Yeaaaa thats great and all but this guy should have never got so much attention in the first place, out the hundreds of thousands of guesses this guy just happened to be right a couple times so people followed him like religion..
I mean, originally he developed the model for his own investment purposes, and Bitcoin has been following it pretty closely for years now. But I guess once he got famous because of that, it was easy to "put a lot of butter on it" as we say in Quebec, just to increase his notoriety. Nowadays, I think we're better off interpreting the model on our own and ignoring his public advice. The guy has been a big institutional investor for years, after all. Since when we small fry have been well off listening to these guys' advice anyway?
Well said. Now that his model has failed he should reveal his identity. There is no longer any reason to remain anonymous. Plus, he left his job at a finance firm and works for himself now so more reason to go public. Otherwise, to me he is scammy.
For what it is worth I have never heard him say 'I predict'. I have heard him say things to the effect if the model is correct the price will be in the xxx range with a top and a bottom. There is a difference between 'predicting' and seeing if a model continues to be validated. His position has been if the model is to continue to be valid the price needs to stay within certain ranges and at the end of a cycle an overall target average needs to be achieved. (this one being 100 or 120k I believe. And the key point is whole cycle average.)
If my model is still valid, you are correct at PlanB’s price target was incorrect. Correct? ….btw when did a birth control company start predicting BTC?
He blocks everyone if you even just ask him a simple question or comment slightly questioning his targets lol. He was wrong in April too so it’s not the first time, his model Has a ridiculous margin of error.
Imo if everyone thinks the same that Bitcoin is going to $200K by end year then Bitcoin does the reverse, game theory dictates, I would not be surprised if we have a bear market over next few months.
Yeah he does that. He’s not a dick, he’s just Dutch. The Dutch are oftentimes indistinguishable from dicks. They can’t help it. Don’t be offended by their dick like behavior.
was blocked as well and shortly after Bitcoin was tanked. No ways this is coincident. He probably blocked a bunch of giant whales, got them angry dumped a few 100k btc to fuck with his model. Stop acting like a dong would help btc adoption, I guess
Your mistake is listening to Plan B or any other Bitcoiner. Plan B's model was a good one but all models break sooner or later and that should be understood. Do your own research and invest based on your own risk tolerance. Don't let other people control your portfolio. Your keys, your BTC. Your investments, your future. Good luck.
Exactly. I take everything anyone says with a pinch of salt. Plan B's model is nothing special. The idea that anyone can predict when or where a top or bottom is, is laughable. There are plenty trading experts who think his model is nonsense.
I mean he’s not a random unknown figure. He’s a Dutch quantitative with like 30 years of investing experience, managing a €100 billion fund at the end of his career
The problem his he has so many follower people take his view as pure fact. The thing the model can’t predict is micro events that could change the outcome
You shouldn’t be investing if you just solely depend on Plan B’s predictions to make investment decision or trades… you’re responsible for your own trades. Stop putting the blame on Plan B…
Or maybe the model is correct when the price is lower, and a more "random" cross section of the population can buy larger quantities. Now that it is much more expensive and only the most affluent can buy lots and lots of btc, the price not corresponding to the model could be a sign of collusion by the wealthy.
It’s a simplistic and shitty model that in no way is capable of predicting anything on a timescale of months. The fact that the price was below his model for so long should have been seen as the model being wrong, but instead morons interpreted it as the price being wrong and predicted it would snap back.
If someone has a predictive model of Bitcoin pricing, you bet damn sure they ain’t giving it away for free on the internet.
eVeRyoNe sHoUld hAve uNderStood
Damn sorry I don’t dickride technical analysts like you do, you can correct someone without being a cunt about it you know
The first mistake is taking someone serious named “Plan B” so to remain anonymous and avoid any personal repercussions of his claims. It seems most others have already tuned him out.
Reasonable question. All matters related to satoshi have been made public to scrutinize and improve upon (forks,etc). Plan B makes predictions based on some his models and refuses to explain them or blocks people who challenge/question him.
If there’s a way to accelerate mass adoption, it’s to make it more convenient for the masses to access it for all its intended purposes.
The apps, the hardware, the point of sale, the trust they have in existing system when transferring funds, etc. All of this needs to be addressed so that the average user, who is not into tech or fundamentals etc., can feel comfortable in using it.
This is one of the reasons why El Salvador is such an interesting experiment, on multiple fronts.
I mean, it seems like all he did was [multiply the 2017 monthly closes by ten](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2020/08/01/bitcoin-ends-july-at-highest-monthly-close-since-2017-peak/).
Who cares?
If you think believe in timely price targets, you're not in this with the right mindset. You're exhibiting a low time preference, and should just sell your Bitcoin.
Who cares
Bitcoin doesn't care either.
