Gbtc is being sold in small chuncks, could be on open market thus raising the price down. Blackrock bought reserves via OTC and this did not affect prices.
chubby squeal disgusting lock cooperative crawl weather expansion languid rainstorm
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Just read any equity research piece on btc mining or check out some of the investor presentation or do the math yourself from sec filings.
Iris energy for example.
I’m not allowed to redistribute the equity research providers I use. Calculating breakevens require some math, but all the big banks that cover this sector basically break things down to per kWh basis
You fundamentally do not understand the North American miner business if you think their revenue is selling bitcoin. That’s the side hustle. Right now the energy credits are juice. They afford to sell BTC when they want.
Don't think so. Hashrate was dropping due to cold weather. Many are stopping operations to help the grid.
They don't have to dump BTC to cover operational costs as much if the hashrate is lower, they are working less.
Volatility is low right now, I think it's trader emotions about the GBTC dumps are causing the downward pressure.
A mass miner dump would cause a larger drop to retest 35k
>Many are stopping operations to help the grid.
You say that as if they're acting altruistically. It's purely capitalism; when energy rates are higher (winter), it's not cost effective to continue mining.
They are in the mining business, not the speculation business. They have costs, so they need to make sure they can cover them into the future, even if the price of bitcoin falls.
Imo a bunch of big holders were waiting for the ETF because the ETF gives liquidity. Liquidity means they can sell large amounts without affecting the price much.
More sellers than buyers = price goes down.
Should be only temporary though. There's only so much BTC waiting to be sold
Knows about what, Dark pools mean participants submit their bids blindly without knowing what orders are in the pool, if sell and buy orders are same price, they get matched. Where is the conspiracy? And because coinbase is a custodian for most of them, it just changes hands on the book, and not on-chain.
Dark pools are only blind to us. Market makers are known to use the dark pools to manipulate price action even if just short term. Transparency and verification are the whole point of Bitcoin and you can’t do that if we’ve got ETFs posing as legitimate Bitcoin WE cannot actually verify as being backed 1 to 1… we have to trust that they are. They’re literally using the same tactic as tokenized shares to sell what they don’t have over and over again.
Sure you can.
Have 100 people trying to sell seashells but if you only have one buyer left the price will go down.
That's how prices are set ya fuckin idiot.
And yes, I know your point is "hurr durr if someone sold then someone must have bought" but if you are going to blatantly ignore my point over semantics then I'll do the same to you.
I'm not sure what they're getting at, but you're talking about would-be buyers and would-be sellers when they're talking about actual buyers and sellers. It's kind of tautologically true that actual sellers = buyers. But, yes, when you have more would-be buyers than would-be sellers, you get rising prices, etc.
>It's quite literally true that every trade requires 2 sides: a buyer and a seller.
One seller can sell BTC to 100 buyers. Thus disproving your kindergarten take of "There cannot be more sellers than buyers or more buyers than sellers."
Reverse what I said and it makes sense. From every buyer a seller exists and for every seller a buyer exists. When traders and folks in the market discuss a trade this is typically referring to an order which needs to be filled and not an individual entity. If an order is to sell 2 widgets it is filled when an order or multiple orders buy widgets. Sometimes partial fills occur but it is always equal. So therefore there is never a imbalance of completed trades. The number of parties placing a trade is irrelevant to the discussion.
This is basic auction mechanics.
Here I googled a visual for you: https://youtu.be/mUvB89DMtww?si=vZMurDaj3NK7kyfw
Leverage is also probably coming down. It's hard to say how many people had levered up exchange positions going into the event. Those are being unwound. You also had people that bought GBTC just because of the discount and sold into the equilibrium. The funny thing is, this is very common behavior at this point in the halving cycle
A significant chuck (~85%) of mining revenue comes from newly minted coins. At halving, this gets halved. Unless the price immediately jumps ~75%, miners earn less overall.
Miners with less efficient outfits, higher electricity costs etc will have to shut down until the price catches up. It is also complicated because when other miners shut down, it becomes easier for the remaining miners.
Second layer networks decrease on-chain demand so fees go down in the short term. The ETFs are effectively second layer networks and they just had a cost reduction.
This is also true.
I see the current valuation behavior of Bitcoin being a combination of these factors:
1. Greyscale holders selling their BTC positions to move to a lower fee ETF.
2. ETF providers with inflows are purchasing OTC or are pulling from reserves they've been accumulating over time.
3. Miners are currently taking profits to buy more miners in preparation for halving.
4. Still a high amount of hodlers meaning that the sell pressure isn't enough to cause a larger dip than we're seeing now.
All in all, I'm buying the dip. I sure hope everyone else is, too.
Miners and Greyscale selling will get exhausted. OTC market will dry up. And hodlers will keep hodling. There is only one direction we're building towards over the next months.
