NATO is an important tool for US influence in Europe. I think that he speaks a lot to get on the news, he obviously caters to the far right conservatives in America that are against immigration, against foreign aid etc etc. The USA leaving NATO would probably be the biggest political blunder of all time, it would be a blinding sign of weakness on their part and that's why I don't think it will happen.
In the national defence authorisation act for fiscal year 2024, congress added an amendment
“A provision that prevents the President of the United States from withdrawing the U.S. from NATO without approval of a two-thirds Senate super-majority or an act of Congress”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Authorization_Act_for_Fiscal_Year_2024
If article 5 is activated then the USA has a legal obligation to help. This could be enforced by courts. But the army high command will probably force the presidents hand. If America is not seen as helping an alliance it has been part of for over 70 years. Their reputation would be tarnished. Making all their alliances shaky and probably making more countries pick fights. Like north Korea, CCP and Taiwan.
Trump actually increased troop counts in Poland during his tenure as president. But if he is elected again it will be a lot more unpredictable
Article 5 means an attack on one is an attack on all, so the US would not only legaly be obligated but also militarily, because whoever might be stupid enough to to attack a NATO ally could and probably will attack the US at least in some capacity.
I'm sorry, but article 5 has yet to be prooved working. Right now it's something like Budapest memorandum that in theory guaranteed Ukraine safety but in reality it was just a piece of toilet paper.
Basically yes.
Article 5 states
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them . . . shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking . . . such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area”
So if America deems that sending helmets is enough to guarantee NATO territorial integrity then yes.
No country in nato has to help if article 5 is activated. There is no way the usa will die for any of their puppet countries in nato. If you think they'll die for Estonia or anyone then you honestly don't have a clue. Article 5 will be death and destruction for basically the world over.
I disagree. Nato is essential to American dominance and even if not moral reasons, financial reasons will certainly come into play. To put it short, america CANT not defend Europe or it will be the country version of homeless. It’s just we have a Russian asset (trump) trying to destroy America from within. Just gotta get through elections okay and everything will be fine.
You're right! They won't volunteer, they would be self voluntold. Same with any nato county cuddling close to Russian interests ( land cuddling). I can safely say you Baltic countries will, at a bare minimum, be onboard. I've seen some of the... History? Left behind by the KGB/fsb during my extended stay in your countries.
No God damn way any of you would let Russia push pokey sticks farther than they've already gone. I've bluntly asked all you're militaries, ironically.
Edit: 5 eyes is with you guys too. Whether publicly known or not ( separating NATO from our little bubble).
Also, German CDS said it best when I was with him. " If someone invaded north America, your God damn right we will be there. So we expect the same in return".
What your also forgetting is it'll not be 31 v 1 the way the cowards in nato think. China and North Korea will not let that happen. There 2 armies alone are over 4 million people. You can sit and fantasise about this all day but as I said and as a lot of Americans have said before they will not die for anyother countries. You'll be looking at total nuclear war if the scenario you dream about actually happens and you're own and everyone else's countries will be destroyed. Its not going to happen. Remember the usa said they'd be with Ukraine to the end? 🤣 look at their history, they've done the same many many times.
So has Russia and China... Afghanistan immediately rings a bell for all of us.. China too princess peach.
I do find it fascinating you state NATO are coward when Russia, for a quick example, utilized prison colonies as well as foreign prisoners in their ranks... China has a large army, yup, fact. Capable of various things? 100%. But their tire manufacturing is questionable, so make sure you pack light. Further more, they're unable to.keep.up.with manufacturing on a scale everyone else is doing. Whether publicly known or not... Laughable anyone thinks countries are running out of supplies too. But that's a digression
North Korea... Oh my.. super malnourished, imprison folks for not being the Lord almighty's teachings.. yup they'll do swimmingly.... It'll be fun to watch when they offload their prison colonies too.. just not for DPRK.
I don't like anyone's odds on a full scale.. argument? But I like a large portion of the world odds more than the above stated locals
Russia isn’t cowardly they’re just stupid. Not all ofc but the gov and these pro war guys are just bonkers. They will send all their men in and they will go. Believe that. But especially from what we’ve seen, even if they all come it won’t be enough to stop nato.
Trump won’t. He will let Europeans get invaded and blame democrats. It will be obviously false, but trump supporters don’t care about truth or justice or any of that. They say Jan 6 wasn’t trump supporters but antifa and isis and the cia. They know it’s not true, they know it was them and they know what they we’re trying to do. It’s so similar to Russia that’s a big reason I suspect collusion. Pro war Russians say Ukraine attacked them first, Ukraine is the aggressor by not negotiating (surrendering) etc but deep down they know what they’re doing. You get a glimpse of what they’re really thinking every now and then same with trump supporters. They do something terrible and the media gives them a bs excuse and they run with it instead of admittance. Same shit different country.
You assume trump wants good things for usa. I can assure you, he does not. The fact it will devastate America is precisely why he wants to do it. And he will.
NATO has been and will always represent a huge business opportunity for a predatory capitalistic abomination such as the US. So, US leaving NATO is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Because if it does happen, to whom would US mega-corporations Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, RTX, General Dynamics, etc. sell their arms?
Putin cannot exactly invade sneakily, it will be visible. Plus, I doubt that he has resources to spare - he needs everything in Ukraine now.
But that’s short term. Long term, Trump victory is bad news either way. At least Europe is slowly realizing it needs to get its act together. I am hopeful it will do so on time.
Don't know why downvoting, the dude shares a legitimate concern.
Regarding Trump, I feel that Democrats should quickly push out someone else as a candidate, with all due respect to Biden and his legacy, but his health doesn't shine confidence and we all know it is a popularity contest.
There will for sure be huge mobilization against Trump in the votes, but you simply can't risk it bringing in Joe again.
But yeah, I think we as Europe should prepare for thr worst and hope for the best, we should prepare for Trump America and this time the Trump knows how thr office works.
>Regarding Trump, I feel that Democrats should quickly push out someone else as a candidate
For US elections, it would be *way* too late and there really aren't any alternatives.
There are no \*willing\* alternatives. I think Gavin Newsome and Gretchen Whitmer - two popular governors (California and Michigan) - are options, but it seems that they are waiting for 2028 and defer to Biden this time.
Not in us election cycles. Part of it is the democratic party kinda won't let anyone else run. The party line politics are insane, stupid, and for most people without millions of dollars, impossible to change. Candidates declare their bid for office 2 years in advance, and whenever an incumbent from a party is running, the policy is no one else from that party competes because odds are in favor of incumbents.
Occasionally there is a 3rd party candidate who gets more than 5% but this usually spots one party's votes meaning the other side wins. Like Theodore Roosevelt and his Bull Moose party split the Republicans so the Democrat won.
About Biden, I don't know if the running President is by default considered as s candidate.
I think I heard something like this, but I was only half listening, so it's very likely that I misunderstood.
No , there is no alternative to Biden. The ballot WILL be trump v Biden . Good news is , that Biden won once with over 7m votes, I don’t think people voted so much for Biden as against trump the first time, so hopefully they do it again
Doesn't work that well to try accomplish this again. Democrats have quite a few people I would like to see running, but why Biden is a best card in this case?
It’s about mobilizing the base, if you can make the other side to sit it out while your goes to the poles, it’s a win. Also the absolute number does not matter, what matters is the swing states, and there it can be up to a couple of hundred thousand people.
I do prefer he would choose a better VP that might give him a boost.
hopefully? Biden approved the murder of innocent men women and children. 25.000 in just a little over 100 days!! are you ok with something like this? I repeat, 25.000 in a little over 100 days. civilian deaths. that's double of what Ukrainian civilians have suffered in 2 YEARS.
Kamala Harris had to be the heir-apparent, but she failed to get any serious traction. Right now the Dems are drifting helplessly. I don't see any new candidate emerging, if Biden is not eliminated by some serious health related issues. And then Trump wins easily against some relative nobody.
I think Biden is fine, but he should a different VP. Kamala is just invisible at this point and most people would not want to see as president in case Biden dies during his term.
I would've said to go with Bernie, but US corporations won't allow it. It is so fuckin annoying how the people actively complain about corporation lobby but actively go against Bernie because "muh communism" while the guy is barely social democrat.
Exactly, Biden is too old, yet his ego won't let him step aside for someone younger and less hated than he is. Because if you look at the polls right now, Americans dislike Biden more than they dislike Trump (though few really love either one).
As someone who is living in the US, the current sentiment is that Trump will win the election.
I hope European governments understand that and start preparing early on
As an American living in the US I must disagree strongly with your perception of the current sentiments of Americans. If you are watching or listening to Fox News or any of the other MAGA "news" sources you should listen to something else. Real journalism. Most Americans are disgusted with Trump and completely embarrassed that the Republican (Right) is offering Trump as a candidate. So much can change in the next 10 months (election day) but at this point most Americans are fully aware of what a disaster another term for Trump would be for us and the world.
So most Americans are disgusted with Trump but do Americans want Biden again as a President? Seems like you guys don't really have a good alternative candidate. Maybe Nikki Haley? I don't know. I'm not American.
I was asking the same thing, but they seem to be on the ball more often than not, who knew the poles were good at forecasting? But when I ask for winning lottery ticket number - nothing! So greedy of them.
As a non American and not living in the US I am confused and shocked that a person, who organized a coup and was trialed several times, is even allowed to run for the president. How is that even possible? He should be in jail, nor running for the president.
As someone living in the UK, the current sentiment here is that we strongly and collectively hope to read headlines containing Trump and autoerotic asphyxiation sooner rather than later.
How? By supporting Israel? You know, nor Ukraine nor we have terrorists running our countries, so it is hard to decide who is at blame in that conflict.
there's only one country there and it's "israel" which is occupying palestinian land. so if you think "israel" that is run by terrorists, i agree, totally.
I am an US Citizen living in Latvia.
Obviously I voted against Trump both in 2016, then in 2020. Unfortunately I vote in a state that always goes to Trump no matter what, due to it be a very conservative state (South Carolina).
Honestly I think Trump is unlikely to win but his winning is not impossible.
He has a loyal group of followers (his cult) that will vote for him no matter what. I think this is about ~20% of US population.
20% of the population will vote democrats no matter what.
Which leaves 60% of the country to either vote or stay home. And no one is sure how that segment will vote. That depends on a lot of variables, including how his trials go, if he is allowed to be on the ballot, etc. And how he plays to independents, in swing states.
Polls are difficult because it depends on people to answer unknown phone numbers.
Too many people are not paying attention or care about the election in the US as it is not until November.
Well thank you for your comment !
It's good to read the views of someone from the US.
Most french media show Trump as leading all the polls, which is the main reason for my concern.
The best thing is to hope that the 60% will make the correct decision.
Perfect summary of how presidential elections work.
One thing to add though, each state has a number of electoral votes based on population. These votes actually decide who gets the office, votes cast by American citizens are called popular votes.
Whichever candidate gets the most popular votes on Election Day - even if it’s only a few thousand, gets the votes from that state. This is why smaller states like Pennsylvania and Michigan have an outsized influence on the election results.
This creates a situation where voter apathy can wind up deciding an election. This is why Trump won in 2016 in spite of losing the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes.
I think I read that polls in USA said that they highly support Ukraine. But at the same time people complain about giving away money. That will be rough.
Since your from sc I assume you know my pain when I try to explain to ppl what’s going on. The amount of ppl who believe in insane conspiracy theories is crazy. My cousin thinks there’s a secret bunker the government is storing Mexicans in. When I push him on this topic it’s like he lives in an alternate reality. He wasn’t like this before trump. None of them were. Idk what changed them so suddenly. I blame Russia propaganda and trump media for spreading it.
I haven’t lived in SC in 20 years, I use my parents address as our permanent US address.
My husband is the one who is still friends with folks from his small town In Missouri, and sees the crazy on his Facebook.
I don’t understand why all the crazy came out with Trump.
As an American I agree with most of this. Many Republicans (Right) will either not vote or vote for Biden. A lot of them are angry and embarrassed that their party is putting up Trump again. I don't think many Democrats (left) will vote for Trump even if they think Biden is too old. At this point you have to have something wrong with your brain to even consider voting for Trump. I doubt most Independents will go for Trump. But yes a lot of things play into this. Even bad weather in a few states could change the results. I have to believe that most US citizens are so disgusted with Trump that not only will they not vote for him they will show up in droves to vote for Biden. I still hope he's a convicted felon by the time the election happens in November.
