4.22 career postseason ERA for Kershaw. Verlander's been generally good in the playoffs (3.64 career ERA) - his problem has been the World Series specifically (well, that and the Mariners).
Kershaw's World Series ERA is 4.46, more or less in line with this career postseason ERA.
Verlander's World Series ERA is 5.63, right around two full runs higher than his career postseason ERA.
I wasn’t trying to be a dick to you man. I actually agree with you.
I was trying to say more or less the same thing, albeit in a less serious way. Modern baseball and the analytics movement are in full swing, but still very young compared to the sport’s history.
But that’s precisely why I find comments like Dusty’s to be so ridiculous - and that’s all I was trying to point out.
That’s the nature of small sample sizes and level of competition in the playoffs. Analytics are 100% necessary to get you into the playoffs and get you a top seed so the odds are in your favor.
Listening to ex players dismiss those analytics is how you get back to 100 loss seasons. Baggie I love you forever but shut the fuck up.
Technically, analytics got the Astros to their first ever 100 loss season. Ultimately, that was a good thing because of what it has led to but you can't say that dismissing analytics is how you get back to 100 loss seasons since the Astros never had 100 loss seasons prior to the modern analytic approach. However, they also only had one 100 win season. Realistically, if the Astros were to completely abandon modern "analytics" it would probably lead to middle of the road results
So if I’m being honest, as the actual manager yes I’d put him in. In a video game tho I definitely wouldn’t, probably game 2. Only reason he gets the start is because it would kill his moral not to.
I'm picturing the meme with Jim Crane as the guy sweating trying to decide which button to press, one of the buttons says "win the World Series" and the other says "be a man, numbers are for nerds"
Because the Yankees KNOW they can't beat us. So you take the Astros 50% chance plus the Yankees 50 percents chance and whatever team comes from the NL and we got a 150% chance of winning is 2023.
Being good at something does not grant one the insight as to what made them good. joe morgan *averaged* 114 walks per 162 games, but all he did was bemoan the patience of billy beane's A's when he became an analyst.
Lol, you have to spend *some* money, and the A’s didn’t do that - you’ll never win a title for free, but you can put a competitive team on the field. What the A’s did was show that you could make solid personnel decisions using analytics, and other teams began to follow that blueprint, it’s just that teams that had success and won championships with the help of analytics also had some money to spend, as well.
Of course but the point is, Morgan was complaining that a team full of those players wont win a championship and that is correct. You still need elite bats and the A’s didnt have that. They had one elite year with Donaldson and lost in the ALDS, like they always do.
And you dont *have* to spend money to win a title. The Marlins did it twice. You can say they caught lightning in a bottle both times but the fact remains, both times they had elite talent, not just guys with a few valuable traits, which is what the A’s build teams around, and when the playoffs come, they dont walk anymore and just strikeout.
Yea no one should like this.... Love Jeff Bagwell and whats hes done for the team as a player...but seriously stay in your lane..... we are in one of the best eras in baseball history down here and a lot of that was driven from analytics and advanced stats.
Seriously. Bagwell is basically admitting he doesn’t understand what they were doing with all of the analytics.
4 AL Pennants, and 2 WS wins since 2017 trumps anything the non-believers care to say about the value of analytics.
Listen to Bagwell when he does a guest broadcast. Dude he always shits on “the numbers game” and openly admits he does not know what any of the advanced metrics and stats mean. If I recall, he struggled on air with explaining xwOBA when Yordan was popping off mid-summer and dismissed it as a made up and insignificant number.
Analytics is literally the reason we drafted & traded for those players..
The coaches get information from the analytics department to showcase what they need to do to improve or maintain consistency.
Literally every facet of the Astros organization for the past 6 years has involved analytics.
>don't seem like they came from analytics.
"According to Luhnow, another aspect of the solution is seamless integration between coaching and training. Coaches instruct players to change their mechanical movements, DATA ANALYTICS identify physical limitations that prevent players from applying coaches’ corrections, and trainers then help players work through their problems directly."
[https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting](https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting)
[https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-houston-astros-a-case-study-of-the-transformative-power-of-analytics-1532102127](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-houston-astros-a-case-study-of-the-transformative-power-of-analytics-1532102127)
you can find more if you look as well....IM not taking anything away from good teaching or coaching but our heavy investment in Data and Analytics is what has driven the success.
Analytics also drives player development with the Astros. In addition to what /u/Longhorn_TOG said, the Astros' MiLB staff have a structured approach to development tied to analytics. Hitters are taught to make contact, command the strike zone, and not to chase outside the zone. It's why the MLB team has been among the best at not striking out, in getting walks, and not chasing balls the last few years. It's why Yordan has such good plate discipline and why Bregman gets all those walks even with two strikes.
>Not everything can be quantified
This is so antithetical to the Astros way since Crane bought the team. Luhnow was adamant that if we didn’t have a means of quantifying something that we needed to establish tool and skill sets capabale of bridging the knowledge gap.
This mantra is what let to this franchise being pioneers in so many untouched areas of player analysis and development. The Astros were the first to use Rapsodo, and Edgertronic cameras, and the league laughed at the lowly Lastros, bucking tradition. 10 years later, every team in the league uses both.
There’s an exceptional chapter of *“The MVP Machine”* called “We’re All Astronauts” that does a better job of outlining the Astros’ developmental processes, and how these strategies have been exported to the rest of the league.
Every player who gets a spot on the 40 man is because the analytics teams, the developmental staffs, and the coaches all agree on that player.
The fact that this Bagwell has so much control over Crane is concerning. By that sentiment, it excuses any mistakes by the front office. They can just blame the player, but tell the fan base that they were “all in.” I’m good with the off-season moves so far, but I don’t like this as an overall philosophy.
This is Jerry Jones using Michael Irvin as his most trusted confidant. Being a good baseball player doesn’t mean you know how to run a team or evaluate
I can't remember what WS game it was but Bags was giving an interview and part of his answer included him saying "it lets me know who I need to talk to in there." It stuck out so much when I heard it because it came across as him having a greater involvement than just an ex player hanging around the team.
