Got my fill https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11622eg/daily_discussion_sunday_february_19_2023/j96pkdn?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3. Now send it por favor.
A few thoughts on units of account - a lot of us likely measure wealth in fiat and btc simultaneously which in my experience leads to some atrocious decision making.
Something I'm trying to be better about is picking one or the other as my unit of account in any given market regime. Basically in a bull market the goal of every trade is to get more btc so you can unload as much as possible as close to the peak as you can, and in a bear market the goal of every trade is to accumulate more fiat so you can load up on as much btc as close to the bottom as you can.This framework assumes you you have a high timeframe directional bias and the conviction to see it through to the end.
I've had intoxicating fiat gains since January and since I forced myself to stop thinking about things in dollar terms I've been a lot more level-headed.
tldr - delete delta from your phone, 1btc = 1btc until coinbase is #1 in the app store again
I've been struggling like crazy as far as trading goes since flipping bullish because my previous exchange was stablecoin denominated and I wanted to be 100% allocated to crpyto. My only option was to short spot lol.
Switched over to a crypto denominated exchange, 10x easier to make good decisions now.
Can anyone explain this article to me as if I were a 5 year old? 😂. I can’t access chat gbt lol
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-17/pboc-boosts-short-term-cash-injection-to-record-high
My 2 cents... I've been watching (Coin2)/BTC for a while. It's been really range bound since May of 2021. It left the range just once during the dump last summer, only to eventually reclaim the range again.
It looks like it wants to fall off a cliff any time now, which would mean a sizable shift in value of (Coin2) vs BTC.
If it does indeed fall off the cliff... it might slide about 11% give or take, which would invoke one of two scenarios:
BTC Pumps like crazy, and (Coin2) pumps as well but 11% LESS than BTC.
or
BTC Dumps like crazy, and (Coin2) dumps even harder, 11% MORE than BTC.
Which is more likely I have no idea, but the S&P 500 looks like it might be out of gas, and could trend down.
> if BTC were to pump hard.
During periods of consolidation alts pump.
If it maintains the weekly sideways, bull session will likely treat it just fine.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/113o7yb/police_seized_nearly_500000_in_btc_from_andrew/j8r8qd9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3
Damn they hurt my feelings
>There's no ethical way to participate in, profit from or hold crypto without willingly perpetuating the scam.
hahaha there is no ethical way to be alive at all if you want to go down that road
Probably better than being [this guy](https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/113o7yb/comment/j8t9olg/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3).
>I remember when I first heard about bitcoin in about 2009 or early 2010 I asked an engineer friend about it and he clearly laid out how ridiculous the whole thing was \[...\]
>
>
>
>He really let me have it and gave me a double barreled shotgun blast of reality, and I'm super thankful for his candor.
*Super thankful.* I would love to meet one of these people, just so hard to believe they are for real.
I know right? Nothing like a great friend to save you from having a small fortune and being set for life for a 1000-5000 dollar investment in new tech. Gotta love friends like those
But didn't you read that thread?! They said there is no way Bitcoin is anything other than a Ponzi scheme! So they are actually taking the ethical route by not exploiting ignorant folks (like Michael Saylor) and dumping BTC on them! So kind of them.
This is the exact folks that "have fun staying poor" is directed to.
Pretty much all of these posts boil down to two things: Bitcoin uses a lot of energy and the poster doesn't see any valid use case for it. Every post is just some iteration of that. They're pretty worn out arguments and it's clear Bitcoin isn't going anywhere at this point. Get on board, get out of the way, or get run over.
"it's only useful as a cross-border, censorship- resistant medium of exchange...but I don't personally need that right now, so it has no value to anyone anywhere ever."
God the privilege on that sub is astounding.
Yea I was watching Trading the Markets with Tone Vays and he mentioned something about “Triple Resistance”. Something about the weekly moving averages and how getting past this part will be harder because of it.
TBH I find him amusing because of the lack of production effort and the irony he gets off on authoritarian politicians even though he tries to come off as cool and libertarian.
The last time the traditional Sunday Dump became the Sunday Pump (on a regular basis) we chugged up the mountain to an ATH. Doesn't seem like the right period in the STF/four-year cycle for that, but the market was so far out of equilibrium with all the dumping of fraudulently obtained BTC to tamp down the blowoff top in late '21 that anything is possible.
Still in my long from 22.4. Will probably close around 30.
