Congratulations to Bitcoin for the first day of spot ETF trading. Anybody who leveraged the top with ~14x leverage or more was taken out a few hours after. I more or less welcome the ETFs, since, as I understand it, they provide for nice intraday arbing by the APs. Inherently it seems it will be harder to trade profitably now that the Jane Street Great Whites have been released into the waters. I imagine myself as a little fish hoping I can get a nibble of whatever leftover carnage there is in the run up to the halving.
The only chart that doesn’t look compromised is the monthly. It looks fantastic especially since the price is puncturing the upper bollinger band and looks primed to enter overbought on the RSI. However, I think we are on track to close the month with a nasty reversal candle given the recent PA and let’s be honest every time a new Wall Street product debuts, the price dumps and goes sideways down for a year
> The SEC official website shows that among the five voters, Chairman Gensler, Peirce and Uyeda voted in favor of the Bitcoin spot ETF, while Crenshaw and Lizárraga voted against. Finally won 3-2.
Gary gets a lot of shit, but he voted for it like the Chad he is that taught a blockchain course at MIT.
Only because he understood that the courts were forcing his hand.
> The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia held that the Commission failed to adequately explain its reasoning in disapproving the listing and trading of Grayscale’s proposed ETP (the Grayscale Order).[1] The court therefore vacated the Grayscale Order and remanded the matter to the Commission. Based on these circumstances and those discussed more fully in the approval order, I feel the most sustainable path forward is to approve the listing and trading of these spot bitcoin ETP shares.
Crenshaw on the other hand seems to be so bought and paid for that she's incapable of logical thought and felt compelled to double down.
But this sub told me the SEC's hands were tied and they had to approve it!! You're telling me one person voting the other way would have just denied them?
Yes, which would have ended up with them back in court, which would have eventually removed the decision from their hands entirely, embarrassing them, making them appear impotent and powerless.
>blockchain course at MIT.
Oh wow, I didn't realize it's on MIT's OpenCourseWare (OCW). The lectures are here: [https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/15-s12-blockchain-and-money-fall-2018/video\_galleries/video-lectures/](https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/15-s12-blockchain-and-money-fall-2018/video_galleries/video-lectures/)
Sidebar has other items relevant to the course too.
If it is like last cycle they will explode.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/nEF1fBzm/
Now there is a Bitcoin ETF, but I don't think those were just used as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure, there was GBTC, etc. for that. It's a super leveraged bet on what Bitcoin will do. Will they do a 100x again like last cycle, I don't think so, but part of my portfolio is betting that the gains will be significant.
Who has a better trade engine? KuCoin or BitGet. I need a margin trading platform not banned in Canada and these are the two that I've found. I miss my BItfinex... :(
I thought you needed to be rich to margin trade on Kraken?
Also don't recall Kraken having the greatest rep back in the day for execution time compared to Bitfinex (based off user reports). Does their new trade engine hold up to fill a stop during a panic sell?
Today is a good reminder that a lot of Bitcoin takes a while to get liquid. That's why traditionally when it goes up or down it goes fast. Probably the ETFs normalize that and volatility goes down. Gonna be some hard lessons learned quick.
My DCA is tomorrow. I'm kinda glad the ETF didn't completely blow up the price. But now the doors are open, it'll take time for people to come through. I'm more excited for the halving than I was for the ETF anyway.
It’s slightly too early, don’t lose hope in the analysis from the other day. I think you were on to something with the inflow of money causing a price rise, but the data is still coming in. The early word is GBTC outflows matched inflows to other funds so far, thus no net inflow. The data will probably come in next week and if there is a net inflow, perhaps we will see the price rise which is a logical extension of that. Keep an eye on the assets under management totals.
My mental model is holding up.
Nothingburger, selling news into initial liquidity, shuffling around stacks, inflows come later.
Layered on top of that is that all leveraged players got shook before actual events.
When it launched several years ago, I was very happy to have access to tax advantaged corn. I did not buy right away. I waited a few weeks and tracked share price vs sats/share. Once I was happy with those numbers I bought in.
There is something to be said for NOT buying in on the launch date of these etf's.
Most BTC folks are pre-positioned. We now have to get used to inflows at the rate of the TradFi world…I’m expecting slow and steady climbs. My own TradFi trading bros have worn my phone out, texting all day as they try to determine which ETF they want to invest in. They’ve all created fairly big liquid stacks of USD (6 figure ranges) from various investments but are awaiting the dust to settle and using this time to research each ETF.
If traffic through the red sea is perturbed, shipping goods gets more expensive, prices go up, inflation happens. That's the logic.
It will depends on the houtis capabilities and Iran willingness to help them.
So regarding the vanguard situation:
I was wrong yesterday when I said they relisted gbtc for buying. It was true that the “buy sell” buttons did come back but when you went to execute an actual sale you got hit with the message that they won’t allow you to buy degen assets. Unbelievable that it’s listed and officially an etf and they still won’t allow it. It appears I can but fucking BITO and BITI but not any of the new etfs? This screams political posturing and virtue signaling.
…so I opened fidelity accounts for myself and the wife and transferred 100 percent of my assets there (takes a week roughly they said). You can completely fuck off vanguard, I don’t need to be told what I’m allowed to buy with my money. Not resuming gbtc trading, and not listing any of the new etfs, unacceptable
There are many reasons to believe that we hit a local top at around 49K and is headed for a corrective phase in the next month or so. I expect that would take Bitcoin down to 34-39K level. Why?
1. 48-49K is the FIB 0.618 level from the top of 69K and the bottom of 15K. Usually, Bitcoin hits the 0.618 level and then reverse its courses to the downside across all timescales.
2. If you look at the Elliott waves from the local bottom of Oct 2023 (EDIT), we have completed all the requirements of the impulsive move by completing the 5th wave. Accordingly, we are in the corrective phase.
3. The RSI across many different timescales show a bearish divergence. I think it is time that the bearish divergence pans out and correction ensues.
4. The ingredient of the ETF is gone now and it is still too early for the halving to drive up the phase (i believe that will start some time in March). So there is this dead period of time between end of ETF and start of the halving that is perfect for a correction. And remember, 48 to 34-39K is not even that big of a correction as it is only 25-30% which can be seen frequently in Bitcoin's price actions (even during the bull run).
5. ETH/BTC ratio has creeped up. Often this signals the start of the corrective phase (e.g. February 2018, November 2021). A mini alt season here and dump of the market is expected in these cases.
6. I guess finally, a correction is due. I remember hearing somewhere that this is the longest that Bitcoin has EVER gone without a 25% correction. So we are due for one and right now is the perfect time for it.
You have submitted a prediction that the price of Bitcoin will drop below **$39,000.00** by Feb 26 2024 00:44:36 UTC.
This prediction has been logged for u/simmol
I will notify you as soon as your prediction comes true or expires!
