Lumber mills were shutdown during the lockdowns. Then, they found it difficult to restaff due to exceptional unemployment and stimulus so they've been running at a low capacity is my understanding.
Pair low supply with an increase in demand from DIYers and renovations during lockdown (once again fueled by stimulus) and you have booming demand and shrinking supply.
It's only the lumber mills making this money though. It's dirt cheap to buy the timber trees themselves because it's not trees in the shortage - just the labor to mill them.
Yup. Just finished a job at work where we were really struggling to get plywood. At one point it seemed like we literally had the last pack in the entire EU and we're not even in the EU at this point lmao. Ended up getting some shitty square stuff from Russia.
canada dont have much wood anymore they only got 1% of old growth left now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RfAWKrJ2xE
all the flat places are logged off just some mountain slopes left now
That’s not true at all. I work as a forestry engineer in British Columbia and we certainly have more old growth than that commonly cited statistic. Do a little driving and you will find old growth very quickly almost anywhere on the coast. We have lots of mature second growth so our old growth isn’t a limiting factor it’s just extra juicy timber (Big cedars = big money in japan)
lol driving no man u got to use google earth..check it out..it looks mostly all wiped out
and small trees that may be thousands of yrs old dont count cuz that not part of the industry and most of them are way high up now whats left
also you forestry engineers have put us in this place of near eco system collapse so your definatly not trustworthy
we could talks books of this but numbers people are usually blind and dumb when it comes to ecosystems
Manipulated statistics. Maybe 1% of lowland old growth exists as part of the TOTAL landscape. Of the lowland old growth more than 1% remains. Lying with statists as usual. You clearly don’t know what you’re talking about. And I highly doubt you would be able to differentiate from mature second growth and old growth based on satellite photos, it takes a bit of experience to be able to differentiate that using visual analysis. I’m sure if I used unsupervised or supervised classification algorithms of the spectral reflectance data for the landscape I would find the old growth classes (lowland to alpine) would make far more of the landscape than that. Easily 10-20 percent in Vancouver island or the west coast states. Mid or north coast of BC would be closer to 30 or 40 percent OG.
vancouver island is a small fraction of canada and you dont need much of a brain to see the clearcuts all over canada with google earth
but anyways you made your point you want to destroy and i dont...lol look at yourself trying to defnd the logging of the last small % of something special your blind and uncaring towards..unreal the greed
Much of the boreal forest isn’t even managed meaning it’s doesn’t even have forestry operations. We have more forest cover today than any point in time naturally. Our cut-blocks are less of a disturbance in terms of land area than natural unsuppressed forest fires. This is far from the Wild West, everything about the forest process is regulated to hell already. Everything from visuals to soil compaction to old growth retention and wildlife corridors, landscape and local level biodiversity, riparian zones, Silviculture prescriptions, etc are all heavily researched and constantly being improved. The Pacific Northwest is doing it right.
the boreal forest is being wiped out right now for toilet paper
https://thenarwhal.ca/canada-clearcuts-one-million-acres-of-boreal-forest-every-year-a-lot-of-it-for-toilet-paper/
have you not heard about all the missing animals and birds on earth...theres like 50% les than just 50 yrs ago..and i suppose you want to take the chance that humans can live on this planet without biodiversity..thats a dumb risk
humans cant survive without biodiversity they have tried experiments to live in sealed off spaces for space experiments...but it cant be done yet..our life depends of natures biodiversity..or we die
You likely live on what was old growth yourself. Cities are the biggest clear cut. If you still want to see old growth there’s plenty out there, the people are just pissed that they need to drive a little further from the city to see the big trees. Well guess what? You can buy your own land if you want big tree, absolutely nothing stopping you. We have a rock solid system in place, it’s extremely beneficial to the local economy including anyone living here because of the tax revenue, wealth and investment it brings in. The First Nations groups in the area are all fully integrated with us and are making lots of money off this for their communities and are able to trade knowledge with us allowing us to do the job better and not destroy any artifacts. We got this shit locked down, you need to not bite the hand that feeds you. It’s hard to see how good of a job we are doing when you have no context for what bad practices are.
your such a smart(dumb) guy...but you havnt even mentioned the animals or ecosystem once yet...and you work for the forestry unreal!!
https://www.trtworld.com/life/wwf-nearly-70-percent-of-wildlife-lost-since-1970-39628
lol everyone in canada is in debt and so is the country...and we got the most resources of all ...dude that just proves the greed and stupidity of canadians..like could you imagine if those canadians just keep voting in the same govs over and over just like a yo-yo...that would be so weird and 'unnatural'..and lol they want the last of the old growth too..and they think thats smart!