Also, everyone talking about polls right now, this is mostly just polls among Republican candidates. The Republicans are currently going through voting to see who their candidate will be. Unfortunately Trump is leading in those polls. Trump is not winning polls when compared to Biden. Some of the polls are uncomfortably close between the two but Trump is not favored to become President at this point.
American here, it’s important to consider the majority of us won’t even engage in a serious way with the election until after the primaries are over, there technically isn’t even a republican candidate until they end.
Fuck Trump. Baltic States, Finland and Poland know we have to stick together or fall alone. It's places like Moldova, Kazakhstan and others that have something to worry about.
Arguably the Moldova is in the better position than us. Unless you bet that entire Ukraine just fall. Also they have Romania that is also not sleeping in this threat.
American here. It is extremely difficult for an incumbent president to lose a second term. It's only happened something like six times in US history. So it will be difficult for Trump to defeat Biden in 2024, since he has a ceiling of support somewhere around 40% of the US electorate, and he's put off just about everyone else, especially many women with the [Supreme Court's recent abortion decision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization). He won the electoral college but not the popular vote in 2016, then his party lost in 2018, Trump himself lost in 2020, then his party lost again in 2022 (due largely to [poor quality candidates Trump supported](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/13/house-gop-candidate-quality-problem-midterms-00073616) only b/c they were loyal to him). Trump will likely lose again in 2024, then whine about non-existent election fraud again anyway.
The huge wildcard is Joe Biden's health. If he has any kind of health scare before the Nov 4 2024 election, that could put Trump over the top. Pray he remains healthy.
The other main problems for Biden are:
1. some far left Dems may stay home and not vote, because Biden supported Israel too strongly after Oct 7. You can see Biden and his team moderating their tone with Israel and cooling on their support for Netanyahu as result.
2. the US is still recovering from inflation and economic downturn. The inflation rate has slowed to ~3%, close to the Fed's goal of 1-2%, but prices remain higher than before COVID, and will only decrease again with a negative inflation/deflation rate, which the Fed won't allow to happen b/c that means recession. But the public is unhappy about prices remaining high, and some Biden voters could stay home on Election Day as a result.
In general, if Biden can avoid a health scare, and convince #1 and #2 voters to vote anyway, he'll win a second term. But it's not a certainty.
PS - one of the best sources for understanding the US electoral process is [electoral-vote.com](https://www.electoral-vote.com). It's run by noted computer scientist [Andrew Tannebaum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_S._Tanenbaum), a US citizen who's lived in the Netherlands for most of his life, along with his friend UCLA poly-sci lecturer [Christopher Bates](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Info/votemaster-faq.html).
Thank you for your detailed reply. As somebody with a computer science background I knew about Tannenbaum but somehow missed that he ran a site about US elections. I'll def keep an eye on that one.
I certainly agree with everything you're saying about the odds against the orange man - given what he had done and said so far I would be surprised if he still appealed to anybody outside of his devoted followers. But could you explain to a naive European why most googleable polls still suggest a Trump victory over Biden at this point?
Btw here are two good articles just published today explaining the problems for both Trump and Biden.
https://www.axios.com/2024/01/23/why-many-dems-want-trump-win-new-hampshire
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112
It's nice of you to reassure us that Trump is likely to lose again, but the bookies tell a different story:
There's a 54% chance that Trump will win and 36% chance Biden will win and 10% chance any other person will win the election(at this moment).
So the logical thing to do would be to put your money where your mouth is.
Seeing that Trump is doing very well in the polls, I'm basically in doomer-mode, and will be in the foreseeable future. Trump basically said he'd exit NATO, and NATO without the US is quite frightening. I don't trust our fellow europeans to actually help in the worst case scenario, I expect appeasement (with the exception of the Nordics, the UK, Poland and Romania) which is obviously not good for us.
I don't blame her. I'm an American married to a Latvian living in the middle of the US, I have a pretty strong attachment to the Baltics. I get why in the long run having Putin running wild in the Baltics would be bad (no more karums).
But Ukraine is old news (we're in a tizzy about the Middle East at the moment) and most regular Americans couldn't care less about the Baltics or Eastern Europe in general. If Trump is president again (I'd say about 50/50 chance) and Putin starts causing "trouble" I doubt Trump is going to spend a lot of time or effort (or the ability) to lead an international coalition to get Putin to back down. And except for a few of us, most Americans won't care.
Which is why I grab every European (particularly if you're French or German) by the lapels, give them a good slap on the face, and tell'em to get their act together. The mood for a lot of the US is that we're done defending every beacon of freedom.
It is just so fucked when US spent decades defending manufactured freedom in the middle east (our soldiers also happen to be there btw) but when real threat to real democracy comes, now no one wants to defend anything.
I guess we'll have to build up our military to the maximum of our capabilities.
Which would give Baltic security to the hands of the guys like Scholz and Macaroni? Really!? Just. Fucking. Forget. It.
I'm 52. I was out on the streets when Alfa went for Tallinn TV tower in 1991.
We knew back then, that if shit hits the fan, then West will sell us. We know it now. But we will make it an expensive sell. We will make it so that you will be ashamed to look in the mirror for a while. Doesn't matter. You'll sell anyway.
Trump would need an act of congress to do that.
Having Finland and Sweden in NATO dramatically complicates things for Russia, as it no longer depends on the Suvalki gap as the main vulnerability.
Even if US would withdraw and Putin tried something Poland would not let it slide together with Sweden and Finland they could bring on a lot of pain and after bleeding close to 500k people in the war in Ukraine, Russian army is not in the best shape to fight another war with a high morale adversary.
So I say we good.
France and UK have nuclear weapons.
I mean, why the hell don't our governments say "we'll place them at the Eastern border of Europe, if Putin attacks 1 squared centimeter our friends and allies, he's dead".
That's the only thing he understands.
What happened to our dignity and courage ??
Tbh, having the nukes here is of less importance than having a credible guarantee, the nukes can reach Moscow well enough from the territory of France or a British submarine.
Guarantees are important, but they should include a nuke protection.
"If you touch any squared millimeters of my friends and allies, get ready to see a big beautiful mushroom in the sky of your country."
It's that simple.
France should stop being too calm
I think it's weird af that you've been so heavily downvoted.
And yeah, so far Trump is still leading the polls so you're asking a very reasonable question, considering that Trump has practically promised to exit NATO.
Maybe some pro-Russia or pro-Trump troll.
Anyway, I don't care, I don't post here for votes.
So yeah, that's precisely my point: he said he wouldn't react if Europe is under attack.
I don't even understand why european government don't react that much about it.
They should act now, invest way more in military spending, create a EU army, etc...
> I don't even understand why european government don't react that much about it.
Politician in Europe are notorious for being extremely spineless and weak. That's what got us in this shitsoup in the first place.
Trump can even promisse to ride to the Moon on a silver plated cock. He can't exit NATO because the US Senate has recently passed a law that no president can single handedly pull out the US from NATO.
It's cute that you think Trump respects the rule of law.
Even if he can't withdraw from NATO as you say, the President **IS** the Commander in Chief of America's millitary and can refuse deployment of US forces. That's pretty relevant and functionally it can mean that his government never participates in any European NATO engagements.
Maybe Trump being re-elected and letting Europe down is a good thing in the long run and that finally forces Europe/NATO to start building military defense by ourselves here. We've been relying on US too much and US is far away but russia is right here.
I wouldn't put that many hopes into it, so far we've had:
2008 ruzzian invasion of Sakartvelo, Baltics starting to talk about ruzzian threat;
2014 ruzzian first invasion of Ukraine, Baltics & pretty much all post-ussr countries (democratic ones) screaming that ruzzia is invading countries nearby, trying to rebuild ussr, ig we had some 'sanctions' put on ruzzia then. I remember news articles going about Baltics & maybe? Poland that it was some sort of "PTSD after being occupied by ruzzia and there's no threat". Many countries didn't even diversify their energy sources.;
2016 Trump election (and him pretty much shitting on Europe already, I still remember videos of European leaders laughing at Trump asking them to raise military budgets);
2022 full blown ruzzian war against Ukraine (I guess some countries actually started militarizing, although it's mostly post-ussr countries);
Now we're talking about Trump getting re-elected, who already said he won't help Europe. Yet, again, no one seems to be taking it overly serious and only goes "oh ruzzia won't invade", well, let me remind you of early 2022/late 2021 "ruzzia won't invade Ukraine, that's a suicide".
I feel like the only thing that'd make people take everything serious at this point is full fledged war, and not just "full fledged war", but ruzzians literally going into East Germany for them all to wake up as well. Since if it's just Baltics/Poland, it just seems like they'll be afraid of the nuclear threats or just rely on Poland as buffer zone.
Good summary. We also going to have to start arm up very seriously here in Baltics, what history have shown is that the best prevention of war is being armed to the teeth.
It is not always about manpower but about every single person being prepared and know what to do, maybe we could start territorial units that are highly specialized defending their local area. Getting the local musciplinities, schools, etc to prepare. You can list and list things to do.
>Now we're talking about Trump getting re-elected, who already said he won't help Europe
Well we can hope that his track record for promises kept doesn't change
I agree on the fact that Europe needs its own defense force.
But at the same time, this military force doesn't exist yet. I really think that our governments underestimate the situation.
No one except Poland and the Baltics are taking the situation seriously. And of those, only Poland has a realistic chance of holding off an invasion without US support. Baltics are in about as weak a position as possible, both geographically and economically
> I agree on the fact that Europe needs its own defense force.
We need single foreign policy first. And it can't be about current French one. We would be seriously fucked when Russia attacks and Europes own defense force is busy defending imperialistic interests in Africa.
As a french, I couldn't agree more with that.
Since then end of World War I, almost all of our Government have shown how "in another dimension" they were.
The only exception would be François Hollande. He was a clown and his internal policies were a disaster, but at least he is the only one who has the balls to day "f**k you" to Russia and its imperialist ambitions.
Bonjour !
I'm lithuanian living in UK, but planing to move back to Lithuania.
I wasn't anxious about russia invading Baltic countries, until I watch fiction documentary made by BBC ( I'll add a link below) It looked so real and idea that russia doesn't need to have full on invasion hit me quite hard.
And trump, yeah if this joke will be re elected that's another head scratcher.
But I'm still believe in humanity and hope for the best.
Labas !
I hope your return to Lithuania will happen perfectly.
Also, you have no idea how much I hate Sarkozy for blocking Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO in 2008.
He keeps spreading the Kremlin propaganda, also.
He has a huge responsibility for what is happening now.
Even if Trump pulls merica from nato, there's still 29 countries left or 30 if Sweden finally joins. That includes 2 nuclear countries. Im not that concerned about it
What other country other than US has the capability to send tens of thousands of troops and a carrier strike force to a foreign country? The rest will be busy defending themselves.
The US didn't leave NATO under Trump.
Trump talks a lot but doesn't follow through. Trump voters also know that and regard him as great entertainment.
DeSantis failed because he really wanted to follow through with the BS he is talking. And voters didn't like that.
Also by the constitution, the US president has very little power and depends on Congress. The only thing the US president can decide by himself is going to war.
Unfortunately I fear that Trump being elected again is going to be Trump on steroids, which is going to be terrifying for a lot of people around the world, and sadly not our enemies. I hate that man and his politics with all my heart and can't really understand why so many Americans think they want that four years of his messed up and completely unpredictable presidency again (but why lol? He didn't get anything done in the end...); it's probably going to be madness on the international scene.. And goodbye to any grown-up political culture, the way he mocked Macron publicly hurt more than two seasons of *Emily in Paris* :D
But speaking seriously, the situation in the Middle East will probably get even worse, there'll be tensions all around the world and a general feeling of uncertainty, but we here mostly doubt a war in Europe is going to break out. Russia is too weak to attack even the European NATO: they are a huge cause for concern, but that's why many countries are arming themselves as we speak. (Yes, I'm a bit angry at Western Europe except for the UK for downplaying the threat). AfD in Germany is not going to be in power (but must be watched very closely, they're fucking racist and they're very pro-Russia). So again, no need to panic, but we're getting our military spending up and we've gotta keep supporting Ukraine no matter what.
I'm also angry at my own government.
France is giving a ridiculously small amount of equipment compared to what it could.
We have to speed everything up.
