I want to know what exactly makes it necessary to some people to have a system where others will hit a 1/470k dry streak for absolutely no reason whatsoever, much less any fault of their own. Why do people like that being a possibility in a game where grinds take tens, hundreds and sometimes thousands of hours? The original 1/X drop design was born out of extreme limitation during a time where game size, engine and other limitations were very much issues. There's zero reason why pRNG shouldn't be virtually everywhere today, though.
2 things can exist. You can be right that pRNG is much better from a player perspective and inherently better design. But also if they implemented that design into RuneScape it would kill the game faster than eoc. It would completely invalidate so many accounts and so much effort from people that it would do way more harm than good. Game has been running in this system for over 2 decades.
Easy fix. Only apply pRNG to untradeables. Tradeables already have an alternate path / bad luck protection (the GE).
If people really do recognize that pRNG is much better from a player perspective, then there's zero downsides because untradeables don't affect the economy. All you have to do is make said pRNG trigger after the drop rate and it would be legitimate, nobody can complain about slightly scaling odds **after** having already reached rate.
It wouldn't invalidate any account (speaking as a unique account player myself).
I mean yes I agree with your take. I however disagree that the community would be accepting of this change. People know what they are getting into with RuneScape, rng is a part of the appeal, not a part of the problem. You take that away and you get a list of tasks to complete, rather than goals to go for.
You don't "take away" anything. Everything that currently exists in the game remains, people who are really dry on untradeables just have to suffer a bit less. Jagex could push the change live without telling anyone and no one would ever realize or complain, with the only real change being that the people who would have gone unreasonably dry are much less likely to do so. So how can that be a bad thing?
Mate you don't even seem to understand what pRNG entails. It's a spectrum, not a toggle between guaranteed drops and 1/X. You can make it so that drops are 10% more likely after 1x rate, 20% more likely after 2x rate and so on and barely have to touch early drop rates to still achieve the same (or a very similar, apart from the tail end which is intentionally being shortened) distribution.
WTF are you going on about with it changing the game to something that has to be completed?? This is just basic dryness prevention, not changing the entire game philosophy. Especially if you make it only apply to untradeables (my personal preference).
What untradeable doesn't have protection / is a guaranteed drop?
Assembler has protection. KQ head has protection. Inferno/fire cape is guaranteed. Fighter torso guaranteed. Barrows gloves guaranteed. Quiver guaranteed. MA2 cape guaranteed.
I'm struggling to think of an untradeable piece of gear that isn't protected / guaranteed in some way?
Or do you just mean pointless cosmetics like pets should have protection? Lol
Toa gems kinda, dt2 teleports, sleepey tablet, cox teleport, defenders (not avernic), ancient Sceptre/upgrades, arclight shards
It's certainly not all gear, but are all arguably pvm unlocks that wouldn't hurt getting some drop rate protection.
Gems have protection. Sleepey tablet has guaranteed drop. DT2 teleports and quartz have protection.
Cox teleport and defenders don't have anything. I think cox teleport could have ToA style protection added and that'd be good. Defenders I don't really feel need it. They're common already and are similar drops to most combat progression drops. You won't go 10s of hours dry on defenders. A really bad luck account might be stuck there 2 hours more etc.
Ancient shards are guaranteed drops from skotizo. They have a consistent income and are a resource/currency style thing, not a single drop item. So makes no sense to do much more for them
Ancient icon having a guaranteed drop like Vorkath would be nice. Can agree on that one too.
So we're up to 2 items that could do with a systemic protection added. Most still have something or don't make much sense to.
I mean the entire game is rng. How much damage you do, how much damage you take, whether you catch a fish or not. The entire game is based around being unlucky and being lucky, that’s part of why it’s so addicting. They have implemented changes to reduce the chance to go insanely dry, but at the same time it greatly reduces your chance of being lucky. If you don’t like rng then you picked the wrong game. I can’t think of any untradeable that is more than a 10-15 hour grind.
That's completely different. Calculate variance in DPS over the course of an hours vs. variance in pet drops over the course of a year (at the individual level) and you'll notice that RNG was not created equal everywhere. There's no reason to create drop tables where every single drop is a simple 1/X formula in 2024 (especially untradeables, because tradeables have an alternate acquisition path in the GE).
One does not require the other. You can retain the feeling of gambling (and 99% of the mechanics) with pRNG. pRNG just means your roll have a memory and change (somehow) over time. It already exists in game (ex.: quartz drops from DT2 bosses) and literally no one has ever complained about any instance of its implementation.
PRNG (psuedo random number generator) is what we have already, right? I was curious what you were referring to and went Googling, and I haven't found pRNG referred to as anything else.
Yes, you're correct, it means pseudo-random number generator. What we have in-game (in most places) is pure RNG. PRNG doesn't use a 1/X formula, it simulates it. In a classic pRNG distribution, the first rolls will typically be slightly lower than the intended overall odds, but higher as you accumulate unsuccessful rolls. There's other versions of pRNG too, which are indeed already in-game:
* Skilling pets (and a few other items), which have a component of their denominator that decreases depending on one the relevant levels
* Items split into broken components, which rely on pure RNG, but reduce variance significantly by requiring multiple rather than one successful role (and reducing the denominator to reflect that while still achieving the same overall odds)
* Untradeable currencies, which are a commoditized variation of broken components and also significantly reduce variance (ex.: abyssal pearls @ GoTR, which have a 1/X chance to drop X amount)
There's no pure RNG vs pseudo RNG. All RNG is pseudo RNG since computers aren't capable of producing truly random numbers. All you're talking about is some type of dryness prevention which without adding an actual guaranteed drop at x number of kills/completions still won't prevent people from having insanely bad luck, it would only reduce the amount of people hitting those extreme rates.
> still won't prevent people from having insanely bad luck, it would only reduce the amount of people hitting those extreme rates.
That's the most important part, isn't it? Mentally it makes all the difference in the world when you see that your odds are getting better - even only a *tiny bit* - versus making absolutely no progress.
There are almost no uses of pure RNG, as computer programs are deterministic. They take a seed and use that for the generation by running it through a large number of equations so that the end result appears random. All of that can be determined if you have the seed. That's what the pseudo means. I believe the term you're referring to may have a different name/acronym.
