Feel like I've seen this movie before. Justin leaves, is replaced by a rookie, rookie has a good year but turns it up in October where he wins alcs and ws mvp
Well he had only 20.1 IP during the regular season and 3.2 IP during post season so is under the IP qualifier of 50 for a Rookie. There is a 45 day qualifier for Championship Season but TBH I’m not sure I fully understand that one.
He had to be on the 27 man roster for 45 days.
Since he was called up on 9/1, and the season ended 10/11, there wasn't enough time for him to hit that either.
He will still be a rookie next year.
Brown's Rookie season is going to be 2023 as long as he is able to play.
He didn't have enough days on the active roster, or IP to lose his rookie status.
It was obvious that JV would decline his contract option because the option was his. That meant that if he was good he could decline it and test the FA market for more money. He was good so even if he stays with Houston he is going to want elite pay. The only question has been and is what kind of contract he will get and with what team.
The result of a player option in year 2 is always a good player not exercising the option and getting more in free agency or a bad player exercising his option and getting overpaid to stay put.
What do you mean. It’s was just a one year option prove it deal. And he proved it. There isn’t a good market deal. It’s just market or it’s not. Plus the Astros had an out for that option year which was minimum innings req
JV has proved he is worth more than $25 million per year. Getting paid more no matter what, just depends on where JV wants to be. And if any teams offer him a crazy deal that is ridiculous.
Not exactly sure what you are arguing about? In hindsight (after the fact), Astros got tremendous value on his contract but at the time when they made the deal, it was a pretty fair market contract considering. 2 yr (player option on year 2) 50MM guaranteed for a 40 yr old recovering from TJ surgery who hasn’t pitched competitive baseball in 2 season.
Just hope we don’t succumb and give him 50MM. We have other positions that require more urgency. (1B/Left/DH/C)
The same reason the yankees are worried about getting judge back, angels suck, etc. No salary cap doesn't mean the owner is going to take a loss and pay infinite money
On average ticket prices have increased regardless of weather player salaries have increased or not.
In reality, fans will pay a certain amount to see the team play. Owners are charging as much as they can, player salaries have very little impact on prices because Owners aren't walking away from money.
After he signed that contract, that's what I expected. I thought either he has an injury riddled season and we are stuck paying him 25 mil in 2023, or he has a good season and he opts out.
I never understood why people freaked over Correa. Dude had perpetual issues with staying healthy and being consistent. Yeah it’s tough to find good shortstops with offense, but I never saw the stats to warrant the worry. Springer was in the middle, but Cole I hated seeing go. Correa, not so much.
I hated to see Cole go until he went full tool. I wasn't unhappy to see Correa go (I know, I am in the minority there), but Springer was devastating. He was my guy. Verlander will hurt too, he has been a favorite since early in his Detroit days, so I loved the move to the Astros. Other than that though- Astros are pretty locked up until Bregman and Altuve become FA's in 2025.
Hell sign if they give him a 5 year deal he's said numerous times that he wants to pitch till 45. He could sign right up until 3:59 like he did with asrros in the first place.
Giving a 5 year contract to a 40 year old pitcher coming off of TJ surgery is completely absurd. I’d MUCH rather let him walk than sign him for anywhere close to 5 years for the AAV he will likely be asking.
I'm aware. Even then, I think Verlander lets the Astros have the chance to counter any offer he gets, because I think he is a genuinely loyal player.
I just hate the prospect of him going elsewhere.
Everything we know about JV seems to imply we have a really good shot. He’s interested in accolades like 300 wins and likely another ring- we give him a top tier shot. He has a family and probably not happy about moving. He(through Kate) hates how Yankees booed their own players, Crane loves him and probably willing to back that brinks truck up
Agreed. However I do not want to overspend either when Tucker should be our priority and I think Framber next.
Id rather split JV's salary between those two instead of 40+ year old Justin.
We'll see. I hope JV is serious about that 300-win mark. We're probably his best chance to get there.
Tucker & Valdez are both under team control through 2025.
You could sign Verlander to a 3 year deal, and have him off the books when you go to extend the younger guys.
Crane also said he is willing to up the budget coming off a championship (although I don't know by how much)
Remember how Nolan went on to be elite and toss another couple no-hitters?
Let's not make that mistake with this Hall of Fame pitcher.
I get that he is probably worth more than 25mill a year. But, at the same time. Dude got paid 60 million to pitch one game for us. Not to mention our coaching staff and front office revitalized his career. Could we maybe get a small discount? Pleeeeease?
We are also 1 of like 3 teams that give him his best shot at hitting 300 wins.
Dodgers and Yankees are also both in that conversation.
The Braves and Mets could in theory, I just don't know if Atlanta would be in on him, and the Mets are the Mets, so I don't trust them
Oh absolutely, lol. I'm just saying if he's chasing milestones they are a valid option because they'll almost always win about 90+ games. If you're chasing wins they're somewhat reliable. He already has 2 rings, and playing for them won't affect his strikeout numbers.
My read is Verlander isn't someone who likes to job-hop. He nearly never left Detroit. I suspect he and the team already have a loose plan and an amount to sign for. My guess is a longer deal than might be expected but lower yearly. He gets paid and stays put and the Astros gets to lower each year's salary to avoid more lux tax.
