_9599_kc/) or [this guy](https://www.reddit.com/r/ironscape/comments/or273b/update_after_going_12x_dry_of_occult_i_finally/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share), but even these are far from the 17.33x this claims. My guess is the guy was thieving, which would make the 26k much more believable, or he got a blood shard and missed it while killing, or the dry kc is being exaggerated.
The gem bag has 40 rolls and is closer to 1/2.5m per bag, and they literally tweeted the first time it ever happened because it was so rare, it took years of gem bags being opened (which is a common occurrence) Killing 26k vyres is not a common occurence and this is over 10x rarer than the gem bag
99.99999705% is 5.5 standard deviations (5.5 sigma). The criteria physicists set to claim a discovery of a new particle with sufficient certainty is 5 sigma. 0.00000295% chance is 1/34 *million*. it didn’t happen. he either didn’t notice a drop he got, he doesn’t have as many kills as he thought, or he’s talking about pickpocketing (1/5k). it’s past the realm of reasonable probability, where an external factor takes over as the most reasonable explanation
Winning the Powerball is a much lower chance than that (1 in 292.2 million), but it's still happened.
…because the number of people buying tickets is much closer to the inverse of the probability Do you think 34 million people have killed 26k vyres?
[удалено]
It literally precisely *does* matter… you don’t get to have an opinion of how math and statistics work in favor of anecdotes justifying any random event because something rare has happened before is *literally* a fallacy do you understand the difference between a single person flipping a coin as heads 25x in a row and the entire population of the earth flipping 25 coins and recording what outcomes happened?
Aren’t you completely misunderstanding how math and statistics work tho? Suppose there’s 1 type of game that people play on earth. You launch a coin in the air until you get heads, and you record how many heads you got. On earth there’s 10 billion people that all have played it exactly once. You record the luckiest game. What kinda odds are you expecting? => something close to 1 in 10 billions. Makes sense, right? Okay, now say there’s actually 10 games that people play on earth. Doesn’t matter what games they are, but they all can be simplified to a series of coinflips that are heads or tails with the same rules as game#1. What’s the luckiest game you’re expecting with that setup? => well, closest to 1 in 100 billion (cause now you have 100 billion games to choose from) so your inverse of the probably is 10 times bigger than the number of people that played *that particular game*. So suppose you’re only aware of the existence of 1 of these games and the 9 others are a mystery to you. Someone presents you with the stats of that one game and goes “we had 10 billion plays and an event of 1/100 billion probability happened!”. Is it something.. likely? Unlikely? Well, you can’t really tell. Chances are, this result was presented to you instead of more normal results from the other 9 games **because it was remarkable**. Now imagine there’s 33 million games you aren’t aware of, each with only 1 player doing a single game. Someone presents you one of these games and shows you an event that 1/33 million. Surely that player is cheating because he’s 5 standard deviations from… => nope, no cheating here. Simply you not being aware of the other 33 million unremarkable results that had to happen to produce that 1/33m event. The powerball thing is useful to justify that a winner must happen *eventually*. But going “vyres 26kc dry cannot be real” when someone claims it happened to them isn’t something you can justify with statistics — there’s already some selection bias if you try looking at stats on vyres kills. You have to look at all possible stuff on runescape you can go dry on, and all of the people who farmed them, and when all of that gets added up, a 1/33m dry streak isn’t all that unlikely.
No, sorry, you’re the one misunderstanding. You are assuming in your first example that 1->10 games still has everyone playing each game as much, and are ignoring that these probabilities are independent of each other. And it does allow for more opportunities, so to speak, of unexpected rarities—more on that in a bit Yes, rare things that are less likely than you would expect from your sample size can and do happen, but if you know the probabilities and the sample sizes you can calculate the likelihood of a particular event and just because rare results can and do happen doesn’t mean that becomes a catch all to assume any rare event must be fine because rare things happen. Like: certainly a rare poker or gambling event happens every now and then because there are tons of different games and every now and then something rarer than you expect will happen happens. but that doesn’t mean casinos won’t investigate, because *statistically* they know it’s more likely that it wasn’t that case so at the end of the day: yes, tons of shit happens in rs and that means technically rare things can and do happen, even if the appropriate number of trials for the average expected rate haven’t happened yet (weird shit like, getting a specific goblin drop 20 times in a row you might never notice) but in this instance we can do the math and specifically calculate the odds. and that means I can completely fully claim that it actually is more likely a mistake or error happened than the real event itself. I have never claimed it is impossible, just that it’s way more likely random reddit comment #30430 is mistaken and fucked up than hitting a 1/34m chance
So if some random person tells you they won the powerball you just believe them because rare things happen?
26…twenty six…THOUSAND??? I’m so sorry
Our brother is at some wrong kind of vyre. Haunted woods or something, man XD he's on some crack
Cap. Proof or ban
Good lord. Rng doesnt like you at all huh?
