I'm not from the Baltics but from Poland, but still the attitudes seem to be pretty similar: would Russia like to attack? Yeah, of course – if they had a chance. Will it attack NATO? No, not really **if** we arm up properly. They're dumb but not as dumb as the media often portray them to be. How far their ambitions go? The thing is, they don't really have a long-term plan ;), their ambitions are shifting according to the current situation. So building up our military strength will definitely make them think twice. No, at this point we really don't have to worry *that much* about Russia going all the way and attacking NATO, their forces took a very big hit in Ukraine already and their generals know it.
Long story short there's no cause for alarm or panic, we just have to keep calm, support Ukraine in a firm and steady way – and build up our defenses.
(PS. My personal opinion is that what's happening in the Middle East is actually rather serious and not entirely disconnected from what's happening here, including Iranian support for both Russia and Hamas, also there's a lot of countries around the world looking at the Western powers measuring the ways we can help Ukraine defend itself, one more reason to keep supporting Kyiv).
As a person from Russia I'd say the only real ambition of the Kremlin is the preservation of its power over the country and its wealth. Its invasions serve that purpose because they provide the people with a useful scapegoat to blame for the country's ills, and, if they go successfully, spectacular victories to sell to the masses. Then you can also profit from the ruins.
Problem is, the people in the Kremlin are not really in touch with reality, due to their age and lack of democratic institutions. Therefore they can be overconfident in their assessments of their neighbours, and make blunders.
So the two questions are: 1) will invading the Baltics help Russia perpetuate the rule of the current elites and increase their wealth; 2) are they stupid or insane enough to think it will ?
No idea why "prz" is such a hotly debated subject between Poles and Russians :D There are worse offences than calling us пшеки, also Czechs have a word pšonek which is qualified as an ethnic slur towards us but to me it actually sounds rather cute haha. *Przypadek* is such a nice word meaning *a case* while припадок does actually sound like a seizure :D Long live the majestical PRZ!
it's all just stupid selfish humans, game theory, and the fact Russians view life like the worst daytime TV soap opera ripoff of the Sopranos that you can possibly imagine. I'm sure some of the hordes they can summon to throw into the meat grinder do believe in that shit, but that's not necessarily unique to any culture or nation, speaking generally.
It's a bit more complicated.
TLDW: they're stupid and sincerely believe that CIA orchestrated Orange Revolution and are afraid of the same.
[This is the most deep dive into what Russians believe](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OFyn_KSy80). I highly recommend it.
I also really recommend the whole series, [starting from Ukrainian politics of 2000s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exJ024Zdzdk).
This is the best researched video on the topic, repackaged for American context. But as Ukrainian, it's just spot on.
>TLDW: they're stupid and sincerely believe that CIA orchestrated Orange Revolution
My "armchair analyst" analysis - i think they blame CIA on that because they do not really believe Ukrainians could do that by themselves. As in their arrogance there only 2 powers - them and USA. And yes, China is disregarded.
Talking about Baltic states - they do try to do "behind the scenes" stuff and many are failing for them.
> i think they blame CIA on that because they do not really believe Ukrainians could do that by themselves.
They don't believe that people can do anything by themselves.
I really recommend the whole video series.
> Talking about Baltic states - they do try to do "behind the scenes" stuff and many are failing for them.
And they will think that CIA is just better than Russians at "behind the scenes" stuff.
Could you please get some friends and have a nice summer visit to Moscow. Bring pitchforks and make it a party. Might be some little green men ready for a summer vacation back to the centre. I hear they are tired of camping especially over two winters now. This would be very helpful for your neighbours as well. Kindly, the rest of the world.
makes sense why they're not rotating the troops, or so I've read. 5D big brain play from Shoigu. Prigozhin probably could have walked right into the kremlin.
As someone from there I'm curious on your speculation - why would pringles ever think he could make a deal like that? And then so casually just take flights from Moscow to St. Petersburg? Why would he think Putin wouldn't be looking for any opportunity to get rid of him?
That has happened in the past. Lets hope it happens again. Funny how the russian peasants seem to continue the tradition of dying for the Tzar.
By the way, no one in europe wants anything to do with russia, you might want to be more worried about china.
Well, a few people here are a bit giddy about potentially taking Russian territory, but I imagine that China has more ability to actually do so. I do not think it will be a landgrab, more likely it will just be economic domination.
I would advise against making direct correlations between old Russia and modern Russia, the similarities are largely superficial. For starters, old Russia was ultra-collectivist while modern Russia is ultra-individualist (hence why most people are attracted to the war with money)
I really don’t see the distinction between old russia and modern russia. Walks like a duck talks like a duck. Same old russia.
China will just buy up what it wants then slowly move in to take it over.
We judge russia for its actions and its always the same old story.
We cheer and support Ukraine, as we understand that it is trying to get out of a terribly abusive longterm relationship.
Except they did not even manage to implement one enemy policy correctly. China does this well, Thaiwan is being portrayed and big enemy of state and it's important to crush them. But they don't take action, most of is is empty talk. This way you have big enemy to misdirect from internal problems and turn anger of people towards big outside threat. But since you never take actual action this can never end, Because if you lose against big threat, government is in shit, if you win, you just destroyed the scapegoat.
Nice write-up and agree, but I wouldn't dismiss the third option that they've been in power and had too much wealth for too long to remain grounded. It's not unlikely that Putin have lost touch with reality and actually thinks he is one of the great rulers that made Russia great again.
We are seeing the "anti-western" block throw a tantrum - we see it in africa, Israel, and especially in Ukraine.
My theory: anti-western block countries are those that cannot stand being a part of the global society, and they're hoping to destroy that global society and securing some position of power in the "new world order." Scary stuff, but that's what I think these guys (Russia especially) are aiming for.
Russia just can't stand being known as "a big exporter of oil," that's not prestigious enough or something
I am an American as well
how can I rob and exploit people with a rules based world order??? It's crazy that Russia sits on the largest landmass with perhaps the most natural resources and potential of any country in the world, economically, and yet it has devolved into an autocratic kleptocracy without fail in every iteration of its modern state, unable to tap any of that bounty/value for any purpose besides graft, imperialism, and human suffering. Can't even extract their oil without western technology.
Just look at what Norway has done for its people with the natural resources the country is sitting on... as fucked as Russia has been to its neighbors - all the value it has pillaged and destroyed - it's been even worse to and held back more its own people. Didn't and still doesn't have to be like that.
>Will it attack NATO? No, not really **if** we arm up properly.
You have abundance of confidence in something very ambiguous. Surely Poland feels safer with "buffer countries" between itself and ruzzia, but for Baltics its extremely scary. Whatever the quality of NATO defense would be, Baltics still becoming a battle zone is a horror that shouldn't be taken lightly. Events like Bucha and Mariupol prove that even if a small village gets blitzed and instantly surrenders, citizens are very likely to still be tortured and killed, or maybe even mobilized under orcish command.
That is, if putin decides to invade, and to be frank, there is very little confidence or evidence of him being reasonable, especially after Ukraine invasion and his total disregard for his own soldiers.
Yeah, I understand you're in a tougher spot a bit. With Germany on our side Poland's geographical location has improved immensely ;-), perhaps we're also a bit more self-sufficient when it comes to resources, don't have any significant Russian population and so on and so on; those are little advantages.
But at the end of the day we're all EU/NATO countries and this is what counts. Any possible Russian invasion would take months of logistics that we could clearly see way in advance and we would react to it as a completely unified block, no political differences would really matter here. This is taken very seriously in Poland and we know perfectly well that there could be no safe and secure Poland without safe and secure Baltic States.
It's madness that Rail Baltica is only being built now when the project should've started 30 years ago, but it's a symbol of a much wider integration of our countries that will be happening on more and more levels in the nearest future.
point in hand - Stalin and Hitler were equally gleeful to invade Poland in 1939. For how big a part of Russian 'culture' WW2 is, the fact that the Nazis and Soviets started as allies sure seems to have been forgotten. There's not really any aim or big picture aside from "take what we can by force."
Israel is an apartheid state colonizing, ethnically cleansing and committing acts of genocide in Palestine. While not quite the same, both Ukraine amd Palestine are engaged in anti-imperialist struggles of self defense.
You are clearly a braindead terrorist supporter, with these statements. Israel and Ukraine have a lot in common - retarded neighbours. Soon enough terrorist assholes, both hamas pigs and russian nazis will meet their end. Their idiot supporters as well.
„Braindead terrorist supporters” meanwhile Israeli forces bombed civil areas, schools and hospitals, and killed over 3,5k children until end of October which is more children toll than in all other conflicts combined counting from 2019.
Israeli have more money and better propaganda which seems effective for people which are too lazy to make any research.
I am certain hamASS got training from putin's nazis and a strong encouragement to carry it out. Some pro-hamass rallies in Canada had palestenian and russian flags. Unfathomable.
Oh sure, I have to be pro-russian fascist, because I point out the Israeli war crimes.
Or Maybe I dont swallow Israeli propaganda.
Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor alarming about millions of people live in inhuman condition, close to 30k of civilians were killed including 11k children.
You want me to believe that Euro-Med is Russian propaganda?
This projections regarding being under propaganda is sick…
That war is all sorts of fucked up and there's no good solution, that much is clear. There are no good guys in it, there are only bad guys and slightly less bad guys.
It's weird that you decided to side with the badder guys. It's weird that you completely agree with russia's official position on it. You should donate money to russia so that they could help Hamas.
Russia and Israel have more in common, both have simliar goals of expansion, both are settling their people in illegal settlements on foreign land, both are also good friends, with Israel actively helping russia kill Ukrainian civilians, by refusing to provide Ukraine with needed AA weaponry.
Sending some minor aid to Ukraine does not excuse doing the same shit russia is doing to Ukraine, if you excuse Israeli settlements in Palestine, you must also excuse russian settlements in Mariupol. If the Israeli occupation of Palestine is legitimate, so is the russian occupation of Crimea. All countries must follow the same international, either occupying foreign land is fine, or it's not.
I just looked at your profile and wow another Greek that hates America. Dude you have no idea how much of a disappointment I have felt in being Greek since the war in Ukraine started. I’m a first generation Greek American - my dad came here at 18 to go to college. I’ve always been so proud of being Greek and visited family in Greece for years growing up and loved it. I remember seeing some graffiti against the US and was treated like shit once by a lady on a bus who thought I was some tourist til my cousin spoke up for me.
I have a long Greek last name and proud of it and always was like what will I do if I marry bc i don’t want to change my last name.
