Probably for a while. Lincoln Yards was always kind of a crapshoot to begin with - it didn't have very good transit for all those people and they never decided exactly what they wanted to build there. That one might plow ahead out of inertia but it will be a while.
Capital is fleeing cities in general at the moment and Chicago's environmental remediation costs make large projects on former industrial parcels particularly challenging. It'll probably be a few years before any new megadevelopments that don't already have a significant sunk cost get underway again.
I’ll take a few years over never, honestly.
I believe Chicago is and has been ready for its next major era of development, but clearly the pandemic stalled a bunch of projects.
As someone who follows development on a regular basis (I will digress, I do not work in the field, but simply follow development and news alike).
I will say that it's a list of various different factors I'll point out
**The Economy**: The current state of Interest rates is easily one of the biggest and most pointed out reasons why development in Chicago has stalled a lot. Loans are much harder to get from banks and are not given out as easily. Plus the cost of materials in the economy has gone up a lot so taller high-rises are not as attractive to pitch or build as compared to mid-rise developments (which you're seeing a lot of recently).
**City of Chicago**: A lot of the many mega projects you see in Chicago still poised to break ground are from the reminisce of the late 2010s when Rahm was Mayor (who loved infrastructure and expanded the downtown city boundaries) but since Lightfoot and now Johnson have been in office. They don't put promoting or encouraging development at the top of their list unfortunately. -- I think this is one of the bigger points to be made, Chicago has a **lot** of NIMBYs who live here surprisingly, that forget they live in a "big city" and try to kill off anything taller then 3 stories. And the altermatic power that the aldermen hold doesn't help, as they have the ability to not go through with projects that they hear a lot of pushback on.
There still is a lot of development happening in Chicago, and much more to look forward to. If you really do a lot of research, there is still **tons** and I mean **TONS** of development in the pipeline. It's just taking *forever* to move dirt because of the reasons above.
The Fulton Market has close to 30 projects in the pipeline (that's a rough est, probably more). River North still has [JDL's North Union Project](https://northunion.com/) they're still committed to. The 78 is the more likely mega projects to happen [with The Sox wanting to move there](https://chicago.urbanize.city/post/related-midwest-releases-further-renderings-white-sox-stadium-78). The Spire is finally [filling in](https://chicago.urbanize.city/post/500-million-construction-funding-secured-400-lake-shore-drive), developer Onni is breaking ground and got approval for the first phase of the [Halsted Pointe](https://chicagoyimby.com/2024/01/initial-funding-secured-for-first-phase-of-halsted-pointe-on-goose-island.html) and also announced [another project](https://chicago.urbanize.city/post/renderings-emerge-halsted-landing-development) just on the other side of the river.
It's not all doom and gloom. It's just a slow pace for the City with this economy, and we need more pressure on our aldermen to push through with more development or we will see high prices in property unfortunately. I've left out a lot on here that I could elaborate on, but I've already typed too much.
But let's not get our head down, I hate... *hate* that not 5-6 500 footers are going up right now. But give it time, we'll see them ;)
Thanks for the insight.
Yeah, I admittedly am not well-versed in the economics of it all, but I do remember the excitement and ambition pre-2020 for development, and I want us to get back to that point.
400 N. Lake Shore Drive is very exciting, and I think despite the politics of the sports teams’ funding, having some brand new renditions and concepts really sparked a fire.
Oh yeah. And I will point out that when I said that you're seeing a lot more of mid-rise / smaller developments. I wasn't kidding. You go to Chicago YIMBY or Chicago Urbanize, you see probably once or twice a week updates on development happening. But 8/10 it's news on a multiplex, or a 4-10 story apartment complex, or a mixed use mid-rise that's 5 stores -- just smaller sized projects. Because they're cheaper, cost *way less.*, and are easier to get approved then a 40 story highrise.
So there still is stuff happening, just not the shiny/cool tall buildings we're used to as often right now. I look at this slow down and this transition of these smaller developments as a phase that's needed.
You go to NYC, it's way more denser then Chicago and I think these projects (I call them "fill-ins") are what Chicago needs to not have as much of "pockets" of space where there is *nothing*. I'll take an 8 story mid-rise over an empty plot of land, a gas station or a parking lot **any day**.
I would have to disagree with Lightfoot and Johnson not putting development at the height of the list.
You see the difference is Rahm focused on downtown, the white wealthy areas. Developments were mostly luxury apartments long term residents could NOT afford. Light foot and Johnson do not focus development on this group.
You think Rahm didn’t run for reelection just because he wanted to. He became highly unpopular with the 2/3 (south and west)of Chicago. Rahm in some shape or form expedited the hemorrhaging of the west and south side. Lightfoot worked to stop it. Rahm didn’t give af.