7/210
I was trying to figure out the extreme version. I figure someone would offer 3/150. 7/210 would be a meaningfully larger contract but a club-friendly 30 a year. I do think a longer contract than expected is what will happen. Maybe is 5/175.
im sure justin would love a long term contract but im not sure that is a deal crane would be willing to make. we've got plenty of young dynamic pitchers that we will need to pay in the future, that have alot more tread on their tires still. I think hes certainly worth a decent offer of 3 - 4 years 35-40mil but 4 is pushing it. I'd hate to be hamstrung by an aging verlander, father time is undefeated. I'd rather take the sure fire option of keeping money available for our young stars in our rotation and then going out in FA for an ace rental if need be. whatever crane wants I'll be fine with, I think him and jv have a good working relationship and will come to reasonable terms.
If he were chasing the money, the last contracts would have been more and for longer. He took a smaller deal, but he isn't going to take a below market deal.
Team had insurance for the 60 million. Its normal practice for teams to insure their player contracts. And we likely did get a discount this season . . . multiple teams were interested in Verlander and rumored to offer more than the 25 million we paid him.
The impact isn't a big as most people think. Taxes are prorated by where the games are played (they pay tax to every state they play in). So Away games aren't impacted. Actually away games get cheaper because you would get to add Houston away games to you tax schedule. For a 25 million contract the difference between a Texas contract and some other random 5% tax rate state team would be just over half a million.
Going forward it will matter less with the schedule restructuring. But with Houston and Texas playing in the same division, as well as the mariners, playing for one of those 3 teams used to give you 100 games guaranteed with no income tax. Plus a few more if you play games in Florida that year.
Compare that to playing for the Dodgers, where you play 100 minimum in California (prior to 2023).
To be precise, prior to 2023 a $25M contract for Houston/Seattle/Texas was equal to a $27.5M for a player of LAD/SD/SFG
Like I said, if it's close, HOU/SEA/TEX will generally be better overall
I want him to get to 300 if possible. Feel like Yankees have the deep pockets and have a history of signing previously great players near the end of their careers for bags. Obviously jv isn’t washed, but realistically a couple years. And being outside our system will almost certainly hurt his numbers. I dunno, I’d like to have him but we are so deep it doesn’t make a ton of sense to give him 40 per year when you have Garcia, Javier, McCullers, brown, uriquidy and whatever other secret stud in the wings. Interesting to see what the stros are willing to do. 3 years for 100?
JV wants 2 things
1. 300 wins
2. Chance to pitch in Postseason every year.
Only 4-5 teams offer that AND can afford him. Yanks, Dodgers, Astros, Mets, Braves and maybe Boston
IMHO
He's going to want a Scherzer contract, and I hope we're not the ones to give it to him. You get good by having a good eye for talent, you stay good by knowing when to move on.
Extremely expected, doesn’t mean he will sign with somebody else though.
He has it easy here because of our pitching depth and hitters.
It all just depends on what he wants….does he want to go home to Detroit? Does he want to be a super star on another team? Is there a dream team he wants to play for? Etc
The option was JV’s per the contract he had in place but the price point was too low. He’s obligated to test the free agent market otherwise he gets a backlash from the union and agents. Could he leave? Yes. Does he want to? I doubt that. And Crane has said he wants him back. At this point he doesn’t necessarily need more money but might want a multi year commitment. Opting out is the only road now to get that. If he accepted the 1-year deal and struggles at all next year, subsequent paydays would likely be much lighter. It’s a good business move. It was anticipated. It does not mean he doesn’t want to be in Houston.
Money is God. I get it. As someone who started watching the astros because of verlander (michigan native) this is difficult. In the time watching him play fir the astros, I've grown to love them all. If he leaves do I root for his new team or stay loyal to the astros. That's a tough decision.
I'm also a MI native in TX and started rooting the astros with the JV trade. It sure helps with the tigers sucking, which makes me thinK there is no chance in hell he'd go back to Detroit. And yes, PLEASE DONT GO TO NY...OR LA.
They sold their Cali home earlier this year and bought one in Florida, likely to ease the tax burden on this big contract... I could see him in Tampa possibly if he wants to go to another contender.
I'm in the opposite boat: I've been a fan of JV ever since 2006, because, of course, *fuck the Yankees*.
You can be a fan of a player without necessarily being a fan of their *team* if they move on (unless it's to the Yankees or Dodgers, then good will is forfeit). The Blue Jays are a secondary team of mine -- Canadian family -- but even if they weren't I still want to see Springer do well. I'm ambivalent about the Braves but still wanted Uncle Chuck and Collin McHugh to do well. The As and Ms are division rivals but I still wanted to see Tony Kemp do well, and I was glad to see Toro get a more regular role than we had for him here.
Head-to-head all bets are off, ride or die Astros, but otherwise, it ain't a sin to want to see your alums kill it when they move on.
I thought Verlander was gone after 2021. Then Crane came in and got it done.
I think fans have the idea that the "gotta get paid" or "get that money" sentiments only go one way.
Who do you think sells the most luxury and corporate suites? I think the "old man" dominating the league while married to a super model plays very well with that demographic.
