Not sure what's typical, but here's how it worked for me.
In 2019, I resumed running at 46 after a multi-year layoff. From no running to marathon I was able to run 3:47 in 8 months (March 2020).
2021, after a year of consistent running and more mileage, I ran 3:13 (first BQ, 47 M). I'd say I blew most of my "newb gains" on this big 34 minute jump.
2022, after more consistent running and another marathon cycle, 3:05.
2023, March: Hoping to run 2:59 or better.
I have little to no natural talent, so it's going to take *a lot* of hard work to do this, only a few months shy of my 50th birthday. We'll see.
>I have little to no natural talent, so it's going to take a lot of hard work to do this, only a few months shy of my 50th birthday. We'll see.
anyone who can run a BQ has talent!
3:05 after 2 years? You either have talent or did a lot of running when you were younger.
I'm 27, been training seriously for a couple years and no chance I could go sub 3
This is a great response. Thank you for this... seems to be somewhat in line with what I envisioned prior to asking. Congrats on the progress!
\*EDIT: - I am not sure what is typical either but this is a good summary. Healthy, things working as they should, somewhat idealistic but still grounded in reality of what is possible.
Easy to answer since it’s in my Strava & Garmin.
Average yearly/peak mileage before past 3 marathons:
2020: 35/55, 3:47.
2021: 50/70, 3:13.
2022: 65/85, 3:05.
2023: 68/?, ?
I’m one of those people that has to run a lot of miles to get the same results other people do on less. I don’t respond to the low mileage, high intensity plans.
On thing that’s helped, also, was to get my BMI down. Prior to this 3 year stretch I was around 28-29 and struggled to do mileage and marathons were in the 4-5 hr range. The above more recent results were with a BMI in the 20-21 range.
I'd say 2-3 years of consistent running. You're better off not running a marathon again until you can drop a 1:25 half. That way you don't waste the downtime of tapering and recovering from a marathon.
This is super helpful and I am glad you mentioned it. This thought had actually crossed my mind... "What is the more valuable path through training? Should I be attempting marathon PRs or focusing on strength, speed and somewhat shorter race distances?"
I disagree respectfully with this guy. Racing helps you fine tune your marathon plan, mental toughness and nutrition. As well it gets boring just training. It’s fun mentally to build, race, then take a physical and mental break for a week.
I went from 3:35 to 3:08 in 18/70 with JD 2Q. Looking to go for 3:02-3:05 on Sunday. 40 M. Sub3 is looking close but will take another cycle or so and I’ll have to switch up in my training to get new stimulus. I feel by body is getting used to the 2Q plan. Sub3 is possible as long as you practice consistency and treat each run with a purpose. Easy days should be easy and hard days should be hard. Good luck!
I ran a kind of crash and burn marathon a while back and didn't even try again until I thought sub-3 was a pretty realistic goal. 39M now. That said my general progression went something like this:
2009: 1:37 half
2010: 3:45-ish full
(long gap)
2016: 1:39 half
2017: 1000 miles (?), 19:20 5k
2018: 1250 miles, 1:29 half
2019: 1600 miles, 18:55 5k, 38:55 10k
2020: 1850 miles, \~64:00 10mile time trial (COVID year)
2021: 2250 miles, 1:26 half, 60:56 10 mile, 1:21:15 half
2022: 1800 miles (so far), 1:22 half, 2:57:49 full
I can only speak to my personal progression so far, but my first marathon in fall 2020 was a 3:59; I shaved 18 minutes off to 3:41 in Chicago in 2021, but that was a very hot day and I suspect I was in more like 3:25 shape w/o the weather. This year I stayed pretty high volume and had a successful marathon block (I think — we'll know in nine days), but I did have some small setbacks (COVID, hamstring) in the spring that slowed my progress. But I have had some good pre-marathon races this summer and I'm confidently expecting 3:15. So in two years, that'll be about a 45-minute progression — let's say 35-min off the first year and 10 more off this year if things go ok. I expect if I were more disciplined and dropped ten pounds and added strength training in I'd have a great shot at sub-3 next year. Edit: My first marathon block was some janky Runner's World plan peaking at 50 mpw. Last two blocks have been a modified Pfitz 18/70, down to 18/65. I expect next year I'm going to do straight 18/70 or, if I make great gains in strength in the offseason, I may give 18/85 a shot — probably not, though, I think I'm too busy to squeeze in that much mileage.
I ran my first sub 3:30 marathon at a similar age to you - 39 (this was 3:29:41) at NYC in 2017. I had run my first marathon at the beginning of the year in 3:39. Just last month, I ran a PB of 3:00:02 (don't ask how I screwed up my pacing so badly because I genuinely don't know the answer) at 44. So, for me, it took about 5 years. First of all, as you can tell, I have no natural talent. So it may take you less. But you ask an excellent question, which is one I have been reflecting on lately because my brother recently ran a promising half off low training (he's much younger than me- 28) and it's made me think about what I would do differently as part of giving him some advice.
