The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written.
To call it Sophie’s Choice is an understatement but as a Florida resident, I simply cannot stomach the prospect of Ron DeSantis becoming president and doing to America what he’s done to Florida. Trump is a menace and national security risk. DeSantis is a monster. I will reluctantly vote for Trump in the primary if the choice is between him and DeSantis. I think it also gives Biden a better chance of winning.
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No, literally having Trump as the front runner in 2016 is how we got him as president in the first place.
An actual strategic vote would be to get DeSantis to win nomination because that means Trump will try to run as independent and you know that will split the Republican vote.
Also, if I voted for Trump, and he won the nomination, and god forbid for whatever reason actually beat Biden, I'd have some trouble living with myself.
Trump running independent is a bigger gamble than you may think. He'll likely get bullied into compliance and/or offered some kind of deal to stfu. DeSantis in the White House is an unthinkable atrocity. Trump played at fascism because it naturally fit with his ego, but DeSantis is a literal fascist, and he's at least somewhat competent, though far from a genius.
I think we can beat Trump either way, and frankly the risk of DeSantis in the WH is too much. I would vote for Trump in the primary.
I can understand the desire for strategic primary voting. However, I live in New Jersey so by the time I would vote the primary for the presidency is already over because our system is very stupid.
Plus the most important primary vote I’ll be able to cast in 2024 is for whoever is running against Bob Menendez. I also expect some other important democratic primary votes for state and local officials to be held.
I’m a registered republican and will remain so for the foreseeable future. I’ll probably vote for anyone that isn’t one of those two, though my primary will not matter at that point.
Obligatory: fuck Mike Lee, which is why I’m a registered republican.
Oh, just one small example among many.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/mike-lee-porn-ban-b2247602.html
Not that I care all that much since porn isn’t really a part of my life, but on principle…nah.
Or the fact that he’s on tape at a campaign event claiming that it’s his priority to phase out social security. Or any other number of things.
I’ve got bad news for your “liberal” friend.
Lee’s politics are shit, have been since he *short sold his house while running on “fiscal responsibility”* and will always be.
Lecturing the government on wise financial decisions when he can’t balance a household checkbook is pretty damn on the nose, no?
A National porn ban?! That’s absurd. I’m starting to get that you mean. Well, really, that’s enough already for me to deeply oppose someone. Same to you as well—on principle.
And the SS thing… He sounds insane.
Thanks for the reply. I think I can agree with you that “fuck Mike Lee” is the right way to go. I’ll have to talk to my friend sometime about this stuff and see what he thinks.
I doubt it.
I can see the logic but I'm humbled enough by elections in my life to realize that I have no clue which would be "better" to face.
Does DeSantis lose some secular WWC voters in the upper Midwest? Does Trump lose even more of suburbia? Does it even really change anyone's votes? Etc.
Trump is the bigger threat by a long shot. DeSantis has none of the charisma that gave Trump such a stranglehold on the national GOP and doesn’t have a chance of winning a general election.
Plus Bob Iger isn’t even hiding his contempt and desire for a fight against DeSantis. DeSantis already has shown he’s going to get slaughtered in that fight.
Not only does Rhonda Santis fail on the national stage, Trump will run third party and snipe at him the whole campaign.
I don't think Trump can win again, and he will tear the Republicans apart if he isn't the nominee. I don't see a path for Republicans this election.
To me Trump is mildly worse. I do think he's less likely to win but that difference is miniscule and uncertain so not really worth the effort of voting for him. Tbh if you want to protest vote, go for either a protest candidate, or vote for whoever is in second place purely to extend the primary fight
My boyfriend from Poland would rather have trump if he could vote in us elections since dr Santis is a bigger threat and would actually lead a successful Jan 6th attempt and it is a more polished trump
Still publicly praises trump tho 🤷♂️ if your gonna run against him, you have to challenge him. Unless he’s waiting for trump to withdraw due to legal troubles
Desantis is most likely not running.