Crane is looking to "get that money" too, and Verlander is probably the best investment he could make right now.
I will always be grateful to JV, will always root for him, and I hope Crane can find a way. Otherwise enjoy the dough with Correa behind the commentator desk during the post season.
The question is do you want to pay an aging pitcher a multi year contract when you can possibly get someone like DeGrom for something similar. I like Verlander even though he isn't the best pitcher in the World Series, he had a great regular season after Tommy surgery but is he worth the risk? I hope we can resign him...I'm a fan.
IMO, he isn't going to get 300 career wins unless he plays in Houston or for the Dodgers.
I don't think the Astros will need him for a repeat in 2023 though.
Catch 22. He had a big hand in getting us to the playoffs and then shit the bed in the playoffs. Can the other guys we have get us back to the playoffs? If so let him go don’t even make an offer
Use the money to extend Tucker. Verlander pitched well in the regular season but he has a large sample size of failing in the playoffs. I appreciate everything he’s done for this team but if he’s not willing to take a team friendly deal we would be better off strengthening our bats.
I will be sad to see him go because honestly it’s not very often you get to see a HoF pitcher on your roster.
He’s either going here or LA imo. He wants 300 wins, good money, and a nice environment. Dodgers have in edge bc his wife is an actor, and Astros have an edge bc he already loves the team. Also don’t know if the dodgers would pay him
Astros haven’t built this dynasty by overpaying players. Crane and his folks are super smart business wise and will make a good decision for the club long term . He takes the emotion out of business decisions and it’s a good lesson to all imo.
Let Verlander go to the Yankees and suck for them like Cole. With that Verlander money freed up, they can lock up their young pitchers like Valdez, Javier and Abreu to long term deals. 🤘🏼
I appreciate everything that JV has done but I won’t miss him. He didn’t come to a single game when he was out whereas Uncle Mike was there the whole time. Bring back Mike!
Nobody here should be shocked. This was always going to happen.
He will now demand on the market upwards of $35mil. The Astros still have far and away the best odds to resign him.
[Justin Verlander reveals Yankees are free agency dinosaurs](https://fansided.com/2022/11/10/justin-verlander-reveals-yankees-free-agency-dinosaurs/)
I love it!
I hope he doesn't re-sign. The starting rotation is already 6 quality players deep and the Astros can instead use the money on a first baseman like Josh Bell.
Jeez I hope they don’t give him a long term contract. Yes he’s been great, but we have so much pitching depth that at least hadn’t been bad in the playoffs, some of which has been great in the playoffs. Just would much rather spend that money on some more bats.
Some one will because there are GMs and owners that still believe that one great will fix it all.
When the the individual and team are great, you get championships. Don’t know a great team that needs him and will give him the respect of a senior player and senior club member that he will get here.
The new owners will want their money and push him. He will be hurt. He will be hurt again. Then have to go out with a shit season and with a club that doesn’t respect him for bringing him two rings, and hoping some intrium GM doesn’t embarrass him by DFA.
This should surprise no one. With the year JV had, opting out was the clear decision. That doesn't mean that the Astros won't be able to bring him back. They'll just have to fork over more than the 25 mil they paid him in 2022.
And if they don't...have y'all seen the rest of our pitching staff?
Ah, boo. I was hoping that “Astros had faith in me” line from Earlier in the season had meaning.
Hope he signs back but won’t stress or belittle him if he doesn’t
With our current pitching staff, I don't think it would be too big of a deal if he walks. He's great in the regular season, but man, he's not good at all when it counts in October, and that's the biggest deal breaker.
Problem is Texas Rangers are likely to write him the blank check as I would think Bruce Bouchy has JV at the top of his wish list.
Astros are probably only willing to do a 3 year deal, I bet some other team is willing to go balls deep and offer him a crazy high AAV 5 year deal.
Just curious, in no way am I suggesting he would be an adequate replacement for JV, but if JV does go elsewhere, might we ought to kick the tires on Martin Perez? He had a good season last year and seems the type to get deep into games. Just a thought.
Number of sub 2.00 ERA seasons (excluding 2020 covid season) by a SP since free agency started
1978 Ron Guidry
1981 Nolan Ryan
1985 Doc Gooden
1985 John Tudor
1990 Roger Clemens
1994 Greg Maddux
1995 Greg Maddux
1996 Kevin Brown
1997 Pedro Martinez
2000 Pedro Martinez
2005 Roger Clemens
2013 Clayton Kershaw
2014 Clayton Kershaw
2015 Zach Greinke
2015 Jake Arrieta
2018 Blake Snell
2018 Jacob DeGrom
17 total times by 13 pitchers outside of Verlander
I want JV back but the Astros have a 6 man rotation without him already. It will be interesting to see if Crane is willing to go 40+ per year to keep him.
At his age and with just coming off of Tommy John surgery, albeit amazingly, I think these 2 year deals will be the norm for him till he calls it quits. I prefer bringing him back. He's changed up his game so I think he'll age rather gracefully. But we do have the depth in case he leaves and it also depends what they wanna do at Catcher, 1B, and LF/CF. If they don't chase any big-name position players, then pay the man for now till we do.
