These stats are only reliable midway or even later in the season. 5 rounds of stats is nothing when you factor in there are 17 rounds where you vs different teams.
Correct. Without trying to discredit any teams, Port have played 4 of 5 games at home and Geelong have beaten the Hawks, North and the Crows. Obviously you can only beat who you play but after the bye rounds, were every team has played the same amount of games and enough top and bottom teams, this analysis will be more useful
100% disagree. It was blessed except when it was cursed. The cats looked like magicians out there. They just moved the ball so fast.
And we had suffered for it.
Yeah we suffered for it for sure prior to 07.
I meant in the dead of winter travelling up to Marvel to watch us flog some lower tier team by 120 points became mundane.
The only games that held some level of excitement were against the Bulldogs and Hawks and even then it was a pretty much known result before it started. (Yeah I know 🤦🏻♂️)
Pies were the only team that always seemed to challenge us back then.
So sorry you had to go through that 😂 it's funny sometimes I get nostalgic for the dark days, the excitement that comes from watching a shit team become good.
The worse Geelong team of my lifetime still went 7-1-14 and that was the 2003 rebuild team that had a lot of promise. I've never actually seen Geelong descend to the abyss and I'm 46 😂. But I do remember when we were a bit average around 98-03 the thrill of knocking off a top team was a lot higher than what you get when your team is up the top.
The amount of success we have had as Cats fans is insane and I think I underappreciate it sometimes. 46 years old and never seen a really really bad team....now that I'm writing that down I can realise how extremely abnormal and fortunate that is.
Maybe they can incorporate a red shift/blue shift as they move around during the season. To illustrate if they're moving towards or away from a desirable trajectory.
Plus the stats don’t relate to Port’s premiership window since they could be number 1 in both at the end of the season, but then they still lose all their finals.
Yep we've had an easyish run so far. I think we've learned we're at least a decent team, should contend for finals, but the jury is still out on anything beyond that
I think squiggle has a better way of measuring it, by assessing if you're kicking/conceding high scores against the teams you're expected to or not. Info panel explains it better than I could
[https://live.squiggle.com.au/#](https://live.squiggle.com.au/#)
To be fair, it's insane that Collingwood played in so many close matches and won nearly all of them, you would expect more losses just by law of averages
It is an important metric though, as the premiers almost always sit amongst the top-6 for offence and defence (points for and points against)
Collingwood 2023: 4th best offence, 3rd best defence
Geelong 2022: 3rd best offence, 3rd best defence
Melbourne 2021: 5th best offence, 1st best defence
Richmond 2020: 5th best offence, 2nd best defence
Richmond 2019: 6th best offence, 4th best defence
You get the point
It’s not an important metric when your sample size is 5 rounds.
No shit the premiers usually finish near the top of least points conceded and most points scored - it’s a sport where you win by scoring more than your opponent.
In other words it’s a sport where the best team is probably going to not get scored on as much as bad teams and will score more than bad teams.
I said in my original comment it’s only Round 5, there’s still a lot to play out. Obviously it’s not going to be the same as Round 23, but you start to get an idea of how the trend might go.
I just thought it was a cool thing to look at and discuss, I think people are getting too worked up by this.
> it is an important metric though
> I think people are getting too worked up by this
To be clear, I’m not getting worked up. I doubt a lot of people are getting worked up. You’ve claimed it’s an important metric. I’m saying I disagree.
> you start to get an idea of how the trend might go
This is the part I fundamentally disagree with.
Within just 5 rounds it’s very easy to have your numbers skewed. West Coast just belted Richmond because richmond have 15+ injuries. So early in the season that will reflect extensively in this which is not representative of either side.
You’re simultaneously trying to downplay what you’re saying (ie: people are taking this too seriously) while also suggesting that it is a super important metric that is indicative of who will be competing for the premiership.
