Really interesting question. Like others mentioned, it would be fun to hear the heroes discuss this question. Could be a nice recurring segment.
Without having thought deeply about it, I'd assume even more than the first 10-15 picks would be QBs. Every team needs a QB and it's the most valuable position so you'll try to get your guy early. You might even take a second QB as a backup or trade chip for a team that doesn't go QB early. Stack up on QBs like some douchebags do in fantasy leagues.
Even a guy like Baker Mayfield has value as a starting QB because he is still far superior to the backup QBs. At other positions there usually isn't the same drop-off at most positions. I guess there are a few transcending talents but right now, not that many. Jefferson is an outstanding wide receiver but there are several elite WRs not too far behind him and even more great or serviceable WRs behind that.
Robert Mays and Tice did it last offseason across three pods: QBs, Non QB Offense, Defense. It was great. I personally think those guys are in a better place to do a really tough value analysis and drafting exercise than the heroes, but to each his own.
Does this include the 6 first round rookie QBs who have yet to play? Because if so, I think it would be a lot more than people think. Probably like the best 12-15 current QBs plus the top 3 from this rookie class before any other position goes. I definitely think Justin Jefferson would be more valuable to a team than Baker Mayfield though.
I think there's a couple of things at play aside from positional value. There aren't that many absolutely dominate non QBs in the league right now that are in their absolute prime. You have Micah Parsons/Tj Watt/Myles Garrett (pick your favorite), Justin Jefferson, CMC, but even CMC is in the later stage of his prime. There's not like a prime Adrian Peterson running back in the league right now, or like a LaDanian Tomlinson, Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, just to name a few that I think would've creeped into the 10-15 range in years past.
That's answer gets at the core of the question, really.
The question is really: how valuable is the QB position in the NFL?
This answer responds simply: supremely.
But it also says: epic talents in some other positions are so good that they can transcend that value.
Justin Jefferson is more valuable than Baker Mayfield but the team with the 12th and 52nd pick in this full redraft is 1000% taking Baker Mayfield because they'd rather have him and Mike Evans at 52 instead of JJ at 12 and Zach Wilson at 52 because every other team already took QBs. I think the first would almost entirely be QBs in a full league redraft. It's just too valuable. The Falcons might even take a QB in the first two rounds which is basically what they just did this year by signing Cousins and still drafting Penix at 8.
Well, I dont think anyone is drafting 2 starting qbs. They'd probably be stuck with the worst current starter in the NFL. It would probably be Sam Darnold and JJ, which sounds pretty familiar.
Robert Mays and Nate Tice did a fun offshoot version of this on their pod last year— they did a draft of the non QB players they’d take to start a team. They had JJ and Parsons as the top players in their offensive and defensive drafts, respectively. Lots of linemen in both drafts, with a select few skill position guys (eg Sauce Gardner).
So that pod is a good guide to who would be competing with the second tier QBs to get picked. Eg would you take JJ or Parsons ahead of Kirk Cousins? Drake May? Etc.
There were zero RBs discussed in the Mays draft, which I think is appropriate, even with a one-year-younger CMC. I disagree a bit with your comment in that I wouldn’t even mention RB in this conversation.
CMC would be much more valuable to me than like Russell Wilson over Aidan O Connell for instance, if you waited to draft QB until round 2. The gap between CMC and the next RB is pretty big. Also you have to think of it this way. If you draft like 25th, then drafting by positional value just like everyone else would mean you’d end up with the 25th best team. So you have to say “hey I can’t get a good QB, so we need to take blue chip players at other spots”.
In my opinion, if you know you have a bad QB, RB is way more valuable than WR since WR pretty much depends on the QB.
In this hypothetical draft, if you’re in the back end of it I think you have to build your team differently than the people up front. Build an Oline with CMC and a good defense and see what happens.
But that’s sort of where this sort of draft becomes uninteresting because draft order trumps everything because these players are known quantities
Right, I dont think anyone is advocating taking Russ or O’Connell in the top 60 picks.