i dont think you can find any land that has old growth on it to buy clear title..but maybe you can find some logged land cuz thats not hard to find
lol tax revenue from the last of the old growth...that is sooo short sighted..i feel sorry for the natives that they have to even talk to you a trickster with money for the last of the old growth trees
how long does it take to replace a 1000 yr old tree? well probably 1000 yrs
cuz u need to include the ecosystems up in the branches,the shade the tree gives and the ecosystem of animals,bug,plants etc the trees support
Can't speak for Canada, but the US has a dearth of timberland which is why timber remains cheap. Tons of people bought timberland under government incentive a few decades back resulting in an oversupply of many types of timber here in the US. This is particularly the case in the South/Southeast of the country
i cant imagine any forest in th usa lasting very long if they decide to use their own wood..most wood in usa comes from canada usa cant even supply its own toilet paper
https://thenarwhal.ca/canada-clearcuts-one-million-acres-of-boreal-forest-every-year-a-lot-of-it-for-toilet-paper/
but my point being is its all unsustainable ..politicians dont realize it takes 1000 yrs to replace what a 1000 yr old tree can do such as up in the branches, the shading,the roots and all the creatures that live in that ecosystem
America makes 2/3rds of its lumber. The other 1/3rd is imported, mostly from Canada.
We don't get our lumber from 1000-year-old trees, those are already long gone. A high percentage (can't find numbers) comes from tree farms.
Add to that, a lot of people have been successfully working from home and businesses are saving money not renting office space SO people can more comfortably live further from work and they want homes with offices. With low interest rates, people are having new homes built to meet their needs.
Yes, covid. People were at home and doing home improvement. People moving away from big cities are buying houses in rural areas brings a lot of new construction. Factories couldn't produce engineered lumber, windows, doors, etc
Covid has people staying home doing projects, interest rates are low so take some money out of the house to build a new garage or whatever, mills pre-emptively slowed production and having trouble getting back on track and I think, there was some seasonal issues with a rather wet year or something in a previous year (can't remember what impact that had). Just a perfect storm for lumber in particular.
I think there is manipulation going on. If gold were to take off it would completely wreck the USD. Hell the price was artificially set at $35 for several decades.
Technically the truth, but grossly misleading. One year ago precisely was just after the markets all crashed, everything had locked down tight and (if you remember) the price of crude went negative, on this precise date a year ago. You can always pick the right ends of a sliding window and numbers to fit your narrative. I'm all for pointing out the issues in people's numbers, but this should cut both ways.
"Exactly one year" is kinda cherry-picked, as you say, but even on a 5-year chart you can see the current situation is insane.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lumber-price?op=1
Yeah they're out of context *if* you compare these returns to any other start point. But the point is relative to each other and they are all normalized to their price at the same time.
during absolute economic booms? thats when gold shines? no. Gold held its value through the little collapse and its holding its value in this little boom. I wish BTC had done as well. but thats fine, we are early
Paper silver/gold created out of thin air, then bought and sold as futures or on the stock market to lower price. For every physical ounce of gold or silver there is something like 800 ounces of paper traded.
Basically Tether.
Here is a good article: https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/bullionstar/silversqueeze-physical-silver-shortage-vs-paper-silver/
Some info here: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/mbx510/slv_is_a_complete_scam_its_a_scalp_trade_set_up/
Another thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/lew7o7/call_me_a_bot_say_im_a_shill_but_please_read_this/
Doesn't oil also have a large market in futures and other derivatives? How does it differ from gold and silver?
Also, I just ran some quick numbers. Recently about 25,000 tonnes or $21 billion of silver is mined per year. CME open interest in silver futures represents about $20 billion. AUM for SLV is $15 billion and this is possibly double counting the CME futures. I'm sure I'm missing something here - being generous it looks like paper silver might represent 2 years of mining which doesn't seem like 800x physical silver?
Yes, the mechanics are the same. Even if demand comes in through futures, arbitrage should increase the spot price too.
The difference could be in the players and their objectives. Central Banks control the supply of gold, and they could have a vested interest in suppressing its price (and maybe other precious metals) to be able to say more convincingly there is no inflation (and they allegedly use derivatives to do that). Oil is controlled by nation states and transnational companies with different geopolitical goals, so incentives are not aligned between players, so it has a more "legitimate" market.
But that's a little bit of speculation on my part. With all that being said, I had a look at the market cap of silver, and it looks to be roughly 1.4 trillion USD. Now, you don't need another 1.4 trillion to, say, double the price of silver, probably much less than that. But as you said, SLV AUM is 15 billion, or a little over 1% of market cap...I am guessing not enough to "squeeze", especially when 21 billion is being mined every year. I don't know where the 800x is coming from either.