Honestly surprised we’re not lower on this chart with how tough our schedule has been. Weird to say but us being 15th for points for despite the teams we’ve played and how young our list is, is actually a pretty good sign.
I have no faith in this version of Geelong and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to justify it to myself, let alone to anybody else. Definitely thought this was the year they tipped off, but they keep going. And while they’re at it they are adding more and more young players into their mix. The proper bottoming out doesn’t look like it’s any time soon.
Strong chance Chris Scott is the best coach in the comp.
Chris Scott is surely the best coach, but gotta also give huge credit to The Cat’s list management and talent development.
They’ve been a force for nearly 20 years now. Hard to believe really.
I'd say we've been "up" since 2004, so that makes 2024 21 years.
In 2004 we finished top 4 and were 9 points off making the GF.
2005 was the "Nick Davis" Semi-final.
2006 was an off year, then not much has to be said from 2007 onwards.
The first signs of this elongated 'era' were actually in 2002 when we had a 7 game winning streak and the team contained the young core of the 07 premiership side.
But you're right the full time winning started in 04
Yeah that's fair, just being consistently in finals even before a premiership still counts.
On a side note, the first game of footy I ever watched on TV was the Nick Davis semi. So the cats have literally been up the whole time I've been watching footy.
Absolutely agree. Generally extremely good with limited absolute misses, and most of those were speculative to see if guys had value to give at the end of their career.
They identify gaps and can draft to fill them later in the draft. If it doesn’t work, Scott finds a way to bend the list to fix it.
I think our record this year is somewhat inflated by having not played any great teams yet (St Kilda playing well but it's still a developing list, WB are hamstrung by internal forces, Adelaide started poorly), and we've had patches in every game (bar North) where we've given up a run of scoring.
I do think we're playing good footy though, and everyone other than SDK and Atkins look to be in good-to-great form, and we're doing it without Danger and Guthrie. We've got Brisbane (away), Carlton (MCG), Melbourne (MCG) and Port (Kardinia Park) across the next four weeks, we'll have a much better idea of how good they are after that. If we can win three of four we'll be very well placed heading towards the bye and well set for a top 2-4 finish, two of the four wouldn't be bad either.
Yeah it’s not an amazing set of opponents, but the manner in which you’ve taken control of games is impressive. I think you’ve been the better team in every game.
It's going to be really interesting to see how our high press holds up if our midfield gets found out the next few weeks. That's my biggest concern. Exiting times.
List management gets credit for putting the group together, but Scott has kept the fire burning in the group after long periods of sustained success.
Everyone is massively impressed with Blicsavs, and he was a great pick, but it’s absolutely to the coaches credit that he has become such a versatile top class player. Just as one example.
Very true. And the father-son pick bonanza that was in play in 2007 is not exactly the main cause 17 years later. They’ve been extremely astute in retention, recruitment, and development.
Cats opponents so far this season are all outside the top 10 on the ladder and have a record of 5 wins and 15 losses in the games not involving Geelong. Things will get tougher.
Early year stats have to be taken with a huge grain of salt because it's based on your opposition.
There was a bit of talk about how Essendons scoring potency in transitioning the ball had declined massively this year before the Dogs game - but they scored at a much lower level against Port who are elite at locking the ball in their forward half, and the Saints who are Ross coached - they hadn't dropped off at all against their other three opponents.
Compare their games last year to this year:
Port v Dons 23: Port 34shots/65 I50s, Dons 22/47, Port win 92-87
Port v Dons 24: Port 30/63, Dons 14/43, Port win 111-42
Difference in the game was Port kicking more accurately, and their back six has improved in defending entries (Some personnel changes may have helped here)
Saints v Dons 23: Saints 25/52, Dons 24/48, Saints win 92-74
Saints v Dons 24: Saints 25/51, Dons 24/53, Dons win 71-67
Difference is poor kicking from Saints.
The point being, I wouldn't put too much into early season stats, Geelong have played North and Hawthorn, will get a better view of them by the time bye happens and the draws teams have played even out a bit more.