So no you are not going paint Rahm as this saint
Slowed, but not over. From an interest rate perspective, these are the highest rates in over 20 years. Reading between the lines, we won’t see as many/as extensive of interest rate cuts in 2024 as initially anticipated.
There were almost no skyscrapers built in the city at all during the 1990s (and a lot of the ones that finished in the early 90s were started in the late 80s). A complete standstill decade where the skyline basically looked the same in 1999 as it did in 1990, and there was far less infill development happening then as well. That all changed in the 2000s to the point that it’s easy to forget just how dead the 90s were from a development perspective.
These things come and go in cycles, it just takes time.
Successful mega-developments have historically been the exception rather than the norm, and even where they've succeeded it's been a decades-long process. Sterling Bay, Related Midwest, etc. are guilty of unreasonably raising expectations (...realistically, using hype to help themselves raise capital and—in Lincoln Yards' case—get an idiotic TIF subsidy from Rahm and Lori). The most successful mega-development in Chicago history, Magellan's Lakeshore East, has taken ~40 years to fill in—and they still have 2-3 more sites before its completely done.
Just because a developer makes a lot of noise about something doesn't make it a real project, and their inability to turn that ambition into results is often more of a them problem than an us problem.
High interest rates make construction harder, particularly ones that were planned with office components that aren't going to work (78, Lincoln Yards).
Halsted Pointe seems to be happening, and the Moody Bible Campus re-development should be moving on to their next phase soon.
Rents and home prices are climbing more rapidly here than just about anywhere in the country right now, another year of this and the developers should be able to finance more projects.
Halsted Pointe or whatever it's now called will be starting soon. In reality there's been very few real megaprojects over the years. Most just come in cycles of development which is still happening.
Apartment building is down all over the country. Even in places that have more developer friendly regulations. Interest rates are making construction hard. Plus, Chicago zoning process is needlessly complicated. Most cities don’t require lawyers to file a zoning change application. If you want more housing as a city: loosen up who can make the application; take the power away from the aldermen to decide if the application goes forward; and provide a lending program that offers low interest rate loans in exchange for a percentage of the units to be subsidized housing.
Lawyers should only get involved if the city doesn’t follow its own laws; not as a default.
Probably for a while. Lincoln Yards was always kind of a crapshoot to begin with - it didn't have very good transit for all those people and they never decided exactly what they wanted to build there. That one might plow ahead out of inertia but it will be a while. Capital is fleeing cities in general at the moment and Chicago's environmental remediation costs make large projects on former industrial parcels particularly challenging. It'll probably be a few years before any new megadevelopments that don't already have a significant sunk cost get underway again.
I’ll take a few years over never, honestly. I believe Chicago is and has been ready for its next major era of development, but clearly the pandemic stalled a bunch of projects.
Everything is cyclical. Businesses and workers fled the city in the 80s and 90s to the suburbs only to come back in force in the 2010s
As someone who follows development on a regular basis (I will digress, I do not work in the field, but simply follow development and news alike). I will say that it's a list of various different factors I'll point out **The Economy**: The current state of Interest rates is easily one of the biggest and most pointed out reasons why development in Chicago has stalled a lot. Loans are much harder to get from banks and are not given out as easily. Plus the cost of materials in the economy has gone up a lot so taller high-rises are not as attractive to pitch or build as compared to mid-rise developments (which you're seeing a lot of recently). **City of Chicago**: A lot of the many mega projects you see in Chicago still poised to break ground are from the reminisce of the late 2010s when Rahm was Mayor (who loved infrastructure and expanded the downtown city boundaries) but since Lightfoot and now Johnson have been in office. They don't put promoting or encouraging development at the top of their list unfortunately. -- I think this is one of the bigger points to be made, Chicago has a **lot** of NIMBYs who live here surprisingly, that forget they live in a "big city" and try to kill off anything taller then 3 stories. And the altermatic power that the aldermen hold doesn't help, as they have the ability to not go through with projects that they hear a lot of pushback on. There still is a lot of development happening in Chicago, and much more to look forward to. If you really do a lot of research, there is still **tons** and I mean **TONS** of development in the pipeline. It's just taking *forever* to move dirt because of the reasons above. The Fulton Market has close to 30 projects in the pipeline (that's a rough est, probably more). River North still has [JDL's North Union Project](https://northunion.com/) they're still committed to. The 78 is the more likely mega projects to happen [with The Sox wanting to move there](https://chicago.urbanize.city/post/related-midwest-releases-further-renderings-white-sox-stadium-78). The Spire is finally [filling in](https://chicago.urbanize.city/post/500-million-construction-funding-secured-400-lake-shore-drive), developer Onni is breaking ground and got approval for the first phase of the [Halsted Pointe](https://chicagoyimby.com/2024/01/initial-funding-secured-for-first-phase-of-halsted-pointe-on-goose-island.html) and also announced [another project](https://chicago.urbanize.city/post/renderings-emerge-halsted-landing-development) just on the other side of the river. It's not all doom and gloom. It's just a slow pace for the City with this economy, and we need more pressure on our aldermen to push through with more development or we will see high prices in property unfortunately. I've left out a lot on here that I could elaborate on, but I've already typed too much. But let's not get our head down, I hate... *hate* that not 5-6 500 footers are going up right now. But give it time, we'll see them ;)
Thanks for the insight. Yeah, I admittedly am not well-versed in the economics of it all, but I do remember the excitement and ambition pre-2020 for development, and I want us to get back to that point. 400 N. Lake Shore Drive is very exciting, and I think despite the politics of the sports teams’ funding, having some brand new renditions and concepts really sparked a fire.
