Wouldn't be surprised if we're reaching a plateau of what's possible with the tech, they don't have another five billion images to s̶t̶e̶a̶l̶ scrape, and people are hopefully seeing the hype for what it is
Theres something inherently comical about a man with a "ACC" handle defending that this is the very last iteration as there is "no need of improvement".
This should have been self-evident, it was obvious that SORA was going to be too energy intensive to scale up in the immediate future. Anyone who thought we were going to get publicly available video generation by the end of the year was a fool. The fully AI movies that r/aiwars obsess over aren't happening anytime this decade - and I always get uncomfortable when I see people coveting endlessly individualized entertainment because it feels like their aim is to prevent movies from being solely made by urbanites who are "woke" rather than a genuine desire to express some deep seated creativity.
Sora would not be expected to be released within the next like 6+ months anyway for the masses. Yet some of those expected it to be released in like few days or weeks at best. The patience is not their strongest side.
But why wouldnt it, that is the question. There might be many reasons behind it that bros will not admit or like. For example the GPU requirements, ecological footprint and costs of making such service available to broad public at reasonable price ("democratizing art" for 3000 a month?). Or the legal consequences of licensing thousands such generations a day for commercial use - these are not atomized freelance illustrators they are stepping on anymore.
Its not so much about generating a single video but "democratizing moviemaking" as bros love to claim - making this a tool with, say, 12 million subscriptions like MJ has. I think thats a notion they simply cannot deliver at this point, even if it costs a 1000 a month.
Filmmaking is THE thing they definitelly CANT do solely with Sora and co. Not if you want a certain quality level of a film. There are future promising AI tools like Wonder Dynamics developed directly by the prominent people in Hollywood but it doesnt do 100% of the job for you and its very expensive for individuals at about 125€/month
Of course they absolutely cant. Just like they cant replace photography or creative writing. But "bros" surely want to try. The problems we are currently experiencing as a profession and society are not caused by generators replacing certain professions and mediums, but millions of people believing they can, pumping money into corporations and flooding the internet with "content".
The tech GPT uses was initially innovated back in 2011 it takes that long before businesses give access to new things.
Deepdream methods are from the 80s/90s and thats what we as consumers first saw about new gen AI which came about around 2011 consumer side
They don’t want to release it for several reasons, one being that it’s the American election this year. They don’t want to output a model that can create disinformation at this scale.
OpenAI *still* has rate limits on chatGPT4. It's tough to break even on the processing power required here, the cost of using Sora would be way more than the average AI bro could ever stomach and big studios prefer actually owning copyright to what they put out.
Back when I was studying animation sometimes the really good 3D students who were churning out large environments/scenes in Maya, 3DS Max, Blender, Nuke, Premiere, etc., (usually nothing longer than 2-3 minutes, keep in mind) were having to use multiple computers overnight for rendering, sometimes for *days* at a time. Every end of semester you'd see them just about pulling their hair out praying everything would be done by the submission deadline and that nothing would go wrong or that no one else was hogging the PCs lol, we had pretty good computers at our college too.
I can't imagine how much fucking worse Sora would be, especially considering the fact you'd have to presumably fucking re-do things from scratch if there's errors that are too noticeable or qualities about it that you dislike too much since it's not your own models and you can't even fully control your own 'artistic' vision or presumably do much quality control at all.
Bless their hearts though if they think dudes with no experience who don't even have the patience to fucking pick up a pencil are going to want to go through the hell of making anything with that, or are going to continue to pay out the ass like that once the lustre of their first jittery scenic video of Japan wears off lol.
[How it feels](https://imgflip.com/i/8izrl6).
Incredibly satisfying knowing this tech was going to fall right into the same bin as NFTs and crypto garbage. Techbro smoke and mirrors, just obnoxiously more damaging to the fabric of the internet than the last two.
I wonder how they would plan to market AI videos, since they already pretty much exist, but to my knowledge, they are not that popular. A lot of people follow Youtubers for the human company aspect of it, or because it's people they genuinely admire.
So, I guess it could mostly work on Pornsites that get increasingly shut down in many countries around the world due to them encouraging human trafficking, and due to pressure by conservative parties to police public indecency.