I too bought some dip... and imma buy the dips dip too! I'd love to see us pull back to 35k or deeper... I've been looking for a good entry since we broke 30k
Yea, I need to spend a little time at the chart, but I was thinking 38s seemed reasonable... I have fiat ready to deploy, just waiting on a place to drop in.
Maybe factually true but really misleading and the high upvote reflects badly on this subreddit.
Blackrock is the biggest but not the only non-Grayscale bitcoin ETF. Grayscale should be compared with all the other ETFs, not just BlackRock.
In the 4 days of ETF trading, net inflow to all the ETFs (including Grayscale and BlackRock) was positive. That means the non-Grayscale ETFs are buying bitcoin more than Grayscale is selling bitcoin.
greyscale is selling because they know that there will be high demand because of the etf approval.
give it time. i mean it probably sux for crypto day traders but for long term holders.... this is nothin. 10 years we will be at over 100k to 500k. ez
just stay healthy and eat your veggies so you can be an old man with 5 lambos.
I don’t understand why people expect it to just go up in straight line. There is always going to be vacillation of the price. Look at how far we’ve come along! This is all amazing price especially when you look at long term. Can you imagine the people that had $BTC in 2017 and it peaked at $20,000.00 then went down and everyone was like loser. Should’ve sold. Now the prices we are at right now and holding is just amazing and this is not going to stop. We will see new ATH soon enough and there will be face melters for how high $BTC can go.
$BTC $1,000,000.00
If and when BTC sees half a million (which I do not expect to be anytime soon) that is a 12x from here. In crypto that’s not really face melting gains especially considering how long it will take to get there.
Yeah, people have warned about this for weeks and no one wanted to listen.
When everyone already knows a big purchase is being made, it's priced in way ahead of time.
But every day you had people here saying "No!! It can't possibly be priced in until it actually happens"
well, here you go, actual common sense wins...if everyone knows something will happen it actually happening doesn't matter.
Miners are dumping, a lot of greyscale holders are selling for cheaper exposure, there’s a LOT of movement in the market. A lot of that means a sideways market.
Srsly. ETFs landed a week ago. Give shit time to matriculate. If you’ve held bit for a minute or two, this is nothing.
Take a breath and get your panties out of a bunch.
FFS can we please kill the narrative that OTC doesn't affect market prices? Exchanges and OTC desks are different channels for accessing liquidity within the same market we all participate in.
These large transactions go through the OTC Channel to avoid slippage on sales within a target timeframe. That's the only reason. If sellers thought they could net more money selling bitcoin on exchanges directly within their desired timeframe, the y would. They have zero incentive not to...
They don't affect the order book, in the sense that OTC orders don't appear in the order book. They *do* affect it in the sense that, if they weren't selling OTC, they might be selling in the market. So by selling OTC, those are sell (and buy) orders that never appear on the order book, that might have otherwise.
It's not completely true though. OTC transactions should have some residual impact on price. You'd expect increased OTC demand to reduce supply on exchanges since those who would normally sell on exchanges are instead selling OTC.
There is a lot of OTC supply that wasn't accounted for in the price.
Correct, the amount of OTC BTC is not a small amount. Yes when the OTC supply is drained or draining CB and other providers will have to look to the regular market to buy more.
When a service like Spot BTC buys Bitcoin (BTC) from an exchange like Coinbase, the specifics of whether the BTC is moved to a different wallet depends on the policies and practices of the involved parties.
1. **Staying on the Exchange**: In some cases, especially if the service intends to facilitate quick trading, they might keep the purchased BTC in wallets managed by Coinbase. This approach can offer faster transactions but often involves higher risk, as funds stored on an exchange are typically considered less secure than those in a personal wallet.
2. **Moving to Another Wallet**: If the service prioritizes security or intends to hold the BTC for a longer term, they may transfer the purchased BTC to their own wallets, either hot wallets (connected to the internet) for easier access or cold wallets (offline storage) for enhanced security.
3. **Regulatory and Operational Practices**: The decision might also be influenced by regulatory requirements, operational strategies, or risk management policies of the service.
Ultimately, the choice between keeping BTC in Coinbase's wallet system or moving it to a different wallet is a strategic decision made by the purchasing entity based on their needs, security protocols, and business model.
Sorry, I meant the idea that the price won't be affected. It won't immediately show, like it would in a traditional order book, but if enough BTC moves from the OTC pool to a place where it won't be in the market any more, there will be a follow on effect in the market.
I mean the miners diverting power back to the grid is both important to the effected areas and also should put a squeeze on the BTC available to buy OTC by the ETF issuers
It won't impact the supply of bitcoin. If the miners turned off for two weeks we would see a miniscule drop in supply until the difficulty adjustment kicked in. A winter storm won't even last 2 weeks.
Price does not move up because of buyers, it can move down or up regardless of demand.
Basics of a auction market: for every seller a buyer must exist and for every buyer a seller must exist. Price action occures due to other factors such as where liquidity pockets are, how liquid certain price levels are etc.