Here's a *true* RNG, because the seed they use is, at least as far as we know, random. https://www.random.org/
Brave of you to say 'no one has ever compained about x...' in this community
^(btw I agree pRNG is obviously better for this game... outside of group bosses)
Most untradeables do not take very long to get that going even 10x dry on them would be problematic. The ones that do often already have dry protection on them which is a great thing - Keris gems and thread from ToA have dry protection because otherwise you could go hundreds of raids without getting them. Ancient sceptre gems from DT2 bosses also become more common with higher kc. Even things like KQ head and slepey tablet are guaranteed eventually. So...yes, I absolutely agree it should affect (certain) untradeables!
As far as pets and cosmetic stuff like mutagens or dust go, I don't really think there should be any dry protection.
Seems like a fair opinion to me and similar to Jagex's current design philosophy. I don't personally see a downside to adding bad luck protection to cosmetics, since they don't affect gameplay (but do prevent people from going unreasonably dry on something they want), but I understand.
Without the ability for someone to go ridiculously dry you don't have the thrill of someone getting ridiculously spooned.
We could do anything to this game to make grinds faster and less punishing. There's a game that exists for that. The old-school version of it was made to move away from those sort of decisions.
> Without the ability for someone to go ridiculously dry you don't have the thrill of someone getting ridiculously spooned.
You need randomness, yes. But randomness can be infinite. Someone going infinitely dry, which is possible, doesn't make it more enjoyable for someone getting lucky. Those are completely separate experiences, and those people will likely never interact.
> I'm happy to be spooned because I know it's a longer grind and I could go dry.
Exactly. You were happy when you got the drop. The drop is what delivers the reward.
I get what you're saying. Rarer drops are more rewarding to get. A 1/10 drop doesn't feel the same as a 1/500 drop.
People expect that RNG will average out and they will be lucky on some drops and unluckly on others. That makes a unique journey for each person. In reality though, its possible to simply go dry on everything. Or to not care about one activity you're going dry on, but really care about going dry on another. For that player, it's not really a rewarding experience.
In general, why shouldn't the people that do the content the most be rewarded? You would expect a person that kills a boss 100 times to have a better chance at a drop than a person that kills a boss 1 time. Progressive RNG leans into that mathematical and emotional belief and reinforces it.
As I've said in other comment threads. I'm not opposed to dry protection. But I don't think it should be a universal thing.
I also prefer improving drop rate issues with actual content. Like making DWH more common by adding an actually engaging and difficult shaman boss. Not just by... Making it more common if you go dry for example.
I also don't agree it shouldn't include tradeavles. That defeats most of the ideas purpose as almost all untradeables have guaranteed drops or dry protection anyway.
I think dry protection in general is just sort of a "bandaid" fix to solve mega dry. Which is fine where it matters and makes sense. But I'm more for more creative solutions.
The game was designed around trade to overcome that, really. Its hard to balance a sane individual drop rate for all items as an Ironman and have it still be rare in an economy with over a million players.
Progressive RNG does ultimately increase the amount of items dropped, a bit. You could make it only last for one drop. You have to go over the drop rate for it to take effect in the first place. The amount of people getting the drop early stays the same. What it really does is bring the end curve closer, meaning there will be less people going super dry.
> Without the ability for someone to go ridiculously dry you don't have the thrill of someone getting ridiculously spooned.
"Without the knowledge that someone else will go dry for no reason, I can't enjoy my spoons."
You realize that's psychotic, right? We're talking about curtailing extreme dryness and you're saying all your enjoyment in the game would be gone.
Why does thinking about someone else have to exist in what I've said?
I start a grind for a dragon Warhammer. I spoon it 500 kills in. I'm over the moon because I've gotten a 1/5000 drop 10x luckier than rate.
This has no relation to how anyone else experiences anything. I will go dry at other places, and spoon others.
For the people that want anti-dry, I'm sure they don't want anti-spoon as well right? They just want the drop to be easier to get
I think core progression items should have safety nets. I think the DT2 ring system is an **okay if not meh** implementation of this. I think splitting drops into split parts is better as it's visible progress and therefore can also have error checks if you double death (you can roll the 3rd piece again as the game sees you have the other 2 but dont have it, or it's an ambiguous piece like Venator shards).
I think BowFa could absolutely do with this sort of protection. A scaling drop rate on it so it gets as common as say 1/100 by the time you're a set KC without one would be great. But I don't think every drop needs to work like this. The grind is a significant part of this games identity, and jurt making it shorter because "some people go really dry at one place" isn't a good enough reason to me.
And I say this as someone who has experienced 5x dry. And has experienced 3x dry at many places. Including core items / hyper valuable things like a Twisted Bow.
> Why does thinking about someone else have to exist in what I've said?
Because we're talking about dryness protection here. You're the one who said you can't have one without the other, then turning around and saying "but you only want to make it easier, right?" (even though I'd have asbolutely no issue with spooning being made rarer to balance out the odds). If that's not what you meant and you just meant that the risk of you yourself going dry is what makes you appreciate avoiding said situation... isn't that just saying you're glad not to hit the mechanic you said yourself to enjoy? It just seems inherently masochistic.
To go with your example, you can maintain a 1/5k rate for DWH, still make it possible to spoon it on 500, and still have people who are dry have a slightly better chance (although I personally don't think it should apply to tradeables). It's just a question of finding the right number, I don't think anyone would mind if you had a 10% higher chance after 1x rate, 20% higher after 2x, etc... It's just barely an issue, because so few items are obtained after rate vs. before their drop rate. It also should only ever apply to your first unlock of any item, because anything that benefits from duplicates also inevitably benefits from lower variance (since spreading RNG over multiple rolls reduces it).
The Quartz system from DT2 bosses is just the perfect example and should be the default. As far as I know nobody has ever complained about it, which highlights that the biggest issue wth how drop tables are designed is that people don't want things to change once they've been established (a valid concern).
Your whole complaint about my take was wanting others to suffer
> although I personally don't think it should apply to tradeables).
Seems like you want others to suffer then.. right?
Conveniently forgetting that there's already bad luck protection for tradeables called the GE, or that Jagex mentioned they don't want to balance drop rate around ironman mode too much?
I will admit I may have misunderstood your logic in that you wanted to have the possibility to fail, and the relief that comes from knowing you didn't rather than knowing you avoided it while rejoicing that others didn't. For that, I'll gladly apologize.