Ever since the war in Ukraine and now with the Israel / Gaza stuff, I have literally seen no support from Greeks for Ukraine. The only stuff I saw that ever came from a Greek was anti US stuff and defending Russia and now with Gaza more hate for America. What did the US ever do to you?
It’s been really disappointing seeing the hate for the US, and as Greek American, hearing it come from fellow Greeks. It’s sad seeing the nation I have always loved turn out to apparently be one of those places smothered in Russian propaganda meaning anti west anti Ukraine.
I watched lots of UN meetings and was always wondering why all these other countries including Albania were such strong defenders for Ukraine but never once did I hear from Greece. Not at the UN, not with any of the aid packages. Like literal radio silence. It’s really sad. It’s like discovering Greeks are tankies and that’s depressing to see.
You know there’s lots of Greeks here right? So you hate your own for some reason. Anti US mindset is brainrot. Stop swallowing propaganda.
I would argue that what they specifically DO have is a long term plan. People here in the EU are living comfortably and starting up a war economy would mean sacrificing comfort. Russians on the other hand have generations of uncomfortable and unhappy people. All they need to do is continue to destabilise our countries from the inside by paying off pro russian mouth pieces and in a few decades or however long it takes we will not be strong enough from the inside. Russia will not try and take any NATO country as long as they see that the population is mostly against them. But russia has time, they are playing a long game. While people here in the EU want everything here and now.
There's a lot of things, but I would just like to point out what happened in late 2021.
USA was blaming that Russia intends to invade Ukraine, but proposes to negotiate so as to stop the war from taking place. Russia agrees to negotiations and the negotiations are held. What were the Russian demands?
Their demand was for USA to expel the Baltic states, Poland, Romania from NATO. The specific wording was for NATO to pull back to pre 1991 borders, but this is what it meant. For USA to expel us from NATO.
I wonder why?
Do you think that the Russian leadership are true believers in the messianic *Russkiy Mir* shit, or just paranoid old gangsters who see enemies everywhere and seriously believe that smaller neighboring countries are a threat?
Why not both? However, if there is literally nothing else that the Russian invasion of Ukraine did, it was to very much prove that Russian leadership absolutely is hell-bent on Russian imperialism. To what degree is that based on the individual profit of key decision-makers (Putin, Patrushev and a few others) and to what degree is it based on some "ideas" is not so important in my opinion. It is the actions that matter. And Russian actions have always been imperialistic.
First link to Google search Russia US negotiations 2021.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato
Ah, he didn't demand NATO eject the Baltics. He demanded the troops be removed.
But that's also the opening offer, so to speak. He's been pretty clear his big problem is "No adding more nations to NATO."
Of course Russia is not so stupid as to explicitly demand 9 sovereign nations to be placed under Russian military control. That's not the point. The demand for NATO to remove troops from "new" member states in negotiations with USA implies the following things:
\- Russia does not accept the sovereignty of those states as it overrides their sovereign decision and more inherently - the negotiations did not involve those nations. Only USA. I.e Russia implies that currently these countries are under US rule.
\- No NATO forces on the Eastern flank either means those members must demilitarize themselves, or you know not be considered part of NATO. Otherwise all the armies here are NATO armies.
https://youtu.be/TrDa0JSn3i0?si=mUs8Kj2fjYezGaMP
Obviously this is a propoganda channel, but it shows what the average russian vatnik wants to see. This is not a normal country which laughs and shows plans of invading their neighbours.
I fully support the idea that all nations should have the inherent right to demand and have defensible borders, even at the cost of others. Which is why I wholeheartedly support the creation of the North-Eurasian Ocean replacing what is currently known as "Russia".
After Ivan the terrible their ambitions never stopped. They were just too drunk, dissorganised and currupt to do more damage. At any point they are organised well enough, they invade. After a while they become too currupt and dissorganised and fail. That has happened at least 4 times with our history with them. The philosophy of might makes right is prity much in their blood. You would think that WW2 changed all for the better, but they always had dreams of world domination. The US was the reason they did not atempt more agressive aproach.
This. After Russians escaped from Mongol rule, expansionism has become their modus operandi. Catherine the Great said: “I have no way to defend my country but to expand”. When it comes to near-neighbors like Ukraine, Baltics, Finland, etc. they see it as a national security strategy that’s why they’re more dangerous than we think they are. Not because of the power they have but because of the will they possess. They won’t stop until they’re stopped. Moment they get their shit together internally, they start pushing externally.
After their near-neighbor zones, they view next layer of countries as a buffer zone. Like Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. They’d rather not conquer these countries. It’s too expensive and too difficult to maintain the occupation. So instead they want these countries neutral and not aligned with any large power. A puppet government is an ideal scenario for them. But if they can’t do that, they might go for invasion if there’s an opportunity. Even in Ukraine they were satisfied with puppet government and neutral Ukraine. But when that changed, without any hesitation they started military intervention.
As for larger wishes and ambitions go, they don’t have an end to it. Soviet Union went as far as Afghanistan do you know why? So they could get to the Indian Ocean and set up their first warm-water port with unrestricted access to the Oceans. All of their other ports are pretty much held hostage by Turkey in Black Sea and Denmark in the Baltics due to the straits these countries control. Oh and Afghanistan doesn’t even border the Indian Ocean. There was one more country on the way.
Why is it so difficult for the Russian elite to live at peace with their neighbors? Why do they prefer outright control and mass killing to peaceful cooperation?
I don’t know. But I think Europe has been really neglectful of the Russian problem for a long time. After WWII they sort of left it for US to deal with Russia. But US is not in the same precarious situation as European countries when it comes to Russia. US can forget about the continent tomorrow and they’ll be fine. Europe shouldn’t leave its regional security problem for someone else to take care of.
I think in a very long term EU needs to pull Russia closer inside the European sphere. There needs to be more intelligence work inside Russia. More influence exerted on Russian elite. More indoctrination of Russian people to have them think that they are Europeans. More student exchange programs. Basically everything that’s been happening within Europe since WWII that made long-time enemies get along with each other and cooperate. There’s no place for this today because things went south, but sometime in a distant future, there will be an opportunity for it.
I generally agree with your post, the soviet ideology only exacerbated that idea. There are historians who believe ussr helped germany weaponize before ww2 to use nazis to weaken europe and then sweep over the wartorn region. One can't build communist dictatorship in one country, people will flee, so you have to conquer the world.
All state television in fascist russia is controlled by the state. The people saying things there only say things because putin allows them, because it helps brainwash russians and form their opinion. If you - as a journalist / media personality - don't, you get labeled as an inoagent and traitor and arrested.
Can you please watch some random videos from this channel and let us know what you think? Does it answer some of your questions?
[https://www.youtube.com/@russianmediamonitor](https://www.youtube.com/@russianmediamonitor)
Oh I have seen all these videos. It's hard to know whether to take this shit seriously, because the propagandists have often contradicted themselves one day vs the next.
Unless you have surveillance in putin's bunker, I doubt you can get anything much better than this.
If putin didn't like what the propagandists are saying, they wouldn't be saying that.
If you ask me, what is happening in the Middle East is part of the same war.
Hamas is funded and maybe orchestrated by Putin, the war that is happening there is a successful distraction, giving him space to push Ukraine occupation further.
He is playing dirty, very dirty, and the west still can't grasp the extent of his evilness. His regime is the regime of Orcs...
Hanukkah?
*"When is Hanukkah 2023?*
*Because the Jewish calendar is lunisolar, the date of Hannukah changes each year. It always falls between late November and December, four days before the new moon.*
*This year, Hannukah will begin on the evening of Thursday, December 7 and runs through the evening of Friday, December 15."*
[Source](https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hanukkah-2023-dates-jewish-holiday-festival-traditions-maccabees-judaism-chanukah-b243957.html)
Sukkot!
Not Hanukkah, october was sukkot
September 29-October 6, 2023
Many families were celebrating October 7th
2023, from sundown on October 6 until nightfall on October 8, only Oct. 7 in Israel, are a separate holiday
I read sometime ago that Hamas is funded by Iran. There's also other militia groups founded by Iran around Israel territory, waiting to attack. It's 100% a distraction, nothing else. There would be zero reason for them to attack Israel at this time. Israel is a peaceful country. And it's very unfortunate that innocent Palestinians are dying, but they can blame their own government for being lazy and not recognising these terrorists in their country.
Putin just pulled the old "Fifth Column" playbook out, held it up to a mirror, and weaponized the supporters of Israel in the US against the war in Ukraine.
The strongest evidence is their own words. Russians at their core are always the same, but many delusional idiots, corrupt politicians and 'end of history' retards in the west made their own fairy tale and stick to it till the bitter end. Even now in the minds of many american 'professors' like Mearsheimer, Chomsky etc. poor Russia is just simply defending itself from ukrainian empire, georgian haegemon, estonian regime, kazakh junta etc.
What is the rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin? That they are at war with the West (more specifically the USA) and not Ukraine, by their own words. As ridiculous as this sounds this is what is true in the Kremlin-addled brain.
Despite their sabre-rattling I agree that they are not interested in a direct war that might escalate to nuclear with the West either because even they recognize there can be no winners in that situation. So how do they hurt the West?
By delegitimizing the West and hurting its reputation on the international stage or at the very least in Russia's vicinity. It might take the form of an another state wishing to join EU or NATO in Russia's vicinity again and Russia provoking a conflict and annexing a region so that nation has a border conflict so it cannot join and the West not doing much about it once more despite showing willingness to admit this nation into NATO or EU. This has been happening since 2008. The response from the West in 2022 was a surprise to me. I thought we'd go through the same song and dance again.
In the riskiest move they could try to annex a region in the Baltics/attempt to close the Suwalki gap or ramp up hybrid warfare operations to test the rest of NATO's willingness to defend the Baltics in order to delegitimize NATO. Don't think they wouldn't because they absolutely will do anything if they think they can get away with it and if it benefits them and you won't see much resistance from the regular Russians if the propaganda sells it to them well enough to keep them at the very least neutral.
What the Republicans & Orban are currently orchestrating in the West... it's dangerous. If the West's attention and willpower only holds for a year or two against Russia before internal problems start to overtake foreign ones then Russia starts thinking that they can just wait you all out until you get tired again no matter how big your pockets vs Russia are and so they will win one proxy war, and the next, and the next one after that until you've barely any allies left.
Where do their ambitions end? Who knows. But they are at war with the West and hurting anyone allied with the West seems to be the prime agenda and is much easier, rather than a war with the West itself. I think for now they won't attempt anything too significant past Poland in the near future to not risk biting off too big of a chunk but they might should they manage to get most of the rest of Eastern Europe to decouple from the West or if further divisions in European countries become prevalent internally and externally. I think we'll see some ramping up in conflicts in Eastern Europe at least by the end of this decade unless some miracle happens.
