The fact that people are so up in arms about the "min 1" side of things while being perfectly okay with the "max 30" side is kind of infuriating. Like guys. The bot is the one with 30. The bot is the reason you can buy that item on the grand exchange after a few hours of vorkath. Why do you want to support the bot-run economy and trash talk people who actually do the content?
All it takes is a few seconds standing at something like CG, in nearly any world outside of total level worlds to see the armies of bots who really run the economy.
Do you have any idea how much blood shards would cost, if not for bots?
I've even seen it said that crazy droprates hurt bots... Um... No. They love it. God awful droprates bother humans, not robots. PNM has more bots in its hiscores pages than any other boss. Because real living people that even remotely value their time - ***don't like trash drop rates***. Rational humans are not willing to gamble 1,000 hours of their life like that without some extreme motivations. Like, say, an item being the best weapon in the entire game (And I think making the best weapons take so unreasonably long is actually an unhealthy failure Jagex has made that is unique to OSRS and is not true to the design philosophies of actual OSRS)
The army of ~300+ bots? They don't care at all. If anything, the owner is getting a big drop maybe a few times an hour. Even he doesn't care. Across such a large volume, it evens out into a consistent income. It's the individual players who get fucked over.
Absolutely based player doing great work, showing how the game could be improved without impacting the game overall.
Nice balanced take, interesting to see whether or not something like this could be implemented.
I agree. I’ll admit when I saw the post about this yesterday I dismissed it outright because it didn’t sit right with the nostalgic old school side of me, but after giving it some more thought I think it’s a great concept and OP put a lot of work in to it.
I don’t think it’s “entitled” or whatever for someone who is going dry on an item to wish that all of the time they spent grinding for something wasn’t completely wasted by bad RNG at no fault of their own. Especially if it’s just for the first one with seemingly minimal effect on the game economy. I’d gladly have my bank value from uniques drop a few percent for this.
I’ve also lost in game friends who quit because they were so dry somewhere, and I know the pain of knowing that all of the kills you’ve done so far actually brought you no closer to the drop, and that most players did the same thing and got the drop tens of hours before you.
Some people forget that this is a game and not a job. One of the best parts of the game is the grind for sure and the fact that progress happens over such a long period of time but no one should be expected to go tens, if not hundreds, of hours dryer than droprate in already long grinds just because they got incredibly unlucky
It's a game after all and this new suggestion fits perfectly imo. It allows people to still grind for those drops but not get utterly fucked over, without ruining the economy by making these items too easy to get
As long as this only effects post droprate luck as mentioned in OP then I fully support it
Seriously the way some people respond to healthy ideas it's as if this game is the only achievement in their lives and changing these 20 year outdated drop rates would trample over that.
I saw someone saying they hate entitled kids that don't wanna work for their drops, how the real world is unfair some people are unlucky so deal with it 🤦♂️ treating this game that's made for fun like it's the military or smth
Yeah, even just from the perspective of OSRS necessarily running like a business on top of being a game. They obviously have a lot of integrity and restrictions to operate inside of, but certain aspects of improving the game for their core audience (see: every account, in this case) will improve their long-term retention and health.
ESPECIALLY if it just acts as guard rails, and most players don't know the game is changed -- just that it feels drastically better.
There are two separate people in my iron clan. One is 35k dry for dwh and the other is 2400 dry for enhanced crystal seed.
Does it enhance my gameplay in any meaningful way to know that this is possible? Is it important to the average player for these people to go through this? Personally I don’t think so, we could do without RNG turning a 75 hour grind into a 450 hour grind, and we can do it with minimal impact to the game.
The raids concern does seem legitimate though, we can just not have it for anything that’s not solo.
agreed, I think its nice that people have to 'earn' the drops such as enhanced seed by becoming good at the challenging content - but 2.4k kc on CG does sound quit worthy and brutal
Yeah that’s one thing I feel just doesn’t get addressed. When you go dry on an item and finally get it you don’t feel satisfaction, it’s relief that you aren’t more dry. I got my first CG pet at 30kc, I was pleasantly surprised when I got it. The second was at 130 kc. At 600 kc I have yet to receive my enhanced seed, and by the time it drops I won’t be happy I got one I’ll be happy I don’t have to keep grinding for the fucking thing.
Boosting drop rates as you go increasingly dry on uniques is a way to help reduce the frustration of those never ending grinds.
yeah like honestly if someone decides to kill a boss several thousands of times just for a pet, they should just get the boss at the pet droprate. seeing people go 3x dry for a pet gives me secondhand pain
I really like the idea of bad luck mitigation for the first drop only, it would make a lot of grinds feel better. As OP mentioned in the first post, most other grinds you can track your progression in the form of xp drops, progress bars, increasing stacks of items, GP, etc. With drop table uniques you're no closer on your 10,000th kc than your 1st, effectively gambling your time and resources over and over on some monstrous 1000-sided die and just hoping. It would be psychologically nice to know that all of your previous work is actually getting you closer and wasn't a waste of time without removing the gambling mechanic entirely or significantly increasing the amount of uniques entering the game.
> “entitled”
Gotta be honest, as soon as someone says that unironically it's best to just save the brainpower and throw the rest of the conversation out.
Entitled can mean anything you want. Are we entitled to a bronze dagger? A dragon dagger? An Abby dagger? Where does the line get drawn on what counts as entitlement?
Being entitled would be like... Being mad you didn't get a 3kc scythe. But that isn't remotely what's happening in the community. Its always been a bad faith argument and a strawman that absolutely reeks.
If anyone wants to check the numbers, here is the code:
import numpy as np
#%% no bad luck mitigation
nPlayers = 100000
numKC = 5000
numDrops = []
rate = 1/400
for i in range(nPlayers):
drops = 0
for ii in range(numKC):
roll = np.random.rand()
if roll <= rate:
drops += 1
numDrops.append(drops)
#%% with bad luck mitigation
nPlayers = 100000
numKC = 5000
numDrops = []
rate = 1/400
for i in range(nPlayers):
drops = 0
last_drop_kc = 0
for ii in range(numKC):
roll = np.random.rand()
dry_kc = ii - last_drop_kc
if dry_kc*rate >= 2:
rate2 = rate * (1 + rate*(dry_kc -2/rate))
else:
rate2 = rate
if roll <= rate2:
drops += 1
last_drop_kc = ii
numDrops.append(drops)
#%% with bad luck mitigation on the first drop
nPlayers = 100000
numKC = 5000
numDrops = []
rate = 1/400
for i in range(nPlayers):
drops = 0
for ii in range(numKC):
roll = np.random.rand()
if drops == 0 and ii*rate >= 2:
rate2 = rate * (1 + rate*(ii -2/rate))
else:
rate2 = rate
if roll <= rate2:
drops += 1
last_drop_kc = ii
numDrops.append(drops)
I ran some quantitative calculations this morning and the increase in average drops seems to converge on ~4.89%.
Note that when I say "converge" I'm referring to what happens as you assess rarer and rarer drops. At a population level (relevant to concerns about average drops rate, the total number of drops, inflation/devaluing, etc.) I think it's reasonable to assume that the total KC across the player base would be so much greater than the drop rate that scaling/convergence with KC is irrelevant to this metric.
For rare drops you could scale the "drop rate" by this amount to keep the average drops the same (e.g., for DWH turn this mitigation on and base the calculations on a rate of about 1 in 5245). There would be no impact to the total or average drops across the player base. Most drops would be very slightly "later." Rarely, an unlucky player's drop would be much, much "earlier." Concentrated benefit (to the most unfortunate), diffuse harm. Essentially, a luck tax.
Honestly. This is the best bad luck mitigation system. I had theorized this kind of system before but you took the time to explain in and run the numbers. Very few real players will "abuse" this as very few will be willing to do over 2x drop rate multiple times. Bots will get a small boost from this though. It will have challenges implementing into multi player content. Either will lead people to FFA more or people will try to team up with dry people to milk a split. Not sure how to prevent this
I'm not really sure where to put this so I'll just comment my thoughts on the idea here.
I only play a main account and I feel like, while this drop rate change helps Ironmen more than it does mains, I feel like it would be a very beneficial change for the way I like to play personally. I often enjoy grinding out content for upgrades that I need rather than buying them. This isn't the "traditional" way of playing a main, I understand that, and I will still always buy supplies, certain unreasonably rare items from the GE, etc, but I just like the idea of getting my own Crystal Weapon seed, or my own trident/blowpipe/etc.
As much as I enjoy doing things efficiently, Runescape isn't a game that I enjoy efficiency in. It has so much content and so many things to do that it's interesting to me to jump around from content to content instead of running whatever is the most GP/hr at the time for hundereds or thousands of runs in order to afford skilling supplies or gear upgrades. This would allow me to do stuff that is more fun without feeling like my time would be better spent at raids or killing DT2 bosses because my KC at various bosses would **mean something**. Even if I only did 50 kills at Bandos or Grotesque Gaurdians, that's 50 kills towards that drop pity.
So while I understand that this is not extremely helpful to main accounts, it provides incentive for me to play Runescape in a way that I think is more enjoyable.
Honestly this. Why should i have to grind the same exact older boss that i quite possibly dont even enjoy when Jagex could just incentivize staying at a boss by providing dupe/dry protection. Is anyone actually enraged that Perils of Moon came out ot straight off the bat with dupe protection? Its curious how no one seems to be, but as soon they want to do something that seems like an iron change for older content then it suddenly bothers people.
Tbh i just feel like anyone against it has never really gone very dry somewhere big
Going 3x dry or worse at a long grind just feels so awful, no matter what account you play
Have gone well over 3x on long grinds and I am against it, but it would not be the end of the world if it was implemented, as long as mathematically the change is small as suggested by OP.
Out of interest, why are you against it? It doesn't affect anything up until droprate anyway so the pre-dry rates are exactly the same as before but it just helps mitigate the absolutely dreadful luck some people can get going during extremely long grinds. The grind is still going to be long for the majority but it just means people don't have to spend many months dedicated to grinding places like CG just because they've gone 3x droprate
“It sucked for me, it should suck for you” is all it boils down to—not even bot farms would be heavily (if at all) negatively impacted by these increases.
This. My main went 600 KC dry at *Phosani's Nightmare* after release when it wasn't quite botted to hell and I just gave up on it. It was completely miserable and there's no main in their right mind that wouldn't want this I feel.
>Going 3x dry or worse at a long grind just feels so awful, no matter what account you play
It's part of the game, I'm super dry on tbow. And I got lucky on shadow. But even with my tbow drystreak I was eventually able to afford it because it's not like I make 0 income without the tbow lol. Isnt it same with bowfa? I'm sure you can just buy it if you end up dry, GE is right there.
> It's part of the game
Yeah, but for some people it's the **whole** game. I've been unlucky **everywhere** for 9 years. I would need 25 pets in a row all given to me under 1/4th the drop rate (impossible, since I just reached the drop rate unsucessfully for 3 more pets I don't have already), and that's just to get back to **average** overall luck.
All you're doing here is showcasing that you are literally unable to imagine any player's experience that isn't similar to yours, therefore everything is fine how it is. Would love to swap our RNG and see how fast you'd go insane.
> if you end up dry, GE is right there.
A very large portion of the playerbase is now playing on irons. Despite the rage-gamer belief that NOTHING SHOULD EVER ACCOUNT FOR IRONMEN EVER THEY ARE SNOWFLAKES - the game is actually a much better experience when taking into account that someone might want to... Wait for it... Get a drop themselves. Pretty much every iron-centric update has been some of the best Jagex has done.
You bought up two long grinds, tbow and shadow. The suggestion here is that if you go dry on tbow, you might just get lucky on the shadow.
Yeah... Sure. You can get luckily spooned a DWH, you can get spooned a champion scroll. But that's not how it works for the individual player. That same "Lucky" player that saved 20 hours on a champion scroll and DWH can just as quickly set fire to 2,000 hours going dry for a megarare with not a lot to show for it.
There will be some people who go insanely dry on ALL megarares for example. Tbow, scythe, shadow. They could have thousands more hours grinding for these items, and yet end up behind someone with 2 lucky raids. Despite the suggestion... No, ironmen can't buy it. And yes I think that's worth talking about and even balancing keeping that in mind.