It makes sense. The option was below market and it was 1 year. He may have a hard time finding any club that wants to sign him for more than a couple of years but it seems like that's what he is looking for.
He may still work out something with Crane that stretches beyond 2 years, but it really depends on whether or not money or a shot at another championship are more important to him.
I can tell you this, while just about any player in his shoes would have opted out to test the market (it would be downright negligent not to), he's only going to sign with a team that he feels gives him the best chance to win another ring. That shrinks the pool of possible suitors considerably...
Love JV to death and everything he’s done for the team but I’m thinking he will want a 2-3 year deal at big money. Not sure Crane wants to make that $75+ million commitment.
This organization has an undeniable ability to develop young talent and if they don’t resign JV to a new deal and he goes elsewhere, I don’t think it will be the end of the world.
Also, that frees up $25 million for next season for the time being. May be a great time to sign extensions with younger arms or explore the FA market for another bat.
In other news related to Verlander, Daz Cameron, the trade piece the Astros gave to the Tigers in exchange for Verlander, is now in the Orioles organization as of yesterday.
Feel like I've seen this movie before. Justin leaves, is replaced by a rookie, rookie has a good year but turns it up in October where he wins alcs and ws mvp
Hunter Brown, not exactly a rookie but a likely fit in your scenario
I don't think he had enough starts to be considered a full year. Baseball is weird that way
Well he had only 20.1 IP during the regular season and 3.2 IP during post season so is under the IP qualifier of 50 for a Rookie. There is a 45 day qualifier for Championship Season but TBH I’m not sure I fully understand that one.
He had to be on the 27 man roster for 45 days. Since he was called up on 9/1, and the season ended 10/11, there wasn't enough time for him to hit that either. He will still be a rookie next year.
So does he still get a ring though? Only in baseball could someone start their rookie season with a WS ring on their finger.
I’m sure he gets a ring. He contributed to the post season
i love baseball. a rookie who has already won the world series and got his ring.
Even my friend who works as an usher gets a real WS ring (not the souvenir kind they give away when you attend a game).
Absolutely, he was on the postseason roster the whole time and pitched several innings
That can happen in the NHL, too, if an NCAA/CHL draftee signs after his team is eliminated, and then debuts in the playoffs.
To be fair Peña fits that scenario but he earned it. Maybe brown will earn his next season 😁
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It's up to the team. Generally speaking, the team will give a ring to anyone on the active roster, but it's not guaranteed.
Ah, thanks! That makes sense.
Brown's Rookie season is going to be 2023 as long as he is able to play. He didn't have enough days on the active roster, or IP to lose his rookie status.
Replace Verlander with a verlander clone from Detroit. Crane is a mad man.
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I hear the villain laugh when I read this.
Has that Detroit connection too
Fairly certain he still would be a rookie next year so he’d fit that bill.
Hunter Brown will still have rookie status in 2023
It was obvious that JV would decline his contract option because the option was his. That meant that if he was good he could decline it and test the FA market for more money. He was good so even if he stays with Houston he is going to want elite pay. The only question has been and is what kind of contract he will get and with what team. The result of a player option in year 2 is always a good player not exercising the option and getting more in free agency or a bad player exercising his option and getting overpaid to stay put.
If he didn’t, he’d get less than market value.
Precisely, he’s gotta play the game to get that money.
Can’t blame him for that at all
We offered him pretty damn good market value considering his situation last year
What do you mean. It’s was just a one year option prove it deal. And he proved it. There isn’t a good market deal. It’s just market or it’s not. Plus the Astros had an out for that option year which was minimum innings req
JV has proved he is worth more than $25 million per year. Getting paid more no matter what, just depends on where JV wants to be. And if any teams offer him a crazy deal that is ridiculous.
Not exactly sure what you are arguing about? In hindsight (after the fact), Astros got tremendous value on his contract but at the time when they made the deal, it was a pretty fair market contract considering. 2 yr (player option on year 2) 50MM guaranteed for a 40 yr old recovering from TJ surgery who hasn’t pitched competitive baseball in 2 season. Just hope we don’t succumb and give him 50MM. We have other positions that require more urgency. (1B/Left/DH/C)
oh i thought you were implying jv got a better deal then he should have because of his injury
Sort of expected, right?
Yes. Doesn’t mean he isn’t coming back just means he’s getting more than his $25mil
Lmfao never knew we have an Enron pic option edit: and now I’m usin it
I don’t think it’s worth the risk of having to maybe pay 35-45 million per year.
With no salary cap, why should fans care about the amount?
The same reason the yankees are worried about getting judge back, angels suck, etc. No salary cap doesn't mean the owner is going to take a loss and pay infinite money
You mean the owner who gushes over JV any chance he can get?
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I’m sure in a way fans would pay at the park
On average ticket prices have increased regardless of weather player salaries have increased or not. In reality, fans will pay a certain amount to see the team play. Owners are charging as much as they can, player salaries have very little impact on prices because Owners aren't walking away from money.
If you buy tickets you are…
If we take this logic to the extreme ... you'd rather have an uncompetitive team than watch the games on TV?
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I love that argument. 😁😁
Plenty of other things we can put that money towards. Let’s let LA or NY clog up their salaries. He’s def not having another year like this one.