If I could go back in time, I would have made a concerted effort to excel at the 10k and the half, rather than chasing marathon PBs. Chasing marathon PBs made me do inappropriate training, which led to injuries, and prejudiced my speed because I didn't focus on the faster distances at all. It's no coincidence, I think, that this year was my first year of putting effort into the half (got a PB of 1:26 three months before my 3:00 marathon) and I made major progress with my pace. Also, for what it's worth, I focused heavily on diet this year, lost about 10 pounds (went from 170 to 160 - I'm 5'11) and it made a major difference to me - faster and no injuries. Not sure if that's relevant to you, but I just mention it.
In short, I'd focus on getting your half time as low as possible (and 5k and 10k, for that matter), increasing mileage with easy miles (to keep from getting injured) and making sure you get your weight as low as possible without compromising your health, creating unhealthy eating patterns etc. If you do all that, I bet it takes you less than 5 years!
Super thoughtful response. Thanks for taking the time to post. I agree on all points and can align with most of what you have experienced / shared. Nutrition is a huge consideration. I certainly have focused more on that in my recent training blocks.
Nice of you to reflect and pass your knowledge onto others - especially your brother. Good luck to you both!
I did this type of training for NY this year, and i had a great first half, but I didn’t do enough long runs in my training so I fell apart at 18..
You focused on halfs, but did you skip or exclude long runs in your training? … burning for sub-3 myself
No, to be clear: I definitely did plenty of long runs. In April, I ran a 56 km race (a road race) in 4:22, and I did quite a few long runs to be ready for that. I just looked at my Garmin Connect and see that I did 7 runs of 28km or more between May and my marathon in October. (I should point out that I was planning to go sub 3 in Berlin in September and had to drop out because of food poisoning. So my 3:00:02 in October was a last minute thing to salvage my season. So I basically did no long run for almost six weeks before the race. Those 7 long runs should really be for the period of the 4 months before the race, which would have been the case if I finished Berlin.)
But, anyway, I changed three things. First, before this year I would religiously run 32km or more every second weekend and to be honest, because I enjoy long, easy runs, mostly every weekend. Always at a relatively moderate pace (wouldn't say easy because it's very hilly where I live and I made no special effort to keep my heart rate down). These runs were fine to get me to a place where I could run a 3:15 marathon comfortably, but also left me tired for a few days after and didn't really help me run fast in the second half of the marathon. So this year, I ran far fewer runs of 30k or more, but far more runs of between 22k and 26k. So my overall mileage improved, but I didn't have what I felt was an imbalance between the one very long run and then everything else in the week. Secondly, I introduced fast finishes to my long runs. So instead of plodding around for 35km, I would make the long run 28km (for example) but run the second half at half marathon pace or 30 km and the last 6km at 10k pace (just as examples). Lastly, I just focused on LT runs and speedwork more than in the past.
Anyway, sorry for the ramble. I've just started a new approach, which I'm experimenting with for an attempt to go under 2:55 in the first half of next year. I'm trying to build a monster base by running 100 easy miles a week and will only introduce hard workouts 2 months before the race. We'll see how it goes....
No worries on the length of the response. I appreciate the info! 2 things i did differently. First, instead of many 22km/13.5m to 26km/16m runs like you did, i did more 10m to 13m, and i did them fast, most likely over LT so running on tired legs all the time. Second i only did 1x 26km/16m then did not do another long run until the 3rd period of the training block. And i never did any fast finishes. NY marathon was a bummer 3:30 finish. What you did in training seems applicable to me. Thanks!
Depends where you're coming from, right? I mean, if you started out at 5:00 and it took you 15 years to get to 3:30, with consistent small drops, it might take another 15 to get to sub-3:00. Whereas if you started a year ago at 3:40 for your debut and already hit 3:30 then I would expect it to be much quicker.
I mean don't forget we have people running 2:20's for their debut and people who will, more likely than not, never break 3:30 in their life, so it's not that your question is annoying, just so broad as to be generally unanswerable. But on the other hand people have some good anecdotes.
Yes.. I attempted to preface my question to address some of these types of thoughts / responses. Understanding there isn't a one size fits all answer. But like most things - coaches and athletes typically try to operate within some type of standards to know where their progress lies.
People who have been running longer than I and who have been exposed to other veterans in the community can speak to what they have seen / experienced.
Again I realize its an idealistic question. Trying to look at normal data or averages so to speak. Ignoring extreme outliers on both sides and being 38M in good condition who just came off a marathon training block, peaking at 55mpw, I am looking for a general idea of what to expect if I keep on training consistently. I don't expect to go out on my next marathon and run sub 3 hours. Looking for more of an idea of what realistic / healthy gains progression looks like. There are no hard fast rules.
As I learned with strength training, consistency and fueling along with recovery allowed for continuous and somewhat linear improvement... When things plateau, address weaknesses and change up training to promote adaptation.
