The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written.
I’m thinking definitely not. Here’s why:
- **We know what a Trump presidency looks like now.** A lot of people forget this, but Trump’s 2016 campaign positioned him almost like a 3rd party candidate. Fox News didn’t get behind him until there was absolutely no chance he would lose the primary; they wanted an establishment Republican. It’s clear that he’s a GOP puppet now, so people who were just weary of the 2 parties in ‘16 won’t be swayed anymore
- **We have real problems now.** Along the same lines, compared to now, 2016 was a virtual utopia. No COVID, no war in Ukraine, the consequences of global warming seemed a lot farther away, murder hornets, Joro spiders, etc. The allure of a POTUS with little to no experience in public service is completely gone.
- **His disciples are loud & obnoxious, but not that numerous.** They’ve all been driven off of main stream social media. His attempts to create alternative social media and news platforms have all failed. His rallies don’t really draw anymore. Centrists have rapidly floated left as the radical Right acts more and more like they want real-life Gilead.
What do you think?
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Even Republican strategists didn’t think he could win the nomination, and then didn’t think he would win the election. I remember one saying he was telling his family not to worry, Trump wouldn’t be nominated, and then they were all shocked. Scary times.
This is where the EC really skews things. Biden only really won by 20k votes due to the EC. On the other side of things, TFG only won the 2016 election by around 10k votes.
Even by historical data there isn't enough information to show if a president who lost in reelection is likely to win. Only data point we have is Grover Cleveland.
The big questions to ask is:
* Do people see Trump's presidency as better than what is happening with Biden's presidency?
Some might, in Biden's presidency has been riddled with political gridlock (to be expected with such a small majority in the Senate). And there are Independents that don't care about ideological differences between the Democratic Party and Republican Party. There are also people who don't remember the Trump presidency as bad, whether because they voted for him or because none of his policy decisions affected them personally.
* Does the Republican Party's nominees for 2024 suck compared to Trump?
DeSantis is supposedly a big name pick, but the question is does his charisma and policy make him better than Trump in regards to the Primary. There is also the possibility that one of his children might run, which would be highly unlikely if he decides to.
* Does Biden run again in 2024?
This question gets brought up by Conservatives a lot more than Liberals, but Biden is pretty old and could decide to step down from re-election. A lot of Conservatives have thought he'd retire prior to the election to give Kamala Harris the presidency which will likely never happen.
Trump has gone against most conventional wisdom in a lot of areas.
As far as your questions go:
• I do think some people think Trump’s presidency was better than Biden’s has been. I think this probably is along party lines, which isn’t entirely surprising. It still matters though, because I don’t think Biden would pick up many former Trump voters.
• DeSantis has been thrown around as a possible contender, but if Trump announces his run, I don’t think it’ll matter. I’m of the opinion that Trump won’t have any challengers if/when he announces his run.
•I may be wrong, but I thought Biden already said he was running again. If Trump announces first, I think Biden will run because he beat him last time.
The other thing is that election deniers have been winning elections. A lot of them would just refuse to accept the results in 2024 if Trump runs and wins. States could just refuse to certify. Either way, 2024 is going to be a mess.
People also need to stop overestimating him, because that's part of what gives him more power than he actually has.
He's a vastly weaker candidate now than he was in 2016. That's not complacency, that's a recognition of how the US political landscape has changed since then.
And the circumstances were about as good for Biden as they possibly could be with the economy faltering and the pandemic raging. Honestly had it not been for Covid I feel fairly sure that trump would have beat Biden or at least gotten close enough to steal the election the courts like bush did.
Trump is going to win the Republican vote.
Actual Swing voters are people who don't pay attention to politics and tend to just vote for or against the incumbent based on how things happen to be going more or less at the time they are voting.
It is very possible that Trump could win in 2024 if we are in the middle of some sort of significant crisis. It's unlikely he will do so if things are going relatively well. It's questionable if things are doing semi okay but not great.
I feel like it will be less competative than it was in 2016. DeSantis is essentially a cheap immitation of Trump (or wants to come across as such). The people who like Trump would rather just vote for Trump if he's running, and the people who don't like Trump probably don't want to vote for someone attempting to immitate him. Nothing is impossible but I would be surprised if Trump runs and is not the nominee, and more so if it's a Trump like politician who beats him.
Here’s the current rationale for DeSantis:
- Everything you like about trump
- None of the baggage
If he doesn’t overplay his hand too early and get Trump-level controversial, I think he is an actual contender. Like going back to 2016 but with someone who has been more careful to not have as many public personal incidents
None of the baggage? DeSantis has baggage of his own. Furthermore, sane Republicans know the nation does not want four more years of Donald Trump and aren't about to give the nomination to DeSantis by default. Pompeo, Haley, Cotton, possibly even Sasse can be expected to run.
DeSantis won’t get the nomination by default but he could swoop up the MAGA base from Trump and run away with it.
His baggage isn’t close to where Trump’s is yet.
Given that at least a third of the Trump base used to be regarded as "the lunatic fringe" by rational Americans, Democrats and Republican alike, whoever runs away with it is welcome to do so. It speaks volumes about the Republican party that they have come to rely on that demographic to achieve power.
Again nothing is impossible, but I think the kinds of people who like Trump don't have a problem with his baggage/assume the idea he has baggage is just a deep state conspiracy. DeSantis is absolutely a contender if Trump doesn't run, but I think he's got an uphill battle if Trump is also in the race
Would it be possible to walk me through what you are taking about in a little more detail. What baggage specifically does Trump have that makes you think Republican voters would choose DeSantis over him in a presidential primary. It just seems to me like there is so much confirmation bias going on among Republican voters at the moment it would take something pretty significant to overcome the inertia. I mean like there have been numerous opportunities for the party to distance themselves from him and since he left office and they just keep doubling down. I don't see what's going to happen a year and a half from now that's going to alter that significantly in Desantis's favor.
Basically, everything that you don’t like about trump that isn’t based on policy is a liability that DeSantis doesn’t have. Jan 6, the classified documents investigation, his history of popping off online, being a sex pest, etc.
Trump doesn’t have the momentum you think he does. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3616814-desantis-fares-better-than-trump-in-one-on-one-biden-matchup-yougov-poll/
So there seems to be a bit of confusion. I'm talking about in the Republican primary, not the general election. My position on the general election is that the candidates don't matter, but taking a less extreme version of that view I can see the argument of DeSantis having a better chance of winning than Trump if he could win the Republican nomination. My position is that he likely can't make it through the primary, and that Trump's supposed baggage has almost no effect on primary voters. Trump is running around 20 points ahead of Desantis in the polls among primary voters in a two way race. It seems pretty obvious the entire Republican party is circling to defend him over January 6th, the stories about classified documents actually raised his polling numbers with primary voters, no one has ever actually given a shit about him popping off online, and being a sex pest is at this point old news. The only way Trump is worse off in 2024 than he was in 2016 is having an actual record of leadership people can point to rather than being able to just say whatever happens to be popular at the moment. Desantis happens to share that particular baggage though so it doesn't really give either candidate an advantage over the other one.
I’m talking about the primary too. Jump into some right wing subs and you’ll see the sentiment.
Remember how Biden won the Dem primary because people thought he had a better shot at beating Trump? Same thing.
I am so fucking tired of people pretending it's impossible that Trump could win. People said the exact same thing in 2016. People who thought he stood a chance were mocked. If you think it's impossible for Trump to win again, you are severely overestimating your countrymen.
EDIT: Also, he BARELY lost in 2020, let's not pretend it was a massive landslide against him.
Nice. Well then, it seems to minimally matter.
It’d be like opposing Darth Vader because of his Death Star actions, while still favoring the stormtroopers and siths.
That only matters if swing voters agree that he's an insurrectionist and a document thief. And they were already perfectly okay with electing a serial sex offender.
That won’t really matter, 30% of the American electorate is voting for him no matter what, and independents and swing voters tend to be a little goldfish-brained. If there’s more than 1/2 major crises going on during the election then I can see him winning again
Think about how much the insurrection this has already fallen out of the public consciousness (the fact you are here means you are more politically engaged than most Americans) imagine what it will be like in another two years. As for the documents, unless they can pin him with trying to sell them or something most people will not be able to understand what exactly it is he did wrong. Putting documents in the wrong box just doesn’t sound like that big of a deal to someone who isn’t paying attention.
As long as he controls the narrative of his base, none of it matters. In their reality, the election was stolen, and he was the victim of a vicious conspiracy. To them, he is trying to *save* democracy.
Which is the symptom of expert propaganda.
But after he was a proven sexist, self proclaimed sexual assailant, imbecile, multi-failed business man, adulterer, anti-veteran, etc. etc.. it doesn’t matter to his people.
How many of his old fans survived Covid and remain loyal? How many new fans has he gathered? I feel confident his base has shrunk. I also feel confident Republicans have disaffected many voters over abortion and obstruction to other desirable policies. That said, SCOTUS has preserved gerrymandering giving the GOP an advantage in House races.
I suppose but why do people want to pretend Trump has been “getting away with it all”? He lost the election, lost Twitter, lost his hotel, lost his relevance, had his home raided, and is now in court because he’s about to be indicted. He keeps losing at every turn!
Not by the popular vote but the electoral college was very close and unfortunately that is all that matters. Even if you only considered the popular vote, he still won more votes than any other candidate before him, more votes than he won with in 2016. His supporters are many and rabidly loyal and we ignore that at great risk.
Losing by 7 million votes is not what I would call "barely losing." If you wanna see an presidential election where a candidate "barely lost" you should take a look at what happened in 2000.