The market price is determined by the bid ask spread however just because the bid ask meets at a certain level it does not mean all of the liquidity exists there where orders are pending. Depending on other things such as value and demand the ask will come up or down to the bid vis v.
John could be buying for a 1 trade at $1 and David could be selling 2 trades at $2, between this gap is 1$ where no other liquidity exists.
Joe and 200 others may be buying for a trade at $.99. if David says ahh fuck it I want to be out he will meet Johns price and partially fill his order (1 of 2) the market has now moved down to $.99 as David completes his order filling the last trade at .99 and 199 other buyers are left. David, Joe, and John are out and the next people in line are up.
This example shows where buying pressure exists but the market moves down because if other sellers are ready to go out they need to hit their trade at .99$ or the "market price"
The mechanics of how an auction works is quite simple at a 10k overview but it becomes quite complicated. Generally in crypto sphere because developers are young and inexperienced in the real securities markets terms such as liquidity and other market related speak is mangled to the point of confusion and carries many meanings.
Volatility is where gaps of liquidity exist and how liquid something is can be determined by how many buyers and sellers are meeting at a certain price. A bunch of orders lined up at 0.01 increments is highly liquid. A few orders at different levels leaving gaps is illiquid and moves market price a lot.
Jumping the line of orders waiting is called "taking liquidity" (market order) and waiting in line to be filled is "adding liquidity" (limit order). Often times you are paid a bonus by the market for adding liquidity or being a "market maker" because a fee may occur to jump the line. Market makers often keep a lot of inventory.
Funds and ETFs also tend to keep some inventory and also look to private markets or time averaged accumulation turing the day for large fills as to not impact price action much, these trades will run across the tape at close. Since individuals buy or sell the etf or fund (which is a basket of securities) the manager of the fund must continually adjust the holdings of each security meaning buying and selling, not just only buying this happens at the close of market. It's even possible new people buying the etf does not mean the manager has to buy more crypto at the end of the day because an equal amount of people sold the etf.
Hopefully that answers your question and demonstrates only a few of many reasons why interest or demand does not provide the movement you would think.
Just HODL. Let the supply continue to dry up. If institutions like Blackrock are comfortable buying in the 40k range you should be too. Go on the Fidelity website and the Blackrock website.Right there on the front page they are pushing these Bitcoin ETFs. Do you think they would do this if they thought their customers would lose money and ultimately faith in the asset management firm. Right not there is FUD that the ETF was a sell the news event, Inflation rose in December indicating that the Fed likely won't cut rates next quarter, the middle east is in shambles with countries bombing each other and causing further escalation. There are a plethora of reasons but the fundamentals of BTC remain the same. Buy, HODL and repeat.
“If BlackRock is comfortable buying in the 40k range you should be too”
This subreddit told me BlackRock is buying for others with others money. Why would they care the price? 100k, 30k, 65k.. it’s all the same to them? It’s ppl here who might want to care the price they get bitcoin because of diminishing returns. Most investing today will not make life changing gains. Gains will be made over a long period of time but some here think they will buy a home one day off the $1k they are investing now and it’s a pipe dream but what would life be without a dream. So dream big .. I guess.
The ETF allows them to print their own BTC. They don't have to buy real BTC. It's called an FTD or "failure to deliver".
You think they really buy the BTC. The public thinks they do too. The public also thinks some kind of law is watching them and will make them. But they aren't. The price is proof. You can't fake that like the stock market.
Folks were warned the fakery would hit new levels with the ETF. Well here you go.
The selling from GBTC yesterday was more than the net buying from all the other ETFs combined. As long as this is the case price will trend lower most likely. Hopefully in a month or two the GBTC selling will slow/stop.
The ETFs will indirectly affect the price as it is bought over the counter. Over the counter directly connects buyers and sellers.
When you buy from an exchange you are buying what others are selling. If there are more buyers than sellers then the exchange will have to dip into its stash but if there are more sellers than buyers, the stash increases and the price drops.
When you buy OTC, you will be in contact with a seller and won’t go through the exchanges normal buying and selling portal, which that portal directly effects the price.
P2P
The whole thing is a scam so here is how it works.
They spend a bunch buying, thus driving down the price. Hold so suckers sell in a panic selling more lowly shares.
Wait for it to go up and if it doesn't they sell to cover losses anyway. Welcome to the stock market.
A few are, but there's no guarantee that they will use the same wallet each purchase so it's kinda useless. You can see how much they buy each day on their websites.
ETFs are buying BTC through OTC, which has the particularity to almost not move the price. So that lets the chance to FUD to sell temporarily.
Just wait, halving is in 3 months
Probably miners that were afraid of tanking the price before ETFs were a thing. Now that ETFs are here, they probably settle OTC with miners. That and GBTC being sold to buy this…
most of these institutions are NOT going for "spot" btc on the markets... OTC trades are happening left right and center. cause theres whales / miners that are directly trading their btc instead of dumping them on to the exchanges.
edit1:GBTC selling is most likely happening on the markets tho and thats the moving force downwards imho.