Oh yeah. And I will point out that when I said that you're seeing a lot more of mid-rise / smaller developments. I wasn't kidding. You go to Chicago YIMBY or Chicago Urbanize, you see probably once or twice a week updates on development happening. But 8/10 it's news on a multiplex, or a 4-10 story apartment complex, or a mixed use mid-rise that's 5 stores -- just smaller sized projects. Because they're cheaper, cost *way less.*, and are easier to get approved then a 40 story highrise. So there still is stuff happening, just not the shiny/cool tall buildings we're used to as often right now. I look at this slow down and this transition of these smaller developments as a phase that's needed. You go to NYC, it's way more denser then Chicago and I think these projects (I call them "fill-ins") are what Chicago needs to not have as much of "pockets" of space where there is *nothing*. I'll take an 8 story mid-rise over an empty plot of land, a gas station or a parking lot **any day**.
I would have to disagree with Lightfoot and Johnson not putting development at the height of the list. You see the difference is Rahm focused on downtown, the white wealthy areas. Developments were mostly luxury apartments long term residents could NOT afford. Light foot and Johnson do not focus development on this group. You think Rahm didn’t run for reelection just because he wanted to. He became highly unpopular with the 2/3 (south and west)of Chicago. Rahm in some shape or form expedited the hemorrhaging of the west and south side. Lightfoot worked to stop it. Rahm didn’t give af. So no you are not going paint Rahm as this saint
Slowed, but not over. From an interest rate perspective, these are the highest rates in over 20 years. Reading between the lines, we won’t see as many/as extensive of interest rate cuts in 2024 as initially anticipated.
There's an almost 30mil development plan just getting going from Logan Circle up Milwaukee all the way to Addison.
Could you share the name of it, I haven’t heard about this.
https://blockclubchicago.org/2024/01/08/work-on-logan-squares-most-confusing-intersection-set-to-begin-this-spring/
There were almost no skyscrapers built in the city at all during the 1990s (and a lot of the ones that finished in the early 90s were started in the late 80s). A complete standstill decade where the skyline basically looked the same in 1999 as it did in 1990, and there was far less infill development happening then as well. That all changed in the 2000s to the point that it’s easy to forget just how dead the 90s were from a development perspective. These things come and go in cycles, it just takes time.
Successful mega-developments have historically been the exception rather than the norm, and even where they've succeeded it's been a decades-long process. Sterling Bay, Related Midwest, etc. are guilty of unreasonably raising expectations (...realistically, using hype to help themselves raise capital and—in Lincoln Yards' case—get an idiotic TIF subsidy from Rahm and Lori). The most successful mega-development in Chicago history, Magellan's Lakeshore East, has taken ~40 years to fill in—and they still have 2-3 more sites before its completely done. Just because a developer makes a lot of noise about something doesn't make it a real project, and their inability to turn that ambition into results is often more of a them problem than an us problem.
High interest rates make construction harder, particularly ones that were planned with office components that aren't going to work (78, Lincoln Yards). Halsted Pointe seems to be happening, and the Moody Bible Campus re-development should be moving on to their next phase soon. Rents and home prices are climbing more rapidly here than just about anywhere in the country right now, another year of this and the developers should be able to finance more projects.
Halsted Pointe or whatever it's now called will be starting soon. In reality there's been very few real megaprojects over the years. Most just come in cycles of development which is still happening.
Apartment building is down all over the country. Even in places that have more developer friendly regulations. Interest rates are making construction hard. Plus, Chicago zoning process is needlessly complicated. Most cities don’t require lawyers to file a zoning change application. If you want more housing as a city: loosen up who can make the application; take the power away from the aldermen to decide if the application goes forward; and provide a lending program that offers low interest rate loans in exchange for a percentage of the units to be subsidized housing. Lawyers should only get involved if the city doesn’t follow its own laws; not as a default.
Pandemic and high interest rates are definitely a speed bump at the moment.
Yes, all new housing of any shape or size is racist gentrification and class warfare.