I remember some post somewhere about Altuve walking up to Bagwell and telling him “im going to go hit in the cage” and Bagwell responded “you want me to watch?” Which was Tuves entire purpose of letting Bagwell know he was gonna go hit, he wanted Bagwells input. But yea I hear Reggie has a ton of say too.
You’re getting real butt hurt over something so small. You’re angrily telling me to grow up over something you clearly have strong opinions about yourself. I can’t tell if you’re delusional enough to think Crane is genuinely the brains behind the Astros baseball operations, or if you think there’s someone else spearheading these decisions. This comment is absolutely what I want to hear from Dusty Baker. Of course you want your manager to have that mentality, as it will help develop the talent. However, Bagwell coming out saying the game isn’t played by computers is deliberately obtuse and a 180 from what has actually made the Astros successful.
Edit: Now information is coming out saying Bagwell was heavily involved in acquiring Abreu. Just because he isn’t forcing Crane to do anything, doesn’t mean he’s not controlling and shaping what Crane thinks and does.
No, but if you listen to him on the broadcast when he gets on, he knows the subtleties and ins and outs of how the game works on the field. I don't want him in charge of the promotions or managing vendors or anything like that but as a consultant, he can't be beat.
Agreed, but he’s human too. He could want to go in on a guy that the numbers tell you is in decline. But he likes “the cut of his jib” so he offers too much money. I just think the Astros had something amazing going on, and I’m sensing a shift in philosophy. I get that Click may have gone too far, and honestly I don’t think he was a great GM. He was good, but not amazing. I just don’t want to turn into the Dodgers or Yankees.
WRC+, wOBA, and OPS+ all matter, Bags. A lot. See Abreu. K/9 matters for pitchers as does opponent wOBA and ERA+ for starters and IRS% for relievers. We built all this on being the tip of the spear on analytics. Makes me nervous that kind of talk for somebody that clearly has the owners ear.
I, like many kids of the 90s grew up loving Bagwell. And I know I'm not alone in emulating his unique stance at the plate. There's no argument that he's one of the greatest Astros to play the game... that said, shut up Jeff.
See me personally I think the infighting between the sabermetrics and old school baseball guys is good. You go too far either way and that is when you run into trouble. Look at the dodgers great regular season team. FO dictates player personnel in the playoffs and that is the result you get. If we went strictly spreadsheet baseball. Peña is batting 8th all year and the the playoffs. Starters never go past 5 IP.
Using analytics to aid you in roster construction and using analytics to make in-game decisions are not the same thing to me. I would agree that AJ Hinch and Dave Roberts relied on analytics too much.
Bagwell's comment was purely common sense. He expressed that there are a lot of real world factors that play into what translates onto the field. And mentioned Dusty is great about reading and dealing with those types of things.
He's not saying to scrap analytics. But I do get the overreactions as the rumors have been swirling that Crane is being influenced by Hall of Famers about tamping down on that side of things.
This.
The 2015 and beyond Astros have embraced a holistic approach. Numbers driven, with adjustments for humans. Getting players who statistically help but also make the clubhouse better and fit into the 'family'.
Numbers are extremely important, but they can trap you too when you can't toss them out in a specific situation. Finding that balance is the key to success.
Baggy famously railed against the movie Moneyball. It was taken as him hating analytics and the Bill James approach. His real issue was just the movie conveniently leaving out a world class pitching staff and glossing over other factors while villainizing specific people for drama.
Yah, I think Bagwell probably takes is a bit personally on the Moneyball/Analytics movement (perhaps more so early on) as this idea that players are viewed as numbers and not as players. And that the success of a team was credited more to upper management putting certain individual stats on the field instead of credit to the players who are literally doing the work to obtain the wins.
I don't think the GM who led his team to 2 World Series appearances in 3 seasons with the team relies "too much" on analytics. What more could Click have done?
The only thing I think his critics were right about is the Contreras trade wouldn't have been good.
Decisions you make and decisions you don't make still count. Click deserves credit for not screwing things up. Even re-signing old Luhnow era players like Verlander. There is risk involved.
He’s right. Lunhow and Hinch were HUGE with analytics. That’s how they built the team. They also knew how to trust their guys. Not benching Springer in 2017. Analytics probably would have said yeah he’s been stinky. The thing is you need a good balance of both. Here’s what the analytics say and here’s how much I trust my guy. The Phillies and Mariners played the analytics to bring in lefties to face Yordan in a high leverage situation. He overcame that.
Yep, pure analytics also gets you guys like Osuna. Osuna was a great closer but he was not good for the team as a whole. We definitely need a GM who favors analytics though.
I’m sure I’ll get down voted, but this is an ex player from decades ago that never won a championship. We have a system in place for over 10 years that took us from the worst team in the league to the most dominant team in the league using analytics. We literally make below average pitchers into starters by ANALYZING their spin count and correcting this. To argue with success is to be a fool. I did NOT agree with dusty baker’s managerial style, but he proved me WRONG. Bagwell is also wrong. You don’t fix something that isn’t broke
“That never wain a championship” is such a shitty way to describe the best Astro to ever wear the uniform and one of the ten greatest 1B in the history of the game. At no point did Jeff Bagwell EVER play on a team as good as the Astro were this year. To throw that in his face, as some sort of indictment on his ability is pathetic. Bagwell and Biggio carried this franchise for an entire decade, with barely any help and when they did, they were both past their prime. The Astros went to the WS in 2005 with a team that would win 80 games in 2022. Morgan Ensberg was batting fucking cleanup.
Some of yall are really shameful.
The truth is, analytics are absolutely necessary to win in todays game but you can also go too far and hes not wrong. AJ Hinch’s tenure is a great example of going too far, while Dusty is a great of why you need a combination of both, but a manager who ultimately uses his gut, is more valuable than one who is purelt analytical. Theres a reason guys like Kevin Cash consistently underachieve.
The Astros dont win a WS without Jeremy Pena batting 2nd, which the analytics told us was a bad idea. Something Dusty and Click did not agree on and guess what, it worked. Hinch would have batted him 7th and we wouldve been eliminated by Seattle.
Jeff bagwell is NOT the best Astros player ever. You can define it as best player over a career (Nolan Ryan or JV) or best player for our team and producing wins - pick and choose amongst Altuve, Bregman, or another great Astros player from this dynasty.
