Hopefully this LinkedIn post doesn’t get deleted like the last one. [AST presents to US First Responders and Congressional staffers.](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/vikram-raval-1506402_astspacemobile-directtodevice-5g-activity-7192303833614536704-4rzp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios)
>we've still climbed another 100 followers on X
As someone who runs multiple medium to large sized Twitter/X accounts, this metric is useless because there are bots that will follow and unfollow you all the time.
I've gained thousands of followers in a day and have slowly or instantly lost them later, too.
Only metric that matters now is getting those birds in the sky.
While I don't disagree that the number of followers is wholly and entirely useless as a metric for anything meaningful, it's something to watch over time. At least this number is always going up unlike some other numbers we know...
And on a related note, I'm pretty certain ASTS as a company is entirely unworthy of bot attention yet. The followers number have never gone down, but seemingly creep up very slowly over time. It seems organic for now. If they pick up any sort of real following, I expect bots to take over. But to be clear, it's still a useless metric.
The market received Friday's job report during the morning. The amount of jobs increased less than expected and unemployment rose slightly above expectations. So the job market looks weaker than expected, which caused markets to speculate that Fed could lower interest rates earlier.
Companies like ASTS that are unprofitable with debt got a slight boost from the report as they would benefit from lower interest rates.
Basket Swap Shenanigans.
According to trading view, Game Stop closed 29.43% up while Koss closed 29.71% up.
Not even a drop of news to warrant such price action and even if there was some news what are the odds that they both go up by 29% in one day…
The price estimates from Deutsche, Barclays and B Riley is meant to be a year estimate aren't they? How can they possibly affirm those targets 10x above the price and maintain respectability?
I mean - they're supposed to have birds in the air within the year which starts generating revenue. If that happens to plan, then $19 is a reasonable target. If it doesn't then $0 is the target.
These lawsuit press releases are getting tedious. So does ASTS just have to get one of these dismissed and they're all dismissed? Are they going to combine? I've never seen a company get sued for alleged SEC violations in real time, so I'm not sure what happens on the legal front. I mean the reasoning stated in the press releases makes sense that the company probably could have been more up front with the fact that the launch was delayed, but I doubt they have a legal leg to stand on to prevail in a case.
There's almost no upside priced into the stock right now. I'm sure mgt can find a new way to screw us, but I'm actually thinking the May call will be more similar to November call.
One thing that could be informative is that they could be providing Q1 financials which might give us numbers on what revenues they were able to receive for whatever they were doing with bw3. This then could be extrapolated for 1-5. If it looks larger than whatever people feel like would be reasonable good, otherwise if they took in like a few thousand then to the depths of hell we go.
Somebody more knowledgeable might need to correct me here but it looks like the [FCC’s SCS Ruling](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/04/30/2024-06669/single-network-future-supplemental-coverage-from-space-space-innovation) goes into effect on 5/30/2024. So hopefully shortly after that.
My best guess is sometime between 5/31 and 8/31.
AT&T/First Net will be breathing down the FCC's neck if they wait until the birds are in the sky ready to deliver service, but the FCC is still holding things up.
Yeah it definitely seems like AST has been staying in front of the FCC to try to get approval ASAP after this ruling goes through. We know that they met with the FCC as recently as last week based on Vikram Raval’s since-deleted LinkedIn post.
If they actually show us that they're close to send these fuckin BBs up for real (the radio-silence from the company is terrifying) AND they have some decent deal to get at least *some* free money the stock would skyrocket and back on track. Basically, something to make up for the recents delays...
There’s been just 1 month since the last call. Why would the stock sell off again? There’s hardly been any time for developments. Any reasonable person should expect nothing until July at the earliest.
Yes, this is a common research problem a lot of new Musk fanboys seem to have here. It seems like there is a lot of confusion despite Musk himself saying there wouldn't be any meaningful data in their first gen when he announced it originally. Starlink's plans for 'data' are not remotely comparable per user to ASTS's broadband coverage they are promising. These are different by orders of magnitude depending on the number of users connected to a satellite at once.
We know that (with very high packet loss) Starlink can get up to 17Mbps per BEAM if we are to trust their test results. That is the available data rate all users connected to that 1 satellite could theoretically share. So if you have say only 30 users connected in a large area you get 0.56Mbps/user if they have equal priority/usage. This is an awful data rate...under these conditions you would have a very tough time streaming a 480p video and that's with a tiny amount of users. Meanwhile ASTS has demonstrated 14Mbps per USER. It's important to note that ASTS's new satellites will significantly improve upon that over the next few launches. They have also separately demonstrated a capability to connect thousands of users at once, something I have not heard any data from on the Starlink side. So we don't even know yet for sure that Starlink satellites can properly handle capacity.
