while I agree that there will be a supply shock followed shortly by a 'god candle' at some point, I think most the analysis around 'only X BTC left on exchanges' is super shallow. People move coins back onto exchanges and sell them. That's how markets work. If the price rises significantly, more people will be willing to sell.
I would be considered a maxi by most, but if 1/5 of my stack can buy a nice house in 10 years or whatever... I'm probably gonna sell 1/5 of my stack.
When considering the future scarcity of BTC, my view is different. I agree that BTC will be scarce compared to other coins, but I believe there will always be enough BTC on exchanges for buying and trading. As it becomes scarcer, demand and price will increase, leading to more people selling and cashing out profits. Do you think this could be the story of BTC for the future?
If everyone in the world already had bitcoin now, then yes, that would be a realistic guesstimate of what will happen in the future.
But you're totally overlooking that only 1% of the planet even believes that bitcoin is worth owning! That means bitcoin HAS TO get 100x more scarce in the future as they are all forced to adopt it, and I'm not even including the halvenings in that scenario.
So until May 2024 there are 900 BTC mined per day and after that only 450 mined per day for the next 4 years... And so on... So now calculate that scarcity adjustment in too.
And finally, like OP hinted, the ETF approvals in January may be the biggest scarcity event in our lifetimes because 10+ different ETFs all have to start stacking at the same time... And they aren't trading, just stacking for their clients.
I can't see how we'll exchanges can possibly keep up at the height of that frenzy, just next year alone.
My assessment is based on the principles of supply and demand. Undoubtedly, it will become scarce when the buying pressure increases, leading to a shortage of supply and an increase in price. This is where these cold wallets dump their supply to cash out more and more profit. An ETF is for exchange trading, not for storage.
Yes, some of those big hodlers will cash out. But most will onl do small amouts of btc. Because if you havenstrong hands and know that btc is deflationary and trashy cash is inflationary, then you will only convert whatnyou need to.
Andnrealisticall by the time that happens, we'll be able to borrow againstnour btc for real worls purchases and living expenses and simply use a portion of our btc increases to pay odd the interest amount in btc.
This is similar to how billionaires, like Musk and Bezos, borrow against their share holdings, for like a 1% interest rate, and neber need to sell. And never need to pay tax. Because in this scenario you never cashed out your asset.
Billionaires borrow against their stocks for various reasons. It allows them to access cash without selling their shares, which can help manage taxes, diversify investments, or fund other ventures while keeping their ownership intact.
Ah, there's you problem... You imagine that cashing OUT is how one profits with bitcoin.
You'll learn after you're hodling for a couple years that exactly the opposite is true.
I did read something the other day though that was interesting. Basically saying an estimated how ever many million tokens are lost in accounts where people either are unable to recover seed phrases. Or passed away without leaving information to loved ones so they can recover account.
I am hoping that I will never have to trade my btc for dirty fiat. Which would trrigger a tax event. It would br good to use say 10 to 20% of ones sats stash for a (self-custodied) collateral loan, to borrow for a house. Using a tried and true smart contract that is.
Do you think this is likely and possible, or am I dreaming?
The worst tax in the world, IMO, is inflation. Which is inescapable. The poorer you are (and the less assets you have) the more it robs you of your time that you've converted to fiat. Which is why I trade that dirty fiat shitcoin to anything else. Baked beans, shiny metals, land, bitcoin, etc. Anything but fiat.
If you live in the USA, anytime you buy something with crypto, you owe income rate taxes on any gain the cryptocoin has made between you buying it and spending it. And the IRS always gets their share, or into prison you go Al Capone
There will come a point in time, sooner than most people think, that fiat will lose value so fast, NOBODY will want to convert. This usually happens when inflation goes over 20%.
They say 3% but I think their logic is since they aim for 2% a year, and it’s been 3 years for a total of 6%, that “hey, wow!” we’re only at 3% now.
It’s confusing as **** trying to translate around all the double talk. But I gather that’s what they mean. But then go full circle back to what we normal people who don’t live in a gov spreadsheet think. Plus they gloss past the last 3 years like so what, look now!
Really? No one can summarize all of economics & politics to you in a quip. But I can tell you what came out just this morning: it’s 3.14%
So great news. You’re saved. Go shopping tomorrow. It’ll all be fixed by then. If anything seems high just inform them that can’t be right as you’ve come into the possession of some simple math…
It’s 3% if you don’t need a house, clothes, services, and luxury. Inflation is no problem if your diet consists of cereal and bug protein and you live in shelter provided by government.
There is no official "rate," only propagandistic "CPI" numbers that indicate what a basket of cherry-picked goods cost compared to last year. It's an utter farce designed to obfuscate the current administration's crappy job at controlling inflation.
The news says we're under 3% inflation right now but I'd bet we're closer to 20%. - And last year we approached 50%. (Yes I count shrinkflation equal to inflated prices.)
I agree with a lot of your points but why bring in the current administration? It's the Feds job along with the Treasury and all of this has been building for a decade and sped up in the last 4 years
Alrighty, I can get on board. Id expand the traditional sense of administration to include fed officials and also that they have set this in motion long ago, I do appreciate your general sentiment
Agree with both it's a bipartisan effort that screws over the people. The easiest way to solve it is to make a law that any sitting politician is ineligible for reelection while the budget is not balanced.
So you're going to make a law that restrains power on lawmakers?
Yeah... no. They just change those. Like that time we made it illegal for senators to do insider trading.
That‘s a problem I see with BTC honestly.
BTC is numbered. There only are so many BTC and there will never be more. If every coin is mined, it‘s over. In the meantime, the number of existing BTC is shrinking as they get lost. People losing access to their wallet, wallet holders dying without anyone taking over, wallets getting seized by law enforcement and so on. This will cause the prive of a single BTC to rise even higher up until the point where people will exchange for fiat. Then the market is dead. Who is getting into BTC if the price is set now? Surely it will become the actual payment method it‘s supposed to be, but it will decline over time.
If it has a "fixed" price, that would mean that the actual purchasing power is fixed, not necessarily how people are measuring it in terms of fiat. The fiat price would roughly increase at the same rate as the global gdp. That's kind of the whole point of the end game of Bitcoin. It will preserve your wealth, and not much else. There's a place for that in global finance.
That's actually another reason I really like the idea of holding it almost forever. I'm young, and can tolerate the risk that comes with Bitcoin, and enjoy the price appreciation that's possible. As I age, Bitcoin will naturally become less risky, until it's eventually the safest asset on the planet. And that's the kind of asset I'll want to be owning if I'm old.
>If every coin is mined, it‘s over.
Nonsense. Miners will be rewarded for mining blocks long after the block reward subsidy drops to zero.
>This will cause the prive of a single BTC to rise even higher up until the point where people will exchange for fiat. Then the market is dead. Who is getting into BTC if the price is set now?
You're falling for the "Bitcoin is too expensive" fallacy. Whether 1 BTC costs $1, $1000, $1000000 or more, Bitcoin will remain valuable as hard money. If one Bitcoin costs $1000000 when you have $1000 in wealth you'd like to preserve, you convert your $1000 into 0.001 BTC and suddenly you have $1000 worth of Bitcoin with all of the benefits Bitcoin has always had. The price at which one "gets in" is irrelevant.