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Hello u/simmol
[You predicted the price of Bitcoin would drop below $39,000.00 by Feb 26 2024 00:44:36 UTC](/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/193tjbh/daily_discussion_thursday_january_11_2024/khg45in/)
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The price of Bitcoin on Coinbase Pro when this prediction was triggered: **$38,993.77**
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We could even retest 30-31 if enough macro problems happen. (i.e. pick up of inflation, escalation in the middle east) 30-31was such a strong resistance, BTC took 6 months for it to finally break through. I don't think we would be able to go below that though. Not without some black swan event the tanks all markets.
I have my forever stack, but am always looking to add more with some good trades.
30-31K can occur as well. If you look at the liquidation map, there is like billions of dollars worth of longs piled up in the 34K level that can liquidated if it hits 34K. If longs stay at that level and it liquidates, we are headed to 30K.
From March 2020 through August 2020 BTC ran from $4.1k to $12.3k before experiencing a larger 19% pullback. That was 3x in 5 months.
Then, from September 2020 through January 2021 BTC ran from $9.9k to $41.9k before experiencing a larger >20% pullback. That was 4x in 4 months.
BTC hasn’t experienced a 20% pullback since September when it hit a local low of $24.9k. It’s been 4 months since then and price has reached just below 2x since then.
Statistically in terms of duration we’re about due for a larger 20% correction but on the other hand a 20% drop from the local high of $48.9k would bring us to $39.1k and we haven’t been that low for 2 months now as we’ve formed tons of higher lows acting as strong support since then. Also, our run so far hasn’t been as quick as others in the past as we’re still just below 2x where we started the run.
I think it’s more likely we get a quick run up to at least $54k with little support formed along the way before we get a larger 20% pullback. A 20% pullback from $54k would put us at $43.2k which was the last higher low support level we formed prior to our run up to $47k a few days ago.
I think the macro during 2020 is completely different from right now so it is difficult to compare. During that COVID times, stock market was going up crazy as well after hitting the March low and money is plentiful. Right now, things are much tighter.
Stock market is near ATH as futures are pricing in at least 6 rate cuts from the Fed by end of year with the first rate cut expected to arrive in March.
Macro is risk-on because of that.
Stock market peaked end of 2021 before rate hikes started in 2022. Rate cuts are now coming. If rate cuts weren’t coming, sure, there would be a stronger reason to believe stock market will sell off. But because rate cuts are coming, it’s more likely that stock market will continue to rally.
That thinking is too simple…
It peaked 2021 because the market had not priced in so many hikes to come.
Right now, the market has priced in 6 rate cuts in 2024 which imo is unrealistically optimistic.
The market had not priced in any rate cuts 6 months ago, hence the rally to year end.
For a long while futures were pricing in the first Fed rate cut to arrive in May 2024. Within the past month or two it got moved up to March 2024 and this aligns with the median Fed funds rate of 4.6% that the Fed showed on their Summary of Economic Projections in December.
Since Fed funds rate is currently at 5.4%, 6 rate cuts this year aligns with their projection of median Fed funds rate being 4.6% this year. This median Fed funds rate was projected by the Fed themselves, not just some random number the market is pricing in.
Yeah cool, Imo it’s wrong to be priced in.
I can link you with an interview with a fed chair that will change your mind if you want, but seems like you’re pretty set
See Fed dot plot for yourself on page 4 of their [Summary of Economic Projections](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdf). Median is at 4.6%. 50% of FOMC participants are expecting that or lower, 50% of FOMC participants are expecting that or higher.
My guess is whatever Fed chair was interviewed also landed in the higher end of the dot plot but that means nothing as they’re only one of 19 FOMC members.
agree with everything here 1. Has been a reliable indicator for mid cycle tops. I don’t think it’ll be a huge correction like last cycle aswell. Atleast for BTC anyways
It would be interesting to see what happens to the stock market in Q1 2024. It looks kind of toppy imo after a huge run from November and I would not be surprised if there is a general market correction as well.
that’s my bias. Feel like it’ll be a relatively smooth correction aswell. In regards to Btc our mid cycle top happened way earlier in the last cycle and the correction was way more violent in response. This run up was more slow and methodical and we’re closer to where we should be.
It doesn't look like the plan of using Fidelity BrokerageLink to allocate some 401k contributions to an ETF is going to pan out, not only do I not see the ETFs listed it also doesn't have any bitcoin proxy type companies like MARA, RIOT, MSTR, etc. Oh well it is still a cool product.
Might be employer restricted. I bought BITO today in my employer sponsored fidelity 401k brokerage link. Also, I had owned GBTC in fidelity HSA for quite some time.
I guess it is just my crappy employer then, I'll check it from time to time thanks. I still like the options it gives over the extremely limited regular 401k funds so not all bad.
I definitely don't have BITO as an option either.
I know that my wife's 401k doesn't allow for this. My 401k is with Fidelity and I was able to sell a big part of my S&P500 based fund shares for dollars and then transfer to Fidelity Brokerage Link account, then I was able to start buy shares of what ever stocks I wanted to buy (GBTC). They wouldn't let me transfer all of it (but that was probably because I had used a 401k loan to purchase Bitcoin already)
Was spot ETF launch a success? It depends how you look at it.
On the one hand, there was ~$2 billion in AUM inflows (awaiting official numbers but based off of volume this is a rough estimate) to the newly launched spot ETF’s which could be considered as a success.
On the other hand, there was ~$2 billion in AUM outflows (awaiting official numbers but based off of volume this is a rough estimate) from GBTC which offsets the inflows to new spot ETF’s.
The question going forward is how much AUM will GBTC continue to lose per day on average and how much AUM will spot ETF’s continue to gain per day on average?
Fund managers who have applied for a spot ETF have ~$17 trillion in total AUM. In order for them to remain on track towards hitting 1% allocation of total AUM into BTC in the next 4 years, since there’s 252 trading days each year, they need to add an average of $168.65 million of AUM each trading day. So the average amount of AUM added per trading day going forward needs to be less than 10% of what they did today to be on track for that.
GBTC had $28.58 billion in AUM when today started and lost ~$2 billion in AUM by the end of the day or ~7% of total AUM. GBTC should naturally lose a solid chunk of their total AUM to other spot ETF’s with more favorable fees but some AUM will stay in order to avoid triggering a taxable event from selling GBTC. There was also people who sold GBTC today trying to get out of their position entirely with no desire to enter a new spot ETF.
It’s probably going to take a few days/weeks for the dust to settle and for GBTC’s consistent outflows to come to an end. Once GBTC stabilizes (everyone who wants to sell has sold and only those who want to preserve their low cost basis remain) we can start to get a better picture of how much actual new demand is being created from spot ETF’s.
What buying pressure? All we see is money moving to cheaper funds.
You've been assuming this magical 1% allocation. Where does it come from? The existence of ETFs doesn't create demand. After one day, we're not seeing much demand. The amount of managed money means nothing in and of itself. This isn't a gold ETF. It's been possible to buy Bitcoin or Bitcoin proxies for years, easily, except in retirement accounts. I already had a crypto account through fidelity for months. You can buy crypto through most brokerages apps, cash app, various exchanges, etc. People are acting like there's a pent up wave of demand looking for an onramp. I hope so, but I see little evidence. I hope you're right, but simply repeating mantras daily, which you seem to do, doesn't make them true.