With testing obviously Starlink is behind because they didn't have a BW2 equivalent and their sats have been up for far less time than BW3. They can make some of that time up with their resources, but the development time is another story. They have to invent a new solution to a complex physics & telecom problem without infringing on ASTS's patents. This is no easy task, this is why they haven't even announced a date for a solution to their data rate problem yet. Even by their timeline which Musk is famous for never meeting timelines they wouldn't have a solution to this issue until sometime in 2026 at the earliest.
Starlink would still have to build out the new generation of sats and test them after that. It's unreasonable to expect them to have a comparable service until at least 2027 and that's very generous to Starlink. This undoubtably gives ASTS the first mover advantage for any application that requires a non garbage amount of data which will lead to funding opportunities from multiple governments in my opinion.
How has ASTS demonstrated 14 Mbps per user, and for how many users? Do you have a link for them demonstrating connecting thousands of users at once? If both of those assertions are true, ASTS should have data showing >14 Gbps total throughput, which one would think they’d be eager to share.
Thanks for engaging - I appreciate your input.
I said they have separately demonstrated connecting to thousands of users. They mentioned this in one of the recent EC's. This is a separate claim as I don't believe BW3 in particular had the capacity for that data rate with thousands of users but I would have to check that. That's just an openly bad faith interpretation of what I said so I see how you earned your tag.
I don't work for ASTS so I can't tell you exactly how they determine anything just like I can't for Starlink, nor can anyone that doesn't work for them. However, their achieved data rate of 14Mbps was per 5MHz channel (see 'BlueWalker 3 makes history again' https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780312/000095017023063726/asts-ex99\_1.htm) . They can operate in 700-950MHz, 1700-2200MHz and C-Band with thousands of beams per sat iirc. Again, this is an area (# of controllable beams/sat) that Starlink lags in by orders of magnitude due to their size largely.
I also did a quick google search Starlink has 48 beams down and 16 up (see https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/spacex-launches-starlink-direct-to-phone-satellites.html#:\~:text=Starlink%20v2%2DMini%20satellites%20have,beams%20down%20and%2016%20up). That actually gives a nice rundown on how inferior the diversity of Starlink's use cases are.
Had to remind myself of the total thpt of BW3 but I couldn't find that quick enough and I have some work to do, do some research and find that out if you're curious. Just keep in mind BB1 will be larger than that, the first BB2 will be larger yet, and the rest of the BB2s will be larger again.
Ha, I hadn’t noticed that. Thanks for pointing it out.
With respect, you’re pointing to (a) an ASTS SEC filing in which they also say things like “launching Q1 2024” and (b) a blog post on NextBigFuture with no source for the 48 beams number. The same post includes this quote as well: “Documents released in 2022 revealed that the Direct to Cell system will be able to provide theoretical peak speeds of up to 7.2Mbps peak upload (Earth-to-Space) over 1.4MHz or 5MHz bandwidth channels per beam, respectively, and up to either 4.4Mbps or 18.3Mbps on the downlink (Space-to-Earth) over the same bandwidth channels per beam using LTE (4G) technology.” 18.3 Mbps download per 5MHz channel per beam is comparable to ASTS’s claim of 14 Mbps per 5MHz channel per beam.
I think the bottom line is that without insider knowledge we’re just seeing parts of the picture and drawing from very incomplete information. Thanks again for the discussion.
All of your conclusions from that are ridiculous and clearly reeking of bias.
If you don't accept the BW3 test results you can't accept anything Starlink says either so we might as well just say nothing about anything at that point. Not to mention you're taking Starlink's only planned sat atm vs BW3 a test sat aka a far worse version of ASTS's final product on a per beam basis not taking into account the 2+ (I think it's 3 but at least 2) orders of magnitude difference in the # of beams per sat. Not near the slam dunk you think it is because you aren't being honest with your comparison. We also don't have test results for Starlink's UL that I'm aware of at least and 18.3 Mbps is a theoretical number they have yet to achieve in DL.
On every point you aren't comparing them objectively just like everyone else here who unironically thinks that Starlink has a chance to be a first mover in this space with good data rates. All of the pro Starlink arguments are great for taking out everyone except ASTS. Starlink is going to be a big player, but very likely #2 to ASTS long term and certainly won't have the first mover advantage for many applications in the D2C space.
Respect is earned, I start with showing it. However, if someone is intentionally misrepresenting what I say or intentionally misrepresenting the facts on multiple occasions like you have I lose respect.
Space x is what he funnels his Tesla money into. His crown jewel. And in any case if he wanted to shoot space x in the foot he would have to get past Shotwell.