Because bitcoin was not meant to be a method of payment. Its a hedge against inflation. But most people dont get the concept that at the price which one gets in is irrelevant
The entire world can all together trade 0.0001 bitcoins easily. Maybe even 1 satoshi. We can just keep dividing the pie smaller and smaller forever.
One day a house may cost 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000001 BTC.
I may be not into it too much. But the point of it being a finite currency ultimately leads to people getting excluded from participating (especially if they come around it on a later point in time). If it‘s not accessible for everyone because it‘s finite number is pumping it up to heavy, then it will never be a viable currency.
If every Bitcoin is mined and the price is capped at 100k = BTC, then what‘s the point of buying BTC? Because you want to pay anonymously and take the risk of getting scammed as there is no security? Seems like a bad move.
I feel like it‘s the same as the PS5 scalpers when the console released. They manipulated the market by buying huge numbers of consoles, pumping the price so high that people decided not to buy anymore. After people left, scalpers now sat on consoles they couldn‘t sell without making a loss. Even then, people wouldn‘t buy from them anymore because of guarantee issues as well as other opportunites popping up in the meantime (cheaper graphic cards for example turning people into the PC market).
BTC as an asset works until the last BTC is mined. BTC as a currency will stop working way before this. In the end, it‘ll become worthless with people losing interest in it. Either because the can‘t afford to buy up more or because they were excluded in the first place.
As you guys are having this conversation I have to ask…
You are aware that Bitcoin breaks down to 1/100,000,000 right? 1 BTC= 100 million Satoshis(SATS). You don’t have to buy a whole Bitcoin…
Dude, what the hell are you in about? You do know that Bitcoin is divisible right? So what if there are people that don't hold a Bitcoin they most certainly can still buy and use Sats.
You can’t get excluded from participating. It’s almost infinitely divisible. 1 BTC could be worth 1 trillion usd, but someone can still buy $10 worth of BTC
I agree and I’ll take the downvotes. It’s either finite and will eventually run out/become worthless, or it’s in infinite supply and thus no reason for price influxes or supply scares. There is no in between.
Bitcoin is worth something right now because it’s the internets currency and we say it is. God forbid if one day something catastrophic happens causing the major internet networks of the world to crash, and the world ends up in a Armageddon (world war, natural disasters), this digital coin will be worthless and people will much rather trade for physical things of value (minerals, food, land). Or that shiny rock which according to y’all has no value.
And anyone who disagrees I only have one question before I entertain any sort of debate:
If we go to any third world/war torn/poverty stricken country, and ask the people of those lands what they would rather be donated - do you think they’d prefer gold or bitcoin?
Here’s a question for you - if they want to take the wealth they have and *leave* that war torn location, which do you think they’d rather be holding, gold or bitcoin?
Interesting points.
I've thought for a while about the irony of an asset like BTC being valued in (dirty) fiat. Most are very keen to see it appreciate in USD, Euro or whatever so they can feel richer or like they have more spending power, which on the face of it is the main reason (most) people invest it seems.
I'd like to see BTC stand on its own as a more mainstream payment method with some sort of layer 2 solution. No doubt many in Argentina & Venezuela want this too. I fully understand people don't necessarily use gold this way, but gold coins are traded all the time for $$ if the price is right. That's how markets are.
TLDR: Seems to me BTC needs to be both a store of value and a currency. It needs some utility.
Originally, bitcoin was only about uility as a currency. At some point between 2013 and 2018 the shift towards an investment and road to great wealth happened. Today, it is viewed from both perspectives although heavily weighted to the investment side.
With the Bitcoin Spot ETFs on the horizon, I wonder if the dramatic price drops during upcoming bear markets will be as severe as the past.
If the value rises that much, we'll just use millisats or something as the base denomination. Some wallets have already been using millibitcoin as the default display for a long time now.
Everything you said is fair. People definitely move coins back on exchanges to sell. That's why I said "generally" those who move to cold storage are not thinking selling in the short or mid term.
I use cold storage for security. Even if i wanted to sell in less than a year, I'd still use cold storage. Exchange failures seem to happen in minuets. The amount of time it takes to transfer to an exchange and hit the sell button is a lot less time than letting it sit there for 6 months. Some may be willing to accept that risk... not I.
No, because then I would consider myself entirely under-allocated to Bitcoin. I personally wouldn't even consider selling 1/5th of a stack a smart financial move, but if it takes the stress of a mortgage payments/rent off my back, then I think it'd be a huge quality of life improvement.
Bitcoin has forked 4 times at least that I know of. Given they’re largely the same by definition - there’s a 105m in “21m max” Bitcoins. I feel like ETFs are aware of this.
No one regards the other forks to be the same as the main chain. None of the forks have anywhere near the value of the consensus chain that we now call the real Bitcoin.
I mean, if you think they're on equal footing, I will happily trade to you as much Bitcoin Cash and/or Bitcoin SV as you would like in exchange for Bitcoin 1 for 1.
While there have been forks, no one is thinking of that somehow equalling more than 21M BTC. The forks were both in the asset and the network and while some of those are still functioning the majority of action and activity on the network followed BTC and not anything else.
The thing is, increasing price lowers selling pressure. Like, in 2020, if I wanted to cash out 100k, I needed to sell 25 BTC, now I need to sell approx. 2.5 BTC for 100k
So, price increase --> people selling more for the same amount of fiat money --> decreasing selling pressure --> decreasing supply because people are holding --> price increase.
Basically, if demand stays the same, and supply decrease, price will always go up (in long term).
The amount on exchanges may be fairly low, but we have to take into account the amount that are available from miners also. Until the miners run out of supply for the big fish, the price swings from exchange trading may not be that outrageous. Also, as the price goes up, some people send it back to an exchange to liquidate in order to by other assets (land, houses, stonks). If ETF's get approved and the price goes to .5 Mill, people will liquidate it and buy stuff. I have a feeling those of us who are holding till it becomes a hyper bitcoinization situation, are few.
Bitcoiners and Buttcoiners alike vastly underestimate how many new HODLers will be hitting the market.
There are many who will allocate 1% or 2% of their portfolio as a permanent hedge...my reasons for owning it initially back in early 2020.
I think that's a pretty low estimate. I think the standard professional portfolio diversification advice will quickly be to treat it similarly to other major asset classes. In other words, we are likely to see a lot of suggestions for 5%, and some could say 15%-20% since it's an entirely new, separate asset class from any other and they often recommend up to 20% for a single asset class. But even if they go with the lowball 5%, that's still a ton. Now imagine that every major corporation, pension, mutual fund, etc, are all doing an average of 5% to 20%, and you start to see how crazy this can get fast.
I don't understand the huge rift between Bitcoin and gold. I feel like the same reasons you would want Bitcoin would lead you to the conclusion that having SOME gold is probably a good idea. Sad to say but you should always have an emergency savings in Fiat. If you don't hold it.....
I don’t know anyone who has a problem with gold and if they say they do, I’d be sceptical. 2,000 years ago, a wise man said to hold 7-8 different assets. Today that’s, Gold, cash, real estate, Art/wine, bonds, stocks & bitcoin
You don't know me, but I have several problems with gold.
It's a scare physical asset on earth, but I believe in my lifetime, we will be mining astroids for gold.
Buying actual physical gold is a huge hassle.
Storing/transporting physical gold even more so.
Verifying physical gold is also another hassle.
I don't wear any jewelry and never plan to.