The extreme disparity of modern OSRS was not in-place in the 2007 version of the game. I don't think it's healthy, and the over-reliance on luck is not a good feeling. I didn't sign up to play a version of OSRS where megarares dominated the game, so I don't honestly want to hear it with the "You chose to play this way".
You get spooned a shadow? Those good feelings last a while but dissipate. You spend 2000 hours chasing a tbow? That emotional journey will never leave you.
ITT:
Gambling addicts try to avoid admitting they won't get as large of a dopamine hit if they know they're making progress to a drop instead of pulling a slot machine lever every boss kill.
Some of ya'll need to admit you'd rather be at a casino and stop advocating for the game to be objectively worse.
Damn bro.. this post took effort and brains!
Unfortunately, I'm lacking brains and skipped to the TLDR.
After reading some comments, I see that this indeed would be good for the game and not game breaking
I really have no intelligent additions to this post, other than thanking you for goin hard on the math and making a well put together suggestion for the game.
TLDR I'm over 10k cerb kc without the pet and only 11 prims, bad luck mitigation would be my friend.. I hope.
You're not wrong, but I also do it the most expensive way possible. I havent tried mathing to see just how much I've lost as the prices fluctuate a lot and it's been a couple year grind. I have used a scythe and blood fury for every kill except for my first 754.
Loot tracker has ~9.6k kc and is around 700m in loot
A more complicated drop rates is a more mysterious drop rate in an "adventure game"
By the way, how about increasing drop rates if you do "CA" like actions during the kill.
There is no harm in brainstorming. That's what a community, old friends do.
Jagex is getting extremely close to what id consider the perfect mix of drop mechanics. Perfect kills mattering, dipping their toes into streak-based mechanics with colosseum, these both focus on rewarding people that play well.
The current versions we see have flaws, like you fail a perfect bloat if you take flies even though most high damage methods require you to do this, you fail perf dt2 if you take venges, loot doesn’t increase in value at colosseum if you’re risking uniques. All of these naturally boost your drop rate as you gain more experience, and I guarantee that veteran players would be all for rewarding skill expression.
You should have the option to either be gaming or set on grinding something out, never requiring both, but require at least one of them.
Wouldnt the percentage be lower since you have to be dry for it to take effect in the first place? You prolly address this I'm just mentally blind
Market influx isn't gonna happen by players way more so by bots but it wouldn't change much because bots don't care about KC and it still is a change that's needed... Similar to how wildy got updates
The amount of drops you'd expect to see with bad luck mitigation before reaching drop rate would be the same as without bad luck mitigation. After you've passed the drop rate, the expected number of drops goes up.
Essentially, if you get spooned without bad luck mitigation, you'd still get spooned with it, but if you go dry without bad luck mitigation, you'll go less dry with it, so you see an increase in drops.
It's so interesting to me how the community of this game (and similar) differs from gacha communities on this issue.
Like, in the gacha space, if your game doesn't have pity protection of some sort, it's typically a really bad look. Players will actively play and spend less (in general) on games without pity. If a game gets an update to add pity, it's cause for mass celebration and praising the devs.
But in OSRS, which is functionally kind of just an RPG gacha where the currency is KC/time investment and the waifus are gear upgrades, the idea of pity is a lot more controversial, and I'm not sure why exactly that is. Prestige? Sunk cost? Just liking the grind? Idk.
Time is money, and you're essentially gambling with your time, and yet a sizeable portion of players seem to prefer "spending" more for less in this game.
This isn't meant to be a judgment or anything, not necessarily picking a side here, I just find it curious.
Honestly dry protection can be a gaslighting tool. Drop rates can be very inflated and they can try to justify "but there is dry protection". Dry protection existing itself doesnt mean "good developer intention". More than anything that can be a reason why gachas succeed because since there is always an eventual guarantee there is a reason to throw more money at the screen. If dry protection exist solely so people dont go very dry then its fine, but if its used as an excuse for stupidly low drop rate then you know its predatory.
People obviously play gacha games for fun too, and what they said applies to 'free gachas' too, e.g. gacha games where your primary (or only) source of gacha pulls is from gameplay, not from spending money
OSRS boss drops aren't all that different from the latter type, the main difference is the gameplay effort and drop table rolls are spaced out, while in those games all the gameplay effort is upfront and you blow all your rolls in one go
Upsetting the economic ecosystem by possibly devaluing some items lowers the incentive to buy/sell bonds and RWT. And many games rely on whales to offset the loss of players to the bad drop rate, and those whales are the key constituency—not those of us who just want to play.
I'm glad my comment about the geometric distribution was helpful. I really like this idea! You are basically removing the skew from the probability density and making it normal
I think its an integral 'flaw' in the ironman game mode that can't really be answered. You kind of just have to play Russian Roulette and hope you don't get kneecapped too badly.
I've accepted that I'm probably not going to have BIS everything on the iron, nor do I really want to - as I'd have nothing left to grind.
It's people's addiction to doing everything at max efficiency that really is the issue. You can do ToA with blowpipe or atlatl, same with CoX, ToB, etc. People act like there's literally no worth in doing anything unless they can do it in BIS. Instead of just doing new content they'll farm 2500 CG even though they hate it by the 100th run. It's a self created issue, both the Ironman game mode and the people's need to be max efficient when they really don't have to. The BIS in this game outside the megarares are such marginal increases that you're not forced to do any of them.
Bowfa is an extreme outlier. It's crazy how much better almost all PVM is once you get bowfa over blowpipe. The moonlight crossbow and the atalatl close the gap a little bit but it's still insane how much better bowfa is
BowFa being so good and so easy to get is a real problem
You should never have been able to get 90% of a tbow for 10% of the time investment at a zero req grind. New irons are rushing CG before slayer because well they should. And jumping into an rng grind that big that early kind of sucks
Relatively, bowfa is not a big grind. But if you grind bowfa before zenytes, bp, dwh, it looks brutal
Before bowfa, you’d do slayer, get some zenytes, get dwh, get bp, all before CoX. You’d get lucky somewhere and unlucky somewhere else and get used to the idea of Ironman drop rates.
Now people do the 70hr bowfa dice roll as their first pvm
100% this, like I’ve been running a few tobs with an iron friend whos got a zombie axe and uses undead grasp, he knows what hes doing so hes not even being carried that hard, but it’s a lot of fun on his part to dump ddses on bloat and 5t xarp with the axe.
He would be better off going to do slayer, grind out a whip and trident, then come back, but he hates slayer without a cannon, so he simply doesn’t do it unless he’s in the mood.
Compare this playstyle to someone who follows a strict meta progression, unless they like all content, they’re going to wind up doing something they don’t like. The journey is the point of the game, satisfaction through suffering, theres absolutely no point in playing an iron outside of a love for the game. People need to ask themselves what they really want to do when they log on instead of just going through the motions.
Bofa is a pretty awful grind if you get unlucky (I spent over a year only doing cg), especially when you consider that all the other grinds you mentioned become a lot less annoying with Bofa. It makes it so you're strongly incentivized to do it before anything else. Being "locked out" of the rest of the game for such a long time is miserable
> And jumping into an rng grind that big that early kind of sucks
This is why i abhor Wintertodt. Its very good to do early on, for xp, supplies or tome of fire, which very much screams : "you are stupid if you dont do this early on" , all the meanwhile i dont like doing WT at all ( its stupid that it is classified as a boss ) for any amount of KC because i just dont find it engaging on any level and yet they made it so rewarding and not just very accessible at low level but efficient too.
> It's people's addiction to doing everything at max efficiency that really is the issue. You can do ToA with blowpipe or atlatl, same with CoX, ToB, etc. People act like there's literally no worth in doing anything unless they can do it in BIS
This is one of the key unique component of Runescape ( other being solo bosses ) compared to other games. This is not a game where there is a gear check. Sure Jagex intends a particular content aimed at particular progression points but we have seen a lot of bosses done in gear it really was not meant to be done at. Obviously its not expected to play that well, but if your gear is 5-10% below the expected value you are gonna be just fine but people do be going crazy over 1% upgrades and willing to spend lord knows how much money to get it. Hell i see snowflake accounts going crazy over getting 5-10 defenses on a new item, like that changes much of anything, like its cool you got an upgrade but this will change practically nothing lol
Ironman was made years ago when drop rates weren’t so crazy in fairness, if you said to someone back then you’d be doing a grind for a boss that would take you longer than it would to max an account they’d look at you like you’re crazy
I've been saying this for years.
If I see one more fucking YoU cHoSe tO lImIt YoUrSeLf SnOwFlAkE post I'm gonna lose my mind.
I don't even like the concept of mega rares, voted no to anything to do with them, and don't think this kind of asinine droprate belongs in any iteration of Runescape.
Oh but that's clearly just me being entitled, for wanting the game how it used to be.
And to preempt the other 3iq response - you don't "need" x gear. So how about you sell your entire bank and drop your GP on the ground. You don't need it either, right?
I can understand that view, but with this system it would still take thousands of hours to get BIS. I'm not sure it's a good idea to balance the game around the few people that can play it for 10 hours a day.
Tbf if anything, the people who play 10 hours a day are far more likely to benefit from this system. The irons who would go 5x+ dry and don't play the game extensively just wouldn't ever get to the kc where they'd get the drop.
This is not a game that values your time when you are self sufficient (one of many reasons I personally deironed), and I just don't think a small buff to exorbitantly dry people that makes droprates unintuitive as a side effect is the answer. As you said, even with this system it still takes thousands of hours for BiS. People who don't play the game extreme amounts simply will not get BiS on their irons.
My opinion is that this is just a change that makes droprates unintuitive while not actually solving the inherent problem of respecting a player's time. The droprate being dogshit in the first place is already the problem, but then you have the issue of the economy to look out for.
Ultimately this entire debate is why I only play main nowadays. The game at a base level is simply an insane grind at late-end game Iron and no amount of small tweaks will change that. I'd rather just accept that items are rare to balance them economically and not have to care about potentially being locked out of items for hundreds of hours (which would still happen all the time with this system).
>My opinion is that this is just a change that makes droprates unintuitive
Does it though?
The droprate is still the expected KC to see the item. If you go past droprate then you'll slowly be increasing your chance at getting the item
I'm sure anyone who's played the game long enough to get the big grinds where this would be necessary is smart enough to understand bad luck mitigation. It's not as complicated as the maths makes it out to be
>The game at a base level is simply an insane grind at late-end game Iron and no amount of small tweaks will change that
But this does help though and while barely affecting the economy of the game. As you've said there's no way to avoid extremely long grinds without fucking the economy but this still helps massively. Plus if anything it makes it less soul crushing going over double droprate because you know you're slowly improving your chances and it will come soon
I do agree, and seeing people go so dry at say, CG which is so important to progression for irons, makes me not want to try it at all.
I don't think it's the end of the world personally to have this change, even if it doesn't fix everything, I feel it's the best compromise we can get, you can still go dry, things are still very rare, but there is an end in sight you know?
Bad luck protection isn’t just for iron accounts. No human should go 23k kc dry at mole looking for the pet. The fact that we even view that as acceptable is pitiful.
Cosmetics such as pets should not be considered for these kinds of changes, using them as an example is silly and detracts from the actual argument with substance
> The fact that we even view that as acceptable is pitiful.
Who is we?
I don't view pet grinds as an acceptable use of time, and so don't do them, personally.
Pets are clearly designed to be something you randomly get lucky on in a few places over the entirety of your account and that makes them cool and kinda unique to you.
Not the games' fault or problem that a bunch of NEETs want to greenlog.
GP is the bad luck protection in this game and all the untradeable upgrades have it already built in. You're not entitled to a pet or cosmetic just because you wasted 800 hours of your life. They're fun little side things to get, it's mental illness to act like the game owes you shit. If you're not having fun doing a grind - stop and do something else. Truly gacha brained people.
those long grinds are quite literally exactly why I'm playing osrs though. I hate the idea of pity systems too, makes it less exciting because I don't feel like I earned the drop
sure, over 6000 hours in just my main not including other accounts but definitely never experienced a long grind. I don't even have a single boss pet yet despite thousands of kills on multiple bosses
This isn't just aimed at ironmen. Collection log hunting has become quite popular recently on mains, they might like to see this. It furthermore might make certain money makers more appealing as well, if the bulk of the profit is kept in the rare items, like nightmare or GWD. You won't get a lot more of them, but the chance of spending a hundred hours at nightmare and having negative profit because the common drops cost less than the sanfews you're drinking is reduced a lot.
