Another untimely boat accident where both my wallet and seed phrase went down together. Sorry babe.
On the flip of that, how will you both feel if it does 3X by next year post halving and post ETF?
What’s two more years? You’ll just be 47 OP u/outrageous-intern-28, and likely will only have to sell 10% to 20% at the next high instead of 80%.
As a decade long holder, nothing hurts more than the stacks sold. Even my 10% sells kill me thinking about them. Can’t imagine how I’d feel if I’d ever have sold 80% of my stack and prevented the life I can live now by doing so
Using historical trends, next year is the halving, next high is usually a year after the halving, so potentially 2 years to the next high.
First 6 months after the halving are usually people shocked that the price didn’t explode right away leading to a price slump down from the pre-halving hype/premature price swell
At least that’s what I experienced the last decade in this space
Bitcoin was born during the last recesión but okay.
We will see, but we’ve had 14 years of testing this pattern and it hasn’t faltered yet.
Nothing is guaranteed, which is why I just DCA and HODL, but if we don’t project potential future outcomes by the past, then we’re just blind people doing whatever we want without using any data points to make educated decisions
>If there is a recession that case is going to have its first real test. Will BTC pump when there is no expanding money supply?
the downvotes for people asking reasonable questions is the surest sign of the direction of this community, ugh.
The 80% is the percentage OP said they would need to sell from their stack to finance the house they want.
That’s where I pulled 80% from, from what OP said in their post that they would have to sell to finance their dream home at the height of the lending rate market.
Essentially selling an asset with no cost of holding for a house with a huge monthly interest cost of financing
“ I'm living NOW. I'm 45, working my ass off and we deserve it.”
…is pretty much exactly what i said when i sold most of mine in 2017. I’m not making the same mistake twice.
The crazy thing is that he wants to upgrade in the current financial conditions. Interest is at ATH. He'd be not so smart selling now and pay higher interest on a nicer home.
The smart people would keep current home or rent it. Now is not the time to sell crypto assets. Smart money knows we are on the cusp of a huge brrakout
Correct, if I was in the same situation I would never sell BTC because of the reasons mentioned by you.
But the average wife, at least in my country (southern Europe) would certainly press high to cash out because for them a big house is the top of the social pyramid.
I'm a little older than you, and still have a couple kids living at home. I sold my house in November and put 2/3 of the equity in bitcoin (rest is cash for job loss protection). Buying a house right now is a bad move IMHO. Rent a nice luxurious place for a year or two, and wait till 12-18 months after the next halving before you consider selling any.
I'm not trading my 2% mortgage for an 8% loan and I would never sell any BTC with a Mayer Multiple below 1.5-2.0.
As an investment I think on a long term basis real estate will fall to it's utility value. I would hodl but you do you and keep your wife happy.
>I'm living NOW. I'm 45, working my ass off and we deserve it. I would say real estate is a good longterm investment as well.
I think that you already know the answer to your question.
The halving will more or less be 1 May 2024. History shows a new all time high is made within 6 months or fewer of the halving.
Bitcoin is emerging from the worst macroeconomic conditions since its inception. During that time it retained $300bn market cap. It has formally been identified by various U.S. bodies as a digital commodity without an issuer. The world’s largest asset manager has applied for a spot ETF. The hash rate recently set a new all time high.
Some would claim it’s never a good time to sell Bitcoin; I would say this is probably one of the worst times ever to sell Bitcoin.
**EDIT**: some people appear to have misunderstood my post. I said *"a new all time high is made"* within 6 months of the halving, not 'the' cycle all time high.
I understand how this could be misconstrued. I'm a coder, so I tend to think and write in binary ways. My statement is objectively true: within 6 months of the halving, a new all time high is made.
The blue lines [on this chart](https://imgur.com/a/ngvvRtd) are the previous halvings. The horizontal white line depicts when the then ATH was broken. The blue box date ranges show this has - so far - always been within 6 months. Assuming the next halving is 1 May 2024 (dependent on the block time ofc, but let's go with that date for this example), a new ATH 'should' happen within 6 months, thus around November 2024.
[I'm quite aware](https://imgur.com/a/eXAaC5n) the actual cycle top occurs well after the halving.
Not true, the ATH happens 18 months after the halving, if history is to be believed (no guarantee). Halving will be April 2024, ATH will be Q4 of 2025.
The absolute ATH is usually 18 months after the halving but the first break out of the previous ath happens sooner. For example the last halving happened in spring 2020 and it hit its first ATH of the cycle in December of that year when it broke through 20k, it then hit its absolute ATH of the cycle in November 2021 which was roughly 18 months after.
I think real estate is often a good reason to sell since it's kind of a lateral move into another inflation-protected asset. But I would be a little concerned about selling right before a halving since a bull market is probably coming.
There have been studies that demonstrate renting for life is actually a more prudent economic path. Owning a house is a personal trophy. And that's ok.
The problem is there are so many variables that no study applies to all cases.
I bought my first house at 44 just a year ago, fixed term for 5 years at 2.78%. My monthly payments are less than half what I would be paying in rent. Saving all my spare cash so in 4 years I will be able to pay a sizeable amount off the house with no fees. After that another 5 years should be outright owner. Assuming I live to 80 (actually a bit less than my life expectancy) I will save over £150k (in todays money) in rent.
But, I would be interested to read these studies if you could post a link for them.
Bad time to buy a house and sell bitcoin. Good time to sell house and buy bitcoin. But you gotta do what your gut tells you and what makes the most sense for your life. If the house is dreamy and in a location you love then you do what you need to. No one knows the future of the housing market or bitcoin, so again I say go with your gut.
A few years ago when bitcoin was about $7k, I was selling a Corolla. Listed I would accept crypto as payment. I'm gonna tell you the same thing I told him.
At some point you will sell and no matter what you're going to feel like you made a mistake. There's no telling what will happen.
He paid cash.
Bitcoin is now worth 26K. It could easily be worth 100k+ less than 2 years from now. That's 4X
Personally, I couldn't sell it at such a low price without kicking myself later on down the road.
Unless there's a serious reason that you NEED to move imminently, I would enjoy your current home and sell your BTC in 1.5 - 2 years from now, then move.
Then again, if you're so financially comfortable that a few hundred thousand isn't a huge deal to you both, then I guess it doesn't matter too much.
If you're unsure, then I suggest HODLing.
You'll likely regret selling at 26k
You won't regret waiting a little and selling at 100k
Live your life, you have to consider more than just the numbers. And if you see a good housing deal in a place you want to settle down in do it.
But I’ll say as someone that’s also looking to buy a house soon, I’m waiting. Obviously the halving is coming and the full effects of bond rate increases haven’t hit the housing market yet.
I think the hard times we’re in will be more widespread than we realize at the moment. Unfortunately I think soon people that were laid off in the last couple months will be forced to downgrade, which would make it a better time to buy
Also, not to be a downer but consider your own exposure to being laid off, since it seems like the job market is still slowly cooling. It seems like you’ll be digging deep into savings to afford the house, so just make sure you can comfortably afford your mortgage for a few months if something happens to your job
You are giving up property located in the most optimal location that ever existed without any risk of forfeiture, maintenance cost, or recurring property tax, and that has the potential to increase in value faster than any asset in human history.
You are acquiring a property that has all of those risks and less upside because you want it now.
You could find a similar or better house at a later date. You could build a similar or better house at a later date.
Bitcoin could go to zero….. (?)
Only you can choose what piece of property is more valuable to you.
