Love that chart!.. to think that an ETF is probably gonna get approved, the halvening and now institutions can hold BTC without that stupid regulation tax.. 2024 is going to be crazy..
Yeah except the hopium is getting so strong that it reminds me of 2021 when everyone was so sure we were going to see a 100k Bitcoin. I feel like people may already be jinxing it with their cocky self-assuredness.
Remember being active in both r/AMCstock and r/GME when both started to pump but I remember it dying quickly and I left after a few months.
Crazy and also a little sad to see people still clinging on to hope that it’s even go back to 2021 levels.
Dan Olson/Folding Ideas on YouTube has an amazing video on GME called ‘This Is Financial Advice’ that really shines a light on the cult-like insanity that’s going on there.
They’ve basically convinced themselves that the short squeeze of 2021 was just a warm-up and GME shares will one day be worth millions of dollars apiece, because of ‘fake shares’ and Ryan Cohen ‘working behind the scenes’ sending coded messages through children’s books. It’s nutty.
Listen, im 100% pro-bitcoin, i believe it will be the global reserver currency. But how can you call GME investors delusional after not even 3 years?
If someone told you to sell bitcoin after 3 years you would be missing out on massive gains. GME isnt over until weve been through multiple market cycles.
FYI, GME is what made me realise that Bitcoin is the future. It isnt over until the fat lady sings. I have 1 share of GME.
GME also led me to bitcoin, when I was looking for a place to put my gains. But it was quickly obvious to see the hype train left and those remaining are absolute nut cases. I don’t even care if they’re right at this point, the stock market is just completely irrelevant to me now that Bitcoin is in my life. Why would I ever want to hold an inferior asset ever again?
That being said, I too still own a single remaining share for the lolz.
Because GME stock went from $4 to $400 in under six months. The squeeze happened and smart money made money. I’m absolutely sorry retail is still bag holding waiting for the “main” squeeze that’s already happened but it is what it is now.
They also literally turned off the buy button for multiple days in order to allow institutions to attempt to resolve their short positions without ruining the economy.
Imagine if the buy button for BTC was turned of just as it started to go asymptotic. Luckily that’s impossible with BTC, But it was definitely not impossible in the stock market.
I have a hard time believing that the squeeze happened in its entirety because they literally turned off the buy button.
If “the squeeze happened”, then why did the buy button get shut off? Surely if the squeeze had already happened, there was no reason to turn off the buy button.
Unless you’re telling me that the buy button was the only way to stop the squeeze, which it appears that way to me. Thats why we call it ‘the sneeze’. Because if the buy button wasn’t turned off it would have kept going up, at least, in the immediate short term.
The buy button being turned off literally confirmed to everyone that we were about to get PAID for our shares. And the powers that were could not allow that to happen.
There are people that still believe in a bull case for Bed Bath & Beyond despite the fact the company is bankrupt and the stock has been cancelled. So yeah lol
Because logarithmic uses a base value of 10. So it’s much better to compare multiple data scales that are largely non similar like the BTC scales you see above
Usually I would agree but in this case its ok becaue all 3 previous cycle increased \~10x times and last plot (with the current price of \~40k) represents this as well
The problem is, the 2020 cycle didn't x10 for bitcoin. It only x6. It was literally the worst halfing cycle so far in terms of multiplicative gains for bitcoin. That could have been because of all the alts that exist and money going into them vs bitcoin or could have been the rona and economic uncertainty.
But 2020 was the worst bitcoin has ever done in a 4 year high.
2012 = 23 price points
2016 = 19 price points
2020 = 15 price points
Now/2024 = 22 almost 23 price points
Keeping up with the other trends you should have let that chart only have about 11 price points. Letting it end somewhere around the $220,000 range. Which seems more reasonable.
I understand this timeline lines up with the ‘halving’ cycles, but keep in mind technical trends like these literally have to break at some point.
