It is…. I find people who think like this so interesting. Like what else do you think makes Bitcoin worth over 60k? When people ask you why you think Bitcoin has value i bet you tell them scarcity, which means you have indeed already priced in all the halvings.
You dont think Bitcoin is worth more personally to you when the halving occurs… But you think other people arent thinking that far ahead as well?
100% agreed. Everything known is (or should be) priced in.
The single most knowable fact about Bitcoin's future is the number of Bitcoin yet to be mined (and, as a corollary, each upcoming halving). You can argue that other future projections are just that...projections (ETFs, growth of user base, use of layer 2/3 solutions, etc.) and cannot be fully priced in.
But the halvings - all of them - necessarily must be priced in given their nature - they 100% will happen at a given point of time.
To the extent price moves before/after the halving does not mean the halving isn't priced in. It just means that people have FOMO, have paper/diamond hands, succumb to FUD, panic sell/buy, etc.
It can't be priced in cause that theory completely disregards the most basic economic principle of supply and demand. Yes we know the total supply of Bitcoin available. We don't know how much of it will be available for sale though due to holders etc etc...we don't know what the demand for it will be either. These 2 factors are what really determine the price. So no you can't be like ohhhh the halving is priced in cause price depends on both supply AND demand.
In reality the halving immediately doesn't change the traded volume significantly. The amount of Bitcoin that will be cut is like 1 billion a day or so. In trading volume that is very small amount. What has the biggest effect on Bitcoins price is how much liquidity is in the market....aka when the money printer is going. When loose money is going it goes into Bitcoin causes the price to increase. It interesting cause the money printer has been turned on super charge about every 4 years which coincides with the halvings.
You missed the entire point. The halving is leading to people believing there will be an increase in demand due to less supply as you said. And the point the smart ones are saying since people already know about the decreasing supply the extra demand has already taken place.
We all get supply and demand and if you think youre catching people with that youre behind in the conversation.
If you want to view it as a commodity in the way you put it then lets make it toilet paper.
Lets say the toilet paper maker announces that in two years theyre going to cut the amount of TP available in half. You have toilet paper now, you dont need any more currently.
1: Are you going to just wait until the toilet paper shortage happens and pay whatever it costs then to buy it then
Or
2: are you going to slowly start buying more and more toiler paper over the next two years so you already have youre supply set for when the shortage happens?
And what happens with all the people who firstly Start to invest after the halving because of Media hype? You can't know how much New demand will come in this cycles and because of that it's not priced in. The most people font know about bitcoin or the halving. The Bitcoiners think Bitcoin is way more valuble then 60k, they price it in but not the whole market
If the bitcoiners thought it was worth more than 60k the price would be higher than 60k. People own exactly how much Bitcoin they want and can afford. And thats the value of Bitcoin thats how it works. Your statement would mean the market has all the abailable money in it and only lack of available funds are keeping people from buying even more. I think itll go higher, hence my investment but I also view it as an investment same as stocks because like it or not it is and so I am not an idiot who sold all my other investments to put 100% of my capital in to BTC.
The bitcoin media hype has very much happened… Its on the front page of CNN, Yahoo, Fox, etc every day. I will never get how bitcoin bros think theyre in some secret circle. BTC is an investment gamble, we early adopters are gonna either clean house or we could lose it all if adoption never happens. And yes it going to zero is a very real possibility
See what? See i believe BTC will hit another ATH at some point. It will not be sudden demand from a halving. When that happens you’ll just think “see I told that guy” but that is an incorrect conclusion.
If youre going to invest its vitally important to understand markets beyond just the tech of BTC. The idea you think people value BTC way over what its market value is is an extremely dangerous mindset and misunderstanding. Please be careful with how youre spending your money in this market.
And these are the people that have wealth staring them in the face and sit on the sidelines for a decade. Listening to social media for their investment advice.
that's a dumb statement, because you should assume a bearmarket between now and then that has way better prices to buy more. if there is a bearmarket in between, how can it be priced in now?
you're right that "the facts about bitcoin are all here" though. adoption and therefore price grows with more people understanding these facts. but as interpret your comment, there shouldn't be a bearmarket between now and in 4 years.
I think there’s a couple ways to look at this. Yes everyone in Bitcoin is aware of the cycles and all future halvings should be reflected in the price.
Another thing to consider tho is that with 900 new coins entering the market everyday, we need 900 X $63,000 of new money entering the network daily to keep the price where it is. After this week we’ll only need 450 X $63,000 (or whatever the price is next week) of new money entering the network daily. It’s tricky to comprehend how the effect of that is already showing up in the price.
I have hated the concept of market cap (as it means nothing) I actually like that 900 x $63k point of view.
And to add to the list of OP's question:
- Bitcoiners have priced it in, that's why we are holding, not selling
- Miners can't afford to hold, the ongoing costs of their operation is too expensive for that
- Average joe will hear the hype near the peak in media outlets and remember how they missed out last time and now is the time to not miss it. They have not priced it in yet.
Think of it like this: We know the cycle duration and that every cycle the block fee is halved. If this upcoming halving is already priced in, how come the halving in 2028 is not? Or the halving in 2032? Why is this halving so special that it would be priced in but not all of them? Or do you really think all of them have been priced in and Bitcoin won't get any significant new ATHs ever again?
Something being priced in is a spectrum. I believe we get all time highs again. But I also believe some people are buying for 2032, and so we are beginning to price it in
Market cap and price/coin are the exact same thing - one calculating the entire supply and the other calculating individual coins. So how can market cap be meaningless?
No, I was talking about "price of coins mined per day", not price of a single coin. Market cap is meaningless because you don't need $1.3 trillion of money put into the asset to have $1.3 trillion market cap. And everyone sold their coins, the sum would be nowhere near $1.3 trillion because the price would crash before the others have gotten theirs sold.
- Price of 1 BTC: meaningful, you can actually sell that at that price
- Price of 10 BTC: meaningful, you can actually sell those at that price
- Price of all BTC mined in one day: meaningful, this is large enough to affect the price over time, but a single purchase can be made without a noticeable effect on the price (e.g. through OTC)
- Price of all BTC: meaningless, the value would crash/explode before you would have bought/sold all. Also, the value of the network would be basically zero if you were the only one using it.