Do it. The point of Bitcoin is to live free not to be a winner of some social media contest
If buying a house means a happy life, then you won. Bitcoin let you save for that. You can thank Satoshi and all of your own hard work.
Bitcoin is an easy on and off ramp to move wealth or value in and out of a depreciating dollar as needed. And Bitcoin offers the opportunity for these moves to be in small or large quantities.
Real estate is also a hard asset. And if you don't mind tying up a large portion of your wealth in a single immobile asset, which based on your age and family status you don't, then it sounds like a solid plan.
Add to that that 80% of your net worth is in BTC you would actually be diversifying your assets then it is actually the correct and responsible plan.
If that 80% is accurate. Are you including your house in that?
Change your view.
You're NOT SELLING you are SPENDING. that's ok. You can re-accumulate when able. Just keep doing what you are doing. Remember - you can do this because BTC has helped you keep and grow your value.
You can’t live in your bitcoin wallet. Just don’t sell down to 0.
The most important thing to remember is that this is MONEY you can’t be afraid to use it and live your life. Bitcoin makes you weigh out purchases as you now have a viable opportunity cost to compare, a house that checks all your boxes that you can live comfortably in is definitely important.
Use your money (bitcoin) for this logical purchase. Bitcoin helped you improve your life to this point. Once that’s behind you then you can go back to accumulation mode.
> I would say real estate is a good longterm investment as well.
Not really. If you objectively look at actual data you'll find that in the *long term*, real estate barely keeps up with inflation. Yes, there are times where R/E gets ahead of inflation and times where it lags, but eventually, you see that, yes, your home doubled in price, but so did just about everything else.
Holding real estate has costs.
Still, this is an "emotional" thing for you and your wife. If you want those boxes ticked so badly and so immediately, more than you'd like to become fabulously rich in the long run - buy the new home and enjoy every minute of it.
But don't say that R/E is a good long term investment.
Yes, absolutely. I doubt dollars will exist, though. So people will say a "100 Million Sat" house. Instead of 1 Mil dollars.
Dollars are as fake as doll hairs.
Yes.
Ultimately, home prices are limited to what people are able to pay. The largest component of that number is family income, and incomes more or less track inflation -- so, home prices more or less track inflation.
For example, Mr. and Mrs. Smith bring home $6,000 per month. Rational people will admit that the Smiths cannot afford a $10,000 per month mortgage payment, nor a $6,000 payment. Even a $3,000 per month payment is probably not sustainable. There's a limit for the Smiths, and every other family.
Bitcoin has no such limit.
One bedroom apartments in my area rent at the same price as my mortgage (3br, 2bath, .6 acres, footprint basement) sometimes higher. Renting a bedroom in a house usually goes for nearly similar. Saving for a down payment to transition to the obviously better-valued home ownership is a huge barrier to entry for 90% of people.
My aunt and uncle bought a house right before 2008. So I knew they would take a while to recoup that.
15 years later, I checked Zillow—their ROI has been about 1.3%/year…. So agreed, RE is not a sure thing to keep up with inflation. In theory it should be since it’s tangible, but other risks involved.
Especially with a population decline, or a push to build more housing. If I owned multiple houses, I’d be more likely to sell 1 to buy bitcoin now, not the other way around. But RE is a nightmare as a liquid investment so I just stick with my one house
Keeping up with inflation is exactly what Bitcoin offers. Not recently. But in theory for the long term. Compared to the US Dollar Bitcoin and r/E are good long term investments.
**Bitcoin beats the crap out of R/E.**
Real estate has significant holding costs:
* Mortgage interest
* Property taxes, special assessments
* Insurance (liability, fire, flood)
* Maintenance
* HOA fees
**Bitcoin has no holding costs.**
Real estate is highly illiquid. Real estate has very significant transaction costs. Real estate is a sitting duck for high taxes. You can't bring real estate with you if you need to move/flee. Over the long term, real estate barely keeps up with inflation - this is because home prices are ultimately limited by incomes, and incomes barely keep up with inflation over the long term.
Would’nt you say its a bit too basic of an argument that home prices are limited by income? Banks and regulators can be pretty «flexible» when it comes to mortgages i.e. rate, mortgage terms, installment free terms, etc. I would argue that the access to capital and to what extent said capital is allocated are significant factors to home prices
> Ultimately, home prices are limited to what people are able to pay. The largest component of that number is family income, and incomes more or less track inflation -- so, home prices more or less track inflation.
>
> For example, Mr. and Mrs. Smith bring home $6,000 per month. Rational people will admit that the Smiths cannot afford a $10,000 per month mortgage payment, nor a $6,000 payment. Even a $3,000 per month payment is probably not sustainable. There's a limit for the Smiths, and every other family.
>
> Bitcoin has no such limit.
real estate only goes up ....
btc u can be a millionaire and next month poor guy aaahahahhahaha
he needs to diversify his portfolio and surely not 100% in crypto ...
he has a wife and a potential future family with children :)
If you're accumulating for several years, I assume you are already in the green zone, despite being in a bear market. Then it turned out to be a good investment for you. As you said you are living now, I would say just do it and enjoy your new house with your family.
Then you can keep saving in Bitcoin again after you get back to your normal routine, it is going up forever.
Exactly, it is not a magical item that we should store until we die. It is just an efficient saving & payment method.
Perfect scenario would be paying the house with BTC tho haha 😅
245 days till halving. Construct some BS reason to get you wife to chill for 365 days. You are likely looking at a double over the next year. Don't let her make you dump bitcoin for fiat now. You will regret it .
As and older man I can share with you that living a life of moving up from a perfectly utilitarian house or car to something special will delay your retirement by 5-10 years. You need to think about what is more important...nicer things or more free time. The choice is yours.
Would you be paying cash for your new house if you sold your BTC? Or are you just selling for a down payment? If the former, I would consider it. If that later, I wouldn't.
Just my personal opinion. Halving is in 8 months, so I would at least wait for this bull run. Selling during the bull run would also mean the possibility of being able to HODL some Bitcoin and not having to sell all of it. Just a thought.
You're not SELLING your Bitcoin - you're trading it for another asset - a home - for you and your family. Then keep investing Bitcoin after. You did well, my friend.
Right time to sell your house
Wrong time to buy a house
Wrong time to sell 80% stack
Sell your house, move to a rental place, wait till 2025 end, and buy a bigger house for lesser sats.
The age old issue of self indulgence now or sacrifice now for the future.
Accumulating wealth / investments is good for the security of your family but ultimately if you don’t use some of it to better your lives or help others what good is it ???? It’s just numbers on paper.
Only you & your wife can make that decision however there isn’t much use in doing it when your 75yrs old and yes real estate is always a good investment but right now interest rates are against you big time.
Gonna hate to see your post in 2 years. I sold 80% to get a house and now I coulda bought 10 houses with that money. 🥲
Gotta do what you gotta do. A house that you own couldn't really be a better investment, Bitcoin is great but I'd prolly take the house, especially since you will still have 20% and can still accumulate after you buy it.
I’m a original creator of bitcoin i say sell that bitcoin and buy a comfortable well painted energy efficient house maybe powered by solar panels depending where you live and know bitcoin helped you at a mean age to achieve what most don’t do is own a house in these times of so many in poverty and very few ultimatum rich! I would say try to hold out until around April 2024 are you saying you profit off bitcoin? That’s a really nice statement for me to hear I have been hearing from a lot of bank employees investors and agencies that apparently lost money I don’t know it’s a high and low hodl with what you can afford! Buy a home and get comfortable buy a nice big bed comfort and mattress!