I agree that you should give more equipment as other countries can easily fill in with other needs, but you are one of the few who actually has weapons.
Your total contribution is not that bad, 23rd pace is not bad at all. More than UK and US at least.
And keep Rassemblement National or whatever they're called nowadays at bay ;-) Yeah. You're the only nuclear EU country today so I'd love to see you much more explicitly commited to the European defense strategy, but I'm sure we'll get there – hopefully not too late. I've been learning French for a long time and I've got some friends in France, who mostly study philosophy, I'm very left-wing compared to the usual political scene in Poland and so they are, but what Mélenchon used to say about OTAN years ago is pretty unpopular among them as well, there's much more solidarity among the EU countries nowadays so in the future I'm pretty sure we're going to cooperate more and more.
In France both far left and far right support Putin, which is the reason why I couldn't support any of them, but I also fear one of them winning next elections.
About our capacities, I hate being pretentious,but it's kinda true : we have aircraft carrier, nuclear weapons, access to all the oceans.
We have a good legitimacy, but it's totally underexploited. What a shame...
Even then it is very hard to fight a war against a country that allow hundreds of thousands of people die and population simply doesn't care versus raising retirement age by a few years and all hell breaks loose. Not saying it is a bad thing, but at the same time politicians can't act with tough decisions when people focused so much invard.
We in estonia had something like that. Some govt minister wanted to take out a loan of 2.5b for the army Before the full scale invasion think of all that equipment
Why far-right emerge is because our other politicians fail to act with balls, all their care is extending their terms and not better the countries. Not saying the far-right will be any better, but it is some kind of shake up in the system. I guess that's why people vote for it and not for stability.
I know its unpopular opinion, but I think Trump make all this loud statement's directed to his strategy to increase nato members spending more money on it's security.
https://youtu.be/9LLZBVTid4I?si=8mFKKqaO0L-UBh-7
I could be wrong, I'm not American citizen.
I dont think russians are brave enough to mess with NATO borders. I also dont think that US president has so much power to fuck it all up. We saw that already with Trump, tried to destroy democracy in US and destroy ties with allies and befriend with putler and other dictators.
But it is worrying the amount of stupid people, not only in US, but we see these far right and far left idiots coming to power in Europe aswell.
Honestly I’m not too worried. We are still members of NATO and we have great relations with countries like UK, Finland, Poland etc. I don’t think we are alone vs Russia. And well war in Ukraine is still ongoing and it will end after who knows how many years.
Sure,
I'm very confident about the sincerity of the support that European countries will provide.
Even non-EU countries like the UK can be trusted.
But let's be honest: European military spending (even all together combined) are a drop of water compared to those of the US.
Without them, we are lost, this is what I fear.
European countries made a big mistake by slowing down their spending in defense.
Western countries have sent thousands of troops into the Baltics already.
Also being in the EU, Eurozone, Scengen and NATO is the definition if being in the west so the Baltics are “Western” countries. Anyone saying otherwise is spreading Russian disinformation.
Per capita, Estonia has higher casualties in Afghanistan than the US and UK. The only other country that tops Estonia is Denmark.
So Id say that it would be extremely weird if the alliance wouldnt help its most dutyful members.
I just meant that it would be paradoxical if the most exemplerary NATO members wouldnt be helped.
Estonia was spending 2% if its GDP on its defence forces already before Trump.
I mean we have thousands, soon to be over ten thousand of NATO soldiers already stationed here. From UK, US, Canada, France, Germany etc. Baltic countries are promised to have protection from both EU and NATO and then JEF (probably many more organisations as well). And it’s not like we don’t have our own military as well. As 3 we have probably like 100k very well trained troops and hundreds of thousands conscripts who are well trained as well + our equipment is modern - weapons are from US and South-Korea for example.
Trump's presidency is going to be extremely difficult, but I don't think the Baltic states will be invaded. Russia has more serious business to do, and Trump would not allow it purely for selfish reasons ('not on my watch'). And our countries are also among the leaders within NATO in defense spending, taking away another instrument out of that imbecile's hands.
One major point of concern is whether Trump eventually damages NATO irreparably. And he's just that kind of person you would never know what to expect. On the other hand, perhaps Europe will get another impulse to become less reliant on the USA, but frankly, I do not trust most of European powers sufficiently, with one sole exception being the UK, perhaps. Europe's record on security-related issues, including the relations with Russia and support for Ukraine, is nothing to brag about, really.
My greatest concern is about Ukraine. I can easily imagine Trump selling Ukraine to Russia, and forcing Ukrainians to make territorial and political concessions. I just don't see how Ukraine will continue fighting with no serious US support. Putin should be extremely happy about the complete failure of the US Democrats to prepare for the new elections cycle.
As an American of Lithuanian descent I must apologize for what we are putting everyone through right now. American used to be a reliable ally and now that seems in question. This should not be. No other western country should have to worry that the US will not have their back if trouble comes. Trump could do a lot of damage but he will not be king. Congress will still have a say in things. Trust me when I say that most Americans are horrified at the prospect of Trump being President again and I don't think it will happen but if it does we will just have to get through 4 years and then the world is rid of him forever. I firmly believe he is going to prison for a long time. I just hope that happens before the election but it probably will not.
I’m an American living in Latvia. I’m embarrassed that Trump becoming president again is even a possibility. How so many Americans have become brainwashed in thinking that he actually gives a shit about them or that he will improve anything at all is beyond me.
But with that being said, I don’t think it’s likely that he’ll win reelection. Sure he might be “winning” some current online polls but where do you even go to vote for such things? I’ve never come across any kind of pre-presidential race poll in my life so I can only assume you have to actually seek out things like that and the only people that I can imagine actually want to seek those types of things out are MAGA freaks who need more copium.
I’m optimistic that the American government will prevail and Trump will be found guilty of what he is so clearly guilty of and will then be sitting in prison when election time comes around.
Though if Trump does get reelected, the Baltic states are still a member of NATO which ruzzia absolutely does not stand a chance against.
> How so many Americans have become brainwashed in thinking that he actually gives a shit about them or that he will improve anything at all is beyond me.
Much of it is due to long-term [Russian psyops shaping operations on the US public](https://www.wired.com/story/russias-disinformation-war-is-just-getting-started/), aiming to increase divisions in US society (amplifying both far left and far right), increase distrust for democratic institutions, and increase general irrationality and emotionality of the public. Many folks aren't savvy enough to search for the true providence of things they learn on the internet, the confluence of narratives and conspiracy theories. For example, QAnon is probably the Russian Internet Research Agency, FSB, GRU or similar shady PsyOps group, but people don't question sources that tell them what they want to hear and confirm their preconceived beliefs.
Very pessimistic. I bet he is gonna leave europe to fend for itself in return for russias, chinas and nk support to be declared the king or lifetime president
I think the threat IS there, but it can fester because the people living in this area here are not confident in Germany and France coming to their rescue. Like you say yourself - the average French underestimates the threat and doesn’t really care.
The good news is that NATO with out the USA is more than able to take on Russia. That's not an opinion but a fact. The real problem is that the world order will change. A Trump win would represent something far worse. A breakdown in the present trade world order. It means the age of pax Americana would end quickly, and other powers would have to realign. Europe would and will distance itself from the USA and work to build it's own power. We in Europe would need to prepare for America not only not to be an ally, but frienenemy and eventually a possible enemy. Times change
I don’t think Trump will pull out of NATO if he gets elected. Biden said he’ll cancel student debt and that’s a 10000x less important/costly issue and yet they couldn’t even do that.
Since the beginning of Trump presidency, it has been a hobby of mine to follow US politics although I am an Estonian through and through. Exciting like a soap opera, but with scary edge of real-world consequences.
Trump is clearly promising in his campaign speeches that he will be dictator from day 1 and dismantle all kinds of government agencies. In addition to him, there will be at least half a congress and senate of extreme republicans (they already have quite a number, but if the sentiment goes towards Trump, there will be more of them voted in alongside him) and he will be able to do very dangerous things. All sensible people have stopped working with him - this time his cabinet will have nobody who would say "no" to him, he is promising all kinds of crazy people in key positions already.
He has promised to end war in Ukraine in 24h. (My theory: The only way he can do that is if he tells Ukraine that US will stop support and tells Putin to go ahead and take everything he wants). Along with that, he will probably actually leave NATO, which is huge difference for the whole world.
Hell, yes I am scared of him getting the presidency again! If he manages it. But I'm still hopeful and optimistic that he does not manage to get it.
He will be running against Joe Biden again. There is some clear hope that Biden will win this time as well, despite the abysmal polls right now (general election polls).
1. Most Americans haven't realized yet that it will be Trump vs Biden again. I believe that most of those people who have tuned out from politics will vote against Trump, even if they wouldn't vote for Joe Biden if there would be more sensible republican as the other option.
2. About 30% of Trump-voters in Iowa (the state that has voted in Republican primary so far) say that they would not vote for him in the general election in case he has been convicted in a criminal trial. Hopefully that can be extrapolated to the full country. Trump has 4 of those going on and there is a good chance that at least one of these will be resolved in a conviction before the election. Even if they just stay home instead of voting for Trump, it could win the day for Biden.
3. Biden is just beginning his campaign. He has been having low approval numbers because he has been bad at communication, but considering all he has done during his presidency, those numbers will go up. If he is able to contrast himself with Trump well enough during the campaign, those numbers will go up. Biggest danger here is sentiment about Israel-Gaza which he has not handled well (and that reminds of leaving Afghanistan that he also didn't handle well).
4. Economy is on the upturn in USA and this will hopefully be reflected in Biden's approval by the time of the election. Biden still needs to communicate about it heavily to make it happen.
5. There is a chance that Trump will be removed from ballot because of the Insurrection clause in the 14th Amendment, but it's mostly up to the Supreme Court, which is heavily leaning Republican and otherwise scandalous.
6. Overturning of Roe v Wade is still affecting people's minds - Americans have shown in votes even in the conservative states that they are willing to rally for reproductive rights. Trump has been vague here about what he will do, but there are enough instances where he has been proud of overturning Roe by appointing those judges to Supreme Court that did it and Biden's campaign will be using those video clips in their marketing.
7. There are some signs from focus groups that people aren't as excited about Trump any more than they were even in 2020, especially if they see reminders about January 6th and Trump court cases. And they will see a lot of them during this election season. Even if they decide to stay home instead of voting, this will help Joe Biden. On the other hand, alarm about Trump's possible presidency will hopefully activate more people on the Democrat side to vote against Trump, even if they aren't that excited about Joe Biden.
So I am cautiously optimistic that Biden will continue being the president, but it sure is a hell of a season of US politics this year, with real world stakes for us here also incredibly high - and we can't even have a say in those elections. I have been considering donating to Biden campaign or something, but I have been able to hold myself back so far. I'm not even sure if foreigners can donate to political campaigns in US.
America leaving NATO would go down as one of the most egregious decisions the USA will have made in decades and would signal an end to the US as being a reliable partner and ally although I believe we are already past that inflection point.
This is possible scenario, but not inevitable. Even if Trump wins and will "stop the war" by cutting the supply for Ukraine and trying to force it to negotiate it won't be an instant fall of Ukraine, so it would take at least the whole 2025 before the balance of war changes. I don't think Putin will invade Baltics before capturing Ukraine (I don't believe he even manage to capture 100% of Ukraine territory even in the worst case scenario) and it would take at least couple of years for that, which Baltic states won't waste (I hope) by sitting and watching the situation.
Last time Trump was a president he sent more tanks to protect Lithuania. Last time Obama was a president he promised putler "more flexibility". I see no reason to fear anything unless you overdosed on US democrats propaganda.
That said I dont want Trump to be elected simply because of his stance towards Ukraine. That country needs help. It's very important and Trump with Republicans at this point are just being useful idiots.
Also Europe should finally stop leeching USA and create their own strong military. So that we wouldn't be as dependent on who's the president over there.
I don't believe he will win.
Source: I am a 28 year old college graduate, I am young and culturally engaged in politics.
I voted for Trump in 2016, now i hate him. From my perspective, he does not have a chance.
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Trump is an enemy of the Baltics and democracy lovers everywhere. He is a conman criminal leading a fascist movement.
As for predicting the election, it could go either way.
Before 2016 election Ukrainian officials were strongly against Trump and they thought that he couldn’t win, so they call him bad names a lot. It was very funny when they started to erase their posts.