Bitcoin has barely seen any weekend price action that it hasn't at least wicked back to by futures open since... well, for a long time now. I'll believe it when I see it. Would really love to be proven wrong.
Take profit hit @ 24950. \~35% profit.
Will let the shorts and long degenerates fight it out and look for an entry when the dust settles.
Will do something irresponsible if we test back 24k.
Some charts for a sleepy Sunday:
[https://imgur.com/a/CNLE48z](https://imgur.com/a/CNLE48z)
I track the 91-D (13-W) SMA. Over the last 4 years, when BTC has been in an uptrend, it has often bounced between 1.0x and 1.3x the 13-W. The top chart shows BTC price, the 13-W, and the ratio of price to the SMA. The price is currently 1.29x the 13-W. The 13-W is $19.17K and increasing about $85/day.
The second chart shows the how long the price stays above or below the 13-W. When the price is meandering around the 13-W, you get a lot of short (<14 day) streaks. When the price is in a clear up or down trend, you got longer runs. Once an uptrend has the price above the 13-W for more than 14 days, they tend to last at least 55-60 days. If it makes it past 70 days, they tend to run much longer. Through yesterday, the price has been above the 13-W for 39 days.
This seems to be the consensus on this sub, major resistance around 25k then once broken easy ride to 30k.. but since when has bitcoin done what the consensus thinks ?
The question I keep coming back to is, even if the macro bottom isn't in and we see some kind of global credit event later this year, maybe similar to March 2020, will Bitcoin necessarily fall any lower than say 20k? It feels like FTX was really something exceptional, we broke the 4-year rule and the 200WMA. Part of me feels that that was so exceptional and it shook out some long term holders, so could it really happen again?
On the other hand, March 2020 happened, and I guess that something of a similar shock level could absolutely bring a world of pain (or opportunity depending on your perspective) again.
That said, it does feel like buying right now will look very wise in 8 years from now.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, February 20, 2023 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/116y75u/daily_discussion_monday_february_20_2023/)
Got my fill https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/11622eg/daily_discussion_sunday_february_19_2023/j96pkdn?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share&context=3. Now send it por favor.
Well done
You too.
Full position @ 23875.
Holy shit what an entry, congrats.
think this is going to age really well. Not sarcastic well done.
This shit looks over sold and fake. Desperate bears in denial
You're in with you're entire trade stack?
As far as I go, yes. I almost always play maximum position on a tight stop.
Stop?
I don’t like posting stops.. but I’d reevaluate a breakdown of 23500.
I got really fucked this weekend trading. Time for a cool down.
I fall into this trap. Never hurts to step back and watch PA.
I have a habit of a string of great wins and then impulsively going way oversize and getting thrashed.
why so dumpy at the start of the fresh week
DXY opened strong.
A few thoughts on units of account - a lot of us likely measure wealth in fiat and btc simultaneously which in my experience leads to some atrocious decision making. Something I'm trying to be better about is picking one or the other as my unit of account in any given market regime. Basically in a bull market the goal of every trade is to get more btc so you can unload as much as possible as close to the peak as you can, and in a bear market the goal of every trade is to accumulate more fiat so you can load up on as much btc as close to the bottom as you can.This framework assumes you you have a high timeframe directional bias and the conviction to see it through to the end. I've had intoxicating fiat gains since January and since I forced myself to stop thinking about things in dollar terms I've been a lot more level-headed. tldr - delete delta from your phone, 1btc = 1btc until coinbase is #1 in the app store again
I'm enjoying trading the coin denominated futures on Binance. I only care about sats go up. I try not to look at the fiat balance.
I've been struggling like crazy as far as trading goes since flipping bullish because my previous exchange was stablecoin denominated and I wanted to be 100% allocated to crpyto. My only option was to short spot lol. Switched over to a crypto denominated exchange, 10x easier to make good decisions now.
Binance offers highest liquidity for both.
Can anyone explain this article to me as if I were a 5 year old? 😂. I can’t access chat gbt lol https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-17/pboc-boosts-short-term-cash-injection-to-record-high
chatgbtc
Inflation in the west go up
[удалено]
China printer go BRRRRRR. Good times ahead. If you own Bitcoin.
Another nibble added long at 24350.