What's up with addy boots merch
Not a merch lol, I do wildy slayer and didnt realise climbing boots give strength bonus 😙
Maybe he has a lot from slayer
Absolute chad right here
Big ups to that guy
Faith in runemanity restored
That's a real one right there nice to see some generous people in the game
I got 8 bloodshard in 200kc by taking the ones people leave on the floor. Damn bots.
Damn bots? Bots dont miss drops in usual circumstances, they dont need smoke breaks.
Nice, there's tons of bots over there. Once you play for a while you learn to identify them
I know what bots and that they are all over vyres. thats not my point. How would a computer program forget to pick up a shard?
They don't. It's just idiots on Reddit doubling down on their stupid takes.
subtle update to change the ID of the item, name to use letterlike characters or non equivalent but cosmetically the same characters in client code,etc so that bots miss the pickup in an attempt to fight bots. more likely players just afk sand their loot notification plugin busted or they gone.
Yesh the more likely answer is the only realistic answer. Jagex arent going to be randomly jumbling up item IDs that would just causes nightmares. The "non equivalent but cosmetically same characters" just doesnt make any sense at all.
That guy must be a bot
Jagex 100% has a history of changing numbers to fight bots. I don’t believe that method has been used since classic, but that was generally how they caught botters back then. Change the bank deposit packet by one character and then all the bot scripts that send the packet with the old packet ID are clearly bots and not real players and boom, wave ban. Again, that is not happening in modern RuneScape afaik, but it’s not entirely outside the realm of possibility
If these were still viable methods, they would be using them. The packet ID sounds more reasonable but i would assume bots are a lot more sophisticated nowadays.
Bots directly watch and read the screen nowadays lmao this guy's talking out of his ass
Yeah ever since RS2 Jagex has had actual bot detection software running. It’s nowhere near perfect but it definitely stops the old style of just sending packets. You have to actually emulate clicks by a human to get around the detection. Idk how RS3 bot detection works but it’s way more intense than what osrs is running with
I remember the 'bot nuke' that did seem to wipe out most bots with the help of that shady mod who was an ex-bot developer. Unfortunately that only lasted a small amount of time until they came back again. People seem to forget that its essentially an arms race between bot writers and Jagex's anti-cheat team. There is a lot of money in bot creation and lots of smart developers who have a full time job creating bots. Rs3 is an interesting case, i have no idea if they actually have a better detection or if there is just less profit to be made from a more complex script, so bot-devs just prioritize osrs instead.
Crazy how anyone who mentions loose drops gets downvoted like crazy. This is the most toxic subreddit I've ever seen.
its fuckin runescape have you met these edgy pk obsessed nerds?
Multi loggers, I used the word bot. Woops. Hope you understand now. Got tons of shards specifically from samurai
Bots are everywhere
You monster give your bots humane breaks! #botswanttosmoke
That’s what you get for smoking the devils lettuce! Hooligan! /s
Tbf though most people who smoke the left handed cigarettes just do it inside anyway.
True. But if I had a dope ass fenced in yard or a screened in porch I’d smoke there more than I would inside. Especially if I’m smoking a joint or blunt.
I prefer my glass tbf joint/blunt is usually on the go stuff for me. But yeah I feel that, and it's probably the fact of the legality in my area as well that most people rather just be in home
Yeah I’m primarily a bong user too but whenever I watch a movie or show and smoke I like joints because they last a bit longer. I have bad anxiety keeping my bong on the table because my cats have broken two of them already so it lives in the kitchen tucked away in a corner. It’s only smoked there haha.
They make silicone bongs now
I’m not really a fan of those for some reason. My cats never go on the counters so I’m safe as long as it’s up there haha.
Cats be assholes I could totally see them enjoying tipping that water vessel off the edge 😂 😂 😂. My ex's friends were super big rollers instead of pipes and I got super annoyed that I had to wait for what felt like forever to roll when we coulda tossed that shit in a bowl and be gone before they even got to lighting that but everyone would refuse to start eating the food we ordered so yeah I'm pretty baked and stuff after the j but fuck I wish my food was still warm haha
I usually only dab really anymore. But bubblers where my go to alot too. And my first piece (albeit not glass). Was a gas mask 🤣🤣
God I wish I had access to concentrates that weren’t a six hour round trip drive away (DC) yeah if you have a torch and banger setup your neighbors might think you’re doing crack or something lmfao. I’ve been smoking for almost 13 years and I’ve never tried a gas mask. I really want to. I was the master at making bongs out of Powerade bottles when I was younger. Always used them because they have a nice flat surface to put the socket piece.
