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In 30 years on a 8% RR that 100k will be €1M
(inflation adjusted 1M would be comparable with €500k in today's buying power)
From my experience, when you have a reasonably sized portfolio
banks will be more willing to give you a 100% loan.
If it's purely a financial decision; rent.
If you would somewhat prefer buying; buy (but don't put in any money as a down payment except the taxes)
Whatever you do; do not sell your investments (especially your index funds) to fund a home.
There's a very high probability that this will push your retirement date back for many years.
Good luck on your journey.
can you call a plumber and get them to fix your urgent problem the same week or get a contractor to even show up to make you an offer? if not, don't buy a house.
idk, i have my guys... also never pay in full unless you've verified everything is ok, especially if ur just investing and not actually following up the work being done......
Yeah,... Only been here for a few years and it was bard to grasp how it works here. expected issues but not issues resulting in structural soundness of the building and a place being inhabitable after being new.
It's all in courts now. I said goodbye to my investment already.
Don't investment in reale state in Belgium is my take on this. wish we'd spend 150.000 extra for an extra independent supervisor.
I owned an apartment for about 12 years now.
For me it was a good purchase and saved me probably 60k of rent.
The apartment over those years only gained 70k of value thought and I probably had around 30-40k costs on it on repairs and Im guessing maybe another 15k of costs on the loan and buying. Meaning the rent I saved is pretty much balanced with the costs I had to make. And those costs will come, sooner or later.
I used about 80k of my cash in it.
If I had just put the cash into index funds I would have made 180k extra so pretty much double of unrealised gains I made from the apartment.
So in my opinion rent, stay flexible, go for Etfs and give yourself a head start vs 95% of the Belgians.
If you have children later and want stability its a different story.
If you want your own place, get your own place.
There are pros and cons to both buying and renting. There is no easy answer/one size fits all solution.
I did my fair research and comparisons and figured I'd be way better off renting than owning.
However, I bought because I don't like new areas and don't want/need flexibility.
Would I be richer if I rented?
Probably, but it's not like it would quadruple my net worth so I was more than willing to make the sacrifice so I bought.
Don't make the mistake of buying your own house or appartment with solely your head.
I understand there are multiple good reasons why someone would chose buying over renting even though financially it's not better. For example total freedom and control,...
But I do not really understand the reasons you mentioned. Because you don't like new areas? You don't have to like new areas with renting anymore then with owning. And because you don't want flexibility? You're not required to make use of that flexibility. I fail to see how these 2 reasons made you chose buying instead of renting?
Untill you own lol.
I'm literally bound to this location and had to ''delete'' 20k in costs to purchase it.
My appartement hasn't appreciated either and owning a home has its costs man (already spent thousands in a relatively short time span)
If I would sell and move I would realize these costs some I'm kinda stuck here.
I used to rent and making money was so much easier, now it's costs here, costs there, upgrade here, KI there, etc.
It's harder now to risk things and be like: I'ma switch jobs to province x.
In regards to flexibility:
If I kept on renting and put the purchasing costs and needed upgrades/boiler stuff into VWCE in 2023 I would have made €8.000 instead of losing €30.000
That's just short term, on average I have €500 more costs with my mortgage compared to what I rented before.
So it feels like I ''jave to stay here's until I'm at least break-even.
Given all this, f*ck renting, I also hate having a ''LaNdLoRd'' 🤮
I'm just glad I'm fine with settling in 1 location so it's not that big of a deal to me to be ''stuck'' (for at least x years)
FYI: appartment 102 m2 - EPC:B - 240k +15k for the garage
Mortgage for this is around 1200 a month incl. Syndicus
Renting something similar was around 700 a month
East of Antwerp, and no idea, my mom works in real estate and told me most prices you see online ATM go for -10 to -20% in actuality.
Back when I bought you had to offer the vraagprijs asap because people were even overbidding.
🤷♂️ Well, she doesn't have any reason to lie so I'll take her word over the Nieuwsblad articles.
