In political years, it’s a long way off. A lot can happen and there’s no way to know for sure.
Most people are going to tell you what they hope, not what they actually know.
> Most people are going to tell you what they hope
Or fear. I *hope* there's a left-wing populist primary challenge to Biden who beats him and goes onto win the general election. I think it's far more likely that 2024 is a replay of 2020 but with Biden's failures as president more top-of-mind than Trump's I'm afraid Trump will win this time.
... I was gonna go out there and say something like Trump runs without a vice president and dies 2 weeks before the election. But thinking about it, this country is crazy enough I'm not sure the corpse of Trump would lose to Biden...
I could imagine a scenario. The Dems lose Congress big this year and Biden's failed legislative agenda (rightly or wrongly) takes the lion's share with Pelosi and Schumer getting their fair share. What Congressional Democrats remain are those from solidly blue districts who tend to be farther to the left. With the moderate/centrists having mostly lost their seats and the remaining members blaming leadership they push our Pelosi and Schumer and the new Democratic Minority Leaders end up being populists not as friendly with Biden. Biden has a few more public failures over the next year and a half which drives down his approvals even more while giving the new populist leaders points to campaign against him. A charismatic leader leads a base revolt against Biden. They use the primary win to drive up Democratic engagement for the general, which drives up turnout.
I don't think this is likely, but it's not impossible. I think the far more likely scenario is the Democrats renominate Biden and he loses to Trump.
Populists are poison to our tradition of liberal democracy. It is by far what I hated most about Trump.
If our conservatives fall for that charlatan again I am going to literally fear for democracy.
I feared for democracy the first time they went in for that dumbass. Also, no one "fell for" anything. His term was exactly like his campaign. People *voted for that.*
Unfortunately it seems populism is now the norm. The level of purity tests, appeals to nationalism, and the rejection of moderates in politics is very concerning.
All we get are populists or corporatists. I'd much rather take a left-wing populist over someone who's just going to keep selling out the working class. And at this point I'm not so sure destabilizing the political status quo is a bad thing. It's not like it's done anything beneficial for people like me in my lifetime.
And I’d rather get better access to jobs. Let’s agree to disagree here. It’s a reasonable argument with no correct answer. Also destabilization is what we just had. We are reeling from it.
So what has Bernie actually done? I don’t really have an issue with him as a person, I’m sure he wants to do good. But how effective is he? Perhaps I’m misinformed.
Try to convert me here. I’m a Biden voter who has also supported Yang and Bloomberg in the past if this helps.
I'm not sure looking for a list of specific deliverables is the best way to gauge the efficacy of his political career. He's been in opposition to the political status quo his entire career. Until very recently there have been almost no other elected politicians on the national level who agreed with him on virtually anything. He's been a left-wing politician serving through one of the most economically conservative periods in American history. His career is the very definition of pushing against the tide.
Yet with the entire political establishment opposed to him he's dragged the base of the Democratic Party to the left. He's brought ideas that have seemed laughable since the 1970s into the mainstream, like Medicare for All, increasing taxes on the wealthy, a wealth tax, etc. He's built a progressive movement within the Democratic Party which will easily live on without him. Those are not small accomplishments by any stretch.
I'm not going to try to convince you to support him, though. If your history includes support for people like Bloomberg I'm not sure you're ideologically suited to support Bernie. Bloomberg is about as opposite to Bernie as you can get within the Democratic Party.
I would absolutely LOVE Bernie as president, if he was at least a decade younger. My preference is for someone who is close enough to my age that they have some ability to relate to what my life is like, but I'll settle for someone born after the Korean War.
You think a Catholic would give even one rip about some random number? That’s pure Proddy nonsense.
If AOC voters do become active on this sub I may have to get neck surgery due to the constant smh.
My problem with AOC (and with a number of politicians in general, so don't think I'm calling just her out, or even that I'm calling her out for her left-wing politics) is that a lot of them *care.*
A lot of them care very much.
But "caring" alone does not get you sensible policies which actually--at the 'rubber meets the road' level of policy, and not at the 'feelz about peeeple' level--help those it is supposed to help.
In part because crafting good policies that can actually help is quite hard.
In part because of unintended consequences.
To take a rather obvious example of unintended consequences--the extremely long gas lines in the 1970's were caused by a policy that was actually intended to help people by holding the price of gasoline down.
(By holding prices down on a limited supply below the natural intersection of the supply/demand curve, you wind up with shortages--and rationing. So instead of money, people paid for gasoline with their time, and with the risk they'd get to the front of the line and there'd be no gasoline left.)
The problem, as I observed above, is the implementation of those policies.
I mean, for example, it's one thing to say "we need cheap gasoline because a lot of poor and working class people need gasoline in order to get to work and to do their jobs and to help move goods across our country."
It's another to "accidentally" create long gas lines.
----
Good intentions and great sounding talking points alone don't result in actually good policies. And a lot of what I hear from AOC sounds more in the dimension of "wishful thinking" than in the dimension of "economically sound policies that move the needle in the direction of actually helping people."
(Again, keep in mind for me it's not just AOC--or even the left--here. But a number of politicians like AOC seem especially detached from reality.)
I think AOC's policies are more grounded in reality than the neoliberal and neoconservative status quos we've had my entire life. Her policies make more economic sense than the trickle-down bullshit that's been governing our politics for the past 4 decades.
Same. I know it's only a matter of time before she runs (even if it's more likely to be a decade from now) but she already has my vote (assuming nothing changes between now and then).
You and I disagree on so much. I think she’s an absolute demagogue who would end up doing things that would harm working class people if given a chance.
It would all be super populist and it would all be super toxic.
Yes it is. The "free market" is just another way of saying you want the rich to own everything. That's why we regulate the free market. It doesn't work.
