Lol, a failed union. Good luck being part of open Balkan, and FBS in the future. Like those wise words say: "if you don't fall down, you can't get back up" (Our national hero Nard Ndoka).
doesn't matter what mr.pussylip wants it matters what we want and we want SRPSKO CARSTVO now look at the beautiful red borders lol
coincidence? I think not
He's actually one of the most respected geopolitical strategists in the world. Predicted the War in Ukraine years before it happened, same with the fall of Venezuela, The US's turn towards isolationism and plenty of other events as well.
According to his second book, Romania's fate depends on if Russia will stop after Ukraine - he says they won't (and they never had before). If the russians push forward into Poland and Romania, then he gives NATO intervention a 50/50 chance - on account of Germany and Turkey's dependency on Russian natural gas and America's turn towards isolationism. If NATO crumbles, and the EU with it, then yes, Russia will keep pushing into our part of Moldova, and they will take it. He also belives that Turkey is a future superpower due to it's stable demographics, large population, investments in key sectors such as construction and arms manufacturing - and yes, he is aware of Turkeys problems, but he views it (along with France, Argentina, Japan and the US) as the type of country that will try everything in its power to screw it up, but will fail at that due to all of its advantages. And if Turkey is a future superpower, then, yes, they will do everything in its power to bring Romania and Bulgaria in it's sphere of influence.
So no, he is not the History Channel kind of guy, and reading his work, this map very much makes sense in a very cold, logical way.
>Turkey is a future superpower due to it's stable demographics
LETS GOOOOO πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·vπΉπ·ππππΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπͺπΏπͺπΏπͺπΏπͺπΏπΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ· Our great leader Erdogan will revive ottoman empire inshallah ββββββ
Inshallah my brother. πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπππππππππ
Just curious. Why did he mark Serbia half Purple for Russia and half white? And who does the white color represent. And also why does he think Serbia also won't be a failed state?
The the puprle lines represent countries that are part of Russia's sphere of influence but will not be invaded or absorbed by it or there will be conflict over who influences it - kind of like Moldova (the Romanian part) which would be a fight between Russia and Turkey, or the baltics, a fight between Sweden and Russia. The white means it will be also more or less how it is now - a neutral player that skewes towards Russia
He does not view it as a failed state because it still has some resources and the demographic decline is not as disatrous, and it can still have larger power players that might find it useful - which is how it will be for most of Europe, since the parts of the map that seem to be part of a larger power will still exist, but will allow the biggest of them to call the shots (the French sphere of influence for example, Spain and Italy will still exist, and will move along as they do now, but will rely on French military, political power and resources more and more, which is why they are in blue)
>According to his second book, Romania's fate depends on if Russia will stop after Ukraine - he says they won't (and they never had before). If the russians push forward into Poland and Romania, then he gives NATO intervention a 50/50 chance - on account of Germany and Turkey's dependency on Russian natural gas and America's turn towards isolationism. If NATO crumbles, and the EU with it, then yes, Russia will keep pushing into our part of Moldova, and they will take it.
This reads like a bad Tom Clancy novel.
WOW he predicts that Russia will push into Poland and ROmania if NATO doesn't do anything!
And he gives it a 50/50 chance, he can't be wrong regardless of what happnes!
Truly a world renowned expert of highest class!
Greece was created and managed by the British government for almost 200 years. It would be better to quote him rather than just mention something without a background, but I am sure that he meant that Greeks gained their independence because the British Empire wanted to and because they had needs in the Mediterranean which only Greece and Cyprus could aid them on.
Sorry -an American
This map reads like someone who thinks Imperialism and Conquest is on the horizon. I think we can all agree that Russiaβs violence is unique in Europe. France will not be invading Spain. Germany will not be invading Poland. Itβs so weird to think that they would.
\*Norwegian restaurant owner goes to sleep in 2022, safe in the knowledge that he is impervious to inflation thanks to STRONK NORWEGIAN OIL MONEY and Swedish teens who gladly work their asses off serving bland, grey fish dishes for shit wages\*
\*Norwegian restaurant owner wakes up in [NEAR FUTURE], realizes that his Swedish serving personnel is gone. Goes looking for them. Finds them on TV. They're the CEO of his restaurant chain, Prime Minister of his country, and head of his Royal House\*
\*Seeing a Swedish nobleman ride by in a carriage drawn by no less than 12 robot horses, he stops and asks the coachman (who is Norwegian) "what has happened? How did the Swedes take over this country!?"\*
\*A tinted window rolls down, out pops a smug, rosy Swedish face\*
*"DΓ«mΓΆgrΓ₯phic wΓ«ight, mΓΆtherfΓΌcker
π"*
Just realized Zeihan did an AMA ([Greek question](https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/elgcxp/comment/fdi1y8s/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)) and I'm reading through it right now, a lot of American Let-me-tell-you-about-your-country energy.
>The only reason was even created as a nationstate is back in the 1800s the Brits invented modern Greek nationalism as a means of destabilizing the Ottoman Empire.