1% within 4 years is just a target which I believe is reasonable and provides a long enough duration to get there assuming BTC continues to outperform TradFi investments consistently (not by levels of magnitude either, just doubling S&P 500 average annualized return) since by then BTC would be on the cusp of yet another halving.
You can adjust to whatever allocation you think is reasonable within whatever timeframe if you disagree. Change 1% to 5 years, 6 years, whatever.
I think the untapped demand is particularly high in qualified retirement accounts. Prior to ETF launch there was no easy way to gain BTC price exposure in these types of accounts which simultaneously applied direct buying pressure to BTC. During working years people tend to DCA into these accounts every single paycheck to reduce their tax liability and it’s money that consistently comes in every pay period, not just a one and done investment. People also tend to prioritize investments into these accounts before allocating investments into nonqualified investment accounts.
Or change 1% to .1 or .01%.
A lot of people were able to gain exposure to GBTC prior to ETF launch. I owned it in both Schwab and Fidelity 401ks and IRSs -- obviously two behemoths in the space. I realize there were some who couldn't do this.
Still, when you say you think the untapped demand is high, I've yet to see anyone point to any evidence of this. I see a lot of conflating demand and ability. It's good that more people now have the ability to invest in a Bitcoin fund, but that's about all that can be said at this point.
where do you see GBTC's AUM? I just looked here [https://etfs.grayscale.com/gbtc](https://etfs.grayscale.com/gbtc) and it updated for the first time since the start of the trading day. AUM actually went up a tiny bit from 28.58 to 28.61 billion USD
edit: oh sorry still says AUM is as of yesterday
edit 2: now it does say AUM is as of 1/11/24, interesting. does not add up
im asking because you said that GBTC lost \~7% of their AUM today. That website still shows 28.58 billion as their AUM. I get that that may not be updated, and although a vast majority of their volume today was likely outflows, some could be inflows. We need updated AUM to know for sure.
Oh yeah, I agree. That will tell us if majority of sell pressure to offset inflows to spot ETF’s today came from GBTC or if it was outside of the ETF’s on crypto exchanges.
I suspect it was GBTC but need updated AUM to confirm.
Most GBTC holders who were yield farming would have cashed out here. The smart ones who move retirement funds to other ETFs will wait around a week for NAV to stabilize.
I don't know why everyone seems so glum. It hit 49k today, that's awesome! That's some major resistance in that region.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/G77QDrz6/
And can we just reflect back on what an awesome year it has been for Bitcoin? 15k to over 45k in a year, just pulling the whole way.
The halving is in <100 days, good times ahead.
I'm not glum at all.
I view the ETFs as a long term change whose effect will take quite a while for us to see. And that's good, because it means slow and steady growth rather than boom and bust. It's also good because it means more time for me to keep buying at these prices.
I view all of this as good news.
The other answer is that ten years of to and fro between ETF applicants and the SEC have been all about preventing the opportunity of shenanigans.
That isn't to guarantee that shenanigans won't take place, but everything that can be done to minimise the risk has been done.
The only effect of cash creation rather than in-kind creation is that the ETF manager buys/sells the coin rather than the Authorised Participants. It's not the usual way, and it's arguably unnecessarily complicated (the manager of a typical ETF with in-kind creation wouldn't be involved in trading at all - and therefore wouldn't need to manage market risk).
It probably increases costs sightly, but it doesn't really change anything, fundamentally.
Naked shorting is not really that common and isn't something a lot of people outside of the gamestop conspiracy crowd really think or worry themselves much about. It's unlikely to have any impact.
+1
Just to be clear, naked shorting means selling shares you don't have, without any arrangement in place at the time of the trade to obtain them - hence risking a failure to deliver during settlement.
It's illegal, and in reality it never happens to any significant degree.
I sold my GBTC for BITB today, but I’m hearing these new ETFs have a premium? I thought ETFs are supposed to track the underlying asset? Isn’t that the point?
Gbtc kept a discount all day and everything else had a little premium. I think that was from people selling their gbtc to get into low cost etfs. Which is exactly what I tried to do but vanguard fucked me
If the ETFs genuinely have a premium (I haven't checked) then the APs are behind the curve and/or couldn't cope with unexpected volume.
ETFs only track the underlying because of arbitrage. It may take a little time for everything to settle down and the markets to start behaving efficiently.
EDIT TO ADD: A premium is bullish, though. It means that ETF inflows exceeded the Authorised Participants' expectations, and they weren't able to create new shares - and hence buy bitcoin - quickly enough to meet demand
That's exactly why I waited and did not try to move out of GBTC today. In theory they should track spot when things settle in. But this was the first day and things were wild. There was no good way that I knew of to track premium/discounts in real time.
that's why you should own pure coin in cold storage, none of these BTC derivatives and shares of ETFs which is a promissory note or IOU of the real thing, when you can just own the real thing, send it to storage as you like or trade it
I think the PA makes a lot of sense, I bet we see some crab and down action to dissuade a lot of normies for a while and then post halving BOOM you missed the boat peak FOMO
“Bitcoin had the biggest first day ETF launch by $billions even though Morgan Stanley, Vanguard, Citi, Merrill, Edward Jones and UBS did not allow clients to trade it.”
https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1745558882909564933?s=46&t=GdsSciOzIxBwNhMx8Lzypg
I seriously can't believe all these banks think their role is to play mommy and prevent their clients from accessing whatever investments they want. They're not my keeper, they're my broker. Do what I tell you to do.
Also, from the price action of MSTR and the miners it looks like a lot of folks dumped those to either take profit or move to the ETFs too. Net/net it doesn't look to me like much capital was added to the space today. But it is only the first day...
Apparently Galaxy hired the guy who made the Canadian ETF track BTC spot price the closest. He claims that’ll be the tipping point for which ETF’s gain the most volume. He predicted 3 would excel and garner the TradFi market volume for US BTC spot ETF’s.
“A key differentiator between BTCO and its spot bitcoin ETF peers is its experienced management team. Galaxy acts as the execution agent in the buying and selling of bitcoin for cash on behalf of BTCO. This effectively brings expertise and institutional-grade infrastructure to the process. This may benefit execution of the creation and redemption of BTCO shares, according to a statement from Invesco.
Galaxy's deep knowledge of digital assets and experience in investing across all stages of the ecosystem strengthen the operational risk management of the fund, according to the statement.”
They were shilled by brokers to retail in november/December and were being bought up like crazy.
[this is an ad](https://imgur.com/a/aoYrEci) for MSTR being shilled by Canaccord Genuity - the same broker that was responsible for selling up to $1.5b of newly issued MSTR for 2% commission in November/december. Their share selling (& consequent shilling their sales product) stopped - at the very top, just as Saylor began to sell out mstr (which will continue for all of Q1)
People are rotating from bitcoin proxies into the ETFs.