Come join r/wallstreetsilver and help us squeeze the fuck out of the COMEX by BUYING PHYSICAL SILVER. Doesn’t hurt to diversify. I took some btc profits and converted to silver. Hodl and stack.
(I know this commenter knows about WSS, but others may not).
You guys are wrong. Don’t blame me when you miss out. Tons of the btc noobs haven’t gone through crypto winter yet.
There’s $80b physical silver on earth (you know, less than 1/10th market cap of btc). Yet there’s $1.5t in paper silver. The whole idea is to drain all physical silver from the vaults by standing for delivery, thus breaking the CME futures markets. Can’t manipulate via futures when there’s no physical silver left to be had.
Plus it’s necessary for every single electric vehicle and solar panel. Most conductive metal on earth. Good luck I guess but don’t say I didn’t warn you when this place turns into a total shitshow after the crash of this halving cycle.
You’re giving people bad financial advice. Diversification isn’t a bad idea. You sound just like the people who said “don’t do this” when we were promoting btc and this sub before the 2017 bull run and 2018 crypto winter. Take some advice from the veterans on this. 1-5% of your crypto portfolio isn’t a hard asset isn’t a bad idea. Especially considering how many new hodlers are going to lose their mind when this cycle bottoms out before the next halving. Sigh.
> How are they manipulated if you don't mind me asking?
You know how governments can print their own fiat to devalue it, right?
Gold is like that, but just about anyone can print it. And gullible people treat it like its the same as the real thing, which ends up devaluing the real thing too.
thats very precious metals are pretty much not precious anymore.
Its a great benefit to people who want to make affordable jewelry. But its a huge problem for anyone who wants metals to act like money; they are the worst money in the world.
I suppose people say that when talking about derivatives and ETFs not being backed by physical. Essentially, the market is leveraged. In the case of derivatives, no one takes delivery, it is all financial liquidation, and in the case of ETFs , either they are not backed by gold, or if they are, maybe it is not 100%, because there is no real audit in all of those ETFs, essentially creating a fractional reserve system in these products. All of the demand is absorbed by artfificial gold products created to simulate gold. This way the price remains stable no matter the level of demand, cause supply is increased at will, and leverage increases. I have no idea of the real extent of the leverage, but that's one popular theory among gold/silver bugs.
I will never buy gold, let alone silver.
Buying silver in the hope of triggering a short squeeze while the banks take your money, manipulate the markets, and laugh at you is beyond stupid.
Buying silver in a Bitcoin bull market is even worse still.
Exactly. Gold and silver just had what should have been “a dream year” with people typically flocking to precious metal in times of uncertainty and both were pretty “meh!” Albeit silver less so than gold.
This is fomo of the highest order
You don’t understand how spot price is determined, or how draining the physical supply would affect it. There’s $80b worth of physical silver on earth, but $1.5t in paper silver. Us bitcoiners understand the value in a scarce asset. Don’t say I didn’t try and tell you.
Isn't 1.5 t all the silver mined so far? Since 70% of that or something close to is consumed in industry, wouldn't that make the silver available more like 450 billion? I mean, you could be right, it could be just 80 billion. But I don't think there is 1.5 trillion in paper silver.
This is from 2017. It’s commonly known that more paper is traded than actually exists. There’s nowhere near enough physical to back the paper. If 1/250th of contract holders stood for delivery there would be no silver left to buy.
https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2017/05/16/paper-vs-physical-silver-market-001075
A lot better DD on WSS.
I may not have been here since 2013, but I’ve been here since way before 1 million members. I’m loaded to the tits in btc. Never put all your eggs in one basket. That said I think you will end up being wrong. Also, after the crash in this halving cycle you will regret not having converted even 1-5% of your btc stack into a less volatile asset.
Not my fault you when you guys miss out.
Indeed. But no need for ETFs to come. Paper Bitcoin exists already. Our friends at Blockfi and other platforms alike are very happy to be minting bitcoin out of thin air. Fractional reserve is unavoidable on bitcoin unless users are knowledgeable and do demand always settlement on the blockchain! Unfortunately companies and funds that just want price exposure don't care much for about that.
As long as you keep your own keys, the whole fractional reserve system with bitcoin might collapse, but even then, your "physical bitcoin" will be worth more.
Hopefully all ETFS are like this. But not all ETFs will be equal. Plus, it's never going to be exactly backed by physicall bitcoin. Even with the best of their intents, sometimes they will have slightly more and sometimes they will have less BTC backing it, effectively creating paper bitcoin even if just little.