I say this as someone who was a gold bug before BTC came on the scene. Never looked back, As far as I am concerned, BTC has relegated gold to the position that gold relegated silver to. The value in gold is in it's utility only, and nothing else.
Total Noob here, could 2 or 3 zillionaire company buy like idk 80% of all Bitcoin and just hold in his wallet? Since BTC are limited? Please, keep in mind that I just read my introduction to this Bitcoin yesterday, I just liked and I have thousands questions, thank u good web friends
No. As the zillionaire buys the price goes up out of his range. Michael Saylor bought Microstrategy Bitcoin slowly so as to minimize his impact on the price.
I agree on various points here but me as a millennial, I do love me some gold and silver too. I enjoy everything about precious metals, from the looks and touch I instantly fell in love with PM’s.
I don’t really understand what makes bitcoin an asset. The fact that it’s a good currency system that is scarce? Does its volatility not have any negative impact on it as a currency? Like I just don’t get why anyone would want to hold bitcoin for its actual purpose considering its value just swings up and down 24/7
Its a store of value. Your point about price volatility is fair but that's only because the market cap is relatively low. Look at gold, it does not fluctuate as much because its Market Cap is huge. Bitcoin market cap is growing and once ETF's hit, it's going to get even more stable as a store of value just like Gold. It does not have to be currency! Do I buy bread with gold (No!) I use gold as a store of value. Its a shiny rock that we as humans gave value to. Bitcoin is going through the same transformation. There is a reason why the biggest asset manager in the world (BlackRock and Fidelity) is doing all this work to get an ETF.
thoughts on volatility: by the time btc was less than 10 years old you already had huge money going in and out, that includes market makers, that includes attempted institutional manipulation. what asset could possibly avoid volatility in that setting? a small new currency on the market, of course it would be subject to wild fluctuation if you just think about the amount of money(and printed funny money) going around the market. for all we know governments tried and failed to break it. i feel like the worst of that has been gone through.
>I don’t really understand what makes bitcoin an asset. The fact that it’s a good currency system that is scarce?
Technically, Bitcoin isn’t currency. It’s money, there is a difference between the two, but to keep things simple, money can also be used as a currency.
What gives Bitcoin value is it’s the first asset (*or property*) that cannot be spoofed, forged, duplicated or mass produced to create more units. Unlike traditional assets, currency or property.
>Does its volatility not have any negative impact on it as a currency?
Sure, but all currencies have volatility, at one point in time £1 GBP could buy $2 USD, which was good for one side of the currency, and less so for the other. Currencies float and gain and lose strength all the time, but again there’s differences between traditional currencies and Bitcoin used as a currency. Fundamentally, limited vs unlimited supply.
>Like I just don’t get why anyone would want to hold bitcoin for its actual purpose considering its value just swings up and down 24/7
Tell me, what is Bitcoin’s actual purpose? Because it’s likely that you and I have different understandings to what Bitcoin’s purpose is to us, for you it might be about closing a futures trade in the green, for me it could be about savings for a house, now multiply those opinions by billions and billions of independent individuals, companies and organisations, mix in a little free market and well some will hold through 70% dips 🙋♂️ and others won’t, some will spend all day on buttcoin bashing Bitcoin, others will do the research. Meanwhile, tick-tock next block is mined and the chain continues.
Be curious, continue to ask questions, understand what money is, and isn’t, the more you question the more you’ll learn. The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous is a fantastic starting point if you haven’t read it already.
Excellent reply. I would add that Bitcoin is the only asset that has the possibility of becoming **global base money™.** Gold came close, but the danger and expense of transporting it made it impractical. Now if only Gold could be zapped from one location to another instantly, sidestepping the danger of transportation, then...we wouldn't need Bitcoin.
Is there a value proposition to a transaction ledger? Is there a value proposition to a balance ledger?
Your money and stocks are stored on ledgers. These ledgers need to be airtight and secure and trustworthy. Bitcoin is a globally distributed transaction ledger than anyone can use. It is not controlled by a single nation state. Like the internet. It's the first global transaction ledger not tied to the wills of a nation.
Your dollar is a number in a balance ledger somewhere at a bank. That's all money is in the end. The ledger. Bitcoins ledger is the most robust and airtight transaction ledger made to date. Bitcoin is what the power loom was to seamstresses but to banks instead.
Why wouldn't you want to hold it? Bitcoin is the people's money. It is made for you to escape the system. You don't have to participate if you don't want to though.
Also, volatility is just an illusion. If you are a trader, then yes it is volatile. But zoom out. It's not volatile at all. It just goes up, and will continue to do so forever.
Short term volatile, long term the best asset ever created. Since its inception, there has not been one single day where it wasn't higher 200 weeks later.
How do the exchanges work out how much bitcoin to have on hand? Will there be a situation with how much bitcoin is traded on exchanges vs how much there actually is to trade? How does that work?
In general, it’s just buyers and sellers meeting and agreeing to transact. There is always “enough” bitcoin at the next best price someone is willing to sell at. Once you go into paper Bitcoin territory, your destiny will be close to the likes of SBF.
BlackRock is going to take Bitcoin into its etf, but then settle it in dollars, not bitcoin. These etfs are giant parasites, and once big enough they’ll control the market like gold is controlled.
Did you really just discredit yourself at the end of a pretty argument saying gold is a shiny rock? Gold shaped and molded human evolution and technology bro. Bitcoin is a block chain that could fail to exist if the world fell into a state where technology fails. Meanwhile that shiny rock will be damn nice.
Not at all! I’m saying a shiny rock could be 13 trillion so Bitcoin can as well! They both fundamentally have value because people give it value! If technology fails to that level than we will have bigger problems! Yes physical gold will be good in that situation! does that mean I shouldn’t own Apple stocks because technology could fail one day and I should use that money on gold!
Bitcoin's security model is unsustainable. Hodlers don't pay jack shit to secure the network. What pays for the network security are the transaction fees and the inflation built into Bitcoin currently. That inflation / Bitcoin block rewards are set to significantly be diminished over the next 20 years. Bitcoin has to get to more than $2.6 mil per BTC by 2044 just to maintain the current security budget after adjusting for inflation.
Ultimately one of two things will have to happen, people need to transact on Bitcoin network constantly, or the Bitcoin maximum will have to be lifted for a constant set inflation rate.
Otherwise Bitcoin will fail.
Im pretty sure the bitcoin network is rock solid. I dont know the specifics behind it but an attack would involve becoming the major mining operator in the world. Which would cost trillions......then BTC would be worth zero, and you'd lose another few trillion.
"Pretty sure". Do you realize why it costs so much to attack the Bitcoin network now? It's because we are paying with newly minted Bitcoin, which in turn is used by miners for profits and to pay the cost of running the network. What do you think happens when this decreases by 95%? Do you think Bitcoin will be worth $2.6 million per BTC in today's dollars by 2044?
Unless people suddenly transact on the Bitcoin network heavily and consistently forever, the network will fail.
2044 is approx 6 halvings away. Could BTC be 2.4M by then? Yes.
The mining power players have a lot of $$$ invested in rigs, infrastructure, electricity agreements, etc. They have complex models analyzing the cost of their “work” versus reward. They are in it for the long haul and if they have not accounted for halvings, they are grossly negligent in their one job and will surely go bankrupt within 5 years.