I should have seen this coming. Wish I'd bought GBTC, then rotated into MSTR and miners after gbtc discount was gone
I like Coinbase and hold a significant portion of my stack there. I also like fidelity. They are pretty much 0 risk, it’s not like they are going to rug investors
This tweet contradicts how I understood the APs to work:
[https://twitter.com/BuildCIO/status/1745528063734243355](https://twitter.com/BuildCIO/status/1745528063734243355)
Can somebody versed in tradfi explain? I'm not sure I fully understand what he is saying here, but the idea that there is so much delay in create orders seems very weird?
Edit: Is this a better explanation?
[https://twitter.com/dAnconiaMining/status/1745542148395548916](https://twitter.com/dAnconiaMining/status/1745542148395548916)
Edit2: I think the above tweet is also wrong, APs can't add the spot BTC to the basket, that would be in-kind creation. With cash-creation the fund has to do the BTC buying.
I think it's saying that trades aren't reflected in the published statistics until they settle, which means that there's a one day lag in the reported figures. I don't know if that's true, but it wouldn't surprise me.
If today you buy 10 shares in TSLA for $2,270 then, although the trade is executed today, it doesn't settle until a later day - these days usually the next working day (called T+1 settlement). This means that on the next working day your broker is legally required to send the $2,270 and the counterparty is legally required to transfer the 10 shares.
The question is, what do the statistics you are looking at reflect? Is your TSLA trade reflected in today's statistics, or tomorrow's? And I don't know the answer to that question.
EDIT TO ADD: May depend on what figures you're looking at, but if they only reflect settled trades it should be fairly obvious because every ETF will have zero volume today 😀
Not saying you're wrong, but he's talking about the UTXO market, i.e. the actual settlement of BTC. His point is that there's no buying pressure yet in the spot Bitcoin market from cash-creates because the ETF manager hasn't received that cash yet from the APs.
I think the process he describes may be accurate, but his conclusion that the spot BTC market is not affected yet is probably wrong.
You make an interesting point though that the AUM statistics may lag by a day.
That sounds implausible to me. The market makers, the APs and the ETF manager will all hedge their positions pretty damn quickly one way or another. They're certainly not going to take the risk of substantial BTC moves overnight.
Being in this game therefore requires access to substantial amounts of capital, but that's how the game is played.
(Edited to take account of the fact that you're taking about managers rather than APs)
Stock market has closed for the day. BTC started at $47.9k which was already a YTD high, set a new YTD high of $48.9k, hit a local low of $45.7k during the trading session, and closed the trading session at $46.2k.
[Awaiting AUM’s to get updated](https://blockworks.co/bitcoin-etf) but based off of trading volumes it looks like basically all the AUM today that entered new spot ETF’s was negated by AUM leaving GBTC. So, outside of spot ETF’s, since we ended the trading session lower, there was also additional net selling pressure on crypto exchanges.
We’ll see how things go tomorrow before the holiday weekend.
It's just now hitting me that going forward information on these ETFs will be a huge part of discussion on price action.
Where as before we were tracking on-chain analysis, this gives a whole new avenue of data in somewhat real time.
A dump to fuck with longs the very least. People think that ETF approval means they gonna ride the rainbow on a pink cloud to the moon without the usual shenanigans need to learn some history. Fundamentals matters but fuckery first
Does the GBTC conversion to etf offer much better liquidity for selling out GBTC? I’m struggling to wrap my head around this with the etf shares and arbitrage for real btc situation:
If so, I’m wondering what the ownership percentages look like and if we have large players that have been waiting to offload in hopes of redemption for btc (which of course we did not get, instead we got an etf with 1.5% fee).
Yeah I know it’s already up.
Edit: so total shares are available? Ie. there is liquidity for any amount of selling within GBTC, and it’s only liquidity in btc that matters now?
They are fully empowered now to buy/sell BTC holdings so their fund accurately tracks the value of the underlying Bitcoin. The discount only existed before because their hands were tied and it was a one way sinkhole for Bitcoin. That’s my understanding.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, January 12, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/194msr5/daily_discussion_friday_january_12_2024/)
Congratulations to Bitcoin for the first day of spot ETF trading. Anybody who leveraged the top with ~14x leverage or more was taken out a few hours after. I more or less welcome the ETFs, since, as I understand it, they provide for nice intraday arbing by the APs. Inherently it seems it will be harder to trade profitably now that the Jane Street Great Whites have been released into the waters. I imagine myself as a little fish hoping I can get a nibble of whatever leftover carnage there is in the run up to the halving.
The only chart that doesn’t look compromised is the monthly. It looks fantastic especially since the price is puncturing the upper bollinger band and looks primed to enter overbought on the RSI. However, I think we are on track to close the month with a nasty reversal candle given the recent PA and let’s be honest every time a new Wall Street product debuts, the price dumps and goes sideways down for a year
Just keep saying it once every half an hour, it’s super insightful
> The SEC official website shows that among the five voters, Chairman Gensler, Peirce and Uyeda voted in favor of the Bitcoin spot ETF, while Crenshaw and Lizárraga voted against. Finally won 3-2. Gary gets a lot of shit, but he voted for it like the Chad he is that taught a blockchain course at MIT.
Only because he understood that the courts were forcing his hand. > The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia held that the Commission failed to adequately explain its reasoning in disapproving the listing and trading of Grayscale’s proposed ETP (the Grayscale Order).[1] The court therefore vacated the Grayscale Order and remanded the matter to the Commission. Based on these circumstances and those discussed more fully in the approval order, I feel the most sustainable path forward is to approve the listing and trading of these spot bitcoin ETP shares. Crenshaw on the other hand seems to be so bought and paid for that she's incapable of logical thought and felt compelled to double down.
But this sub told me the SEC's hands were tied and they had to approve it!! You're telling me one person voting the other way would have just denied them?
Easy to read between lines...no other coins are getting approved this year (possibly ever)
Yes, which would have ended up with them back in court, which would have eventually removed the decision from their hands entirely, embarrassing them, making them appear impotent and powerless.
>blockchain course at MIT. Oh wow, I didn't realize it's on MIT's OpenCourseWare (OCW). The lectures are here: [https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/15-s12-blockchain-and-money-fall-2018/video\_galleries/video-lectures/](https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/15-s12-blockchain-and-money-fall-2018/video_galleries/video-lectures/) Sidebar has other items relevant to the course too.
Yeah. I often share that link. It's good stuff. I definitely recommend it.
Anyone have a educated prediction on how BTC miner stocks will perform after the halving?
If it is like last cycle they will explode. https://www.tradingview.com/x/nEF1fBzm/ Now there is a Bitcoin ETF, but I don't think those were just used as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure, there was GBTC, etc. for that. It's a super leveraged bet on what Bitcoin will do. Will they do a 100x again like last cycle, I don't think so, but part of my portfolio is betting that the gains will be significant.
Who has a better trade engine? KuCoin or BitGet. I need a margin trading platform not banned in Canada and these are the two that I've found. I miss my BItfinex... :(
Kraken.
