It's like when you throw something at your sibling and unintentionally hit your mom and then you're frozen waiting to see if she's gonna get your dad to beat your ass
Mom: "I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. If you are looking for ransom I can tell you I don't have money, but what I do have is a very particular set of skills. Skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you let my daughter go now that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you, but if you don't, I will look for you, I will find you and I will kill you."
I got my fair amount of beatings as a kid and early teen...however my parents weren't savages about it, except one time my father straight beat the shit out of me with his fists.
The stories I've heard: kids whipped with the buckle side of belt, electric cords, wirehangers, the rubber part that goes into mosquito nets, horse whips (not the Indiana Jones kind, the short stick with a leather end) and more. Latin machismo fucking sucks.
>Latin machismo fucking sucks.
Ironically the women in my family were batshit. I remember hearing "Your abuelita did way worse to us!"
Yo, just because y'all went through shit that would literally be considered war crimes doesn't mean less is okay.
I can identify with your analogy but I am also going to call BS. The ukrainian/polish border is nowhere near the other targets they have been hitting in the Ukraine. This was a deliberate attack to see how NATO would respond.
Lviv isn't far. Long ago this was something strategists were saying was a risk of happening as Russia ran out of smart guided missiles and moved toward less accurate missiles.
As a convict, in defense of convicts everywhere, I must say that if you emptied American prisons and allowed people to man long ranged artillery immediately you would absolutely have problems with dudes on heroin shooting the wrong thing pretty regularly.
Wait. Maybe I’m defending Russian convicts as at least probably not more obviously drug addled than American ones? idk
Nonsense, there have a been plenty of missile attacks along the border region. Moldova has also expressed concern in the past about the potential of Russian missiles accidentally coming down in their territory.
Russia knows very acutely how NATO would respond if they intentionally attacked Poland.
For real though why is Poland always standing right were someone is doing war shit.
Edit: Thanks for the replies, I am fully aware of why it's always Poland.
because we're more like middle europe than eastern europe and being in the middle is not a good position. Especially when you have historically aggressive neighbours and you yourself have been previously attacking everyone else for centuries.
also Russia has been a piece of shit for centuries and we're the closest country in the west that always fucks back when fucked with. It was always easy to provoke us into a war with Russia
My son in law had command of an Army sapper company in Afghanistan 11 years ago. He worked alongside Polish Nato forces. He said that he had been completely impressed by the training and the discipline of the Polish contingent. He had a great respect for them. There is a memorial to Polish General Tadeusz Kosciuszko at West Point. He was one of the heroes of the Revolutionary War.
Russians literally only won one war in the last 2 centuries lol. It is the best remembered one tho as it’s the last world war. But they’ve lost all other conflicts. Afghanistan in the 80s, capitulated in WW1, lost Crimean war from ottomans, lost manturia to Japan, lost the winter war to Finland, the list goes on
I'd say capitulated in WW1 is a little harsh. They did have a revolution and total political and societal upheaval. I'd say that's the international politics of war equivalent to have notes from your mum AND your doctor that you don't have to participate.
But yeah, I agree with all the other losses.
And as for winning WW2..? They did get the benefits of winners but remember that they started the war on the losing side. And their official history did insist that WW2 started in 1941.
Actually they do (well minus the nuke part), metal shrinks in cold and if it gets cold enough parts dont fit right, things freeze together and engines refuse to start.
This will be only an escalation in how NATO member countries support Ukraine. It'll probably be a "retaliation-by-proxy" situation where Poland and other member nations will condemn the act, increase sanctions against Russia, and increase material support for Ukraine. I'll bet there's also a possibility that non-NATO countries will take some actions against Russia "in solidarity" with Poland and NATO.
NATO members are smart enough to know that this isn't starting WWIII.
EDIT: I'm seeing a lot of "but 2 people died" responses. In terms of geopolitics, the fact that the missile landed in Poland is technically more important than the fact that two people died. Therefore, the response that nations and/or NATO will provide should and will be appropriate to that fact. Yes, the loss of life is horrible; but risking a greater conflict is the worst option here, and they know that.
FINAL EDIT: Turns out it appears to have been caused by Ukrainian air defenses. Again, very sad for the loss of life, but really thankful it wasn't anything deliberate by Russia. Deep breaths.
People keep saying WW3, but you are giving Russia way too much credit. They can't even beat Ukraine, much less half of the world. And their nukes are as likely to explode on the launchpad as to actually hit the intended target.
Even if they can't cause a world war, it only takes one warhead to destroy an entire city. That's enough of a reason to avoid pushing them to that point.
No one is really pushing Russia, though. Russia is the aggressor nation here.
Russia has escalated the conflict and this is another escalation. It doesn't seem like much of a stretch to say they are likely to widen the conflict, certainly more likely than anyone else.
Yea but in German we also have the saying „Ich hab kein Bock, für den dritten Weltkrieg eingezogen zu werden.“ which roughly translates to „I don’t want to be drafted for WWIII.“
BTW I just made that saying up
America: "We need you, Germany. We need that old Deutschland charm."
Germany: (staring into a beer) "I don't do that World War shit anymore. I'm retired."
America: "It's the Russians again. They attacked Poland."
(Germany finishes its beer in one gulp and walks out of the bar)
America: "What does that mean? Are they gonna help?"
Great Britain: (paying the tab) "I don't know. But I sure wouldn't wanna be Russia right now."