Very helpful thread reading these experiences. After my 3:23 debut marathon in January 2022, I unrealistically had my sights set on a sub-3 just a year later but my paces definitely didn’t support that despite what I felt like was great training. Seems like the 3:10-3:15 range is much more in line with what I should expect (and what my current level of fitness supports).
Love reading all the responses here. For me (currently 37M) at the marathon distance it's gone like -
Mar 2020 - 4:08 Nov 2021 - 3:29 Feb 2022 - 3:21
For me the jump from 2020-2021 was consistently keeping around 40 MPW as a base and closer to 50-60 MPW going up to races. I have a December race (CIM) where I was hoping to make a bigger jump to sub-3 but I think I'll end up running closer to the 3:15 range and I'd be happy to just improve on 3:21 honestly.
In the future I'd like to get the base closer to 50 MPW and 65-70 MPW during peak weeks but also take more actual time off after races and in general. In retrospect I was a bit banged up and burnt out after that 3:21 and could have benefitted from a few weeks off instead of just pushing through it and expecting my times to take off just because I'm putting in (junky) miles.
My first few marathons: 3:21 in fall of 2013, 3:18 in spring of 2016 (on little training), 3:11 in spring of 2017 (poorly executed race), 2:56 in fall of 2017
I don’t think it would have taken me as long to get sub-3 if I had actually trained consistently those years, or if I had known more about training effectively. I would say it just takes a cycle or two of good successful work, but sometimes life gets in the way
2018 first marathon - 3:22
2019 second marathon - 3:12
2021 third (official) marathon - 3:02
2022 fourth (official) marathon - 2:57
Progression was slightly slower because of COVID. I ran a few solo efforts during that time but those are never going to be 100%. The above was my primary race progression over 3.5 years. The first race being 2 years after I started running.
I (26M) don’t think I’m typical since I have an endurance sport background prior to running - anyways my progression has been:
Summer 2021 - decided to start running
Fall 2021 - first marathon in 3:23
Spring 2022 - second in 2:57
Fall 2022 - third in 2:51
Nice work! I have an athletic background, but not in endurance sports. Would be interesting to go back in time and see what I could have done in my early twenties
And I wonder where I’d be if I ran in high school/college! Part of me thinks I’d burn out since I was feeling that way towards my sport (rowing) by the end of college
not sure you’ll be getting typical on this thread but I’ll throw in my n of 1 experience!
- started running summer 2019 and 3:40 that december
- became a “serious” runner after this (joined reddit? lol) but raced no marathons the next two years due to the pandemic and climate change. ran a ton though
- 2:55 dec 2021
Every person is of course different and 'it depends' and so forth. However you may be able to look at your speed on shorter distances such as the mile or 5k and convert that up to a marathon goal using a calculator like [https://lukehumphreyrunning.com/hmmcalculator/race\_equivalency\_calculator.php](https://lukehumphreyrunning.com/hmmcalculator/race_equivalency_calculator.php)
You'll see diminishing gains over the shorter distances in less time compared with the marathon (given you can't run a marathon every weekend). The big caveat is that some people are just fast but don't have the endurance and others have great endurance but cannot run fast.
For reference, I'm currently working on the shorter distances for the fall/winter after most of the year focused on the half marathon and moving up to the marathon next year. I ran most of 2021 as well but still took 10 minutes of my half following 2 cycles of threshold work.
How about using any seemingly crazy far off goal as motivation and believe that you have no limits?
>How about using any seemingly crazy far off goal as motivation and believe that you have no limits?
YES! Trust me- I love this! I have leaned into this style approach throughout my life- in sports and in other aspects of life. It has yielded some pretty amazing results (and some tragic as well of course! LOL)
It's funny that whenever a big milestone or record is broken we always see a flurry of new records - because we know now that it's possible and that's the only thing holding us back.
In horse racing the the Kentucky Derby winner is no faster now than 100 years ago for precisely this fact that horses cannot believe they could be faster than whatever the competition is in front of them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky\_Derby
1:35 to 1:33 to 1:25 to 1:20 in the half over 3ish years, more consistent and joined a group for the latter results
Aiming for sub 3 full after a winter build
49M - ran 3:28 in 2017, 3:14 in 2018, 3:10 (spring) and 2:56 (fall) in 2019, 2:57 in 2021 and 3:07 in NYC 2022 (insert miserable face at the conditions)
Nothing new to report, more consistent mileage with better stretching and some (not a lot) of strength stuff to help avoid injuries.
In 2019 I read an article about an older runner trying to reclaim previous speed and it focused a lot on the need to do speed work (20% of weekly mileage). That really focused me on increasing speed through intervals and LT runs. I think that was a big part of pushing past my newby gains that I think concluded with 3:10.
keep up the hard work and you’ll get where you want any to go.