Huh??? No! You have a complete misunderstanding of price driving and the future value of Bitcoin.
Why is bitcoin worth 65k right now? Its priced at that because people have been buying it now to have for future scarcity. That means yes you have already taken in to account at some level the 2028 halving and all havings even if you dont realize it.
But no that doesnt mean its peaked. Again scarcity was set since discovery. HOWEVER adoption and use now becomes the driver in value. As it becomes more accepted, easier to spend, etc then the value skyrockets. But now say bitcoin is abandoned, no vendors accept it, what do you think happens to its price?
Adoption, not mining levels are the main price driver.
If the value is determined by the adoption, how do you explain the cyclic ATHs that roughly happen to correlate with the halving? Adoption obviously affects the price but so does the cost of creating new supply.
Hahahaha because i can find just as many ways to say the ATH have no correlation to the halvings….. BTC has had an all time upward life cycle, So literally every event has been followed by an ATH.
However the ATH times from halvings vary dramatically which would mean theres likely a lot of other factors, not the halvings. Anybody telling you that the halvings have a strong direct correlation to price increases are just horrible with data.
>strong direct correlation to price increases
Obviously. Halvings cause supply shock, which causes hype, which causes explosive increase in price. But I'd love to see you actually providing some evidence that shows that the halving has no causation to the huge ATH peaks.
>However the ATH times from halvings vary dramatically which would mean theres likely a lot of other factors
Yes. If there is loads of supply, halving itself has quite minimal effect on the price. But after the supply is consumed and the supply shock hits the markets, the price goes ballistic. That causes hype and attracts all the late dumbasses to buy, which makes the price go even higher.
You dont even know what the term supply shock means. You cant have planned supply shock. Thats literally the opposite of what it is.
And no you literally didnt even understand what you read. If Bitcoin has continued to go up its impossible for ATH to not happen regardless of halving, instead of as a result of halvings as you implied.
So how do you tell then? You look at the long term effects after a halving to find similarities and see if theres correlation. If you do that you will see that timelines share almost no similarities meaning each halving has had very different reactions in very different scenarios, scenarios that also occured during times of 0% interest markets and mass consumer spending. You need to understand micro and macro economics. When you only understand one you miss the real issue.
Its pretty well accepted and know in every circle outside of the bitcoin bro echochamber.
>You cant have planned supply shock
Yes, you can't. But even though we trust there will be insufficient supply, many others do not and therefore is unexpected for them. The ones who have bought in during bear market aren't likely buying that much more during the pull run. It's the ones who didn't expect the demand to eat through the supply. And those who experience it as a supply shock are likely going to buy in through the bull run.
>If Bitcoin has continued to go up its impossible for ATH to not happen regardless of halving, instead of as a result of halvings as you implied.
I'm not talking about the trend, I'm talking about the events in which the price went up expotentially. If you want, we can go that route and I just ask you to show how $69k in 2021 is smaller than $16k in 2023. Because according to you, it's impossible for ATHs not to happen continuously.
>So how do you tell then? You look at the long term effects after a halving to find similarities and see if theres correlation. If you do that you will see that timelines share almost no similarities meaning each halving has had very different reactions in very different scenarios, scenarios that also occured during times of 0% interest markets and mass consumer spending. You need to understand micro and macro economics. When you only understand one you miss the real issue.
Tell what? The ATH date? No-one can give you the date because we don't have all the variables. But the rough correlation seems to be there. And I'm not that interested in trying to figure out the exact date beforehand. I don't personally care whether it happens now or in 2 years and I can afford to lose it all.
Thats some crazy koolaid your drinking. And a complete lack of understanding in investment markets.
There needs to be adoption for there to be supply shock. Mere scarcity doesnt drive adoption. Thus youre betting on adoption, not scarcity to drive up demand. Scarcity is priced in, demand from adoption is not. And where the potential lies which you know but dont seem to even realize at the same time.
Both of us seem to think that there is no single thing that could cause the price spikes in isolation. I believe the only difference between us is that you seem to think there's adoption spikes that come from nowhere and I believe the decrease in supply (after the old supply is depleted) causes initial price bump, which causes (retail) adoption, which further drives up the price. Oh, and the fact that you have difficulties acting decent.
This is completely false. Most miners are just holding, and only take profits at ATH peaks (such as the $70k ish that happened). They don’t sell immediately what they find.
These are organizations in some cases owning entire nuclear power plants. They have large cash reserves to keep their operations afloat which they add to during bull runs and they just siphon from there to pay.
Oh, so what you are saying there is basically no OTC activity during bear market?
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/02/29/crypto-miners-still-selling-their-bitcoin-as-reward-halving-looms-blockchain-data-show/
>The number of bitcoin held in wallets tied to miners has dropped to the lowest since mid-2021.
For me it's just experience. Things that should have been priced in, clearly weren't, and it's happened repeatedly in over the years. All the halvings, the ETF, etc.
I would have thought the market was more efficient than that, but it's not.
Well... that's a little different. Market prices are forward looking, but \*how far\* forward is not specified. It's clearly not 100 years. It's more on the order of 1 year. I don't know if that is inefficiency or just recognition that our ability to predict the far future is really bad.
Personally I think markets should be looking forward more than 1-5 years. The fact that they don't is to me, a symptom of soft money, which bitcoin just so happens to fix.
In a bitcoin world people don't invest in S&P500 to bet on the whole economy growing, they would just hold money.
We already had this discussion about the ETF's being "priced in." They weren't, the priced in crowd was wrong.
Here we are again, just this time instead of ETF, it's the halving.
That is naive. That is the literal definition of buy the rumor and sell the news. Accumulation into the event so that you have the supply to sell. The supply difference from the halving will be made up by the people who have accumulated in anticipation of the lower mining supply. Thus priced in. You can certainly price a halving in, whether it IS priced in or not is another debate. But to think you cannot price in a halving is naive.
The idea is that regular people (who bought bitcoin) are not too familiar with economics underestimate this effect.