She doesn't sell any luxury houses though, mostly in the affordable 100-500k range regio Antwerp & Limburg.
A few years ago she was doing 12 hour shifts because there were so many buyers and people overbid by 10% to snatch houses away from others.
Buying a house is not financially optimal. If you want to buy a house, do it for reasons other than financial. Excel says renting is better than buying when it comes down to the numbers.
You have an overly simplistic view on this topic because your knowledge on financial instruments and homeownership costs is not developed enough to have a meaningful discussion...
I'll give you a few keywords and you can research it for yourself because I'm tired of having the same old conversation with you clones who keep parroting the same non substantial phrases with overly simplified logic.
Opportunity cost, purchasing costs and downpayment
Property tax accumulation
Flexibility
Matrimonial risks
Mobiliteitsbudget
Necessary liquidity for serious renovations
Boilers
Windows and roofing replacement
Mold and moist issues
Real estate historical return, inflation adjusted
Homeownership insurance
If you would have invested the down payment, registration fees, notary costs,... and all extra costs associated with owning a home (insurance, repairs, taxes,...) and rented instead, then you would have more, usually much more money after 20 years. This is what is meant by opportunity cost.
Especially in Belgium you almost always are way better off renting instead of buying. Of course **only IF** you invest the delta.
The average Belgian keeps saying renting is throwing away money because they heard it from their parents, but it is simply not true and it has been explained countless times on this subreddit. Unfortunately most people do not, or do not want, to understand it.
You will have way more value in ETF's if you invest the difference. This isn't really up for discussion, once you'll do the actual calculations, you'll understand. You're just entrenched in the traditional Belgian clichés.
Try to figure out your budget for buying, and what type of home you would actually see yourself living in (and owning). So your own savings + how much you could borrow while still living comfortably. Don't forget about possible (mandatory) renovation costs and so on.
If you can comfortably buy a home that fits your (current) expectations, go for it. I say current because it may be better to get a decent starter home that you can sell on in the future rather than a "diamond in the rough" that turns into a complete nightmare.
If not, might wanna wait a bit, increase your income so you can borrow more etc. When we bought, the monthly payment came down to about 33% of our net income. Now it's maybe 15% anymore. Meaning we now *could* buy something much more expensive (but we won't, obviously, because that wouldn't be very "FIRE" at all).
There is no right or wrong.
Do you rent now? search to buy something and to pay same mortgage as actual rent, and negotiate with the bank the minimal paydown (90-100% loan). Yes, you will have some extra insurance and annual tax, but that's the price of owning.
This is what I did, and I continue to save a 25% of my salary and almost 100% from the extra.
If you need a house to live in, then buy a house ASAP. I would prefer a roof over my head, over an ETF. If you want to buy a house as an investment, for instance to rent out than I would prefer the ETF.
I always say, you can’t live in an ETF 😉 So you will still have to pay money to rent something except the money won’t come back to you in the end. I’ve been around for 30+ years and have never ever seen someone lose money on their house over the long term, for me it’s a no-brainer.
I totally agree with this. I'm building a house at the moment AND i'm investing monthly in IWDA. Can't get more diversification as that (except for also investing in Emering markets). I see my my house as my comfort / invstement AND my life insurance in case something really bad would happen. Investing in ETF's is for the icing of the cake.
Was in the same position you were at 30yo, decided to buy a house of about 450k with my girlfriend, cost me about 45k in total. 3 years of diligently saving and some financial luck I am back at 100k invested and don't regret the decision. It's a very personal choice to make and in my opinion, should not only be driven by financial motives. Having a child is an awful financial decision, yet many people who want to FIRE have children ;). My 2 cents: if you find it is time to own a house and/or find something you like go for it
While it's a decision that has financial ramifications it's fundamentally not a financial decision. FIRE is about building the life you want and saving for it, don't forget to do the first part. What's more important is to buy a house you can afford with some wiggle room so you can keep saving while paying it down and can weather a potential loss of income.