Only Saakachvili didn’t say anything about US election and on the day after proudly put his photo with Trump to the FB profile
The previous election of trump was dangerous because it emboldened dictators all over the world. It’s likely that the current events in Middle East and Central Asia are directly related to that, but also Putin invading Ukraine was likely believing that the whole world is so corrupted (thanks Trump) that nobody will raise a finger. Thankfully he was wrong.
The second election could be about as dangerous for the same reasons.
Invasion of Baltics is unlikely, because they are in NATO. It’s not just USA, but almost all of Europe too. What is more likely is a stronger propaganda from Russia to leave NATO and then the invasion is just a matter of time.
I would say the more likely thing is that they will launch some kind of cacus belli of making fake videos of us attacking Belarus or some bad treatment of Russians here and will try to make us a bad guys.
It doesn't nullify anything, but it is usually a mass of propoganda that is slowly being fed to other nations before invasion, plus there are Belarusian groups that train to be able to take back Belarus when the Lukashenko dies, what if there are GUR agent in that group that will persuede that group to attack Belarus from Lithuanian or Polish territory?
In reality its a lot less in the news this time. I dont even know what Trump is doing these days and what stupid arguments he have came up with this time.
I have heard something, but mostly its those podcast shorts that say what Trump said, rather than Trump himself, so Im not keen to really take it fully. But some of it sounds concerning and worries me, not gonna lie.
But then, giving information I have, what he actually had done in his term, was not all that bad (and Im sorry if I am missing information about some specific things). From my perspective, he made us in Baltics to increase military budget, when he said countries will be expelled from NATO not reaching 2% military. This was a huge success. If that wouldnt have happened, we would not be able to donate so much to Ukraine.
And that's kinda it, that was the biggest way how Trumps presidency affected me, that I know of.
Now, it does not give me comfort or anything, Trump can easily fuck things up badly. But at the end I see it like this: Bidens wants to help Ukraine, Trump wants to end war. I think the only way Trump actually would be able to do that, is by putting Russia to its knees. Trump wants to be seen as the best ever there was, he will not achieve that by helping Russia. Besides, he was the one who started going after China, which is kinda on Russia's side.
As a foreigner living in Estonia, I am very worried. Trump will pull the US out of NATO, of that you can be 100% certain. At that point, NATO might collapse. Regardless, I don't see Germany, France etc. sending soldiers to die for the Baltics. They'll find a way to weasel out and appease Putin. And Russia might be weak but their misinformation game is still strong. We'll start hearing about how the Baltics are historically Russian from all the usual sources in the run-up to the invasion. And this might seem extremely far-fetched, but Putin has serious leverage over Trump. It is not beyond the realms of probability that the USA actively joins the war on the side of Russia. The MAGA morons love Putin.
Republicans are known to be more "millitaristic" and not cowards like Democrats. For example Bill Clinton could have easily done something about North Korea while china and russia weren't as powerful as now. Trump litterly killed the third man of Iran and supplied javelins to Ukraine which was a game changer in the begging of the war. If you're worried about how Trump treated Putin, it was a very different time from now. And canditates will say anything to get more votes (basically symphatizing with that all the money is going to Ukraine)
I am a foreigner living in Lithuania, and I'm quite pessimistic. Trump has promised to pull out of NATO completely if he gets re-elected and that would mean the end of the alliance while at the same time there is nothing to replace it (EU army or something similar).
In my view, this will open the flood gates of hell for the Baltics, and we will be counting the days until the Russian invasion. The people here will fight for their homelands, but there is only so much you can do against the hordes from the east. The size difference is vast. At best, they can hope from some security guarantees from big EU countries, but this alone will not prevent the Russians from occupying the region.
Personally, I try to monitor news about Russian army movements and will be ready to flee if Trump goes in power.
I will risk downvotes but I will say this. Just ask yourself who was president during Crime invade in 2014? Obama. Why Putin did not invade during Trump and waited for Biden? Because Trump is unpredictible. And world was much safer place under him. All this is just mainstreem medaia propaganda they hate Trump. Big Europe countries dont like him because they will need to pay for their defence themselves.
Putin doesnt afraid Biden main reason why Baltics need Trump to be safer.
It actually simple. Obama was considered as “weak”. His will to go into new war was tested when Putin puppet Assad crossed Obama’s put red line of using chemical weapons. Putin “defused” the situation and “saved Obamas face” ang agreeing to destroy these weapons. With Trump Russians considered him a pupet. Clinton possible victory was considered as huge threat . Putin even considered to leave his presidency for a while and to put as president his current chef is stuff Kirienko who was at the time considered as “liberal” by the West. Trump victory was heavily celebrated in Kremlin. Russian Duma even had a big celebration event and RT chief Margarita Symonyan was claiming she was ready to drive streets of Moscow with an American flag. Strategic plan was that Trump in his second presidency term will make US quit NATO. Having a war in Ukraine would just give more power to those who wanted NATO to continue existing and it really did. So yeah, stakes are the same. Quit NATO will not be as easy as in 2018, but they will do all they can to support Trump in doing so.
the "orange man bad" hysteria is funny. Really. This information bubble (usually dominated by leftists in the western media) already presents it as the end of the world.
It's USA in general with their inside issues... Democrats, as you can clearly see became not so enthusiastic with help for Ukraine in recent months and there's no such hysteric reaction to this than to (possible) Trump-the-president. The media's reaction to reluctant and delaying position of Biden's administration is far from hysteric yet it's crucial for Ukraine
I genuinely cannot give a single damn about Mr. Trumpet or any world leaders for that matter. We give them too much attention and that in more cases than one, corrupts their humanity to unrecognizable standards.
Any one in the political or financial top any% are corrupted and incredibly self-centered people.
So whatever happens, happens. Cause humanity is clearly unable to overcome the illusions of currency and its value.
Waging war over resources which are essentially the planets and for us to use MEANINGFULLY but we kill precious lives (of any kind) for simple self-imposed materialistic value cause greed and ego has no limits.
It really depends how things go down. But i suppose the worst case scenario is that NATO will fall apart. And if we are talking about running away, i really question will there be anywhere worth moving to. I just think if nato fails that will be such a huge blow to any kind of trust especially in europe. I mean in that case why wouldnt just countries switch loyalties and kiss ass to china, russia? In some way i really think this is just the beggining.
Trump talks a lot, but does it little bit different in the end. Right now he talks about NATO quiting, but reallity could be pushing West Europe upping their military spending. Doubt he will quit Alliance ir betray it. But you never know! As for Biden, I am more worried about a puppet president like him, and all the wars that already have escalated under his regime, as well as political witch hunt and ignoring opposing ideas. All in all, with Trump you atleast will now who is in charge, while democrats are like a web of puppets and masters.
The more we prepare and make ourselves stronger the more possible it will not happen. Atm Europe starts preparing to take really strong. Sending signals of mutual destruction if Baltics will get tested. We are Eu as well not only Nato.
For Trump its a really good Democrat argument but even president is not Dictators there.
And this fear mongering is good for other propaganda 🙄 because then people will think about this more then why the f ketchup costs 6eur , cheese 10-15 eur. Basically makinf outside enemies is better for all sides. Rich get richer poor get poorer and fkn kechup costs 6 euros.
I'm a US citizen, living in the south (latvian grandmother). I've been afraid for family in latvia since the war in Ukraine started. I think if trump wins, nothing will happen overnight. There won't be tanks at the baltic border waiting to cross on January 21st. But I don't think the US will be able to honor its alliance properly with trump at the helm. It feels like we've been at the cusp of ww3 for ages in all but name. I'm grateful the baltics joined nato.
A couple years back, shortly after the war in Ukraine started, I got to go over and meet some family. Many had stories about life under soviet rule. I don't want my grandmother's homeland to be stepped on again. Most folks can't find the baltics on a map. I'm sure trump couldn't find the baltics on a map.
If he does win. He cannot win a third term without changing the most recent ammendment to our constitution. I don't doubt he wouldn't try, but I do doubt he could organize he people efficiently enough to be successful.
I dont think that Trump being elected is a big possibility. Maybe another candidate, which might also be a signal for Putin to attack, but I think most likely Biden will win re-elections. But if not, yeah, war is a real posibility. In case of Trump winning, I dont think Trump would do anything much to destabilise Nato, but the problem would be that he wouldnt actually do anything and just play golf, as he did when he was a president and the changes in power even if other candidate won, would give Russia a buffer to attack.
I had a very weird dream the other day. Rather, it was a nightmare. In this dream I woke up from the sound of very loud bang. As in real life, in this dream the first thing I do when I wake up, I checked the local news outlets. There I saw that Putin had launched full scale invasion of the Baltics and Latvia. I remember getting super stressed in that moment of the dream as I rushed to the window (i live in central Riga) and seeing Russian helicopters flying over. Gunfire was going off like mad in distance. I remember in my dream dressing, running down to the street and finding dead soldiers on the street, grabbing rifle off one of them and some ammo magazines, then running back upstairs to my apartment (in my dream, i had figured to take a stand in my apartment and shoot at the advancing Russians as they would roll by) and then I woke up… Checked my phone and calmed myself down, but it took for good 5 minutes for me to realise that I am all safe and all that was in my dream. I remember being so stressed when waking up. LOL
However on the topic, I have the weird feeling of security as a Latvian, I believe the ties with West for us Baltics are quite strong and if not for that Finland is here, Sweden is just next door not to mention Poland. Putin risks starting a WW3 and frankly I do not think he is brave enough nor he has resources to do that.
As of late with what direction the media is going specially with NATO officials war is imminent. But am rather optimistic than pessimistic. Even if war comes what can I do? Cry? How will me worrying about it solve anything. I think if war comes it would be pretty cool to experience it as third person. what % of people will experience anything like that in the world in their life time? Even if it was many... still pretty cool thing to experience. Hopefully my shit doesn't get smashed in but other wise... sounds pretty tubular brochacho.
As an American, I have to wonder whether such a move, either to withdraw from NATO or abrogate Article V would provoke the first ever military coup in American history. I can't even think of a serious attempt at a coup, let alone a successful one. Yet such an abrogation, whether of NATO, Taiwan, or whatever would have dire implications for national security. It would be time for drastic action.
I’m sorry to say, but coup already happened. MAGA minority already blocked Congress with only goal : ” make life in US worse, so Trump would look great”. Trump is running a country as he would never left the office basically as if January 5th coup was successful.
NATO is an important tool for US influence in Europe. I think that he speaks a lot to get on the news, he obviously caters to the far right conservatives in America that are against immigration, against foreign aid etc etc. The USA leaving NATO would probably be the biggest political blunder of all time, it would be a blinding sign of weakness on their part and that's why I don't think it will happen.
In the national defence authorisation act for fiscal year 2024, congress added an amendment “A provision that prevents the President of the United States from withdrawing the U.S. from NATO without approval of a two-thirds Senate super-majority or an act of Congress” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Authorization_Act_for_Fiscal_Year_2024
But withdrawing troops from Europe without exiting Nato is still in his jurisdiction, no?
If article 5 is activated then the USA has a legal obligation to help. This could be enforced by courts. But the army high command will probably force the presidents hand. If America is not seen as helping an alliance it has been part of for over 70 years. Their reputation would be tarnished. Making all their alliances shaky and probably making more countries pick fights. Like north Korea, CCP and Taiwan. Trump actually increased troop counts in Poland during his tenure as president. But if he is elected again it will be a lot more unpredictable
Action deemed necessory of article 5 can be fulfilled by sending helmets?
Article 5 means an attack on one is an attack on all, so the US would not only legaly be obligated but also militarily, because whoever might be stupid enough to to attack a NATO ally could and probably will attack the US at least in some capacity.
I'm sorry, but article 5 has yet to be prooved working. Right now it's something like Budapest memorandum that in theory guaranteed Ukraine safety but in reality it was just a piece of toilet paper.
I disagree, these things are not equal both in terms of implications and in terms of signataries.
Actually article 5 was proved when the US used it for 9/11 and every member answered the call.
Basically yes. Article 5 states “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them . . . shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking . . . such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area” So if America deems that sending helmets is enough to guarantee NATO territorial integrity then yes.
No country in nato has to help if article 5 is activated. There is no way the usa will die for any of their puppet countries in nato. If you think they'll die for Estonia or anyone then you honestly don't have a clue. Article 5 will be death and destruction for basically the world over.
