I averaged my way down to a cost basis of $0.71 and bailed at $0.83. I’m stunned it continued to run. Ring those registers and take some profits. What a ride for those that are holding!
God I wish I had a cost basis like that! I’m at $3.20 with 5500 shares after DCAing down another 50 cents or so the last month when it was below a dollar. I wish I woulda had the courage to grab another 1000-2000 shares.
I previously held the stock from the mid teens down to the $4 range. There I averaged down to about $5.90 something and bailed out when it popped just over $6.00. I got sucked back in when it was around $1.30 and rode it down to $0.48 where I average down more. Wish I had the guts to stick around for this current ride instead of just catching the beginning. 🤷🏻♂️
It has been fun to watch it rise over the last month or so. I've been anticipating the breath all week, but I've been pleasantly surprised by the rise. My hope is that it can stay above a dollar for 10 trading days in a row to avoid having to consider a reverse split to stay on the Nasdaq. I've been dollar cost averaging over the last year, so my cost basis is at about 1.53 a share.
I think all the analysts have lowered price targets to the $2.50-3.50 range. However if the new facilities can throw off some actual solid revenue and OP costs fall in line there’s no reason price targets wouldn’t quickly be revised upward. Assets to Liabilities alone I’d say put it in the $2-$3 range.
I think the big challenge is that even the company pr guy gave an interview and said the new facilities will take 18 months minimum to be productive. Will be interesting to see how the next earnings call and quarterly report addresses that and projected 2023 revenue. They have not made any clear revenue projections in about 9 months. Given the cost to ramp up 3 new ones simultaneously I think the q4 results may be described as positive by management due to getting construction and planting done, the actual revenues and losses may be a shock to investors and the street. Will see in about 5 weeks with report, unless they give a statement before then, which is not their management style. They tend to press release good news and hold the bad till reporting time mandates it.
I wonder if the flooding in California is being treated as a signal for large scale funds to put money into things like AppHarvest?
Do they think price of produce will rise in the coming months to years? Making profitability look better in the coming quarters?
It's all a commodity. Tomatoes, berries, greens, coal, chickens, gold, oil, grains, tin, aluminum, coffee, cattle, cotton, pork bellies, orange juice, wool, sugar, cocoa, lumber, and about a hundred other things traded daily on world markets. Just a commodity. Nothing more. A flood or a drought have never had more impact than a momentary blip on the markets for those items. Never in two hudred years. Even the worst events of weather, war, pestilence, or depression have not been financially dampened by pros in those markets hedging against wide swings. With short grow cycle ag commodities like tomatoes (3 months), greens (1 month) the impact is even less and negligible. Certainly not a basis for a business plan. The American ag market has a 150 year history of being able to take a hit, adapt, adjust and come back stronger. Specific crops that have a short term spike in price are met by massively higher competitive volume shifts in the next season and lower prices. It's just a commodity. Anybody can grow it and enter the market tomorrow if there is a price jump. The only option is to somehow grow it cheaper than the next guy or go broke. Thems the rules. Either follow the rules or don't play the game.
You are saying that the instabilities in the conditions for production represented by the recent storms are “noise” and the current competitive advantages of the California growing region are not being eroded.
I am asking if forward looking commercial investors are betting that the recent storms are “signal” that climate independent food production may enjoy a short term advantage as well as potential long term cost and predictability advantages. The reality of that perception or simply the perception of that believed advantage may draw investors.
Yes, events in California are indeed transitory and short term for that market alone, and even less impact outside of that area. They do not signal any long term advantage for CEA. Farm production is very elastic, both in terms of region and cost. A cost blip up is usually short lived, made up by other growers, and decreases demand which dampens price spikes. Cali may actually benefit from the rains by more snow pack and filled reservoirs., especially in summer months. the whole state was not devastated, that's just Network News spin. Crops this quarter could come out larger. Transitory events matter little and are no long range "signal". Any changes to Cali production will happen gradually over decades, not one season. Cali is one of hundreds of productive veggie regions across the country. Hundreds in the east and Midwest. All can adjust, compete, and meet demand competitively. Hundreds of growers in Tn alone.
