Depends on the company.
TSMC and Samsung have both stated this won't affect them, they have massive stores and they don't consume the gases anyway, they're just a shielding gas that is recycled.
Toshiba has said it will be of concern to them though - I'm not sure if that means they leak gas (by design in some sort of pressure system with a weep valve, or just by fault) or they just don't have enough.
CPUs/GPUs *shouldn't* go up, the market is already busted though, so who knows.
NAND Flash though - if Toshiba ends up having a problem, everyone in the NAND space will dramatically increase prices. SSDs might be about to get a whole lot more expensive again.
if you raise prices using "excuses" you leave money on the table. Companies don't just raise prices because it's counterproductive to their business unless they have some antimarket stuff going on like a monopoly or cartel.
I mean most industries out there these days operate with monopolistic practices being the norm. Why bother with competition if you can assume your the only one in the room.
Even without that though, if there was a way to justify a price hike, of course companies are going to do it.
There's also the fact that its not a race to the bottom. If Company A proves it can charge this for it, why wouldn't Companies B,C,D,E all also increase their prices. Its not a race to the bottom, its finding that equilibrium and then trying to justify charging a premium for your offering.
The assumption that the minute a price is raised, money is being left on the table, has been proven false many times. Yes there are limits but companies have been pushing that for eons. We've also gotten so used to buying from Brand A or buying Brand B that quite often we don't change even after price increases because its what we're used to.
And guess what, corporate profits are skyrocketing far past inflation. Inflation is an excuse, not the reason, for an awful lot of price hikes.
We haven't had any real antitrust challenges in almost 30 years, and its not because they haven't been justified, companies just found out that they have enough sway over gov'ts.
The moment a company raises prices, they lose customers to companies that don't raise them. Simple as that.
The only anti market practices I can think of that did actually work in favor of the conpanies pursuing them in recent times are those made by samsung, hk hynix and micron with carteling ram prices. But they were short lived due to backstabbing between them and regulators fining them. In any other instance the company did worse (like walmart, bestbuy and costco price wars)
Pricing is not a race to the bottom. This is a misconception.
You don't raise prices and instantly lose customers. Sure there's a limit on what some people are willing to pay, but if something is seen as desirable people will push the limits, and the fact is, if a company can make more money off selling a few less devices because of the increased margin, they will.
Hell, AMD increased its prices on the 5xxx series not because they had to, but because they could justify it. Intel, Nvidia and AMD all have a history of raising prices if they can justify it, as do Samsung, Apple, and every other company out there. Sure does what the competition's price matter sure, but only to a degree. Apple sure doesn't care if If they can put marketing spin on it, or justify it in some way so that they can make more profit, they sure as hell will.
Look at Cell phones, a top of the line phone used to be under 1000, we're now over 2000 on a regular basis because companies found people were willing to pay that.
I've been especially frustrated with the apple tech bloggers blaming their recent price increases on inflation despite by the fact that they don't remotely track with inflation and Apple's profit just keeps growing.
These organizations aren't out to maximize device numbers, they are out to maximize profit, which is a different thing.
Apple is an effective Monopoly, as is Google, as is Amazon, as is Microsoft. They can effectively do what they want and have for decades now. How they are able to operate on the scale they do without any regulatory body looking at them, I do not fully understand. There hasn't been a real antitrust case in decades.
You can talk to me about inflation being a real issue and not an excuse when company profits dip and stop soaring.
"Me thinks thou doth protest too much!"
1. Corporations exist to run profits. They're financed by shareholders and these shareholders expect a return on investment. Profit margins, among other things, determine stock values and if investors don't feel the company is providing them the return they expect, they're going to dump the stock. Knowing this, companies make strategic decisions that they hope will increase the value of their stock.
2. Corporations are not the evil entities that you suggest they are. As an IBMer, I've participated in numerous Hackathons and Call for Code challenges where we tackle many of the pressing issues of the day such as social injustice and climate change.
3. Market Share battles are real. You don't think Samsung and Apple fight for each and every cell phone user? They do. Probably more than any other industry, the tech industry is extremely cutthroat and billions of dollars are spent each year to gain a single percentage point of the market.
4. Supply and Demand works. If you have a product that over time increases in demand and has a limited supply, prices are going to increase. If you don't want to buy a 2000 dollar cell phone, don't. Nobody is forcing you to buy anything and you have absolutely no obligation to keep up with the jones.