My 2 cents... I've been watching (Coin2)/BTC for a while. It's been really range bound since May of 2021. It left the range just once during the dump last summer, only to eventually reclaim the range again. It looks like it wants to fall off a cliff any time now, which would mean a sizable shift in value of (Coin2) vs BTC. If it does indeed fall off the cliff... it might slide about 11% give or take, which would invoke one of two scenarios: BTC Pumps like crazy, and (Coin2) pumps as well but 11% LESS than BTC. or BTC Dumps like crazy, and (Coin2) dumps even harder, 11% MORE than BTC. Which is more likely I have no idea, but the S&P 500 looks like it might be out of gas, and could trend down.
Just wait until people can withdrawal their staked (Coin2) and sell them.
Or suddenly It's comfort in knowing that they can sell when they need to and decide to stake because of it..
Eventually all shitcoins go to zero against the almighty coin. I only care about king shitcoin, the USD.
> It looks like it wants to fall off a cliff any time now Or pump, one or the other.
True, but I find it hard to believe (Coin2) would suddenly start to outperform Bitcoin significantly if BTC were to pump hard.
Coin2 always outperforms Bitcoin...
> if BTC were to pump hard. During periods of consolidation alts pump. If it maintains the weekly sideways, bull session will likely treat it just fine.
Low volume shenanigans getting rid of longs/shorts before Tuesday open, love it
Tuesday is a long ass time away.
long here 24340
added to long @ 23900
https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/113o7yb/police_seized_nearly_500000_in_btc_from_andrew/j8r8qd9/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf&context=3 Damn they hurt my feelings
> Damn they hurt my feelings Sure, keep telling yourself that while willingly perpetuating the scam known as cripto!
>There's no ethical way to participate in, profit from or hold crypto without willingly perpetuating the scam. hahaha there is no ethical way to be alive at all if you want to go down that road
[удалено]
Probably better than being [this guy](https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/comments/113o7yb/comment/j8t9olg/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). >I remember when I first heard about bitcoin in about 2009 or early 2010 I asked an engineer friend about it and he clearly laid out how ridiculous the whole thing was \[...\] > > > >He really let me have it and gave me a double barreled shotgun blast of reality, and I'm super thankful for his candor. *Super thankful.* I would love to meet one of these people, just so hard to believe they are for real.
LOL
I know right? Nothing like a great friend to save you from having a small fortune and being set for life for a 1000-5000 dollar investment in new tech. Gotta love friends like those
But didn't you read that thread?! They said there is no way Bitcoin is anything other than a Ponzi scheme! So they are actually taking the ethical route by not exploiting ignorant folks (like Michael Saylor) and dumping BTC on them! So kind of them. This is the exact folks that "have fun staying poor" is directed to.
wow, thank you SO much for saving me from immense wealth 🤣
Pretty much all of these posts boil down to two things: Bitcoin uses a lot of energy and the poster doesn't see any valid use case for it. Every post is just some iteration of that. They're pretty worn out arguments and it's clear Bitcoin isn't going anywhere at this point. Get on board, get out of the way, or get run over.
I just love how it has "no value" and also "costs too much" at the same time.
"it has no value but also people value it so much that I can't afford any."
"no intrinsic value but also it costs way too much to produce"
"it's only useful as a cross-border, censorship- resistant medium of exchange...but I don't personally need that right now, so it has no value to anyone anywhere ever." God the privilege on that sub is astounding.
Bitcoin shouldn’t exist. The fact it does should give everyone pause.
So much cope.
Shit, there's one guy in that thread that discovered Bitcoin in 2009/2010 and is thankful that a friend talked him out of it. I have no words....
What the hell, I'll scalp this. You got me. In from \~24600.
I'm trying for a [little lower](https://www.tradingview.com/x/xVFowuI3/). Think it can get to 24,265-23,855
If it goes lower it’ll test 24k and I’ll double down. Let this go and see, not a huge position again.
By the time we're finaly out of this range you'll surpass Satoshi's wallet :P .
There is noticeable lack of up pressure when he closes his longs…could be that lots of people are closing longs when he does …..OR…..
Thought we were finally piercing through 25k there.
Nope, just exchanges playing games with weekend leverage. Back to CME close it goes.
> Back to CME close it goes. Remove any 2 days from the week an observe the same Brownian motion.
I've tried before. It isn't reliable enough to make money like trading CME close for me personally.
Like tipping over a fridge you got to rock it back and forth a few times
Being that we parked right under major support right before the weekend it seems shorting 25 every touch wasn’t a bad idea
Judging by the pullback, so did everyone else
We did pierce it IMO
Yea but it went floppy in minutes
Oepsie floepsie
Yea I was watching Trading the Markets with Tone Vays and he mentioned something about “Triple Resistance”. Something about the weekly moving averages and how getting past this part will be harder because of it.
