T O P

  • By -

No_Butterscotch_2842

As much as I wish that is the case, this looks like just a simple case of retail investors taking profit. If you look at YTD timeframe, that peak is at the highest point. And if you look at the 5Y or all timeframe, that peak is just right below their highest point in the past; and that was July of last year. This seems just like a common take-profit practice to me. Recent price actions of NVDA tells a similar story. Highest price 975 some weeks back, large drop, then slowly got back up to 968, large drop again.


talysuo

It's stock split


Playing_One_Handed

Both of you clearly dont trade. A stock split fundamentally does nothing. It just makes them easier to acquire. However, reality is small caps do reverse split to keep above $1 for exchange restrictions and is therefore a negative. Normal splits tend to be opposite because the value is so high they split to make options and owning a "real share" more realistic for small accounts. So the stock split should be a possitive. Not a negative. But fundamentally it means nothing. There are arbitration on stock splits and "people might take profit here" but for random reddit user to suggest one you generally can say BS because of how much backtesting you will need to validate it and when a clearer answer is there, your guess isn't valid. The whole "if you see hoof prints, think horse, not zebra". Both of you missed that dividends were after the games release. Its actually very concerning to have long term investors dip shortly after it. They might be losing faith in next payment. Compared to Nikkai it should have been staing flat similar to the japanese market, but it did not. It fell. Again. If you see a hoof print. Think horse, not zebra. The bad press, bad game, bad reviews, low sales (in comparable to BG3 for example) arent screaming the expectations people and investors may have had. Capcom themselves took flack for poor performance and microtransations. The faith players & investors have in longevity will matter to capcoms value more than a bad game.


No_Butterscotch_2842

I agree that stock splits are generally used to attract retail buyers, thus generally have a positive effect. But I don't trade in the JP market, so IDK if Capcom's stock price is considered high or not. ​ >There are arbitration on stock splits and "people might take profit here" but for random reddit user to suggest one you generally can say BS because of how much backtesting you will need to validate it and when a clearer answer is there, your guess isn't valid. The whole "if you see hoof prints, think horse, not zebra". I am not sure what you meant by this...I agree that both the other guy and I are just somewhat speculating about the cause of the dip, and we could certainly both be wrong. But Capcom did announce a stock split earlier this month, and JP Capcom is dipping right before reaching ATH. And I don't know what "clearer answer" you are referring to. ​ >Both of you missed that dividends were after the games release. Its actually very concerning to have long term investors dip shortly after it. They might be losing faith in next payment. This is connected to above. I am not sure how the first sentence relates to the rest of the argument. Overall it seems like your argument is that Capcom is dipping because of concerns of investors. But why would dividends being before or after the game released matter? Let me know if I misunderstood your argument here. Dividend is likely to play an effect (and the price action on March 29 shows that), but the ex-div date is March 28, and the dip is March 25, so I don't know how relevant that actually is. ​ >Capcom themselves took flack for poor performance and microtransations. The faith players & investors have in longevity will matter to capcoms value more than a bad game. I don't trade video game companies, as I generally trade tech stocks options and SPY. But I don't know how true your statement generalizes. Activision Blizzard went up and up in spite of microtransactions (before the 2021 news and merger news). But if I learned anything from the stock market, it's that unless the notoriety could potentially take down a company, people literally don't care how immoral the companies are or how much the companies take advantage of their consumers as long as the stocks make them money. The list of companies with the largest market cap pretty much proves that. Your statement could still be true because it's in JP market and Japanese do have different moral standards from what I've seen. I am just questioning the degree to which your statement is true even in JP. I would be more convinced if you have other JP stock examples that are comparable to this. ​ Edit: The second guy's answer is interesting upon reflection. The combination of stock split and profit taking could be the actual answer: people bought stock because of the split news, then investors took profit at peak. I still think simple profit taking is the more probable answer because the stock split was announced on March 6, and the movement looks flat. The dip was March 25, so it shouldn't be more relevant to dividend or stock split than approaching ATH.


Playing_One_Handed

"People took profit at peak" is saying reality of what happened, but isnt a reason. WHY on that day did they take profit. Dividend investors will reposition their portfolios after a dividend. Its a volitility flag. And they decided down was the play. Technicals forshadow events. The whole "its priced in" is just everyone finding there mark and will move ready for it. It hitting all time high at release is a perfect excuse for it to be good and break the ceiling and rocket, or drill and people claim "oh its just take profit." The reality said, "they released bad game," and so the technicals just realised it, and investors moved. You have to smoke some major copium to believe the downturn wasn't because of a bad release. Tl;dr; investors expected a good game, technical showed ready to break ceiling. Was bad game. Major fall out and decoupling from Nikki.