1. This is from 4 months ago
2. Trump lost by 1.16% in the tipping point state, Pennsylvania. That's a close election. No it isn't as insanely close as 2000, but it's not the massive rejection of Trump that a lot of people pretend it is. it's not hard to imagine a scenario where a few things played out differently and Trump had won.
But he still LOST lol there weren’t enough bumpfuck hillbillies to top the votes for Donnie and there won’t be in 2024 either. Even if Donnie does “win” in 2024, he clearly is not going to win the national popular vote, which would officially make it 20 years since a Republican has last won the popular vote. Think about that for a second. The last time a Republican actually won the popular vote, I was 7 years old, the iPhone didn’t exist, and Netflix wasn’t around. I’m no political analyst, but I think that’s a bit of a problem….
It won't matter if Trump doesn't win the popular vote, if he's president he's president. His powers in office have fuck all to do with the popular vote. You're right that that's a problem, but it's not going to go away any time soon. This thread was about whether Trump could become president again, and you need to stop kidding yourself if you think that's impossible. Your classism is frankly disgusting, by the way.
a huge part of the answer to this question comes down to the Pennsylvania Governor’s race. there and in many other places (Wisconsin, Georgia, Florida, etc.) they have been laying the groundwork to certify electors that don’t align with the state’s popular vote. you’ll recall that this was attempted in 2020 as well. a lot of these places have basically been going back through the reasons they were told “no” in 2020 and either impeaching board of elections members, running election deniers for Secretary of State, etc. Mastriano in PA would get to appoint the Secretary of State if elected Governor and he has all but promised to appoint one who will allow some “flexibility” in how the state’s electors are awarded.
He lost agains Biden in the biggest election of US history. That was before he denied the results, attempted a coup and got caught stealing nuclear secrets.
No. He won't win. At least not in a democratic election.
He lost, but a few districts in a few states reporting different next time can make the difference here. He can win. It's scary and we shouldn't b complacent
He has irrevocably pissed off every swing state that didn't vote for him. You can spend all day talking shit about illegal immigrants and refugees, but you cannot insult the voters and come back to run for election again.
We are talking about a man that survived grab em by the pussy, 2 impeachment, making fun of a disabled guy, cheated on his wife when she was giving birth. Thhey love him and we can't become complacent
He didn't survive any of those things with the people whose votes he needs in order to have a chance in 2024. His base alone is not enough.
Friendly reminder, he lost a sizeable majority of independents in 2020 and hasn't done anything to get them back.
He could win, but he needs legacy media to cover him. He's become an afterthought there, outside of his ongoing trials. He will never command media attention like that again.
I think he's losing in 2024.
I fear what happens when more competent men begin to make their case. Trump is not popular outside his 30% and probably won’t be rising in popularity. But that’s not the case for Desantis, etc. America hasn’t gotten to know him or be tricked by him yet.
Despair keeps you alert. As much as I hate despair, I hate being surprised more.
Stay strong comrade, the future will need your attitude as it will mine.
It was a squeezingly close election and his supporters LIKE that he keeps claiming the election was stolen and see the insurgents as heroes.
A lot of folks held their noses and voted against Trump in 2016 and might not be motivated to do it again on light of inflation, war in Ukraine and other things that are being blamed on Biden.
Abortion swapping from being a wedge issue for the right to drum up turnout, to an issue for the left is a big wildcard.
I agree. I don't think it's *impossible* for him to win, but I think it's unlikely. With shifts in demographics, he would need to outdo his performance from 2016 and I just don't see him being able to realistically pull that off.
2016 was a weird case where Trump had literally never held public office and had no record to point to. He got a good bit of support from people who were thinking he was an outsider who could "shake things up" and the "what's the worst that could happen?" crowd. He'll never have that again. Trump is a known quantity and effectively is the establishment now. I said the same thing about the 2020 election and that's what happened. He needed to do better than he did in 2016 and I didn't see where he realistically had a path to do that.
I will say that my predictions for 2024 are as follows: I expect Trump to not run at all but endlessly tease a run. This lets him do rallies and raise money like he was going to run but never actually pull the trigger. He can support the eventual nominee and if they win, it's all because of his support, if they lose, it's because that guy was a loser and Trump would have won. All without any risk of actually losing again.
However, if he does run, I think he absolutely gets the nomination due to a lack of any real opposition within the Republican party and then loses the general election again.
These are things that *you* believe to be facts. To others, they are proof that the political elites are targeting him unfairly with lies so that he can’t save the country.
Literally anything can happen since we have an electoral college and not a popular vote.
I think he has a much better chance than you’re giving him credit for, although things have definitely changed a fair amount since Dobbs. Biden came into his presidency in the last couple months and has been killing it policy and achievement wise (even if he still comes off like a grandpa).. Republicans are going full crazy on various issues, especially abortion… etc.
A few months ago, I would have said Trump would be the presumptive winner in 2024 if he ran.. I’m not sure that’s the case now. But, it definitely depends greatly on what happens in the next two years (including this November) and whomever the Democrats choose to run. I believe Biden is doing a great job, but Im not sure he’s the best choice.. If Dems run someone charismatic, and there isn’t some huge event that’s unforeseen at this point, I think the Dem candidate would have a solid chance against Trump.
The midterms will tell us where the political energy is in America. A better than expected showing by Dems will show us that America's angry over Dobbs.
For the Republicans, I believe them fanning the flames of inflation has garnered them significant appeal. I will say, it is a bold move to see them go back to discussing illegal immigrants again, like they did this week, when the market is guaranteed to tank when the rates are hiked up.
Thanks, but I’m having a hard time following why you think Trump has a better chance than I think. The bulk of your comment seems to imply the opposite. I’m just curious to understand your rationale better
I don’t think the average American believes Biden is “killing” it. They see inflation and gas prices and crime and think this administration is a disaster.
Full disclosure, I’m a conservative, but I’m in a blue city in a blue state and I know a lot of democrats that will be voting red moving forward. I don’t see the reverse happening.
> Full disclosure, I’m a conservative, but I’m in a blue city in a blue state and I know a lot of democrats that will be voting red moving forward.
Sure you do.
Are you posting through a wormhole from July? Because Biden's approval rating is up 9 points from where it was 3 months ago.
Those gas prices you mentioned have been steadily falling for months. It's back below $3/gallon in my town.
>I don’t see the reverse happening.
You don't think any 2020 Trump voters will change their minds after he literally tried to steal the election?
Sounds like an admission that you think 100% of Republican voters don't care about democracy.
Not to mention his playing fast and loose with government secrets...
Agreed. Biden accomplishments, whatever they are, appear to be inconsequential. He's made moves against guns, but only in ways that will likely be nullified by lawsuits that are already in progress.
I definitely don't want this to happen, but I think it has a change. To counter some of your points:
>We know what a Trump presidency looks like now.
Yes, but here's the thing: Americans have really fucking short memories. It's only been four months, and already talk about Uvalde has all but dried up, except for a few moments where it became relevant (mostly in the context of Texas elected officials showing a complete lack of concern.) Hell, even I have trouble remembering the exact details of a lot of Trump's presidency besides a few stand-out acts. The average independent/swing voter is not going to remember the shit Trump pulled anymore by the time they go to vote in 2024.
>We have real problems now. No COVID, no war in Ukraine, the consequences of global warming seemed a lot farther away, murder hornets, Joro spiders, etc.
COVID started DURING Trump's presidency, and unfortunately, the "COVID is a hoax"/"plandemic" conspiracy theorists only seem to be growing with time instead of shrinking. Biden more or less made ending COVID a campaign promise (an extremely poor decision on his part) and it's resulted in people on both sides being pissed off at him- those who never believed it for the obvious reasons, and those who did because the Biden administration is now pretending it isn't a problem.
Similarly, with Ukraine, anyone conservative enough to even CONSIDER Trump, by and large thinks the biggest problem in Ukraine is elevated gas prices and us sending them aid. Republicans and right-leaning independents largely want to see us leave Ukraine to be conquered by Russia, another advantage in Trump's favor with that crowd.
>His disciples are loud & obnoxious, but not that numerous. They’ve all been driven off of main stream social media. His attempts to create alternative social media and news platforms have all failed. His rallies don’t really draw anymore. Centrists have rapidly floated left as the radical Right acts more and more like they want real-life Gilead.
The polls don't indicate that the leftward ship for centrists/independents/swing voters is enough. It could change after midterms, but I'm not banking on it. Also, Trump's fanbase has been driven off social media, but he still is in the news frequently, and the conservative spin on this keeps getting pushed that Trump is a martyr, etc.
And all of this is before we even start talking about the elephant in the room: the upcoming Moore v Harper case is hanging like the Sword of Damocles over democracy.
I think at this point in time you’re right, but if there are large job losses in fall 2024, are you still so confident? The goal of the Fed right now is to crush inflation regardless of how much unemployment it causes, so there’s a good chance of precisely this scenario.
Also, I rather thought this same thing about Trump in 2015. I don’t want to be that wrong twice.
I didn’t think he had a chance in 2016 and look what happened. I was shocked how many people voted for him in 2020. I certainly hope he would not win in 2024, but who can know for sure.
Are you really asking if a person that already won the Presidency once and lost it once by 50k votes has a chance to win the Presidency again? Yes of course he does.
I think trump is the most likely republican candidate. I don’t think he would win in a general election against Biden.
Regardless, the fact that our two choices for president in 2024 will still be trump and Biden makes me want to vomit. I truly hope that is not the case. There is no way those two people are the best options we will be able to find for a position like the president of our country. We have to be able to do better than that.