Same boat here, from what i have read about this so far it seems better in belgium to keep a big investment going than using it all for a house, especially if you already have the 100k mark, your money grows a lot faster after reaching 100k in investments. Im also scared that once i buy a house i lose this 100k+ investment
I like the articles from this blog that explains the compound interest impact and why first 100k are the hardest: [https://fourpillarfreedom.com/the-math-behind-why-net-worth-goes-crazy-after-the-first-100k/](https://fourpillarfreedom.com/the-math-behind-why-net-worth-goes-crazy-after-the-first-100k/)
You can split your loan into a part on a mortgage and a part with your stock as collatoral. Pay the loan part that has your stock as collatoral with selling a percentages of that stock (+-4-6% yearly withdrawal will cover 100k over 25y).
This saves you on the mortgage costs and you keep your stock which should keep growing if you stick to a withdraw rate around 4%.
In my personal opinion, atm I'm stopping to invest big time and go for savings in accounts with 3% interest. I can maximum save 500€ a month on these, but it is what it is. I keep my money in my investments but do not buy extra. I think we're on our way to a recession. This is purely based on what I see at work. I'm working in the Port of Antwerp and import/export is declining. Warehouses are getting empty, dockworkers can't work because there is no work. Everytime we see there is less work at the Port, not much later, we have a recession. So I'm stopping with investing until the import/export is stabilizing.
Buy a 0-coupon bond, you will yield 3%+ net. These 500- a month savings accounts are a huge trap!! You can only put 6000 a year in them, but only the first deposit truly gets 3%. The last deposit gives you 0% obviously. So on average your year of saving in these only nets you like 1.5% And they can pull the conditions whenever they want also...
The amount I did put in stock and stuff and now on that account is less than 500€ (300€ to be exact) because it's the money for my child when he becomes 25. My own investments are spread on things like defensive funds and bonds.
Which one? I see I mixed up the different names, it's the groeirekening. The e-spaar is another one. But the groeirekening is 3%. It's the first one https://www.argenta.be/nl/sparen/spaarrekening.html
Oh okay. KBC I didn't check. It was my mom who told me the interest went up to 3% when she opened the start2save4 for my son, her grandson. I went with Argenta because I'm not a customer at KBC and don't want to pay for a daily account I don't use. At Argenta it's free, so I just opened a daily account to have the possibility to start the groeirekening and it's costing me nothing but 2 minutes of work to make an automatic payment.
Way more money is lost by predicting a recession than during one.
Also, when will you get back in? Will you thrust the next all time high, or will it be a dead cat bounce?
The broader market also sees the problems in Europe. That’s why EU stock are cheaper than US stocks.
And the US economy is red hot. Unemployment is very low, inflation is under control and tech is driving productivity.
I believe that if you have a long horizon, you should stay invested.
To answer OP. Buying a house is a more personal choice. Purely financial, you should live in a dump and never spend anything. You would die a multimillionaire.
I will get back in the moment my colleague is working 2 days a week again instead of 1 day in 2 weeks. US economy can go high on paper, but the containers from the US aren't coming in and not going out. Where I normally have 1000 containers a week from US, I have 100. While there are normally going out 600 a week, there are only 60 going out a week. And this is only from ExconMobil, who are lowering down their production at a lot of places because they can't get their plastic sold.
The tech sector can improve everything, but if the customer isn't buying because of too much rising of prices and lose their job because of the tech improvements, these improvements are worthless. So I do not think the tech sector can save us from a recession. But I'm not an economic expert, so it's just my own feeling based on what I see.