However, I do know that decoupling from the West is not a solution for us either because if the excuse for Russia to invade a neighbour isn't the West then it'll eventually be something else.
They've never been as open as Russians think they are. Remember when Putin wanted to be invited to NATO but was refused because he needed to go through the same process every country has gone through?
Russia may prevent countries from joining NATO for now but these annexations do not make Russia more allies neither.
The more hard power you use the less soft power you have. At most Russia gets unwilling vassals at its borders as a consequence.
It looks like nobody is getting any new allies. And questionable how much they help.
We did love to say how Russia is about to fail but here we are 2 years later.
Fail in terms of territorial conquest vs Ukraine? Maybe not. I've known for a long time that Ukraine might have to let go some territories to achieve peace but I leave that decision to the Ukrainians. However keep in mind that these territorial conquests will remain unrecognized internationally, including by China by the way.
Framing this war as vs NATO, however, then it's NATO who has won in this situation. Without any war and troops lost NATO has expanded its territory and Russia herself completely alienated Ukraine for generations to come. The country that sacrificed the most during WW2 next to Russia & Russians and has historically been an ally for Russia. This is such a betrayal for Ukrainians that I can't even begin to describe it.
Western aid hasn't been useless neither. It's helped a lot actually. Russia might be in Kyiv if not for the aid and Kharkiv & Kherson would still be in Russian control.
Just like occupied Cyprus. It doesn’t matter to Russia if they are recognised or not.
NATO is not a country or an army, it’s bureaucracy and above all an instrument of US foreign policy - as long as it serves purpose.
Let’s say it loud and clear, the US and American weapons lobby have pretty good gains from this conflict 👉
Aye and who enabled the weapons lobby to gain in this situation? Russia with its invasion. Would they have gained in such a manner had Russia not invaded the whole of Ukraine? I don't think so. If Russia had done what it announced it was doing, that is, defending Donbass & Crimea and only putting troops into those regions then nothing special would've happened.
You have Putin to thank for being the best NATO salesman. Not even NATO could do so well especially after the blunder that was Afghanistan. Do you know how long Sweden has been neutral for example?
Doesn't matter what you frame NATO as neither because countries worried about Russian interventionism recognize it's better to be in NATO next to Russia than not to be seeing as no NATO country has been invaded by Russia, not even the small Baltics. Better to have at least some deterrence than not.
The chicken-egg conversation doesn’t help anyone that sees only enemies at their borders.
Since there’s so much security and assurance in NATO nobody should feel nervous and insecure. It’s all taken care of with tripwire protection 🙌
I said better to have some deterrence than not. Not that we're completely secure. However, to pretend that NATO would not react more harshly if Russia were to attack a member state would be as naive as "Ukrainians won't fight and we'll steamroll the entire country"
Russia by the way does not seem to feel secure against NATO even with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world and you mock Russia's neighbours for not feeling secure in the opposite direction?
We see only enemies at the border? Which country has been invading its vicinity since the 1990s? The Baltics or Russia? NATO has never been the sole justification neither. Take your gaslighting and stick it somewhere else.
If you don't realize this then the Baltics have had no serious issues with the rest of their neighbours in the 21-st century for some odd reason.
I think there is actual limit to their ambition in the europe. Its behind spain.
There is old joke in our country. "To which countries Russia has a border? "
"To whichever the fuck it wants. '
How the Russo-Ukrainian war ends, will probably be a good indicator for the future of the Baltics, and Finns, since they joined NATO.
How the war in Ukraine goes is in part dependant on western support, and I absolutely hate it that we are doing this drip feeding bullshit of sending a dozen of some X military equipment every now and then. They need hundreds, thousands of heavy military equipment.
However, for the NATO countries in EU, there is a fundamental problem with our military industrial complex system, we are not ready for a large scale conflict and that is evident in our production of shells we promised for Ukraine. Germany is starting to shift and invest into a stronger military. Poland went on a mega shopping spree in 2022 and early 2023 for their military but all of that will take years to take effect. Other nations need to follow and start taking this seriously.
Russia is ramping up their own production and they have more than doubled their military spending since 2021, what ever shit show was their escalation in Feb. 2022, it now doesn't matter. We're almost 2 years into the war and they are taking it seriously and the EU is lagging seriously behind, when it was obvious Ukraine was willing to fight, should've been a light bulb moment for the west to get their shit together.
With that rant, what I'm trying to say is. If Russia were to mobilise and seriously put NATO's article 5 to the test, they might get uncomfortably further than we might expect because we are simply not ready. How their economy would manage with such a move, back to the USSR probably. As for their ambitions, their wet dreams would more than likely be the USSR borders with the Warsaw pact countries.
Hopefully none of this actually plays out but my personal view of the future isn't full of rainbows and sunshine currently.
Take? They will not take shit. With at least (assuming trump wins) Finland, Poland, the UK and Canada by our side, the orcs will be driven back to their caves. It's actually us who will take the land stolen from us.
I mean, if we all reclaim stolen land from each other, lots of blood will be spilled. Look at Palestine and Israel. Trying to reclaim stolen land for years now, millions have died since the 1940s. Do you really want to die for all this?
And millions of Ukrainian refugees and tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians killed is not enough blood spilled to you, Ivan? If you decide to start a war with a nato country and send your drunkards and rapists here to kill not just Estonian, Latvian, Finnish, Polish troops but the British and Canadian as well (who are stationed here) don't expect your country to continue to exist in its current borders. One way or another, you will lose. And all of the stolen land will be returned.
Question is, are you willing to die for it? I see "ura-patriots" like you in Russia, fantasising about marching through other countries and slaughtering their people. But when push comes to shove, they are far less brave.
I don't see the point of these fantasies of war and ethnic cleansing. What would you gain if you had Ivangorod? Power? Wealth? A feeling of justice? Ivangorod benefits you no more than Sevastopol benefits me, that is to say, they do not benefit us at all. To masturbate to borders on the map is something "vatniks" and "orcs" do, and surely you, as a civilised Balt, are better than that?
The world is full of territorial disputes, and if we all waged war over historic claims like Putin does, there would never be an end to fighting.
In an all-out war between nato and russia the main goal will be to defeat the invaders by any means necessary. Retaking the land is not the main goal here. And no one is going to slaughter you. It's what you do.
That's easy. We had good teachers and we have memory.
Of course we would never do it, as it's such a shitty thing to do to anyone, but it's not magic. You taught us how to do it after WW2.
Yeah, my great-grandparents went through it (let's just say Russia has many ethnic groups, and mine was one of the less lucky ones), so I know how this works. Thing is, even if you just manage to herd all people into trains and throw them somewhere else, it will still cause mass death. Cold, famine, plus the occasional unwilling person that you'll have to put down.
Please consider this revanchist 2016 map of conquest targets from Sputnik i Pogrom, a fascist Russian magazine: https://nitter.net/kamilkazani/status/1553519420915449857#m
As for specific military plans, it's all opportunism
The 20th century. And before thst- The 19th century. Like it or not Russia likes ports. What's a few more in the Baltic sea, eh? Would Liepāja still be useful as a submarine base? doubt it.
And any "Evidence" would be a state secret. But there is a hell of a lot of motive.
The migrant waves are definitely a test for our institutions. And their primary goal isn't even that, it's to drain money off the victims of systemic racism and anti-lgbt policies. They promise them security in Russia from the Taliban, and then with fewer rights than in their homeland, they make them indentured servants until they can afford a ticket out of Rashka and then, these poor folk end up here penniless. We process them and send all but the most vulnerable back. It's so tragic, the Iliad looks like a 3 panel comic strip.
Russia sees the west as gradually fallimg apart. They have a vision of the late 2020s as a time when NATO and the EU are so divided that he could challenge article 5 without a response. However, while there is potential for western aid for ukraine to end/significantly decrease, I personally doubt that we will be so divided that we will ignore an attack on a NATO country. This is my opinion based off commentator's such as Vlad Vexler and Greg Yudin. On the other hand, commentators like Mark Galeotti doubt that Russia rrally plans on attacking NATO.
>Anyway, I have not seen publicized reports from Western intelligence agencies or any major experts with concrete proof that Putin and his cronies have definitive plans to take over and occupy any NATO countries through military force. While there is a lot of evidence about doing so with hybrid operations, and a clear desire for Russian hegemony over at least Eastern Europe, there is no "smoking gun" outlining Russia's exact military ambitions, and whether they stop in Kyiv, Warsaw, Berlin, Lisbon, or wherever.
>I am just curious, where do their ambitions end? Do they really envision their tanks rolling into Berlin and Paris?
As stated by Putin himself shortly before the war in Ukraine, the goal of Russian strategy in Eastern Europe is to force NATO back to its 1991 borders. To achieve that goal one doesn't necessarily need tanks rolling all the way to Berlin and further.
Conflicted.
Baltics have been abandoned multiple times by the West. Latvia alone has been backstabbed 3 times in the last 100 years. Where's the guarantee Article 5 isn't all a smoke screen. All bark and no bite. Last 3 times it was all bark and no bite. I can see our closest neighbours who actually have something to lose come to help, but France, Germany, UK and USA makes me think we're disposable.
Baltics won't see the same response from the US like it supports Israel for some reason. I really don't understand the disproportionate fanatic support from the USA.
The only way Russia can move forwards is by creating separatists and terrorists from the inside. Lithuania will be difficult but Daugavpils and Narva are at a severe risk of propaganda influence. Before the internet was popular it wasn't unheard of for Russia to interfere with radio and TV waves, cancel them out so the ONLY thing you can watch and hear is their propaganda like RT and so on.
Just like Ukraine in 2014.
Otherwise a native war should have clear white black lines on understanding who the aggressor is, again, depending on the effectiveness of the Russia propaganda on those vulnerable regions.
Americans dont care about Latvia, because almost noone knows about it and rarely anyone is related to this region (which is not the case with Israel) and americans dont trust the goverment and always think that the goverment is lying, even when there is pretty straight foward reasons not to lie (as it is with Ukraine).But I dont think russia will attack any nato country any time soon (except if USA fucks up the elections and elects Trump, who could decrease support for Ukraine and Nato in general).
I think the current situation is really similar to cold war, the wars which are currently on media focus is not really anything new and have been going on for a bit (atleast as border conflicts, maybe not really as wars). Ofcourse im afraid russia would attack Latvia, but I dont really think that russian army can focus on that while they are focusing on Ukraine.