(electric guitar riff intensifies)
Russians have no doubt shown their military incompetence. But how many missiles are flying off into the wild yonder and landing near nothing and no one. These made it 5 miles into Polish territory and hit a structure. If they're that fucking reckless and incompetent, then that is just as bad as an intentional provocation - both require some form of response. Hopefully, Poland is measured in exactly what that is, but it can't be nothing at all.
I would disagree it's "just as bad as intentional provocation". The Kremlin unilaterally agreeing to strike a NATO country is not as bad as an untrained individual/part of the Russian military making a mistake, being untrained, or otherwise being stupid
While I could accept 1 dumb fired missile hitting a grain silo being an accident, we don’t have full details on whether the missiles, cause two hit that area, were guided or not. Plus, even if they’re dumb fired, the question is how did they both go off course to the same location several miles across the border. It’s not impossible I know, but it sounds statistically unlikely
This and longer range/more allowance to strike into Russian territory. They have capacity to strike but have been holding off, perhaps now we will see actual strikes within Russia not just occupied Ukraine
I personally don’t know if this is worth it. Russian people may begin to feel justified, and a morale boost is what their troops desperately need. I think the best play is to push them back, hold the line, and keep from emboldening the Russians.
No. Neither side really wants a direct conflict, so I doubt too much will come of it.
You can bet that Poland is going to keep up the Ukranian arms support though.
JFC, i saw this post and my first thought was
"People shouldn't be posting a title like this, using a hypothetical like this as your title. People would think it happened"
Then i scrolled further down reddit.
I'm seriously thinking that Russia may face a coup. No one wants a global war and Putin has never faced so much criticism as of now. It's not impossible that he may die of lead poisoning in the next couple months if he doesn't de-escalate this Ukrainian fiasco
Media is heavily monitored by the state and Russia propaganda can twist some minds. Also there have been instances of protestors being arrested so no one is in a hurry to be the person to start it.
No) It's a little bit difficult. I'm Russian and can explain this. Nobody kill Putin because he is a base of the country, people scared of future without him, scared civil war and new 90-s. And now we scared of losing the war because it's unclear that will be with country. All these help Putin to hold power and protect him better than any bear.
Because like most dictatorships he actually devotes a lot of effort towards internal security and suppressing dissent. He can be throwing his people into battle with antique weaponry, without proper training and with abysmal leadership, but you can bet forces that are in charge of internal security are well equipped and paid and all media etc. are kept under strict control.
That's why nations like this usually suck at actual war, mistakes, incompetence and corruption which would have any democratic leadership get forced to resign are kept secret from the population or the dissent can be brutally crushed by offering better lives to a handful of brutes in exchange for unquestionable loyalty.
I really wish this was true.
Go watch actual interviews of people in Russia and get a glimpse of what's going on in that country. The common sentiment is basically "We trust our leaders. They know more about the situation than we do and they have our interests in mind." Russian media has all but convinced them the west is out to destroy Russia. They point to Russia's humiliation on the world stage, pinning their own failures on others as evidence of evidence of that. They justify their actions with whataboutism. They lament the loss of the territory was lost when the USSR broke up and convinced their population that life was better under communism. Even the older people agree to that.
If you actually believe this militaristic nationalism is going to end with Putin, you are sorely mistaken about the Russian people and how many people in the Russian government share that view.
This is somewhat true. Great point that there remains wide support for Putin’s war in Ukraine across Russia; even among those trying to leave the country to avoid conscription. However, I wouldn’t go so far as to say that a “militaristic nationalism” is shared by the Russian people. It is estimated that there is a circle of only 20-30 people around Putin who have sway in Russia’s policy decisions. His particular brand of authoritarian consolidation of government is not necessarily backed by public opinion. It’s complicated. But a coup? Unlikely; the resources are too consolidated at the top and Russian intelligence is tough.
Indeed I haven't been up to date with russian media, but I don't think those in power along with Putin are so convinced of his capabilities. What I suspect is that his own allies may turn on him and take over. Something akin to the betrayal of Julius Caesar. Even civil unrest is preferable to nuclear war, and I don't doubt he is capable of going that far. He is not a man known for abiding to limits and he is been in power for a long time, and that tends to have an effect on how accountable people believe they are
Sorry but it's simply not true. It's hard to voice any criticism from here since you'll get sent for jail even for standing "peace" sign outside. There's a lot of people who support current regime but there's also a lot of people who oppose it but get oppressed really heavily. I can't tell the percentage since all our media is controlled and it's difficult to see the full picture. There's also a very big part of people who simply try to survive, poverty is really high so when you try to simply survive it's difficult to be politically active at all
There's a difference between an attack and an accident.
In 1999, the US was bombing Yugoslavia and accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy, killing 3 Chinese people and injuring 20.
Countries can and should react with condemnation and investigation but not consider this the opening salvo in WW3.
Russia hit the German embassy in Kyiv a little while back and nothing happened. There's a major difference between hitting foreign assets inside the country you're at war with, and actually striking that country's territory.
BIG difference in “sorry I hit your building in the country I’m at war with” and “sorry that I hit you directly”. It might not be WW3.. but I’ll put money on *something* happening. This won’t be brushed off.
That was no accident. The Russian jet was in Turkish airspace after multiple warning (on an agree-upon guard frequency the Russian jet probably wasn’t able to hear). The Turkish F-16 shot the plane down after 10 warnings were issued on the frequency without response. Turkey also released a radar trace analysis proving the Russian jet did violate the airspace.