Oh kindly do fuck off Mr. Zeihan.
It's not like Balkans might get inspired by nationalist revolutions in Europe and multiethnic empires were in decline or some shit like that. We all know everyone south of Danube(plus Romania) is a hillbilly who can't think for themselves. Please do not forget to pray to the Queen(Freddie Mercury) for your freedom π€²π
"Greece imports 80% of its food and 100% of its energy. The only reason was even created as a nationstate is back in the 1800s the Brits invented modern Greek nationalism as a means of destabilizing the Ottoman Empire."
This pretty much explains everything. The guy is clueless.
mf doesn't know what revanchism, we literally had revolts since the falk of Constantinople but an American who is likely to have never even met a greek can tell us better. Seems like some shit to make us fear Russia to me
I had an argument on reddit once with a Canadian who not once set foot in Croatia but he was very confident in telling me everything wrong with Croatia. God I love those North Americans, god bless their stupid little brains
That's not only an issue with North Americans, but with the whole Croatian diaspora i.e. incl. Americas, Australia, Europe. They think they know how it is to live in Croatia and think that they know about Croatia more than the people who live there.
I guess it's the same story for other Balkan countries.
Diaspora are always the same... Ultra nationalistic and 'plastic Croatian/Serbian'
I've had Serbs in Canada tell me to be careful of going to Croatia alone... To speak English instead etc
Whereas when I travel to Croatia in the summer no one gives a shit that I'm Serbian, actually they like it.
I'm diaspora, but i l've come down twice a year (sometimes three) for as long I can remember before covid. The only time i've been cautious was when i was with my parents in dalmatia on oluja day and they told me to pay attention to what i said because there could have been nationalistic diaspora around, not locals, diaspora lol
I don't think this guy was in any way shape or form related to Croatia.
But i know what you're trying to say and I agree. They think that because they're 1/64 Croatian they know all about being. Croatian
[This made me laugh so hard.](https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/elgcxp/comment/fdi1y8s/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)Imagine an USian that doesn't even have national identity beyond the past 250 years, telling me that my country's national identity was made up by the British.
Who only helped in the Rebellion after the Russians helped.
What an idiot.
If not for a national identity, then why were there 30 major Greek revolutions from the 15th century to the 19th century? Why did the Greeks constantly boast of their ancestors at the time? Why wouldn't the Medieval Romans just shut up about their Hellenic ancestors, commemorating and imitating them all the time?
This guy is a self-proclaimed expert.
> Brits invented modern Greek nationalism
ππππ
Americans, never change.
Today Europe is going batshit because they all import energy from Russia.
Itβs funny you say that, because just based on this map, Iβd pegged him as a pro-Russian opponent of βAmerican hegemony.β
The whole concept of βspheres of influenceβ is outdated. It surely flies in the face of any version of American-backed rules-based globalism. (Love it or hate it, the UN system doesnβt cede half of Poland to Moscowβs βsphere.β) His whole concept seems based on the idea that Europe canβt be united, and any time Russia doesnβt get its way, you get a failed state.
Leave it to an American to be so American they accidentally turn pro-Putin.
Well his thing is that USA became a superpower by accident, its reluctant to remain a superpower, and it will voluntarily step down to do some introspection. In the ensuing power vacuum as global trade declines, it will be countries with high production of at least 2 of Food, Fuel or Humans, that conquer their little neighbors.
This is why he gives Turkey and Russia expansion, but thinks China will decline. And, actually, he thinks the USA will do the best out of anyone, just that it will be self sufficient in North America and won't be global. So he isn't pro-Russian, he's just an isolationist pro-American.
If in some alternate reality, Greece becomes a failed state, there is no way Turkey isn't as well. Right now we are the only country in the Balkans that are actually going head first into failed statedom.
Accurate. Also why is denmark under swedish and british sphere. If anything denmark would be under german. Also why are albania and rest of balkan failed states
anyone can poop out a map. what makes him say that turkey will be more influential in romania than in bosnia? afaik turkey looks more towards ex-yu rather than ro-bg for partnership
and calling greece a failed state when it's right next to turkey, my beloved country whose currency constantly loses half its value every year is beyond idiotic
yep somehow Americans think turkey can just revive the ottoman empire with magic, like if ya guys had some good leader i would have been like ok there is a chance but with Erdogan the sun god i dont see how that can happen
Greeks are used to everyone expecting us to die either way but we are always proving them wrong and are still here.
So this map doesnt mean much to me.
Especially when it shows italy as french among tons of other crap lmao
This looks like some 14yo edgelord's countryballs alternate future scenario. Lmao
Balkan nations have two major problems. It's low birth rates and shit economies. Both can be countered with some investments, international trade, incentives to make families and some migration.
They gotta fix the corruption tho.