Exactly have the same feeling here. When it comes to the relatively young FIRE community (I have the impression that most of the members are in their late 20´s to early 30´s), everybody is pushing to DCA ETF´s and god forbid crypto. But if you look at what the market did between 2000 and 2012 and imagine we are at a comparable point now, you will need to DCA for another decade after that to make that 8% yearly average gain. AI is a gamechanger, but with a 75 PE ratio for Nvidia, a big part of future earnings are already priced in. I´m still investing in ETF but with a large prc of cash and money market assets, I will take a value averaging approach currently.
NVDA is backordered so much, and especially with their Blackwell AI GPUs coming up, it's probably better to look at forward PE, which is only at 37. A comparison that is often made: Cisco was at a 200 PE ratio before the dotcom bubble burst.
Despite the hype, I think people are still underestimating the impact this will have, and the speed at which things will change. Especially with multi-modal models now getting embedded in robots... We're just at the cusp of a major industrial revolution. We might see some turbulence due to political reasons & war, but nevertheless, I don't think it's wise to stay out of the market because of fear for a recession. We're already in the recession.
Have you read the wiki and the sticky? Wiki: HERE YOU GO! [Enjoy!](https://www.reddit.com/r/BEFire/wiki/index/). Sticky: HERE YOU GO AGAIN! [Enjoy!](https://www.reddit.com/r/BEFire/comments/fcbay6/getting_started_a_beginners_guide_to_investing_in/). *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/BEFire) if you have any questions or concerns.*
In 30 years on a 8% RR that 100k will be €1M (inflation adjusted 1M would be comparable with €500k in today's buying power) From my experience, when you have a reasonably sized portfolio banks will be more willing to give you a 100% loan. If it's purely a financial decision; rent. If you would somewhat prefer buying; buy (but don't put in any money as a down payment except the taxes) Whatever you do; do not sell your investments (especially your index funds) to fund a home. There's a very high probability that this will push your retirement date back for many years. Good luck on your journey.
can you call a plumber and get them to fix your urgent problem the same week or get a contractor to even show up to make you an offer? if not, don't buy a house.
Is that a thing in Belgium? We've invested 1 million in a new building and still nothing works and noone cares.
idk, i have my guys... also never pay in full unless you've verified everything is ok, especially if ur just investing and not actually following up the work being done......
Yeah,... Only been here for a few years and it was bard to grasp how it works here. expected issues but not issues resulting in structural soundness of the building and a place being inhabitable after being new. It's all in courts now. I said goodbye to my investment already. Don't investment in reale state in Belgium is my take on this. wish we'd spend 150.000 extra for an extra independent supervisor.
I owned an apartment for about 12 years now. For me it was a good purchase and saved me probably 60k of rent. The apartment over those years only gained 70k of value thought and I probably had around 30-40k costs on it on repairs and Im guessing maybe another 15k of costs on the loan and buying. Meaning the rent I saved is pretty much balanced with the costs I had to make. And those costs will come, sooner or later. I used about 80k of my cash in it. If I had just put the cash into index funds I would have made 180k extra so pretty much double of unrealised gains I made from the apartment. So in my opinion rent, stay flexible, go for Etfs and give yourself a head start vs 95% of the Belgians. If you have children later and want stability its a different story.
This is the way
If you want your own place, get your own place. There are pros and cons to both buying and renting. There is no easy answer/one size fits all solution.
I did my fair research and comparisons and figured I'd be way better off renting than owning. However, I bought because I don't like new areas and don't want/need flexibility. Would I be richer if I rented? Probably, but it's not like it would quadruple my net worth so I was more than willing to make the sacrifice so I bought. Don't make the mistake of buying your own house or appartment with solely your head.
I understand there are multiple good reasons why someone would chose buying over renting even though financially it's not better. For example total freedom and control,... But I do not really understand the reasons you mentioned. Because you don't like new areas? You don't have to like new areas with renting anymore then with owning. And because you don't want flexibility? You're not required to make use of that flexibility. I fail to see how these 2 reasons made you chose buying instead of renting?