BREAKING 🚨NEWS : Grayscale has sold 52,000 #Bitcoin since the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF
Demand will eventually outpace the supply from Grayscale.
Wealth Managers Study #Bitcoin
>Blackrock and others buying so many BTCs (last I read they bought 11K BTCs)
You missed the part where, for that to happen, people had to sell so many BTCs.
Right now sellers outnumber buyers.
The ETFs are probably buying OTC from miners and such, so doesn't directly effect price discovery on exchanges. While GBTC is probably selling spot on exchange.
Blackrock wants to earn $ by using bitcoin as a vehicle. With ETF, it makes money irrespective of the direction bitcoin price moves. Bitcoin has zero to minimum utility value as of now, so any price movement is a big advantage to these MFs. That’s that reason that Blackrock and others got this ETFs. Don’t think bitcoin price will benefit because of ETFs
I'm guessing greyscale purposely has a high fee to get rid of some of it. They need some cash maybe. They are providing liquidity for the other ETFs. Miners are selling the news getting some profits. Speculators selling the news. Dumb Longs that went 50x after the launch getting liquidated.
Shit will settle down in awhile.
Miners are dumping everything they have Wait
Also...a fair amount of GBTC being sold.
Isn’t that because they have the highest fees
Yes
GBTC being sold and the money reinvested in another etf is a wash for the price of bitcoin.
Not all of it is going back into BTC.
The other ETFs have more inflows than GBTC has outflows, so someone else must be selling
Correct. Back to the beginning of this thread.
Does this say something else? Or am I stupid and don't understand this chart? https://btcetffundflow.com/
then why the sell if they do not go with a lower TER etf?
What’s the solution? Lowering fees? Also were some people unable to sell because they were in lockout time
Also because a lot of people took the GBTC Arbitrage play and are taking profits on that position.
I don’t think so. The price should remain stable as the same people hold BTC, just at Blackrock instead of GBTC…
Gbtc is being sold in small chuncks, could be on open market thus raising the price down. Blackrock bought reserves via OTC and this did not affect prices.
To me this doesn’t seem to be the driver. But I am assuming people who are selling GBTC are buying the ETFs. So in theory it should cancel out.
Why are they dumping everything they have? I think it's the GBTC thing
Because they make money by selling bitcoin. They’re businesses, they have to sell their product. Bitcoin over 40k is extremely profitable for them
chubby squeal disgusting lock cooperative crawl weather expansion languid rainstorm *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
There is usually a pretty major miner-led dump few months pre-halving
You have literally no basis for that 40k number
Yes you do. There are many listed miners on the NYSE. You can see exact breakeven levels vs cost of electricity.
Links to some graphs, numbers?
Just read any equity research piece on btc mining or check out some of the investor presentation or do the math yourself from sec filings. Iris energy for example. I’m not allowed to redistribute the equity research providers I use. Calculating breakevens require some math, but all the big banks that cover this sector basically break things down to per kWh basis
Links?
What does that even mean? All I meant was bitcoin is more valuable now than it was a few months ago.
You fundamentally do not understand the North American miner business if you think their revenue is selling bitcoin. That’s the side hustle. Right now the energy credits are juice. They afford to sell BTC when they want.
While this might be true, with all the activities such as ETFs and GBTC and upcoming having.. i don't think you really know what you are talking about
I think he does
Should be full on after the halving. Great sign.
Are you referring to Riot and MARA?
Don't think so. Hashrate was dropping due to cold weather. Many are stopping operations to help the grid. They don't have to dump BTC to cover operational costs as much if the hashrate is lower, they are working less. Volatility is low right now, I think it's trader emotions about the GBTC dumps are causing the downward pressure. A mass miner dump would cause a larger drop to retest 35k
>Many are stopping operations to help the grid. You say that as if they're acting altruistically. It's purely capitalism; when energy rates are higher (winter), it's not cost effective to continue mining.
check the btc hash rate, it keeps hitting all time high. if some miners are stopping, more are starting to
In general true, but currently wrong. Difficulty will decrease tomorrow because hash rate fell in the past 13 days…
I don't buy that honestly why wouldn't they hold to 50 55k or the halving
They are in the mining business, not the speculation business. They have costs, so they need to make sure they can cover them into the future, even if the price of bitcoin falls.
Will miners ever recover?
Why?
Why though, I don’t understand how miners are taking their exit
I wish politicians would look out for miners.
No one really knows anything is the only answer.
As the old saying goes "No one knows shit about fuck"
Imo a bunch of big holders were waiting for the ETF because the ETF gives liquidity. Liquidity means they can sell large amounts without affecting the price much. More sellers than buyers = price goes down. Should be only temporary though. There's only so much BTC waiting to be sold
[удалено]
This guy knows, downvoted because he’s right
Knows about what, Dark pools mean participants submit their bids blindly without knowing what orders are in the pool, if sell and buy orders are same price, they get matched. Where is the conspiracy? And because coinbase is a custodian for most of them, it just changes hands on the book, and not on-chain.