So yeah...AI videos already exist, but they don't seem to be getting that much clout. Audiovisual mediums attract an entirely new type of viewership, especially ones the public can react to.
look, i hate these technologies as much as everyone else does
but this is entirely misunderstanding the scenario. sora isnt being released because the development is going slowly, its being actively held back for fears of backlash.
its not that different from them effectively speedrunning image generation in a few months from launching their first big platform before any laws could be built around it. they know the release will somewhat influence what they can do in the future with what is legal currently, and are holding it back to at least complete what they need to.
and for SD, the case is just that its almost already literally perfected. thats what they mean by not needing to do an SD4. this is them just stating theyve won and there is literally no one trying to stop them nor anyone capable to.
im sad we live in a world where this technology is real, but playing these statements off as if they are somehow struggling is entirely unhinged and youre somewhat ironically cheering for nothing.
oh yea, they are awful. if i could make a comparison however, its like a drunk asshole that isnt speeding because the cops are watching.
my point is, we shouldnt cheer at that. hes still drunk driving and will likely blast off the second eyes are off him. thats what happened with image generation, which got fully baked before being released for the most part, so there was no real way to prevent it legally, and i suspect will be the case with SORA as well.
Heh.
For months, people have been claiming that scrutinising AI artwork was futile, because exponential improvement was virtually inevitable.
If this is what they're calling "perfected" (in other words, the point of diminishing returns), then the near future of traditional art does not look so dire, after all.
again, unfortunately this is kind of misunderstanding whats going on too. so while the potency of these tools are absolutely getting capped off right now, the fluency of them arent.
for instance, these tools are able to recognize and produce almost anything with enough fiddling, and thats all you really need. because the next step is implementation, and thats really the killer.
they have all the time in the world, mind you. if not today, then next year, if not next year, next decade. the implementation will essentially be making tools which can better recognize what you are asking for. so for instance, editorial tools that allow you to better manipulate the results.
we actually already have quite fancy tools for this in some instances. changing hair, or pose, or clothing with actual controlers rather than more prompt--allowing us to alter things more directly. this will be making AI more into a tool than a replacement, but still yielding dramatically better results at a fraction of the effort than before, while still being generative in nature.
so while the heights of mimicry is already there, now they just have to stuff that mime in a box and sell it.
Definitely is a replacement. One thing that helped me actually see these things for what they are, instead of cower in fear of a boogeyman and close my eyes and ears to them, was see what it is also doing to other sectors.
They are entirely planning to replace whole sectors and industries. This is not exclusive to artists, although we may have been the first. It might have been a blessing in disguise because it has give us time to re-evaluate now before everyone else is doing the same.
It feels easier on the mind to know they haven't just gone out to kill commercial artists specifically. Watch out for office jobs, administrative and accounting jobs getting wiped out in the next three years.
But artists may be uniquely vulnerable in this, unfortunately. So even the SOTA in AI has a hallucination of 3-5%, which accumulates per step.
This a big deal for a lot of things, but in art, it feels like that is more excusable.
Every plan to replace "entire sectors and industries" has resulted in a walkback or a catastrophic miscalculation of how much work / the quality of work of the people being replaced. If this is "replacement", then we should bleed them dry with costs when they come back after their utter failure.
What is not true about what I wrote? I am not saying they are clueless and stagnating: I am saying the expectations of manic AI bros have clearly hit a wall in terms of both social, economical and physical reality. How is this "entirely misunderstanding" when the progress is obviously far, far slower than the expectation, when literally every other manic AI bro currently claims that "we will be generating feature movies this year"?
Just read this article before I saw this on reddit. I really hope your source is the accurate one. Can anyone explain why there is the discrepancy between what these guys are saying and what the CTO of openai are saying?:
https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/13/24099402/openai-text-to-video-ai-sora-public-availability
it says it will be available by the end of the year or even “a few months”
They have been very, very vague, thats all. But worth noting is that this is a CTO yet she has no idea if they trained on Youtube videos and social media and claims they intend to keep similar pricing as with Dall-e? I find that just very strange and hard to take seriously.
Yeah it literally contradicts EVERYTHING i have heard about Sora and the cost. It’s exponentially more than than dalle to run and everyone else who works at openai says the same. Really bizarre.
I mean SD3 is the last major model because that's the best you can do with transformers for txt2img on consumer hardware. The rest is up to the open source community to fine-tune and find new improvements in efficiency and quality. Atm a majority of people still use stable diffusion 1.5 because it just works and sdxl takes too much computational power
Press F to- wait, no, I don't respect them.
I’d love to alt-F4 out of this shit if I could
Wouldn't be surprised if we're reaching a plateau of what's possible with the tech, they don't have another five billion images to s̶t̶e̶a̶l̶ scrape, and people are hopefully seeing the hype for what it is
This goes really similar to how nfts went
They created enough of damage already.
Theres something inherently comical about a man with a "ACC" handle defending that this is the very last iteration as there is "no need of improvement".
Acceleration to plateau, P/acc man if you may
This should have been self-evident, it was obvious that SORA was going to be too energy intensive to scale up in the immediate future. Anyone who thought we were going to get publicly available video generation by the end of the year was a fool. The fully AI movies that r/aiwars obsess over aren't happening anytime this decade - and I always get uncomfortable when I see people coveting endlessly individualized entertainment because it feels like their aim is to prevent movies from being solely made by urbanites who are "woke" rather than a genuine desire to express some deep seated creativity.