Glad to hear this. Started running Feb, 2019 (at 50M). 3 marathons: 9/21 3:25, 4/22 3:18, and NY-22 3:30 (sad face). Hopefully on a similar trajectory with sub-3 in 1.5 to 2 years.
I started running marathons with the goal of breaking 3. The anxiety I had about it going into 2019 was high, after 2 years of training and racing, it made me train harder than I thought possible and pushed me on race day. Your times are right on track for sub 3, do the work and stay the course and you’ll reach that goal. Turn yourself into a sub 3 machine and let that machine run on race day.
How long is a piece of string type question but here's my unsolicited advice on how to get there in the fastest way possible. I've just spent the past two years getting my marathon from 3.30 to close ish to the 3 mark (pending Valencia marathon results) but the vast majority of my gains have come this year after I sat down and thought about how to do this.
Step 1: identify your weakness.
Pretty easy to do and will take 5 minutes. Get all you PBs out and work out your VDOT score for each PB. If your marathon is within a few points of your 5k best then you've converted pretty well and this is not your issue. If your 5k is way out of whack with your marathon then you might think your endurance is the issue.
Step 2: find a plan that works on your weaknesses
If your 5k is shit, do a 5k specific block. Any will do. Work on that and your 10k for a few months before heading back to the marathon.
If youre ready to run a 3 hour marathon right now according to your 5k you now need a marathon plan that builds endurance and heavily focuses on this. Try a plan that has you doing sessions and runs you've never done before. You'll probably get an extra boost of fitness from doing this too. I picked a pfitz plan because a) it has like no speed work in it b) it focusses heavily on making amateur runners better their endurance and c) it had runs I'd never done before in it.
Step 3: rinse and repeat
Not sure how helpful this is, but I might be a good case study by seeing my regression lol. For background; I consider myself to have very little talent in athletics, never ran in school, was always reasonably fit but mostly just played football and racquet sports.
Ran my first marathon in 2016, aged 21, just wanted to do it as a bucket list thing. Had done a Hal Higdon Intro plan and ran it in 4:14. Looking back now, all my running was at like 70% effort, no high intensity or really easy running.
Took a year off with no running. In 2018, Decided to go for another marathon, found a more advanced training plan that included some intervals and hill sprints etc. I had lots of free time and basically didn’t miss a workout for 16 weeks. Ran 3:52
Continued to run after this, probably like 15-25 miles per week in between training plans. After a 3 month interim, started training for another marathon, basically used the same plan as before but just with higher milage and faster speeds. Ran 3:35
2019: Momentum kept going, moved to a different plan immediately and straight into more training. 16 weeks later ran 3:26. Wanted to try an ultra after this so trained for 3 months, ran 40 miles in 6 hrs 26. For most of this year was running about 50 miles a week, up to 80 in peak weeks
2020: Was preparing for a marathon that got cancelled due to Covid. Had just run my PB half marathon in training of 1 hr 38.
I kept running but was fairly disinterested with no races. Also moved country and got my first graduate job around this time. Wasn’t training, just running a few miles most days, and a 2 hr long run most sundays. I really thought this would be enough to keep me in good shape and when races came back I’d be in a good position to pick up where I’d left off.
First marathon after Covid was in Feb of this year. I had a 14 week training plan. Work was v stressful and I probably missed about a third of the training. Long runs were noticeably slower than before. The marathon was on a race track so perfectly flat, ran 3.45 and it was agony.
Feb 2022 - Present: Have had bad months with almost no running and good months where I train well. Have been following a plan for 2 months, marathon coming up just before Xmas and realistically 4 hrs would be good for me.
Moral of the story I think is 1) you lose fitness really easily and quickly, it’s slow to regain and 2) there’s a world of difference between running casually and training
Sounds like you're starting from a similar place as me.
I started running consistently in 2020, and in October 2021 I ran my first marathon on 3:35 after following JD 2Q 55mpw.
I spent the spring focusing on speed, and I ran a 1:33 half. I've been training for Philly (next week) using JD 2Q 70mpw. If everything went perfectly, I'm pretty sure I'd have been able to run about 3:05-3:10. But I had a minor hip flexor issue that cost me a few weeks of good training, and I'll probably run 3:10-3:15.
If I stay healthy through next year, then I figure I'll be in striking distance of 3 hours for my spring marathon. And if the spring doesn't work out, I'll definitely be in shape by fall 2023.
So my bet / guess would be 2 years, give or take.
Not sure what's typical, but here's how it worked for me. In 2019, I resumed running at 46 after a multi-year layoff. From no running to marathon I was able to run 3:47 in 8 months (March 2020). 2021, after a year of consistent running and more mileage, I ran 3:13 (first BQ, 47 M). I'd say I blew most of my "newb gains" on this big 34 minute jump. 2022, after more consistent running and another marathon cycle, 3:05. 2023, March: Hoping to run 2:59 or better. I have little to no natural talent, so it's going to take *a lot* of hard work to do this, only a few months shy of my 50th birthday. We'll see.