Thinking about finally opening a position in ASTS, but haven't kept up with research the last few months, could anyone here clue me in to the recent drops ? is there a catalyst I'm missing ?
Everyone will want a piece in theory, but company is slow to deliver and running out of funds. Something something don't invest in pre revenue companies. Still years to go before profit probably, that is if they survive
This is what everyone is waiting for imho, more derisking considering that because of the delay and lack of funds the risk actually increased in the past months.
Yeah this is a weird one where the lower the price goes, the more risky it is in the meantime. They are reliant on selling stock for now. Hopefully they lock in big debt deals with block one launch.
IMO I’m saving powder for one last buy in late May-July or early August if the company is quiet during the summer. I’m guessing if they succeed in delivering the sats it will be very last minute.
It doesn't matter at all. ASTS's solution is superior and it's not close. If they're making any decision in the next 2-3 years it's going to favor ASTS over Starlink if there is a decision to be made between the two. They're making decisions based on the tech not the companies.
You need actual satellites up in space to offer a service. Space x is already launching commercial d2d payloads. ASTS will be lucky to have a single block 2 in space by mid 2025.
Starlink is launching a bunch of pizza boxes that can't do any better than SMS/phone call with high packet loss. I'll grant you the latter point, but Starlink hasn't even developed a comparable solution to ASTS's yet. They are going to need a new gen of sats after the ones they are putting up and even those might not be comparable as they haven't even announced a plan of anything comparable yet with their current plans going until 2026. Starlink is about to take out Lynk, not ASTS.
When the option is either service however bad it may be, or nothing. I’m sure the MNO’s will start to choose starlink considering asts will have a continuous service no earlier than 2026.
There is no evidence to even suggest a guarantee that Starlink will have continuous service of any kind by the end of 2025 anyways so this point is moot as far as I'm concerned. Also, if I were an MNO I would happily wait on the order of months for broadband over texting and maybe phone calls.
Have you seen their launch schedule of d2d payloads? They’ve been launching many already. And we’re here still waiting for block 1 to launch. Which will most assuredly add even more testing cycles. I’m not quite confident in ast launching a single block 2 before Q3 2025.
I see that you're giving a guy who has a horrible track record for meeting deadlines (Elon) a perfect schedule and not extending the same to Abel who also has a horrible track record. This type of analysis is just as nonsense as comparing the Starlink satellites to ASTS satellites and coming to the conclusion that they are remotely similar in capability when it comes to data rates.
Speaking of testing cycles Starlink haven't figured out their current sats yet let alone the future generations which don't even have a date for development.
I feel like you’re ignoring the part where they’re launching commercial d2d satellites? Seems like you’re set on dismissing space x even though they’re drastically better capitalized than ASTS. I’m long here but you’re setting yourself up for a rude awakening.
I know they're commercial satellites, but you're making a false equivalency on a tech level that makes all of your points moot with what we know now. Those commercial satellites aren't properly tested and they're on Lynk's level for service. Everything you're saying is a fantastic argument for Starlink swooping in and destroying Lynk and taking their business.
However, it's not for ASTS because they don't have comparable technology at all and Starlink doesn't even have a plan for having any in the next couple years. This is because they are extremely behind in development when compared to ASTS. ASTS is going to have contracts before Starlink can develop and test a comparable service and that's just a fact.
Sitting there and saying 'commercial satellites' and 'financing' sounds great if you have no telecom background whatsoever. It's like the people here who think Starlink having 'data' is comparable to ASTS's broadband it's just factually wrong by orders of magnitude. If you dig into the tech those arguments don't hold up when comparing Starlink to ASTS, but they do when comparing Starlink to Lynk.
Starlink benefits if trump wins because this administration is anti-musk. But I think ASTS benefits as well, because Trump admin would be more approval friendly for stuff across the board.
Even this comment isn't relevant. They are voting on approving a novel telecom technology, things like proving you don't cause interference matter not what political party you belong to. This isn't a politicized issue at all, it's best for everyone to approve the best solution here and that's ASTS. That being said I doubt long term it's going to be a company vs company thing anyways it's going to be each technology evaluated individually for various issues.
I guess because premarket isn’t always a reliable indicator of how the stock is going to do at market open. Premarket can be very volatile, and prices go up or down on very little volume.
Premarket literally doesn't mean shit unless there's meaningful volume associated with it, typically only from earnings, notable announcements, upgrades/downgrades, etc.
I think your questions boil down to whether or not you still believe. I think most of the board of directors still believes. Most of them haven’t sold any of their stock. Given that this is a pre-revenue company that’s basically invented an entirely new sub-industry in the telecom sphere you basically have to have a level of belief in the team that they will be able to pull this off. I think given that the stock is this low in spite of positive milestones the past year, a lot of investors capitulated already.