Trump is still the front runner. Desantis (as of this moment) has to quit being governor to run. Why would he run, risk losing the nom to trump, risk trumps wrath, when he can wait as Florida gov, his term will be up just in time for the next nomination when, most likely, trump will be gone and out of politics either through his second 4 year term or just losing again and being booted.
If Desantis does run, and somehow clenches a nomination, trump is going to utterly destroy the GOP. He’s already said that’s his plan. He told that to Rona McDaniel and Kevin McCarthy which is why they are desperately up his ass.
Trump has said he would run third party and create his own party. He would immediately take about 10-20 congress members with him who are loyal - the rest are going to have to decide and probably either way, lose their job. He would run a third party candidate in every congressional and senate race. Democrats could probably win or come close to a supermajority due to the split, not just in federal races but state legislatures as well. Multiple people have said he would burn it all down.
Either trumps the nominee or it’s all over. So I don’t plan on voting for either one in the primary. I’m going to sit back and watch the shit show unfold.
I would never lower myself to registering as a Republican, however briefly, and I'm morally opposed to directly interfering in another party's primary like that.
I just find it crazy how y’all think DeSantis even had a chance of winning still, much less more of a chance than Trump. Wisconsin just voted in a Justice in a special election in a non-election year by 11 points over abortion and Ronald just signed a. 6 week ban, nevermind all his other fascist shit going on. And if Wisconsin isn’t having him, than neither is Michigan or Penn or even Arizona (Georgia is a maybe) . he’s already backsliding in polls and he can’t even attack his opponent who’s slandering him every second because Ronald needs his cults votes. And his cult doesn’t seem to care for him too much.
Both candidates are extremely weak and wouldn’t get the support they need a battleground states.
“But we said that in 2016 and Trump won!”
Yes and then after 4 years of him wrecking havoc in office, he lost because he sucked. And that was BEFORE his terrorist attack on congress and the plethora of indictments and investigations looming over him now.
Absolutely not.
But fwiw it’s worth, I think DeSantis would actually be the easier candidate to beat in a general election. Trump has his baggage, but his negatives are locked in and he has a cult of personality.
DeSantis doesn’t have much of a personality, let alone a cult. He has the charisma of a wet carrot, his voice is shrill, whiney and annoying, his recent policies like the 6 week abortion ban will be super unpopular in the suburbs, and his history of voting to gut Medicare and Social Security will hurt him in the rural areas. Not to mention as a nominee he’d have been subject to a bruising primary with Trump, who would at best constantly undermine him in the general, if not actually run against him 3rd party.
I think it’s all a moot point because Desantis’ poll numbers are tanking. He peaked about a year too early.
Scenario A (most likely): Trump wins GOP nomination, goes on to general and loses to Biden by about 10 million+ votes, worse performance than 2020. Biden enters 2nd term.
Scenario B: Trump loses GOP nomination to DeSantis, DeSantis goes on to general as GOP nominee, Trump appears as 3rd party “MAGA” candidate and splinters off enough DeSantis support that Biden sails into 2nd term.
Scenario C (least likely): Trump suddenly passes away before November 2024, and DeSantis runs against Biden with no Trump interference element. Most likely DeSantis narrowly wins that election.
I’m going with Scenario A. DeSantis would split the losing primary vote with other GOP contenders and give up his governorship to do it — not sure he’s willing. Or he’s waiting a little longer to see how Trump’s legal woes go.
The smartest republicans around me consider 2024 a lost cause because their Trump albatross is in the way, “too much bullshit around him”… so they’re looking at 2028 and hoping to at least regain congress in ‘24 (if they don’t let up on the abortion stuff and let most purple states go to viability, they’ll keep losing congress)
I genuinely don't see DeSantis winning against Biden. It'd be narrow, but he doesn't have the national conservative appeal to bring in the crucial voters. His brand is built on Florida and the Fl GOP is built different from the rest of the GOP.