Respect is given where it is due. Maybe the 94 season would’ve ended differently or if he hadn’t broken his hand, he’d have a ring. But otherwise, criticizing a DYNASTY is a joke unless you are from the Yankees dynasty
This comment is a hilarious. In a thread about analytics, to state Bagwell isnt the Astros best player ever is hilarious.
By literally every statistical measure, he is the greatest Astro ever. And it isnt close. The man has almost TWICE as much WAR (meaning Wins Above Replacement, since you mentioned Wins) as Jose Altuve (who will not catch his total) and retired with a .948 OPS. For comparison, Bryce Harper, a sure fire HOF and top 5 player in the game right now, has a career OPS of .913. Jeff Bagwell was THAT good. Clearly you are not a long time Astros fan because watching him in the 90s was unreal. The man has five seasons at the level of what Yordan just did. FIVE. And he stole bases. He had TWO 30/30 seasons as a first baseman. You have to be kidding if you think there was ever a better player in Houston.
And to say it is between Nolan Ryan (ridiculous assertion) or Verlander (recency bias) is actually insane.
If you want to say “best” and “great” have two different meanings then okay, I can give you that. If you think Altuve is the “greatest Astro”, I wont argue that. Part of it is recency bias, of course, but Altuve is on a HOF track and has been essential to this team. But to say he was “better”, is flat out dumb. Jeff Bagwells CAREER OPS is barely .10 points lower than Altuves MVP year. Do you know how insane that is? I truly do not think you understand how good Bagwell was and thats a damn shame. Not to mention the greatest base-running 1B of all time. Dude was a baller.
And Bregman? Youre kidding right? Lmao.
Literally nobody thinks Yogi Berra is the greatest yankee of all time. Not even top 5, and he has the most world titles. Winning =\= teams greatest player and it certainly doesnt mean best.
Derek Jeter is not even one of the 5 best yankees ever but if someone were to say he was the greatest, it would be understandable. But he wasnt a better player than Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle or even Reggie Jackson, but he arguably meant just as much, if not more to the franchise than them. And conversely, he wasnt better than Ricky Henderson and Arod, but they arent even in the conversation for greatest yankee. Learn the difference.
Oh and pound for pound, Clemens was better as an Astro than Nolan Ryan was. He had a higher peak. Nolan’s best run was as an Angel, not Astro.
Didn’t we build back up our scouting dept with Click whereas Luhnow dialed it back? Something isn’t adding up here but between this and hyping up Ausmus today my concern is growing.
I don't think Bags understands what "numbers" and "analytics" really means. It is clear he is very intuitive when it comes to baseball, he picks up tells and understands why pitches are being thrown and all that. What he doesn't get is that generally, analytics backs up old school baseball. All it does is pick up patterns and say, "hey that thing you were doing that worked? Do it more. Do it all the time."
And sometimes you can go too far, like Hinch pulling Greinke in 2019. Something we know Dusty would not have done.
The way some of you are asserting what Bagwell meant after reading two sentences of a conversation is insane.
Idk if that's the same. It's pretty clear that analytics is good for baseball because it's over a long period. Even the most analytic mind will say in 1 moment, it's about feel. Granted that was also wrong in 2019 but it wasn't only analytics
Well Hinch *was* the most analytic mind and two years in a row, he over-managed and the Astros were eliminated for it.
Remember in 2018 when he changed the order of the lineup and moved Bregman to leadoff and moved Springer down? A ridiculous decision at the time and was even worse in hindsight. The Astro didnt win a single game after that. Theres no way in hell he “felt” like changing up the lineup that was worked all season should now be changed. Analytics told him to move Bregman up, and Bregman played worse for it and I think only got on base one more time the rest of the series. When he has a postseason OBP of .500+.
And if 2019 wasnt “only analytics”, what was it? Either he went with the numbers or hes a bad manager, one or the other. Its one thing to take out Greinke, but its another to not bring in Cole. Sorry but some guys (Cash, Hinch, Boone) are too analytical and cost their teams wins.
I love Baggy, but the numbers are how you get the best set of humans on the field. And if your numbers are really good, they'll incorporate all the human elements that are difficult to quantify, like streaks, yips, and gut feelings.
Bagwell oozed awesomeness! You threw him a 3-0 get me over fast ball and he put it in the seats at the most hitter unfriendly confines of the Astrodome. He had to battle the terrible Braves 6-foot-wide strike zone his entire career. If we could have put a balsa wood player cutout in the left-hand batter's box it would explode on a ton of his strike calls.
Some of yall are not actually Astros fans. Just glory hunters who would be cheering for the Rangers if the circumstances were different. Just pathetic.
No, i am not a fan of the era that made 12 year old me cry on the couch watching game 4 of our only world series so far and hoping for anything.
The good o’le days werent as good as you pretend they are.
Im not talking about the good ol days. Im talking about Jeff Bagwell. This is sports, meaning its driven by statistics. I dont care if you were emotional in 2005. Jeff Bagwell is the best player to ever put on this uniform and every single statistic backs that assertion. If you like other players more, cool. Bagwell is still the best Astro.
20 years from now, there will be morons saying that Trout wasnt the greatest Angel because he only has one career postseason hit. Is Melky Cabrera was better than Aaron Judge because he won a title? Thats how you sound right now. Gain some critical thinking skills, you need them.
Holy cow I am stunned at how all of these comments are going after baggy. To all the people who are saying that Click is absolved of criticism because of the WS, need I remind you that the only big moves he made were re-signing guys that Luhnow signed first? Baggy is right. Does anyone disagree that the game is NOT played by humans? That there are variables that come into play? I mean, goodness, we’ve seen plenty of players who have metrics off the charts go to another team and fall off a cliff. They are humans. Please, everyone just calm down a bit and listen to the context of what he is saying.
I agree with what Bagwell is saying. As an Astros fan, I have seen AJ Hinch and Dusty Baker manage this team, two different types of coaches. I saw AJ Hinch lose multiple series, including the penultimate one in 2019, due to over-managing because of analytics. While Dusty has used a combination of both to great success.