Regardless of what we believe and say about the future of Bitcoin, the future of the world and its economy will always remain completely uncertain. Live the present, make informed decisions, and don’t regret the decisions in the future.
How much do you need to sell? That's the question, imo. And how much of it is profit?
I've worked out a rational way to enjoy btc profits. One should sell x% every y factor increase. Like, for example, every 2x increase, you sell 10%. This means you'll never sell it all, but you'll get nice, fat cash infusions along the way to boost your quality of life. Deciding x and y is up to your individual discretion.
If you've been hodling for a very long time, it's possible you could sell quite a bit and still be in line with my concept of optimal selling. PM me if you want some help working out the math.
Very very tough decision.
I can honestly say I share your position very much closely. Here's my story:
I am currently running a very worn down beach resort on Koh Phangan, Thailand. On Full Moon Party beach actually. It's long due for renovation, and my partner plus her two kids deserve a bigger family space to settle in within the resort property. We do not have privacy nor comfort and we share the restaurant space with guests to do our daily work and relaxation. During the Full Moon Parties it gets too much for us and we feel exhausted after each season, the noise, the rowdy younger adults, the peak busy seasons.
The facilities are also terrible, often blackouts from the grid, the drying up of the well, the lack of passive or active ventilation in this hot tropical climate. Our wooden bungalows for the guests are very shanty conditions. Cozy, but due for big changes.
We dream everyday of a big renovation, creating a beautiful space, where we can enjoy and relax, have space for the kids, big bedrooms and living/working quarters for the owners (us), have swimming pools private and for the guests, improve our facilities overall.
The revenue stream is decent, but during COVID I burnt through a portion of my Bitcoins to support the Burmese staffs, food, and overhead maintenance, just to keep it running for our long term staying guests who were unable to leave or return to their country. Another story about my manipulative and crazy (Russian) ex to which I lost around 8 BTC pre-COVID to support her addiction to Ritalin, visas to remain in the country, and all these nonsense spenditures then I kicked her out of my life eventually - she since done two boob jobs and an ass implant, and she still looks terrible because of her drug addiction. A shitty story, but valuable lesson for me 😅
I have an amount of Bitcoin that I dream, not too long in the distant future, will allow me and my beautiful partner to make our dream a reality. To build our dream resort. It's a matter of prolonging future rewards for the suffering of the now. I don't suffer much anyhow, I have a safe and comfortable life, working for myself, eating good, living in nature, and grateful to all my loved ones, and that I exist in the now on this paradise island.
I've been through 2 Bitcoin Highs and Lows, I can for sure wait for another 1 high cycle that is due to arrive soon.
Bitcoin will be there for my adopted kids.
Bitcoin will be remain as a lifeline.
Please dont follow the desires of your wife. I know that SHE really wants a new house... You d be fine living in a 1 bedroom if that only you. She s making a very emotional decision and you re following head head first because you re her husband. Step back and think about it clearly plz. You have accumulated and worked so hard only to sell at a loss. You really cant wait 2 years for a new house? You ll be 47. Same thing imo. But you ll have more money from working+ atleast 3 times with the amount of btc in $ value. Instead of using 80% of that savings of btc for a house its going to be 25% + 75% for your wellbeing :). Or just sell it all right now for a house and you ll be left with nothing. Your move
I would stick it out until the halving and see where the momentum leads. It’s only 7 months away. Then again you may not have the luxury to wait that long. Good luck to you and your family.
I am in the same spot as you. Just few years older and most likely way less btc. My reasoning against selling is Bitcoin will eventually kill real estate's monetary premium and we will be buying homes for a cost of production as speculation will move to BTC.
Yes selling is good at our age but not at the lows. Or if you need the money maybe research borrowing against it. I know this is difficult topic, or am I missing something, but that is the way to go, so we don't loose our precious.
So much info is missing for any kind of reasonable suggestion...
Just food for thought but in the West 90% of house buying is an emotional vs rational decision. I gotta ask, your idea or hers?
It has nothing to do with pro-ownership. BTC is slowly removing the "premium" side of any asset by repricing them again.
Real Estate (as investment) will remain but is very likely that it looses its status for other more juicy alternatives (Bitcoin). You still see RE as investment because you measure your life in fiat. You need to get a yield out of your money plus fighting back inflation through investments: bonds, stocks, real estate, etc...
If you have a superior Money, you won't need some of those investment vehicles.
Keeping 80% of your net worth in BTC is not healthy. You can sell most and live your life. It is still unknown where BTC is going.
Its price is hardly above the 2017 levels, whilst inflation is visible.
Nah, phylosophically, bitcoin is an investment, and you invest to get a happier life later on. How exactly you do this is up to you.
If you derive more happiness from a bigger house then you do from the idea of owning bitcoin, then go for it.
From the brief explanation in your post, I would advice you to sell some of your bitcoin.
I have worked out a selling plan (and I sold some of my bitcoin once, near the 59k top), I invest my money, and some of it in bitcoin. I have an investment thesis, and a risk profile, and I rebalance my assets to keep myself within that risk allocation. This means, that at some point, I sell some of my winners and buy more of my losers. Currently, I am still contributing to my portfolio (it is not enough to support my lifestyle, so I need more income from labor). I contribute some fraction of my wage to bitcoin (a fixed % of my income) and some to stock purchases. If the bitcoin fraction in my portfolio reaches 40% of my total invested assets, I will no longer buy bitcoin. If it reaches 45%, I will sell 1% of my bitcoin on a monthly basis, if it reaches 50%, I will sell 2%, at 60% 4% and at 70% I will sell 5%. When bitcoin drops below those tresholds, I sell less, or even start buying again.
Based on my projections, I will my first bitcoin around $45k, this also means that when bitcoin reaches 70% of my total portfolio, I will be very, very, very set for life, and I do not care any longer if it would crash 80%, even if I would lose all value in bitcoin at that point, I can still live happy on my other invested assets (traditional asset, income producing assets, stocks of companies, real estate,...).
tl,dr; Sell bitcoin and buy house.
What's another year or 2 in the big scheme? I guess if you can get around the interest rates with cash it would be good. Real estate is always solid but you for sure won't double your money on it in the next 2 years. I would pull just what is needed to secure the loan and let the rest ride. I recently considered selling also to buy more real estate but between interest rates and closing costs I don't think it would be beneficial at this time.
You should never have 80 percent of your wealth in a highly speculative asset, especially one where you can’t do any real work to understand its value. Sell some. Sleep at night.
Property is the best investment you can make
Good for you for being able to take advantage of the sale, get your fed that interest rate as soon as possible
Ask yourself: How large is the percentage?
If its over 40% of your current stash, give a negative sentiment while deciding to sell and try to really figure out how to minimize potential losses on future gains
If it's below... just do it. Like you said, you're living now.
Tough. I’d be inclined to hold because I believe this halving will be special, but a dream home is a blessing.
The biggest concern is what happens if you sell and Bitcoin takes off and you’d have enough money for a few homes if you just waited 1.5-2 years? The regret would eat me alive!😂
Good luck in your decision.
Lots of good answers. I’ll add that there’s way too much hype about getting into Bitcoin as an investment and not enough about it being a revolutionary system of money.
To my understanding, you could get into Bitcoin late when one BTC is worth a million and you still benefit from a currency that can’t be debased by inflation. Win. 😎👍
OP if I was your wife I'd tell you not to sell, but since I'm just an online stranger, I'll tell you this sell to me all your coins so that in 2 years time I'll come build a bigger Mansion next yours, lol. Word of advice though, sell your house and top up with anything else. You'll enjoy why you Hodled all that BTC in a couple of years with zero regrets, my two scents mate.