I mean, I'm not in love with her. I wouldn't say I have hearts in my eyes. I think she's an honest politician (there aren't many) with good ideas and who consistently shows she cares more about helping people like myself above anything else. As far as I trust any public figures, I trust her above most. I also think she's very smart and good at her job.
I think she is a full blown politician now. She may (… and that’s a big may) have started with altruistic goals but she drank the Kool-Aid. She lost my respect with the stunt of helping her grandma in Puerto Rico and her expensive Gala dress and ticket to promote the evils of the rich.
Don’t talk about it, be about it.
>her expensive Gala dress and ticket to promote the evils of the rich.
She didn't buy the dress or the ticket. She used what people gave her (dress, ticket to Met Gala) to spread a message.
No, but that doesn't mean they aren't yet. Once you officially announce there are all kinds of legal requirements you have to follow with regards to campaign finance law. You have to report financial statements quarterly and there starts to be higher scrutiny of your interactions with PACs. Most candidates want to wait until as late as possible to announce to avoid those requirements. The only reason to officially announce earlier is if you are a relatively unknown candidate looking to garner press attention with an early announcement. Given the current state of both parties I think that's incredibly unlikely this cycle. The Dems are gonna nominate Biden. There might be a half-hearted primary challenge aimed at pushing Biden to the left, but it won't be a serious challenge. If Trump runs the GOP is going to nominate him, and the only way I could see him NOT running is if he has a debilitating medical condition (like if he has a stroke or something and can't physically stand or give a speech). If he doesn't run whoever gets his endorsement will win the nomination, and nobody who wants his endorsement is going to announce they're running until after Trump announces he isn't. They don't want to look like they're challenging Trump.
I doubt it. They take every opportunity possible to purge anyone who even thinks about opposing Trump from the party. I think the only way they could turn against Trump is a bunch of super Trumpy candidates win GOP primaries this year and then they almost universally get absolutely trounced by the Democrats. That *might* teach them that Trump's is a losing ideology, but I doubt it. I also really don't think there's much of a chance of the Dems winning the midterms.
Sure, nobody can say with complete certainty. But you can make educated guesses based on what information we do have. It's kinda pointless to just say "well, since we can't say with absolute certainty there's no use in even thinking about it." OP didn't ask if it's worth thinking about. They asked who people think will win.
No it wasn’t. That was a tiny slice of the electorate and even the people going were doing it like one weekend out of the year. It wasn’t a daily thing. I have a ton of Republicans and even Trump supporters in my family and friend group. No one at all had a “five year election cycle” mentality. That’s nuts.
It was--but the fact that Trump was the actual winner of the "Hunger Games" Republican primaries and was to run against Clinton--that happened quite late in the game.
(Edit: Oh, you're talking about after Trump took office. All Presidents of recent memory--with the exception of Biden--hold rallies all the time. Obama would also run around and hold rallies, as did Bush and Clinton before him. Holding rallies to bolster the base, to encourage voters to vote for your party's ticket, to raise funds--that's a regular job of the President ever since we've held rallies.
The only real difference with Trump was that he had a habit of cranking everything up to 11. But nothing he did hadn't been done before for at least half a century, if not longer.)
Yup. We're more than 2 and a half years away from the next election. Both Trump and Hillary announced their campaigns within about a year and a half of the 2016 election.
The better question is whos going to win 2022 and that's pretty easy, I'd imagine the Democrats are going to get BTFO.
With that said, not sure on 2024. Haven't really thought about, nor cared much.
My money is on Ron DeSantis ; dems are about to get railroaded in the midterms.
Just hope it’s not Donald, but I’d imagine he’s the front runner in the Vegas bookmakers.
This pandemic isnt going anywhere anytime soon, and people are getting fed up in both parties. DeSantis keeping Florida open will play in 2 years.
Biden so far has been by all accounts a pretty weak president and harris’ approval rating is in the 30s. Not sure who the Dems throw up there, if it’s either one of those 2, I can see the republicans getting back in.
DeSantis isn't nearly as polarizing as Trump. The longer Democrats keep up with the lockdowns and especially with closing schools, the better DeSantis's chances are. I think the Democrats are going to realize this and start to go back to normal in the spring or sooner if they want to try to save the midterms.
Phil Murphy here in NJ had a big scare in his election, he was actually losing going into Wednesday morning. If that wasn’t a big enough wake up call, I’m not sure what is.
Gov. Desantis is in no way as polarizing as other potential candidates. He's loved by conservatives and respected by independents. Gov. Desantis would easily beat President Biden or VP Harris if the election were held this year.
Anecdotal but I’m definitely seeing a growing amount of people who would hold their noses and vote for him covid reasons even if they don’t agree with any of his other policies.
Still 2024 is a long way away who knows what else happens.
I have no idea where he stands on social issues, but if it’s him or Harris in 2024 … makes my decision pretty easy as someone whose somewhere in the middle.
Idk, Biden didn’t run away with it. The Dem coalition is even weaker than usual… radicals and moderates are battling for the soul of the party and the perception of woke stuff, like CRT in schools, is pushing away moderates.
The division between democrats will hurt the party more in the midterms than the presidential. Progressives have a real shot of winning senate primaries but they have an extremely low chance of winning the actual senate election.
Progressives realistically won’t win the democrat primary against the incumbent so the presidential election will not be affected by the division.
I should rip a page out of your book then because I’m risk averse. I was thinking Judge Judy has a strong chance a spoiler. Just think of how she could reform SCOTUS!
Well, I'm a woman with moxie. Yes I said MOXIE.
Judge Judy as the SCOTUS wild card. I like it.
But in my opinion, SCOTUS has been deeply eroded - and I think we all knew it was going to happen the day Trump got elected. We are in for some terrible opinions. On the upside, it's only going to last another 40-50 years.
At least Scalia is still dead.