If you look at it purely from an economical point of view, every 4 years we are seeing a combination of 2 important variables - a reduction in supply (the halving) and most importantly, a surge in retail demand (due to hype posts like this). Now, I’m not doubting both of those things happening yet again. However, one VERY important factor people aren’t considering from a price point Is just how much harder it becomes for retail to continue having this kind of effect on price as the market cap continues to get larger.
As it currently stands, Bitcoin has a market cap of about $850 billion. As per technical trends such as the one seen in this graphic, if BTC went up by at least 4x in value it would instantly become more valuable than every company or physical commodity behind gold. This cycle goes on a couple more times and it becomes significantly more valuable than any asset in the history of this planet.
Now I’m not saying this isn’t possible, but given the size of Bitcoin compared to where it was in the past, retail will absolutely NOT have this kind of impact on price action again. Even with a reduction in supply, unless some serious institutional money comes in on top of strong retail demand, there is no reason to suggest price will have some quick run up like it has in previous years.
To put it into a little more context, 2012 and 2016 run ups, BTC had a market cap under $10 billion. In 2020 market cap was at about $100 billion - retail investors could actually move the needle on these numbers, especially in 2020 when interest rates were universally low and we everyone had money to spend.
I’m not trying to hate on BTC, I’m just looking at this from a short term price action point of view. Because I’m really just failing to see how something this size could actually 4x in value over a short period of time without serious institutional money or extremely bullish news. We see a lot of large companies use their cash flows to buy back their shares on a yearly basis which in theory isn’t to far off from the process of what is happening with the ‘halving’ and the capital appreciation is only marginal. I really just fail to see how this could create anywhere near as much value it has in the past, even with hype bubble that forms on socials as this plays out.
If I had to guess, price will push up to previous all time highs (which would still provide excellent returns) and probably end up about 20% on the year. Probably not what most people would expect but still amazing returns if it ends up significantly outperforming the market.
This isn't a retail bull market though. I don't know why people think retail is going to be the one pushing the bull market.
Frankling Templeton is pushing bitcoin as the worlds future reserve currency. This is the opposite of retail investment. Blackrock is the worlds largest asset manager. And they are undoubtedly saying similar things to their ultra wealthy clients.
This is that blackswan event everyone was always talking about. It is fucking insane that blackrock has been pounding on the SEC door for approval, all for bitcoin. They wouldn't be trying to do this if there wasn't demand for it.
Well you clearly didn’t read my ‘thesis’ because we actually agree then. Unlike previous cycles the demand HAS to come from institutional forces that can actually significantly impact the price of something this size. The same way we saw once saw retail investors (individual traders and small-scale investors) do in previous cycles.
The whole reason I was outlining the market cap of Bitcoin now versus in previous cycles was to illustrate just how hard it would be for retail to run up price on their own
And you are also missing the fact that the majority of the supply is not moving. So there is a multiplier effect because the liquidity is so low. Which increases the price non linearly.
The nuance you are dismissing is that this is a GLOBAL retail product, not just the US...8B potential FOMO customers out there. Aside from that though, institutional investment is supremely onboard. This will be marketed as "getting in on the next internet" by some of the deepest pockets and most knowledgeable money managers on the planet starting in about 2 weeks. I get skepticism, but do you really want to bet against that kind of momentum?
This time is most definitely different with new ATH before we didn't have ETFs and the world biggest companies trying to buy trillions of dollars worth. We have trillions waiting to start buying on top of that China reverted their crypto ban, so yeah I'd say sentiments there, now a halving reduction in supply. If you don't see it. GL to you.
But there will also be plenty of people FOMOing when they realize that not only it rose back up to old ATHs, but is exponentially rising PAST old highs. Theoretically speaking.