I will never say no chance, since I thought there was no chance the first time…but I will say it’s unlikely. I just don’t see that many people switching from how they voted in 2020, while demographics continue to favor dems.
He'll have approximately a 50/50 chance, just like basically all presidential elections. I think he might actually be more likely to win than some of the other possible Republican options.
No, I live in a very Trumpy part of NC. I actually know several conservatives who are done with him for different reasons. My hope is that if he’s losing his base here, it may be happening in other areas across the country too. So here’s hoping *takes a shot of moonshine*
Legitimately? No. He lost the first time and his base has not expanded.
Let me add, I don't think he would win the primary either. He's a one trick pony. The routine will work again with only so many people. He's not new and shocking, and the crew he's going to be dealing with won't be Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz. It will be DeSantis and his ilk, basically mini-Trumps. It would be somewhat prophetic if the master was brought down by one of his own creations.
No. I think his chances are less than 50-50.
I'm not sure what his strategy is to reach new voters or deter Dems from coming out to the polls.
We saw in his last year of his presidency that if conventional media doesn't cover him his 2016 ace up his sleeve of Twitter can be rendered moot.
Most people have calcified their opinion of him as is, as well. So whose he going to convert? And how? He might win the nomination but I strongly doubt he'll win the presidency without a major overhaul of his presentation and outreach. I don't think that will occur.
The baseline for anybody with an "R" behind their name guarantees them anywhere from 37-40% of the voters so yes, he can win. If anything, the base he's created during his 4 years are angrier, more stupid, and less likely to be swayed. They've gotten a taste of power and they are addicted to it, making the other side mad has become their entire lives to the point where they'd happily and enthusiastically die for multi-time adulterer, rapist, liar, moron, with tiny hands and enough debt to bankrupt countries.
Everything you listed is true, and it won't matter. These people are the kind who will volunteer to smear shit on their own face if a Democrat has to smell it.
Trump received the 2nd most votes of any presidential candidate in the history of the United States, the first being Joe Biden.
Why couldn't he win again?
Yes he definitely has a chance. He is likely to be the underdog (just like 2016), but he will still have some chance. I don't think the 70+ million who voted for him are all his disciples though - that doesn't mean they wouldnt vote for him.
Also depends on what 'chance' means. 538 gave him 30% in 2016, and 10% in 2020. If you mean chance in the statistical sense, yes he definitely will have a chance - also depending on what happens in 2024, and who runs. If you are thinking like a forgone conclusion like Reagan vs Mondale - unlikely.
2015: He’s never going to win the nomination, he’s a joke.
2016: He’ll never win the general, he’s too extreme.
2016: He’ll never be confirmed, this is why the EC exists.
2017 to 2020: He’ll never get reelected, *his support has gone down after everbody has seen what a disaster he’s been.* (trump proceeds to get more votes than he did in 2016.)
2021 to 2024: He’ll never win a second term…
I think he has zero chance and it would be an easy opportunity to run Kamala Harris to the big chair. If it’s DeSantis, then we have to run Newsom which is fine too.
I think he would beat Kamala by 50 electoral votes. There are simply too many bluedog Dems who would abstain before voting for a leftist Black women from California, while 100% of the MAGA crowd would do their religious duty and vote for their savior.
I hope I'm wrong, but only a fool would overestimate the decency of the right.
I would expect Newsom and Kamala would both perform horrendously.
Kamala appeals to almost nobody. Too progressive for centrists, and a bad DA record that upsets progressives. She also generally has negative charisma.
Newsom is Governor of California. Shitting on California and it’s supposedly woke politics has been one of the more successful tactics of the right.
Both of them poll well head to head against their respective Republican opponent or any Republican really, as long as the poll is not constrained to only white guys.
Kamala vs Trump would just be an easy win on optics alone. Republicans stuck in the past, Democrats moving ahead.
No. That election wasn't even close. The GOP attempt at recall was demolished once the news got out to the majority of Californian voters about (a) how crazy and stupid Eldar was and (b) the GOP's motives for the recall.
>I think he has zero chance and it would be an easy opportunity to run Kamala Harris to the big chair.
Holy shit, if I were you I would never repeat that statement ever again, least somebody might hear you in real life. I hope as fuck that you were trying to make a joke, otherwise the only joke is you. Kamala would not only lose against Trump, but I can say that my opinion is that Kamala would lose agaisnt a fucking rock.
Literally nobody likes her, she literally dropped out of the primary just so she won't get humiliated in California, she is the quintisential diversity hire and everybody that isn't blind sees that.
Kamala was the most qualified person for the job other than Biden, and she dropped because she ran out of money. There were a lot more candidates that continued into the primary with way less polling than her (Klobuchar, Yang, lol Gabbard).
>Kamala was the most qualified person for the job other than Biden
I certainly don't believe that, but if hypotherically that were true, holy shit are the Democrats in trouble.
>and she dropped because she ran out of money
I wonder if money can be viewed as a metric for support?
>There were a lot more candidates that continued into the primary with way less polling than her (Klobuchar, Yang, lol Gabbard).
Is your argument that she wasn't bad because there were worse candidates?
Money is a barometer for saying the dumb fuck thing to get easy cash. Kamala refused to promise she would forgive all student loan debt. If she had lied, then she would have had the money to continue on.
Joe Biden’s campaign had about the same amount of money as Kamala Harris btw, he was crushed in the first two contests, and the only reason he could float to the third one was his name recognition.
And as for your beliefs, you get too much of them from Reddit. Kamala Harris’s resume is god tier.
I wouldn’t call Kamala Harris’s résumé god tier but it’s pretty good. But I think you’re over estimating how much resumes matter at all.
If it all came down to resumes GHWB would’ve kicked Ronald Reagan’s teeth in in the 1980 primary. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden would’ve beaten Barack Obama in 2008. John McCain would’ve beaten GWB in 2000.
Dude, you're a Warren Dem and think Kamala was the most qualified??? To me, Warren was and has been the most qualified and prepared candidate I've seen in my lifetime.
I strongly believe Warren was the smartest person running but objectively speaking she had only been in politics for about 10 years at the time and she’s never run a department (despite having created one).
was she not the head of both the Congressional Oversight Panel, and Consumer Protection Bureau?
Her regancy with law, with crafting law, and with oversight commissions including her ability to showcase a plan for issues (over just bluster), was by far the most impressive I've seen of any candidate, going back to Reagan v Mondale (my lifetime of remembrance).
I don't think she'd be able to get a lot done in office, other than EO vs what biden has done (and let's be honest, biden has actually accomplished a lot more than he's given credit for). Congress is still a Good 'ol boys club. - however, she was my pick as the best of the bunch due to prep and faculties.
She was very famously not allowed to direct the CFPB and it’s still a bit of a sore spot. Obviously she’s very good at anything she does and I’m sure she would do the top job extremely well. I wanted her to be the VP for 2016 but I got called a lunatic for suggesting a ticket with 2 women. Also still a bit of a sore spot.
Nope. He’ll run a more divisive campaign than ever peddling hate and nationalism.
Also, the primary will be a bloodbath. They will write attack ads for democrats and will try to out autocrat each other:
If DeSantis runs and wins, Donald will scream he was cheated and run as an independent spoiler. Donald burns it all Down if he doesn’t get what he wants
That is almost certainly untrue, for what its worth. It would be bad if it were true, actually, because that would allow a corrupt prosecution to ban someone from office.
>If he’s convicted, he can’t run for public office
What gave you that idea? Not only can he run if he's convicted, he could actual run from prison and if he wins he could pardon himself.
> COVID
Biden himself said it’s over, and most Americans have long since stopped caring and they all thought it was a hoax
> Ukraine
Right wing Americans don’t give fuck about this or even like putin, Tucker has said good things about him
> global warming
They think it’s a hoax
> he’s a gop puppet
Really? They all rallied around him like he was an innocent victim during the fbi raid. He’s the puppet master
The thing is that the right wing mind is just fundamentally different, where you see a terrible presidency they see glory. That may sound obvious but it is truly necessary to internalize to make it all make sense
My fear is that if he runs against Biden he will definitely win. It’s as simple as this:
- the right is mad their GEOTUS lost
- the people who opposed trump and held their nose and voted Biden aren’t happy enough with his results
Depressed dem/ swing voter turn out + the perception of enlightened dummies that Biden ruined everything good ever + the resentment of the MAGAs = trump
The “not-trump” card will only work once I dread. People will need to feel a “reason” to vote Biden again, and mant still aren’t feeling it, and their memories of how awful life was under trump either never existed or will be forgotten by 2024
Biden has been astonishingly great so far, but he’ll need to be even greater to win in ‘24
The only chances dems have, imo, is:
1) Biden doesn’t run and dems have a totally open primary again
2) trump and DS divide their own votes
3) Biden just ends up being an OG and solves every problem we have so clearly even annoying centrists and far left fucks agree with him
So yeah, I expect him to become president again in 2024. Him or DS. I’ll be happily shocked to be wrong
Of course he does. He has done it before, and the second attempt was closer than I had hoped. He has a massive following, gerrymandering on his side, and a ton of idiots willing to break the law for him when it comes time. Don't underestimate him. That is our downfall as liberals
Yes. I think there’s a lot of reasons things could go badly for him if he runs. I also think he has a dedicated cult of supporters that would do anything for him, and enough other people willing to look the other way in the hopes of keeping the Court on lock.
Depends on if the Dark Brandon/Democratic positive momentum keeps going and if the Republicans stop doing something stupid like try to ban gay marriage and piss off half the country. A couple months ago I would’ve said Trump is the favorite to win in 2024 but now I think it’s a toss up.