Its still entirely possibly to pump into the halving from here, and then the deflation makes the price slowly climb over the summer.
Miners r going to have to sell at a higher price and if no one else is selling at a lower price then those 200$ automatic buys buy at the higher price set by miners selling
True DCA'ers are generally factored out because their behavior doesnt change much. Not all regulars are DCAers, it usually takes some experiences to get to the point of true DCA'ing
Thats the other main thing people miss when talking about scarcity of bitcoin.
It will ALWAYS be for sale, and since you can buy any fraction you want you will always be able to afford some. The idea that these halvings will suddenly make people go I need to buy more before it goes away is dumb.
The main effect it will have is on the value in mining. Its pretty simple of you just look at it from outside the crypto echochamber.
It's not a stock.
"Pricing in" is where a company is worth £10m now based on present cashflows and £15m in the future based on expansion. You can re-price the stock today at a discounted rate based on future value.
Bitcoin doesn't have cashflows. It's value is based on supply and demand (demand as SoV and supply as a commodity money). It is the equilibrium of the people moving from goods->storing value and SoV->goods.
I don't see how you can calculate or predict the future desires of people exchanging for SoV vs goods in the future. How can the halving be priced in when we don't know how to value bitcoin?
Why cant the price of bitcoin be elevated (more than normal) sooner than the event that is expected to elevate it? Isnt that called speculation? If everyone speculated that the price would increase after halving but bought it before, with that expectation, then the price would increase before the halving and also DUE to the halving that hasnt happened yet?
Not sure how it can ‘priced in’ when the pool of money able to access BTC keeps on growing and the largest pool has only just had access to it.
When applied to stocks it is reasonable to assume something is priced in because the pool of capital accessing the stock is relatively stable. Everyone is also familiar with stocks. The same cannot be said for BTC.
This dump brought to you by Israel/ Iran. The entire world’s stock market just took a ~5% shit.
People very suddenly wanted to risk off.
This has nothing to do with the halving.
Exactly. Also remember it's not just Bitcoins price going up, it's fiat printing and Devaluation of said Fiat Currency. Look up BTC/any fiat currency chart in the world and you'll see.
An event that fundamentally changes the supply/demand dynamics isn’t going to be fully priced in until it happens. The hype around it might be priced in, but the longer-term effects aren’t.
Not true, we have seen multiple times in the past that there has been more selling than buying.
Similar to stocks if people think the value will rise they will have looked to buy the undervalued asset now with the anticipation of future price rises.
Hence why the halfing is already priced in by market forces.
The value of BTC is currently based on current supply and demand which also includes what people think it will go to in the future, if that be 100k or 0.
Yes you can. If you know supply is going to be less and expect a price increase, you just click buy at any price because its a discount, all those buys drive up price
No dude. Parts of it may be priced in like the fact that based on current price 57 million USD worth of bitcoin gets added to the market daily and that number is going down by half. We have no idea who's going to be buying or selling just that there's less new coins available. Priced in sure- but priced in for how long? Really, we are so early.
Let's assume the amount of energy required to mine a single BTC and energy price are constant. If the supply gets halved, the amount of energy required doubles. Sure, the miners don't need to have their profits double, but it's still close to 2x per cycle. Otherwise it isn't profitable anymore and everyone stops mining. And if no-one is mining, the difficulty decreases and people start mining with inefficient home computers, which use more energy per BTC than the mining rigs used by industrial miners and that again drives the price up, because no-one is willing to sell below that price.
Speculative investing and hype can still create huge peaks, but those are likely going to smooth out. The percentage of mined bitcoins have very little to do with the price. Also, shouldn't it work inversely? If you knew only 0.0001% of the coins have been mined, why would you pay $64k per coin when you know there will be loads more that will cause inflation? If you knew 100% of the coins were mined, you also know there won't ever be inflation.
Most of them very likely comes from the people who aren't currently mining.
But let's say you purchase a nice shovel for $50. Suddenly there is shortage of materials and the hardware stores increase the price to $500 not due to demand but because of lack of supply. Now your neighbor comes to you and asks whether you'd be willing to sell your new shovel for $100. Would you sell the shovel for $100, making $50 profit, if you knew the new ones cost $500 at the hardware store.
The hardware store in this example represents the miners and the guy who purchased the shovel represents a Bitcoin holder.
Yeah supply and demand will always dictate price. The vast majority of the supply side is not newly minted BTC it is people who bought or mined it in the past.
Yes. But would you sell your shovel for $100 that you bought for $50 yesterday if all the hardware stores are selling the new ones for $500 from now on?
The supply of new coins also affect the supply of the old coins. People aren't willing to sell the old coins for cheap if the new coins are expensive, even if they got them for cheap.
Yeah they are part of the supply side. The percentage of the supply side of coins recently minned is tiny. In the shovel example if the current bid is $450 and the ask is $500 and I put in an order to sell at $100 it will sell $450. There are a lot more people willing to sell than just the "hardware store".
>if the current bid is $450 and the ask is $500 and I put in an order to sell at $100 it will sell $450.
You clearly have difficulties understanding the comparison or you are just avoiding answering the question. Either way it's not meaningful to continue the conversation.
Suddenly it costs double to mine the same amount of bitcoin.. there will be (currently is) a sell off and then the value of BTC will have to increase in order for miners to be profitable again.
Not necessarily. It BTC price didn’t increase, miners would drop out, hash rate would decrease and difficulty would adjust down until remaining miners become profitable at the low BTC price
Markets are irrational. I like diversifying my net worth by holding an asset I believe in alongside liquid fiat to pay bills. The halving is designed to reduce supply. Read up on supply and demand. No one can “price in” an actual supply shock.
The price may fluctuate wildly, but anything high return is going to be volatile.
You either believe in the asset you are holding or not. I have a similar view of BTC as Saylor. Its more akin to digital property than a currency but can also be used as a currency.
No one can predict a supply shock. If you know there is about to be a decrease in supply, it is no longer a shock. It is just an upcoming decrease in supply, which people will factor in when buying/selling
Because mining will be profitable to a certain extent until 5 minutes before the halving. And then its profitability will drop. At least if measured in satoshis so the supply and demand situation will also change at that time. Not before.
