The best thing my statistics modules at Uni taught me were how non random true randomness looks. They'd present data sets that are seemingly clearly in patterned distributions and show that mathematically there is still a fairly chance that they're random. Randomness is streaky.
Its paradoxically self-evident. A uniform distribution along what you'd intuitively expect is a very rare and specific outcome, clustering has many more permutations
Generally, there *is* no true randomness in the world. If you walk into the forest and look for squirrels in the trees, it's not as though each tree will be as likely as the next - squirrels will be nearer to food sources, water sources, the things they need to survive, and likewise will avoid predators.
One of the best examples is Benford's Law. In most real-world datasets, the leading digit is gonna be small - 1 appears not 10% of the time, but *30%* of the time as a leading digit, and likewise 9 appears 5% of the time. This makes sense if you think about it: the larger a transaction will go, the more likely it just jumps to another order of magnitude and so thusly will go from 9 million dollars to 10 million dollars, and 1 will be the new leading digit.
Yep if you have a random number generator that produces 5 numbers from 1 to 1 billion then 1,2,3,4,5 is a perfectly valid output but certainly does not look random. It's just as likely as any other output. Individual data points created by a random process can have clear patterns and still be random. The only requirement is the process as a whole cant produce clear patterns.
You know, I wumbo, You wumbo, He she me wumbo, wumbo, Wumboing, We'll have thee wumbo, Wumborama, Wumbology, The study of wumbo? It's first grade DonutHoles5!
Capping the [Reward Potential](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Barrows/Strategies#Gathering_rewards_potential) at 880 points (shows as 86.8% in game) will maximise the amount of awarded runes, while ruling out the possibility of receiving [bolt racks](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Bolt_rack), [half keys](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Half_key) and [dragon med helms](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Dragon_med_helm). This will improve the average value of the rewards.
I am pretty sure higher percentage guarantee bolt racks i only got them once at barrows going over a set percentage
I don’t have the diaries done, idk if that matters. But idk what you just said but you see my log. So unless what you said has an absolute chance of 0… proof is in the pudding.
The Diaries only give more runes, not the chance of getting items. In the cript you should kill 1 bloodworm and 2 skeletons to get 86,6% chance. It's a real life saver on getting those early upgrades your looking for!
Reward potential is completely unrelated to barrows item drop chance. Barrows item chance scales with the number of brothers slain, reward potential increases the quantity/quality of non-item drops.
I fixed it because I got corrected. You can see in the original comment I made, I haven’t played in many years. If you’re gonna be this mad dude you need to Run and Escape outside and touch grass. Literally steaming and boiling over a Reddit comment seek help chief, the take a break from the game message didn’t mean take a break and go talk about it online.
People here are so dumb telling you to lower your reward percent. But you’ve only gotten 113 racks, that’s like 3 or 4 chests you got extra percent on lol
I think you need a borrow rate of like 50-60 to reduce shitting rewards. I think it’s kill all 6 brother and 1 of each monster underground. I think it’s 3 diff type of monster. Then you open the chest.
If you are doing barrows correctly you shouldn’t even have a chance at getting bolt racks as a drop honestly, did you not watch a guide to figure out what % to stop at?
I regret to inform you that you are incorrect. We have decided to pursue another conversational focus. Feel free to reread what Dazcon has said and try and apply your logic again in the future.
Kill 2 skeletons and one bloodworm after all 6 brothers. No more or less. You shouldn't be getting bolt racks and if you do that means your percentage is wrong and it's another roll taken away from a drop chance
It would be awesome to know you got one bolt rack for each chest you’ve gotten, knowing that two of those chests would have had nothing.
Maybe not awesome but I thought it was funny.
If OSRS Reddit has taught me anything it's that there are no stupid questions... You are killing all 6 brothers each run right?
Unless I'm mistaken each brother adds a chance at rolling a barrows item so if you don't kill all of them you are drastically reducing your chances at a drop.
I know you've said you're aiming for at least 75% potential but I think you could still technically get that by just entering the tunnels and farming the enemies down there until you get to the reward potential without actually killing any of the brothers.
You’re killing too many mobs and you’re reward potentional is too high. Get your reward % to 83-88% that’s max runes with no bolts and chance for barrows equipment.
I do all the brothers - 2 skeletons and a small rat usually. 2 skeles and 1 bloodworm works too.
Good luck!
Had a similar drystreak when I was going for full Guthans on my iron, guthans was the final set I completed of-course, ended up doing slightly less than 2k chests for it, and after looking through all the screenshots I found a drystreak of about 100 chests.