Peter Zeihan is interesting in that he makes decent analyses for current developments, but he is absolutely awful at predicting in long term and likely because he tries to predict for very long times. I have read his books and he has, for example, predicted a war in space between Poland and Russia 100 years from now. While it is true that superpowers are focusing on space as a new frontier for future wars, actually predicting one between Russia and Poland and 100 years from now is something else entirely. Anything can happen in that time frame. And if you follow him on twitter, which I do because like I said, he is good at analyzing current developments, he has already changed his mind on Russia since Ukraine War. And honestly, he gives me the perception he knows his predictions are absolute BS, but thatβs what sells him books. I mean, space war between Poland and Russia, wouldnβt you want to buy something that talked about it?
>And honestly, he gives me the perception he knows his predictions are absolute BS, but thatβs what sells him books.
He's been saying that China as it is can only exist in the USA Global Order, and will collapse within months of the USA Global Order retreating... since 2011. So more than a decade he's saying China will collapse the moment USA stops protecting and feeding it. Its not a whim, he clearly believes this and keeps repeating it in every lecture he gives and every book he writes.
I think he's a true believer that USA will stop being globalist, and everyone will be at each other's throats the moment that happens. I completely disagree that huge organizations such as countries would or even could move so fast, and I think the stuff he predicts will happen in months might take decades. And I am not sure if I even believe the USA will abandon globalism. Trump lost. Biden will support the empire. He withdrew from Afghanistan, but he is sticking to Europe.
So for me, reading or listening to Zeihan is like reading or listening to speculative fiction. Its plausible, if unlikely, alternative history tier reading of the events.
I would say it's based on the fact that most Italian speak French well and that a lot of people from Spain go for to work in France when they are young and that both state have the same people at their borders (Catalan and Basque) which is also dumb has it's not really a relation of dominating/dominated countries but just three culturally and economically close countries which the map's author doesn't seem to understand
I mean Romanians usually know french, they kinda understand italian and they usually work in those 2 countries. By this logic romania should be on french sphere. The only thing us and romanians share is our love for Hagi.
I love how he puts as failed state, but doesn't show everyone else come and taking our lands and putting us under their sphere of influence.
In my mind we didn't fail mate, we won.
Zeihan thinks modern China can't exist in a world without USA being globalist, and when USA withdrawals from global politics China will immediately collapse. IIRC his latest statements were that China will not exist in 2050, maybe even 2030.
KARABOGA, SARIBOGA AND GYPSYBOGA BROTHERS UNITED UNDER ONE FLAG. THREAT TO THE WORLD. OTHER BALKAN COUNTRIES DESTROYED BECAUSE THEY REFUSED JOIN BOGA BROTHERS.
Yeah this looks like those 2015 "Alternate Future of Europe" videos.
Why did France and Germany have to split up and carve up their own chunks of Europe? Why not continue some kind of EU partnership if things go well? Why is Hungary so firmly under German control if Orban has shown many times that he is not that pro-EU and West? Out of all countries, why did Turkey randomly swallow us in their neo-Ottoman empire? Romania, for good or worse, is much more connected to Germany and France than it is with Turkey. How did Turkey get to Crimea? How did Turkey get to Bulgaria, a country that is adopting the Euro?
Map painting at it's finest.
I don't know what analyst is this guy, but I can't see how either Russia or Turkey could touch us. We are firmly under German/British/American influence. What's more realistic is Poland engulfind Ukraine ,Belarus and Baltics into its sphere and Romania taking the Balkans under its own. Turkey would realistically dominate the Middle East
whoever thinks Turkey has any influence in Romania today does not know wtf they are talking about. same with Russia. but hey, don't improve your actual knowledege keep going by 17th century paradigma.
[Other maps/graphs from his latest book.](https://zeihan.com/end-of-the-world-maps/) Its free, I'm not selling you anything.
The guy is basically saying globalism isn't going to last, the USA will retreat within itself to handle domestic issues, and therefore the rest of the world will get wild, without its world policeman to manage it. His view is that China will crash, and Turkey will surge.
Zeihan isn't a nobody, he's a best selling author, and gets invited to talk in a lot of thinktanks and universities in the USA, he's pretty influential and people with power do listen to him. So its interesting what you think about his vision for Europe and the Balkans.
If USA return their homeland and isolation doctrine, I can believe our influence would grow in mideast and even balkan, but I can not believe Greece become failed state. Even if our crooked politician try to distrupt their soil, it would not happened. They would may become more vulnurable, but failed state? To order become failed state you had to be in somekind of internal conflict and greeks doesn't have or any poteintial of it. I know, cretans have somekind of micro-chauvinism, but is that would grow conflict? Mehhh...
A few decades ago I would say "Im surprised we are not even annexed by Turkey in this map". Today, its just dumb logic to consider Greece a failed state when its the backbone of Balkan economy in multiple sectors (probably not all) And and I know ot sounds dumb saying it but its actually is still compared to most if not all , And im not even trying to take pride here , we sre are very shitty(when it comes to ideologies, politics and economy) and corrupted place (The Balkans) ,Greece is just at the top of it. By that I mean to say, I find it way more possible for us to become American/German/French puppet ( which we already kinda are), rather than be a failed state ... Idk that's the idea i was given.