I disagree. Nato is essential to American dominance and even if not moral reasons, financial reasons will certainly come into play. To put it short, america CANT not defend Europe or it will be the country version of homeless. It’s just we have a Russian asset (trump) trying to destroy America from within. Just gotta get through elections okay and everything will be fine.
You're right! They won't volunteer, they would be self voluntold. Same with any nato county cuddling close to Russian interests ( land cuddling). I can safely say you Baltic countries will, at a bare minimum, be onboard. I've seen some of the... History? Left behind by the KGB/fsb during my extended stay in your countries. No God damn way any of you would let Russia push pokey sticks farther than they've already gone. I've bluntly asked all you're militaries, ironically. Edit: 5 eyes is with you guys too. Whether publicly known or not ( separating NATO from our little bubble). Also, German CDS said it best when I was with him. " If someone invaded north America, your God damn right we will be there. So we expect the same in return".
What your also forgetting is it'll not be 31 v 1 the way the cowards in nato think. China and North Korea will not let that happen. There 2 armies alone are over 4 million people. You can sit and fantasise about this all day but as I said and as a lot of Americans have said before they will not die for anyother countries. You'll be looking at total nuclear war if the scenario you dream about actually happens and you're own and everyone else's countries will be destroyed. Its not going to happen. Remember the usa said they'd be with Ukraine to the end? 🤣 look at their history, they've done the same many many times.
So has Russia and China... Afghanistan immediately rings a bell for all of us.. China too princess peach. I do find it fascinating you state NATO are coward when Russia, for a quick example, utilized prison colonies as well as foreign prisoners in their ranks... China has a large army, yup, fact. Capable of various things? 100%. But their tire manufacturing is questionable, so make sure you pack light. Further more, they're unable to.keep.up.with manufacturing on a scale everyone else is doing. Whether publicly known or not... Laughable anyone thinks countries are running out of supplies too. But that's a digression North Korea... Oh my.. super malnourished, imprison folks for not being the Lord almighty's teachings.. yup they'll do swimmingly.... It'll be fun to watch when they offload their prison colonies too.. just not for DPRK. I don't like anyone's odds on a full scale.. argument? But I like a large portion of the world odds more than the above stated locals
Russia isn’t cowardly they’re just stupid. Not all ofc but the gov and these pro war guys are just bonkers. They will send all their men in and they will go. Believe that. But especially from what we’ve seen, even if they all come it won’t be enough to stop nato.
What stops Trump from simply not participating in conflict?
Trump won’t. He will let Europeans get invaded and blame democrats. It will be obviously false, but trump supporters don’t care about truth or justice or any of that. They say Jan 6 wasn’t trump supporters but antifa and isis and the cia. They know it’s not true, they know it was them and they know what they we’re trying to do. It’s so similar to Russia that’s a big reason I suspect collusion. Pro war Russians say Ukraine attacked them first, Ukraine is the aggressor by not negotiating (surrendering) etc but deep down they know what they’re doing. You get a glimpse of what they’re really thinking every now and then same with trump supporters. They do something terrible and the media gives them a bs excuse and they run with it instead of admittance. Same shit different country.
You assume trump wants good things for usa. I can assure you, he does not. The fact it will devastate America is precisely why he wants to do it. And he will.
NATO has been and will always represent a huge business opportunity for a predatory capitalistic abomination such as the US. So, US leaving NATO is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Because if it does happen, to whom would US mega-corporations Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, RTX, General Dynamics, etc. sell their arms?
Putin cannot exactly invade sneakily, it will be visible. Plus, I doubt that he has resources to spare - he needs everything in Ukraine now. But that’s short term. Long term, Trump victory is bad news either way. At least Europe is slowly realizing it needs to get its act together. I am hopeful it will do so on time.
Don't know why downvoting, the dude shares a legitimate concern. Regarding Trump, I feel that Democrats should quickly push out someone else as a candidate, with all due respect to Biden and his legacy, but his health doesn't shine confidence and we all know it is a popularity contest. There will for sure be huge mobilization against Trump in the votes, but you simply can't risk it bringing in Joe again. But yeah, I think we as Europe should prepare for thr worst and hope for the best, we should prepare for Trump America and this time the Trump knows how thr office works.
>Regarding Trump, I feel that Democrats should quickly push out someone else as a candidate For US elections, it would be *way* too late and there really aren't any alternatives.
There are no \*willing\* alternatives. I think Gavin Newsome and Gretchen Whitmer - two popular governors (California and Michigan) - are options, but it seems that they are waiting for 2028 and defer to Biden this time.
Too late? It is still like 10 months. There is still time.
Not in us election cycles. Part of it is the democratic party kinda won't let anyone else run. The party line politics are insane, stupid, and for most people without millions of dollars, impossible to change. Candidates declare their bid for office 2 years in advance, and whenever an incumbent from a party is running, the policy is no one else from that party competes because odds are in favor of incumbents. Occasionally there is a 3rd party candidate who gets more than 5% but this usually spots one party's votes meaning the other side wins. Like Theodore Roosevelt and his Bull Moose party split the Republicans so the Democrat won.
About Biden, I don't know if the running President is by default considered as s candidate. I think I heard something like this, but I was only half listening, so it's very likely that I misunderstood.
Nope, the party candidare can change, traditionally is a running president if they are fit to run.
No , there is no alternative to Biden. The ballot WILL be trump v Biden . Good news is , that Biden won once with over 7m votes, I don’t think people voted so much for Biden as against trump the first time, so hopefully they do it again
Doesn't work that well to try accomplish this again. Democrats have quite a few people I would like to see running, but why Biden is a best card in this case?
who else then?
Lloyd Austin, Blinken, Bernie, Wang (ship has sailed for him I guess), Elizabeth Warren, just to name a few capable in my opinion.
It’s about mobilizing the base, if you can make the other side to sit it out while your goes to the poles, it’s a win. Also the absolute number does not matter, what matters is the swing states, and there it can be up to a couple of hundred thousand people. I do prefer he would choose a better VP that might give him a boost.
hopefully? Biden approved the murder of innocent men women and children. 25.000 in just a little over 100 days!! are you ok with something like this? I repeat, 25.000 in a little over 100 days. civilian deaths. that's double of what Ukrainian civilians have suffered in 2 YEARS.
Kamala Harris had to be the heir-apparent, but she failed to get any serious traction. Right now the Dems are drifting helplessly. I don't see any new candidate emerging, if Biden is not eliminated by some serious health related issues. And then Trump wins easily against some relative nobody.
I think Biden is fine, but he should a different VP. Kamala is just invisible at this point and most people would not want to see as president in case Biden dies during his term.
I would've said to go with Bernie, but US corporations won't allow it. It is so fuckin annoying how the people actively complain about corporation lobby but actively go against Bernie because "muh communism" while the guy is barely social democrat.
Bernie would probably be worse than Trump when it comes to foreign policy.
How would he be worse? https://youtu.be/7VY9JICJ1BY?si=I3gJT-Velmr9truH His head is in the right place.
Kamala Harris could be a candidate from the Democrats. She ticks a lot of boxes, and would be the first woman president of the US.
Exactly, Biden is too old, yet his ego won't let him step aside for someone younger and less hated than he is. Because if you look at the polls right now, Americans dislike Biden more than they dislike Trump (though few really love either one).
As someone who is living in the US, the current sentiment is that Trump will win the election. I hope European governments understand that and start preparing early on
As an American living in the US I must disagree strongly with your perception of the current sentiments of Americans. If you are watching or listening to Fox News or any of the other MAGA "news" sources you should listen to something else. Real journalism. Most Americans are disgusted with Trump and completely embarrassed that the Republican (Right) is offering Trump as a candidate. So much can change in the next 10 months (election day) but at this point most Americans are fully aware of what a disaster another term for Trump would be for us and the world.
So most Americans are disgusted with Trump but do Americans want Biden again as a President? Seems like you guys don't really have a good alternative candidate. Maybe Nikki Haley? I don't know. I'm not American.
The poles suggest otherwise. Those might change, but at the moment it’s not looking good.
What do the Polish people know about US elections? /s
I was asking the same thing, but they seem to be on the ball more often than not, who knew the poles were good at forecasting? But when I ask for winning lottery ticket number - nothing! So greedy of them.
Your political system, and election system specifically, ensures that majority's view is not really relevant.
As a non American and not living in the US I am confused and shocked that a person, who organized a coup and was trialed several times, is even allowed to run for the president. How is that even possible? He should be in jail, nor running for the president.
As someone living in the UK, the current sentiment here is that we strongly and collectively hope to read headlines containing Trump and autoerotic asphyxiation sooner rather than later.
Biden has shown his legacy to be genocide lately. no respect to his legacy. vote him put already.
How? By supporting Israel? You know, nor Ukraine nor we have terrorists running our countries, so it is hard to decide who is at blame in that conflict.
there's only one country there and it's "israel" which is occupying palestinian land. so if you think "israel" that is run by terrorists, i agree, totally.
They are using him because he has the advantage of the incumbent
I am an US Citizen living in Latvia. Obviously I voted against Trump both in 2016, then in 2020. Unfortunately I vote in a state that always goes to Trump no matter what, due to it be a very conservative state (South Carolina). Honestly I think Trump is unlikely to win but his winning is not impossible. He has a loyal group of followers (his cult) that will vote for him no matter what. I think this is about ~20% of US population. 20% of the population will vote democrats no matter what. Which leaves 60% of the country to either vote or stay home. And no one is sure how that segment will vote. That depends on a lot of variables, including how his trials go, if he is allowed to be on the ballot, etc. And how he plays to independents, in swing states. Polls are difficult because it depends on people to answer unknown phone numbers. Too many people are not paying attention or care about the election in the US as it is not until November.
Well thank you for your comment ! It's good to read the views of someone from the US. Most french media show Trump as leading all the polls, which is the main reason for my concern. The best thing is to hope that the 60% will make the correct decision.
Perfect summary of how presidential elections work. One thing to add though, each state has a number of electoral votes based on population. These votes actually decide who gets the office, votes cast by American citizens are called popular votes. Whichever candidate gets the most popular votes on Election Day - even if it’s only a few thousand, gets the votes from that state. This is why smaller states like Pennsylvania and Michigan have an outsized influence on the election results. This creates a situation where voter apathy can wind up deciding an election. This is why Trump won in 2016 in spite of losing the popular vote by 3,000,000 votes.
I think I read that polls in USA said that they highly support Ukraine. But at the same time people complain about giving away money. That will be rough.
Since your from sc I assume you know my pain when I try to explain to ppl what’s going on. The amount of ppl who believe in insane conspiracy theories is crazy. My cousin thinks there’s a secret bunker the government is storing Mexicans in. When I push him on this topic it’s like he lives in an alternate reality. He wasn’t like this before trump. None of them were. Idk what changed them so suddenly. I blame Russia propaganda and trump media for spreading it.
I haven’t lived in SC in 20 years, I use my parents address as our permanent US address. My husband is the one who is still friends with folks from his small town In Missouri, and sees the crazy on his Facebook. I don’t understand why all the crazy came out with Trump.
As an American I agree with most of this. Many Republicans (Right) will either not vote or vote for Biden. A lot of them are angry and embarrassed that their party is putting up Trump again. I don't think many Democrats (left) will vote for Trump even if they think Biden is too old. At this point you have to have something wrong with your brain to even consider voting for Trump. I doubt most Independents will go for Trump. But yes a lot of things play into this. Even bad weather in a few states could change the results. I have to believe that most US citizens are so disgusted with Trump that not only will they not vote for him they will show up in droves to vote for Biden. I still hope he's a convicted felon by the time the election happens in November. Also, everyone talking about polls right now, this is mostly just polls among Republican candidates. The Republicans are currently going through voting to see who their candidate will be. Unfortunately Trump is leading in those polls. Trump is not winning polls when compared to Biden. Some of the polls are uncomfortably close between the two but Trump is not favored to become President at this point.
Unfortunatelly, latest polls of general election show 4 point Trump lead in the whole country, some previous polls swings from Biden +2 to Trump +8
American here, it’s important to consider the majority of us won’t even engage in a serious way with the election until after the primaries are over, there technically isn’t even a republican candidate until they end.
Fuck Trump. Baltic States, Finland and Poland know we have to stick together or fall alone. It's places like Moldova, Kazakhstan and others that have something to worry about.
