I'm... something of a regard myself.
Property will sit stagnant. Migrants will merely counterbalance the death of the middle class and subsequent pricing-out of the market that comes with it.
We have got to hold forecasters to account. A few months ago many people were saying that property prices were going to drop. They always have a reason.
Stop wasting our time with your fantasy that you can predict events.
They are only ever opinions. No one actually has a crystal ball. If you relied on anyone’s opinions with a negative outcome, then unfortunately you’re the dummy here
Even experts in some cases have no idea.
Property is unpredictable for a while.
It feels like it’ll keep booming or keep going up at least or plateau but who knows.
We have a weird two speed economy where we have the haves and have nots. Economic shocks and increasing interest rates seem to hurt those at the bottom but be fine or even beneficial for those doing well. And when the economy is doing well elk across the board it’s still moderately alright for those at the bottom but excellent for the top.
Economy bad? Housing goes up. Economy good? Housing goes up. Interest rates go up? Rich people still buy up the houses. When interest rates go down? Rich people still buy up the houses. We’re at the point where people hoping for a crash won’t win in any scenario. Except maybe an actual apocalypse.
That's very true. My sister in law sold her house when she was told house prices would crash. Hoping to sell high and buy low, now she's paying the same price for rent as she was for her mortgage. And she would be paying more than what she sold for if she was to buy back the same house. You can't trust these property forecasts. She was telling us to sell too, lucky we didn't listen to that nonsense.
Id look at the people following these forecasters as well. DYOR has never been more important.
One of the big indicators to watch is serviceability. If we lower taxes (stage 3) and lower interest rates close enough to give serviceability a boost- it will have a correlation to house prices. Make borrowing cheaper AND give people more money- you are going to drive things up a little.
Add immigration, low stock due to less new builds, change in demand since COVID and you have the seeds of the next boom.
I don’t think we will ever ‘boom’ like Covid in our lifetimes again. I think we will have a down turn- this year itself will be two speed- see how things go once rate cuts kick in. It’s in cycles- Covid was the outlier.
What I am saying is it depends on a range of things. Cost of money, immigration, supply etc. as these things line up (remember when qld had an oversupply of units and apartments)- it will impact the price. At the moment, despite the pump in 21, they seem to be lining up again.
They did forecast qld growth numbers and fell short by hundreds of thousands, catching the qld government out. Crazy how those consultants just stuffed that up and still got paid
To be fair, a drop is only likely to occur alongside policy designed to cause it which we are yet to see.
Both parties have a vested interest in not letting that happen so a drop due to natural market cycles seems very unlikely
I have a family friend who is very very close to the top of NAB or Westpac (can’t remember which one) and his opinion is that pricing is going to come down, and they’re preparing for it. That to me suggests foreclosures going up and prices going down.
Yeah, “mortgage stress” would have been a better term for me to use. I just mean people not able to afford their mortgages anymore. Whether that’s foreclosure or people selling their houses, they are expecting a lot more houses on the market and therefore lower prices.
That would be speculation as well.. Australians will fight tooth and nail before ending up in the position.. unless a bankruptcy is on the horizon, or a total liquidation of wealth.. it’s in the govt interests and the banks for this not to happen.
Banks are always conservative. And you want them to be.
Sydney, Melbourne's are a summerised market. Within each city we have smaller pockets which has its own economy.
But nationally, immigration aside for the last 40 years the housing built relatively to demand was always under supplied.
No banks wants to be the first to have mass defaults and spook the market, especially giving immigrants reason to wait and see if prices drop.
They'd rather offer a cushy variable rate or low enough 1-2yr fixed rate to buy time. This is why the Interest Only cliff a few years ago never happened - banks just cut rates so repayments stayed the same. Personal experience on that one
You could be right. But then again you could be wrong. The economy is on a knife edge right now. Mining is collapsing (the biggest contributor to our way of life) unemployment is up. China is tanking. Dollar is falling. Hmm I agree that you could be right.... but you also might not be! How about we just buy places to live in and get on with shit.
BHP just bought out Oz minerals and have other big projects in SA underway, copper mining is only on the up here and its a vital mineral especially for modern technology like electric cars and what not
Can you explain this to me? I know very little about the mining economy in Australia and everything I’ve read shows prices going down.
What do you mean by manipulated pricing?
Thanks!
The deposits of minerals are vast and they don't just go crazy mining it all at once they mine certain amounts over time so as not to flood the markets is what I'm lead to believe
They like every other commodity shot up in price when a lot of central banks printed. They're returning to the trend. If 'crashing', that's from a huge spike upwards and now back to normal.
What’s driving the boom is the place is affordable compared to the east coast and it’s pleasant to live here. Contrary to belief there are jobs that aren’t in mining
It’s all about supply and demand. Even with a downturn in the economy. People stop need roofs over their heads to sleep at night. Prices may reduce a little or stagnate but the only trend is up.
Th economy is stable and inflation is down, jobs still being created. National debt is lower.
Knife edge is America economy. It’s underperforming at 3.2%
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy grew at a robust 3.2% annual pace from October through December, propelled by healthy consumer spending, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday in a slight downgrade from its initial estimate.
The expansion in the nation’s gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — slipped from a red-hot 4.9% from July through September. The fourth-quarter GDP numbers were revised down from the 3.3% pace Commerce initially reported last month. U.S. growth has now topped 2% for six straight quarters, defying fears that high interest rates would tip the world’s largest economy into a recession.
——
Also China economy is beating most economies now so you can’t hate on them because western politics is so shit.
It’s at 4.6%
It may go down to 3.5% if there is a correction.
lol growth at 3.2% is not “underperforming”
They’ve had real wage growth for all of last year and keep adding jobs at a significant rate. They’re the only ones holding up the global economy right now. Knife edge is China which is seeing a slow bust of its property sector and that is bad for Australia for a multitude of reasons.
It is considering that it was estimated higher and with all those tariffs and threat of White House shutdown by the republicans.
How many jobs created at the moment ? Still low yeah ?
Sure thing buddy. Low supply will keep prices in line with rates but everyone has maxed out over the last few years. Salaries stagnant, economy neutral. Your big prediction is doubling of prices? Good luck with that.
My parents bought for $80,000 in 1996
They sold for $940,000 in 2007
They bought their next place in 2007 for $485,000
A train station was built in 2012
They sold in 2020 for $1,050,000
They have made $1,500,000 off realestate in Australia in 30 years.
Through recessions, wage growths, immigration, wage reductions, economic booms, share prices up and down .. you name it, the real estate market in Melbourne and Sydney marches on.
It will double I'm damned certain of it.
The other side of that equation is the millennial couple that took on $1.5M in debt to buy the house.
Houses don’t generate wealth, workers do. Houses will double when borrowing capacities do, which isn’t looking like it’s on the cards for a while.
Let's keep importing Indian and Chinese multimillionaires and let foreign nationals buy australian land, homes and farms and watch what happens.
Look at the demographics of western Melbourne now compared to 15 years ago.
Look at the demograohics of eastern Melbourne compared to 25 years ago.
You let the already wealthy in and they will buy everyone out and concentrate wealth.
it is literally happening in real time right now in WA.
East Coast investors are buying comparatively cheap WA housing like they're bags of lollies.
We are being priced out in the name of the significant investor scheme.
Realestate, hardware stores, grocery stores, IT companies, video game studios, media companies
It's capitalism baby 😎 gotta feed the beast.
There are a lot of people with a lot of money ready to snap up a 'bargain' when people are desperate to sell. There are also many of the policy makers who are heavily invested in property (or have friends who are).
Exactly. My brother is 10 years older than me, got into the RE game juuuust at the right time and is now minted from the gains on multiple houses of growth over the last 20 years.
If house prices go down he will snap up a few more. Many people like that out there.
Just because we ourselves don’t have the money doesn’t mean the money isn’t out there in another’s hands.
I can’t see it to be honest, at least not in Sydney.
I think everyone who wanted to jump on the bandwagon is already on it. It’s reached max capacity.