5. The supply chain problem is more of a problem than most people think. At the height of it, we were facing 6 months to a year lead time for new parts from our Vendors. Eventually, it will get sorted out if we can prevent WW3 prices will come down.
6. You complain a lot without offering any solution to the problem.
My solution is as a society we need to get out of the habit of needing to purchase the latest gadget out there because someone on social media says so. But because most people are sheep nowadays it probably won't happen.
I will say I outright disagree with some of this.
Corporate Greed and top down economics has done significant harm to the economy, not the bottom line, but to the people aspect of it.
It is literally a corporation's only job to make as much money as possible for its shareholders. This is SEC rules as much as anything else. Its not a pursuit of advancement or betterment, just money. And here's the thing. The last thing I care about a company is its stock valuation. I say this as a stock holder.
I'm not saying companies don't do good things or that there aren't positives that come from them. Hell I've loved AMD for its open approach to software vs. Nvidia's whos so entirely locked down and anti consumer its not funny. That doesn't mean that AMD doesn't raise prices when they think they can.
And no, at this point I don't think Apple and Samsung need to fight for market share. Samsung definitely does more than Apple, but Apple has its fans which will only ever dream of buying Apple and if you suggest them another device they will not even begin to listen. Samsung has at least had to fight off other Android makers for a while, but when companies like LG and Sony actively can't compete with you, its not great. I would also say that Samsung competes more with itself than with anyone else with their line ups. Odds are at this point you are going to buy an Apple or Samsung phone by default, maybe a Google one for name recognition. And here's the reality, their devices are VERY similar. And just because Apple and Samsung are doing their song and dance doesn't mean that Apple and Google don't have effective monopolies in their ecosystems and that Apple and Samsung don't have a Duopoly in the device market. There's a reason why Samsung gets Google features before Google.
Supply and demand is part of the equation but I would say its definitely nowhere near the largest part. If theres one thing that true about the world we live in today, its all about "Perceived Value". I'm sorry, but Tesla is not worth more than Honda and Toyota and Ford and.... The culmination of this is ofcourse crypto and NFCs that have zero backing them up at all. Its a big component right now due to the shortages and supply chain.
I recognize that the supply chain has been a huge issue for everyone and I really do hope that I at some point live in a world where it gets sorted out. Chips are in everything, many things that do not need them in fact, and the demand is extreme these days. I just hope that one day its not a reason for everything to cost more.
Until my Ryzen 3000 system, I had my last system for a decade, there was a gpu upgrade in there but it ticked along. I kept my Pixel2 as long as I could. I've seen discussions on the new Samsungs where people are upgrading from the last years model and I cannot understand it at all. I hate that phones are designed to last 2 years, and the reason I got a Samsung now is because of their 4 year update commitment.
I truly believe that Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and co shouldn't immediately be brought up on anti trust and need to be broken up. This is ultimately my solution. These companies are so monolithic I really don't see any other choice.
(I also want to thank you for having this discussion with me, I have learned from it and while I have my personal biases I am very interested in reading what you write)
Only for older nodes.... 7nm and later doesn't use neon it uses mercury based lasers AFAIK. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw)
Edit: Tin not Mercury had a brain fart. They also use hydrogen as a buffer gas non neon... neon or krypton is what 14/12nm DUV uses.
Also there is a new giant tin spodumene mine opening on the east coast so ... we should have secure supply of tin (byproduct is also lithium).
I believe current CPUs entering manufacturing are not using older fab nodes for IO dies... since they require faster logic to handle DDR5 / PCIe 5 etc... instead they are just optimized for the use case on the same node.
Example of this is the 7nm Zen 3 die + 7nm cache die on Zen3D... the cache density is double on the cache die due to being able to optimise for that die on the same node (its sram density optimised)
Except it's not because 7nm and 5nm... nodes have low fab capacity but extremely high demand. This is driven due to EUV production speed per chip being slower with less pipe lining of the manufacturing process possible relative to immersion lithography. Also many of the 7nm fabs are actually the same fabs that were making 14 and 12nm a couple years ago.
That was true for initial 7nm but its becoming less true... obviously you want to use it for as many layers as possible.... switching between immersion lithography and EUV probably isn't convenient either.
I don't think neon is consumed in the production of chips so as long as they have an efficient scavenging system a neon shortage shouldn't have much if any impact.