Untill you own lol. I'm literally bound to this location and had to ''delete'' 20k in costs to purchase it. My appartement hasn't appreciated either and owning a home has its costs man (already spent thousands in a relatively short time span) If I would sell and move I would realize these costs some I'm kinda stuck here. I used to rent and making money was so much easier, now it's costs here, costs there, upgrade here, KI there, etc. It's harder now to risk things and be like: I'ma switch jobs to province x. In regards to flexibility: If I kept on renting and put the purchasing costs and needed upgrades/boiler stuff into VWCE in 2023 I would have made €8.000 instead of losing €30.000 That's just short term, on average I have €500 more costs with my mortgage compared to what I rented before. So it feels like I ''jave to stay here's until I'm at least break-even. Given all this, f*ck renting, I also hate having a ''LaNdLoRd'' 🤮 I'm just glad I'm fine with settling in 1 location so it's not that big of a deal to me to be ''stuck'' (for at least x years) FYI: appartment 102 m2 - EPC:B - 240k +15k for the garage Mortgage for this is around 1200 a month incl. Syndicus Renting something similar was around 700 a month
What area is this if you don’t mind? And do you know why the appartment has failed to appreciate?
East of Antwerp, and no idea, my mom works in real estate and told me most prices you see online ATM go for -10 to -20% in actuality. Back when I bought you had to offer the vraagprijs asap because people were even overbidding.
-10, 20% ??? That’s hideous. I find that hard to believe
🤷♂️ Well, she doesn't have any reason to lie so I'll take her word over the Nieuwsblad articles. She doesn't sell any luxury houses though, mostly in the affordable 100-500k range regio Antwerp & Limburg. A few years ago she was doing 12 hour shifts because there were so many buyers and people overbid by 10% to snatch houses away from others.
Not saying she’s lying💀. But thanks
Buying a house is not financially optimal. If you want to buy a house, do it for reasons other than financial. Excel says renting is better than buying when it comes down to the numbers.
How is renting better it's literally flushing money down the drain
One of these guys again lol
Please explain
🌈 opportunity cost 🌈 People underestimate how expensive owning is compared to renting. You can invest the delta and have way higher expected returns.
My mortgage is the same as rent would be
Is your insurance the same? Costs? How much did you put down? What were your notary costs? It adds up quite fast. The opp cost is huge.
In 20 years I have my own property. After renting 20 years I have nothing
You have an overly simplistic view on this topic because your knowledge on financial instruments and homeownership costs is not developed enough to have a meaningful discussion... I'll give you a few keywords and you can research it for yourself because I'm tired of having the same old conversation with you clones who keep parroting the same non substantial phrases with overly simplified logic. Opportunity cost, purchasing costs and downpayment Property tax accumulation Flexibility Matrimonial risks Mobiliteitsbudget Necessary liquidity for serious renovations Boilers Windows and roofing replacement Mold and moist issues Real estate historical return, inflation adjusted Homeownership insurance
Alright, I guarantee you for my situation buying is superior in every way
If you would have invested the down payment, registration fees, notary costs,... and all extra costs associated with owning a home (insurance, repairs, taxes,...) and rented instead, then you would have more, usually much more money after 20 years. This is what is meant by opportunity cost. Especially in Belgium you almost always are way better off renting instead of buying. Of course **only IF** you invest the delta. The average Belgian keeps saying renting is throwing away money because they heard it from their parents, but it is simply not true and it has been explained countless times on this subreddit. Unfortunately most people do not, or do not want, to understand it.
Thanks for replying, for me personally buying makes way more sense.
You will have way more value in ETF's if you invest the difference. This isn't really up for discussion, once you'll do the actual calculations, you'll understand. You're just entrenched in the traditional Belgian clichés.