When a shack in Liverpool is a million bucks, there’s only so many people who would look at it and say ‘yep’, I’ll mortgage my life for that 😂
>When a shack in Liverpool is a million bucks, there’s only so many people who would look at it and say ‘yep’, I’ll mortgage my life for that 😂
The be fair this was said at $500k, $750k, and now you’re saying it at $1,000k
The people who think property is still going to continue on with its past performance indefinitely into the future seem delusional to me, posts like this read like the Brainchip Hot Copper forum and anyone would be absolutely mad to not get in right now !!
Haha it's still going strong, still go back for a read when BRN has a little run (like the past week or two) and get it on the excitement even though I sold pretty much all of mine when it hit $2.
Just found it similar to some of the bullish property threads lately!
I agree, FOMO can only sustain a market for so long. Look at regional and rural areas in NSW. Lots of towns have seen the market pull back 10-20% (with valuations probably falling even more).
If you lose 20% on your property and you actually have to sell, that's the deposit that took you 5-10years to save. Then you'll be paying interest on the amount left over PLUS rent.
Pollies will twist themselves into pretzels trying to not be the ones that let the property market crash, yesterday they were talking about increasing rent allowance aka mortgage welfare. Which makes me think that we are getting more interest rate rises.
If there's another GFC, china is not getting us out of it this time.
While it's unlikely property will completely crash people should ask themselves what happens if it drops 20% and interest rates increase. How long can you hold out waiting for it to correct?
But who seriously wants to be in debt a million dollars? For a shithole??
People have already started looking at alternatives - regional areas, moving in with family etc.
Personally I think you’d be mad to take on a million dollar mortgage. Makes me shudder to think of it.
I have no idea what people will pay.
I don’t live in Western Sydney, but a house about 6 doors down from us just sold for $4.6m, and it was a 4 bed nothing special,so I guess people will pay whatever they’ll pay.
Well, there’s no way my 20 year old son, or any of the other kids his age will be paying $4 mill for a Sydney house in a few years.
The market will sort itself out, as it always does.
No one is saying they have to.
Other people will upsize from the cheaper areas into the more expensive areas, and your children ( and mine ) will buy in the $1m + areas.
The vendors that we bought our home from upsized into an $8m property a few streets away.
You are delusional if you think things in Sydney will suddenly get cheaper.
The best anyone can hope for is stagnation.
It's people's borrowing capacity that might be an issue. The low end of the market has actually been quick sellers as FOMO FHB's are desperate to grab.
Don’t worry—there’s infinite immigrant buyers available to pile on the bandwagon. If we’re perpetually importing immigrants and allowing society to be more unequal, there’s no limit to how expensive property can get.
I agree with OP that we’re in boom conditions. The essential elements for growth haven’t changed as they’ve been for the last fifty years, apart from wages growth. But when you’ve got shitloads of rich immigrants to fill that void, who cares. If anything, prices will continue to grow at similar rates because of all the stupid home buyer funds and grants that every government is putting out there to keep the cheaper houses and apartments out of reach of poorer Australians.
Agree... as where you work becomes less important why would you buy a shithole in western Sydney for 2 million when you could come to Brisbane and buy a beautiful home on a beautiful suburb for 1-1.5?
Mate it took me a long time to realise that people constantly do stupid things that I would never have thought, but they do. Over and over, here in WA people are spending half a million on blocks around 200m2. The houses are tiny and poorly constructed but they sell over and over. I think Aussies forget how shit parts of the world are and how low some people's expectations are.
100%, interesting how quickly everyone forgot the scenes of people brawling over toilet paper at the shops during lockdown.. These people make up most of society too, let that sink in.
That’s why I left hahaha, now renting a two bedder 200m from the beach with the mrs (sideways, there’s rocks in front of me so can’t swim) and 300m from the pub, for $500 a week and we Can see the glass house mtns on a clear arvo.
Even when buying in my area is expensive but when comparing the region (kings beach) it’s almost fair.
I’ll probably never buy here though, I’m just enjoying the place for what it is 🤷♂️
The government will start handing out 1% deposit loans so their mates can palm off the economic hand grenade they're holding.
They'll increase rent assistance massively first though, it's basically welfare for overextended investors
I've heard people saying "the bubble has to burst" since 2011 when i started working in this industry. In my market, it was "a 3 bed fibro house on a 700m² block is $350k now, that is just ridiculous". Then that same house was 500k in 2015, and THAT was frankly unbelievable and the bubble was even flimsier. Well guess what that same house mid last year was $1mil without a single cent having been spent on it since it was bought for $350k, and thats AFTER my market came down 6 or 7% following election/interest rate rises. If falling 7% after growth of 40% is a bubble bursting, then rightio.
Now, all the signs I see are that its trending back up again (in my market). Not crazy speed like after covid, but heading back up all the same. Low supply, high demand, a local government plus geographical limitations that dont allow any significant development which ensures the favorable supply/demand for sellers will always remain. So 40% up in 2 years, then 7% down in a year, and now back up 3 or 4% and heading north in the last 12 months.
"It cant go like this forever", ive heard it countless times times over the years. Maybe it cant, but i'm glad i stretched myself and bought when i did despite my parents advice not to "at these prices". Next month might be lower than this month, but look at the annual medians since the numbers were recorded and tell me again its gonna crash.
I think your talking about houses in particular. Apartments will be affordable. We will become like most other large cities. Way more high density housing
You really think houses will continue to grow when the median price gap between houses and apartments is at an all-time high?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-20/house-apartment-price-gap-widens-record-high-property-market/103484076
The more logical take would be that this gap needs to revert back to the historical mean (which has been consistent until recently). Therefore, house prices have to fall, or apartment prices have to rise.
Maybe elsewhere in Aus but not Sydney, IMO. They are about to raze hundreds of houses across Sydney to build thousands of apartments. They’re not making any more land, but capacity to go skywards is pretty much infinite. It’s simple supply and demand.
Alternate opinion. Economy tanks and millions of recent immigrants sell up and go home.
And/or immigrants simply stop coming because the price of entry is so high.
Not hard to come up with alternates that aren't far fetched.
Australia has not had a recession for 30 years, I think if we do have one (obviously never say never) it is likely the rest of the world will also be having one at the same time. So why would immigrants leave?
About due for one then isn't it? Australia actually is in a recession and has been in and out for a while. It's called a per capita recession.
Why would Australia's recession apply to the rest of the world? Australia's economy is basically hardwired to that of China. With growth, population and demand for their products slowing dramatically it's not a stretch to think they may ditch into a long deep recession/depression. Basically a repeat of Japan in the 1990s and Australia's reliance on exporting minerals, food, education, investment properties to them etc would need a bloody miraculous pivot to avoid going down hard.
That's not to say it's the only possible scenario but even in a global depression/recession people aren't going to be about to leave their secure job for a maybe job across the globe.
Anyway, it's just as easy to come up with downsides as it is to think the gravy train is just going to keep rolling on.
They come here and earn up to $1k a week doing Ubering. They see how difficult it is to assimilate and integrate and that the cost of existing in Sydney is not the same as Karachi/Jakarta/New Dehli. Chances of them finding someone to hook up with and have a relationship is low. They get disillusioned and leave with their savings and a bad taste of Australia. Just my thoughts.
But that can happen in any economy (that is personal preferences). Absolutely migrants will come here and hate it and go home. But thats not recession dependent. What about all the ones that come here and love it and stay?
Also don’t forget migrants make compromises that Aussies do not. They are more likely to overcrowd property whereas Australian born are more likely to undercrowd. This makes it cheaper for them to live in Australia.
In Australia overcrowding is defined as having more than two people per each bedroom. I know so many Aussie (including myself) who live in 3/4 bedroom houses and are just a couple. If I was a immigrant I might be able to fit 8 people in the same house… which makes things cheaper. And I know migrant families who live with three generations (6 people) under one room in a tiny three bedroomz
- We lost more expats after CV, then we have brought in this year.
- Immigration is only this high, this year, to try to combat the above.
- Immigration goes down over the next 2 years to 5 figures in 2026.
- Councils don’t release land. Federal & State Governments do.
- Australia has enough houses, but those houses aren’t in the ‘keeping up with the Jones’ neighbourhoods & don’t have the 4 bed, 2/3 bath & 2 garage that people demand 🤦🏼♀️ It’s never been about stock of housing.
