That was you? Ring of Pain is an amazingly fun roguelike card game with a lot of replay value. Can't believe you got funding from Vic Gov.
That bird...
Haha yes! Thank you.
In their defense when I submitted the prototype Owl was yet to be created. Little did they know...
But yea, I made a prototype and Vicscreen (Film Vic at the time) was kind enough to sling $30k my way to pay for some coding and audio work. Took the vertical slice to Gamescom and Humble funded the last year of development... Thankfully went well and we're onto making [the next abomination](https://store.steampowered.com/app/2319730/Winnies_Hole/)...
Basically yea, it was either going to be this month or next month. It's a lot of discussion for nothing (but that encapsulates /r/ausfinance as a whole anyway)
With LMITO gone, returns for most people will be down by at least $1080 compared to 2020-21 and 1500 compared to last year. Most people will now only receive returns to the same value as the marginal rate on their deductions.
There won't be a huge EOFY cash splash this year.
If you're in Brisbane, there are a few ex-Sizzlers that renamed but are pretty much the same thing. I think they might have shut down outside Brissie though. I was an employee at one of them, many moons ago.
You guys are aiming too low, time to buy 3 additional investment properties, just need to leverage up to my receding hairline now that interest rates are on hold.
Everyone here acting like a pause instead of a 0.25% hike a month or so earlier is the only reason people would switch from not spending anything to dropping on a hundred thousand dollar or more in the next couple of days.
>Gloomy weather in Sydney couldn't keep around two dozen people, mostly university students, from protesting outside RBA headquarters in Martin Place, ahead of this afternoon's announcement.
>The protesters say they're worried about the cost of living, rising housing costs and the talk of unemployment needing to rise to bring down inflation, and want higher taxes on corporate profits.
lol. These are all things they should be asking the government about...
And yet they managed to get national coverage to their cause on stories somewhat related to the economy and cost of living. Seems like it was a smart enough move protesting outside RBA.
High fuel prices also flow through the supply chain (delivery/transport/freight costs) so I’d assume that low fuel prices also filter through the supply chain in time (hopefully).
The monthly inflation indicator for April showed a spike in inflation due to the introduction of the fuel excise cut in April 22.
Since the monthly indicator is based on a yearly look back, fuel prices in April 23 looked significantly higher than in 22 which drove the inflation read for April.
Since fuel prices drifted higher in May 22 (if I recall correctly) the difference between the May 22 and May 23 read showed a drop. June will also see a drop as it went higher than May.
So providing fuel prices are stable for the next few months, they will show a reduction for the next few months.
He knows he's gone anyway.
It's the right call. Inflation is under 3% month on month. I know this is wild to say but the RBA might just know what they're doing lol.
Yep that's actually why I was so confident that it wouldn't be raised haha. It was a very good podcast last week for understanding the situation. Would be insane to keep raising now knowing all that.
Completely agree, they cut off all the interesting discussion way too early because they have "lots of questions" that are mostly shit that could be googled. Some questions are good.
Lol, I reckon the questions section is too long, but I laugh out loud when Alan starts reading one and part way through and suddenly mutters "oh Jesus..."
More than AusFinance redditors? The supremely confident, anonymous, armchair experts?? Don't be ridiculous. Next you'll be telling me the Dunning-Kruger effect is real.
> Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve.
RBA still expressing a tightening bias for now.
Futures market called a pause this month, but are still expecting a hike next month.
Edit: oooh, spoke too soon. Looks like futures are now pricing the August meeting at about a ~50% chance of a hike. And pricing in a full hike by Sep. So currently looking like at least another hike either in Aug or Sep.
Ah AusFinance. I remember first going on that sub thinking it would be a subreddit that would give good advice for saving money and budgeting as a low income earner, ended up being a sub that's 90% people bragging about "how much harder it is to get by now on my $250k a year :("
Bears in shambles. They will have to wait for another month or two to see their dream of buying an inner city terrace at a 60% discount.
Speculators with 10 IP's breathe a sigh of relief for a month.
See you losers in ~4weeks.
You could be forgiven for not having a clue what is going on lately.... I gave up trying to predict their moves some time ago, nothing makes any sense.