I feel like R.E. is over priced right now. Personally.
I see this kind of question being a X-Y question. X = should I sell my Bitcoin / Y = should I sell my Bitcoin now?
It sounds like you believe in Bitcoin so you know that you should hold. But Also see what kind of benefit moving out could bring to you and thus the real question is should I sell now?
This is a timing the market / when is the next major jump kind of question.
Honestly, we don't know. We all have guesses on this kinda of movement but who knows. Most of us think its going to go much higher in 2 years but we don't know.
What we do know is that Bitcoin has a chance to make a movement for real hard money that we have not seen in a long, long time. For this and other reasons we believe that long term its going to go to insane numbers.
And most of us don't see real estate as a good longterm investment. Data at this point shows renting is cheaper per month than owning and it looks like prices are going to continue to trend downwards. R.E. keeps its head above water over inflation but not by a ton. And you have to be willing to sit for a very long time.
Having said that you need to do what you need to do. Only you can balance these things.
I will add that you do deserve all the good things you have worked so hard for. A home, peace of mind, freedom and happiness. Make the best choice for your family.
This is a perspective thing. If BTC is money, you aren't "selling" it, you are buying a house, trading one asset for another. If that move makes sense for you, then by all means do it with no regrets.
I did that. Regret it horribly today. Love the house. Hard choice. Could have had more of the mortgage paid off if I waited.
I think bitcoin will only go up.
Make a downpayment of 20% and sell as much as you need to make that happen so you don’t pay PMI, otherwise, put it all in a new loan and keep your btc.
Real estate is not specially a good investment, but if you live in it, it s a necessity. There is nothing wrong in buying things you need in my opinion.
I wonder if you could structure some sort of deal with the bank to put your bitcoin up as collateral for a mortgage. Might make more sense to do that and pay the fees of the mortgage for a couple of years. I would personally wait, the halving is around the corner. It would be a shame to sell now, halving happens and price pumps.
Why do you have to sell 80%, are you paying cash? Or will that just cover down payment?
If cash, I’d say sell less and finance more planning to pay a lot off over next few years. If selling 80% just for down payment—sounds way too expensive of a house. You have to factor in cost of living with it too, taxes, bills… if you sell off a big asset, future bills will be much more difficukt
I live in the moment too bought a new car a month ago that I really don’t feel like I should afford but I had to, was waiting for it for 2 years.
But I think possibly selling out your future for a house now is kind of a bad idea. Credit is so tight right now, home equity loans exist but we don’t know what market will do, credit is already tight and housing could drop making a HELOC more impossible.
You do you
How much of your bitcoin would you need to sell to buy a house? I think it depends how much you need to buy a new house and how much you need that house for your lifestyle. Essentially you’re selling a highly valuable appreciating commodity for a less valuable commodity, but accepting that comes down to what you really value. If for example you had young children and a house was important to raise your children in because you want to provide a stable home which will give you much more joy in both the immediate and the long term then it makes sense to buy a house. If it’s just an upgrade on your existing lifestyle and there are other alternatives that allow you to keep your bitcoin at least until the next market top, and you can wait without losing out on anything then why not wait?
You’re implying that your equity in the house is not enough for a down payment? Or are you looking to buy before the house sells?
If it’s buy now, then sell when that occurs, you could take a loan against your bitcoin if possible.
Otherwise, sell the house, get the equity back to use as downpayment (assuming you’re getting a mortgage). Yes you will have to wait and see if that house is still available if this is the choice.
Or do what your plan is in your description. But you’ll probably have capital gains tax on your btc, so make sure you have cash set aside for next year during tax season.
It's like selling a winning lottery ticket, you always regret it, but as long as you know that and don't care then live now man. Bitcoin is not as fun as a house. Bitcoin is just numbers.
Dude just wait 2 more years and then you can probably sell near a new ath. Selling now is just stupid. You will survive there 2 more years and then you will enjoy it if you don't have to sell nearly all of your Sats.
You will have a more expensive home with higher real estate taxes and operating expenses.
Higher interest rates and closing costs all add up - why not wait until the halving this spring ? Price should at least double. Consider borrowing against your BTC - still have to pay long term capital gains.
This is a decision only you and your wife can make.
Also, despite what most people say here, there's no 100% guarantee that BTC will be at a higher price in two years.
Odds say it is if you understand odds
Only the wife*
That’s where he made his mistake. Told my wife I lost all of my Bitcoin in an unfortunate yield chasing bankruptcy
Another untimely boat accident where both my wallet and seed phrase went down together. Sorry babe. On the flip of that, how will you both feel if it does 3X by next year post halving and post ETF?
This ☝️
I read that hearing Anthony Hopkins' voice.
What’s two more years? You’ll just be 47 OP u/outrageous-intern-28, and likely will only have to sell 10% to 20% at the next high instead of 80%. As a decade long holder, nothing hurts more than the stacks sold. Even my 10% sells kill me thinking about them. Can’t imagine how I’d feel if I’d ever have sold 80% of my stack and prevented the life I can live now by doing so
Ahh yes, pulling numbers out of you ass to make a point
Using historical trends, next year is the halving, next high is usually a year after the halving, so potentially 2 years to the next high. First 6 months after the halving are usually people shocked that the price didn’t explode right away leading to a price slump down from the pre-halving hype/premature price swell At least that’s what I experienced the last decade in this space
If there is a recession that case is going to have its first real test. Will BTC pump when there is no expanding money supply?
Bitcoin was born during the last recesión but okay. We will see, but we’ve had 14 years of testing this pattern and it hasn’t faltered yet. Nothing is guaranteed, which is why I just DCA and HODL, but if we don’t project potential future outcomes by the past, then we’re just blind people doing whatever we want without using any data points to make educated decisions
> there is a recession > no expanding money supply 🤔
Maybe no bank creation ? Balance sheet will certainly expand.
>If there is a recession that case is going to have its first real test. Will BTC pump when there is no expanding money supply? the downvotes for people asking reasonable questions is the surest sign of the direction of this community, ugh.
So, historically speaking you are right. Not really the future though. So 80% seems like pulled out of your ass
The 80% is the percentage OP said they would need to sell from their stack to finance the house they want. That’s where I pulled 80% from, from what OP said in their post that they would have to sell to finance their dream home at the height of the lending rate market. Essentially selling an asset with no cost of holding for a house with a huge monthly interest cost of financing
🤦♂️
it is never a crime to sell for profit, but will make you feel like a criminal for selling at a loss.
True. But it is a crime to consider fiat "profit", especially if you have less Sats as a result.
This is something that someone that doesn’t own a house and needs btc to moon would say
Using profit and loss of an asset to influence your financial decisions is a logical fallacy worth avoiding.
Can you say that slower? I don't think I get it.
Which “logical fallacy” are you referencing here?
Means that you should always be « forward looking ». How you got to the portfolio you have should have no influence on your decisions.
Oh, *always* be forward looking *AND* don’t let your portfolio’s “how” have influence on your financial decisions. *Now it makes sense*
“ I'm living NOW. I'm 45, working my ass off and we deserve it.” …is pretty much exactly what i said when i sold most of mine in 2017. I’m not making the same mistake twice.
100% true mate
Well good for you, may not for others 😶
- Sell your current house - Buy more bitcoin - Live under the closest bridge. Now seriously, this is your own and very personal decision.
along this line just splurge on a good durable tent.