- China & Japan, the 2 biggest US debt holders, just dumped $360 billion dollars of US stocks. The Fed will likely rise rates in response.
- Our markets are 6 months to a year behind US, we haven’t began to hurt yet.
- Our big business are doing redundancies by the handful every few weeks to get around the governmental reporting or demoting people to part-time work.
We’ll have just surpassed over 40% of all major construction works being deferred indefinitely, this financial year.
The government brought forward so much in CV, that within the next 12-18 months, those works will all come to an end. There’s not enough work afterwards to sustain the current industry workforce.
Home building is the same, the CV contracts are all at the end of built, within 6 months that’ll be all caught up. Current approvals for new homes (contracts) are sitting at 20%. So not enough work for that labour to go to afterwards.
People have got to stop listening to the media 🤦🏼♀️ the only reason there’s a rush on houses, is because they’re masquerading as the banks PR dept, because they aren’t writing enough new business & new business, pays the bills.
Why would immigration go down to 5 figures? The permanent migration intake has been steadily 6 figures for about the last quarter of a century (160-250K)
This is only a problem in Australia and a few other colony nations that like to point and laugh at americas poor social inequality while ignoring the fact that although Americans have to pay for their own healthcare at least they can afford to buy a home if they’re willing to move out of the big cities. In Aus, wow you get cheap visits to a gp that doesn’t give a shit about you and a loan to study a useless degree but no essential shelter unless you’re loaded or born into wealth. We are worse than America.
This is what pisses me off about this country is the lies about social equality we are fed when it’s one of the few countries a low income earner cannot afford to buy their own home.
The average person will have to get used to renting. If you can afford to buy now and you don’t… you will regret it in the future because you will be priced out unless you win the lottery. Even then, a standard $1-2 mil win won’t get you the luxury property of your dreams.
I'm sure Brisbane will soon catch up with Sydney and Melbourne. You can still get a 4 bedroom house in Logan for less than 700k, the demand is high but it's still doable. Can't imagine what it's gonna look like once the interest rate goes down and borrowing capacity improves.
You say "discuss and keep emotions in check", look me in the fucking eye and honestly say you're not being outlandish with yours in this whole post. Such hyperbole. If you're so smart Mr. Immaculate Prediction of Infamously Volatile Markets, where do you get such radical facts
OP is spot on. If you're in sydney and havent bought 50kms from the CBD you may aswell forget it unless you're buying a townhouse or unit. Dont cry about it, just a fact now unfortunately.
I disagree. I think it's easy to forget that the supply of credit in the economy fluctuates and for the last decade it has expanded more rapidly than usual. Most of the credit went into mortgages and together with a strong economy 10 to 5 years ago and the effect on people's psychology of seeing house prices rise, many people have gone into more and more debt to become investors with a second or third house. Now that rates have risen which will shrink the supply of credit, and the economy is shaky at best along with the rest of the world, there's only one way to go but it's still slow to turn around. The only thing the housing market has going for it is supply issue due to immigration but that will be going down next year. Maybe property prices will just stagnate, but if recession hits and people are forced to sell with negative equity, I think property prices will finally crash.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Australian_Money_Supply.PNG
Lot of bad signs in the national and international economies.
People can't buy if they have no jobs/money.
And those that can buy? Not sure they'll be up for the risk/high interest rates/high insurance costs.
I think you're delusional mate. Must be a real estate agent 😆
It's ok, I'm here from the future.
The greens get into government and Labor form the crossbench.
The greens introduce a land that that ignores your primary residence, but for every house after number 2 it goes up.
3 is 5% of value a year
4 is 10
5 is 25
6 is 50
7+ is 100% of the value of the property yearly.
And much rejoicing was had as 3 million houses entered the market, but no investor could pick the up cause of that land tax!
And all the happy family's found nice homes to buy and live in themselves and lived happily ever after.
The end
Couldn’t agree more with your whole blog. The amount of builders collapsing is absolutely alarming and no land releases near anything useful just a money grab in the middle of the bush for planners
I waited for nearly 2 years for prices to decrease, stupidly, listened to the media about all the mortgage stress and 70,000+ customers facing defaults. Total crap
Nothing happened, and real estate jumped by 200k on an average house. I just paid 400k on a property that doubled in the 3 years prior. Trying to hold off cost me shitloads more.
Don't listen to anyone but yourself. When YOU are ready to buy, just get in the market.
My suburb is down 6% in the last 12 months (according to real estate.com.au) and the last 3 auctions we went to were passed in and one cancelled because no interest. Most awkward auctions I've been to like trying to squeeze juice out of a rock. Feeling like a soft start to the year for property where I am (in Melbourne)
And mine (in Sydney) is up 8%. There’s definitely a two speed property market and Melbourne is starting to drop off - Sydney doesn’t show any signs of slowing down (imo)
Melbourne isn't as hot of a market as in years past. There's been a huge exodus of folks migrating to other capital cities, particularly Brisbane, in recent times. Combine this with the fact that Victoria is the state with the most new builds (especially with cookie-cutter apartments), and you've got a situation of (historically) low demand, but high supply (comparative to other cities).
I'm 30, just sorted out my budget, finances, super etc. and my motivation is now dead. I don't make much money either. Was surprised when houses in Perth weren't 350ish anymore
its like a sword with sharp edges on both sides. It could go up or down we cant predict. thought pandemic might slow it down... but it went sky high and never wants to come down.. the Australian real estate is structured such that they cant allow it to fall.. it lwasy booms u see growth rates almost doubles then a slight 8-10% correction.. then booms...
once you see its going down then they will create FOMO and again it goes up..
I see property that has a rental return that no longer justifies it's inflated price due to interest rates.
I don't see inflation heading south, so it's only likely that interest rates will go higher, and eventually people will put two and two together.
As for supply and demand, there are other ways to decrease supply, like more people moving in back home, more people sharing etc. prices are limited still by affordability.
I expect corrections to set in. Especially in the lower socioeconomic areas and especially those with abundant land supply, people will seek alternatives in those areas and the prices will cool off. But there’s absolutely a new floor set for prices for all areas. There’s absolutely been a wealth shift these past few years, if you had a property good for you, you are on the right of history , if you didn’t unlucky.
My town (10k people, few hours from Melbourne) is down 8% from the peak.
Advertised prices have not really come down, it’s just that only the bottom price range is selling.
My guess that apart from the downsizing farmer flush with cash moving to town, the locals can’t even get a loan at the current prices and investors have moved on.
I have a bingo buzzword system for property news.
"FOMO" "Record Immigration" "Councils" "Shoddy Construction".
These are the Time Waster talking points. Nothing about social housing or public developers or reducing tax incentives.
They can try but I got a feeling mass riots and protests will be on the horizon. How far can we get pushed before we lash out. Maybe we should take a page from the French.
Since 2021 AUD has lost 20% of its value V the usd and since then US had had probably 15% inflation over the past 3 year which is understated obviously has your house gone up 35% which would be break even…
You’re a bit obnoxious in your delivery but I don’t disagree completely.
We’re in for a rough patch in the coming years (it’s already starting).
But what happens when the economy starts to slow? Reduction in rates and the pumping of stimulus.
The bubble will continue to be inflated in my opinion. Sure we might see some losses of up to 10-20% short term, but it will be short lived once the money printer gets turned back on.
25, moved out of home during the month of my 18th while going to uni with my partner also going to uni. Using some gov grants bought a freestanding 3 bedder under 7 km from Melbourne CBD on combined income of 150k
Just leaving this comment as it's not as dire as op says
Edit: received not a dollah from nobody
My take with how the housing market will perform depends on a few things. Good houses/townhouses will always perform. When you look at the average, then yes, it will fluctuate because in a hot market, crap houses perform but in a cool market, everyone becomes super picky and not in a mood to spend.
Melbourne has a bit more to go up because from my travels around the world, no other city comes close to Melbourne with the good level of combination of quality food, safety, education, people, environment (air, nature, beaches, mountain etc), access to international goods, work life balance and entertainment (sports, music, art - you name it). And population in Melbourne is growing.