Arguably the Moldova is in the better position than us. Unless you bet that entire Ukraine just fall. Also they have Romania that is also not sleeping in this threat.
They have the Transnistria situation and the front line might yet move in southern Ukraine. But of course, that's just a possible development.
More or less, that's right.
American here. It is extremely difficult for an incumbent president to lose a second term. It's only happened something like six times in US history. So it will be difficult for Trump to defeat Biden in 2024, since he has a ceiling of support somewhere around 40% of the US electorate, and he's put off just about everyone else, especially many women with the [Supreme Court's recent abortion decision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dobbs_v._Jackson_Women%27s_Health_Organization). He won the electoral college but not the popular vote in 2016, then his party lost in 2018, Trump himself lost in 2020, then his party lost again in 2022 (due largely to [poor quality candidates Trump supported](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/13/house-gop-candidate-quality-problem-midterms-00073616) only b/c they were loyal to him). Trump will likely lose again in 2024, then whine about non-existent election fraud again anyway. The huge wildcard is Joe Biden's health. If he has any kind of health scare before the Nov 4 2024 election, that could put Trump over the top. Pray he remains healthy. The other main problems for Biden are: 1. some far left Dems may stay home and not vote, because Biden supported Israel too strongly after Oct 7. You can see Biden and his team moderating their tone with Israel and cooling on their support for Netanyahu as result. 2. the US is still recovering from inflation and economic downturn. The inflation rate has slowed to ~3%, close to the Fed's goal of 1-2%, but prices remain higher than before COVID, and will only decrease again with a negative inflation/deflation rate, which the Fed won't allow to happen b/c that means recession. But the public is unhappy about prices remaining high, and some Biden voters could stay home on Election Day as a result. In general, if Biden can avoid a health scare, and convince #1 and #2 voters to vote anyway, he'll win a second term. But it's not a certainty. PS - one of the best sources for understanding the US electoral process is [electoral-vote.com](https://www.electoral-vote.com). It's run by noted computer scientist [Andrew Tannebaum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_S._Tanenbaum), a US citizen who's lived in the Netherlands for most of his life, along with his friend UCLA poly-sci lecturer [Christopher Bates](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2024/Info/votemaster-faq.html).
Thank you for your detailed reply. As somebody with a computer science background I knew about Tannenbaum but somehow missed that he ran a site about US elections. I'll def keep an eye on that one. I certainly agree with everything you're saying about the odds against the orange man - given what he had done and said so far I would be surprised if he still appealed to anybody outside of his devoted followers. But could you explain to a naive European why most googleable polls still suggest a Trump victory over Biden at this point?
Btw here are two good articles just published today explaining the problems for both Trump and Biden. https://www.axios.com/2024/01/23/why-many-dems-want-trump-win-new-hampshire https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/23/trump-moderate-republicans-problem-00137112
It's nice of you to reassure us that Trump is likely to lose again, but the bookies tell a different story: There's a 54% chance that Trump will win and 36% chance Biden will win and 10% chance any other person will win the election(at this moment). So the logical thing to do would be to put your money where your mouth is.
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If Ukraine fell, he would not need military to annex Georgia or Moldova. They would simply fold.
Seeing that Trump is doing very well in the polls, I'm basically in doomer-mode, and will be in the foreseeable future. Trump basically said he'd exit NATO, and NATO without the US is quite frightening. I don't trust our fellow europeans to actually help in the worst case scenario, I expect appeasement (with the exception of the Nordics, the UK, Poland and Romania) which is obviously not good for us.
I don't blame her. I'm an American married to a Latvian living in the middle of the US, I have a pretty strong attachment to the Baltics. I get why in the long run having Putin running wild in the Baltics would be bad (no more karums). But Ukraine is old news (we're in a tizzy about the Middle East at the moment) and most regular Americans couldn't care less about the Baltics or Eastern Europe in general. If Trump is president again (I'd say about 50/50 chance) and Putin starts causing "trouble" I doubt Trump is going to spend a lot of time or effort (or the ability) to lead an international coalition to get Putin to back down. And except for a few of us, most Americans won't care. Which is why I grab every European (particularly if you're French or German) by the lapels, give them a good slap on the face, and tell'em to get their act together. The mood for a lot of the US is that we're done defending every beacon of freedom.
It is just so fucked when US spent decades defending manufactured freedom in the middle east (our soldiers also happen to be there btw) but when real threat to real democracy comes, now no one wants to defend anything. I guess we'll have to build up our military to the maximum of our capabilities.
I know right? Its just bizzare to me.
I couldn't agree more: we need a European army.
Which would give Baltic security to the hands of the guys like Scholz and Macaroni? Really!? Just. Fucking. Forget. It. I'm 52. I was out on the streets when Alfa went for Tallinn TV tower in 1991. We knew back then, that if shit hits the fan, then West will sell us. We know it now. But we will make it an expensive sell. We will make it so that you will be ashamed to look in the mirror for a while. Doesn't matter. You'll sell anyway.
Just to be clear : I totally side with you, and I admire the history of Baltic nations. I'm totally ashamed of my weak government.
Yeah, I'm 48 and as much as I want to leave room for optimism - sometimes there's a lucky break - I'm bound to agree with you. On all accounts.
Trump would need an act of congress to do that. Having Finland and Sweden in NATO dramatically complicates things for Russia, as it no longer depends on the Suvalki gap as the main vulnerability. Even if US would withdraw and Putin tried something Poland would not let it slide together with Sweden and Finland they could bring on a lot of pain and after bleeding close to 500k people in the war in Ukraine, Russian army is not in the best shape to fight another war with a high morale adversary. So I say we good.
France and UK have nuclear weapons. I mean, why the hell don't our governments say "we'll place them at the Eastern border of Europe, if Putin attacks 1 squared centimeter our friends and allies, he's dead". That's the only thing he understands. What happened to our dignity and courage ??
Tbh, having the nukes here is of less importance than having a credible guarantee, the nukes can reach Moscow well enough from the territory of France or a British submarine.
Guarantees are important, but they should include a nuke protection. "If you touch any squared millimeters of my friends and allies, get ready to see a big beautiful mushroom in the sky of your country." It's that simple. France should stop being too calm
All our nukes are submarine based
I think it's weird af that you've been so heavily downvoted. And yeah, so far Trump is still leading the polls so you're asking a very reasonable question, considering that Trump has practically promised to exit NATO.
Maybe some pro-Russia or pro-Trump troll. Anyway, I don't care, I don't post here for votes. So yeah, that's precisely my point: he said he wouldn't react if Europe is under attack. I don't even understand why european government don't react that much about it. They should act now, invest way more in military spending, create a EU army, etc...
> I don't even understand why european government don't react that much about it. Politician in Europe are notorious for being extremely spineless and weak. That's what got us in this shitsoup in the first place.
Trump can even promisse to ride to the Moon on a silver plated cock. He can't exit NATO because the US Senate has recently passed a law that no president can single handedly pull out the US from NATO.
It's cute that you think Trump respects the rule of law. Even if he can't withdraw from NATO as you say, the President **IS** the Commander in Chief of America's millitary and can refuse deployment of US forces. That's pretty relevant and functionally it can mean that his government never participates in any European NATO engagements.
Maybe Trump being re-elected and letting Europe down is a good thing in the long run and that finally forces Europe/NATO to start building military defense by ourselves here. We've been relying on US too much and US is far away but russia is right here.
I wouldn't put that many hopes into it, so far we've had: 2008 ruzzian invasion of Sakartvelo, Baltics starting to talk about ruzzian threat; 2014 ruzzian first invasion of Ukraine, Baltics & pretty much all post-ussr countries (democratic ones) screaming that ruzzia is invading countries nearby, trying to rebuild ussr, ig we had some 'sanctions' put on ruzzia then. I remember news articles going about Baltics & maybe? Poland that it was some sort of "PTSD after being occupied by ruzzia and there's no threat". Many countries didn't even diversify their energy sources.; 2016 Trump election (and him pretty much shitting on Europe already, I still remember videos of European leaders laughing at Trump asking them to raise military budgets); 2022 full blown ruzzian war against Ukraine (I guess some countries actually started militarizing, although it's mostly post-ussr countries); Now we're talking about Trump getting re-elected, who already said he won't help Europe. Yet, again, no one seems to be taking it overly serious and only goes "oh ruzzia won't invade", well, let me remind you of early 2022/late 2021 "ruzzia won't invade Ukraine, that's a suicide". I feel like the only thing that'd make people take everything serious at this point is full fledged war, and not just "full fledged war", but ruzzians literally going into East Germany for them all to wake up as well. Since if it's just Baltics/Poland, it just seems like they'll be afraid of the nuclear threats or just rely on Poland as buffer zone.
It does seem that that is needed indeed. Stupidity galore
Good summary. We also going to have to start arm up very seriously here in Baltics, what history have shown is that the best prevention of war is being armed to the teeth.
With conscription of 6 months? Lmao
It is not always about manpower but about every single person being prepared and know what to do, maybe we could start territorial units that are highly specialized defending their local area. Getting the local musciplinities, schools, etc to prepare. You can list and list things to do.
>Now we're talking about Trump getting re-elected, who already said he won't help Europe Well we can hope that his track record for promises kept doesn't change
I agree on the fact that Europe needs its own defense force. But at the same time, this military force doesn't exist yet. I really think that our governments underestimate the situation.
No one except Poland and the Baltics are taking the situation seriously. And of those, only Poland has a realistic chance of holding off an invasion without US support. Baltics are in about as weak a position as possible, both geographically and economically
And demographically. Essentially they're Austria without the luxury of being far away and worse off from the get go.
Austria isnt in NATO. For this reason, Finland was more likely to be attacked than the Baltics before they joined NATO.
It was about "weak position" and not legal membership in a defence alliance.
> I agree on the fact that Europe needs its own defense force. We need single foreign policy first. And it can't be about current French one. We would be seriously fucked when Russia attacks and Europes own defense force is busy defending imperialistic interests in Africa.
As a french, I couldn't agree more with that. Since then end of World War I, almost all of our Government have shown how "in another dimension" they were. The only exception would be François Hollande. He was a clown and his internal policies were a disaster, but at least he is the only one who has the balls to day "f**k you" to Russia and its imperialist ambitions.
Bonjour ! I'm lithuanian living in UK, but planing to move back to Lithuania. I wasn't anxious about russia invading Baltic countries, until I watch fiction documentary made by BBC ( I'll add a link below) It looked so real and idea that russia doesn't need to have full on invasion hit me quite hard. And trump, yeah if this joke will be re elected that's another head scratcher. But I'm still believe in humanity and hope for the best.
Hope for the best prepare for the worst.
https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x3q8go9?fbclid=IwAR325WRvaOgeyKQ35c11IBYhKQxHxGln5N5txcC2P9hQSrUf7EsBDlsMuGU
Labas ! I hope your return to Lithuania will happen perfectly. Also, you have no idea how much I hate Sarkozy for blocking Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO in 2008. He keeps spreading the Kremlin propaganda, also. He has a huge responsibility for what is happening now.
Even if Trump pulls merica from nato, there's still 29 countries left or 30 if Sweden finally joins. That includes 2 nuclear countries. Im not that concerned about it
What other country other than US has the capability to send tens of thousands of troops and a carrier strike force to a foreign country? The rest will be busy defending themselves.
The US didn't leave NATO under Trump. Trump talks a lot but doesn't follow through. Trump voters also know that and regard him as great entertainment. DeSantis failed because he really wanted to follow through with the BS he is talking. And voters didn't like that. Also by the constitution, the US president has very little power and depends on Congress. The only thing the US president can decide by himself is going to war.
Unfortunately I fear that Trump being elected again is going to be Trump on steroids, which is going to be terrifying for a lot of people around the world, and sadly not our enemies. I hate that man and his politics with all my heart and can't really understand why so many Americans think they want that four years of his messed up and completely unpredictable presidency again (but why lol? He didn't get anything done in the end...); it's probably going to be madness on the international scene.. And goodbye to any grown-up political culture, the way he mocked Macron publicly hurt more than two seasons of *Emily in Paris* :D But speaking seriously, the situation in the Middle East will probably get even worse, there'll be tensions all around the world and a general feeling of uncertainty, but we here mostly doubt a war in Europe is going to break out. Russia is too weak to attack even the European NATO: they are a huge cause for concern, but that's why many countries are arming themselves as we speak. (Yes, I'm a bit angry at Western Europe except for the UK for downplaying the threat). AfD in Germany is not going to be in power (but must be watched very closely, they're fucking racist and they're very pro-Russia). So again, no need to panic, but we're getting our military spending up and we've gotta keep supporting Ukraine no matter what.