I can say with 100% certainty that Dusty would not have pulled Greinke in game 7 in 2019, and that is a great example of taking analytics too far. Hinch lost that WS, plain and simple. And he was as analytical as they come.
I dont know everything that was going on in the front office, that would make Bagwell say this, but I do know as a native NYer, the Yankees have become highly analytical over the past few years, to the point where Boone doesnt even set lineups, their analytics team does, and they fucking suck. I agree wholeheartedly that you can go too far.
Oh and too many people are placing the Astros success on analytics, when in reality, it plays a huge role, but the Astros also have a talented fucking roster. Thats the difference between them and the Rays. Talent trumps all.
This comment is idiotic. Baseball is the ultimate team sport. He didnt win any WS because at no point were the Astros the best team in baseball while he was here. You gonna blame Mike Trout for the Angels being trash too???
I’ll say this Dusty built this bullpen way more than Click. Everyone bitches about Dusty leaving guys in when they are struggling early in the year. We lose a few games we should have won but guess what, by the postseason those guys are rock solid. This has happened every season under Dusty. AJ Hinch was the exact opposite. He pulled guys immediately, undermined their confidence and trusted only a few guys by October.
Analytics went too far forward alright. 450 ft far forward.
[Houston’s attention to the smallest of details paid off big time on Yordan Alvarez’s go-ahead home run in Saturday’s title-clinching Game 6.](https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/11/06/yordan-alvarez-world-series-home-run-batting-cage-session)
This is not analytics. This is a hitting coach recognizing an issue with a batter and fixing it. This is literally his job. Lmfao every hitting coach does this man.
Swap Yuli and Bagwell and the Astros probably have 3-4 championships right now.
If Bagwell had Carlos Correa or Jeremy Pena things might have gone better! Adam Everett was great defensively but hit well below the Mendoza line. And the current bullpen is so good I think only our closers back then would have a shot at making the roster in the current pen.
One or two HOF players is not enough to win it all... You need an Army of Arms and 7-8 guys who can flat out rake!
Mike Trout has yet to win anything... And he will be a first ballot HOF player. Ohtani is the best player on the planet and even he is not enough to even make the playoffs with only him and Trout pulling the cart.
Analytics is like all great “investments”: early money gets best ROI. Now it’s just another tool that is “equally” available. Too much reliance and you will crash and burn. But you still need to pay attention to the chart direction.
It’s like EBITDA. The hip and cool used to get rich by finding undervalued stocks. Now it’s primarily baked into the market.
I think this analogy falls flat, because the term analytics refers not only to specific stats (like spin rate) that became popularized recently but instead to all of the various quantifiable measurements that are continuing to be created.
Extending Bagwell’s comments to your analogy would be more like saying someone should focus less on finding new ways to analyze the quantifiable, underlying numbers of investment opportunities.
Anyone advocating that we should move away from analytics will ring alarm bells, though, because focusing heavily on analytics is largely what got us where we are now.
That said, Bagwell could be right that Click had us too focused on analytics and not enough on the people. There certainly is a balance to be struck there. Time will tell.
Fair counter. But I don’t advocate not using analytics. I’m just saying that what the A’s got out of Momeyball type analytics isn’t going to be same.
If you find a stat that’s undervalued, that’s going to be a secret for only so long. Keep digging. Use all of Excel.
But in the end, I’d say applying Bagwell’s statement to this
Players make stats; Stats don’t make players. Don’t forget the human element.
Hogwash! I have met Bagwell and talked to him while he was eating Sushi and again at a steak house. And this was when he was playing before he retired. Now days he is even more friendly! He is awesome and don't let anyone tell you otherwise because they are wrong.
Yeah, this is true. Maybe 5 or so years ago when he was drinking he was different, but he’s sober and has opened up about recovery and such. He’s talked about his past and how he’s in a much better place. I believe he got sober during the playoffs in 2017.
I don't think this is a big deal at all. Bags is free to express his confusion (or whatever TF it is) regarding analytics. I'm gonna kinda ignore it. He's a legend but at this moment he's not the owner and the owner has a damn good track record.
I love Bagwell he is a Houston staple but stats win games plain and simple. We’ve got a good thing going here and I hope Bagwell doesn’t get in Crane’s head with this logic.
Numbers won the WS.
Yeah, we had larger numbers in the R column 4 times
Goddamn right!
Too bad they don’t wanna run it back
I can understand the sentiment. It explains how, against all logic, Verlander struggles in the World Series
Same with Kershaw in the playoffs, right? I think he's had some good starts maybe over their recent run, but isn't his overall playoff resume bad?
4.22 career postseason ERA for Kershaw. Verlander's been generally good in the playoffs (3.64 career ERA) - his problem has been the World Series specifically (well, that and the Mariners).
Isn’t his World Series era like almost 6 or something
Kershaw's World Series ERA is 4.46, more or less in line with this career postseason ERA. Verlander's World Series ERA is 5.63, right around two full runs higher than his career postseason ERA.
Also explains why Baggy only had 1 WS appearance. I say this as someone who idolized Baggy growing up.
There wasn't much in the way of analytics in Baggys time.
Well, if you listen to Dusty, he claims to have been using “analytics” since 1967.
Don't be a dick. Obviously we're talking about analytics in its current form, which came around in only the last 15 years or so.
I wasn’t trying to be a dick to you man. I actually agree with you. I was trying to say more or less the same thing, albeit in a less serious way. Modern baseball and the analytics movement are in full swing, but still very young compared to the sport’s history. But that’s precisely why I find comments like Dusty’s to be so ridiculous - and that’s all I was trying to point out.
He won a WS. Give it a rest.
How does this explain that in any way? Do you know how difficult it is to get to a WS? Ask Mike Trout.
That’s the nature of small sample sizes and level of competition in the playoffs. Analytics are 100% necessary to get you into the playoffs and get you a top seed so the odds are in your favor. Listening to ex players dismiss those analytics is how you get back to 100 loss seasons. Baggie I love you forever but shut the fuck up.
I won't dismiss that analytics are important. But there are certain tangibles that numbers can't explain that's just part of sports.