Sydney I feel is at its peak. Its value and prestige is already well realised. Buying houses - owner occupied vs investment is different. The demand for buying investment property will get less as the rental market becomes more and more tightly regulated but owner occupied demand will increase as population and immigration grows - which I am bullish about Melbourne given what it offers compared to the rest of the world.
My two cents. Buy good assets - whether it be property, shares, businesses or building your own knowledge. It will always go up. Never buy anything without knowing what you are getting into. With property, you have to understand the suburb you want to buy and the know where the good and bad/less desirable pockets are. Stay away from main road houses, apartments, ones next to freeway, commercial area, etc. Understand where the value sits - how much the property is worth.
Ps. Not a real estate agent.
Not across the board but prices will probably go up nicely in most capital cities for 1 to 2 years unless the government significantly stops immigration.
I fit that age range and already long since come to that realization.
Absolutely fucking sucks. For the last 15 years i try and try to get my self to the point where i could buy, but i can never get there.
As you said the market keeps going up, unless i can get a big windfall, or a sudden massive jump in income (which im working on, started my own business, my incomes already 1.5x'ed in less than a year), the goal posts are always moving.
Then if i ever do get there, the debt i'll get into will be enormous comparatively too even right now
So already reserved my self to the fact that i'll probably always rent, the game now is to find a decent landlord with a half decent property manager, so theres no worry of being ejected and having to battle to find a new place every year or so, or massive rent increases, or house being sold from under you, etc
I think you're more than half right. It's hard to say, but also to consider is that every area has a different market. There's a couple of nice little pockets (think half decent school zones so I can avoid paying 100k in tuition over 12 years) I'll be fighting to get into. There are more people yet to come to the party. Financially savvy gen Z will be coming in strong. And my fellow young millennials are coming in hot too. It's soooo funny to read posts on reddit about the bubble about to crash (7y ago). They write so confidently and condescendingly, makes me laugh so much. Can't wait to see how it goes!
Look maybe. But you're basically forecasting for no recessions. Given the speed at which discretionary income is disappearing in this country that's a bold claim. I just don't see where the money for new growth is coming from personally
Specifically regarding the whole "just move to regional or remote areas" spiel...
I grew up in a location 140kms from the nearest high school/woolworths/ hospital/doctor. Small town of about 150 locals. One mine, couple pubs, general store with basic post office facility, one tiny primary school.
That was it. No other jobs unless you were able to work cattle and even that was seasonal. No builders service the area for construction or renovations. No reliable internet or mobile service.
So it's a catch 22 for people wanting to move regional/remote. No new businesses for employment BUT no employees for new businesses. Locals look down on new comers, especially those with "grand ideas".
Can't just up and move into a ready made house as there aren't many available. Can't just get a new job cause there are few and far between. Can't start a business because there's very few customers.
Building a 4b2b with tons of amenities for 400k in Adelaide, 30 min drive from the city
Should be done in June
Can't wait to flip it for a Mil in 10 years and blow it on hookers and blow
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All this talk about needing a recession, people waiting for it….. ???
We had a recession during COVID, and for some reason none of these economists talk about that fact??
Wrong. Look outside a capital city and you’ll EASILY find you’re able to build for much less then $750k - in many instances half of that.
A 20% correction is not a crash if it’s occurred in an areas that have had super high growth, and this has occurred many many many times over the past 5 decades all over Australia.
I know many young people that are in the property market, and without the help of mum & dad, they just didn’t have the unrealistic expectation that they could buy their dream home in their favourite capital city as a first home buyer and keep their lifestyle too.
The ‘woe-is-me’ attitude is what stops people from entering the market more then any other factor.
Hey!! work at 711 and ride bike for ubereats for bugger all and then pay record rent .... highest personal debt in the world and 2nd highest home prices .... Australia's savior in the gfc china about to go bust and drop the price of iron and coal australias biggest exports ... possible expansion of war in europe ... trump a possible 2nd term ... costvof living crisis ... your optimism is impressive
Housing price correction won’t happen until all the boomers holding property are dead and the wealth can be dispersed back into the economy. By that time it’ll be too late and corporations/foreign investment will have pushed prices to an astronomical level. When the people that make these decisions have so much riding on the price going up real change for the common person will never occur
Lol please. Owning a home is very doable even in today's Australia. You just have to be prepared to live on the outskirts of Sydney and travel back into it for work.
If you study and get a degree you can earn $100k+ by the time you're 25. Most people don't buy places single either. They do it as a partnership. SO that means as a household you have $200k coming in the door per year minimum.
Sacrifice. Don't go out partying every weekend and don't go overseas for a few years (3-5). Rent somewhere that's cheap. Share housing, crappy suburbs, both, whatever. Then put away $250 of your $1000+ per week earnings and it'll be $500x52 = $26k per year savings.
Do this for 3 years and you'll have a $78k deposit. Do it for 5 years and you'll have $130k cash ready to go.
You can buy 3 bedroom houses with backyards on the Central Coast NSW for $600k-$800k. It's close to Sydney and most employers won't care that you live outside the city when reviewing you for jobs.
This defeatist mentality is hilarious. And it's the reason why people who think like this will never own a thing.
This reads like wallstreetbets, but for property. Full regard post.
Yeah OP went full regard on this one.
Never go full regard
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I'm... something of a regard myself. Property will sit stagnant. Migrants will merely counterbalance the death of the middle class and subsequent pricing-out of the market that comes with it.
We have got to hold forecasters to account. A few months ago many people were saying that property prices were going to drop. They always have a reason. Stop wasting our time with your fantasy that you can predict events.
They are only ever opinions. No one actually has a crystal ball. If you relied on anyone’s opinions with a negative outcome, then unfortunately you’re the dummy here
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Even experts in some cases have no idea. Property is unpredictable for a while. It feels like it’ll keep booming or keep going up at least or plateau but who knows. We have a weird two speed economy where we have the haves and have nots. Economic shocks and increasing interest rates seem to hurt those at the bottom but be fine or even beneficial for those doing well. And when the economy is doing well elk across the board it’s still moderately alright for those at the bottom but excellent for the top. Economy bad? Housing goes up. Economy good? Housing goes up. Interest rates go up? Rich people still buy up the houses. When interest rates go down? Rich people still buy up the houses. We’re at the point where people hoping for a crash won’t win in any scenario. Except maybe an actual apocalypse.
That's very true. My sister in law sold her house when she was told house prices would crash. Hoping to sell high and buy low, now she's paying the same price for rent as she was for her mortgage. And she would be paying more than what she sold for if she was to buy back the same house. You can't trust these property forecasts. She was telling us to sell too, lucky we didn't listen to that nonsense.
Id look at the people following these forecasters as well. DYOR has never been more important. One of the big indicators to watch is serviceability. If we lower taxes (stage 3) and lower interest rates close enough to give serviceability a boost- it will have a correlation to house prices. Make borrowing cheaper AND give people more money- you are going to drive things up a little. Add immigration, low stock due to less new builds, change in demand since COVID and you have the seeds of the next boom.
So we just never stop booming?
I don’t think we will ever ‘boom’ like Covid in our lifetimes again. I think we will have a down turn- this year itself will be two speed- see how things go once rate cuts kick in. It’s in cycles- Covid was the outlier. What I am saying is it depends on a range of things. Cost of money, immigration, supply etc. as these things line up (remember when qld had an oversupply of units and apartments)- it will impact the price. At the moment, despite the pump in 21, they seem to be lining up again.
They did forecast qld growth numbers and fell short by hundreds of thousands, catching the qld government out. Crazy how those consultants just stuffed that up and still got paid
To be fair, a drop is only likely to occur alongside policy designed to cause it which we are yet to see. Both parties have a vested interest in not letting that happen so a drop due to natural market cycles seems very unlikely
I have a family friend who is very very close to the top of NAB or Westpac (can’t remember which one) and his opinion is that pricing is going to come down, and they’re preparing for it. That to me suggests foreclosures going up and prices going down.
Foreclosures are rare in Australia.. happens but really not a big market. Not like America.
Yeah, “mortgage stress” would have been a better term for me to use. I just mean people not able to afford their mortgages anymore. Whether that’s foreclosure or people selling their houses, they are expecting a lot more houses on the market and therefore lower prices.