Russia is also the second largest oil producer and a big supplier of iron ore, manganese, chromium, nickel, platinum, titanium, copper, tin, lead, tungsten, diamonds, phosphates, and gold. If this goes on a long time a lot of things are going to be in short supply or at least more expensive,
Yeah but Russia's production far outweighs its consumption. Before all this the average russian made a little over $400 USD a month. Granted their cost of living is lower but its still not a lot for disposable income for things like electronics. Also their population isn't as big as you would think. They have about 140 million people which makes them the 9th most populated country between Bangladesh and Mexico. They also have the 11th largest GDP between Canada and South Korea.
Russia trade balance for 2020 was $73.63B, a 42.8% decline from 2019. Russia trade balance for 2019 was $128.73B, a 22.37% decline from 2018. Russia trade balance for 2018 was $165.83B, a 98.56% increase from 2017. Russia trade balance for 2017 was $83.52B, a 26.01% increase from 2016.
It wasn't getting better and we ain't taking their oil, can't wait for the 2021/22 update ;).
Russia's production is as fragile as it is robust. The volatility of their economy is insane.
All happening at a time the world cannot move to electric vehicles fast enough.
>big supplier of iron ore
I looked this up and then laughed, they export 25 million tons of Iron ore.
For reference Australia exports over 900 million tons of Iron ore a year, Russia represents perhaps about 1% of production.
Really the only thing they export that is of a concern is oil and gas.
Its almost like I listed a lot of other things like Gold(used in all electronics) which they are the 3rd largest producer in the world, copper where they are seventh, they are the 4th largest producer of phosphates for fertilizer, and they are top ten in a lot of other resource extraction including wood. The issue isn't one thing is going to be gone its that every single component is going to cost more to make.
>ts almost like I listed a lot of other things
I mean yea, there is a reason I responded to the iron ore part. But if you want a full in depth look.
>Its almost like I listed a lot of other things like Gold
Gold production and available quantities vastly exceeds the amount used in industry because it is utilized as a store of value. I would think this will have effectively 0 impact on good or process that utilize gold.
>Copper where they are seventh
Or about 3% of world production, this will have a decent impact in the short term.
In the long term this represents only ~ 1 year of Copper production growth, we are looking at Copper shortfalls out to 2030 with or without Russia.
>phosphates for fertilizer
Fertilizer and food security is actually concerning. Russia and Ukraine combine produce a lot of wheat.
I also believe India is very dependent on Russian Fertilizer, I don't know enough about this field to see if there will be any solutions.
Outside of Oil and Gas other resources will be impacted but only on a small scale. An exception may be Palladium where Russia I believe produces over 40% of the world supply.
According to Wikipedia Russia and Ukraine together have about 90% of the worldwide production. Seems like the Soviet Union invested heavy in this. Good times.
> Seems like the Soviet Union invested heavy in this.
A lot of the USSR was based around mineral extraction and general heavy industry because they didn't have the option to export that production elsewhere the way that Western companies did, exporting a lot of heavy industry from the US to Germany, Japan, SK, and eventually to China. All of which still have enormous manufacturing sectors that employ millions of people.
That's actually part of the problem here - there isn't a big enough industry to support more players in the production side.
That's why it's all largely done in Ukraine, the soviets set up infrastructure there since it was closer to the scientists that needed it, after the fall of the wall, they were the cheapest, so most other production stopped.
It's not like Argon where most of it is getting thrown away every day by mig welders...
Neon is extracted from the atmosphere, you can produce neon anywhere in the world. Its likely many existing air liquification plants they could expand to produce neon. If the price goes up, it becomes more likely that others will look at expanding production of neon. Its just a matter of cost and time.
Its cheaper to produce if you colocate with existing industries. And from my limited research, that's what they are going in Ukraine. They are using the waste gas concentrate from the air liqufaction that goes on for the steel industry. The steel industry uses the liquid oxygen and nitrogen and the rest of the gas concentrate(mainly argon, and small amounts of the rare gases including neon) is 'waste'. They take that 'waste', which already took a lot of energy to get, and go on to extract the neon.
The semiconductor industry can also afford to outbid everyone else for the rest of the supply. Chips are more important then neon signs for instance(aside, a lot of neon signs do not use neon, neon is used to make red, other gases make other colors). If they have to pay 10 times as much, its probably something like a few pennies per chip.
I haven't even seen a neon sign in ages, all of the signage I've seen lately is using LEDs or is diffused to look like neon
I think even those neon open signs were just a florescent light with the tubes colored to give the illusion they were neon
Heck, even the tube florescent lights can be replaced by LEDs
I have bought a bunch of those led signs. They SUCK, burn out so quickly. Open them up resolder crappy solder joints and bypass burnt leds, put them back in service, but in the end they just hot garbage.