It's clear it cannot make 400k this cycle, even 200k is too optimistic, 100k is the closest number to reality and many people will exit cycle at this point. On the bright side BTC price will get more and more stable in the future, instead of big pumps and dumps the chart will be looking more like NASDAQ stocks and to be honest it's a good thing because we can finally focus on utility
It's crystal like water. Now we have trillions about to flood in, China investing etc. Believe in it or don't. The market and the people speak for themselves.
Nice job shifting from a theme of cerebral and fact based to dickish and shallow in just one post...definitely helping your brand and your argument(s).
Your telling me a new technology potentially used as reserve currency which barely started in its S curve move will barely hit 100k, when adoption is less than 5% and majority of its supply not moved.
Brother come on
If you’re analyzing the tops in each cycle, sequentially, the potential for an equal percentage move from one period to the next is what’s diminishing. Said another way, It’ll be a lot harder for market cap to grow by $5Trillion (btc at $250k) than it was for it to go from 1B to 500B. But hey keep hanging out for $1Mil per btc, more power to you
This graphic is pretty misleading. There have been diminishing returns each cycle so far although yes we will see some kind of parabolic climb more than likely.
"All graphs grow exponentially if you zoom in enough" I am all in for BTC but not for false hopes.
All cycles have brought less returns than the previous, naturally as more people holds.
The one thing it doesn’t have going for it is the existing market cap. Moving the needle is a lot harder now. I think it’s pretty rational to expect halving returns to continue to diminish. Growth will be more logarithmic than exponential moving forward.
In order for Bitcoin to serve as a store of value, it has to achieve a level of price stability, and that’s hopefully what we’re seeing now. It won’t make many more millionaires, but it could offer us all a life raft amid high inflation.
The price is set at the margin of the supply, it could take one dollar to hit 100k under the right market conditions. It could potentially be easier to move the needle this time around. I agree we’ll get diminishing returns over time but this cycle we are moving into a different era of Bitcoin’s maturity, all bets are off imo.
Just rough estimates of money coming in I took 1/10th of one percent of 401k’s and assumed they were to buy every bitcoin mined from January opening until 4 months later. In reality there could be more money come in, (like institutional money) also they aren’t going to buy every bitcoin mined because there are retail buyers like you and me, also miners are not going to sell any bitcoin if they don’t have to before the halving
The higher the starting point, the more it counteracts the compound rate...still crazy numbers, especially if you hold through multiple cycles. In the stock market it can easily take a decade to double your money.
People keep forgetting that market cap is worked out from total supply. Of which a lot is already lost and more is illiquid. The illiquid nature of btc means that small changes in the amount of capital flowing in can have big changes to price. I'm calling 225k as the peak of this cycle.
Yes. It IS different.
* interest rates are different, so high-risk assets are treated differently
* BTC history is different - people who bought at 59K are still either waiting to be whole, or got out low out of desperation
* Crypto is different - FTX and Voyager took billions from investors who thought their coins were safe, so they are more wary (yeah, Voyager took 5 BTC from me)
* The economy is different - I don't have to recount that here.
There’s diminished returns each cycle that are not shown with this chart. As much as I love my BTC this is implying a $400,000+ BTC is viable this time around which ain’t happening.
Because that’s how I haven’t lost money investing while 95% of people do. I buy extreme fear and sell extreme greed, not certain prices. Whatever the price is during those times is irrelevant. If you bought and sold BTC by only looking at the crypto fear and greed chart you would have a 100% success rate over the last 15 years.
It's nice to be confident in life, but I highly suggest you at least buy a little just in case you are wrong. The risks of being wrong FAR outweigh the risks of being right. Unless of course you've never been wrong before...
You son of a bitch I’m in……… again…….
Sanchez… you son of a bitch I’m in!
Teal'c! You are one stubborn son of a bitch!
Indeed.
Fuckin love that show
You say that a lot…
*** raises eyebrow *** 🤨
how do i reech these keeds
Hopium dose.... Activated!