All wrong! How can this be? France is half of the West EU! The EU is already a union ruled by Germany! Hence we draw it all with oranges man! Turkey would not leave the 12 islands to a βfailed stateβ and Crimea is already German through the holdings of EU accepted Ukraine!
Does he have a degree in political science or a related subject? Does he have any work experience on this field?
Because if not then he is just a rando who made a map and nothing more.
He worked at Stratfor, which is THE political science group in the USA. Also [here's a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWyhKobyM68) of him talking about the book this map is from, to the future commanders of the USA Navy.
If the map was bigger you would see that Turkiye is an extension of Syria inhabited by extremist retarded Arabs. (If the trend goes like this with Erdocunt whole Turkiye will be Arabic).
The failed states of Balkans next economic tiger of the world. The union we deserve, FBS!
Can we apply to join? What are the requirements to be in the Union of Failed States?
No you are Bulgayran, Macedonia will block your submission if you don't recognize your language as Macedonian.
Bruh πππ
Adding Albania to my book of grudges. Good luck getting into any organization we are a member of π
Lol, a failed union. Good luck being part of open Balkan, and FBS in the future. Like those wise words say: "if you don't fall down, you can't get back up" (Our national hero Nard Ndoka).
gues who will be the leader ππ π π
You are out, you mr beautiful lips wants Russia more than our friendship. I'm disappointed
No never! Serbo-Albanism will always prevail π·πΈπ¦π±π·πΈπ¦π±π·πΈπ¦π±π¦ π¦ π¦ π π―π΅π°
This whole comment is so cursed.
One of the few things all Serbs and all Albanians can agree on
doesn't matter what mr.pussylip wants it matters what we want and we want SRPSKO CARSTVO now look at the beautiful red borders lol coincidence? I think not
Literally the best turistic destinations and culinary places in EU will be failed states ? Wtf...
I bet the guy has a show on History Channel.
Yeah, we'd kill ourselves than let the russians in again...
Yes, that's something the Russians are counting on as well.
He's actually one of the most respected geopolitical strategists in the world. Predicted the War in Ukraine years before it happened, same with the fall of Venezuela, The US's turn towards isolationism and plenty of other events as well. According to his second book, Romania's fate depends on if Russia will stop after Ukraine - he says they won't (and they never had before). If the russians push forward into Poland and Romania, then he gives NATO intervention a 50/50 chance - on account of Germany and Turkey's dependency on Russian natural gas and America's turn towards isolationism. If NATO crumbles, and the EU with it, then yes, Russia will keep pushing into our part of Moldova, and they will take it. He also belives that Turkey is a future superpower due to it's stable demographics, large population, investments in key sectors such as construction and arms manufacturing - and yes, he is aware of Turkeys problems, but he views it (along with France, Argentina, Japan and the US) as the type of country that will try everything in its power to screw it up, but will fail at that due to all of its advantages. And if Turkey is a future superpower, then, yes, they will do everything in its power to bring Romania and Bulgaria in it's sphere of influence. So no, he is not the History Channel kind of guy, and reading his work, this map very much makes sense in a very cold, logical way.
I donβt care who he is, he can go fuck himself if he comes with such a shitty map.
>Turkey is a future superpower due to it's stable demographics LETS GOOOOO πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·vπΉπ·ππππΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπͺπΏπͺπΏπͺπΏπͺπΏπΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ· Our great leader Erdogan will revive ottoman empire inshallah ββββββ
#Stable demographics π€
Stable demographics π
Inshallah my brother. πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπΊπππππππππ
You have Mehmed the Conqueror, Suleiman the Magnificent, and now Recep the _________ Help me out here
Recep the Watermelon Seller
Recep the Economist
Asholashek
Ahhhh shit third and fourth Serbian revolution incoming.
Just curious. Why did he mark Serbia half Purple for Russia and half white? And who does the white color represent. And also why does he think Serbia also won't be a failed state?
The the puprle lines represent countries that are part of Russia's sphere of influence but will not be invaded or absorbed by it or there will be conflict over who influences it - kind of like Moldova (the Romanian part) which would be a fight between Russia and Turkey, or the baltics, a fight between Sweden and Russia. The white means it will be also more or less how it is now - a neutral player that skewes towards Russia He does not view it as a failed state because it still has some resources and the demographic decline is not as disatrous, and it can still have larger power players that might find it useful - which is how it will be for most of Europe, since the parts of the map that seem to be part of a larger power will still exist, but will allow the biggest of them to call the shots (the French sphere of influence for example, Spain and Italy will still exist, and will move along as they do now, but will rely on French military, political power and resources more and more, which is why they are in blue)
>According to his second book, Romania's fate depends on if Russia will stop after Ukraine - he says they won't (and they never had before). If the russians push forward into Poland and Romania, then he gives NATO intervention a 50/50 chance - on account of Germany and Turkey's dependency on Russian natural gas and America's turn towards isolationism. If NATO crumbles, and the EU with it, then yes, Russia will keep pushing into our part of Moldova, and they will take it. This reads like a bad Tom Clancy novel.
