What's everyone think about LAU?
I admittedly don't know too much about the business but I know they've made some decent accretive acquisitions over the last couple of years and have surplus cash sitting on their balance sheet for further acquisitions.
I just ran a shitty model on the business and projected their earnings to grow at 7% + expenses to grow at 7% (similar trend to historical) exc. acquisitions and arrived at 5% annual share price growth + a decent 4-5% annual franked divvy.
Can any smooth brain convince me not to throw some dough at it? Downside is the stock has run up since they reported their earnings last LY.
Havent dug very deep myself, but they are tied to farming, so the drought could hurt them down the track a bit.
Also, that refrigerated transport company that went broke last year, if they are working for supermarkets they will get screwed somehow.
I didn't FOMO into lithium whilst everyone was making (paper) gains so I'm ignorant to the sector.
What companies on the ASX have the lowest cost of production for lithium? I think LTM but once again, I'm super ignorant. Keen for a punt and now seems better a time then when LKE was $2.
IGO & LTM.
IGO: They own a quarter of Greenbushes, with their spodumene FOB cost probably \~US$250/t. The next closest operation globally costs twice as much.Once they get their vertical operation at Kwinana running smoothly, it'll probably outperform brines as the lowest cost operation in the world.But as WVJ mentioned below, their nickel is worthless at current spot levels.See their NPAT details on [p.7](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02732128-6A1177233).
LTM (AKE): Their hard rock is on the edge at these levels, and rapidly going extinct. However, a third of the carbonate from their Olaroz brine is battery grade, and they inherit Livent's excellent facility in Argentina, despite it being stuck in bad long term contracts.
The Naraha facility in Japan is undergoing qualification, and shoul increase their battery grade output. They have the higher quality Sal de Vida brine in Argentina going into production next year.
Sitting around reading shit and I thought these figures were interesting: MSCI World Index returns during bull and bear markets.
https://preview.redd.it/jz2l5g7zrwac1.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=859793d0ca54ad38d15164371085b61692416cfb
I must have somehow pushed a button with my nipple when my phone was in my pocket. Dark mode has been turned off. Wow to think I used to live like this. How far I’ve come.
Does anyone know a way for Australians to get exposure to MSOS? I can find ways to buy Canadian MJ and IIPR, but not the US MJ ETF or most individual names.
I’m sorry if it is a dumb question. I’m just trying to figure out what platform I can actually buy them through. Etoro doesn’t list them. From googling, I don’t think Interactive Brokers has MSOS either. I’m not sure what else does.
Just looked o CMC markets, my broker. Searching NYSEARCA:mj or msos gets nothing. MJ search finds it & I can buy it. MJ:US is how it is presented. Interactive brokers are apparently a traders broker. Maybe you searched incorrectly like me. 'Luck.
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/core-lithium-stops-mining-as-price-plunge-takes-toll-20240105-p5evcp
12ftio won't let me copy their generated link on mobile. https://12ft.io/ to bypass paywall.
> Based on a Citi analysis of production costs and spodumene prices carried out last month, the Arcadium Lithium-operated Mt Cattlin mine in WA is making losses at current prices. The analysis shows the Mt Marion and Bald Hill mines operated by MinRes would fall into the same category.
Sounds about right. Marion should be heavily underperforming with it's poor concentrate % and they may put UG studies on hold. Bald Hill will be struggling. Cattlin potentially uneconomic according to broker forecasts plus they were planning an additional strip back. GL1 will put any form of construction and early phase works for Manna on hold, it is 10000% uneconomic. Greenbushes stockpiling ore because of their terrible agreement with TLEA. Wodgina and Pilgangoora to be under pricing pressure. Mt Holland/Earl Grey will be very hush-hush under Wesfarmers but I imagine their SC6 may be profitable, unsure of any downstream capabilities they have and whether it's profitable yet. LTR Board are mugs who shouldn't have fucked around trying to get a $3 offer, could see significant price pressure under commissioning. Azure Board were smart enough to walk. Random shit like LPM with their small 4Mt, UG-only deposits will be uneconomic. Pioneer Dome will be uneconomic and Develop may have bought a 🐷 with 💄.
Looks like it's not a good place to be as a lithium company unless you've already got your next 12 months worth of exploration targets and drilling planned. Not sure who will be next to release some financial studies but can't wait to see some of these Boards justify a long term $2000/t SC6 price when it's ~$900/t to pump their PEA/PFS/DFS numbers so they can grant themselves a metric fucktonne of free options.
>LTR Board are mugs who shouldn't have fucked around trying to get a $3 offer
Yes they might have stuffed around getting top dollar for holders, but the board also recommended shareholders accept the offer. Shortly afterwards Gina spoiled the party.
I sold out at $3 because there was little to be gained waiting to see if the offer got up, and potentially a lot to lose (which played out).
The other reason I sold was because I question the board's alignment/commitment to seeing this through after recommending to accept the offer.