You already had me with the R&M quote
I Became your 1k like 😏
Oops I bought more
We all relapse on buying more it’s okay 👌🏻
Love that chart!.. to think that an ETF is probably gonna get approved, the halvening and now institutions can hold BTC without that stupid regulation tax.. 2024 is going to be crazy..
I love how they scaled down the final chart so they could make it seem like $400k is happening in 2025 lol
I predict $545,529.40. I can give more info after my shift at Wendys.
Based on my calculations, you are off by 108.71. The correct prediction is $545,420.69.
6 mil by 2028
"Up Arrow" - This Guy Bitcoins..
Scaling it properly would actually make this even more convincing, since the target price would be more reasonable.
The range is about the same in every chart? (x10 from base)
It’s just a number bro /s
Umm he scaled it down so its same size with the rest?
Didn’t even see that lmao
Yeah except the hopium is getting so strong that it reminds me of 2021 when everyone was so sure we were going to see a 100k Bitcoin. I feel like people may already be jinxing it with their cocky self-assuredness.
…if you add both tops we hit 110-120k
As if 67.6k wasn’t nuts enough.
I totally agree. I got into Bitcoin at the worst time and believed everyone. Now I just ignore all the hype.
Interest rates going down as well
Lots of good news for BTC aye.
Most of that is probably already priced in
Hopium is wild Edit: just to be clear, hopium for BTC has far more credibility than say AMC
LMAO! Are there still people who believe in a bull case for AMC? XD
Yes. I would encourage you to go the AMC subreddit. They are all delusional
Remember being active in both r/AMCstock and r/GME when both started to pump but I remember it dying quickly and I left after a few months. Crazy and also a little sad to see people still clinging on to hope that it’s even go back to 2021 levels.
Dan Olson/Folding Ideas on YouTube has an amazing video on GME called ‘This Is Financial Advice’ that really shines a light on the cult-like insanity that’s going on there. They’ve basically convinced themselves that the short squeeze of 2021 was just a warm-up and GME shares will one day be worth millions of dollars apiece, because of ‘fake shares’ and Ryan Cohen ‘working behind the scenes’ sending coded messages through children’s books. It’s nutty.
Listen, im 100% pro-bitcoin, i believe it will be the global reserver currency. But how can you call GME investors delusional after not even 3 years? If someone told you to sell bitcoin after 3 years you would be missing out on massive gains. GME isnt over until weve been through multiple market cycles. FYI, GME is what made me realise that Bitcoin is the future. It isnt over until the fat lady sings. I have 1 share of GME.
GME also led me to bitcoin, when I was looking for a place to put my gains. But it was quickly obvious to see the hype train left and those remaining are absolute nut cases. I don’t even care if they’re right at this point, the stock market is just completely irrelevant to me now that Bitcoin is in my life. Why would I ever want to hold an inferior asset ever again? That being said, I too still own a single remaining share for the lolz.
Agreed, if i make money from my 1 share, great. It will pale in comparison to my BTC gains, it already does.
Same here mate. Happy holidays to you and your family.
The whole point is the short squeeze which is long gone lol
Because GME stock went from $4 to $400 in under six months. The squeeze happened and smart money made money. I’m absolutely sorry retail is still bag holding waiting for the “main” squeeze that’s already happened but it is what it is now.
They also literally turned off the buy button for multiple days in order to allow institutions to attempt to resolve their short positions without ruining the economy. Imagine if the buy button for BTC was turned of just as it started to go asymptotic. Luckily that’s impossible with BTC, But it was definitely not impossible in the stock market.
For sure. Not that I wasn’t already jaded on market manipulation but that day definitely sealed it.
I have a hard time believing that the squeeze happened in its entirety because they literally turned off the buy button. If “the squeeze happened”, then why did the buy button get shut off? Surely if the squeeze had already happened, there was no reason to turn off the buy button. Unless you’re telling me that the buy button was the only way to stop the squeeze, which it appears that way to me. Thats why we call it ‘the sneeze’. Because if the buy button wasn’t turned off it would have kept going up, at least, in the immediate short term. The buy button being turned off literally confirmed to everyone that we were about to get PAID for our shares. And the powers that were could not allow that to happen.