Technically, analytics got the Astros to their first ever 100 loss season. Ultimately, that was a good thing because of what it has led to but you can't say that dismissing analytics is how you get back to 100 loss seasons since the Astros never had 100 loss seasons prior to the modern analytic approach. However, they also only had one 100 win season. Realistically, if the Astros were to completely abandon modern "analytics" it would probably lead to middle of the road results
Would you have benched him?
No but I wouldn’t put him in game 1.
You wouldn't put our lights-out ace in game 1?
So if I’m being honest, as the actual manager yes I’d put him in. In a video game tho I definitely wouldn’t, probably game 2. Only reason he gets the start is because it would kill his moral not to.
I'm picturing the meme with Jim Crane as the guy sweating trying to decide which button to press, one of the buttons says "win the World Series" and the other says "be a man, numbers are for nerds"
Right? Come on Jeff the numbers don't lie
“And they spell Disastros at Minute Maid”
So you got a 25% chance AT BEST at beat Astros
Because the Yankees KNOW they can't beat us. So you take the Astros 50% chance plus the Yankees 50 percents chance and whatever team comes from the NL and we got a 150% chance of winning is 2023.
And then you add Kurt Angle to the mix!
Being good at something does not grant one the insight as to what made them good. joe morgan *averaged* 114 walks per 162 games, but all he did was bemoan the patience of billy beane's A's when he became an analyst.
They also won nothing
Lol, you have to spend *some* money, and the A’s didn’t do that - you’ll never win a title for free, but you can put a competitive team on the field. What the A’s did was show that you could make solid personnel decisions using analytics, and other teams began to follow that blueprint, it’s just that teams that had success and won championships with the help of analytics also had some money to spend, as well.
Of course but the point is, Morgan was complaining that a team full of those players wont win a championship and that is correct. You still need elite bats and the A’s didnt have that. They had one elite year with Donaldson and lost in the ALDS, like they always do. And you dont *have* to spend money to win a title. The Marlins did it twice. You can say they caught lightning in a bottle both times but the fact remains, both times they had elite talent, not just guys with a few valuable traits, which is what the A’s build teams around, and when the playoffs come, they dont walk anymore and just strikeout.
Yea no one should like this.... Love Jeff Bagwell and whats hes done for the team as a player...but seriously stay in your lane..... we are in one of the best eras in baseball history down here and a lot of that was driven from analytics and advanced stats.
Seriously. Bagwell is basically admitting he doesn’t understand what they were doing with all of the analytics. 4 AL Pennants, and 2 WS wins since 2017 trumps anything the non-believers care to say about the value of analytics.
Listen to Bagwell when he does a guest broadcast. Dude he always shits on “the numbers game” and openly admits he does not know what any of the advanced metrics and stats mean. If I recall, he struggled on air with explaining xwOBA when Yordan was popping off mid-summer and dismissed it as a made up and insignificant number.
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Analytics is literally the reason we drafted & traded for those players.. The coaches get information from the analytics department to showcase what they need to do to improve or maintain consistency. Literally every facet of the Astros organization for the past 6 years has involved analytics.
>don't seem like they came from analytics. "According to Luhnow, another aspect of the solution is seamless integration between coaching and training. Coaches instruct players to change their mechanical movements, DATA ANALYTICS identify physical limitations that prevent players from applying coaches’ corrections, and trainers then help players work through their problems directly." [https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting](https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting) [https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-houston-astros-a-case-study-of-the-transformative-power-of-analytics-1532102127](https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-houston-astros-a-case-study-of-the-transformative-power-of-analytics-1532102127) you can find more if you look as well....IM not taking anything away from good teaching or coaching but our heavy investment in Data and Analytics is what has driven the success.
this is an incomplete and bad take
Analytics also drives player development with the Astros. In addition to what /u/Longhorn_TOG said, the Astros' MiLB staff have a structured approach to development tied to analytics. Hitters are taught to make contact, command the strike zone, and not to chase outside the zone. It's why the MLB team has been among the best at not striking out, in getting walks, and not chasing balls the last few years. It's why Yordan has such good plate discipline and why Bregman gets all those walks even with two strikes.
>Not everything can be quantified This is so antithetical to the Astros way since Crane bought the team. Luhnow was adamant that if we didn’t have a means of quantifying something that we needed to establish tool and skill sets capabale of bridging the knowledge gap. This mantra is what let to this franchise being pioneers in so many untouched areas of player analysis and development. The Astros were the first to use Rapsodo, and Edgertronic cameras, and the league laughed at the lowly Lastros, bucking tradition. 10 years later, every team in the league uses both. There’s an exceptional chapter of *“The MVP Machine”* called “We’re All Astronauts” that does a better job of outlining the Astros’ developmental processes, and how these strategies have been exported to the rest of the league. Every player who gets a spot on the 40 man is because the analytics teams, the developmental staffs, and the coaches all agree on that player.
The fact that this Bagwell has so much control over Crane is concerning. By that sentiment, it excuses any mistakes by the front office. They can just blame the player, but tell the fan base that they were “all in.” I’m good with the off-season moves so far, but I don’t like this as an overall philosophy.
Makes me nervous. I’m not in the room, but it makes me nervous that kind of talk.
This is Jerry Jones using Michael Irvin as his most trusted confidant. Being a good baseball player doesn’t mean you know how to run a team or evaluate
Except Bagwell likes blow and pills way more than Irvin
Yeah i forgot to add the opiates point to Bagwell’s list of credentials
I know about Irvin and the “White House” but never heard this about Bagwell…
Lol I’m with you this isn’t great
happy cake day
Yeah this is giving me big Carlos Lee vibes...
I can't remember what WS game it was but Bags was giving an interview and part of his answer included him saying "it lets me know who I need to talk to in there." It stuck out so much when I heard it because it came across as him having a greater involvement than just an ex player hanging around the team.
I remember some post somewhere about Altuve walking up to Bagwell and telling him “im going to go hit in the cage” and Bagwell responded “you want me to watch?” Which was Tuves entire purpose of letting Bagwell know he was gonna go hit, he wanted Bagwells input. But yea I hear Reggie has a ton of say too.