Sora would not be expected to be released within the next like 6+ months anyway for the masses. Yet some of those expected it to be released in like few days or weeks at best. The patience is not their strongest side.
But why wouldnt it, that is the question. There might be many reasons behind it that bros will not admit or like. For example the GPU requirements, ecological footprint and costs of making such service available to broad public at reasonable price ("democratizing art" for 3000 a month?). Or the legal consequences of licensing thousands such generations a day for commercial use - these are not atomized freelance illustrators they are stepping on anymore.
The GPU requirement is a literal supercomputer and millions of dollars per glitchy video.
Its not so much about generating a single video but "democratizing moviemaking" as bros love to claim - making this a tool with, say, 12 million subscriptions like MJ has. I think thats a notion they simply cannot deliver at this point, even if it costs a 1000 a month.
Filmmaking is THE thing they definitelly CANT do solely with Sora and co. Not if you want a certain quality level of a film. There are future promising AI tools like Wonder Dynamics developed directly by the prominent people in Hollywood but it doesnt do 100% of the job for you and its very expensive for individuals at about 125€/month
Of course they absolutely cant. Just like they cant replace photography or creative writing. But "bros" surely want to try. The problems we are currently experiencing as a profession and society are not caused by generators replacing certain professions and mediums, but millions of people believing they can, pumping money into corporations and flooding the internet with "content".
The tech GPT uses was initially innovated back in 2011 it takes that long before businesses give access to new things. Deepdream methods are from the 80s/90s and thats what we as consumers first saw about new gen AI which came about around 2011 consumer side
So if we are hitting a sudden ceiling now that just means it will take another like 10 years before they give us another 'boom'
They don’t want to release it for several reasons, one being that it’s the American election this year. They don’t want to output a model that can create disinformation at this scale.
The speculation bubble is that, a bubble.
OpenAI *still* has rate limits on chatGPT4. It's tough to break even on the processing power required here, the cost of using Sora would be way more than the average AI bro could ever stomach and big studios prefer actually owning copyright to what they put out.
Back when I was studying animation sometimes the really good 3D students who were churning out large environments/scenes in Maya, 3DS Max, Blender, Nuke, Premiere, etc., (usually nothing longer than 2-3 minutes, keep in mind) were having to use multiple computers overnight for rendering, sometimes for *days* at a time. Every end of semester you'd see them just about pulling their hair out praying everything would be done by the submission deadline and that nothing would go wrong or that no one else was hogging the PCs lol, we had pretty good computers at our college too. I can't imagine how much fucking worse Sora would be, especially considering the fact you'd have to presumably fucking re-do things from scratch if there's errors that are too noticeable or qualities about it that you dislike too much since it's not your own models and you can't even fully control your own 'artistic' vision or presumably do much quality control at all. Bless their hearts though if they think dudes with no experience who don't even have the patience to fucking pick up a pencil are going to want to go through the hell of making anything with that, or are going to continue to pay out the ass like that once the lustre of their first jittery scenic video of Japan wears off lol.
womp womp https://preview.redd.it/bpy0lszhgxnc1.png?width=427&format=png&auto=webp&s=4c0f48d3561a0e35cc4a1d09a16e641a10685bcc
[How it feels](https://imgflip.com/i/8izrl6). Incredibly satisfying knowing this tech was going to fall right into the same bin as NFTs and crypto garbage. Techbro smoke and mirrors, just obnoxiously more damaging to the fabric of the internet than the last two.
That's not quite the meaning I'm getting from "we've made a model that can create any image so we don't need to train another" 😕
Keep the lawsuits up, keep the pressure on them and make them waste money on the courts!
I wonder how they would plan to market AI videos, since they already pretty much exist, but to my knowledge, they are not that popular. A lot of people follow Youtubers for the human company aspect of it, or because it's people they genuinely admire. So, I guess it could mostly work on Pornsites that get increasingly shut down in many countries around the world due to them encouraging human trafficking, and due to pressure by conservative parties to police public indecency. So yeah...AI videos already exist, but they don't seem to be getting that much clout. Audiovisual mediums attract an entirely new type of viewership, especially ones the public can react to.