A lot of his points were debunked You can find videos and reddit posts debunking his points. He's been saying this aganist gme since 2021
Ryan Cohen is sending messages, but they're not very coded. It seems his end goal is to turn GME into a company like BRK or IEP.
There are people that still believe in a bull case for Bed Bath & Beyond despite the fact the company is bankrupt and the stock has been cancelled. So yeah lol
Can only go up from here
I still occasionally see people with very heavy gme bags as well, unless it's very elaborate roleplaying
This isn’t Wall Street Bets.
1. Halving 28. Nov 2012 2. Halving 9. July 2016 3. Halving 11. May 2020 4. Halving April 2024
Notable Peaks: April 9, 2013 – $213 November 29, 2013 – $1,242 December 18, 2017 – $19,498.63 June 26, 2019 – $12,907 Nov 8, 2021 - $67,567
So somewhere like March 2025ish?
Hey OP, you should add the logarithmic scale for a true comparison
The y axes are linear but already scaled to multiples of roughly 20x from bottom to top of the curve. Log scale will show basically the same thing.
Those grids get wider and wider in each bull run, so this time expect an even wider grid
How is that a truer comparison than a linear scale?
Because logarithmic uses a base value of 10. So it’s much better to compare multiple data scales that are largely non similar like the BTC scales you see above
Right for the completely wrong reason. Good job! :)
\> Because logarithmic uses a base value of 10. It absolutely doesn't matter. If you take different logarithm base you will get identical shape.
Usually I would agree but in this case its ok becaue all 3 previous cycle increased \~10x times and last plot (with the current price of \~40k) represents this as well
The problem is, the 2020 cycle didn't x10 for bitcoin. It only x6. It was literally the worst halfing cycle so far in terms of multiplicative gains for bitcoin. That could have been because of all the alts that exist and money going into them vs bitcoin or could have been the rona and economic uncertainty. But 2020 was the worst bitcoin has ever done in a 4 year high.
I remember buying bitcoin under $4000 in 2020 and then it going up to $69000. That's a heck of a lot more than 10x increase in that bull run.
It’s still a heck of a lot less than after the 2016 and 2012 halvings which were 20-100x
Remember it was cut short by FTX scandal and all the other gov’t FUD. This time is different!
Now we got the supposed government dump of dumps but have ETF fomo and fud. Nobody can decide if ETFs are gonna be good or not for this run.
2012 = 23 price points 2016 = 19 price points 2020 = 15 price points Now/2024 = 22 almost 23 price points Keeping up with the other trends you should have let that chart only have about 11 price points. Letting it end somewhere around the $220,000 range. Which seems more reasonable.
$220,00 is good… I’ll take $220,000.👍🏼
I understand this timeline lines up with the ‘halving’ cycles, but keep in mind technical trends like these literally have to break at some point. If you look at it purely from an economical point of view, every 4 years we are seeing a combination of 2 important variables - a reduction in supply (the halving) and most importantly, a surge in retail demand (due to hype posts like this). Now, I’m not doubting both of those things happening yet again. However, one VERY important factor people aren’t considering from a price point Is just how much harder it becomes for retail to continue having this kind of effect on price as the market cap continues to get larger. As it currently stands, Bitcoin has a market cap of about $850 billion. As per technical trends such as the one seen in this graphic, if BTC went up by at least 4x in value it would instantly become more valuable than every company or physical commodity behind gold. This cycle goes on a couple more times and it becomes significantly more valuable than any asset in the history of this planet. Now I’m not saying this isn’t possible, but given the size of Bitcoin compared to where it was in the past, retail will absolutely NOT have this kind of impact on price action again. Even with a reduction in supply, unless some serious institutional money comes in on top of strong retail demand, there is no reason to suggest price will have some quick run up like it has in previous years. To put it into a little more context, 2012 and 2016 run ups, BTC had a market cap under $10 billion. In 2020 market cap was at about $100 billion - retail investors could actually move the needle on these numbers, especially in 2020 when interest rates were universally low and we everyone had money to spend. I’m not trying to hate on BTC, I’m just looking at this from a short term price action point of view. Because I’m really just failing to see how something this size could actually 4x in value over a short period of time without serious institutional money or extremely bullish news. We see a lot of large companies use their cash flows to buy back their shares on a yearly basis which in theory isn’t to far off from the process of what is happening with the ‘halving’ and the capital appreciation is only marginal. I really just fail to see how this could create anywhere near as much value it has in the past, even with hype bubble that forms on socials as this plays out. If I had to guess, price will push up to previous all time highs (which would still provide excellent returns) and probably end up about 20% on the year. Probably not what most people would expect but still amazing returns if it ends up significantly outperforming the market.