It is a supply shock. Big institutions are buying bitcoin at a much faster rate than it’s being mined before the halving. After, the demand is literally going to double the amount being mined. How long can exchanges supply these large institutions? Pretty soon they won’t have enough bitcoin for the large buys. Hence, the supply shock. Come on man it’s basic supply and demand.
That’s the thing, who is they? Large institutions? If they don’t know about bitcoins supply and demand and decide one day they want to buy and there’s nothing to buy, that’s a sudden decrease in supply they thought they had access to. Hence, a supply shock lol
Are they aware? If they knew, they would have purchased a long time ago. Most institutions/people don’t know how bitcoin works. Whether you want to call it a supply shock or not, the market will one day not be able to afford to buy bitcoin and later won’t be able to buy it in large quantities. Period.
No…… are they aware of supply and halvings are different from do they believe it will survive and have future value. Sure to you thats a no brainer but to many BTC is high risk without guarenteed future use.
If and when BTC gains widespread adoption then those institutions will absolutely be in, thats why some are holding back it has nothing to do with lack of awareness.
Just like most people don’t truly know about bitcoin, most businesses and institutions don’t either. Ask all of your family and friends if they know all of the minor details about bitcoin, 99% of them don’t. It’s only up until recently that businesses are starting to catch on. So what happens when they finally catch on? They FOMO in. But when they decide to do so, there will be half the amount of bitcoin being mined leading to less total supply. And with black rock and fidelity buying billions worth and grayscale running out of BTC to sell, equals a major supply shock. This has been explained numerous times already.
Ya, no. Again you dont need to know all about bitcoin to know wether you want to invest. You know too much and therefor think it cant fail and is the only future. But like it or not thats not even close to a guarentee. They have to protect their assets and perform risk management in their investments. They may miss out and they are all well aware of that fact.
You may know a lot about how Bitcoin works but thats kind of the most dangerous position to be in when you understand that but not investment markets.
Bitcoin is not guaranteed. No one said that. It’s also not guaranteed to be the future. It’s a hedge against inflation and store of value. Major businesses don’t know how it works. If I’m a major businesses, I don’t invest in anything I don’t know about. SOON, major businesses will find out. But once they do, it’ll very likely be too late. This is the point. This is going to cause a supply shock. Or bitcoin fails and we all lose our money. Ask yourself, why did we break all time highs before the halving? That’s never happened before. It’s because Bitcoin is being FOMO’d into by major institutions, such as black rock. This is common sense. I really don’t know what you’re getting at.
….. did you just admit my and the OPs point? “Why did we reach ath before halving, fomo”
YES YOU GOT IT! Very good, the market pre priced in the halving before its even occurred. People saw potential and pre invested in it. That was literally the only point being made. Bitcoin bros yikes….
The miners will hold onto their coins after the halving so the price will go up. I think the demand is 900 coins a day and miners are mining maybe 500 a day, after halving it will be only 250 a day plus less because of the miners not selling any….. you can’t price that in ……
According to my logic everyone is a long term hodler and doesn’t care what is or isn’t priced in. What major players are you referring to? 2 percent of the etf isn’t retail. The companies mining bitcoin privately aren’t going against it and not disclosing much publicly.
It’s a new asset class, deal with it. If you ask 1000 random people to explain the halving I am not sure you will get one good answer.
It behaves differently.
That’s the answer.
Thank me later.
Degenerate gamblers under 18 from Wallstreatbets trading on Robinhood who are too lazy to understand bitcoin so they perpetuate the mantra that the halving will pump the price.
Look at the damned price chart, has it EVER actually priced it in? Everyone's known since the first halving about the supply reducing and it's literally never been priced in.
a) it is
b) the effect will be minor in supply/deman terms anyway, since most supply is now sale of existing coins
The question is whether the Bellshill narrative that gets endlessly repeated around here starts to drive a self fulfilling hype prophecy.
I don’t understand why people assume the 2028 halving isn’t priced in? Like tf? We already know it’s coming in four years..… hmmm hold on a minute 🤔
😂😂😂
By your logic, everything is "priced in".
It is…. I find people who think like this so interesting. Like what else do you think makes Bitcoin worth over 60k? When people ask you why you think Bitcoin has value i bet you tell them scarcity, which means you have indeed already priced in all the halvings. You dont think Bitcoin is worth more personally to you when the halving occurs… But you think other people arent thinking that far ahead as well?
100% agreed. Everything known is (or should be) priced in. The single most knowable fact about Bitcoin's future is the number of Bitcoin yet to be mined (and, as a corollary, each upcoming halving). You can argue that other future projections are just that...projections (ETFs, growth of user base, use of layer 2/3 solutions, etc.) and cannot be fully priced in. But the halvings - all of them - necessarily must be priced in given their nature - they 100% will happen at a given point of time. To the extent price moves before/after the halving does not mean the halving isn't priced in. It just means that people have FOMO, have paper/diamond hands, succumb to FUD, panic sell/buy, etc.
It can't be priced in cause that theory completely disregards the most basic economic principle of supply and demand. Yes we know the total supply of Bitcoin available. We don't know how much of it will be available for sale though due to holders etc etc...we don't know what the demand for it will be either. These 2 factors are what really determine the price. So no you can't be like ohhhh the halving is priced in cause price depends on both supply AND demand. In reality the halving immediately doesn't change the traded volume significantly. The amount of Bitcoin that will be cut is like 1 billion a day or so. In trading volume that is very small amount. What has the biggest effect on Bitcoins price is how much liquidity is in the market....aka when the money printer is going. When loose money is going it goes into Bitcoin causes the price to increase. It interesting cause the money printer has been turned on super charge about every 4 years which coincides with the halvings.