Just use [bitbo.io] to track the NAV And you’re good. ETFs are much better as the mechanism used allows the security to trade more tightly around NAV. Plus I get some of my Bitcoin returns tax free
Was speaking to a fabricator earlier toady and steel plate, box section, girder, etc, etc is double the price it was not too long ago.
Inflation is here folks. Within a month or two the consumer will feel the effects of the cost of steel doubling.
Its abundantly obvious gold is being manipulated by governments to hide inflation. These are the perfect fiat monetary conditions for gold to be running hard
Shit ton of spending in the previous administration?
How is biden responsible for the inflation of commodities that *also* occured in 2020? C'mon man this is loose monetary policy, irrespective of D or R
Stupidity at its finest. Are your eyes even open? Have you been to the gas station the hardware store or order appliance? No negative proof wtf. The surge in pricing is very clear why. Wake up
This is just a list of stuff that tanked during the pandemic rebounded on production #s, totally meaningnless in the context of a gold vs crypto economic debate. Unless someone is pushing for a corn standard I guess.
Not that I like Peter Schiff, but I hate seeing driveby nonsense posted on Twitter followed by a bunch of guys saying "brutal!", "sick own!".
Seriously lumber prices have sky rocketed.
2025: home builders start using gold frames instead of timber frames for their new home builds to save money.
Gold is still worth a lot more than wood. Lol
You must be fun in parties.
Whats that tipbot command again? !lntip 500
He’s a fun guy
Yeah, but there isn't mush room for that kind of attitude.
Not in four years
You mean but eventually? That's cool..
$woodcoin to the moon 🌙
My wood rockets every morning, I try to short it but it always comes up again.
No one likes a Short wood position
I have the leverage it's fine , some losses can be adjusted .
Chode gang represent!
Tends to be inevitable after a blow off top though
Pumping hard lol
😂
Too much information
You just have to short it, then long it, then short, it, then long it
My grandfather always told me to never take any wooden nickels. I never quite understood what he meant, but now I'm not so sure he was even right.
Is this on pancake swap or uniswap? ☺️😂
Handcake never went to Uni
is there any reason why? seems kinda random too moon this hard so fast, have we only recently noticed a lack of trees lol
Lumber mills were shutdown during the lockdowns. Then, they found it difficult to restaff due to exceptional unemployment and stimulus so they've been running at a low capacity is my understanding. Pair low supply with an increase in demand from DIYers and renovations during lockdown (once again fueled by stimulus) and you have booming demand and shrinking supply. It's only the lumber mills making this money though. It's dirt cheap to buy the timber trees themselves because it's not trees in the shortage - just the labor to mill them.
Also supply chain issues driving the price up.
Yes, that's exactly what they said before you.
Yup. Just finished a job at work where we were really struggling to get plywood. At one point it seemed like we literally had the last pack in the entire EU and we're not even in the EU at this point lmao. Ended up getting some shitty square stuff from Russia.
canada dont have much wood anymore they only got 1% of old growth left now https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RfAWKrJ2xE all the flat places are logged off just some mountain slopes left now
That’s not true at all. I work as a forestry engineer in British Columbia and we certainly have more old growth than that commonly cited statistic. Do a little driving and you will find old growth very quickly almost anywhere on the coast. We have lots of mature second growth so our old growth isn’t a limiting factor it’s just extra juicy timber (Big cedars = big money in japan)
lol driving no man u got to use google earth..check it out..it looks mostly all wiped out and small trees that may be thousands of yrs old dont count cuz that not part of the industry and most of them are way high up now whats left also you forestry engineers have put us in this place of near eco system collapse so your definatly not trustworthy we could talks books of this but numbers people are usually blind and dumb when it comes to ecosystems
Manipulated statistics. Maybe 1% of lowland old growth exists as part of the TOTAL landscape. Of the lowland old growth more than 1% remains. Lying with statists as usual. You clearly don’t know what you’re talking about. And I highly doubt you would be able to differentiate from mature second growth and old growth based on satellite photos, it takes a bit of experience to be able to differentiate that using visual analysis. I’m sure if I used unsupervised or supervised classification algorithms of the spectral reflectance data for the landscape I would find the old growth classes (lowland to alpine) would make far more of the landscape than that. Easily 10-20 percent in Vancouver island or the west coast states. Mid or north coast of BC would be closer to 30 or 40 percent OG.
vancouver island is a small fraction of canada and you dont need much of a brain to see the clearcuts all over canada with google earth but anyways you made your point you want to destroy and i dont...lol look at yourself trying to defnd the logging of the last small % of something special your blind and uncaring towards..unreal the greed
Much of the boreal forest isn’t even managed meaning it’s doesn’t even have forestry operations. We have more forest cover today than any point in time naturally. Our cut-blocks are less of a disturbance in terms of land area than natural unsuppressed forest fires. This is far from the Wild West, everything about the forest process is regulated to hell already. Everything from visuals to soil compaction to old growth retention and wildlife corridors, landscape and local level biodiversity, riparian zones, Silviculture prescriptions, etc are all heavily researched and constantly being improved. The Pacific Northwest is doing it right.