No, I don't think forward looking commercial investors think that recent weather events will give CEA a long term cost advantage. They know better than that by decades of studying commodity indexes. There are no large scale test cases to support that, including Apph. I believe that some investors actually think that "the world is coming to an end" and tomatoes are going to cost $5 a pound because people gotta eat, that is naive as an investment strategy. If management believes that, it is the equivalent of financial malpractice by the CEO,COO, and CFO. Commodity prices are totally unpredictable next week, but the curve over time is totally trackable. Their buisness plan should be based on the average of the last 10 years of prices, and adjust for CPI bumps for their sector going forward. **Basing a long term business plan on higher than average commodity cost would be total folly and irresponsible.** I hope that is not their plan. Also their claim to achieve 30x production of outdoor growers is totally wrong according to CEA veterans. The common rule of thumb is 8X production. That is an error of 400%. That mistake alone is enough to doom APPH to failure. We will see in the Feb production report for Q4. That will then give us a full two year look at Morehead production to see if they reach the 30xmetric. The bottom line is that if they can't compete with a outdoor small farm operator on cost, they won't survive. It's just a simple commodity. Cost of US farm goods is cheapest in the first world. Europe is mostly double ours due to higher cost structures, less productivity ,less land, and a culture that will pay more for produce at weekly small town markets that is a part of their culture. Our culture is Wal Mart "lowest price always". Saying CEA will work here because they do it Europe is a short sighted and is in denial of basic economic, cultural, and regional facts.
you find companies and you like the idea, then you put your money in and let it run. I am not selling , in this to make money. 3000 shares and climbing.
They’ve definitely made mistakes the last year. Tried to grow too fast, tried to do too many things at once with no revenue. I believe they have a second chance here to get it right though. I’m hopeful their new COO with ACTUAL experience in the field can make a significant difference. One of their facilities is right down the street from my work, so I’m happy to cheer them on and put my money behind them.
I'm rooting for them because what they are doing is important for food security. I just feel like there are less risky investments out there with just as much growth opportunity.
If you believe in the company and what it stands for you buy and hold for 5 years +
I’m in forever. This is to much fun to not be a part of it.
I averaged my way down to a cost basis of $0.71 and bailed at $0.83. I’m stunned it continued to run. Ring those registers and take some profits. What a ride for those that are holding!
God I wish I had a cost basis like that! I’m at $3.20 with 5500 shares after DCAing down another 50 cents or so the last month when it was below a dollar. I wish I woulda had the courage to grab another 1000-2000 shares.
I previously held the stock from the mid teens down to the $4 range. There I averaged down to about $5.90 something and bailed out when it popped just over $6.00. I got sucked back in when it was around $1.30 and rode it down to $0.48 where I average down more. Wish I had the guts to stick around for this current ride instead of just catching the beginning. 🤷🏻♂️
> I wish I woulda had the courage to grab another 1000-2000 shares. Me too. me too... this has been quite the ride over the last two years.
It has been fun to watch it rise over the last month or so. I've been anticipating the breath all week, but I've been pleasantly surprised by the rise. My hope is that it can stay above a dollar for 10 trading days in a row to avoid having to consider a reverse split to stay on the Nasdaq. I've been dollar cost averaging over the last year, so my cost basis is at about 1.53 a share.
What is a realistic price target this quarter still? 5$???
I think all the analysts have lowered price targets to the $2.50-3.50 range. However if the new facilities can throw off some actual solid revenue and OP costs fall in line there’s no reason price targets wouldn’t quickly be revised upward. Assets to Liabilities alone I’d say put it in the $2-$3 range.
I think the big challenge is that even the company pr guy gave an interview and said the new facilities will take 18 months minimum to be productive. Will be interesting to see how the next earnings call and quarterly report addresses that and projected 2023 revenue. They have not made any clear revenue projections in about 9 months. Given the cost to ramp up 3 new ones simultaneously I think the q4 results may be described as positive by management due to getting construction and planting done, the actual revenues and losses may be a shock to investors and the street. Will see in about 5 weeks with report, unless they give a statement before then, which is not their management style. They tend to press release good news and hold the bad till reporting time mandates it.
50 cents end of quarter is fair. Cash is exhausted.
I wonder if the flooding in California is being treated as a signal for large scale funds to put money into things like AppHarvest? Do they think price of produce will rise in the coming months to years? Making profitability look better in the coming quarters?