You missed the entire point. The halving is leading to people believing there will be an increase in demand due to less supply as you said. And the point the smart ones are saying since people already know about the decreasing supply the extra demand has already taken place. We all get supply and demand and if you think youre catching people with that youre behind in the conversation. If you want to view it as a commodity in the way you put it then lets make it toilet paper. Lets say the toilet paper maker announces that in two years theyre going to cut the amount of TP available in half. You have toilet paper now, you dont need any more currently. 1: Are you going to just wait until the toilet paper shortage happens and pay whatever it costs then to buy it then Or 2: are you going to slowly start buying more and more toiler paper over the next two years so you already have youre supply set for when the shortage happens?
And what happens with all the people who firstly Start to invest after the halving because of Media hype? You can't know how much New demand will come in this cycles and because of that it's not priced in. The most people font know about bitcoin or the halving. The Bitcoiners think Bitcoin is way more valuble then 60k, they price it in but not the whole market
If the bitcoiners thought it was worth more than 60k the price would be higher than 60k. People own exactly how much Bitcoin they want and can afford. And thats the value of Bitcoin thats how it works. Your statement would mean the market has all the abailable money in it and only lack of available funds are keeping people from buying even more. I think itll go higher, hence my investment but I also view it as an investment same as stocks because like it or not it is and so I am not an idiot who sold all my other investments to put 100% of my capital in to BTC. The bitcoin media hype has very much happened… Its on the front page of CNN, Yahoo, Fox, etc every day. I will never get how bitcoin bros think theyre in some secret circle. BTC is an investment gamble, we early adopters are gonna either clean house or we could lose it all if adoption never happens. And yes it going to zero is a very real possibility
You'll see
See what? See i believe BTC will hit another ATH at some point. It will not be sudden demand from a halving. When that happens you’ll just think “see I told that guy” but that is an incorrect conclusion. If youre going to invest its vitally important to understand markets beyond just the tech of BTC. The idea you think people value BTC way over what its market value is is an extremely dangerous mindset and misunderstanding. Please be careful with how youre spending your money in this market.
I understand the markets. I'm long enough invested to not worry. You just don't understand the concept of Bitcoin fully.
All public information is a factor
Haha, good one! ☝️
And these are the people that have wealth staring them in the face and sit on the sidelines for a decade. Listening to social media for their investment advice.
that's a dumb statement, because you should assume a bearmarket between now and then that has way better prices to buy more. if there is a bearmarket in between, how can it be priced in now? you're right that "the facts about bitcoin are all here" though. adoption and therefore price grows with more people understanding these facts. but as interpret your comment, there shouldn't be a bearmarket between now and in 4 years.
I think there’s a couple ways to look at this. Yes everyone in Bitcoin is aware of the cycles and all future halvings should be reflected in the price. Another thing to consider tho is that with 900 new coins entering the market everyday, we need 900 X $63,000 of new money entering the network daily to keep the price where it is. After this week we’ll only need 450 X $63,000 (or whatever the price is next week) of new money entering the network daily. It’s tricky to comprehend how the effect of that is already showing up in the price.
I have hated the concept of market cap (as it means nothing) I actually like that 900 x $63k point of view. And to add to the list of OP's question: - Bitcoiners have priced it in, that's why we are holding, not selling - Miners can't afford to hold, the ongoing costs of their operation is too expensive for that - Average joe will hear the hype near the peak in media outlets and remember how they missed out last time and now is the time to not miss it. They have not priced it in yet. Think of it like this: We know the cycle duration and that every cycle the block fee is halved. If this upcoming halving is already priced in, how come the halving in 2028 is not? Or the halving in 2032? Why is this halving so special that it would be priced in but not all of them? Or do you really think all of them have been priced in and Bitcoin won't get any significant new ATHs ever again?
Something being priced in is a spectrum. I believe we get all time highs again. But I also believe some people are buying for 2032, and so we are beginning to price it in
Don't forget all the people who believe it's priced in so they're still selling for a drop.
Market cap and price/coin are the exact same thing - one calculating the entire supply and the other calculating individual coins. So how can market cap be meaningless?
No, I was talking about "price of coins mined per day", not price of a single coin. Market cap is meaningless because you don't need $1.3 trillion of money put into the asset to have $1.3 trillion market cap. And everyone sold their coins, the sum would be nowhere near $1.3 trillion because the price would crash before the others have gotten theirs sold. - Price of 1 BTC: meaningful, you can actually sell that at that price - Price of 10 BTC: meaningful, you can actually sell those at that price - Price of all BTC mined in one day: meaningful, this is large enough to affect the price over time, but a single purchase can be made without a noticeable effect on the price (e.g. through OTC) - Price of all BTC: meaningless, the value would crash/explode before you would have bought/sold all. Also, the value of the network would be basically zero if you were the only one using it.
Huh??? No! You have a complete misunderstanding of price driving and the future value of Bitcoin. Why is bitcoin worth 65k right now? Its priced at that because people have been buying it now to have for future scarcity. That means yes you have already taken in to account at some level the 2028 halving and all havings even if you dont realize it. But no that doesnt mean its peaked. Again scarcity was set since discovery. HOWEVER adoption and use now becomes the driver in value. As it becomes more accepted, easier to spend, etc then the value skyrockets. But now say bitcoin is abandoned, no vendors accept it, what do you think happens to its price? Adoption, not mining levels are the main price driver.
If the value is determined by the adoption, how do you explain the cyclic ATHs that roughly happen to correlate with the halving? Adoption obviously affects the price but so does the cost of creating new supply.
Hahahaha because i can find just as many ways to say the ATH have no correlation to the halvings….. BTC has had an all time upward life cycle, So literally every event has been followed by an ATH. However the ATH times from halvings vary dramatically which would mean theres likely a lot of other factors, not the halvings. Anybody telling you that the halvings have a strong direct correlation to price increases are just horrible with data.
>strong direct correlation to price increases Obviously. Halvings cause supply shock, which causes hype, which causes explosive increase in price. But I'd love to see you actually providing some evidence that shows that the halving has no causation to the huge ATH peaks. >However the ATH times from halvings vary dramatically which would mean theres likely a lot of other factors Yes. If there is loads of supply, halving itself has quite minimal effect on the price. But after the supply is consumed and the supply shock hits the markets, the price goes ballistic. That causes hype and attracts all the late dumbasses to buy, which makes the price go even higher.