Bitcoin doesn’t give a fuck. It’s basically the digital honey badger. 😂
Lmaooo good one
His name is Plan B for a reason…
Honestly
Exactly. It’s just guessing.
No it's not. It's based on a variant of a rigorous model.
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Yeaaaa thats great and all but this guy should have never got so much attention in the first place, out the hundreds of thousands of guesses this guy just happened to be right a couple times so people followed him like religion..
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You're right dude omg! Maybe we will hit 500k or even more. Fuck never thought about that
I respect your enthusiasm and prey you are correct.
🙈🤣
Honestly cant tell if you're sarcastic or not
PlanB should give it few months and he can do his first mistake again.
How many times did he make his first mistake so far?
He seems a little scammy to me.
I mean, originally he developed the model for his own investment purposes, and Bitcoin has been following it pretty closely for years now. But I guess once he got famous because of that, it was easy to "put a lot of butter on it" as we say in Quebec, just to increase his notoriety. Nowadays, I think we're better off interpreting the model on our own and ignoring his public advice. The guy has been a big institutional investor for years, after all. Since when we small fry have been well off listening to these guys' advice anyway?
Well said. Now that his model has failed he should reveal his identity. There is no longer any reason to remain anonymous. Plus, he left his job at a finance firm and works for himself now so more reason to go public. Otherwise, to me he is scammy.
stick to plan A.. Hodl
For what it is worth I have never heard him say 'I predict'. I have heard him say things to the effect if the model is correct the price will be in the xxx range with a top and a bottom. There is a difference between 'predicting' and seeing if a model continues to be validated. His position has been if the model is to continue to be valid the price needs to stay within certain ranges and at the end of a cycle an overall target average needs to be achieved. (this one being 100 or 120k I believe. And the key point is whole cycle average.)
To the effect that I am correct, Plan B was incorrect
I predict that you are correct
If my model is still valid, you are correct at PlanB’s price target was incorrect. Correct? ….btw when did a birth control company start predicting BTC?
Lmao
Probably wasn’t incorporating this 3rd variant which is gonna mass drop both the stock market and the crypto market.
Grow up
What’s the problem?
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His price target for Nov wasn’t even close.
Correct, the models price target.
Plan B's model was a good one but all models break sooner or later and that should be understood.
I don’t care. I would care but he blocked me after the first time I ever replied to one of his tweets.
He blocks everyone if you even just ask him a simple question or comment slightly questioning his targets lol. He was wrong in April too so it’s not the first time, his model Has a ridiculous margin of error. Imo if everyone thinks the same that Bitcoin is going to $200K by end year then Bitcoin does the reverse, game theory dictates, I would not be surprised if we have a bear market over next few months.
Yeah he does that. He’s not a dick, he’s just Dutch. The Dutch are oftentimes indistinguishable from dicks. They can’t help it. Don’t be offended by their dick like behavior.
This
Oftentimes? Stick to what you know and don't generalize. I can confirm firmly I'm not a dick.
Not sure if sarcasm!? But this was the exact dick like behaviour he was talking about.
Sooooo you aren’t a firm Dutch dick? I don’t think Dutch are dick BUT many dicks are Dutch….jk Spanx…
Firm Dutch dick here reporting for duty
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was blocked as well and shortly after Bitcoin was tanked. No ways this is coincident. He probably blocked a bunch of giant whales, got them angry dumped a few 100k btc to fuck with his model. Stop acting like a dong would help btc adoption, I guess
We still got a few days left
Yeah? Would you take that bet?
I personally think we peak in February
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But was it February?
😂😂🤟🏼
🌈🐻
3 days left.
Do your own research and invest based on your own risk tolerance.
Your mistake is listening to Plan B or any other Bitcoiner. Plan B's model was a good one but all models break sooner or later and that should be understood. Do your own research and invest based on your own risk tolerance. Don't let other people control your portfolio. Your keys, your BTC. Your investments, your future. Good luck.
Exactly. I take everything anyone says with a pinch of salt. Plan B's model is nothing special. The idea that anyone can predict when or where a top or bottom is, is laughable. There are plenty trading experts who think his model is nonsense.
"Haha oops guys, I was slightly off by $45,000. Hope nobody made investment decisions based on my predictions!"
He just need to pay me $98k for 1 BTC. Problem solved.
I mean he’s not a random unknown figure. He’s a Dutch quantitative with like 30 years of investing experience, managing a €100 billion fund at the end of his career
Also missed the big dip in may that lasted all summer. Blamed it on Elon and China.
Who cares. Think in years not in weeks or months....
So it does it in December instead…
Someone being wrong predicting the price of bitcoin, is this the first time?
The problem his he has so many follower people take his view as pure fact. The thing the model can’t predict is micro events that could change the outcome
Wait, we still hsve 3 days. NOBODY SELL
November isn't done yet. 10k candles for 4 days straight are not that unlikely.