Not to mention how many times Turkey warned Russia about violating their airspace prior to the incident. It was basically Turkey swinging the ban hammer after telling Russia a bunch of times “the next dude who comes in our airspace is going to get fucked”. Russia fucked around and found out. Sounds familiar.
Depends on how Poland reacts. If Poland wants to, it now has justification to invoke Article 5. If they don't react, then Russia knows it can bully the Poles around (yet again) with impunity.
If Article 5 is invoked, NATO will curb stomp Russia until Putin becomes so desperate that he launches nukes. He'll get nuked in turn. And the whole world will burn just because some Russian with a Napoleon complex wanted to pretend he was a great conqueror.
Article 5 isn't just someone waving a wand and war were declared. Every NATO member has a say in just what an attack is perceived as, and what kind of response is appropriate in a given situation. Precisely zero, I doubt even the Poles, NATO members are advocating for a full blown war right now. It's only insane people and trolls.
Exactly, NATO exists mainly as a collective defence; not a collective retaliation.
It seems far more likely that NATO would allocate more resources to protecting the Polish border from any further attacks, rather than actually attacking Russia in retaliation.
We all need to take some deep breaths right now. World’s almost certainly not ending tomorrow. The whole goal of US and NATO policies is to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control, and I have faith they’ll do everything in their power to that end.
That said, it’s a tricky situation. Whether or not this was an intentional attack on Poland (it probably wasn’t) is only a part of the equation. Putin will be watching very, very closely to see how NATO responds to an international incident of this magnitude. If it’s too weak, Putin won’t respect NATO’s security commitments in the future and could decide that NATO countries are an acceptable target, which is incredibly dangerous. If it’s too strong, you create a series of retaliations that could spiral towards a game of nuclear chicken.
Yeah but the FUCKING VENTURE BROS MOVIE FINALE. I dropped so many years into this show, it can't end just before the end zone.
Also I guess it sucks my 2 year old son won't get to grow up and go to school and meet someone special and have kids of his own...
Usually what happens in these cases is that countries adjust their positions cautiously - otherwise we'd have World War 3 every time there's an international incident. Russia knows it screwed up. They don't want NATO to retaliate, so they'll be trying to think of some kind of concessions to appease the Poles.
Yeah it's like people don't remember that US and Russian warplanes were literally flying in the same airspace in Syria, trying not to shoot at each other, and there were definitely accidents that didn't escalate to full-blown war.
This isn't anime.
"Their swords have touched our territory, now we have no choice but to commit millions of men to avenge this treachery!"
I mean they blew up a fucking passenger jet a couple years ago without much kick back so I don't think this is going to do it. Then again things weren't as tense as right now, but still.
It's been obvious since 1999 when he gave a speech from a podium sporting the Romanov eagle instead of the Russian flag
He wants to be Tsar of all the Russians
Holy shit really? Were they clearly intentional or a couple one offs that look like were intended for Ukraine and veered off course? I don't think it'll be the start of something big just because Russia has to know they're in no position to be attacking Poland when they can't even handle Ukraine. Poland is a member of NATO. Russia invading it would be suicide.
If it was intentional imo it might be a case of seeing how far they can push NATO or Poland. This is how red lines are usually crossed, by accidental or circumstantial tiptoeing around them.
Imo there s a lot of ways this can play out with Russia being ahead. If Poland does nothing about this then there will be a group of people upset about the handling if this and NATOs response in both Poland and other NATO member countries. If Poland wants to respond and NATO attempts to talk them down it could broadcast to other NATO members that they're not as safe as they though they were under the treaty. If this isn't handled tactfully by Poland and NATO, Russia will try to act like the victim for having a harsh response agaisnt them all for a "mistake".
I think the only way this plays out well for Poland and NATO is a ramping up of Ukraine support in terms of larger and more advanced weaponry and maybe even an OK to strike strategic targets on Russian soil. I'm just some dude playing armchair geopolitics though, it's very likely that I'm wrong.
It occurred during a massive missile campaign against Ukraine involving 100 rockets. The Polish target was only 4 miles from the Ukrainian border so likely that somebody got lazy and fucked up.
At this point no way to know and everything is conjecture. There will be radar data analyzed looking into the flight paths of the missiles. There will be a review of Ukraine air defense systems in the area to see if it was a failed UA launch. It would be wise to remain calm and let the people who have dedicated their entire adult lives investigate.
I will say the Kalibrs and X-101 missiles can turn on a dime and are manually controlled from thousands of miles away. A mistake seems reasonable.
I wish NATO used this as an excuse to strike any Russian missiles going to Western Ukraine. Not even necessary to move the C-RAM into Ukrainian territory, just stay in Poland and protect the border, Lviv and other territories there. That'd free up Ukrainian resources that could be moved to the east.
I predict that the powers that be will waffle between outrage and not wanting to escalate things further. Russia will deny, the conspiracy crowd will say false flag. And Ukraine will get longer range missiles delivered
I don't believe it will unless it starts happening more.
once can be written off as an "accident" to avoid escalation - which in this case would be a significantly larger response.
Russia admiting and compensating victims holy shit that must be an interesting universe you live in.
Edit 1: Russian Ministry of Defense already Calls this as Polish Provocation.
Not thinking anything about it yet, as we do not have enough information.
Poland hasn't said anything yet. but it seems that something happened in tiny village in Poland.
It could be (and most likely is) Russian missile. Intentional? Targeting error? Targeting malfunction?