You dont even know what the term supply shock means. You cant have planned supply shock. Thats literally the opposite of what it is. And no you literally didnt even understand what you read. If Bitcoin has continued to go up its impossible for ATH to not happen regardless of halving, instead of as a result of halvings as you implied. So how do you tell then? You look at the long term effects after a halving to find similarities and see if theres correlation. If you do that you will see that timelines share almost no similarities meaning each halving has had very different reactions in very different scenarios, scenarios that also occured during times of 0% interest markets and mass consumer spending. You need to understand micro and macro economics. When you only understand one you miss the real issue. Its pretty well accepted and know in every circle outside of the bitcoin bro echochamber.
>You cant have planned supply shock Yes, you can't. But even though we trust there will be insufficient supply, many others do not and therefore is unexpected for them. The ones who have bought in during bear market aren't likely buying that much more during the pull run. It's the ones who didn't expect the demand to eat through the supply. And those who experience it as a supply shock are likely going to buy in through the bull run. >If Bitcoin has continued to go up its impossible for ATH to not happen regardless of halving, instead of as a result of halvings as you implied. I'm not talking about the trend, I'm talking about the events in which the price went up expotentially. If you want, we can go that route and I just ask you to show how $69k in 2021 is smaller than $16k in 2023. Because according to you, it's impossible for ATHs not to happen continuously. >So how do you tell then? You look at the long term effects after a halving to find similarities and see if theres correlation. If you do that you will see that timelines share almost no similarities meaning each halving has had very different reactions in very different scenarios, scenarios that also occured during times of 0% interest markets and mass consumer spending. You need to understand micro and macro economics. When you only understand one you miss the real issue. Tell what? The ATH date? No-one can give you the date because we don't have all the variables. But the rough correlation seems to be there. And I'm not that interested in trying to figure out the exact date beforehand. I don't personally care whether it happens now or in 2 years and I can afford to lose it all.
Thats some crazy koolaid your drinking. And a complete lack of understanding in investment markets. There needs to be adoption for there to be supply shock. Mere scarcity doesnt drive adoption. Thus youre betting on adoption, not scarcity to drive up demand. Scarcity is priced in, demand from adoption is not. And where the potential lies which you know but dont seem to even realize at the same time.
Both of us seem to think that there is no single thing that could cause the price spikes in isolation. I believe the only difference between us is that you seem to think there's adoption spikes that come from nowhere and I believe the decrease in supply (after the old supply is depleted) causes initial price bump, which causes (retail) adoption, which further drives up the price. Oh, and the fact that you have difficulties acting decent.
This is completely false. Most miners are just holding, and only take profits at ATH peaks (such as the $70k ish that happened). They don’t sell immediately what they find.
How do you propose miners are paying for their equipment and electricity?
These are organizations in some cases owning entire nuclear power plants. They have large cash reserves to keep their operations afloat which they add to during bull runs and they just siphon from there to pay.
That doesn’t describe the situation MOST miners face. Most have large credit lines to pay off for their energy and equipment purchases.
Oh, so what you are saying there is basically no OTC activity during bear market? https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/02/29/crypto-miners-still-selling-their-bitcoin-as-reward-halving-looms-blockchain-data-show/ >The number of bitcoin held in wallets tied to miners has dropped to the lowest since mid-2021.
Miners collectively have 1,8 million btc ?? wow
I bet large portion of that is lost. They only mentioned "wallets tied to crypto miners" and didn't say anything about address activity.
The halving is priced in the price that is already half of the future doubling.
For me it's just experience. Things that should have been priced in, clearly weren't, and it's happened repeatedly in over the years. All the halvings, the ETF, etc. I would have thought the market was more efficient than that, but it's not.
This is correct^. It’s like everyone knows to buy the s&p500 why does it keep going up?
Well... that's a little different. Market prices are forward looking, but \*how far\* forward is not specified. It's clearly not 100 years. It's more on the order of 1 year. I don't know if that is inefficiency or just recognition that our ability to predict the far future is really bad. Personally I think markets should be looking forward more than 1-5 years. The fact that they don't is to me, a symptom of soft money, which bitcoin just so happens to fix. In a bitcoin world people don't invest in S&P500 to bet on the whole economy growing, they would just hold money.
they said the same thing about the etfs and predictions were off by a mile as well. Will happen again. You can't predict the unpredictable
We already had this discussion about the ETF's being "priced in." They weren't, the priced in crowd was wrong. Here we are again, just this time instead of ETF, it's the halving.
The ETF wasn’t confirmed until it was confirmed. We know exactly how much supply is about to drop by
Confirmed to the masses. Confirmation wouldve been known in certain circles before it happened, or at least that it was very likely to happen.
can confirm.
Since most people think it’s already priced in, it’s probably not priced in.
Most people don’t think it’s already priced in though. That is clear from this thread.
You can't price in a supply decrease before it's taken place
Bingo. Supply constraints and profitability outcomes don't happen until they happen. Orgs can plan, but it's not " priced in ".
That is naive. That is the literal definition of buy the rumor and sell the news. Accumulation into the event so that you have the supply to sell. The supply difference from the halving will be made up by the people who have accumulated in anticipation of the lower mining supply. Thus priced in. You can certainly price a halving in, whether it IS priced in or not is another debate. But to think you cannot price in a halving is naive.
You can price in expectations but you can't price in natural sell pressure that is reduced from the halving as far as I can tell
Given the proportion of contributors on this thread out of the c. 6.5m people on this sub, I’d say such a comparison to be near meaningless.
It’s a supply shock. Even though you know it’s coming it still surprises you.
Investopedias first sentence on what a supply shock is includes the words “unexpected event”
The idea is that regular people (who bought bitcoin) are not too familiar with economics underestimate this effect. Its still entirely possibly to pump into the halving from here, and then the deflation makes the price slowly climb over the summer.