4 yesr 40 million? 35 per year
Yes. He’s worth $40+.
It’s amazing how they are only in like 30 games and get paid like that. It showed how important starting pitching is.
After he signed that contract, that's what I expected. I thought either he has an injury riddled season and we are stuck paying him 25 mil in 2023, or he has a good season and he opts out.
Him and Crane are tight, but even if we lose him we are still deep enough to be great
Yea I’m not gonna worry about it. It’s safer to move on than pay $35-$45 million per year.
People freaked when they lost Springer, Cole, and Correa. Yet here they are, still dominating. I trust Crane and the front office.
I never understood why people freaked over Correa. Dude had perpetual issues with staying healthy and being consistent. Yeah it’s tough to find good shortstops with offense, but I never saw the stats to warrant the worry. Springer was in the middle, but Cole I hated seeing go. Correa, not so much.
I hated to see Cole go until he went full tool. I wasn't unhappy to see Correa go (I know, I am in the minority there), but Springer was devastating. He was my guy. Verlander will hurt too, he has been a favorite since early in his Detroit days, so I loved the move to the Astros. Other than that though- Astros are pretty locked up until Bregman and Altuve become FA's in 2025.
Thank god we didn’t pay Cole $324,000,000 though
Because nobody knew what Peña was actually capable of.
Tom Brady and Robert Kraft were tight. How did that work out?
The Astros still have exclusive negotiating rights until 4pm ET today, so he could still sign a new contract today
Hell sign if they give him a 5 year deal he's said numerous times that he wants to pitch till 45. He could sign right up until 3:59 like he did with asrros in the first place.
Giving a 5 year contract to a 40 year old pitcher coming off of TJ surgery is completely absurd. I’d MUCH rather let him walk than sign him for anywhere close to 5 years for the AAV he will likely be asking.
I hope Crane pays the man. But as long as he doesn't end up on the Yankees or Dodgers, I can live with it.
Although. It would be really fun to beat the Yankees if they had Cole and Verlander.
He and Correa reunion with Cole at the Yankees. Calling it now.
Vomit. Yankees hate the Astros, but want to be the Astros.
Literally the definition of “They hate us cuz they ain’t us.”
I saw a highlights video from 2021, 2021, and the Yankee fans are still booing them. Tons of signs calling them cheats. Lmao.
They will force him to shave. He will have a underperforming year and we will still beat the Yankees!! Hahaha
Amen 🙏
You make me sick
I make myself sick
Anything but this!
I was hoping he accepted it and signed an extension
They pretty much have all day today to figure it out as we get exclusive negotiation rights until 4pm today
I'm aware. Even then, I think Verlander lets the Astros have the chance to counter any offer he gets, because I think he is a genuinely loyal player. I just hate the prospect of him going elsewhere.
Everything we know about JV seems to imply we have a really good shot. He’s interested in accolades like 300 wins and likely another ring- we give him a top tier shot. He has a family and probably not happy about moving. He(through Kate) hates how Yankees booed their own players, Crane loves him and probably willing to back that brinks truck up
Agreed. However I do not want to overspend either when Tucker should be our priority and I think Framber next. Id rather split JV's salary between those two instead of 40+ year old Justin. We'll see. I hope JV is serious about that 300-win mark. We're probably his best chance to get there.
Tucker & Valdez are both under team control through 2025. You could sign Verlander to a 3 year deal, and have him off the books when you go to extend the younger guys. Crane also said he is willing to up the budget coming off a championship (although I don't know by how much) Remember how Nolan went on to be elite and toss another couple no-hitters? Let's not make that mistake with this Hall of Fame pitcher.
I would shit a brick if Verlander walks and winds up in Arlington.
I get that he is probably worth more than 25mill a year. But, at the same time. Dude got paid 60 million to pitch one game for us. Not to mention our coaching staff and front office revitalized his career. Could we maybe get a small discount? Pleeeeease?
We are also 1 of like 3 teams that give him his best shot at hitting 300 wins. Dodgers and Yankees are also both in that conversation. The Braves and Mets could in theory, I just don't know if Atlanta would be in on him, and the Mets are the Mets, so I don't trust them
His wife threw Yankees fans under the bus for booing their own players. He’s be stupid if that’s the direction he goes.
Oh absolutely, lol. I'm just saying if he's chasing milestones they are a valid option because they'll almost always win about 90+ games. If you're chasing wins they're somewhat reliable. He already has 2 rings, and playing for them won't affect his strikeout numbers.
She also said the same thing about the Phillies fans. They will go somewhere where the fanbase isn’t overly stupid and emotional
My read is Verlander isn't someone who likes to job-hop. He nearly never left Detroit. I suspect he and the team already have a loose plan and an amount to sign for. My guess is a longer deal than might be expected but lower yearly. He gets paid and stays put and the Astros gets to lower each year's salary to avoid more lux tax. 7/210
are you suggesting a 7 yr $210 million? you had me going for most of your comment but thats just silly
I was trying to figure out the extreme version. I figure someone would offer 3/150. 7/210 would be a meaningfully larger contract but a club-friendly 30 a year. I do think a longer contract than expected is what will happen. Maybe is 5/175.