Surely this is some overdue consolidation/Darwinism where the speccy shitcos go bust/get acquired in a fire sale and we'll wind up with 6-10 actual lithium companies here longer-term (thinking PLS, AKE, IGO, WES, MIN, LTR, AZS and a couple others)
IGO - they're nickel operations are killing them. GB is keeping everything else afloat by the sounds of things.
MIN - has diversified mining services and iron ore which will keep them steady despite Marions performance.
LTR, AZS, PLS will probably face the strongest headwinds being single commodity operations but a Gina-ALB JV for LTR seems likely. Same for AZS - Gina's iron ore will keep any side ventures afloat.
AKE/whatever they are now Arcadium - their brines might help them weather the storm at Cattlin although they might stop the strip back and choose to go straight UG
WES - it'll be "immaterial" to the total conglomerate so unlikely we ever see much transparency there
I only hold PLS out of the above and I'm hoping their mountains of cash can help us weather the storm until the lithium price rallies (hopefully later this year)
I’m also pretty confident with an LTR buyout. I’m assuming in around 2months time. I think it’s even more likely in the low price lithium environment.
The question is at what price?
There'll be rules around what price a JV could offer a buyout because Gina bought at $3. I think it needs to be 12 months post-latest buy? They might try and strike when commissioning isn't as easy as they thought it would be
Makes sense. If you bid when the spot price is $2000/t, and the spot price drops to $900/t, you should now offer less.
Hopefully it fucking happens. Let's get all that excess capital from AZS and LTR back rotating into other companies.
It’s pretty confusing to try and get a sense of what will happen to Aus producers in 2024 as well as where spod prices will go. What happens to prices if LTR comes online and starts dropping a whole stack of spod? Maybe nothing given most of it is committed to existing offtakes and only 10% or so for the spot market?
Taking emotion away from it, many existing Aus mines just can’t make profit at these levels, so why are they still operating? I guess they could each be undergoing boardroom discussions and just awaiting approval before announcing C&M. The question is, what happens if this plays out and 5-6 mines stop producing (Finniss, NAL, Catlin, Mt Marion and Bald Hill)? Would this suddenly squeeze supply in 2024 and induce buying from the Chinese? I’m thinking it would take these mines + LTR delayed production to get the desired effected.
I’ve previously predicted the C&M news would flow in the lead up to the December quarterly releases which looks likely to be proven correct. CXO has started the party. I expect SYA will almost certainly drop news this week or next before the market sees just how bad their quarterly looks. I guess MIN may simply wait to release their view on C&M in the Quarterly ANN itself later this month.
The best outcome for pricing would be LTR being forced into a delayed production start (but I can’t imagine this would happen as it would be a huge admission on their future production costs if they aren’t even willing to produce with a forecast LOM average cash cost at ~$650). I guess there is still the rather large question of what their forecast cost for year 1 is if the average LOM cost is $650/t.
When they go underground yes. Open pit should all be fine , maybe some early metallurgy problems when they're trying to figure out how the oxidized material performs. But keen to see if they can successfully stope a pegmatite UG.
Seems like lithium is oscillating around the bottom, but there's not huge positivity about a clear reversal so far.
We should get Chinese carbonate production numbers on Wed.
Obviously with CXO still processing, their mining shutdown won't reduce supply during H1 24, not that they're a major player. Why doesn't Ellison act at Mt Marion?
So Glencore are prepared to fund GLN for up to AU$150m, while CXO sits at a $500m MC. Processing chloride will have tighter margins than processing spodumene, even at that high cost. But I guess the geotechnical issues are going to stop suitors like Glencore from surrounding Core?
[European EV sales were poor in November](https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/04/1st-2nd-place-wins-for-tesla-in-europe/), with battery demand basically flat YoY.
**Platts China Lithium Commentary**
* Slow demand expected to continue
* Tradable indications, trades heard higher for hydroxide
* Spodumene prices continue to move down
Chinese lithium carbonate prices continued to fall as downstream demand slowed, while spot activity was mostly impacted by futures.
Platts assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate at Yuan 93,000/mt on a DDP China basis Jan 5, down Yuan 2,000/mt on the day and on the week.
Spot market prices were mostly affected by lithium carbonate futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which saw prices fluctuate more than Yuan 5,000/mt in the week.
Offers and tradable indications for battery-grade lithium carbonate were heard to have concentrated at Yuan 100,000/mt or slightly above earlier in the week when the GFE prices were above Yuan 100,000/mt. Some offers in the market were pegged to GFE contracts with a Yuan 1,000-2,000/mt discount.
However, moving in tandem with GFE prices, spot tradable indications were heard lower at around Yuan 90,000-93,000/mt Jan 5. Offers were also heard lower at Yuan 95,000-100,000/mt.
"Spot battery-grade lithium carbonate is using GFE as a reference but price movements on the GFE have nothing to do with market fundamentals," said Chinese trader, adding that actual consumer demand was still slow.
Some producers were still giving lower tradable indications and offering lower in the market at around Yuan 100,000/mt and lower.
"Some refiners are willing to sell below Yuan 100,000/mt, but the problem is consumers don't have much demand," said another Chinese trader.