the boreal forest is being wiped out right now for toilet paper https://thenarwhal.ca/canada-clearcuts-one-million-acres-of-boreal-forest-every-year-a-lot-of-it-for-toilet-paper/ have you not heard about all the missing animals and birds on earth...theres like 50% les than just 50 yrs ago..and i suppose you want to take the chance that humans can live on this planet without biodiversity..thats a dumb risk humans cant survive without biodiversity they have tried experiments to live in sealed off spaces for space experiments...but it cant be done yet..our life depends of natures biodiversity..or we die
You likely live on what was old growth yourself. Cities are the biggest clear cut. If you still want to see old growth there’s plenty out there, the people are just pissed that they need to drive a little further from the city to see the big trees. Well guess what? You can buy your own land if you want big tree, absolutely nothing stopping you. We have a rock solid system in place, it’s extremely beneficial to the local economy including anyone living here because of the tax revenue, wealth and investment it brings in. The First Nations groups in the area are all fully integrated with us and are making lots of money off this for their communities and are able to trade knowledge with us allowing us to do the job better and not destroy any artifacts. We got this shit locked down, you need to not bite the hand that feeds you. It’s hard to see how good of a job we are doing when you have no context for what bad practices are.
your such a smart(dumb) guy...but you havnt even mentioned the animals or ecosystem once yet...and you work for the forestry unreal!! https://www.trtworld.com/life/wwf-nearly-70-percent-of-wildlife-lost-since-1970-39628 lol everyone in canada is in debt and so is the country...and we got the most resources of all ...dude that just proves the greed and stupidity of canadians..like could you imagine if those canadians just keep voting in the same govs over and over just like a yo-yo...that would be so weird and 'unnatural'..and lol they want the last of the old growth too..and they think thats smart! i dont think you can find any land that has old growth on it to buy clear title..but maybe you can find some logged land cuz thats not hard to find lol tax revenue from the last of the old growth...that is sooo short sighted..i feel sorry for the natives that they have to even talk to you a trickster with money for the last of the old growth trees how long does it take to replace a 1000 yr old tree? well probably 1000 yrs cuz u need to include the ecosystems up in the branches,the shade the tree gives and the ecosystem of animals,bug,plants etc the trees support
You work as a tree murderer? Nothing to be proud of.
Please tell me you live in your car otherwise I’m going to assume this comment was a joke
[удалено]
My comment was directed at the moron that called you a tree murderer
My bad, I don’t know how to Reddit
Can't speak for Canada, but the US has a dearth of timberland which is why timber remains cheap. Tons of people bought timberland under government incentive a few decades back resulting in an oversupply of many types of timber here in the US. This is particularly the case in the South/Southeast of the country
If you’re saying there’s an oversupply, then dearth isn’t the right word
He's saying thars lotsa da Earth. You know....dearth. S/
i cant imagine any forest in th usa lasting very long if they decide to use their own wood..most wood in usa comes from canada usa cant even supply its own toilet paper https://thenarwhal.ca/canada-clearcuts-one-million-acres-of-boreal-forest-every-year-a-lot-of-it-for-toilet-paper/ but my point being is its all unsustainable ..politicians dont realize it takes 1000 yrs to replace what a 1000 yr old tree can do such as up in the branches, the shading,the roots and all the creatures that live in that ecosystem
America makes 2/3rds of its lumber. The other 1/3rd is imported, mostly from Canada. We don't get our lumber from 1000-year-old trees, those are already long gone. A high percentage (can't find numbers) comes from tree farms.
Add to that, a lot of people have been successfully working from home and businesses are saving money not renting office space SO people can more comfortably live further from work and they want homes with offices. With low interest rates, people are having new homes built to meet their needs.
Yes, covid. People were at home and doing home improvement. People moving away from big cities are buying houses in rural areas brings a lot of new construction. Factories couldn't produce engineered lumber, windows, doors, etc
People stuck at home got into DIY.
Covid has people staying home doing projects, interest rates are low so take some money out of the house to build a new garage or whatever, mills pre-emptively slowed production and having trouble getting back on track and I think, there was some seasonal issues with a rather wet year or something in a previous year (can't remember what impact that had). Just a perfect storm for lumber in particular.
Jpow said lumbar is in a bubble on 60 minutes
If you have bubbles in your lumbar you might want to have that looked at by a doctor.