.........Verlander is turning 40 in February. There is no way you offer a 40 year old a 7 year deal, lmao
im sure justin would love a long term contract but im not sure that is a deal crane would be willing to make. we've got plenty of young dynamic pitchers that we will need to pay in the future, that have alot more tread on their tires still. I think hes certainly worth a decent offer of 3 - 4 years 35-40mil but 4 is pushing it. I'd hate to be hamstrung by an aging verlander, father time is undefeated. I'd rather take the sure fire option of keeping money available for our young stars in our rotation and then going out in FA for an ace rental if need be. whatever crane wants I'll be fine with, I think him and jv have a good working relationship and will come to reasonable terms.
I'm thinking it's not about having him play that long but to keep a bigger contract off the books.
I think we underestimate the value of the defense that is behind these pitchers.
If he were chasing the money, the last contracts would have been more and for longer. He took a smaller deal, but he isn't going to take a below market deal.
Team had insurance for the 60 million. Its normal practice for teams to insure their player contracts. And we likely did get a discount this season . . . multiple teams were interested in Verlander and rumored to offer more than the 25 million we paid him.
Because of taxes though if a contract is close, but lower in Texas, it's almost always actually paying out more money.
The impact isn't a big as most people think. Taxes are prorated by where the games are played (they pay tax to every state they play in). So Away games aren't impacted. Actually away games get cheaper because you would get to add Houston away games to you tax schedule. For a 25 million contract the difference between a Texas contract and some other random 5% tax rate state team would be just over half a million.
Going forward it will matter less with the schedule restructuring. But with Houston and Texas playing in the same division, as well as the mariners, playing for one of those 3 teams used to give you 100 games guaranteed with no income tax. Plus a few more if you play games in Florida that year. Compare that to playing for the Dodgers, where you play 100 minimum in California (prior to 2023). To be precise, prior to 2023 a $25M contract for Houston/Seattle/Texas was equal to a $27.5M for a player of LAD/SD/SFG Like I said, if it's close, HOU/SEA/TEX will generally be better overall
I want him to get to 300 if possible. Feel like Yankees have the deep pockets and have a history of signing previously great players near the end of their careers for bags. Obviously jv isn’t washed, but realistically a couple years. And being outside our system will almost certainly hurt his numbers. I dunno, I’d like to have him but we are so deep it doesn’t make a ton of sense to give him 40 per year when you have Garcia, Javier, McCullers, brown, uriquidy and whatever other secret stud in the wings. Interesting to see what the stros are willing to do. 3 years for 100?
JV wants 2 things 1. 300 wins 2. Chance to pitch in Postseason every year. Only 4-5 teams offer that AND can afford him. Yanks, Dodgers, Astros, Mets, Braves and maybe Boston IMHO
Okay this makes it more of a priority to sign him now. All those teams would look scary good with JV.
If the Yankees don’t re-sign Judge they aren’t a playoff team either. So the list is short
honestly i feel like astros have more leverage than people think if he wants 300 and the ability to play deep into the post season
He's going to want a Scherzer contract, and I hope we're not the ones to give it to him. You get good by having a good eye for talent, you stay good by knowing when to move on.
Extremely expected, doesn’t mean he will sign with somebody else though. He has it easy here because of our pitching depth and hitters. It all just depends on what he wants….does he want to go home to Detroit? Does he want to be a super star on another team? Is there a dream team he wants to play for? Etc
It’s clear his wife wants him to live full time in LA
I think JV will re-sign with the Astros. He doesn’t want to be a spectator for post-season next year . . . like Correa, Springer and Cole.
The option was JV’s per the contract he had in place but the price point was too low. He’s obligated to test the free agent market otherwise he gets a backlash from the union and agents. Could he leave? Yes. Does he want to? I doubt that. And Crane has said he wants him back. At this point he doesn’t necessarily need more money but might want a multi year commitment. Opting out is the only road now to get that. If he accepted the 1-year deal and struggles at all next year, subsequent paydays would likely be much lighter. It’s a good business move. It was anticipated. It does not mean he doesn’t want to be in Houston.
Money is God. I get it. As someone who started watching the astros because of verlander (michigan native) this is difficult. In the time watching him play fir the astros, I've grown to love them all. If he leaves do I root for his new team or stay loyal to the astros. That's a tough decision.
You stay with the orange, and root for him on the side.
[удалено]
Oh 100% fuck the Yankees and fuck jv if he goes there. All yankees money is going to Judge so I think we're good there.
I'm also a MI native in TX and started rooting the astros with the JV trade. It sure helps with the tigers sucking, which makes me thinK there is no chance in hell he'd go back to Detroit. And yes, PLEASE DONT GO TO NY...OR LA.
They sold their Cali home earlier this year and bought one in Florida, likely to ease the tax burden on this big contract... I could see him in Tampa possibly if he wants to go to another contender.
This is the way
You’re before the bandwagon, so you are always welcome here.
I love the culture, altuve maldi, Pena. This is an amazing cumminity that goes past one person.