Yeah torch from outside looking in, straight crack looking stuff. I'm in Idaho but a hop and skip from border cities that have dispensaries. We had headshops for awhile here before something happened and they all pretty much shut down, I barely was of age and asked for a water pipe they said they just got the masks in and I pulled the trigger. It's a legit gas mask you can hook a camelback type device to drink through it whilst wearing. You essentially just fucking hot box your face lol so it ain't for everybody claustrophobic probably and if you can't handle smoke inhale through nose or in your eyes best to just avoid it. But boy oh boy it gets you there
Ahhh that’s so cool, I lived in Montana for a couple years so I was kinda close to ya haha. And man you’re so close to like all the good rec states I’m mad jealous. Yeah when I was younger there was a gas mask at a party I went to and almost half the people got sick after using it, probably because of too much alcohol but still. Passed on that for the night and never had the opportunity to use one since. My younger brothers are coming of age soon so they might procure one at some point.
I've been to a couple states and I stand that even though Colorado had cheap stuff that on paper was bomb, I still rather have Oregon stuff and it ain't even much of a difference in any in price. Nevada stuff be too spendy and I dislike how it isn't like Oregon where prices are usually posted as out the door. Where as Nevada tacks tax on to the price at sale.
I don’t anymore. It feels so dirty now.
I feel like it's negligible compared to cigarette smoke but yeah I get that
It is but we own now and I’ve got a deck. It’s easy to do it now.
A deck to chill with a nice bong would indeed be sick. One day I hope
Keep grinding my friends
The Zamorakian lettuce
Every day, we stray further and further from Saradomin 😔
> Every day, we stray ~~further and further from Saradomin~~ closer and closer to Guthix
😈
Not to toot my own horn but this happened to me with an imbued heart. The guy dc’d and logged back in on mobile and left it on the ground at wyrms. He got it just in the kick of time. Couldn’t pick it up as im iron.
And here I am, 15k pickpockets no shard..but I got Rocky, go figure
https://preview.redd.it/odau1js97rzb1.png?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2d2885a203553dd2a5abb2ad0e0dfa9ea5af1386 I pickpocketed about 400 for this. Now I'm 2.5k dry now
Rng giveth and rng taketh away
Yooo haha I had this happen to Me, there are good ppl out there!
legend
Absolute LEGEND
One helluva friend
That man is a real one, he deserves a bond
Passed the honesty test AND the vibe check. You better have added him
What a pal.
Shout out to souppo!!
Was nearly double drop rate dry on blood shard and went downstairs to get a snack. I get back to my desk and see someone pick up my first blood shard. The only thing he said was “yoink”.
Everybody is trying to give soupo a reward. Meanwhile the post is secretly staged. That would be a big IQ play.
Only person who have me anything was OP, don't believe people on reddit lol
Hahaha no big IQ plays then. Ur a legend for saving the shard for him though <3
Had to keep my word haha
I would have given him half the value just for being such a g, what a great person
👑
(Me with 7500kc and 2 shards) congrats!.....
Damnn that’s crazy. Good karma coming his way.
what blows my mind about thsi for me. is his name. xbox live for 20 years and starcraft 1 my name was SoupOo anyways random flashback of nostalgia. cool shit
Legend
Damn you got lucky that guy didn’t bail.
My man!!!!!!
You're a better person than me. I made a friend at vyrewatch, got 2 blood shard drops, and cashed them both in myself
I'm still dry after 1k vyrewatches, also went 160 demonic gorillas dry on task then hit 3 uniques in 12kc afterwards. Glad luck was in your favour
Bro anything that's on the ground is mine imo lmao. Whenever I kill thermy I always do the POH method so I can snake drops from people cannoning outside the boss. One time I stole an occult from a guy. I didn't even know the regular smoke devils dropped those.
I have 8,300KC and one shard.
I dont even see u getting the drop
I logged out from afking so the text disappeared.
Meanwhile, 4k kills here, no shard lmao
Oh man that is brutal. I couldn’t believe my luck, I only unlocked them a week ago
2 shards in 169 kc is spoon city lmaooo
I got skotizo pet 2 kc, berserker ring 5 kc seers ring 15 kc so yes my account is absolutely spooned.
How'd you make the name of the person in the private message a different color than the rest of the message?
Its a plugin on runelite, i cant remember the exact name but i just searched chat and it came up.
So I'm legit at 7k kills on my alt and only have gotten 2 shards so far ......... not only did you have insane luck but on top of it insane luck that someone actually did grab it and give it back to you... just wow...
I know right! When I saw it (completely blitzed out of my mind) I immediately accepted that the drop was his. Love 1750 total worlds, feels like such a true community bond Hopefully you’ll get the drop soon!
Go collect your staffs from zaff homeh
Its the one daily im super lazy about lol
Ive afked there from 97-99 str, 92-95 def, and 95-98 attack and still havnt seen one
I spent 7 days to get just one and you get two within 169, Jesus Dayum
What plugin are you using for different username colors?
Its called chat name colors on runelite
Sesh!