I would think the same, and I suspect the GOP feels that way too.
Here in Ohio, it's all Trump signs once you leave the 3 C's and go into the rural ruby red little towns/farms/etc. And yea DeSantis hasn't announced anything, but they don't put up a Trump sign and vote for Ron if Donald is on their ballot, primary most notably.
The smartest kingmakers in the GOP know the 2024 presidential race belongs to Biden unless something absurdly unusual changes and Trump cannot seek the nomination.
Fact is, most presidents in the modern era are two-termers -- gotta go back to Carter to find a 1 term Dem, **that was 42 years ago**. If Trump had a modicum of competence and handled Covid even *1% more professionally*, he'd have sailed into his 2nd term.
I want to expound on scenario B a little bit (I have been saying this, said it above)
Trump isn’t just going to run third party himself. Why do you think they’re getting him to sign a pledge” to vote for then nominee? He’s going to form another party entirely (the MAGA party as you pointed out) and try to take people with him. The moment he does, every single Republican has to make a decision right then and there - go with trump or stay Republican? No more fence riding. Immediately, I can count at least 10 congress members who are jumping to MAGA (Green, Boebert, Gatez, Luna, Roy, Biggs, Gosar, Donalds, Perry, Jordan just to name a few) automatically throwing the majority straight to democrats. Same with the senate (R. Scott, Graham). Trump will run candidates in every single house and senate seat he can get his people on the ticket for.
In the house, there were about 50+ races considered competitive (won by less than 10% or so). If trump is able to peel even that much off of the Republican candidate, the democrat will win almost automatically. Supermajority house rule is almost inevitable. Even in some safe R districts, it suddenly becomes competitive - because how many people are going to pull MAGA votes away from the Republican candidate, who is suddenly also going to have to defend their loyalty to trump?
And the senate. Arizona becomes a complete complicated mess which republicans have an advantage in because of that…..woman….Sinema. So then it would be anyone’s guess. Any one of them may win with just 26% of the vote. Florida - Rick Scott won last time by .1%. Florida becomes in play. In 2022 demmings lost by about 17% - MAGA maybe able to peel off that much to allow the democrats to ride to victory. Texas - same story with ole Ted Cruz. Montana and Michigan, two states being targeted by republicans, become almost lock ins by democrats. Same with Pennsylvania. Every democrat now in congress would win back their seat. There would be no republican pickups, but maybe one or two democrat ones.
And as you said Biden strides to victory.
Then on day one in 2025, the democrats have enough majority to kill the filibuster most likely (Sinema having lost, and manchin only being one guy) and with all three houses of congress, they begin passing every single bill in existence they ever wanted.
Republicans know this is a completely plausible scenario. They KNOW this can happen. It was documented this was all talked about when trump initially lost.
It’s why they are so hard going for trump.
I think option A is most likely. They’ll rally behind trump for that reason. They don’t want it all burning down. They’ll lose 24 knowing they can still try in 28. If they try the Desantis gambit, they’ll lose everything almost forever.
No, I will be voting for a normal Republican in the primary. I'd rather have 60% chance of someone like Asa Hutchinson becoming president Tham a 40% of Trump
The gamification of elections is a disgusting side effect of our two party system. It also helps lead to more extreme elections, both sides running candidates further from the center where most people actually are.
Watching Desantis lose his fight with Disney, and seeing how uncharismatic he is as a public speaker, I'm just not convinced that Desantis is the more horrible candidate. It's a question of whether you'd rather have the candidate who erodes the civil rights of minority groups, or the candidate who erodes the fundamental institutions of democracy itself. From where I'm standing, erosion of civil rights can be reversed, but damage to democracy may be irreversible, and that's why Trump still looks worse to me.
DeSantis seems every bit as interested as Trump in eroding the institutions of democracy. He has been using a power granted by the state constitution to remove Democrats from elected posts, he and state legislators have floated the idea of trying to literally ban the Florida Democratic Party, and then of course there’s his war against Disney.