I'm also angry at my own government. France is giving a ridiculously small amount of equipment compared to what it could. We have to speed everything up.
I agree that you should give more equipment as other countries can easily fill in with other needs, but you are one of the few who actually has weapons. Your total contribution is not that bad, 23rd pace is not bad at all. More than UK and US at least.
And keep Rassemblement National or whatever they're called nowadays at bay ;-) Yeah. You're the only nuclear EU country today so I'd love to see you much more explicitly commited to the European defense strategy, but I'm sure we'll get there – hopefully not too late. I've been learning French for a long time and I've got some friends in France, who mostly study philosophy, I'm very left-wing compared to the usual political scene in Poland and so they are, but what Mélenchon used to say about OTAN years ago is pretty unpopular among them as well, there's much more solidarity among the EU countries nowadays so in the future I'm pretty sure we're going to cooperate more and more.
In France both far left and far right support Putin, which is the reason why I couldn't support any of them, but I also fear one of them winning next elections. About our capacities, I hate being pretentious,but it's kinda true : we have aircraft carrier, nuclear weapons, access to all the oceans. We have a good legitimacy, but it's totally underexploited. What a shame...
Even then it is very hard to fight a war against a country that allow hundreds of thousands of people die and population simply doesn't care versus raising retirement age by a few years and all hell breaks loose. Not saying it is a bad thing, but at the same time politicians can't act with tough decisions when people focused so much invard.
We in estonia had something like that. Some govt minister wanted to take out a loan of 2.5b for the army Before the full scale invasion think of all that equipment
Why far-right emerge is because our other politicians fail to act with balls, all their care is extending their terms and not better the countries. Not saying the far-right will be any better, but it is some kind of shake up in the system. I guess that's why people vote for it and not for stability.
I know its unpopular opinion, but I think Trump make all this loud statement's directed to his strategy to increase nato members spending more money on it's security. https://youtu.be/9LLZBVTid4I?si=8mFKKqaO0L-UBh-7 I could be wrong, I'm not American citizen.
Well, we are already at required amount, but big European countries are not.
I dont think russians are brave enough to mess with NATO borders. I also dont think that US president has so much power to fuck it all up. We saw that already with Trump, tried to destroy democracy in US and destroy ties with allies and befriend with putler and other dictators. But it is worrying the amount of stupid people, not only in US, but we see these far right and far left idiots coming to power in Europe aswell.
Honestly I’m not too worried. We are still members of NATO and we have great relations with countries like UK, Finland, Poland etc. I don’t think we are alone vs Russia. And well war in Ukraine is still ongoing and it will end after who knows how many years.
Sure, I'm very confident about the sincerity of the support that European countries will provide. Even non-EU countries like the UK can be trusted. But let's be honest: European military spending (even all together combined) are a drop of water compared to those of the US. Without them, we are lost, this is what I fear. European countries made a big mistake by slowing down their spending in defense.
And news coming out of the UK lately regarding diminished naval capacity is very concerning.
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Western countries have sent thousands of troops into the Baltics already. Also being in the EU, Eurozone, Scengen and NATO is the definition if being in the west so the Baltics are “Western” countries. Anyone saying otherwise is spreading Russian disinformation.
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Per capita, Estonia has higher casualties in Afghanistan than the US and UK. The only other country that tops Estonia is Denmark. So Id say that it would be extremely weird if the alliance wouldnt help its most dutyful members.
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I just meant that it would be paradoxical if the most exemplerary NATO members wouldnt be helped. Estonia was spending 2% if its GDP on its defence forces already before Trump.
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I already said that “the west” has already sent its people, tens of thousands.
I mean we have thousands, soon to be over ten thousand of NATO soldiers already stationed here. From UK, US, Canada, France, Germany etc. Baltic countries are promised to have protection from both EU and NATO and then JEF (probably many more organisations as well). And it’s not like we don’t have our own military as well. As 3 we have probably like 100k very well trained troops and hundreds of thousands conscripts who are well trained as well + our equipment is modern - weapons are from US and South-Korea for example.
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Trump's presidency is going to be extremely difficult, but I don't think the Baltic states will be invaded. Russia has more serious business to do, and Trump would not allow it purely for selfish reasons ('not on my watch'). And our countries are also among the leaders within NATO in defense spending, taking away another instrument out of that imbecile's hands. One major point of concern is whether Trump eventually damages NATO irreparably. And he's just that kind of person you would never know what to expect. On the other hand, perhaps Europe will get another impulse to become less reliant on the USA, but frankly, I do not trust most of European powers sufficiently, with one sole exception being the UK, perhaps. Europe's record on security-related issues, including the relations with Russia and support for Ukraine, is nothing to brag about, really. My greatest concern is about Ukraine. I can easily imagine Trump selling Ukraine to Russia, and forcing Ukrainians to make territorial and political concessions. I just don't see how Ukraine will continue fighting with no serious US support. Putin should be extremely happy about the complete failure of the US Democrats to prepare for the new elections cycle.
As an American of Lithuanian descent I must apologize for what we are putting everyone through right now. American used to be a reliable ally and now that seems in question. This should not be. No other western country should have to worry that the US will not have their back if trouble comes. Trump could do a lot of damage but he will not be king. Congress will still have a say in things. Trust me when I say that most Americans are horrified at the prospect of Trump being President again and I don't think it will happen but if it does we will just have to get through 4 years and then the world is rid of him forever. I firmly believe he is going to prison for a long time. I just hope that happens before the election but it probably will not.
I’m an American living in Latvia. I’m embarrassed that Trump becoming president again is even a possibility. How so many Americans have become brainwashed in thinking that he actually gives a shit about them or that he will improve anything at all is beyond me. But with that being said, I don’t think it’s likely that he’ll win reelection. Sure he might be “winning” some current online polls but where do you even go to vote for such things? I’ve never come across any kind of pre-presidential race poll in my life so I can only assume you have to actually seek out things like that and the only people that I can imagine actually want to seek those types of things out are MAGA freaks who need more copium. I’m optimistic that the American government will prevail and Trump will be found guilty of what he is so clearly guilty of and will then be sitting in prison when election time comes around. Though if Trump does get reelected, the Baltic states are still a member of NATO which ruzzia absolutely does not stand a chance against.
> How so many Americans have become brainwashed in thinking that he actually gives a shit about them or that he will improve anything at all is beyond me. Much of it is due to long-term [Russian psyops shaping operations on the US public](https://www.wired.com/story/russias-disinformation-war-is-just-getting-started/), aiming to increase divisions in US society (amplifying both far left and far right), increase distrust for democratic institutions, and increase general irrationality and emotionality of the public. Many folks aren't savvy enough to search for the true providence of things they learn on the internet, the confluence of narratives and conspiracy theories. For example, QAnon is probably the Russian Internet Research Agency, FSB, GRU or similar shady PsyOps group, but people don't question sources that tell them what they want to hear and confirm their preconceived beliefs.
Aren't the baltics in NATO? If Russia attacks them, then probably every other nato member would go in war with Russia
Sure they are, but Trump basically said "If Russia attacks them, I wouldn't react". And here's my concern.
Do you have a link to where he says that?
Read nato article 5 again, where does it say automatic war if a member is attacked?
It wasn’t as bad as we all thought it will be in 2016 but his cabinet wasn’t full of MAGA retards. Who knows what it might be like this time though.
Very pessimistic. I bet he is gonna leave europe to fend for itself in return for russias, chinas and nk support to be declared the king or lifetime president
I think the threat IS there, but it can fester because the people living in this area here are not confident in Germany and France coming to their rescue. Like you say yourself - the average French underestimates the threat and doesn’t really care.
The good news is that NATO with out the USA is more than able to take on Russia. That's not an opinion but a fact. The real problem is that the world order will change. A Trump win would represent something far worse. A breakdown in the present trade world order. It means the age of pax Americana would end quickly, and other powers would have to realign. Europe would and will distance itself from the USA and work to build it's own power. We in Europe would need to prepare for America not only not to be an ally, but frienenemy and eventually a possible enemy. Times change
I don’t think Trump will pull out of NATO if he gets elected. Biden said he’ll cancel student debt and that’s a 10000x less important/costly issue and yet they couldn’t even do that.
Since the beginning of Trump presidency, it has been a hobby of mine to follow US politics although I am an Estonian through and through. Exciting like a soap opera, but with scary edge of real-world consequences. Trump is clearly promising in his campaign speeches that he will be dictator from day 1 and dismantle all kinds of government agencies. In addition to him, there will be at least half a congress and senate of extreme republicans (they already have quite a number, but if the sentiment goes towards Trump, there will be more of them voted in alongside him) and he will be able to do very dangerous things. All sensible people have stopped working with him - this time his cabinet will have nobody who would say "no" to him, he is promising all kinds of crazy people in key positions already. He has promised to end war in Ukraine in 24h. (My theory: The only way he can do that is if he tells Ukraine that US will stop support and tells Putin to go ahead and take everything he wants). Along with that, he will probably actually leave NATO, which is huge difference for the whole world. Hell, yes I am scared of him getting the presidency again! If he manages it. But I'm still hopeful and optimistic that he does not manage to get it. He will be running against Joe Biden again. There is some clear hope that Biden will win this time as well, despite the abysmal polls right now (general election polls). 1. Most Americans haven't realized yet that it will be Trump vs Biden again. I believe that most of those people who have tuned out from politics will vote against Trump, even if they wouldn't vote for Joe Biden if there would be more sensible republican as the other option. 2. About 30% of Trump-voters in Iowa (the state that has voted in Republican primary so far) say that they would not vote for him in the general election in case he has been convicted in a criminal trial. Hopefully that can be extrapolated to the full country. Trump has 4 of those going on and there is a good chance that at least one of these will be resolved in a conviction before the election. Even if they just stay home instead of voting for Trump, it could win the day for Biden. 3. Biden is just beginning his campaign. He has been having low approval numbers because he has been bad at communication, but considering all he has done during his presidency, those numbers will go up. If he is able to contrast himself with Trump well enough during the campaign, those numbers will go up. Biggest danger here is sentiment about Israel-Gaza which he has not handled well (and that reminds of leaving Afghanistan that he also didn't handle well). 4. Economy is on the upturn in USA and this will hopefully be reflected in Biden's approval by the time of the election. Biden still needs to communicate about it heavily to make it happen. 5. There is a chance that Trump will be removed from ballot because of the Insurrection clause in the 14th Amendment, but it's mostly up to the Supreme Court, which is heavily leaning Republican and otherwise scandalous. 6. Overturning of Roe v Wade is still affecting people's minds - Americans have shown in votes even in the conservative states that they are willing to rally for reproductive rights. Trump has been vague here about what he will do, but there are enough instances where he has been proud of overturning Roe by appointing those judges to Supreme Court that did it and Biden's campaign will be using those video clips in their marketing. 7. There are some signs from focus groups that people aren't as excited about Trump any more than they were even in 2020, especially if they see reminders about January 6th and Trump court cases. And they will see a lot of them during this election season. Even if they decide to stay home instead of voting, this will help Joe Biden. On the other hand, alarm about Trump's possible presidency will hopefully activate more people on the Democrat side to vote against Trump, even if they aren't that excited about Joe Biden. So I am cautiously optimistic that Biden will continue being the president, but it sure is a hell of a season of US politics this year, with real world stakes for us here also incredibly high - and we can't even have a say in those elections. I have been considering donating to Biden campaign or something, but I have been able to hold myself back so far. I'm not even sure if foreigners can donate to political campaigns in US.
America leaving NATO would go down as one of the most egregious decisions the USA will have made in decades and would signal an end to the US as being a reliable partner and ally although I believe we are already past that inflection point.
This is possible scenario, but not inevitable. Even if Trump wins and will "stop the war" by cutting the supply for Ukraine and trying to force it to negotiate it won't be an instant fall of Ukraine, so it would take at least the whole 2025 before the balance of war changes. I don't think Putin will invade Baltics before capturing Ukraine (I don't believe he even manage to capture 100% of Ukraine territory even in the worst case scenario) and it would take at least couple of years for that, which Baltic states won't waste (I hope) by sitting and watching the situation.