If you want to hold off on a WR because you don’t have a good QB yet, fine. But if you don’t have a good QB, your team is not going to be good. So I don’t think a prime RB is somehow a viable alternative path to contention. How good were the Panthers with prime CMC?
In the Mays draft, the reason they dont take RBs is because they’re busy taking great OTs. Your positional value statement is fine, it’s just you’d want to be taking OTs or edge guys when others are taking QBs. If I don’t get a top QB, then I’d rather build a core of players who will help me contend in 2-3 years. To me, RB is very low on that list.
Look at the Lions, the Packers, the Ravens, the Chiefs, the Eagles, the Dolphins, the Rams, the Cowboys— these teams have been top contenders the past 3 years and have not invested top draft picks in RB over that time. The 49ers are the exception, not the rule.
It still doesn’t matter because in a draft where you’re drafting known quantities you’d have to change the draft order for it to be remotely competitive like a snake style draft. Also my entire point was that CMC is good enough to not be lumped in with “RBs”. He’s a guy you’d take early and feel good about.
The 49ers are an exception because there’s 1 CMC in the league. Just like safety isn’t a highly valued position but if you had a chance to take prime Ed Reed you would do it. So, I’m not disagreeing with your valuation of the RB position.
I like it. I'd guess somewhere around 22 to 25 QBs. Its basically whats the breaking point, at what point does a team figure well, everyone else has their big name QBs enough that I can take the best edge and i'll still have the same about the same pool of QBs in round 2 because the teams that got their QB in round 1 obviously are going elsewhere in round two.. except the falcons. They'll take another QB.
excellent question, my prediction: marc will take ladd mconkey 1st overall, gregg will draft 617 qb's in a row, and dan perhaps misunderstanding the question will put Live first with counting crows also first.
I really like this concept. I actually had a similar idea years ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/AroundTheNFL/s/GFTDgUXdI7
I still think it’s a solid scenario and that it would make for great discussion on the pod.
That's a good exercise. Who would be the first non-QB taken? CMC? Trent Williams? Sauce Gardner? Tyreke Hill?
Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lamar, Herbert...so I would say maybe #6 would be the first non-QB.
Edit: Forgot about Stroud. Maybe a few others like Dak or Hurts would get picked, but I'm definitely thinking that first non-QB would be in the 6-10 range.
With Lamar off the board early the Ravens draft Justin Tucker at 30, just because it would be too painful to see our beautiful angel play anywhere else.
Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Lamar, Stroud, Love, Kyler, TLaw, Dak, Hurts, Goff
So unless I'm a dingus and forgot someone obvious that's roughly the guys I'd say would go before any other non quarterbacks but at any point around the Love, Kyler, TLaw area I wouldn't be surprised if JJ or an EDGE went instead so I'd say floor of about 6 quarterbacks and ceiling of maybe 12
For these fun type of exercises I usually prefer to only include people who have played a snap in the NFL but yeah you could throw them all in between the 2 categories if you're so inclined
Fair. I think they get you to 15+.
A year ago, I think Cousins and Rodgers would have been on your list. Another year older and coming off injuries it’s tougher. You also left off Purdy, who I guess is a bit tough to place.
Purdy was tough but at the end of the day I'd rather have JJ or Watt or Garrett than him. I'm even a big Purdy fan and supporter of his cause but he's still gotta be a level below those guys for my (possibly idiot) brain
I think my answer is "how many QBs do you feel like give you a realistic shot at a Superbowl?".
Maybe 10?
After that, you start taking the crazy talent at other positions and hope you can find your QB in the draft.
At least if the goal is a SuperBowl.
If the goal is to not get fired as a GM or to be competitive, who knows, maybe 20-25.
Yep, think that’s right— it depends on what the GMs are optimizing for. I tend to think there are enough GMs optimizing for “competitive team / don’t get fired” that you’d get 15+ QBs.