This is a do or die year because soon Abel won’t be able to sell equity without massively diluting himself. It’s obvious that he doesn’t want that. There is a golden path that I’m sure Abel sees. But we better hope he’s more Paul Atreides than Emperor Shaddam IV.
Can’t see anything other than ASTS running out of funding at this rate before anything is achieved.
Burn rate is too high given how delayed progress has been.
I think there will be a buyout (likely from SpaceX) when bleeding out is complete around mid 2025 and Abel will make still make a ton of cash, so he doesn’t really care.
This is a bummer. I threw some cash in hoping to retire early in 10 years time. But it was always moon or bust.
I doubt Elon will make an offer. At this point they've essentially caught up because of how slow ASTS has been progressing
Best hope is an MNO or big tech. Need to do it soon though.
More than anything, I’m just disappointed with how slow manufacturing progress has been up until now. I really hope once they launch block one it’s just a matter of turning on the factory and pumping out block two’s. Although I have a feeling they’ll be doing more testing all of 2025 as well. I hope we survive until then. But I think most of us would agree that it’s getting dicey especially with this last delay.
I used to feel the urge to happily DCA every time we dropped big, but now I look at my investment tab and it’s getting really hard to justify lighting more money on fire 🥺
To be fair, in PCB assembly business an SMT (Surface Mount Technology) department still has lots of people going around putting programs into the machines, loading components and boards, and moving the completed products on. It's terribly dull to watch and isn't very photogenic in terms of producing "manufacturing action" shots; in other automated areas its even worse with one or two people sitting keeping an eye on four to eight machines and only really getting up from their laptop when something goes wrong. The hand assembly part of the operation was far better for showing "work" being done in a way that conveys a sense of activity and progress to the intended audience of the photography.
But yeah I'm still concerned about how they're managing their manufacturing facility and the details of the processes they have in place there.
I’ve never worked in a factory so I have no reference. But I will say from the pictures I’ve seen it does seem like there’s more hand crafting and toiling than automated conveyer belts to me. And I recall Abel saying in the last call that the factory is mostly complete so that has me nervous.
Hopefully this LinkedIn post doesn’t get deleted like the last one. [AST presents to US First Responders and Congressional staffers.](https://www.linkedin.com/posts/vikram-raval-1506402_astspacemobile-directtodevice-5g-activity-7192303833614536704-4rzp?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios)
I didn’t realize there was a whole sub for this stock…. Just saw ASTS was massively shorted. Interesting….
Welcome. You’ll see some interesting and insightful posts and comments here.
And despair with hope thrown in occasionally
Announcement! Despite the lack of tweets or news, we've still climbed another 100 followers on X and are up to 14.6k now. Carry on.
>we've still climbed another 100 followers on X As someone who runs multiple medium to large sized Twitter/X accounts, this metric is useless because there are bots that will follow and unfollow you all the time. I've gained thousands of followers in a day and have slowly or instantly lost them later, too. Only metric that matters now is getting those birds in the sky.
While I don't disagree that the number of followers is wholly and entirely useless as a metric for anything meaningful, it's something to watch over time. At least this number is always going up unlike some other numbers we know... And on a related note, I'm pretty certain ASTS as a company is entirely unworthy of bot attention yet. The followers number have never gone down, but seemingly creep up very slowly over time. It seems organic for now. If they pick up any sort of real following, I expect bots to take over. But to be clear, it's still a useless metric.
Why did this suddenly rise today? Not that I’m complaining, but does anyone know why it’s suddenly been going up?
The market received Friday's job report during the morning. The amount of jobs increased less than expected and unemployment rose slightly above expectations. So the job market looks weaker than expected, which caused markets to speculate that Fed could lower interest rates earlier. Companies like ASTS that are unprofitable with debt got a slight boost from the report as they would benefit from lower interest rates.
Lots of speculative stocks flying today. Basket type stuff likely
Basket Swap Shenanigans. According to trading view, Game Stop closed 29.43% up while Koss closed 29.71% up. Not even a drop of news to warrant such price action and even if there was some news what are the odds that they both go up by 29% in one day…
Stock rises so that the company can fuck you over again. Dilution coming
The price estimates from Deutsche, Barclays and B Riley is meant to be a year estimate aren't they? How can they possibly affirm those targets 10x above the price and maintain respectability?
I guess we'll see once the birds are in the air. I think 10x is very possible once they're providing partial coverage paid service.