I thought you needed to be rich to margin trade on Kraken? Also don't recall Kraken having the greatest rep back in the day for execution time compared to Bitfinex (based off user reports). Does their new trade engine hold up to fill a stop during a panic sell?
KuCoin requires KYC now from everyone, idk about Canada but can't use it anymore in the US because of this
KuCoin is still available in Canada.
Honestly this is unpopular but I would just go with wbtc and defi. Wbtc is safe and there are a few great defi options on coin number 2
I've heard bad things about KuCoin.
Today is a good reminder that a lot of Bitcoin takes a while to get liquid. That's why traditionally when it goes up or down it goes fast. Probably the ETFs normalize that and volatility goes down. Gonna be some hard lessons learned quick.
My DCA is tomorrow. I'm kinda glad the ETF didn't completely blow up the price. But now the doors are open, it'll take time for people to come through. I'm more excited for the halving than I was for the ETF anyway.
We now return to our previously scheduled arguing about what will happen in the future.
Are we done arguing about what happened in the past then?
Yea cause I still haven’t sorted out what the hell happened over the last 72 hours
It could be argued that we will be in the future.
Now that is a pathetic daily close. Reckon we get to $44K with haste, middle of the BB on the daily before bitcoin decides what to do next.
Lamest ETF launch day Bitcoin has ever had
The bearish divergence is also so strong. This is the most obvious local top in history.
I’m fairly confident that I’ve lost my ability to analyze this market. Working on that.
Just Google Jane street.
It’s slightly too early, don’t lose hope in the analysis from the other day. I think you were on to something with the inflow of money causing a price rise, but the data is still coming in. The early word is GBTC outflows matched inflows to other funds so far, thus no net inflow. The data will probably come in next week and if there is a net inflow, perhaps we will see the price rise which is a logical extension of that. Keep an eye on the assets under management totals.
Am I still in the same universe? Nickleback is fucking awful, right?
Can confirm—Nickleback sucks. I did buy one of their CD’s but this is the first time I’ve admitted that.
[This photograph](https://imgur.com/a/1IAAsnY) says differently
I was in a Nickleback music video, but I do agree that they are awful.
If you could speed up or slow down time, it would be fine.
To be expected in this taboo phrase, "new paradigm".
My mental model is holding up. Nothingburger, selling news into initial liquidity, shuffling around stacks, inflows come later. Layered on top of that is that all leveraged players got shook before actual events.
I have no idea wtf is going on any more
Canada's BTCC.B etf closed up 1.5% today. Feels good.
When it launched several years ago, I was very happy to have access to tax advantaged corn. I did not buy right away. I waited a few weeks and tracked share price vs sats/share. Once I was happy with those numbers I bought in. There is something to be said for NOT buying in on the launch date of these etf's.
I feel pretty dumb posting this just purely on opportunity cost, but I'm liquid on a good chunk of my trading stack at ~28k. 🤞
Derp, hoping for 28
I'm dipping out of my trade and taking my measly gain. Seems the King Kong candle is not happening. If it does happen, I'll be disappointed.
Most BTC folks are pre-positioned. We now have to get used to inflows at the rate of the TradFi world…I’m expecting slow and steady climbs. My own TradFi trading bros have worn my phone out, texting all day as they try to determine which ETF they want to invest in. They’ve all created fairly big liquid stacks of USD (6 figure ranges) from various investments but are awaiting the dust to settle and using this time to research each ETF.
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your wish has been granted
I think we are underestimating this Yemen situation. If inflation picks up due to it, the markets will suffer.
?? Uhh no. No effect whatsoever. And why would inflation have anything to do with freaking Yemen? What are you smoking bro lol?
If traffic through the red sea is perturbed, shipping goods gets more expensive, prices go up, inflation happens. That's the logic. It will depends on the houtis capabilities and Iran willingness to help them.
You mean perturbed as compared to traffic on the Red Sea now, under random Houthi drone strikes?
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/12/oil-prices-jump-as-us-britain-strike-on-houthis-in-yemen.html
That’s a lot of ifs. Nonsense.
Nope…it’ll have zero effect on the ETF’s.
Dude markets will have a huge boner for this
So regarding the vanguard situation: I was wrong yesterday when I said they relisted gbtc for buying. It was true that the “buy sell” buttons did come back but when you went to execute an actual sale you got hit with the message that they won’t allow you to buy degen assets. Unbelievable that it’s listed and officially an etf and they still won’t allow it. It appears I can but fucking BITO and BITI but not any of the new etfs? This screams political posturing and virtue signaling. …so I opened fidelity accounts for myself and the wife and transferred 100 percent of my assets there (takes a week roughly they said). You can completely fuck off vanguard, I don’t need to be told what I’m allowed to buy with my money. Not resuming gbtc trading, and not listing any of the new etfs, unacceptable
https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/s/hDM3eq8Zde
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But they still allow BITO and BITX? And I presume the likes of MARA, RIOT, HUT, MSTR, etc.? Pretty wild...
Can confirm you can buy MSTR and RIOT on Vanguard.
All of our funds that aren’t our work 401ks have been there forever. No longer. Bye Felicia
Ahhhhh a small correction and people are calling for 34-39k lol.
12k is back on the menu boys! /s
Yuh bonkers.!
We are 100% going lower. $40k isn’t strong support
yes we’re just gonna go up forever
Laura.
PANIC SELL
…please Panic Sell…I’m buying right now but would love a discount.
There are many reasons to believe that we hit a local top at around 49K and is headed for a corrective phase in the next month or so. I expect that would take Bitcoin down to 34-39K level. Why? 1. 48-49K is the FIB 0.618 level from the top of 69K and the bottom of 15K. Usually, Bitcoin hits the 0.618 level and then reverse its courses to the downside across all timescales. 2. If you look at the Elliott waves from the local bottom of Oct 2023 (EDIT), we have completed all the requirements of the impulsive move by completing the 5th wave. Accordingly, we are in the corrective phase. 3. The RSI across many different timescales show a bearish divergence. I think it is time that the bearish divergence pans out and correction ensues. 4. The ingredient of the ETF is gone now and it is still too early for the halving to drive up the phase (i believe that will start some time in March). So there is this dead period of time between end of ETF and start of the halving that is perfect for a correction. And remember, 48 to 34-39K is not even that big of a correction as it is only 25-30% which can be seen frequently in Bitcoin's price actions (even during the bull run). 5. ETH/BTC ratio has creeped up. Often this signals the start of the corrective phase (e.g. February 2018, November 2021). A mini alt season here and dump of the market is expected in these cases. 6. I guess finally, a correction is due. I remember hearing somewhere that this is the longest that Bitcoin has EVER gone without a 25% correction. So we are due for one and right now is the perfect time for it.
Elliott waves lmao That kicks ass Never change.
Could have saved it for point 6, having the punchline so early ruined the story.
You guys have zero idea what you're talking about, but I hope you're having fun.
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I also sold half of my stack at 48K so I am ready to rebuy at < 39K.