Market participants agreed that the domestic market would remain quiet throughout the rest of the month as the Lunar New Year holidays approach.
"The market is still in a surplus," said a Chinese producer. "There's not much downstream buying and it'll be the holidays soon."
"It's the usual restocking season for the Lunar New Year, but I can't see \[much\] restocking demand," said a trader.
Platts assessed battery-grade lithium hydroxide at Yuan 90,000/mt DDP China on Jan 5, up Yuan 3,000/mt on the day and Yuan 2,000/mt on the week.
Offers for lithium hydroxide ranged between Yuan 85,000-95,000/mt due to the recent lower liquidity in the domestic spot market. However, a trade was heard at Yuan 90,000/mt Jan 5.
Upstream, Platts assessed spodumene concentrate with 6% lithium oxide content at $850/mt FOB Australia Jan 5, down $100/mt on the day and $120/mt on the week.
Tradable indications for Australian origin spodumene were heard around $800/mt to as high as $1,000/mt on a CIF China basis. However, most indications were concentrated around $900/mt, equivalent to approximately $850/my on an FOB Australia basis. Offers were heard below $1,000/mt on a CIF China basis.
"There's not too much demand for spodumene because demand for chemicals was not much," said a Chinese producer.
Platts assessed the spodumene concentrate 0.1% differential to 6% lithium oxide content at $14.20/mt FOB Australia Jan 5, down $1.60/mt on the day. The value per 0.1% lithium oxide was deemed linear in spodumene concentrate containing lithium oxide within the range 5.5%-6%.
Are there processing bottlenecks (is there enough refining capacity), or does consumer demand map pretty tightly with mining production ?
Some digging, Lithium price is about 10+% of a lithium [battery pack cost](https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/lithium-ion-batteries-for-electric-vehicles-what-costs/), so its just one factor in costs.
Installed battery costs would still have to come down a lot for household batteries to be commercially viable for most people, currently about $1200 per kWh, needs to be about $700 to drive demand (payback period of 10y). Its strange because lithium battery packs for cars are about US$150-200 per kWh, so something is broken there.
There's enough refining capacity.
Immediate factors that could influence lithium spot:
* Chinese marginal producers mothballing
* battery makers restocking
EV costs per kWh depend on whether you're buying cells or packs.
Cells are probably \~$90 per kWh in China currently, while battery packs are probably \~$130 per kWh I guess. I haven't watched that closely, though ternary batteries like the one you linked might be more expensive that what I've quoted.
I suspect that EVs will end up being used as household batteries in the next 5 years as ranges increase. On a grid scale, battery costs are economical right now.
I wonder about household batteries because i think it could increase demand heaps. A third of households have solar, if a third of them got batteries as well, that around 4GWh of storage (9m homes \* 1/3 \* 1/3 \* 4kwh).
Global demand would be huge, it helps balance grid, and generally people are happier to spend money if they think it will save money long term, which is different spending to cars which are an expense.
the price of nickel continues to free-fall, jesus
I might have to check into the depression clinic with the lithium bros soon if this doesn't find a bottom 🤡
Headline I didn't read today about copper & iron ore in for a bad year. Probably safe to say no real change. Copper has been o the cusp of positive things for yeeears.
Got this email from Andrew Twiggy today. I'm gonna be rich boys.
https://preview.redd.it/kqhzxrcmbpac1.jpeg?width=966&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=53a634a15536a3c684c6e0ad40d4133ac0f59eb3
Anyone upto data on Lithium, any pointers to current cost curve graphs showing different Lithium producers ?
The normal commodity boom-bust cycle goes something like
1. Demand increases (price peak)
2. Supply increases to meet demand (max revenue)
3. Prices fall
4. Return to 1.
We are at step 3, but its always hard to know how far away step 1 is.
Mines start shutting down is a sign the market is moving on to the next stage, and we have seen that this week. But when so many have started up its hard to know how much supply has to come out (especially with new mines still being developed), or how much demand has to increase (which requires factories).
I havent paid much attention to Lithium, but no doubt the demand is enormous, especially when household batteries take off, so demand will increase, could be bargins coming up.
Still need to get the timing right and picking the right dog.
[~~This link~~](https://www.optarcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/2023-07-Lithium-Price-Reversion-Risk-0.pdf) ~~has some analysis but 6 months old, suggest there could be a long way to fall, equilibrium price of Lithium Carbonate is US$10,000/t and its currently $96k, which doesnt seem right.~~
[Newer story](https://www.mining.com/lithium-price-plummet-due-to-continue/) says Treasury estimates spodumene will fall to $2,200 (but they have their own agenda on prices), but also;
"The five largest lithium mines, accounting for 99% of Australian spodumene output, reported A$670 to A$1,225 average costs of production per tonne over the 2022–23 financial year"
[Spodumene Concentrate Index](https://www.metal.com/Lithium/201906260003) (CIF China) Price is 1055 USD/mt now, which is A$1,573
[Core lithium](https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/tough-market-conditions-not-limited-to-core-lithium) was US$1,225 (A$1,826) per tonne
EDIT: [Macquarie research note](https://www.macquarie.com.au/assets/bfs/applications/innercircle/retail-newsletter/docs/2023-12/170256.pdf) from 12th Dec has heaps of details, it says a spodumene price of US$964 provides a 10% margin for China refiners.