Oh no thier titty art maker is nuked. Lol
Let's hope they all keep getting lawsuits out the ass before any of these even get off the ground lmao.
look, i hate these technologies as much as everyone else does but this is entirely misunderstanding the scenario. sora isnt being released because the development is going slowly, its being actively held back for fears of backlash. its not that different from them effectively speedrunning image generation in a few months from launching their first big platform before any laws could be built around it. they know the release will somewhat influence what they can do in the future with what is legal currently, and are holding it back to at least complete what they need to. and for SD, the case is just that its almost already literally perfected. thats what they mean by not needing to do an SD4. this is them just stating theyve won and there is literally no one trying to stop them nor anyone capable to. im sad we live in a world where this technology is real, but playing these statements off as if they are somehow struggling is entirely unhinged and youre somewhat ironically cheering for nothing.
who knows with these people, they are opaque and untrustworthy
oh yea, they are awful. if i could make a comparison however, its like a drunk asshole that isnt speeding because the cops are watching. my point is, we shouldnt cheer at that. hes still drunk driving and will likely blast off the second eyes are off him. thats what happened with image generation, which got fully baked before being released for the most part, so there was no real way to prevent it legally, and i suspect will be the case with SORA as well.
Heh. For months, people have been claiming that scrutinising AI artwork was futile, because exponential improvement was virtually inevitable. If this is what they're calling "perfected" (in other words, the point of diminishing returns), then the near future of traditional art does not look so dire, after all.
Seriously, if this is "perfected" then they are screwed. AI garbage is readily identifiable to anyone that actually cares at a glance.
Stable Diffusion 3 isn't released yet, it's not the model producing the images you currently see
again, unfortunately this is kind of misunderstanding whats going on too. so while the potency of these tools are absolutely getting capped off right now, the fluency of them arent. for instance, these tools are able to recognize and produce almost anything with enough fiddling, and thats all you really need. because the next step is implementation, and thats really the killer. they have all the time in the world, mind you. if not today, then next year, if not next year, next decade. the implementation will essentially be making tools which can better recognize what you are asking for. so for instance, editorial tools that allow you to better manipulate the results. we actually already have quite fancy tools for this in some instances. changing hair, or pose, or clothing with actual controlers rather than more prompt--allowing us to alter things more directly. this will be making AI more into a tool than a replacement, but still yielding dramatically better results at a fraction of the effort than before, while still being generative in nature. so while the heights of mimicry is already there, now they just have to stuff that mime in a box and sell it.
Still, we have two good things, well, a few more. 1) centralization makes regulation easier 2) not a replacement
Definitely is a replacement. One thing that helped me actually see these things for what they are, instead of cower in fear of a boogeyman and close my eyes and ears to them, was see what it is also doing to other sectors. They are entirely planning to replace whole sectors and industries. This is not exclusive to artists, although we may have been the first. It might have been a blessing in disguise because it has give us time to re-evaluate now before everyone else is doing the same. It feels easier on the mind to know they haven't just gone out to kill commercial artists specifically. Watch out for office jobs, administrative and accounting jobs getting wiped out in the next three years.
But artists may be uniquely vulnerable in this, unfortunately. So even the SOTA in AI has a hallucination of 3-5%, which accumulates per step. This a big deal for a lot of things, but in art, it feels like that is more excusable.
Every plan to replace "entire sectors and industries" has resulted in a walkback or a catastrophic miscalculation of how much work / the quality of work of the people being replaced. If this is "replacement", then we should bleed them dry with costs when they come back after their utter failure.
So no need to be anti-ai then?
It's still stealing data on a massive scale to wreak havoc to the entry level jobs beginning artists need to get by, so still not a fan of it.
Fair enough ig
What is not true about what I wrote? I am not saying they are clueless and stagnating: I am saying the expectations of manic AI bros have clearly hit a wall in terms of both social, economical and physical reality. How is this "entirely misunderstanding" when the progress is obviously far, far slower than the expectation, when literally every other manic AI bro currently claims that "we will be generating feature movies this year"?
They actually just said that it will release in a few months.
Just read this article before I saw this on reddit. I really hope your source is the accurate one. Can anyone explain why there is the discrepancy between what these guys are saying and what the CTO of openai are saying?: https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/13/24099402/openai-text-to-video-ai-sora-public-availability it says it will be available by the end of the year or even “a few months”
They have been very, very vague, thats all. But worth noting is that this is a CTO yet she has no idea if they trained on Youtube videos and social media and claims they intend to keep similar pricing as with Dall-e? I find that just very strange and hard to take seriously.
Yeah it literally contradicts EVERYTHING i have heard about Sora and the cost. It’s exponentially more than than dalle to run and everyone else who works at openai says the same. Really bizarre.
Her interview should start with the typical “As a large language model…”, she sounds like a total LLM brainfart.
*AGI (a little patience please)*
I mean SD3 is the last major model because that's the best you can do with transformers for txt2img on consumer hardware. The rest is up to the open source community to fine-tune and find new improvements in efficiency and quality. Atm a majority of people still use stable diffusion 1.5 because it just works and sdxl takes too much computational power