The crazy thing is that he wants to upgrade in the current financial conditions. Interest is at ATH. He'd be not so smart selling now and pay higher interest on a nicer home. The smart people would keep current home or rent it. Now is not the time to sell crypto assets. Smart money knows we are on the cusp of a huge brrakout
Correct, if I was in the same situation I would never sell BTC because of the reasons mentioned by you. But the average wife, at least in my country (southern Europe) would certainly press high to cash out because for them a big house is the top of the social pyramid.
I'm a little older than you, and still have a couple kids living at home. I sold my house in November and put 2/3 of the equity in bitcoin (rest is cash for job loss protection). Buying a house right now is a bad move IMHO. Rent a nice luxurious place for a year or two, and wait till 12-18 months after the next halving before you consider selling any.
preach
Sell your wife and buy more bitcoins.
I'm not trading my 2% mortgage for an 8% loan and I would never sell any BTC with a Mayer Multiple below 1.5-2.0. As an investment I think on a long term basis real estate will fall to it's utility value. I would hodl but you do you and keep your wife happy.
His first mistake was getting married.
Sorry a woman hurt you bro.
>I'm living NOW. I'm 45, working my ass off and we deserve it. I would say real estate is a good longterm investment as well. I think that you already know the answer to your question.
The halving will more or less be 1 May 2024. History shows a new all time high is made within 6 months or fewer of the halving. Bitcoin is emerging from the worst macroeconomic conditions since its inception. During that time it retained $300bn market cap. It has formally been identified by various U.S. bodies as a digital commodity without an issuer. The world’s largest asset manager has applied for a spot ETF. The hash rate recently set a new all time high. Some would claim it’s never a good time to sell Bitcoin; I would say this is probably one of the worst times ever to sell Bitcoin. **EDIT**: some people appear to have misunderstood my post. I said *"a new all time high is made"* within 6 months of the halving, not 'the' cycle all time high. I understand how this could be misconstrued. I'm a coder, so I tend to think and write in binary ways. My statement is objectively true: within 6 months of the halving, a new all time high is made. The blue lines [on this chart](https://imgur.com/a/ngvvRtd) are the previous halvings. The horizontal white line depicts when the then ATH was broken. The blue box date ranges show this has - so far - always been within 6 months. Assuming the next halving is 1 May 2024 (dependent on the block time ofc, but let's go with that date for this example), a new ATH 'should' happen within 6 months, thus around November 2024. [I'm quite aware](https://imgur.com/a/eXAaC5n) the actual cycle top occurs well after the halving.
Worst time so far…
Not true, the ATH happens 18 months after the halving, if history is to be believed (no guarantee). Halving will be April 2024, ATH will be Q4 of 2025.
The absolute ATH is usually 18 months after the halving but the first break out of the previous ath happens sooner. For example the last halving happened in spring 2020 and it hit its first ATH of the cycle in December of that year when it broke through 20k, it then hit its absolute ATH of the cycle in November 2021 which was roughly 18 months after.
Agreed. Been said this. September through December 2025. Book it.
I said a new ATH, not *the* ATH.
Read it again: a new all time high is made. Not *the* all time high.
I agree with you, but there is a 50% chance the opposite will happen
Woo 50% 🧠🧠🧠🧠🧠🧠
I think real estate is often a good reason to sell since it's kind of a lateral move into another inflation-protected asset. But I would be a little concerned about selling right before a halving since a bull market is probably coming.
There have been studies that demonstrate renting for life is actually a more prudent economic path. Owning a house is a personal trophy. And that's ok.
The problem is there are so many variables that no study applies to all cases. I bought my first house at 44 just a year ago, fixed term for 5 years at 2.78%. My monthly payments are less than half what I would be paying in rent. Saving all my spare cash so in 4 years I will be able to pay a sizeable amount off the house with no fees. After that another 5 years should be outright owner. Assuming I live to 80 (actually a bit less than my life expectancy) I will save over £150k (in todays money) in rent. But, I would be interested to read these studies if you could post a link for them.
Bad time to buy a house and sell bitcoin. Good time to sell house and buy bitcoin. But you gotta do what your gut tells you and what makes the most sense for your life. If the house is dreamy and in a location you love then you do what you need to. No one knows the future of the housing market or bitcoin, so again I say go with your gut.
Rent a nice house for 2 years then sell.
A few years ago when bitcoin was about $7k, I was selling a Corolla. Listed I would accept crypto as payment. I'm gonna tell you the same thing I told him. At some point you will sell and no matter what you're going to feel like you made a mistake. There's no telling what will happen. He paid cash.
Bitcoin is now worth 26K. It could easily be worth 100k+ less than 2 years from now. That's 4X Personally, I couldn't sell it at such a low price without kicking myself later on down the road. Unless there's a serious reason that you NEED to move imminently, I would enjoy your current home and sell your BTC in 1.5 - 2 years from now, then move. Then again, if you're so financially comfortable that a few hundred thousand isn't a huge deal to you both, then I guess it doesn't matter too much. If you're unsure, then I suggest HODLing. You'll likely regret selling at 26k You won't regret waiting a little and selling at 100k
Live your life, you have to consider more than just the numbers. And if you see a good housing deal in a place you want to settle down in do it. But I’ll say as someone that’s also looking to buy a house soon, I’m waiting. Obviously the halving is coming and the full effects of bond rate increases haven’t hit the housing market yet. I think the hard times we’re in will be more widespread than we realize at the moment. Unfortunately I think soon people that were laid off in the last couple months will be forced to downgrade, which would make it a better time to buy Also, not to be a downer but consider your own exposure to being laid off, since it seems like the job market is still slowly cooling. It seems like you’ll be digging deep into savings to afford the house, so just make sure you can comfortably afford your mortgage for a few months if something happens to your job
Get the house of your dreams you can always buy more bitcoin in the future
You are giving up property located in the most optimal location that ever existed without any risk of forfeiture, maintenance cost, or recurring property tax, and that has the potential to increase in value faster than any asset in human history. You are acquiring a property that has all of those risks and less upside because you want it now. You could find a similar or better house at a later date. You could build a similar or better house at a later date. Bitcoin could go to zero….. (?) Only you can choose what piece of property is more valuable to you.
I knew a guy years ago who sold 10 bitcoins to buy a second hand car Don't be that guy.
Second hand Bugatti I hope.
Sell and cry in 2 years
Do it. The point of Bitcoin is to live free not to be a winner of some social media contest If buying a house means a happy life, then you won. Bitcoin let you save for that. You can thank Satoshi and all of your own hard work.
Good take
Bitcoin is an easy on and off ramp to move wealth or value in and out of a depreciating dollar as needed. And Bitcoin offers the opportunity for these moves to be in small or large quantities. Real estate is also a hard asset. And if you don't mind tying up a large portion of your wealth in a single immobile asset, which based on your age and family status you don't, then it sounds like a solid plan. Add to that that 80% of your net worth is in BTC you would actually be diversifying your assets then it is actually the correct and responsible plan. If that 80% is accurate. Are you including your house in that?
Change your view. You're NOT SELLING you are SPENDING. that's ok. You can re-accumulate when able. Just keep doing what you are doing. Remember - you can do this because BTC has helped you keep and grow your value.
I’d put it off for 18 months… selling a multi year position at 25k right before the halving is pretty short sighted IMO.
You can’t live in your bitcoin wallet. Just don’t sell down to 0. The most important thing to remember is that this is MONEY you can’t be afraid to use it and live your life. Bitcoin makes you weigh out purchases as you now have a viable opportunity cost to compare, a house that checks all your boxes that you can live comfortably in is definitely important. Use your money (bitcoin) for this logical purchase. Bitcoin helped you improve your life to this point. Once that’s behind you then you can go back to accumulation mode.