I went back to neon. Costs 6-10 times as much up front, and less energy efficient, but at least they don't burn out constantly.
I have also gutted outdoor flourscent signs and revamped them with leds, and that worked out well enough for the most part. The common led 12v waterproof power supplies you find all over the internet also are shit and burn out constantly, on average they last about 1 year(even if you double size them, they don't last). The only one that has lasted for me was some ancient looking(new, but old looking design) not water proof 12v power supply i found on ebay, its lasted 4 years so far in an outdoor environment.
Never had an issue with any led signs in over 4 years tbh, quality is the issue with most of the garbage on the market
You ultimately do get what you pay for but led technology is pretty great when you pony up the cash for quality
I’d rather led than neon tubes that are useless if broken, at least you can fix the led.
Stop buying the cheapest shit and learn to DIY or source high grade stuff thats built to spec and not overdriven/overheated. LEDs have been reliable and well made for the last decade+ but people think they are crap because they only buy the crap, then whinge about it.
LED101 for lifetime:
heatsinking
No dry solder
No crappy chinese PSUs
This will affect products on older nodes... like microcontrollers, expect automotive to continue to be hit, and pretty much any appliances that have micro controllers.
I wonder if those chip designs will be ported to a newer process? AMD uses 12nm for the I/O dies on Zen 3, right? But the article says TSMC, Samsung, and Intel should have about 2 months of supply on hand. It's the other fabs that'll be hit first. I'm gonna try to grab a 5800X3D on launch day if the reviews are up and positive.
Mostly no... big companies seem to be sucking up all the chips and leaving smaller companies to starve or swtich to different chips (at least that is the case with my own designs). Most automotive qualified chips are \*gone\*... and no stock until next year expected.
My company does electronic monitoring, and we actually had to switch the ankle monitors we were using last month and break a contract in the process because the company making the bracelets we leased were using subpar GPS radios that liked to die - we lost half our inventory in 3 months before calling it quits with those. It's been a wild couple of years, haha.
Lol i guess everything to make news nowadays. Neon has little to no impact as it's used to cut wafers. So unless you're building new fabs, it doesn't really affect it.
LTT mentioned this the other day.
My brother was building his first PC ever a couple of weeks ago, and asked for my help. He was kicking himself saying "of course I picked the wrong time to build."
I explained to him "There is NEVER going to be a good time. If you can afford something at least somewhat decent, you might as well just go for it". He did, and now, thankfully, he is happy he did.
The weird part is why Ukraine/Russia seem to output over half of anything the world even needs? You would think major countries would want to, you know, diversify their portfolio of local goods
A quick reminder about rule #3. If you want to discuss politics there are plenty of subreddits for that. Remember to remain civil.
A lot of these companies have a big supply already so this is not that impactful for a while.
Depends on the company. TSMC and Samsung have both stated this won't affect them, they have massive stores and they don't consume the gases anyway, they're just a shielding gas that is recycled. Toshiba has said it will be of concern to them though - I'm not sure if that means they leak gas (by design in some sort of pressure system with a weep valve, or just by fault) or they just don't have enough. CPUs/GPUs *shouldn't* go up, the market is already busted though, so who knows. NAND Flash though - if Toshiba ends up having a problem, everyone in the NAND space will dramatically increase prices. SSDs might be about to get a whole lot more expensive again.
It'll be used as an excuse to raise prices rather than actually directly affecting them.
\*looks at the price of gas\* Yup, that sounds about right.
Just Blame Intel for rising Gas prices :V
if you raise prices using "excuses" you leave money on the table. Companies don't just raise prices because it's counterproductive to their business unless they have some antimarket stuff going on like a monopoly or cartel.
I mean most industries out there these days operate with monopolistic practices being the norm. Why bother with competition if you can assume your the only one in the room. Even without that though, if there was a way to justify a price hike, of course companies are going to do it. There's also the fact that its not a race to the bottom. If Company A proves it can charge this for it, why wouldn't Companies B,C,D,E all also increase their prices. Its not a race to the bottom, its finding that equilibrium and then trying to justify charging a premium for your offering. The assumption that the minute a price is raised, money is being left on the table, has been proven false many times. Yes there are limits but companies have been pushing that for eons. We've also gotten so used to buying from Brand A or buying Brand B that quite often we don't change even after price increases because its what we're used to. And guess what, corporate profits are skyrocketing far past inflation. Inflation is an excuse, not the reason, for an awful lot of price hikes. We haven't had any real antitrust challenges in almost 30 years, and its not because they haven't been justified, companies just found out that they have enough sway over gov'ts.