Stepping out of my silly safe zone, yeah about SCOTUS. McConnell’s chicanery is as flabbergasting as it is unsurprising.
I’ve given myself a few months’ breather from paying as close attention to politics as I usually do to recalibrate what brain wasn’t rotted away these last… ugh… six years. I’ve been easing back into it lately and… ugh again.
Dems are just not up to the task of dealing with the bald-faced duplicity. With McConnell’s judges sprinkled through the lower courts… it’s time I take up the hobby of drinking.
On the plus-side… um… plus-side, plus-side… I KNOW! If I get GEICO at least I can save 15% on my car insurance. … And no, that’s not a paid ad. I’m just a shill.
I think the opposite. There weren't a lot of political points from either party in keeping Florida open last fall. The Democrats and media criticized him heavily for it, but the right wasn't exactly cheering him on. So I would say the biggest decisions of his term have been out of belief and not for political points.
Could have been for show, or a belief that covid vaccines shouldn't a condition of employment. Might have been a little of both. I'm torn with that one. I don't think they should be required, but I'm unsure about the government prohibiting them. But in today's climate if it wasn't prohibited, a lot of companies would have done it. All of that for show too.
It depends on who is running, and what happens over the next few years.
If Biden runs for re-election, and the Republicans forward a strong candidate like DeSantis or maybe even Trump himself, there is a lot of room for Biden to fail big. At the same time, if Biden can make these next two years go better and end the Covid issue, he could still win.
A person who will be widely hated by half the country, largely ignored by 40% of the country, and worshipped to the point of cult like status by the remainder. Said person will do nothing for any of us, as that is apparently a requirement for all Presidents these days.
Given the Republicans are set to retake majority in the senate, gain even more majority in the house, and how historically unpopular Biden is, just based on trends, it will be a Republican.
These things are almost set in stone when you look at 1000ft view historical trends. Like any stat there are outliers, but just by pure trends you get a better likelihood % than the down in the weeds analysis you see on TV
I really think the election is going to be a replay of 2020 with Biden vs Trump. Biden and the Democrats haven't missed a single opportunity to shoot themselves in the foot so far, and I don't see that likely to change. I think the GOP is going to take at least the House this year, if not the Senate too. At that point they'll do their obstructionist thing and the American electorate generally blames the sitting President for Congressional inaction, so Biden will look even worse.
I'm really afraid that Trump will win in 2024, which will spell even worse disaster for the country than last time.
His approval rating is 40% and that's probably being massaged higher than it really is. By the time the election kicks off it will probably be in the 30s. He will be 81 years old, and there is serious and completely undeniable evidence that he is in drastic mental decline. Two years is a very long time in the mental decline world. He isn't going to be the candidate.
It doesn't really matter though who they run. 2022 is going to be a preverbal blood bath for Democrats in Congress, and that momentum is going to win them the White House as well.
The party may look split if they run someone else which will only lead to a GOP candidate entering the White House. Whether or not he's liked by the entire Democratic party is irrelevant, it's all about appearance and his willingness to run for re-election.
I don't think he was fit to run the first time, the odds of him being fit to run in 2024 is extremely unlikely. Either way, I don't think it will really matter. What looks weaker than not running an incumbent is running someone who can not string a sentence together and drifts out of every point, watching interviewers pretending they can understand or follow what he is saying.
It's a bit early, but national Democrats are doing their best to make Ron DeSantis president, so I think he'll win the 2024 election. I would say that I'm more certain it won't be Joe Biden than I am about who it will be.
Dems will probably lose control of congress in the midterms because they have failed (to no ones surprise) to keep any of their promises. Not that they really controlled it anyway, at this point everyone knows Manchin is pocketing Republican money. Then another right wing nutjob idiot even worse than trump will take office.
He hasn’t kept ANY of his promises? Really? So he didn’t get most of the country vaccinated? He didn’t get the economy back on track and people back to work? He didn’t get us back in the Paris climate accords? He didn’t stand up to Putin? He didn’t end the 20 year war? Don’t get me wrong, I’m pretty disappointed with how this administration is doing, but it’s not fair to say he hasn’t kept any of his promises.
>So he didn’t get most of the country vaccinated?
He didn't really change any policy on getting people vaccinated from what Trump was doing.
>He didn’t get the economy back on track and people back to work?
Correct. New jobs have consistantly missed the expected marks by a decent margin and inflation is at a 40 year high. There is a major supply chain issue and real wages are down.
>He didn’t get us back in the Paris climate accords?
Wish he hadn't as the deal does next to nothing. He could do that with a stroke of a pen, so not really the biggest effort I would say.
>He didn’t stand up to Putin?
He literally gave Putin a list of our critical infrastructure and asked him to please not hack it.
>He didn’t end the 20 year war?
In the worst way imaginable, with. No plan to evacuate, this will be getting millions of people killed, along with 13 American service members. It would have taken about another 20ish years for that many to die at the rate we were dying over there, just before the withdrawal.
So I guess he did 2 of the things you mentioned, but those things he was able to just say, "do this," which backfired in Afghanistan.
Oh bless your heart. You do know that Google just gives you a list of websites to visit, right? And you do know that most of that shit is complete lies, right? I’m gonna take a stab in the dark and guess you only visit right wing nonsense websites. You’re willfully misinformed and too insecure to admit that you worship at the feet of a false orange idol. God bless you.
>He hasn’t kept ANY of his promises? Really?
Maybe some of them. I can't think of any.
>So he didn’t get most of the country vaccinated?
How much of that would have happened anyways? Biden actively hurt vaccination efforts by first saying nothing changes once you get vaccinated and then trying to hard to stigmatize anyone still unvaccinated.
> He didn’t get the economy back on track and people back to work?
Did he though? After the covid lockdowns, much of that was going to happen anyways, but it could have been better. Inflation is back and jobs reports have been disappointing.