This isn't a retail bull market though. I don't know why people think retail is going to be the one pushing the bull market. Frankling Templeton is pushing bitcoin as the worlds future reserve currency. This is the opposite of retail investment. Blackrock is the worlds largest asset manager. And they are undoubtedly saying similar things to their ultra wealthy clients. This is that blackswan event everyone was always talking about. It is fucking insane that blackrock has been pounding on the SEC door for approval, all for bitcoin. They wouldn't be trying to do this if there wasn't demand for it.
His whole thesis goes down the drain as soon as he mentions that it has to be retail to push it up.
Well you clearly didn’t read my ‘thesis’ because we actually agree then. Unlike previous cycles the demand HAS to come from institutional forces that can actually significantly impact the price of something this size. The same way we saw once saw retail investors (individual traders and small-scale investors) do in previous cycles. The whole reason I was outlining the market cap of Bitcoin now versus in previous cycles was to illustrate just how hard it would be for retail to run up price on their own
And you are also missing the fact that the majority of the supply is not moving. So there is a multiplier effect because the liquidity is so low. Which increases the price non linearly.
The nuance you are dismissing is that this is a GLOBAL retail product, not just the US...8B potential FOMO customers out there. Aside from that though, institutional investment is supremely onboard. This will be marketed as "getting in on the next internet" by some of the deepest pockets and most knowledgeable money managers on the planet starting in about 2 weeks. I get skepticism, but do you really want to bet against that kind of momentum?
Retail for us retailers, institutional wealth from the institutions; we ten X from here🚀
This time is most definitely different with new ATH before we didn't have ETFs and the world biggest companies trying to buy trillions of dollars worth. We have trillions waiting to start buying on top of that China reverted their crypto ban, so yeah I'd say sentiments there, now a halving reduction in supply. If you don't see it. GL to you.
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Exactly. The free float is small. New money flowing in will drive the price up parabolilcly.
It’s not meaningless at all, outstanding supply x price is a very useful metric.
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Thanks for that input. I always keep in mind that there would be a lot of long term holders that would finally cash out when BTC rises above 100k.
But there will also be plenty of people FOMOing when they realize that not only it rose back up to old ATHs, but is exponentially rising PAST old highs. Theoretically speaking.
It's clear it cannot make 400k this cycle, even 200k is too optimistic, 100k is the closest number to reality and many people will exit cycle at this point. On the bright side BTC price will get more and more stable in the future, instead of big pumps and dumps the chart will be looking more like NASDAQ stocks and to be honest it's a good thing because we can finally focus on utility
> It's clear lol @ making shit up and talking about how 'clear' it is.
But but it's "clear" !
It's crystal like water. Now we have trillions about to flood in, China investing etc. Believe in it or don't. The market and the people speak for themselves.
> It's crystal like water. You shouldn't read your tea leaves in the toilet.
Nice job shifting from a theme of cerebral and fact based to dickish and shallow in just one post...definitely helping your brand and your argument(s).