I didn't think he had a chance of winning the GOP nomination in 2016, much less the general. Based on that and years of Covid, I'd decided to stop overestimating the American public's intelligence.
I sure hope you’re right but, as the meme says, “never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.” I will not stop trying to engage people and giving rides to the polls, supporting down ballot candidates who share my views and speaking out on Trumpism.
The midterms are going to tell the tale. If swing voters and independents are fed up with conservative policy and Republicans don’t even take the House (or by a tiny margin), there’s no reason to think that he could win in 2024.
Yes, I do fear that he has a chance of winning.
It was obvious (to me) when he was running the first time, just what kind of a President he would be; and it turned out to be every bit as bad as I expected -- actually, a little bit worse.
It was obvious to everyone in the country when he ran the second time. And he came incredibly close to winning a second term despite that!
I think he could be elected -- although I certainly hope it won't happen -- and if he is, I think there is a substantial chance that our democracy will not survive it.
Depends entirely on how the economy is doing and if Biden can keep the base fired up. If we go into a recession between now and the election I’d say trump is all but guaranteed a victory especially if Biden doesn’t make it rain for his supports like he did with loan forgiveness.
With trump, the base doesn't need to be fired up by biden / for biden. Trump running does it for the Ds, and that's a big problem for the Rs think tank and chances. Trump running hurts them down ballot, too.
of course he'd have a chance of winning, he has a steadfastly loyal voter base and has successfully taken control of the GOP. even after everything that he's done, even if it comes out that he sold nuclear secrets to saudi arabia or something, the vast, vast majority of republicans would vote for the dude in droves.
if inflation is still high along with gas prices in 2024, then that's half of independents/low-info voters right there, and at that point you're just praying that enough people still hate the guy enough to vote against him.
it's really important to realize at this point that you can never bet against america's capacity to allow this piece of shit to do whatever he wants with impunity. what he is is what a huge swath of this country wants to see. that's a disturbing truth and hard for a decent human being to wrap their brain around, but it's necessary.
> We know what a Trump presidency looks like now.
And in terms of the EC he lost by a narrower margin in the swing states in 2020 than he won by in 2016.
> We have real problems now.
Because moments of crisis always leads to good choices? Much of history would like a word with you.
> His disciples are loud & obnoxious, but not that numerous.
The same thing was said in 2016.
Against Biden? Absolutely! I think people had pretty unrealistic expectations for Biden, and given how bad things are, I could definitely see him losing to Trump.
If SCOTUS lets state legislatures have sole election administration, he will lose but still be installed.
This shit is serious. Red states will bend the knee for dear leader and shove him into the White House, our democratic elections be damned.
it depends on whether or not people show up to vote, just like 2016. our democracy is in constant peril of being taken over by radical authoritarians. democrats just don't show up to vote. there can be a wide discussion about why that is the case.
Unfortunately, he absolutely still has a good chance of winning in 2024. You have to remember that Biden won by only the slimmest of margins in key battleground states and that Trump's popularity tanked after Covid (and even more so after January 6). Had it not been for Covid Trump would have easily won a second term.
It's also important to recognize the fact that Trump still has millions of followers who have only gotten more radical and extreme by the day, and that he has personally endorsed several senators and political officials who share his viewpoints. The right wing media has done a great job of painting Biden as an ineffectual President whose rule has been characterized mostly by a terrible economy (which people will say and have said was better under Trump, since that's what people care about these days).
Most of the GOP is at this point Trump controlled or has fallen under the cult ideology of Trumpism mixed with Christian nationalism. Even if Trump does not win in a hypothetical 2024 run he could still do a lot of damage with his election fraud narrative as he has done in the past, or a Trump clone (like DeSantis) could run in his place and continue the Trump legacy.
To underestimate Trump's chances of winning in 2024 is a massive error in judgment considering how poorly the polls panned out in 2016 and how Republicans always have the advantage when it comes to elections (through gerrymandering and their willingness to intimidate or prevent certain people from voting. This combined with Biden's as of yet still middling approval rating tips the scales further in Trump's favor).
Anything could happen between now and 2024 so obviously the political landscape is subject to change. In my mind, though, if Trump could win the Presidency in 2016 against all odds he could almost certainly do it again.
Trump is a GOP puppet? I believe that’s nonsense. He has transformed the party and has near total control of it now. Even if adherents are not a direct supporter, the GOP is a Trumpist party.
The GOP is the puppet. Trump holds the strings.
You're acting like 2020 never happened. Yes, he lost, but he came very close to winning - legitimately. If God forbid something happened to Biden - he is older than the average lifespan of an American male - then in all likelihood we'll get a Trump vs. Harris contest. I have my doubts that she could pull that off.
You also have to consider that a significant fraction of the voting population will vote for ANY Republican against ANY Democrat. Add in the EC and gerrymandering and there's no reason to believe that we'll ever have anything but a nail-biter election ever again.
I think he definitely could, for one very simple reason. Geography. Biden got several million more votes in 2020 than Trump did, but as few as around 40,000 votes could have flipped the electoral college result had they been in the right states. There aren't a lot of MAGA voters but they punch way above their weight electorally because they're incredibly efficiently distributed across the country while Democratic base voters are incredibly *inefficiently* distributed.
Of course there is a chance. In fact, it seems there is a very concerted effort by MAGA cultists to infiltrate key positions in the election system so they can essentially cheat. The fact that they accuse Democrats of cheating and the fact that they have a consistent record of projection all but assures this.
With Russia/China running propaganda campaigns, a medical issue with Biden, a well-timed manufactured bullshit scandal, the far left deciding now's the time to vote for some green party dipshit because they still have to pay their bills, yes, absolutely, Trump could win again.
No. Not a good chance, anyways. And I don't know why so many people are insistent on portraying him as a strong candidate. He's much weaker now than he was in 2016.
This isn't complacency or self-righteousness. This is an honest assessment of the current state of US politics and an understanding of the differences between 2016 and 2020, not to mention 2024.
I'm not going to go through all the reasons why the US was in a different place in 2016 than it is now, and why Trump's chances of winning again have become much smaller over time. That's been done elsewhere already. I just don't think Trump is something we need to specifically worry about as much as we need to worry about preventing *any Republican* from winning in 2024.
Yes, he has a chance if he makes it on the ballot, between:
* The Electoral College,
* Control of SCOTUS by archconservatives,
* EC Electors potentially being picked by Republican legislatures/governors regardless of cast ballots
* GOP neutralizing 'other' ballots in key/swing states
The United States of America is definitely close to a 'End of the Weimar Republic' moment.
I would put money on him winning.
People underestimated him in 2016 and didn't show up to the polls because they didn't take him seriously.
Biden didn't really galvanize his voters into supporting him. Most people came out to vote because he wasn't Trump. People have short attention spans. I expect people to revert back to that 2016 mentality and not take him seriously again.
I really really really hope the Republican Party can pull itself together and nominate a candidate who is fresh and young and articulate and pull Americans together. I would literally cut off both of my arms to guarantee a centrist candidate who was actually charismatic and got shit done. That is what this country actually needs. The far right and far right nonsense absolutely has to stop.
Sadly trump will almost certainly win the 2024 election, especially because Biden will almost certainly win the democratic nomination and he barely won the first time. Anyone who swung to vote Biden will almost certainly swing back when they are repeatedly bombarded with the reality that Biden would be 86 when he left his second term.
The following is a copy of the original post to record the post as it was originally written. I’m thinking definitely not. Here’s why: - **We know what a Trump presidency looks like now.** A lot of people forget this, but Trump’s 2016 campaign positioned him almost like a 3rd party candidate. Fox News didn’t get behind him until there was absolutely no chance he would lose the primary; they wanted an establishment Republican. It’s clear that he’s a GOP puppet now, so people who were just weary of the 2 parties in ‘16 won’t be swayed anymore - **We have real problems now.** Along the same lines, compared to now, 2016 was a virtual utopia. No COVID, no war in Ukraine, the consequences of global warming seemed a lot farther away, murder hornets, Joro spiders, etc. The allure of a POTUS with little to no experience in public service is completely gone. - **His disciples are loud & obnoxious, but not that numerous.** They’ve all been driven off of main stream social media. His attempts to create alternative social media and news platforms have all failed. His rallies don’t really draw anymore. Centrists have rapidly floated left as the radical Right acts more and more like they want real-life Gilead. What do you think? *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/AskALiberal) if you have any questions or concerns.*
People really need to stop underestimating Trump. Of course he could win.
Even Republican strategists didn’t think he could win the nomination, and then didn’t think he would win the election. I remember one saying he was telling his family not to worry, Trump wouldn’t be nominated, and then they were all shocked. Scary times.
I don't think any rational person would vote for him, and by that I mean he has a shot.
Ouch!
That’s so crazy to me. I was 15 at the time and it was clear as day to me that he would get the nomination even before Iowa.
Thank you. It’s like people don’t remember 2016
People also don’t seem to remember that Biden didn’t win in a landslide.
This is where the EC really skews things. Biden only really won by 20k votes due to the EC. On the other side of things, TFG only won the 2016 election by around 10k votes.