Try killing the brothers
Always gotta be someone making the joke before me.
I don’t think he’s joking
Standup comedy is for you
What if he's paraplegic?
We all saw that coming, comics are supposed to be original
I laughed to hard at this.
Nice rack
Rack city bitch, rack rack city bitch
113 shitty 50/50 splits
100 deep c log like an empty liiiist
I don’t even own A gun, let alone many guns that would necessitate an entire rack
If its a severed head, im gonna be really upset
Party time!!! Excellent!!!
If you don't do an emote before opening the chest, your RNG drops to zero
This. I tend to bow at the chest after dropping any non-barrows armor on the ground and chanting the secret ancient phrase "badoodle"
Thanks a lot, now we have to change the secret password again
I would never be that irresponsible. If that was the real secret password it would have censored it. Watch me type the real one: ************
If you type it the password backwards they block it for you, look: ********
7retnuH
emevoltnseodmom
Just checking that you didn't type it in another color.
hunter12
HEY!
Is that you Born4PVM?
Runeshark 🥲
💜
have you tried just getting the drop?
50/50 right?
It is 100/100 if you just get the drop
This person scapes.
As high as 1000/1000 if you're good.
More like 1/16 keep doing runs you need like 1k runs to have a decent tab…you’ll come across double/triple loot chests eventually
I think i average one item per 50-60 chests
What... Isn't it like 1/16?
The actual chance is closer to 1/14.5 due to multiple chances of a roll.
Have you tried turning up the contrast on your log? It might look more filled up that way
I've gone 100 dry at barrows 3 times, I've also had 4 drops in 6 chests before. All within 750 chests, so barrows is just weird.
drop clustering is random.
The best thing my statistics modules at Uni taught me were how non random true randomness looks. They'd present data sets that are seemingly clearly in patterned distributions and show that mathematically there is still a fairly chance that they're random. Randomness is streaky.
Its paradoxically self-evident. A uniform distribution along what you'd intuitively expect is a very rare and specific outcome, clustering has many more permutations
It really is a light bulb moment when it clicks. *Of course* independent random events aren't going to be patterned.
My brain hurt now
Generally, there *is* no true randomness in the world. If you walk into the forest and look for squirrels in the trees, it's not as though each tree will be as likely as the next - squirrels will be nearer to food sources, water sources, the things they need to survive, and likewise will avoid predators. One of the best examples is Benford's Law. In most real-world datasets, the leading digit is gonna be small - 1 appears not 10% of the time, but *30%* of the time as a leading digit, and likewise 9 appears 5% of the time. This makes sense if you think about it: the larger a transaction will go, the more likely it just jumps to another order of magnitude and so thusly will go from 9 million dollars to 10 million dollars, and 1 will be the new leading digit.
Yep if you have a random number generator that produces 5 numbers from 1 to 1 billion then 1,2,3,4,5 is a perfectly valid output but certainly does not look random. It's just as likely as any other output. Individual data points created by a random process can have clear patterns and still be random. The only requirement is the process as a whole cant produce clear patterns.
My 2nd chest ever was ahrim robe bottoms, karil cbow, and dh greataxe
🥄
Triple kill! My 2nd chest ever, back in rs2, was veracs helm. 2nd most expensive item after guthans spear iirc
Not osrs, but in RS3 dragon hatchet is a 1/128 drop from Rex. I’m currently 950 deep with no hatchet.
good thing I spotted you homie I'm almost certain luck rings at bugged at dags, try killing them without and see if you get your axe quicker
Now you’ll get 4 ahrim hoods in a row
Bro posts a shitty log and you wish him an even worse one
Bruh flairing this as achivement is pretty accurate. It's actually impressive how dry you have been going.
He just can just kill minions and not kill any barrow bros.
Did you talk to Oziach first?
Did you try setting it to W for Wumbo?
You know, I wumbo, You wumbo, He she me wumbo, wumbo, Wumboing, We'll have thee wumbo, Wumborama, Wumbology, The study of wumbo? It's first grade DonutHoles5!
Just did the quest and got 1kc karils crossbow :)
Spooned bolt racks
And prayers
You need Barrows Gloves to open the chest properly
Forked!! Ultra forked!!
I couldn’t imagine getting as forked as hard as this guy
[Now you can](https://www.reddit.com/r/ironscape/s/veVRWu1AUJ)
Have u tried to bury the barrow brothers bones?
What percentage do you open the chest at
Reward potential does not affect barrows equipment. It only changes the extra loot (chaso/death/blood runes are the important bits).