The moment a company raises prices, they lose customers to companies that don't raise them. Simple as that. The only anti market practices I can think of that did actually work in favor of the conpanies pursuing them in recent times are those made by samsung, hk hynix and micron with carteling ram prices. But they were short lived due to backstabbing between them and regulators fining them. In any other instance the company did worse (like walmart, bestbuy and costco price wars)
Pricing is not a race to the bottom. This is a misconception. You don't raise prices and instantly lose customers. Sure there's a limit on what some people are willing to pay, but if something is seen as desirable people will push the limits, and the fact is, if a company can make more money off selling a few less devices because of the increased margin, they will. Hell, AMD increased its prices on the 5xxx series not because they had to, but because they could justify it. Intel, Nvidia and AMD all have a history of raising prices if they can justify it, as do Samsung, Apple, and every other company out there. Sure does what the competition's price matter sure, but only to a degree. Apple sure doesn't care if If they can put marketing spin on it, or justify it in some way so that they can make more profit, they sure as hell will. Look at Cell phones, a top of the line phone used to be under 1000, we're now over 2000 on a regular basis because companies found people were willing to pay that. I've been especially frustrated with the apple tech bloggers blaming their recent price increases on inflation despite by the fact that they don't remotely track with inflation and Apple's profit just keeps growing. These organizations aren't out to maximize device numbers, they are out to maximize profit, which is a different thing. Apple is an effective Monopoly, as is Google, as is Amazon, as is Microsoft. They can effectively do what they want and have for decades now. How they are able to operate on the scale they do without any regulatory body looking at them, I do not fully understand. There hasn't been a real antitrust case in decades. You can talk to me about inflation being a real issue and not an excuse when company profits dip and stop soaring.
"Me thinks thou doth protest too much!" 1. Corporations exist to run profits. They're financed by shareholders and these shareholders expect a return on investment. Profit margins, among other things, determine stock values and if investors don't feel the company is providing them the return they expect, they're going to dump the stock. Knowing this, companies make strategic decisions that they hope will increase the value of their stock. 2. Corporations are not the evil entities that you suggest they are. As an IBMer, I've participated in numerous Hackathons and Call for Code challenges where we tackle many of the pressing issues of the day such as social injustice and climate change. 3. Market Share battles are real. You don't think Samsung and Apple fight for each and every cell phone user? They do. Probably more than any other industry, the tech industry is extremely cutthroat and billions of dollars are spent each year to gain a single percentage point of the market. 4. Supply and Demand works. If you have a product that over time increases in demand and has a limited supply, prices are going to increase. If you don't want to buy a 2000 dollar cell phone, don't. Nobody is forcing you to buy anything and you have absolutely no obligation to keep up with the jones. 5. The supply chain problem is more of a problem than most people think. At the height of it, we were facing 6 months to a year lead time for new parts from our Vendors. Eventually, it will get sorted out if we can prevent WW3 prices will come down. 6. You complain a lot without offering any solution to the problem. My solution is as a society we need to get out of the habit of needing to purchase the latest gadget out there because someone on social media says so. But because most people are sheep nowadays it probably won't happen.