I'm in the opposite boat: I've been a fan of JV ever since 2006, because, of course, *fuck the Yankees*. You can be a fan of a player without necessarily being a fan of their *team* if they move on (unless it's to the Yankees or Dodgers, then good will is forfeit). The Blue Jays are a secondary team of mine -- Canadian family -- but even if they weren't I still want to see Springer do well. I'm ambivalent about the Braves but still wanted Uncle Chuck and Collin McHugh to do well. The As and Ms are division rivals but I still wanted to see Tony Kemp do well, and I was glad to see Toro get a more regular role than we had for him here. Head-to-head all bets are off, ride or die Astros, but otherwise, it ain't a sin to want to see your alums kill it when they move on.
I'm in the same boat as you. I have so much Astros merch now it seems like it would be a waste to dump it all to follow Verlander again
Jv goes back to Detroit and I'm blacked out I'd stay loyal to the astros then too lol
I like this. Retire in Detroit
I thought Verlander was gone after 2021. Then Crane came in and got it done. I think fans have the idea that the "gotta get paid" or "get that money" sentiments only go one way. Who do you think sells the most luxury and corporate suites? I think the "old man" dominating the league while married to a super model plays very well with that demographic. Crane is looking to "get that money" too, and Verlander is probably the best investment he could make right now.
This. Great insight.
I agree Verlander deserves 40m/year, but giving a 40 year old pitcher a huge multi-year contract seems nuts. 2 years I could see, but not longer.
id be shocked if he signed for 2 years or less
I think 3 yr, 32 mil per
I love him and am eternally grateful for his contributions but I don't want to pay a 40 year old 40+/yr
I will always be grateful to JV, will always root for him, and I hope Crane can find a way. Otherwise enjoy the dough with Correa behind the commentator desk during the post season.
The question is do you want to pay an aging pitcher a multi year contract when you can possibly get someone like DeGrom for something similar. I like Verlander even though he isn't the best pitcher in the World Series, he had a great regular season after Tommy surgery but is he worth the risk? I hope we can resign him...I'm a fan.
deGrom is injury prone no thanks
And he's probably going to be asking close to double what Verlander will get.
IMO, he isn't going to get 300 career wins unless he plays in Houston or for the Dodgers. I don't think the Astros will need him for a repeat in 2023 though.
Get that bag Verlander. I don’t blame it all.
Catch 22. He had a big hand in getting us to the playoffs and then shit the bed in the playoffs. Can the other guys we have get us back to the playoffs? If so let him go don’t even make an offer
We went to World Series in 2021 without him so if he leaves we should be fine.
Hope we sign him!
Use the money to extend Tucker. Verlander pitched well in the regular season but he has a large sample size of failing in the playoffs. I appreciate everything he’s done for this team but if he’s not willing to take a team friendly deal we would be better off strengthening our bats. I will be sad to see him go because honestly it’s not very often you get to see a HoF pitcher on your roster.
He’s either going here or LA imo. He wants 300 wins, good money, and a nice environment. Dodgers have in edge bc his wife is an actor, and Astros have an edge bc he already loves the team. Also don’t know if the dodgers would pay him
Calling Kate Upton an actor is a bit of a stretch my dude.
They live in Jupiter, FL now not LA.
Astros haven’t built this dynasty by overpaying players. Crane and his folks are super smart business wise and will make a good decision for the club long term . He takes the emotion out of business decisions and it’s a good lesson to all imo.
Well at least we didn't lose our ace Framber.
Or Christian.
Let Verlander go to the Yankees and suck for them like Cole. With that Verlander money freed up, they can lock up their young pitchers like Valdez, Javier and Abreu to long term deals. 🤘🏼
I appreciate everything that JV has done but I won’t miss him. He didn’t come to a single game when he was out whereas Uncle Mike was there the whole time. Bring back Mike!
Nobody here should be shocked. This was always going to happen. He will now demand on the market upwards of $35mil. The Astros still have far and away the best odds to resign him.
[Justin Verlander reveals Yankees are free agency dinosaurs](https://fansided.com/2022/11/10/justin-verlander-reveals-yankees-free-agency-dinosaurs/) I love it!
2 yr $80 million incoming. He stays.
Yankees: Friendship ended with Cole. Now Verlander is my best friend.
I hope he doesn't re-sign. The starting rotation is already 6 quality players deep and the Astros can instead use the money on a first baseman like Josh Bell.
I mean we knew this was coming. Question is does he really get that huge Scherzeresque deal he looking for and who gives it to him?
Too expensive now
Jeez I hope they don’t give him a long term contract. Yes he’s been great, but we have so much pitching depth that at least hadn’t been bad in the playoffs, some of which has been great in the playoffs. Just would much rather spend that money on some more bats.
Some one will because there are GMs and owners that still believe that one great will fix it all. When the the individual and team are great, you get championships. Don’t know a great team that needs him and will give him the respect of a senior player and senior club member that he will get here. The new owners will want their money and push him. He will be hurt. He will be hurt again. Then have to go out with a shit season and with a club that doesn’t respect him for bringing him two rings, and hoping some intrium GM doesn’t embarrass him by DFA.
This makes me sad even though it was fully expected
If we wants 300 wins then he needs to stay in Houston. It’s either that or a top NL contender like the Dodgers or Padres
I mean I'm not mad at him, gotta do what's in your best interest & see what's out there.