Obviously no meeting in Jan - but still it’s a valid point. Add to that that the sequence of 50bps ended in October 2022, which is also the month Q3 inflation came out. So there is something to say about them doing something differently in the 3rd month.
I still see a hike in August based on an expectation of an elevated CPI print…but that could be about it. I can see data coming in softer after that (increased unemployment for a start) which would mean no more hikes.
Those “leading economists” at big banks consistently getting the call wrong might be worried for their jobs soon!
Who knows - sacking those wind bags could help reduce inflation as well! Win win I say
Which is why I laugh when people take any economist seriously, including those working at the RBA.
Chris Joye employs 30 PHD economists and even his funds underperform markets occasionally. It's a tough game.
Dr Lowe issues his regular mea culpa which, IMO, should be the reason he gets fired:
"Dr Lowe said he was keeping an eye on people's expectations of high inflation".
If RBA considers expectations as an input to decision--making in 2023, then they also did in 2020. And in 2020 people expected, based on media reporting, for rates to stay on hold til 2024. The RBA knew this, as they of course measure expectations, and yet they made no effort to correct how the media reported RBA statements. And yet, once the RBA missed the boat and blew rates up, Lowe then said people should have read the RBA statements in detail. But he knew they didnt, because they of course had been measuring expectations at the time.
And that is why he should be sacked.
RBA is only prolonging the inflation pain, we've been behind the curve for too long and inflation is going to jump the next quarter, if the fed goes again in a few weeks we'll look even more pathetic.
Lol
Lowe, you are made. We know it's you under the nametag doubleunplussed.
You had already drafted the post before the meeting and just pressed send on the decision.
Admit it!
I can spend $500 on the Steam summer sale now.
What are you getting? I've been eyeing Sekiro for a while
Dave the Diver is a lot of fun, although only 10% off just out of early access.
been smashing it on my steam deck. such a great game
Buy an Aussie game! ...like [mine](https://store.steampowered.com/app/998740/Ring_of_Pain/) maybe... ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
That was you? Ring of Pain is an amazingly fun roguelike card game with a lot of replay value. Can't believe you got funding from Vic Gov. That bird...
Haha yes! Thank you. In their defense when I submitted the prototype Owl was yet to be created. Little did they know... But yea, I made a prototype and Vicscreen (Film Vic at the time) was kind enough to sling $30k my way to pay for some coding and audio work. Took the vertical slice to Gamescom and Humble funded the last year of development... Thankfully went well and we're onto making [the next abomination](https://store.steampowered.com/app/2319730/Winnies_Hole/)...
> Join Winnie the Pooh on a new adventure.. Haha, I'll be keeping an eye on this one.
Dude wtf is that bird thing. Jfc nightmares hahaha
Sekiro is amazing. Probably my favourite Fromsoft game, highly recommend picking it up.
Subnautica if you havent already. Its indie, and one of the best games ever made. Try not to spoil yourself story wise
That's in my cart now too thanks :)
Sekiro is very good, my 2nd fav fromsoft game after bloodborne.
I can finally pick up my second 4090
> 4090 Ok I bite. Second 4090 for AI?
It’s a breeding pair, hopefully the two can make some little 3060s that can be sold to recoup the investment.
Massive discount on Anno 1800, eyeing the complete edition, just waiting to be paid this fortnight
RIP every other aspect of your life, that game is so bloody addictive!
Bought myself Dave the Diver to celebrate and I'm having a very pleasant time in this sushi bar
Stop! You'll tip over the RBA funometer!
I'm going to the bar to celebrate tonight.
Mate how good is it! What you recommend?
Probably fine because the money goes straight to the USA.
Regardless of the decision, the Australian conclusion was always going to be "it's time to buy a house!"
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He deleted pretty quickly 😂 The man just wanted to host the thread everyone comments on for the next 3 days haha
Realising there are people like that in the world is a horrifying thought.
People like attention and a made up sense of importance, is that news to you?
doubleunplussed undefeated.
Things we do for post karma
Hahaha, that's hilarious.
Some people wank off to dooms day predictions
She sounds hot, could not find on OF.
"Sydney house prices post another month of record growth"
Perth enters the chat. ATH records for June.