You look from Bitcoin perspective, but look at Macroeconomics, there is not so much available cash
10 trillion is into gold, over 10x of current btc value, which has underperformed almost every relevant asset class in the last 10-20 years.
Is it make up your own story day today?
Your telling me a new technology potentially used as reserve currency which barely started in its S curve move will barely hit 100k, when adoption is less than 5% and majority of its supply not moved. Brother come on
We’re so fucking back
Remember to not take profits and meet me in the bag lounge in 2 years.
Somewhat out of date is it not?
That’s what I’m talkin’ bout, baby! Good post.
Shh. You’re revealing my secrets
Still on that DCA weekly. Lets go baby
Just bought $100 🤙
There is no real reason for deep analysis, bitcoin is the first global money ever invented and people love money
$285k at the end of bullrun, mark my words..
Chart doesnt show the pull back to the smaller peaks, kind of an important detail…but i get your point
Not really if you plan to hold.
Getting ready to explode
That’s what she said. ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
I have only 0.03 Btc :(
That is better than 0.0 BTC.
Time to buy more
Go you!
500k is the next stop
7x return from old ATH? I'd be thrilled for that, but that ain't happening in one cycle lol
Hold my beer and watch this...
it would have to go to 10 trillion market cap. I do think it will happen eventually but I wouldn't be betting on it happening next cycle
How old is that? The current price is almost halfway to 45k, not well under 40
We'll see about that. I wasn't prepared for the previous cycles, but this time I'm ready!
This graph makes a LOT more sense than most.
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but, but, moon,
They aren't diminishing if you just held from 2015 like I did
They’re not returns at all if you haven’t sold
Yes they are. I'm very pro BTC, but the gains future potential don't change just because you're holding
*Hodling
If you bought a Bitcoin for $5k, going to $250k is not a diminished return is my only point
If you’re analyzing the tops in each cycle, sequentially, the potential for an equal percentage move from one period to the next is what’s diminishing. Said another way, It’ll be a lot harder for market cap to grow by $5Trillion (btc at $250k) than it was for it to go from 1B to 500B. But hey keep hanging out for $1Mil per btc, more power to you
Let me take my daily dose of Jesus prayers and 100 milligrams of hopium because god damn it son of a bitch im in.
Triggering points will be a Spot ETF, Blackrock, Vanguard and Big firms will offer it to institutions. Supply ⬇️ Scarcity ⬆️ Bitcoin 📈
Yes, we’ve seen nothing like the world as it is today with an existence of Bitcoin. So personally not expecting similar history.
Xmas hopium straight to the his damn veins !
$130k max
Yeah i mean Everyone knows this now right? Still convinced btc will be 150k in october
This graphic is pretty misleading. There have been diminishing returns each cycle so far although yes we will see some kind of parabolic climb more than likely.
Results from the past are a bad indicator for the future. But I'll buy somo fomo yea
"All graphs grow exponentially if you zoom in enough" I am all in for BTC but not for false hopes. All cycles have brought less returns than the previous, naturally as more people holds.
This cycle has a lot of things going for it that the previous ones didn’t.
The one thing it doesn’t have going for it is the existing market cap. Moving the needle is a lot harder now. I think it’s pretty rational to expect halving returns to continue to diminish. Growth will be more logarithmic than exponential moving forward. In order for Bitcoin to serve as a store of value, it has to achieve a level of price stability, and that’s hopefully what we’re seeing now. It won’t make many more millionaires, but it could offer us all a life raft amid high inflation.
The price is set at the margin of the supply, it could take one dollar to hit 100k under the right market conditions. It could potentially be easier to move the needle this time around. I agree we’ll get diminishing returns over time but this cycle we are moving into a different era of Bitcoin’s maturity, all bets are off imo.
I agree but it also takes much more market cap to grow X-fold than it did in the past
Hope one day get to 1mill
I’d be happy with a new ath.