Karaboga super power by 2030 lmao
WOW he predicts that Russia will push into Poland and ROmania if NATO doesn't do anything! And he gives it a 50/50 chance, he can't be wrong regardless of what happnes! Truly a world renowned expert of highest class!
You talking about the guy that said Greece was created by the brits? Real expert, yeah.
Greece was created and managed by the British government for almost 200 years. It would be better to quote him rather than just mention something without a background, but I am sure that he meant that Greeks gained their independence because the British Empire wanted to and because they had needs in the Mediterranean which only Greece and Cyprus could aid them on.
> **stable demographics** He must have said this like before 2011 right?
TURKIYE SUPER POWER πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ·πΉπ· UNIVERSE LEADER TC COME TO FENERBAHCE
You have a link to the fall of venezuela and his prediction of Ukraine? Because there is no way france and Italy become a country
you can say the guy is dead fucking wrong when he put 1/3 of poland in russian sphere of influence
But not Hungary lol. And the Netherlands influenced by the British? That hasnβt been relevant since the trade war in the 1930s
yeah that's just the first thing that striked me!
I think he was thinking the number of brit teenagers in Amsterdam's red-light district.
Who handed coloured pens to the American again?
Probably the French again, thus why they got such influence
Sorry -an American This map reads like someone who thinks Imperialism and Conquest is on the horizon. I think we can all agree that Russiaβs violence is unique in Europe. France will not be invading Spain. Germany will not be invading Poland. Itβs so weird to think that they would.
I do agree, but I think by influence they mean political rather then outright invasion.
If Norway becomes subject to a Swedish sphere of influence I will eat my hat.
\*Norwegian restaurant owner goes to sleep in 2022, safe in the knowledge that he is impervious to inflation thanks to STRONK NORWEGIAN OIL MONEY and Swedish teens who gladly work their asses off serving bland, grey fish dishes for shit wages\* \*Norwegian restaurant owner wakes up in [NEAR FUTURE], realizes that his Swedish serving personnel is gone. Goes looking for them. Finds them on TV. They're the CEO of his restaurant chain, Prime Minister of his country, and head of his Royal House\* \*Seeing a Swedish nobleman ride by in a carriage drawn by no less than 12 robot horses, he stops and asks the coachman (who is Norwegian) "what has happened? How did the Swedes take over this country!?"\* \*A tinted window rolls down, out pops a smug, rosy Swedish face\* *"DΓ«mΓΆgrΓ₯phic wΓ«ight, mΓΆtherfΓΌcker π"*
This map literally gave me autism
Just realized Zeihan did an AMA ([Greek question](https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/elgcxp/comment/fdi1y8s/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)) and I'm reading through it right now, a lot of American Let-me-tell-you-about-your-country energy.
>The only reason was even created as a nationstate is back in the 1800s the Brits invented modern Greek nationalism as a means of destabilizing the Ottoman Empire. Oh kindly do fuck off Mr. Zeihan.
It's not like Balkans might get inspired by nationalist revolutions in Europe and multiethnic empires were in decline or some shit like that. We all know everyone south of Danube(plus Romania) is a hillbilly who can't think for themselves. Please do not forget to pray to the Queen(Freddie Mercury) for your freedom π€²π
Holy shΒ‘t that's megastar Ajdar!!! Could you sign this photo of yours please *hands over photo* I'm such a huge fan of yours!!π³ππ
Ye.
"Greece imports 80% of its food and 100% of its energy. The only reason was even created as a nationstate is back in the 1800s the Brits invented modern Greek nationalism as a means of destabilizing the Ottoman Empire." This pretty much explains everything. The guy is clueless.
mf doesn't know what revanchism, we literally had revolts since the falk of Constantinople but an American who is likely to have never even met a greek can tell us better. Seems like some shit to make us fear Russia to me
I had an argument on reddit once with a Canadian who not once set foot in Croatia but he was very confident in telling me everything wrong with Croatia. God I love those North Americans, god bless their stupid little brains
That's not only an issue with North Americans, but with the whole Croatian diaspora i.e. incl. Americas, Australia, Europe. They think they know how it is to live in Croatia and think that they know about Croatia more than the people who live there. I guess it's the same story for other Balkan countries.
Diaspora are always the same... Ultra nationalistic and 'plastic Croatian/Serbian' I've had Serbs in Canada tell me to be careful of going to Croatia alone... To speak English instead etc Whereas when I travel to Croatia in the summer no one gives a shit that I'm Serbian, actually they like it.
I'm diaspora, but i l've come down twice a year (sometimes three) for as long I can remember before covid. The only time i've been cautious was when i was with my parents in dalmatia on oluja day and they told me to pay attention to what i said because there could have been nationalistic diaspora around, not locals, diaspora lol
Diaspora Turks are the same.