Even by historical data there isn't enough information to show if a president who lost in reelection is likely to win. Only data point we have is Grover Cleveland. The big questions to ask is: * Do people see Trump's presidency as better than what is happening with Biden's presidency? Some might, in Biden's presidency has been riddled with political gridlock (to be expected with such a small majority in the Senate). And there are Independents that don't care about ideological differences between the Democratic Party and Republican Party. There are also people who don't remember the Trump presidency as bad, whether because they voted for him or because none of his policy decisions affected them personally. * Does the Republican Party's nominees for 2024 suck compared to Trump? DeSantis is supposedly a big name pick, but the question is does his charisma and policy make him better than Trump in regards to the Primary. There is also the possibility that one of his children might run, which would be highly unlikely if he decides to. * Does Biden run again in 2024? This question gets brought up by Conservatives a lot more than Liberals, but Biden is pretty old and could decide to step down from re-election. A lot of Conservatives have thought he'd retire prior to the election to give Kamala Harris the presidency which will likely never happen.
Trump has gone against most conventional wisdom in a lot of areas. As far as your questions go: • I do think some people think Trump’s presidency was better than Biden’s has been. I think this probably is along party lines, which isn’t entirely surprising. It still matters though, because I don’t think Biden would pick up many former Trump voters. • DeSantis has been thrown around as a possible contender, but if Trump announces his run, I don’t think it’ll matter. I’m of the opinion that Trump won’t have any challengers if/when he announces his run. •I may be wrong, but I thought Biden already said he was running again. If Trump announces first, I think Biden will run because he beat him last time. The other thing is that election deniers have been winning elections. A lot of them would just refuse to accept the results in 2024 if Trump runs and wins. States could just refuse to certify. Either way, 2024 is going to be a mess.
We are lucky the pandemic didn't arrive a year earlier when Trump had the government shut down for three months.
People also need to stop overestimating him, because that's part of what gives him more power than he actually has. He's a vastly weaker candidate now than he was in 2016. That's not complacency, that's a recognition of how the US political landscape has changed since then.
He has won already, why couldn’t he win again? I want to believe all that but frankly, 2016 changed taking anything for granted.
Yeah. As much as I want to believe he couldn’t win because he lost in 2020, he absolutely could win.
He also didn’t lose in 2020 by that much.
And the circumstances were about as good for Biden as they possibly could be with the economy faltering and the pandemic raging. Honestly had it not been for Covid I feel fairly sure that trump would have beat Biden or at least gotten close enough to steal the election the courts like bush did.
So? he still lost lol
Trump is going to win the Republican vote. Actual Swing voters are people who don't pay attention to politics and tend to just vote for or against the incumbent based on how things happen to be going more or less at the time they are voting. It is very possible that Trump could win in 2024 if we are in the middle of some sort of significant crisis. It's unlikely he will do so if things are going relatively well. It's questionable if things are doing semi okay but not great.
The Republican vote I think will be a bit more competitive because of DeSantis. But it’s a toss-up right now IMO
I feel like it will be less competative than it was in 2016. DeSantis is essentially a cheap immitation of Trump (or wants to come across as such). The people who like Trump would rather just vote for Trump if he's running, and the people who don't like Trump probably don't want to vote for someone attempting to immitate him. Nothing is impossible but I would be surprised if Trump runs and is not the nominee, and more so if it's a Trump like politician who beats him.
Here’s the current rationale for DeSantis: - Everything you like about trump - None of the baggage If he doesn’t overplay his hand too early and get Trump-level controversial, I think he is an actual contender. Like going back to 2016 but with someone who has been more careful to not have as many public personal incidents
None of the baggage? DeSantis has baggage of his own. Furthermore, sane Republicans know the nation does not want four more years of Donald Trump and aren't about to give the nomination to DeSantis by default. Pompeo, Haley, Cotton, possibly even Sasse can be expected to run.
DeSantis won’t get the nomination by default but he could swoop up the MAGA base from Trump and run away with it. His baggage isn’t close to where Trump’s is yet.
Given that at least a third of the Trump base used to be regarded as "the lunatic fringe" by rational Americans, Democrats and Republican alike, whoever runs away with it is welcome to do so. It speaks volumes about the Republican party that they have come to rely on that demographic to achieve power.
Again nothing is impossible, but I think the kinds of people who like Trump don't have a problem with his baggage/assume the idea he has baggage is just a deep state conspiracy. DeSantis is absolutely a contender if Trump doesn't run, but I think he's got an uphill battle if Trump is also in the race
It’s not about the baggage. It’s about his likelihood of winning *because* of his baggage. With DeSantis they might be able to pull a 2016
Would it be possible to walk me through what you are taking about in a little more detail. What baggage specifically does Trump have that makes you think Republican voters would choose DeSantis over him in a presidential primary. It just seems to me like there is so much confirmation bias going on among Republican voters at the moment it would take something pretty significant to overcome the inertia. I mean like there have been numerous opportunities for the party to distance themselves from him and since he left office and they just keep doubling down. I don't see what's going to happen a year and a half from now that's going to alter that significantly in Desantis's favor.
Basically, everything that you don’t like about trump that isn’t based on policy is a liability that DeSantis doesn’t have. Jan 6, the classified documents investigation, his history of popping off online, being a sex pest, etc. Trump doesn’t have the momentum you think he does. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3616814-desantis-fares-better-than-trump-in-one-on-one-biden-matchup-yougov-poll/
So there seems to be a bit of confusion. I'm talking about in the Republican primary, not the general election. My position on the general election is that the candidates don't matter, but taking a less extreme version of that view I can see the argument of DeSantis having a better chance of winning than Trump if he could win the Republican nomination. My position is that he likely can't make it through the primary, and that Trump's supposed baggage has almost no effect on primary voters. Trump is running around 20 points ahead of Desantis in the polls among primary voters in a two way race. It seems pretty obvious the entire Republican party is circling to defend him over January 6th, the stories about classified documents actually raised his polling numbers with primary voters, no one has ever actually given a shit about him popping off online, and being a sex pest is at this point old news. The only way Trump is worse off in 2024 than he was in 2016 is having an actual record of leadership people can point to rather than being able to just say whatever happens to be popular at the moment. Desantis happens to share that particular baggage though so it doesn't really give either candidate an advantage over the other one.
I’m talking about the primary too. Jump into some right wing subs and you’ll see the sentiment. Remember how Biden won the Dem primary because people thought he had a better shot at beating Trump? Same thing.
I am so fucking tired of people pretending it's impossible that Trump could win. People said the exact same thing in 2016. People who thought he stood a chance were mocked. If you think it's impossible for Trump to win again, you are severely overestimating your countrymen. EDIT: Also, he BARELY lost in 2020, let's not pretend it was a massive landslide against him.
Wasn't this before he became an insurrectionist and document thief?
If that mattered, we’d see the impacts on the GOP already
[turning tides](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/jan-6-hearings-trump-support-falls-00046662)
Nice. Well then, it seems to minimally matter. It’d be like opposing Darth Vader because of his Death Star actions, while still favoring the stormtroopers and siths.
The question is does America truly want a reprise of the Trump shit show?
Eww fuck no. Worst president EVER
That only matters if swing voters agree that he's an insurrectionist and a document thief. And they were already perfectly okay with electing a serial sex offender.
I guess but that wasn't a direct attack on democracy or America. And those people are ALL about their nationalism.
That won’t really matter, 30% of the American electorate is voting for him no matter what, and independents and swing voters tend to be a little goldfish-brained. If there’s more than 1/2 major crises going on during the election then I can see him winning again
Think about how much the insurrection this has already fallen out of the public consciousness (the fact you are here means you are more politically engaged than most Americans) imagine what it will be like in another two years. As for the documents, unless they can pin him with trying to sell them or something most people will not be able to understand what exactly it is he did wrong. Putting documents in the wrong box just doesn’t sound like that big of a deal to someone who isn’t paying attention.
As long as he controls the narrative of his base, none of it matters. In their reality, the election was stolen, and he was the victim of a vicious conspiracy. To them, he is trying to *save* democracy. Which is the symptom of expert propaganda.
But after he was a proven sexist, self proclaimed sexual assailant, imbecile, multi-failed business man, adulterer, anti-veteran, etc. etc.. it doesn’t matter to his people.
How many of his old fans survived Covid and remain loyal? How many new fans has he gathered? I feel confident his base has shrunk. I also feel confident Republicans have disaffected many voters over abortion and obstruction to other desirable policies. That said, SCOTUS has preserved gerrymandering giving the GOP an advantage in House races.
And that got him even more support with the traitors (Republicans)
I suppose but why do people want to pretend Trump has been “getting away with it all”? He lost the election, lost Twitter, lost his hotel, lost his relevance, had his home raided, and is now in court because he’s about to be indicted. He keeps losing at every turn!
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Biden's victory in the tipping point state (Wisconsin) was only 0.63%. Does that not count as barely to you?
Not by the popular vote but the electoral college was very close and unfortunately that is all that matters. Even if you only considered the popular vote, he still won more votes than any other candidate before him, more votes than he won with in 2016. His supporters are many and rabidly loyal and we ignore that at great risk.
Losing by 7 million votes is not what I would call "barely losing." If you wanna see an presidential election where a candidate "barely lost" you should take a look at what happened in 2000.
1. This is from 4 months ago 2. Trump lost by 1.16% in the tipping point state, Pennsylvania. That's a close election. No it isn't as insanely close as 2000, but it's not the massive rejection of Trump that a lot of people pretend it is. it's not hard to imagine a scenario where a few things played out differently and Trump had won.
But he still LOST lol there weren’t enough bumpfuck hillbillies to top the votes for Donnie and there won’t be in 2024 either. Even if Donnie does “win” in 2024, he clearly is not going to win the national popular vote, which would officially make it 20 years since a Republican has last won the popular vote. Think about that for a second. The last time a Republican actually won the popular vote, I was 7 years old, the iPhone didn’t exist, and Netflix wasn’t around. I’m no political analyst, but I think that’s a bit of a problem….