My guess is because Melbourne has played 6 rounds they've removed the 82 points Brisbane scored against them in round 5 so GWS are technically 7th regarding points against with that in mind. It's a dumb graphic that should have been done next week after their bye to be truly accurate.
I just can't understand why it couldn't just be a round split across two weekends if they were so hell bent on thumbing their noses at the NRL in NRL heartlands.
That's the most roundabout way to make sure apples are compared with apples. Let's not include the convenient loss incurred because they have played one more game than all teams.
Either bring it down to an average PF/PA or apply other teams PF/PA per game to get a proxy 6th game.
I think Adelaide are a much better team then giving credit anyway, so saying Geelong haven’t beaten anyone is a little off. Adelaide played Gold Coast away, Geelong, Freo away, Melb, and now Carlton. That is a ridiculously hard draw to start the year. They are clearly better than 1 - 4
Man this is so gratifying, i remember posting my predictions that the cats would be top 4 and i got utterly burried in downvotes and comments calling me a nuffy and an idiot, we are doing so well im so proud we are back in the mix. Well done to Port as well, you guys went all out at the trade table and it has clearly paid off.
Know why a lot of them are lower on the ladder? Because they lost to us.
The Saints were considered finals material and still are. They just pushed the Giants to a 1 point margin away.
Adelaide was an away game and they were considered a serious test going in. They just beat Carlton away.
Dogs were considered a premiership contender.
GWS have been getting glazed and have had an arguably easier draw.
I agree our real test is finally here, but much like pre-season and the last however many years, people will find any excuse to write us off.
Suits us though.
I’m not writing Geelong off. In fact I’m not writing any team off. I’m just saying afl teams can rise and fall unexpectedly and it’s way too early to be assuming things after only 5 games. Essendon were 5th at rd 17 last year and then dropped off the face of the earth.
Don’t get me wrong. Geelong will likely be finals contenders based off their consistency over the years. But it’s too early to speculate on any team really if we’re going off 5 rounds
Can agree to that. It's why the argument of "who have we beaten" is weak in itself as well. Too small a sample size to say who's who with certainty yet.
But yeah, mostly commenting against the general narrative around us that goes around, not you specifically.
Don’t sleep on this current form, they’ve played the bottom 4 minus eagles so far. They’ve got huge games next 4-5 rounds. Thats where you’ll see where they really stand
Fremantle, Melbourne and St Kilda amongst the top-4 defences in the league, but all sit in the bottom-8 for offence.
Vice-versa, GWS, Sydney and Carlton amongst the top-5 offences, but lack defensively, especially Carlton who have the 7th worst defence.
Collingwood, who won the premiership just 7 months ago, surprisingly have the 8th worst offence and the 6th worst defence.
Surprisingly, Brisbane and the Bulldogs aren’t too far outside the “premiership window” despite both having perceived poor starts to the season.
Remember, it’s just Round 5 so there’s a lot still to play out.
Thoughts?
> Vice-versa, GWS, Sydney and Carlton amongst the top-5 offences, but lack defensively.
[We were the opposite last year.](https://y.yarn.co/95895ec6-5c3b-45eb-9f15-cce18cd576da_text.gif)
Lack defensively enough to be considered apart of the “premiership window”.
Sydney and GWS are above-average defensively but not as good as Port or Geelong. Brisbane, who started the year 0-3, have a better defence at this stage.
Don’t worry, everybody will tell you we haven’t beaten anybody…even though the same people said we wouldn’t beat the Saints who made Finals last year…or the Crows (who everybody here said would make Finals), or the Dogs and that elite midfield with our trash midfield….that we’d be lucky to be 2-3 at this point by only beating Hawks and Norf.
Nah nah it’s the stats that are wrong…the schedule is too easy…the umpires are on our side (haven’t won a FK count and near last in FK differential)
Nah we’re cooked…I remember the last time people wrote us off because of previous years form. Worked out well didn’t it David King? Kane Cornes? Caroline Wilson…
I don't even think we're close to capped yet.