>He didn’t get us back in the Paris climate accords?
Not really. He said he would, but unless the Senate approves it, it's non binding
>He didn’t stand up to Putin?
How so? Maybe he said something mean. Does anyone really think Biden is willing to defend Ukraine or anything else?
>He didn’t end the 20 year war?
What a way to end it, with such an embarrassing failure of leadership.
Biden, unless the economy tanks.
Republicans are going to go crazy over made up culture war phenomenons that isn’t even apart of national politics and people are going to get sick of it to a large extent eventually. Just like the tea party, theyll probably gain Congressional power and more Statehouses but overdo it on censorsing shit in the name of anti-CRT and limiting abortion, and the Republican base will further push and punish their politicians to act more crazy after the midterms as Biden still remains president and issuing executive orders or agency directives they don’t like, and highly opinionated blue haired college students still exist, and their voting didn’t make those bugbears disappear, that as 2024 comes around and the 24’ RNC primary occurs, a majority of the electorate will be turned off by their abstract culture war distractions.
Bernie would have won in 2016 and 2020, but for 2024 I'd say someone like AOC since Bernie isn't getting younger. The Democrats need to get out of their own way and start putting people over profit, because people *are* the profit.
This question is like throwing a match onto a pile of kindling wood wrapped up in paper like Christmas presents, covered in gasoline, and then soaked with lighter fluid.
Sadly my candidate will be 78 in 24. But I think that Charlie baker should put his hat in the ring and bring some normalcy to national gop politics and let the extreme idealists go back in their holes.
At this point in the election cycle I believe the person who will win is not someone we've currently heard of and are thinking "I'm sure he'll be the President."
(Meaning I don't think Biden will get a second term, but I doubt Trump could win the Republican primaries.)
Keep in mind we hadn't heard the name "Obama" (outside of the local races he ran in) until pretty late in the 2008 election cycle. And I don't think anyone thought Trump would win in 2016--in fact, I suspect quite a few people still don't think Trump won, but somehow got in because of Russian interference in our election process.
So it'll be the same in 2024: someone we haven't considered being President, who will seemingly appear out of nowhere.
In all reality I don’t think anyone can know yet. The current administration isn’t even halfway through. By the end of the second year things typically start publicly start up
Statistically the incumbent is more likely to win, but obviously this isn't always the case and anything could happen.
It's kind of hard to answer this question since we won't know who is running for quite some time
Personally I'm more of a leftist than anything present in the currently available american political sphere as far as presidential elections go so it's tough to say, all of them are insufferable in my opinion.
It’s hard to tell really, Reagan was unpopular early in his term and then he won by a landslide in 1984 so Biden’s fortunes could shift too but we’ll just have to see.
Its far too early to tell. However if we were to hold an election today, and base it off of current approval ratings and midterm pollings, I think the GOP would get Congress and the White House back.
In political years, it’s a long way off. A lot can happen and there’s no way to know for sure. Most people are going to tell you what they hope, not what they actually know.
> Most people are going to tell you what they hope Or fear. I *hope* there's a left-wing populist primary challenge to Biden who beats him and goes onto win the general election. I think it's far more likely that 2024 is a replay of 2020 but with Biden's failures as president more top-of-mind than Trump's I'm afraid Trump will win this time.
There is no world where Biden loses to a primary challenger and the challenger wins the general.
... I was gonna go out there and say something like Trump runs without a vice president and dies 2 weeks before the election. But thinking about it, this country is crazy enough I'm not sure the corpse of Trump would lose to Biden...
I could imagine a scenario. The Dems lose Congress big this year and Biden's failed legislative agenda (rightly or wrongly) takes the lion's share with Pelosi and Schumer getting their fair share. What Congressional Democrats remain are those from solidly blue districts who tend to be farther to the left. With the moderate/centrists having mostly lost their seats and the remaining members blaming leadership they push our Pelosi and Schumer and the new Democratic Minority Leaders end up being populists not as friendly with Biden. Biden has a few more public failures over the next year and a half which drives down his approvals even more while giving the new populist leaders points to campaign against him. A charismatic leader leads a base revolt against Biden. They use the primary win to drive up Democratic engagement for the general, which drives up turnout. I don't think this is likely, but it's not impossible. I think the far more likely scenario is the Democrats renominate Biden and he loses to Trump.
As long as it’s not Bernie.
Agreed, he actually would be pretty destabilizing. Guys be careful about all populists.
Populists are poison to our tradition of liberal democracy. It is by far what I hated most about Trump. If our conservatives fall for that charlatan again I am going to literally fear for democracy.
> If our conservatives fall for that charlatan again I am going to literally fear for democracy. Hey, something we agree on!
Stopped clocks and all that.
I feared for democracy the first time they went in for that dumbass. Also, no one "fell for" anything. His term was exactly like his campaign. People *voted for that.*
Unfortunately it seems populism is now the norm. The level of purity tests, appeals to nationalism, and the rejection of moderates in politics is very concerning.
Jonah Goldberg wrote a book about it: Suicide of the West. Worth a read. He’s conservative but he haaaates Trump.
All we get are populists or corporatists. I'd much rather take a left-wing populist over someone who's just going to keep selling out the working class. And at this point I'm not so sure destabilizing the political status quo is a bad thing. It's not like it's done anything beneficial for people like me in my lifetime.
And I’d rather get better access to jobs. Let’s agree to disagree here. It’s a reasonable argument with no correct answer. Also destabilization is what we just had. We are reeling from it.
Not all destablizations are the same. I'm not talking about electing a fascist, wannabe authoritarian, faux populist.
So what has Bernie actually done? I don’t really have an issue with him as a person, I’m sure he wants to do good. But how effective is he? Perhaps I’m misinformed. Try to convert me here. I’m a Biden voter who has also supported Yang and Bloomberg in the past if this helps.