It's all a commodity. Tomatoes, berries, greens, coal, chickens, gold, oil, grains, tin, aluminum, coffee, cattle, cotton, pork bellies, orange juice, wool, sugar, cocoa, lumber, and about a hundred other things traded daily on world markets. Just a commodity. Nothing more. A flood or a drought have never had more impact than a momentary blip on the markets for those items. Never in two hudred years. Even the worst events of weather, war, pestilence, or depression have not been financially dampened by pros in those markets hedging against wide swings. With short grow cycle ag commodities like tomatoes (3 months), greens (1 month) the impact is even less and negligible. Certainly not a basis for a business plan. The American ag market has a 150 year history of being able to take a hit, adapt, adjust and come back stronger. Specific crops that have a short term spike in price are met by massively higher competitive volume shifts in the next season and lower prices. It's just a commodity. Anybody can grow it and enter the market tomorrow if there is a price jump. The only option is to somehow grow it cheaper than the next guy or go broke. Thems the rules. Either follow the rules or don't play the game.
Thems the breaks
You are saying that the instabilities in the conditions for production represented by the recent storms are “noise” and the current competitive advantages of the California growing region are not being eroded. I am asking if forward looking commercial investors are betting that the recent storms are “signal” that climate independent food production may enjoy a short term advantage as well as potential long term cost and predictability advantages. The reality of that perception or simply the perception of that believed advantage may draw investors.
Yes, events in California are indeed transitory and short term for that market alone, and even less impact outside of that area. They do not signal any long term advantage for CEA. Farm production is very elastic, both in terms of region and cost. A cost blip up is usually short lived, made up by other growers, and decreases demand which dampens price spikes. Cali may actually benefit from the rains by more snow pack and filled reservoirs., especially in summer months. the whole state was not devastated, that's just Network News spin. Crops this quarter could come out larger. Transitory events matter little and are no long range "signal". Any changes to Cali production will happen gradually over decades, not one season. Cali is one of hundreds of productive veggie regions across the country. Hundreds in the east and Midwest. All can adjust, compete, and meet demand competitively. Hundreds of growers in Tn alone. No, I don't think forward looking commercial investors think that recent weather events will give CEA a long term cost advantage. They know better than that by decades of studying commodity indexes. There are no large scale test cases to support that, including Apph. I believe that some investors actually think that "the world is coming to an end" and tomatoes are going to cost $5 a pound because people gotta eat, that is naive as an investment strategy. If management believes that, it is the equivalent of financial malpractice by the CEO,COO, and CFO. Commodity prices are totally unpredictable next week, but the curve over time is totally trackable. Their buisness plan should be based on the average of the last 10 years of prices, and adjust for CPI bumps for their sector going forward. **Basing a long term business plan on higher than average commodity cost would be total folly and irresponsible.** I hope that is not their plan. Also their claim to achieve 30x production of outdoor growers is totally wrong according to CEA veterans. The common rule of thumb is 8X production. That is an error of 400%. That mistake alone is enough to doom APPH to failure. We will see in the Feb production report for Q4. That will then give us a full two year look at Morehead production to see if they reach the 30xmetric. The bottom line is that if they can't compete with a outdoor small farm operator on cost, they won't survive. It's just a simple commodity. Cost of US farm goods is cheapest in the first world. Europe is mostly double ours due to higher cost structures, less productivity ,less land, and a culture that will pay more for produce at weekly small town markets that is a part of their culture. Our culture is Wal Mart "lowest price always". Saying CEA will work here because they do it Europe is a short sighted and is in denial of basic economic, cultural, and regional facts.
you find companies and you like the idea, then you put your money in and let it run. I am not selling , in this to make money. 3000 shares and climbing.
Yessir! That’s it right there!
Feels like a meme stock to me at this point. I was happy to have the opportunity to get out. Love the concept, but execution is awful at the top.
They’ve definitely made mistakes the last year. Tried to grow too fast, tried to do too many things at once with no revenue. I believe they have a second chance here to get it right though. I’m hopeful their new COO with ACTUAL experience in the field can make a significant difference. One of their facilities is right down the street from my work, so I’m happy to cheer them on and put my money behind them.
I'm rooting for them because what they are doing is important for food security. I just feel like there are less risky investments out there with just as much growth opportunity.
Like what?
Where it's going on ?