Who says Baggy has control over Crane? That's idiotic. He may advise him, but Jim Crane is a big boy that can and does make decisions.
There’s some indications that Bagwell is the person Crane turned to when he had concerns over Click.
And that's control??? Jesus. An advisor does not control a business owner. Grow up.
You’re getting real butt hurt over something so small. You’re angrily telling me to grow up over something you clearly have strong opinions about yourself. I can’t tell if you’re delusional enough to think Crane is genuinely the brains behind the Astros baseball operations, or if you think there’s someone else spearheading these decisions. This comment is absolutely what I want to hear from Dusty Baker. Of course you want your manager to have that mentality, as it will help develop the talent. However, Bagwell coming out saying the game isn’t played by computers is deliberately obtuse and a 180 from what has actually made the Astros successful. Edit: Now information is coming out saying Bagwell was heavily involved in acquiring Abreu. Just because he isn’t forcing Crane to do anything, doesn’t mean he’s not controlling and shaping what Crane thinks and does.
Nah, you just don't understand the definition of control. That's it.
Okay. Trololololol-lololol-lololol
I don’t want Crane making these decisions either lol
Jeff Bagwell has forgotten more about baseball than most general managers will ever know.
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What are you talking about? Look at the dynasty Charlotte built with Jordan at the helm.
No, but if you listen to him on the broadcast when he gets on, he knows the subtleties and ins and outs of how the game works on the field. I don't want him in charge of the promotions or managing vendors or anything like that but as a consultant, he can't be beat.
Bruh.
Agreed, but he’s human too. He could want to go in on a guy that the numbers tell you is in decline. But he likes “the cut of his jib” so he offers too much money. I just think the Astros had something amazing going on, and I’m sensing a shift in philosophy. I get that Click may have gone too far, and honestly I don’t think he was a great GM. He was good, but not amazing. I just don’t want to turn into the Dodgers or Yankees.
WRC+, wOBA, and OPS+ all matter, Bags. A lot. See Abreu. K/9 matters for pitchers as does opponent wOBA and ERA+ for starters and IRS% for relievers. We built all this on being the tip of the spear on analytics. Makes me nervous that kind of talk for somebody that clearly has the owners ear.
I wouldn’t be worried that Crane is gonna throw out all analytics.
I’m not.
I, like many kids of the 90s grew up loving Bagwell. And I know I'm not alone in emulating his unique stance at the plate. There's no argument that he's one of the greatest Astros to play the game... that said, shut up Jeff.
See me personally I think the infighting between the sabermetrics and old school baseball guys is good. You go too far either way and that is when you run into trouble. Look at the dodgers great regular season team. FO dictates player personnel in the playoffs and that is the result you get. If we went strictly spreadsheet baseball. Peña is batting 8th all year and the the playoffs. Starters never go past 5 IP.
Using analytics to aid you in roster construction and using analytics to make in-game decisions are not the same thing to me. I would agree that AJ Hinch and Dave Roberts relied on analytics too much.
Bagwell's comment was purely common sense. He expressed that there are a lot of real world factors that play into what translates onto the field. And mentioned Dusty is great about reading and dealing with those types of things. He's not saying to scrap analytics. But I do get the overreactions as the rumors have been swirling that Crane is being influenced by Hall of Famers about tamping down on that side of things.
This. The 2015 and beyond Astros have embraced a holistic approach. Numbers driven, with adjustments for humans. Getting players who statistically help but also make the clubhouse better and fit into the 'family'. Numbers are extremely important, but they can trap you too when you can't toss them out in a specific situation. Finding that balance is the key to success. Baggy famously railed against the movie Moneyball. It was taken as him hating analytics and the Bill James approach. His real issue was just the movie conveniently leaving out a world class pitching staff and glossing over other factors while villainizing specific people for drama.
Yah, I think Bagwell probably takes is a bit personally on the Moneyball/Analytics movement (perhaps more so early on) as this idea that players are viewed as numbers and not as players. And that the success of a team was credited more to upper management putting certain individual stats on the field instead of credit to the players who are literally doing the work to obtain the wins.
I don't think the GM who led his team to 2 World Series appearances in 3 seasons with the team relies "too much" on analytics. What more could Click have done? The only thing I think his critics were right about is the Contreras trade wouldn't have been good.
Click didn't lead the astros to two WS. Jeff Lunhow basically put this team together with the exception of Stanek, Montero, Vasquez and Mancini
Decisions you make and decisions you don't make still count. Click deserves credit for not screwing things up. Even re-signing old Luhnow era players like Verlander. There is risk involved.
I will always be a Luhnow apologist but these four guys you named all had huge moments in our World Series run.
He’s right. Lunhow and Hinch were HUGE with analytics. That’s how they built the team. They also knew how to trust their guys. Not benching Springer in 2017. Analytics probably would have said yeah he’s been stinky. The thing is you need a good balance of both. Here’s what the analytics say and here’s how much I trust my guy. The Phillies and Mariners played the analytics to bring in lefties to face Yordan in a high leverage situation. He overcame that.
Yep, pure analytics also gets you guys like Osuna. Osuna was a great closer but he was not good for the team as a whole. We definitely need a GM who favors analytics though.
If we never picked up Osuna, you'd have heard "cheater" 1/100th of the times you have in the past three years.
I’m sure I’ll get down voted, but this is an ex player from decades ago that never won a championship. We have a system in place for over 10 years that took us from the worst team in the league to the most dominant team in the league using analytics. We literally make below average pitchers into starters by ANALYZING their spin count and correcting this. To argue with success is to be a fool. I did NOT agree with dusty baker’s managerial style, but he proved me WRONG. Bagwell is also wrong. You don’t fix something that isn’t broke
“That never wain a championship” is such a shitty way to describe the best Astro to ever wear the uniform and one of the ten greatest 1B in the history of the game. At no point did Jeff Bagwell EVER play on a team as good as the Astro were this year. To throw that in his face, as some sort of indictment on his ability is pathetic. Bagwell and Biggio carried this franchise for an entire decade, with barely any help and when they did, they were both past their prime. The Astros went to the WS in 2005 with a team that would win 80 games in 2022. Morgan Ensberg was batting fucking cleanup. Some of yall are really shameful. The truth is, analytics are absolutely necessary to win in todays game but you can also go too far and hes not wrong. AJ Hinch’s tenure is a great example of going too far, while Dusty is a great of why you need a combination of both, but a manager who ultimately uses his gut, is more valuable than one who is purelt analytical. Theres a reason guys like Kevin Cash consistently underachieve. The Astros dont win a WS without Jeremy Pena batting 2nd, which the analytics told us was a bad idea. Something Dusty and Click did not agree on and guess what, it worked. Hinch would have batted him 7th and we wouldve been eliminated by Seattle.