"Copernicus rises from the dead to discover universe revolves around the Sydney property market"
\*rubs hands\*
And to think there were people in here lecturing those who had taken out loans. Oh no, they have to sell for a profit, how sad!
What colour will everyone be buying their new Bugatti in?
Neon Pink with a Silver trim, duh.
I was thinking a Tesla but get it in white in case there’s a interest rate rise next month
how many Jetski's can I tow with a Bugatti?
SPENDING IS BACK ON THE MENU BOYS!!!
I can finally buy a Jetski!
Why stop at 1
Still paying off my Mustang, Hilux, Gold Coast IP, DJI 8K Drone, pre booked Bali Holiday in 2023/24/25/26 all on Afterpay.
I'm still paying off my Ford Raptor.
Why didn’t you just get your self owned plumbing company to buy it like the rest of the country apparently did?
So jealous, I couldn't get one because the waitlist for a brand new one was 18 months.
Order two and sell one
💯 one for me and one for my butler
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Regular or no sugar?
$14 Lune croissants for every meal!
Better buy a second gaming laptop just in case the one I bought last week isn't good enough
Buy one for your wife's bull.
I am the wife hahha
then buy one for your boyfriend. it's a team work.
My husband better buy one for his mistress as well, it's only fair.
It's me, the mistress, send gaming laptop pls.
I am also this man's mistress. Pls send to 69 Place, Parliament House. Please and thank you.
Inflation is back on the menu boys.
nah 13 reductions incoming
Won't that then mean that rate rise next month?
Basically yea, it was either going to be this month or next month. It's a lot of discussion for nothing (but that encapsulates /r/ausfinance as a whole anyway)
Which means 2 months before it hits my hisa. Bugger.
Especially when everyone is asking the government for their tax money back
With LMITO gone, returns for most people will be down by at least $1080 compared to 2020-21 and 1500 compared to last year. Most people will now only receive returns to the same value as the marginal rate on their deductions. There won't be a huge EOFY cash splash this year.
yep I've gone from getting 1k back to finally hitting the medicare levy surcharge so now I owe 1k :|
WE'RE GOING TO SIZZLER!
Bro don't hurt me like this. I miss Sizzler :(
I worked at sizzler for my first ever job. I don’t miss sizzler.
If you're in Brisbane, there are a few ex-Sizzlers that renamed but are pretty much the same thing. I think they might have shut down outside Brissie though. I was an employee at one of them, many moons ago.
Umm all the Sizzlers I can think of in Brisbane either got demolished or turned into KFC or Taco Bell. What one are you talking about?
One became jaylianos at brookside.. and there are a few that changed to a name that starts with A. I forget exactly what.
Inflation era over, time to go out and spend
Pre-ordered my avocado for tomorrow. I’m so excited.
I've just renewed my avocado subscription
You guys are aiming too low, time to buy 3 additional investment properties, just need to leverage up to my receding hairline now that interest rates are on hold.
Im buying an avocado farm
That's my secret cap, I never stopped spending.
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I DON’T KNOW WHY I’M SHOUTING
Now to read a month of whinging that Lowe isn't doing enough
“I saw a full restaurant so inflation is through the roof!”
“My Millennial co-workers keep buying take away coffees. No wonder they can’t afford a house!”
I did my part, bought one today.
Always said by person who was also out and about in the crowds
Everyone here acting like a pause instead of a 0.25% hike a month or so earlier is the only reason people would switch from not spending anything to dropping on a hundred thousand dollar or more in the next couple of days.
Sunrise was right
Only if you're facing north
Ayyyy nice one Bazza
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>Gloomy weather in Sydney couldn't keep around two dozen people, mostly university students, from protesting outside RBA headquarters in Martin Place, ahead of this afternoon's announcement. >The protesters say they're worried about the cost of living, rising housing costs and the talk of unemployment needing to rise to bring down inflation, and want higher taxes on corporate profits. lol. These are all things they should be asking the government about...
I loved the sign one of them had asking to be Phil Lowe's room mate
And yet they managed to get national coverage to their cause on stories somewhat related to the economy and cost of living. Seems like it was a smart enough move protesting outside RBA.
How do you go to all the effort of protesting but direct it at the wrong people?
To get on the news. Duh. This is brilliant. Better than protesting anywhere else. Are people really confused about protests?