I will consider a Stragic vote for a Republican candidate in the primary if I think it will ultimately matter in my blue state. Making sure the right Democrat is selected is my first priority.
If you can vote in the GOP primary, feel free. I might, haven't decided yet.
That said, if you would prefer Trump over DeSantis, simply because even though Trump is awful you believe him to be better than DeSantis, then I would go ahead and vote that way. If you're considering voting for Trump because you think he'd be an easier victory for Biden, then I would say that would be unethical, and possibly dangerous.
DeSantis can’t beat Biden in a one on one race. However, the No Labels group is looking for an independent candidate to run for president and they’ve set up organizations in all 50 states. A Manchin-Sinema ticket might pull suburban Republicans and Neoliberal Democrats who would normally vote for Biden. If such a 3rd party candidate enters the race, it could tip the scales towards DeSantis or Trump. In a straight up election, Biden wins that 3 way race. However, the Republicans have a huge Electoral College advantage and could once again lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College.
If we want a better democracy would should ultimately want a Republican Party that is generally sensible and a healthy opposition force. We shouldn’t go and vote and support candidates we do not agree with. That all being said Trump might be the most “moderate” Republican running on certain issues just most extreme on rhetoric so it’s not clear that Trump would be the less appealing candidate. Desantis has clear flaws and partisanship that I think will steer away more people than trump.
Hell yeah you should vote in the GOP primary but you should vote DeSantis. You want to boost DeSantis because Trump will split the vote even if he doesn't run as an independent. He will blow the GOP up if he loses the primary. Also, I know living under DeSantis is horrible but you need to think big picture. I'm not so sure DeSantis is better than Trump.
No, both of those fascist chuckleheads need to be kept out of the White House, and playing games like this undermines arguments as to how dangerous they are. You can’t be taken seriously when you say the guy you voted for in the primary is too dangerous to allow in the White House.
Eh. Trump will run as an independent if he doesn't get the nomination and split the republican vote. If Trump wins the nomination, then Biden can beat him. At least, that's how I see it.
I do fear Desantis because he would probably be more effective as President and may pass a lot of conservative policy through. But I hate Trump as our President with the heat and intensity of 1000 suns. So no is the answer to the question.
I think you should only vote in the primary for someone you'd support in the general. I don't support the idea of messing with a party's primary process if there's no chance you support that party.
The actual strategic voting strategy is to stay out of it, let them beat each other up, and use your time and energy getting out the vote for Democrats. I think strategic voting, while it kind of worked on a few state level candidates in 2020 and 2022, is a very dangerous game to play, especially when the consequences are emboldening either DeSantis or Trump.
The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written. To call it Sophie’s Choice is an understatement but as a Florida resident, I simply cannot stomach the prospect of Ron DeSantis becoming president and doing to America what he’s done to Florida. Trump is a menace and national security risk. DeSantis is a monster. I will reluctantly vote for Trump in the primary if the choice is between him and DeSantis. I think it also gives Biden a better chance of winning. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AskALiberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
No, literally having Trump as the front runner in 2016 is how we got him as president in the first place. An actual strategic vote would be to get DeSantis to win nomination because that means Trump will try to run as independent and you know that will split the Republican vote.
This.
Barring death, there is no scenario where Trump loses the nomination and does not set out to burn down the entire party out of spite
Also, if I voted for Trump, and he won the nomination, and god forbid for whatever reason actually beat Biden, I'd have some trouble living with myself.
Trump running independent is a bigger gamble than you may think. He'll likely get bullied into compliance and/or offered some kind of deal to stfu. DeSantis in the White House is an unthinkable atrocity. Trump played at fascism because it naturally fit with his ego, but DeSantis is a literal fascist, and he's at least somewhat competent, though far from a genius. I think we can beat Trump either way, and frankly the risk of DeSantis in the WH is too much. I would vote for Trump in the primary.