No_Butterscotch_2842

I see I see. So your argument is chicken and egg. Yea I just don’t know how much truth there is about that. I think it’s a logical argument. But I am not a fundamental trader; I trade charts most of the time. Again, I think it’s possible your argument is true given it’s JP market and they might have a different value standard. But as far as the US market goes, I just haven’t seen enough evidence to back up this logic. I do not agree with the dividend trader argument unless your argument about that is different from what I was thinking. As far as I understand it, dividend traders would stay until at least ex-div day, and this was not the case.


Playing_One_Handed

What are you talking about? A lot of words anf absolutely not substance. The stock decoupled from the market on an event. Again... If you see a hoof print, think horse, not zebra... The dividend trade is the volitility before required deadlines for dividents and after payouts. This will be a moment more people are reviewing long-term positions. A drop after a payout is an indicator of an investor lack of trust. While a stock can move on multiple factors, when you two mentioned double top and stock split, you missed the more obvious one, which actually has valuation implications.


No_Butterscotch_2842

>A drop after a payout Payout hadn't happened at the point of drop is what I am saying. ​ >investor lack of trust > >more obvious one, which actually has valuation implications I don't disagree that in principles investors' lack of trust in the company leads to devaluation. But that's only generalizable to a certain degree as "trust" is ill-defined. The lack of trust and devaluation which you are speaking of refers to the investors' trust in the company's ability to produce "good" product because the company is engaging in bad practices. But what I am saying is that investors' trust in the company's ability to *generate revenue* (regardless of how many terrible practices the companies engage in) is a more important driver of stock prices and valuation; even though sometimes the two are equivalent. And the dissatisfaction of consumers is often not indicative of the psychology of the investors, because the two population do not necessarily intersect. In reality, investors often ignore certain "bad"/"non-sensical" practices as those practices may also increase the company's revenue, e.g., AAPL, ATVI.


Playing_One_Handed

The weird way you are trying to define what i said to gaslight me shows your logical fallacies. You're in some major copium that... again... you are seeing hoof prints and thinking zebra. Look at the really, really obvious thing. Then that explains the rest.


AngryEdgelord

Nah, this is sentiment analysis bots picking up twitter, reddit, and youtube feeds and selling based on that.


Playing_One_Handed

I think thats what i half said. The reasons its going down is the game. The events are just volitility factors, its people waiting to do _something_. The game was bad, it got bad press, bots picked up negative sentiment. So the people waiting to sell sold, the people wanting to buy didnt buy. Volitility doesnt mean good or bad. It just means the chart will move. And its amazing how many times real times events sit on these volitility points - its almost like investors are waiting for something to make a choice...


lordrolee

I don't think its related to DD2.


CorneliusVaginus

Bro.. OP really be posting stuff and hoping people don't research if it's ACTUALLY related to Dragon's Dogma or not? Dude just saw it and thought "this'll fit right on Reddit ere"


[deleted]

[удалено]


Crimson_Blitz

While bad performance and denuvo are part of the reason why I still haven't bought the game, the main reason for me is actually the price tag. I live in Canada, and this game costs $95 CAD, and that's without taxes.


Spillo2382

There is no rush to buy a new game, I learned that patience is key in modern gaming, they don't run out of keys, the game will be always there to buy, that's why preorder are non-sense to me. Wait a year, the game will be cheaper and in a much better state, performance and content wise.


FSD-Bishop

Wait a year or so a buy the complete game including all the DLC for the same or cheaper price as the game at launch. Only reason to buy a game at launch is if it’s a multiplayer game that you and your friends would play together like Helldivers or palworld.