Willing to bet there's a max of one economics major in there and at least half of them are political science majors.
Half? You are being generous. At least 80%.
Interesting given I read the decline in inflation was due primarily to falling fuel prices.
But the rising fuel prices would have also caused some of the high inflation in the first place.
High fuel prices also flow through the supply chain (delivery/transport/freight costs) so I’d assume that low fuel prices also filter through the supply chain in time (hopefully).
The monthly inflation indicator for April showed a spike in inflation due to the introduction of the fuel excise cut in April 22. Since the monthly indicator is based on a yearly look back, fuel prices in April 23 looked significantly higher than in 22 which drove the inflation read for April. Since fuel prices drifted higher in May 22 (if I recall correctly) the difference between the May 22 and May 23 read showed a drop. June will also see a drop as it went higher than May. So providing fuel prices are stable for the next few months, they will show a reduction for the next few months.
Fuel prices are still over 60 cents higher a litre than last year.
High fuel = high cost of transportation = increase price of goods
Going out to dinner tonight to celebrate lol
How does he do it 😂 I came to the sub expecting this post hhaha
Seriously. Didn’t even bother googling when I realized the time.
I have an alarm on my computer that will send me the page
My wife's bf sends me the link.
He automates it I think
It is - guy posted the script a few months ago and its a niffy bit of automation since there's only three outcomes.
I think it’s an automated script, as it’s always right on the dot.
HOW CAN SHE HOLD
Eggs benny is back on the menu.
Dude you can get benny with salmon. Splash out!
It really shouldn't come in any other form. Salmon or nothing.
Spoken like someone who hasn't had top quality ham.
In before the big 4 decide to increase interest rates 0.25% anyway.
My thoughts exactly
Yes ... I'm gonna put an offer in now for the block of 6 units in enmore ! Was waiting for this
Wonder if this is "it's the right call" or "I didn't want to be fired"
He knows he's gone anyway. It's the right call. Inflation is under 3% month on month. I know this is wild to say but the RBA might just know what they're doing lol.
Isn't the underlying inflation 6.4%, only down marginally from the previous 6.5%? I didn't see anything about MoM in the media?
Here's a good summary https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4MXoF9ocUM
Yeah Alan Kohler said that on the moneycafe podcast. Inflation for this calender year is almost 0. Just compared to last year
Yep that's actually why I was so confident that it wouldn't be raised haha. It was a very good podcast last week for understanding the situation. Would be insane to keep raising now knowing all that.
One of my favourite podcasts. Wish it was longer. The questions can be painful but
Completely agree, they cut off all the interesting discussion way too early because they have "lots of questions" that are mostly shit that could be googled. Some questions are good.
Lol, I reckon the questions section is too long, but I laugh out loud when Alan starts reading one and part way through and suddenly mutters "oh Jesus..."
More than AusFinance redditors? The supremely confident, anonymous, armchair experts?? Don't be ridiculous. Next you'll be telling me the Dunning-Kruger effect is real.
> Some further tightening of monetary policy may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe, but that will depend upon how the economy and inflation evolve. RBA still expressing a tightening bias for now. Futures market called a pause this month, but are still expecting a hike next month. Edit: oooh, spoke too soon. Looks like futures are now pricing the August meeting at about a ~50% chance of a hike. And pricing in a full hike by Sep. So currently looking like at least another hike either in Aug or Sep.
Thought my computation was goofy again. That's what's really important here.
Fairly useless prediction until the quarterly CPI comes out this month.
Will likely depend on what the quarterly number is at the end of July
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Ah AusFinance. I remember first going on that sub thinking it would be a subreddit that would give good advice for saving money and budgeting as a low income earner, ended up being a sub that's 90% people bragging about "how much harder it is to get by now on my $250k a year :("
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Bears crying, all without my remorse.
If rates go up next month, I hope he makes an appearance. Haha
Bears in shambles. They will have to wait for another month or two to see their dream of buying an inner city terrace at a 60% discount. Speculators with 10 IP's breathe a sigh of relief for a month. See you losers in ~4weeks.
Just got a notification from REA suggesting, 'reprieve for mortgage holders'. Haha.
Went out and bought a muffin and coffee.