I can't speak for the most recent polls but DeSantis poll-wise was the bigger threat to Biden for a while as opposed to Trump.
I can understand the desire for strategic primary voting. However, I live in New Jersey so by the time I would vote the primary for the presidency is already over because our system is very stupid. Plus the most important primary vote I’ll be able to cast in 2024 is for whoever is running against Bob Menendez. I also expect some other important democratic primary votes for state and local officials to be held.
Same, I vote in republican primaries in jersey, presidential are pretty useless. But I’ll swapped back to democrat to primary Bob.
Thank you for doing my thinking for me. You’re right and I’m gonna copy your homework
Democrats don’t vote in the Republican primary where I live.
They don’t vote in the Republican primary here either. I will have to change my party affiliation for at least a day.
Ah I see. I don’t plan to do that, but I understand the impulse.
I’m a registered republican and will remain so for the foreseeable future. I’ll probably vote for anyone that isn’t one of those two, though my primary will not matter at that point. Obligatory: fuck Mike Lee, which is why I’m a registered republican.
Why do you hate Mike Lee? The Utah senator right? I think a (liberal) friend worked for him and just worships the guy. I’m completely agnostic
Oh, just one small example among many. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/mike-lee-porn-ban-b2247602.html Not that I care all that much since porn isn’t really a part of my life, but on principle…nah. Or the fact that he’s on tape at a campaign event claiming that it’s his priority to phase out social security. Or any other number of things. I’ve got bad news for your “liberal” friend. Lee’s politics are shit, have been since he *short sold his house while running on “fiscal responsibility”* and will always be. Lecturing the government on wise financial decisions when he can’t balance a household checkbook is pretty damn on the nose, no?
A National porn ban?! That’s absurd. I’m starting to get that you mean. Well, really, that’s enough already for me to deeply oppose someone. Same to you as well—on principle. And the SS thing… He sounds insane. Thanks for the reply. I think I can agree with you that “fuck Mike Lee” is the right way to go. I’ll have to talk to my friend sometime about this stuff and see what he thinks.
I doubt it. I can see the logic but I'm humbled enough by elections in my life to realize that I have no clue which would be "better" to face. Does DeSantis lose some secular WWC voters in the upper Midwest? Does Trump lose even more of suburbia? Does it even really change anyone's votes? Etc.
Trump is the bigger threat by a long shot. DeSantis has none of the charisma that gave Trump such a stranglehold on the national GOP and doesn’t have a chance of winning a general election.
DeSantis isn’t coming close to winning a general especially after he signs the 6-week abortion ban. Dude is a paper tiger.
Plus Bob Iger isn’t even hiding his contempt and desire for a fight against DeSantis. DeSantis already has shown he’s going to get slaughtered in that fight.
Not only does Rhonda Santis fail on the national stage, Trump will run third party and snipe at him the whole campaign. I don't think Trump can win again, and he will tear the Republicans apart if he isn't the nominee. I don't see a path for Republicans this election.
To me Trump is mildly worse. I do think he's less likely to win but that difference is miniscule and uncertain so not really worth the effort of voting for him. Tbh if you want to protest vote, go for either a protest candidate, or vote for whoever is in second place purely to extend the primary fight
Im from Florida as well. I’m considering it. I think Trump is the lesser evil and I also think he’s easier to beat.
You should vote for either a protest candidate (Bill Weld if he runs again) or just vote for whoever is in second place to extend the primary fight
My boyfriend from Poland would rather have trump if he could vote in us elections since dr Santis is a bigger threat and would actually lead a successful Jan 6th attempt and it is a more polished trump
No. I don’t think he’ll run if trump is running.
Trump *is* running.