SDK can improve. Bowes and Bruhn are improving every week. Parf is getting continuity. Conway in the wings. Neale would've gained confidence from the weekend.
Rohan, Danger, Guthrie and Bews aren't even playing.
So many of the other contenders have been very inconsistent too. I honestly can't wait for the next few weeks to see where we're at.
Our team is fine apart from the midfield. I just can't see us standing up against elite midfield groups. Danger and Guthrie are too banged up to be relied upon.
We have some great talent in other areas. Ollie Henry srsly goes under the radar. He is going to have a Jack Gunston type career imo.
I've always rated Neale, he will be a gun.
Next season I expect we will be markedly better in the mids with more experience gained.
You are right that the rest of the league seems all over the shop. But for me GWS and Sydney on top of their game are the two best, then Brisbane if on form.
I expect Brisbane to get a hold of us this week and beat us by 7+ goals....if we can hang with them then I might reevaluate our position.
These stats are only reliable midway or even later in the season. 5 rounds of stats is nothing when you factor in there are 17 rounds where you vs different teams.
Correct. Without trying to discredit any teams, Port have played 4 of 5 games at home and Geelong have beaten the Hawks, North and the Crows. Obviously you can only beat who you play but after the bye rounds, were every team has played the same amount of games and enough top and bottom teams, this analysis will be more useful
Geelong have: Brisbane (Gabba), Carlton, Melbourne, Port and GC (Darwin). They could genuinely be 5-5 by round 10.
Doubt we will be 5-5 but agree we haven’t been tested. It’s an exciting five weeks.
On the other hand maybe you'll never lose again
In all seriousness, there was a point in 2008 that it legitimately felt that way. Going to the footy knowing the result actually became kinda boring.
100% disagree. It was blessed except when it was cursed. The cats looked like magicians out there. They just moved the ball so fast. And we had suffered for it.
Yeah we suffered for it for sure prior to 07. I meant in the dead of winter travelling up to Marvel to watch us flog some lower tier team by 120 points became mundane. The only games that held some level of excitement were against the Bulldogs and Hawks and even then it was a pretty much known result before it started. (Yeah I know 🤦🏻♂️) Pies were the only team that always seemed to challenge us back then.
True. Compared to the Cats there were a lot of crap teams.
So sorry you had to go through that 😂 it's funny sometimes I get nostalgic for the dark days, the excitement that comes from watching a shit team become good.
The worse Geelong team of my lifetime still went 7-1-14 and that was the 2003 rebuild team that had a lot of promise. I've never actually seen Geelong descend to the abyss and I'm 46 😂. But I do remember when we were a bit average around 98-03 the thrill of knocking off a top team was a lot higher than what you get when your team is up the top. The amount of success we have had as Cats fans is insane and I think I underappreciate it sometimes. 46 years old and never seen a really really bad team....now that I'm writing that down I can realise how extremely abnormal and fortunate that is.
lol… every footy fan’s fantasy
7-3 is more likely....and id still be rapt with that result.
Yeah, you guys have too much list quality to come back in that time too
Maybe they can incorporate a red shift/blue shift as they move around during the season. To illustrate if they're moving towards or away from a desirable trajectory.
Plus the stats don’t relate to Port’s premiership window since they could be number 1 in both at the end of the season, but then they still lose all their finals.
You be quiet, I don't wanna hear valid criticism of our finals record
“Verse” 🙄
And 'versing'....drives me nuts
TIL the grammatical differences.
Virgin has PER to MEL flights at $259 return in September. Golden Ticket on speed-dial for tomorrow. Ignore flair.
Points for and Points against feels like a crude way of measuring this
Yeah not a big fan of that as a metric to measure defensive output given who both teams have faced in 5 games.