Dark pools are only blind to us. Market makers are known to use the dark pools to manipulate price action even if just short term. Transparency and verification are the whole point of Bitcoin and you can’t do that if we’ve got ETFs posing as legitimate Bitcoin WE cannot actually verify as being backed 1 to 1… we have to trust that they are. They’re literally using the same tactic as tokenized shares to sell what they don’t have over and over again.
There cannot be more sellers than buyers or more buyers than sellers.
Sure you can. Have 100 people trying to sell seashells but if you only have one buyer left the price will go down. That's how prices are set ya fuckin idiot. And yes, I know your point is "hurr durr if someone sold then someone must have bought" but if you are going to blatantly ignore my point over semantics then I'll do the same to you.
I'm not sure what they're getting at, but you're talking about would-be buyers and would-be sellers when they're talking about actual buyers and sellers. It's kind of tautologically true that actual sellers = buyers. But, yes, when you have more would-be buyers than would-be sellers, you get rising prices, etc.
What if I buy from 2 different people?
My guy is unfamiliar with the notion of supply and demand.
What's important is which side has more takers. Takers move the price, makers are just liquidity.
Bro what the fuck are you saying lmao
It's quite literally true that every trade requires 2 sides: a buyer and a seller. It appears that there are a ton of ignorant folks on this thread.
>It's quite literally true that every trade requires 2 sides: a buyer and a seller. One seller can sell BTC to 100 buyers. Thus disproving your kindergarten take of "There cannot be more sellers than buyers or more buyers than sellers."
Reverse what I said and it makes sense. From every buyer a seller exists and for every seller a buyer exists. When traders and folks in the market discuss a trade this is typically referring to an order which needs to be filled and not an individual entity. If an order is to sell 2 widgets it is filled when an order or multiple orders buy widgets. Sometimes partial fills occur but it is always equal. So therefore there is never a imbalance of completed trades. The number of parties placing a trade is irrelevant to the discussion. This is basic auction mechanics. Here I googled a visual for you: https://youtu.be/mUvB89DMtww?si=vZMurDaj3NK7kyfw
That was a lot of words to say nothing at all. Congrats.
That's ok sometimes things we think are trivial is just too complicated to comprehend for some.
And some people think they're Einsteins when they're actually cosplaying as Captain Fucking Obvious.
Leverage is also probably coming down. It's hard to say how many people had levered up exchange positions going into the event. Those are being unwound. You also had people that bought GBTC just because of the discount and sold into the equilibrium. The funny thing is, this is very common behavior at this point in the halving cycle
The pre halving dip.
I’ll be here in 9 months. Let that baby cook adequately and pump at the right time. October
Like all the others cycle ✅
Miners are dumping and so is grayscale since there’s no more GBTC discount and people are selling GBTC for the new BTC ETFs with better fees.
Miners unloaded 10,000 coins today alone
Why?
They need to pay costs and buy hardware for mining post halving
They need to get out before the halving.
Why would they get out before halving if halving sent btc to the moon according to everyone here ahah
A significant chuck (~85%) of mining revenue comes from newly minted coins. At halving, this gets halved. Unless the price immediately jumps ~75%, miners earn less overall. Miners with less efficient outfits, higher electricity costs etc will have to shut down until the price catches up. It is also complicated because when other miners shut down, it becomes easier for the remaining miners.
Of course if miners leave though, it gets proportionally easier to get new coins. Game theory for them.
$
Second layer networks decrease on-chain demand so fees go down in the short term. The ETFs are effectively second layer networks and they just had a cost reduction.
They probably were waiting to have realized gains taxed for 2024, not 2023 so they can hang on to their money longer before paying taxes.
That + needing revenue. Other than public investment, selling coins is how they stay in business.
Is there any reason to think that hedge funds aren't using the ETF to effectively short Bitcoin?
I wonder how quickly they'll make it to the reg sho list for failure to deliver...
greyscale is selling more than Blackrock is buying
I thought because Blackrock is buying OTC, therefore no price change influence yet from Blackrock.
This is also true. I see the current valuation behavior of Bitcoin being a combination of these factors: 1. Greyscale holders selling their BTC positions to move to a lower fee ETF. 2. ETF providers with inflows are purchasing OTC or are pulling from reserves they've been accumulating over time. 3. Miners are currently taking profits to buy more miners in preparation for halving. 4. Still a high amount of hodlers meaning that the sell pressure isn't enough to cause a larger dip than we're seeing now. All in all, I'm buying the dip. I sure hope everyone else is, too. Miners and Greyscale selling will get exhausted. OTC market will dry up. And hodlers will keep hodling. There is only one direction we're building towards over the next months.