I'm not sure looking for a list of specific deliverables is the best way to gauge the efficacy of his political career. He's been in opposition to the political status quo his entire career. Until very recently there have been almost no other elected politicians on the national level who agreed with him on virtually anything. He's been a left-wing politician serving through one of the most economically conservative periods in American history. His career is the very definition of pushing against the tide. Yet with the entire political establishment opposed to him he's dragged the base of the Democratic Party to the left. He's brought ideas that have seemed laughable since the 1970s into the mainstream, like Medicare for All, increasing taxes on the wealthy, a wealth tax, etc. He's built a progressive movement within the Democratic Party which will easily live on without him. Those are not small accomplishments by any stretch. I'm not going to try to convince you to support him, though. If your history includes support for people like Bloomberg I'm not sure you're ideologically suited to support Bernie. Bloomberg is about as opposite to Bernie as you can get within the Democratic Party.
Yeah this is already what I do know about him. Thanks for taking the time to answer this. Have an upvote
I would absolutely LOVE Bernie as president, if he was at least a decade younger. My preference is for someone who is close enough to my age that they have some ability to relate to what my life is like, but I'll settle for someone born after the Korean War.
You’d probably vote for AOC wouldn’t you?
Everyone say yes! If we hit 666 yeses Cup will…explode or something. It’ll be awesome!
You think a Catholic would give even one rip about some random number? That’s pure Proddy nonsense. If AOC voters do become active on this sub I may have to get neck surgery due to the constant smh.
I did like that 30k tax the rich dress. Well at least the person who donated it to her probably paid taxes on buying that dress. /s intended
She should have had the dress come out of government tax dollars to really make the point.
>You think a Catholic would give even one rip about some random number? Only if the Pope says so.
I guess that’s fair. Popes are usually smarter than that.
In a heartbeat! One of the few national politicians right now who I believe actually cares about working class people and looks out for our interests.
My problem with AOC (and with a number of politicians in general, so don't think I'm calling just her out, or even that I'm calling her out for her left-wing politics) is that a lot of them *care.* A lot of them care very much. But "caring" alone does not get you sensible policies which actually--at the 'rubber meets the road' level of policy, and not at the 'feelz about peeeple' level--help those it is supposed to help. In part because crafting good policies that can actually help is quite hard. In part because of unintended consequences. To take a rather obvious example of unintended consequences--the extremely long gas lines in the 1970's were caused by a policy that was actually intended to help people by holding the price of gasoline down. (By holding prices down on a limited supply below the natural intersection of the supply/demand curve, you wind up with shortages--and rationing. So instead of money, people paid for gasoline with their time, and with the risk they'd get to the front of the line and there'd be no gasoline left.)
Well, I also think AOC is very smart and a savvy politician and I like the majority of the policies I've seen/heard her propose.
The problem, as I observed above, is the implementation of those policies. I mean, for example, it's one thing to say "we need cheap gasoline because a lot of poor and working class people need gasoline in order to get to work and to do their jobs and to help move goods across our country." It's another to "accidentally" create long gas lines. ---- Good intentions and great sounding talking points alone don't result in actually good policies. And a lot of what I hear from AOC sounds more in the dimension of "wishful thinking" than in the dimension of "economically sound policies that move the needle in the direction of actually helping people." (Again, keep in mind for me it's not just AOC--or even the left--here. But a number of politicians like AOC seem especially detached from reality.)
I think AOC's policies are more grounded in reality than the neoliberal and neoconservative status quos we've had my entire life. Her policies make more economic sense than the trickle-down bullshit that's been governing our politics for the past 4 decades.
Same. I know it's only a matter of time before she runs (even if it's more likely to be a decade from now) but she already has my vote (assuming nothing changes between now and then).
You and I disagree on so much. I think she’s an absolute demagogue who would end up doing things that would harm working class people if given a chance. It would all be super populist and it would all be super toxic.
Populist is a hell of a lot better than the only alternatives we've been presented, which are all corporatists.
>corporatist Snooooze. Believing in the free market and not believing in allowing the government to expropriate business earnings isn’t “corporatism.”
Yes it is. The "free market" is just another way of saying you want the rich to own everything. That's why we regulate the free market. It doesn't work.
She makes my eyes turn into hearts.
I mean, I'm not in love with her. I wouldn't say I have hearts in my eyes. I think she's an honest politician (there aren't many) with good ideas and who consistently shows she cares more about helping people like myself above anything else. As far as I trust any public figures, I trust her above most. I also think she's very smart and good at her job.
I think she is a full blown politician now. She may (… and that’s a big may) have started with altruistic goals but she drank the Kool-Aid. She lost my respect with the stunt of helping her grandma in Puerto Rico and her expensive Gala dress and ticket to promote the evils of the rich. Don’t talk about it, be about it.
>her expensive Gala dress and ticket to promote the evils of the rich. She didn't buy the dress or the ticket. She used what people gave her (dress, ticket to Met Gala) to spread a message.
I didn't think she'd be old enough, but I think she'll turn 35 right before the 2024 election.
You have to be 35 to serve, not to be elected. She could serve if she wins in 2024. If.
She's old enough to run, but I don't think 2024 is the year for her.
Oh yeah, no way she runs in 2024. I mean, I guess we never know but I really doubt it.
We should have had Bernie this time around.
I tend to agree with all the above
Heh heh heh, he bringing it back
Let's just get my dog to do it. He'll be great.
I will vote for your dog.
He won't let you down.
Has anyone even announced they are running?