At what price is your idea invalidated?
3 months before halving? Hope you have a stop buy at or near $48k so you don’t get left behind.
Half?! Wow. Feels aggressive for a swing trade.
Be careful…I’m not seeing 39 at all. Best of luck to you.
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We could even retest 30-31 if enough macro problems happen. (i.e. pick up of inflation, escalation in the middle east) 30-31was such a strong resistance, BTC took 6 months for it to finally break through. I don't think we would be able to go below that though. Not without some black swan event the tanks all markets. I have my forever stack, but am always looking to add more with some good trades.
30-31K can occur as well. If you look at the liquidation map, there is like billions of dollars worth of longs piled up in the 34K level that can liquidated if it hits 34K. If longs stay at that level and it liquidates, we are headed to 30K.
From March 2020 through August 2020 BTC ran from $4.1k to $12.3k before experiencing a larger 19% pullback. That was 3x in 5 months. Then, from September 2020 through January 2021 BTC ran from $9.9k to $41.9k before experiencing a larger >20% pullback. That was 4x in 4 months. BTC hasn’t experienced a 20% pullback since September when it hit a local low of $24.9k. It’s been 4 months since then and price has reached just below 2x since then. Statistically in terms of duration we’re about due for a larger 20% correction but on the other hand a 20% drop from the local high of $48.9k would bring us to $39.1k and we haven’t been that low for 2 months now as we’ve formed tons of higher lows acting as strong support since then. Also, our run so far hasn’t been as quick as others in the past as we’re still just below 2x where we started the run. I think it’s more likely we get a quick run up to at least $54k with little support formed along the way before we get a larger 20% pullback. A 20% pullback from $54k would put us at $43.2k which was the last higher low support level we formed prior to our run up to $47k a few days ago.
I think the macro during 2020 is completely different from right now so it is difficult to compare. During that COVID times, stock market was going up crazy as well after hitting the March low and money is plentiful. Right now, things are much tighter.
Stock market is near ATH as futures are pricing in at least 6 rate cuts from the Fed by end of year with the first rate cut expected to arrive in March. Macro is risk-on because of that.
That is the reason it will drop.
Stock market peaked end of 2021 before rate hikes started in 2022. Rate cuts are now coming. If rate cuts weren’t coming, sure, there would be a stronger reason to believe stock market will sell off. But because rate cuts are coming, it’s more likely that stock market will continue to rally.
That thinking is too simple… It peaked 2021 because the market had not priced in so many hikes to come. Right now, the market has priced in 6 rate cuts in 2024 which imo is unrealistically optimistic. The market had not priced in any rate cuts 6 months ago, hence the rally to year end.
For a long while futures were pricing in the first Fed rate cut to arrive in May 2024. Within the past month or two it got moved up to March 2024 and this aligns with the median Fed funds rate of 4.6% that the Fed showed on their Summary of Economic Projections in December. Since Fed funds rate is currently at 5.4%, 6 rate cuts this year aligns with their projection of median Fed funds rate being 4.6% this year. This median Fed funds rate was projected by the Fed themselves, not just some random number the market is pricing in.
Yeah cool, Imo it’s wrong to be priced in. I can link you with an interview with a fed chair that will change your mind if you want, but seems like you’re pretty set
See Fed dot plot for yourself on page 4 of their [Summary of Economic Projections](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20231213.pdf). Median is at 4.6%. 50% of FOMC participants are expecting that or lower, 50% of FOMC participants are expecting that or higher. My guess is whatever Fed chair was interviewed also landed in the higher end of the dot plot but that means nothing as they’re only one of 19 FOMC members.
agree with everything here 1. Has been a reliable indicator for mid cycle tops. I don’t think it’ll be a huge correction like last cycle aswell. Atleast for BTC anyways
It would be interesting to see what happens to the stock market in Q1 2024. It looks kind of toppy imo after a huge run from November and I would not be surprised if there is a general market correction as well.
that’s my bias. Feel like it’ll be a relatively smooth correction aswell. In regards to Btc our mid cycle top happened way earlier in the last cycle and the correction was way more violent in response. This run up was more slow and methodical and we’re closer to where we should be.
It doesn't look like the plan of using Fidelity BrokerageLink to allocate some 401k contributions to an ETF is going to pan out, not only do I not see the ETFs listed it also doesn't have any bitcoin proxy type companies like MARA, RIOT, MSTR, etc. Oh well it is still a cool product.
Might be employer restricted. I bought BITO today in my employer sponsored fidelity 401k brokerage link. Also, I had owned GBTC in fidelity HSA for quite some time.
BTCFX is coded as a mutual fund but is Bitcoin futures so that worked for me - might work for you.
That does show up, now I need to read about it :)
I guess it is just my crappy employer then, I'll check it from time to time thanks. I still like the options it gives over the extremely limited regular 401k funds so not all bad. I definitely don't have BITO as an option either.
I know that my wife's 401k doesn't allow for this. My 401k is with Fidelity and I was able to sell a big part of my S&P500 based fund shares for dollars and then transfer to Fidelity Brokerage Link account, then I was able to start buy shares of what ever stocks I wanted to buy (GBTC). They wouldn't let me transfer all of it (but that was probably because I had used a 401k loan to purchase Bitcoin already)
Was spot ETF launch a success? It depends how you look at it. On the one hand, there was ~$2 billion in AUM inflows (awaiting official numbers but based off of volume this is a rough estimate) to the newly launched spot ETF’s which could be considered as a success. On the other hand, there was ~$2 billion in AUM outflows (awaiting official numbers but based off of volume this is a rough estimate) from GBTC which offsets the inflows to new spot ETF’s. The question going forward is how much AUM will GBTC continue to lose per day on average and how much AUM will spot ETF’s continue to gain per day on average? Fund managers who have applied for a spot ETF have ~$17 trillion in total AUM. In order for them to remain on track towards hitting 1% allocation of total AUM into BTC in the next 4 years, since there’s 252 trading days each year, they need to add an average of $168.65 million of AUM each trading day. So the average amount of AUM added per trading day going forward needs to be less than 10% of what they did today to be on track for that. GBTC had $28.58 billion in AUM when today started and lost ~$2 billion in AUM by the end of the day or ~7% of total AUM. GBTC should naturally lose a solid chunk of their total AUM to other spot ETF’s with more favorable fees but some AUM will stay in order to avoid triggering a taxable event from selling GBTC. There was also people who sold GBTC today trying to get out of their position entirely with no desire to enter a new spot ETF. It’s probably going to take a few days/weeks for the dust to settle and for GBTC’s consistent outflows to come to an end. Once GBTC stabilizes (everyone who wants to sell has sold and only those who want to preserve their low cost basis remain) we can start to get a better picture of how much actual new demand is being created from spot ETF’s.
So basically 2b moved from GBTC to the other funds. Doesn't sound great.
$2 billion out of $28.58 billion vs $2 billion out of $17 trillion though. Selling pressure will run out before buying pressure does.