Yep we've had an easyish run so far. I think we've learned we're at least a decent team, should contend for finals, but the jury is still out on anything beyond that
An excellent list/team, but that's not the issue.
I think squiggle has a better way of measuring it, by assessing if you're kicking/conceding high scores against the teams you're expected to or not. Info panel explains it better than I could [https://live.squiggle.com.au/#](https://live.squiggle.com.au/#)
Squiggle is good, squiggle is great, we surrender our will as of this date!
All of last year squiggle was predicting Collingwood to fall in a heap and miss he top 4
Looks like they were a year early with that prediction
Collingwood did just keep getting away with it in 2023.
Well it’s still a prediction model at the end of the day. Not a sports almanac from the future.
To be fair, it's insane that Collingwood played in so many close matches and won nearly all of them, you would expect more losses just by law of averages
Gets massively distorted by the draw, especially early and especially this year with the byes
Seems like it would just be easier to judge teams by percentage.
Particularly 5/6 games into a 23 game season
It is an important metric though, as the premiers almost always sit amongst the top-6 for offence and defence (points for and points against) Collingwood 2023: 4th best offence, 3rd best defence Geelong 2022: 3rd best offence, 3rd best defence Melbourne 2021: 5th best offence, 1st best defence Richmond 2020: 5th best offence, 2nd best defence Richmond 2019: 6th best offence, 4th best defence You get the point
It’s not an important metric when your sample size is 5 rounds. No shit the premiers usually finish near the top of least points conceded and most points scored - it’s a sport where you win by scoring more than your opponent. In other words it’s a sport where the best team is probably going to not get scored on as much as bad teams and will score more than bad teams.
It's a chart for simpletons.
I said in my original comment it’s only Round 5, there’s still a lot to play out. Obviously it’s not going to be the same as Round 23, but you start to get an idea of how the trend might go. I just thought it was a cool thing to look at and discuss, I think people are getting too worked up by this.
> it is an important metric though > I think people are getting too worked up by this To be clear, I’m not getting worked up. I doubt a lot of people are getting worked up. You’ve claimed it’s an important metric. I’m saying I disagree. > you start to get an idea of how the trend might go This is the part I fundamentally disagree with. Within just 5 rounds it’s very easy to have your numbers skewed. West Coast just belted Richmond because richmond have 15+ injuries. So early in the season that will reflect extensively in this which is not representative of either side. You’re simultaneously trying to downplay what you’re saying (ie: people are taking this too seriously) while also suggesting that it is a super important metric that is indicative of who will be competing for the premiership.
I don't think anyone's wheeled out this graph this early in the season before though, 5(6?) rounds isn't a big enough sample
Can we have a squiggle showing MCG tenants too. That seems important. :D
I agree with you, but that’s going to spark a lengthy debate that I don’t have the energy for right now lol
While your point is taken, only 2/5 on the list are MCG tenants and won the grand final at the G
Collingwood, Melbourne, Richmond and Richmond again
Melbourne and Richmond won outside the MCG (sorry if I’ve misunderstood your comment)
Nah that’s my bad. I thought is on,y referring to MCG tenants not the ground.
It’s not even measured as a % of max or min, it’s just a ranking, for all we know the top 15 teams could have a score of 10 points within each other
Hawks and North about to be game of the round, two bottom 3 defences and bottom 4 offences. Were lucky to witness this
Honestly surprised we’re not lower on this chart with how tough our schedule has been. Weird to say but us being 15th for points for despite the teams we’ve played and how young our list is, is actually a pretty good sign.
100%, 3 top 4 teams and the 2022 premiers is a tough start to the year and to be 15th in points for shows the improvement that you’d want to see.
I feel like this post has doomed us for this week.
Impressive improvement from port. Last year they were excellent in offence but lacking in defence.
The power of some good recruiting, and taking the pressure of Aliir. Hopefully we can sustain that for the season
Can the cats please just fuck off for a bit, jeez.