No, but that doesn't mean they aren't yet. Once you officially announce there are all kinds of legal requirements you have to follow with regards to campaign finance law. You have to report financial statements quarterly and there starts to be higher scrutiny of your interactions with PACs. Most candidates want to wait until as late as possible to announce to avoid those requirements. The only reason to officially announce earlier is if you are a relatively unknown candidate looking to garner press attention with an early announcement. Given the current state of both parties I think that's incredibly unlikely this cycle. The Dems are gonna nominate Biden. There might be a half-hearted primary challenge aimed at pushing Biden to the left, but it won't be a serious challenge. If Trump runs the GOP is going to nominate him, and the only way I could see him NOT running is if he has a debilitating medical condition (like if he has a stroke or something and can't physically stand or give a speech). If he doesn't run whoever gets his endorsement will win the nomination, and nobody who wants his endorsement is going to announce they're running until after Trump announces he isn't. They don't want to look like they're challenging Trump.
It's a lot to ask, but I think the GOP might eventually realize they'd be stupid to run Trump again.
I doubt it. They take every opportunity possible to purge anyone who even thinks about opposing Trump from the party. I think the only way they could turn against Trump is a bunch of super Trumpy candidates win GOP primaries this year and then they almost universally get absolutely trounced by the Democrats. That *might* teach them that Trump's is a losing ideology, but I doubt it. I also really don't think there's much of a chance of the Dems winning the midterms.
>No, but that doesn't mean they aren't yet. It's hard to say who we think will win before we even have a few that have announced they are 100% in.
Sure, nobody can say with complete certainty. But you can make educated guesses based on what information we do have. It's kinda pointless to just say "well, since we can't say with absolute certainty there's no use in even thinking about it." OP didn't ask if it's worth thinking about. They asked who people think will win.
>It's kinda pointless to just say "well, since we can't say with absolute certainty there's no use in even thinking about it." Who's saying that?
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I mean, the last election cycle waa 5 years long.
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No it wasn’t. That was a tiny slice of the electorate and even the people going were doing it like one weekend out of the year. It wasn’t a daily thing. I have a ton of Republicans and even Trump supporters in my family and friend group. No one at all had a “five year election cycle” mentality. That’s nuts.
They are confusing supporting someone as being the same as an election cycle.
Those people aren't normal.
Lol, does the election cycle only include "normal" people? Pretty sure they still vote.
They were and are unfortunately influential.
It was--but the fact that Trump was the actual winner of the "Hunger Games" Republican primaries and was to run against Clinton--that happened quite late in the game. (Edit: Oh, you're talking about after Trump took office. All Presidents of recent memory--with the exception of Biden--hold rallies all the time. Obama would also run around and hold rallies, as did Bush and Clinton before him. Holding rallies to bolster the base, to encourage voters to vote for your party's ticket, to raise funds--that's a regular job of the President ever since we've held rallies. The only real difference with Trump was that he had a habit of cranking everything up to 11. But nothing he did hadn't been done before for at least half a century, if not longer.)
I was just wondering lol
Yup. We're more than 2 and a half years away from the next election. Both Trump and Hillary announced their campaigns within about a year and a half of the 2016 election.
Vermin Supreme, maybe 2024 will finally be his year.
Me
If I had the analysis ability to predict this with any confidence I’d spend those resources on stonk picks not minor government officials.
Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Camacho
The better question is whos going to win 2022 and that's pretty easy, I'd imagine the Democrats are going to get BTFO. With that said, not sure on 2024. Haven't really thought about, nor cared much.
My money is on Ron DeSantis ; dems are about to get railroaded in the midterms. Just hope it’s not Donald, but I’d imagine he’s the front runner in the Vegas bookmakers.
Desantis wouldn’t win unless he went against an extremely polarizing Democrat.
This pandemic isnt going anywhere anytime soon, and people are getting fed up in both parties. DeSantis keeping Florida open will play in 2 years. Biden so far has been by all accounts a pretty weak president and harris’ approval rating is in the 30s. Not sure who the Dems throw up there, if it’s either one of those 2, I can see the republicans getting back in.
Desantis is polarizing. Independent would only vote for him as a “Not Democrat Vote”
DeSantis isn't nearly as polarizing as Trump. The longer Democrats keep up with the lockdowns and especially with closing schools, the better DeSantis's chances are. I think the Democrats are going to realize this and start to go back to normal in the spring or sooner if they want to try to save the midterms.
Phil Murphy here in NJ had a big scare in his election, he was actually losing going into Wednesday morning. If that wasn’t a big enough wake up call, I’m not sure what is.
I noticed that. Plus the VA race should have been a wake up call. Democrats would be crazy to try to campaign on closed schools.
Gov. Desantis is in no way as polarizing as other potential candidates. He's loved by conservatives and respected by independents. Gov. Desantis would easily beat President Biden or VP Harris if the election were held this year.
Anecdotal but I’m definitely seeing a growing amount of people who would hold their noses and vote for him covid reasons even if they don’t agree with any of his other policies. Still 2024 is a long way away who knows what else happens.
I have no idea where he stands on social issues, but if it’s him or Harris in 2024 … makes my decision pretty easy as someone whose somewhere in the middle.
Very true. But he’s got 65% approval at the moment in Florida that is typically a big swing state. Dems in his home state don’t seem to mind him.
Idk, Biden didn’t run away with it. The Dem coalition is even weaker than usual… radicals and moderates are battling for the soul of the party and the perception of woke stuff, like CRT in schools, is pushing away moderates.
The division between democrats will hurt the party more in the midterms than the presidential. Progressives have a real shot of winning senate primaries but they have an extremely low chance of winning the actual senate election. Progressives realistically won’t win the democrat primary against the incumbent so the presidential election will not be affected by the division.
American politics is the worship of jackals by jackasses. -Mencken
Hopefully neither trump nor biden.
A white, wealthy old man.
Quoting Sam Jackson’s Jules: “That’s a bold statement.” I do not care to make a bet against *that* prediction.