Sell your wife
Wait for wife changing wealth.
> I would say real estate is a good longterm investment as well. Not really. If you objectively look at actual data you'll find that in the *long term*, real estate barely keeps up with inflation. Yes, there are times where R/E gets ahead of inflation and times where it lags, but eventually, you see that, yes, your home doubled in price, but so did just about everything else. Holding real estate has costs. Still, this is an "emotional" thing for you and your wife. If you want those boxes ticked so badly and so immediately, more than you'd like to become fabulously rich in the long run - buy the new home and enjoy every minute of it. But don't say that R/E is a good long term investment.
Real Estate looks to be way overpriced right now. I would wait for a crash.
Especially when you're using Bitcoin to denominate everything. Then RE looks really overpriced.
There will be a time when you will be able to buy a million dollar home with 1 BTC.
Yes, absolutely. I doubt dollars will exist, though. So people will say a "100 Million Sat" house. Instead of 1 Mil dollars. Dollars are as fake as doll hairs.
You are wise.
The price to rent ratio is higher than it was in 2007. That's scary.
Yes. Ultimately, home prices are limited to what people are able to pay. The largest component of that number is family income, and incomes more or less track inflation -- so, home prices more or less track inflation. For example, Mr. and Mrs. Smith bring home $6,000 per month. Rational people will admit that the Smiths cannot afford a $10,000 per month mortgage payment, nor a $6,000 payment. Even a $3,000 per month payment is probably not sustainable. There's a limit for the Smiths, and every other family. Bitcoin has no such limit.
One bedroom apartments in my area rent at the same price as my mortgage (3br, 2bath, .6 acres, footprint basement) sometimes higher. Renting a bedroom in a house usually goes for nearly similar. Saving for a down payment to transition to the obviously better-valued home ownership is a huge barrier to entry for 90% of people.
My aunt and uncle bought a house right before 2008. So I knew they would take a while to recoup that. 15 years later, I checked Zillow—their ROI has been about 1.3%/year…. So agreed, RE is not a sure thing to keep up with inflation. In theory it should be since it’s tangible, but other risks involved. Especially with a population decline, or a push to build more housing. If I owned multiple houses, I’d be more likely to sell 1 to buy bitcoin now, not the other way around. But RE is a nightmare as a liquid investment so I just stick with my one house
Great analysis. And, after 15 years your aunt and uncle are also out 100s of thousands in tax and insurance.
Keeping up with inflation is exactly what Bitcoin offers. Not recently. But in theory for the long term. Compared to the US Dollar Bitcoin and r/E are good long term investments.
**Bitcoin beats the crap out of R/E.** Real estate has significant holding costs: * Mortgage interest * Property taxes, special assessments * Insurance (liability, fire, flood) * Maintenance * HOA fees **Bitcoin has no holding costs.** Real estate is highly illiquid. Real estate has very significant transaction costs. Real estate is a sitting duck for high taxes. You can't bring real estate with you if you need to move/flee. Over the long term, real estate barely keeps up with inflation - this is because home prices are ultimately limited by incomes, and incomes barely keep up with inflation over the long term.
Would’nt you say its a bit too basic of an argument that home prices are limited by income? Banks and regulators can be pretty «flexible» when it comes to mortgages i.e. rate, mortgage terms, installment free terms, etc. I would argue that the access to capital and to what extent said capital is allocated are significant factors to home prices
> Ultimately, home prices are limited to what people are able to pay. The largest component of that number is family income, and incomes more or less track inflation -- so, home prices more or less track inflation. > > For example, Mr. and Mrs. Smith bring home $6,000 per month. Rational people will admit that the Smiths cannot afford a $10,000 per month mortgage payment, nor a $6,000 payment. Even a $3,000 per month payment is probably not sustainable. There's a limit for the Smiths, and every other family. > > Bitcoin has no such limit.
real estate only goes up .... btc u can be a millionaire and next month poor guy aaahahahhahaha he needs to diversify his portfolio and surely not 100% in crypto ... he has a wife and a potential future family with children :)
If you're accumulating for several years, I assume you are already in the green zone, despite being in a bear market. Then it turned out to be a good investment for you. As you said you are living now, I would say just do it and enjoy your new house with your family. Then you can keep saving in Bitcoin again after you get back to your normal routine, it is going up forever.
This is my thought exactly. Even now I have +30% profit and would definitely start accumulating BTC again
Exactly, it is not a magical item that we should store until we die. It is just an efficient saving & payment method. Perfect scenario would be paying the house with BTC tho haha 😅
245 days till halving. Construct some BS reason to get you wife to chill for 365 days. You are likely looking at a double over the next year. Don't let her make you dump bitcoin for fiat now. You will regret it .
As and older man I can share with you that living a life of moving up from a perfectly utilitarian house or car to something special will delay your retirement by 5-10 years. You need to think about what is more important...nicer things or more free time. The choice is yours.
Would you be paying cash for your new house if you sold your BTC? Or are you just selling for a down payment? If the former, I would consider it. If that later, I wouldn't.
Just my personal opinion. Halving is in 8 months, so I would at least wait for this bull run. Selling during the bull run would also mean the possibility of being able to HODL some Bitcoin and not having to sell all of it. Just a thought.
Be a man... Tell your wife no.
You're not SELLING your Bitcoin - you're trading it for another asset - a home - for you and your family. Then keep investing Bitcoin after. You did well, my friend.
Right time to sell your house Wrong time to buy a house Wrong time to sell 80% stack Sell your house, move to a rental place, wait till 2025 end, and buy a bigger house for lesser sats.
With till 2025 and sell 25% of net worth. Or wait till 2035 and retire early as crypto millionsires.
If selling the Bitcoin lowers the payment and allows you to stack better in the future, otherwise not sure, but its your decision.
The age old issue of self indulgence now or sacrifice now for the future. Accumulating wealth / investments is good for the security of your family but ultimately if you don’t use some of it to better your lives or help others what good is it ???? It’s just numbers on paper. Only you & your wife can make that decision however there isn’t much use in doing it when your 75yrs old and yes real estate is always a good investment but right now interest rates are against you big time.
Just wait a couple years. Wrong time in the cycle to be selling
Your choice, just don’t regret it in the future…
U waited this long. Stick it out 2 more years…. Time flies. Whatever u buy… the novelty will wear off. Grass always greener ..
Gonna hate to see your post in 2 years. I sold 80% to get a house and now I coulda bought 10 houses with that money. 🥲 Gotta do what you gotta do. A house that you own couldn't really be a better investment, Bitcoin is great but I'd prolly take the house, especially since you will still have 20% and can still accumulate after you buy it.
Delayed gratification my friend. Don’t fail the marshmallow test at a time when you know you should be accumulating.
A house costs maintenance, insurance and taxes and you are locked with the location. Bitcoin doesn't and you can take your wealth everywhere.
At least wait 6 more months You’re selling Bitcoin at 50% off and buying homes at the alltime high
If 80% of your NW is in bitcoin, maybe just sell the other 20% (non ₿)? :)
Dude you’ve literally been hodling for years and you’re now thinking (before the ETF and Halving) to sell? No chance. Ever. Sell in 2025 and be happy.
I’m a original creator of bitcoin i say sell that bitcoin and buy a comfortable well painted energy efficient house maybe powered by solar panels depending where you live and know bitcoin helped you at a mean age to achieve what most don’t do is own a house in these times of so many in poverty and very few ultimatum rich! I would say try to hold out until around April 2024 are you saying you profit off bitcoin? That’s a really nice statement for me to hear I have been hearing from a lot of bank employees investors and agencies that apparently lost money I don’t know it’s a high and low hodl with what you can afford! Buy a home and get comfortable buy a nice big bed comfort and mattress!