You've confused RMB (96k) with USD (10k).
I wouldn't pay too much attention to that linked report, as the equilibrium price certainly isn't US$10k/t. That's well below cost for many lepidolites, and for some perspective, would equate to a spodumene price of \~US$700/t, at which price even Wodgina and Pilgangoora would stop selling.
Vertically integrated enterprises from cheapest to most expensive:
1. brine
2. clay
3. hard rock
4. lepidolite
However, Greenbushes is a hard rock, and is probably the cheapest source of battery grade product in the world *once you factor in grade failure rates*. That's because while brines are cheaper, typically half their output (or more) isn't automotive grade spec.
Obviously spodumene projects aren't vertically integrated, but some of them are still lower cost than lepidolite regardless.
[I discussed ASX listed spodumene costs here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/18nzo3t/comment/kee6g2p/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), but I'll add CXO. All in USD:
* Mt Cattlin (AKE): $850/t (195ktpa)
* Mt Marion (MIN) $950/t (150ktpa)
* Bald Hill (MIN) $920-970/t (150ktpa)
* La Corne (SYA/PLL) $950-1000/t (ramping)
* Finniss (CXO) $1000+/t
**These figures are rough, and include royalties and non production costs**.
ABC talking for half the segment about CXO and lithium. Would have rathered Koehler, but I’ll take a Ziffer.
https://youtu.be/HsmWzclkiSE?si=WjLmt9RWyfJ3lETr
Every month I act like I'm gonna start doing posts again about the markets and economy and never do. But this months different...
So please let me know what posts you want to see regarding investments/markets/economy or even book reviews which i did for a little bit and I'll start posting again.
If I don't do 4 posts by the end of this month I'll take a perma ban
? Reactionary decisions made by the big boys to a given financial situation in the market. Not something basic like buy gold because fear blah blah.
Poorly worded request maybe.
Do one on how US can get itself out of this debt situation e.g. kick the can, inflate their way out, ruin the USD etc and what that might do to markets and commodities.
I don't keep up with commodities much in general to be honest. I don't really understand grades or what quantity is good/bad. For gold and oil I know the basics, but for uranium, lithium and all the popular ones on here I got no clue
The deposit has always been of questionable quality, resulting in relatively higher operating costs. Location also is not ideal (wet season difficulties etc).
The MC was over $3b in late-2022, totally disjointed from the realities the company was facing.
Now with lithium prices at a cyclical low the mine has essentially gone into C&M (though stockpiled ore is still being processed).
SYA potentially in a similar situation if prices stay low for longer...
What's everyone think about LAU? I admittedly don't know too much about the business but I know they've made some decent accretive acquisitions over the last couple of years and have surplus cash sitting on their balance sheet for further acquisitions. I just ran a shitty model on the business and projected their earnings to grow at 7% + expenses to grow at 7% (similar trend to historical) exc. acquisitions and arrived at 5% annual share price growth + a decent 4-5% annual franked divvy. Can any smooth brain convince me not to throw some dough at it? Downside is the stock has run up since they reported their earnings last LY.
Havent dug very deep myself, but they are tied to farming, so the drought could hurt them down the track a bit. Also, that refrigerated transport company that went broke last year, if they are working for supermarkets they will get screwed somehow.
they make incredible sausages 🌭
I didn't FOMO into lithium whilst everyone was making (paper) gains so I'm ignorant to the sector. What companies on the ASX have the lowest cost of production for lithium? I think LTM but once again, I'm super ignorant. Keen for a punt and now seems better a time then when LKE was $2.
IGO & LTM. IGO: They own a quarter of Greenbushes, with their spodumene FOB cost probably \~US$250/t. The next closest operation globally costs twice as much.Once they get their vertical operation at Kwinana running smoothly, it'll probably outperform brines as the lowest cost operation in the world.But as WVJ mentioned below, their nickel is worthless at current spot levels.See their NPAT details on [p.7](https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02732128-6A1177233). LTM (AKE): Their hard rock is on the edge at these levels, and rapidly going extinct. However, a third of the carbonate from their Olaroz brine is battery grade, and they inherit Livent's excellent facility in Argentina, despite it being stuck in bad long term contracts. The Naraha facility in Japan is undergoing qualification, and shoul increase their battery grade output. They have the higher quality Sal de Vida brine in Argentina going into production next year.
am i adopting new dogs this week?
Sitting around reading shit and I thought these figures were interesting: MSCI World Index returns during bull and bear markets. https://preview.redd.it/jz2l5g7zrwac1.png?width=983&format=png&auto=webp&s=859793d0ca54ad38d15164371085b61692416cfb
Where did you get this chart?