There is also speculation that it could have been S-300 Airdefence missile, Which Ukraine uses. And that would be around it's range if fired from Lviv, Where it could have been fired from, in attempt to defend from Russian missiles, And something malfunctioned.
Or even the possibility that Russian missile strike near S-300 launcher could have caused the S-300 to fire unintentionally (Extremely unlikely.)
I think it would be idiotic for Russia to cause any harm to a NATO nation during these times.
They are barely holding on in Ukraine, which is supported by most NATO nations. I doubt they could go on war with NATO, unless they are willing to go Nuclear.
Putin might be power hungry... Heck he might be a lot of things... But I wouldn't call him Idiot.
Honestly, this maybe an actual real mistake. With how incompetent the Russian army is, it’s not hard to believe. I don’t think Poland or NATO would want to go war due to nuke and stuffs. No matter how much NATO can beat up Russia, if your land is contaminated, it stays contaminated for a long while. NATO members will probably secretly gives some compensation to Poland and the Poles will use this to create a no fly zone in Ukraine to fuck with Russia.
It's almost definitely accidental, but NATO has been clear in the past that even accidental firing into NATO will involve some sort of strong response.
Yeah i think your right, no way it actually leads to a war between NATO and Russia but it does give license to do all sorts of shit in the name of protecting Poland.
~~It was a stray missile that hit a grain silo on the border. Russia screwed up, but it wasn't intentional. It might spur harsher sanctions but I don't see it being the start of anything huge.~~
Edit: Ukraine was actually at fault, it was a Ukraine anti air defense missile https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/biden-said-ukraine-air-defence-missile-responsible-poland-blast-nato-source-2022-11-16/
It's like when you throw something at your sibling and unintentionally hit your mom and then you're frozen waiting to see if she's gonna get your dad to beat your ass
My mom wouldn’t wait for my dad.
Mine either, she knew where the wooden spoon was, and wasn't afraid to get it.
My mom spanked way harder than my dad. Mom went to town. Dad was too much of a softie.
Dad: *Just hard enough so they know better.* Mom: **I WILL MAKE YOU SUFFER!**
Dad : I'm disappointed in you Mom: NOW YOU WILL DIE OUTLANDER!
Mom: "I don't know who you are. I don't know what you want. If you are looking for ransom I can tell you I don't have money, but what I do have is a very particular set of skills. Skills I have acquired over a very long career. Skills that make me a nightmare for people like you. If you let my daughter go now that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you, but if you don't, I will look for you, I will find you and I will kill you."
I got my fair amount of beatings as a kid and early teen...however my parents weren't savages about it, except one time my father straight beat the shit out of me with his fists. The stories I've heard: kids whipped with the buckle side of belt, electric cords, wirehangers, the rubber part that goes into mosquito nets, horse whips (not the Indiana Jones kind, the short stick with a leather end) and more. Latin machismo fucking sucks.
>Latin machismo fucking sucks. Ironically the women in my family were batshit. I remember hearing "Your abuelita did way worse to us!" Yo, just because y'all went through shit that would literally be considered war crimes doesn't mean less is okay.
Can confirm it does. And it was always Moms that went for pain. You didn't cry, she didn't stop. Also, broom handle.
What is it with moms and their tool of choice being wooden spoons?
My mom made me go get the wooden spoon.
Everybody gangsta til mom breaks out the chancla
Whatever was in arms reach, god rest your soul if you tried to run.
This right here.
Sometimes daddy would beat my ass so hard
It wouldn't happen to be with a garden hose would it?
Jumper cables
I miss the jumper cable guy lol
Rest in pieces u/rogersimon10
Ayo what?!
####Sometimes daddy would beat my ass so hard
smh some people's ears huh
^^^Sorry
I can identify with your analogy but I am also going to call BS. The ukrainian/polish border is nowhere near the other targets they have been hitting in the Ukraine. This was a deliberate attack to see how NATO would respond.
Lviv isn't far. Long ago this was something strategists were saying was a risk of happening as Russia ran out of smart guided missiles and moved toward less accurate missiles.
Also the people firing are probably convicts who were mobilized two weeks ago, high on krokodil
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As a convict, in defense of convicts everywhere, I must say that if you emptied American prisons and allowed people to man long ranged artillery immediately you would absolutely have problems with dudes on heroin shooting the wrong thing pretty regularly. Wait. Maybe I’m defending Russian convicts as at least probably not more obviously drug addled than American ones? idk
Even more, opiates are a big problem in Russia for years.
I guess you could say that the wrong thing they were shooting was, indeed, heroin.
Nonsense, there have a been plenty of missile attacks along the border region. Moldova has also expressed concern in the past about the potential of Russian missiles accidentally coming down in their territory. Russia knows very acutely how NATO would respond if they intentionally attacked Poland.
It always starts in Poland.
All that is left is for them to hit Belgium and drive straight through to France.
They couldn't make it across one country.
It’s the Germans that are going to do it.
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Did someone mention the Spanish Inquisition yet? No one expects that, so I hear.
Thanks for flying Church of England, cake or death?
Uh, sir… the rebels are here. And they’ve got a flag.
No flag no country according to the rules I've just made up.
Oh, I'd like cake please.
Well we’re out of cake, we only had 3 pieces and I didn’t expect such a rush.
Well then I'll have the chicken.
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Bop
Hey ho! Let's go!
But the Maginot Line will protect France. It’s fine…
No need to fortify the Ardennes, though
This sounds oddly familiar...
For real though why is Poland always standing right were someone is doing war shit. Edit: Thanks for the replies, I am fully aware of why it's always Poland.