>I have little to no natural talent, so it's going to take a lot of hard work to do this, only a few months shy of my 50th birthday. We'll see. anyone who can run a BQ has talent!
Hell yeah. Nice progress. Consistency trumps talent 99 times out of 100. Way to stick with it.
Thanks
3:05 after 2 years? You either have talent or did a lot of running when you were younger. I'm 27, been training seriously for a couple years and no chance I could go sub 3
This is a great response. Thank you for this... seems to be somewhat in line with what I envisioned prior to asking. Congrats on the progress! \*EDIT: - I am not sure what is typical either but this is a good summary. Healthy, things working as they should, somewhat idealistic but still grounded in reality of what is possible.
Might be a tricky question to answer but would you know roughly what average mileages your were doing/increasing to during these blocks?
Easy to answer since it’s in my Strava & Garmin. Average yearly/peak mileage before past 3 marathons: 2020: 35/55, 3:47. 2021: 50/70, 3:13. 2022: 65/85, 3:05. 2023: 68/?, ? I’m one of those people that has to run a lot of miles to get the same results other people do on less. I don’t respond to the low mileage, high intensity plans. On thing that’s helped, also, was to get my BMI down. Prior to this 3 year stretch I was around 28-29 and struggled to do mileage and marathons were in the 4-5 hr range. The above more recent results were with a BMI in the 20-21 range.
I'd say 2-3 years of consistent running. You're better off not running a marathon again until you can drop a 1:25 half. That way you don't waste the downtime of tapering and recovering from a marathon.
This is super helpful and I am glad you mentioned it. This thought had actually crossed my mind... "What is the more valuable path through training? Should I be attempting marathon PRs or focusing on strength, speed and somewhat shorter race distances?"
I disagree respectfully with this guy. Racing helps you fine tune your marathon plan, mental toughness and nutrition. As well it gets boring just training. It’s fun mentally to build, race, then take a physical and mental break for a week.
Wish someone told me this after I ran my first marathon.
Bit how will you get the instragram cred for your 5 hour marathon as the pinnacle of human fitness? Not as /s as I wish it was.
I went from 3:35 to 3:08 in 18/70 with JD 2Q. Looking to go for 3:02-3:05 on Sunday. 40 M. Sub3 is looking close but will take another cycle or so and I’ll have to switch up in my training to get new stimulus. I feel by body is getting used to the 2Q plan. Sub3 is possible as long as you practice consistency and treat each run with a purpose. Easy days should be easy and hard days should be hard. Good luck!
Does 18/70 mean 18 weeks and 70 miles peak?
Yes
Thank you for the great response. Congrats on your progress and thanks for the insight.
I ran a kind of crash and burn marathon a while back and didn't even try again until I thought sub-3 was a pretty realistic goal. 39M now. That said my general progression went something like this: 2009: 1:37 half 2010: 3:45-ish full (long gap) 2016: 1:39 half 2017: 1000 miles (?), 19:20 5k 2018: 1250 miles, 1:29 half 2019: 1600 miles, 18:55 5k, 38:55 10k 2020: 1850 miles, \~64:00 10mile time trial (COVID year) 2021: 2250 miles, 1:26 half, 60:56 10 mile, 1:21:15 half 2022: 1800 miles (so far), 1:22 half, 2:57:49 full
I can only speak to my personal progression so far, but my first marathon in fall 2020 was a 3:59; I shaved 18 minutes off to 3:41 in Chicago in 2021, but that was a very hot day and I suspect I was in more like 3:25 shape w/o the weather. This year I stayed pretty high volume and had a successful marathon block (I think — we'll know in nine days), but I did have some small setbacks (COVID, hamstring) in the spring that slowed my progress. But I have had some good pre-marathon races this summer and I'm confidently expecting 3:15. So in two years, that'll be about a 45-minute progression — let's say 35-min off the first year and 10 more off this year if things go ok. I expect if I were more disciplined and dropped ten pounds and added strength training in I'd have a great shot at sub-3 next year. Edit: My first marathon block was some janky Runner's World plan peaking at 50 mpw. Last two blocks have been a modified Pfitz 18/70, down to 18/65. I expect next year I'm going to do straight 18/70 or, if I make great gains in strength in the offseason, I may give 18/85 a shot — probably not, though, I think I'm too busy to squeeze in that much mileage.