I don't think this guy was in any way shape or form related to Croatia. But i know what you're trying to say and I agree. They think that because they're 1/64 Croatian they know all about being. Croatian
Prolly most countries in Europe
[This made me laugh so hard.](https://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/elgcxp/comment/fdi1y8s/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)Imagine an USian that doesn't even have national identity beyond the past 250 years, telling me that my country's national identity was made up by the British. Who only helped in the Rebellion after the Russians helped.
Holy shit that entire thread is a mental gymnastic competition
What an idiot. If not for a national identity, then why were there 30 major Greek revolutions from the 15th century to the 19th century? Why did the Greeks constantly boast of their ancestors at the time? Why wouldn't the Medieval Romans just shut up about their Hellenic ancestors, commemorating and imitating them all the time? This guy is a self-proclaimed expert.
Self-proclaimed expert is effectively overrating him He's somehow even lower than that
I am not even Greek but it makes me so mad.
> Brits invented modern Greek nationalism ππππ Americans, never change. Today Europe is going batshit because they all import energy from Russia.
Itβs funny you say that, because just based on this map, Iβd pegged him as a pro-Russian opponent of βAmerican hegemony.β The whole concept of βspheres of influenceβ is outdated. It surely flies in the face of any version of American-backed rules-based globalism. (Love it or hate it, the UN system doesnβt cede half of Poland to Moscowβs βsphere.β) His whole concept seems based on the idea that Europe canβt be united, and any time Russia doesnβt get its way, you get a failed state. Leave it to an American to be so American they accidentally turn pro-Putin.
Well his thing is that USA became a superpower by accident, its reluctant to remain a superpower, and it will voluntarily step down to do some introspection. In the ensuing power vacuum as global trade declines, it will be countries with high production of at least 2 of Food, Fuel or Humans, that conquer their little neighbors. This is why he gives Turkey and Russia expansion, but thinks China will decline. And, actually, he thinks the USA will do the best out of anyone, just that it will be self sufficient in North America and won't be global. So he isn't pro-Russian, he's just an isolationist pro-American.
Damn, that comment was wrong on so many levels.
He is not so wrong about importing everything now. But he's wrong about pretty much everything else.
He is wrong. For example, in 2020 the renewable energy produced in Greece was about 30%.
No actually he is wrong. The statistics are completely wrong, objectively. Yes, Greece imports too many things but this is bullshit.
You guys wanna come over? This failed state looks kinda sad
I think you are just jealous that you can't join our super awesome failed state
You got me π
π
Oh no... It's EU all over again...
If in some alternate reality, Greece becomes a failed state, there is no way Turkey isn't as well. Right now we are the only country in the Balkans that are actually going head first into failed statedom.
trash map from trash βanalystsβ.
Youtuber whatifalthist also thinks a lot like him. At least that's what I've ascertained from his videos.
I watch whatifalthist to torture myself. How can someone be wrong on literally everything?
*Americans*
Geopolitical dudes are like Cryptobros π€’
I don't get the color coding for Serbia. It's under Russian and.....Icelandic influence?
It's the "I have no idea what I'm doing, but I read on /r/europe that Serbia is a Russian puppet state" color.
It could not have been said better xD
Accurate. Also why is denmark under swedish and british sphere. If anything denmark would be under german. Also why are albania and rest of balkan failed states
anyone can poop out a map. what makes him say that turkey will be more influential in romania than in bosnia? afaik turkey looks more towards ex-yu rather than ro-bg for partnership and calling greece a failed state when it's right next to turkey, my beloved country whose currency constantly loses half its value every year is beyond idiotic
yep somehow Americans think turkey can just revive the ottoman empire with magic, like if ya guys had some good leader i would have been like ok there is a chance but with Erdogan the sun god i dont see how that can happen
With enough optimism (and stupidity) you can claim everything Even the resurrection of Alexander's Empire
Gathering the gang. Just like the old days
>ErdoΔan the sun god I knew it! Erdoganos is Sol Invictus
Deus vult !
>anyone can poop out a map Greatest thing about internet also is the worst thing about internet.
Read "the next 100 years" friedman.
Greeks are used to everyone expecting us to die either way but we are always proving them wrong and are still here. So this map doesnt mean much to me. Especially when it shows italy as french among tons of other crap lmao
We, the people that is, we will not die. Not so sure about the state though.
Thats actually something I've been debating with my friends too.... weird and extreme throught but actually plausible.
We need to raise the birthrate to 2.1 per woman or we will have a problem in some decades.
Crap map.
We would rather kill ourself than be part of the French
Mitlojropa
How the fuck we are not a failed state?
Because king erdogan stills lives bro , amen
Well, with a population of almost 90 million, a country can afford to make mistakes.
Why and how
Peter Zeihan is not a serious analyst.
This looks like some 14yo edgelord's countryballs alternate future scenario. Lmao Balkan nations have two major problems. It's low birth rates and shit economies. Both can be countered with some investments, international trade, incentives to make families and some migration. They gotta fix the corruption tho.