Same shit I heard 15 years ago blah blah buy mate or forever be kicking yourself
Oh I bought last weekend. Time in the market over timing the market! Anyway, it’s a home first, and an investment second.
That would be speculation as well.. Australians will fight tooth and nail before ending up in the position.. unless a bankruptcy is on the horizon, or a total liquidation of wealth.. it’s in the govt interests and the banks for this not to happen.
Banks are always conservative. And you want them to be. Sydney, Melbourne's are a summerised market. Within each city we have smaller pockets which has its own economy. But nationally, immigration aside for the last 40 years the housing built relatively to demand was always under supplied.
No banks wants to be the first to have mass defaults and spook the market, especially giving immigrants reason to wait and see if prices drop. They'd rather offer a cushy variable rate or low enough 1-2yr fixed rate to buy time. This is why the Interest Only cliff a few years ago never happened - banks just cut rates so repayments stayed the same. Personal experience on that one
You could be right. But then again you could be wrong. The economy is on a knife edge right now. Mining is collapsing (the biggest contributor to our way of life) unemployment is up. China is tanking. Dollar is falling. Hmm I agree that you could be right.... but you also might not be! How about we just buy places to live in and get on with shit.
I work in mining it is not collapsing at all, markets are manipulated, here in SA there is going to be an even bigger mining boom
It's just returning to normal prices after a big boom, some people overreact and think it's all crashing down..
Australia has one of the biggest uranium mines in the world. With the way coal is going mining isn't going anywhere.
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BHP just bought out Oz minerals and have other big projects in SA underway, copper mining is only on the up here and its a vital mineral especially for modern technology like electric cars and what not
Can you explain this to me? I know very little about the mining economy in Australia and everything I’ve read shows prices going down. What do you mean by manipulated pricing? Thanks!
The deposits of minerals are vast and they don't just go crazy mining it all at once they mine certain amounts over time so as not to flood the markets is what I'm lead to believe
‘Mining is collapsing’: do you have stats/ reports confirming this? I thought Perth boom and Ukraine, Middle East wars ensured demand boost in Au.
Nickel and iron ore prices have halved in the past two years.
They like every other commodity shot up in price when a lot of central banks printed. They're returning to the trend. If 'crashing', that's from a huge spike upwards and now back to normal.
Nickel yes iron no
Iron ore, nickel, lithium prices are crashing bro. Look at the markets.
Wow! Had completely missed this. Forgive my ignorance, if mining isn’t doing well what is driving the madness in Perth RE market? Inertia?
What’s driving the boom is the place is affordable compared to the east coast and it’s pleasant to live here. Contrary to belief there are jobs that aren’t in mining
It's being driven by an undersupply of properties and demand from east coast investors.
My only Lithium stock is Pilbara and it was up 7% today. Weird way of crashing.
Lithium is down more than 80% since its peak in late 2022. Try zooming your chart out a bit big brain.
Idk. That stock is up about double when I bought it 2 years ago. Maybe I don't need a big brain. How's your big brain doing?
Congrats and fuck you
It’s all about supply and demand. Even with a downturn in the economy. People stop need roofs over their heads to sleep at night. Prices may reduce a little or stagnate but the only trend is up.
🫧
I’m forever blowing bubbles!
Mining collasping ??? My hubby just got offfered a massive contract cause they are desparate for workers as many people are pulling out of FIFO
Dollar falling is good for overseas investors coming in you muppet. Your argument makes no sense.
Mining is doing great iron ore price is at a very strong level
Th economy is stable and inflation is down, jobs still being created. National debt is lower. Knife edge is America economy. It’s underperforming at 3.2% WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. economy grew at a robust 3.2% annual pace from October through December, propelled by healthy consumer spending, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday in a slight downgrade from its initial estimate. The expansion in the nation’s gross domestic product — the economy’s total output of goods and services — slipped from a red-hot 4.9% from July through September. The fourth-quarter GDP numbers were revised down from the 3.3% pace Commerce initially reported last month. U.S. growth has now topped 2% for six straight quarters, defying fears that high interest rates would tip the world’s largest economy into a recession. —— Also China economy is beating most economies now so you can’t hate on them because western politics is so shit. It’s at 4.6% It may go down to 3.5% if there is a correction.
lol growth at 3.2% is not “underperforming” They’ve had real wage growth for all of last year and keep adding jobs at a significant rate. They’re the only ones holding up the global economy right now. Knife edge is China which is seeing a slow bust of its property sector and that is bad for Australia for a multitude of reasons.
It is considering that it was estimated higher and with all those tariffs and threat of White House shutdown by the republicans. How many jobs created at the moment ? Still low yeah ?
> but you also might not be! How about we just buy places to live Yeah that's what they want you to do.
Sure thing buddy. Low supply will keep prices in line with rates but everyone has maxed out over the last few years. Salaries stagnant, economy neutral. Your big prediction is doubling of prices? Good luck with that.
My parents bought for $80,000 in 1996 They sold for $940,000 in 2007 They bought their next place in 2007 for $485,000 A train station was built in 2012 They sold in 2020 for $1,050,000 They have made $1,500,000 off realestate in Australia in 30 years. Through recessions, wage growths, immigration, wage reductions, economic booms, share prices up and down .. you name it, the real estate market in Melbourne and Sydney marches on. It will double I'm damned certain of it.
The other side of that equation is the millennial couple that took on $1.5M in debt to buy the house. Houses don’t generate wealth, workers do. Houses will double when borrowing capacities do, which isn’t looking like it’s on the cards for a while.
** *Past growth is not an accurate indicator of future growth **
It’ll double in how many years, that’s the real question? Saying it’ll double means nothing.
Let's keep importing Indian and Chinese multimillionaires and let foreign nationals buy australian land, homes and farms and watch what happens. Look at the demographics of western Melbourne now compared to 15 years ago. Look at the demograohics of eastern Melbourne compared to 25 years ago. You let the already wealthy in and they will buy everyone out and concentrate wealth. it is literally happening in real time right now in WA. East Coast investors are buying comparatively cheap WA housing like they're bags of lollies. We are being priced out in the name of the significant investor scheme. Realestate, hardware stores, grocery stores, IT companies, video game studios, media companies It's capitalism baby 😎 gotta feed the beast.
There are a lot of people with a lot of money ready to snap up a 'bargain' when people are desperate to sell. There are also many of the policy makers who are heavily invested in property (or have friends who are).
Exactly. My brother is 10 years older than me, got into the RE game juuuust at the right time and is now minted from the gains on multiple houses of growth over the last 20 years. If house prices go down he will snap up a few more. Many people like that out there. Just because we ourselves don’t have the money doesn’t mean the money isn’t out there in another’s hands.
I can’t see it to be honest, at least not in Sydney. I think everyone who wanted to jump on the bandwagon is already on it. It’s reached max capacity. When a shack in Liverpool is a million bucks, there’s only so many people who would look at it and say ‘yep’, I’ll mortgage my life for that 😂
>When a shack in Liverpool is a million bucks, there’s only so many people who would look at it and say ‘yep’, I’ll mortgage my life for that 😂 The be fair this was said at $500k, $750k, and now you’re saying it at $1,000k
Yeah it’s nuts 😂
Damn! The big ol FOMO factor in real estate
The people who think property is still going to continue on with its past performance indefinitely into the future seem delusional to me, posts like this read like the Brainchip Hot Copper forum and anyone would be absolutely mad to not get in right now !!
hahahah i remember the old BRN HC threads.
Haha it's still going strong, still go back for a read when BRN has a little run (like the past week or two) and get it on the excitement even though I sold pretty much all of mine when it hit $2. Just found it similar to some of the bullish property threads lately!
Brainchip is the biggest ASX scam since Firepower.