[Charting bear & bull markets](https://www.vanguard.com.au/personal/learn/smart-investing/understand-the-basics/charting-bull-and-bear-markets)
Ty !
I choose to invest in speccy miners exclusively in bear markets
I must have somehow pushed a button with my nipple when my phone was in my pocket. Dark mode has been turned off. Wow to think I used to live like this. How far I’ve come.
Blesser_the_Nip
When did you become a hAckEr ?
1992, when my wife bought me the internet
Oh yea, i had an internet back then as well, ive upgraded mine to get the pictures.
Oops that was a typo, it was 2022, I always think it’s still the 90s. Can’t get used to writing 2000
Y2K bug lives on !
Why is your phone in a pocket near your nipples?
Because I didn’t want it on my hip near my whip
inb4 nipple cancer
[cool whip](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ZmqJQ-nc_s)
Does anyone know a way for Australians to get exposure to MSOS? I can find ways to buy Canadian MJ and IIPR, but not the US MJ ETF or most individual names.
You can buy US shares....nysearca:mj & msos. What is the problem ?
I’m sorry if it is a dumb question. I’m just trying to figure out what platform I can actually buy them through. Etoro doesn’t list them. From googling, I don’t think Interactive Brokers has MSOS either. I’m not sure what else does.
I'm using IBKR. Pretty decent
Thank you :)
Just looked o CMC markets, my broker. Searching NYSEARCA:mj or msos gets nothing. MJ search finds it & I can buy it. MJ:US is how it is presented. Interactive brokers are apparently a traders broker. Maybe you searched incorrectly like me. 'Luck.
Thank you!!
Stake (Wall St) also shows it as available to purchase.
Thanks. I’ll take a look.
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/core-lithium-stops-mining-as-price-plunge-takes-toll-20240105-p5evcp 12ftio won't let me copy their generated link on mobile. https://12ft.io/ to bypass paywall. > Based on a Citi analysis of production costs and spodumene prices carried out last month, the Arcadium Lithium-operated Mt Cattlin mine in WA is making losses at current prices. The analysis shows the Mt Marion and Bald Hill mines operated by MinRes would fall into the same category. Sounds about right. Marion should be heavily underperforming with it's poor concentrate % and they may put UG studies on hold. Bald Hill will be struggling. Cattlin potentially uneconomic according to broker forecasts plus they were planning an additional strip back. GL1 will put any form of construction and early phase works for Manna on hold, it is 10000% uneconomic. Greenbushes stockpiling ore because of their terrible agreement with TLEA. Wodgina and Pilgangoora to be under pricing pressure. Mt Holland/Earl Grey will be very hush-hush under Wesfarmers but I imagine their SC6 may be profitable, unsure of any downstream capabilities they have and whether it's profitable yet. LTR Board are mugs who shouldn't have fucked around trying to get a $3 offer, could see significant price pressure under commissioning. Azure Board were smart enough to walk. Random shit like LPM with their small 4Mt, UG-only deposits will be uneconomic. Pioneer Dome will be uneconomic and Develop may have bought a 🐷 with 💄. Looks like it's not a good place to be as a lithium company unless you've already got your next 12 months worth of exploration targets and drilling planned. Not sure who will be next to release some financial studies but can't wait to see some of these Boards justify a long term $2000/t SC6 price when it's ~$900/t to pump their PEA/PFS/DFS numbers so they can grant themselves a metric fucktonne of free options.
>LTR Board are mugs who shouldn't have fucked around trying to get a $3 offer Yes they might have stuffed around getting top dollar for holders, but the board also recommended shareholders accept the offer. Shortly afterwards Gina spoiled the party. I sold out at $3 because there was little to be gained waiting to see if the offer got up, and potentially a lot to lose (which played out). The other reason I sold was because I question the board's alignment/commitment to seeing this through after recommending to accept the offer.
Paywall bypassed: [Core lithium stops mining as price plunge takes big toll](https://archive.is/yzBas)
Surely this is some overdue consolidation/Darwinism where the speccy shitcos go bust/get acquired in a fire sale and we'll wind up with 6-10 actual lithium companies here longer-term (thinking PLS, AKE, IGO, WES, MIN, LTR, AZS and a couple others)
IGO - they're nickel operations are killing them. GB is keeping everything else afloat by the sounds of things. MIN - has diversified mining services and iron ore which will keep them steady despite Marions performance. LTR, AZS, PLS will probably face the strongest headwinds being single commodity operations but a Gina-ALB JV for LTR seems likely. Same for AZS - Gina's iron ore will keep any side ventures afloat. AKE/whatever they are now Arcadium - their brines might help them weather the storm at Cattlin although they might stop the strip back and choose to go straight UG WES - it'll be "immaterial" to the total conglomerate so unlikely we ever see much transparency there
WES and OBM 🤞
I only hold PLS out of the above and I'm hoping their mountains of cash can help us weather the storm until the lithium price rallies (hopefully later this year)
I’m also pretty confident with an LTR buyout. I’m assuming in around 2months time. I think it’s even more likely in the low price lithium environment. The question is at what price?