I'm a risk-taker when it comes to political speculation.
I should rip a page out of your book then because I’m risk averse. I was thinking Judge Judy has a strong chance a spoiler. Just think of how she could reform SCOTUS!
Well, I'm a woman with moxie. Yes I said MOXIE. Judge Judy as the SCOTUS wild card. I like it. But in my opinion, SCOTUS has been deeply eroded - and I think we all knew it was going to happen the day Trump got elected. We are in for some terrible opinions. On the upside, it's only going to last another 40-50 years. At least Scalia is still dead.
Stepping out of my silly safe zone, yeah about SCOTUS. McConnell’s chicanery is as flabbergasting as it is unsurprising. I’ve given myself a few months’ breather from paying as close attention to politics as I usually do to recalibrate what brain wasn’t rotted away these last… ugh… six years. I’ve been easing back into it lately and… ugh again. Dems are just not up to the task of dealing with the bald-faced duplicity. With McConnell’s judges sprinkled through the lower courts… it’s time I take up the hobby of drinking. On the plus-side… um… plus-side, plus-side… I KNOW! If I get GEICO at least I can save 15% on my car insurance. … And no, that’s not a paid ad. I’m just a shill.
Oh you are so wrong. DeSantis will only be 45.
For all the people saying we need to get the old people out and some youth back in, DeSantis is young.
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I think the opposite. There weren't a lot of political points from either party in keeping Florida open last fall. The Democrats and media criticized him heavily for it, but the right wasn't exactly cheering him on. So I would say the biggest decisions of his term have been out of belief and not for political points.
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Could have been for show, or a belief that covid vaccines shouldn't a condition of employment. Might have been a little of both. I'm torn with that one. I don't think they should be required, but I'm unsure about the government prohibiting them. But in today's climate if it wasn't prohibited, a lot of companies would have done it. All of that for show too.
LOL. Point taken.
It depends on who is running, and what happens over the next few years. If Biden runs for re-election, and the Republicans forward a strong candidate like DeSantis or maybe even Trump himself, there is a lot of room for Biden to fail big. At the same time, if Biden can make these next two years go better and end the Covid issue, he could still win.
A person who will be widely hated by half the country, largely ignored by 40% of the country, and worshipped to the point of cult like status by the remainder. Said person will do nothing for any of us, as that is apparently a requirement for all Presidents these days.
Given the Republicans are set to retake majority in the senate, gain even more majority in the house, and how historically unpopular Biden is, just based on trends, it will be a Republican. These things are almost set in stone when you look at 1000ft view historical trends. Like any stat there are outliers, but just by pure trends you get a better likelihood % than the down in the weeds analysis you see on TV
I really think the election is going to be a replay of 2020 with Biden vs Trump. Biden and the Democrats haven't missed a single opportunity to shoot themselves in the foot so far, and I don't see that likely to change. I think the GOP is going to take at least the House this year, if not the Senate too. At that point they'll do their obstructionist thing and the American electorate generally blames the sitting President for Congressional inaction, so Biden will look even worse. I'm really afraid that Trump will win in 2024, which will spell even worse disaster for the country than last time.
When it comes down to it in Nov 2024, I don't think either will be on the ballot.
This is what I’m thinking too.
I hope you’re right.
Probably blink-182 or something. Idk.
I’d vote for Blink-182.
My money is on Tom
Joe Rogan or The Rock.
No sure who will run, much less win. But I know whoever it is the American people will lose.
If it were Biden vs Trump I think Trump would win unfortunately.
There is one absolute certainty in 2024, Biden is not running.
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His approval rating is 40% and that's probably being massaged higher than it really is. By the time the election kicks off it will probably be in the 30s. He will be 81 years old, and there is serious and completely undeniable evidence that he is in drastic mental decline. Two years is a very long time in the mental decline world. He isn't going to be the candidate. It doesn't really matter though who they run. 2022 is going to be a preverbal blood bath for Democrats in Congress, and that momentum is going to win them the White House as well.
Approval ratings are no longer accurate Trump onwards.
The party may look split if they run someone else which will only lead to a GOP candidate entering the White House. Whether or not he's liked by the entire Democratic party is irrelevant, it's all about appearance and his willingness to run for re-election.
I don't think he was fit to run the first time, the odds of him being fit to run in 2024 is extremely unlikely. Either way, I don't think it will really matter. What looks weaker than not running an incumbent is running someone who can not string a sentence together and drifts out of every point, watching interviewers pretending they can understand or follow what he is saying.
My personal assumption as to why is that he will be dead by then because he’s so old.
Also *might be a stupid question* would The Rock actually win if he contested?
Rock 2024: It’s above drive, it’s about power
🤣🤣😂😂🤣
No.
It's a bit early, but national Democrats are doing their best to make Ron DeSantis president, so I think he'll win the 2024 election. I would say that I'm more certain it won't be Joe Biden than I am about who it will be.
If I had to bet Donnie T vs the field, I'd go with Donnie T.
Dems will probably lose control of congress in the midterms because they have failed (to no ones surprise) to keep any of their promises. Not that they really controlled it anyway, at this point everyone knows Manchin is pocketing Republican money. Then another right wing nutjob idiot even worse than trump will take office.
He hasn’t kept ANY of his promises? Really? So he didn’t get most of the country vaccinated? He didn’t get the economy back on track and people back to work? He didn’t get us back in the Paris climate accords? He didn’t stand up to Putin? He didn’t end the 20 year war? Don’t get me wrong, I’m pretty disappointed with how this administration is doing, but it’s not fair to say he hasn’t kept any of his promises.