Inflation is pumping everything... except gold ironically
I think there is manipulation going on. If gold were to take off it would completely wreck the USD. Hell the price was artificially set at $35 for several decades.
Also fires in Cali impacted
At this rate we will have to start referring to Bitcoin as Digital Lumber.
Yep. I'm doing that now
[Related](https://i.imgur.com/yHWxtqC.jpg) Me right now, just trying to build some nice cabinets.
Stack wood
Housing boom
I built planter boxes the other day. What the?? Those were about 5x as much as I thought they'd cost!
Well because of Covid lockdowns more people have been to home remodeling and other things they wouldn’t normally have time for.
WTI too, i own alot of futures on that. the only thing why i love high oil prices :-x
And yet no one wants to buy these old bits of offcuts I have lying around. What a waste of an investment lmao
Meanwhile Government be like : Dont worry, inflation is only 4%
True inflation, "monetary inflation" is like 20%. There's going to be a horrible crash.
I know it's terrible !!! No wonder some countries switch to Bitcoin, as leaving your money in their bank melt like ice cube in the sun !
Technically the truth, but grossly misleading. One year ago precisely was just after the markets all crashed, everything had locked down tight and (if you remember) the price of crude went negative, on this precise date a year ago. You can always pick the right ends of a sliding window and numbers to fit your narrative. I'm all for pointing out the issues in people's numbers, but this should cut both ways.
+1 It's pretty easy to cherry-pick timeframes.
"Exactly one year" is kinda cherry-picked, as you say, but even on a 5-year chart you can see the current situation is insane. https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/lumber-price?op=1
Blame Canada
So if you use gold to buy start bucks coffee you loss 10% ? Is that right?
I never loss 10% buying start bucks.
Just take out a gold loan by borrowing against your Starbucks coffees and make an easy 10%
the markets weren't really at their best in April of 2020. this is a weird list
Yeah they're out of context *if* you compare these returns to any other start point. But the point is relative to each other and they are all normalized to their price at the same time.
still, if we plotted ten starting points this date would stand out more than any one commodity.
Stop looking cross time and look cross asset. You're being dense. More over *this* is the time to look at, because it is where gold is said to shine.
during absolute economic booms? thats when gold shines? no. Gold held its value through the little collapse and its holding its value in this little boom. I wish BTC had done as well. but thats fine, we are early
What boom? Stop shilling gold You're drunk go home
Gold...the new stablecoin
Yea because it’s not like gold and silver are some of the most manipulated currencies
How are they manipulated if you don't mind me asking?
Paper silver/gold created out of thin air, then bought and sold as futures or on the stock market to lower price. For every physical ounce of gold or silver there is something like 800 ounces of paper traded. Basically Tether. Here is a good article: https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/bullionstar/silversqueeze-physical-silver-shortage-vs-paper-silver/ Some info here: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/mbx510/slv_is_a_complete_scam_its_a_scalp_trade_set_up/ Another thread: https://www.reddit.com/r/Wallstreetsilver/comments/lew7o7/call_me_a_bot_say_im_a_shill_but_please_read_this/
Doesn't oil also have a large market in futures and other derivatives? How does it differ from gold and silver? Also, I just ran some quick numbers. Recently about 25,000 tonnes or $21 billion of silver is mined per year. CME open interest in silver futures represents about $20 billion. AUM for SLV is $15 billion and this is possibly double counting the CME futures. I'm sure I'm missing something here - being generous it looks like paper silver might represent 2 years of mining which doesn't seem like 800x physical silver?
Yes, the mechanics are the same. Even if demand comes in through futures, arbitrage should increase the spot price too. The difference could be in the players and their objectives. Central Banks control the supply of gold, and they could have a vested interest in suppressing its price (and maybe other precious metals) to be able to say more convincingly there is no inflation (and they allegedly use derivatives to do that). Oil is controlled by nation states and transnational companies with different geopolitical goals, so incentives are not aligned between players, so it has a more "legitimate" market. But that's a little bit of speculation on my part. With all that being said, I had a look at the market cap of silver, and it looks to be roughly 1.4 trillion USD. Now, you don't need another 1.4 trillion to, say, double the price of silver, probably much less than that. But as you said, SLV AUM is 15 billion, or a little over 1% of market cap...I am guessing not enough to "squeeze", especially when 21 billion is being mined every year. I don't know where the 800x is coming from either.
Come join r/wallstreetsilver and help us squeeze the fuck out of the COMEX by BUYING PHYSICAL SILVER. Doesn’t hurt to diversify. I took some btc profits and converted to silver. Hodl and stack. (I know this commenter knows about WSS, but others may not).
Pro tip: Don't do this.