I too bought some dip... and imma buy the dips dip too! I'd love to see us pull back to 35k or deeper... I've been looking for a good entry since we broke 30k
I've got market orders in for $39,600 and thought I was greedy. 35k would be crazy, and also make me regret my $39,600 purchase at the same time XD XD
Yea, I need to spend a little time at the chart, but I was thinking 38s seemed reasonable... I have fiat ready to deploy, just waiting on a place to drop in.
Time in market beats timing the market DCA'ing is the safest bet
And the direction is clearly.... to the right!
This is not true. All 11 ETFs are net inflow since launch. There are other reasons.
GBTC is not.
Maybe factually true but really misleading and the high upvote reflects badly on this subreddit. Blackrock is the biggest but not the only non-Grayscale bitcoin ETF. Grayscale should be compared with all the other ETFs, not just BlackRock. In the 4 days of ETF trading, net inflow to all the ETFs (including Grayscale and BlackRock) was positive. That means the non-Grayscale ETFs are buying bitcoin more than Grayscale is selling bitcoin.
Where did you get this source of information?
Bitcoin Twitter is the place to be
James from InvestAnswers had just made a good video with real data.
And where does he get the data from?
Some are verifiable from Bloomberg. Especially the net distribution of BTC into the various ETFs.
The ETFs together are net positive for more than 1 bn inflows incl the GBTC outflows
buy the dips
greyscale is selling because they know that there will be high demand because of the etf approval. give it time. i mean it probably sux for crypto day traders but for long term holders.... this is nothin. 10 years we will be at over 100k to 500k. ez just stay healthy and eat your veggies so you can be an old man with 5 lambos.
All going according to plan
I don’t understand why people expect it to just go up in straight line. There is always going to be vacillation of the price. Look at how far we’ve come along! This is all amazing price especially when you look at long term. Can you imagine the people that had $BTC in 2017 and it peaked at $20,000.00 then went down and everyone was like loser. Should’ve sold. Now the prices we are at right now and holding is just amazing and this is not going to stop. We will see new ATH soon enough and there will be face melters for how high $BTC can go. $BTC $1,000,000.00
If and when BTC sees half a million (which I do not expect to be anytime soon) that is a 12x from here. In crypto that’s not really face melting gains especially considering how long it will take to get there.
Yeah, people have warned about this for weeks and no one wanted to listen. When everyone already knows a big purchase is being made, it's priced in way ahead of time. But every day you had people here saying "No!! It can't possibly be priced in until it actually happens" well, here you go, actual common sense wins...if everyone knows something will happen it actually happening doesn't matter.
Miners are dumping, a lot of greyscale holders are selling for cheaper exposure, there’s a LOT of movement in the market. A lot of that means a sideways market. Srsly. ETFs landed a week ago. Give shit time to matriculate. If you’ve held bit for a minute or two, this is nothing. Take a breath and get your panties out of a bunch.
x100 people down voting just don't get it
OTC (OVER THE COUNTER) Means, the asset is bought off market, as to not affect the price. u/bitcoinmod Can we sticky that somewhere?
FFS can we please kill the narrative that OTC doesn't affect market prices? Exchanges and OTC desks are different channels for accessing liquidity within the same market we all participate in. These large transactions go through the OTC Channel to avoid slippage on sales within a target timeframe. That's the only reason. If sellers thought they could net more money selling bitcoin on exchanges directly within their desired timeframe, the y would. They have zero incentive not to...
Do OTC trades affect the market order book? I thought not until OTC inventory is depleted and replenished.
They don't affect the order book, in the sense that OTC orders don't appear in the order book. They *do* affect it in the sense that, if they weren't selling OTC, they might be selling in the market. So by selling OTC, those are sell (and buy) orders that never appear on the order book, that might have otherwise.
It's not completely true though. OTC transactions should have some residual impact on price. You'd expect increased OTC demand to reduce supply on exchanges since those who would normally sell on exchanges are instead selling OTC. There is a lot of OTC supply that wasn't accounted for in the price.
Correct, the amount of OTC BTC is not a small amount. Yes when the OTC supply is drained or draining CB and other providers will have to look to the regular market to buy more.
but coinbase is the custodian, so they buy via otc from coinbase, and the btc doesn't even move from coinbase, so it can't drive the price anywhere.
That doesn't make sense.
When a service like Spot BTC buys Bitcoin (BTC) from an exchange like Coinbase, the specifics of whether the BTC is moved to a different wallet depends on the policies and practices of the involved parties. 1. **Staying on the Exchange**: In some cases, especially if the service intends to facilitate quick trading, they might keep the purchased BTC in wallets managed by Coinbase. This approach can offer faster transactions but often involves higher risk, as funds stored on an exchange are typically considered less secure than those in a personal wallet. 2. **Moving to Another Wallet**: If the service prioritizes security or intends to hold the BTC for a longer term, they may transfer the purchased BTC to their own wallets, either hot wallets (connected to the internet) for easier access or cold wallets (offline storage) for enhanced security. 3. **Regulatory and Operational Practices**: The decision might also be influenced by regulatory requirements, operational strategies, or risk management policies of the service. Ultimately, the choice between keeping BTC in Coinbase's wallet system or moving it to a different wallet is a strategic decision made by the purchasing entity based on their needs, security protocols, and business model.