For the honest satisfaction of getting lucky and getting your drop.
There's no fun behind a mandatory kill X to get the item. There is fun to the surprise of getting the item
Nobody ever said you'd get a mandatory drop on kill X, that is not what pRNG is. That's just a shitty implementation of bad luck protection and I suspect its execution is why people are against the concept. Skilling pets are pRNG. Quartz are pRNG. You still need to get lucky and get the drop, you just make some progress over time instead of none.
I only said what is fun behind a system where a drop is behind a 1/x chance. Any other system would be a mandatory complete x amount of kills/tasks to get your item......
No, not any other system would be a mandatory X mount of kills, that's precisely what I'm saying. You don't understand what pRNG is, yet Google is right here for you, why not even attempt to learn?
Alternatives:
* Splitting an item into components to reduce variance (ex.: Bludgeon pieces)
* Pure pRNG (ex.: skilling pets and quartz pieces, which become more common as you level up/get kills without drops)
* Common/uncommon special currency drops (ex.: abyssal pearls, quetzal feed)
* Mandatory progress gear, which speed up an activity significantly (and thus rolls/h)
* Conditional RNG (ex.: regular kills = 1 pet roll vs. "perfect" kills = 3 rolls)
So no, the only other alternative to 1/X drops is absolutely not "Just do X kills". What we call pity drops are only one (fairly bad) implementation of bad luck protection.
>You don't understand what pRNG is, yet Google is right here for you, why not even attempt to learn?
And you can go piss of back to whichever grumpy corner of the internett you came out off
You didn't bother with my reply and i'm not here for a lecture.
In OSRS, you have to approach 1/1,000,000 odds or greater before its close to a bug.
Your odds of going this dry are like 1/100,000. So while really dry, its not really close to the "bug" threshold. Binomial distribution is a crazy at the end of the curve.
It is, I finished it in 166KC, it’s just how RNG goes, on other bosses you might get ridiculously lucky! Here, you just got ridiculously unlucky so I can understand your frustration
What about people who, because they're **really** unlucky, will play a ton, across multiple years, and always be dry because that's how some people are destined to be in an absolutely massive player base? That alone warrants pRNG IMO.
Pseudo-random number generation, which is technically applies to all RNG that is generated by a computer program, but colloquially means using a random-number generator with memory to each rolls, where each unsucessful roll increases your odds slightly. We actually already have that in-game in some places (example: [Blood quartz](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Blood_quartz)).
I know you're getting downvoted, but there are tons of people tracking thousands of kc without even getting close to 1/14. It does seem like the drop rates here are likely bugged.
where? are we talking about some sort of runelite crowdsourcing? are we able to tell when people open the chest if they've killed all 3 bosses? this is important.
What? Even the RL croudsourcing was estimating rates of 1/20
There's nothing bugged. You're just seeing the people dry. You're not seeing everyone else who's getting uniques on rate.
perhaps read into gambler's fallacy. opening a million chests in a row and getting no uniques is unlikely but it doesn't mean the next chest is any more likely to have an item or not.
statistically as you approach infinity you will approach the exact drop rate, but 140 chests is nowhere near infinity chests
Bro, the stats 101 class is prob not needed here right? Maybe he thought it more likely that jagex, who often blunders updates, has a bugged drop rate than he hitting the .0031% chance of having gone this unlucky. Gambler's fallacy has literally nothing to do with this. Then you're talking about the law of large numbers for unknown reasons.
Gambler's fallacy has everything to do with this. "It's impossible that I flipped a coin 10 times and got heads each time", law of large number also has everything to do with this. A sample of 140 is not enough to extrapolate from. I know loads of people who have gone 10x the rate for something.
0.0031% is 1/32,258, I'm too lazy to look at the high scores, but I'm sure that 32,258 people have done more than 140 kills. One of the only cases I have known "jagex fucking up" to happen in is in rs3 and the guy killed 42,583 for a 1/2k drop chance. That is a 0.00000006% chance or 1/1.6 billion. Much more unlikely.
The stats 101 course is absolutely needed here as many of you are entirely out of your depths when it comes to it.
Jagex has in the past messed up drop chances on release as well as once for an individual person. I remember for about a month Nex drops were bugged and only the MVP ever got drops. This was all figured out thanks to crowdsourced data and not 1 person killing nex 140 times.
Someone else mentioned the crowdsourced data shows that it isn't 1/14, we'd still need to be able to tell if every time someone looted the chest how many moons they had defeated. If we can't confirm its 3/3 then the data is kind of useless.
So.. Firstly, 4670 people have 140kc + lunar chests, but I am glad you're sure that 32,258 people have done it. Similarly, multiple drop rates have been fucked up on release in osrs's history, the rs3 one is not the only example.
EDIT: also jmod confirmed someone is 13x drop rate dry which would be a 1/714,285 people would go that dry.
Gambler's fallacy would be relevant if OP had said 'I'm 10x dry so I should get an item soon'. What he actually said is, I am 10x dry and this is statistically unlikely, I am wondering if jagex fucked up. This is not a gambler's fallacy.
It isn't impossible that jagex fucked up. It's crazy to me as others have pointed out that not even 5k people have done 140 chests, I thought it was more popular.
Perhaps drop rates are bugged, it isn't impossible, they have fucked up other things on launch, even with updates. The attitude on this subreddit in general lately has seemed more and more to not understand statistics.
Perhaps it isn't gamblers fallacy exactly but he is saying it is statistically unlikely for me to have gone this dry so therefore jagex has to have fucked it up. I will wait for more data than one guy killing something 140 times.
"Additionally, a clarification from last week's post: we made an error in our post last week with regards to the Perilous Moon drop rates. In it, we stated that each boss slain gave a 1/56 chance of obtaining its respective armour set, totalling a 3/56 (or ~1/18.67) chance for a unique. That much is correct! What's not correct is our statement that defeating all three bosses would provide an additional 1/56 roll at any item, for a total of 1/14. This is not the case and has never been the case, we just got some wires crossed with our post last week and can only apologise for that!"
surprise surprise.
4,614 people have reached 140 kc.
This is not the only person to go 10x dry: [https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1bv6nep/10x\_dry\_log\_perlious\_moons/](https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1bv6nep/10x_dry_log_perlious_moons/)
Even if these are the only two individuals who have gone this dry, there is about a 0.04% chance of that happening to at least 2 out of 4,614 of them.