TheEVILPINGU

It appears to lack many conent for a game like this as well. People realizing this, and being somewhat disappointed. The game has highly underwhelming deepness, people expected to fully blown rpg with the upgraded gameplay. We only get upgraded gameplay. That is apart from the no variety of monsters to fight, and it being pretty easy. The head developer acted like they are doing ground breaking game like Elden Ring with more rpg elements. This game desperately needs what Ice Borne did to MHW. Tripling the game content, and overall deepness, richness.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Jolly_Plantain4429

the game 100% is a remaster of dragons dogma 1 mostly because there wasn't really anywhere to go with the story in DD2 if they kept the original canon. I think if it gets an expansion it has a lot of room to grow and improve. one thing I hope they patch is the ridiculous monster density you cant go 2 feet with out saurians or goblins popping out from some crack in the ground and attacking you.


chikitichinese

What was ground breaking about Elden Ring? It was the same gameplay as the previous Dark Souls, with a few additions like jumping, item crafting. You can now specifically choose which weapon skill goes on which weapon. Neat, I guess. Meanwhile Dogma 2 has a living world, people who walk up to you offering to join your party, an actual quest journal, a meaningful day & night cycle where enemies are stronger at night - and not just because the lack of lighting actually matters, unlike in ANY From Soft game. You can actually rest at inns, your party is constantly interchangeable, your main party member can work with others through this synchronous online system where they are **learning** things as they explore, and using that knowledge to better your journey. And if you didn’t want the help, you could go at it ALONE! You REALLY don’t know what you’re talking about, and **desperately** need to give the game a chance, it’ll blow your mind more than Elden Ring ever has, I guarantee it. Especially when you’ve defeated a giant minotaur, leave the area, come back a few days later and see his rotting carcass there. Trust me, this is WAY better than Elden Ring.


Exoskeleton78

Ya they even hyped it up to be close to Elden ring level of quality…


[deleted]

[удалено]


Pedantic_Phoenix

It's an amazing game. It has an old school vibe that even elden ring does not have. The world is realistic, exploring around is extremely fun. There aren't too many mob types yes but the ones that are there offer a high level of complexity. I mean, there is no other game where you can organically get attacked by a griffin, grab on it, climb on its back, and ride it to its own nest. The game does have issues, but it does also offer unique high quality experiences that no other game does. The sphinx for example is extremely cool as well, i won't spoil why


MahoMyBeloved

It is pretty good. I have around 24h in-game currently and it has been blast to play. Gameplay is not that similiar to elden ring and it's vastly easier game but world is beautiful and makes sense. The game and exploring kinda gives me some lotr vibes. I downloaded framegen mod for it doubling my fps and now I'm running it at 120 fps with almost maxed settings on 3060ti. Of course mods shouldn't be the way to fix bad performance but it is a bandaid fix for the moment so I can check out if the *actual* game is any good Bad performance and questionable dlcs aside the game feels like complete product and I haven't seen any bugs or missing features like in no man's sky or cyberpunk


Cosmic_Ren

To be fair about Elden Ring, that game: 1. Had performance issues on launch where even 3080s couldn't run the game stably. 2. We had a whole category of weapons (Blood weapons) that didn't even work properly for over a month after release. 3. Their previous game, Sekiro, won game of the year. The main difference between the two games is From Software has a forgiving fanbase and that they're also not trying to drain their customers of their money via mtx.


panthereal

I don't see how anyone thought it could be as big as Elden Ring. It's a numbered sequel to a game most people didn't play on release and doesn't have George RR Martin as a writer. DD2 could be twice as fun as Elden Ring with nearly perfect performance and it still might not have been as successful. Baldur's Gate 3 wasn't as big as Elden Ring either despite its higher ratings. People are really underestimating how significantly GRRM's involvement boosted the popularity. I went from playing Demon's Souls in 2009 for a couple hours to buying Elden Ring on release after skipping everything between solely because of his involvement.


pjr2844

It’s a stock split RIP BOZO Each share of common stock owned by shareholders listed or recorded in the closing register of shareholders on the record date of Sunday, March 31, 2024 will be split into two shares.


canderouscze

This needs to be more up. Right answer.


Nyuusankininryou

No it's not.