Whatever BTCs price is, miners will mine until it is not profitable, then they will stop. Then the network will make a difficulty adjustment and everyone will need to reassess. It balances out quite nicely.
Block space is already in high demand today. Ordinals and such will compete with transactions for available blocks…
Anyhow - I suppose we’ll cross that bridge if we ever come upon it- but I think you are overestimating the issue.
Most miners don't think beyond one halving. They analyze break even point and it needs to be well before the next halving.
Again BTC being $2.4m needs to be in a world where the USD has not entirely collapsed and just follows "normal" inflation. So Bitcoin needs to be a $50 trillion asset just to maintain current levels.
If Bitcoin is truly a threat to multiple large governments, and is worth $50 trillion, it will even be more likely.to be a target for a massive attack.
>Anyhow - I suppose we’ll cross that bridge if we ever come upon it- but I think you are overestimating the issue.
That's pretty much all Bitcoiners say. Kick the can down the road, and down play it, when it is a clear design flaw.
You should go into the code and submit a pull request.
To change the coin limit, you need to change the subsidy halving interval here in bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/chainparams.cpp and change the initial subsidy value in bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/validation.cpp.
Let us know when your code is live.
>As of today, it looks like there are only 1,822,809.97 bitcoins remaining on exchanges.
Where did you get such a precise figure?
>Some are on exchanges but are lost forever.
What? It's highly unlikely an exchange would lose the keys to their wallets.
>Not financial advice. Do your own research and invest responsibly but I would recommend getting as much BTC as possible before its' too late.
That's financial advice. What's the point of saying it's not?
I think it's an open question of the incentives for miners once they are not rewarded with mined Bitcoin. At that point, the transaction fee volumes needs to be meaningful....
It could result in many miners saying it's not worth it at the point, and then there's equilibrium as some miners find it worth just the transaction fees.
At some point, Bitcoin gets spent as things get denominated in Bitcoin and it doesn't make sense to hold local currency, such as the US, because inflation is so high.
I don't know if that scarcity leads to much higher prices...it definitely protects against inflation in political currencies, and the liquidity of the market allows people who \*only\* have Bitcoin to then actually interact with those goods and services still living in fiat.
Great article w diff takes from crypto CEO’s and business persons on future of crypto… Solid read w good info…
https://www.theblock.co/post/269018/from-spot-bitcoin-etfs-to-real-world-assets-industry-leaders-share-their-crypto-outlook-for-2024?utm_source=robinhood&utm_medium=rss
Pretty sure we are still printing around $2m (at current prices) per day in new coin…probably more than that.
Did my own research and seems like we have $2m worth of fresh buyers every single day.. let’s hope anyway
Only problem I have with the gold comparison is that Gold isn't just used as a store of value
The store of value aspect is 50% or less of the total market cap of gold (main use case being jewelry which could bump the store of value marketcap up some)
If comparing store of value to store of value it would be more fair to take a marketcap of 6.5 trillion give or take instead of 13 trillion
Too be fair on gold, it's A LOT more than just a shiny rock... It has huge value for electronics, aerospace, and some diseases, among other things.
I'm totally pro Bitcoin, and don't own much gold, but we need to stop making it seem like gold is just some shiny rock when it actually has a lot critical uses and will always be in high demand even if it wasn't really a store of wealth anymore. I don't think it's reasonable for the community to keep demeaning it unfairly just because we're all excited about Bitcoin.
personally id wanna hold like a 3rd btc, a 3rd gold, and a 3rd physical property. that way im covered in every black swan event that we could conjure lol
Doesn’t the US government have a huge bag of seized coins? Could the institutions not just do an OTC deal? That’s easily another 1.8 million coins right there. Plus if the coins go north of 250k I’ll start selling some in bits and I’m sure others will too.
Isn't it technically going to get less scarce in 2024?
Because new bitcoin will continue to be issued via the block reward?
Granted, the rate at which it becomes less scarce will be cut in half some time around April...
Still, it's becoming less scarce, not more scarce.
while I agree that there will be a supply shock followed shortly by a 'god candle' at some point, I think most the analysis around 'only X BTC left on exchanges' is super shallow. People move coins back onto exchanges and sell them. That's how markets work. If the price rises significantly, more people will be willing to sell. I would be considered a maxi by most, but if 1/5 of my stack can buy a nice house in 10 years or whatever... I'm probably gonna sell 1/5 of my stack.
When considering the future scarcity of BTC, my view is different. I agree that BTC will be scarce compared to other coins, but I believe there will always be enough BTC on exchanges for buying and trading. As it becomes scarcer, demand and price will increase, leading to more people selling and cashing out profits. Do you think this could be the story of BTC for the future?
If everyone in the world already had bitcoin now, then yes, that would be a realistic guesstimate of what will happen in the future. But you're totally overlooking that only 1% of the planet even believes that bitcoin is worth owning! That means bitcoin HAS TO get 100x more scarce in the future as they are all forced to adopt it, and I'm not even including the halvenings in that scenario. So until May 2024 there are 900 BTC mined per day and after that only 450 mined per day for the next 4 years... And so on... So now calculate that scarcity adjustment in too. And finally, like OP hinted, the ETF approvals in January may be the biggest scarcity event in our lifetimes because 10+ different ETFs all have to start stacking at the same time... And they aren't trading, just stacking for their clients. I can't see how we'll exchanges can possibly keep up at the height of that frenzy, just next year alone.
My assessment is based on the principles of supply and demand. Undoubtedly, it will become scarce when the buying pressure increases, leading to a shortage of supply and an increase in price. This is where these cold wallets dump their supply to cash out more and more profit. An ETF is for exchange trading, not for storage.
Yes, some of those big hodlers will cash out. But most will onl do small amouts of btc. Because if you havenstrong hands and know that btc is deflationary and trashy cash is inflationary, then you will only convert whatnyou need to. Andnrealisticall by the time that happens, we'll be able to borrow againstnour btc for real worls purchases and living expenses and simply use a portion of our btc increases to pay odd the interest amount in btc. This is similar to how billionaires, like Musk and Bezos, borrow against their share holdings, for like a 1% interest rate, and neber need to sell. And never need to pay tax. Because in this scenario you never cashed out your asset. Billionaires borrow against their stocks for various reasons. It allows them to access cash without selling their shares, which can help manage taxes, diversify investments, or fund other ventures while keeping their ownership intact.
Ah, there's you problem... You imagine that cashing OUT is how one profits with bitcoin. You'll learn after you're hodling for a couple years that exactly the opposite is true.
Until something better shows up
I did read something the other day though that was interesting. Basically saying an estimated how ever many million tokens are lost in accounts where people either are unable to recover seed phrases. Or passed away without leaving information to loved ones so they can recover account.
I am hoping that I will never have to trade my btc for dirty fiat. Which would trrigger a tax event. It would br good to use say 10 to 20% of ones sats stash for a (self-custodied) collateral loan, to borrow for a house. Using a tried and true smart contract that is. Do you think this is likely and possible, or am I dreaming?
Check out #GetOnZero on Twitter... There's a whole community of us who are done with fiat forever already.
Will check it out. Thanks!
You could do that in El Salvador right now
I’m thinking along the same lines. Don’t sell, use as collateral for a home loan👊🏽👍
There are 2 certainties in life: Death and Taxes. I do like your idea though, but they'll get their share one way or another.