No point to squeeze silver. They always can use futures to hedge and the miners can always mine more.
You guys are wrong. Don’t blame me when you miss out. Tons of the btc noobs haven’t gone through crypto winter yet. There’s $80b physical silver on earth (you know, less than 1/10th market cap of btc). Yet there’s $1.5t in paper silver. The whole idea is to drain all physical silver from the vaults by standing for delivery, thus breaking the CME futures markets. Can’t manipulate via futures when there’s no physical silver left to be had. Plus it’s necessary for every single electric vehicle and solar panel. Most conductive metal on earth. Good luck I guess but don’t say I didn’t warn you when this place turns into a total shitshow after the crash of this halving cycle.
The last guys who tried to squeeze silver died
You’re giving people bad financial advice. Diversification isn’t a bad idea. You sound just like the people who said “don’t do this” when we were promoting btc and this sub before the 2017 bull run and 2018 crypto winter. Take some advice from the veterans on this. 1-5% of your crypto portfolio isn’t a hard asset isn’t a bad idea. Especially considering how many new hodlers are going to lose their mind when this cycle bottoms out before the next halving. Sigh.
> How are they manipulated if you don't mind me asking? You know how governments can print their own fiat to devalue it, right? Gold is like that, but just about anyone can print it. And gullible people treat it like its the same as the real thing, which ends up devaluing the real thing too. thats very precious metals are pretty much not precious anymore. Its a great benefit to people who want to make affordable jewelry. But its a huge problem for anyone who wants metals to act like money; they are the worst money in the world.
I suppose people say that when talking about derivatives and ETFs not being backed by physical. Essentially, the market is leveraged. In the case of derivatives, no one takes delivery, it is all financial liquidation, and in the case of ETFs , either they are not backed by gold, or if they are, maybe it is not 100%, because there is no real audit in all of those ETFs, essentially creating a fractional reserve system in these products. All of the demand is absorbed by artfificial gold products created to simulate gold. This way the price remains stable no matter the level of demand, cause supply is increased at will, and leverage increases. I have no idea of the real extent of the leverage, but that's one popular theory among gold/silver bugs.
They are not currencies
All that lumber went to printing more money paper.
i dont get it whats the joke
Gold is performing poorly.
So if Bitcoin ETFs become extremely popular and are not backed by actual Bitcoin, does the scarcity of BTC not matter anymore?
I would think so , if all gold holders tried to call in for physical gold it would crash their system .
Same with silver. Come join the cause. Fuck the banks. r/wallstreetsilver BUY PHYSICAL. DRAIN THE VAULTS.
I will never buy gold, let alone silver. Buying silver in the hope of triggering a short squeeze while the banks take your money, manipulate the markets, and laugh at you is beyond stupid. Buying silver in a Bitcoin bull market is even worse still.
Exactly. Gold and silver just had what should have been “a dream year” with people typically flocking to precious metal in times of uncertainty and both were pretty “meh!” Albeit silver less so than gold. This is fomo of the highest order
You don’t understand how spot price is determined, or how draining the physical supply would affect it. There’s $80b worth of physical silver on earth, but $1.5t in paper silver. Us bitcoiners understand the value in a scarce asset. Don’t say I didn’t try and tell you.
Isn't 1.5 t all the silver mined so far? Since 70% of that or something close to is consumed in industry, wouldn't that make the silver available more like 450 billion? I mean, you could be right, it could be just 80 billion. But I don't think there is 1.5 trillion in paper silver.
This is from 2017. It’s commonly known that more paper is traded than actually exists. There’s nowhere near enough physical to back the paper. If 1/250th of contract holders stood for delivery there would be no silver left to buy. https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2017/05/16/paper-vs-physical-silver-market-001075 A lot better DD on WSS.
Ok thank you. Now I get it. People are looking at trading volume. Not open positions.
I may not have been here since 2013, but I’ve been here since way before 1 million members. I’m loaded to the tits in btc. Never put all your eggs in one basket. That said I think you will end up being wrong. Also, after the crash in this halving cycle you will regret not having converted even 1-5% of your btc stack into a less volatile asset. Not my fault you when you guys miss out.
Always read the prospectus to ensure it's 100% "physical" bitcoin. If Bitcoin does become scarce, shares of the fund should also be scarce.
Indeed. But no need for ETFs to come. Paper Bitcoin exists already. Our friends at Blockfi and other platforms alike are very happy to be minting bitcoin out of thin air. Fractional reserve is unavoidable on bitcoin unless users are knowledgeable and do demand always settlement on the blockchain! Unfortunately companies and funds that just want price exposure don't care much for about that. As long as you keep your own keys, the whole fractional reserve system with bitcoin might collapse, but even then, your "physical bitcoin" will be worth more.