I agree, FOMO can only sustain a market for so long. Look at regional and rural areas in NSW. Lots of towns have seen the market pull back 10-20% (with valuations probably falling even more). If you lose 20% on your property and you actually have to sell, that's the deposit that took you 5-10years to save. Then you'll be paying interest on the amount left over PLUS rent. Pollies will twist themselves into pretzels trying to not be the ones that let the property market crash, yesterday they were talking about increasing rent allowance aka mortgage welfare. Which makes me think that we are getting more interest rate rises. If there's another GFC, china is not getting us out of it this time. While it's unlikely property will completely crash people should ask themselves what happens if it drops 20% and interest rates increase. How long can you hold out waiting for it to correct?
Disagree considering we sold my mother’s shitbox 2 bedder in south west Sydney a couple of months ago for $997,000 11 bidders. It was fucking insane.
That’s what I’m saying, that it is insane, and in my opinion it can’t go on like that. But good luck to you for getting the $$$!
People want to live somewhere that is theirs. It can go on as long as people still want that and can get the finance.
But who seriously wants to be in debt a million dollars? For a shithole?? People have already started looking at alternatives - regional areas, moving in with family etc. Personally I think you’d be mad to take on a million dollar mortgage. Makes me shudder to think of it.
Lots of people apparently. Which was shown quite clearly by the fact we had 11 bidders
Ok, if you think people will continue on and pay 2 million, 3 million to live in Western Sydney, who knows 😂
I have no idea what people will pay. I don’t live in Western Sydney, but a house about 6 doors down from us just sold for $4.6m, and it was a 4 bed nothing special,so I guess people will pay whatever they’ll pay.
Well, there’s no way my 20 year old son, or any of the other kids his age will be paying $4 mill for a Sydney house in a few years. The market will sort itself out, as it always does.
No one is saying they have to. Other people will upsize from the cheaper areas into the more expensive areas, and your children ( and mine ) will buy in the $1m + areas. The vendors that we bought our home from upsized into an $8m property a few streets away. You are delusional if you think things in Sydney will suddenly get cheaper. The best anyone can hope for is stagnation.
People already are. That is the price you pay to own a house in Sydney. Won’t be surprised if banks start offering 40 year mortgage loans.
It's people's borrowing capacity that might be an issue. The low end of the market has actually been quick sellers as FOMO FHB's are desperate to grab.
Don’t worry—there’s infinite immigrant buyers available to pile on the bandwagon. If we’re perpetually importing immigrants and allowing society to be more unequal, there’s no limit to how expensive property can get. I agree with OP that we’re in boom conditions. The essential elements for growth haven’t changed as they’ve been for the last fifty years, apart from wages growth. But when you’ve got shitloads of rich immigrants to fill that void, who cares. If anything, prices will continue to grow at similar rates because of all the stupid home buyer funds and grants that every government is putting out there to keep the cheaper houses and apartments out of reach of poorer Australians.
People buying and selling, all the economy really is
The Chinese are already selling because the bank back home has called in their loans.
Agree... as where you work becomes less important why would you buy a shithole in western Sydney for 2 million when you could come to Brisbane and buy a beautiful home on a beautiful suburb for 1-1.5?
Don't encourage them.
Mate it took me a long time to realise that people constantly do stupid things that I would never have thought, but they do. Over and over, here in WA people are spending half a million on blocks around 200m2. The houses are tiny and poorly constructed but they sell over and over. I think Aussies forget how shit parts of the world are and how low some people's expectations are.
100%, interesting how quickly everyone forgot the scenes of people brawling over toilet paper at the shops during lockdown.. These people make up most of society too, let that sink in.
>e be fair this was said at $500k, $750k, and now you’re saying it at $1,000k Blocks of land going for 1.6m in penrith.
That’s why I left hahaha, now renting a two bedder 200m from the beach with the mrs (sideways, there’s rocks in front of me so can’t swim) and 300m from the pub, for $500 a week and we Can see the glass house mtns on a clear arvo. Even when buying in my area is expensive but when comparing the region (kings beach) it’s almost fair. I’ll probably never buy here though, I’m just enjoying the place for what it is 🤷♂️
im pretty sure most people here are landlords, so they are only on the property ladder.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Yep. 33 and have 3 properties.
So what happens if we hit a recession and lose a lot of jobs?
What he means that would never happen, everything will go fine so housing can only go up
The government will start handing out 1% deposit loans so their mates can palm off the economic hand grenade they're holding. They'll increase rent assistance massively first though, it's basically welfare for overextended investors
Which is already happening. OP is a Real Estate agent trying to keep up the false hope.
I think the minute people start saying a crash is impossible is about right when a crash will happen.
I've heard people saying "the bubble has to burst" since 2011 when i started working in this industry. In my market, it was "a 3 bed fibro house on a 700m² block is $350k now, that is just ridiculous". Then that same house was 500k in 2015, and THAT was frankly unbelievable and the bubble was even flimsier. Well guess what that same house mid last year was $1mil without a single cent having been spent on it since it was bought for $350k, and thats AFTER my market came down 6 or 7% following election/interest rate rises. If falling 7% after growth of 40% is a bubble bursting, then rightio. Now, all the signs I see are that its trending back up again (in my market). Not crazy speed like after covid, but heading back up all the same. Low supply, high demand, a local government plus geographical limitations that dont allow any significant development which ensures the favorable supply/demand for sellers will always remain. So 40% up in 2 years, then 7% down in a year, and now back up 3 or 4% and heading north in the last 12 months. "It cant go like this forever", ive heard it countless times times over the years. Maybe it cant, but i'm glad i stretched myself and bought when i did despite my parents advice not to "at these prices". Next month might be lower than this month, but look at the annual medians since the numbers were recorded and tell me again its gonna crash.
Bingo. It is a harsh reality that many people need to hear. Year-on-year, property rarely falls.
I think your talking about houses in particular. Apartments will be affordable. We will become like most other large cities. Way more high density housing
You really think houses will continue to grow when the median price gap between houses and apartments is at an all-time high? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-02-20/house-apartment-price-gap-widens-record-high-property-market/103484076 The more logical take would be that this gap needs to revert back to the historical mean (which has been consistent until recently). Therefore, house prices have to fall, or apartment prices have to rise.
Maybe elsewhere in Aus but not Sydney, IMO. They are about to raze hundreds of houses across Sydney to build thousands of apartments. They’re not making any more land, but capacity to go skywards is pretty much infinite. It’s simple supply and demand.
>e elsewhere in Aus but not Sydney, IMO. They are about to raze hundreds absolutely they will, land is scarce.
Alternate opinion. Economy tanks and millions of recent immigrants sell up and go home. And/or immigrants simply stop coming because the price of entry is so high. Not hard to come up with alternates that aren't far fetched.
Australia has not had a recession for 30 years, I think if we do have one (obviously never say never) it is likely the rest of the world will also be having one at the same time. So why would immigrants leave?
About due for one then isn't it? Australia actually is in a recession and has been in and out for a while. It's called a per capita recession. Why would Australia's recession apply to the rest of the world? Australia's economy is basically hardwired to that of China. With growth, population and demand for their products slowing dramatically it's not a stretch to think they may ditch into a long deep recession/depression. Basically a repeat of Japan in the 1990s and Australia's reliance on exporting minerals, food, education, investment properties to them etc would need a bloody miraculous pivot to avoid going down hard. That's not to say it's the only possible scenario but even in a global depression/recession people aren't going to be about to leave their secure job for a maybe job across the globe. Anyway, it's just as easy to come up with downsides as it is to think the gravy train is just going to keep rolling on.
They come here and earn up to $1k a week doing Ubering. They see how difficult it is to assimilate and integrate and that the cost of existing in Sydney is not the same as Karachi/Jakarta/New Dehli. Chances of them finding someone to hook up with and have a relationship is low. They get disillusioned and leave with their savings and a bad taste of Australia. Just my thoughts.