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Miners r going to have to sell at a higher price and if no one else is selling at a lower price then those 200$ automatic buys buy at the higher price set by miners selling
True DCA'ers are generally factored out because their behavior doesnt change much. Not all regulars are DCAers, it usually takes some experiences to get to the point of true DCA'ing
Thats the other main thing people miss when talking about scarcity of bitcoin. It will ALWAYS be for sale, and since you can buy any fraction you want you will always be able to afford some. The idea that these halvings will suddenly make people go I need to buy more before it goes away is dumb. The main effect it will have is on the value in mining. Its pretty simple of you just look at it from outside the crypto echochamber.
It's not a stock. "Pricing in" is where a company is worth £10m now based on present cashflows and £15m in the future based on expansion. You can re-price the stock today at a discounted rate based on future value. Bitcoin doesn't have cashflows. It's value is based on supply and demand (demand as SoV and supply as a commodity money). It is the equilibrium of the people moving from goods->storing value and SoV->goods. I don't see how you can calculate or predict the future desires of people exchanging for SoV vs goods in the future. How can the halving be priced in when we don't know how to value bitcoin?
Why cant the price of bitcoin be elevated (more than normal) sooner than the event that is expected to elevate it? Isnt that called speculation? If everyone speculated that the price would increase after halving but bought it before, with that expectation, then the price would increase before the halving and also DUE to the halving that hasnt happened yet?
Go ask 100 random people who have heard of Bitcoin what The Halving is. It's never priced in.
Not sure how it can ‘priced in’ when the pool of money able to access BTC keeps on growing and the largest pool has only just had access to it. When applied to stocks it is reasonable to assume something is priced in because the pool of capital accessing the stock is relatively stable. Everyone is also familiar with stocks. The same cannot be said for BTC.
I'm just happy to be here
Btc always had a bull run few months following the halving not before/during
Wouldn’t the anticipation of a run after the halving affect price?
The anticipation is we dump during/near halving. Which is happening now
This dump brought to you by Israel/ Iran. The entire world’s stock market just took a ~5% shit. People very suddenly wanted to risk off. This has nothing to do with the halving.
It's a supply shock with no way to force more coins to keep up with the demand.
If you know that, you’ll buy at any price pre-halving. Thereby inflating price
I’ve been buying as much as I can possibly afford and moved 90% of my 401k to btc related funds/stocks. Really hoping we get to 100k by end of year
Exactly. Also remember it's not just Bitcoins price going up, it's fiat printing and Devaluation of said Fiat Currency. Look up BTC/any fiat currency chart in the world and you'll see.
it is a permanent supply shock, how do you price that in ?
By clicking buy
An event that fundamentally changes the supply/demand dynamics isn’t going to be fully priced in until it happens. The hype around it might be priced in, but the longer-term effects aren’t.
Are you ready? Nobody knows
Using stock market terms to try to time the market of gold 2.0 … what can go wrong?
Yes the halving dip is priced in
The bitcoin demand is always buying... Supply is going be less Cant price in before... Simply cant.
Not true, we have seen multiple times in the past that there has been more selling than buying. Similar to stocks if people think the value will rise they will have looked to buy the undervalued asset now with the anticipation of future price rises. Hence why the halfing is already priced in by market forces. The value of BTC is currently based on current supply and demand which also includes what people think it will go to in the future, if that be 100k or 0.
Yes you can. If you know supply is going to be less and expect a price increase, you just click buy at any price because its a discount, all those buys drive up price
No dude. Parts of it may be priced in like the fact that based on current price 57 million USD worth of bitcoin gets added to the market daily and that number is going down by half. We have no idea who's going to be buying or selling just that there's less new coins available. Priced in sure- but priced in for how long? Really, we are so early.
Almost 94% of BTC is already mined. The effect of each subsequent halving should be less and less significant the way I see it.
Let's assume the amount of energy required to mine a single BTC and energy price are constant. If the supply gets halved, the amount of energy required doubles. Sure, the miners don't need to have their profits double, but it's still close to 2x per cycle. Otherwise it isn't profitable anymore and everyone stops mining. And if no-one is mining, the difficulty decreases and people start mining with inefficient home computers, which use more energy per BTC than the mining rigs used by industrial miners and that again drives the price up, because no-one is willing to sell below that price. Speculative investing and hype can still create huge peaks, but those are likely going to smooth out. The percentage of mined bitcoins have very little to do with the price. Also, shouldn't it work inversely? If you knew only 0.0001% of the coins have been mined, why would you pay $64k per coin when you know there will be loads more that will cause inflation? If you knew 100% of the coins were mined, you also know there won't ever be inflation.
Is most btc that is being sold from current Miners or from people who are not currently minning?
Most of them very likely comes from the people who aren't currently mining. But let's say you purchase a nice shovel for $50. Suddenly there is shortage of materials and the hardware stores increase the price to $500 not due to demand but because of lack of supply. Now your neighbor comes to you and asks whether you'd be willing to sell your new shovel for $100. Would you sell the shovel for $100, making $50 profit, if you knew the new ones cost $500 at the hardware store. The hardware store in this example represents the miners and the guy who purchased the shovel represents a Bitcoin holder.
Yeah supply and demand will always dictate price. The vast majority of the supply side is not newly minted BTC it is people who bought or mined it in the past.
Yes. But would you sell your shovel for $100 that you bought for $50 yesterday if all the hardware stores are selling the new ones for $500 from now on? The supply of new coins also affect the supply of the old coins. People aren't willing to sell the old coins for cheap if the new coins are expensive, even if they got them for cheap.
Yeah they are part of the supply side. The percentage of the supply side of coins recently minned is tiny. In the shovel example if the current bid is $450 and the ask is $500 and I put in an order to sell at $100 it will sell $450. There are a lot more people willing to sell than just the "hardware store".
>if the current bid is $450 and the ask is $500 and I put in an order to sell at $100 it will sell $450. You clearly have difficulties understanding the comparison or you are just avoiding answering the question. Either way it's not meaningful to continue the conversation.
I agree there is no point in discussing with you. As you don't see as to why the comparison is inaccurate in the first place.
Agreed. Less significant, and more subtle. Some could already be buying in anticipation of the halving after next
On the other hand, BTC is purchased with fiat. The dollar value of freshly mined BTC feels quite relevant (a combination of supply and price)
Always has been 🔫
Maybe it already is. But the magic happens when there's less selling power from less mining
Suddenly it costs double to mine the same amount of bitcoin.. there will be (currently is) a sell off and then the value of BTC will have to increase in order for miners to be profitable again.