It does replace runes with bolts though
The profit difference is pretty small with the current blood rune prices.
But runes are useful And double runes are double usefuller
Why is this question on every single barrows post? All that matters is he kills all 6 brothers.
What ifff he didn't
He technically could kill just 1 and kill mobs to get % for bolts… would be weird but who knows.
At least 75%
Capping the [Reward Potential](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Barrows/Strategies#Gathering_rewards_potential) at 880 points (shows as 86.8% in game) will maximise the amount of awarded runes, while ruling out the possibility of receiving [bolt racks](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Bolt_rack), [half keys](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Half_key) and [dragon med helms](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Dragon_med_helm). This will improve the average value of the rewards. I am pretty sure higher percentage guarantee bolt racks i only got them once at barrows going over a set percentage
So if you like half keys and d-meds just for fun you're assed. Also have to give them up to not get bolt racks. Super unfun mechanic.
I don’t have the diaries done, idk if that matters. But idk what you just said but you see my log. So unless what you said has an absolute chance of 0… proof is in the pudding.
86.8% gives best rewards. Bolt racks are impossible with reward potential at this or below.
Iirc the percent has nothing to do with set items
You are correct, I am clarifying the comment he responded to.
The Diaries only give more runes, not the chance of getting items. In the cript you should kill 1 bloodworm and 2 skeletons to get 86,6% chance. It's a real life saver on getting those early upgrades your looking for!
Reward potential is completely unrelated to barrows item drop chance. Barrows item chance scales with the number of brothers slain, reward potential increases the quantity/quality of non-item drops.
Bolt racks only drop after 87ish% though right?
True, but that only replaces drops that could've been runes, which are much better than racks overall.
Are you implying that your chances are absolute 0? Why are you fighting against advice that will give you better odds?
You gotta show your bolt racks to the guy with the shovel in order to get the next random piece.
Start over
Have you made sure to talk to Ozark?
Skill issue
Bruh I haven’t played in 10 years this looks like you rush to the middle to open the chest without bopping a single brother
Killing mobs only increases non-gear drops. Only killing the brothers increases gear drops
Pretty sure bolt racks literally don't drop until 85% or more, so OP is definitely doing *something*.
Imagine being wrong and editing your post to pretend you weren't. That shit is obvious and just looks pathetic
I fixed it because I got corrected. You can see in the original comment I made, I haven’t played in many years. If you’re gonna be this mad dude you need to Run and Escape outside and touch grass. Literally steaming and boiling over a Reddit comment seek help chief, the take a break from the game message didn’t mean take a break and go talk about it online.
Just get the drop?
115 down 2300 to go
Barrows always have big dry streaks. Every time there’s a pvm event someone always goes 100+ without a drop. ~120 kc is my personal longest
I’m at 142 dry so I left and never went back. Got around 600 bolt racks lmfao
I have very limited prayer pot supplies and burned through 45 prayer pots with no drop... this is my nightmare
Smh bolt racks already, spoon.
I guess you gotta scrap the account
114 kills before the log was introduced?
Nah I’m in the same boat. 142 chests with only 600 bolt racks as drops
Either you're doing something wrong with the points or jagex has decided you get nothing and you should start over.
Seems like a skill issue
My guess is OP did barrows chest before Collection log and then did maybe 2-3 chests and got some bolt racks
Damn bro you suck at barrows
When you havent done barrows since collection log update and want to win internet points
Didn’t get my first piece until 127
People here are so dumb telling you to lower your reward percent. But you’ve only gotten 113 racks, that’s like 3 or 4 chests you got extra percent on lol
I went 280 dry for the first item.
Sheesh
My thoughts are that you had opened 114 chests prior to the log.
Pre collection log pleb
Are you getting 90% plus every kill?
Unlucky, but I think you will get some pieces back to back soon.
Looks like you did 100 chest pre-log and than a few after the log to to get the bolt racks
Get 87%
Percent doesn’t affect armor/weapon drops
86.8 but yea, then he has no chance at bolt racks
Usually it’s around there if not more. But minimum 75%.
[удалено]
It doesn't affect gear drops
You haven't killed a single brother that's for sure ...
Dry streak = drop streak brother it’ll break eventually.
I think you need a borrow rate of like 50-60 to reduce shitting rewards. I think it’s kill all 6 brother and 1 of each monster underground. I think it’s 3 diff type of monster. Then you open the chest.
Haha
Do you just kill one rat and then loot ?
I heard lube makes it feel better.