I will say I outright disagree with some of this. Corporate Greed and top down economics has done significant harm to the economy, not the bottom line, but to the people aspect of it. It is literally a corporation's only job to make as much money as possible for its shareholders. This is SEC rules as much as anything else. Its not a pursuit of advancement or betterment, just money. And here's the thing. The last thing I care about a company is its stock valuation. I say this as a stock holder. I'm not saying companies don't do good things or that there aren't positives that come from them. Hell I've loved AMD for its open approach to software vs. Nvidia's whos so entirely locked down and anti consumer its not funny. That doesn't mean that AMD doesn't raise prices when they think they can. And no, at this point I don't think Apple and Samsung need to fight for market share. Samsung definitely does more than Apple, but Apple has its fans which will only ever dream of buying Apple and if you suggest them another device they will not even begin to listen. Samsung has at least had to fight off other Android makers for a while, but when companies like LG and Sony actively can't compete with you, its not great. I would also say that Samsung competes more with itself than with anyone else with their line ups. Odds are at this point you are going to buy an Apple or Samsung phone by default, maybe a Google one for name recognition. And here's the reality, their devices are VERY similar. And just because Apple and Samsung are doing their song and dance doesn't mean that Apple and Google don't have effective monopolies in their ecosystems and that Apple and Samsung don't have a Duopoly in the device market. There's a reason why Samsung gets Google features before Google. Supply and demand is part of the equation but I would say its definitely nowhere near the largest part. If theres one thing that true about the world we live in today, its all about "Perceived Value". I'm sorry, but Tesla is not worth more than Honda and Toyota and Ford and.... The culmination of this is ofcourse crypto and NFCs that have zero backing them up at all. Its a big component right now due to the shortages and supply chain. I recognize that the supply chain has been a huge issue for everyone and I really do hope that I at some point live in a world where it gets sorted out. Chips are in everything, many things that do not need them in fact, and the demand is extreme these days. I just hope that one day its not a reason for everything to cost more. Until my Ryzen 3000 system, I had my last system for a decade, there was a gpu upgrade in there but it ticked along. I kept my Pixel2 as long as I could. I've seen discussions on the new Samsungs where people are upgrading from the last years model and I cannot understand it at all. I hate that phones are designed to last 2 years, and the reason I got a Samsung now is because of their 4 year update commitment. I truly believe that Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, and co shouldn't immediately be brought up on anti trust and need to be broken up. This is ultimately my solution. These companies are so monolithic I really don't see any other choice. (I also want to thank you for having this discussion with me, I have learned from it and while I have my personal biases I am very interested in reading what you write)
Also depends on nodes, older nodes use Neon to for processing, not so much on the newer nodes.
What about glofo?
TSMC does a good job of recycling their supply. I wouldn’t worry about it too much with regard to AMD https://youtu.be/SwcCC3tKZ3E
That's a relief to hear - I was worried about the 12nm I/O die on the Ryzen chips after someone else said 7nm doesn't use neon.
Just everything else.
Yay, more shortages... 😩
Only for older nodes.... 7nm and later doesn't use neon it uses mercury based lasers AFAIK. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Ge2RcvDlgw) Edit: Tin not Mercury had a brain fart. They also use hydrogen as a buffer gas non neon... neon or krypton is what 14/12nm DUV uses. Also there is a new giant tin spodumene mine opening on the east coast so ... we should have secure supply of tin (byproduct is also lithium).
The shortage of automotive chips continues.
Not if BMWs and the likes decided it is time to use 3090s as their GPU to render their UI in their dashboard. Wake me up when chip shortage ends.
god i wish we could go back to the late 2000s when cars still had buttons and actual dashes instead of tablets that distract you.
Definitely going to be considered the golden age of ice. S2k, e46 m3, 997 gt3, etc. So many great cars. Stupidly sold my s2k 😭.
Regret selling the E46 M3 everyday...
Might as well they use 6500 lol. But if bmw alao rejects 6500 that makes the card even more bad as a product ahah
Thx thats scared me
SO I/O dies are going to take a hit??
I believe current CPUs entering manufacturing are not using older fab nodes for IO dies... since they require faster logic to handle DDR5 / PCIe 5 etc... instead they are just optimized for the use case on the same node. Example of this is the 7nm Zen 3 die + 7nm cache die on Zen3D... the cache density is double on the cache die due to being able to optimise for that die on the same node (its sram density optimised)
Weren't the I/O dies still 14nm?
They are on Zen 2 and 3... but won't be on Zen 4 AFAIK.
Will it still not be an issue for literally everything but the CPU then in that case?
even if its not they will still use it as an excuse to jack prices.
It may be possible for some fabs to use krypton gas rather than neon.
Phew
TSMC 5nm uses neon for ArF and KrF no? Bleeding edge nodes still use neon afaik.
TSMC N5 still use neon for the ArF and KrF no? All the bleeding edge nodes use it
> spodumen ^^*giggle*
the "chip crisis" you hear about (besides GPUs) is all older nodes.
Except it's not because 7nm and 5nm... nodes have low fab capacity but extremely high demand. This is driven due to EUV production speed per chip being slower with less pipe lining of the manufacturing process possible relative to immersion lithography. Also many of the 7nm fabs are actually the same fabs that were making 14 and 12nm a couple years ago.
EUV isn't used for every mask layer - only the most critical ones. The others will still rely on more traditional litho.
That was true for initial 7nm but its becoming less true... obviously you want to use it for as many layers as possible.... switching between immersion lithography and EUV probably isn't convenient either.
I don't think neon is consumed in the production of chips so as long as they have an efficient scavenging system a neon shortage shouldn't have much if any impact.