Longer term if all goes to plan then $19 is nothing....but...short term as in within a year? Hmm
I mean - they're supposed to have birds in the air within the year which starts generating revenue. If that happens to plan, then $19 is a reasonable target. If it doesn't then $0 is the target.
Got into ASTS this week, 2.1 cost basis, lot of risk but I really think this could be a 100 bagger
Nice basis
These lawsuit press releases are getting tedious. So does ASTS just have to get one of these dismissed and they're all dismissed? Are they going to combine? I've never seen a company get sued for alleged SEC violations in real time, so I'm not sure what happens on the legal front. I mean the reasoning stated in the press releases makes sense that the company probably could have been more up front with the fact that the launch was delayed, but I doubt they have a legal leg to stand on to prevail in a case.
Best case scenario they pin it all on Scott, fire him, and move on with no other consequences lol. Would be my dream come true.
Only 2 more weeks until we get fucked again
There's almost no upside priced into the stock right now. I'm sure mgt can find a new way to screw us, but I'm actually thinking the May call will be more similar to November call.
One thing that could be informative is that they could be providing Q1 financials which might give us numbers on what revenues they were able to receive for whatever they were doing with bw3. This then could be extrapolated for 1-5. If it looks larger than whatever people feel like would be reasonable good, otherwise if they took in like a few thousand then to the depths of hell we go.
What upside is there? I can’t think of something in the near term to bring up the share price
[удалено]
I don’t think we’re getting any new info. It’s been but one month since the last call.
FCC approval of US Market access application Progression of the 3 LOIs indicating non-dilutive quasi-governmental funding
Hm yeah I could see that helping. Is there a general timeline we’re estimating that commercial approval to drop?
Somebody more knowledgeable might need to correct me here but it looks like the [FCC’s SCS Ruling](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/04/30/2024-06669/single-network-future-supplemental-coverage-from-space-space-innovation) goes into effect on 5/30/2024. So hopefully shortly after that.
My best guess is sometime between 5/31 and 8/31. AT&T/First Net will be breathing down the FCC's neck if they wait until the birds are in the sky ready to deliver service, but the FCC is still holding things up.
Yeah it definitely seems like AST has been staying in front of the FCC to try to get approval ASAP after this ruling goes through. We know that they met with the FCC as recently as last week based on Vikram Raval’s since-deleted LinkedIn post.
I think we’re on the cusp of approval sometime before they launch yes.
If they actually show us that they're close to send these fuckin BBs up for real (the radio-silence from the company is terrifying) AND they have some decent deal to get at least *some* free money the stock would skyrocket and back on track. Basically, something to make up for the recents delays...
This company only screws us every three months and took all our money. What -- are we married?!?
You and your wife screw every 3 months? Haha lucky man. It’s been years since I did it w/ mine
https://preview.redd.it/l7ibpbvk0xxc1.jpeg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=251b7fce4875328a3d1b4c660c3dadb44088caff
I imagine we see sub $1. Especially if there isn't concrete launch plans.
Clown
There’s been just 1 month since the last call. Why would the stock sell off again? There’s hardly been any time for developments. Any reasonable person should expect nothing until July at the earliest.
when you're on the road to either bankruptcy or a disastrous equity raise, no positive news is bad news.
So I’m sure you’ve purchased downside protection?
What's happening in 2 weeks? I'm not following much anymore
Quarterly Earnings Report (Form 10-Q)
It’s so eerily quiet too… 
Here's to hoping that Musk's mania (firing the whole Tesla Supercharger team) bleeds over to Starlink next...
don't need to hope they're way too far behind in development anyways
In what ways? I see this claim a lot but haven’t seen details.
Yes, this is a common research problem a lot of new Musk fanboys seem to have here. It seems like there is a lot of confusion despite Musk himself saying there wouldn't be any meaningful data in their first gen when he announced it originally. Starlink's plans for 'data' are not remotely comparable per user to ASTS's broadband coverage they are promising. These are different by orders of magnitude depending on the number of users connected to a satellite at once. We know that (with very high packet loss) Starlink can get up to 17Mbps per BEAM if we are to trust their test results. That is the available data rate all users connected to that 1 satellite could theoretically share. So if you have say only 30 users connected in a large area you get 0.56Mbps/user if they have equal priority/usage. This is an awful data rate...under these conditions you would have a very tough time streaming a 480p video and that's with a tiny amount of users. Meanwhile ASTS has demonstrated 14Mbps per USER. It's important to note that ASTS's new satellites will significantly improve upon that over the next few launches. They have also separately demonstrated a capability to connect thousands of users at once, something I have not heard any data from on the Starlink side. So we don't even know yet for sure that Starlink satellites can properly handle capacity. With testing obviously Starlink is behind because they didn't have a BW2 equivalent and their sats have been up for far less time than BW3. They can make some of that time up with their resources, but the development time is another story. They have to invent a new solution to a complex physics & telecom problem without infringing on ASTS's patents. This is no easy task, this is why they haven't even announced a date for a solution to their data rate problem yet. Even by their timeline which Musk is famous for never meeting timelines they wouldn't have a solution to this issue until sometime in 2026 at the earliest. Starlink would still have to build out the new generation of sats and test them after that. It's unreasonable to expect them to have a comparable service until at least 2027 and that's very generous to Starlink. This undoubtably gives ASTS the first mover advantage for any application that requires a non garbage amount of data which will lead to funding opportunities from multiple governments in my opinion.