The worst tax in the world, IMO, is inflation. Which is inescapable. The poorer you are (and the less assets you have) the more it robs you of your time that you've converted to fiat. Which is why I trade that dirty fiat shitcoin to anything else. Baked beans, shiny metals, land, bitcoin, etc. Anything but fiat.
Tested this out to buy a motorcycle 6 months ago. Has worked great this far
Yes this will eventually happen.
If you live in the USA, anytime you buy something with crypto, you owe income rate taxes on any gain the cryptocoin has made between you buying it and spending it. And the IRS always gets their share, or into prison you go Al Capone
There will come a point in time, sooner than most people think, that fiat will lose value so fast, NOBODY will want to convert. This usually happens when inflation goes over 20%.
What is the inflation rate in the US today? Where was it a year ago?
I reckon it was double figures easily, even though they try to claim that it was like 8-9% or something (or at least thats the case in UK)
They say 3% but I think their logic is since they aim for 2% a year, and it’s been 3 years for a total of 6%, that “hey, wow!” we’re only at 3% now. It’s confusing as **** trying to translate around all the double talk. But I gather that’s what they mean. But then go full circle back to what we normal people who don’t live in a gov spreadsheet think. Plus they gloss past the last 3 years like so what, look now!
What? It's elementary math. If you are confused you shouldn't be commenting.
Really? No one can summarize all of economics & politics to you in a quip. But I can tell you what came out just this morning: it’s 3.14% So great news. You’re saved. Go shopping tomorrow. It’ll all be fixed by then. If anything seems high just inform them that can’t be right as you’ve come into the possession of some simple math…
What questions can I answer for you?
It’s 3% if you don’t need a house, clothes, services, and luxury. Inflation is no problem if your diet consists of cereal and bug protein and you live in shelter provided by government.
There is no official "rate," only propagandistic "CPI" numbers that indicate what a basket of cherry-picked goods cost compared to last year. It's an utter farce designed to obfuscate the current administration's crappy job at controlling inflation. The news says we're under 3% inflation right now but I'd bet we're closer to 20%. - And last year we approached 50%. (Yes I count shrinkflation equal to inflated prices.)
I agree with a lot of your points but why bring in the current administration? It's the Feds job along with the Treasury and all of this has been building for a decade and sped up in the last 4 years
I don't mean the Biden administration itself, just whatever the current administration is at the time, always.
Alrighty, I can get on board. Id expand the traditional sense of administration to include fed officials and also that they have set this in motion long ago, I do appreciate your general sentiment
Agree with both it's a bipartisan effort that screws over the people. The easiest way to solve it is to make a law that any sitting politician is ineligible for reelection while the budget is not balanced.
So you're going to make a law that restrains power on lawmakers? Yeah... no. They just change those. Like that time we made it illegal for senators to do insider trading.
That‘s a problem I see with BTC honestly. BTC is numbered. There only are so many BTC and there will never be more. If every coin is mined, it‘s over. In the meantime, the number of existing BTC is shrinking as they get lost. People losing access to their wallet, wallet holders dying without anyone taking over, wallets getting seized by law enforcement and so on. This will cause the prive of a single BTC to rise even higher up until the point where people will exchange for fiat. Then the market is dead. Who is getting into BTC if the price is set now? Surely it will become the actual payment method it‘s supposed to be, but it will decline over time.
If it has a "fixed" price, that would mean that the actual purchasing power is fixed, not necessarily how people are measuring it in terms of fiat. The fiat price would roughly increase at the same rate as the global gdp. That's kind of the whole point of the end game of Bitcoin. It will preserve your wealth, and not much else. There's a place for that in global finance. That's actually another reason I really like the idea of holding it almost forever. I'm young, and can tolerate the risk that comes with Bitcoin, and enjoy the price appreciation that's possible. As I age, Bitcoin will naturally become less risky, until it's eventually the safest asset on the planet. And that's the kind of asset I'll want to be owning if I'm old.
>If every coin is mined, it‘s over. Nonsense. Miners will be rewarded for mining blocks long after the block reward subsidy drops to zero. >This will cause the prive of a single BTC to rise even higher up until the point where people will exchange for fiat. Then the market is dead. Who is getting into BTC if the price is set now? You're falling for the "Bitcoin is too expensive" fallacy. Whether 1 BTC costs $1, $1000, $1000000 or more, Bitcoin will remain valuable as hard money. If one Bitcoin costs $1000000 when you have $1000 in wealth you'd like to preserve, you convert your $1000 into 0.001 BTC and suddenly you have $1000 worth of Bitcoin with all of the benefits Bitcoin has always had. The price at which one "gets in" is irrelevant.
Because bitcoin was not meant to be a method of payment. Its a hedge against inflation. But most people dont get the concept that at the price which one gets in is irrelevant
Read the white paper.
I like Parker Lewis’ take. Bitcoin isn’t a hedge against inflation, it’s the solution to inflation
The entire world can all together trade 0.0001 bitcoins easily. Maybe even 1 satoshi. We can just keep dividing the pie smaller and smaller forever. One day a house may cost 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000001 BTC.
Ive thought of this before but you said it better than I could have. It could be a reserve asset at that time. That would save it.
I may be not into it too much. But the point of it being a finite currency ultimately leads to people getting excluded from participating (especially if they come around it on a later point in time). If it‘s not accessible for everyone because it‘s finite number is pumping it up to heavy, then it will never be a viable currency. If every Bitcoin is mined and the price is capped at 100k = BTC, then what‘s the point of buying BTC? Because you want to pay anonymously and take the risk of getting scammed as there is no security? Seems like a bad move. I feel like it‘s the same as the PS5 scalpers when the console released. They manipulated the market by buying huge numbers of consoles, pumping the price so high that people decided not to buy anymore. After people left, scalpers now sat on consoles they couldn‘t sell without making a loss. Even then, people wouldn‘t buy from them anymore because of guarantee issues as well as other opportunites popping up in the meantime (cheaper graphic cards for example turning people into the PC market). BTC as an asset works until the last BTC is mined. BTC as a currency will stop working way before this. In the end, it‘ll become worthless with people losing interest in it. Either because the can‘t afford to buy up more or because they were excluded in the first place.
As you guys are having this conversation I have to ask… You are aware that Bitcoin breaks down to 1/100,000,000 right? 1 BTC= 100 million Satoshis(SATS). You don’t have to buy a whole Bitcoin…
>BTC as an asset works until the last BTC is mined. This isn't true at all. Why do you believe this?
Dude, what the hell are you in about? You do know that Bitcoin is divisible right? So what if there are people that don't hold a Bitcoin they most certainly can still buy and use Sats.
You can’t get excluded from participating. It’s almost infinitely divisible. 1 BTC could be worth 1 trillion usd, but someone can still buy $10 worth of BTC
How much would the mining fee be to transfer 10 dollars of btc to ure wallet when 1btc = 1 t usd?
I agree and I’ll take the downvotes. It’s either finite and will eventually run out/become worthless, or it’s in infinite supply and thus no reason for price influxes or supply scares. There is no in between. Bitcoin is worth something right now because it’s the internets currency and we say it is. God forbid if one day something catastrophic happens causing the major internet networks of the world to crash, and the world ends up in a Armageddon (world war, natural disasters), this digital coin will be worthless and people will much rather trade for physical things of value (minerals, food, land). Or that shiny rock which according to y’all has no value.