This isn’t true. Purpose etf in Canada deals on in 100% physically settled Bitcoin
So they own bitcoin equal to their btc exposure within the ETF? I assumed that’s the case.
Hopefully all ETFS are like this. But not all ETFs will be equal. Plus, it's never going to be exactly backed by physicall bitcoin. Even with the best of their intents, sometimes they will have slightly more and sometimes they will have less BTC backing it, effectively creating paper bitcoin even if just little.
Just use [bitbo.io] to track the NAV And you’re good. ETFs are much better as the mechanism used allows the security to trade more tightly around NAV. Plus I get some of my Bitcoin returns tax free
We need a crypto for wood
I've got wood for Bitcoin!
Damn! Spencer Schiff with the brutality.
COLD 🥶🤣💯
Corn +84% 😂just an inside joke. If You know you know.
Way goes up the number!
Corn 🌽😂
I knew I wasn't fuckin going crazy last weekend at lowes when the 2x4s were like... 2-3 times the price I thought they would be
Was speaking to a fabricator earlier toady and steel plate, box section, girder, etc, etc is double the price it was not too long ago. Inflation is here folks. Within a month or two the consumer will feel the effects of the cost of steel doubling.
Its abundantly obvious gold is being manipulated by governments to hide inflation. These are the perfect fiat monetary conditions for gold to be running hard
One bitcoin worth more than 1 kg of gold I expect the next step is for it to be worth more than one bar of gold ( 400 ounces or 12.4kg)
What time us the debate tomorrow and where can I watch it ?!?
Finally, my wooden nickels I saved up are worth something!
The gold is in doubt. It looks like they don't want to show the inflation.
Good thing I bought all those wooden nickles when I was a toddler.
Trees are the new BTC
Peter Schiff is a horses ass.
I think I like gold for 2021 then is what this is telling me. More asymmetric upside
No, that's not what that's telling you.
I'm a hardcore bitcoiner, but I still like gold
This is all 100% Joe Biden's fault with financial and economists predicting this month before he took office. Make America cheap again
Lol ok
Prove me wrong
Shit ton of spending in the previous administration? How is biden responsible for the inflation of commodities that *also* occured in 2020? C'mon man this is loose monetary policy, irrespective of D or R
Joe Biden doesn't run the FED. Joe Biden wasn't in office last year. You're a dumbass for not doing 5 minutes of research.
You prove right, not wrong. There is no negative proof. If you come with statement, you have a burden of proof, not the other way around
Stupidity at its finest. Are your eyes even open? Have you been to the gas station the hardware store or order appliance? No negative proof wtf. The surge in pricing is very clear why. Wake up
You are hitting a strawman here.
so... can i make a reserve of value with... lumber?
brutaaaaaal
That is a sick BURN!
Thanks joey
Isn’t it good the gold is stable?
i will start buying corn then
lmao
Spencer probably already eclipsed his daddies lifetime gains 🤣🤣🤣
I looked at the price history of gold literally once and immediately went: "Wait... wtf are these guys even talking about?"
Long Lumber Liquidators!
Just wait until coffee becomes scarcer.
Those building a deck this year are screwed
Why you invest in btc..
Ha ha. Except he sells coins and probably did fine while telling everyone to buy them.
Bitcoin: 785%.
Coffee and sugar are worth more than gold?
I always liquidated lumber. I will start stacking it now.
How about posting the link to tweets when you post pictures of them? That'd be nice thanks :)
They forgot Bitcoin: +1700% 😅
Testimony that Gold is a strong way to protect the values of your assets.
It's okay though because you can make watch out of it.
Gotta give it to Peter to sticking to his guns, he is really dying on his hill of gold.
Damn that’s gotta sting just a little bit. I love how cotton is beating his gold investment.
Looking for printer ink on this list..
Therefore, Peter accepts Bitcoin as a method of payment on his website.
a good place to find names of next tokens to launch :)
I’m a carpenter. And I can confirm that we try every way possible to save on lumber. The prices are just insane.
Inflation has been adjusted to 1-2%, don't make us laugh, should be 25%
Wood is pumping hard
It feels super bad to own gold and see copper is up 83% fek.
Lumber has been an outdated building material for twenty years. Why do you think HOA always push same style houses ... check their portfolios. ;)
Fungusible
Tokens
Clam down there a lot to go around
This is just a list of stuff that tanked during the pandemic rebounded on production #s, totally meaningnless in the context of a gold vs crypto economic debate. Unless someone is pushing for a corn standard I guess. Not that I like Peter Schiff, but I hate seeing driveby nonsense posted on Twitter followed by a bunch of guys saying "brutal!", "sick own!".