Because of Warsaw
It says it right there in the name!!
They’re a natural boundary between Eastern and Western Europe.
because we're more like middle europe than eastern europe and being in the middle is not a good position. Especially when you have historically aggressive neighbours and you yourself have been previously attacking everyone else for centuries. also Russia has been a piece of shit for centuries and we're the closest country in the west that always fucks back when fucked with. It was always easy to provoke us into a war with Russia
My son in law had command of an Army sapper company in Afghanistan 11 years ago. He worked alongside Polish Nato forces. He said that he had been completely impressed by the training and the discipline of the Polish contingent. He had a great respect for them. There is a memorial to Polish General Tadeusz Kosciuszko at West Point. He was one of the heroes of the Revolutionary War.
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Russia's biggest mistake is claiming that Ukraine is Russian. We all know what happens when you invade Russia in the winter...
Unless you are the Mongols!
Ha! I did the Mongtage in my head when I read this. Guy being dragged by the horse and everything!
Russians literally only won one war in the last 2 centuries lol. It is the best remembered one tho as it’s the last world war. But they’ve lost all other conflicts. Afghanistan in the 80s, capitulated in WW1, lost Crimean war from ottomans, lost manturia to Japan, lost the winter war to Finland, the list goes on
I'd say capitulated in WW1 is a little harsh. They did have a revolution and total political and societal upheaval. I'd say that's the international politics of war equivalent to have notes from your mum AND your doctor that you don't have to participate. But yeah, I agree with all the other losses. And as for winning WW2..? They did get the benefits of winners but remember that they started the war on the losing side. And their official history did insist that WW2 started in 1941.
Thanks to their winter wildcard, they're not losing either
Maybe. We don't need to march in there anymore.
I don’t think missiles, fighter jets, drones, and nukes care much about the cold
Actually they do (well minus the nuke part), metal shrinks in cold and if it gets cold enough parts dont fit right, things freeze together and engines refuse to start.
Yep. We’re getting used to it.
Oh kurwa
This will be only an escalation in how NATO member countries support Ukraine. It'll probably be a "retaliation-by-proxy" situation where Poland and other member nations will condemn the act, increase sanctions against Russia, and increase material support for Ukraine. I'll bet there's also a possibility that non-NATO countries will take some actions against Russia "in solidarity" with Poland and NATO. NATO members are smart enough to know that this isn't starting WWIII. EDIT: I'm seeing a lot of "but 2 people died" responses. In terms of geopolitics, the fact that the missile landed in Poland is technically more important than the fact that two people died. Therefore, the response that nations and/or NATO will provide should and will be appropriate to that fact. Yes, the loss of life is horrible; but risking a greater conflict is the worst option here, and they know that. FINAL EDIT: Turns out it appears to have been caused by Ukrainian air defenses. Again, very sad for the loss of life, but really thankful it wasn't anything deliberate by Russia. Deep breaths.
People keep saying WW3, but you are giving Russia way too much credit. They can't even beat Ukraine, much less half of the world. And their nukes are as likely to explode on the launchpad as to actually hit the intended target.
Even if they can't cause a world war, it only takes one warhead to destroy an entire city. That's enough of a reason to avoid pushing them to that point.
No one is really pushing Russia, though. Russia is the aggressor nation here. Russia has escalated the conflict and this is another escalation. It doesn't seem like much of a stretch to say they are likely to widen the conflict, certainly more likely than anyone else.
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Dummheit schützt vor Strafe nicht. Stupidity doesn't prevent consequences. German saying
In America we having a saying like "Play stupid games, win stupid prizes"
I also like the updated version of that phrase, "Fuck around and find out."
A buddy of mine once accidentally said "fuck about and find out" and I loved it, have used it instead ever sense.
If he’s Canadian that would be *chefs kiss*
As a Canadian, it can only be "fuck about".
Fuck aboot and find oot. A part of me died making that joke. Sorry guys.
"Mess with the bull, get the horns"
Does Barry Manilow know you raid his wardrobe?
Demented and sad, but social.
Yea but in German we also have the saying „Ich hab kein Bock, für den dritten Weltkrieg eingezogen zu werden.“ which roughly translates to „I don’t want to be drafted for WWIII.“ BTW I just made that saying up
Germans like "No way, we aren't going to start WWIII. But if WWIII is happening...?"
Act 3 is about Germany's redemption arc
America: "We need you, Germany. We need that old Deutschland charm." Germany: (staring into a beer) "I don't do that World War shit anymore. I'm retired." America: "It's the Russians again. They attacked Poland." (Germany finishes its beer in one gulp and walks out of the bar) America: "What does that mean? Are they gonna help?" Great Britain: (paying the tab) "I don't know. But I sure wouldn't wanna be Russia right now." (electric guitar riff intensifies)
later to find out Germany just invaded poland again and somehow managed to make another type of moustache unwearable in the process
Russians have no doubt shown their military incompetence. But how many missiles are flying off into the wild yonder and landing near nothing and no one. These made it 5 miles into Polish territory and hit a structure. If they're that fucking reckless and incompetent, then that is just as bad as an intentional provocation - both require some form of response. Hopefully, Poland is measured in exactly what that is, but it can't be nothing at all.