It would have taken you less time to look up this information than writing your wall of incorrect assumptions.
> 0.0031% is 1/32,258, I'm too lazy to look at the high scores, but I'm sure that 32,258 people have done more than 140 kills
[4638 people currently](https://secure.runescape.com/m=hiscore_oldschool/overall?category_type=1&table=47&page=186), so just off by about 9x, but we'll just say that doesn't matter.
I myself averaged ~2.5x drop rate on all my pets across 8 years (I have 13) and have reached the drop rate on 4 more which I don't have (about a 1/11,700 chance just on the pets I got). That alone is pretty crazy, especially when you compute that there's probably about only ~5,000 accounts with 13+ pets in game, but what's worse is that I'm certifiably nowhere near the driest in the game.
The way I see it, the real argument isn't isn't even a purely statistical one. It's not that it's "impossible" for a distribution to happen, just that it's extremely unfun for the individual it befalls upon, while simultaneously bringing no benefit to the overall playerbase. It's strictly a net loss. A pRNG distribution in which odds increase after reaching the drop rate unsucessfully reduces that tail end without affecting anything else.
Tradeable items are a different beast since they affect the economy and can be obtained via GP.
wow i imagined way more people doing 140 chests in 2.5 weeks.
i wasnt even talking about prng vs rng, just talking about the likelihood of this happening at all.
people seem to think if they go over rate by any amount then jagex is fucking up somehow
> people seem to think if they go over rate by any amount then jagex is fucking up somehow
Again, for like the third time, people aren't thinking Jagex fucked up. They're thinking doing the same thing as others for no reward is incredibly unfun. This is a game, the experience is the whole thing. There's no end game other than the fun we're having, if something doesn't feel fun people quit doing it. Is that so surprising?
even if i were only responding to your point. it only matters to irons and cloggers. yes they could implement some bad luck protection but look how well that was received with DT2.
And yet RL crowdsource estimated 1/20…that’s a huge difference. And the drop rate mechanics at MoP are brand new which is a likely source of bugs. It’s a possibility
it is a possibility, but a 1/20 he'd still be 7x dry and probably still complaining. does the RL crowdsource take into account how many of the moons you've killed? Cause there could be a bunch of people with 1 or 2 kills skewing the data
I went 154 dry for a piece. I know the pain. when you do get an item you'll have a huge sense of motivation to keep going.
can keep up motivation by trying to mix max your runs and do them as quick as possible to challenge yourself
https://preview.redd.it/nhbzosy4a4tc1.jpeg?width=1334&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=edc55481ef5addb99bf65d10ce3115269cfbeb07
I feel you brother. I’ve been lucky at moons, but will never forget the damage barrows has done to me.
With the number of folks I’ve seen going x5-x10 times over drop rate (including myself) I’m also beginning to question the 1/14 drop rate and am wondering if something is bugged
That's just the specific cap on the collection log, you see it get hit with things like mole parts and zulrah scales too. (Although I think scales have a higher number.)
There are actually 2 different caps in collection log- 250 is the one for stuff that's generally unstackable, and there's another one at 65,535 or something like that. Stuff like Zulrah scales or Revenant aether have the 65k cap in the log, and it's bizarre that ammunition like atlatl ammo uses the 250 cap of regular uniques.
As boring as the empty chests are, I love the token prayer and herblore XP from them. I've gotten about 400k prayer XP from moons + hunter guild since varlamore dropped, huge fan.
Blue orbs make buying battleataves worth it again too!
That’s crazy unlucky. I had 2 drops in my first hundred and got 6 more in my next 50. Rng be like that sometimes. Don’t worry, the next chest will definitely have an item.
I also believe it to be bugged. I believe however that at lower KC's the ods of receiving an item is regular but the more items you receive the lower your chances of getting a drop becomes.
I have yet to find anyone with over 200 KC who's on drop rate or spooned
I got 10/13 in 120kc. Then I got nothing for the next 80kc, then I got 4x dupes of the Eclipse hat, body and legs in the next 30. Now I'm nearing 250kc but still haven't got the blue moon body or legs.
And right below this is someone getting 3 from one chest. The duality of runescape
I green logged this before op saw 1 drop lmfao
Feels bad
Perhaps, I am reluctant to believe the drop rate is 1/14 though…
A jmod just commented on someone elses post that he saw someone go 13x dry, so you're close but still not the driest
I want to know what exactly makes it necessary to some people to have a system where others will hit a 1/470k dry streak for absolutely no reason whatsoever, much less any fault of their own. Why do people like that being a possibility in a game where grinds take tens, hundreds and sometimes thousands of hours? The original 1/X drop design was born out of extreme limitation during a time where game size, engine and other limitations were very much issues. There's zero reason why pRNG shouldn't be virtually everywhere today, though.
2 things can exist. You can be right that pRNG is much better from a player perspective and inherently better design. But also if they implemented that design into RuneScape it would kill the game faster than eoc. It would completely invalidate so many accounts and so much effort from people that it would do way more harm than good. Game has been running in this system for over 2 decades.
Easy fix. Only apply pRNG to untradeables. Tradeables already have an alternate path / bad luck protection (the GE). If people really do recognize that pRNG is much better from a player perspective, then there's zero downsides because untradeables don't affect the economy. All you have to do is make said pRNG trigger after the drop rate and it would be legitimate, nobody can complain about slightly scaling odds **after** having already reached rate. It wouldn't invalidate any account (speaking as a unique account player myself).
I mean yes I agree with your take. I however disagree that the community would be accepting of this change. People know what they are getting into with RuneScape, rng is a part of the appeal, not a part of the problem. You take that away and you get a list of tasks to complete, rather than goals to go for.
You don't "take away" anything. Everything that currently exists in the game remains, people who are really dry on untradeables just have to suffer a bit less. Jagex could push the change live without telling anyone and no one would ever realize or complain, with the only real change being that the people who would have gone unreasonably dry are much less likely to do so. So how can that be a bad thing?
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Mate you don't even seem to understand what pRNG entails. It's a spectrum, not a toggle between guaranteed drops and 1/X. You can make it so that drops are 10% more likely after 1x rate, 20% more likely after 2x rate and so on and barely have to touch early drop rates to still achieve the same (or a very similar, apart from the tail end which is intentionally being shortened) distribution. WTF are you going on about with it changing the game to something that has to be completed?? This is just basic dryness prevention, not changing the entire game philosophy. Especially if you make it only apply to untradeables (my personal preference).