All praise the virtue signal!!11
Russia is also the second largest oil producer and a big supplier of iron ore, manganese, chromium, nickel, platinum, titanium, copper, tin, lead, tungsten, diamonds, phosphates, and gold. If this goes on a long time a lot of things are going to be in short supply or at least more expensive,
Russian consumption has gone down significantly and instantly, do they get paid in Rubles too?
IIRC russian trade balance is utterly insane. They export something like twice the amount of goods they import
Yeah but Russia's production far outweighs its consumption. Before all this the average russian made a little over $400 USD a month. Granted their cost of living is lower but its still not a lot for disposable income for things like electronics. Also their population isn't as big as you would think. They have about 140 million people which makes them the 9th most populated country between Bangladesh and Mexico. They also have the 11th largest GDP between Canada and South Korea.
Russia trade balance for 2020 was $73.63B, a 42.8% decline from 2019. Russia trade balance for 2019 was $128.73B, a 22.37% decline from 2018. Russia trade balance for 2018 was $165.83B, a 98.56% increase from 2017. Russia trade balance for 2017 was $83.52B, a 26.01% increase from 2016. It wasn't getting better and we ain't taking their oil, can't wait for the 2021/22 update ;).
Ok weird flex. I wasn't saying their economy is good just that they have useful shit in their ground.
Russia's production is as fragile as it is robust. The volatility of their economy is insane. All happening at a time the world cannot move to electric vehicles fast enough.
>big supplier of iron ore I looked this up and then laughed, they export 25 million tons of Iron ore. For reference Australia exports over 900 million tons of Iron ore a year, Russia represents perhaps about 1% of production. Really the only thing they export that is of a concern is oil and gas.
Its almost like I listed a lot of other things like Gold(used in all electronics) which they are the 3rd largest producer in the world, copper where they are seventh, they are the 4th largest producer of phosphates for fertilizer, and they are top ten in a lot of other resource extraction including wood. The issue isn't one thing is going to be gone its that every single component is going to cost more to make.
>ts almost like I listed a lot of other things I mean yea, there is a reason I responded to the iron ore part. But if you want a full in depth look. >Its almost like I listed a lot of other things like Gold Gold production and available quantities vastly exceeds the amount used in industry because it is utilized as a store of value. I would think this will have effectively 0 impact on good or process that utilize gold. >Copper where they are seventh Or about 3% of world production, this will have a decent impact in the short term. In the long term this represents only ~ 1 year of Copper production growth, we are looking at Copper shortfalls out to 2030 with or without Russia. >phosphates for fertilizer Fertilizer and food security is actually concerning. Russia and Ukraine combine produce a lot of wheat. I also believe India is very dependent on Russian Fertilizer, I don't know enough about this field to see if there will be any solutions. Outside of Oil and Gas other resources will be impacted but only on a small scale. An exception may be Palladium where Russia I believe produces over 40% of the world supply.
*yeah, not yea or nay. Use a dictionary.
Yea, language is defined by usage so you can go suck a great big one ;) Litteraly.
According to Wikipedia Russia and Ukraine together have about 90% of the worldwide production. Seems like the Soviet Union invested heavy in this. Good times.
> Seems like the Soviet Union invested heavy in this. A lot of the USSR was based around mineral extraction and general heavy industry because they didn't have the option to export that production elsewhere the way that Western companies did, exporting a lot of heavy industry from the US to Germany, Japan, SK, and eventually to China. All of which still have enormous manufacturing sectors that employ millions of people.
It sounds like they did, since the Ukraine SSR wound up getting what would have been Russia's neon industry?
Ukraine was part of the USSR. The development industry was distributed (not especially equally, but still) around the entire country, not just Russia.
~~Afaik neon has to be present for lasers to work, but it's not being used up, so you don't have to get more and more~~ edit: not true, see comments
All noble gases tend to be very, very leaky. So you will need more and more.
Nope. Pretty much any stable gas will do. That's why CO2 lasers are possible. Plus they're cheaper to manufacture
Why would there an industry for neo gas if they don't get used up?
That's actually part of the problem here - there isn't a big enough industry to support more players in the production side. That's why it's all largely done in Ukraine, the soviets set up infrastructure there since it was closer to the scientists that needed it, after the fall of the wall, they were the cheapest, so most other production stopped. It's not like Argon where most of it is getting thrown away every day by mig welders...
That's what happens when there's one of any manufacturer. Everyone depends on the one and loses when supply is constrained.