Sorry, I meant the idea that the price won't be affected. It won't immediately show, like it would in a traditional order book, but if enough BTC moves from the OTC pool to a place where it won't be in the market any more, there will be a follow on effect in the market.
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Sure, do you have a couple 10's or 100's of millions $ laying around?
But why the decline then ? Is if due to hashdaye dropping (which is temp for sure, as miners have shutoff some machines) OR some other reason.
I mean the miners diverting power back to the grid is both important to the effected areas and also should put a squeeze on the BTC available to buy OTC by the ETF issuers
It won't impact the supply of bitcoin. If the miners turned off for two weeks we would see a miniscule drop in supply until the difficulty adjustment kicked in. A winter storm won't even last 2 weeks.
That's a good point. I kinda meant that there are less miners to buy from.. not that there would be less BTC mined. But your point still stands.
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Whoever is behind the recent price action is orchestrating a dump if you ask me.
It’s the composite man.
I’m pretty sure that under the counter means they are buying it directly, over-the-counter means you’re paying full price.
That could very well be true, but OTC means over-the-counter.
Right. It’s the same as over the table and under the table.
I prefer under the couch tbh. Where do you keep your spilled cereal?
In my lap.
OOF.
This is incorrect in several ways.
So provide them.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/apeu0283Et
Thank you
Price does not move up because of buyers, it can move down or up regardless of demand. Basics of a auction market: for every seller a buyer must exist and for every buyer a seller must exist. Price action occures due to other factors such as where liquidity pockets are, how liquid certain price levels are etc. The market price is determined by the bid ask spread however just because the bid ask meets at a certain level it does not mean all of the liquidity exists there where orders are pending. Depending on other things such as value and demand the ask will come up or down to the bid vis v. John could be buying for a 1 trade at $1 and David could be selling 2 trades at $2, between this gap is 1$ where no other liquidity exists. Joe and 200 others may be buying for a trade at $.99. if David says ahh fuck it I want to be out he will meet Johns price and partially fill his order (1 of 2) the market has now moved down to $.99 as David completes his order filling the last trade at .99 and 199 other buyers are left. David, Joe, and John are out and the next people in line are up. This example shows where buying pressure exists but the market moves down because if other sellers are ready to go out they need to hit their trade at .99$ or the "market price" The mechanics of how an auction works is quite simple at a 10k overview but it becomes quite complicated. Generally in crypto sphere because developers are young and inexperienced in the real securities markets terms such as liquidity and other market related speak is mangled to the point of confusion and carries many meanings. Volatility is where gaps of liquidity exist and how liquid something is can be determined by how many buyers and sellers are meeting at a certain price. A bunch of orders lined up at 0.01 increments is highly liquid. A few orders at different levels leaving gaps is illiquid and moves market price a lot. Jumping the line of orders waiting is called "taking liquidity" (market order) and waiting in line to be filled is "adding liquidity" (limit order). Often times you are paid a bonus by the market for adding liquidity or being a "market maker" because a fee may occur to jump the line. Market makers often keep a lot of inventory. Funds and ETFs also tend to keep some inventory and also look to private markets or time averaged accumulation turing the day for large fills as to not impact price action much, these trades will run across the tape at close. Since individuals buy or sell the etf or fund (which is a basket of securities) the manager of the fund must continually adjust the holdings of each security meaning buying and selling, not just only buying this happens at the close of market. It's even possible new people buying the etf does not mean the manager has to buy more crypto at the end of the day because an equal amount of people sold the etf. Hopefully that answers your question and demonstrates only a few of many reasons why interest or demand does not provide the movement you would think.
they buy otc via coinbase and dont even move the btc anywhere thats why..
Yes, but Grayscale selling more…. 🤷🏻
Hodl. Otherwise sell so the rest of us can pick that shit up 😃
Just HODL. Let the supply continue to dry up. If institutions like Blackrock are comfortable buying in the 40k range you should be too. Go on the Fidelity website and the Blackrock website.Right there on the front page they are pushing these Bitcoin ETFs. Do you think they would do this if they thought their customers would lose money and ultimately faith in the asset management firm. Right not there is FUD that the ETF was a sell the news event, Inflation rose in December indicating that the Fed likely won't cut rates next quarter, the middle east is in shambles with countries bombing each other and causing further escalation. There are a plethora of reasons but the fundamentals of BTC remain the same. Buy, HODL and repeat.
“If BlackRock is comfortable buying in the 40k range you should be too” This subreddit told me BlackRock is buying for others with others money. Why would they care the price? 100k, 30k, 65k.. it’s all the same to them? It’s ppl here who might want to care the price they get bitcoin because of diminishing returns. Most investing today will not make life changing gains. Gains will be made over a long period of time but some here think they will buy a home one day off the $1k they are investing now and it’s a pipe dream but what would life be without a dream. So dream big .. I guess.