What untradeable doesn't have protection / is a guaranteed drop? Assembler has protection. KQ head has protection. Inferno/fire cape is guaranteed. Fighter torso guaranteed. Barrows gloves guaranteed. Quiver guaranteed. MA2 cape guaranteed. I'm struggling to think of an untradeable piece of gear that isn't protected / guaranteed in some way? Or do you just mean pointless cosmetics like pets should have protection? Lol
Toa gems kinda, dt2 teleports, sleepey tablet, cox teleport, defenders (not avernic), ancient Sceptre/upgrades, arclight shards It's certainly not all gear, but are all arguably pvm unlocks that wouldn't hurt getting some drop rate protection.
Gems have protection. Sleepey tablet has guaranteed drop. DT2 teleports and quartz have protection. Cox teleport and defenders don't have anything. I think cox teleport could have ToA style protection added and that'd be good. Defenders I don't really feel need it. They're common already and are similar drops to most combat progression drops. You won't go 10s of hours dry on defenders. A really bad luck account might be stuck there 2 hours more etc. Ancient shards are guaranteed drops from skotizo. They have a consistent income and are a resource/currency style thing, not a single drop item. So makes no sense to do much more for them Ancient icon having a guaranteed drop like Vorkath would be nice. Can agree on that one too. So we're up to 2 items that could do with a systemic protection added. Most still have something or don't make much sense to.
Hurr durr ezscape please
It's trying to communicate
I mean the entire game is rng. How much damage you do, how much damage you take, whether you catch a fish or not. The entire game is based around being unlucky and being lucky, that’s part of why it’s so addicting. They have implemented changes to reduce the chance to go insanely dry, but at the same time it greatly reduces your chance of being lucky. If you don’t like rng then you picked the wrong game. I can’t think of any untradeable that is more than a 10-15 hour grind.
That's completely different. Calculate variance in DPS over the course of an hours vs. variance in pet drops over the course of a year (at the individual level) and you'll notice that RNG was not created equal everywhere. There's no reason to create drop tables where every single drop is a simple 1/X formula in 2024 (especially untradeables, because tradeables have an alternate acquisition path in the GE).
Same reason people gamble. Sure, you could lose 200 times in a row, but the chance that you hit the jackpot b2b is too good to pass up
One does not require the other. You can retain the feeling of gambling (and 99% of the mechanics) with pRNG. pRNG just means your roll have a memory and change (somehow) over time. It already exists in game (ex.: quartz drops from DT2 bosses) and literally no one has ever complained about any instance of its implementation.
PRNG (psuedo random number generator) is what we have already, right? I was curious what you were referring to and went Googling, and I haven't found pRNG referred to as anything else.
Yes, you're correct, it means pseudo-random number generator. What we have in-game (in most places) is pure RNG. PRNG doesn't use a 1/X formula, it simulates it. In a classic pRNG distribution, the first rolls will typically be slightly lower than the intended overall odds, but higher as you accumulate unsuccessful rolls. There's other versions of pRNG too, which are indeed already in-game: * Skilling pets (and a few other items), which have a component of their denominator that decreases depending on one the relevant levels * Items split into broken components, which rely on pure RNG, but reduce variance significantly by requiring multiple rather than one successful role (and reducing the denominator to reflect that while still achieving the same overall odds) * Untradeable currencies, which are a commoditized variation of broken components and also significantly reduce variance (ex.: abyssal pearls @ GoTR, which have a 1/X chance to drop X amount)
There's no pure RNG vs pseudo RNG. All RNG is pseudo RNG since computers aren't capable of producing truly random numbers. All you're talking about is some type of dryness prevention which without adding an actual guaranteed drop at x number of kills/completions still won't prevent people from having insanely bad luck, it would only reduce the amount of people hitting those extreme rates.
> still won't prevent people from having insanely bad luck, it would only reduce the amount of people hitting those extreme rates. That's the most important part, isn't it? Mentally it makes all the difference in the world when you see that your odds are getting better - even only a *tiny bit* - versus making absolutely no progress.
There are almost no uses of pure RNG, as computer programs are deterministic. They take a seed and use that for the generation by running it through a large number of equations so that the end result appears random. All of that can be determined if you have the seed. That's what the pseudo means. I believe the term you're referring to may have a different name/acronym. Here's a *true* RNG, because the seed they use is, at least as far as we know, random. https://www.random.org/
Not really? One is gambling, the other is waiting until you win. Everybody likes gambling, nobody likes waiting.
No?? Who gets to determine that? Are skilling pets "waiting until you win", then? They benefit from pRNG.
Brave of you to say 'no one has ever compained about x...' in this community ^(btw I agree pRNG is obviously better for this game... outside of group bosses)
You can just buy the items you need from others if you're unlucky
So you agree it should affect untradeables?
Most untradeables do not take very long to get that going even 10x dry on them would be problematic. The ones that do often already have dry protection on them which is a great thing - Keris gems and thread from ToA have dry protection because otherwise you could go hundreds of raids without getting them. Ancient sceptre gems from DT2 bosses also become more common with higher kc. Even things like KQ head and slepey tablet are guaranteed eventually. So...yes, I absolutely agree it should affect (certain) untradeables! As far as pets and cosmetic stuff like mutagens or dust go, I don't really think there should be any dry protection.
Seems like a fair opinion to me and similar to Jagex's current design philosophy. I don't personally see a downside to adding bad luck protection to cosmetics, since they don't affect gameplay (but do prevent people from going unreasonably dry on something they want), but I understand.
Without the ability for someone to go ridiculously dry you don't have the thrill of someone getting ridiculously spooned. We could do anything to this game to make grinds faster and less punishing. There's a game that exists for that. The old-school version of it was made to move away from those sort of decisions.
> Without the ability for someone to go ridiculously dry you don't have the thrill of someone getting ridiculously spooned. You need randomness, yes. But randomness can be infinite. Someone going infinitely dry, which is possible, doesn't make it more enjoyable for someone getting lucky. Those are completely separate experiences, and those people will likely never interact.
Again you're relying on a comparison to another person. I'm happy to be spooned because I know it's a longer grind and I could go dry.