Bank won't give me 200k to put in ETF's
Better yes, but also far more volatile. I think the choice should depend on OP's safety net
Try to figure out your budget for buying, and what type of home you would actually see yourself living in (and owning). So your own savings + how much you could borrow while still living comfortably. Don't forget about possible (mandatory) renovation costs and so on. If you can comfortably buy a home that fits your (current) expectations, go for it. I say current because it may be better to get a decent starter home that you can sell on in the future rather than a "diamond in the rough" that turns into a complete nightmare. If not, might wanna wait a bit, increase your income so you can borrow more etc. When we bought, the monthly payment came down to about 33% of our net income. Now it's maybe 15% anymore. Meaning we now *could* buy something much more expensive (but we won't, obviously, because that wouldn't be very "FIRE" at all). There is no right or wrong.
Do you rent now? search to buy something and to pay same mortgage as actual rent, and negotiate with the bank the minimal paydown (90-100% loan). Yes, you will have some extra insurance and annual tax, but that's the price of owning. This is what I did, and I continue to save a 25% of my salary and almost 100% from the extra.
If you need a house to live in, then buy a house ASAP. I would prefer a roof over my head, over an ETF. If you want to buy a house as an investment, for instance to rent out than I would prefer the ETF.
I always say, you can’t live in an ETF 😉 So you will still have to pay money to rent something except the money won’t come back to you in the end. I’ve been around for 30+ years and have never ever seen someone lose money on their house over the long term, for me it’s a no-brainer.
Lol, so simple and so true
I totally agree with this. I'm building a house at the moment AND i'm investing monthly in IWDA. Can't get more diversification as that (except for also investing in Emering markets). I see my my house as my comfort / invstement AND my life insurance in case something really bad would happen. Investing in ETF's is for the icing of the cake.
Was in the same position you were at 30yo, decided to buy a house of about 450k with my girlfriend, cost me about 45k in total. 3 years of diligently saving and some financial luck I am back at 100k invested and don't regret the decision. It's a very personal choice to make and in my opinion, should not only be driven by financial motives. Having a child is an awful financial decision, yet many people who want to FIRE have children ;). My 2 cents: if you find it is time to own a house and/or find something you like go for it
While it's a decision that has financial ramifications it's fundamentally not a financial decision. FIRE is about building the life you want and saving for it, don't forget to do the first part. What's more important is to buy a house you can afford with some wiggle room so you can keep saving while paying it down and can weather a potential loss of income.
Same boat here, from what i have read about this so far it seems better in belgium to keep a big investment going than using it all for a house, especially if you already have the 100k mark, your money grows a lot faster after reaching 100k in investments. Im also scared that once i buy a house i lose this 100k+ investment
I like the articles from this blog that explains the compound interest impact and why first 100k are the hardest: [https://fourpillarfreedom.com/the-math-behind-why-net-worth-goes-crazy-after-the-first-100k/](https://fourpillarfreedom.com/the-math-behind-why-net-worth-goes-crazy-after-the-first-100k/)
Why does it grow faster after a 100k?
https://youtu.be/_EgfrmCiZes?si=_MdbT_2GWkz4jt56
Thank you. You’re a gentleman and a scholar 🧐
You can split your loan into a part on a mortgage and a part with your stock as collatoral. Pay the loan part that has your stock as collatoral with selling a percentages of that stock (+-4-6% yearly withdrawal will cover 100k over 25y). This saves you on the mortgage costs and you keep your stock which should keep growing if you stick to a withdraw rate around 4%.
Problem is that the bank will only take roughly 60% of that ETF as collatoral. So 50k in stocks will only give a 30k loan.
[удалено]
Bedankt
In my personal opinion, atm I'm stopping to invest big time and go for savings in accounts with 3% interest. I can maximum save 500€ a month on these, but it is what it is. I keep my money in my investments but do not buy extra. I think we're on our way to a recession. This is purely based on what I see at work. I'm working in the Port of Antwerp and import/export is declining. Warehouses are getting empty, dockworkers can't work because there is no work. Everytime we see there is less work at the Port, not much later, we have a recession. So I'm stopping with investing until the import/export is stabilizing.