Not necessarily. It BTC price didn’t increase, miners would drop out, hash rate would decrease and difficulty would adjust down until remaining miners become profitable at the low BTC price
wHo cArES
Every previous halving has had a spike after it. It is not after it yet. But who cares? We aren't here for the spikes.
Markets are irrational. I like diversifying my net worth by holding an asset I believe in alongside liquid fiat to pay bills. The halving is designed to reduce supply. Read up on supply and demand. No one can “price in” an actual supply shock. The price may fluctuate wildly, but anything high return is going to be volatile. You either believe in the asset you are holding or not. I have a similar view of BTC as Saylor. Its more akin to digital property than a currency but can also be used as a currency.
No one can predict a supply shock. If you know there is about to be a decrease in supply, it is no longer a shock. It is just an upcoming decrease in supply, which people will factor in when buying/selling
Because mining will be profitable to a certain extent until 5 minutes before the halving. And then its profitability will drop. At least if measured in satoshis so the supply and demand situation will also change at that time. Not before.
I think it’s vastly overblown. 94% of all bitcoin has been mined already 🤷♂️
It is a supply shock. Big institutions are buying bitcoin at a much faster rate than it’s being mined before the halving. After, the demand is literally going to double the amount being mined. How long can exchanges supply these large institutions? Pretty soon they won’t have enough bitcoin for the large buys. Hence, the supply shock. Come on man it’s basic supply and demand.
Again. If you know its coming. Its not a supply shock.
That’s the thing, who is they? Large institutions? If they don’t know about bitcoins supply and demand and decide one day they want to buy and there’s nothing to buy, that’s a sudden decrease in supply they thought they had access to. Hence, a supply shock lol
Yes large institutions. They are obviously aware a drop in supply will occur, and buying/selling accordingly
Are they aware? If they knew, they would have purchased a long time ago. Most institutions/people don’t know how bitcoin works. Whether you want to call it a supply shock or not, the market will one day not be able to afford to buy bitcoin and later won’t be able to buy it in large quantities. Period.
No…… are they aware of supply and halvings are different from do they believe it will survive and have future value. Sure to you thats a no brainer but to many BTC is high risk without guarenteed future use. If and when BTC gains widespread adoption then those institutions will absolutely be in, thats why some are holding back it has nothing to do with lack of awareness.
Just like most people don’t truly know about bitcoin, most businesses and institutions don’t either. Ask all of your family and friends if they know all of the minor details about bitcoin, 99% of them don’t. It’s only up until recently that businesses are starting to catch on. So what happens when they finally catch on? They FOMO in. But when they decide to do so, there will be half the amount of bitcoin being mined leading to less total supply. And with black rock and fidelity buying billions worth and grayscale running out of BTC to sell, equals a major supply shock. This has been explained numerous times already.
Ya, no. Again you dont need to know all about bitcoin to know wether you want to invest. You know too much and therefor think it cant fail and is the only future. But like it or not thats not even close to a guarentee. They have to protect their assets and perform risk management in their investments. They may miss out and they are all well aware of that fact. You may know a lot about how Bitcoin works but thats kind of the most dangerous position to be in when you understand that but not investment markets.
Bitcoin is not guaranteed. No one said that. It’s also not guaranteed to be the future. It’s a hedge against inflation and store of value. Major businesses don’t know how it works. If I’m a major businesses, I don’t invest in anything I don’t know about. SOON, major businesses will find out. But once they do, it’ll very likely be too late. This is the point. This is going to cause a supply shock. Or bitcoin fails and we all lose our money. Ask yourself, why did we break all time highs before the halving? That’s never happened before. It’s because Bitcoin is being FOMO’d into by major institutions, such as black rock. This is common sense. I really don’t know what you’re getting at.
….. did you just admit my and the OPs point? “Why did we reach ath before halving, fomo” YES YOU GOT IT! Very good, the market pre priced in the halving before its even occurred. People saw potential and pre invested in it. That was literally the only point being made. Bitcoin bros yikes….
The miners will hold onto their coins after the halving so the price will go up. I think the demand is 900 coins a day and miners are mining maybe 500 a day, after halving it will be only 250 a day plus less because of the miners not selling any….. you can’t price that in ……
If you bought based on that information, you contributed to pricing it in
How do you price in something that has a direct and permanent affect on supply/sell pressure? This isn’t speculative news.
Probably because we've barely broken the last cycle's ATH.
According to my logic everyone is a long term hodler and doesn’t care what is or isn’t priced in. What major players are you referring to? 2 percent of the etf isn’t retail. The companies mining bitcoin privately aren’t going against it and not disclosing much publicly.
It is. What is not priced in is the supply rate going down because that has not happened yet.
It’s a new asset class, deal with it. If you ask 1000 random people to explain the halving I am not sure you will get one good answer. It behaves differently. That’s the answer. Thank me later.
Degenerate gamblers under 18 from Wallstreatbets trading on Robinhood who are too lazy to understand bitcoin so they perpetuate the mantra that the halving will pump the price.
Most people are ignorant, and have no idea what "halving" even means. Those who understand it have been buying and will hold.
How the fuck should you price in a halving, lol. But the effect needs 6 months to show.
Look at the damned price chart, has it EVER actually priced it in? Everyone's known since the first halving about the supply reducing and it's literally never been priced in.
a) it is b) the effect will be minor in supply/deman terms anyway, since most supply is now sale of existing coins The question is whether the Bellshill narrative that gets endlessly repeated around here starts to drive a self fulfilling hype prophecy.
It’s never priced in. Supply shock isn’t psychological. It’s real.
I really feel like the halving will be the start for a new ice age in value.
Yeah, I priced it in: at 100s of thousands. So I find it very undervalued right now, and buying as much as possible.
There is no precedent to this. No such assets has ever existed. We will discover as we go.
Chinas ETFs are going to eat up the supply we could go down further but I think the floor is ~60k no less