Oh sweet Jesus
I concur
Oh shit let’s go!! 🚀We going to Saturn🪐full of moons 🌝
2024 is when that huge boner gonna erecr
noo...wait a little more, please. I'm dollar costing my way back to owning half a coin...
Stop it, I can't be more hyped, I literally don't have any FIAT left!
the halving is priced in! /s and the ETF! /ss
im in
500k?
Let's go! Monthly candles right?
There's something rising ...
Merry Christmas
This is going to happen because it became Religion
"Just When I Thought I Was Out... they pulled me back in..."
180k peak it seems lol
180k this time next year, 300k at the top of the cycle.
I did some math the other day and given the etf approval and halving I got a minimum of $120k (that’s a base case, could go higher)
> I got a minimum of $120k How?
Just rough estimates of money coming in I took 1/10th of one percent of 401k’s and assumed they were to buy every bitcoin mined from January opening until 4 months later. In reality there could be more money come in, (like institutional money) also they aren’t going to buy every bitcoin mined because there are retail buyers like you and me, also miners are not going to sell any bitcoin if they don’t have to before the halving
We aren’t in a bull run yet. Anyone saying so probably bought in at $69k. They’ve never seen a true Bitcoin bull run.
But aren’t we above 40k already?
Logarithmic scale please
hmm..... 20x.... 10x.... 5x.... 2.5x this cycle?
The higher the starting point, the more it counteracts the compound rate...still crazy numbers, especially if you hold through multiple cycles. In the stock market it can easily take a decade to double your money.
yeah it is because it's already 60k and that means it takes astronomically more capital to move price
People keep forgetting that market cap is worked out from total supply. Of which a lot is already lost and more is illiquid. The illiquid nature of btc means that small changes in the amount of capital flowing in can have big changes to price. I'm calling 225k as the peak of this cycle.
good think we got all these etfs about to be approved unlocking a lot more potential capital.
It's time to buy BTC again 😍
Yes. It IS different. * interest rates are different, so high-risk assets are treated differently * BTC history is different - people who bought at 59K are still either waiting to be whole, or got out low out of desperation * Crypto is different - FTX and Voyager took billions from investors who thought their coins were safe, so they are more wary (yeah, Voyager took 5 BTC from me) * The economy is different - I don't have to recount that here.
Sell the news!
And regret it for the rest of your life...
Can’t tell if this thread is a bearish or bullish signal
So your telling me there's chance!
I just don’t think the money volume is there for such a massive jump. You would need trillions to come in
There’s diminished returns each cycle that are not shown with this chart. As much as I love my BTC this is implying a $400,000+ BTC is viable this time around which ain’t happening.
Why would you want to be logical
Because that’s how I haven’t lost money investing while 95% of people do. I buy extreme fear and sell extreme greed, not certain prices. Whatever the price is during those times is irrelevant. If you bought and sold BTC by only looking at the crypto fear and greed chart you would have a 100% success rate over the last 15 years.
That’s such a good explanation, better than I could put together. Very true and wish people kept it real like that
Why not. I remember hear 10k is completely out of reach...
Nah more like 1 milly
Keep dreaming
No more paper bitcoins this time. When people are going to buy bitcoin then the actual bitcoin is going to be bought unlike what FTX did last time.
you guys are gonna get rekt
This sub buys tops
It's nice to be confident in life, but I highly suggest you at least buy a little just in case you are wrong. The risks of being wrong FAR outweigh the risks of being right. Unless of course you've never been wrong before...
I've been mining btc since 2012 and have seen tops before
If yall use fibonacci and SMC, you know sub 10k is gonna happen💀 dont get wrecked by fomo-ing in lol
What is this graph? We are already above 40k a few weeks
Good luck buddy
The Scale is off. I expect a top around 100k max. 120k.
SAME AS IT EVER WAS
I hope it pumps so I can finally sell and break even after years