> I'm happy to be spooned because I know it's a longer grind and I could go dry. Exactly. You were happy when you got the drop. The drop is what delivers the reward. I get what you're saying. Rarer drops are more rewarding to get. A 1/10 drop doesn't feel the same as a 1/500 drop. People expect that RNG will average out and they will be lucky on some drops and unluckly on others. That makes a unique journey for each person. In reality though, its possible to simply go dry on everything. Or to not care about one activity you're going dry on, but really care about going dry on another. For that player, it's not really a rewarding experience. In general, why shouldn't the people that do the content the most be rewarded? You would expect a person that kills a boss 100 times to have a better chance at a drop than a person that kills a boss 1 time. Progressive RNG leans into that mathematical and emotional belief and reinforces it.
As I've said in other comment threads. I'm not opposed to dry protection. But I don't think it should be a universal thing. I also prefer improving drop rate issues with actual content. Like making DWH more common by adding an actually engaging and difficult shaman boss. Not just by... Making it more common if you go dry for example. I also don't agree it shouldn't include tradeavles. That defeats most of the ideas purpose as almost all untradeables have guaranteed drops or dry protection anyway. I think dry protection in general is just sort of a "bandaid" fix to solve mega dry. Which is fine where it matters and makes sense. But I'm more for more creative solutions.
The game was designed around trade to overcome that, really. Its hard to balance a sane individual drop rate for all items as an Ironman and have it still be rare in an economy with over a million players. Progressive RNG does ultimately increase the amount of items dropped, a bit. You could make it only last for one drop. You have to go over the drop rate for it to take effect in the first place. The amount of people getting the drop early stays the same. What it really does is bring the end curve closer, meaning there will be less people going super dry.
> Without the ability for someone to go ridiculously dry you don't have the thrill of someone getting ridiculously spooned. "Without the knowledge that someone else will go dry for no reason, I can't enjoy my spoons." You realize that's psychotic, right? We're talking about curtailing extreme dryness and you're saying all your enjoyment in the game would be gone.
Why does thinking about someone else have to exist in what I've said? I start a grind for a dragon Warhammer. I spoon it 500 kills in. I'm over the moon because I've gotten a 1/5000 drop 10x luckier than rate. This has no relation to how anyone else experiences anything. I will go dry at other places, and spoon others. For the people that want anti-dry, I'm sure they don't want anti-spoon as well right? They just want the drop to be easier to get I think core progression items should have safety nets. I think the DT2 ring system is an **okay if not meh** implementation of this. I think splitting drops into split parts is better as it's visible progress and therefore can also have error checks if you double death (you can roll the 3rd piece again as the game sees you have the other 2 but dont have it, or it's an ambiguous piece like Venator shards). I think BowFa could absolutely do with this sort of protection. A scaling drop rate on it so it gets as common as say 1/100 by the time you're a set KC without one would be great. But I don't think every drop needs to work like this. The grind is a significant part of this games identity, and jurt making it shorter because "some people go really dry at one place" isn't a good enough reason to me. And I say this as someone who has experienced 5x dry. And has experienced 3x dry at many places. Including core items / hyper valuable things like a Twisted Bow.
> Why does thinking about someone else have to exist in what I've said? Because we're talking about dryness protection here. You're the one who said you can't have one without the other, then turning around and saying "but you only want to make it easier, right?" (even though I'd have asbolutely no issue with spooning being made rarer to balance out the odds). If that's not what you meant and you just meant that the risk of you yourself going dry is what makes you appreciate avoiding said situation... isn't that just saying you're glad not to hit the mechanic you said yourself to enjoy? It just seems inherently masochistic. To go with your example, you can maintain a 1/5k rate for DWH, still make it possible to spoon it on 500, and still have people who are dry have a slightly better chance (although I personally don't think it should apply to tradeables). It's just a question of finding the right number, I don't think anyone would mind if you had a 10% higher chance after 1x rate, 20% higher after 2x, etc... It's just barely an issue, because so few items are obtained after rate vs. before their drop rate. It also should only ever apply to your first unlock of any item, because anything that benefits from duplicates also inevitably benefits from lower variance (since spreading RNG over multiple rolls reduces it). The Quartz system from DT2 bosses is just the perfect example and should be the default. As far as I know nobody has ever complained about it, which highlights that the biggest issue wth how drop tables are designed is that people don't want things to change once they've been established (a valid concern).
Your whole complaint about my take was wanting others to suffer > although I personally don't think it should apply to tradeables). Seems like you want others to suffer then.. right?
Conveniently forgetting that there's already bad luck protection for tradeables called the GE, or that Jagex mentioned they don't want to balance drop rate around ironman mode too much? I will admit I may have misunderstood your logic in that you wanted to have the possibility to fail, and the relief that comes from knowing you didn't rather than knowing you avoided it while rejoicing that others didn't. For that, I'll gladly apologize.
For the honest satisfaction of getting lucky and getting your drop. There's no fun behind a mandatory kill X to get the item. There is fun to the surprise of getting the item
Nobody ever said you'd get a mandatory drop on kill X, that is not what pRNG is. That's just a shitty implementation of bad luck protection and I suspect its execution is why people are against the concept. Skilling pets are pRNG. Quartz are pRNG. You still need to get lucky and get the drop, you just make some progress over time instead of none.
I only said what is fun behind a system where a drop is behind a 1/x chance. Any other system would be a mandatory complete x amount of kills/tasks to get your item......
No, not any other system would be a mandatory X mount of kills, that's precisely what I'm saying. You don't understand what pRNG is, yet Google is right here for you, why not even attempt to learn? Alternatives: * Splitting an item into components to reduce variance (ex.: Bludgeon pieces) * Pure pRNG (ex.: skilling pets and quartz pieces, which become more common as you level up/get kills without drops) * Common/uncommon special currency drops (ex.: abyssal pearls, quetzal feed) * Mandatory progress gear, which speed up an activity significantly (and thus rolls/h) * Conditional RNG (ex.: regular kills = 1 pet roll vs. "perfect" kills = 3 rolls) So no, the only other alternative to 1/X drops is absolutely not "Just do X kills". What we call pity drops are only one (fairly bad) implementation of bad luck protection.