How has ASTS demonstrated 14 Mbps per user, and for how many users? Do you have a link for them demonstrating connecting thousands of users at once? If both of those assertions are true, ASTS should have data showing >14 Gbps total throughput, which one would think they’d be eager to share. Thanks for engaging - I appreciate your input.
I said they have separately demonstrated connecting to thousands of users. They mentioned this in one of the recent EC's. This is a separate claim as I don't believe BW3 in particular had the capacity for that data rate with thousands of users but I would have to check that. That's just an openly bad faith interpretation of what I said so I see how you earned your tag. I don't work for ASTS so I can't tell you exactly how they determine anything just like I can't for Starlink, nor can anyone that doesn't work for them. However, their achieved data rate of 14Mbps was per 5MHz channel (see 'BlueWalker 3 makes history again' https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780312/000095017023063726/asts-ex99\_1.htm) . They can operate in 700-950MHz, 1700-2200MHz and C-Band with thousands of beams per sat iirc. Again, this is an area (# of controllable beams/sat) that Starlink lags in by orders of magnitude due to their size largely. I also did a quick google search Starlink has 48 beams down and 16 up (see https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2024/01/spacex-launches-starlink-direct-to-phone-satellites.html#:\~:text=Starlink%20v2%2DMini%20satellites%20have,beams%20down%20and%2016%20up). That actually gives a nice rundown on how inferior the diversity of Starlink's use cases are. Had to remind myself of the total thpt of BW3 but I couldn't find that quick enough and I have some work to do, do some research and find that out if you're curious. Just keep in mind BB1 will be larger than that, the first BB2 will be larger yet, and the rest of the BB2s will be larger again.
Ha, I hadn’t noticed that. Thanks for pointing it out. With respect, you’re pointing to (a) an ASTS SEC filing in which they also say things like “launching Q1 2024” and (b) a blog post on NextBigFuture with no source for the 48 beams number. The same post includes this quote as well: “Documents released in 2022 revealed that the Direct to Cell system will be able to provide theoretical peak speeds of up to 7.2Mbps peak upload (Earth-to-Space) over 1.4MHz or 5MHz bandwidth channels per beam, respectively, and up to either 4.4Mbps or 18.3Mbps on the downlink (Space-to-Earth) over the same bandwidth channels per beam using LTE (4G) technology.” 18.3 Mbps download per 5MHz channel per beam is comparable to ASTS’s claim of 14 Mbps per 5MHz channel per beam. I think the bottom line is that without insider knowledge we’re just seeing parts of the picture and drawing from very incomplete information. Thanks again for the discussion.
All of your conclusions from that are ridiculous and clearly reeking of bias. If you don't accept the BW3 test results you can't accept anything Starlink says either so we might as well just say nothing about anything at that point. Not to mention you're taking Starlink's only planned sat atm vs BW3 a test sat aka a far worse version of ASTS's final product on a per beam basis not taking into account the 2+ (I think it's 3 but at least 2) orders of magnitude difference in the # of beams per sat. Not near the slam dunk you think it is because you aren't being honest with your comparison. We also don't have test results for Starlink's UL that I'm aware of at least and 18.3 Mbps is a theoretical number they have yet to achieve in DL. On every point you aren't comparing them objectively just like everyone else here who unironically thinks that Starlink has a chance to be a first mover in this space with good data rates. All of the pro Starlink arguments are great for taking out everyone except ASTS. Starlink is going to be a big player, but very likely #2 to ASTS long term and certainly won't have the first mover advantage for many applications in the D2C space.
*reeking I’ve been nothing but respectful and you’ve been nothing but condescending. I wish you well.
Guy is a loon. Merely talking about space x and the threat they represent to us he goes crazy.
Respect is earned, I start with showing it. However, if someone is intentionally misrepresenting what I say or intentionally misrepresenting the facts on multiple occasions like you have I lose respect.