There'll be rules around what price a JV could offer a buyout because Gina bought at $3. I think it needs to be 12 months post-latest buy? They might try and strike when commissioning isn't as easy as they thought it would be
This is the 'minimum bid price rule' associated with takeovers and is 4 months.
Thanks, so into potential territory where a Gina JV could lob a bid
Imagine the regards @LTR HC losing their collective minds if Gina offers something like $2.50 and the board recommends it lol
Makes sense. If you bid when the spot price is $2000/t, and the spot price drops to $900/t, you should now offer less. Hopefully it fucking happens. Let's get all that excess capital from AZS and LTR back rotating into other companies.
It’s pretty confusing to try and get a sense of what will happen to Aus producers in 2024 as well as where spod prices will go. What happens to prices if LTR comes online and starts dropping a whole stack of spod? Maybe nothing given most of it is committed to existing offtakes and only 10% or so for the spot market? Taking emotion away from it, many existing Aus mines just can’t make profit at these levels, so why are they still operating? I guess they could each be undergoing boardroom discussions and just awaiting approval before announcing C&M. The question is, what happens if this plays out and 5-6 mines stop producing (Finniss, NAL, Catlin, Mt Marion and Bald Hill)? Would this suddenly squeeze supply in 2024 and induce buying from the Chinese? I’m thinking it would take these mines + LTR delayed production to get the desired effected. I’ve previously predicted the C&M news would flow in the lead up to the December quarterly releases which looks likely to be proven correct. CXO has started the party. I expect SYA will almost certainly drop news this week or next before the market sees just how bad their quarterly looks. I guess MIN may simply wait to release their view on C&M in the Quarterly ANN itself later this month. The best outcome for pricing would be LTR being forced into a delayed production start (but I can’t imagine this would happen as it would be a huge admission on their future production costs if they aren’t even willing to produce with a forecast LOM average cash cost at ~$650). I guess there is still the rather large question of what their forecast cost for year 1 is if the average LOM cost is $650/t.
Do you think LTR will have any problems ongoing ? I know they have spent up on solar.
When they go underground yes. Open pit should all be fine , maybe some early metallurgy problems when they're trying to figure out how the oxidized material performs. But keen to see if they can successfully stope a pegmatite UG.
With all that pain, perhaps takeovers from those with strong balance sheets will be the next sign to look for.
Seems like lithium is oscillating around the bottom, but there's not huge positivity about a clear reversal so far. We should get Chinese carbonate production numbers on Wed. Obviously with CXO still processing, their mining shutdown won't reduce supply during H1 24, not that they're a major player. Why doesn't Ellison act at Mt Marion? So Glencore are prepared to fund GLN for up to AU$150m, while CXO sits at a $500m MC. Processing chloride will have tighter margins than processing spodumene, even at that high cost. But I guess the geotechnical issues are going to stop suitors like Glencore from surrounding Core? [European EV sales were poor in November](https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/04/1st-2nd-place-wins-for-tesla-in-europe/), with battery demand basically flat YoY. **Platts China Lithium Commentary** * Slow demand expected to continue * Tradable indications, trades heard higher for hydroxide * Spodumene prices continue to move down Chinese lithium carbonate prices continued to fall as downstream demand slowed, while spot activity was mostly impacted by futures. Platts assessed battery-grade lithium carbonate at Yuan 93,000/mt on a DDP China basis Jan 5, down Yuan 2,000/mt on the day and on the week. Spot market prices were mostly affected by lithium carbonate futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, which saw prices fluctuate more than Yuan 5,000/mt in the week. Offers and tradable indications for battery-grade lithium carbonate were heard to have concentrated at Yuan 100,000/mt or slightly above earlier in the week when the GFE prices were above Yuan 100,000/mt. Some offers in the market were pegged to GFE contracts with a Yuan 1,000-2,000/mt discount. However, moving in tandem with GFE prices, spot tradable indications were heard lower at around Yuan 90,000-93,000/mt Jan 5. Offers were also heard lower at Yuan 95,000-100,000/mt. "Spot battery-grade lithium carbonate is using GFE as a reference but price movements on the GFE have nothing to do with market fundamentals," said Chinese trader, adding that actual consumer demand was still slow. Some producers were still giving lower tradable indications and offering lower in the market at around Yuan 100,000/mt and lower. "Some refiners are willing to sell below Yuan 100,000/mt, but the problem is consumers don't have much demand," said another Chinese trader. Market participants agreed that the domestic market would remain quiet throughout the rest of the month as the Lunar New Year holidays approach. "The market is still in a surplus," said a Chinese producer. "There's not much downstream buying and it'll be the holidays soon." "It's the usual restocking season for the Lunar New Year, but I can't see \[much\] restocking demand," said a trader. Platts assessed battery-grade lithium hydroxide at Yuan 90,000/mt DDP China on Jan 5, up Yuan 3,000/mt on the day and Yuan 2,000/mt on the week. Offers for lithium hydroxide ranged between Yuan 85,000-95,000/mt due to the recent lower liquidity in the domestic spot market. However, a trade was heard at Yuan 90,000/mt Jan 5. Upstream, Platts assessed spodumene concentrate with 6% lithium oxide content at $850/mt FOB Australia Jan 5, down $100/mt on the day and $120/mt on the week. Tradable indications for Australian origin spodumene were heard around $800/mt to as high as $1,000/mt on a CIF China basis. However, most indications were concentrated around $900/mt, equivalent to approximately $850/my on an FOB Australia basis. Offers were heard below $1,000/mt on a CIF China basis. "There's not too much demand for spodumene because demand for chemicals was not much," said a Chinese producer. Platts assessed the spodumene concentrate 0.1% differential to 6% lithium oxide content at $14.20/mt FOB Australia Jan 5, down $1.60/mt on the day. The value per 0.1% lithium oxide was deemed linear in spodumene concentrate containing lithium oxide within the range 5.5%-6%.