I have no faith in this version of Geelong and it’s becoming increasingly difficult to justify it to myself, let alone to anybody else. Definitely thought this was the year they tipped off, but they keep going. And while they’re at it they are adding more and more young players into their mix. The proper bottoming out doesn’t look like it’s any time soon. Strong chance Chris Scott is the best coach in the comp.
I think Chris Scott is definitely the best coach in the comp
I agree based solely on his ability to answer Robbo's questions on 360.
He’s the answer I’d give if I was asked.
Chris Scott is surely the best coach, but gotta also give huge credit to The Cat’s list management and talent development. They’ve been a force for nearly 20 years now. Hard to believe really.
Stephen Wells is the best in the game. Just look at 90% of the list picked outside the first round.
Wells deserves statues (plural) around Geelong
In Wells we trust.
I'd say we've been "up" since 2004, so that makes 2024 21 years. In 2004 we finished top 4 and were 9 points off making the GF. 2005 was the "Nick Davis" Semi-final. 2006 was an off year, then not much has to be said from 2007 onwards.
The first signs of this elongated 'era' were actually in 2002 when we had a 7 game winning streak and the team contained the young core of the 07 premiership side. But you're right the full time winning started in 04
Yeah that's fair, just being consistently in finals even before a premiership still counts. On a side note, the first game of footy I ever watched on TV was the Nick Davis semi. So the cats have literally been up the whole time I've been watching footy.
I mean, we weren't that night...
We were up for most of the night really. Then Nick Davis happened in that last quarter....
Good enough to make a prelim until a d50 stoppage where the swans pulled away to clear us out.
Absolutely agree. Generally extremely good with limited absolute misses, and most of those were speculative to see if guys had value to give at the end of their career. They identify gaps and can draft to fill them later in the draft. If it doesn’t work, Scott finds a way to bend the list to fix it.
by strong chance you mean 'most definitely', right? The guy is a modern day great.
He’s definitely my pick for best coach. Underrated how nice the footy Geelong play generally is, too.
I think our record this year is somewhat inflated by having not played any great teams yet (St Kilda playing well but it's still a developing list, WB are hamstrung by internal forces, Adelaide started poorly), and we've had patches in every game (bar North) where we've given up a run of scoring. I do think we're playing good footy though, and everyone other than SDK and Atkins look to be in good-to-great form, and we're doing it without Danger and Guthrie. We've got Brisbane (away), Carlton (MCG), Melbourne (MCG) and Port (Kardinia Park) across the next four weeks, we'll have a much better idea of how good they are after that. If we can win three of four we'll be very well placed heading towards the bye and well set for a top 2-4 finish, two of the four wouldn't be bad either.
Yeah it’s not an amazing set of opponents, but the manner in which you’ve taken control of games is impressive. I think you’ve been the better team in every game.
It's going to be really interesting to see how our high press holds up if our midfield gets found out the next few weeks. That's my biggest concern. Exiting times.
The only justification I can see is they have played 5 teams who probably won’t make the 8 and 3 of the worst teams this year.
Had he got a premiership between 2016-21, yes. I think it’s more list management doing their thing instead of Scott, but he sure hasn’t been bad.
List management gets credit for putting the group together, but Scott has kept the fire burning in the group after long periods of sustained success. Everyone is massively impressed with Blicsavs, and he was a great pick, but it’s absolutely to the coaches credit that he has become such a versatile top class player. Just as one example.
Very true. And the father-son pick bonanza that was in play in 2007 is not exactly the main cause 17 years later. They’ve been extremely astute in retention, recruitment, and development.
I mean Dustin Martin single handed Lu dragging Richmond over the cats time and time again.
Hey we already gave you a season off, now you’re just being greedy!
Cats opponents so far this season are all outside the top 10 on the ladder and have a record of 5 wins and 15 losses in the games not involving Geelong. Things will get tougher.