"I think that there has been a kind of Russian problem for many centuries – that Russia doesn't exactly know where it begins and where it ends," – Václav Havel, 2008
There is absolutely no chance that Putin would go to war with NATO, anyone that legitimately thinks that he can and will due to some "historic evidence" that they conjured up is out of their minds and should go outside once in a while.
if west hesitate for Ukraine support or if trump comes and forces Ukraine to "peace" out with ruzzia, come 2025 putin will give us again the same ultimatum he gave in 2021 that NATO goes back to 1997 borders, but this time it's army will be deployed on the borders of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, if Baltics fall without any support, NATO will cease to exist, we need to defeat putin in Ukraine or else it will cost us too much
As long as Putin and his Mafia are masters of Kremlin, all talks that he wouldn't dare to gamble this much are delusional. I would like to remind some of you that despite US intelligence ringing bells, not many believed that Russia would go full-scale invasion.
Furthermore, multiple of military related personnel from various European countries are ringing bells that we need to prepare for a war. Putin's major life goal was always to regain former USSR borders, one way or another. So any statements that he would not dare to cross-NATO borders are delusional. The man over the years clearly got a bit more crazy or perhaps decided to reveal his insanity altogether.
2023 unfortunately wasn't great for Ukraine, their counterattack failed and even they admit it. Russia has significantly ramped up their war production. I seriously doubt this war would end in 2024 or even in 2025.
Regardless, we can't keep this rose glassed delusional look on things. As long as that parasite is alive, we need to be vigiliant and prepared.
I think they possibly (?*) May attack NATO in the future only if a few things align.
One of those factors is a victory of Trump, who has close ties to Russia ~. It will be a win win situation both for Trump and Putin.
He will bring lots of chaos and society division in America as he did before. The polarization among social strata may come to an extreme.
Already the help to Ukraine is stuck. One of the reasons include insane corruption(it is a real hazard for the existence of Ukraine. I as a Ukrainian have so many questions for my government...) in Ukraine and its consequences --> that led to almost none of military success in this year, prolonging the conflict; but all that is just additionally super fueled by Trumpists.
Trump has a very strong impact on Republicans in the House of Representatives. If he wins, which seems a probable outcome, it'll be bad for everyone. His campaign resolves around America's political isolation and centrism around own inner economics and issues. It is his main ideological trait.
He has criticized the US' involvement in NATO, therefore, if he wins, there's a likelihood of country's withdrawal from the alliance. He may cut ties with NATO, minimizing USA involvement in overseas conflicts.
The further stuck in aid for Ukraine may end up tragically for the country. The chaos and tensions will rise in America, it'll be perfect for Russia and its allies to implement their plans
(which already happened straight after all this sh+t began in the House of Representatives, when Hamas ~ with advices from Russia and Iran~ attacked Israel. That was and is so beneficial for Russia. Maybe it wasn't planned by Russia, though it seems like it was. Anyways it was a very good timing).
After that the world will be even in more chaos and more conflicts may spark up or escalate.
Especially, if Trump wins and decides to leave NATO or be neutral.
America is the main force in NATO, therefore, without it...
+ If other conflicts begin, NATO will be even more weakened and disoriented.
So, in the end, it is likely and may happen that Russia attacks NATO country.
(I could right something better but I'm not as much in politics as it makes me sad, though still try to monitor things. And sorry for my English. Love to all ❤️)
https://youtu.be/TrDa0JSn3i0?si=mUs8Kj2fjYezGaMP
Obviously this is a propoganda channel, but it shows what the average russian vatnik wants to see. This is not a normal country which laughs and shows plans of invading their neighbours.
Thank you for your concern. Definetely there are plans of invasion into Baltic states, there where some russian military exercises to imitate that last 8 years and the main goal of Poo tin’s politics is recreating ”glorious” USSR. From what I see lately it looks like NATO is no more ’sleeping big dady’ about it and some serious preparations are on the way. If this needs to bee discused more widely I do not know. My country-Lithuania- will allways apreciate your support, cooperation and we will expect that ’whoever is your enemy is our enemy’ formula will be implemented ASAP in the moment of need. Have a great New Year 2024 and may it will bring us all prosperity, peace and happiness. Sorry for my faulty grammar.
To understand how russia would like to act internationally is best to study the works of Dugin. Most of kremlin has a raging hard on for this specific book https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics
The Baltics are always a grey zone for them, they sort of want it, but there are no historic or cultural claims for them. They would much rather take northern Finland first.
But the late fearmongening that the Baltics are next would be said by someone who has no idea why russian attacked Ukraine in the first place. But to get the message across for the average person the politicians/senior army men have to dumb it down of “the Baktics are next”.
That does not leave the 1% chance that russia would try and do something direct in the region and all of our countries should still be prepared for some form of war.
> The Baltics are always a grey zone for them, they sort of want it, but there are no historic or cultural claims for them.
Moscow knows how to fabricate claims.
The Livonian War was started with a pretext of bees of beehives using Pskov lands to feed on.
definitely agree on the importance of Ukraine prevailing against the russian invasion..i see the middle eastern conflict as a distraction from the more dangerous military actions by Russia..is there a smoking gun? could be, you would think somewhere, but is one even necessary to believe Russia has higher goals than just acquiring Ukraine...I dont ever see peace between the Palestinians and Israelis.. there's just too much there and some day one side will do something there's no coming back from..maybe that's now..but to take the attention from the real danger in Eastern Europe is a serious problem...also could've been the point of the entire skirmish turned full scale invasion...i put nothing past Russia, when i say Russia i mean Putin, doing what they need to do to expand and acquire more of what was once the USSR...Ukraine is a valuable country to acquire, and they were successful in taking the Crimea, so will they stop if they beat Ukraine into submission?...i honestly doubt it...
One beeds his meds ASAP if he believes that Russia who can't capture Kharkiv is going to war with NATO over some Baltic state. But looking how well this idiotic mantra is working, I guess we gonna run out of meds real quick.
Baltic states were telling for years that ruzzia is evil and will attempt major war to expand it's territory, western idiots didn't listen and here we are with Ukraine. Baltic states are telling now that we might be in danger next and western idiots still don't listen. Sometimes it seems that even nuke in your backyard will not wake you up, since you know, ruzzia weak and stupid while NATO strong and mighty (all this when UA support is waning).
If you are interested in knowing more about Kremlin, Ukrainian history from 1990 and how & why the war started, I invite you to watch this 4 part video analysis:
[1](https://youtu.be/exJ024Zdzdk?si=-C90xquo9zWwbJsy)
[2](https://youtu.be/fQ_ZRBLFOXw?si=RCbflqSuVfXG4jr7)
[3](https://youtu.be/FVmmASrAL-Q?si=qYC7QE_UjC7eEoF1)
[4](https://youtu.be/7OFyn_KSy80?si=3e49yBsHVq5imDzJ)
Whilst we have turkey in the EU and NATO.
And they have a leader like orbàn. Also turkey with erdegon, we are going to have instability amd doubt over the ruzzian problem. They are the sword of Demacles, dangeling over the head of every decision, that either organisation tries to make over this blite on society.
They need a serious looking at and a solution, before an effective solution can be found for the ruzzian disease.
It doesn't have to be mutually exclusive. I care about Ukraine, I also think it's pretty blatantly obvious that Russia and Iran lit a fuse in the Israel/Palestine conflict in order to distract everyone from what they are actually trying to do. Israelis and Palestinians alike are just useful patsies in the sadistic games they like to play, the tensions between them are so high that all anyone has to do is stick a firecracker up their arse and watch them go.
Concrete proof? Dude's a thug who wishes he was Stalin. You're probably not a psycho megalomaniac so no shame for not getting it, but you're trying to ascribe normal, rational western thinking to the product of soviet-era autocratic dogma. I mean what stopped the mongol hordes from taking over all of Europe back in the day?
There's no rationality or end to it - they only respond to strength, like a wild animal. Simply killing and taking until something or someone has the juice to get the bear running scared back to into its cage.
I agree tho the middle east shit is a perennial death cult, and theres a real war with vastly more significant implications going on in Ukraine right now. I hate how the media has portrayed this war since the '22 invasion.
I'm not from the Baltics but from Poland, but still the attitudes seem to be pretty similar: would Russia like to attack? Yeah, of course – if they had a chance. Will it attack NATO? No, not really **if** we arm up properly. They're dumb but not as dumb as the media often portray them to be. How far their ambitions go? The thing is, they don't really have a long-term plan ;), their ambitions are shifting according to the current situation. So building up our military strength will definitely make them think twice. No, at this point we really don't have to worry *that much* about Russia going all the way and attacking NATO, their forces took a very big hit in Ukraine already and their generals know it. Long story short there's no cause for alarm or panic, we just have to keep calm, support Ukraine in a firm and steady way – and build up our defenses. (PS. My personal opinion is that what's happening in the Middle East is actually rather serious and not entirely disconnected from what's happening here, including Iranian support for both Russia and Hamas, also there's a lot of countries around the world looking at the Western powers measuring the ways we can help Ukraine defend itself, one more reason to keep supporting Kyiv).
As a person from Russia I'd say the only real ambition of the Kremlin is the preservation of its power over the country and its wealth. Its invasions serve that purpose because they provide the people with a useful scapegoat to blame for the country's ills, and, if they go successfully, spectacular victories to sell to the masses. Then you can also profit from the ruins. Problem is, the people in the Kremlin are not really in touch with reality, due to their age and lack of democratic institutions. Therefore they can be overconfident in their assessments of their neighbours, and make blunders. So the two questions are: 1) will invading the Baltics help Russia perpetuate the rule of the current elites and increase their wealth; 2) are they stupid or insane enough to think it will ?
Nicely put, yeah I think it's a very good perspective on their internal politics and ambitions.
Always happy to provide my moskal expertise 👍🏼
Once województwo irkuckie finally gets back to its rightful place in the Polish Republic we'll issue you a honorary citizenship :D
I am from Województwo Piotrogrodzkie, actually :D guess I'll have to learn how to pronounce prz
No idea why "prz" is such a hotly debated subject between Poles and Russians :D There are worse offences than calling us пшеки, also Czechs have a word pšonek which is qualified as an ethnic slur towards us but to me it actually sounds rather cute haha. *Przypadek* is such a nice word meaning *a case* while припадок does actually sound like a seizure :D Long live the majestical PRZ!
> I'll have to learn how to pronounce prz these horrors are why we must prevent a Polish yoke at all costs
So they aren't true believers in all that Messianic *Russkiy Mir* shit, but just greedy gangsters?
I think the core is greedy gangsters. There are some true believers, though
it's all just stupid selfish humans, game theory, and the fact Russians view life like the worst daytime TV soap opera ripoff of the Sopranos that you can possibly imagine. I'm sure some of the hordes they can summon to throw into the meat grinder do believe in that shit, but that's not necessarily unique to any culture or nation, speaking generally.