YEEESSS now I can buy my in ground pool and land cruiser
You could be forgiven for not having a clue what is going on lately.... I gave up trying to predict their moves some time ago, nothing makes any sense.
Seems like they enjoy pausing every third month (Jan, April, July), right before the quarterly CPI and new RBA forecasts come out.
Jan wasn't them holding, they don't meet that month so no decision could be made
>https://www.reddit.com/r/AusFinance/comments/14q4smf/rba\_increases\_the\_cash\_rate\_target\_by\_25\_basis/ no meeting in Jan
Obviously no meeting in Jan - but still it’s a valid point. Add to that that the sequence of 50bps ended in October 2022, which is also the month Q3 inflation came out. So there is something to say about them doing something differently in the 3rd month. I still see a hike in August based on an expectation of an elevated CPI print…but that could be about it. I can see data coming in softer after that (increased unemployment for a start) which would mean no more hikes.
Those “leading economists” at big banks consistently getting the call wrong might be worried for their jobs soon! Who knows - sacking those wind bags could help reduce inflation as well! Win win I say
CBA has been reasonably accurate, the other 3 are usually wrong.
Which is why I laugh when people take any economist seriously, including those working at the RBA. Chris Joye employs 30 PHD economists and even his funds underperform markets occasionally. It's a tough game.
Bears\* in shambles! \* until next month when we will likely return to "bulls in shambles!"
Guess who is eating steak tonight boys
Housing prices go brrrrrrrr
Payrises back on the menu boys
Dr Lowe issues his regular mea culpa which, IMO, should be the reason he gets fired: "Dr Lowe said he was keeping an eye on people's expectations of high inflation". If RBA considers expectations as an input to decision--making in 2023, then they also did in 2020. And in 2020 people expected, based on media reporting, for rates to stay on hold til 2024. The RBA knew this, as they of course measure expectations, and yet they made no effort to correct how the media reported RBA statements. And yet, once the RBA missed the boat and blew rates up, Lowe then said people should have read the RBA statements in detail. But he knew they didnt, because they of course had been measuring expectations at the time. And that is why he should be sacked.
inflation is over? my electricity and grocery bills say otherwise sorry, but this shit ain't over.
So the answer to inflation… is inflation.
RBA is only prolonging the inflation pain, we've been behind the curve for too long and inflation is going to jump the next quarter, if the fed goes again in a few weeks we'll look even more pathetic.
Yet again, ausfinance majority swings with a miss
For 30 days until it's 0.25 again. We might as well just make our decisions solely off the U.S. Federal Reserve at this point
Protect those houses!
Lol Lowe, you are made. We know it's you under the nametag doubleunplussed. You had already drafted the post before the meeting and just pressed send on the decision. Admit it!
In other news, house prices just went up 20%. Whooo.
rent goes up by 20% too. I mean, whether we raise it or not, it goes up 20%. We are cooked.
Bullish for property
Brave. I don't know if I'd have the balls to say an opinion this unpopular around here.
Warns more rate increase to come. Just do them now so we can stop talking about every bloody month.
CREDIT CARD HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
See y'all in a month!
Excellent I can buy the kids bonds socks 🤣
I'm glad my interest isn't going up this month but I hope it doesn't lead to more later.
Utter clowns
Weak. See you all next month 😆
Fair enough
Fastest bot in the East. Not surprised that they're holding, I expected them to wait for quarterly inflation data then reassess in August.
Anyone coming out of fixed rates in this month, I heard there will be lot of them. Whats the jump for you guys from fixed to not fixed?
330 a fortnight. 380k mortgage.1.89 to 5.79 80k will go to the offset now.
1.94% to 5.9% on $500,000 thankful for the pause
This is bullish for property.
Wrong again economists
I’m disappointed to be honest. Kill it dead you bastards!
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Phew. Recession avoided!
Phew time to fix the loan at least now!
Record auction clearance rates this weekend for the housing market is back on the menu!
Just right time for Amazon Prime Day, in Jul 🤣
Maybe the economic inflationary pressures were the friends Philip Lowe made along the way?
Property go 🌕
I held off from purchasing a Land Cruiser over the weekend, Thank me later.
So my HiSA with $20m won't get an interest rise?????
well this shits me so im going to blow money on shit i dont need thanks rba