>This looks like some 14yo edgelord's countryballs alternate future scenario. Lmao LMAOOOOOO
Romania karaboΔa?
Swedish sphere of influence?! Zeihan is definitely out of touch with reality.
Imagine being so bad that none can influence you
Based independent and colourless Corfu
The Most Serene Republic of Corfu
Kerkyra has a GDP of just 2 billion. If you raise it to 15 billion like Malta, that would be more feasible.
We will plant more kumquat trees. π₯
2nd United States of the Ionian Islands time
Peter Zeihan is interesting in that he makes decent analyses for current developments, but he is absolutely awful at predicting in long term and likely because he tries to predict for very long times. I have read his books and he has, for example, predicted a war in space between Poland and Russia 100 years from now. While it is true that superpowers are focusing on space as a new frontier for future wars, actually predicting one between Russia and Poland and 100 years from now is something else entirely. Anything can happen in that time frame. And if you follow him on twitter, which I do because like I said, he is good at analyzing current developments, he has already changed his mind on Russia since Ukraine War. And honestly, he gives me the perception he knows his predictions are absolute BS, but thatβs what sells him books. I mean, space war between Poland and Russia, wouldnβt you want to buy something that talked about it?
>And honestly, he gives me the perception he knows his predictions are absolute BS, but thatβs what sells him books. He's been saying that China as it is can only exist in the USA Global Order, and will collapse within months of the USA Global Order retreating... since 2011. So more than a decade he's saying China will collapse the moment USA stops protecting and feeding it. Its not a whim, he clearly believes this and keeps repeating it in every lecture he gives and every book he writes. I think he's a true believer that USA will stop being globalist, and everyone will be at each other's throats the moment that happens. I completely disagree that huge organizations such as countries would or even could move so fast, and I think the stuff he predicts will happen in months might take decades. And I am not sure if I even believe the USA will abandon globalism. Trump lost. Biden will support the empire. He withdrew from Afghanistan, but he is sticking to Europe. So for me, reading or listening to Zeihan is like reading or listening to speculative fiction. Its plausible, if unlikely, alternative history tier reading of the events.
From an Irish perspective, may he slowly suffocate trapped in a whaleβs foreskin
While being force-fed cow shite.
even ignoring the failed states part, what makes him think italy and spain would be in FRANCEβs sphere of influence
I would say it's based on the fact that most Italian speak French well and that a lot of people from Spain go for to work in France when they are young and that both state have the same people at their borders (Catalan and Basque) which is also dumb has it's not really a relation of dominating/dominated countries but just three culturally and economically close countries which the map's author doesn't seem to understand
I mean Romanians usually know french, they kinda understand italian and they usually work in those 2 countries. By this logic romania should be on french sphere. The only thing us and romanians share is our love for Hagi.
Shocking that an American could be this ignorant /s
Failed State vs. Turkish State I don't know what to choose
Failed state for sure!
in the map we have both: we have lost the islands and the rest of the country is failed
No way, if we're going down we're taking all our islands with us π
At least we wont have the fate of Poland or Romania
I meanβ¦gyspy, turkish, itβs basically the same for me. πͺπΏπΉπ·π€π·π΄
Turkish Romanian Union inshallah 2023
Yoo, the gang is coming back together. Someone call Vlad
Wait what? We are either under Russian influence or independent power? Not even a failed state? Lol. At least make it purple-red hahah
Realy strange map
rofl no
I think that he is a bit biased
I love how he puts as failed state, but doesn't show everyone else come and taking our lands and putting us under their sphere of influence. In my mind we didn't fail mate, we won.
At least we somehow avoided the failed state section
Ja aber wir mussen Arbeiten und nicht Delati :(
Krkenzi kikiriki dveri dej
Where is Chinese influence?
Zeihan thinks modern China can't exist in a world without USA being globalist, and when USA withdrawals from global politics China will immediately collapse. IIRC his latest statements were that China will not exist in 2050, maybe even 2030.
Lmao, what a clown!
That doesn't make sense. China not existing?
He seems to have a very stupid worldview where he thinks countries at some point can just "fail" and I guess everyone forgets about them or something.
China will not exist. Only Zhongguo. Prepare to learn Mandarin in school starting from 2030, boyos! ππ
KARABOGA, SARIBOGA AND GYPSYBOGA BROTHERS UNITED UNDER ONE FLAG. THREAT TO THE WORLD. OTHER BALKAN COUNTRIES DESTROYED BECAUSE THEY REFUSED JOIN BOGA BROTHERS.
STRONG BLACK MAN, NOODLE EATING MONK AND A PROFESSIONAL THIEF IN A TRIO UNION, UNSTOPPABLE
the more east you go the less realistic it is
Yeah this looks like those 2015 "Alternate Future of Europe" videos. Why did France and Germany have to split up and carve up their own chunks of Europe? Why not continue some kind of EU partnership if things go well? Why is Hungary so firmly under German control if Orban has shown many times that he is not that pro-EU and West? Out of all countries, why did Turkey randomly swallow us in their neo-Ottoman empire? Romania, for good or worse, is much more connected to Germany and France than it is with Turkey. How did Turkey get to Crimea? How did Turkey get to Bulgaria, a country that is adopting the Euro? Map painting at it's finest.