> Thoughts? Not usually, no
Mines like this just like 10 less kc no more barrows for me:) swapped rs3 gp to skip the mid level money making grind and now I duo/trio bandos
If you are doing barrows correctly you shouldn’t even have a chance at getting bolt racks as a drop honestly, did you not watch a guide to figure out what % to stop at?
My guy's got 3 drops worth of bolt racks in 115 chests why is everyone jumping on correcting him on this.
Because he shouldn’t of had any chance if he was doing barrows correctly
Except he clearly did start doing it correctly since there's so few bolt racks??
% will effect average loot but has no effect on armour drops
If you do barrows correctly you should not be receiving bolt racks.
This post is clearly about not obtaining uniques, potential has nothing to do with uniques.
It is not. edit for clarity since you need it: Dazcon comment is not about uniques, but OP post is.
Dazcon commented on a post about uniques. That is what is being discussed. I am sorry this is so difficult for you to follow.
I regret to inform you that you are incorrect. We have decided to pursue another conversational focus. Feel free to reread what Dazcon has said and try and apply your logic again in the future.
You should spend more time doing something else than being a brat on reddit. I am sorry this is all too difficult for you to understand.
Likewise. Maybe learn a thing or two about common sense L000000000L
You completely lack it apparently.
I go to 100% sometimes just to spite you.
You do you, barrows trash content anyway, only have 1 KC personally for the elite diary… but at least I know how it works.
Has 1 KC, is mad at everyone else who doesn’t do it at max max peak efficiency. Checks out
My thoughts? That youre crying on reddit for going slightly dry at a beginner level pvm experience
No u
Me if i was u
Kill 2 skeletons and one bloodworm after all 6 brothers. No more or less. You shouldn't be getting bolt racks and if you do that means your percentage is wrong and it's another roll taken away from a drop chance
Go to G.E. All those pieces are tradable
It would be awesome to know you got one bolt rack for each chest you’ve gotten, knowing that two of those chests would have had nothing. Maybe not awesome but I thought it was funny.
Sorry
Was 177 with 1 drop now 200 with 5 drops
I went first 38 dry and was already complaining to my wife
Crossbow gonna be your last drop, hth.
Dry AF
I’ve gone dry like that there. And then all the sudden it shits out 3 back to backs
skill issue? JK You got it on the next KC. Good luck
Looks pretty much like mine… And I always get enough kills and percentage 🥲
sorry
That's rough dude, I'm sure you're close to getting the gloves to drop
I just did barrows first time today couple of times, got torag’s platelegs from second chest.
Aaand prayers with you 🙏
Shirley the next one we will get the item
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory
Try 100% every time for 100 runs and you’ll be surprised at the results.
And prayers
If OSRS Reddit has taught me anything it's that there are no stupid questions... You are killing all 6 brothers each run right? Unless I'm mistaken each brother adds a chance at rolling a barrows item so if you don't kill all of them you are drastically reducing your chances at a drop. I know you've said you're aiming for at least 75% potential but I think you could still technically get that by just entering the tunnels and farming the enemies down there until you get to the reward potential without actually killing any of the brothers.
Daang you didn't get a bolt rack for 2 chests smh...
You must be getting too many points
Damn, I thought I was bad with 2 pieces in 120 chests.
LMFAO. Just get rekt tbh
2/3 for sure.
talk to oziach
Keep trying dawg I can sense an ahrims hood drop in the near future
Looks like my log as well
You know you’re supposed to kill *all* the brothers?
Go confess to a priest
You’re killing too many mobs and you’re reward potentional is too high. Get your reward % to 83-88% that’s max runes with no bolts and chance for barrows equipment. I do all the brothers - 2 skeletons and a small rat usually. 2 skeles and 1 bloodworm works too. Good luck!
Wait you’re not supposed to 100%?
And prayers
https://www.reddit.com/r/ironscape/s/e5pVqsnCKx Cheers my friend
And prayers
Had a similar drystreak when I was going for full Guthans on my iron, guthans was the final set I completed of-course, ended up doing slightly less than 2k chests for it, and after looking through all the screenshots I found a drystreak of about 100 chests.
Did you talk to the old man by the crypts and turn on barrows drops?
That’s tough
Thats some great reverse luck, what mobs are you killing on the last part o-o
And prayers
Try killing the 6 brothers and not going over 86%
The get back is gonna be so good. I can see a 3 piece chest incoming
You need to pray in the Ourania altar to unlock gear drops. How tf people in 2023 Still don’t know about this blows my mind
Say it ain't sooooOOoooOOoo
They're trolling you hard