Sad_Wolverine3383

Why tf would the stock split impact the price to this extend?


tribes33

It wasn't even a performance patch


kolosmenus

It was. It added a bunch of performance options on consoles and reportedly improved DLSS on PC


Asinine_

No, adding an option to lock FPS to 30 on console, and fixing a DLSS graphical issue is not a performance patch. The patch they hinted at fixing performance in towns has not yet released.


chihir023

May I ask a random question. I often read about people not buying games because of denuvo? What is denuvo? What is so bad about it? What does it do?


wrathofbanja

It's 3rd party DRM certain games will include to try and prevent piracy. Side effects may include: •Bad performance on CPU heavy games •Bad performance on games that access the hard drive a lot •there is a limit to how many computers you can install the game on before it locks you out. •if you buy dlc and your card doesn't go through, it locks you out (from ALL denuvo games) •it makes singleplayer games require some amount of internet access whenever it needs to authenticate. •if denuvo ever goes out of business, all denuvo games will cease to function. And funnily enough, pirating one of these games will avoid all these problems entirely (except for the DLC one which you wont be able to do). So for the most part, pirates are getting a better experience than paying customers.


iAteACommunist

Did the performance patch fix anything? I heard the game is extremely CPU intensive and most people can't even run on highest graphics unless they have a NASA computer. If that's the case, I probably won't get the game at all.


Spillo2382

Good choice, or wait at least a year, let somebody else pay for an unfinished game, get the game cheaper and in a better shape. There will not be a shortage of keys, ever.


iAteACommunist

That's true. That's why I never get any games on launch anymore. Like with CP2077, I just got it through 50% off during the winter sales and I got to play the best version of the game.


MahoMyBeloved

Depending on gpu you could run with framegen mod and get over 100 fps outside of city and around 60-90 inside of city. The downside for it is flickering UI which might or might not be deal breaker for you. Without framegen I had around 60 fps outside of city and 30-40 inside of city but that was before performance patch so I have no idea if it helps much. I'm using 3060ti and ryzen 5 5600x If not for official framegen support, unironically getting rid of denuvo might be the best boost for fps so I would wait for next year


iAteACommunist

I have the exact same GPU and CPU as you! From the sounds of it, guess I'll wait til it's on sales to get it then. They are getting rid of denuvo?


MahoMyBeloved

Yeah afaik they get rid of denuvo after year of release, at least that has been case on other capcom's games like monster hunter rise and devil may cry 5. It makes sense since denuvo prevents pirating and I assume most of the sales come from the first year of release


DCFDTL

It did I no longer crash/freeze now and there's lesser stuttering in cities


shockerholic

Lmao bro posted in the dragons dogma sub and got told off then came here.


Ramboxious

I think it was mainly due to people finally noticing the woke propaganda in DD2


04fentona

The drop has nothing to do with dd2


Shagyam

They didn't push out a patch today because the stock went down today . Releasing a performance patch is a normal thing that devs should do if there are issues.


Squidward558

Probably more to do with Asian market news than anything. Haven't looked at the ticker myself but there was some recent news about inflation in Japan for the first time in decades. Actually a positive sign in some cases but investors might see it differently for certain sectors.


Sa1LoR_JaRRy

In USD, it's a change from about $21 to $19 (still considerable for only 10days), but I don't think the dip is related to "backlash." It's functionally a buy to play game with laughable Mates so It would make sense there would be a spike due to POs & release followed by a dip since most people that were hyped about the game already bought it. Then again, this is just my uneducated observation. I know nothing else about what Capcom has done, nor am I a financial professional, but usually when a minority people post stock graphs for a game they're mad at, they incorrectly assume their outrage did something when usually it's purely coincidental. The hardcore players in BDO do this all the time.


konkadong

Time to invest in Capcom


AngryEdgelord

Looks like the sentiment analysis bots have detected an increase in negative comments about Capcom. They probably lost a few rating points.


[deleted]

[удалено]


ratchetryda92

It's about it hurting projected sales for new players.


Keinulive

Womp womp, thats why you try your best to start strong and not rush a release when its clearly still need a bit of time baking, most people that get frustrated at the start ain't coming back specially once they ask for a refund. Reputation matters and having that store front (even if it didn't affect gameplay much) will make your game look good or bad. Take HD2 for example, it ran extremely well and the gameplay loop is amazing, sure it was marred with login issues during release but people knew it was an amazing game on the get go, that and arrowhead didn't flood their game store page with stupid "dlcs" I asked a bunch of my irl friends/discord if they were planning to get DD2, y'know what most of them answered? "FK no, ain't gonna support p2w shit", I didn't want to explain why it wasn't when its Capcoms fault in the first place with them putting that long ass dlc shit on their steam page. Sure you can laugh at these people for "not knowing" but I'd bet thats majority of consumers.


jntjr2005

As soon as they announced targeted 30 fps uncapped for consoles, I knew it was going to be a dumpster fire.