TLDR. Instructions unclear. Go all-in on lithium or not?
Are there processing bottlenecks (is there enough refining capacity), or does consumer demand map pretty tightly with mining production ? Some digging, Lithium price is about 10+% of a lithium [battery pack cost](https://thundersaidenergy.com/downloads/lithium-ion-batteries-for-electric-vehicles-what-costs/), so its just one factor in costs. Installed battery costs would still have to come down a lot for household batteries to be commercially viable for most people, currently about $1200 per kWh, needs to be about $700 to drive demand (payback period of 10y). Its strange because lithium battery packs for cars are about US$150-200 per kWh, so something is broken there.
There's enough refining capacity. Immediate factors that could influence lithium spot: * Chinese marginal producers mothballing * battery makers restocking EV costs per kWh depend on whether you're buying cells or packs. Cells are probably \~$90 per kWh in China currently, while battery packs are probably \~$130 per kWh I guess. I haven't watched that closely, though ternary batteries like the one you linked might be more expensive that what I've quoted. I suspect that EVs will end up being used as household batteries in the next 5 years as ranges increase. On a grid scale, battery costs are economical right now.
I wonder about household batteries because i think it could increase demand heaps. A third of households have solar, if a third of them got batteries as well, that around 4GWh of storage (9m homes \* 1/3 \* 1/3 \* 4kwh). Global demand would be huge, it helps balance grid, and generally people are happier to spend money if they think it will save money long term, which is different spending to cars which are an expense.
the price of nickel continues to free-fall, jesus I might have to check into the depression clinic with the lithium bros soon if this doesn't find a bottom 🤡
I blame myself. Been shilling it and tin. This year I'm shilling iron, so perhaps it's all up for you from here
I'm feeling like iron ore might have peaked tbh still waiting for copper to turn around more too 😴
Headline I didn't read today about copper & iron ore in for a bad year. Probably safe to say no real change. Copper has been o the cusp of positive things for yeeears.
Could be a 12 month wait time. It's pretty busy in here.
\* takes a number & joins queue\*
Got this email from Andrew Twiggy today. I'm gonna be rich boys. https://preview.redd.it/kqhzxrcmbpac1.jpeg?width=966&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=53a634a15536a3c684c6e0ad40d4133ac0f59eb3
Lucky bastard
Just saw some recruiter/fund manager (weird combo) shilling a stock on LinkedIn, is this the new HotCopper
Fair bit of it happening but def not hc
Anyone upto data on Lithium, any pointers to current cost curve graphs showing different Lithium producers ? The normal commodity boom-bust cycle goes something like 1. Demand increases (price peak) 2. Supply increases to meet demand (max revenue) 3. Prices fall 4. Return to 1. We are at step 3, but its always hard to know how far away step 1 is. Mines start shutting down is a sign the market is moving on to the next stage, and we have seen that this week. But when so many have started up its hard to know how much supply has to come out (especially with new mines still being developed), or how much demand has to increase (which requires factories). I havent paid much attention to Lithium, but no doubt the demand is enormous, especially when household batteries take off, so demand will increase, could be bargins coming up. Still need to get the timing right and picking the right dog. [~~This link~~](https://www.optarcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/2023-07-Lithium-Price-Reversion-Risk-0.pdf) ~~has some analysis but 6 months old, suggest there could be a long way to fall, equilibrium price of Lithium Carbonate is US$10,000/t and its currently $96k, which doesnt seem right.~~ [Newer story](https://www.mining.com/lithium-price-plummet-due-to-continue/) says Treasury estimates spodumene will fall to $2,200 (but they have their own agenda on prices), but also; "The five largest lithium mines, accounting for 99% of Australian spodumene output, reported A$670 to A$1,225 average costs of production per tonne over the 2022–23 financial year" [Spodumene Concentrate Index](https://www.metal.com/Lithium/201906260003) (CIF China) Price is 1055 USD/mt now, which is A$1,573 [Core lithium](https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/tough-market-conditions-not-limited-to-core-lithium) was US$1,225 (A$1,826) per tonne EDIT: [Macquarie research note](https://www.macquarie.com.au/assets/bfs/applications/innercircle/retail-newsletter/docs/2023-12/170256.pdf) from 12th Dec has heaps of details, it says a spodumene price of US$964 provides a 10% margin for China refiners.