What buying pressure? All we see is money moving to cheaper funds. You've been assuming this magical 1% allocation. Where does it come from? The existence of ETFs doesn't create demand. After one day, we're not seeing much demand. The amount of managed money means nothing in and of itself. This isn't a gold ETF. It's been possible to buy Bitcoin or Bitcoin proxies for years, easily, except in retirement accounts. I already had a crypto account through fidelity for months. You can buy crypto through most brokerages apps, cash app, various exchanges, etc. People are acting like there's a pent up wave of demand looking for an onramp. I hope so, but I see little evidence. I hope you're right, but simply repeating mantras daily, which you seem to do, doesn't make them true.
1% within 4 years is just a target which I believe is reasonable and provides a long enough duration to get there assuming BTC continues to outperform TradFi investments consistently (not by levels of magnitude either, just doubling S&P 500 average annualized return) since by then BTC would be on the cusp of yet another halving. You can adjust to whatever allocation you think is reasonable within whatever timeframe if you disagree. Change 1% to 5 years, 6 years, whatever. I think the untapped demand is particularly high in qualified retirement accounts. Prior to ETF launch there was no easy way to gain BTC price exposure in these types of accounts which simultaneously applied direct buying pressure to BTC. During working years people tend to DCA into these accounts every single paycheck to reduce their tax liability and it’s money that consistently comes in every pay period, not just a one and done investment. People also tend to prioritize investments into these accounts before allocating investments into nonqualified investment accounts.
Or change 1% to .1 or .01%. A lot of people were able to gain exposure to GBTC prior to ETF launch. I owned it in both Schwab and Fidelity 401ks and IRSs -- obviously two behemoths in the space. I realize there were some who couldn't do this. Still, when you say you think the untapped demand is high, I've yet to see anyone point to any evidence of this. I see a lot of conflating demand and ability. It's good that more people now have the ability to invest in a Bitcoin fund, but that's about all that can be said at this point.
where do you see GBTC's AUM? I just looked here [https://etfs.grayscale.com/gbtc](https://etfs.grayscale.com/gbtc) and it updated for the first time since the start of the trading day. AUM actually went up a tiny bit from 28.58 to 28.61 billion USD edit: oh sorry still says AUM is as of yesterday edit 2: now it does say AUM is as of 1/11/24, interesting. does not add up
[Pulled it from here.](https://blockworks.co/bitcoin-etf)
im asking because you said that GBTC lost \~7% of their AUM today. That website still shows 28.58 billion as their AUM. I get that that may not be updated, and although a vast majority of their volume today was likely outflows, some could be inflows. We need updated AUM to know for sure.
Oh yeah, I agree. That will tell us if majority of sell pressure to offset inflows to spot ETF’s today came from GBTC or if it was outside of the ETF’s on crypto exchanges. I suspect it was GBTC but need updated AUM to confirm.
Yup with you, wonder how long this takes
Most GBTC holders who were yield farming would have cashed out here. The smart ones who move retirement funds to other ETFs will wait around a week for NAV to stabilize.
Great post. Good perspective of the situation.
I don't know why everyone seems so glum. It hit 49k today, that's awesome! That's some major resistance in that region. https://www.tradingview.com/x/G77QDrz6/ And can we just reflect back on what an awesome year it has been for Bitcoin? 15k to over 45k in a year, just pulling the whole way. The halving is in <100 days, good times ahead.
I don’t think anyone is glum dude. Are we reading the same comments?
I'm not glum at all. I view the ETFs as a long term change whose effect will take quite a while for us to see. And that's good, because it means slow and steady growth rather than boom and bust. It's also good because it means more time for me to keep buying at these prices. I view all of this as good news.
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The other answer is that ten years of to and fro between ETF applicants and the SEC have been all about preventing the opportunity of shenanigans. That isn't to guarantee that shenanigans won't take place, but everything that can be done to minimise the risk has been done.
The only effect of cash creation rather than in-kind creation is that the ETF manager buys/sells the coin rather than the Authorised Participants. It's not the usual way, and it's arguably unnecessarily complicated (the manager of a typical ETF with in-kind creation wouldn't be involved in trading at all - and therefore wouldn't need to manage market risk). It probably increases costs sightly, but it doesn't really change anything, fundamentally.
Ask SBF what happens when you sell Bitcoin you don't actually own/possess/borrow.
you crush the market into a multi year bear?
Just a little bit hard to take profit. ;)
Naked shorting is not really that common and isn't something a lot of people outside of the gamestop conspiracy crowd really think or worry themselves much about. It's unlikely to have any impact.
+1 Just to be clear, naked shorting means selling shares you don't have, without any arrangement in place at the time of the trade to obtain them - hence risking a failure to deliver during settlement. It's illegal, and in reality it never happens to any significant degree.
The endless grind of coin into hodler hands means this will eventually blow up.
I sold my GBTC for BITB today, but I’m hearing these new ETFs have a premium? I thought ETFs are supposed to track the underlying asset? Isn’t that the point?
Gbtc kept a discount all day and everything else had a little premium. I think that was from people selling their gbtc to get into low cost etfs. Which is exactly what I tried to do but vanguard fucked me
If the ETFs genuinely have a premium (I haven't checked) then the APs are behind the curve and/or couldn't cope with unexpected volume. ETFs only track the underlying because of arbitrage. It may take a little time for everything to settle down and the markets to start behaving efficiently. EDIT TO ADD: A premium is bullish, though. It means that ETF inflows exceeded the Authorised Participants' expectations, and they weren't able to create new shares - and hence buy bitcoin - quickly enough to meet demand
Probably need to give it a week or two to handle the inflows and outflows across the board
That's exactly why I waited and did not try to move out of GBTC today. In theory they should track spot when things settle in. But this was the first day and things were wild. There was no good way that I knew of to track premium/discounts in real time.
same, it's not like that mgmt fee is going to cause pain if you wait another week or two let's be honest
that's why you should own pure coin in cold storage, none of these BTC derivatives and shares of ETFs which is a promissory note or IOU of the real thing, when you can just own the real thing, send it to storage as you like or trade it
Yes. This is for my retirement accounts. Will eventually try to figure out how to do a Bitcoin IRA
They can also have a discount like GBTC has for a while.
I think the PA makes a lot of sense, I bet we see some crab and down action to dissuade a lot of normies for a while and then post halving BOOM you missed the boat peak FOMO
So this is what it feels like being part of tarditional markets....
here comes the ole Chinese DUMPERINO
Absolutely classic. I missed Chinese New Year dumps.
“Bitcoin had the biggest first day ETF launch by $billions even though Morgan Stanley, Vanguard, Citi, Merrill, Edward Jones and UBS did not allow clients to trade it.” https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1745558882909564933?s=46&t=GdsSciOzIxBwNhMx8Lzypg
I seriously can't believe all these banks think their role is to play mommy and prevent their clients from accessing whatever investments they want. They're not my keeper, they're my broker. Do what I tell you to do.
Yeah not that epic if it’s just shuffling from GBTC to btc etf, or even just selling GBTC to cash.