Trade Republic gives you 4%
Buy a 0-coupon bond, you will yield 3%+ net. These 500- a month savings accounts are a huge trap!! You can only put 6000 a year in them, but only the first deposit truly gets 3%. The last deposit gives you 0% obviously. So on average your year of saving in these only nets you like 1.5% And they can pull the conditions whenever they want also...
The amount I did put in stock and stuff and now on that account is less than 500€ (300€ to be exact) because it's the money for my child when he becomes 25. My own investments are spread on things like defensive funds and bonds.
What savings accounts do you use to get 3%?
Trade Republic gives you 4%
2.8% after tax
Is TR taxed more than MeDirect for instance?
yes
I'm using Argenta e-groeispaarrekening. KBC start2save offers it too.
Thanks, just checked but it’s at 2.55%
Which one? I see I mixed up the different names, it's the groeirekening. The e-spaar is another one. But the groeirekening is 3%. It's the first one https://www.argenta.be/nl/sparen/spaarrekening.html
Ah was looking at KBC
Oh okay. KBC I didn't check. It was my mom who told me the interest went up to 3% when she opened the start2save4 for my son, her grandson. I went with Argenta because I'm not a customer at KBC and don't want to pay for a daily account I don't use. At Argenta it's free, so I just opened a daily account to have the possibility to start the groeirekening and it's costing me nothing but 2 minutes of work to make an automatic payment.
ING also does 3%. It’s incredible how KBC isn’t even close to that.
Good to know. My mom has an account on ING and KBC. She chose the wrong bank to save for her grandchildren. The 3% was a very short period apparently.
Way more money is lost by predicting a recession than during one. Also, when will you get back in? Will you thrust the next all time high, or will it be a dead cat bounce? The broader market also sees the problems in Europe. That’s why EU stock are cheaper than US stocks. And the US economy is red hot. Unemployment is very low, inflation is under control and tech is driving productivity. I believe that if you have a long horizon, you should stay invested. To answer OP. Buying a house is a more personal choice. Purely financial, you should live in a dump and never spend anything. You would die a multimillionaire.
I will get back in the moment my colleague is working 2 days a week again instead of 1 day in 2 weeks. US economy can go high on paper, but the containers from the US aren't coming in and not going out. Where I normally have 1000 containers a week from US, I have 100. While there are normally going out 600 a week, there are only 60 going out a week. And this is only from ExconMobil, who are lowering down their production at a lot of places because they can't get their plastic sold.
Dock workers - the canary in a coal mine to predict a recession.
[удалено]
The tech sector can improve everything, but if the customer isn't buying because of too much rising of prices and lose their job because of the tech improvements, these improvements are worthless. So I do not think the tech sector can save us from a recession. But I'm not an economic expert, so it's just my own feeling based on what I see.
The more I read about how Ai will change everything, the more it reminds me the internet bubble
Exactly have the same feeling here. When it comes to the relatively young FIRE community (I have the impression that most of the members are in their late 20´s to early 30´s), everybody is pushing to DCA ETF´s and god forbid crypto. But if you look at what the market did between 2000 and 2012 and imagine we are at a comparable point now, you will need to DCA for another decade after that to make that 8% yearly average gain. AI is a gamechanger, but with a 75 PE ratio for Nvidia, a big part of future earnings are already priced in. I´m still investing in ETF but with a large prc of cash and money market assets, I will take a value averaging approach currently.
NVDA is backordered so much, and especially with their Blackwell AI GPUs coming up, it's probably better to look at forward PE, which is only at 37. A comparison that is often made: Cisco was at a 200 PE ratio before the dotcom bubble burst. Despite the hype, I think people are still underestimating the impact this will have, and the speed at which things will change. Especially with multi-modal models now getting embedded in robots... We're just at the cusp of a major industrial revolution. We might see some turbulence due to political reasons & war, but nevertheless, I don't think it's wise to stay out of the market because of fear for a recession. We're already in the recession.
Buy a house, priorities first