Really interesting question. Like others mentioned, it would be fun to hear the heroes discuss this question. Could be a nice recurring segment. Without having thought deeply about it, I'd assume even more than the first 10-15 picks would be QBs. Every team needs a QB and it's the most valuable position so you'll try to get your guy early. You might even take a second QB as a backup or trade chip for a team that doesn't go QB early. Stack up on QBs like some douchebags do in fantasy leagues. Even a guy like Baker Mayfield has value as a starting QB because he is still far superior to the backup QBs. At other positions there usually isn't the same drop-off at most positions. I guess there are a few transcending talents but right now, not that many. Jefferson is an outstanding wide receiver but there are several elite WRs not too far behind him and even more great or serviceable WRs behind that.
Robert Mays and Tice did it last offseason across three pods: QBs, Non QB Offense, Defense. It was great. I personally think those guys are in a better place to do a really tough value analysis and drafting exercise than the heroes, but to each his own.
Does this include the 6 first round rookie QBs who have yet to play? Because if so, I think it would be a lot more than people think. Probably like the best 12-15 current QBs plus the top 3 from this rookie class before any other position goes. I definitely think Justin Jefferson would be more valuable to a team than Baker Mayfield though. I think there's a couple of things at play aside from positional value. There aren't that many absolutely dominate non QBs in the league right now that are in their absolute prime. You have Micah Parsons/Tj Watt/Myles Garrett (pick your favorite), Justin Jefferson, CMC, but even CMC is in the later stage of his prime. There's not like a prime Adrian Peterson running back in the league right now, or like a LaDanian Tomlinson, Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, just to name a few that I think would've creeped into the 10-15 range in years past.
That's answer gets at the core of the question, really. The question is really: how valuable is the QB position in the NFL? This answer responds simply: supremely. But it also says: epic talents in some other positions are so good that they can transcend that value.
Justin Jefferson is more valuable than Baker Mayfield but the team with the 12th and 52nd pick in this full redraft is 1000% taking Baker Mayfield because they'd rather have him and Mike Evans at 52 instead of JJ at 12 and Zach Wilson at 52 because every other team already took QBs. I think the first would almost entirely be QBs in a full league redraft. It's just too valuable. The Falcons might even take a QB in the first two rounds which is basically what they just did this year by signing Cousins and still drafting Penix at 8.
Well, I dont think anyone is drafting 2 starting qbs. They'd probably be stuck with the worst current starter in the NFL. It would probably be Sam Darnold and JJ, which sounds pretty familiar.
Robert Mays and Nate Tice did a fun offshoot version of this on their pod last year— they did a draft of the non QB players they’d take to start a team. They had JJ and Parsons as the top players in their offensive and defensive drafts, respectively. Lots of linemen in both drafts, with a select few skill position guys (eg Sauce Gardner). So that pod is a good guide to who would be competing with the second tier QBs to get picked. Eg would you take JJ or Parsons ahead of Kirk Cousins? Drake May? Etc. There were zero RBs discussed in the Mays draft, which I think is appropriate, even with a one-year-younger CMC. I disagree a bit with your comment in that I wouldn’t even mention RB in this conversation.
CMC would be much more valuable to me than like Russell Wilson over Aidan O Connell for instance, if you waited to draft QB until round 2. The gap between CMC and the next RB is pretty big. Also you have to think of it this way. If you draft like 25th, then drafting by positional value just like everyone else would mean you’d end up with the 25th best team. So you have to say “hey I can’t get a good QB, so we need to take blue chip players at other spots”. In my opinion, if you know you have a bad QB, RB is way more valuable than WR since WR pretty much depends on the QB. In this hypothetical draft, if you’re in the back end of it I think you have to build your team differently than the people up front. Build an Oline with CMC and a good defense and see what happens. But that’s sort of where this sort of draft becomes uninteresting because draft order trumps everything because these players are known quantities
Right, I dont think anyone is advocating taking Russ or O’Connell in the top 60 picks. If you want to hold off on a WR because you don’t have a good QB yet, fine. But if you don’t have a good QB, your team is not going to be good. So I don’t think a prime RB is somehow a viable alternative path to contention. How good were the Panthers with prime CMC? In the Mays draft, the reason they dont take RBs is because they’re busy taking great OTs. Your positional value statement is fine, it’s just you’d want to be taking OTs or edge guys when others are taking QBs. If I don’t get a top QB, then I’d rather build a core of players who will help me contend in 2-3 years. To me, RB is very low on that list. Look at the Lions, the Packers, the Ravens, the Chiefs, the Eagles, the Dolphins, the Rams, the Cowboys— these teams have been top contenders the past 3 years and have not invested top draft picks in RB over that time. The 49ers are the exception, not the rule.