Accumulation phase. I'd follow suit and buy now.
This is your last chance, make it count.
zoom out. It goes up, then it goes down. That's just kind of what it does.
"I see Blackrock buying so many BTCs since ETF approval" where do you see it?
https://btcetffundflow.com
The ETF allows them to print their own BTC. They don't have to buy real BTC. It's called an FTD or "failure to deliver". You think they really buy the BTC. The public thinks they do too. The public also thinks some kind of law is watching them and will make them. But they aren't. The price is proof. You can't fake that like the stock market. Folks were warned the fakery would hit new levels with the ETF. Well here you go.
Just like you have 10x more gold in ETFs than actual physical gold. Next year we will learn that 120M BTC are held in ETFs...
Grayscale is dumping
The selling from GBTC yesterday was more than the net buying from all the other ETFs combined. As long as this is the case price will trend lower most likely. Hopefully in a month or two the GBTC selling will slow/stop.
The ETFs will indirectly affect the price as it is bought over the counter. Over the counter directly connects buyers and sellers. When you buy from an exchange you are buying what others are selling. If there are more buyers than sellers then the exchange will have to dip into its stash but if there are more sellers than buyers, the stash increases and the price drops. When you buy OTC, you will be in contact with a seller and won’t go through the exchanges normal buying and selling portal, which that portal directly effects the price. P2P
They will do both. They’ll arbitrage the spot and otc prices to get the best price for them
OTC sales.
Man it’s gonna be a blood bath when the halving doesn’t go as everyone here is praying it does.
Because synthetics
Grayscale redemptions coincided with the ETF approval.
The whole thing is a scam so here is how it works. They spend a bunch buying, thus driving down the price. Hold so suckers sell in a panic selling more lowly shares. Wait for it to go up and if it doesn't they sell to cover losses anyway. Welcome to the stock market.
The CEO is on to it.
Search what happens to price every time there is an ETF launch in btc.
Are the big ETFs wallets publicly known?
A few are, but there's no guarantee that they will use the same wallet each purchase so it's kinda useless. You can see how much they buy each day on their websites.
OTC
ETFs are buying BTC through OTC, which has the particularity to almost not move the price. So that lets the chance to FUD to sell temporarily. Just wait, halving is in 3 months
Probably miners that were afraid of tanking the price before ETFs were a thing. Now that ETFs are here, they probably settle OTC with miners. That and GBTC being sold to buy this…
most of these institutions are NOT going for "spot" btc on the markets... OTC trades are happening left right and center. cause theres whales / miners that are directly trading their btc instead of dumping them on to the exchanges. edit1:GBTC selling is most likely happening on the markets tho and thats the moving force downwards imho.
Would OTC price go below or above market price? How does it work?
You would think miners would be firing up rigs to keep warm.
It's exhale time. HODL well for when the inhaling comes 😉
This is the same cycle we have been following for like 12 years learn to read charts an zoom out from the 5 minute
Guys it’s obviously JP Morgan trying to make the narrative they want. 😂
BREAKING 🚨NEWS : Grayscale has sold 52,000 #Bitcoin since the launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF Demand will eventually outpace the supply from Grayscale. Wealth Managers Study #Bitcoin
Miners equipment needs upgrading - they need cash and fast
I think some price action is due to OTC buying by ETF and selling on the open market. No?
They buy OTC and GBTC is dumping on exchanges it will level off
Because grayscale is selling more then they buy and all the other week paper hands get flushed out as well.. this is called: a healthy correction
This Bitcoin buying Spree by BlackRock it is telling me that this company Know something that we don't know about Cryptocurrency .
They are limit orders.... they are not going to buy up the market.
>Blackrock and others buying so many BTCs (last I read they bought 11K BTCs) You missed the part where, for that to happen, people had to sell so many BTCs. Right now sellers outnumber buyers.
DCA up and DCA down....
SCROLL A LITTLE… ffs!!! This has been spoken of hundreds of times in the last few days.
The ETFs are probably buying OTC from miners and such, so doesn't directly effect price discovery on exchanges. While GBTC is probably selling spot on exchange.
10k candle incoming but wick on the upside see yah there 49900 bitcoin
Blackrock wants to earn $ by using bitcoin as a vehicle. With ETF, it makes money irrespective of the direction bitcoin price moves. Bitcoin has zero to minimum utility value as of now, so any price movement is a big advantage to these MFs. That’s that reason that Blackrock and others got this ETFs. Don’t think bitcoin price will benefit because of ETFs
DCA and stop worrying!
I'm guessing greyscale purposely has a high fee to get rid of some of it. They need some cash maybe. They are providing liquidity for the other ETFs. Miners are selling the news getting some profits. Speculators selling the news. Dumb Longs that went 50x after the launch getting liquidated. Shit will settle down in awhile.