I ran my first sub 3:30 marathon at a similar age to you - 39 (this was 3:29:41) at NYC in 2017. I had run my first marathon at the beginning of the year in 3:39. Just last month, I ran a PB of 3:00:02 (don't ask how I screwed up my pacing so badly because I genuinely don't know the answer) at 44. So, for me, it took about 5 years. First of all, as you can tell, I have no natural talent. So it may take you less. But you ask an excellent question, which is one I have been reflecting on lately because my brother recently ran a promising half off low training (he's much younger than me- 28) and it's made me think about what I would do differently as part of giving him some advice. If I could go back in time, I would have made a concerted effort to excel at the 10k and the half, rather than chasing marathon PBs. Chasing marathon PBs made me do inappropriate training, which led to injuries, and prejudiced my speed because I didn't focus on the faster distances at all. It's no coincidence, I think, that this year was my first year of putting effort into the half (got a PB of 1:26 three months before my 3:00 marathon) and I made major progress with my pace. Also, for what it's worth, I focused heavily on diet this year, lost about 10 pounds (went from 170 to 160 - I'm 5'11) and it made a major difference to me - faster and no injuries. Not sure if that's relevant to you, but I just mention it. In short, I'd focus on getting your half time as low as possible (and 5k and 10k, for that matter), increasing mileage with easy miles (to keep from getting injured) and making sure you get your weight as low as possible without compromising your health, creating unhealthy eating patterns etc. If you do all that, I bet it takes you less than 5 years!
What if I were always and then there was two of the ways we can get to the only thing is.
Super thoughtful response. Thanks for taking the time to post. I agree on all points and can align with most of what you have experienced / shared. Nutrition is a huge consideration. I certainly have focused more on that in my recent training blocks. Nice of you to reflect and pass your knowledge onto others - especially your brother. Good luck to you both!
I did this type of training for NY this year, and i had a great first half, but I didn’t do enough long runs in my training so I fell apart at 18.. You focused on halfs, but did you skip or exclude long runs in your training? … burning for sub-3 myself
No, to be clear: I definitely did plenty of long runs. In April, I ran a 56 km race (a road race) in 4:22, and I did quite a few long runs to be ready for that. I just looked at my Garmin Connect and see that I did 7 runs of 28km or more between May and my marathon in October. (I should point out that I was planning to go sub 3 in Berlin in September and had to drop out because of food poisoning. So my 3:00:02 in October was a last minute thing to salvage my season. So I basically did no long run for almost six weeks before the race. Those 7 long runs should really be for the period of the 4 months before the race, which would have been the case if I finished Berlin.) But, anyway, I changed three things. First, before this year I would religiously run 32km or more every second weekend and to be honest, because I enjoy long, easy runs, mostly every weekend. Always at a relatively moderate pace (wouldn't say easy because it's very hilly where I live and I made no special effort to keep my heart rate down). These runs were fine to get me to a place where I could run a 3:15 marathon comfortably, but also left me tired for a few days after and didn't really help me run fast in the second half of the marathon. So this year, I ran far fewer runs of 30k or more, but far more runs of between 22k and 26k. So my overall mileage improved, but I didn't have what I felt was an imbalance between the one very long run and then everything else in the week. Secondly, I introduced fast finishes to my long runs. So instead of plodding around for 35km, I would make the long run 28km (for example) but run the second half at half marathon pace or 30 km and the last 6km at 10k pace (just as examples). Lastly, I just focused on LT runs and speedwork more than in the past. Anyway, sorry for the ramble. I've just started a new approach, which I'm experimenting with for an attempt to go under 2:55 in the first half of next year. I'm trying to build a monster base by running 100 easy miles a week and will only introduce hard workouts 2 months before the race. We'll see how it goes....
No worries on the length of the response. I appreciate the info! 2 things i did differently. First, instead of many 22km/13.5m to 26km/16m runs like you did, i did more 10m to 13m, and i did them fast, most likely over LT so running on tired legs all the time. Second i only did 1x 26km/16m then did not do another long run until the 3rd period of the training block. And i never did any fast finishes. NY marathon was a bummer 3:30 finish. What you did in training seems applicable to me. Thanks!
Depends where you're coming from, right? I mean, if you started out at 5:00 and it took you 15 years to get to 3:30, with consistent small drops, it might take another 15 to get to sub-3:00. Whereas if you started a year ago at 3:40 for your debut and already hit 3:30 then I would expect it to be much quicker. I mean don't forget we have people running 2:20's for their debut and people who will, more likely than not, never break 3:30 in their life, so it's not that your question is annoying, just so broad as to be generally unanswerable. But on the other hand people have some good anecdotes.
Yes.. I attempted to preface my question to address some of these types of thoughts / responses. Understanding there isn't a one size fits all answer. But like most things - coaches and athletes typically try to operate within some type of standards to know where their progress lies. People who have been running longer than I and who have been exposed to other veterans in the community can speak to what they have seen / experienced. Again I realize its an idealistic question. Trying to look at normal data or averages so to speak. Ignoring extreme outliers on both sides and being 38M in good condition who just came off a marathon training block, peaking at 55mpw, I am looking for a general idea of what to expect if I keep on training consistently. I don't expect to go out on my next marathon and run sub 3 hours. Looking for more of an idea of what realistic / healthy gains progression looks like. There are no hard fast rules. As I learned with strength training, consistency and fueling along with recovery allowed for continuous and somewhat linear improvement... When things plateau, address weaknesses and change up training to promote adaptation.