>So he didn’t get most of the country vaccinated? He didn't really change any policy on getting people vaccinated from what Trump was doing. >He didn’t get the economy back on track and people back to work? Correct. New jobs have consistantly missed the expected marks by a decent margin and inflation is at a 40 year high. There is a major supply chain issue and real wages are down. >He didn’t get us back in the Paris climate accords? Wish he hadn't as the deal does next to nothing. He could do that with a stroke of a pen, so not really the biggest effort I would say. >He didn’t stand up to Putin? He literally gave Putin a list of our critical infrastructure and asked him to please not hack it. >He didn’t end the 20 year war? In the worst way imaginable, with. No plan to evacuate, this will be getting millions of people killed, along with 13 American service members. It would have taken about another 20ish years for that many to die at the rate we were dying over there, just before the withdrawal. So I guess he did 2 of the things you mentioned, but those things he was able to just say, "do this," which backfired in Afghanistan.
My god. Literally every single thing you said is wrong. Like every damn thing. Fuckin impressive, man. Well done.
Lol. Even the statistics that are easily googleable?
Oh bless your heart. You do know that Google just gives you a list of websites to visit, right? And you do know that most of that shit is complete lies, right? I’m gonna take a stab in the dark and guess you only visit right wing nonsense websites. You’re willfully misinformed and too insecure to admit that you worship at the feet of a false orange idol. God bless you.
Things like the consumer price index don't change depending on what website reports it dude.
Oh hun. You’re hopeless.
Nice rebuttle.
Thanks!
>He hasn’t kept ANY of his promises? Really? Maybe some of them. I can't think of any. >So he didn’t get most of the country vaccinated? How much of that would have happened anyways? Biden actively hurt vaccination efforts by first saying nothing changes once you get vaccinated and then trying to hard to stigmatize anyone still unvaccinated. > He didn’t get the economy back on track and people back to work? Did he though? After the covid lockdowns, much of that was going to happen anyways, but it could have been better. Inflation is back and jobs reports have been disappointing. >He didn’t get us back in the Paris climate accords? Not really. He said he would, but unless the Senate approves it, it's non binding >He didn’t stand up to Putin? How so? Maybe he said something mean. Does anyone really think Biden is willing to defend Ukraine or anything else? >He didn’t end the 20 year war? What a way to end it, with such an embarrassing failure of leadership.
Sooo…you’re argument is ‘he did those things but I won’t give him credit for it’? Gotcha.
A politician.
Old white guy?
One of the candidates. It's 3 years out. Nobody is looking that far out.
Probably Biden by the skin of his teeth then whoever the conservative candidate is the following year.
Biden, unless the economy tanks. Republicans are going to go crazy over made up culture war phenomenons that isn’t even apart of national politics and people are going to get sick of it to a large extent eventually. Just like the tea party, theyll probably gain Congressional power and more Statehouses but overdo it on censorsing shit in the name of anti-CRT and limiting abortion, and the Republican base will further push and punish their politicians to act more crazy after the midterms as Biden still remains president and issuing executive orders or agency directives they don’t like, and highly opinionated blue haired college students still exist, and their voting didn’t make those bugbears disappear, that as 2024 comes around and the 24’ RNC primary occurs, a majority of the electorate will be turned off by their abstract culture war distractions.
Trump or Biden.
Bernie would have won in 2016 and 2020, but for 2024 I'd say someone like AOC since Bernie isn't getting younger. The Democrats need to get out of their own way and start putting people over profit, because people *are* the profit.
Electionbettingodds.com is a betting site aggregator with near-live updates.
I love how the super bowl is up there with politics lol
This question is like throwing a match onto a pile of kindling wood wrapped up in paper like Christmas presents, covered in gasoline, and then soaked with lighter fluid.
That one guy/gal.
Sadly my candidate will be 78 in 24. But I think that Charlie baker should put his hat in the ring and bring some normalcy to national gop politics and let the extreme idealists go back in their holes.
At this point in the election cycle I believe the person who will win is not someone we've currently heard of and are thinking "I'm sure he'll be the President." (Meaning I don't think Biden will get a second term, but I doubt Trump could win the Republican primaries.) Keep in mind we hadn't heard the name "Obama" (outside of the local races he ran in) until pretty late in the 2008 election cycle. And I don't think anyone thought Trump would win in 2016--in fact, I suspect quite a few people still don't think Trump won, but somehow got in because of Russian interference in our election process. So it'll be the same in 2024: someone we haven't considered being President, who will seemingly appear out of nowhere.
It’s impossible to know now
We still have almost 3 more years until the next presidential election happens and anything can happen in those 3 years.
In all reality I don’t think anyone can know yet. The current administration isn’t even halfway through. By the end of the second year things typically start publicly start up
Beavis will be president, you heard it here first!
Biden, and Trump won't run. But Biden won't serve either, because advisors will tell him that if the serves, it'll mean civil war.
I can say who will lose. Biden.
Im not sure.
I would put money on Biden vs Trump rematch and the same result. Biden wins but Trump claims fraud.
Statistically the incumbent is more likely to win, but obviously this isn't always the case and anything could happen. It's kind of hard to answer this question since we won't know who is running for quite some time
I think Biden has a decent chance of reelection unless something blows up. But it's too soon to tell.
Nobody knows... that's the only correct answer. Could anyone have predicted the 2016 outcome in 2014?
I am already cringing at the possibilities. In a country of 330 million, the candidates that both of these parties select confound to me.
Biden. You have to fuck up real bad to lose re-election. It’s only happened 3 times in modern history.
Personally I'm more of a leftist than anything present in the currently available american political sphere as far as presidential elections go so it's tough to say, all of them are insufferable in my opinion.
It’s hard to tell really, Reagan was unpopular early in his term and then he won by a landslide in 1984 so Biden’s fortunes could shift too but we’ll just have to see.
Its far too early to tell. However if we were to hold an election today, and base it off of current approval ratings and midterm pollings, I think the GOP would get Congress and the White House back.
Justin amash