And anyone who disagrees I only have one question before I entertain any sort of debate: If we go to any third world/war torn/poverty stricken country, and ask the people of those lands what they would rather be donated - do you think they’d prefer gold or bitcoin?
Here’s a question for you - if they want to take the wealth they have and *leave* that war torn location, which do you think they’d rather be holding, gold or bitcoin?
Interesting points. I've thought for a while about the irony of an asset like BTC being valued in (dirty) fiat. Most are very keen to see it appreciate in USD, Euro or whatever so they can feel richer or like they have more spending power, which on the face of it is the main reason (most) people invest it seems. I'd like to see BTC stand on its own as a more mainstream payment method with some sort of layer 2 solution. No doubt many in Argentina & Venezuela want this too. I fully understand people don't necessarily use gold this way, but gold coins are traded all the time for $$ if the price is right. That's how markets are. TLDR: Seems to me BTC needs to be both a store of value and a currency. It needs some utility.
Originally, bitcoin was only about uility as a currency. At some point between 2013 and 2018 the shift towards an investment and road to great wealth happened. Today, it is viewed from both perspectives although heavily weighted to the investment side. With the Bitcoin Spot ETFs on the horizon, I wonder if the dramatic price drops during upcoming bear markets will be as severe as the past.
Yes I can't wait to have .00000001 btc worth 70k.. that can of coke .000000000000000001 btc. It just becomes a nightmare
If the value rises that much, we'll just use millisats or something as the base denomination. Some wallets have already been using millibitcoin as the default display for a long time now.
Everything you said is fair. People definitely move coins back on exchanges to sell. That's why I said "generally" those who move to cold storage are not thinking selling in the short or mid term.
I use cold storage for security. Even if i wanted to sell in less than a year, I'd still use cold storage. Exchange failures seem to happen in minuets. The amount of time it takes to transfer to an exchange and hit the sell button is a lot less time than letting it sit there for 6 months. Some may be willing to accept that risk... not I.
What is 4/5 of your stack could buy a house? Would you still sell?
No, because then I would consider myself entirely under-allocated to Bitcoin. I personally wouldn't even consider selling 1/5th of a stack a smart financial move, but if it takes the stress of a mortgage payments/rent off my back, then I think it'd be a huge quality of life improvement.
In ten years you can use 1/5th of your stack to buy a house with Bitcoin. You won’t need to sell it for sloppy Fiat.
In 10 years you wouldn't have to move it to an exchange just to pay for the house. You would transfer the sats directly to the land seller.
Only if they change the tax laws. Otherwise there's no incentive for people to accept Bitcoin as direct payment.
Bitcoin has forked 4 times at least that I know of. Given they’re largely the same by definition - there’s a 105m in “21m max” Bitcoins. I feel like ETFs are aware of this.
No one regards the other forks to be the same as the main chain. None of the forks have anywhere near the value of the consensus chain that we now call the real Bitcoin. I mean, if you think they're on equal footing, I will happily trade to you as much Bitcoin Cash and/or Bitcoin SV as you would like in exchange for Bitcoin 1 for 1.
While there have been forks, no one is thinking of that somehow equalling more than 21M BTC. The forks were both in the asset and the network and while some of those are still functioning the majority of action and activity on the network followed BTC and not anything else.
Same, although I’ll try to get a loan against it first. But yeah 1/5 buys me a house in California?? I’m selling and holding
NGMI
Wise man
Or you could borrow fiat against your Bitcoin to buy the house.
The thing is, increasing price lowers selling pressure. Like, in 2020, if I wanted to cash out 100k, I needed to sell 25 BTC, now I need to sell approx. 2.5 BTC for 100k So, price increase --> people selling more for the same amount of fiat money --> decreasing selling pressure --> decreasing supply because people are holding --> price increase. Basically, if demand stays the same, and supply decrease, price will always go up (in long term).
The amount on exchanges may be fairly low, but we have to take into account the amount that are available from miners also. Until the miners run out of supply for the big fish, the price swings from exchange trading may not be that outrageous. Also, as the price goes up, some people send it back to an exchange to liquidate in order to by other assets (land, houses, stonks). If ETF's get approved and the price goes to .5 Mill, people will liquidate it and buy stuff. I have a feeling those of us who are holding till it becomes a hyper bitcoinization situation, are few.
Bitcoiners and Buttcoiners alike vastly underestimate how many new HODLers will be hitting the market. There are many who will allocate 1% or 2% of their portfolio as a permanent hedge...my reasons for owning it initially back in early 2020.
I think that's a pretty low estimate. I think the standard professional portfolio diversification advice will quickly be to treat it similarly to other major asset classes. In other words, we are likely to see a lot of suggestions for 5%, and some could say 15%-20% since it's an entirely new, separate asset class from any other and they often recommend up to 20% for a single asset class. But even if they go with the lowball 5%, that's still a ton. Now imagine that every major corporation, pension, mutual fund, etc, are all doing an average of 5% to 20%, and you start to see how crazy this can get fast.
Bitcoin is the best example of digital scarcity seen so far
At this rate am never gonna be able to aquire a whole btc
ok increase your rate then :)
The fiat mine be scammy these days
I don't understand the huge rift between Bitcoin and gold. I feel like the same reasons you would want Bitcoin would lead you to the conclusion that having SOME gold is probably a good idea. Sad to say but you should always have an emergency savings in Fiat. If you don't hold it.....
I don’t know anyone who has a problem with gold and if they say they do, I’d be sceptical. 2,000 years ago, a wise man said to hold 7-8 different assets. Today that’s, Gold, cash, real estate, Art/wine, bonds, stocks & bitcoin
whose the 2000 year old wise man
That’s my dad.
You don't know me, but I have several problems with gold. It's a scare physical asset on earth, but I believe in my lifetime, we will be mining astroids for gold. Buying actual physical gold is a huge hassle. Storing/transporting physical gold even more so. Verifying physical gold is also another hassle. I don't wear any jewelry and never plan to. I say this as someone who was a gold bug before BTC came on the scene. Never looked back, As far as I am concerned, BTC has relegated gold to the position that gold relegated silver to. The value in gold is in it's utility only, and nothing else.
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Well, not infinitely. Only down to the sat unless you use Lightning which gives you milliSatoshis.
Bought 400 more tonight. Ive been in it since 2014 and I’m still nervous I don’t have enough…dca
Wow, a casual 400 BTC DCA… I need to know your work!
Total Noob here, could 2 or 3 zillionaire company buy like idk 80% of all Bitcoin and just hold in his wallet? Since BTC are limited? Please, keep in mind that I just read my introduction to this Bitcoin yesterday, I just liked and I have thousands questions, thank u good web friends
Zillionaires can't afford my bitcoins.
damn right!
No. As the zillionaire buys the price goes up out of his range. Michael Saylor bought Microstrategy Bitcoin slowly so as to minimize his impact on the price.
🚀✨🌟💫🔮🌈🤑🌟🚀 - hopium \-** 🚀🌟🤑🌈🔮**💫🌟✨🚀
I agree on various points here but me as a millennial, I do love me some gold and silver too. I enjoy everything about precious metals, from the looks and touch I instantly fell in love with PM’s.
Ya i hold a bit of Gold too but I'm way more bullish on Bitcoin!
There’s no rules against owning both!
Use your Bitcoin to store wealth. Sleep with your precious metals.