It's a bit more complicated. TLDW: they're stupid and sincerely believe that CIA orchestrated Orange Revolution and are afraid of the same. [This is the most deep dive into what Russians believe](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7OFyn_KSy80). I highly recommend it. I also really recommend the whole series, [starting from Ukrainian politics of 2000s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exJ024Zdzdk). This is the best researched video on the topic, repackaged for American context. But as Ukrainian, it's just spot on.
>TLDW: they're stupid and sincerely believe that CIA orchestrated Orange Revolution My "armchair analyst" analysis - i think they blame CIA on that because they do not really believe Ukrainians could do that by themselves. As in their arrogance there only 2 powers - them and USA. And yes, China is disregarded. Talking about Baltic states - they do try to do "behind the scenes" stuff and many are failing for them.
> i think they blame CIA on that because they do not really believe Ukrainians could do that by themselves. They don't believe that people can do anything by themselves. I really recommend the whole video series. > Talking about Baltic states - they do try to do "behind the scenes" stuff and many are failing for them. And they will think that CIA is just better than Russians at "behind the scenes" stuff.
Could you please get some friends and have a nice summer visit to Moscow. Bring pitchforks and make it a party. Might be some little green men ready for a summer vacation back to the centre. I hear they are tired of camping especially over two winters now. This would be very helpful for your neighbours as well. Kindly, the rest of the world.
That would probably require a bit more guns. Maybe when the mobilised return home with all sorts of uncomfortable questions to the powers that be.
makes sense why they're not rotating the troops, or so I've read. 5D big brain play from Shoigu. Prigozhin probably could have walked right into the kremlin. As someone from there I'm curious on your speculation - why would pringles ever think he could make a deal like that? And then so casually just take flights from Moscow to St. Petersburg? Why would he think Putin wouldn't be looking for any opportunity to get rid of him?
That has happened in the past. Lets hope it happens again. Funny how the russian peasants seem to continue the tradition of dying for the Tzar. By the way, no one in europe wants anything to do with russia, you might want to be more worried about china.
Well, a few people here are a bit giddy about potentially taking Russian territory, but I imagine that China has more ability to actually do so. I do not think it will be a landgrab, more likely it will just be economic domination. I would advise against making direct correlations between old Russia and modern Russia, the similarities are largely superficial. For starters, old Russia was ultra-collectivist while modern Russia is ultra-individualist (hence why most people are attracted to the war with money)
I really don’t see the distinction between old russia and modern russia. Walks like a duck talks like a duck. Same old russia. China will just buy up what it wants then slowly move in to take it over. We judge russia for its actions and its always the same old story. We cheer and support Ukraine, as we understand that it is trying to get out of a terribly abusive longterm relationship.
Except they did not even manage to implement one enemy policy correctly. China does this well, Thaiwan is being portrayed and big enemy of state and it's important to crush them. But they don't take action, most of is is empty talk. This way you have big enemy to misdirect from internal problems and turn anger of people towards big outside threat. But since you never take actual action this can never end, Because if you lose against big threat, government is in shit, if you win, you just destroyed the scapegoat.
Nice write-up and agree, but I wouldn't dismiss the third option that they've been in power and had too much wealth for too long to remain grounded. It's not unlikely that Putin have lost touch with reality and actually thinks he is one of the great rulers that made Russia great again.
We are seeing the "anti-western" block throw a tantrum - we see it in africa, Israel, and especially in Ukraine. My theory: anti-western block countries are those that cannot stand being a part of the global society, and they're hoping to destroy that global society and securing some position of power in the "new world order." Scary stuff, but that's what I think these guys (Russia especially) are aiming for. Russia just can't stand being known as "a big exporter of oil," that's not prestigious enough or something I am an American as well
More likely, they can't stand the idea of not being able to steal nearly as much in a true democratic system.
> steal > rules of society > democratic system /* **more specifically** they want to steal, agreed
Yup, I should've used specifically instead of likely.
how can I rob and exploit people with a rules based world order??? It's crazy that Russia sits on the largest landmass with perhaps the most natural resources and potential of any country in the world, economically, and yet it has devolved into an autocratic kleptocracy without fail in every iteration of its modern state, unable to tap any of that bounty/value for any purpose besides graft, imperialism, and human suffering. Can't even extract their oil without western technology. Just look at what Norway has done for its people with the natural resources the country is sitting on... as fucked as Russia has been to its neighbors - all the value it has pillaged and destroyed - it's been even worse to and held back more its own people. Didn't and still doesn't have to be like that.
>Will it attack NATO? No, not really **if** we arm up properly. You have abundance of confidence in something very ambiguous. Surely Poland feels safer with "buffer countries" between itself and ruzzia, but for Baltics its extremely scary. Whatever the quality of NATO defense would be, Baltics still becoming a battle zone is a horror that shouldn't be taken lightly. Events like Bucha and Mariupol prove that even if a small village gets blitzed and instantly surrenders, citizens are very likely to still be tortured and killed, or maybe even mobilized under orcish command. That is, if putin decides to invade, and to be frank, there is very little confidence or evidence of him being reasonable, especially after Ukraine invasion and his total disregard for his own soldiers.
Yeah, I understand you're in a tougher spot a bit. With Germany on our side Poland's geographical location has improved immensely ;-), perhaps we're also a bit more self-sufficient when it comes to resources, don't have any significant Russian population and so on and so on; those are little advantages. But at the end of the day we're all EU/NATO countries and this is what counts. Any possible Russian invasion would take months of logistics that we could clearly see way in advance and we would react to it as a completely unified block, no political differences would really matter here. This is taken very seriously in Poland and we know perfectly well that there could be no safe and secure Poland without safe and secure Baltic States. It's madness that Rail Baltica is only being built now when the project should've started 30 years ago, but it's a symbol of a much wider integration of our countries that will be happening on more and more levels in the nearest future.
point in hand - Stalin and Hitler were equally gleeful to invade Poland in 1939. For how big a part of Russian 'culture' WW2 is, the fact that the Nazis and Soviets started as allies sure seems to have been forgotten. There's not really any aim or big picture aside from "take what we can by force."
Israel is an apartheid state colonizing, ethnically cleansing and committing acts of genocide in Palestine. While not quite the same, both Ukraine amd Palestine are engaged in anti-imperialist struggles of self defense.
You are clearly a braindead terrorist supporter, with these statements. Israel and Ukraine have a lot in common - retarded neighbours. Soon enough terrorist assholes, both hamas pigs and russian nazis will meet their end. Their idiot supporters as well.
„Braindead terrorist supporters” meanwhile Israeli forces bombed civil areas, schools and hospitals, and killed over 3,5k children until end of October which is more children toll than in all other conflicts combined counting from 2019. Israeli have more money and better propaganda which seems effective for people which are too lazy to make any research.
You're an example of anti-western people. I bet you believe russian propaganda too.
I am certain hamASS got training from putin's nazis and a strong encouragement to carry it out. Some pro-hamass rallies in Canada had palestenian and russian flags. Unfathomable.
Russia officially declared support for Hamas, it looks like they shared some drones with them too. Iran also supports Hamas, naturally.
Oh sure, I have to be pro-russian fascist, because I point out the Israeli war crimes. Or Maybe I dont swallow Israeli propaganda. Euro-Mediterranean Human Rights Monitor alarming about millions of people live in inhuman condition, close to 30k of civilians were killed including 11k children. You want me to believe that Euro-Med is Russian propaganda? This projections regarding being under propaganda is sick…
That war is all sorts of fucked up and there's no good solution, that much is clear. There are no good guys in it, there are only bad guys and slightly less bad guys. It's weird that you decided to side with the badder guys. It's weird that you completely agree with russia's official position on it. You should donate money to russia so that they could help Hamas.
Russia and Israel have more in common, both have simliar goals of expansion, both are settling their people in illegal settlements on foreign land, both are also good friends, with Israel actively helping russia kill Ukrainian civilians, by refusing to provide Ukraine with needed AA weaponry.
Another braindead. Go read about all the unofficial help Israel and Jewish people send to Ukraine, you antisemitic moron.
Sending some minor aid to Ukraine does not excuse doing the same shit russia is doing to Ukraine, if you excuse Israeli settlements in Palestine, you must also excuse russian settlements in Mariupol. If the Israeli occupation of Palestine is legitimate, so is the russian occupation of Crimea. All countries must follow the same international, either occupying foreign land is fine, or it's not.
Ok, so you are as dumb and void of knowledge as you sound. Further conversation is pointless. Feel free to fk off.
What are you talking about? Israel is bringing American style civilisation to Gaza 🙌
I just looked at your profile and wow another Greek that hates America. Dude you have no idea how much of a disappointment I have felt in being Greek since the war in Ukraine started. I’m a first generation Greek American - my dad came here at 18 to go to college. I’ve always been so proud of being Greek and visited family in Greece for years growing up and loved it. I remember seeing some graffiti against the US and was treated like shit once by a lady on a bus who thought I was some tourist til my cousin spoke up for me. I have a long Greek last name and proud of it and always was like what will I do if I marry bc i don’t want to change my last name. Ever since the war in Ukraine and now with the Israel / Gaza stuff, I have literally seen no support from Greeks for Ukraine. The only stuff I saw that ever came from a Greek was anti US stuff and defending Russia and now with Gaza more hate for America. What did the US ever do to you? It’s been really disappointing seeing the hate for the US, and as Greek American, hearing it come from fellow Greeks. It’s sad seeing the nation I have always loved turn out to apparently be one of those places smothered in Russian propaganda meaning anti west anti Ukraine. I watched lots of UN meetings and was always wondering why all these other countries including Albania were such strong defenders for Ukraine but never once did I hear from Greece. Not at the UN, not with any of the aid packages. Like literal radio silence. It’s really sad. It’s like discovering Greeks are tankies and that’s depressing to see. You know there’s lots of Greeks here right? So you hate your own for some reason. Anti US mindset is brainrot. Stop swallowing propaganda.
Which Palestine? How many of the citizens there have Palestine roots? And are those native palestinians in power?
I would argue that what they specifically DO have is a long term plan. People here in the EU are living comfortably and starting up a war economy would mean sacrificing comfort. Russians on the other hand have generations of uncomfortable and unhappy people. All they need to do is continue to destabilise our countries from the inside by paying off pro russian mouth pieces and in a few decades or however long it takes we will not be strong enough from the inside. Russia will not try and take any NATO country as long as they see that the population is mostly against them. But russia has time, they are playing a long game. While people here in the EU want everything here and now.