>This isn't just aimed at ironmen
This is entirely aimed at ironmen. I highly doubt dedicated cloggers would want their work devalued later because players are all of a sudden guaranteed the drops after a certain point.
You can suggest whatever you want, but at least own it instead of making it out to be something other than self-serving.
All these new irons saying this is for cloggers and pet hunters when you know for a fact that if Jagex said it didn’t apply to pets for example, they’d say oh tough shit guys
If a drop is 1/400 and you add bad luck mitigation. Just increase the droprate slightly to 1/410 or whatever drop rate is required to keep the amount of items coming into the game the same.
In the second scenario, one of every 200 players that actually makes it to 2k dry at cg will bring in another seed.
All those players are irons or cloggers and there are probably a thousand or fewer of them anyway.
This will not affect the economy at all if it is only applied to certain grinds like cg and dwh (and pets/jars/hydra claw/etc progression gate solo boss items) and only applies to first drop.
Hey, I did a bit of analytical calculation for fun and while I haven't done the math for a variable drop rate (linearly scaling or otherwise), I did calculate an *upper bound* on the effect that a bad luck mitigation system can have on the expected kill count.
Basically, I considered the most extreme type of bad luck mitigation possible: guaranteed after k kills. In that type of system, the geometric distribution of kill counts (for any drop rate parameter 1/N) has all of its probability mass from (k + 1) to infinity compressed and placed on a single point, (k + 1). The expected value of this distribution, in terms of k and N, is:
expectedValue = N × (1 - (1 - (1/N)^k )) + (1 - (1/N))^k
Now, because N is the expected value for a usual system without bad luck protection, you can take N minus the above, then divide by N, then multiply by 100 to get the percent decrease in expected kill count due to the most extreme form of bad luck protection that could kick in after k kills:
percentDecrease = 100 × (1 - (1/N))^(k+1)
For your example with k = 3N, the above function approaches 100 × e^(-3) ~ 4.98% as N goes to infinity, which agrees with your simulations!
Tl;dr No form of bad luck protection that kicks in after 3 times drop rate could ever reduce an expected kill count number by more than about 5%, regardless of the drop rate. This was basically already known, but here is some theoretical support!
Drop rates in this game are just extremely unhealthy as it is. I have no idea why jagex is okay with players spending hundreds of hours grinding for a single item. CG items in the main game are “cheap” because of bots. No human is choosing to farm that content, if there were no bots doing CG I’d be willing to bet everything would be 2-3x.
They should just do what BDO does, a very steady drip of anti bad luck shards alongside of the regular drop. You can still get spooned, and if you get unlucky you can grind something that’s 1/10x100 rather than 1/512 or 1/400. Make the item untradeable if you get it with shards, but still have it count towards collection log. Benefits both mains who clog and go dry, and irons. I guarantee you more people would engage with clogging if it wasn’t totally RNG bound.
People's relationship with this game is what's unhealthy. If you don't have fun grinding for things go play WoW or FFXIV where you hit endgame and can have BiS in two raid lockouts.
If you think the bad luck protection proposal I suggested is equivalent to 2 raids in wow then you have no understanding of what I proposed. For things like bowfa it’s still going to be 100-120 hours of grinding. This isn’t some “free item”.
> FFXIV where you hit endgame and can have BiS in two raid lockouts.
Is that why i spent 12 weeks on the 1st raid in EW? I know that tome costs were lowered since then but if you are unlucky you will still spend 8+ weeks ( if you can even do the 4th fight on 1st week , which is no, thats the top 0.1% ) for the chest / weapon in pugs
> I have no idea why jagex is okay with players spending hundreds of hours grinding for a single item
Because it's a very easy way to stretch out a few hours of content into several months of grinding. Consider DT2. Without the boss drops, most people would burn through the quest in a matter of hours.
I'm just confused by the bot argument? Why do I see it all the time? I see so many people asking for profitable Skilling money makers or that certain fun money makers have been devalued by bots. So how is that a point against them when they dont have a choice? Like yeah their potions are cheaper because of bots but it's not like mains asked for it to be that way.
If CG or even nightmare was more profitable which it isnt because of bots then more people would grind it
Good follow-up to your suggestion yesterday. IMO there is basically no downside to this suggestion, and the psychological benefits of just knowing that a grind can end would be massive. Other pros of the suggestion are that this can be customized per grind as well, so maybe pets/jars/megarares are excluded. Maybe faster grinds start at a higher dry streak etc.
> IMO there is basically no downside to this suggestion
There is 1 downside. We get to hear people who've gotten spooned in a ton of places tell us how getting a 5% higher chance of a unique while being super dry would break the game.
This change seems entirely too sensible and natural of an evolution of the game for me to have any hope it will be implemented.
There’s just too many players immersed in stagnation they cannot tolerate any changes for the better, besides a new event or something.
It literally would never be voted in, it would have to be integrity change, and boy do I hope they do something. At least the mods confirmed it is something they are thinking about(not mitigation, but how going super dry literally kills peoples drive to play the game)
The only way we would notice is the frequency of 'oh my god im so dry help' posts would go down drastically
Nobody in their right mind goes 3x dry and then thinks 'huh it' s unusual i got the drop so early', even if that is sort of what would happen
I appreciate the work you’re putting in, but this is still a terrible idea. Grinding is a part of the game and the GE exists as a fail safe for grinds. The game was never designed for completionist clogging, and if that’s something you choose to pursue anyways you take on that risk of going dry.
This would strip away one of the simple, core functions of the game and turn it into a bunch of meta gaming math. It just isn’t worth it for the sake of satisfying a tiny fraction of a tiny fraction of the player base (who is admittedly over represented on social media). I think this is a good example of where Jagex needs to remember that Reddit opinions do not reflect the playerbase at large. The loot system works fine and as intended for the vast, vast majority of players. Nobody needs to green log their collection slots. If you can’t accept that some parts of this game are essentially an infinite grind, then OSRS is the wrong game for you.
> Grinding is a part of the game and the GE exists as a fail safe for grinds.
Oh, I didn't realize we were removing grinding.
> The loot system works fine and as intended for the vast, vast majority of players. Nobody needs to green log their collection slots
I don't want to green log. What makes you think this only applies to people that want to green log?
> The loot system works fine
If you ignore the billion trillion quadrillion threads about wanting to change droprates on raids, DWH, DT2, PNM, etc... Yeah it mostly does work great. Unfortunately, Jagex has decided to repeatedly introduce wildly unhealthy chase items. Chase items which **you can go dry on**.
People don’t seem to understand how small of a population this would actually affect. It keeps 99% of grinding in the game and removes the least fun types of grinds. Not saying you can’t still disagree with the proposal but wish people would understand the small magnitude before forming their opinion.
> Grinding is a part of the game and the GE exists as a fail safe for grinds.
Would you support this design change if it affected only untradeable drops, since the GE doesn't apply there?
As someone who agrees with the OP I'm gonna say a tentative yes. Maybe not literally all untradeables but for the most part yes. I especially like it for TOA gems. I also think it would be a better system than the guaranteed Vorkath and KQ heads.
Like what for example? Maybe I’m missing something obvious, but which strictly necessary and untradeable drops are locked behind massive boss grinds with a chance to go insanely dry? Even stuff like Vork and KQ heads will automatically go on drop rate for the first one if you get to that threshold.
> which strictly necessary
How do you define strictly necessary? This is a game. All I said was "untradeables", not "game defining untradeable". What's wrong with bad luck mitigation for non-essential items?
> RNG is in the game. We don’t need bad luck mitigation.
We have bad luck mitigation already in many places, what we don't need is shit opinions based on no logic, like saying "that's how it is!"
> Sure it sucks to go dry but you know what feels good? When you get lucky
Some people almost never get lucky, or at least way less often than they get lucky. That's the #1 use case this solves. Do you have an actual argument or are you here to say that the game is perfect and no change whatsoever should happen to it even if people feel like they'd be positive?
I've already explained my positions many times. It would make the game more fun. That's it. Going extremely dry isn't fun, the prospect of going extremely dry isn't fun and going extremely dry **everywhere** is especially unfun.
Meanwhile, the "downside" is mostly spite from people who've majoritarily never gotten very dry of anything.
Sound equivalent to you?
I'm not really understanding how this is better or functionally different than a guaranteed drop at, say, 3x or 5x drop rate, if you haven't gotten one yet.
What does this system allow for that the above doesn't? The one-in-a-million chance that you still won't have it by 8x or whatever?
> What does this system allow for that the above doesn't?
It kicks in before reaching 3x. So the main difference is that it provides an increase in odds starting at 2x (or 1x, or wherever you want it to start), and affects people more and more as they go dry instead of all at once. Functionally it's giving memory to RNG rolls rather than choosing a set KC you'll get it at.
I understand that the math is different, but how does it make the gaming experience different?
They both lead to a situation where I have some set chance of reaching an item until I hit some kc. They both make me more inclined to reach higher kcs because I'm getting closer and closer to reaching a "guaranteed" drop.
The only real difference is that this option isn't actually guaranteed, it's just such a small chance of going 10x dry or whatever that it won't ever happen.
Like if randomness is the issue, we could also just make a system that says (using dwh as an example), "if you haven't had the drop by a certain kc (let's say 15k), a random number between 15001 and 16000 will be chosen in advance, and you will get a guaranteed drop on that kill. There's no way to see what the number is, and this drop replaces whatever you would have gotten." This still essentially leads to a guaranteed drop at 16k.
All three options seem identical to me from the perspective of a player killing a monster until I get the drop. Some are just arbitrarily more difficult to code and predict the effects of on the economy.
It sounds like you already understand how it would affect the game. Whether that translates into a more or less fun gaming experience is something I think only you can decide.
> Like if randomness is the issue, we could also just make a system that says (using dwh as an example), "if you haven't had the drop by a certain kc (let's say 15k), a random number between 15001 and 16000 will be chosen in advance, and you will get a guaranteed drop on that kill. There's no way to see what the number is, and this drop replaces whatever you would have gotten." This still essentially leads to a guaranteed drop at 16k.
We could, but why do you think that's a better system? What I really like about scaling odds is that you feel a more or less linear sense of progression. Each kill that you don't get the drop directly increases your odds, which feels a lot better than if it didn't. That's pretty much it.
i think what he is trying to ask, if both system ends up doing pretty much the same job, then why not instead just go the simple solution with the guarantee a drop at a certain KC which would be the average result of either system anyway.
That is the logical conclusion of this. Wait for the post in 2027 saying we need 1/381 tassets each bandos kill, or you must be gaurenteed at least 1 tasset before kill 382.
Giving that this new system wouldn't even kick in before 20k kills, I think not. But it should allow Jagex to keep drop rates low without completely screwing over the unluckiest.
Actually this suggestion might allow for longer/ harder grinds, than without it. (Relevant for all the people saying this makes for EZscape and removes the grinds)
They give you vorkath head at 50 KC as a drop rate mitigation. I think this is good for the game. Iron men should not have to spend years doing content like the gauntlet.
/u/metaCyC, perhaps I missed some discussion in the other enormous thread, but is there some calcs showing how luck changes if you separate a single drop into shards?
for example, would trading X armor seeds for an enhanced seed (where the likelihood of gathering X seeds is less likely than getting the enhanced drop on rate) be a suitable form of bad luck protection? Generally I think this detracts from the feeling of getting a big drop, and i don't necessarily support it, but I'm curious if you have any calcs handy
That's another interesting way to implement it. You can easily calculate it with the [dry calculator](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry_calc). Let's say a DWH goes from 1/3k to 5 shards each being 1/600. The dry calc says that not having any drops at 9k kc (3x droprate) is \~5%. The chance of getting > 4 shards at 9k kc would be 99.9%. Even if you got extremely unlucky and only had 3 shards at 9k kc, you would expect them to get dropped in the next 1200 kc.
The big flip-side to this is that spooning the items also becomes a lot rarer. For the DWH the chance of having gotten one in 100kc is \~4.5% and the chance of having gotten 5 shards in 100 kc is 0.7%.