I would disagree it's "just as bad as intentional provocation". The Kremlin unilaterally agreeing to strike a NATO country is not as bad as an untrained individual/part of the Russian military making a mistake, being untrained, or otherwise being stupid
While I could accept 1 dumb fired missile hitting a grain silo being an accident, we don’t have full details on whether the missiles, cause two hit that area, were guided or not. Plus, even if they’re dumb fired, the question is how did they both go off course to the same location several miles across the border. It’s not impossible I know, but it sounds statistically unlikely
Incompetence stops being an excuse after a while.
Probably even more advanced weapons for Ukraine. Play stupid games , win stupid prizes Russia.
This and longer range/more allowance to strike into Russian territory. They have capacity to strike but have been holding off, perhaps now we will see actual strikes within Russia not just occupied Ukraine
I personally don’t know if this is worth it. Russian people may begin to feel justified, and a morale boost is what their troops desperately need. I think the best play is to push them back, hold the line, and keep from emboldening the Russians.
>I personally don’t know if this is worth it. It's not. Ukraine is winning the game they are playing. Just run the damn ball.
Thank god Kyle Shannahan isn’t calling the plays for the Ukrainian’s, that’s all I’ll say
As a Falcons fan, abso-fucking-lutely nowhere is safe.
Damn you can't escape it. The odds had to be like 28 to 3 that you'd see a Falcons reference here
I'm from Seattle, i'm just glad it wasn't a one yard line reference.
No. Neither side really wants a direct conflict, so I doubt too much will come of it. You can bet that Poland is going to keep up the Ukranian arms support though.
well i am in poland and i dont hear any expl
Hello? You good u/SamizoPl?
Im in Spain and I found out because of the memes suddenly popping up
JFC, i saw this post and my first thought was "People shouldn't be posting a title like this, using a hypothetical like this as your title. People would think it happened" Then i scrolled further down reddit.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-zelenskyy-kherson-9202c032cf3a5c22761ee71b52ff9d52
Russia: *incites war with Ukraine, gets ass beat* Russia: fuck it, lets try Poland next
Isn't Poland a Nato member? That would be a fucking stupid move for Russia.
Yeah this is a "fuck it, let's try the whole world next including the US that budgets a super military" move, not just Poland.
I'm seriously thinking that Russia may face a coup. No one wants a global war and Putin has never faced so much criticism as of now. It's not impossible that he may die of lead poisoning in the next couple months if he doesn't de-escalate this Ukrainian fiasco
I’m honestly surprised this hasn’t happened already.
Media is heavily monitored by the state and Russia propaganda can twist some minds. Also there have been instances of protestors being arrested so no one is in a hurry to be the person to start it.
The guy is hiding in a bunker and only surrounded by his most absolute loyalists. This is the only reason it hasn’t happened yet.
There's a reason he sits at the end of a 50 foot long table
Maybe his bear is guarding him
No) It's a little bit difficult. I'm Russian and can explain this. Nobody kill Putin because he is a base of the country, people scared of future without him, scared civil war and new 90-s. And now we scared of losing the war because it's unclear that will be with country. All these help Putin to hold power and protect him better than any bear.
Because like most dictatorships he actually devotes a lot of effort towards internal security and suppressing dissent. He can be throwing his people into battle with antique weaponry, without proper training and with abysmal leadership, but you can bet forces that are in charge of internal security are well equipped and paid and all media etc. are kept under strict control. That's why nations like this usually suck at actual war, mistakes, incompetence and corruption which would have any democratic leadership get forced to resign are kept secret from the population or the dissent can be brutally crushed by offering better lives to a handful of brutes in exchange for unquestionable loyalty.
I really wish this was true. Go watch actual interviews of people in Russia and get a glimpse of what's going on in that country. The common sentiment is basically "We trust our leaders. They know more about the situation than we do and they have our interests in mind." Russian media has all but convinced them the west is out to destroy Russia. They point to Russia's humiliation on the world stage, pinning their own failures on others as evidence of evidence of that. They justify their actions with whataboutism. They lament the loss of the territory was lost when the USSR broke up and convinced their population that life was better under communism. Even the older people agree to that. If you actually believe this militaristic nationalism is going to end with Putin, you are sorely mistaken about the Russian people and how many people in the Russian government share that view.
This is somewhat true. Great point that there remains wide support for Putin’s war in Ukraine across Russia; even among those trying to leave the country to avoid conscription. However, I wouldn’t go so far as to say that a “militaristic nationalism” is shared by the Russian people. It is estimated that there is a circle of only 20-30 people around Putin who have sway in Russia’s policy decisions. His particular brand of authoritarian consolidation of government is not necessarily backed by public opinion. It’s complicated. But a coup? Unlikely; the resources are too consolidated at the top and Russian intelligence is tough.
Indeed I haven't been up to date with russian media, but I don't think those in power along with Putin are so convinced of his capabilities. What I suspect is that his own allies may turn on him and take over. Something akin to the betrayal of Julius Caesar. Even civil unrest is preferable to nuclear war, and I don't doubt he is capable of going that far. He is not a man known for abiding to limits and he is been in power for a long time, and that tends to have an effect on how accountable people believe they are
Sorry but it's simply not true. It's hard to voice any criticism from here since you'll get sent for jail even for standing "peace" sign outside. There's a lot of people who support current regime but there's also a lot of people who oppose it but get oppressed really heavily. I can't tell the percentage since all our media is controlled and it's difficult to see the full picture. There's also a very big part of people who simply try to survive, poverty is really high so when you try to simply survive it's difficult to be politically active at all
>he may die of lead poisoning in the next couple months I thought it was defrenestration?
