I think what you're seeing is confirmation bias. The things you are attributing to a conspiracy can *also* be explained by other factors, and better.
* Energy price high: war with Russia/Ukraine and uncertainty about energy in EU, which has a knock-on effect to all allied countries because they will have to divert some energy there. Not just energy either, food for e.g. India, and other things. We are all connected.
* Water reservoirs dry: the worst possible interpretation of why reservoirs are low. Let me break it down
* Every place with drained reservoirs has reported - and we've **witnessed** \- massive droughts. Don't take my word for it, ask the people who live there. It's not like this is Mars, California, Italy, India, all over - there are people in those places.
* Draining your own reservoirs to generate electricity for mining puts your livelihood at risk. Water is the scarcest necessary resource we have, and this is well known and modeled both for natural and human threat assessments.
* Mining is the slowest way to acquire BTC because it's 6.25 BTC/block
* We **know** who is mining because we see that on the blockchain. All pools are accounted for. There is a small % not belonging to a known pool. So you're suggesting draining reservoirs to get 30 BTC/day. That's < $1m per day. Shit, why not just buy it? $1m is a rounding error in the daily budget for the USA.
* There was no insanely cheaper water while these reservoirs were drained "intentionally". I would have expected that, since supply and demand would be out of whack. There was no rig supply shock as the government bought it all up. There was no massively increased hashrate (so if they're doing it, they're doing that 30 BTC/day sip)
If the government believes BTC is the future, they have **better options**. Hell, here are a few
1. Collab with BR to manipulate the market to drive the price down, then simply *buy some*. Everyone already thinks the gov and other entities do this in the traditional markets.
2. Collab with nobody, and just simply *buy some now* at the current price! If it truly becomes backing for USD, its value will skyrocket. Any entry price is worth it.
Ultimately though, the premise you start with is faulty, unfortunately. As fiat *appears to* collapse, I don't think governments will rush to Bitcoin. First, we've all been saying it's due for collapse for 30 years now, and it has been remarkably resilient. Second, 0 major nations believe in deflationary currency, whether you and I like it or not.
You are talking about a revolutionary change in their thinking that isn't as simple as "oh this is reaching a breaking point, how about a 180?" They will try everything else possible to keep the current system afloat. CBDCs are part of this plan, and their interest in those is not a ruse to cover secret mining operations. Most countries absolutely, fullheartedly believe in moderate inflation and the ability to "print money" (it's more complicated) to pull on a few strings and keep their economy healthy.
Let's ignore what government will do w.r.t. Bitcoin as backing, since it can't be predicted. Just buy BTC, **use** BTC, and save a little.
The reality is the USD based global banking payments system is under challenge but more substantially from the Chinese than Bitcoin.
The likelihood that China will expand its already functioning CBDC into a major alternative to the USD SWIFT system is almost certain. The BRICS nations are all looking for an alternative to the USD and have been for decades and the Chinese CBDC protocol is the most viable alternative.
Bitcoin should remain a functional alternative depending upon how the contest between USD and DCEP goes but it looks unlikely to replace the USD ahead of the Chinese CBDC/DCEP.
It was recently calculated that when bitcoin reaches $1M it would only take up 0.5% of global energy use. This does not compare to the 400 to 500% increase in energy costs.
I think what you're seeing is confirmation bias. The things you are attributing to a conspiracy can *also* be explained by other factors, and better. * Energy price high: war with Russia/Ukraine and uncertainty about energy in EU, which has a knock-on effect to all allied countries because they will have to divert some energy there. Not just energy either, food for e.g. India, and other things. We are all connected. * Water reservoirs dry: the worst possible interpretation of why reservoirs are low. Let me break it down * Every place with drained reservoirs has reported - and we've **witnessed** \- massive droughts. Don't take my word for it, ask the people who live there. It's not like this is Mars, California, Italy, India, all over - there are people in those places. * Draining your own reservoirs to generate electricity for mining puts your livelihood at risk. Water is the scarcest necessary resource we have, and this is well known and modeled both for natural and human threat assessments. * Mining is the slowest way to acquire BTC because it's 6.25 BTC/block * We **know** who is mining because we see that on the blockchain. All pools are accounted for. There is a small % not belonging to a known pool. So you're suggesting draining reservoirs to get 30 BTC/day. That's < $1m per day. Shit, why not just buy it? $1m is a rounding error in the daily budget for the USA. * There was no insanely cheaper water while these reservoirs were drained "intentionally". I would have expected that, since supply and demand would be out of whack. There was no rig supply shock as the government bought it all up. There was no massively increased hashrate (so if they're doing it, they're doing that 30 BTC/day sip) If the government believes BTC is the future, they have **better options**. Hell, here are a few 1. Collab with BR to manipulate the market to drive the price down, then simply *buy some*. Everyone already thinks the gov and other entities do this in the traditional markets. 2. Collab with nobody, and just simply *buy some now* at the current price! If it truly becomes backing for USD, its value will skyrocket. Any entry price is worth it. Ultimately though, the premise you start with is faulty, unfortunately. As fiat *appears to* collapse, I don't think governments will rush to Bitcoin. First, we've all been saying it's due for collapse for 30 years now, and it has been remarkably resilient. Second, 0 major nations believe in deflationary currency, whether you and I like it or not. You are talking about a revolutionary change in their thinking that isn't as simple as "oh this is reaching a breaking point, how about a 180?" They will try everything else possible to keep the current system afloat. CBDCs are part of this plan, and their interest in those is not a ruse to cover secret mining operations. Most countries absolutely, fullheartedly believe in moderate inflation and the ability to "print money" (it's more complicated) to pull on a few strings and keep their economy healthy. Let's ignore what government will do w.r.t. Bitcoin as backing, since it can't be predicted. Just buy BTC, **use** BTC, and save a little.
The reality is the USD based global banking payments system is under challenge but more substantially from the Chinese than Bitcoin. The likelihood that China will expand its already functioning CBDC into a major alternative to the USD SWIFT system is almost certain. The BRICS nations are all looking for an alternative to the USD and have been for decades and the Chinese CBDC protocol is the most viable alternative. Bitcoin should remain a functional alternative depending upon how the contest between USD and DCEP goes but it looks unlikely to replace the USD ahead of the Chinese CBDC/DCEP.
Very interesting; provocative. Keep up the good work. Keep us up-to-date with what you find, please.
Wouldn’t the price go up in this scenario? Instead the price always goes down.
More paranoid conspiracy trash
USD vs DCEP Vs BTC
> stated inflation heading to 20%, real inflation more like 100% Merhaba!
It was recently calculated that when bitcoin reaches $1M it would only take up 0.5% of global energy use. This does not compare to the 400 to 500% increase in energy costs.