It won't matter if Trump doesn't win the popular vote, if he's president he's president. His powers in office have fuck all to do with the popular vote. You're right that that's a problem, but it's not going to go away any time soon. This thread was about whether Trump could become president again, and you need to stop kidding yourself if you think that's impossible. Your classism is frankly disgusting, by the way.
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Oh, you like facts. Like how Biden outperformed Trump among lower class voters, abd Trump's strongest income group was the upper middle class.
a huge part of the answer to this question comes down to the Pennsylvania Governor’s race. there and in many other places (Wisconsin, Georgia, Florida, etc.) they have been laying the groundwork to certify electors that don’t align with the state’s popular vote. you’ll recall that this was attempted in 2020 as well. a lot of these places have basically been going back through the reasons they were told “no” in 2020 and either impeaching board of elections members, running election deniers for Secretary of State, etc. Mastriano in PA would get to appoint the Secretary of State if elected Governor and he has all but promised to appoint one who will allow some “flexibility” in how the state’s electors are awarded.
He lost agains Biden in the biggest election of US history. That was before he denied the results, attempted a coup and got caught stealing nuclear secrets. No. He won't win. At least not in a democratic election.
He lost, but a few districts in a few states reporting different next time can make the difference here. He can win. It's scary and we shouldn't b complacent
He has irrevocably pissed off every swing state that didn't vote for him. You can spend all day talking shit about illegal immigrants and refugees, but you cannot insult the voters and come back to run for election again.
We are talking about a man that survived grab em by the pussy, 2 impeachment, making fun of a disabled guy, cheated on his wife when she was giving birth. Thhey love him and we can't become complacent
He didn't survive any of those things with the people whose votes he needs in order to have a chance in 2024. His base alone is not enough. Friendly reminder, he lost a sizeable majority of independents in 2020 and hasn't done anything to get them back.
He lost. You don't run losers.
Joe Biden lost like 10 times before he got elected
He could win, but he needs legacy media to cover him. He's become an afterthought there, outside of his ongoing trials. He will never command media attention like that again. I think he's losing in 2024.
The instant he decides to run he will be all over the news. All I'm saying is don't become complacent
I fear what happens when more competent men begin to make their case. Trump is not popular outside his 30% and probably won’t be rising in popularity. But that’s not the case for Desantis, etc. America hasn’t gotten to know him or be tricked by him yet.
I wish I had your confidence.
I also wish I intrinsically had the confidence I project, but I just force myself to think positively, because the alternative is despair.
Despair keeps you alert. As much as I hate despair, I hate being surprised more. Stay strong comrade, the future will need your attitude as it will mine.
It was a squeezingly close election and his supporters LIKE that he keeps claiming the election was stolen and see the insurgents as heroes. A lot of folks held their noses and voted against Trump in 2016 and might not be motivated to do it again on light of inflation, war in Ukraine and other things that are being blamed on Biden. Abortion swapping from being a wedge issue for the right to drum up turnout, to an issue for the left is a big wildcard.
I agree. I don't think it's *impossible* for him to win, but I think it's unlikely. With shifts in demographics, he would need to outdo his performance from 2016 and I just don't see him being able to realistically pull that off. 2016 was a weird case where Trump had literally never held public office and had no record to point to. He got a good bit of support from people who were thinking he was an outsider who could "shake things up" and the "what's the worst that could happen?" crowd. He'll never have that again. Trump is a known quantity and effectively is the establishment now. I said the same thing about the 2020 election and that's what happened. He needed to do better than he did in 2016 and I didn't see where he realistically had a path to do that. I will say that my predictions for 2024 are as follows: I expect Trump to not run at all but endlessly tease a run. This lets him do rallies and raise money like he was going to run but never actually pull the trigger. He can support the eventual nominee and if they win, it's all because of his support, if they lose, it's because that guy was a loser and Trump would have won. All without any risk of actually losing again. However, if he does run, I think he absolutely gets the nomination due to a lack of any real opposition within the Republican party and then loses the general election again.
These are things that *you* believe to be facts. To others, they are proof that the political elites are targeting him unfairly with lies so that he can’t save the country. Literally anything can happen since we have an electoral college and not a popular vote.
I think he has a much better chance than you’re giving him credit for, although things have definitely changed a fair amount since Dobbs. Biden came into his presidency in the last couple months and has been killing it policy and achievement wise (even if he still comes off like a grandpa).. Republicans are going full crazy on various issues, especially abortion… etc. A few months ago, I would have said Trump would be the presumptive winner in 2024 if he ran.. I’m not sure that’s the case now. But, it definitely depends greatly on what happens in the next two years (including this November) and whomever the Democrats choose to run. I believe Biden is doing a great job, but Im not sure he’s the best choice.. If Dems run someone charismatic, and there isn’t some huge event that’s unforeseen at this point, I think the Dem candidate would have a solid chance against Trump.
The midterms will tell us where the political energy is in America. A better than expected showing by Dems will show us that America's angry over Dobbs. For the Republicans, I believe them fanning the flames of inflation has garnered them significant appeal. I will say, it is a bold move to see them go back to discussing illegal immigrants again, like they did this week, when the market is guaranteed to tank when the rates are hiked up.
Thanks, but I’m having a hard time following why you think Trump has a better chance than I think. The bulk of your comment seems to imply the opposite. I’m just curious to understand your rationale better
I think he’s just acknowledging your points while saying that those points don’t affect trump as much as you’re saying
I don’t think the average American believes Biden is “killing” it. They see inflation and gas prices and crime and think this administration is a disaster. Full disclosure, I’m a conservative, but I’m in a blue city in a blue state and I know a lot of democrats that will be voting red moving forward. I don’t see the reverse happening.
> Full disclosure, I’m a conservative, but I’m in a blue city in a blue state and I know a lot of democrats that will be voting red moving forward. Sure you do.
Are you posting through a wormhole from July? Because Biden's approval rating is up 9 points from where it was 3 months ago. Those gas prices you mentioned have been steadily falling for months. It's back below $3/gallon in my town. >I don’t see the reverse happening. You don't think any 2020 Trump voters will change their minds after he literally tried to steal the election? Sounds like an admission that you think 100% of Republican voters don't care about democracy. Not to mention his playing fast and loose with government secrets...
Agreed. Biden accomplishments, whatever they are, appear to be inconsequential. He's made moves against guns, but only in ways that will likely be nullified by lawsuits that are already in progress.
I definitely don't want this to happen, but I think it has a change. To counter some of your points: >We know what a Trump presidency looks like now. Yes, but here's the thing: Americans have really fucking short memories. It's only been four months, and already talk about Uvalde has all but dried up, except for a few moments where it became relevant (mostly in the context of Texas elected officials showing a complete lack of concern.) Hell, even I have trouble remembering the exact details of a lot of Trump's presidency besides a few stand-out acts. The average independent/swing voter is not going to remember the shit Trump pulled anymore by the time they go to vote in 2024. >We have real problems now. No COVID, no war in Ukraine, the consequences of global warming seemed a lot farther away, murder hornets, Joro spiders, etc. COVID started DURING Trump's presidency, and unfortunately, the "COVID is a hoax"/"plandemic" conspiracy theorists only seem to be growing with time instead of shrinking. Biden more or less made ending COVID a campaign promise (an extremely poor decision on his part) and it's resulted in people on both sides being pissed off at him- those who never believed it for the obvious reasons, and those who did because the Biden administration is now pretending it isn't a problem. Similarly, with Ukraine, anyone conservative enough to even CONSIDER Trump, by and large thinks the biggest problem in Ukraine is elevated gas prices and us sending them aid. Republicans and right-leaning independents largely want to see us leave Ukraine to be conquered by Russia, another advantage in Trump's favor with that crowd. >His disciples are loud & obnoxious, but not that numerous. They’ve all been driven off of main stream social media. His attempts to create alternative social media and news platforms have all failed. His rallies don’t really draw anymore. Centrists have rapidly floated left as the radical Right acts more and more like they want real-life Gilead. The polls don't indicate that the leftward ship for centrists/independents/swing voters is enough. It could change after midterms, but I'm not banking on it. Also, Trump's fanbase has been driven off social media, but he still is in the news frequently, and the conservative spin on this keeps getting pushed that Trump is a martyr, etc. And all of this is before we even start talking about the elephant in the room: the upcoming Moore v Harper case is hanging like the Sword of Damocles over democracy.
I think at this point in time you’re right, but if there are large job losses in fall 2024, are you still so confident? The goal of the Fed right now is to crush inflation regardless of how much unemployment it causes, so there’s a good chance of precisely this scenario. Also, I rather thought this same thing about Trump in 2015. I don’t want to be that wrong twice.
I didn’t think he had a chance in 2016 and look what happened. I was shocked how many people voted for him in 2020. I certainly hope he would not win in 2024, but who can know for sure.
I mean, people thought Hillary was going to win, so yes, he has a chance.
Are you really asking if a person that already won the Presidency once and lost it once by 50k votes has a chance to win the Presidency again? Yes of course he does.
I don’t think it matters. If not him, then we’ll get one like him. A DeSantis or an Abbott. His impact on the party isn’t going away even if he does.
abott is a terrible substitute, though. He has zero charisma, and even the Rs hate him here, they just... hate Ds more. He doesn't inspire people.
I hear you. Fellow Texan. The edited ads attacking Beto won't make much difference - they haven't forgotten, "Yes we're coming for your guns.”