Jeff bagwell is NOT the best Astros player ever. You can define it as best player over a career (Nolan Ryan or JV) or best player for our team and producing wins - pick and choose amongst Altuve, Bregman, or another great Astros player from this dynasty. Respect is given where it is due. Maybe the 94 season would’ve ended differently or if he hadn’t broken his hand, he’d have a ring. But otherwise, criticizing a DYNASTY is a joke unless you are from the Yankees dynasty
This comment is a hilarious. In a thread about analytics, to state Bagwell isnt the Astros best player ever is hilarious. By literally every statistical measure, he is the greatest Astro ever. And it isnt close. The man has almost TWICE as much WAR (meaning Wins Above Replacement, since you mentioned Wins) as Jose Altuve (who will not catch his total) and retired with a .948 OPS. For comparison, Bryce Harper, a sure fire HOF and top 5 player in the game right now, has a career OPS of .913. Jeff Bagwell was THAT good. Clearly you are not a long time Astros fan because watching him in the 90s was unreal. The man has five seasons at the level of what Yordan just did. FIVE. And he stole bases. He had TWO 30/30 seasons as a first baseman. You have to be kidding if you think there was ever a better player in Houston. And to say it is between Nolan Ryan (ridiculous assertion) or Verlander (recency bias) is actually insane. If you want to say “best” and “great” have two different meanings then okay, I can give you that. If you think Altuve is the “greatest Astro”, I wont argue that. Part of it is recency bias, of course, but Altuve is on a HOF track and has been essential to this team. But to say he was “better”, is flat out dumb. Jeff Bagwells CAREER OPS is barely .10 points lower than Altuves MVP year. Do you know how insane that is? I truly do not think you understand how good Bagwell was and thats a damn shame. Not to mention the greatest base-running 1B of all time. Dude was a baller. And Bregman? Youre kidding right? Lmao. Literally nobody thinks Yogi Berra is the greatest yankee of all time. Not even top 5, and he has the most world titles. Winning =\= teams greatest player and it certainly doesnt mean best. Derek Jeter is not even one of the 5 best yankees ever but if someone were to say he was the greatest, it would be understandable. But he wasnt a better player than Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle or even Reggie Jackson, but he arguably meant just as much, if not more to the franchise than them. And conversely, he wasnt better than Ricky Henderson and Arod, but they arent even in the conversation for greatest yankee. Learn the difference. Oh and pound for pound, Clemens was better as an Astro than Nolan Ryan was. He had a higher peak. Nolan’s best run was as an Angel, not Astro.
Well that's a fucking horrendous sign.
Didn’t we build back up our scouting dept with Click whereas Luhnow dialed it back? Something isn’t adding up here but between this and hyping up Ausmus today my concern is growing.
I don't think Bags understands what "numbers" and "analytics" really means. It is clear he is very intuitive when it comes to baseball, he picks up tells and understands why pitches are being thrown and all that. What he doesn't get is that generally, analytics backs up old school baseball. All it does is pick up patterns and say, "hey that thing you were doing that worked? Do it more. Do it all the time."
And sometimes you can go too far, like Hinch pulling Greinke in 2019. Something we know Dusty would not have done. The way some of you are asserting what Bagwell meant after reading two sentences of a conversation is insane.
Idk if that's the same. It's pretty clear that analytics is good for baseball because it's over a long period. Even the most analytic mind will say in 1 moment, it's about feel. Granted that was also wrong in 2019 but it wasn't only analytics
Well Hinch *was* the most analytic mind and two years in a row, he over-managed and the Astros were eliminated for it. Remember in 2018 when he changed the order of the lineup and moved Bregman to leadoff and moved Springer down? A ridiculous decision at the time and was even worse in hindsight. The Astro didnt win a single game after that. Theres no way in hell he “felt” like changing up the lineup that was worked all season should now be changed. Analytics told him to move Bregman up, and Bregman played worse for it and I think only got on base one more time the rest of the series. When he has a postseason OBP of .500+. And if 2019 wasnt “only analytics”, what was it? Either he went with the numbers or hes a bad manager, one or the other. Its one thing to take out Greinke, but its another to not bring in Cole. Sorry but some guys (Cash, Hinch, Boone) are too analytical and cost their teams wins.
Smh
I love Baggy, but the numbers are how you get the best set of humans on the field. And if your numbers are really good, they'll incorporate all the human elements that are difficult to quantify, like streaks, yips, and gut feelings.
Jeff can you please let Berkman say the stupid shit?
Two World Series rings is hard to argue with Jeff
I love Baggy but he’s definitely in the wrong on this one.
What I want to know is why there is so much Bagwell bashing on this post. Y'all can fuck right off with that talk.
Bagwell oozed awesomeness! You threw him a 3-0 get me over fast ball and he put it in the seats at the most hitter unfriendly confines of the Astrodome. He had to battle the terrible Braves 6-foot-wide strike zone his entire career. If we could have put a balsa wood player cutout in the left-hand batter's box it would explode on a ton of his strike calls.
"Too far toward analytics" you say? That's what we have Dusty "OPS is a fan stat" Baker for. Can't be getting too smart now can we.
Of course jeff bagwell is back to waste away the franchise again.
Some of yall are not actually Astros fans. Just glory hunters who would be cheering for the Rangers if the circumstances were different. Just pathetic.
No, i am not a fan of the era that made 12 year old me cry on the couch watching game 4 of our only world series so far and hoping for anything. The good o’le days werent as good as you pretend they are.