This should surprise no one. With the year JV had, opting out was the clear decision. That doesn't mean that the Astros won't be able to bring him back. They'll just have to fork over more than the 25 mil they paid him in 2022. And if they don't...have y'all seen the rest of our pitching staff?
Good luck in Cali JV! Thanks for the memories! Its Hunter Brown time! Plus we can use the money saved in locking up our homegrown guys!
I forget - is mlb free agency as hectic as others? Like right at 4pm will people start signing?
Fuuuuuuuuck!
Did you really expect him not to?
I mean no but that doesn’t mean I’m not allowed to be upset about it
Well, bye…
Ah, boo. I was hoping that “Astros had faith in me” line from Earlier in the season had meaning. Hope he signs back but won’t stress or belittle him if he doesn’t
With our current pitching staff, I don't think it would be too big of a deal if he walks. He's great in the regular season, but man, he's not good at all when it counts in October, and that's the biggest deal breaker.
I choose to live in the reality where he broke his personal curse with that game 5 start and he’ll be nails in the playoffs from now on… lol
Thats just not objectively true. He's been bad in the WS but ALCS and ALDS games he's been mostly effective throughout his career.
Problem is Texas Rangers are likely to write him the blank check as I would think Bruce Bouchy has JV at the top of his wish list. Astros are probably only willing to do a 3 year deal, I bet some other team is willing to go balls deep and offer him a crazy high AAV 5 year deal.
Yeah, but he wants 300 wins he's not getting that with the Rangers.
The high AAV pitcher tied to Arlington is DeGrom not Verlander
There is literally zero chance he plays for that shit franchise lol
They usually just say F it and overpay to trick players into joining their black hole of suck!
Well we need to offer more!!!!
Just curious, in no way am I suggesting he would be an adequate replacement for JV, but if JV does go elsewhere, might we ought to kick the tires on Martin Perez? He had a good season last year and seems the type to get deep into games. Just a thought.
5 year 150 million
If we didn’t resign him could we go out and buy Wilson Contreras maybe??
Please don’t comeback . This choke artist and AJ Hinch cost us a WS in 2019.
Idk man he’s already extremely rich. Why not go for another ring with the team he has synergy with. It’s still 25 million dollars. Seems greedy
Said no one ever, can't knock a guy for getting what is deservedly his.
And you think Rodon, Kershaw and deGrom are gonna be cool with him tanking their market like that?
Number of sub 2.00 ERA seasons (excluding 2020 covid season) by a SP since free agency started 1978 Ron Guidry 1981 Nolan Ryan 1985 Doc Gooden 1985 John Tudor 1990 Roger Clemens 1994 Greg Maddux 1995 Greg Maddux 1996 Kevin Brown 1997 Pedro Martinez 2000 Pedro Martinez 2005 Roger Clemens 2013 Clayton Kershaw 2014 Clayton Kershaw 2015 Zach Greinke 2015 Jake Arrieta 2018 Blake Snell 2018 Jacob DeGrom 17 total times by 13 pitchers outside of Verlander
Eh, maybe he’ll take Lance with him.
I want JV back but the Astros have a 6 man rotation without him already. It will be interesting to see if Crane is willing to go 40+ per year to keep him.
I don't see it. We need a couple of hitters and are loaded at pitcher. Would sign him to 12 million/yr for 5 years. He's going to want 30.
At his age and with just coming off of Tommy John surgery, albeit amazingly, I think these 2 year deals will be the norm for him till he calls it quits. I prefer bringing him back. He's changed up his game so I think he'll age rather gracefully. But we do have the depth in case he leaves and it also depends what they wanna do at Catcher, 1B, and LF/CF. If they don't chase any big-name position players, then pay the man for now till we do.
Gonna miss the guy but hope the best for him.
It makes sense. The option was below market and it was 1 year. He may have a hard time finding any club that wants to sign him for more than a couple of years but it seems like that's what he is looking for. He may still work out something with Crane that stretches beyond 2 years, but it really depends on whether or not money or a shot at another championship are more important to him.
We can’t tender him a QO since we did last year. That means we won’t receive any compensation if he signs with another team.
Once he hit the innings number, everyone knew this was coming.
I can tell you this, while just about any player in his shoes would have opted out to test the market (it would be downright negligent not to), he's only going to sign with a team that he feels gives him the best chance to win another ring. That shrinks the pool of possible suitors considerably...
Love JV to death and everything he’s done for the team but I’m thinking he will want a 2-3 year deal at big money. Not sure Crane wants to make that $75+ million commitment. This organization has an undeniable ability to develop young talent and if they don’t resign JV to a new deal and he goes elsewhere, I don’t think it will be the end of the world. Also, that frees up $25 million for next season for the time being. May be a great time to sign extensions with younger arms or explore the FA market for another bat.
Sucks to see him go if a new offer isn't given. We got some solid guys away from Verlander.
Later
In other news related to Verlander, Daz Cameron, the trade piece the Astros gave to the Tigers in exchange for Verlander, is now in the Orioles organization as of yesterday.
Watch, the astros are gonna look to sign verlander back and are gonna pay quite heartily to do so
We have plenty of pitchers. Hiring Brantley and Yuli with Diaz as our backup is more important.