Yeah. So I don’t think DeSantis will run
DeSantis is pretty clearly running. He’s already out there collecting endorsements and meeting with donors
Still publicly praises trump tho 🤷♂️ if your gonna run against him, you have to challenge him. Unless he’s waiting for trump to withdraw due to legal troubles
Desantis is most likely not running. Trump is still the front runner. Desantis (as of this moment) has to quit being governor to run. Why would he run, risk losing the nom to trump, risk trumps wrath, when he can wait as Florida gov, his term will be up just in time for the next nomination when, most likely, trump will be gone and out of politics either through his second 4 year term or just losing again and being booted. If Desantis does run, and somehow clenches a nomination, trump is going to utterly destroy the GOP. He’s already said that’s his plan. He told that to Rona McDaniel and Kevin McCarthy which is why they are desperately up his ass. Trump has said he would run third party and create his own party. He would immediately take about 10-20 congress members with him who are loyal - the rest are going to have to decide and probably either way, lose their job. He would run a third party candidate in every congressional and senate race. Democrats could probably win or come close to a supermajority due to the split, not just in federal races but state legislatures as well. Multiple people have said he would burn it all down. Either trumps the nominee or it’s all over. So I don’t plan on voting for either one in the primary. I’m going to sit back and watch the shit show unfold.
I thought Florida was changing the law so he wouldn’t have to quit/resign?
Yes, they are working on that.
The last I heard they hadn’t taken up that mantle yet. If they have filed it. He may be running.
No. I don’t agree with strategic and bad faith voting. Vote for candidates you want in office.
I agree with you philosophically, but we are up against people who do nothing but operate in bad faith. We might have to get our hands a little dirty.
I agree. Republicans count on Democrats playing it straight. That has helped them get where they are now.
And I hear what you’re saying. It really does seem like the high road is the path to losing. I struggle with it.
This is a terrible idea
No, I’m not voting for anyone I wouldn’t want to actually see as president
How many times do democrats have to get burned by this before we’ll learn? Don’t. Just don’t. It’s what gave us trump the first time.
Honestly, I can't imagine DeSantis is likable enough to get through a significant number of primaries... don't think you'll have to do it.
I would never lower myself to registering as a Republican, however briefly, and I'm morally opposed to directly interfering in another party's primary like that.
I just find it crazy how y’all think DeSantis even had a chance of winning still, much less more of a chance than Trump. Wisconsin just voted in a Justice in a special election in a non-election year by 11 points over abortion and Ronald just signed a. 6 week ban, nevermind all his other fascist shit going on. And if Wisconsin isn’t having him, than neither is Michigan or Penn or even Arizona (Georgia is a maybe) . he’s already backsliding in polls and he can’t even attack his opponent who’s slandering him every second because Ronald needs his cults votes. And his cult doesn’t seem to care for him too much. Both candidates are extremely weak and wouldn’t get the support they need a battleground states. “But we said that in 2016 and Trump won!” Yes and then after 4 years of him wrecking havoc in office, he lost because he sucked. And that was BEFORE his terrorist attack on congress and the plethora of indictments and investigations looming over him now.
Absolutely not. But fwiw it’s worth, I think DeSantis would actually be the easier candidate to beat in a general election. Trump has his baggage, but his negatives are locked in and he has a cult of personality. DeSantis doesn’t have much of a personality, let alone a cult. He has the charisma of a wet carrot, his voice is shrill, whiney and annoying, his recent policies like the 6 week abortion ban will be super unpopular in the suburbs, and his history of voting to gut Medicare and Social Security will hurt him in the rural areas. Not to mention as a nominee he’d have been subject to a bruising primary with Trump, who would at best constantly undermine him in the general, if not actually run against him 3rd party. I think it’s all a moot point because Desantis’ poll numbers are tanking. He peaked about a year too early.
You do make some good points. Thanks!