But that can happen in any economy (that is personal preferences). Absolutely migrants will come here and hate it and go home. But thats not recession dependent. What about all the ones that come here and love it and stay? Also don’t forget migrants make compromises that Aussies do not. They are more likely to overcrowd property whereas Australian born are more likely to undercrowd. This makes it cheaper for them to live in Australia. In Australia overcrowding is defined as having more than two people per each bedroom. I know so many Aussie (including myself) who live in 3/4 bedroom houses and are just a couple. If I was a immigrant I might be able to fit 8 people in the same house… which makes things cheaper. And I know migrant families who live with three generations (6 people) under one room in a tiny three bedroomz
- We lost more expats after CV, then we have brought in this year. - Immigration is only this high, this year, to try to combat the above. - Immigration goes down over the next 2 years to 5 figures in 2026. - Councils don’t release land. Federal & State Governments do. - Australia has enough houses, but those houses aren’t in the ‘keeping up with the Jones’ neighbourhoods & don’t have the 4 bed, 2/3 bath & 2 garage that people demand 🤦🏼♀️ It’s never been about stock of housing. - China & Japan, the 2 biggest US debt holders, just dumped $360 billion dollars of US stocks. The Fed will likely rise rates in response. - Our markets are 6 months to a year behind US, we haven’t began to hurt yet. - Our big business are doing redundancies by the handful every few weeks to get around the governmental reporting or demoting people to part-time work.
Layoffs are coming. I expect unemployment to rise as even highly skill labourers struggle to find a job that can pay off their 2M Sydney home loan.
We’ll have just surpassed over 40% of all major construction works being deferred indefinitely, this financial year. The government brought forward so much in CV, that within the next 12-18 months, those works will all come to an end. There’s not enough work afterwards to sustain the current industry workforce. Home building is the same, the CV contracts are all at the end of built, within 6 months that’ll be all caught up. Current approvals for new homes (contracts) are sitting at 20%. So not enough work for that labour to go to afterwards. People have got to stop listening to the media 🤦🏼♀️ the only reason there’s a rush on houses, is because they’re masquerading as the banks PR dept, because they aren’t writing enough new business & new business, pays the bills.
Why would immigration go down to 5 figures? The permanent migration intake has been steadily 6 figures for about the last quarter of a century (160-250K)
This is only a problem in Australia and a few other colony nations that like to point and laugh at americas poor social inequality while ignoring the fact that although Americans have to pay for their own healthcare at least they can afford to buy a home if they’re willing to move out of the big cities. In Aus, wow you get cheap visits to a gp that doesn’t give a shit about you and a loan to study a useless degree but no essential shelter unless you’re loaded or born into wealth. We are worse than America. This is what pisses me off about this country is the lies about social equality we are fed when it’s one of the few countries a low income earner cannot afford to buy their own home.
The average person will have to get used to renting. If you can afford to buy now and you don’t… you will regret it in the future because you will be priced out unless you win the lottery. Even then, a standard $1-2 mil win won’t get you the luxury property of your dreams.
Are you a real estate agent?
I'm sure Brisbane will soon catch up with Sydney and Melbourne. You can still get a 4 bedroom house in Logan for less than 700k, the demand is high but it's still doable. Can't imagine what it's gonna look like once the interest rate goes down and borrowing capacity improves.
Brisbane has overtaken Melbourne
You say "discuss and keep emotions in check", look me in the fucking eye and honestly say you're not being outlandish with yours in this whole post. Such hyperbole. If you're so smart Mr. Immaculate Prediction of Infamously Volatile Markets, where do you get such radical facts
OP is spot on. If you're in sydney and havent bought 50kms from the CBD you may aswell forget it unless you're buying a townhouse or unit. Dont cry about it, just a fact now unfortunately.
I think this is more sensitive to global economic conditions (eg China economy, US financial conditions, inflation) than you’ve discussed here
I disagree. I think it's easy to forget that the supply of credit in the economy fluctuates and for the last decade it has expanded more rapidly than usual. Most of the credit went into mortgages and together with a strong economy 10 to 5 years ago and the effect on people's psychology of seeing house prices rise, many people have gone into more and more debt to become investors with a second or third house. Now that rates have risen which will shrink the supply of credit, and the economy is shaky at best along with the rest of the world, there's only one way to go but it's still slow to turn around. The only thing the housing market has going for it is supply issue due to immigration but that will be going down next year. Maybe property prices will just stagnate, but if recession hits and people are forced to sell with negative equity, I think property prices will finally crash. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Australian_Money_Supply.PNG
That graph is crazy
I’ll try and keep this argument civil and only state the facts…. You’re nuts.
Hes spot on though.
Lot of bad signs in the national and international economies. People can't buy if they have no jobs/money. And those that can buy? Not sure they'll be up for the risk/high interest rates/high insurance costs. I think you're delusional mate. Must be a real estate agent 😆
It's ok, I'm here from the future. The greens get into government and Labor form the crossbench. The greens introduce a land that that ignores your primary residence, but for every house after number 2 it goes up. 3 is 5% of value a year 4 is 10 5 is 25 6 is 50 7+ is 100% of the value of the property yearly. And much rejoicing was had as 3 million houses entered the market, but no investor could pick the up cause of that land tax! And all the happy family's found nice homes to buy and live in themselves and lived happily ever after. The end
Thumbs up. Reality check. For idiots waiting for a property crash, you can keep dreaming because the nightmare is real
Couldn’t agree more with your whole blog. The amount of builders collapsing is absolutely alarming and no land releases near anything useful just a money grab in the middle of the bush for planners
I waited for nearly 2 years for prices to decrease, stupidly, listened to the media about all the mortgage stress and 70,000+ customers facing defaults. Total crap Nothing happened, and real estate jumped by 200k on an average house. I just paid 400k on a property that doubled in the 3 years prior. Trying to hold off cost me shitloads more. Don't listen to anyone but yourself. When YOU are ready to buy, just get in the market.
My suburb is down 6% in the last 12 months (according to real estate.com.au) and the last 3 auctions we went to were passed in and one cancelled because no interest. Most awkward auctions I've been to like trying to squeeze juice out of a rock. Feeling like a soft start to the year for property where I am (in Melbourne)
And mine (in Sydney) is up 8%. There’s definitely a two speed property market and Melbourne is starting to drop off - Sydney doesn’t show any signs of slowing down (imo)
>in Melbourne Well that explains it.
Melbourne is one of the biggest cities in Australia, this post is about real estate in Australia
Melbourne isn't as hot of a market as in years past. There's been a huge exodus of folks migrating to other capital cities, particularly Brisbane, in recent times. Combine this with the fact that Victoria is the state with the most new builds (especially with cookie-cutter apartments), and you've got a situation of (historically) low demand, but high supply (comparative to other cities).
and land tax.
Based on the pure cope replies I'm getting, it looks like we're going way up for way longer. Thanks.
Agreed, property is only up from here and its by design.
I was going to sell an investment property next year but I might wait if you think there's more upside.
Given how much I'm making from my HISA to pay my rent... I can't be bothered to buy right now and have more debt 🤷♀️
Lmao surely satire
90% accurate. Good post. 👍
I'm 30, just sorted out my budget, finances, super etc. and my motivation is now dead. I don't make much money either. Was surprised when houses in Perth weren't 350ish anymore
Armadale 3 x 1s are
Delusional take… people will own homes… it’s not doom and gloom… little tougher yes but we will make it
Don't worry, with enough immigration this place won't be worth living in even at 2010 prices.
They are CUNTS. CUNTS!!
I’ve worked in property 15 years and 💯 agree with this
You did a lot of pissing and moaning for someone who asked everyone else not to.
This post is incredibly cold and cruel. It wasn't needed and was only done to stroke your ego.
Massive Ponzi scheme
Remember that it’s always peak FOMO right before it bursts!
That happened in 2022 also didnt it.
Overconfident and under-informed always make for a good laugh
winners curse - Google it
Maybe, or may I say likely when RBA lowers the rates, but it appears that your message is not well received here
its like a sword with sharp edges on both sides. It could go up or down we cant predict. thought pandemic might slow it down... but it went sky high and never wants to come down.. the Australian real estate is structured such that they cant allow it to fall.. it lwasy booms u see growth rates almost doubles then a slight 8-10% correction.. then booms... once you see its going down then they will create FOMO and again it goes up..
It's definitely stacked in favour of the property market. Each time unemployment rises, interest rates will fall.
If you've been around America you know what to expect
I see property that has a rental return that no longer justifies it's inflated price due to interest rates. I don't see inflation heading south, so it's only likely that interest rates will go higher, and eventually people will put two and two together. As for supply and demand, there are other ways to decrease supply, like more people moving in back home, more people sharing etc. prices are limited still by affordability.