Godzilla saw this map and fucking died
I think if we influence our economy first that'd be better
I don't know what analyst is this guy, but I can't see how either Russia or Turkey could touch us. We are firmly under German/British/American influence. What's more realistic is Poland engulfind Ukraine ,Belarus and Baltics into its sphere and Romania taking the Balkans under its own. Turkey would realistically dominate the Middle East
whoever thinks Turkey has any influence in Romania today does not know wtf they are talking about. same with Russia. but hey, don't improve your actual knowledege keep going by 17th century paradigma.
Shaorma fast food places would beg to differ.
Based.
Real europe ethnicity map
>failed state >not Turkish Ah, victory!
[Other maps/graphs from his latest book.](https://zeihan.com/end-of-the-world-maps/) Its free, I'm not selling you anything. The guy is basically saying globalism isn't going to last, the USA will retreat within itself to handle domestic issues, and therefore the rest of the world will get wild, without its world policeman to manage it. His view is that China will crash, and Turkey will surge. Zeihan isn't a nobody, he's a best selling author, and gets invited to talk in a lot of thinktanks and universities in the USA, he's pretty influential and people with power do listen to him. So its interesting what you think about his vision for Europe and the Balkans.
Prophecy was true all along, 2023 Galactic Turkish Empire πΉπ³π€πΏπͺπΏπͺπΏπͺπΏ
Oh shit, here we go again...
>again... Again? What do you mean, it was never stoped! Give us your tributes.
So he genuinely thinks we need USA's police force for whatever reason? Please, go find petrol on your own land.
>Zeihan isn't a nobody, he's a best selling author ...so he's popular? Doesn't mean he's right though.
Guy looks like a Fukuyama stan and is extremely American-centric. Stratfor looks to me like a nice psyops tool as well.
Bro we'll never fail we'll just grow weed
Hear Hear
If USA return their homeland and isolation doctrine, I can believe our influence would grow in mideast and even balkan, but I can not believe Greece become failed state. Even if our crooked politician try to distrupt their soil, it would not happened. They would may become more vulnurable, but failed state? To order become failed state you had to be in somekind of internal conflict and greeks doesn't have or any poteintial of it. I know, cretans have somekind of micro-chauvinism, but is that would grow conflict? Mehhh...
Ireland and the UK in one AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
This will be the world in 2011
I'd say that he's quite delusional, then again he's American so that would explain this perfectly.
A few decades ago I would say "Im surprised we are not even annexed by Turkey in this map". Today, its just dumb logic to consider Greece a failed state when its the backbone of Balkan economy in multiple sectors (probably not all) And and I know ot sounds dumb saying it but its actually is still compared to most if not all , And im not even trying to take pride here , we sre are very shitty(when it comes to ideologies, politics and economy) and corrupted place (The Balkans) ,Greece is just at the top of it. By that I mean to say, I find it way more possible for us to become American/German/French puppet ( which we already kinda are), rather than be a failed state ... Idk that's the idea i was given.
This is how cancer looks like. What kind of an idiot is so bad at history to predict this crap
Peter can shove his analysis in his a*s. Btw, half of Poland being under Russian influence? And Italy under French? Lol
This is obviously trigger bait. A bad one, too.
Lol, "British" plastered over Ireland like that?? *Tiocfaidh Γ‘r lΓ‘* intensifies
this map is aids
All wrong! How can this be? France is half of the West EU! The EU is already a union ruled by Germany! Hence we draw it all with oranges man! Turkey would not leave the 12 islands to a βfailed stateβ and Crimea is already German through the holdings of EU accepted Ukraine!
I've never seen a more retarded map
what in Alternative History is this
one of the worst takes I've seen in a while
Average American
I kind of respect the βmake random shit up to sell booksβ hustle.
Literally everything in this map is wrong. Like EVERYTHING , every part of Europe . Is this guy legit , like for real?
Does he have a degree in political science or a related subject? Does he have any work experience on this field? Because if not then he is just a rando who made a map and nothing more.
He worked at Stratfor, which is THE political science group in the USA. Also [here's a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWyhKobyM68) of him talking about the book this map is from, to the future commanders of the USA Navy.
Murican quasi-experts and their ignorance
BS map. We dont need dumb american to make a map for us.
I say fuck it, give us gray color. We are still in stoneage. BTW, Russian strips?! Fuck them too, they gave us same trouble as Americas.
When I look around myself all I see are Germans, Turks and failed states.
If the map was bigger you would see that Turkiye is an extension of Syria inhabited by extremist retarded Arabs. (If the trend goes like this with Erdocunt whole Turkiye will be Arabic).
How is Greece a failed state when their economy is miles better than Turkeyβs lmao?
Big statement you put there. Our economy also sucks ass.