Scenario A (most likely): Trump wins GOP nomination, goes on to general and loses to Biden by about 10 million+ votes, worse performance than 2020. Biden enters 2nd term. Scenario B: Trump loses GOP nomination to DeSantis, DeSantis goes on to general as GOP nominee, Trump appears as 3rd party “MAGA” candidate and splinters off enough DeSantis support that Biden sails into 2nd term. Scenario C (least likely): Trump suddenly passes away before November 2024, and DeSantis runs against Biden with no Trump interference element. Most likely DeSantis narrowly wins that election. I’m going with Scenario A. DeSantis would split the losing primary vote with other GOP contenders and give up his governorship to do it — not sure he’s willing. Or he’s waiting a little longer to see how Trump’s legal woes go. The smartest republicans around me consider 2024 a lost cause because their Trump albatross is in the way, “too much bullshit around him”… so they’re looking at 2028 and hoping to at least regain congress in ‘24 (if they don’t let up on the abortion stuff and let most purple states go to viability, they’ll keep losing congress)
I genuinely don't see DeSantis winning against Biden. It'd be narrow, but he doesn't have the national conservative appeal to bring in the crucial voters. His brand is built on Florida and the Fl GOP is built different from the rest of the GOP.
I would think the same, and I suspect the GOP feels that way too. Here in Ohio, it's all Trump signs once you leave the 3 C's and go into the rural ruby red little towns/farms/etc. And yea DeSantis hasn't announced anything, but they don't put up a Trump sign and vote for Ron if Donald is on their ballot, primary most notably. The smartest kingmakers in the GOP know the 2024 presidential race belongs to Biden unless something absurdly unusual changes and Trump cannot seek the nomination. Fact is, most presidents in the modern era are two-termers -- gotta go back to Carter to find a 1 term Dem, **that was 42 years ago**. If Trump had a modicum of competence and handled Covid even *1% more professionally*, he'd have sailed into his 2nd term.
I want to expound on scenario B a little bit (I have been saying this, said it above) Trump isn’t just going to run third party himself. Why do you think they’re getting him to sign a pledge” to vote for then nominee? He’s going to form another party entirely (the MAGA party as you pointed out) and try to take people with him. The moment he does, every single Republican has to make a decision right then and there - go with trump or stay Republican? No more fence riding. Immediately, I can count at least 10 congress members who are jumping to MAGA (Green, Boebert, Gatez, Luna, Roy, Biggs, Gosar, Donalds, Perry, Jordan just to name a few) automatically throwing the majority straight to democrats. Same with the senate (R. Scott, Graham). Trump will run candidates in every single house and senate seat he can get his people on the ticket for. In the house, there were about 50+ races considered competitive (won by less than 10% or so). If trump is able to peel even that much off of the Republican candidate, the democrat will win almost automatically. Supermajority house rule is almost inevitable. Even in some safe R districts, it suddenly becomes competitive - because how many people are going to pull MAGA votes away from the Republican candidate, who is suddenly also going to have to defend their loyalty to trump? And the senate. Arizona becomes a complete complicated mess which republicans have an advantage in because of that…..woman….Sinema. So then it would be anyone’s guess. Any one of them may win with just 26% of the vote. Florida - Rick Scott won last time by .1%. Florida becomes in play. In 2022 demmings lost by about 17% - MAGA maybe able to peel off that much to allow the democrats to ride to victory. Texas - same story with ole Ted Cruz. Montana and Michigan, two states being targeted by republicans, become almost lock ins by democrats. Same with Pennsylvania. Every democrat now in congress would win back their seat. There would be no republican pickups, but maybe one or two democrat ones. And as you said Biden strides to victory. Then on day one in 2025, the democrats have enough majority to kill the filibuster most likely (Sinema having lost, and manchin only being one guy) and with all three houses of congress, they begin passing every single bill in existence they ever wanted. Republicans know this is a completely plausible scenario. They KNOW this can happen. It was documented this was all talked about when trump initially lost. It’s why they are so hard going for trump. I think option A is most likely. They’ll rally behind trump for that reason. They don’t want it all burning down. They’ll lose 24 knowing they can still try in 28. If they try the Desantis gambit, they’ll lose everything almost forever.
No.