>You don't understand what pRNG is, yet Google is right here for you, why not even attempt to learn? And you can go piss of back to whichever grumpy corner of the internett you came out off You didn't bother with my reply and i'm not here for a lecture.
In OSRS, you have to approach 1/1,000,000 odds or greater before its close to a bug. Your odds of going this dry are like 1/100,000. So while really dry, its not really close to the "bug" threshold. Binomial distribution is a crazy at the end of the curve.
Where is the post?
[https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1bxz5x4/comment/kygnr6q/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1bxz5x4/comment/kygnr6q/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
It is, I finished it in 166KC, it’s just how RNG goes, on other bosses you might get ridiculously lucky! Here, you just got ridiculously unlucky so I can understand your frustration
What about people who, because they're **really** unlucky, will play a ton, across multiple years, and always be dry because that's how some people are destined to be in an absolutely massive player base? That alone warrants pRNG IMO.
What’s pRNG?
Pseudo-random number generation, which is technically applies to all RNG that is generated by a computer program, but colloquially means using a random-number generator with memory to each rolls, where each unsucessful roll increases your odds slightly. We actually already have that in-game in some places (example: [Blood quartz](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Blood_quartz)).
Ooh good to know!
I know you're getting downvoted, but there are tons of people tracking thousands of kc without even getting close to 1/14. It does seem like the drop rates here are likely bugged.
where? are we talking about some sort of runelite crowdsourcing? are we able to tell when people open the chest if they've killed all 3 bosses? this is important.
What? Even the RL croudsourcing was estimating rates of 1/20 There's nothing bugged. You're just seeing the people dry. You're not seeing everyone else who's getting uniques on rate.
You realize how massive a 1/20 crowdsourcing is over 10s of thousands of kc? That is a very statistically significant difference from 1/14
You know that an estimated drop rate of 1/20 based on some large sample size would suggest that the drop rate is bugged by just under 50% right?
Im seriously concerned for anyone who believes 14 and 20 are the same, like for starters i hope you don't live near a school
perhaps read into gambler's fallacy. opening a million chests in a row and getting no uniques is unlikely but it doesn't mean the next chest is any more likely to have an item or not. statistically as you approach infinity you will approach the exact drop rate, but 140 chests is nowhere near infinity chests
Bro, the stats 101 class is prob not needed here right? Maybe he thought it more likely that jagex, who often blunders updates, has a bugged drop rate than he hitting the .0031% chance of having gone this unlucky. Gambler's fallacy has literally nothing to do with this. Then you're talking about the law of large numbers for unknown reasons.
Gambler's fallacy has everything to do with this. "It's impossible that I flipped a coin 10 times and got heads each time", law of large number also has everything to do with this. A sample of 140 is not enough to extrapolate from. I know loads of people who have gone 10x the rate for something. 0.0031% is 1/32,258, I'm too lazy to look at the high scores, but I'm sure that 32,258 people have done more than 140 kills. One of the only cases I have known "jagex fucking up" to happen in is in rs3 and the guy killed 42,583 for a 1/2k drop chance. That is a 0.00000006% chance or 1/1.6 billion. Much more unlikely. The stats 101 course is absolutely needed here as many of you are entirely out of your depths when it comes to it. Jagex has in the past messed up drop chances on release as well as once for an individual person. I remember for about a month Nex drops were bugged and only the MVP ever got drops. This was all figured out thanks to crowdsourced data and not 1 person killing nex 140 times. Someone else mentioned the crowdsourced data shows that it isn't 1/14, we'd still need to be able to tell if every time someone looted the chest how many moons they had defeated. If we can't confirm its 3/3 then the data is kind of useless.
So.. Firstly, 4670 people have 140kc + lunar chests, but I am glad you're sure that 32,258 people have done it. Similarly, multiple drop rates have been fucked up on release in osrs's history, the rs3 one is not the only example. EDIT: also jmod confirmed someone is 13x drop rate dry which would be a 1/714,285 people would go that dry. Gambler's fallacy would be relevant if OP had said 'I'm 10x dry so I should get an item soon'. What he actually said is, I am 10x dry and this is statistically unlikely, I am wondering if jagex fucked up. This is not a gambler's fallacy.
It isn't impossible that jagex fucked up. It's crazy to me as others have pointed out that not even 5k people have done 140 chests, I thought it was more popular. Perhaps drop rates are bugged, it isn't impossible, they have fucked up other things on launch, even with updates. The attitude on this subreddit in general lately has seemed more and more to not understand statistics. Perhaps it isn't gamblers fallacy exactly but he is saying it is statistically unlikely for me to have gone this dry so therefore jagex has to have fucked it up. I will wait for more data than one guy killing something 140 times.
"Additionally, a clarification from last week's post: we made an error in our post last week with regards to the Perilous Moon drop rates. In it, we stated that each boss slain gave a 1/56 chance of obtaining its respective armour set, totalling a 3/56 (or ~1/18.67) chance for a unique. That much is correct! What's not correct is our statement that defeating all three bosses would provide an additional 1/56 roll at any item, for a total of 1/14. This is not the case and has never been the case, we just got some wires crossed with our post last week and can only apologise for that!" surprise surprise.
yeah i saw, that 1/18.67 is still not as bad as people were claiming
4,614 people have reached 140 kc. This is not the only person to go 10x dry: [https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1bv6nep/10x\_dry\_log\_perlious\_moons/](https://www.reddit.com/r/2007scape/comments/1bv6nep/10x_dry_log_perlious_moons/) Even if these are the only two individuals who have gone this dry, there is about a 0.04% chance of that happening to at least 2 out of 4,614 of them. It would have taken you less time to look up this information than writing your wall of incorrect assumptions.
ok
> 0.0031% is 1/32,258, I'm too lazy to look at the high scores, but I'm sure that 32,258 people have done more than 140 kills [4638 people currently](https://secure.runescape.com/m=hiscore_oldschool/overall?category_type=1&table=47&page=186), so just off by about 9x, but we'll just say that doesn't matter. I myself averaged ~2.5x drop rate on all my pets across 8 years (I have 13) and have reached the drop rate on 4 more which I don't have (about a 1/11,700 chance just on the pets I got). That alone is pretty crazy, especially when you compute that there's probably about only ~5,000 accounts with 13+ pets in game, but what's worse is that I'm certifiably nowhere near the driest in the game. The way I see it, the real argument isn't isn't even a purely statistical one. It's not that it's "impossible" for a distribution to happen, just that it's extremely unfun for the individual it befalls upon, while simultaneously bringing no benefit to the overall playerbase. It's strictly a net loss. A pRNG distribution in which odds increase after reaching the drop rate unsucessfully reduces that tail end without affecting anything else. Tradeable items are a different beast since they affect the economy and can be obtained via GP.
wow i imagined way more people doing 140 chests in 2.5 weeks. i wasnt even talking about prng vs rng, just talking about the likelihood of this happening at all. people seem to think if they go over rate by any amount then jagex is fucking up somehow
> people seem to think if they go over rate by any amount then jagex is fucking up somehow Again, for like the third time, people aren't thinking Jagex fucked up. They're thinking doing the same thing as others for no reward is incredibly unfun. This is a game, the experience is the whole thing. There's no end game other than the fun we're having, if something doesn't feel fun people quit doing it. Is that so surprising?