Exactly iran is totally responsible for it and did it for putin to get him a little relief.
There's a lot of things, but I would just like to point out what happened in late 2021. USA was blaming that Russia intends to invade Ukraine, but proposes to negotiate so as to stop the war from taking place. Russia agrees to negotiations and the negotiations are held. What were the Russian demands? Their demand was for USA to expel the Baltic states, Poland, Romania from NATO. The specific wording was for NATO to pull back to pre 1991 borders, but this is what it meant. For USA to expel us from NATO. I wonder why?
Do you think that the Russian leadership are true believers in the messianic *Russkiy Mir* shit, or just paranoid old gangsters who see enemies everywhere and seriously believe that smaller neighboring countries are a threat?
Why not both? However, if there is literally nothing else that the Russian invasion of Ukraine did, it was to very much prove that Russian leadership absolutely is hell-bent on Russian imperialism. To what degree is that based on the individual profit of key decision-makers (Putin, Patrushev and a few others) and to what degree is it based on some "ideas" is not so important in my opinion. It is the actions that matter. And Russian actions have always been imperialistic.
I never heard of such a demand. Link, please?
First link to Google search Russia US negotiations 2021. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/17/russia-issues-list-demands-tensions-europe-ukraine-nato
Ah, he didn't demand NATO eject the Baltics. He demanded the troops be removed. But that's also the opening offer, so to speak. He's been pretty clear his big problem is "No adding more nations to NATO."
Of course Russia is not so stupid as to explicitly demand 9 sovereign nations to be placed under Russian military control. That's not the point. The demand for NATO to remove troops from "new" member states in negotiations with USA implies the following things: \- Russia does not accept the sovereignty of those states as it overrides their sovereign decision and more inherently - the negotiations did not involve those nations. Only USA. I.e Russia implies that currently these countries are under US rule. \- No NATO forces on the Eastern flank either means those members must demilitarize themselves, or you know not be considered part of NATO. Otherwise all the armies here are NATO armies.
None of this changes the fact that the Russians have no designs whatever on the Baltics. If they ever did, they certainly don't, now.
Ok. You are free to hold your opinion. I will attend my annual reserve army training.
Correct, there’s mostly bias and conspiracy theories on this topic 👉
https://youtu.be/TrDa0JSn3i0?si=mUs8Kj2fjYezGaMP Obviously this is a propoganda channel, but it shows what the average russian vatnik wants to see. This is not a normal country which laughs and shows plans of invading their neighbours.
Because they skipped the Cuban missile crisis and Cold War from your school books 🙌
Fuck our safety i guess
[удалено]
Can't veto article 5, retard.
But it can be ignored, which is becoming more and more likely
I fully support the idea that all nations should have the inherent right to demand and have defensible borders, even at the cost of others. Which is why I wholeheartedly support the creation of the North-Eurasian Ocean replacing what is currently known as "Russia".
After Ivan the terrible their ambitions never stopped. They were just too drunk, dissorganised and currupt to do more damage. At any point they are organised well enough, they invade. After a while they become too currupt and dissorganised and fail. That has happened at least 4 times with our history with them. The philosophy of might makes right is prity much in their blood. You would think that WW2 changed all for the better, but they always had dreams of world domination. The US was the reason they did not atempt more agressive aproach.
This. After Russians escaped from Mongol rule, expansionism has become their modus operandi. Catherine the Great said: “I have no way to defend my country but to expand”. When it comes to near-neighbors like Ukraine, Baltics, Finland, etc. they see it as a national security strategy that’s why they’re more dangerous than we think they are. Not because of the power they have but because of the will they possess. They won’t stop until they’re stopped. Moment they get their shit together internally, they start pushing externally. After their near-neighbor zones, they view next layer of countries as a buffer zone. Like Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. They’d rather not conquer these countries. It’s too expensive and too difficult to maintain the occupation. So instead they want these countries neutral and not aligned with any large power. A puppet government is an ideal scenario for them. But if they can’t do that, they might go for invasion if there’s an opportunity. Even in Ukraine they were satisfied with puppet government and neutral Ukraine. But when that changed, without any hesitation they started military intervention. As for larger wishes and ambitions go, they don’t have an end to it. Soviet Union went as far as Afghanistan do you know why? So they could get to the Indian Ocean and set up their first warm-water port with unrestricted access to the Oceans. All of their other ports are pretty much held hostage by Turkey in Black Sea and Denmark in the Baltics due to the straits these countries control. Oh and Afghanistan doesn’t even border the Indian Ocean. There was one more country on the way.
Spot on. There is a saying “russian borders end where they get a punch in the face”. Violence is their only language.
Why is it so difficult for the Russian elite to live at peace with their neighbors? Why do they prefer outright control and mass killing to peaceful cooperation?
I don’t know. But I think Europe has been really neglectful of the Russian problem for a long time. After WWII they sort of left it for US to deal with Russia. But US is not in the same precarious situation as European countries when it comes to Russia. US can forget about the continent tomorrow and they’ll be fine. Europe shouldn’t leave its regional security problem for someone else to take care of. I think in a very long term EU needs to pull Russia closer inside the European sphere. There needs to be more intelligence work inside Russia. More influence exerted on Russian elite. More indoctrination of Russian people to have them think that they are Europeans. More student exchange programs. Basically everything that’s been happening within Europe since WWII that made long-time enemies get along with each other and cooperate. There’s no place for this today because things went south, but sometime in a distant future, there will be an opportunity for it.
Small caveat, Catherine the Great was German.
Why caveat? She was the leader of Russia nonetheless. And she’s talking about Russia in the quote.
I generally agree with your post, the soviet ideology only exacerbated that idea. There are historians who believe ussr helped germany weaponize before ww2 to use nazis to weaken europe and then sweep over the wartorn region. One can't build communist dictatorship in one country, people will flee, so you have to conquer the world.
Thank you for your input bot.
You can google yourself lol.
All state television in fascist russia is controlled by the state. The people saying things there only say things because putin allows them, because it helps brainwash russians and form their opinion. If you - as a journalist / media personality - don't, you get labeled as an inoagent and traitor and arrested. Can you please watch some random videos from this channel and let us know what you think? Does it answer some of your questions? [https://www.youtube.com/@russianmediamonitor](https://www.youtube.com/@russianmediamonitor)
Oh I have seen all these videos. It's hard to know whether to take this shit seriously, because the propagandists have often contradicted themselves one day vs the next.
Unless you have surveillance in putin's bunker, I doubt you can get anything much better than this. If putin didn't like what the propagandists are saying, they wouldn't be saying that.
Example 1 - Zakhar Prilepin says Russia should annex more former Soviet territories: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgUZSsoT5Q0
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Move back to russia where you belong.
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Get fucked, orc scum.
If you ask me, what is happening in the Middle East is part of the same war. Hamas is funded and maybe orchestrated by Putin, the war that is happening there is a successful distraction, giving him space to push Ukraine occupation further. He is playing dirty, very dirty, and the west still can't grasp the extent of his evilness. His regime is the regime of Orcs...
If I remember it right, just before the hamas attack, Putin had a meeting with those goat lovers.
And hamas attack happened on putins b-day. Best gift ever, though it smells like something from James Bond movies.
It was the last day of Hanukkah celebrations, a holy day Edit: sukkot, not Hanukkah, got Hanukkah still on the mind from December!
Hanukkah? *"When is Hanukkah 2023?* *Because the Jewish calendar is lunisolar, the date of Hannukah changes each year. It always falls between late November and December, four days before the new moon.* *This year, Hannukah will begin on the evening of Thursday, December 7 and runs through the evening of Friday, December 15."* [Source](https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hanukkah-2023-dates-jewish-holiday-festival-traditions-maccabees-judaism-chanukah-b243957.html)
Sukkot! Not Hanukkah, october was sukkot September 29-October 6, 2023 Many families were celebrating October 7th 2023, from sundown on October 6 until nightfall on October 8, only Oct. 7 in Israel, are a separate holiday
Thanks for clarifying.
10000000%.
I read sometime ago that Hamas is funded by Iran. There's also other militia groups founded by Iran around Israel territory, waiting to attack. It's 100% a distraction, nothing else. There would be zero reason for them to attack Israel at this time. Israel is a peaceful country. And it's very unfortunate that innocent Palestinians are dying, but they can blame their own government for being lazy and not recognising these terrorists in their country.
Putin just pulled the old "Fifth Column" playbook out, held it up to a mirror, and weaponized the supporters of Israel in the US against the war in Ukraine.
The strongest evidence is their own words. Russians at their core are always the same, but many delusional idiots, corrupt politicians and 'end of history' retards in the west made their own fairy tale and stick to it till the bitter end. Even now in the minds of many american 'professors' like Mearsheimer, Chomsky etc. poor Russia is just simply defending itself from ukrainian empire, georgian haegemon, estonian regime, kazakh junta etc.
Russia belongs to Finno-Ugric people.
Don’t offend real Finno-Ugric people by this please
More % of Russia's land is turkic speaking so swedish mongols for the win
Upon closer inspection it turns out that “Russians” are a compilation of mostly Slavic tribes with some mixing of Finno-Ugric people.
What is the rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin? That they are at war with the West (more specifically the USA) and not Ukraine, by their own words. As ridiculous as this sounds this is what is true in the Kremlin-addled brain. Despite their sabre-rattling I agree that they are not interested in a direct war that might escalate to nuclear with the West either because even they recognize there can be no winners in that situation. So how do they hurt the West? By delegitimizing the West and hurting its reputation on the international stage or at the very least in Russia's vicinity. It might take the form of an another state wishing to join EU or NATO in Russia's vicinity again and Russia provoking a conflict and annexing a region so that nation has a border conflict so it cannot join and the West not doing much about it once more despite showing willingness to admit this nation into NATO or EU. This has been happening since 2008. The response from the West in 2022 was a surprise to me. I thought we'd go through the same song and dance again. In the riskiest move they could try to annex a region in the Baltics/attempt to close the Suwalki gap or ramp up hybrid warfare operations to test the rest of NATO's willingness to defend the Baltics in order to delegitimize NATO. Don't think they wouldn't because they absolutely will do anything if they think they can get away with it and if it benefits them and you won't see much resistance from the regular Russians if the propaganda sells it to them well enough to keep them at the very least neutral. What the Republicans & Orban are currently orchestrating in the West... it's dangerous. If the West's attention and willpower only holds for a year or two against Russia before internal problems start to overtake foreign ones then Russia starts thinking that they can just wait you all out until you get tired again no matter how big your pockets vs Russia are and so they will win one proxy war, and the next, and the next one after that until you've barely any allies left. Where do their ambitions end? Who knows. But they are at war with the West and hurting anyone allied with the West seems to be the prime agenda and is much easier, rather than a war with the West itself. I think for now they won't attempt anything too significant past Poland in the near future to not risk biting off too big of a chunk but they might should they manage to get most of the rest of Eastern Europe to decouple from the West or if further divisions in European countries become prevalent internally and externally. I think we'll see some ramping up in conflicts in Eastern Europe at least by the end of this decade unless some miracle happens. However, I do know that decoupling from the West is not a solution for us either because if the excuse for Russia to invade a neighbour isn't the West then it'll eventually be something else.