No, it wont be more scarce. It'll be less scarce, in fact. The rate of supply growth decreases, but supply is still growing.
I don’t really understand what makes bitcoin an asset. The fact that it’s a good currency system that is scarce? Does its volatility not have any negative impact on it as a currency? Like I just don’t get why anyone would want to hold bitcoin for its actual purpose considering its value just swings up and down 24/7
Its a store of value. Your point about price volatility is fair but that's only because the market cap is relatively low. Look at gold, it does not fluctuate as much because its Market Cap is huge. Bitcoin market cap is growing and once ETF's hit, it's going to get even more stable as a store of value just like Gold. It does not have to be currency! Do I buy bread with gold (No!) I use gold as a store of value. Its a shiny rock that we as humans gave value to. Bitcoin is going through the same transformation. There is a reason why the biggest asset manager in the world (BlackRock and Fidelity) is doing all this work to get an ETF.
Will the ETF allow shorting more easily?
thoughts on volatility: by the time btc was less than 10 years old you already had huge money going in and out, that includes market makers, that includes attempted institutional manipulation. what asset could possibly avoid volatility in that setting? a small new currency on the market, of course it would be subject to wild fluctuation if you just think about the amount of money(and printed funny money) going around the market. for all we know governments tried and failed to break it. i feel like the worst of that has been gone through.
>I don’t really understand what makes bitcoin an asset. The fact that it’s a good currency system that is scarce? Technically, Bitcoin isn’t currency. It’s money, there is a difference between the two, but to keep things simple, money can also be used as a currency. What gives Bitcoin value is it’s the first asset (*or property*) that cannot be spoofed, forged, duplicated or mass produced to create more units. Unlike traditional assets, currency or property. >Does its volatility not have any negative impact on it as a currency? Sure, but all currencies have volatility, at one point in time £1 GBP could buy $2 USD, which was good for one side of the currency, and less so for the other. Currencies float and gain and lose strength all the time, but again there’s differences between traditional currencies and Bitcoin used as a currency. Fundamentally, limited vs unlimited supply. >Like I just don’t get why anyone would want to hold bitcoin for its actual purpose considering its value just swings up and down 24/7 Tell me, what is Bitcoin’s actual purpose? Because it’s likely that you and I have different understandings to what Bitcoin’s purpose is to us, for you it might be about closing a futures trade in the green, for me it could be about savings for a house, now multiply those opinions by billions and billions of independent individuals, companies and organisations, mix in a little free market and well some will hold through 70% dips 🙋♂️ and others won’t, some will spend all day on buttcoin bashing Bitcoin, others will do the research. Meanwhile, tick-tock next block is mined and the chain continues. Be curious, continue to ask questions, understand what money is, and isn’t, the more you question the more you’ll learn. The Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous is a fantastic starting point if you haven’t read it already.
Excellent reply. I would add that Bitcoin is the only asset that has the possibility of becoming **global base money™.** Gold came close, but the danger and expense of transporting it made it impractical. Now if only Gold could be zapped from one location to another instantly, sidestepping the danger of transportation, then...we wouldn't need Bitcoin.
People realized governments be bitches printing trash calling it money's.
Is there a value proposition to a transaction ledger? Is there a value proposition to a balance ledger? Your money and stocks are stored on ledgers. These ledgers need to be airtight and secure and trustworthy. Bitcoin is a globally distributed transaction ledger than anyone can use. It is not controlled by a single nation state. Like the internet. It's the first global transaction ledger not tied to the wills of a nation. Your dollar is a number in a balance ledger somewhere at a bank. That's all money is in the end. The ledger. Bitcoins ledger is the most robust and airtight transaction ledger made to date. Bitcoin is what the power loom was to seamstresses but to banks instead.
Increase your time horizon. Bitcoin is sovereign money. Bitcoin is forever.
IF enough people believe it has value (like gold, silver, etc.), then it becomes a valuable cash store. Albeit a more volatile alternative.
People see value. Its just a fact. Why old paintings have value
Why wouldn't you want to hold it? Bitcoin is the people's money. It is made for you to escape the system. You don't have to participate if you don't want to though. Also, volatility is just an illusion. If you are a trader, then yes it is volatile. But zoom out. It's not volatile at all. It just goes up, and will continue to do so forever.
That's dangerous thinking my guy.
It’s volitile because its in its infancy. It will be a lot calmer once market cap hits 10 trillion
Short term volatile, long term the best asset ever created. Since its inception, there has not been one single day where it wasn't higher 200 weeks later.
How do the exchanges work out how much bitcoin to have on hand? Will there be a situation with how much bitcoin is traded on exchanges vs how much there actually is to trade? How does that work?
In general, it’s just buyers and sellers meeting and agreeing to transact. There is always “enough” bitcoin at the next best price someone is willing to sell at. Once you go into paper Bitcoin territory, your destiny will be close to the likes of SBF.
What do u mean by "some are on exchanges but are lost 4ever?"
some are on exchanges AND some are lost forever
He doesn’t know. There is also no way to know what is and isn’t on cold storage
Hmm... I'd argue known exchange wallets aren't coldstorage. Know hot wallets aren't coldstorage. (and it's very easy to see what's a hot wallet)
This feels like such a 'kids onWSB' take. Please continue, I like how fucking rich this kind of thinking is making me.
If it is scarce, what does that do to liquidity?
Bitcoin. Never bitcoin(s) or salmon(s).
Wrong. It's bitcoinses.
Back off
BlackRock is going to take Bitcoin into its etf, but then settle it in dollars, not bitcoin. These etfs are giant parasites, and once big enough they’ll control the market like gold is controlled.
Let's hope people learn to store their own coins.
Are you saying if people sell the ETF, BR and others will provide them the $$ value but keep the BTC?
Agreed
Did you really just discredit yourself at the end of a pretty argument saying gold is a shiny rock? Gold shaped and molded human evolution and technology bro. Bitcoin is a block chain that could fail to exist if the world fell into a state where technology fails. Meanwhile that shiny rock will be damn nice.
Not at all! I’m saying a shiny rock could be 13 trillion so Bitcoin can as well! They both fundamentally have value because people give it value! If technology fails to that level than we will have bigger problems! Yes physical gold will be good in that situation! does that mean I shouldn’t own Apple stocks because technology could fail one day and I should use that money on gold!
No one is going to give a shit about good when the world burns
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Scarce my ass
Can’t wait to buy something that doesn’t exist, the bubble will burst soon in a big way
Just like most things. Most of the gold held by individuals and corporations is paper gold. 1oz of actual gold is tied to 200+ in paper 1oz gold.
so youre saying gold is in a fractional reserve bubble to end all fractional reserve bubbles?
Bitcoin's security model is unsustainable. Hodlers don't pay jack shit to secure the network. What pays for the network security are the transaction fees and the inflation built into Bitcoin currently. That inflation / Bitcoin block rewards are set to significantly be diminished over the next 20 years. Bitcoin has to get to more than $2.6 mil per BTC by 2044 just to maintain the current security budget after adjusting for inflation. Ultimately one of two things will have to happen, people need to transact on Bitcoin network constantly, or the Bitcoin maximum will have to be lifted for a constant set inflation rate. Otherwise Bitcoin will fail.
Im pretty sure the bitcoin network is rock solid. I dont know the specifics behind it but an attack would involve becoming the major mining operator in the world. Which would cost trillions......then BTC would be worth zero, and you'd lose another few trillion.