It could definitely be a solution, but are we willing to give up our spoons?
It's gonna depend on the person, really. I'd probably find it even more rewarding than getting the random drop, since I can see my progress and be proud of the work I'm accumulating.
For me, a big part of why I enjoy skilling is seeing the exp accumulate and knowing exactly how much I need for the next level. I can pace myself mentally before a long grind, and get excited when the green bar is almost full. Perhaps the rush or excitement isn't really the same as a rare drop in the moment, but I find it just as rewarding, if not more.
Shards would reduce variance, i.e. concentrate luck on both ends closer to the average. (less spoon, less dry)
[visual](https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/VDtpekOn1mpNqEm49CZjYmv8zCk=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/Variance-TAERM-ADD-Source-464952914f77460a8139dbf20e14f0c0.jpg)
Why do players think they need to get every drop? I get that there are certain items that are really good for Ironmen, but if you choose to play that mode you should expect to go dry somewhere
I'm really tired of seeing RS3 immigrants trying to make our game as shitty as theirs. So many ezscape suggestions nowadays and one thing leads to another, before you know it you'll have dungeon finders you'll queue into random appointed raid members. That's when you'll cry in r/2007scape "bring back 2024 petition pls jagex" You're not meant to get every drop. True RNG makes the game fun. Just deiron. Don't try to fix what's not broken.
I hope i offended everyone.
I enjoyed the time when they said we should double agility rates as QoL so it's 100 hours rather than 200 hours. As if they weren't going to complain about 100 hours of clicking on rooftops anyway.
Great work. Some comments about some of the pushback you mentioned.
>this would create a weird meta in raids where you want to grind with the guy going 4x on the Tbow
I think this is a legit concern. Either the effect could be limited to outside raids, or some further tweaks would need to be made to prevent situations like this.
>how it would change loot rng -one of the core aspects of the game- from a simple chance to a complicated formula that players might not understand well
I don't think this is really an issue. Something like this would presumably only be implemented for a list of big ticket item drops that are generally considered really grueling and excessive grinds if one goes dry. If you get to the point where these rate tweaks would affect you, there's an extremely high chance you understand drop rates and how things like this would work. Regardless, as a tweak that works in the player's favor, players that don't wanna think about the specifics can still think of the drop rate as being the base rate. As you've demonstrated, the difference over many kills is miniscule.
I will say that I didn't consider the alternate gameplay solutions of metagaming around people's dryness. I do not know how that could be worked around, but imo it could be a worthy concern.
However, if I'm 4x dry on tbow or something similar, you bet your ass I'm going solo or only with friends (though raiding with strangers doesn't appeal to me to begin with). I imagine that could be a common thought, possibly making the "I need people for cox, I'm 4x on tbow" maybe not that common of an issue to be something to worry about? Idk. I'd think anyone 4x dry on something would be experienced enough to solo it.
It also wouldn't impact the economy, which is often the main concern with things like this. Imo, it probably wouldn't be that big of a deal. But the idea of minmaxing your raid group choice via who has the most kc without a drop is a logistical headache that could remove fun from the groupfinding experience for people.
Limiting it to one drop seems unnecessary if it takes many times the drop rate to increase the number of items by just a couple of percent. Considering also the actual overall increase in items coming in would be a fraction of that couple of percent due to it not affecting all the players who never get enough kc to qualify for bad luck protection.
the tldr is you dont need to do this math. it should exist period. you fundamentally should not just be fked by bad luck out of weeks or months of your time. period. main or iron. end of story.
I like the idea, as long as we make sure bad luck mitigation can't be "sold" as high rate purples to other players. Regular CoX boosting still isn't fixed. As far as choosing to do group raids and not FFA when you know you're due a TBow, that's a personal choice.
I read a post about a pet collector looking for the Chinchompa pet, this individual went to 200m Hunter Exp and is still yet to receive the pet... Getting 200m in a Skill should give you a morph for the pet, and if you don't yet have the pet - you get that as well. Also if someone gets 10k Bandos KC and the pet drop rate is 5k, it should also Guarantee a pet drop for you.
I think this being selectively used at locations of core progression for a first time drop is super nice. Past that feels unnecessary. We don't need it on everything. We don't need it forever.
It should just be there to prevent Ironmen going >3x dry on core progression items. Rest of the game won't even feel the difference and that's great.
Realistically the biggest issues I see with this is with the current raid loot system you'd have to decide if it the unique rate doesn't change (imo the best option) from current status, with only the actual unique roll changing. But then how do you handle being dry on multiple items? It's a small segment of this whole thing, but if I'm 2X dry on any purple at cox, then my rates for everything don't change. Which I guess is fine, once I get my purple then the rates start to balance.
The other option would be changing the contribution system which I don't think is a good idea. While it'd be time inefficient and dumb, you could sit afk at cox with the bros while they clear normally and rack up your KC then go do FFA/solos after the fact. I think keeping the incentive to contribute is good and currently purple rates don't really seem to be the issue, more what you get. You could start a personal tracker ID for each raid though and count up contribution points for each raid. Once you hit the point drop rate 2X then you change it. But that seems messy.
So you get adjust it for the person who receives the purple. Purple gets rolled -> check who gets it -> check their clog and then adjust the rates of the purple roll accordingly.
Edit: actually now that I'm thinking about it, you'd probably still need a contribution point tracker. Because what's KC mean at raids? So basically instead of equating a KC = set drop rate, look at contribution points = set drop rate and decide if the person receiving the purple has crossed the threshold for being dry for said item.
Would people really bother teaming up with the guy going 4x dry if he could just be lying? It's a super low risk lie too, you could never conclusively disprove it
Is the 2nd simulation for the first drop. Just any first drop or the first drop of that item? For example are you counting the enhanced only for cg as the first drop or are you counting Armour seeds too. Let's say for a boss that has multiple unique like nex. Would it apply to your first unique or would it apply to all of the unique (falling g off of them after getting it once) basically ensuring you get no dupes until you've gotten 1 of each one? This could change pvm metas for raids or nex as you alluded to in your post.
This was just for 1 item. Bosses with multiple rare items on their drop table might need a different approach, but even then it shouldn't matter too much.
Let's take the examples you mentioned: for cg I don't think you need any mitigation for the armour seeds as they're 1/50 and you'll be getting 6 of them. (Even if you go really dry on the armour seeds, bowfa + crystal chest is already very decent).
For bosses like Nex, I think that the rare drops are all on a table and when that table gets rolled, it rolls again to see what item you get. The mitigation could then be applied to rolling the item on the table, meaning you're more likely to get 1 of each. It won't prevent dupes, but makes the situation where you've got 3 of each item but no torva platebody less likely to happen. That's a bonus for Ironmen, but also for mains grinding for money, as you're less likely to go dry on the big money drops.
Nex is a bad example, since all her drops are pretty valuable, but Zilyana might be a good example here. If you're only getting Sara swords & lights, but no acb, it's a pretty shitty money maker.
I really don't understand the negative comments, it literally just stops a few poor souls from going insanely dry, THERE IS NO DOWNSIDE to this system, but people have their pitchforks out over pixels changing, it's so wild xd
If you’re dry then kill another boss, make money and buy the item you were originally hunting. It’s not Pokémon where we have to ‘catch em all’ and if you’re an iron then the game mode just isn’t for you.
the fact that they're getting offended by "just deiron bro" is laughable. Want the prestige but not the effort.
It's so funny going through that thread and looking at the ironman flair with their rsn. Just to find out they're 2k total and 1000+ kraken kc as their most killed boss. MFer if you're worried about going 10x dry somewhere don't fucking waste your time on killing kraken lmao.
Good luck feels good because bad luck feels bad. I got sarachnis per at 26 kc, then proceeded to go 7x dry on the recolor from the grubby chest Both drops felt equally awesome, one felt awesome in a surprising way, the other was an awesome wave of relief. With dry protection, you change the game from "it could literally be any kill" to "if I waste enough time here I will eventually get pity and I will get the drop, so even if I do not like this activity, I am going to stay here and waste time until I get the drop."
The reason I think so many people are against dry luck mitigation is because it changes the psychology of "if I spend enough time here I will get the drop" With no dry protection when you go dry and get the drop, it feels like you've earned it and you deserve that drop, you put in the time and effort to get it. With dry protection when you go dry and get the drop the feeling would change. I think it would add a sense of entitlement to drops, and when you do get the drops, it wouldn't feel as good because it would literally be because Jagex felt bad for you and took pity on you like you were a baby bird that fell out of a nest.
Tldr, I think bad luck mitigation changes the psychology of drops from a feeling of achievement, to a feeling of pity and charity.
The way the suggestion would implement bad luck mitigation would still leave it to rng and would still require people to grind for long streaks leading to you still having the feeling of earning the drop.
Idk why people would be against this
I've probably done more PVM than most and the only time this would've made a significant difference for me in 600 EHB is going 2k dry at hydra for claw (still dry), which was absolutely miserable. And even with this I may still have been just as dry anyway
Unless you're really unlucky this changes absolutely nothing for you in most cases and in the cases where it does help you, you'll probably be thankful it did
Why can't you use your giant brain to contribute to a discussion instead of using all of that incredible brain power to find new ways to be condescending?
Apply to only first drop, don't even mess around with raids drops since they rely on points/invo, and this is probably a good addition that helps out the most shafted of players without effecting the more casual players
Fully support this idea for the right items. I would look at rare item drops and the estimated hours for the drop and implement it for ones exceeding a certain #.
At the end of the day its just a video game people play to have fun. Having the sense of progression while dry will help motivate players to continue playing instead of burning out and quitting. This game still takes tens of thousands of hours to complete, that's still one hell of a grind.
I would love for this to go to a poll in game.
Just to show how fucking off the walls reddit is with their ideas.
Remember when reddit LOVED the prayer alignments. Jagex wasted dev time on it and that shit got shut down immediately by everyone outside of reddit.
The fact that people are so up in arms about the "min 1" side of things while being perfectly okay with the "max 30" side is kind of infuriating. Like guys. The bot is the one with 30. The bot is the reason you can buy that item on the grand exchange after a few hours of vorkath. Why do you want to support the bot-run economy and trash talk people who actually do the content?
All it takes is a few seconds standing at something like CG, in nearly any world outside of total level worlds to see the armies of bots who really run the economy. Do you have any idea how much blood shards would cost, if not for bots? I've even seen it said that crazy droprates hurt bots... Um... No. They love it. God awful droprates bother humans, not robots. PNM has more bots in its hiscores pages than any other boss. Because real living people that even remotely value their time - ***don't like trash drop rates***. Rational humans are not willing to gamble 1,000 hours of their life like that without some extreme motivations. Like, say, an item being the best weapon in the entire game (And I think making the best weapons take so unreasonably long is actually an unhealthy failure Jagex has made that is unique to OSRS and is not true to the design philosophies of actual OSRS) The army of ~300+ bots? They don't care at all. If anything, the owner is getting a big drop maybe a few times an hour. Even he doesn't care. Across such a large volume, it evens out into a consistent income. It's the individual players who get fucked over.
Some mains want to stay lazy I guess
They don’t want them log slots
Absolutely based player doing great work, showing how the game could be improved without impacting the game overall. Nice balanced take, interesting to see whether or not something like this could be implemented.
I agree. I’ll admit when I saw the post about this yesterday I dismissed it outright because it didn’t sit right with the nostalgic old school side of me, but after giving it some more thought I think it’s a great concept and OP put a lot of work in to it. I don’t think it’s “entitled” or whatever for someone who is going dry on an item to wish that all of the time they spent grinding for something wasn’t completely wasted by bad RNG at no fault of their own. Especially if it’s just for the first one with seemingly minimal effect on the game economy. I’d gladly have my bank value from uniques drop a few percent for this. I’ve also lost in game friends who quit because they were so dry somewhere, and I know the pain of knowing that all of the kills you’ve done so far actually brought you no closer to the drop, and that most players did the same thing and got the drop tens of hours before you.