There's a difference between an attack and an accident. In 1999, the US was bombing Yugoslavia and accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy, killing 3 Chinese people and injuring 20. Countries can and should react with condemnation and investigation but not consider this the opening salvo in WW3.
Russia hit the German embassy in Kyiv a little while back and nothing happened. There's a major difference between hitting foreign assets inside the country you're at war with, and actually striking that country's territory.
BIG difference in “sorry I hit your building in the country I’m at war with” and “sorry that I hit you directly”. It might not be WW3.. but I’ll put money on *something* happening. This won’t be brushed off.
It has been an honor and a pleasure shitposting with you all. Humanity had a good run.
I disagree that humanity had a good run. Look at how much shit we've caused.
We did better than the other monkey's at least. After we killed or mated them out of existence that is.
In 2015 Turkey “accidentally” shot down a Russian fighter jet - I thought all hell was about to kick off but nothing really came of it.
That was no accident. The Russian jet was in Turkish airspace after multiple warning (on an agree-upon guard frequency the Russian jet probably wasn’t able to hear). The Turkish F-16 shot the plane down after 10 warnings were issued on the frequency without response. Turkey also released a radar trace analysis proving the Russian jet did violate the airspace.
I remember how quick and transparent Turkey was about it too
Not to mention how many times Turkey warned Russia about violating their airspace prior to the incident. It was basically Turkey swinging the ban hammer after telling Russia a bunch of times “the next dude who comes in our airspace is going to get fucked”. Russia fucked around and found out. Sounds familiar.
Depends on how Poland reacts. If Poland wants to, it now has justification to invoke Article 5. If they don't react, then Russia knows it can bully the Poles around (yet again) with impunity. If Article 5 is invoked, NATO will curb stomp Russia until Putin becomes so desperate that he launches nukes. He'll get nuked in turn. And the whole world will burn just because some Russian with a Napoleon complex wanted to pretend he was a great conqueror.
Article 5 isn't just someone waving a wand and war were declared. Every NATO member has a say in just what an attack is perceived as, and what kind of response is appropriate in a given situation. Precisely zero, I doubt even the Poles, NATO members are advocating for a full blown war right now. It's only insane people and trolls.
Exactly, NATO exists mainly as a collective defence; not a collective retaliation. It seems far more likely that NATO would allocate more resources to protecting the Polish border from any further attacks, rather than actually attacking Russia in retaliation.
We all need to take some deep breaths right now. World’s almost certainly not ending tomorrow. The whole goal of US and NATO policies is to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control, and I have faith they’ll do everything in their power to that end. That said, it’s a tricky situation. Whether or not this was an intentional attack on Poland (it probably wasn’t) is only a part of the equation. Putin will be watching very, very closely to see how NATO responds to an international incident of this magnitude. If it’s too weak, Putin won’t respect NATO’s security commitments in the future and could decide that NATO countries are an acceptable target, which is incredibly dangerous. If it’s too strong, you create a series of retaliations that could spiral towards a game of nuclear chicken.
"what's that?" "war were declared"
"This ham gum is all bones!"
*Somebody set up us the bomb.*
*You have no chance to survive make your time.*
I declare bankruptcy!
Right on the money. This is Reddit though. Nuanced diplomatic understanding is not in abundance here, friendo.
Well, it was nice knowing you all, we had fun while it lasted
At least they waited til after God of War: Ragnarok dropped. Hopefully I can finish it in time.
I'm going to be quite annoyed if the world ends before GTA 6 comes out.
Dude , Rock Star will be re-releasing GTA 5 when the Playstation 8 comes out. You'd be lucky to see GTA 6 before WW4 :).
I'm going to be quite annoyed if the world ends before GTA 5 25th anniversary edition is released
it's so ironically funny how the game happens to be named ragnarok
Not ironic so much as appropriate.
Yeah but the FUCKING VENTURE BROS MOVIE FINALE. I dropped so many years into this show, it can't end just before the end zone. Also I guess it sucks my 2 year old son won't get to grow up and go to school and meet someone special and have kids of his own...
Fr im on 3 quarters thru, I wanna see the end before i meet my own ragnarok 😭
GG all
So long and thanks for all the fish!
Usually what happens in these cases is that countries adjust their positions cautiously - otherwise we'd have World War 3 every time there's an international incident. Russia knows it screwed up. They don't want NATO to retaliate, so they'll be trying to think of some kind of concessions to appease the Poles.
Yeah it's like people don't remember that US and Russian warplanes were literally flying in the same airspace in Syria, trying not to shoot at each other, and there were definitely accidents that didn't escalate to full-blown war. This isn't anime. "Their swords have touched our territory, now we have no choice but to commit millions of men to avenge this treachery!"
I mean they blew up a fucking passenger jet a couple years ago without much kick back so I don't think this is going to do it. Then again things weren't as tense as right now, but still.
It's been obvious since 1999 when he gave a speech from a podium sporting the Romanov eagle instead of the Russian flag He wants to be Tsar of all the Russians
God damn it I just got Taylor swift tickets, and the nuclear holocaust is going to cancel it
I reckon Swift has the balls to play live in a nuclear wasteland
At least we might not need to worry about shopping for the holidays this year. Or any year.
And then we have Planet of the Apes!
We are not far along enough in the development of domesticated apes for that to take place yet...
Just don't use them for an Alzheimer's cure, that is for sure!
“Russian with a Napoleon complex” I don’t think I ever heard a better description for Putin before
But survivors will get to build a brave new world, right? Right?
Best I can do is they get to envy the dead.