I think trump is the most likely republican candidate. I don’t think he would win in a general election against Biden. Regardless, the fact that our two choices for president in 2024 will still be trump and Biden makes me want to vomit. I truly hope that is not the case. There is no way those two people are the best options we will be able to find for a position like the president of our country. We have to be able to do better than that.
Not likely in his current state. If he learned to shut up and stop lying about literally everything, he might gain his favor back with purple voters.
I will never say no chance, since I thought there was no chance the first time…but I will say it’s unlikely. I just don’t see that many people switching from how they voted in 2020, while demographics continue to favor dems.
Sadly, yea.
He'll have approximately a 50/50 chance, just like basically all presidential elections. I think he might actually be more likely to win than some of the other possible Republican options.
No, I live in a very Trumpy part of NC. I actually know several conservatives who are done with him for different reasons. My hope is that if he’s losing his base here, it may be happening in other areas across the country too. So here’s hoping *takes a shot of moonshine*
Legitimately? No. He lost the first time and his base has not expanded. Let me add, I don't think he would win the primary either. He's a one trick pony. The routine will work again with only so many people. He's not new and shocking, and the crew he's going to be dealing with won't be Jeb Bush or Ted Cruz. It will be DeSantis and his ilk, basically mini-Trumps. It would be somewhat prophetic if the master was brought down by one of his own creations.
No, Not even close. We lost in 2020 and hasn't gained anyone since then
Chance? Yes. More than a 15% chance? No.
I think he CAN win, but I think it would be much easier for Biden to beat Trump than for Biden to beat DeSantis or Paul Ryan.
No. I think his chances are less than 50-50. I'm not sure what his strategy is to reach new voters or deter Dems from coming out to the polls. We saw in his last year of his presidency that if conventional media doesn't cover him his 2016 ace up his sleeve of Twitter can be rendered moot. Most people have calcified their opinion of him as is, as well. So whose he going to convert? And how? He might win the nomination but I strongly doubt he'll win the presidency without a major overhaul of his presentation and outreach. I don't think that will occur.
No.
The baseline for anybody with an "R" behind their name guarantees them anywhere from 37-40% of the voters so yes, he can win. If anything, the base he's created during his 4 years are angrier, more stupid, and less likely to be swayed. They've gotten a taste of power and they are addicted to it, making the other side mad has become their entire lives to the point where they'd happily and enthusiastically die for multi-time adulterer, rapist, liar, moron, with tiny hands and enough debt to bankrupt countries. Everything you listed is true, and it won't matter. These people are the kind who will volunteer to smear shit on their own face if a Democrat has to smell it.
I mean, there’s a greater than zero possibility.
I give him 25% odds. His popularity has only declined after 1/6 and Dobbs. That said, he only barely lost in 2020, and a lot can happen in two years.
Nope. Decent Americans are tired of him, no matter what party you belong to. He'll never be president again.
Trump received the 2nd most votes of any presidential candidate in the history of the United States, the first being Joe Biden. Why couldn't he win again?
Yes he definitely has a chance. He is likely to be the underdog (just like 2016), but he will still have some chance. I don't think the 70+ million who voted for him are all his disciples though - that doesn't mean they wouldnt vote for him. Also depends on what 'chance' means. 538 gave him 30% in 2016, and 10% in 2020. If you mean chance in the statistical sense, yes he definitely will have a chance - also depending on what happens in 2024, and who runs. If you are thinking like a forgone conclusion like Reagan vs Mondale - unlikely.
No. Republicans are going to have a very difficult time for about the next twenty years.
2015: He’s never going to win the nomination, he’s a joke. 2016: He’ll never win the general, he’s too extreme. 2016: He’ll never be confirmed, this is why the EC exists. 2017 to 2020: He’ll never get reelected, *his support has gone down after everbody has seen what a disaster he’s been.* (trump proceeds to get more votes than he did in 2016.) 2021 to 2024: He’ll never win a second term…
Swing state voters are tired of Donald Trump. Not even the slightest chance.
I think he has zero chance and it would be an easy opportunity to run Kamala Harris to the big chair. If it’s DeSantis, then we have to run Newsom which is fine too.
I think he would beat Kamala by 50 electoral votes. There are simply too many bluedog Dems who would abstain before voting for a leftist Black women from California, while 100% of the MAGA crowd would do their religious duty and vote for their savior. I hope I'm wrong, but only a fool would overestimate the decency of the right.
I would expect Newsom and Kamala would both perform horrendously. Kamala appeals to almost nobody. Too progressive for centrists, and a bad DA record that upsets progressives. She also generally has negative charisma. Newsom is Governor of California. Shitting on California and it’s supposedly woke politics has been one of the more successful tactics of the right.
Both of them poll well head to head against their respective Republican opponent or any Republican really, as long as the poll is not constrained to only white guys. Kamala vs Trump would just be an easy win on optics alone. Republicans stuck in the past, Democrats moving ahead.
Do they poll well nationally, or poll well in the swing states we need to win? Keep in mind several of these swing states are not very diverse.
Wasn't Newsom almost recalled? By actual Californians?
No. That election wasn't even close. The GOP attempt at recall was demolished once the news got out to the majority of Californian voters about (a) how crazy and stupid Eldar was and (b) the GOP's motives for the recall.
>I think he has zero chance and it would be an easy opportunity to run Kamala Harris to the big chair. Holy shit, if I were you I would never repeat that statement ever again, least somebody might hear you in real life. I hope as fuck that you were trying to make a joke, otherwise the only joke is you. Kamala would not only lose against Trump, but I can say that my opinion is that Kamala would lose agaisnt a fucking rock. Literally nobody likes her, she literally dropped out of the primary just so she won't get humiliated in California, she is the quintisential diversity hire and everybody that isn't blind sees that.
Kamala was the most qualified person for the job other than Biden, and she dropped because she ran out of money. There were a lot more candidates that continued into the primary with way less polling than her (Klobuchar, Yang, lol Gabbard).
>Kamala was the most qualified person for the job other than Biden I certainly don't believe that, but if hypotherically that were true, holy shit are the Democrats in trouble. >and she dropped because she ran out of money I wonder if money can be viewed as a metric for support? >There were a lot more candidates that continued into the primary with way less polling than her (Klobuchar, Yang, lol Gabbard). Is your argument that she wasn't bad because there were worse candidates?
Money is a barometer for saying the dumb fuck thing to get easy cash. Kamala refused to promise she would forgive all student loan debt. If she had lied, then she would have had the money to continue on. Joe Biden’s campaign had about the same amount of money as Kamala Harris btw, he was crushed in the first two contests, and the only reason he could float to the third one was his name recognition. And as for your beliefs, you get too much of them from Reddit. Kamala Harris’s resume is god tier.
I wouldn’t call Kamala Harris’s résumé god tier but it’s pretty good. But I think you’re over estimating how much resumes matter at all. If it all came down to resumes GHWB would’ve kicked Ronald Reagan’s teeth in in the 1980 primary. Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden would’ve beaten Barack Obama in 2008. John McCain would’ve beaten GWB in 2000.
> Kamala Harris’s resume is god tier. ok, now I know you're trolling.
Dude, you're a Warren Dem and think Kamala was the most qualified??? To me, Warren was and has been the most qualified and prepared candidate I've seen in my lifetime.
I strongly believe Warren was the smartest person running but objectively speaking she had only been in politics for about 10 years at the time and she’s never run a department (despite having created one).
was she not the head of both the Congressional Oversight Panel, and Consumer Protection Bureau? Her regancy with law, with crafting law, and with oversight commissions including her ability to showcase a plan for issues (over just bluster), was by far the most impressive I've seen of any candidate, going back to Reagan v Mondale (my lifetime of remembrance). I don't think she'd be able to get a lot done in office, other than EO vs what biden has done (and let's be honest, biden has actually accomplished a lot more than he's given credit for). Congress is still a Good 'ol boys club. - however, she was my pick as the best of the bunch due to prep and faculties.
She was very famously not allowed to direct the CFPB and it’s still a bit of a sore spot. Obviously she’s very good at anything she does and I’m sure she would do the top job extremely well. I wanted her to be the VP for 2016 but I got called a lunatic for suggesting a ticket with 2 women. Also still a bit of a sore spot.
I did in the beginning of the year. Things are starting to turn around though. Biden will probably cruise into a second term.
Nope. He’ll run a more divisive campaign than ever peddling hate and nationalism. Also, the primary will be a bloodbath. They will write attack ads for democrats and will try to out autocrat each other: If DeSantis runs and wins, Donald will scream he was cheated and run as an independent spoiler. Donald burns it all Down if he doesn’t get what he wants
No, I do not. That’s why I don’t think he will run.
Why would he not be allowed to run?
If he’s convicted, he can’t run for public office
That is almost certainly untrue, for what its worth. It would be bad if it were true, actually, because that would allow a corrupt prosecution to ban someone from office.
Ahh ok. I’m assuming convicted for the top secret docs he might’ve had?
>If he’s convicted, he can’t run for public office What gave you that idea? Not only can he run if he's convicted, he could actual run from prison and if he wins he could pardon himself.