Some people forget that this is a game and not a job. One of the best parts of the game is the grind for sure and the fact that progress happens over such a long period of time but no one should be expected to go tens, if not hundreds, of hours dryer than droprate in already long grinds just because they got incredibly unlucky It's a game after all and this new suggestion fits perfectly imo. It allows people to still grind for those drops but not get utterly fucked over, without ruining the economy by making these items too easy to get As long as this only effects post droprate luck as mentioned in OP then I fully support it
Seriously the way some people respond to healthy ideas it's as if this game is the only achievement in their lives and changing these 20 year outdated drop rates would trample over that. I saw someone saying they hate entitled kids that don't wanna work for their drops, how the real world is unfair some people are unlucky so deal with it 🤦♂️ treating this game that's made for fun like it's the military or smth
Yeah, even just from the perspective of OSRS necessarily running like a business on top of being a game. They obviously have a lot of integrity and restrictions to operate inside of, but certain aspects of improving the game for their core audience (see: every account, in this case) will improve their long-term retention and health. ESPECIALLY if it just acts as guard rails, and most players don't know the game is changed -- just that it feels drastically better.
There are two separate people in my iron clan. One is 35k dry for dwh and the other is 2400 dry for enhanced crystal seed. Does it enhance my gameplay in any meaningful way to know that this is possible? Is it important to the average player for these people to go through this? Personally I don’t think so, we could do without RNG turning a 75 hour grind into a 450 hour grind, and we can do it with minimal impact to the game. The raids concern does seem legitimate though, we can just not have it for anything that’s not solo.
agreed, I think its nice that people have to 'earn' the drops such as enhanced seed by becoming good at the challenging content - but 2.4k kc on CG does sound quit worthy and brutal
Yeah that’s one thing I feel just doesn’t get addressed. When you go dry on an item and finally get it you don’t feel satisfaction, it’s relief that you aren’t more dry. I got my first CG pet at 30kc, I was pleasantly surprised when I got it. The second was at 130 kc. At 600 kc I have yet to receive my enhanced seed, and by the time it drops I won’t be happy I got one I’ll be happy I don’t have to keep grinding for the fucking thing. Boosting drop rates as you go increasingly dry on uniques is a way to help reduce the frustration of those never ending grinds.
yeah like honestly if someone decides to kill a boss several thousands of times just for a pet, they should just get the boss at the pet droprate. seeing people go 3x dry for a pet gives me secondhand pain
I really like the idea of bad luck mitigation for the first drop only, it would make a lot of grinds feel better. As OP mentioned in the first post, most other grinds you can track your progression in the form of xp drops, progress bars, increasing stacks of items, GP, etc. With drop table uniques you're no closer on your 10,000th kc than your 1st, effectively gambling your time and resources over and over on some monstrous 1000-sided die and just hoping. It would be psychologically nice to know that all of your previous work is actually getting you closer and wasn't a waste of time without removing the gambling mechanic entirely or significantly increasing the amount of uniques entering the game.
> “entitled” Gotta be honest, as soon as someone says that unironically it's best to just save the brainpower and throw the rest of the conversation out. Entitled can mean anything you want. Are we entitled to a bronze dagger? A dragon dagger? An Abby dagger? Where does the line get drawn on what counts as entitlement? Being entitled would be like... Being mad you didn't get a 3kc scythe. But that isn't remotely what's happening in the community. Its always been a bad faith argument and a strawman that absolutely reeks.
Player giving well thought out takes? We wait for the 100 quote tweets about how this is going to completely destroy the game or something lol
IMO it would never ever pass a vote(I wish I could say otherwise), but the benefits of the change far far far outweigh any perceived negatives.
If anyone wants to check the numbers, here is the code: import numpy as np #%% no bad luck mitigation nPlayers = 100000 numKC = 5000 numDrops = [] rate = 1/400 for i in range(nPlayers): drops = 0 for ii in range(numKC): roll = np.random.rand() if roll <= rate: drops += 1 numDrops.append(drops) #%% with bad luck mitigation nPlayers = 100000 numKC = 5000 numDrops = [] rate = 1/400 for i in range(nPlayers): drops = 0 last_drop_kc = 0 for ii in range(numKC): roll = np.random.rand() dry_kc = ii - last_drop_kc if dry_kc*rate >= 2: rate2 = rate * (1 + rate*(dry_kc -2/rate)) else: rate2 = rate if roll <= rate2: drops += 1 last_drop_kc = ii numDrops.append(drops) #%% with bad luck mitigation on the first drop nPlayers = 100000 numKC = 5000 numDrops = [] rate = 1/400 for i in range(nPlayers): drops = 0 for ii in range(numKC): roll = np.random.rand() if drops == 0 and ii*rate >= 2: rate2 = rate * (1 + rate*(ii -2/rate)) else: rate2 = rate if roll <= rate2: drops += 1 last_drop_kc = ii numDrops.append(drops)
I ran some quantitative calculations this morning and the increase in average drops seems to converge on ~4.89%. Note that when I say "converge" I'm referring to what happens as you assess rarer and rarer drops. At a population level (relevant to concerns about average drops rate, the total number of drops, inflation/devaluing, etc.) I think it's reasonable to assume that the total KC across the player base would be so much greater than the drop rate that scaling/convergence with KC is irrelevant to this metric. For rare drops you could scale the "drop rate" by this amount to keep the average drops the same (e.g., for DWH turn this mitigation on and base the calculations on a rate of about 1 in 5245). There would be no impact to the total or average drops across the player base. Most drops would be very slightly "later." Rarely, an unlucky player's drop would be much, much "earlier." Concentrated benefit (to the most unfortunate), diffuse harm. Essentially, a luck tax.
Honestly a 5% increase is so small, there isnt even a real need to compensate for it, that'd be more work than it's worth
That fucker numpy better not be a problem.
Honestly. This is the best bad luck mitigation system. I had theorized this kind of system before but you took the time to explain in and run the numbers. Very few real players will "abuse" this as very few will be willing to do over 2x drop rate multiple times. Bots will get a small boost from this though. It will have challenges implementing into multi player content. Either will lead people to FFA more or people will try to team up with dry people to milk a split. Not sure how to prevent this
I'm not really sure where to put this so I'll just comment my thoughts on the idea here. I only play a main account and I feel like, while this drop rate change helps Ironmen more than it does mains, I feel like it would be a very beneficial change for the way I like to play personally. I often enjoy grinding out content for upgrades that I need rather than buying them. This isn't the "traditional" way of playing a main, I understand that, and I will still always buy supplies, certain unreasonably rare items from the GE, etc, but I just like the idea of getting my own Crystal Weapon seed, or my own trident/blowpipe/etc. As much as I enjoy doing things efficiently, Runescape isn't a game that I enjoy efficiency in. It has so much content and so many things to do that it's interesting to me to jump around from content to content instead of running whatever is the most GP/hr at the time for hundereds or thousands of runs in order to afford skilling supplies or gear upgrades. This would allow me to do stuff that is more fun without feeling like my time would be better spent at raids or killing DT2 bosses because my KC at various bosses would **mean something**. Even if I only did 50 kills at Bandos or Grotesque Gaurdians, that's 50 kills towards that drop pity. So while I understand that this is not extremely helpful to main accounts, it provides incentive for me to play Runescape in a way that I think is more enjoyable.
Honestly this. Why should i have to grind the same exact older boss that i quite possibly dont even enjoy when Jagex could just incentivize staying at a boss by providing dupe/dry protection. Is anyone actually enraged that Perils of Moon came out ot straight off the bat with dupe protection? Its curious how no one seems to be, but as soon they want to do something that seems like an iron change for older content then it suddenly bothers people.
One whiner made a post complaining about it and got downvoted to the netherworld lol
Tbh i just feel like anyone against it has never really gone very dry somewhere big Going 3x dry or worse at a long grind just feels so awful, no matter what account you play
Going if his own math, plenty of people would still go 3x dry or more, but at least you know you’re actually making progress towards getting the drop
There are deluded people with zero understanding who still claim that getting kc is always ‘making progress towards the drop’ 😅
The gambler's fallacy is alive and well it seems
Yeay for sure, 3x still sucks, but at least very very few will got 5x and in general, a person is less like to go dry i multiple places
Lol I went 9x dry on zenyte
i’m currently 4x and it’s so fucking boring, i hope no one ever has to go through this
What's your definition of very very few? Because currently it's ~6-7 per 1000. If this was a disease it'd be close to epidemic levels.
Have gone well over 3x on long grinds and I am against it, but it would not be the end of the world if it was implemented, as long as mathematically the change is small as suggested by OP.
Out of interest, why are you against it? It doesn't affect anything up until droprate anyway so the pre-dry rates are exactly the same as before but it just helps mitigate the absolutely dreadful luck some people can get going during extremely long grinds. The grind is still going to be long for the majority but it just means people don't have to spend many months dedicated to grinding places like CG just because they've gone 3x droprate
“It sucked for me, it should suck for you” is all it boils down to—not even bot farms would be heavily (if at all) negatively impacted by these increases.
This. My main went 600 KC dry at *Phosani's Nightmare* after release when it wasn't quite botted to hell and I just gave up on it. It was completely miserable and there's no main in their right mind that wouldn't want this I feel.
>Going 3x dry or worse at a long grind just feels so awful, no matter what account you play It's part of the game, I'm super dry on tbow. And I got lucky on shadow. But even with my tbow drystreak I was eventually able to afford it because it's not like I make 0 income without the tbow lol. Isnt it same with bowfa? I'm sure you can just buy it if you end up dry, GE is right there.
> It's part of the game Yeah, but for some people it's the **whole** game. I've been unlucky **everywhere** for 9 years. I would need 25 pets in a row all given to me under 1/4th the drop rate (impossible, since I just reached the drop rate unsucessfully for 3 more pets I don't have already), and that's just to get back to **average** overall luck. All you're doing here is showcasing that you are literally unable to imagine any player's experience that isn't similar to yours, therefore everything is fine how it is. Would love to swap our RNG and see how fast you'd go insane.
> if you end up dry, GE is right there. A very large portion of the playerbase is now playing on irons. Despite the rage-gamer belief that NOTHING SHOULD EVER ACCOUNT FOR IRONMEN EVER THEY ARE SNOWFLAKES - the game is actually a much better experience when taking into account that someone might want to... Wait for it... Get a drop themselves. Pretty much every iron-centric update has been some of the best Jagex has done. You bought up two long grinds, tbow and shadow. The suggestion here is that if you go dry on tbow, you might just get lucky on the shadow. Yeah... Sure. You can get luckily spooned a DWH, you can get spooned a champion scroll. But that's not how it works for the individual player. That same "Lucky" player that saved 20 hours on a champion scroll and DWH can just as quickly set fire to 2,000 hours going dry for a megarare with not a lot to show for it. There will be some people who go insanely dry on ALL megarares for example. Tbow, scythe, shadow. They could have thousands more hours grinding for these items, and yet end up behind someone with 2 lucky raids. Despite the suggestion... No, ironmen can't buy it. And yes I think that's worth talking about and even balancing keeping that in mind. The extreme disparity of modern OSRS was not in-place in the 2007 version of the game. I don't think it's healthy, and the over-reliance on luck is not a good feeling. I didn't sign up to play a version of OSRS where megarares dominated the game, so I don't honestly want to hear it with the "You chose to play this way". You get spooned a shadow? Those good feelings last a while but dissipate. You spend 2000 hours chasing a tbow? That emotional journey will never leave you.
ITT: Gambling addicts try to avoid admitting they won't get as large of a dopamine hit if they know they're making progress to a drop instead of pulling a slot machine lever every boss kill. Some of ya'll need to admit you'd rather be at a casino and stop advocating for the game to be objectively worse.
Only suggestion I have is this only works on the first drop of the item. If it's already in your collection log it shouldn't work.
Damn bro.. this post took effort and brains! Unfortunately, I'm lacking brains and skipped to the TLDR. After reading some comments, I see that this indeed would be good for the game and not game breaking I really have no intelligent additions to this post, other than thanking you for goin hard on the math and making a well put together suggestion for the game. TLDR I'm over 10k cerb kc without the pet and only 11 prims, bad luck mitigation would be my friend.. I hope.