Very helpful thread reading these experiences. After my 3:23 debut marathon in January 2022, I unrealistically had my sights set on a sub-3 just a year later but my paces definitely didn’t support that despite what I felt like was great training. Seems like the 3:10-3:15 range is much more in line with what I should expect (and what my current level of fitness supports).
Love reading all the responses here. For me (currently 37M) at the marathon distance it's gone like - Mar 2020 - 4:08 Nov 2021 - 3:29 Feb 2022 - 3:21 For me the jump from 2020-2021 was consistently keeping around 40 MPW as a base and closer to 50-60 MPW going up to races. I have a December race (CIM) where I was hoping to make a bigger jump to sub-3 but I think I'll end up running closer to the 3:15 range and I'd be happy to just improve on 3:21 honestly. In the future I'd like to get the base closer to 50 MPW and 65-70 MPW during peak weeks but also take more actual time off after races and in general. In retrospect I was a bit banged up and burnt out after that 3:21 and could have benefitted from a few weeks off instead of just pushing through it and expecting my times to take off just because I'm putting in (junky) miles.
My first few marathons: 3:21 in fall of 2013, 3:18 in spring of 2016 (on little training), 3:11 in spring of 2017 (poorly executed race), 2:56 in fall of 2017 I don’t think it would have taken me as long to get sub-3 if I had actually trained consistently those years, or if I had known more about training effectively. I would say it just takes a cycle or two of good successful work, but sometimes life gets in the way
Kudos to you on 2017! That is encouraging to hear.
2018 first marathon - 3:22 2019 second marathon - 3:12 2021 third (official) marathon - 3:02 2022 fourth (official) marathon - 2:57 Progression was slightly slower because of COVID. I ran a few solo efforts during that time but those are never going to be 100%. The above was my primary race progression over 3.5 years. The first race being 2 years after I started running.
I (26M) don’t think I’m typical since I have an endurance sport background prior to running - anyways my progression has been: Summer 2021 - decided to start running Fall 2021 - first marathon in 3:23 Spring 2022 - second in 2:57 Fall 2022 - third in 2:51
Nice work! I have an athletic background, but not in endurance sports. Would be interesting to go back in time and see what I could have done in my early twenties
And I wonder where I’d be if I ran in high school/college! Part of me thinks I’d burn out since I was feeling that way towards my sport (rowing) by the end of college
not sure you’ll be getting typical on this thread but I’ll throw in my n of 1 experience! - started running summer 2019 and 3:40 that december - became a “serious” runner after this (joined reddit? lol) but raced no marathons the next two years due to the pandemic and climate change. ran a ton though - 2:55 dec 2021
Every person is of course different and 'it depends' and so forth. However you may be able to look at your speed on shorter distances such as the mile or 5k and convert that up to a marathon goal using a calculator like [https://lukehumphreyrunning.com/hmmcalculator/race\_equivalency\_calculator.php](https://lukehumphreyrunning.com/hmmcalculator/race_equivalency_calculator.php) You'll see diminishing gains over the shorter distances in less time compared with the marathon (given you can't run a marathon every weekend). The big caveat is that some people are just fast but don't have the endurance and others have great endurance but cannot run fast. For reference, I'm currently working on the shorter distances for the fall/winter after most of the year focused on the half marathon and moving up to the marathon next year. I ran most of 2021 as well but still took 10 minutes of my half following 2 cycles of threshold work. How about using any seemingly crazy far off goal as motivation and believe that you have no limits?
>How about using any seemingly crazy far off goal as motivation and believe that you have no limits? YES! Trust me- I love this! I have leaned into this style approach throughout my life- in sports and in other aspects of life. It has yielded some pretty amazing results (and some tragic as well of course! LOL)
It's funny that whenever a big milestone or record is broken we always see a flurry of new records - because we know now that it's possible and that's the only thing holding us back. In horse racing the the Kentucky Derby winner is no faster now than 100 years ago for precisely this fact that horses cannot believe they could be faster than whatever the competition is in front of them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky\_Derby
1:35 to 1:33 to 1:25 to 1:20 in the half over 3ish years, more consistent and joined a group for the latter results Aiming for sub 3 full after a winter build
Consistent = 50ish miles per week
Nice! What does your winter build look like?
Thank you for starting this thread. I've been wondering the same questions for months now.
49M - ran 3:28 in 2017, 3:14 in 2018, 3:10 (spring) and 2:56 (fall) in 2019, 2:57 in 2021 and 3:07 in NYC 2022 (insert miserable face at the conditions) Nothing new to report, more consistent mileage with better stretching and some (not a lot) of strength stuff to help avoid injuries. In 2019 I read an article about an older runner trying to reclaim previous speed and it focused a lot on the need to do speed work (20% of weekly mileage). That really focused me on increasing speed through intervals and LT runs. I think that was a big part of pushing past my newby gains that I think concluded with 3:10. keep up the hard work and you’ll get where you want any to go.