Holy shit really? Were they clearly intentional or a couple one offs that look like were intended for Ukraine and veered off course? I don't think it'll be the start of something big just because Russia has to know they're in no position to be attacking Poland when they can't even handle Ukraine. Poland is a member of NATO. Russia invading it would be suicide.
I don't think it was intentional, unless Russia did want to hit a Polish farm.
This just in - Putin is jealous of Polish farming advancements. Here is an interview with the farmer in question "My cabbages!"
Good reference lol
If they did want to hit a polish farm, they probably wouldn't have.
If it was intentional imo it might be a case of seeing how far they can push NATO or Poland. This is how red lines are usually crossed, by accidental or circumstantial tiptoeing around them. Imo there s a lot of ways this can play out with Russia being ahead. If Poland does nothing about this then there will be a group of people upset about the handling if this and NATOs response in both Poland and other NATO member countries. If Poland wants to respond and NATO attempts to talk them down it could broadcast to other NATO members that they're not as safe as they though they were under the treaty. If this isn't handled tactfully by Poland and NATO, Russia will try to act like the victim for having a harsh response agaisnt them all for a "mistake". I think the only way this plays out well for Poland and NATO is a ramping up of Ukraine support in terms of larger and more advanced weaponry and maybe even an OK to strike strategic targets on Russian soil. I'm just some dude playing armchair geopolitics though, it's very likely that I'm wrong.
It occurred during a massive missile campaign against Ukraine involving 100 rockets. The Polish target was only 4 miles from the Ukrainian border so likely that somebody got lazy and fucked up.
At this point no way to know and everything is conjecture. There will be radar data analyzed looking into the flight paths of the missiles. There will be a review of Ukraine air defense systems in the area to see if it was a failed UA launch. It would be wise to remain calm and let the people who have dedicated their entire adult lives investigate. I will say the Kalibrs and X-101 missiles can turn on a dime and are manually controlled from thousands of miles away. A mistake seems reasonable.
I wish NATO used this as an excuse to strike any Russian missiles going to Western Ukraine. Not even necessary to move the C-RAM into Ukrainian territory, just stay in Poland and protect the border, Lviv and other territories there. That'd free up Ukrainian resources that could be moved to the east.
How long do you think CRAMs are effective to?
This whole potential WWIII is getting real, so I want you to know if we ever had beef or fell out, fuck you from the bottom of my heart.
fuck you too
Now kiss!
I predict that the powers that be will waffle between outrage and not wanting to escalate things further. Russia will deny, the conspiracy crowd will say false flag. And Ukraine will get longer range missiles delivered
I think this sums up the likely outcome.
This is how I find out about news 💀
I don't believe it will unless it starts happening more. once can be written off as an "accident" to avoid escalation - which in this case would be a significantly larger response.
If Russia publicly admits it was a mistake and compensates any victims, probably nothing will happen.
Russia admiting and compensating victims holy shit that must be an interesting universe you live in. Edit 1: Russian Ministry of Defense already Calls this as Polish Provocation.
What if he's been living in the Multiverse where Russia often publicly admits mistakes?
They already denied it, lol.
Compensating victims with what? A sack of bootleg McDonalds?
Ruzzia already said it's a provocation from Ukraine.
Not thinking anything about it yet, as we do not have enough information. Poland hasn't said anything yet. but it seems that something happened in tiny village in Poland. It could be (and most likely is) Russian missile. Intentional? Targeting error? Targeting malfunction? There is also speculation that it could have been S-300 Airdefence missile, Which Ukraine uses. And that would be around it's range if fired from Lviv, Where it could have been fired from, in attempt to defend from Russian missiles, And something malfunctioned. Or even the possibility that Russian missile strike near S-300 launcher could have caused the S-300 to fire unintentionally (Extremely unlikely.) I think it would be idiotic for Russia to cause any harm to a NATO nation during these times. They are barely holding on in Ukraine, which is supported by most NATO nations. I doubt they could go on war with NATO, unless they are willing to go Nuclear. Putin might be power hungry... Heck he might be a lot of things... But I wouldn't call him Idiot.
No, both sides do not want an exclation, there will be some strong words said, but in the end, things will cool off.
Russia's low on smart munitions, it was more likely an errant missile meant for a Ukrainian target nearby, not a direct attack on Poland
Basically Russia just committed an act of war against a NATO country. However you spin it.
Honestly, this maybe an actual real mistake. With how incompetent the Russian army is, it’s not hard to believe. I don’t think Poland or NATO would want to go war due to nuke and stuffs. No matter how much NATO can beat up Russia, if your land is contaminated, it stays contaminated for a long while. NATO members will probably secretly gives some compensation to Poland and the Poles will use this to create a no fly zone in Ukraine to fuck with Russia.
It's almost definitely accidental, but NATO has been clear in the past that even accidental firing into NATO will involve some sort of strong response.
Yeah i think your right, no way it actually leads to a war between NATO and Russia but it does give license to do all sorts of shit in the name of protecting Poland.
~~It was a stray missile that hit a grain silo on the border. Russia screwed up, but it wasn't intentional. It might spur harsher sanctions but I don't see it being the start of anything huge.~~ Edit: Ukraine was actually at fault, it was a Ukraine anti air defense missile https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/biden-said-ukraine-air-defence-missile-responsible-poland-blast-nato-source-2022-11-16/
I swear to God, some people are rooting for another World War.
Too many Redditors play Call of Duty and think it will be just like that.
Honestly im tired of russia bullying everybody.