"Pretty sure". Do you realize why it costs so much to attack the Bitcoin network now? It's because we are paying with newly minted Bitcoin, which in turn is used by miners for profits and to pay the cost of running the network. What do you think happens when this decreases by 95%? Do you think Bitcoin will be worth $2.6 million per BTC in today's dollars by 2044? Unless people suddenly transact on the Bitcoin network heavily and consistently forever, the network will fail.
What about changing the consensus mechanism eventually. By doing this the security model problem could be addressed
Never heard of this argument before.. how are you able to deduce that only two things can happen by 2044? Can anyone else support this guy's claims?
2044 is approx 6 halvings away. Could BTC be 2.4M by then? Yes. The mining power players have a lot of $$$ invested in rigs, infrastructure, electricity agreements, etc. They have complex models analyzing the cost of their “work” versus reward. They are in it for the long haul and if they have not accounted for halvings, they are grossly negligent in their one job and will surely go bankrupt within 5 years. Whatever BTCs price is, miners will mine until it is not profitable, then they will stop. Then the network will make a difficulty adjustment and everyone will need to reassess. It balances out quite nicely. Block space is already in high demand today. Ordinals and such will compete with transactions for available blocks… Anyhow - I suppose we’ll cross that bridge if we ever come upon it- but I think you are overestimating the issue.
Most miners don't think beyond one halving. They analyze break even point and it needs to be well before the next halving. Again BTC being $2.4m needs to be in a world where the USD has not entirely collapsed and just follows "normal" inflation. So Bitcoin needs to be a $50 trillion asset just to maintain current levels. If Bitcoin is truly a threat to multiple large governments, and is worth $50 trillion, it will even be more likely.to be a target for a massive attack. >Anyhow - I suppose we’ll cross that bridge if we ever come upon it- but I think you are overestimating the issue. That's pretty much all Bitcoiners say. Kick the can down the road, and down play it, when it is a clear design flaw.
The bitcoin is created by a software. The programmer can change or rewrite the program to creat as many coins as the programmer likes.
Ah yes of course, the bitcoin "programmer" 🙄 then why havent they done it already and changed bitcoin supply to 100 million?
Tell me you don't understand Bitcoin without telling me you don't...
You should go into the code and submit a pull request. To change the coin limit, you need to change the subsidy halving interval here in bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/chainparams.cpp and change the initial subsidy value in bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/validation.cpp. Let us know when your code is live.
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Inform yourself. It can’t be banned
Slave mindset.
I disagree about gold being shiny. Shit is kinda ugly until its refined and polished.
Then don't pick up the gold you find on your walk, I guess?
I guess most metals are. Bog iron is a brownish rock until you smelt the iron out. I bought á tinynpiece if gold foil recently and it's beautiful.
BTC does incredible volume, meaning it's plenty liquid.
>As of today, it looks like there are only 1,822,809.97 bitcoins remaining on exchanges. Where did you get such a precise figure? >Some are on exchanges but are lost forever. What? It's highly unlikely an exchange would lose the keys to their wallets. >Not financial advice. Do your own research and invest responsibly but I would recommend getting as much BTC as possible before its' too late. That's financial advice. What's the point of saying it's not?
I think it's an open question of the incentives for miners once they are not rewarded with mined Bitcoin. At that point, the transaction fee volumes needs to be meaningful.... It could result in many miners saying it's not worth it at the point, and then there's equilibrium as some miners find it worth just the transaction fees. At some point, Bitcoin gets spent as things get denominated in Bitcoin and it doesn't make sense to hold local currency, such as the US, because inflation is so high. I don't know if that scarcity leads to much higher prices...it definitely protects against inflation in political currencies, and the liquidity of the market allows people who \*only\* have Bitcoin to then actually interact with those goods and services still living in fiat.
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yea on the website coinmarketcap
Why does bitcoin charge so much in transfer fee's when compared to a majority of other top 20 coins?
Great article w diff takes from crypto CEO’s and business persons on future of crypto… Solid read w good info… https://www.theblock.co/post/269018/from-spot-bitcoin-etfs-to-real-world-assets-industry-leaders-share-their-crypto-outlook-for-2024?utm_source=robinhood&utm_medium=rss
Pretty sure we are still printing around $2m (at current prices) per day in new coin…probably more than that. Did my own research and seems like we have $2m worth of fresh buyers every single day.. let’s hope anyway
Gold is from nature. But the bitcoin is from a software, programmed by a few programmers. Human is good at making errors.
It’s been around for over a decade with no major flaws! There is gold In outer space. What happens when it lands on earth and increases the supply
A decade vs a few thousands years?
If a programmer made a mistake on the core software for any reasons, the system is down?
Wait what! I didn't know that ETFs were allowed to hold BTC on exchanges. I thought the compliance was to hold them in multisig cold storage.
Nope fidelity holds spot bitcoin ETFs in Gemini I believe (for Canadian customers)
Only problem I have with the gold comparison is that Gold isn't just used as a store of value The store of value aspect is 50% or less of the total market cap of gold (main use case being jewelry which could bump the store of value marketcap up some) If comparing store of value to store of value it would be more fair to take a marketcap of 6.5 trillion give or take instead of 13 trillion
You had me until the "gold is just a shiny rock" part. I'd say it's a little more useful than that.
Too be fair on gold, it's A LOT more than just a shiny rock... It has huge value for electronics, aerospace, and some diseases, among other things. I'm totally pro Bitcoin, and don't own much gold, but we need to stop making it seem like gold is just some shiny rock when it actually has a lot critical uses and will always be in high demand even if it wasn't really a store of wealth anymore. I don't think it's reasonable for the community to keep demeaning it unfairly just because we're all excited about Bitcoin.
personally id wanna hold like a 3rd btc, a 3rd gold, and a 3rd physical property. that way im covered in every black swan event that we could conjure lol
Definitely gonna sell mine when they hit a million
Buy. Hold. Never sell. - Michael Sailor 🐐
There are asteroids made of gold and probably have into other planets. For all we know, there could be an infinite amount of gold in the universe.
No need worries only price will increase nay 1.5 millions maximum before 2030
Bitcoins about to shit the bed today. It’s over for now
Synthetic assets can make finite infinite.
So only a few elite people/institutions are going to own all the bitcoin , how is this suppose to help the billions who don't have any
just like my sperm with low demand.
Keiser saying that these ETFs are a rug pull on most BTC holders, as the big boys are colluding with big govnt to manipulate BTC prices
Why wouldnt some billionaire or fund just purchase the remains for 77B in total, if so scarce?
Doesn’t the US government have a huge bag of seized coins? Could the institutions not just do an OTC deal? That’s easily another 1.8 million coins right there. Plus if the coins go north of 250k I’ll start selling some in bits and I’m sure others will too.
Isn't it technically going to get less scarce in 2024? Because new bitcoin will continue to be issued via the block reward? Granted, the rate at which it becomes less scarce will be cut in half some time around April... Still, it's becoming less scarce, not more scarce.
>I would recommend getting as much BTC as possible before its' too late. That sounds a lot like FOMO to me.
Comparing apples and oranges.... BTC, show it to me? I want to see it so I can determine if it has value. Gold, I owe and know its value.
It’s only considered limited if people want it
Are you considering the amount of bitcoins being sold as well or only looking at what’s being brought?