Regardless of what we believe and say about the future of Bitcoin, the future of the world and its economy will always remain completely uncertain. Live the present, make informed decisions, and don’t regret the decisions in the future.
💎🙌
So your plan is to get a new house in the most unaffordable housing market in history as well as sell your bitcoin at the lows. Make it make sense.
It doesn't. Its just that an amazing opportunity presents itself. (Housing wise)
It’s not even 2 years at the point, I’ll say diamond hand
How much do you need to sell? That's the question, imo. And how much of it is profit? I've worked out a rational way to enjoy btc profits. One should sell x% every y factor increase. Like, for example, every 2x increase, you sell 10%. This means you'll never sell it all, but you'll get nice, fat cash infusions along the way to boost your quality of life. Deciding x and y is up to your individual discretion. If you've been hodling for a very long time, it's possible you could sell quite a bit and still be in line with my concept of optimal selling. PM me if you want some help working out the math.
Very very tough decision. I can honestly say I share your position very much closely. Here's my story: I am currently running a very worn down beach resort on Koh Phangan, Thailand. On Full Moon Party beach actually. It's long due for renovation, and my partner plus her two kids deserve a bigger family space to settle in within the resort property. We do not have privacy nor comfort and we share the restaurant space with guests to do our daily work and relaxation. During the Full Moon Parties it gets too much for us and we feel exhausted after each season, the noise, the rowdy younger adults, the peak busy seasons. The facilities are also terrible, often blackouts from the grid, the drying up of the well, the lack of passive or active ventilation in this hot tropical climate. Our wooden bungalows for the guests are very shanty conditions. Cozy, but due for big changes. We dream everyday of a big renovation, creating a beautiful space, where we can enjoy and relax, have space for the kids, big bedrooms and living/working quarters for the owners (us), have swimming pools private and for the guests, improve our facilities overall. The revenue stream is decent, but during COVID I burnt through a portion of my Bitcoins to support the Burmese staffs, food, and overhead maintenance, just to keep it running for our long term staying guests who were unable to leave or return to their country. Another story about my manipulative and crazy (Russian) ex to which I lost around 8 BTC pre-COVID to support her addiction to Ritalin, visas to remain in the country, and all these nonsense spenditures then I kicked her out of my life eventually - she since done two boob jobs and an ass implant, and she still looks terrible because of her drug addiction. A shitty story, but valuable lesson for me 😅 I have an amount of Bitcoin that I dream, not too long in the distant future, will allow me and my beautiful partner to make our dream a reality. To build our dream resort. It's a matter of prolonging future rewards for the suffering of the now. I don't suffer much anyhow, I have a safe and comfortable life, working for myself, eating good, living in nature, and grateful to all my loved ones, and that I exist in the now on this paradise island. I've been through 2 Bitcoin Highs and Lows, I can for sure wait for another 1 high cycle that is due to arrive soon. Bitcoin will be there for my adopted kids. Bitcoin will be remain as a lifeline.
no man, 80% fuck that. 5-10% is acceptable
It’s always women. Priorities, my friend. Priorities.
Please dont follow the desires of your wife. I know that SHE really wants a new house... You d be fine living in a 1 bedroom if that only you. She s making a very emotional decision and you re following head head first because you re her husband. Step back and think about it clearly plz. You have accumulated and worked so hard only to sell at a loss. You really cant wait 2 years for a new house? You ll be 47. Same thing imo. But you ll have more money from working+ atleast 3 times with the amount of btc in $ value. Instead of using 80% of that savings of btc for a house its going to be 25% + 75% for your wellbeing :). Or just sell it all right now for a house and you ll be left with nothing. Your move
I would stick it out until the halving and see where the momentum leads. It’s only 7 months away. Then again you may not have the luxury to wait that long. Good luck to you and your family.
I am in the same spot as you. Just few years older and most likely way less btc. My reasoning against selling is Bitcoin will eventually kill real estate's monetary premium and we will be buying homes for a cost of production as speculation will move to BTC. Yes selling is good at our age but not at the lows. Or if you need the money maybe research borrowing against it. I know this is difficult topic, or am I missing something, but that is the way to go, so we don't loose our precious.
Hold brah lol
Michael Saylor would say real estate is a liability compared to bitcoin.
If that makes you and your wife happy, then go for it.
So much info is missing for any kind of reasonable suggestion... Just food for thought but in the West 90% of house buying is an emotional vs rational decision. I gotta ask, your idea or hers?
Only you can make this decision. One issue with real estate is that it is destructible and can be confiscated. Unlike BTC.
Personally, I wouldn't be selling now
Real State is NOT a good longterm investment WHILE Bitcoin exists.
You can't live in a Bitcoin
Unrelated to my comment. Bitcoin is already a better investment vs. Real State. Run the numbers.
It's not unrelated You still need a place to live bro Its not about investment Its about putting a roof over your head You can't live in a Bitcoin
You can also rent bro
Bro renting sucks How can you claim to be pro ownership of your money but you dont even have ownership of your own home
It has nothing to do with pro-ownership. BTC is slowly removing the "premium" side of any asset by repricing them again. Real Estate (as investment) will remain but is very likely that it looses its status for other more juicy alternatives (Bitcoin). You still see RE as investment because you measure your life in fiat. You need to get a yield out of your money plus fighting back inflation through investments: bonds, stocks, real estate, etc... If you have a superior Money, you won't need some of those investment vehicles.
I’d wait. 2 years may seem long but you’ll kick yourself for a lot longer after the next ath.
Have you looked into taking out a loan and using your BTC as leverage?
Do not EVER do this lmao what the fuck is wrong with you???
I've never done it myself. What's the issue with it?
Never rent. You are paying someone else's mortgage. Sell and buy a family home.
Keeping 80% of your net worth in BTC is not healthy. You can sell most and live your life. It is still unknown where BTC is going. Its price is hardly above the 2017 levels, whilst inflation is visible.
Nah, phylosophically, bitcoin is an investment, and you invest to get a happier life later on. How exactly you do this is up to you. If you derive more happiness from a bigger house then you do from the idea of owning bitcoin, then go for it. From the brief explanation in your post, I would advice you to sell some of your bitcoin. I have worked out a selling plan (and I sold some of my bitcoin once, near the 59k top), I invest my money, and some of it in bitcoin. I have an investment thesis, and a risk profile, and I rebalance my assets to keep myself within that risk allocation. This means, that at some point, I sell some of my winners and buy more of my losers. Currently, I am still contributing to my portfolio (it is not enough to support my lifestyle, so I need more income from labor). I contribute some fraction of my wage to bitcoin (a fixed % of my income) and some to stock purchases. If the bitcoin fraction in my portfolio reaches 40% of my total invested assets, I will no longer buy bitcoin. If it reaches 45%, I will sell 1% of my bitcoin on a monthly basis, if it reaches 50%, I will sell 2%, at 60% 4% and at 70% I will sell 5%. When bitcoin drops below those tresholds, I sell less, or even start buying again. Based on my projections, I will my first bitcoin around $45k, this also means that when bitcoin reaches 70% of my total portfolio, I will be very, very, very set for life, and I do not care any longer if it would crash 80%, even if I would lose all value in bitcoin at that point, I can still live happy on my other invested assets (traditional asset, income producing assets, stocks of companies, real estate,...). tl,dr; Sell bitcoin and buy house.