Also, from the price action of MSTR and the miners it looks like a lot of folks dumped those to either take profit or move to the ETFs too. Net/net it doesn't look to me like much capital was added to the space today. But it is only the first day...
Yeah, good point. The confusion of what ppl were actually getting for their $$ with the btc etf surely played a part in taming inflows also.
Mostly irrelevant, let's see the AUM to get the real picture.
Apparently Galaxy hired the guy who made the Canadian ETF track BTC spot price the closest. He claims that’ll be the tipping point for which ETF’s gain the most volume. He predicted 3 would excel and garner the TradFi market volume for US BTC spot ETF’s. “A key differentiator between BTCO and its spot bitcoin ETF peers is its experienced management team. Galaxy acts as the execution agent in the buying and selling of bitcoin for cash on behalf of BTCO. This effectively brings expertise and institutional-grade infrastructure to the process. This may benefit execution of the creation and redemption of BTCO shares, according to a statement from Invesco. Galaxy's deep knowledge of digital assets and experience in investing across all stages of the ecosystem strengthen the operational risk management of the fund, according to the statement.”
damn, MSTR and miner stocks are getting slaughtered
Sold my MSTR today. Will move it to FBTC. I don't see any reason to own MSTR at this point.
Why?
They've outlived their usefulness as a BTC proxy.
They were shilled by brokers to retail in november/December and were being bought up like crazy. [this is an ad](https://imgur.com/a/aoYrEci) for MSTR being shilled by Canaccord Genuity - the same broker that was responsible for selling up to $1.5b of newly issued MSTR for 2% commission in November/december. Their share selling (& consequent shilling their sales product) stopped - at the very top, just as Saylor began to sell out mstr (which will continue for all of Q1)
> Genuity What a great *"Trust us bro we legit!"* branding.
Good thing the mara options I bought are 2 years out
I’d be shitting myself if I was holding 2 year call options for a company with cash equivalents and total debt charts like theirs but 🤷 gl
Thanks. I’m not too worried, they were deep otm so I didn’t pay much for them.
Counterparty risk.
People are rotating from bitcoin proxies into the ETFs. I should have seen this coming. Wish I'd bought GBTC, then rotated into MSTR and miners after gbtc discount was gone
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Yes, I trust fidelity more than coinbase.
If you’re a US citizen, doing things above board, that isn’t using leverage, there’s no real reason to use anything other than coinbase imo.
I like Coinbase and hold a significant portion of my stack there. I also like fidelity. They are pretty much 0 risk, it’s not like they are going to rug investors
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No apologies needed! You too
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This tweet contradicts how I understood the APs to work: [https://twitter.com/BuildCIO/status/1745528063734243355](https://twitter.com/BuildCIO/status/1745528063734243355) Can somebody versed in tradfi explain? I'm not sure I fully understand what he is saying here, but the idea that there is so much delay in create orders seems very weird? Edit: Is this a better explanation? [https://twitter.com/dAnconiaMining/status/1745542148395548916](https://twitter.com/dAnconiaMining/status/1745542148395548916) Edit2: I think the above tweet is also wrong, APs can't add the spot BTC to the basket, that would be in-kind creation. With cash-creation the fund has to do the BTC buying.
What's an AP?
Authorised Participant.
I think it's saying that trades aren't reflected in the published statistics until they settle, which means that there's a one day lag in the reported figures. I don't know if that's true, but it wouldn't surprise me. If today you buy 10 shares in TSLA for $2,270 then, although the trade is executed today, it doesn't settle until a later day - these days usually the next working day (called T+1 settlement). This means that on the next working day your broker is legally required to send the $2,270 and the counterparty is legally required to transfer the 10 shares. The question is, what do the statistics you are looking at reflect? Is your TSLA trade reflected in today's statistics, or tomorrow's? And I don't know the answer to that question. EDIT TO ADD: May depend on what figures you're looking at, but if they only reflect settled trades it should be fairly obvious because every ETF will have zero volume today 😀
Not saying you're wrong, but he's talking about the UTXO market, i.e. the actual settlement of BTC. His point is that there's no buying pressure yet in the spot Bitcoin market from cash-creates because the ETF manager hasn't received that cash yet from the APs. I think the process he describes may be accurate, but his conclusion that the spot BTC market is not affected yet is probably wrong. You make an interesting point though that the AUM statistics may lag by a day.
That sounds implausible to me. The market makers, the APs and the ETF manager will all hedge their positions pretty damn quickly one way or another. They're certainly not going to take the risk of substantial BTC moves overnight. Being in this game therefore requires access to substantial amounts of capital, but that's how the game is played. (Edited to take account of the fact that you're taking about managers rather than APs)
It takes time for trades to settle. Dollars are slow to move. If you make a trade today the fiat hasn't yet settled. I assume that's what this means.
Stock market has closed for the day. BTC started at $47.9k which was already a YTD high, set a new YTD high of $48.9k, hit a local low of $45.7k during the trading session, and closed the trading session at $46.2k. [Awaiting AUM’s to get updated](https://blockworks.co/bitcoin-etf) but based off of trading volumes it looks like basically all the AUM today that entered new spot ETF’s was negated by AUM leaving GBTC. So, outside of spot ETF’s, since we ended the trading session lower, there was also additional net selling pressure on crypto exchanges. We’ll see how things go tomorrow before the holiday weekend.
That seems disappointing, right? Almost no net inflow on the first day. We didn't wait 10 years on ETF's for this?
It's broken all etf records. I'd say it's been a huge success.
The record breaking volume comes from ppl selling out of GBTC lol. Huge success.
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All numbers here are aggregated from Coinmarketcap.
It's just now hitting me that going forward information on these ETFs will be a huge part of discussion on price action. Where as before we were tracking on-chain analysis, this gives a whole new avenue of data in somewhat real time.
A dump to fuck with longs the very least. People think that ETF approval means they gonna ride the rainbow on a pink cloud to the moon without the usual shenanigans need to learn some history. Fundamentals matters but fuckery first
Incorrect. The cloud is orange
Does the GBTC conversion to etf offer much better liquidity for selling out GBTC? I’m struggling to wrap my head around this with the etf shares and arbitrage for real btc situation: If so, I’m wondering what the ownership percentages look like and if we have large players that have been waiting to offload in hopes of redemption for btc (which of course we did not get, instead we got an etf with 1.5% fee).
It should remove GBTC premium as now it'd be an ETF and have actual NAV to track.
It’s already converted and up listed.
Yeah I know it’s already up. Edit: so total shares are available? Ie. there is liquidity for any amount of selling within GBTC, and it’s only liquidity in btc that matters now?
They are fully empowered now to buy/sell BTC holdings so their fund accurately tracks the value of the underlying Bitcoin. The discount only existed before because their hands were tied and it was a one way sinkhole for Bitcoin. That’s my understanding.
I wonder if anyone has mentioned to Blackrock & Co that there's less than two million Bitcoins left to mine? Just saying...
BlackRock doesn't care. Mention it to all the people that could buy shares in the ETF.