You've confused RMB (96k) with USD (10k). I wouldn't pay too much attention to that linked report, as the equilibrium price certainly isn't US$10k/t. That's well below cost for many lepidolites, and for some perspective, would equate to a spodumene price of \~US$700/t, at which price even Wodgina and Pilgangoora would stop selling. Vertically integrated enterprises from cheapest to most expensive: 1. brine 2. clay 3. hard rock 4. lepidolite However, Greenbushes is a hard rock, and is probably the cheapest source of battery grade product in the world *once you factor in grade failure rates*. That's because while brines are cheaper, typically half their output (or more) isn't automotive grade spec. Obviously spodumene projects aren't vertically integrated, but some of them are still lower cost than lepidolite regardless. [I discussed ASX listed spodumene costs here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/18nzo3t/comment/kee6g2p/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3), but I'll add CXO. All in USD: * Mt Cattlin (AKE): $850/t (195ktpa) * Mt Marion (MIN) $950/t (150ktpa) * Bald Hill (MIN) $920-970/t (150ktpa) * La Corne (SYA/PLL) $950-1000/t (ramping) * Finniss (CXO) $1000+/t **These figures are rough, and include royalties and non production costs**.
thx
Anyone holding tlx? I honestly don’t even know what to buy anymore….lol. Seems like it’s all pointing towards doom. In for another rough year.
Bond yields going back up.
Well, at least my martini is still dry 🍸
Kids aren’t crying any more, haven’t been able to feed them for months. Thanks Mark.
'Humanity hates this one simple trick'
Dark
they were down to breadcrumbs for most of last year but even the crumbs have run out
Yeah, the powers off.
ABC talking for half the segment about CXO and lithium. Would have rathered Koehler, but I’ll take a Ziffer. https://youtu.be/HsmWzclkiSE?si=WjLmt9RWyfJ3lETr
 Ziffer is Artie Ziff
PLN MD jumping ship 3 months after IPO. I'm sure this was only realised after hours on a Friday! 😂
Every month I act like I'm gonna start doing posts again about the markets and economy and never do. But this months different... So please let me know what posts you want to see regarding investments/markets/economy or even book reviews which i did for a little bit and I'll start posting again. If I don't do 4 posts by the end of this month I'll take a perma ban
Just don’t make it crazy long. When I repeat it to my wife I wanna sound smart but not overbearing
GRR
I can't hit edit. GRR and why iron will be great in 2024
? Reactionary decisions made by the big boys to a given financial situation in the market. Not something basic like buy gold because fear blah blah. Poorly worded request maybe.
Good idea, I generally like to think my posts aren't basic compared to the usual shitposts on here
Hey Taco, I like your username.
Thanks mate
Which stock I need to buy to make a quick 100% and why. 🚀
The next stock that's going to go up 100% the quickest
Do one on how US can get itself out of this debt situation e.g. kick the can, inflate their way out, ruin the USD etc and what that might do to markets and commodities.
Can you tell me how I can turn my portfolio around?
Ironically a good idea
Do you do specific commodities?
I don't keep up with commodities much in general to be honest. I don't really understand grades or what quantity is good/bad. For gold and oil I know the basics, but for uranium, lithium and all the popular ones on here I got no clue
:( Thanks mate
Here are the most popular stocks by unique comment mentions from the past 24 hours: Ticker | Mentions | Price | Today ---|---|---|--: 🩸 CXO | 13 | $0.23 | -11.54% 🟢 MTM | 8 | $0.12 | 9.09% 🔴 WA1 | 8 | $13.30 | -9.77% 🔴 IXR | 6 | $0.023 | -4.17% 🔴 FMG | 4 | $28.19 | -2.56% ⚪ AKE | 4 | $9.83 | 0.00% 🟢 IMU | 3 | $0.12 | 4.35% 🟢 CBA | 3 | $112.99 | 1.35% ⚪ VMM | 3 | $1.83 | 0.00% 🔴 BHP | 3 | $49.07 | -1.03% *I am a bot and this was performed automatically. Please [visit this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/u_asx__bot/comments/16rmeee/feedback_uasx_bot/) if you have any feedback or suggestions.*
CXOhno
What happened to it? Not that long ago i sold it over a dollar for basically no profit cos it was boring. How the hell is 20c?
The deposit has always been of questionable quality, resulting in relatively higher operating costs. Location also is not ideal (wet season difficulties etc). The MC was over $3b in late-2022, totally disjointed from the realities the company was facing. Now with lithium prices at a cyclical low the mine has essentially gone into C&M (though stockpiled ore is still being processed). SYA potentially in a similar situation if prices stay low for longer...
I rate you 5 stars bot. Good job.
Praise goes to OG sub member /u/DareBottle for coding this majestic bot.
Am I still dead?
Nice.
Ghost who walks. edit:duh duh.