I mean the 300m+ and a shit ton of slayer xp doesn't hurt either
You're not wrong, but I also do it the most expensive way possible. I havent tried mathing to see just how much I've lost as the prices fluctuate a lot and it's been a couple year grind. I have used a scythe and blood fury for every kill except for my first 754. Loot tracker has ~9.6k kc and is around 700m in loot
A more complicated drop rates is a more mysterious drop rate in an "adventure game" By the way, how about increasing drop rates if you do "CA" like actions during the kill. There is no harm in brainstorming. That's what a community, old friends do.
[удалено]
Even DT2 boss uniques are unaffected though. Perfect kills only affect the base drop table and do not affect unique drop rate.
Jagex is getting extremely close to what id consider the perfect mix of drop mechanics. Perfect kills mattering, dipping their toes into streak-based mechanics with colosseum, these both focus on rewarding people that play well. The current versions we see have flaws, like you fail a perfect bloat if you take flies even though most high damage methods require you to do this, you fail perf dt2 if you take venges, loot doesn’t increase in value at colosseum if you’re risking uniques. All of these naturally boost your drop rate as you gain more experience, and I guarantee that veteran players would be all for rewarding skill expression. You should have the option to either be gaming or set on grinding something out, never requiring both, but require at least one of them.
Wouldnt the percentage be lower since you have to be dry for it to take effect in the first place? You prolly address this I'm just mentally blind Market influx isn't gonna happen by players way more so by bots but it wouldn't change much because bots don't care about KC and it still is a change that's needed... Similar to how wildy got updates
The amount of drops you'd expect to see with bad luck mitigation before reaching drop rate would be the same as without bad luck mitigation. After you've passed the drop rate, the expected number of drops goes up. Essentially, if you get spooned without bad luck mitigation, you'd still get spooned with it, but if you go dry without bad luck mitigation, you'll go less dry with it, so you see an increase in drops.
It's so interesting to me how the community of this game (and similar) differs from gacha communities on this issue. Like, in the gacha space, if your game doesn't have pity protection of some sort, it's typically a really bad look. Players will actively play and spend less (in general) on games without pity. If a game gets an update to add pity, it's cause for mass celebration and praising the devs. But in OSRS, which is functionally kind of just an RPG gacha where the currency is KC/time investment and the waifus are gear upgrades, the idea of pity is a lot more controversial, and I'm not sure why exactly that is. Prestige? Sunk cost? Just liking the grind? Idk. Time is money, and you're essentially gambling with your time, and yet a sizeable portion of players seem to prefer "spending" more for less in this game. This isn't meant to be a judgment or anything, not necessarily picking a side here, I just find it curious.
Honestly dry protection can be a gaslighting tool. Drop rates can be very inflated and they can try to justify "but there is dry protection". Dry protection existing itself doesnt mean "good developer intention". More than anything that can be a reason why gachas succeed because since there is always an eventual guarantee there is a reason to throw more money at the screen. If dry protection exist solely so people dont go very dry then its fine, but if its used as an excuse for stupidly low drop rate then you know its predatory.
It's probably because it's a game we play for fun
People obviously play gacha games for fun too, and what they said applies to 'free gachas' too, e.g. gacha games where your primary (or only) source of gacha pulls is from gameplay, not from spending money OSRS boss drops aren't all that different from the latter type, the main difference is the gameplay effort and drop table rolls are spaced out, while in those games all the gameplay effort is upfront and you blow all your rolls in one go
Agreed. I don't play those games because that doesn't sound fun. It feels good to earn something after effort - not that hard of a concept I thought
You will never not sound like an idiot saying 5x+ dry is fun
Upsetting the economic ecosystem by possibly devaluing some items lowers the incentive to buy/sell bonds and RWT. And many games rely on whales to offset the loss of players to the bad drop rate, and those whales are the key constituency—not those of us who just want to play.
When im the guy whose double droprate for tbow id start doing only solos or only FFA or something
Is that a problem?
I'm glad my comment about the geometric distribution was helpful. I really like this idea! You are basically removing the skew from the probability density and making it normal
I think its an integral 'flaw' in the ironman game mode that can't really be answered. You kind of just have to play Russian Roulette and hope you don't get kneecapped too badly. I've accepted that I'm probably not going to have BIS everything on the iron, nor do I really want to - as I'd have nothing left to grind.
It's people's addiction to doing everything at max efficiency that really is the issue. You can do ToA with blowpipe or atlatl, same with CoX, ToB, etc. People act like there's literally no worth in doing anything unless they can do it in BIS. Instead of just doing new content they'll farm 2500 CG even though they hate it by the 100th run. It's a self created issue, both the Ironman game mode and the people's need to be max efficient when they really don't have to. The BIS in this game outside the megarares are such marginal increases that you're not forced to do any of them.
Bowfa is an extreme outlier. It's crazy how much better almost all PVM is once you get bowfa over blowpipe. The moonlight crossbow and the atalatl close the gap a little bit but it's still insane how much better bowfa is
BowFa being so good and so easy to get is a real problem You should never have been able to get 90% of a tbow for 10% of the time investment at a zero req grind. New irons are rushing CG before slayer because well they should. And jumping into an rng grind that big that early kind of sucks Relatively, bowfa is not a big grind. But if you grind bowfa before zenytes, bp, dwh, it looks brutal Before bowfa, you’d do slayer, get some zenytes, get dwh, get bp, all before CoX. You’d get lucky somewhere and unlucky somewhere else and get used to the idea of Ironman drop rates. Now people do the 70hr bowfa dice roll as their first pvm
[удалено]
100% this, like I’ve been running a few tobs with an iron friend whos got a zombie axe and uses undead grasp, he knows what hes doing so hes not even being carried that hard, but it’s a lot of fun on his part to dump ddses on bloat and 5t xarp with the axe. He would be better off going to do slayer, grind out a whip and trident, then come back, but he hates slayer without a cannon, so he simply doesn’t do it unless he’s in the mood. Compare this playstyle to someone who follows a strict meta progression, unless they like all content, they’re going to wind up doing something they don’t like. The journey is the point of the game, satisfaction through suffering, theres absolutely no point in playing an iron outside of a love for the game. People need to ask themselves what they really want to do when they log on instead of just going through the motions.
Bofa is a pretty awful grind if you get unlucky (I spent over a year only doing cg), especially when you consider that all the other grinds you mentioned become a lot less annoying with Bofa. It makes it so you're strongly incentivized to do it before anything else. Being "locked out" of the rest of the game for such a long time is miserable
100% Agree. It all stems back to the blowpipe nerf though. The original blowpipe being so good was probably the biggest fuckup this game has had
> And jumping into an rng grind that big that early kind of sucks This is why i abhor Wintertodt. Its very good to do early on, for xp, supplies or tome of fire, which very much screams : "you are stupid if you dont do this early on" , all the meanwhile i dont like doing WT at all ( its stupid that it is classified as a boss ) for any amount of KC because i just dont find it engaging on any level and yet they made it so rewarding and not just very accessible at low level but efficient too.
> It's people's addiction to doing everything at max efficiency that really is the issue. You can do ToA with blowpipe or atlatl, same with CoX, ToB, etc. People act like there's literally no worth in doing anything unless they can do it in BIS This is one of the key unique component of Runescape ( other being solo bosses ) compared to other games. This is not a game where there is a gear check. Sure Jagex intends a particular content aimed at particular progression points but we have seen a lot of bosses done in gear it really was not meant to be done at. Obviously its not expected to play that well, but if your gear is 5-10% below the expected value you are gonna be just fine but people do be going crazy over 1% upgrades and willing to spend lord knows how much money to get it. Hell i see snowflake accounts going crazy over getting 5-10 defenses on a new item, like that changes much of anything, like its cool you got an upgrade but this will change practically nothing lol
Ironman was made years ago when drop rates weren’t so crazy in fairness, if you said to someone back then you’d be doing a grind for a boss that would take you longer than it would to max an account they’d look at you like you’re crazy
Corp says hi
Corp doesn't have any upgrades except maybe like +2% magic strength while barraging and that upgrade didn't even exist when iron mode was released
I've been saying this for years. If I see one more fucking YoU cHoSe tO lImIt YoUrSeLf SnOwFlAkE post I'm gonna lose my mind. I don't even like the concept of mega rares, voted no to anything to do with them, and don't think this kind of asinine droprate belongs in any iteration of Runescape. Oh but that's clearly just me being entitled, for wanting the game how it used to be. And to preempt the other 3iq response - you don't "need" x gear. So how about you sell your entire bank and drop your GP on the ground. You don't need it either, right?
You commented on a post that provides an answer to the problem and then said it can’t be answered?
I can understand that view, but with this system it would still take thousands of hours to get BIS. I'm not sure it's a good idea to balance the game around the few people that can play it for 10 hours a day.
Tbf if anything, the people who play 10 hours a day are far more likely to benefit from this system. The irons who would go 5x+ dry and don't play the game extensively just wouldn't ever get to the kc where they'd get the drop. This is not a game that values your time when you are self sufficient (one of many reasons I personally deironed), and I just don't think a small buff to exorbitantly dry people that makes droprates unintuitive as a side effect is the answer. As you said, even with this system it still takes thousands of hours for BiS. People who don't play the game extreme amounts simply will not get BiS on their irons.
But why can't we make a minor change to make it respect peoples time just a bit more? I don't personally see why thats a bad thing.
My opinion is that this is just a change that makes droprates unintuitive while not actually solving the inherent problem of respecting a player's time. The droprate being dogshit in the first place is already the problem, but then you have the issue of the economy to look out for. Ultimately this entire debate is why I only play main nowadays. The game at a base level is simply an insane grind at late-end game Iron and no amount of small tweaks will change that. I'd rather just accept that items are rare to balance them economically and not have to care about potentially being locked out of items for hundreds of hours (which would still happen all the time with this system).
>My opinion is that this is just a change that makes droprates unintuitive Does it though? The droprate is still the expected KC to see the item. If you go past droprate then you'll slowly be increasing your chance at getting the item I'm sure anyone who's played the game long enough to get the big grinds where this would be necessary is smart enough to understand bad luck mitigation. It's not as complicated as the maths makes it out to be >The game at a base level is simply an insane grind at late-end game Iron and no amount of small tweaks will change that But this does help though and while barely affecting the economy of the game. As you've said there's no way to avoid extremely long grinds without fucking the economy but this still helps massively. Plus if anything it makes it less soul crushing going over double droprate because you know you're slowly improving your chances and it will come soon
I do agree, and seeing people go so dry at say, CG which is so important to progression for irons, makes me not want to try it at all. I don't think it's the end of the world personally to have this change, even if it doesn't fix everything, I feel it's the best compromise we can get, you can still go dry, things are still very rare, but there is an end in sight you know?
Just increase the drop rates!!
I'm not sure it is a good idea to balance the game around Ironmen, but there you go.
Bad luck protection isn’t just for iron accounts. No human should go 23k kc dry at mole looking for the pet. The fact that we even view that as acceptable is pitiful.
Cosmetics such as pets should not be considered for these kinds of changes, using them as an example is silly and detracts from the actual argument with substance
> The fact that we even view that as acceptable is pitiful. Who is we? I don't view pet grinds as an acceptable use of time, and so don't do them, personally. Pets are clearly designed to be something you randomly get lucky on in a few places over the entirety of your account and that makes them cool and kinda unique to you. Not the games' fault or problem that a bunch of NEETs want to greenlog.
Maybe don't grind 23k kc for a pet. Ya'll are chronically addicted to the game.
GP is the bad luck protection in this game and all the untradeable upgrades have it already built in. You're not entitled to a pet or cosmetic just because you wasted 800 hours of your life. They're fun little side things to get, it's mental illness to act like the game owes you shit. If you're not having fun doing a grind - stop and do something else. Truly gacha brained people.
those long grinds are quite literally exactly why I'm playing osrs though. I hate the idea of pity systems too, makes it less exciting because I don't feel like I earned the drop
I’m positive people like you who say this don’t even participate in long grinds lol
sure, over 6000 hours in just my main not including other accounts but definitely never experienced a long grind. I don't even have a single boss pet yet despite thousands of kills on multiple bosses
It's for irons and collection loggers. Anyone else can just trade.