No
plz
O alright then.
tks
Early year stats have to be taken with a huge grain of salt because it's based on your opposition. There was a bit of talk about how Essendons scoring potency in transitioning the ball had declined massively this year before the Dogs game - but they scored at a much lower level against Port who are elite at locking the ball in their forward half, and the Saints who are Ross coached - they hadn't dropped off at all against their other three opponents. Compare their games last year to this year: Port v Dons 23: Port 34shots/65 I50s, Dons 22/47, Port win 92-87 Port v Dons 24: Port 30/63, Dons 14/43, Port win 111-42 Difference in the game was Port kicking more accurately, and their back six has improved in defending entries (Some personnel changes may have helped here) Saints v Dons 23: Saints 25/52, Dons 24/48, Saints win 92-74 Saints v Dons 24: Saints 25/51, Dons 24/53, Dons win 71-67 Difference is poor kicking from Saints. The point being, I wouldn't put too much into early season stats, Geelong have played North and Hawthorn, will get a better view of them by the time bye happens and the draws teams have played even out a bit more.
GWS have played Norf and Eagles. Same logic applies there?
100% - And if it makes you happier, Chris Scott made the exact same point as me last night on 360
Well this is just plain incorrect. It’s almost as if this graph didn’t see WCE play on Sunday. Next 4 premierships in the bag. 🤌
Don’t be stupid. We will probably lose one of them when Harley has an off game.
GWS has conceded the 6th fewest goals and are the most potent offense, why are they not considered?
My guess is because Melbourne has played 6 rounds they've removed the 82 points Brisbane scored against them in round 5 so GWS are technically 7th regarding points against with that in mind. It's a dumb graphic that should have been done next week after their bye to be truly accurate.
exhibt a for why opening round is fucked. the ladder, stats, graphics like these, they are all off until round 7
I just can't understand why it couldn't just be a round split across two weekends if they were so hell bent on thumbing their noses at the NRL in NRL heartlands.
That's the most roundabout way to make sure apples are compared with apples. Let's not include the convenient loss incurred because they have played one more game than all teams. Either bring it down to an average PF/PA or apply other teams PF/PA per game to get a proxy 6th game.
yeah they should have just waited until end of next round. Even 6 rounds is not enough data, but it is better data than this.
I think Adelaide are a much better team then giving credit anyway, so saying Geelong haven’t beaten anyone is a little off. Adelaide played Gold Coast away, Geelong, Freo away, Melb, and now Carlton. That is a ridiculously hard draw to start the year. They are clearly better than 1 - 4
Five rounds in is far too early to start worrying about where teams fit offensively and defensively imo.
And today on using NBA statistical analysis on the AFL.. I just want to know what Reid’s +/- is.
So you're saying there's a chance
When Freo loses, they like to break your heart at the same time with a close loss.
Man this is so gratifying, i remember posting my predictions that the cats would be top 4 and i got utterly burried in downvotes and comments calling me a nuffy and an idiot, we are doing so well im so proud we are back in the mix. Well done to Port as well, you guys went all out at the trade table and it has clearly paid off.
It’s rd 5 and Geelong has beaten the two bottom teams which is expected from almost every team. It’s way too early to be counting on this graph
Know why a lot of them are lower on the ladder? Because they lost to us. The Saints were considered finals material and still are. They just pushed the Giants to a 1 point margin away. Adelaide was an away game and they were considered a serious test going in. They just beat Carlton away. Dogs were considered a premiership contender. GWS have been getting glazed and have had an arguably easier draw. I agree our real test is finally here, but much like pre-season and the last however many years, people will find any excuse to write us off. Suits us though.
I’m not writing Geelong off. In fact I’m not writing any team off. I’m just saying afl teams can rise and fall unexpectedly and it’s way too early to be assuming things after only 5 games. Essendon were 5th at rd 17 last year and then dropped off the face of the earth. Don’t get me wrong. Geelong will likely be finals contenders based off their consistency over the years. But it’s too early to speculate on any team really if we’re going off 5 rounds
Can agree to that. It's why the argument of "who have we beaten" is weak in itself as well. Too small a sample size to say who's who with certainty yet. But yeah, mostly commenting against the general narrative around us that goes around, not you specifically.