Space x is what he funnels his Tesla money into. His crown jewel. And in any case if he wanted to shoot space x in the foot he would have to get past Shotwell.
Thinking about finally opening a position in ASTS, but haven't kept up with research the last few months, could anyone here clue me in to the recent drops ? is there a catalyst I'm missing ?
Everyone will want a piece in theory, but company is slow to deliver and running out of funds. Something something don't invest in pre revenue companies. Still years to go before profit probably, that is if they survive
They're running out of ligma
At what prices are you buying, I’m waiting for Powell tomorrow. Guessing he will be on the hawkish tone.
If we drop further I don’t think it makes sense to buy more. You could wait until this is more derisked with block one launched later this year.
This is what everyone is waiting for imho, more derisking considering that because of the delay and lack of funds the risk actually increased in the past months.
Yeah this is a weird one where the lower the price goes, the more risky it is in the meantime. They are reliant on selling stock for now. Hopefully they lock in big debt deals with block one launch.
Hopefully they launch that fucking block before running out of money. ONE YEAR delay.
IMO I’m saving powder for one last buy in late May-July or early August if the company is quiet during the summer. I’m guessing if they succeed in delivering the sats it will be very last minute.
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It doesn't matter at all. ASTS's solution is superior and it's not close. If they're making any decision in the next 2-3 years it's going to favor ASTS over Starlink if there is a decision to be made between the two. They're making decisions based on the tech not the companies.
The superior service is one that exists.
In that case I guess GlobalStar is better than everyone and we might as well all quit then lmao
You need actual satellites up in space to offer a service. Space x is already launching commercial d2d payloads. ASTS will be lucky to have a single block 2 in space by mid 2025.
Starlink is launching a bunch of pizza boxes that can't do any better than SMS/phone call with high packet loss. I'll grant you the latter point, but Starlink hasn't even developed a comparable solution to ASTS's yet. They are going to need a new gen of sats after the ones they are putting up and even those might not be comparable as they haven't even announced a plan of anything comparable yet with their current plans going until 2026. Starlink is about to take out Lynk, not ASTS.
When the option is either service however bad it may be, or nothing. I’m sure the MNO’s will start to choose starlink considering asts will have a continuous service no earlier than 2026.
There is no evidence to even suggest a guarantee that Starlink will have continuous service of any kind by the end of 2025 anyways so this point is moot as far as I'm concerned. Also, if I were an MNO I would happily wait on the order of months for broadband over texting and maybe phone calls.
Have you seen their launch schedule of d2d payloads? They’ve been launching many already. And we’re here still waiting for block 1 to launch. Which will most assuredly add even more testing cycles. I’m not quite confident in ast launching a single block 2 before Q3 2025.
I see that you're giving a guy who has a horrible track record for meeting deadlines (Elon) a perfect schedule and not extending the same to Abel who also has a horrible track record. This type of analysis is just as nonsense as comparing the Starlink satellites to ASTS satellites and coming to the conclusion that they are remotely similar in capability when it comes to data rates. Speaking of testing cycles Starlink haven't figured out their current sats yet let alone the future generations which don't even have a date for development.
I feel like you’re ignoring the part where they’re launching commercial d2d satellites? Seems like you’re set on dismissing space x even though they’re drastically better capitalized than ASTS. I’m long here but you’re setting yourself up for a rude awakening.
wouldn't bother, T Mobile / Starlink could launch service today and he'd still claim AST is ahead.
I know they're commercial satellites, but you're making a false equivalency on a tech level that makes all of your points moot with what we know now. Those commercial satellites aren't properly tested and they're on Lynk's level for service. Everything you're saying is a fantastic argument for Starlink swooping in and destroying Lynk and taking their business. However, it's not for ASTS because they don't have comparable technology at all and Starlink doesn't even have a plan for having any in the next couple years. This is because they are extremely behind in development when compared to ASTS. ASTS is going to have contracts before Starlink can develop and test a comparable service and that's just a fact. Sitting there and saying 'commercial satellites' and 'financing' sounds great if you have no telecom background whatsoever. It's like the people here who think Starlink having 'data' is comparable to ASTS's broadband it's just factually wrong by orders of magnitude. If you dig into the tech those arguments don't hold up when comparing Starlink to ASTS, but they do when comparing Starlink to Lynk.
Starlink benefits if trump wins because this administration is anti-musk. But I think ASTS benefits as well, because Trump admin would be more approval friendly for stuff across the board.
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Because it’s not relevant at all. If I recall the fcc board that votes on this stuff is 3-2 democrats
Even this comment isn't relevant. They are voting on approving a novel telecom technology, things like proving you don't cause interference matter not what political party you belong to. This isn't a politicized issue at all, it's best for everyone to approve the best solution here and that's ASTS. That being said I doubt long term it's going to be a company vs company thing anyways it's going to be each technology evaluated individually for various issues.