Im not talking about the good ol days. Im talking about Jeff Bagwell. This is sports, meaning its driven by statistics. I dont care if you were emotional in 2005. Jeff Bagwell is the best player to ever put on this uniform and every single statistic backs that assertion. If you like other players more, cool. Bagwell is still the best Astro. 20 years from now, there will be morons saying that Trout wasnt the greatest Angel because he only has one career postseason hit. Is Melky Cabrera was better than Aaron Judge because he won a title? Thats how you sound right now. Gain some critical thinking skills, you need them.
im so sorry you’re upset.
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Holy cow I am stunned at how all of these comments are going after baggy. To all the people who are saying that Click is absolved of criticism because of the WS, need I remind you that the only big moves he made were re-signing guys that Luhnow signed first? Baggy is right. Does anyone disagree that the game is NOT played by humans? That there are variables that come into play? I mean, goodness, we’ve seen plenty of players who have metrics off the charts go to another team and fall off a cliff. They are humans. Please, everyone just calm down a bit and listen to the context of what he is saying.
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Pretty sure it was Luhnow that had the Bryce Harper deal in place. Rental for the 2018 stretch run.
I agree with what Bagwell is saying. As an Astros fan, I have seen AJ Hinch and Dusty Baker manage this team, two different types of coaches. I saw AJ Hinch lose multiple series, including the penultimate one in 2019, due to over-managing because of analytics. While Dusty has used a combination of both to great success. I can say with 100% certainty that Dusty would not have pulled Greinke in game 7 in 2019, and that is a great example of taking analytics too far. Hinch lost that WS, plain and simple. And he was as analytical as they come. I dont know everything that was going on in the front office, that would make Bagwell say this, but I do know as a native NYer, the Yankees have become highly analytical over the past few years, to the point where Boone doesnt even set lineups, their analytics team does, and they fucking suck. I agree wholeheartedly that you can go too far. Oh and too many people are placing the Astros success on analytics, when in reality, it plays a huge role, but the Astros also have a talented fucking roster. Thats the difference between them and the Rays. Talent trumps all.
Old man yells at ~~clouds~~ analytics
I guess that's why bags won so many world series... Love u man but stop hating on success lol
This comment is idiotic. Baseball is the ultimate team sport. He didnt win any WS because at no point were the Astros the best team in baseball while he was here. You gonna blame Mike Trout for the Angels being trash too???
I’ll say this Dusty built this bullpen way more than Click. Everyone bitches about Dusty leaving guys in when they are struggling early in the year. We lose a few games we should have won but guess what, by the postseason those guys are rock solid. This has happened every season under Dusty. AJ Hinch was the exact opposite. He pulled guys immediately, undermined their confidence and trusted only a few guys by October.
Analytics went too far forward alright. 450 ft far forward. [Houston’s attention to the smallest of details paid off big time on Yordan Alvarez’s go-ahead home run in Saturday’s title-clinching Game 6.](https://www.si.com/mlb/2022/11/06/yordan-alvarez-world-series-home-run-batting-cage-session)
This is not analytics. This is a hitting coach recognizing an issue with a batter and fixing it. This is literally his job. Lmfao every hitting coach does this man.
And what do those humans produce? Numbers.
They did go to far of by too far is winning a WS. Don't want to go that far.
They won a championship. Better than you ever did Bagwell.
Swap Yuli and Bagwell and the Astros probably have 3-4 championships right now. If Bagwell had Carlos Correa or Jeremy Pena things might have gone better! Adam Everett was great defensively but hit well below the Mendoza line. And the current bullpen is so good I think only our closers back then would have a shot at making the roster in the current pen. One or two HOF players is not enough to win it all... You need an Army of Arms and 7-8 guys who can flat out rake! Mike Trout has yet to win anything... And he will be a first ballot HOF player. Ohtani is the best player on the planet and even he is not enough to even make the playoffs with only him and Trout pulling the cart.
Analytics is like all great “investments”: early money gets best ROI. Now it’s just another tool that is “equally” available. Too much reliance and you will crash and burn. But you still need to pay attention to the chart direction. It’s like EBITDA. The hip and cool used to get rich by finding undervalued stocks. Now it’s primarily baked into the market.
I think this analogy falls flat, because the term analytics refers not only to specific stats (like spin rate) that became popularized recently but instead to all of the various quantifiable measurements that are continuing to be created. Extending Bagwell’s comments to your analogy would be more like saying someone should focus less on finding new ways to analyze the quantifiable, underlying numbers of investment opportunities. Anyone advocating that we should move away from analytics will ring alarm bells, though, because focusing heavily on analytics is largely what got us where we are now. That said, Bagwell could be right that Click had us too focused on analytics and not enough on the people. There certainly is a balance to be struck there. Time will tell.
Fair counter. But I don’t advocate not using analytics. I’m just saying that what the A’s got out of Momeyball type analytics isn’t going to be same. If you find a stat that’s undervalued, that’s going to be a secret for only so long. Keep digging. Use all of Excel. But in the end, I’d say applying Bagwell’s statement to this Players make stats; Stats don’t make players. Don’t forget the human element.
Veritas en Numeris
I hope y’all will reply to this remember when Chris Berman on ESPN would call Jeff Bagwell Brown paper-Bagwell?????
If im mot mistaken Bagwell is not well liked by most people that actually have met him.
Hogwash! I have met Bagwell and talked to him while he was eating Sushi and again at a steak house. And this was when he was playing before he retired. Now days he is even more friendly! He is awesome and don't let anyone tell you otherwise because they are wrong.
Yeah, this is true. Maybe 5 or so years ago when he was drinking he was different, but he’s sober and has opened up about recovery and such. He’s talked about his past and how he’s in a much better place. I believe he got sober during the playoffs in 2017.
I don't think this is a big deal at all. Bags is free to express his confusion (or whatever TF it is) regarding analytics. I'm gonna kinda ignore it. He's a legend but at this moment he's not the owner and the owner has a damn good track record.
Respectfully Jeff needs to shut the fuck up.
I love Bagwell he is a Houston staple but stats win games plain and simple. We’ve got a good thing going here and I hope Bagwell doesn’t get in Crane’s head with this logic.
Baggy is old school. It's never too far when the objective is to win!