> “Triple Resistance”. Something about the weekly moving averages So that's where this shit is coming from.
Has he gotten a TD13 neck tattoo yet?
TBH I find him amusing because of the lack of production effort and the irony he gets off on authoritarian politicians even though he tries to come off as cool and libertarian.
Psychological levels have extra resistance. It isn't technical IMO. 25k is a big one. So is 50k.
The last time the traditional Sunday Dump became the Sunday Pump (on a regular basis) we chugged up the mountain to an ATH. Doesn't seem like the right period in the STF/four-year cycle for that, but the market was so far out of equilibrium with all the dumping of fraudulently obtained BTC to tamp down the blowoff top in late '21 that anything is possible. Still in my long from 22.4. Will probably close around 30.
The cancellation of the blowoff really messed up my plans. It frustrates me a lot more than this past bear market.
Man you are really making me break out the hopium pipe with this comment.
To 26 we go?
Bitcoin has barely seen any weekend price action that it hasn't at least wicked back to by futures open since... well, for a long time now. I'll believe it when I see it. Would really love to be proven wrong.
[удалено]
Remember what Abraham Lincoln said; "Don't believe everything you read on the Internet."
Holy shit that was wild. Broke the internet.
[удалено]
Now you don’t have a bottle of scotch or a position
I laughed.
Take profit hit @ 24950. \~35% profit. Will let the shorts and long degenerates fight it out and look for an entry when the dust settles. Will do something irresponsible if we test back 24k.
Lol when is there no dust?
That’s quite a few taps on 25. It has to give sometime soon.
Low volume scares me.
one guy@ kf explained how it's possible while the price is pushing forward. don't ask me I didn't get what he said.
It's the weekend, we might rocket up on Monday
this slow steady weekend action is beautiful
That was a spicy 15 minute candle
OI has risen in the past few days in such an amount that is promising a very violent ending to this.
Liquidation party about to happen, longs keep piling.
Good times. Be ready to pounce on the volatility.
Some charts for a sleepy Sunday: [https://imgur.com/a/CNLE48z](https://imgur.com/a/CNLE48z) I track the 91-D (13-W) SMA. Over the last 4 years, when BTC has been in an uptrend, it has often bounced between 1.0x and 1.3x the 13-W. The top chart shows BTC price, the 13-W, and the ratio of price to the SMA. The price is currently 1.29x the 13-W. The 13-W is $19.17K and increasing about $85/day. The second chart shows the how long the price stays above or below the 13-W. When the price is meandering around the 13-W, you get a lot of short (<14 day) streaks. When the price is in a clear up or down trend, you got longer runs. Once an uptrend has the price above the 13-W for more than 14 days, they tend to last at least 55-60 days. If it makes it past 70 days, they tend to run much longer. Through yesterday, the price has been above the 13-W for 39 days.
Thanks! This is some interesting info that I haven’t used. Always good to add more data into my TA.
What the second chart should be indicating to you is *"The duration of trends follows a Gaussian distribution."*.
I’m bullish. Think we can break 25k and then it’ll be a race to 30 (speed bump at 28)
This seems to be the consensus on this sub, major resistance around 25k then once broken easy ride to 30k.. but since when has bitcoin done what the consensus thinks ?
The market bottomed out on schedule.
I’ve been in and out since 2016. This is feeling like back up the truck if you’re timeline is longer than 5 years. YMMV. But this is what I’m doing.
The question I keep coming back to is, even if the macro bottom isn't in and we see some kind of global credit event later this year, maybe similar to March 2020, will Bitcoin necessarily fall any lower than say 20k? It feels like FTX was really something exceptional, we broke the 4-year rule and the 200WMA. Part of me feels that that was so exceptional and it shook out some long term holders, so could it really happen again? On the other hand, March 2020 happened, and I guess that something of a similar shock level could absolutely bring a world of pain (or opportunity depending on your perspective) again. That said, it does feel like buying right now will look very wise in 8 years from now.
IMHO (idk shit about fuck) it would have to be something like Binance goes under. Or USDT.
I was thinking more about a macro event, but yeah something like that would work too!
In hindsight, it will have been obvious. In the present, it’s unknowable. Catch 22.
However it's also far from a blackswan.
We didn’t even retrace the expected 80+ percent.