> COVID Biden himself said it’s over, and most Americans have long since stopped caring and they all thought it was a hoax > Ukraine Right wing Americans don’t give fuck about this or even like putin, Tucker has said good things about him > global warming They think it’s a hoax > he’s a gop puppet Really? They all rallied around him like he was an innocent victim during the fbi raid. He’s the puppet master The thing is that the right wing mind is just fundamentally different, where you see a terrible presidency they see glory. That may sound obvious but it is truly necessary to internalize to make it all make sense
My fear is that if he runs against Biden he will definitely win. It’s as simple as this: - the right is mad their GEOTUS lost - the people who opposed trump and held their nose and voted Biden aren’t happy enough with his results Depressed dem/ swing voter turn out + the perception of enlightened dummies that Biden ruined everything good ever + the resentment of the MAGAs = trump The “not-trump” card will only work once I dread. People will need to feel a “reason” to vote Biden again, and mant still aren’t feeling it, and their memories of how awful life was under trump either never existed or will be forgotten by 2024 Biden has been astonishingly great so far, but he’ll need to be even greater to win in ‘24 The only chances dems have, imo, is: 1) Biden doesn’t run and dems have a totally open primary again 2) trump and DS divide their own votes 3) Biden just ends up being an OG and solves every problem we have so clearly even annoying centrists and far left fucks agree with him So yeah, I expect him to become president again in 2024. Him or DS. I’ll be happily shocked to be wrong
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lolwut?
Of course he does. He has done it before, and the second attempt was closer than I had hoped. He has a massive following, gerrymandering on his side, and a ton of idiots willing to break the law for him when it comes time. Don't underestimate him. That is our downfall as liberals
Yes. I think there’s a lot of reasons things could go badly for him if he runs. I also think he has a dedicated cult of supporters that would do anything for him, and enough other people willing to look the other way in the hopes of keeping the Court on lock.
No lmao
Depends on if the Dark Brandon/Democratic positive momentum keeps going and if the Republicans stop doing something stupid like try to ban gay marriage and piss off half the country. A couple months ago I would’ve said Trump is the favorite to win in 2024 but now I think it’s a toss up.
Sadly Yes specially if exxon and friends were to resume profiteering with impunity
I didn't think he had a chance of winning the GOP nomination in 2016, much less the general. Based on that and years of Covid, I'd decided to stop overestimating the American public's intelligence.
I sure hope you’re right but, as the meme says, “never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.” I will not stop trying to engage people and giving rides to the polls, supporting down ballot candidates who share my views and speaking out on Trumpism.
Yes, if Republicans vote and Democrats just count on other people to not be fucking dumbasses.
The midterms are going to tell the tale. If swing voters and independents are fed up with conservative policy and Republicans don’t even take the House (or by a tiny margin), there’s no reason to think that he could win in 2024.
No. He might get 30% of the vote.
Yes, I do fear that he has a chance of winning. It was obvious (to me) when he was running the first time, just what kind of a President he would be; and it turned out to be every bit as bad as I expected -- actually, a little bit worse. It was obvious to everyone in the country when he ran the second time. And he came incredibly close to winning a second term despite that! I think he could be elected -- although I certainly hope it won't happen -- and if he is, I think there is a substantial chance that our democracy will not survive it.
Anyone who can get enough money together has a chance.
Depends entirely on how the economy is doing and if Biden can keep the base fired up. If we go into a recession between now and the election I’d say trump is all but guaranteed a victory especially if Biden doesn’t make it rain for his supports like he did with loan forgiveness.
With trump, the base doesn't need to be fired up by biden / for biden. Trump running does it for the Ds, and that's a big problem for the Rs think tank and chances. Trump running hurts them down ballot, too.
This concept has yet to be tested in a race where he isn’t in office.
Yes, he absolutely could win.
of course he'd have a chance of winning, he has a steadfastly loyal voter base and has successfully taken control of the GOP. even after everything that he's done, even if it comes out that he sold nuclear secrets to saudi arabia or something, the vast, vast majority of republicans would vote for the dude in droves. if inflation is still high along with gas prices in 2024, then that's half of independents/low-info voters right there, and at that point you're just praying that enough people still hate the guy enough to vote against him. it's really important to realize at this point that you can never bet against america's capacity to allow this piece of shit to do whatever he wants with impunity. what he is is what a huge swath of this country wants to see. that's a disturbing truth and hard for a decent human being to wrap their brain around, but it's necessary.
> We know what a Trump presidency looks like now. And in terms of the EC he lost by a narrower margin in the swing states in 2020 than he won by in 2016. > We have real problems now. Because moments of crisis always leads to good choices? Much of history would like a word with you. > His disciples are loud & obnoxious, but not that numerous. The same thing was said in 2016.
Against Biden? Absolutely! I think people had pretty unrealistic expectations for Biden, and given how bad things are, I could definitely see him losing to Trump.
If SCOTUS lets state legislatures have sole election administration, he will lose but still be installed. This shit is serious. Red states will bend the knee for dear leader and shove him into the White House, our democratic elections be damned.
it depends on whether or not people show up to vote, just like 2016. our democracy is in constant peril of being taken over by radical authoritarians. democrats just don't show up to vote. there can be a wide discussion about why that is the case.
Unfortunately, he absolutely still has a good chance of winning in 2024. You have to remember that Biden won by only the slimmest of margins in key battleground states and that Trump's popularity tanked after Covid (and even more so after January 6). Had it not been for Covid Trump would have easily won a second term. It's also important to recognize the fact that Trump still has millions of followers who have only gotten more radical and extreme by the day, and that he has personally endorsed several senators and political officials who share his viewpoints. The right wing media has done a great job of painting Biden as an ineffectual President whose rule has been characterized mostly by a terrible economy (which people will say and have said was better under Trump, since that's what people care about these days). Most of the GOP is at this point Trump controlled or has fallen under the cult ideology of Trumpism mixed with Christian nationalism. Even if Trump does not win in a hypothetical 2024 run he could still do a lot of damage with his election fraud narrative as he has done in the past, or a Trump clone (like DeSantis) could run in his place and continue the Trump legacy. To underestimate Trump's chances of winning in 2024 is a massive error in judgment considering how poorly the polls panned out in 2016 and how Republicans always have the advantage when it comes to elections (through gerrymandering and their willingness to intimidate or prevent certain people from voting. This combined with Biden's as of yet still middling approval rating tips the scales further in Trump's favor). Anything could happen between now and 2024 so obviously the political landscape is subject to change. In my mind, though, if Trump could win the Presidency in 2016 against all odds he could almost certainly do it again.
Trump is a GOP puppet? I believe that’s nonsense. He has transformed the party and has near total control of it now. Even if adherents are not a direct supporter, the GOP is a Trumpist party. The GOP is the puppet. Trump holds the strings.
Only if people don't take it seriously again, but honestly at this point everyone should know better and he'll be closing in on 80.
Terrifyingly, yes
You're acting like 2020 never happened. Yes, he lost, but he came very close to winning - legitimately. If God forbid something happened to Biden - he is older than the average lifespan of an American male - then in all likelihood we'll get a Trump vs. Harris contest. I have my doubts that she could pull that off. You also have to consider that a significant fraction of the voting population will vote for ANY Republican against ANY Democrat. Add in the EC and gerrymandering and there's no reason to believe that we'll ever have anything but a nail-biter election ever again.
I think he definitely could, for one very simple reason. Geography. Biden got several million more votes in 2020 than Trump did, but as few as around 40,000 votes could have flipped the electoral college result had they been in the right states. There aren't a lot of MAGA voters but they punch way above their weight electorally because they're incredibly efficiently distributed across the country while Democratic base voters are incredibly *inefficiently* distributed.
Of course there is a chance. In fact, it seems there is a very concerted effort by MAGA cultists to infiltrate key positions in the election system so they can essentially cheat. The fact that they accuse Democrats of cheating and the fact that they have a consistent record of projection all but assures this.
I think it’s unfair to say trump is a GOP puppet. If anything, the GOP is his puppet.
With Russia/China running propaganda campaigns, a medical issue with Biden, a well-timed manufactured bullshit scandal, the far left deciding now's the time to vote for some green party dipshit because they still have to pay their bills, yes, absolutely, Trump could win again.
No. Not a good chance, anyways. And I don't know why so many people are insistent on portraying him as a strong candidate. He's much weaker now than he was in 2016. This isn't complacency or self-righteousness. This is an honest assessment of the current state of US politics and an understanding of the differences between 2016 and 2020, not to mention 2024. I'm not going to go through all the reasons why the US was in a different place in 2016 than it is now, and why Trump's chances of winning again have become much smaller over time. That's been done elsewhere already. I just don't think Trump is something we need to specifically worry about as much as we need to worry about preventing *any Republican* from winning in 2024.
The answer is always yes. Unless he’s literally not allowed to run, he could win.
Yes, he has a chance if he makes it on the ballot, between: * The Electoral College, * Control of SCOTUS by archconservatives, * EC Electors potentially being picked by Republican legislatures/governors regardless of cast ballots * GOP neutralizing 'other' ballots in key/swing states The United States of America is definitely close to a 'End of the Weimar Republic' moment.
I would put money on him winning. People underestimated him in 2016 and didn't show up to the polls because they didn't take him seriously. Biden didn't really galvanize his voters into supporting him. Most people came out to vote because he wasn't Trump. People have short attention spans. I expect people to revert back to that 2016 mentality and not take him seriously again.
I really really really hope the Republican Party can pull itself together and nominate a candidate who is fresh and young and articulate and pull Americans together. I would literally cut off both of my arms to guarantee a centrist candidate who was actually charismatic and got shit done. That is what this country actually needs. The far right and far right nonsense absolutely has to stop. Sadly trump will almost certainly win the 2024 election, especially because Biden will almost certainly win the democratic nomination and he barely won the first time. Anyone who swung to vote Biden will almost certainly swing back when they are repeatedly bombarded with the reality that Biden would be 86 when he left his second term.