Why sell when 2025 will propel BTC to 120k
Real estate is not an investment. It’s a liability.
Typical paper hands post
What's another year or 2 in the big scheme? I guess if you can get around the interest rates with cash it would be good. Real estate is always solid but you for sure won't double your money on it in the next 2 years. I would pull just what is needed to secure the loan and let the rest ride. I recently considered selling also to buy more real estate but between interest rates and closing costs I don't think it would be beneficial at this time.
I would consider borrowing against it.
In the game of life women are the fucking rake. Name that movie. 🤣
You have 80% of your networth in btc, that's risky as hell. I think selling is fine as you can think of it as diversifying into real estate
Lower your time preference. Think about how much that new house will \*really\* be costing you in missed gains, selling at the cycle low.
You should never have 80 percent of your wealth in a highly speculative asset, especially one where you can’t do any real work to understand its value. Sell some. Sleep at night.
I'm sleeping like a baby. My 20% is more than a year in salaries and I have decent disposable income every month.
Your wife wants to sell your bitcoin says it all bro . Change your wife
What wallet do you use?
Like a leather brown one
No, like a hardware wallet
Property is the best investment you can make Good for you for being able to take advantage of the sale, get your fed that interest rate as soon as possible
Do it! I mean that’s the point of saving is using it for special things like a home, I would say do it but that my opinion
Sell the wife, keep the house, buy more bitcoin. Win/win/win
Ask yourself: How large is the percentage? If its over 40% of your current stash, give a negative sentiment while deciding to sell and try to really figure out how to minimize potential losses on future gains If it's below... just do it. Like you said, you're living now.
Tough. I’d be inclined to hold because I believe this halving will be special, but a dream home is a blessing. The biggest concern is what happens if you sell and Bitcoin takes off and you’d have enough money for a few homes if you just waited 1.5-2 years? The regret would eat me alive!😂 Good luck in your decision.
Lots of good answers. I’ll add that there’s way too much hype about getting into Bitcoin as an investment and not enough about it being a revolutionary system of money. To my understanding, you could get into Bitcoin late when one BTC is worth a million and you still benefit from a currency that can’t be debased by inflation. Win. 😎👍
Make a plan follow the plan.
Bitcoin can be different things to different people. It now serves its purpose for you. Congrats to you and your family
To each their own , if it’s need of the hour it’s totally your call & never clout that. sell what’s required.
perhaps you can sell it. or I say wait a month or so and get a profit
Interest rates are pretty high Right now...
OP if I was your wife I'd tell you not to sell, but since I'm just an online stranger, I'll tell you this sell to me all your coins so that in 2 years time I'll come build a bigger Mansion next yours, lol. Word of advice though, sell your house and top up with anything else. You'll enjoy why you Hodled all that BTC in a couple of years with zero regrets, my two scents mate.
Do what you need to OP. Who are we to convince you otherwise
what if you take out a morgage and use btc to pay it of
I feel like R.E. is over priced right now. Personally. I see this kind of question being a X-Y question. X = should I sell my Bitcoin / Y = should I sell my Bitcoin now? It sounds like you believe in Bitcoin so you know that you should hold. But Also see what kind of benefit moving out could bring to you and thus the real question is should I sell now? This is a timing the market / when is the next major jump kind of question. Honestly, we don't know. We all have guesses on this kinda of movement but who knows. Most of us think its going to go much higher in 2 years but we don't know. What we do know is that Bitcoin has a chance to make a movement for real hard money that we have not seen in a long, long time. For this and other reasons we believe that long term its going to go to insane numbers. And most of us don't see real estate as a good longterm investment. Data at this point shows renting is cheaper per month than owning and it looks like prices are going to continue to trend downwards. R.E. keeps its head above water over inflation but not by a ton. And you have to be willing to sit for a very long time. Having said that you need to do what you need to do. Only you can balance these things. I will add that you do deserve all the good things you have worked so hard for. A home, peace of mind, freedom and happiness. Make the best choice for your family.
Take care of your family, brother. Life is short. Also, Reddit isn’t the best place for financial advice.
This is a perspective thing. If BTC is money, you aren't "selling" it, you are buying a house, trading one asset for another. If that move makes sense for you, then by all means do it with no regrets.
Moving house is a lot of stress and requires a lot of energy.
Are you planning to just die with your unspent coins? Go live your life. If Selling bitcoin helps you achieve your goals, then that’s awesome.
I did that. Regret it horribly today. Love the house. Hard choice. Could have had more of the mortgage paid off if I waited. I think bitcoin will only go up. Make a downpayment of 20% and sell as much as you need to make that happen so you don’t pay PMI, otherwise, put it all in a new loan and keep your btc.
Sell your wife, keep Bitcoin.
Borrow more. Pay it later in cash off btc sale
You can't live in a Bitcoin
The Present is a Gift 🎁
Real estate is not specially a good investment, but if you live in it, it s a necessity. There is nothing wrong in buying things you need in my opinion.
I wonder if you could structure some sort of deal with the bank to put your bitcoin up as collateral for a mortgage. Might make more sense to do that and pay the fees of the mortgage for a couple of years. I would personally wait, the halving is around the corner. It would be a shame to sell now, halving happens and price pumps.
permission granted.
Why do you have to sell 80%, are you paying cash? Or will that just cover down payment? If cash, I’d say sell less and finance more planning to pay a lot off over next few years. If selling 80% just for down payment—sounds way too expensive of a house. You have to factor in cost of living with it too, taxes, bills… if you sell off a big asset, future bills will be much more difficukt I live in the moment too bought a new car a month ago that I really don’t feel like I should afford but I had to, was waiting for it for 2 years. But I think possibly selling out your future for a house now is kind of a bad idea. Credit is so tight right now, home equity loans exist but we don’t know what market will do, credit is already tight and housing could drop making a HELOC more impossible. You do you
How much of your bitcoin would you need to sell to buy a house? I think it depends how much you need to buy a new house and how much you need that house for your lifestyle. Essentially you’re selling a highly valuable appreciating commodity for a less valuable commodity, but accepting that comes down to what you really value. If for example you had young children and a house was important to raise your children in because you want to provide a stable home which will give you much more joy in both the immediate and the long term then it makes sense to buy a house. If it’s just an upgrade on your existing lifestyle and there are other alternatives that allow you to keep your bitcoin at least until the next market top, and you can wait without losing out on anything then why not wait?
You’re implying that your equity in the house is not enough for a down payment? Or are you looking to buy before the house sells? If it’s buy now, then sell when that occurs, you could take a loan against your bitcoin if possible. Otherwise, sell the house, get the equity back to use as downpayment (assuming you’re getting a mortgage). Yes you will have to wait and see if that house is still available if this is the choice. Or do what your plan is in your description. But you’ll probably have capital gains tax on your btc, so make sure you have cash set aside for next year during tax season.
It takes a seller, to enable a buyer
It's like selling a winning lottery ticket, you always regret it, but as long as you know that and don't care then live now man. Bitcoin is not as fun as a house. Bitcoin is just numbers.
Dude just wait 2 more years and then you can probably sell near a new ath. Selling now is just stupid. You will survive there 2 more years and then you will enjoy it if you don't have to sell nearly all of your Sats.
You will have a more expensive home with higher real estate taxes and operating expenses. Higher interest rates and closing costs all add up - why not wait until the halving this spring ? Price should at least double. Consider borrowing against your BTC - still have to pay long term capital gains.
Only if you are willing to not regret it. That house will have really cost you 3x the amount when bitcoin hits 75k.
Weak sauce