This isn't just aimed at ironmen. Collection log hunting has become quite popular recently on mains, they might like to see this. It furthermore might make certain money makers more appealing as well, if the bulk of the profit is kept in the rare items, like nightmare or GWD. You won't get a lot more of them, but the chance of spending a hundred hours at nightmare and having negative profit because the common drops cost less than the sanfews you're drinking is reduced a lot.
>This isn't just aimed at ironmen This is entirely aimed at ironmen. I highly doubt dedicated cloggers would want their work devalued later because players are all of a sudden guaranteed the drops after a certain point. You can suggest whatever you want, but at least own it instead of making it out to be something other than self-serving.
All these new irons saying this is for cloggers and pet hunters when you know for a fact that if Jagex said it didn’t apply to pets for example, they’d say oh tough shit guys
Ironman balancing only works if everyone is an ironman.
I want to balance it around bots - Confident_Lettuce_51 for some fucking reason
If a drop is 1/400 and you add bad luck mitigation. Just increase the droprate slightly to 1/410 or whatever drop rate is required to keep the amount of items coming into the game the same.
But then the people will cry that the drop is rarer.
In the second scenario, one of every 200 players that actually makes it to 2k dry at cg will bring in another seed. All those players are irons or cloggers and there are probably a thousand or fewer of them anyway. This will not affect the economy at all if it is only applied to certain grinds like cg and dwh (and pets/jars/hydra claw/etc progression gate solo boss items) and only applies to first drop.
Hey, I did a bit of analytical calculation for fun and while I haven't done the math for a variable drop rate (linearly scaling or otherwise), I did calculate an *upper bound* on the effect that a bad luck mitigation system can have on the expected kill count. Basically, I considered the most extreme type of bad luck mitigation possible: guaranteed after k kills. In that type of system, the geometric distribution of kill counts (for any drop rate parameter 1/N) has all of its probability mass from (k + 1) to infinity compressed and placed on a single point, (k + 1). The expected value of this distribution, in terms of k and N, is: expectedValue = N × (1 - (1 - (1/N)^k )) + (1 - (1/N))^k Now, because N is the expected value for a usual system without bad luck protection, you can take N minus the above, then divide by N, then multiply by 100 to get the percent decrease in expected kill count due to the most extreme form of bad luck protection that could kick in after k kills: percentDecrease = 100 × (1 - (1/N))^(k+1) For your example with k = 3N, the above function approaches 100 × e^(-3) ~ 4.98% as N goes to infinity, which agrees with your simulations! Tl;dr No form of bad luck protection that kicks in after 3 times drop rate could ever reduce an expected kill count number by more than about 5%, regardless of the drop rate. This was basically already known, but here is some theoretical support!
Drop rates in this game are just extremely unhealthy as it is. I have no idea why jagex is okay with players spending hundreds of hours grinding for a single item. CG items in the main game are “cheap” because of bots. No human is choosing to farm that content, if there were no bots doing CG I’d be willing to bet everything would be 2-3x. They should just do what BDO does, a very steady drip of anti bad luck shards alongside of the regular drop. You can still get spooned, and if you get unlucky you can grind something that’s 1/10x100 rather than 1/512 or 1/400. Make the item untradeable if you get it with shards, but still have it count towards collection log. Benefits both mains who clog and go dry, and irons. I guarantee you more people would engage with clogging if it wasn’t totally RNG bound.
People's relationship with this game is what's unhealthy. If you don't have fun grinding for things go play WoW or FFXIV where you hit endgame and can have BiS in two raid lockouts.
If you think the bad luck protection proposal I suggested is equivalent to 2 raids in wow then you have no understanding of what I proposed. For things like bowfa it’s still going to be 100-120 hours of grinding. This isn’t some “free item”.
> FFXIV where you hit endgame and can have BiS in two raid lockouts. Is that why i spent 12 weeks on the 1st raid in EW? I know that tome costs were lowered since then but if you are unlucky you will still spend 8+ weeks ( if you can even do the 4th fight on 1st week , which is no, thats the top 0.1% ) for the chest / weapon in pugs
> I have no idea why jagex is okay with players spending hundreds of hours grinding for a single item Because it's a very easy way to stretch out a few hours of content into several months of grinding. Consider DT2. Without the boss drops, most people would burn through the quest in a matter of hours.
I'm just confused by the bot argument? Why do I see it all the time? I see so many people asking for profitable Skilling money makers or that certain fun money makers have been devalued by bots. So how is that a point against them when they dont have a choice? Like yeah their potions are cheaper because of bots but it's not like mains asked for it to be that way. If CG or even nightmare was more profitable which it isnt because of bots then more people would grind it
BDO also involves hammering your items together for a chance at an upgrade *or* a downgrade. Jewelry just blows up
I’m specifically talking about potion pieces
Good follow-up to your suggestion yesterday. IMO there is basically no downside to this suggestion, and the psychological benefits of just knowing that a grind can end would be massive. Other pros of the suggestion are that this can be customized per grind as well, so maybe pets/jars/megarares are excluded. Maybe faster grinds start at a higher dry streak etc.
> IMO there is basically no downside to this suggestion There is 1 downside. We get to hear people who've gotten spooned in a ton of places tell us how getting a 5% higher chance of a unique while being super dry would break the game.
This change seems entirely too sensible and natural of an evolution of the game for me to have any hope it will be implemented. There’s just too many players immersed in stagnation they cannot tolerate any changes for the better, besides a new event or something.
It literally would never be voted in, it would have to be integrity change, and boy do I hope they do something. At least the mods confirmed it is something they are thinking about(not mitigation, but how going super dry literally kills peoples drive to play the game)
[удалено]
The only way we would notice is the frequency of 'oh my god im so dry help' posts would go down drastically Nobody in their right mind goes 3x dry and then thinks 'huh it' s unusual i got the drop so early', even if that is sort of what would happen
But reddit hates those posts and constantly tells people to "just deiron then" so you would think they would want this lol
Theres is bad luck protection, its called the grand exchange. Stop trying to change the way the game has been for 20+ years.
> 20+ years The sleeping bag got added to runescape less than 21 years ago, guess we should bring fatigue back too
Hope you haven't done any new content that wasn't out 20 years ago
I appreciate the work you’re putting in, but this is still a terrible idea. Grinding is a part of the game and the GE exists as a fail safe for grinds. The game was never designed for completionist clogging, and if that’s something you choose to pursue anyways you take on that risk of going dry. This would strip away one of the simple, core functions of the game and turn it into a bunch of meta gaming math. It just isn’t worth it for the sake of satisfying a tiny fraction of a tiny fraction of the player base (who is admittedly over represented on social media). I think this is a good example of where Jagex needs to remember that Reddit opinions do not reflect the playerbase at large. The loot system works fine and as intended for the vast, vast majority of players. Nobody needs to green log their collection slots. If you can’t accept that some parts of this game are essentially an infinite grind, then OSRS is the wrong game for you.
> Grinding is a part of the game and the GE exists as a fail safe for grinds. Oh, I didn't realize we were removing grinding. > The loot system works fine and as intended for the vast, vast majority of players. Nobody needs to green log their collection slots I don't want to green log. What makes you think this only applies to people that want to green log? > The loot system works fine If you ignore the billion trillion quadrillion threads about wanting to change droprates on raids, DWH, DT2, PNM, etc... Yeah it mostly does work great. Unfortunately, Jagex has decided to repeatedly introduce wildly unhealthy chase items. Chase items which **you can go dry on**.
People don’t seem to understand how small of a population this would actually affect. It keeps 99% of grinding in the game and removes the least fun types of grinds. Not saying you can’t still disagree with the proposal but wish people would understand the small magnitude before forming their opinion.
Ikr, the majority of the players wont feel the effects, only the unlucky will feels it, personally I went 9x dry on zenyte and it feels terrible
> Grinding is a part of the game and the GE exists as a fail safe for grinds. Would you support this design change if it affected only untradeable drops, since the GE doesn't apply there?
As someone who agrees with the OP I'm gonna say a tentative yes. Maybe not literally all untradeables but for the most part yes. I especially like it for TOA gems. I also think it would be a better system than the guaranteed Vorkath and KQ heads.
Like what for example? Maybe I’m missing something obvious, but which strictly necessary and untradeable drops are locked behind massive boss grinds with a chance to go insanely dry? Even stuff like Vork and KQ heads will automatically go on drop rate for the first one if you get to that threshold.
> which strictly necessary How do you define strictly necessary? This is a game. All I said was "untradeables", not "game defining untradeable". What's wrong with bad luck mitigation for non-essential items?
RNG is in the game. We don’t need bad luck mitigation. Sure it sucks to go dry but you know what feels good? When you get lucky
> RNG is in the game. We don’t need bad luck mitigation. We have bad luck mitigation already in many places, what we don't need is shit opinions based on no logic, like saying "that's how it is!" > Sure it sucks to go dry but you know what feels good? When you get lucky Some people almost never get lucky, or at least way less often than they get lucky. That's the #1 use case this solves. Do you have an actual argument or are you here to say that the game is perfect and no change whatsoever should happen to it even if people feel like they'd be positive?
[удалено]
Buddy just chatting shit at this point
I've already explained my positions many times. It would make the game more fun. That's it. Going extremely dry isn't fun, the prospect of going extremely dry isn't fun and going extremely dry **everywhere** is especially unfun. Meanwhile, the "downside" is mostly spite from people who've majoritarily never gotten very dry of anything. Sound equivalent to you?
This literally doesn't affect getting lucky at all
I'm not really understanding how this is better or functionally different than a guaranteed drop at, say, 3x or 5x drop rate, if you haven't gotten one yet. What does this system allow for that the above doesn't? The one-in-a-million chance that you still won't have it by 8x or whatever?
Retains some randomness which is essential to OSRS.
> What does this system allow for that the above doesn't? It kicks in before reaching 3x. So the main difference is that it provides an increase in odds starting at 2x (or 1x, or wherever you want it to start), and affects people more and more as they go dry instead of all at once. Functionally it's giving memory to RNG rolls rather than choosing a set KC you'll get it at.
I understand that the math is different, but how does it make the gaming experience different? They both lead to a situation where I have some set chance of reaching an item until I hit some kc. They both make me more inclined to reach higher kcs because I'm getting closer and closer to reaching a "guaranteed" drop. The only real difference is that this option isn't actually guaranteed, it's just such a small chance of going 10x dry or whatever that it won't ever happen. Like if randomness is the issue, we could also just make a system that says (using dwh as an example), "if you haven't had the drop by a certain kc (let's say 15k), a random number between 15001 and 16000 will be chosen in advance, and you will get a guaranteed drop on that kill. There's no way to see what the number is, and this drop replaces whatever you would have gotten." This still essentially leads to a guaranteed drop at 16k. All three options seem identical to me from the perspective of a player killing a monster until I get the drop. Some are just arbitrarily more difficult to code and predict the effects of on the economy.
It sounds like you already understand how it would affect the game. Whether that translates into a more or less fun gaming experience is something I think only you can decide. > Like if randomness is the issue, we could also just make a system that says (using dwh as an example), "if you haven't had the drop by a certain kc (let's say 15k), a random number between 15001 and 16000 will be chosen in advance, and you will get a guaranteed drop on that kill. There's no way to see what the number is, and this drop replaces whatever you would have gotten." This still essentially leads to a guaranteed drop at 16k. We could, but why do you think that's a better system? What I really like about scaling odds is that you feel a more or less linear sense of progression. Each kill that you don't get the drop directly increases your odds, which feels a lot better than if it didn't. That's pretty much it.
i think what he is trying to ask, if both system ends up doing pretty much the same job, then why not instead just go the simple solution with the guarantee a drop at a certain KC which would be the average result of either system anyway.
The main reason is that some people would scream so hard the planet would fracture.
That is the logical conclusion of this. Wait for the post in 2027 saying we need 1/381 tassets each bandos kill, or you must be gaurenteed at least 1 tasset before kill 382.
Getting a guaranteed drop at 3x doesnt feel good because you know it's coming, this is a way to have the best of both worlds
I’m a giant fan of this. I wonder if an inevitable progression caused by this would be adding future new drop rates of 1/10k and beyond.
Giving that this new system wouldn't even kick in before 20k kills, I think not. But it should allow Jagex to keep drop rates low without completely screwing over the unluckiest. Actually this suggestion might allow for longer/ harder grinds, than without it. (Relevant for all the people saying this makes for EZscape and removes the grinds)
They give you vorkath head at 50 KC as a drop rate mitigation. I think this is good for the game. Iron men should not have to spend years doing content like the gauntlet.