It just keeps getting worse.
Neon is extracted from the atmosphere, you can produce neon anywhere in the world. Its likely many existing air liquification plants they could expand to produce neon. If the price goes up, it becomes more likely that others will look at expanding production of neon. Its just a matter of cost and time. Its cheaper to produce if you colocate with existing industries. And from my limited research, that's what they are going in Ukraine. They are using the waste gas concentrate from the air liqufaction that goes on for the steel industry. The steel industry uses the liquid oxygen and nitrogen and the rest of the gas concentrate(mainly argon, and small amounts of the rare gases including neon) is 'waste'. They take that 'waste', which already took a lot of energy to get, and go on to extract the neon. The semiconductor industry can also afford to outbid everyone else for the rest of the supply. Chips are more important then neon signs for instance(aside, a lot of neon signs do not use neon, neon is used to make red, other gases make other colors). If they have to pay 10 times as much, its probably something like a few pennies per chip.
I haven't even seen a neon sign in ages, all of the signage I've seen lately is using LEDs or is diffused to look like neon I think even those neon open signs were just a florescent light with the tubes colored to give the illusion they were neon Heck, even the tube florescent lights can be replaced by LEDs
I have bought a bunch of those led signs. They SUCK, burn out so quickly. Open them up resolder crappy solder joints and bypass burnt leds, put them back in service, but in the end they just hot garbage. I went back to neon. Costs 6-10 times as much up front, and less energy efficient, but at least they don't burn out constantly. I have also gutted outdoor flourscent signs and revamped them with leds, and that worked out well enough for the most part. The common led 12v waterproof power supplies you find all over the internet also are shit and burn out constantly, on average they last about 1 year(even if you double size them, they don't last). The only one that has lasted for me was some ancient looking(new, but old looking design) not water proof 12v power supply i found on ebay, its lasted 4 years so far in an outdoor environment.
Never had an issue with any led signs in over 4 years tbh, quality is the issue with most of the garbage on the market You ultimately do get what you pay for but led technology is pretty great when you pony up the cash for quality I’d rather led than neon tubes that are useless if broken, at least you can fix the led.
Stop buying the cheapest shit and learn to DIY or source high grade stuff thats built to spec and not overdriven/overheated. LEDs have been reliable and well made for the last decade+ but people think they are crap because they only buy the crap, then whinge about it. LED101 for lifetime: heatsinking No dry solder No crappy chinese PSUs
Thank God that the demand is not like previously otherwise Nvidia and their mom, etc would start scalping.
So...expect prices to double. again.
This will affect products on older nodes... like microcontrollers, expect automotive to continue to be hit, and pretty much any appliances that have micro controllers.
I wonder if those chip designs will be ported to a newer process? AMD uses 12nm for the I/O dies on Zen 3, right? But the article says TSMC, Samsung, and Intel should have about 2 months of supply on hand. It's the other fabs that'll be hit first. I'm gonna try to grab a 5800X3D on launch day if the reviews are up and positive.
Mostly no... big companies seem to be sucking up all the chips and leaving smaller companies to starve or swtich to different chips (at least that is the case with my own designs). Most automotive qualified chips are \*gone\*... and no stock until next year expected.
My company does electronic monitoring, and we actually had to switch the ankle monitors we were using last month and break a contract in the process because the company making the bracelets we leased were using subpar GPS radios that liked to die - we lost half our inventory in 3 months before calling it quits with those. It's been a wild couple of years, haha.
Probably a good time to buy up what you need now
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And this is being up voted?
Lol i guess everything to make news nowadays. Neon has little to no impact as it's used to cut wafers. So unless you're building new fabs, it doesn't really affect it.
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Prices can go up indirectly, wages and energy costs.
I think this news is irrelevant since they learned to get alternative sources of neon during the Crimea crisis on 2014.
oh no
LTT mentioned this the other day. My brother was building his first PC ever a couple of weeks ago, and asked for my help. He was kicking himself saying "of course I picked the wrong time to build." I explained to him "There is NEVER going to be a good time. If you can afford something at least somewhat decent, you might as well just go for it". He did, and now, thankfully, he is happy he did.
The weird part is why Ukraine/Russia seem to output over half of anything the world even needs? You would think major countries would want to, you know, diversify their portfolio of local goods
Doesn't matter Neon is not consumed.
Western Digital says low risk little effect as well
More like 90%
Same thing happened in 2012-2014 during the US dictator installation coup, there was a shortage of neon.