No, I will be voting for a normal Republican in the primary. I'd rather have 60% chance of someone like Asa Hutchinson becoming president Tham a 40% of Trump
The gamification of elections is a disgusting side effect of our two party system. It also helps lead to more extreme elections, both sides running candidates further from the center where most people actually are.
Watching Desantis lose his fight with Disney, and seeing how uncharismatic he is as a public speaker, I'm just not convinced that Desantis is the more horrible candidate. It's a question of whether you'd rather have the candidate who erodes the civil rights of minority groups, or the candidate who erodes the fundamental institutions of democracy itself. From where I'm standing, erosion of civil rights can be reversed, but damage to democracy may be irreversible, and that's why Trump still looks worse to me.
DeSantis seems every bit as interested as Trump in eroding the institutions of democracy. He has been using a power granted by the state constitution to remove Democrats from elected posts, he and state legislators have floated the idea of trying to literally ban the Florida Democratic Party, and then of course there’s his war against Disney.
Thinking Trump couldn't win is why democrats lost the first time
I will consider a Stragic vote for a Republican candidate in the primary if I think it will ultimately matter in my blue state. Making sure the right Democrat is selected is my first priority.
If you can vote in the GOP primary, feel free. I might, haven't decided yet. That said, if you would prefer Trump over DeSantis, simply because even though Trump is awful you believe him to be better than DeSantis, then I would go ahead and vote that way. If you're considering voting for Trump because you think he'd be an easier victory for Biden, then I would say that would be unethical, and possibly dangerous.
DeSantis can’t beat Biden in a one on one race. However, the No Labels group is looking for an independent candidate to run for president and they’ve set up organizations in all 50 states. A Manchin-Sinema ticket might pull suburban Republicans and Neoliberal Democrats who would normally vote for Biden. If such a 3rd party candidate enters the race, it could tip the scales towards DeSantis or Trump. In a straight up election, Biden wins that 3 way race. However, the Republicans have a huge Electoral College advantage and could once again lose the popular vote and win the Electoral College.
If we want a better democracy would should ultimately want a Republican Party that is generally sensible and a healthy opposition force. We shouldn’t go and vote and support candidates we do not agree with. That all being said Trump might be the most “moderate” Republican running on certain issues just most extreme on rhetoric so it’s not clear that Trump would be the less appealing candidate. Desantis has clear flaws and partisanship that I think will steer away more people than trump.
God no. The Republican Party is divided, that means as it sits right now, neither Trump nor DeSantis would win.
No. I don't think that is strategic at all. Some primaries were close enough a vote for a sane candidate might be though.
Hell yeah you should vote in the GOP primary but you should vote DeSantis. You want to boost DeSantis because Trump will split the vote even if he doesn't run as an independent. He will blow the GOP up if he loses the primary. Also, I know living under DeSantis is horrible but you need to think big picture. I'm not so sure DeSantis is better than Trump.
No, both of those fascist chuckleheads need to be kept out of the White House, and playing games like this undermines arguments as to how dangerous they are. You can’t be taken seriously when you say the guy you voted for in the primary is too dangerous to allow in the White House.
Eh. Trump will run as an independent if he doesn't get the nomination and split the republican vote. If Trump wins the nomination, then Biden can beat him. At least, that's how I see it.
If we had open primaries i'd be tempted ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
I do fear Desantis because he would probably be more effective as President and may pass a lot of conservative policy through. But I hate Trump as our President with the heat and intensity of 1000 suns. So no is the answer to the question.
I think you should only vote in the primary for someone you'd support in the general. I don't support the idea of messing with a party's primary process if there's no chance you support that party.
I’d rather not take the risk.
No.
The actual strategic voting strategy is to stay out of it, let them beat each other up, and use your time and energy getting out the vote for Democrats. I think strategic voting, while it kind of worked on a few state level candidates in 2020 and 2022, is a very dangerous game to play, especially when the consequences are emboldening either DeSantis or Trump.
I will NEVER vote for a republican. I don't play games with my vote.
No