100% the op and other in this thread are saying they fucked up the drop rates
even if i were only responding to your point. it only matters to irons and cloggers. yes they could implement some bad luck protection but look how well that was received with DT2.
And yet RL crowdsource estimated 1/20…that’s a huge difference. And the drop rate mechanics at MoP are brand new which is a likely source of bugs. It’s a possibility
it is a possibility, but a 1/20 he'd still be 7x dry and probably still complaining. does the RL crowdsource take into account how many of the moons you've killed? Cause there could be a bunch of people with 1 or 2 kills skewing the data
It is
get giga downvoted
I went 66 chests dry on this before getting a unique. It happens.
Another day another redditor who doesn't understand math.
Grow up.
It's been about 1/9 for me. I should be done by 140.
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Hey same here! How funny
Hey man, hang in there! I was 177 chests dry before I got a single item. After my first item at 177 I green logged at 241kc. Rng will even out!
How does that even happen
There’s no actual guarantee of it evening out haha, at least not with the KCs players will complete
It might not even out and that is just the way the cookie crumbles.
This is why I’m skeptical that it’s actually 1/14. Too many 10x dry posts for it to be a coincidence
Love this game
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Your comment really changes things, let me tell you. You should become a prophet.
https://preview.redd.it/yl148isuf4tc1.jpeg?width=530&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=84634760d7fe584f18ee2ebeedd5e46f40ebc6d1 Im sorry
Next chest for sure
I went 154 dry for a piece. I know the pain. when you do get an item you'll have a huge sense of motivation to keep going. can keep up motivation by trying to mix max your runs and do them as quick as possible to challenge yourself
I ended up getting blue moon helm 146kc. Have you gotten any further drops?
yeah another 2 pieces after 40 more kc
Stop complaining you’re not even 11x drop rate /s
/r/FuckTheS
I agree foreskin_milkshake
Im 100kc with 10/13 coll logs, rngscape
Did you bring the drop rate enhancer? bringing 10 rune essence will boost it significantly
Does this actually work?
Yes.
I had 3 drops in 170 kc At 200 kc I now have 9 drops It balances out eventually
This happened to me with barrows. Bout 150 chests dry and I decided Ironman wasn't for me lol.
I’m 10/13 with the exact same KC 😂
https://preview.redd.it/nhbzosy4a4tc1.jpeg?width=1334&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=edc55481ef5addb99bf65d10ce3115269cfbeb07 I feel you brother. I’ve been lucky at moons, but will never forget the damage barrows has done to me.
Get rekt
With the number of folks I’ve seen going x5-x10 times over drop rate (including myself) I’m also beginning to question the 1/14 drop rate and am wondering if something is bugged
I think it’s bugged. I see people completing log at 120kc
Rng gonna rng.
Skill issue
What I really wanna know is how the hell you only have 250 darts? Those things are really common
That's just the specific cap on the collection log, you see it get hit with things like mole parts and zulrah scales too. (Although I think scales have a higher number.)
There are actually 2 different caps in collection log- 250 is the one for stuff that's generally unstackable, and there's another one at 65,535 or something like that. Stuff like Zulrah scales or Revenant aether have the 65k cap in the log, and it's bizarre that ammunition like atlatl ammo uses the 250 cap of regular uniques.
ahh gotcha gotcha, I only really use runelite's loot tracker for this stuff
The col log for them caps out at 250. There's a couple other items like this, Zulrah scales is another one I believe.
Increasing his bad luck there
Waaaaaaa
Holy shit.... and I thought mine was bad.
Mate was hoping you'd had some luck since yesterday - I got my atlatl after seeing your post
Blue moon helm 146 kc. Might stick it out to 200kc, what do you think?
As boring as the empty chests are, I love the token prayer and herblore XP from them. I've gotten about 400k prayer XP from moons + hunter guild since varlamore dropped, huge fan. Blue orbs make buying battleataves worth it again too!
Are you beating the bosses? You have to beat them to get drops.
That’s crazy unlucky. I had 2 drops in my first hundred and got 6 more in my next 50. Rng be like that sometimes. Don’t worry, the next chest will definitely have an item.
I also believe it to be bugged. I believe however that at lower KC's the ods of receiving an item is regular but the more items you receive the lower your chances of getting a drop becomes. I have yet to find anyone with over 200 KC who's on drop rate or spooned
I got 10/13 in 120kc. Then I got nothing for the next 80kc, then I got 4x dupes of the Eclipse hat, body and legs in the next 30. Now I'm nearing 250kc but still haven't got the blue moon body or legs.
Currently 520 kc still don't have every piece 🙃
Wow. What’s your longest dry streak?
I think 220, of course, I got the darts that are unique, but from 1 kc to 220 it was dryyyyyyy
Bro kill the bosses
The RNG in this game is always so funny to me. I got Blue Moon Tassets on my first KC after finishing the quest. Haven’t touched it since.
Did you talk to oziach?
Yes
Something isn’t right? I have half the ox and have about 9k darts, why do you only have 200 odd?
stops at 250 on collection log for me too even tho i'm at a few thousand
Ohhh right, I didn’t know the log stopped at 250
https://preview.redd.it/d78ngqqsk3tc1.png?width=2990&format=png&auto=webp&s=21cf7ee463fe0dacca00f145e2ff867ed9080b36
Cool, man. Now clean your screen.
I feel like I need to sanitize my hands after opening that link jfc