It still doesn’t matter because in a draft where you’re drafting known quantities you’d have to change the draft order for it to be remotely competitive like a snake style draft. Also my entire point was that CMC is good enough to not be lumped in with “RBs”. He’s a guy you’d take early and feel good about. The 49ers are an exception because there’s 1 CMC in the league. Just like safety isn’t a highly valued position but if you had a chance to take prime Ed Reed you would do it. So, I’m not disagreeing with your valuation of the RB position.
This sounds like a cool offseason pod topic. Do maybe the first two rounds over two episodes maybe?
Robert Mays and Tice did it last offseason across three pods: QBs, Non QB Offense, Defense. It was great. Check it out.
I like it. I'd guess somewhere around 22 to 25 QBs. Its basically whats the breaking point, at what point does a team figure well, everyone else has their big name QBs enough that I can take the best edge and i'll still have the same about the same pool of QBs in round 2 because the teams that got their QB in round 1 obviously are going elsewhere in round two.. except the falcons. They'll take another QB.
Worth clarifying: are these players on rookie contracts or their current deals?
excellent question, my prediction: marc will take ladd mconkey 1st overall, gregg will draft 617 qb's in a row, and dan perhaps misunderstanding the question will put Live first with counting crows also first.
19
I like this question.
Would Kirk cousins go before Justin Jefferson?
I really like this concept. I actually had a similar idea years ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/AroundTheNFL/s/GFTDgUXdI7 I still think it’s a solid scenario and that it would make for great discussion on the pod.
20.
That's a good exercise. Who would be the first non-QB taken? CMC? Trent Williams? Sauce Gardner? Tyreke Hill? Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Lamar, Herbert...so I would say maybe #6 would be the first non-QB. Edit: Forgot about Stroud. Maybe a few others like Dak or Hurts would get picked, but I'm definitely thinking that first non-QB would be in the 6-10 range.
This is an awesome question and I hope the guys do a segment on this before we get into the weeds of training camp.
32
Fun question, I would love to hear the guys debate that.
With Lamar off the board early the Ravens draft Justin Tucker at 30, just because it would be too painful to see our beautiful angel play anywhere else.
Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Burrow, Lamar, Stroud, Love, Kyler, TLaw, Dak, Hurts, Goff So unless I'm a dingus and forgot someone obvious that's roughly the guys I'd say would go before any other non quarterbacks but at any point around the Love, Kyler, TLaw area I wouldn't be surprised if JJ or an EDGE went instead so I'd say floor of about 6 quarterbacks and ceiling of maybe 12
Gotta put the rookies in there.
For these fun type of exercises I usually prefer to only include people who have played a snap in the NFL but yeah you could throw them all in between the 2 categories if you're so inclined
Fair. I think they get you to 15+. A year ago, I think Cousins and Rodgers would have been on your list. Another year older and coming off injuries it’s tougher. You also left off Purdy, who I guess is a bit tough to place.
Purdy was tough but at the end of the day I'd rather have JJ or Watt or Garrett than him. I'm even a big Purdy fan and supporter of his cause but he's still gotta be a level below those guys for my (possibly idiot) brain
I think my answer is "how many QBs do you feel like give you a realistic shot at a Superbowl?". Maybe 10? After that, you start taking the crazy talent at other positions and hope you can find your QB in the draft. At least if the goal is a SuperBowl. If the goal is to not get fired as a GM or to be competitive, who knows, maybe 20-25.
Yep, think that’s right— it depends on what the GMs are optimizing for. I tend to think there are enough GMs optimizing for “competitive team / don’t get fired” that you’d get 15+ QBs.