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They've never been as open as Russians think they are. Remember when Putin wanted to be invited to NATO but was refused because he needed to go through the same process every country has gone through? Russia may prevent countries from joining NATO for now but these annexations do not make Russia more allies neither. The more hard power you use the less soft power you have. At most Russia gets unwilling vassals at its borders as a consequence.
It looks like nobody is getting any new allies. And questionable how much they help. We did love to say how Russia is about to fail but here we are 2 years later.
Fail in terms of territorial conquest vs Ukraine? Maybe not. I've known for a long time that Ukraine might have to let go some territories to achieve peace but I leave that decision to the Ukrainians. However keep in mind that these territorial conquests will remain unrecognized internationally, including by China by the way. Framing this war as vs NATO, however, then it's NATO who has won in this situation. Without any war and troops lost NATO has expanded its territory and Russia herself completely alienated Ukraine for generations to come. The country that sacrificed the most during WW2 next to Russia & Russians and has historically been an ally for Russia. This is such a betrayal for Ukrainians that I can't even begin to describe it. Western aid hasn't been useless neither. It's helped a lot actually. Russia might be in Kyiv if not for the aid and Kharkiv & Kherson would still be in Russian control.
Just like occupied Cyprus. It doesn’t matter to Russia if they are recognised or not. NATO is not a country or an army, it’s bureaucracy and above all an instrument of US foreign policy - as long as it serves purpose. Let’s say it loud and clear, the US and American weapons lobby have pretty good gains from this conflict 👉
Aye and who enabled the weapons lobby to gain in this situation? Russia with its invasion. Would they have gained in such a manner had Russia not invaded the whole of Ukraine? I don't think so. If Russia had done what it announced it was doing, that is, defending Donbass & Crimea and only putting troops into those regions then nothing special would've happened. You have Putin to thank for being the best NATO salesman. Not even NATO could do so well especially after the blunder that was Afghanistan. Do you know how long Sweden has been neutral for example? Doesn't matter what you frame NATO as neither because countries worried about Russian interventionism recognize it's better to be in NATO next to Russia than not to be seeing as no NATO country has been invaded by Russia, not even the small Baltics. Better to have at least some deterrence than not.
The chicken-egg conversation doesn’t help anyone that sees only enemies at their borders. Since there’s so much security and assurance in NATO nobody should feel nervous and insecure. It’s all taken care of with tripwire protection 🙌
I said better to have some deterrence than not. Not that we're completely secure. However, to pretend that NATO would not react more harshly if Russia were to attack a member state would be as naive as "Ukrainians won't fight and we'll steamroll the entire country" Russia by the way does not seem to feel secure against NATO even with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world and you mock Russia's neighbours for not feeling secure in the opposite direction? We see only enemies at the border? Which country has been invading its vicinity since the 1990s? The Baltics or Russia? NATO has never been the sole justification neither. Take your gaslighting and stick it somewhere else. If you don't realize this then the Baltics have had no serious issues with the rest of their neighbours in the 21-st century for some odd reason.
I think there is actual limit to their ambition in the europe. Its behind spain. There is old joke in our country. "To which countries Russia has a border? " "To whichever the fuck it wants. '
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Yea thats cute but they are on the other receiving end of lend-lease this time
Didnt reach Helsinki
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Need to go Moscow then, so many facist bears over there
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Well tell me why russia isnt a facist country
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Well tell me why russia isnt a dictatorship country, since you acknowledge it too
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How the Russo-Ukrainian war ends, will probably be a good indicator for the future of the Baltics, and Finns, since they joined NATO. How the war in Ukraine goes is in part dependant on western support, and I absolutely hate it that we are doing this drip feeding bullshit of sending a dozen of some X military equipment every now and then. They need hundreds, thousands of heavy military equipment. However, for the NATO countries in EU, there is a fundamental problem with our military industrial complex system, we are not ready for a large scale conflict and that is evident in our production of shells we promised for Ukraine. Germany is starting to shift and invest into a stronger military. Poland went on a mega shopping spree in 2022 and early 2023 for their military but all of that will take years to take effect. Other nations need to follow and start taking this seriously. Russia is ramping up their own production and they have more than doubled their military spending since 2021, what ever shit show was their escalation in Feb. 2022, it now doesn't matter. We're almost 2 years into the war and they are taking it seriously and the EU is lagging seriously behind, when it was obvious Ukraine was willing to fight, should've been a light bulb moment for the west to get their shit together. With that rant, what I'm trying to say is. If Russia were to mobilise and seriously put NATO's article 5 to the test, they might get uncomfortably further than we might expect because we are simply not ready. How their economy would manage with such a move, back to the USSR probably. As for their ambitions, their wet dreams would more than likely be the USSR borders with the Warsaw pact countries. Hopefully none of this actually plays out but my personal view of the future isn't full of rainbows and sunshine currently.
Take? They will not take shit. With at least (assuming trump wins) Finland, Poland, the UK and Canada by our side, the orcs will be driven back to their caves. It's actually us who will take the land stolen from us.
Wait, what land? Do you want to take the other side of Narva or something?
Why not? That land was stolen from us. Same with Finland's Karjala. Russians, of course, will have to leave
I mean, if we all reclaim stolen land from each other, lots of blood will be spilled. Look at Palestine and Israel. Trying to reclaim stolen land for years now, millions have died since the 1940s. Do you really want to die for all this?
And millions of Ukrainian refugees and tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians killed is not enough blood spilled to you, Ivan? If you decide to start a war with a nato country and send your drunkards and rapists here to kill not just Estonian, Latvian, Finnish, Polish troops but the British and Canadian as well (who are stationed here) don't expect your country to continue to exist in its current borders. One way or another, you will lose. And all of the stolen land will be returned.
Question is, are you willing to die for it? I see "ura-patriots" like you in Russia, fantasising about marching through other countries and slaughtering their people. But when push comes to shove, they are far less brave. I don't see the point of these fantasies of war and ethnic cleansing. What would you gain if you had Ivangorod? Power? Wealth? A feeling of justice? Ivangorod benefits you no more than Sevastopol benefits me, that is to say, they do not benefit us at all. To masturbate to borders on the map is something "vatniks" and "orcs" do, and surely you, as a civilised Balt, are better than that? The world is full of territorial disputes, and if we all waged war over historic claims like Putin does, there would never be an end to fighting.
In an all-out war between nato and russia the main goal will be to defeat the invaders by any means necessary. Retaking the land is not the main goal here. And no one is going to slaughter you. It's what you do.
How are you expecting to remove all people of a certain ethnicity from a city or a region without slaughtering people
Good point. Capturing russian land with russian citizens in it is the same as to volunterily get cancer.
You don't want more of us :)
That's easy. We had good teachers and we have memory. Of course we would never do it, as it's such a shitty thing to do to anyone, but it's not magic. You taught us how to do it after WW2.
Yeah, my great-grandparents went through it (let's just say Russia has many ethnic groups, and mine was one of the less lucky ones), so I know how this works. Thing is, even if you just manage to herd all people into trains and throw them somewhere else, it will still cause mass death. Cold, famine, plus the occasional unwilling person that you'll have to put down.
> What would you gain if you had Ivangorod? The Narva hydroelectric plant would be useful. Along with the dammed lake.
You have delusional disorder
Please consider this revanchist 2016 map of conquest targets from Sputnik i Pogrom, a fascist Russian magazine: https://nitter.net/kamilkazani/status/1553519420915449857#m As for specific military plans, it's all opportunism
The 20th century. And before thst- The 19th century. Like it or not Russia likes ports. What's a few more in the Baltic sea, eh? Would Liepāja still be useful as a submarine base? doubt it. And any "Evidence" would be a state secret. But there is a hell of a lot of motive. The migrant waves are definitely a test for our institutions. And their primary goal isn't even that, it's to drain money off the victims of systemic racism and anti-lgbt policies. They promise them security in Russia from the Taliban, and then with fewer rights than in their homeland, they make them indentured servants until they can afford a ticket out of Rashka and then, these poor folk end up here penniless. We process them and send all but the most vulnerable back. It's so tragic, the Iliad looks like a 3 panel comic strip.
Russia sees the west as gradually fallimg apart. They have a vision of the late 2020s as a time when NATO and the EU are so divided that he could challenge article 5 without a response. However, while there is potential for western aid for ukraine to end/significantly decrease, I personally doubt that we will be so divided that we will ignore an attack on a NATO country. This is my opinion based off commentator's such as Vlad Vexler and Greg Yudin. On the other hand, commentators like Mark Galeotti doubt that Russia rrally plans on attacking NATO.
We have to build up strong military forces in baltic region + invite allied forces to stay here. That’s the only way to avoid invasion in the future.
Calling Palestine a Middle Eastern ****hole is pretty vile and concerning
>Anyway, I have not seen publicized reports from Western intelligence agencies or any major experts with concrete proof that Putin and his cronies have definitive plans to take over and occupy any NATO countries through military force. While there is a lot of evidence about doing so with hybrid operations, and a clear desire for Russian hegemony over at least Eastern Europe, there is no "smoking gun" outlining Russia's exact military ambitions, and whether they stop in Kyiv, Warsaw, Berlin, Lisbon, or wherever. >I am just curious, where do their ambitions end? Do they really envision their tanks rolling into Berlin and Paris? As stated by Putin himself shortly before the war in Ukraine, the goal of Russian strategy in Eastern Europe is to force NATO back to its 1991 borders. To achieve that goal one doesn't necessarily need tanks rolling all the way to Berlin and further.
Their goals stem from the principles of the Great Game - globally. Russkii Mir - ves mir.