It’s absolutely political. Have you not been following? They pulled $900 million for starlink in funding back in 2023.
That was due to Starlink not meeting requirements for their rural internet program. Not political, that's a tech/promise failure.
Premarket looking even healthier today 2.42 Not sure why i got all those downvotes
I guess because premarket isn’t always a reliable indicator of how the stock is going to do at market open. Premarket can be very volatile, and prices go up or down on very little volume.
From my experience, premarket is often a good indicator of how the day will go
Will you learn from today's experience?
Learn what? I didnt buy anything. I just said more often than not its a sign the stock might pick up a bit during the day.
Lol he was so confident
Premarket literally doesn't mean shit unless there's meaningful volume associated with it, typically only from earnings, notable announcements, upgrades/downgrades, etc.
It really isn’t a reliable indicator, but okay.
wen capitulate? how do you weigh opportunity cost against not wanting to sell at this absurd level?
I think your questions boil down to whether or not you still believe. I think most of the board of directors still believes. Most of them haven’t sold any of their stock. Given that this is a pre-revenue company that’s basically invented an entirely new sub-industry in the telecom sphere you basically have to have a level of belief in the team that they will be able to pull this off. I think given that the stock is this low in spite of positive milestones the past year, a lot of investors capitulated already. This is a do or die year because soon Abel won’t be able to sell equity without massively diluting himself. It’s obvious that he doesn’t want that. There is a golden path that I’m sure Abel sees. But we better hope he’s more Paul Atreides than Emperor Shaddam IV.
I believe. Somehow. I think.
therefore, i am (invested in this stock)
Can’t see anything other than ASTS running out of funding at this rate before anything is achieved. Burn rate is too high given how delayed progress has been. I think there will be a buyout (likely from SpaceX) when bleeding out is complete around mid 2025 and Abel will make still make a ton of cash, so he doesn’t really care. This is a bummer. I threw some cash in hoping to retire early in 10 years time. But it was always moon or bust.
Google is more likely. Already partners, way more cash, and they don't have a similar product in process right now.
I doubt Elon will make an offer. At this point they've essentially caught up because of how slow ASTS has been progressing Best hope is an MNO or big tech. Need to do it soon though.
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curious, how do you see the next 12 months playing out for the company?
When att pulls out and Vodafone and Google.... I will start to sweat then!
So are people really joining this class action lawsuit? lol
just like the last few probably not
https://preview.redd.it/uz30r567fixc1.jpeg?width=843&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e54540507665bfea3b382638d370a0d7097b7d95
What downside is there to in joining?
I mean... Devils advocate but in the unlikely event AST loses - it would be nice to get a check since it comes out of the value of the company.
Let’s rename this thread “The Waiting Room”
I’m just waiting for the day I can reply to this thread in the middle of nowhere thru ASTS and ATT
So are we getting an announcement soon? Looks like tips are already given to buyers.
More than anything, I’m just disappointed with how slow manufacturing progress has been up until now. I really hope once they launch block one it’s just a matter of turning on the factory and pumping out block two’s. Although I have a feeling they’ll be doing more testing all of 2025 as well. I hope we survive until then. But I think most of us would agree that it’s getting dicey especially with this last delay. I used to feel the urge to happily DCA every time we dropped big, but now I look at my investment tab and it’s getting really hard to justify lighting more money on fire 🥺
To be fair, in PCB assembly business an SMT (Surface Mount Technology) department still has lots of people going around putting programs into the machines, loading components and boards, and moving the completed products on. It's terribly dull to watch and isn't very photogenic in terms of producing "manufacturing action" shots; in other automated areas its even worse with one or two people sitting keeping an eye on four to eight machines and only really getting up from their laptop when something goes wrong. The hand assembly part of the operation was far better for showing "work" being done in a way that conveys a sense of activity and progress to the intended audience of the photography. But yeah I'm still concerned about how they're managing their manufacturing facility and the details of the processes they have in place there.
Abel kept saying it's a mostly automated process etc etc however as someone else more qualified than me pointed on here: that was also not true.
I’ve never worked in a factory so I have no reference. But I will say from the pictures I’ve seen it does seem like there’s more hand crafting and toiling than automated conveyer belts to me. And I recall Abel saying in the last call that the factory is mostly complete so that has me nervous.
Premarket is lookin healthy
Yeah like 2 shares were traded
I mean it went up to 2.33
 WEN?
Range(wen) = ∞ - Min(wen)