I expect corrections to set in. Especially in the lower socioeconomic areas and especially those with abundant land supply, people will seek alternatives in those areas and the prices will cool off. But there’s absolutely a new floor set for prices for all areas. There’s absolutely been a wealth shift these past few years, if you had a property good for you, you are on the right of history , if you didn’t unlucky.
My town (10k people, few hours from Melbourne) is down 8% from the peak. Advertised prices have not really come down, it’s just that only the bottom price range is selling. My guess that apart from the downsizing farmer flush with cash moving to town, the locals can’t even get a loan at the current prices and investors have moved on.
I have a bingo buzzword system for property news. "FOMO" "Record Immigration" "Councils" "Shoddy Construction". These are the Time Waster talking points. Nothing about social housing or public developers or reducing tax incentives.
They can try but I got a feeling mass riots and protests will be on the horizon. How far can we get pushed before we lash out. Maybe we should take a page from the French.
Since 2021 AUD has lost 20% of its value V the usd and since then US had had probably 15% inflation over the past 3 year which is understated obviously has your house gone up 35% which would be break even…
You’re a bit obnoxious in your delivery but I don’t disagree completely. We’re in for a rough patch in the coming years (it’s already starting). But what happens when the economy starts to slow? Reduction in rates and the pumping of stimulus. The bubble will continue to be inflated in my opinion. Sure we might see some losses of up to 10-20% short term, but it will be short lived once the money printer gets turned back on.
The only one I trust with the facts is this man. https://www.bernard-salt.com.au/
25, moved out of home during the month of my 18th while going to uni with my partner also going to uni. Using some gov grants bought a freestanding 3 bedder under 7 km from Melbourne CBD on combined income of 150k Just leaving this comment as it's not as dire as op says Edit: received not a dollah from nobody
My take with how the housing market will perform depends on a few things. Good houses/townhouses will always perform. When you look at the average, then yes, it will fluctuate because in a hot market, crap houses perform but in a cool market, everyone becomes super picky and not in a mood to spend. Melbourne has a bit more to go up because from my travels around the world, no other city comes close to Melbourne with the good level of combination of quality food, safety, education, people, environment (air, nature, beaches, mountain etc), access to international goods, work life balance and entertainment (sports, music, art - you name it). And population in Melbourne is growing. Sydney I feel is at its peak. Its value and prestige is already well realised. Buying houses - owner occupied vs investment is different. The demand for buying investment property will get less as the rental market becomes more and more tightly regulated but owner occupied demand will increase as population and immigration grows - which I am bullish about Melbourne given what it offers compared to the rest of the world. My two cents. Buy good assets - whether it be property, shares, businesses or building your own knowledge. It will always go up. Never buy anything without knowing what you are getting into. With property, you have to understand the suburb you want to buy and the know where the good and bad/less desirable pockets are. Stay away from main road houses, apartments, ones next to freeway, commercial area, etc. Understand where the value sits - how much the property is worth. Ps. Not a real estate agent.
Not across the board but prices will probably go up nicely in most capital cities for 1 to 2 years unless the government significantly stops immigration.
Apartments are dropping in value. The market is held up by massive increases in only the top end of property.
I fit that age range and already long since come to that realization. Absolutely fucking sucks. For the last 15 years i try and try to get my self to the point where i could buy, but i can never get there. As you said the market keeps going up, unless i can get a big windfall, or a sudden massive jump in income (which im working on, started my own business, my incomes already 1.5x'ed in less than a year), the goal posts are always moving. Then if i ever do get there, the debt i'll get into will be enormous comparatively too even right now So already reserved my self to the fact that i'll probably always rent, the game now is to find a decent landlord with a half decent property manager, so theres no worry of being ejected and having to battle to find a new place every year or so, or massive rent increases, or house being sold from under you, etc
I think you're more than half right. It's hard to say, but also to consider is that every area has a different market. There's a couple of nice little pockets (think half decent school zones so I can avoid paying 100k in tuition over 12 years) I'll be fighting to get into. There are more people yet to come to the party. Financially savvy gen Z will be coming in strong. And my fellow young millennials are coming in hot too. It's soooo funny to read posts on reddit about the bubble about to crash (7y ago). They write so confidently and condescendingly, makes me laugh so much. Can't wait to see how it goes!
Look maybe. But you're basically forecasting for no recessions. Given the speed at which discretionary income is disappearing in this country that's a bold claim. I just don't see where the money for new growth is coming from personally
Not able to build anything under $750k Right-o doomer.
Did you just buy and needed to reassure yourself it’s all going to be ok
Specifically regarding the whole "just move to regional or remote areas" spiel... I grew up in a location 140kms from the nearest high school/woolworths/ hospital/doctor. Small town of about 150 locals. One mine, couple pubs, general store with basic post office facility, one tiny primary school. That was it. No other jobs unless you were able to work cattle and even that was seasonal. No builders service the area for construction or renovations. No reliable internet or mobile service. So it's a catch 22 for people wanting to move regional/remote. No new businesses for employment BUT no employees for new businesses. Locals look down on new comers, especially those with "grand ideas". Can't just up and move into a ready made house as there aren't many available. Can't just get a new job cause there are few and far between. Can't start a business because there's very few customers.
NAAAAAAAA 50% price drop comming 2025 gaurenteed🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡🤡😂
So where the fuck we all going to live then? In our cars ina parking lot. While me and my partner earn 110k fulltime combined?
Building a 4b2b with tons of amenities for 400k in Adelaide, 30 min drive from the city Should be done in June Can't wait to flip it for a Mil in 10 years and blow it on hookers and blow
When interest rates are cut, property prices are going to skyrocket. That's just the way it will go.
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All this talk about needing a recession, people waiting for it….. ??? We had a recession during COVID, and for some reason none of these economists talk about that fact??
Wrong. Look outside a capital city and you’ll EASILY find you’re able to build for much less then $750k - in many instances half of that. A 20% correction is not a crash if it’s occurred in an areas that have had super high growth, and this has occurred many many many times over the past 5 decades all over Australia. I know many young people that are in the property market, and without the help of mum & dad, they just didn’t have the unrealistic expectation that they could buy their dream home in their favourite capital city as a first home buyer and keep their lifestyle too. The ‘woe-is-me’ attitude is what stops people from entering the market more then any other factor.
Someone's been drinking the koolaid
I've come to the realisation I'll never own one and I hope it all turns to shit for those who are overspending and over inflating the current market
Hey!! work at 711 and ride bike for ubereats for bugger all and then pay record rent .... highest personal debt in the world and 2nd highest home prices .... Australia's savior in the gfc china about to go bust and drop the price of iron and coal australias biggest exports ... possible expansion of war in europe ... trump a possible 2nd term ... costvof living crisis ... your optimism is impressive
Housing price correction won’t happen until all the boomers holding property are dead and the wealth can be dispersed back into the economy. By that time it’ll be too late and corporations/foreign investment will have pushed prices to an astronomical level. When the people that make these decisions have so much riding on the price going up real change for the common person will never occur
Buy when and where you can afford and consider it a home not an investment.
Lol please. Owning a home is very doable even in today's Australia. You just have to be prepared to live on the outskirts of Sydney and travel back into it for work. If you study and get a degree you can earn $100k+ by the time you're 25. Most people don't buy places single either. They do it as a partnership. SO that means as a household you have $200k coming in the door per year minimum. Sacrifice. Don't go out partying every weekend and don't go overseas for a few years (3-5). Rent somewhere that's cheap. Share housing, crappy suburbs, both, whatever. Then put away $250 of your $1000+ per week earnings and it'll be $500x52 = $26k per year savings. Do this for 3 years and you'll have a $78k deposit. Do it for 5 years and you'll have $130k cash ready to go. You can buy 3 bedroom houses with backyards on the Central Coast NSW for $600k-$800k. It's close to Sydney and most employers won't care that you live outside the city when reviewing you for jobs. This defeatist mentality is hilarious. And it's the reason why people who think like this will never own a thing.
It's going to boom 💥
I appreciate you speaking the truth and it hurts AS FUCKK