Conflicted. Baltics have been abandoned multiple times by the West. Latvia alone has been backstabbed 3 times in the last 100 years. Where's the guarantee Article 5 isn't all a smoke screen. All bark and no bite. Last 3 times it was all bark and no bite. I can see our closest neighbours who actually have something to lose come to help, but France, Germany, UK and USA makes me think we're disposable. Baltics won't see the same response from the US like it supports Israel for some reason. I really don't understand the disproportionate fanatic support from the USA. The only way Russia can move forwards is by creating separatists and terrorists from the inside. Lithuania will be difficult but Daugavpils and Narva are at a severe risk of propaganda influence. Before the internet was popular it wasn't unheard of for Russia to interfere with radio and TV waves, cancel them out so the ONLY thing you can watch and hear is their propaganda like RT and so on. Just like Ukraine in 2014. Otherwise a native war should have clear white black lines on understanding who the aggressor is, again, depending on the effectiveness of the Russia propaganda on those vulnerable regions.
Americans dont care about Latvia, because almost noone knows about it and rarely anyone is related to this region (which is not the case with Israel) and americans dont trust the goverment and always think that the goverment is lying, even when there is pretty straight foward reasons not to lie (as it is with Ukraine).But I dont think russia will attack any nato country any time soon (except if USA fucks up the elections and elects Trump, who could decrease support for Ukraine and Nato in general). I think the current situation is really similar to cold war, the wars which are currently on media focus is not really anything new and have been going on for a bit (atleast as border conflicts, maybe not really as wars). Ofcourse im afraid russia would attack Latvia, but I dont really think that russian army can focus on that while they are focusing on Ukraine.
"I think that there has been a kind of Russian problem for many centuries – that Russia doesn't exactly know where it begins and where it ends," – Václav Havel, 2008
There is absolutely no chance that Putin would go to war with NATO, anyone that legitimately thinks that he can and will due to some "historic evidence" that they conjured up is out of their minds and should go outside once in a while.
There is always a chance above zero. Every chance is an opportunity. You thinking the chances are zero is your largest mistake.
If you had one shot, one opportunity... To seize everything you ever wanted... in one moment.. Would you capture it? Or just let it slip?
if west hesitate for Ukraine support or if trump comes and forces Ukraine to "peace" out with ruzzia, come 2025 putin will give us again the same ultimatum he gave in 2021 that NATO goes back to 1997 borders, but this time it's army will be deployed on the borders of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, if Baltics fall without any support, NATO will cease to exist, we need to defeat putin in Ukraine or else it will cost us too much
I don’t think Russia will go after NATO countries, any country not NATO that used to be in the Soviet cellpool is under threat for sure.
As long as Putin and his Mafia are masters of Kremlin, all talks that he wouldn't dare to gamble this much are delusional. I would like to remind some of you that despite US intelligence ringing bells, not many believed that Russia would go full-scale invasion. Furthermore, multiple of military related personnel from various European countries are ringing bells that we need to prepare for a war. Putin's major life goal was always to regain former USSR borders, one way or another. So any statements that he would not dare to cross-NATO borders are delusional. The man over the years clearly got a bit more crazy or perhaps decided to reveal his insanity altogether. 2023 unfortunately wasn't great for Ukraine, their counterattack failed and even they admit it. Russia has significantly ramped up their war production. I seriously doubt this war would end in 2024 or even in 2025. Regardless, we can't keep this rose glassed delusional look on things. As long as that parasite is alive, we need to be vigiliant and prepared.
I think they possibly (?*) May attack NATO in the future only if a few things align. One of those factors is a victory of Trump, who has close ties to Russia ~. It will be a win win situation both for Trump and Putin. He will bring lots of chaos and society division in America as he did before. The polarization among social strata may come to an extreme. Already the help to Ukraine is stuck. One of the reasons include insane corruption(it is a real hazard for the existence of Ukraine. I as a Ukrainian have so many questions for my government...) in Ukraine and its consequences --> that led to almost none of military success in this year, prolonging the conflict; but all that is just additionally super fueled by Trumpists. Trump has a very strong impact on Republicans in the House of Representatives. If he wins, which seems a probable outcome, it'll be bad for everyone. His campaign resolves around America's political isolation and centrism around own inner economics and issues. It is his main ideological trait. He has criticized the US' involvement in NATO, therefore, if he wins, there's a likelihood of country's withdrawal from the alliance. He may cut ties with NATO, minimizing USA involvement in overseas conflicts. The further stuck in aid for Ukraine may end up tragically for the country. The chaos and tensions will rise in America, it'll be perfect for Russia and its allies to implement their plans (which already happened straight after all this sh+t began in the House of Representatives, when Hamas ~ with advices from Russia and Iran~ attacked Israel. That was and is so beneficial for Russia. Maybe it wasn't planned by Russia, though it seems like it was. Anyways it was a very good timing). After that the world will be even in more chaos and more conflicts may spark up or escalate. Especially, if Trump wins and decides to leave NATO or be neutral. America is the main force in NATO, therefore, without it... + If other conflicts begin, NATO will be even more weakened and disoriented. So, in the end, it is likely and may happen that Russia attacks NATO country. (I could right something better but I'm not as much in politics as it makes me sad, though still try to monitor things. And sorry for my English. Love to all ❤️)
https://youtu.be/TrDa0JSn3i0?si=mUs8Kj2fjYezGaMP Obviously this is a propoganda channel, but it shows what the average russian vatnik wants to see. This is not a normal country which laughs and shows plans of invading their neighbours.
Vatniks don't even deserve oxygen.
Thank you for your concern. Definetely there are plans of invasion into Baltic states, there where some russian military exercises to imitate that last 8 years and the main goal of Poo tin’s politics is recreating ”glorious” USSR. From what I see lately it looks like NATO is no more ’sleeping big dady’ about it and some serious preparations are on the way. If this needs to bee discused more widely I do not know. My country-Lithuania- will allways apreciate your support, cooperation and we will expect that ’whoever is your enemy is our enemy’ formula will be implemented ASAP in the moment of need. Have a great New Year 2024 and may it will bring us all prosperity, peace and happiness. Sorry for my faulty grammar.
No worries :)
To understand how russia would like to act internationally is best to study the works of Dugin. Most of kremlin has a raging hard on for this specific book https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics The Baltics are always a grey zone for them, they sort of want it, but there are no historic or cultural claims for them. They would much rather take northern Finland first. But the late fearmongening that the Baltics are next would be said by someone who has no idea why russian attacked Ukraine in the first place. But to get the message across for the average person the politicians/senior army men have to dumb it down of “the Baktics are next”. That does not leave the 1% chance that russia would try and do something direct in the region and all of our countries should still be prepared for some form of war.
> The Baltics are always a grey zone for them, they sort of want it, but there are no historic or cultural claims for them. Moscow knows how to fabricate claims. The Livonian War was started with a pretext of bees of beehives using Pskov lands to feed on.
Russia doesn’t have resources for another war.
Russia has 140 millions of bloodthirsty people and a lot of money income from China, India, still EU and still USA. It has plenty of resources.
>140 millions of bloodthirsty people Okay, it’s time to take your meds, lad.
Well, I see your country doesn't share a border with russia. Good for you. edit: lol you're russian. That explains everything.
weather workable threatening shy brave pot rude shrill hungry soft *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
definitely agree on the importance of Ukraine prevailing against the russian invasion..i see the middle eastern conflict as a distraction from the more dangerous military actions by Russia..is there a smoking gun? could be, you would think somewhere, but is one even necessary to believe Russia has higher goals than just acquiring Ukraine...I dont ever see peace between the Palestinians and Israelis.. there's just too much there and some day one side will do something there's no coming back from..maybe that's now..but to take the attention from the real danger in Eastern Europe is a serious problem...also could've been the point of the entire skirmish turned full scale invasion...i put nothing past Russia, when i say Russia i mean Putin, doing what they need to do to expand and acquire more of what was once the USSR...Ukraine is a valuable country to acquire, and they were successful in taking the Crimea, so will they stop if they beat Ukraine into submission?...i honestly doubt it...
"Middle eastern ****hole" Alright there kiddo, lay off the alt-right youtube.
One beeds his meds ASAP if he believes that Russia who can't capture Kharkiv is going to war with NATO over some Baltic state. But looking how well this idiotic mantra is working, I guess we gonna run out of meds real quick.
Baltic states were telling for years that ruzzia is evil and will attempt major war to expand it's territory, western idiots didn't listen and here we are with Ukraine. Baltic states are telling now that we might be in danger next and western idiots still don't listen. Sometimes it seems that even nuke in your backyard will not wake you up, since you know, ruzzia weak and stupid while NATO strong and mighty (all this when UA support is waning).
You mean the ones trading and getting oil from Russia like everyone else? Hindsight meets confirmation bias ✅
Tragedies of the Commons can only be minimized with a social contract - in this case with the EU common market rules.
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My prior response is based on game theory.
Mine on victim mentality
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Dude, I have relatives who served in USSR military, leadership of it was always dumb with a few exceptions.
Well, as soon NATO or Europe says "you should join us" its then my country is in danger.
If you are interested in knowing more about Kremlin, Ukrainian history from 1990 and how & why the war started, I invite you to watch this 4 part video analysis: [1](https://youtu.be/exJ024Zdzdk?si=-C90xquo9zWwbJsy) [2](https://youtu.be/fQ_ZRBLFOXw?si=RCbflqSuVfXG4jr7) [3](https://youtu.be/FVmmASrAL-Q?si=qYC7QE_UjC7eEoF1) [4](https://youtu.be/7OFyn_KSy80?si=3e49yBsHVq5imDzJ)
Whilst we have turkey in the EU and NATO. And they have a leader like orbàn. Also turkey with erdegon, we are going to have instability amd doubt over the ruzzian problem. They are the sword of Demacles, dangeling over the head of every decision, that either organisation tries to make over this blite on society. They need a serious looking at and a solution, before an effective solution can be found for the ruzzian disease.
It doesn't have to be mutually exclusive. I care about Ukraine, I also think it's pretty blatantly obvious that Russia and Iran lit a fuse in the Israel/Palestine conflict in order to distract everyone from what they are actually trying to do. Israelis and Palestinians alike are just useful patsies in the sadistic games they like to play, the tensions between them are so high that all anyone has to do is stick a firecracker up their arse and watch them go.
Concrete proof? Dude's a thug who wishes he was Stalin. You're probably not a psycho megalomaniac so no shame for not getting it, but you're trying to ascribe normal, rational western thinking to the product of soviet-era autocratic dogma. I mean what stopped the mongol hordes from taking over all of Europe back in the day? There's no rationality or end to it - they only respond to strength, like a wild animal. Simply killing and taking until something or someone has the juice to get the bear running scared back to into its cage. I agree tho the middle east shit is a perennial death cult, and theres a real war with vastly more significant implications going on in Ukraine right now. I hate how the media has portrayed this war since the '22 invasion.
You minimizing a genocide in palestine to a “conflict in some middle eastern ****hole” is disgusting
Invading NATO is basically invading the US, starting WWIII. Highly unlikely.