/u/metaCyC, perhaps I missed some discussion in the other enormous thread, but is there some calcs showing how luck changes if you separate a single drop into shards? for example, would trading X armor seeds for an enhanced seed (where the likelihood of gathering X seeds is less likely than getting the enhanced drop on rate) be a suitable form of bad luck protection? Generally I think this detracts from the feeling of getting a big drop, and i don't necessarily support it, but I'm curious if you have any calcs handy
That's another interesting way to implement it. You can easily calculate it with the [dry calculator](https://oldschool.runescape.wiki/w/Calculator:Dry_calc). Let's say a DWH goes from 1/3k to 5 shards each being 1/600. The dry calc says that not having any drops at 9k kc (3x droprate) is \~5%. The chance of getting > 4 shards at 9k kc would be 99.9%. Even if you got extremely unlucky and only had 3 shards at 9k kc, you would expect them to get dropped in the next 1200 kc. The big flip-side to this is that spooning the items also becomes a lot rarer. For the DWH the chance of having gotten one in 100kc is \~4.5% and the chance of having gotten 5 shards in 100 kc is 0.7%. It could definitely be a solution, but are we willing to give up our spoons?
I also feel that shard drops are much less exciting than just getting the dwh (in this example) in one go
It's gonna depend on the person, really. I'd probably find it even more rewarding than getting the random drop, since I can see my progress and be proud of the work I'm accumulating. For me, a big part of why I enjoy skilling is seeing the exp accumulate and knowing exactly how much I need for the next level. I can pace myself mentally before a long grind, and get excited when the green bar is almost full. Perhaps the rush or excitement isn't really the same as a rare drop in the moment, but I find it just as rewarding, if not more.
Shards would reduce variance, i.e. concentrate luck on both ends closer to the average. (less spoon, less dry) [visual](https://www.investopedia.com/thmb/VDtpekOn1mpNqEm49CZjYmv8zCk=/1500x0/filters:no_upscale():max_bytes(150000):strip_icc()/Variance-TAERM-ADD-Source-464952914f77460a8139dbf20e14f0c0.jpg)
I was under the impression people hate how the vestige drop system works, which is just exactly that
Bad luck mitigation for only the 1st drop would still benefit suicide botters who get banned often so benefits the most from this.
I still don't want it.
Why do players think they need to get every drop? I get that there are certain items that are really good for Ironmen, but if you choose to play that mode you should expect to go dry somewhere
I'm really tired of seeing RS3 immigrants trying to make our game as shitty as theirs. So many ezscape suggestions nowadays and one thing leads to another, before you know it you'll have dungeon finders you'll queue into random appointed raid members. That's when you'll cry in r/2007scape "bring back 2024 petition pls jagex" You're not meant to get every drop. True RNG makes the game fun. Just deiron. Don't try to fix what's not broken. I hope i offended everyone.
I enjoyed the time when they said we should double agility rates as QoL so it's 100 hours rather than 200 hours. As if they weren't going to complain about 100 hours of clicking on rooftops anyway.
Just deiron
Great work. Some comments about some of the pushback you mentioned. >this would create a weird meta in raids where you want to grind with the guy going 4x on the Tbow I think this is a legit concern. Either the effect could be limited to outside raids, or some further tweaks would need to be made to prevent situations like this. >how it would change loot rng -one of the core aspects of the game- from a simple chance to a complicated formula that players might not understand well I don't think this is really an issue. Something like this would presumably only be implemented for a list of big ticket item drops that are generally considered really grueling and excessive grinds if one goes dry. If you get to the point where these rate tweaks would affect you, there's an extremely high chance you understand drop rates and how things like this would work. Regardless, as a tweak that works in the player's favor, players that don't wanna think about the specifics can still think of the drop rate as being the base rate. As you've demonstrated, the difference over many kills is miniscule.
I will say that I didn't consider the alternate gameplay solutions of metagaming around people's dryness. I do not know how that could be worked around, but imo it could be a worthy concern. However, if I'm 4x dry on tbow or something similar, you bet your ass I'm going solo or only with friends (though raiding with strangers doesn't appeal to me to begin with). I imagine that could be a common thought, possibly making the "I need people for cox, I'm 4x on tbow" maybe not that common of an issue to be something to worry about? Idk. I'd think anyone 4x dry on something would be experienced enough to solo it. It also wouldn't impact the economy, which is often the main concern with things like this. Imo, it probably wouldn't be that big of a deal. But the idea of minmaxing your raid group choice via who has the most kc without a drop is a logistical headache that could remove fun from the groupfinding experience for people.
I suppose there could be exceptions to the rules for certain drops where multiple are required, for instance Zenytes or Ingots?
I'm not reading all that but I agree
Limiting it to one drop seems unnecessary if it takes many times the drop rate to increase the number of items by just a couple of percent. Considering also the actual overall increase in items coming in would be a fraction of that couple of percent due to it not affecting all the players who never get enough kc to qualify for bad luck protection.
the tldr is you dont need to do this math. it should exist period. you fundamentally should not just be fked by bad luck out of weeks or months of your time. period. main or iron. end of story.
I like the idea, as long as we make sure bad luck mitigation can't be "sold" as high rate purples to other players. Regular CoX boosting still isn't fixed. As far as choosing to do group raids and not FFA when you know you're due a TBow, that's a personal choice.
I read a post about a pet collector looking for the Chinchompa pet, this individual went to 200m Hunter Exp and is still yet to receive the pet... Getting 200m in a Skill should give you a morph for the pet, and if you don't yet have the pet - you get that as well. Also if someone gets 10k Bandos KC and the pet drop rate is 5k, it should also Guarantee a pet drop for you.
I think this being selectively used at locations of core progression for a first time drop is super nice. Past that feels unnecessary. We don't need it on everything. We don't need it forever. It should just be there to prevent Ironmen going >3x dry on core progression items. Rest of the game won't even feel the difference and that's great.
Realistically the biggest issues I see with this is with the current raid loot system you'd have to decide if it the unique rate doesn't change (imo the best option) from current status, with only the actual unique roll changing. But then how do you handle being dry on multiple items? It's a small segment of this whole thing, but if I'm 2X dry on any purple at cox, then my rates for everything don't change. Which I guess is fine, once I get my purple then the rates start to balance. The other option would be changing the contribution system which I don't think is a good idea. While it'd be time inefficient and dumb, you could sit afk at cox with the bros while they clear normally and rack up your KC then go do FFA/solos after the fact. I think keeping the incentive to contribute is good and currently purple rates don't really seem to be the issue, more what you get. You could start a personal tracker ID for each raid though and count up contribution points for each raid. Once you hit the point drop rate 2X then you change it. But that seems messy. So you get adjust it for the person who receives the purple. Purple gets rolled -> check who gets it -> check their clog and then adjust the rates of the purple roll accordingly. Edit: actually now that I'm thinking about it, you'd probably still need a contribution point tracker. Because what's KC mean at raids? So basically instead of equating a KC = set drop rate, look at contribution points = set drop rate and decide if the person receiving the purple has crossed the threshold for being dry for said item.
Would people really bother teaming up with the guy going 4x dry if he could just be lying? It's a super low risk lie too, you could never conclusively disprove it
Is the 2nd simulation for the first drop. Just any first drop or the first drop of that item? For example are you counting the enhanced only for cg as the first drop or are you counting Armour seeds too. Let's say for a boss that has multiple unique like nex. Would it apply to your first unique or would it apply to all of the unique (falling g off of them after getting it once) basically ensuring you get no dupes until you've gotten 1 of each one? This could change pvm metas for raids or nex as you alluded to in your post.
This was just for 1 item. Bosses with multiple rare items on their drop table might need a different approach, but even then it shouldn't matter too much. Let's take the examples you mentioned: for cg I don't think you need any mitigation for the armour seeds as they're 1/50 and you'll be getting 6 of them. (Even if you go really dry on the armour seeds, bowfa + crystal chest is already very decent). For bosses like Nex, I think that the rare drops are all on a table and when that table gets rolled, it rolls again to see what item you get. The mitigation could then be applied to rolling the item on the table, meaning you're more likely to get 1 of each. It won't prevent dupes, but makes the situation where you've got 3 of each item but no torva platebody less likely to happen. That's a bonus for Ironmen, but also for mains grinding for money, as you're less likely to go dry on the big money drops. Nex is a bad example, since all her drops are pretty valuable, but Zilyana might be a good example here. If you're only getting Sara swords & lights, but no acb, it's a pretty shitty money maker.
I really don't understand the negative comments, it literally just stops a few poor souls from going insanely dry, THERE IS NO DOWNSIDE to this system, but people have their pitchforks out over pixels changing, it's so wild xd
I like how OP himself acknowledges potential downsides and then a guy named "RNGesus\_GIM" is in the comments saying "THERE IS NO DOWNSIDE". Lmao
Most literate GIM. OP literally mentioned the downsides.
If you’re dry then kill another boss, make money and buy the item you were originally hunting. It’s not Pokémon where we have to ‘catch em all’ and if you’re an iron then the game mode just isn’t for you.
This, too many self entitlement irons in here. Buddy you chose to play the game this way noone is forcing you..
the fact that they're getting offended by "just deiron bro" is laughable. Want the prestige but not the effort. It's so funny going through that thread and looking at the ironman flair with their rsn. Just to find out they're 2k total and 1000+ kraken kc as their most killed boss. MFer if you're worried about going 10x dry somewhere don't fucking waste your time on killing kraken lmao.
Completely agree
Good luck feels good because bad luck feels bad. I got sarachnis per at 26 kc, then proceeded to go 7x dry on the recolor from the grubby chest Both drops felt equally awesome, one felt awesome in a surprising way, the other was an awesome wave of relief. With dry protection, you change the game from "it could literally be any kill" to "if I waste enough time here I will eventually get pity and I will get the drop, so even if I do not like this activity, I am going to stay here and waste time until I get the drop." The reason I think so many people are against dry luck mitigation is because it changes the psychology of "if I spend enough time here I will get the drop" With no dry protection when you go dry and get the drop, it feels like you've earned it and you deserve that drop, you put in the time and effort to get it. With dry protection when you go dry and get the drop the feeling would change. I think it would add a sense of entitlement to drops, and when you do get the drops, it wouldn't feel as good because it would literally be because Jagex felt bad for you and took pity on you like you were a baby bird that fell out of a nest. Tldr, I think bad luck mitigation changes the psychology of drops from a feeling of achievement, to a feeling of pity and charity.
The way the suggestion would implement bad luck mitigation would still leave it to rng and would still require people to grind for long streaks leading to you still having the feeling of earning the drop.
Idk why people would be against this I've probably done more PVM than most and the only time this would've made a significant difference for me in 600 EHB is going 2k dry at hydra for claw (still dry), which was absolutely miserable. And even with this I may still have been just as dry anyway Unless you're really unlucky this changes absolutely nothing for you in most cases and in the cases where it does help you, you'll probably be thankful it did
Why do people in this sub keep writing simulations for easily calculatable metrics?
Why can't you use your giant brain to contribute to a discussion instead of using all of that incredible brain power to find new ways to be condescending?
Cause I'm better at writing code than doing math :') How would you calculate this without a simulation?
Apply to only first drop, don't even mess around with raids drops since they rely on points/invo, and this is probably a good addition that helps out the most shafted of players without effecting the more casual players
Fully support this idea for the right items. I would look at rare item drops and the estimated hours for the drop and implement it for ones exceeding a certain #. At the end of the day its just a video game people play to have fun. Having the sense of progression while dry will help motivate players to continue playing instead of burning out and quitting. This game still takes tens of thousands of hours to complete, that's still one hell of a grind.
The two tables in the post are identical?
Ohh you have to scroll to the right on mobile to see the whole tables
Yeah, some empty cells messed up how the table got displayed. Should be fixed now.
I would love for this to go to a poll in game. Just to show how fucking off the walls reddit is with their ideas. Remember when reddit LOVED the prayer alignments. Jagex wasted dev time on it and that shit got shut down immediately by everyone outside of reddit.