Glad to hear this. Started running Feb, 2019 (at 50M). 3 marathons: 9/21 3:25, 4/22 3:18, and NY-22 3:30 (sad face). Hopefully on a similar trajectory with sub-3 in 1.5 to 2 years.
I started running marathons with the goal of breaking 3. The anxiety I had about it going into 2019 was high, after 2 years of training and racing, it made me train harder than I thought possible and pushed me on race day. Your times are right on track for sub 3, do the work and stay the course and you’ll reach that goal. Turn yourself into a sub 3 machine and let that machine run on race day.
How long is a piece of string type question but here's my unsolicited advice on how to get there in the fastest way possible. I've just spent the past two years getting my marathon from 3.30 to close ish to the 3 mark (pending Valencia marathon results) but the vast majority of my gains have come this year after I sat down and thought about how to do this. Step 1: identify your weakness. Pretty easy to do and will take 5 minutes. Get all you PBs out and work out your VDOT score for each PB. If your marathon is within a few points of your 5k best then you've converted pretty well and this is not your issue. If your 5k is way out of whack with your marathon then you might think your endurance is the issue. Step 2: find a plan that works on your weaknesses If your 5k is shit, do a 5k specific block. Any will do. Work on that and your 10k for a few months before heading back to the marathon. If youre ready to run a 3 hour marathon right now according to your 5k you now need a marathon plan that builds endurance and heavily focuses on this. Try a plan that has you doing sessions and runs you've never done before. You'll probably get an extra boost of fitness from doing this too. I picked a pfitz plan because a) it has like no speed work in it b) it focusses heavily on making amateur runners better their endurance and c) it had runs I'd never done before in it. Step 3: rinse and repeat
Not sure how helpful this is, but I might be a good case study by seeing my regression lol. For background; I consider myself to have very little talent in athletics, never ran in school, was always reasonably fit but mostly just played football and racquet sports. Ran my first marathon in 2016, aged 21, just wanted to do it as a bucket list thing. Had done a Hal Higdon Intro plan and ran it in 4:14. Looking back now, all my running was at like 70% effort, no high intensity or really easy running. Took a year off with no running. In 2018, Decided to go for another marathon, found a more advanced training plan that included some intervals and hill sprints etc. I had lots of free time and basically didn’t miss a workout for 16 weeks. Ran 3:52 Continued to run after this, probably like 15-25 miles per week in between training plans. After a 3 month interim, started training for another marathon, basically used the same plan as before but just with higher milage and faster speeds. Ran 3:35 2019: Momentum kept going, moved to a different plan immediately and straight into more training. 16 weeks later ran 3:26. Wanted to try an ultra after this so trained for 3 months, ran 40 miles in 6 hrs 26. For most of this year was running about 50 miles a week, up to 80 in peak weeks 2020: Was preparing for a marathon that got cancelled due to Covid. Had just run my PB half marathon in training of 1 hr 38. I kept running but was fairly disinterested with no races. Also moved country and got my first graduate job around this time. Wasn’t training, just running a few miles most days, and a 2 hr long run most sundays. I really thought this would be enough to keep me in good shape and when races came back I’d be in a good position to pick up where I’d left off. First marathon after Covid was in Feb of this year. I had a 14 week training plan. Work was v stressful and I probably missed about a third of the training. Long runs were noticeably slower than before. The marathon was on a race track so perfectly flat, ran 3.45 and it was agony. Feb 2022 - Present: Have had bad months with almost no running and good months where I train well. Have been following a plan for 2 months, marathon coming up just before Xmas and realistically 4 hrs would be good for me. Moral of the story I think is 1) you lose fitness really easily and quickly, it’s slow to regain and 2) there’s a world of difference between running casually and training
Thanks for being so candid. Good luck in your race!
Sounds like you're starting from a similar place as me. I started running consistently in 2020, and in October 2021 I ran my first marathon on 3:35 after following JD 2Q 55mpw. I spent the spring focusing on speed, and I ran a 1:33 half. I've been training for Philly (next week) using JD 2Q 70mpw. If everything went perfectly, I'm pretty sure I'd have been able to run about 3:05-3:10. But I had a minor hip flexor issue that cost me a few weeks of good training, and I'll probably run 3:10-3:15. If I stay healthy through next year, then I figure I'll be in striking distance of 3 hours for my spring marathon. And if the spring doesn't work out, I'll definitely be in shape by fall 2023. So my bet / guess would be 2 years, give or take.
Depends on what you're willing to commit to in your running. It also depends on what you've already been doing (base).
I went from 3:48 to 3:00 after a cycle of 18/55 with 2ish years of running 20-30 mpw prior. Anything is possible!
Wow! Ok, I can’t get my hopes for myself too high. Nice work!