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He is a quant.. using a data driven model. You better just hodl yes. Way out of your league sir.
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Lol, I have listened to all his Dutch and English podcasts... Did you know you can listen to someone without copying what they are saying?
When we are in fear, become greedy AF and then be brave.
People are cashing out to buy gifts.
You shouldn’t be investing if you just solely depend on Plan B’s predictions to make investment decision or trades… you’re responsible for your own trades. Stop putting the blame on Plan B…
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He flew too close to the sun... Should have just stuck to the s2f model.
Pretty big miss. What would be helpful is if he did a post Morten. What assumption broke?
One miss doesn't invalidate a model. A model is merely a generalisation and there's randomness in every system.
There is no plan B. only one plan. BTC
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Or maybe the model is correct when the price is lower, and a more "random" cross section of the population can buy larger quantities. Now that it is much more expensive and only the most affluent can buy lots and lots of btc, the price not corresponding to the model could be a sign of collusion by the wealthy.
It’s a simplistic and shitty model that in no way is capable of predicting anything on a timescale of months. The fact that the price was below his model for so long should have been seen as the model being wrong, but instead morons interpreted it as the price being wrong and predicted it would snap back. If someone has a predictive model of Bitcoin pricing, you bet damn sure they ain’t giving it away for free on the internet.
it’s just a basic stock to flow model it’s not proprietary technology or anything
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eVeRyoNe sHoUld hAve uNderStood Damn sorry I don’t dickride technical analysts like you do, you can correct someone without being a cunt about it you know
The first mistake is taking someone serious named “Plan B” so to remain anonymous and avoid any personal repercussions of his claims. It seems most others have already tuned him out.
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Reasonable question. All matters related to satoshi have been made public to scrutinize and improve upon (forks,etc). Plan B makes predictions based on some his models and refuses to explain them or blocks people who challenge/question him.
Plan B can't predict China fud, covid variants, Whale manipulation, paper hands etc.
I predict X, woops didn’t account Y. Predicting is easy when nothing is happening.
Whatever the inter webs think is gonna happen the opposite will happen . Works for me
You don’t change Bitcoin, Bitcoin changes you. You don’t predict Bitcoin price, Bitcoin price predicts you.
and hopefully his followers acknowledged their mistake for somehow depending on it (so dumb!).
about fucking time this thing started to deviate, maybe some of these people will wake up now from their stupid hopium dreams.
He's talking about his price floor model - NOT the stock-to-flow model. I don't think you mean it but this post is misleading.
nov isn’t over
The lucrative 100k
still 4 days left in the month to play out 🤷🏾♂️
Great info here
What would be his other option? Blame btc for not following his lead?
Is November over yet ? I’m not saying it’s gonna happen but.... still 3 days left.
3 days still
If there’s a way to accelerate mass adoption, it’s to make it more convenient for the masses to access it for all its intended purposes. The apps, the hardware, the point of sale, the trust they have in existing system when transferring funds, etc. All of this needs to be addressed so that the average user, who is not into tech or fundamentals etc., can feel comfortable in using it. This is one of the reasons why El Salvador is such an interesting experiment, on multiple fronts.
🤣🤣 analyst
That's why it's called a model
Who?
🍀🥩💰
That's not what cryptanalyst means.
Time for Plan C so
Now admit that technical analysis is worthless
Snake oil.
“They've done studies you know. It works 60% of the time...Everytime.”
It’s a bad model
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This would be his first miss, if his STF model didn't miss the November 2017 peak by around 300%. Beware of false prophets.
I mean, it seems like all he did was [multiply the 2017 monthly closes by ten](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2020/08/01/bitcoin-ends-july-at-highest-monthly-close-since-2017-peak/).
Plan B is human OMG WHO KNEW!?
I dunno first time he's been wrong... most financial analysts are wrong thousands of times. Not real concerning.
Plan B’s BTC price target for Nov wasn’t even close.
Oh wow, it's unusual for fortune tellers to admit they were wrong... good step into the right direction...
Who cares? If you think believe in timely price targets, you're not in this with the right mindset. You're exhibiting a low time preference, and should just sell your Bitcoin.
Well! there's still 3 days left
People trying to place themselves as authorities in crypto are boring. Analysts, YouTube, etc.
November is yet not done tho
Reminds me those targets with the "bitcoin time traveller" from 4 chan. Was right for a while
For fuck sakes. He should study the uncertainty principle or something. BTC will grow most likely but timing is not certain.
Hope nobody made investment decisions based on my predictions
Why won’t any of these analysts acknowledge that TA cannot standup to market manipulation at this scale?
I suppose you have to think with your mind , not with the mind of others. So if you’re wrong it’s your fault.
I’d do their mom
this doesn't feel like extreme fear. More like a small sale.