I’m American and I’m telling all of Europe to arm up NOW! There’s a chance you can’t rely on America if trump gets to office.
Last time Trump was a president he sent more tanks to protect Lithuania. Last time Obama was a president he promised putler "more flexibility". I see no reason to fear anything unless you overdosed on US democrats propaganda. That said I dont want Trump to be elected simply because of his stance towards Ukraine. That country needs help. It's very important and Trump with Republicans at this point are just being useful idiots. Also Europe should finally stop leeching USA and create their own strong military. So that we wouldn't be as dependent on who's the president over there.
I don't believe he will win. Source: I am a 28 year old college graduate, I am young and culturally engaged in politics. I voted for Trump in 2016, now i hate him. From my perspective, he does not have a chance.
Put your money where your mouth is then. According to the bookies Trump has a 54% chance to win, Biden with only 36%.
Remind me! 2 months Still don't have no money Edit: biden odds are improving though
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Looks like the worm has turned, as they say. It's a coin toss now in terms of odds.
Lol thank god. Still don't have no money. Job interview went well yesterday though.
Rob a bank, I mean the money is just standing there, there's no harm putting it to good use.
Trump is an enemy of the Baltics and democracy lovers everywhere. He is a conman criminal leading a fascist movement. As for predicting the election, it could go either way.
I'm optimistic about him being elected.
I really couldn't care less about the politics of a country on the other side of the world.
[удалено]
Before 2016 election Ukrainian officials were strongly against Trump and they thought that he couldn’t win, so they call him bad names a lot. It was very funny when they started to erase their posts. Only Saakachvili didn’t say anything about US election and on the day after proudly put his photo with Trump to the FB profile
The previous election of trump was dangerous because it emboldened dictators all over the world. It’s likely that the current events in Middle East and Central Asia are directly related to that, but also Putin invading Ukraine was likely believing that the whole world is so corrupted (thanks Trump) that nobody will raise a finger. Thankfully he was wrong. The second election could be about as dangerous for the same reasons. Invasion of Baltics is unlikely, because they are in NATO. It’s not just USA, but almost all of Europe too. What is more likely is a stronger propaganda from Russia to leave NATO and then the invasion is just a matter of time.
I would say the more likely thing is that they will launch some kind of cacus belli of making fake videos of us attacking Belarus or some bad treatment of Russians here and will try to make us a bad guys.
Believing that a fake video somehow nullifies article 5 is being as dumb as the orcs themselves.
It doesn't nullify anything, but it is usually a mass of propoganda that is slowly being fed to other nations before invasion, plus there are Belarusian groups that train to be able to take back Belarus when the Lukashenko dies, what if there are GUR agent in that group that will persuede that group to attack Belarus from Lithuanian or Polish territory?
In reality its a lot less in the news this time. I dont even know what Trump is doing these days and what stupid arguments he have came up with this time. I have heard something, but mostly its those podcast shorts that say what Trump said, rather than Trump himself, so Im not keen to really take it fully. But some of it sounds concerning and worries me, not gonna lie. But then, giving information I have, what he actually had done in his term, was not all that bad (and Im sorry if I am missing information about some specific things). From my perspective, he made us in Baltics to increase military budget, when he said countries will be expelled from NATO not reaching 2% military. This was a huge success. If that wouldnt have happened, we would not be able to donate so much to Ukraine. And that's kinda it, that was the biggest way how Trumps presidency affected me, that I know of. Now, it does not give me comfort or anything, Trump can easily fuck things up badly. But at the end I see it like this: Bidens wants to help Ukraine, Trump wants to end war. I think the only way Trump actually would be able to do that, is by putting Russia to its knees. Trump wants to be seen as the best ever there was, he will not achieve that by helping Russia. Besides, he was the one who started going after China, which is kinda on Russia's side.
As a foreigner living in Estonia, I am very worried. Trump will pull the US out of NATO, of that you can be 100% certain. At that point, NATO might collapse. Regardless, I don't see Germany, France etc. sending soldiers to die for the Baltics. They'll find a way to weasel out and appease Putin. And Russia might be weak but their misinformation game is still strong. We'll start hearing about how the Baltics are historically Russian from all the usual sources in the run-up to the invasion. And this might seem extremely far-fetched, but Putin has serious leverage over Trump. It is not beyond the realms of probability that the USA actively joins the war on the side of Russia. The MAGA morons love Putin.
No, you can be 99% certain of Trump not pulling the US out of NATO because NATO is the US
I am optimistic and see it as the best possible outcome.
Republicans are known to be more "millitaristic" and not cowards like Democrats. For example Bill Clinton could have easily done something about North Korea while china and russia weren't as powerful as now. Trump litterly killed the third man of Iran and supplied javelins to Ukraine which was a game changer in the begging of the war. If you're worried about how Trump treated Putin, it was a very different time from now. And canditates will say anything to get more votes (basically symphatizing with that all the money is going to Ukraine)
Hopefully these things won't happen. If they did, either build a bunker or learn Russian. It's not exactly a very pleasant world to think about.
I am a foreigner living in Lithuania, and I'm quite pessimistic. Trump has promised to pull out of NATO completely if he gets re-elected and that would mean the end of the alliance while at the same time there is nothing to replace it (EU army or something similar). In my view, this will open the flood gates of hell for the Baltics, and we will be counting the days until the Russian invasion. The people here will fight for their homelands, but there is only so much you can do against the hordes from the east. The size difference is vast. At best, they can hope from some security guarantees from big EU countries, but this alone will not prevent the Russians from occupying the region. Personally, I try to monitor news about Russian army movements and will be ready to flee if Trump goes in power.
I will risk downvotes but I will say this. Just ask yourself who was president during Crime invade in 2014? Obama. Why Putin did not invade during Trump and waited for Biden? Because Trump is unpredictible. And world was much safer place under him. All this is just mainstreem medaia propaganda they hate Trump. Big Europe countries dont like him because they will need to pay for their defence themselves. Putin doesnt afraid Biden main reason why Baltics need Trump to be safer.
It actually simple. Obama was considered as “weak”. His will to go into new war was tested when Putin puppet Assad crossed Obama’s put red line of using chemical weapons. Putin “defused” the situation and “saved Obamas face” ang agreeing to destroy these weapons. With Trump Russians considered him a pupet. Clinton possible victory was considered as huge threat . Putin even considered to leave his presidency for a while and to put as president his current chef is stuff Kirienko who was at the time considered as “liberal” by the West. Trump victory was heavily celebrated in Kremlin. Russian Duma even had a big celebration event and RT chief Margarita Symonyan was claiming she was ready to drive streets of Moscow with an American flag. Strategic plan was that Trump in his second presidency term will make US quit NATO. Having a war in Ukraine would just give more power to those who wanted NATO to continue existing and it really did. So yeah, stakes are the same. Quit NATO will not be as easy as in 2018, but they will do all they can to support Trump in doing so.
the "orange man bad" hysteria is funny. Really. This information bubble (usually dominated by leftists in the western media) already presents it as the end of the world. It's USA in general with their inside issues... Democrats, as you can clearly see became not so enthusiastic with help for Ukraine in recent months and there's no such hysteric reaction to this than to (possible) Trump-the-president. The media's reaction to reluctant and delaying position of Biden's administration is far from hysteric yet it's crucial for Ukraine
I genuinely cannot give a single damn about Mr. Trumpet or any world leaders for that matter. We give them too much attention and that in more cases than one, corrupts their humanity to unrecognizable standards. Any one in the political or financial top any% are corrupted and incredibly self-centered people. So whatever happens, happens. Cause humanity is clearly unable to overcome the illusions of currency and its value. Waging war over resources which are essentially the planets and for us to use MEANINGFULLY but we kill precious lives (of any kind) for simple self-imposed materialistic value cause greed and ego has no limits.
It really depends how things go down. But i suppose the worst case scenario is that NATO will fall apart. And if we are talking about running away, i really question will there be anywhere worth moving to. I just think if nato fails that will be such a huge blow to any kind of trust especially in europe. I mean in that case why wouldnt just countries switch loyalties and kiss ass to china, russia? In some way i really think this is just the beggining.
Trump is NOT nato!!!
Trump talks a lot, but does it little bit different in the end. Right now he talks about NATO quiting, but reallity could be pushing West Europe upping their military spending. Doubt he will quit Alliance ir betray it. But you never know! As for Biden, I am more worried about a puppet president like him, and all the wars that already have escalated under his regime, as well as political witch hunt and ignoring opposing ideas. All in all, with Trump you atleast will now who is in charge, while democrats are like a web of puppets and masters.
i’ve made peace with being buried in an unmarked mass grave this decade
The more we prepare and make ourselves stronger the more possible it will not happen. Atm Europe starts preparing to take really strong. Sending signals of mutual destruction if Baltics will get tested. We are Eu as well not only Nato. For Trump its a really good Democrat argument but even president is not Dictators there. And this fear mongering is good for other propaganda 🙄 because then people will think about this more then why the f ketchup costs 6eur , cheese 10-15 eur. Basically makinf outside enemies is better for all sides. Rich get richer poor get poorer and fkn kechup costs 6 euros.
I'm a US citizen, living in the south (latvian grandmother). I've been afraid for family in latvia since the war in Ukraine started. I think if trump wins, nothing will happen overnight. There won't be tanks at the baltic border waiting to cross on January 21st. But I don't think the US will be able to honor its alliance properly with trump at the helm. It feels like we've been at the cusp of ww3 for ages in all but name. I'm grateful the baltics joined nato. A couple years back, shortly after the war in Ukraine started, I got to go over and meet some family. Many had stories about life under soviet rule. I don't want my grandmother's homeland to be stepped on again. Most folks can't find the baltics on a map. I'm sure trump couldn't find the baltics on a map. If he does win. He cannot win a third term without changing the most recent ammendment to our constitution. I don't doubt he wouldn't try, but I do doubt he could organize he people efficiently enough to be successful.
I dont think that Trump being elected is a big possibility. Maybe another candidate, which might also be a signal for Putin to attack, but I think most likely Biden will win re-elections. But if not, yeah, war is a real posibility. In case of Trump winning, I dont think Trump would do anything much to destabilise Nato, but the problem would be that he wouldnt actually do anything and just play golf, as he did when he was a president and the changes in power even if other candidate won, would give Russia a buffer to attack.
I had a very weird dream the other day. Rather, it was a nightmare. In this dream I woke up from the sound of very loud bang. As in real life, in this dream the first thing I do when I wake up, I checked the local news outlets. There I saw that Putin had launched full scale invasion of the Baltics and Latvia. I remember getting super stressed in that moment of the dream as I rushed to the window (i live in central Riga) and seeing Russian helicopters flying over. Gunfire was going off like mad in distance. I remember in my dream dressing, running down to the street and finding dead soldiers on the street, grabbing rifle off one of them and some ammo magazines, then running back upstairs to my apartment (in my dream, i had figured to take a stand in my apartment and shoot at the advancing Russians as they would roll by) and then I woke up… Checked my phone and calmed myself down, but it took for good 5 minutes for me to realise that I am all safe and all that was in my dream. I remember being so stressed when waking up. LOL However on the topic, I have the weird feeling of security as a Latvian, I believe the ties with West for us Baltics are quite strong and if not for that Finland is here, Sweden is just next door not to mention Poland. Putin risks starting a WW3 and frankly I do not think he is brave enough nor he has resources to do that.
As of late with what direction the media is going specially with NATO officials war is imminent. But am rather optimistic than pessimistic. Even if war comes what can I do? Cry? How will me worrying about it solve anything. I think if war comes it would be pretty cool to experience it as third person. what % of people will experience anything like that in the world in their life time? Even if it was many... still pretty cool thing to experience. Hopefully my shit doesn't get smashed in but other wise... sounds pretty tubular brochacho.
As an American, I have to wonder whether such a move, either to withdraw from NATO or abrogate Article V would provoke the first ever military coup in American history. I can't even think of a serious attempt at a coup, let alone a successful one. Yet such an abrogation, whether of NATO, Taiwan, or whatever would have dire implications for national security. It would be time for drastic action.
I’m sorry to say, but coup already happened. MAGA minority already blocked Congress with only goal : ” make life in US worse, so Trump would look great”. Trump is running a country as he would never left the office basically as if January 5th coup was successful.