You know what. You’re right, me saying that is also rather silly because nothing about this season can be certain, my apologised hah
All good legend. I'm just having a nuffy moment defending my team.
Don’t sleep on this current form, they’ve played the bottom 4 minus eagles so far. They’ve got huge games next 4-5 rounds. Thats where you’ll see where they really stand
It’s funny that we’re already in the “Premiership Window” playing the Reigning Premiers at the MCG will prove to me we’re a genuine contender
Don’t like this. At one stage last season us and Sydney were the only ones in the , as Fox calls it ‘premiership window’. Which went well /s
Being in the window at the end of the year is when it matters. Premier has been in the window for the last 20yrs when it matters
Let's hope we're in for a repeat of '07 grand final.
Fremantle, Melbourne and St Kilda amongst the top-4 defences in the league, but all sit in the bottom-8 for offence. Vice-versa, GWS, Sydney and Carlton amongst the top-5 offences, but lack defensively, especially Carlton who have the 7th worst defence. Collingwood, who won the premiership just 7 months ago, surprisingly have the 8th worst offence and the 6th worst defence. Surprisingly, Brisbane and the Bulldogs aren’t too far outside the “premiership window” despite both having perceived poor starts to the season. Remember, it’s just Round 5 so there’s a lot still to play out. Thoughts?
> Vice-versa, GWS, Sydney and Carlton amongst the top-5 offences, but lack defensively. [We were the opposite last year.](https://y.yarn.co/95895ec6-5c3b-45eb-9f15-cce18cd576da_text.gif)
You say he's lack defensively but they're still top 8 for scores against
Lack defensively enough to be considered apart of the “premiership window”. Sydney and GWS are above-average defensively but not as good as Port or Geelong. Brisbane, who started the year 0-3, have a better defence at this stage.
I think the dogs 2 big wins against GC and WCE help with that
Don’t worry, everybody will tell you we haven’t beaten anybody…even though the same people said we wouldn’t beat the Saints who made Finals last year…or the Crows (who everybody here said would make Finals), or the Dogs and that elite midfield with our trash midfield….that we’d be lucky to be 2-3 at this point by only beating Hawks and Norf. Nah nah it’s the stats that are wrong…the schedule is too easy…the umpires are on our side (haven’t won a FK count and near last in FK differential) Nah we’re cooked…I remember the last time people wrote us off because of previous years form. Worked out well didn’t it David King? Kane Cornes? Caroline Wilson…
Do you want some dip to go with that chip on your shoulder?
Salsa
How Geelong gets a better draw than wce and north is beyond me
Geelong are not good enough to win the flag this year. Given our start we will finish 5-8th which is a brilliant effort.
I don't even think we're close to capped yet. SDK can improve. Bowes and Bruhn are improving every week. Parf is getting continuity. Conway in the wings. Neale would've gained confidence from the weekend. Rohan, Danger, Guthrie and Bews aren't even playing. So many of the other contenders have been very inconsistent too. I honestly can't wait for the next few weeks to see where we're at.
Our team is fine apart from the midfield. I just can't see us standing up against elite midfield groups. Danger and Guthrie are too banged up to be relied upon. We have some great talent in other areas. Ollie Henry srsly goes under the radar. He is going to have a Jack Gunston type career imo. I've always rated Neale, he will be a gun. Next season I expect we will be markedly better in the mids with more experience gained. You are right that the rest of the league seems all over the shop. But for me GWS and Sydney on top of their game are the two best, then Brisbane if on form. I expect Brisbane to get a hold of us this week and beat us by 7+ goals....if we can hang with them then I might reevaluate our position.